Latest / Strictly Business / The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw
Transcript
- 0:00You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
- 0:05JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.
- 0:08And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Clough, Portfolio Manager at PSG
- 0:15Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
- 0:17Now, in a few hours time, Skulk, way beyond the scope of this podcast, unless
- 0:22you're feeling really chatty,
- 0:24the US Federal Reserve will announce its decision.
- 0:25on interest rates in the United States.
- 0:27Now this is of course important because it's anticipated so much by the market and
- 0:34also in the macro sense it
- 0:36is the price of money in the world's largest economy.
- 0:37Now here's my scenarios.
- 0:40They cut rates by 25 basis points because they're quite conservative.
- 0:44Everyone's expecting that and I'm a bullish person so I say cut this very
- 0:49fantastic.
- 0:51This means that there's probably going to be two more, given what Mr Powell said,
- 0:56because he makes his comments, you know,
- 0:58actually before the decision.
- 0:58No, it's not.
- 0:59It's after.
- 1:00I can't remember.
- 1:00No, he's before.
- 1:02He's made his comments anyway, whenever it is.
- 1:04And they're fairly dovish.
- 1:06So we're expecting more cuts.
- 1:08So this is great for growth stocks.
- 1:10We'll just carry on buying, never mind Nvidia being banned from selling its chips
- 1:17in China and all that sort of thing,
- 1:19and never mind stagflation.
- 1:21And never mind tariffs, we're going to sweep that all under the carpet.
- 1:22It's cheap money we're looking for, so buy the market.
- 1:26He cuts by 50 basis points instead of 25.
- 1:30And the bulls say, fantastic, it's even cheaper money.
- 1:34Trump is having his effect on the US Federal Reserve.
- 1:37There's political influence here.
- 1:39This will continue.
- 1:40Great, we'll buy the market even more.
- 1:42And the market goes to all-time record highs.
- 1:45Tonight and...
- 1:47In the ensuing days.
- 1:48That's the bullish argument.
- 1:50Bearish argument, they raise, sorry, cut rates by 25 basis points.
- 1:55They say, oh, it's all in the market.
- 1:57Let's sell.
- 1:58This is all anticipated.
- 1:59Let's sell this thing because it is a little bit overpriced.
- 2:03They cut by 50 basis points.
- 2:06The bears say, goodness me, they must know something that we don't.
- 2:11This stagflation thing is obviously taking a hold.
- 2:13The job market must be worse than expected.
- 2:16And yeah, inflation is going to pick up, but there's a political influence of 50
- 2:21basis points.
- 2:23I'm scared I'm going to sell.
- 2:25So you can convince yourself anyway is what I'm trying to say in a long winded
- 2:28way.
- 2:29Yeah.
- 2:29You convince yourself with any argument will work, in other words.
- 2:36Good evening, Lindsay.
- 2:37Hello, Skelk.
- 2:38I forgot you were there for a moment.
- 2:40To all the listeners, that was quite the intro.
- 2:44Basically, I think you've explained pretty much the conundrum we're sitting with.
- 2:49Because on the one side, we're going to hear good news tonight,
- 2:54regardless of what the outcome.
- 2:56I mean, a quarter of a basis point, 50 basis points.
- 3:01Currently, if we look at the CME tool and we listen to what Paul said over recent
- 3:06weeks, we're going to see the cut.
- 3:08We're going to see the cut in the next few hours.
- 3:09And yeah, that's going to be the step one.
- 3:13You're right.
- 3:14I absolutely back your second scenario by saying that if we see 50 basis points, and
- 3:21we've had this conversation,
- 3:23I think, two, three weeks ago where nobody put any probability of a 50 basis points
- 3:25cut.
- 3:27We had this scenario where we said, you know, don't be surprised.
- 3:31I mean, people are saying, well,
- 3:32the market are trading at ridiculous levels and sooner or later,
- 3:38the music is going to stop.
- 3:41And that's going to be a problem.
- 3:43And I said, well, I agree, but if we see a half a basis points,
- 3:48we might see that push higher before we see the drop lower.
- 3:52And I agree with you.
- 3:54I absolutely agree with you.
- 3:55I think 50 basis points would most probably be seen as good news is bad news.
- 4:02Because why would they I mean, they've waited this long.
- 4:08And to Trump's point, let's say Trump for a second is right, because he said, you
- 4:13know,
- 4:13Powell was way too late to start raising your rates,
- 4:18and he's now way too late cutting it again.
