Latest / The Morning Edition / Why young people are so angry about housing, and whether this budget will fix it

Transcript

Why young people are so angry about housing, and whether this budget will fix it · The Morning Edition

• 0:01
  S1: Hello and welcome to Inside Politics from the age and
• 0:04
  S1: The Sydney Morning Herald. I'm Jacqueline Maley, and today I
• 0:07
  S1: am joined, as usual by our chief political correspondent, Paul Chuckle.
• 0:11
  S1: And special guest star Drumroll, chief economics correspondent Shane Wright. Welcome, guys.
• 0:17
  S2: Good morning. Nice to get the salutation that I deserve.
• 0:20
  S2: Thank you.
• 0:21
  S1: Absolutely. That's your official title now, Shane. Shane. I feel
• 0:24
  S1: like we only get you on this podcast when there's
• 0:26
  S1: sort of bad news to deliver. There was inflation figures
• 0:29
  S1: out this week and it was pretty bad. Right? Tell
• 0:32
  S1: us how bad it is, doc.
• 0:34
  S2: Well, the frightening thing is it could have been worse. Look,
• 0:37
  S2: this is just a flesh wound, to paraphrase Monty Python.
• 0:41
  S1: So we should we shouldn't complain. Really?
• 0:43
  S2: Yeah. Stop your whinging. Uh, in fact, uh, marketplace has
• 0:47
  S2: actually downgraded the chance of an interest rate rise after
• 0:50
  S2: inflation came in at 4.6%. Not something you ordinarily see.
• 0:55
  S2: I'll put some of this in context. If oil prices
• 0:58
  S2: had not changed as opposed to going up by 33%,
• 1:02
  S2: inflation would have fallen to 3.4% in March. That's that's
• 1:08
  S2: the huge impact that we're seeing because of oil and
• 1:11
  S2: because of Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump and whoever whomever
• 1:16
  S2: is in charge of Iran at the moment, that's the
• 1:19
  S2: impact that everyone is feeling. And that was clearly evident
• 1:24
  S2: in these figures.
• 1:25
  S1: Yeah. Well, I read your story and it said that
• 1:27
  S1: there's been a 33% rise in petrol and diesel prices,
• 1:30
  S1: and that's even after the government has cut the fuel excise.
• 1:34
  S2: No, that's this is pre okay. This is pre because
• 1:37
  S2: you will.
• 1:38
  S1: Actually factor that in.
• 1:39
  S2: Yeah. You'll actually see inflation for petrol will fall in
• 1:42
  S2: April because of what the government's done around fuel excise.
• 1:47
  S2: But but anybody who knows who's been out shopping either
• 1:51
  S2: for for milk to gold to an overseas trip knows
• 1:55
  S2: that prices have gone up elsewhere in the in the
• 1:57
  S2: economy because of what's gone on through Iran.
• 2:00
  S1: And just in these month to month figures, are there
• 2:02
  S1: any are there any other sort of notable things we
• 2:03
  S1: should take note of? I think construction prices continue to
• 2:06
  S1: go like that looks pretty entrenched, that inflation in the
• 2:09
  S1: construction sector.
• 2:09
  S2: Yeah, that'd be the worry for the reserve Bank that
• 2:12
  S2: we're trying to build a lot of homes. Constructing homes
• 2:15
  S2: is fossil fuel intensive. Um, so there will be a lift.
• 2:19
  S2: There will be a continuing lift. The electricity price story
• 2:22
  S2: that we've had for the last 2 or 3 years,
• 2:24
  S2: electricity inflation fell to just 26% from 37%.
• 2:30
  S1: So can you unpack that for us? Because elsewhere we're
• 2:32
  S1: hearing that there's, you know, because of so many more
• 2:35
  S1: renewables in the grid, that electricity prices are starting to ease,
• 2:38
  S1: but they're still inflating just inflation at a slower rate.
