Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 144: Rain, Cool Temps, and What’s Next in the Weather Cycle with Gary Lezak

Transcript

144: Rain, Cool Temps, and What’s Next in the Weather Cycle with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

0:00
Welcome back to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
0:03
Today we are welcoming back once again Gary Lezak with the
0:07
Weather 2020 team. Gary comes on every single week
0:10
and shares throughout the weather and the long term
0:14
predictive weather that the Weather 2020 team puts together
0:17
with the LRC and everything that they do over there.
0:21
So let's go ahead and get into this episode with Gary where we
0:24
are talking all things the next few weeks.
0:26
What is happening in the weather pattern.
0:28
We are talking, remember that Blizzard we had in Kansas in the
0:31
middle of like beginning of January?
0:33
Well, that weather pattern is back and Gary is breaking down
0:36
what that is going to look like for us here in the Midwest, what
0:39
we can expect from that and what to expect over the coming weeks.
0:42
We sum up hurricane season, how slow it's been and what we can
0:46
find out more about that. So let's go ahead and get into
0:49
this podcast episode with Gary. But before we do, if you guys
0:51
could take a second to like subscribe, rate and review this
0:54
podcast. We really appreciate it here at
0:56
the team. It continues to help us reach
0:58
more people and just make a bigger impact on this amazing
1:01
cattle industry that we all love and adore.
1:03
So without further ado, let's go ahead and get into this episode
1:07
with Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
1:13
Podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
1:17
industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
1:20
today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
1:22
passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
1:25
informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
1:28
episode. Gary, welcome back to the
1:35
podcast. Morning or afternoon?
1:44
Yes, yes, you had. Hey, that was your perfect
1:47
redemption after your goggly one last week.
1:50
It was a beautiful good morning. Beautiful.
1:53
Yeah. Thank you.
1:56
Well, Gary, how's, how's life? How's what's going on in
1:59
Colorado? Life is good always for all of
2:01
us out there. Remember the four agreements.
2:05
So we are just right now, The Power of Now.
2:08
Also, there's two good books, The Power of Now and The Four
2:13
Agreements. You master those, you're going
2:15
to be happy. And it might take a lifetime to
2:18
get there, but just living in the now is amazing.
2:21
I went to Kansas City for a couple days last weekend.
2:25
I'm in Lake Tahoe, could be the eighth wonder of the world, and
2:30
I'm coming up over Mount Rose on Saturday morning after I rent my
2:36
car. Mount Rose is about 8900 feet up
2:41
and on its summit, but when you come down there it is this lake,
2:48
26 miles long, 12 miles wide. It'll take you hours to cross
2:54
the lake in a boat. It takes an hour and 15 minutes
2:57
or an hour and a half to cross the lake to take a drive around
3:02
the entire lake, which I highly recommend.
3:04
But it is so gorgeous and the weather is going to be in the
3:07
70s. It's going to be spectacular.
3:09
So and I get to visit my family, my my nephew is going to be
3:13
there. So that's exciting.
3:14
That is wonderful. I will say though, I maybe the
3:19
arguably the eighth wonder in the world in your mind, but my
3:21
husband and I this weekend are going to arguably one of the 8th
3:24
wonders in my mind and we're going to be in Banff this
3:28
weekend in Canada. And I, I know Lake Tahoe is
3:34
gorgeous, but I raise you Banff National Park is also really
3:39
gorgeous. I.
3:39
Heard. I heard.
3:41
Yeah. I had friends that were just
3:43
there. And so I and what you've told
3:46
me, what they've told me, it sounds beautiful.
3:50
Yes, I'm very, very excited. Vacation mode is already kind of
3:55
starting to turn on in my brain and I feel like I'm running
3:58
around a little ragged right now and screwing it on this morning.
4:01
Took an extra cup of coffee then maybe it normally would have,
4:04
but we're here and all the things.
4:07
Amazing. Have you checked the global
4:09
predictor for the forecast up there?
4:11
I did. I did check the global
4:13
predictor. I checked the global predictor
4:14
for the podcast months ago, Gary.