- 4:23You're not going to make up for time by cutting half a percent.
- 4:26If he goes into this gradually now, I think at least inflation will be under
- 4:32control.
- 4:33Trump is saying that the economy most probably won't be, but at least inflation
- 4:40will be under control,
- 4:42according to Powell.
- 4:44But I must say, if he cuts half a percent, I think that's going to be desperation.
- 4:48And to your point?
- 4:50That is political interference to the highest, highest degree.
- 4:54Yes, the other thing that hasn't really been explored in either of our
- 5:00explanations is
- 5:02the state of the market at the moment.
- 5:04If the market was middling along at reasonable valuations, so what?
- 5:07If it was really low, you'd say, goodness me, a cut is going to boost this market
- 5:13from a low base.
- 5:15When it's so elevated, there's your problem if you're a bull.
- 5:17That is your problem.
- 5:19Do you buy NVIDIA at 170?
- 5:22Do you buy, I don't know, what are the other ones that are doing well in the
- 5:26United States?
- 5:28Oh, Tesla's gone berserk recently.
- 5:29What is it, 420 now, Tesla?
- 5:32Something like that, Scott?
- 5:34Yeah, yeah, it has gone berserk.
- 5:36As we sit here, it's...
- 5:39You're talking about the market cap?
- 5:40What are you talking about?
- 5:41No, the actual price in US dollars.
- 5:44It's trading at 170 US dollars.
- 5:46What am I talking about then?
- 5:48Tesla.
- 5:50Tesla, yeah, yeah.
- 5:51Tesla has just shot 415 US dollars down today.
- 5:55Yeah.
- 5:55But I mean...
- 5:56It was 422, I think, yesterday.
- 5:58And at the low after Liberation Day, I think it was...
- 6:02And also with what's-his-name being kicked out of the White House,
- 6:08it was something like 225, 220 to 225.
- 6:14So that's a $200 a share rally.
- 6:15Mr.
- 6:16Musk has been buying the stock, and on one day, I think, he bought a billion dollars
- 6:22worth.
- 6:22It was announced that he'd bought a billion dollars worth.
- 6:25So that got the bulls going as well.
- 6:27Goodness knows why, because, you know, just because he's buying doesn't mean to
- 6:34say that they're going to sell more of their overpriced cars.
- 6:36First time that he's buying, I mean, yeah.
- 6:39And I think he had a tweet saying, as they forecast it, or after his...
- 6:45boards.
- 6:45I mean, that was just a crazy one.
- 6:48I mean, he's had his run-ins with the SEC
- 6:56where they slapped him and said, well, you are mighty close to doing things like
- 7:02front running.
- 7:04I just think he's tickling the lines
- 7:09behind again here by doing these things.
- 7:11But yeah, $1 billion.
- 7:14A year worth of Tesla shares.
- 7:16Yeah, no, it's a crazy market.
- 7:19Lindsay, I think it most probably will get crazier because
- 7:25I think tonight the prudent thing will be for Paul just to come in and cut a quarter
- 7:31of a percent.
- 7:33He didn't succumb to any pressures earlier,
- 7:36let's call it in President Trump's presidency up to now.
- 7:43And I wouldn't succumb now.
- 7:44I'd just continue, stay the course, and that's it.
- 7:49And I think that would most probably be the best outcome for markets over the next
- 7:54day or two.
- 7:56If it just comes through tonight, announce the quarter of a percentage,
- 7:59announce that we would most probably see another quarter of a percentage.
- 8:03He will never say another quarter of a percentage, but he will most probably
- 8:09indicate the likelihood of a further cut.
- 8:11at the next meeting will be higher, then I think markets will take it as positive.
- 8:15Yes, yes, they will.
- 8:17Is there money waiting in the wings?
- 8:19There probably is.
- 8:20They'll find it somewhere.
- 8:21But anyway, it's going to be a fascinating time.
- 8:23And so I shall be glued to my television set briefly around about 8.15
- 8:30this evening, South African time.
- 8:32Let's have a look at South Africa now, because we spoke about Woolworths, didn't
- 8:37we, a while back?
- 8:39Yeah.
- 8:41And today the share price up 4%.
- 8:43Why it's up 4% I don't know.