• 2:42
  S2: This is because of all the subsidies that have come
• 2:44
  S2: out over the last 4 or 5 months. This federal
• 2:48
  S2: and state government subsidies, electricity inflation is still highest in
• 2:52
  S2: Brisbane at 4,144%. And that's because they had such large
• 2:56
  S2: subsidies up there, for instance. So you'll actually see electricity
• 2:59
  S2: prices negative from around the middle of the year. But
• 3:03
  S2: because of the way inflation is measured, it's just going
• 3:06
  S2: to take some time. Right. And another thing, one of
• 3:09
  S2: the big stories, big economic stories of the last 12,
• 3:11
  S2: 18 months with the Trump administration has been the huge
• 3:14
  S2: ramp run up in gold prices. I know you love
• 3:18
  S2: a bit of bling, jacki. Jewelry prices are up 20%
• 3:22
  S2: over the past 12 months. That is a direct impact
• 3:25
  S2: of the surge in gold and silver prices. And another
• 3:28
  S2: thing that might catch your eye because you love you
• 3:30
  S2: love a bit of steak, beef and lamb. Prices are
• 3:34
  S2: climbing at more than 10%. That is also because of
• 3:37
  S2: the US, the demand for red meat out of the
• 3:40
  S2: US because the American cattle herd is has fallen because
• 3:44
  S2: of dry conditions over there. We've been able to supply
• 3:47
  S2: a lot of cows, but that also means that the
• 3:50
  S2: price of your mince and your steak have gone up
• 3:53
  S2: as well by a fairly chunky amount.
• 3:56
  S1: Those Americans, apart from everything else, they're taking all of
• 3:58
  S1: our beef. And this is despite tariffs.
• 4:02
  S2: That's despite tariffs. And you know I love an Australian cow.
• 4:05
  S2: But Americans love them even more at the moment.
• 4:07
  S1: Yeah. Okay. They're good cows quality beef. All these figures
• 4:11
  S1: are out obviously two weeks before the treasurer will deliver
• 4:14
  S1: his federal budget on May the 12th. And obviously the
• 4:17
  S1: RBA decision. So the reserve Bank meets next week and
• 4:20
  S1: they look more likely than not to to raise rates
• 4:23
  S1: despite you know this result. Does this inflation result make
• 4:27
  S1: the Treasurer's job even more difficult. How is it sort
• 4:29
  S1: of playing into the budget preparation.
• 4:31
  S3: Well you could barely I'm interested in your view on
• 4:33
  S3: this Shane. I can barely recall a RBA decision that's
• 4:38
  S3: trickier than the one they have to make next week.
• 4:40
  S3: On the one hand, inflation had been rising even before
• 4:43
  S3: the war, fuelled in part by government spending but also
• 4:47
  S3: higher business investment and other factors. And so the RBA was,
• 4:51
  S3: you know, in the mind of in the minds of
• 4:52
  S3: some of its critics and economists behind the eight ball
• 4:54
  S3: on taming inflation before the war. Now we have an
• 4:58
  S3: inflation crisis fueled by factors totally outside of the hands
• 5:02
  S3: of the Australian government or any Australian consumer, which has
• 5:05
  S3: caused a consumer confidence hit. It's at its lowest level
• 5:08
  S3: in a long time. And the RBA, because it only
• 5:11
  S3: has one lever to pull, is considering raising rates again,
• 5:14
  S3: which could make the consumer side even worse to deal
• 5:17
  S3: with the inflation problem that already existed, but has also
• 5:20
  S3: got worse.
• 5:21
  S2: Who wants to be a central banker?
• 5:23
  S3: And they're already split five four on their last decision
• 5:25
  S3: is can you remember a more difficult rates decision than
• 5:28
  S3: the one next week?
• 5:29
  S2: So, uh, in terms of difficulty, the 2007 election decision
• 5:36
  S2: when the reserve Bank lifted interest rates 2 or 3
• 5:39
  S2: weeks out from an election, that was a particularly tricky one, 2019,
• 5:43
  S2: where they decided not to cut interest rates just before
• 5:46
  S2: an election and then did it straight after. That was
• 5:49
  S2: also tricky one. This one, it's tricky because it's not
• 5:53
  S2: the politics or the budget that's to one side. It
• 5:57
  S2: is the fact, and you've touched on it, the fact
• 5:59
  S2: that it was a five four vote. There were four
• 6:01
  S2: people around that table last month who said, let's hold on.
• 6:05
  S2: We're not sure how this war is going to play out.
• 6:08
  S2: We may have to make some tough decisions down the line.
• 6:12
  S2: And if you read the minutes of that meeting, all
• 6:15
  S2: nine said, yep, much depends on if the war comes
• 6:19
  S2: to an end, then yeah, we'll continue on tightening monetary policy.
• 6:23
  S2: But they know six weeks on, there is no one
• 6:25
  S2: in the world who thinks that this war is over.
• 6:28
  S2: Like in the last 72 hours, the price of oil
• 6:31
  S2: has gone from about 95 to 120 a barrel. That
• 6:35
  S2: means it's going. It's getting worse and tougher. And so
• 6:38
  S2: the bank has to decide what can we do? Those
• 6:42
  S2: that high oil price is going to hit consumers. You've
• 6:45
  S2: touched on that, which means a slower economy, which means
• 6:49
  S2: adding more in all interest rate paying may actually hurt
• 6:54
  S2: the economy in a really long lasting way.