4:17
That's right, I'm on. It I'm on it, I had to book our
4:23
like in order to get to 2 of the lakes, you have to book shuttles
4:26
to get up there. Like you can't drive up there
4:28
anymore. And these shuttles sell out
4:30
really quickly and they're really expensive to like go up.
4:33
Just like I wanted to make sure that we went up on a day that
4:35
was going to be nice. And so I used it for that to see
4:39
which day we were going to buck for.
4:40
And I will say very accurate. The 10 day forecast is out and
4:44
it has been very accurate thus far.
4:46
No rain is in the forecast. It's going to be beautiful.
4:49
Highs in the 70s. Lows in the 40s.
4:51
That's incredible before, you know, we're at the time of the
4:55
year where it can change up there fast.
4:57
Yes, it will as a potential to change very quickly, but I'm so
5:01
excited. I packed my like heavier, not my
5:04
heavy heavy coat, but like my heavier coat for this trip.
5:08
I'm so excited. I haven't touched that thing in
5:09
months. I'm so ready to get out of this
5:12
Kansas heat. It is going to be wonderful.
5:14
I wore more my heavy coat this morning.
5:17
You are also in a climate that is a little cooler in the
5:19
mornings than we are quite yet. It's been a little chilly, but
5:24
not quite as cold as Colorado has gotten.
5:25
Recently it's cloudy and it's been raining.
5:28
It's rained five straight days here when we needed the rain
5:30
here in Golden, Co But there is a very fascinating weather
5:34
pattern that has set up and. But yeah, so yeah, I wore the
5:37
heavy coat this morning. It was only 56°.
5:40
I'd probably didn't need it, but it was drizzling and sprinkling
5:43
too. So I thought it would be a good
5:45
idea to just wear the coat while I take the dogs out.
5:47
Yes. And well, and also going from
5:49
like 80° to like 50° is it's a big change.
5:53
Now if we're going from 30° to 50°, we're going to be out there
5:56
in our shorts thinking that this is like the middle of summer and
6:00
it's wonderful. But going from warm to cold,
6:02
we're like, where's my heavy coat?
6:04
I need it. No, just for a while, but yeah,
6:07
this would be a 56° is going to be a mild nice morning soon,
6:10
yes. Yes, it will be.
6:13
Speaking of the weather, what what's going on in the weather
6:15
right now, Gary? When you think I know something
6:18
about the weather. Just maybe I had a thought that
6:22
you might be the person to go to.
6:23
But I mean, we could throw it back to me and I can talk about
6:27
the weather. I don't know how insightful it's
6:30
going to be, but. Well, I'll give you my
6:33
expertise, what I've been actually doing some research
6:35
this week. It's very interesting, you know,
6:38
for a lot of you new to what the LRC is and a lot of you have
6:41
been listening to us for weeks or months or following me for
6:44
years or decades. The weather pattern is cycling
6:47
and to prove it mathematically. So that's called quantifiable
6:54
validation compared to qualitative quality.
6:59
Qualitative is sort of what the artist does.
7:02
They draw a piece of art and you can sort of see patterns and
7:06
that's what the qualitative technique is for meteorologists
7:10
around me. They, we even know if I can show
7:12
them the pattern is about a 41 day cycle and you can see the
7:17
pattern and then you show 41 days later and you see the
7:21
pattern again. And I see it as the same.
7:24
The meteorologist might not see that because they're not
7:26
necessarily the artist. The novice might not see that.
7:29
So we need to prove it mathematically.
7:32
If what I see is real that I've been looking at for 40 years and
7:36
if and being researched even longer than that and then it
7:39
will be, so it will be able to be proved out mathematically it
7:43
will be. I am very close to doing that.
7:46
So not only am I the meteorologist that we're going
7:50
to talk about the weather patterns that are going to
7:52
impact us between now and harvest and, and for cattle USA,
7:55
for the, for your dairy farms, etcetera, but also for just
8:01
validating that the pattern is cycling.
8:04
And what I tell you it is based on some sound science.
8:09
So I am doing the research, I'm running this business.