- 8:45Maybe because of the retail sales number that came out from South Africa of a 5.6%
- 8:48gain.
- 8:50Is that the reason why?
- 8:52Yeah, I don't know.
- 8:54I think there was some podcast a few weeks ago of a very,
- 8:57very highly regarded radio show, Strictly Business.
- 9:03Oh, you think it's… They interviewed a highly regarded fund manager,
- 9:11Mr.
- 9:12Bickard, and I think that sort of got the ball rolling.
- 9:16And today… Today we had another announcement.
- 9:19The announcement came through today that I think it was Coronation.
- 9:25Coronation announced that they are also buying Woolworths.
- 9:30Look at that.
- 9:31Interesting stuff.
- 9:33Yeah, here we go.
- 9:36We received formal notification that Coronation Asset Management, on behalf of
- 9:41its clients,
- 9:41has acquired in aggregate an interest in the ordinary shares of the company, blah,
- 9:47blah, blah, to the amount of FAP.
- 9:49percent of the total issued there we go yes notification in terms of section 122
- 9:54in brackets three of the companies act
- 9:56there we go see you got the ball rolling you got the ball rolling well you know we
- 10:01do what we can here at
- 10:03strictly business podcast in in the five o'clock shadow uh more
- 10:05seriously let's have a look at another one as well momentum uh annual results for the
- 10:10year ended
- 10:1030th of june share price bucking the trend going down in other words down 0.7 percent
- 10:16momentum.
- 10:18Do you look at this company?
- 10:18Yeah, I do look at the company.
- 10:21Lindsay, it's sort of a sweet and sour announcement.
- 10:25So let's just get the most important thing.
- 10:28Did I think the results look bad in any shape or form?
- 10:34No, it actually looked pretty good.
- 10:37Listeners will ask them, why did we see a retracement in the price?
- 10:41Well, they already guided.
- 10:44gave a trading statement a week or two ago.
- 10:47So we're pretty sure what to expect out of the results.
- 10:54So for those who didn't see the results, the normalized headline earnings,
- 11:01that was up 41%.
- 11:02So that was really good.
- 11:06Headline earnings were up 50%.
- 11:08Basic EPS up 57%.
- 11:10One that stood out for me, more important, because
- 11:14We know that they bought back about 2 billion rands worth of shares.
- 11:20Now, that's a crazy amount.
- 11:21I mean, again,
- 11:24this is where the sweet and sour comes through because when a company announced
- 11:30that they've bought back,
- 11:32especially bought back 2 billion rands worth of shares, I say, well, that's a
- 11:37right mark and a wrong mark.
- 11:39Right mark in the sense that, yes, they've got the confidence of the company.
- 11:43And if they've got the confidence of the company to buy their own shares, then as
- 11:49shareholders, and I'm not a shareholder,
- 11:51as shareholders, you should feel more comfortable still holding your share or
- 11:55even buying more.
- 11:57My question is usually, isn't there anything else to be buying?
- 11:59I mean, we're sitting a year later.
- 12:03Clearly not.
- 12:04No.
- 12:05The South African market, given, predominantly driven by the likes of
- 12:11commodity stocks and...
- 12:13and also NASPAS process.
- 12:15But the South African market has been under pressure for many years,
- 12:22trading at low valuations.
- 12:24And that just means as a company,
- 12:26they can't find any other acquisitions and other opportunities to buy than rather buy
- 12:33the company back.
- 12:35And I think Sheldon's, they've got a lot of, there's quite a few companies out
- 12:40there that's doing acquisitions, taking their money,
- 12:42taking their cash.
- 12:44looking for other opportunities.
- 12:46And I think therein might be a reason why we see a bit of a retracement.
- 12:47The shareholders just felt, no, it was good, but what's the upside?
- 12:54Well, the upside is, I suppose, apart from the share buybacks, which always helps an
- 12:59existing shareholder,
- 13:01the company is doing okay.
- 13:02I mean, look at this.
- 13:02It says, in a tough market, it says here, this is the introduction.
- 13:07Someone got a bit enthusiastic.
- 13:09with their words, a momentum group delivered a remarkable set of results.
- 13:13Not a good set of results, not an excellent set of results, not a good set
- 13:18of results given the circumstances,
- 13:20but a remarkable set of results they delivered.
- 13:22That's going a bit far, isn't it?
- 13:25Yeah, you buy your own shares back then.