• 6:56
  S1: Yeah, it's such a tricky decision, as you say, and
• 6:59
  S1: it's an invidious sort of set of circumstances. Shane, we
• 7:02
  S1: already know a fair bit about what will be in
• 7:04
  S1: the budget, and this is par for the course. You know,
• 7:06
  S1: governments always kind of leak out or, or talk about
• 7:09
  S1: foreshadow the the measures that they're going to take. We
• 7:11
  S1: know they're going to be big, big, deep cuts into
• 7:14
  S1: the NDIS. We know there are going to be tax
• 7:16
  S1: changes around investor perks CGT and negative gearing changes. Is
• 7:21
  S1: there anything else major things that I'm missing there. We
• 7:24
  S1: know there'll be probably extra defence spending. What other measures
• 7:28
  S1: do we already know about.
• 7:29
  S2: We know a bit around say, infrastructure spending. Just this
• 7:34
  S2: week Anthony Albanese was over in Western Australia and handing
• 7:38
  S2: out half $1 billion to some infrastructure works around a
• 7:42
  S2: very large new port project that's going on there. There's
• 7:45
  S2: been some money flowing in terms of housing, which Housing
• 7:49
  S2: and tax are just going to be so central to
• 7:52
  S2: this budget. The NDIS announcement last week was such an
• 7:56
  S2: unusual budget framing device because look at us, we're slashing
• 8:00
  S2: and burning spending in an area that's affects so many people.
• 8:07
  S2: That's unusual, but I think they have still held back
• 8:11
  S2: a fair bit, partly because of what's going on with
• 8:13
  S2: the war that's clouding a lot. You've got Albanese doing
• 8:16
  S2: a lot of Petro diplomacy around, around the region, and
• 8:21
  S2: the final decisions on the budget haven't been signed off.
• 8:24
  S2: They'll be signed off in the next couple of days.
• 8:25
  S2: So there is still a lot that we don't know.
• 8:28
  S1: Yeah. Okay. Paul, I'm interested in the framing because at
• 8:31
  S1: the moment the government's trying to frame the budget very
• 8:33
  S1: much as an intergenerational equity sort of argument. And I
• 8:37
  S1: know there are a few other key themes that they
• 8:39
  S1: want to get across, but, you know, they're sort of
• 8:41
  S1: talking about the fact that young people in particular are
• 8:45
  S1: very disaffected within this economy. They're more likely to be
• 8:49
  S1: affected negatively by disruptions to the economy and, of course,
• 8:52
  S1: in housing. It's sort of the big number one thing
• 8:54
  S1: that makes people feel really bad about their lives, that
• 8:58
  S1: they that they're locked out of something that their parents
• 9:00
  S1: and grandparents were able to, to do relatively easily. What's
• 9:04
  S1: the framing for the budget? I think there's a dreaded
• 9:06
  S1: five planks kind of thing.
• 9:09
  S3: Yeah. Maybe I'll turn into a government spokesperson and give
• 9:13
  S3: give listeners the five planks just after the first part
• 9:15
  S3: of my answer. But you're totally right. The government is
• 9:17
  S3: framing this as a moment where it will attempt to
• 9:21
  S3: tilt the balance back in, or at least more in
• 9:24
  S3: favor of younger generations of Australians who, you know, many
• 9:27
  S3: economists and Shane and Ken Henry and various politicians have
• 9:31
  S3: said for years and years have had the rough end
• 9:34
  S3: of the stick for a long time and maybe worse
• 9:36
  S3: off than their parents generation, which is a kind of
• 9:39
  S3: break in the social contract. The framing has been fascinating
• 9:42
  S3: because intergenerational equity is the buzzword that has been floating
• 9:45
  S3: around for years. The Prime Minister started off the year
• 9:48
  S3: talking about it once he shifted off from Bondi. But
• 9:52
  S3: the government's put a new frame on it to make
• 9:55
  S3: the intergenerational equity argument fit the current moment with international
• 10:00
  S3: headwinds and a sense of crisis. And they've put this
• 10:03
  S3: new tag resilience around the intergenerational equity component. The resilience
• 10:08
  S3: frame also takes in supply chain reform and fuel security.