8:13
We have a couple sales guys going out there explaining what
8:17
we're doing that's better than everybody else and proving it
8:20
out I think is going to help us with that.
8:22
So, so basically this week we're this close, it might take a few
8:27
more months or this close to really showing the pattern.
8:32
Like for example, the Kansas City Blizzard, part of the
8:36
cycling weather pattern that happened January.
8:40
There was a Blizzard in Kansas City, 11 inches of snow.
8:45
I was there at the Van Trump Farm Con conference and Kevin
8:51
Van Trump runs that and he's a great guy and he's been learning
8:55
about the LRC. But while I was there there was
8:58
a severe weather outbreak and a Blizzard.
9:01
It's a 41 day cycle, so every 38 to 44 days centered on 41 days.
9:07
About every six weeks that part of the pattern has come back and
9:11
produced severe weather in each cycle.
9:16
So it's about 6 out of 875% likely that just knowing there
9:21
was a severe weather outbreak on January 5th and knowing the
9:23
cycle, you could predict it and you'd be 75% accurate, which is
9:27
good. So what I just discovered is
9:29
that we can show that now as the energy that's going to become
9:34
the Blizzard comes across the West Coast, we can show that it
9:38
comes across the West Coast of Seattle and San Francisco on day
9:42
zero and then three to four days later moves out and plans to
9:45
produce a Blizzard. But that happens in each cycle.
9:49
So the fact that it happens in each cycle every six weeks
9:53
proves the pattern is cycling. So how do I get that down into
9:57
mathematical equations? That's what I'm doing and that's
10:01
what I'm this close to doing anyway.
10:04
I got lost in the weeds there. Bottom line is that part of the
10:07
pattern, the January 5th part of the pattern is going to cycle
10:11
back through around the first week of September, coming up in
10:17
about within 10 days. That part of the pattern is
10:21
going to cycle through. And so that's sort of what we're
10:24
transitioning into right now. So it'll be interesting to see
10:28
if another severe weather setup occurs.
10:31
There won't be a Blizzard. It's going to be early
10:33
September, it's still summer. But just know that that part of
10:36
the pattern is coming back through and everything is right
10:38
on schedule for another few weeks.
10:40
The brand new LRC start setting up now it's beginning, but it
10:45
really kicks in the first week of October.
10:47
Are you sure there's not going to be a Blizzard, Gary?
10:49
We do live in Kansas here and it is known to, you know, be a
10:54
little wet and crazy. Probably thunderstorms with hail
10:57
blowing around. So there you go.
10:59
That would be close. OK, duly noted.
11:01
When we leave for our trip, we need to put the truck in the
11:04
garage. Got it.
11:06
The last time we left on a trip we left and we were driving to
11:10
Colorado. We were in western Kansas and a
11:12
hailstorm hit here and we had just bought our pickup like the
11:17
week prior and we got hail damage all over the pickup it.
11:20
Was. Unbelievable.
11:23
Unbelievable. We leave for vacation and it's
11:25
just got a hail here. All day.
11:27
Get ready. Now that increases the
11:30
probability. Exactly.
11:33
Yeah, right now, Lauren would. We're in a while.
11:36
We're talking, you know, a couple days before this airs on
11:39
Friday. But let me just tell you, it's
11:42
cloudy in Colorado. It's not just cloudy in
11:45
Colorado. It's cloudy and rainy from
11:48
Colorado and Wyoming in the desert southwest with some
11:53
monsoon moisture. And it's streaming over southern
11:57
and western Kansas. OK, Oklahoma's been in the 60s
12:01
in late August, 2 days in a row, which is just incredible.
12:05
And this pattern is going to continue for a couple more days.
12:08
By about Friday and Saturday, it's going to move on to the
12:10
South and sunshine's going to return.
12:13
And then we'll see that Blizzard, part of the pattern
12:15
start to approach. But it is what right now,
12:18
southern Kansas, western Kansas, a little corridor that's going
12:21
to possibly get too much rain and flash flooding is possible.