- 13:28Well, the actual EPS, headline EPS, and those things should look remarkable.
- 13:33It was good.
- 13:34I mean, to me, the most important thing was the embedded value per share.
- 13:4042 and 51, that's up 15%.
- 13:45That's the most important thing when I look at a life insurer is the embedded
- 13:51value of the
- 13:53company.
- 13:55And if the embedded value...
- 13:57of the company, less remarkable.
- 13:5915% is still good.
- 14:01Maybe just less remarkable.
- 14:03My point is I want to see and I want to hear more.
- 14:06Because they mentioned, they mentioned the inflationary environment.
- 14:12They mentioned the economic growth.
- 14:14They mentioned the jobs uncertainty.
- 14:17Because when people lose their jobs, Lindsay, and we've had a few.
- 14:22companies closing plants.
- 14:25There's been some job losses in Africa lately being in the news.
- 14:33I mean, the first thing that these people usually do is they switch off their
- 14:39metropolitan
- 14:41life insurance or momentum RA because they need to eat.
- 14:44I mean, they lost their jobs, which is really, really unfortunate.
- 14:47So I think...
- 14:50It shows me that Metropolitan, they're looking at that,
- 14:55and they are maybe a bit on the cautious side, which is not always a bad thing.
- 15:01Not always a bad thing.
- 15:03Okay, that's momentum.
- 15:04There's another one.
- 15:04They're going to buy another billion rand, or they applied to buy a further one
- 15:11billion rand.
- 15:13coming financial year.
- 15:15And yet the share price down 0.7% so someone sees something that they don't
- 15:17like.
- 15:17Now have a look at this one because it came out at eight o'clock this morning.
- 15:20It's not something you look at a lot I wouldn't imagine.
- 15:23Metrophile Holdings Limited.
- 15:25Share price caught your eye up 14.25% as I look at it.
- 15:29But one of the more interesting reasons or probably for me the most interesting
- 15:36reason is it's a joint firm intention announcement
- 15:38from the company in respect of an offer to acquire...
- 15:39All of the issued ordinary shares in Metro file, another delisting from the JSC.
- 15:44In other words, should it go through, Skulk?
- 15:47Yeah, yes, it is crazy.
- 15:50I mean, that's my point.
- 15:53I mean, what I made earlier, you know,
- 15:55besides if you strip out the likes of the commodity stocks,
- 16:01gold stock specifically, and you strip out the likes of Process, NASPAS, then...
- 16:08And the JSE, I mean, these companies are still trading at great valuations.
- 16:12I mean, if you look at our banks, and they've brought a solid set of results.
- 16:19Yet, if you compare their performances in 2025 to the JSE,
- 16:25you can see they are seriously, seriously lagging.
- 16:28Quite a bit of retracement, some of these banks.
- 16:30It just shows you that there's companies that's not really catching the eye of...
- 16:37international investors.
- 16:38And that just puts some of these companies in a position to say, well, like
- 16:44Metropolitan, Momentum,
- 16:46let's buy back some of our own shares.
- 16:48Like Metrophile saying, well, let's just buy back our own company.
- 16:50It's trading at good enough valuations, and there we go, another company going to
- 16:55delist it from the JSC.
- 16:57It's sad to a certain extent.
- 16:58I mean, we've lost a few great names over the years, and, yeah,
- 17:03I hope the interest comes back in the JSC.
- 17:07We don't lose all our good stocks.
- 17:09All we need now is a government that delivers fiscally while the South African
- 17:16Reserve Bank delivers monetarily and everything's fine.
- 17:18The first one, yeah, okay, we won't talk about politics.
- 17:21Any other corporate news in South Africa before we go to the markets, please,
- 17:24Skalk?
- 17:25No, I think Premier Foods, that was another one that brought out results.
- 17:32Or Trading Studies, more specifically.
- 17:35They brought a trading statement for the six-month end of September. For the
- 17:42listeners out there who don't know Premier Foods,
- 17:44they've got the likes of Impala and Blue Ribbon, Dove Soap and Snowflake, very,
- 17:49very well-known food brands.
- 17:52And they mentioned that their headline earnings per share is set to increase
- 17:58anything between 20%
- 18:00and 30%.
- 18:02Now, that out of the market, we're really, really excited.
- 18:03As mentioned, the share price up 6.2%.