• 10:14
  S3: But they're wrapping the tax reform agenda with this resilience
• 10:19
  S3: framing to suggest to the public that we're in a
• 10:22
  S3: time of crisis. The country feels frazzled. Populists are on
• 10:26
  S3: the rise. People feel like the system needs an overhaul,
• 10:31
  S3: and that one way to make the country more resilient
• 10:33
  S3: outside of what we can do to secure supply chains,
• 10:36
  S3: which have clearly been exposed once again, is to make
• 10:40
  S3: sure that people in the suburbs, younger Australians, people struggling
• 10:44
  S3: to get by, feel that they have a greater stake
• 10:46
  S3: in the economy and have a sense that the future
• 10:49
  S3: might not be as grim as the last 10 or
• 10:52
  S3: 15 years, when living standards have been pretty flat. So
• 10:55
  S3: this new framing has come over the top of the
• 10:57
  S3: intergenerational equity framing to add add a component that makes
• 11:01
  S3: it more relevant to the current moment.
• 11:02
  S1: Yeah. So Shane, they're talking they're really about resilience of
• 11:06
  S1: our democracy. Because normally when we talk about resilience, it's
• 11:09
  S1: a bit of a buzzword, isn't it? But I take
• 11:12
  S1: it to mean more talk about fuel security and, you know,
• 11:15
  S1: economic security and being more independent in terms of particularly
• 11:20
  S1: our energy supply. But what Paul was just talking about
• 11:23
  S1: was more like the resilience of our very democracy and
• 11:26
  S1: our very democratic system and our social cohesion. Because if people,
• 11:30
  S1: particularly young people, feel like they're locked out of certain
• 11:32
  S1: parts of the economy, then they're going to become disaffected.
• 11:35
  S1: And that breeds. Yeah, a lot of social conflict, I suppose.
• 11:39
  S1: Is that what you're taking?
• 11:41
  S2: Yeah. It's been interesting how um, because intergenerational equity, that term,
• 11:46
  S2: Chalmers used that right at the start of the year.
• 11:48
  S2: And it was it popped as this is this is
• 11:52
  S2: the start of the sign. And you've seen Albanese really
• 11:54
  S2: lean into the social cohesion argument and.
• 11:57
  S3: Came out of the extremely exciting roundtable last year.
• 12:00
  S2: Out of the roundtable. And we're going to see elements
• 12:03
  S2: of that in the budget, which is also intriguing to
• 12:06
  S2: see what they pull out. But I really want to
• 12:09
  S2: dig deep into why young people are so utterly pissed,
• 12:14
  S2: and it's understandable. So we're doing a story on, say,
• 12:18
  S2: negative gearing. So back in 99, 2000, when the CGT
• 12:23
  S2: concession was introduced, there was about 109,000 people under the
• 12:27
  S2: age of 30 who owned one rental property. 25 years later,
• 12:32
  S2: there's 95,000 of them. Now the population has grown 40%,
• 12:37
  S2: but the number of young people who have found their
• 12:40
  S2: way to get to own a rental property has actually
• 12:43
  S2: fallen over that same period. The number of people who
• 12:47
  S2: are 60 or more, who own at least one property
• 12:52
  S2: has increased from about 120,000 to 600,000.
• 12:57
  S1: And is it possible to say what the reasons are
• 12:59
  S1: for that.
• 13:00
  S2: Because young people have been utterly priced out of the market. So. Right.
• 13:04
  S2: This this is what's going on with when like the
• 13:08
  S2: average mortgage has increased about fourfold over that period. In Sydney,
• 13:13
  S2: the average mortgage is now 750, 60,000. Somewhere in there.
• 13:17
  S2: In Melbourne it's about 600,000. When I was a young fella,
• 13:22
  S2: mortgages were over 20 years. And then the banks started
• 13:27
  S2: to having to as the price of housing went up
• 13:29
  S2: and people had to borrow more. The average mortgage now
• 13:32
  S2: is 30 years because the repayments are unaffordable at 20
• 13:36
  S2: or 25 years. So that's what's going on. Young people
• 13:41
  S2: can't get a like. I've looked at buying a house
• 13:44
  S2: for themselves, let alone a rental property, to make some
• 13:47
  S2: way into their future. Ah, that's why they're so angry. Yeah.
• 13:51
  S2: And so like my understanding about the budget is also that,
• 13:55
  S2: and it goes exactly to where, where Paul's been speaking,
• 13:58
  S2: that the government is aware that the anger, the populist
• 14:02
  S2: anger on the right and the left is being largely
• 14:06
  S2: driven by the anger amongst people about their standard of
• 14:10
  S2: living if you're older. It's things aren't the same if
• 14:14
  S2: you're younger, it's because you've got no way of getting
• 14:16
  S2: into the system. That's what's.