12:24
Farther northeast, Nebraska, Iowa and most of Missouri have
12:29
dried out significantly. And so for the soybeans, the
12:33
soybeans really could use a good drink of water here in the next
12:36
10 days, 15 days, I think it's going to happen.
12:40
I just know the there's two, there's two or three
12:43
opportunities for rain across areas that are drying out right
12:46
now in about a week. So about 7 days to 10 days from
12:51
now, a very good chance of a few thunderstorms tracking across
12:54
that area. That's the Blizzard part of the
12:56
pattern. So we'll see if it hits your,
12:59
your farm, your your crops to make that soybean because the
13:04
corn has been pretty much made. Corn prices are low because of
13:07
that. Soybeans still could use a drink
13:10
of water on some of these key locations, and I expect that in
13:14
the next 10 to 15 days. Good to know.
13:17
How is hurricane season going, Gary?
13:20
Well, on the Hurricane Aaron weather 2020 and the LRC
13:23
predicted that very well. It's it's related to another
13:27
cycle that had Chantal and these weather seats from last October.
13:31
So, so Aaron and Chantal and the Hurricanes and tropical systems
13:36
so far have been predicted and predictable.
13:39
However, it's quiet. There is one that's dying out
13:43
there right now for now, Fernand silent D for some reason.
13:48
It's but why they just had an L make it Fernando, but it's for
13:52
now for Fernand. And and if you're out there
13:55
named that way, make sure verify that it is a silent D.
13:59
But Fernand is dying. But that's just the 6th one of
14:02
the season OABCDEF that's six all.
14:06
We're just two weeks away from peak hurricane season and
14:08
there's no sign of anything developing.
14:11
So it appears my aggressive forecast weather 2020 is not
14:15
100% accurate because it appears it's going to be less active and
14:20
not more active this season. Yeah, as soon as I say that out
14:23
loud, it's probably going to get real active.
14:25
And then maybe I shouldn't have said that.
14:27
But right now there's no, that's what happens in the weather and
14:30
whatever. But you know, there's still
14:34
potential for for it to get more active.
14:40
But without a sign of it happening and peak hurricane
14:43
season approaching, maybe there's going to be 13 named
14:46
storms this season, not 17 to 23 like I predicted.
14:51
We've been the most accurate three years in a row, and I want
14:55
15 more storms to be right. But let me just tell you, it's
14:59
not looking like it. Good to know, good to know.
15:02
Anything else we need to hit on in the weather this week or for
15:07
the next couple months? Gary, anything else that we
15:09
should be touching on today? No, I just hope everyone's
15:13
enjoyed the cooler weather. Have you enjoyed the cooler
15:15
weather? Yes, the cooler weather has,
15:17
it's been such a blessing. I, I am so excited about it, But
15:21
I also know this is like our fake fall right where we get so
15:25
excited. I'm like, oh, I can get my
15:26
jackets out again. I cannot die of heat stroke when
15:30
I go outside. This is wonderful.
15:32
And then Kansas is going to slap me across the face come
15:36
mid-september and be like, Nope, here's your 110° day again, have
15:41
fun. So I'm trying to enjoy it while
15:43
it's here and not be pessimistic about the fact that it's not
15:46
here to stay. Well, we know it's going to warm
15:48
up again, but it's not going to be extremely hot.
15:50
In Kansas City, for example, the hottest temperature of the
15:53
entire summer was 96° and never got up above that.
15:56
So. So it might get back up to 1992
15:59
a couple times, but then fall is coming.
16:01
But yeah, this is this is a little brief taste of fall.
16:05
You can call it fake fall if you want to, but it's not fall.
16:09
But it feels like it a little bit, yes.
16:11
Yes. I am just very excited that it
16:13
is cool in Kansas this week. And then we're leaving this
16:17
weekend and we're going to be somewhere where it's even cooler
16:20
for another week. And so we get a little extended,
16:23
a little extended taste, but then we're going to come back
16:25
and it's going to be warm and we're going to be like, what the
16:27
heck, bring it on down. We can take some cooler
16:31
temperatures. And then I can't wait to hear
16:33
about this trip because, you know, maybe that's some place
16:35
for Andy and I should go. 100% I am so excited because we're
16:39
hitting up Banff National Park for six days and then we're
16:43
going down to Glacier. We're getting a rental car and
16:45
we're just driving. It's six hours from Banff to
16:47
Glacier. And so we're just going to cross
16:49
the border, go back into Montana, go to Glacier for the
16:53
rest of the trip, and then we'll head back up to Calgary on our
16:56
last day and we'll just still fly out of Calgary.