- 18:06I just quickly had a look and just to see what
- 18:13Bloomberg, the consensus, Bloomberg,
- 18:15they've got the EPS or the headline earnings per share
- 18:22forecasted for this period at just over 11 rand.
- 18:2611 Rand per share.
- 18:28Now, if you take it from the previous year, that's about a 23% increase in
- 18:34headline earnings per share.
- 18:36So this trading statement looks, what was that word you had earlier?
- 18:39Marvelous or?
- 18:41Remarkable.
- 18:42Remarkable.
- 18:44The trading statement did look remarkable, stating 20 to 30% growth in headline
- 18:49earnings per share.
- 18:51But that's pretty much what Bloomberg's currently got as consensus.
- 18:55Is that bad?
- 18:56No, that's not bad.
- 18:57What stood out for me in the trading statement, really interesting,
- 19:01was where they mentioned the deflationary environment for the softer commodities.
- 19:06Now, for a company, producing bread,
- 19:11naturally a deflationary environment for softer commodities like, for instance,
- 19:17wheat, will be positive.
- 19:19I mean, if you see wheat prices, which it did, drop by 7% over the past 12 months,
- 19:24if you look at sugar.
- 19:25which a lot of premier groups products use.
- 19:29If you look at the sugar price over the past 12 months, that's dropped over 25%.
- 19:37And we can continue.
- 19:38There's quite a few of these other soft commodities, which they mentioned.
- 19:43The soft commodity deflationary environment definitely helped the company.
- 19:48Not cocoa, though.
- 19:49Not cocoa.
- 19:49That's been going up, but they probably don't use cocoa products.
- 19:53Just for interest sake, cacao over the past 12 months is down 5%.
- 19:59Yeah, coffee, coffee on the other hand, that's up 53%.
- 20:03But cacao, cacao is down over the past 12 months.
- 20:06I saw a recent rally in it.
- 20:09So the 5% must be over, obviously over a longer period.
- 20:13But the recent move has been to the upside.
- 20:15Coffee prices, well, goodness me, even I started drinking coffee.
- 20:19I'm a very good, when I stopped drinking.
- 20:22The shares of Diageo went plunging, I think it was.
- 20:25But let's not talk about that.
- 20:27I want to do another quick informal survey.
- 20:29Keep on walking.
- 20:30Keep on walking.
- 20:31Given the fact that it's Retail Sales Day in South Africa, do a quick informal
- 20:37retail survey now, Skyle.
- 20:39Are you a shower gel or soap man in the shower?
- 20:42I'm actually going to go one step further.
- 20:44I am a premier group man.
- 20:47I am a dove soap man.
- 20:48So am I.
- 20:49I'm a dove.
- 20:50It's the right shape for your body, isn't it?
- 20:52It's just perfect.
- 20:53It feels so perfect in your hand.
- 20:55Yeah.
- 20:56I love the quality.
- 20:57I'm with you.
- 20:57And I'll even take it one step further,
- 21:02that sheer body butter flavoured one.
- 21:05Oh, man.
- 21:06I haven't seen that.
- 21:06I just used the traditional white one.
- 21:09Yeah, that's my default if I don't find the sheer body butter one, but go pamper
- 21:15yourself.
- 21:17I've got to write this one down.
- 21:19I think I should check the dove range.
- 21:21It just shows you, you get set in your ways.
- 21:22Okay, that's the retail survey over.
- 21:25Let's go to, should we go to the markets?
- 21:26Let's go to the markets because the round is lovely.
- 21:28I love the round at 1736 against the US dollar with the dollar on the, we'll see
- 21:35in a minute, euro dollar,
- 21:37for example.
- 21:39But the dollar is on a slippery slope and you love that dollar index.
- 21:40You'll tell us what it is in a moment.
- 21:42But anyway, the dollar round, 1736, that's a near 2% gain or loss rather for the
- 21:49dollar.
- 21:49against the RAND.
- 21:50The British pound against the RAND, 23.73, barely changed, and barely changed against
- 21:56the euro as well,
- 21:58which is 20.58.
- 21:58It's the dollar RAND that's doing it.
- 22:00Euro dollar, 1.1850.
- 22:02The euro nearly 2% higher against the dollar in the last 24 hours.
- 22:07Remarkable stuff.
- 22:08Let's use that word remarkable again.
- 22:10British pound against the US dollar, 1.3665, with the 1.9% higher.