• 14:18
  S1: Is that really Sisyphean, dare I say it, feeling that
• 14:21
  S1: no matter how hard you try, the system's always going
• 14:23
  S1: to outwit you and the system's not working for you.
• 14:27
  S1: I'm interested. I mean, we can talk about high level
• 14:29
  S1: framing and sort of like, mesh arguments and stuff, and
• 14:32
  S1: I'm sure that that's really fun. But, you know, when
• 14:35
  S1: it comes to actually pitching this and selling this to
• 14:37
  S1: the Australian people, and I'm talking particularly about the tax changes.
• 14:41
  S1: I want to ask you, Paul, how you think the
• 14:43
  S1: government will do that, because we've had former opposition leader
• 14:46
  S1: Bill shorten on this podcast as a as an honored
• 14:49
  S1: guest a few times. And he's talked about the huge
• 14:51
  S1: tax pitch he made for the 2019 election, which was
• 14:54
  S1: famously unsuccessful. It failed badly. How are they going to
• 14:58
  S1: go about selling these tax changes, in particular on a
• 15:01
  S1: retail level, given that there will be a big backlash
• 15:05
  S1: and the coalition is already sort of foreshadowing its criticisms
• 15:09
  S1: of those tax changes?
• 15:11
  S3: Yeah, they're no doubt will be a big backlash. I
• 15:13
  S3: think it's important to note that just to acknowledge that
• 15:17
  S3: the government is going ahead with these tax reforms, which
• 15:20
  S3: we are very confident they will. Even with all of
• 15:23
  S3: the insanity going on in the world, it could have
• 15:26
  S3: been the case that given everything else going on, they
• 15:30
  S3: pulled back, said, now is not the right time. Voters
• 15:33
  S3: aren't ready to have this public debate, but they've actually proceeded.
• 15:35
  S3: And we know the Prime Minister's made up his mind
• 15:37
  S3: on that. And Treasurer Jim Chalmers was absolutely keen to
• 15:40
  S3: do reform. So that should be acknowledged at the outset.
• 15:43
  S3: And that's a that's and they should get credit for that.
• 15:46
  S3: The framing is already looking different to 2019, when Bill
• 15:49
  S3: shorten took this massive tax package to. The election was
• 15:52
  S3: successfully framed up by Scott Morrison as running effectively a
• 15:55
  S3: big class war. There was a class element to the argument.
• 15:58
  S3: Shorten argued that the big end of town was running
• 16:00
  S3: off like bandits, and the rest of the country were
• 16:03
  S3: were on the back foot. Albanese, despite being from the
• 16:06
  S3: left of the Labor Party and shorten being from the right,
• 16:08
  S3: learnt very pointed lessons from the shorten expedition and has
• 16:13
  S3: dropped all the class war language. He's always talked about,
• 16:16
  S3: you know, the country moving forward as one and leaving
• 16:18
  S3: no one behind. But he hasn't sought to divide in
• 16:22
  S3: the way he's talked about economic justice. And I think
• 16:25
  S3: using the framing around populism, being on the rise, people
• 16:30
  S3: feeling frazzled, and that being the argument for making change
• 16:35
  S3: is more compelling and more saleable and better able to
• 16:38
  S3: fend off the scare campaign than a class war argument.
• 16:41
  S2: I was just going to add that they've been using
• 16:43
  S2: this term around. We want to give young people a
• 16:46
  S2: toehold into the property market. Now, that is a difficult
• 16:50
  S2: argument to. That's a difficult case to oppose. I'm not
• 16:54
  S2: seeing Tim Wilson standing up and saying, no, we shouldn't
• 16:56
  S2: be difficult finding a way for young people to get
• 16:58
  S2: into the property market. The argument is how you do it.
• 17:01
  S2: So that's when we talk about when politically we talk
• 17:04
  S2: about framing and narrative. Yeah, that's a good example of it.
• 17:08
  S3: And we have, we have no um, it's not clear
• 17:11
  S3: if the capital gains changes or negative gearing changes in
• 17:14
  S3: accommodation will have a hugely material effect on the housing market.
• 17:18
  S3: It supplies the bigger issue. They will be symbolically very
• 17:21
  S3: important and might cause between, you know, something like 1
• 17:24
  S3: to 5 or 6 or 7% on house prices. So
• 17:28
  S3: that's not going to fundamentally change the housing market. But
• 17:31
  S3: it's a start. And with some more movement on supply,
• 17:34
  S3: maybe it is the start of a positive development on
• 17:37
  S3: making the housing market fairer. But as you say, the
• 17:40
  S3: coalition is trying to expand its voting coalition and not
• 17:44
  S3: just pitch to asset owning boomers who are, you know,
• 17:48
  S3: slowly becoming.