16:58
But Calgary's actually the closest like bigger airport to
17:02
Glacier. And so I was like, this just
17:03
works out because we're just going to hit two birds with one
17:06
stone and. No, that sounds great.
17:09
It sounds like a trip of a lifetime, actually.
17:11
That's great. Yes, we're so, so excited.
17:14
We decided early on in our marriage that we're like, we're
17:17
going to do anniversary trips instead of gifts.
17:19
And so this is our first one. And I can't believe personally
17:23
that we've been married for almost a year.
17:25
I looked at my husband the other night and was like how has it
17:27
been a year like. I know that's crazy and make it
17:32
a gift. Don't argue and stuff on the
17:34
trip now. No, we and we're not like those
17:37
people, just in. General and you're still moving
17:39
wedges. We're doing good.
17:41
Yes, we're still doing great. Still doing great.
17:43
The first year of marriage has treated us very well.
17:45
Yeah, No, the biggest argument that will come about is if we
17:48
don't feed ourselves and we get hangry because both of us be fed
17:53
at regular intervals. Otherwise we get hangry.
17:56
And so on all of our hikes I plan on bringing sandwiches and
18:00
snacks and I got us some some protein bars and some gels and
18:04
all the things for our longer. Very important, that.
18:06
We are well prepared. Yeah, this is fine.
18:10
Hangry is a big, big problem, no doubt about it.
18:14
Because Andy and I'll be on a trip when especially like the
18:18
first few years, we're like driving in Palm on the way to
18:21
Palm Springs or something. And it's like there's an exit
18:23
with the with, with the McDonald's or wherever we're
18:26
going to go eat. I go, oh, let's wait till the
18:27
next one. And then if you wait till the
18:29
next one and there isn't one for 26 miles, angry begins to
18:32
happen. Yes, Oh yes, the monster comes
18:35
out, that is. That is for sure.
18:38
We both like and honestly like my husband's a little bit more
18:42
of like a hangrier person than I am.
18:44
And it's hilarious because like the flip just switches and it's
18:48
we have, you have about 20 minutes from the time that one
18:51
of us says that we are hungry until like that hangry sets in
18:55
and then it's like all hell breaks loose.
18:57
Amazing. That's great.
19:00
Oh, yes, yes. So it will be a wonderful trip.
19:03
I can't wait to get back in a couple weeks and be able to
19:06
share all of it with everyone and share all of our insights
19:10
with you. I will be texting you all the
19:12
pictures to prove to you that, hey, you may think that Lake
19:17
Tahoe, it needs to be the eighth wonder, but I'm raising you.
19:19
I think Banff might need to be so.
19:21
We will compare pictures. We will compare pictures.
19:24
I think you might. You could win.
19:25
Wonderful, wonderful. Well, Gary, as always, thanks
19:29
for your time. Thanks for coming on and chit
19:32
chatting with me on this Wednesday and sharing more about
19:35
the weather, your insight, all of the things we are so grateful
19:38
for your partnership here. And to all of our listeners out
19:40
there, if you are interested in the things that Gary and I talk
19:43
about every week on here and you want more, make sure you check
19:46
out the show notes down below where I have all of Gary's
19:49
links. We have the Weather 2020
19:50
dashboard links. We have the Global Predictor
19:53
link, which is an app that you can get on your phone that is
19:56
only $5 a month and it is going to to give you that long term
20:00
weather predictive that you need that we were talking about
20:02
earlier on what I used to help plan us this trip to Banff and
20:07
get our vacation planned in the way that we needed it to.
20:10
So make sure you go check out those links down below and we
20:13
will see you all tomorrow on another episode.
20:15
Have a good one y'all.