- 22:16Now then, The gold price went shooting through 3700 yesterday.
- 22:20And it thought, wait a second, I don't like it here.
- 22:22Even though one of the major U.S.
- 22:25investment banks has bravely announced that this gold price target is now 4000.
- 22:31It's not exactly the bravest thing.
- 22:33I'd love to be a gold analyst at one of these banks and just say, excuse me, boss,
- 22:39let's make it 4000.
- 22:41And they'll say, certainly, Williams, off you go.
- 22:43And good luck with your Christmas bonus.
- 22:45Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
- 22:47Platinum price down 19 to 13.83.
- 22:47Palladium down 11 to 11.89 dollars per ounce.
- 22:51Now the all-important other commodities.
- 22:54Let's have a look at the oil price and of course the copper price because it's so
- 23:00important for a couple of South African interests.
- 23:02Now crude oil in the United States, West Texas, is down 0.7%
- 23:05to $64.09 a barrel and Brent crude oil down two-thirds of a percent to
- 23:10$68.04.
- 23:12for the copper price.
- 23:13is very similar to what it was the other day, actually, which was $4.58 per pound.
- 23:20It's now $4.57 per pound, but in the last 24 hours,
- 23:24down 1.4%.
- 23:27Okay, the South African Tenure Bond, this is a hell of a story this year.
- 23:31It's now 9.17%, another 6.5 basis points weaker.
- 23:37Again, remarkable stuff, and it's all because of the RAND.
- 23:39We don't...
- 23:40We're importing relative deflation compared to what we would do if it was
- 23:471850.
- 23:49US 10-year, 404, we'll call that one.
- 23:49So it doesn't like being below 4%.
- 23:51It has been there a couple of times in the last few days.
- 23:54S&P 500 futures ahead of the Fed.
- 23:57Barely changed at 6,664.
- 24:00And that's the December futures.
- 24:02We switch from September to December.
- 24:04They do it quarterly.
- 24:06And what else can I say?
- 24:08The Bitcoin price.
- 24:09It is bobbing along at 115,657.
- 24:15Scout, what were the moves on the JSC today, please?
- 24:17And I'll give you mine afterwards.
- 24:20We've mentioned a few companies already that was moving and shaking,
- 24:24but let's look at them.
- 24:28So for a lot of people, there's been some ex-diffs.
- 24:31So Life Healthcare did not drop by 0.9% today.
- 24:34There was a massive, massive dividend that's been spent out of that.
- 24:38So no need to worry about that one.
- 24:43Cup, that was down 3.87%.
- 24:46Udeko down 3.2%.
- 24:50Yeah, so small companies, no big ones.
- 24:53I think the biggest mover on the downside was Richemont.
- 24:58But again, that is a dividend story.
- 25:02So ex-dividend story, 2.6% down.
- 25:05Then if we look at the upside, Oceana, they had a bad dish day yesterday,
- 25:11but also brought out some results.
- 25:14It looked like they struggled, but the market clearly expected them to do way
- 25:19worse.
- 25:20But the share price today, after the announcement, 6.7% up.
- 25:24Devon Riddipoer, deep, 4.2% up.
- 25:27Carew, 3.4%.
- 25:29The one that we mentioned, Woolies, 3.3% up.
- 25:33And Supergroup was up 2.7%.
- 25:37I think we just need to just go number 6 as well.
- 25:41Because as mentioned earlier, when process...
- 25:45is up 2.5%, 2.6%, and NASPA is up 2.5%.
- 25:50You know, that's the perfect environment for the JSE.
- 25:54Indeed.
- 25:55So, yeah, that was the ups and downs.
- 25:57Okay, and talking about 3.3%, which was the move to the upside for Woolies after
- 26:03its coronation announcement,
- 26:05the South African...
- 26:07And CPI data came out today, which I've neglected to report, which I'm going to
- 26:10correct now,
- 26:12because the South African CPI rate, that's the consumer price inflation rate, came
- 26:17down from 3.5%
- 26:19the previous month to 3.3%. So in the last three months, it's gone 3% to 3.5%,
- 26:243.5% to 3.3%. And that was one of the reasons as well why perhaps the bond rate
- 26:30is at
- 26:319.17%.
- 26:32That's the South African 10-year.
- 26:35And people are expecting that perhaps there will be another interest rate cut
- 26:42because of inflation coming down.
- 26:44Personally, I don't think so.