• 17:49
  S2: Dying is the word.
• 17:50
  S3: Looking.
• 17:50
  S2: For.
• 17:51
  S3: Dying.
• 17:52
  S1: Dwindling as a vote of support?
• 17:53
  S3: Yeah. And so if they're boxed into a really vociferous
• 17:56
  S3: campaign against this push from labor to make the housing
• 17:59
  S3: market fairer, they risk narrowing their voting coalition. But on
• 18:04
  S3: the other side, labor has tried and failed to do
• 18:06
  S3: this over the years. So there's risk on on both sides.
• 18:08
  S1: Mhm. And I mean, so far the coalition has signaled
• 18:11
  S1: pretty clearly. Angus Taylor, I should say, has signaled pretty
• 18:14
  S1: clearly that he's going to oppose any changes to capital
• 18:17
  S1: gains tax and negative gearing.
• 18:19
  S3: Yeah. Not not all his colleagues are sold on that though. Jack,
• 18:21
  S3: there's there is a really healthy debate on that, which
• 18:23
  S3: is fascinating.
• 18:23
  S1: I know it is really fascinating. It's it's hard to
• 18:26
  S1: see how Angus Taylor, as the leader, will be able
• 18:28
  S1: to climb back from his opposition to those changes. But
• 18:30
  S1: as you say, there are elements, younger elements within the
• 18:34
  S1: liberals who who think maybe they should they should take
• 18:37
  S1: a look at them talking about populism and Angus Taylor,
• 18:40
  S1: just to take a bit of a swerve. He very
• 18:42
  S1: much nodded in that direction this week when he made
• 18:44
  S1: some comments about Welcome to Country ceremonies or welcome to
• 18:48
  S1: Country greetings being overused. This was after, you know, a
• 18:52
  S1: lot of people saw it as a bit of a
• 18:53
  S1: dog whistle because he was asked about the disgraceful booing
• 18:56
  S1: of Welcome to Country at some of the Anzac Day
• 18:58
  S1: ceremonies around the country. This welcome to country is being overused.
• 19:03
  S1: Idea is not new. It's something that Peter Dutton brought
• 19:06
  S1: up bizarrely, in the last week of the election campaign
• 19:10
  S1: last year, and famously, it didn't work for him. It
• 19:13
  S1: was it was part of a famously terrible election campaign
• 19:16
  S1: which had a disastrous result for them. I'm just wondering,
• 19:19
  S1: do you actually think this stuff works for the coalition? Because,
• 19:23
  S1: you know, labor does steer steers clear of culture war stuff,
• 19:26
  S1: but the coalition seems willing to lean into it.
• 19:30
  S3: Yeah. It's a it's such a hard question. I wouldn't
• 19:33
  S3: discount the extent to which this feeling is. I don't
• 19:37
  S3: know if the word widespread is is right, but I.
• 19:40
  S3: It's easy to discount the views of the community on
• 19:43
  S3: this and suggest that it's a very narrow Sky news
• 19:46
  S3: watching cohort who has this feeling that welcome to countries
• 19:50
  S3: are overused. I suspect it's a bit wider than that
• 19:53
  S3: and that there is a genuinely large, maybe not majority,
• 19:57
  S3: probably not majority view in the community that welcome to
• 20:00
  S3: countries have been overused. Now, having said that, is it
• 20:05
  S3: where the Liberal Party wants to be talking about issues
• 20:07
  S3: like this regularly? Probably not. They're on One Nation's patch
• 20:12
  S3: talking about this stuff. They'll never be as hardline talking
• 20:16
  S3: on race and indigenous symbolism and migration as Pauline Hanson.
• 20:21
  S3: They elevate those issues when they talk about them and
• 20:24
  S3: probably actually shift vote in Pauline Hanson's direction, because she
• 20:27
  S3: is the emblem of these talking points. So There. They're
• 20:31
  S3: trapped in one sense, the coalition, because they know that
• 20:34
  S3: a significant part of their voting base is really animated
• 20:37
  S3: by these issues. They are, you know, held by people
• 20:41
  S3: who in the coalition's mind would not be, you know,
• 20:43
  S3: the coalition would not view all voters who hold these
• 20:45
  S3: views as racists who should not be pandered to. They
• 20:48
  S3: would see it as a more mainstream view than that.