- 26:46I've got, yeah, let me give you mine.
- 26:48Premier up 6.2%.
- 26:50DoD Gold up 4.2%.
- 26:52Carew up 3.4%, let's call it.
- 26:54Woolies, we've done.
- 26:56Processor, we've done.
- 26:58Life Healthcare on the downside, we've done.
- 27:00You've done Richemont.
- 27:02Sappy down two and a third.
- 27:04Anglo's down nearly 2%.
- 27:06And Aspen down 1.9%.
- 27:08So that's what we've got, Skouk, apart from the closing JSC indices, if you
- 27:10would.
- 27:10Yeah, the JSC is over 105,000.
- 27:12105,368 points, that is up another 46 basis points today.
- 27:19Resources took a bit of a breather today, down 22 basis points.
- 27:23While the industrials, naturally, if you're going to have process NASPERS up
- 27:28with those amounts, you're going to have an
- 27:30Indy that will be flying.
- 27:31Indy It's up 1.1%, while the financial index was up 0.3%.
- 27:37Is it property?
- 27:37Also up 0.3%.
- 27:39And yeah, value traded through the market today.
- 27:42Let's quickly have a look.
- 27:43Value traded, quite a slow day.
- 27:46Oh, wait a minute.
- 27:47Now my screen is not updated.
- 27:49Oh, you see.
- 27:50Oh, wait, but make it quick.
- 27:52Yeah, okay.
- 27:53That's what you said.
- 27:57Yeah, yeah.
- 27:58That came back to bite me.
- 27:59So not that quiet.
- 28:01I thought we're going to be quiet.
- 28:02So as I refreshed it, it actually went above $20 billion.
- 28:07So it was actually $22 billion value traded for today.
- 28:09You asked for it earlier.
- 28:11I'm going to just give it a quick mention.
- 28:13Dollar index.
- 28:14Yeah, dollar index.
- 28:15Currently trading at 96.4.
- 28:19Now, that's quite interesting because it's slightly up, and you can see it's
- 28:24struggling to stay positive.
- 28:26We'll see.
- 28:28I think it pretty much doesn't matter.
- 28:29We will.
- 28:30quarter pass quarter pass i i promise you the the dixie won't be trading at the
- 28:37current level now this is what you want this is what
- 28:39you want you you've got a feeling in the back of your mind that something's going
- 28:44to happen there's going to be a bubble bursting somewhere but you don't want
- 28:46that to happen you secretly do because
- 28:47you you could you feel it yes you do i'm sorry you're fibbing you're fibbing to me
- 28:53it's gonna go i never never said
- 28:55which direction it's gonna go It could be 97, 98.
- 28:58I'm talking about the whole market.
- 29:00You've got a feeling that something's going to happen.
- 29:03I've got a feeling.
- 29:04Yeah, but you don't want it to happen.
- 29:05So what you want to happen is there to be a rate cut and a talk of future rate cuts
- 29:11as well.
- 29:11So the dollar falls further, so the gold price goes shooting up back above 3,700
- 29:18and on its way to infinity and
- 29:20beyond.
- 29:22Borrowing a word from Toy Story.
- 29:24Not to color this any further.
- 29:24I mean, I totally agree with you, Lindsay.
- 29:26We've had a market that's...
- 29:28grown more than 25%.
- 29:29I'm talking about a local market and even the offshore markets is now in that type
- 29:35of region.
- 29:37That's a very, very nice environment for all listeners, for all investors, for
- 29:42everyone.
- 29:44I just want us to just...
- 29:46Finish 2025 with this sort of just...
- 29:48It's September the 17th. You're already looking forward to your holiday.
- 29:54Wait, it's only the 17th of September.
- 29:57No, Al, then I'm taking that back.
- 29:58We're going to...
- 29:59All Al is going to break loose before the year ends.
- 30:02No, it's not.
- 30:02Everything's going to be fine.
- 30:04We know that.
- 30:05The algorithms, the clever chaps will write an algorithm that overrides whatever
- 30:10the Fed does.
- 30:12You know that, Skulk.
- 30:14Skulk, thank you very much for your time, as always, on a Wednesday.
- 30:14Skulk Lowe is a portfolio manager, PSG Wealth, Old Oak in Cape Town.
- 30:18And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.
- 30:20The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and
- 30:27various contributors and do not reflect the policy,
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