• 20:50
  S3: So they don't want to they don't want to dismiss
• 20:53
  S3: these concerns. They don't want to be talking about them
• 20:56
  S3: all the time. How do you strike the balance? How
• 20:58
  S3: do you do it in a way that doesn't turn
• 21:00
  S3: off voters in the center and teal voters and labor
• 21:03
  S3: voters who are up for grabs? It's really hard. And
• 21:06
  S3: that's why they're polling in such a poor position, because
• 21:09
  S3: they haven't been able to answer these questions.
• 21:10
  S1: Yeah, I just think there's the jury is out for
• 21:13
  S1: me over whether this culture war, these cultural issues, even
• 21:17
  S1: if they, as you say, they chime with a significant
• 21:20
  S1: proportion of the voter bloc, whether they actually work for
• 21:23
  S1: the coalition overall, because we don't have any evidence, any
• 21:26
  S1: evidence that they do. On another tax proposition that was
• 21:30
  S1: also maybe a little bit populist, but from the left. Shane,
• 21:33
  S1: this week, the Prime Minister categorically ruled out any idea
• 21:37
  S1: of offshore taxing offshore gas exports, didn't he?
• 21:42
  S2: Uh, he ruled out a gas tax on existing contracts,
• 21:47
  S2: which is a very different issue.
• 21:48
  S1: Yeah. So let's get into that. How definitive was his
• 21:51
  S1: ruling out or ruling in?
• 21:53
  S2: Well, I point to the fact that he just flew
• 21:55
  S2: around all of Southeast Asia with some of our biggest
• 21:58
  S2: consumers of Australian LNG, where he made sure saying, we're
• 22:02
  S2: no surprise, no surprises coming your way. This is the
• 22:06
  S2: diplomacy we want their refined fuels and their fertiliser. They
• 22:11
  S2: want Australian LNG, especially with Qatar, a very large LNG producer,
• 22:16
  S2: out of the market because of the war in Iran.
• 22:18
  S2: So that's the real politic. The people saying that, especially
• 22:23
  S2: on the left, saying let's just tax everything going out,
• 22:26
  S2: don't have to worry about the fact that, uh, Malaysia
• 22:30
  S2: or Singapore might say, well, you've done this to, to
• 22:33
  S2: LNG might be difficult. You getting another boatload of diesel
• 22:37
  S2: or fertilizer or unleaded petrol. That's really what's going on.
• 22:41
  S2: And that's how it's been explained to me that there
• 22:43
  S2: is a case and you might be able to do
• 22:46
  S2: it on, on Uncontracted gas because that belongs to no one.
• 22:51
  S2: And that's, that's open. But if you've got a contract,
• 22:54
  S2: you can see the leaders of Malaysia and Singapore and
• 22:58
  S2: South Korea and Japan and China saying, we've got a contract,
• 23:03
  S2: honour it and we will look after you. This week.
• 23:06
  S2: Penny Wong is in China, uh, trying to make sure
• 23:09
  S2: we have access to jet fuel. LNG will be part
• 23:12
  S2: of that conversation, making sure that we are a reliable
• 23:16
  S2: and relatively inexpensive supplier of something that's really important to them.
• 23:21
  S1: Yeah. And the reliability is so important for investment. Paul.
• 23:24
  S1: I politicians always say they don't want to play the
• 23:26
  S1: rule in or the or rule out game, but he didn't. Actually. Albanese,
• 23:30
  S1: in his comments, did not actually rule out the possibility
• 23:33
  S1: of a future tax, perhaps on. As Shane said, on
• 23:36
  S1: Uncontracted gas exports.
• 23:38
  S3: Yeah, he's. As we talked about this last week, didn't we. He.
• 23:42
  S3: The Prime Minister is over a period of weeks now
• 23:44
  S3: slowly crept up to the point where he is ruled out.
• 23:48
  S3: Any move in the budget took him a while, but
• 23:50
  S3: he got there. So we know there won't be anything imminent.
• 23:54
  S3: It would make it very hard to make these arguments
• 23:57
  S3: with Asian trading neighbours to keep supplying us with fuel,
• 24:00
  S3: with fuel, as Shane says. But you are right. I
• 24:02
  S3: don't think it's totally dead. The idea that in the
• 24:04
  S3: next year or two the government does something to tweak
• 24:07
  S3: the Prrt, which is this tax that we don't raise
• 24:10
  S3: much money for because these massive companies are still riding
• 24:13
  S3: off their project costs when they set up these LNG
• 24:16
  S3: facilities about 10 or 15 years ago. There is such
• 24:19
  S3: a palpable sense in the community now. There's been a
• 24:22
  S3: really effective campaign. I mean, I was with friends on
• 24:24
  S3: the weekend who don't really follow politics at the football
• 24:27
  S3: with them. And they, uh, one of them was conservative,
• 24:30
  S3: one of them was probably labor liberal voter. Um, and
• 24:32
  S3: they said, well, we're seeing all this stuff from David
• 24:34
  S3: Pocock in our social media feeds. Why the hell is
• 24:36
  S3: the prime Minister? Yeah. Why is the Prime Minister not
• 24:38
  S3: getting more revenue out of them? So there's this populist
• 24:41
  S3: campaign that's been run. Some of it has been quite
• 24:44
  S3: misleading from some of the advocates, but nevertheless, it's out there.
• 24:47
  S3: There is a strong appetite in the labor backbench to
• 24:50
  S3: do some more here. The treasurer was interested in this
• 24:53
  S3: gas tax idea leading up to the budget. So while
• 24:56
  S3: now might not be the right time, and I suspect,
• 24:58
  S3: given the Prime Minister's strong language this week, we won't
• 25:01
  S3: see anything in coming months even. But in this term
• 25:04
  S3: of Parliament, it wouldn't surprise us all. I think, if
• 25:05
  S3: the government had had another look.
• 25:07
  S1: Yeah, that's what's so interesting. They definitely haven't knocked the
• 25:10
  S1: idea that it's not dead, buried and cremated. As our
• 25:13
  S1: other friend of the podcast, Tony Abbott, might have said.
• 25:16
  S3: We need Tony back on to talk about Angus.
• 25:18
  S1: We need Tony back.
• 25:19
  S3: I know we're very close.
• 25:20
  S1: Well, Tony's going to be at the Sydney Writers Festival
• 25:22
  S1: for anyone who wants to see him talk about his book,
• 25:24
  S1: which we did interview him on the podcast about Shane.
• 25:27
  S1: It's always a pleasure to have you on. Are you
• 25:29
  S1: going to be do you do some sort of Rocky
• 25:30
  S1: Balboa style training in the lead up to the budget
• 25:33
  S1: lock up date? Do you sort of haul logs through
• 25:36
  S1: a remote forest in Philadelphia or.
• 25:39
  S2: Well, I don't have to go to Philadelphia. I was
• 25:41
  S2: just last weekend I was running in the dark in
• 25:44
  S2: the hills of Canberra, which are much prettier than the
• 25:48
  S2: mean streets of Philadelphia. Yeah, yeah. Let me let me
• 25:52
  S2: assure you, you.
• 25:52
  S3: Could run up the stairs of the National Library. That's quite.
• 25:55
  S1: You could that would be actually iconic. I would I
• 25:58
  S1: would look.
• 25:59
  S2: I'll get shots. Me and the dog Coco will be
• 26:01
  S2: there and.
• 26:02
  S3: Your budget and your budget socks.
• 26:04
  S2: Oh, the flying pig tie. The flying pig tie. But
• 26:06
  S2: you know me. You know me, Jackie. There'll be a
• 26:09
  S2: Kate Bush, uh, reference somewhere, and that'll get me through.
• 26:12
  S1: Yeah.
• 26:13
  S2: Kate. Kate is the driving reference.
• 26:16
  S1: I look forward to it. And, you know, and Kate
• 26:18
  S1: Bush as well as Gen X, like she's firmly placed
• 26:20
  S1: within the two generations of the generation wars that we
• 26:23
  S1: were having at the moment.
• 26:24
  S2: So and as you know, Gen Xers, we are the
• 26:26
  S2: forgotten generation. Jackie.
• 26:28
  S1: Yeah. And the coolest people, other people won't acknowledge it,
• 26:30
  S1: but we are the coolest. True.
• 26:32
  S3: If you call yourself cool, that's your first problem.
• 26:35
  S1: If you have to tell people you're cool, you're probably
• 26:37
  S1: not cool. Anyway, thanks so much guys. See you soon.
• 26:41
  S3: See you soon.
• 26:41
  S2: Cheers, Jackie.
• 26:50
  S1: You can read all of our political news on our website,
• 26:52
  S1: si.com.au and smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong
• 26:58
  S1: with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills,
• 27:02
  S1: and our podcast for overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.
• 27:07
  S1: Before you go, please follow Inside Politics and leave a
• 27:10
  S1: review for us on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley,
• 27:14
  S1: thank you for listening.