Latest / Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast / Inside The Data: How Did Eagles Third-Down Offense In Week 1 Compare To Last year?
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Hello and welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside
- 0:12Speaker 1: the Birds. I'm Jeff Mosher. And of course, we've got
- 0:14Speaker 1: our data and analytics expert, Sam Finkel. And this is
- 0:17Speaker 1: really exciting because we are now, we have a game,
- 0:21Speaker 1: an actual game with actual data and analytics to discuss.
- 0:25Speaker 1: And Sam has done a great job of putting all
- 0:27Speaker 1: the information and the charts together that we're going to
- 0:30Speaker 1: go through. Don't worry if you're not watching on YouTube,
- 0:32Speaker 1: we will put it in layman's terms for those listening
- 0:35Speaker 1: on the podcast platform. And we'll recap. eagles win 24
- 0:39Speaker 1: 22 over the commanders but then we'll also have a
- 0:42Speaker 1: double edition well later in this week we'll have a
- 0:44Speaker 1: little bit of an analytics based preview of this game
- 0:48Speaker 1: coming up against the tennessee titans and boy i wonder
- 0:51Speaker 1: what the data says about the titans getting hammered by
- 0:54Speaker 1: the jets in week one but sam um you you
- 0:57Speaker 1: put up together a lot you know you always think
- 0:58Speaker 1: of things from an analytic standpoint uh before i bring
- 1:02Speaker 1: up the charts when we go into things i just
- 1:03Speaker 1: want to know what jumped out at you from your
- 1:06Speaker 1: studies and your research about the Eagles win over the commanders?
- 1:10Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, first off, I kind of want to go
- 1:11Speaker 2: to what you were saying. I'm just excited to have
- 1:13Speaker 2: EPA and like actual statistics back. For sure. But one
- 1:18Speaker 2: thing that jumped out is, I mean, we might be
- 1:21Speaker 2: done our third down studies like pretty soon. I mean,
- 1:24Speaker 2: if again, it's only one game, so a small sample size, but.
- 1:28Speaker 2: You know, they're starting to, you know, look like an
- 1:31Speaker 2: actual football offense right now. So I don't know that
- 1:36Speaker 2: that was very interesting. So we might have to replace
- 1:38Speaker 2: that segment. I mean, I'm hoping we have to replace
- 1:40Speaker 2: that segment. It would be good news for the Eagles offense.
- 1:43Speaker 2: They weren't perfect. Obviously, there were a lot of issues
- 1:47Speaker 2: that we'll talk about. But yeah, I think that was
- 1:49Speaker 2: like one of the main things excitingly that popped out
- 1:52Speaker 2: to me.
- 1:53Speaker 1: It was the first thing that I looked at when
- 1:55Speaker 1: you sent your chart over to see if it was
- 1:57Speaker 1: still there. And For those who may not remember, last
- 2:00Speaker 1: year when we did this show, Sam added this third
- 2:03Speaker 1: down category because the Eagles, by six weeks into the season,
- 2:06Speaker 1: were almost historically inept on not only on third down
- 2:11Speaker 1: and with three and outs, but also in how often
- 2:15Speaker 1: they were in third and long compared to third and short,
- 2:18Speaker 1: compared to not only their third and shorts, but then
- 2:21Speaker 1: how often they were in third and long compared to
- 2:22Speaker 1: like the rest of the NFL. I mean, they were,
- 2:25Speaker 1: I remember us talking about like the Browns, the Raiders,
- 2:28Speaker 1: the Eagles were like in that category in terms of
- 2:31Speaker 1: how often they were in third down and how bad
- 2:32Speaker 1: they were on third down. So yeah, it was the
- 2:34Speaker 1: first thing that I jumped to look at on the
- 2:36Speaker 1: charts and it was, it's a good start.
- 2:38Speaker 2: Right.
- 2:39Speaker 1: But we got to give this thing a couple of
- 2:40Speaker 1: weeks just to make sure.
- 2:41Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 2:42Speaker 1: Before we kill it off, we have to make sure
- 2:44Speaker 1: it's true.
- 2:44Speaker 2: A hundred percent.
- 2:45Speaker 1: A hundred percent. That's good. Cool. So like we always do,
- 2:50Speaker 1: Sam puts together charts and they're largely, you know, we
- 2:55Speaker 1: do go through some basic stats, but they're also largely
- 3:00Speaker 1: deeper analytical things like win percentage and pass rush, win rate. And,
- 3:05Speaker 1: you know, you'll see it on the chart, but I
- 3:07Speaker 1: just wanted to give everybody. We also do the basic
- 3:09Speaker 1: data really quickly too. And as I always try to do,
- 3:13Speaker 1: which I'll do now, I got to blow things up
- 3:15Speaker 1: for people on YouTube to be able to see it.
- 3:18Speaker 1: And the first thing we have is, Score by quarter.
- 3:23Speaker 1: You have two charts for this, right?
- 3:24Speaker 2: I do. Yeah. And I think by the back end
- 3:28Speaker 2: of last year, I started adding both of these charts.
- 3:31Speaker 2: I have them both because it gives good context. So
- 3:34Speaker 2: the first chart is just points per quarter. Right. So
- 3:38Speaker 2: it's pretty standard is what you see like on ESPN
- 3:41Speaker 2: or any other thing where it just says like, you know,
- 3:43Speaker 2: the commanders had three, the first quarter Eagles had zero.
- 3:46Speaker 2: And it just kind of carries that. But I like
- 3:48Speaker 2: to show it in kind of a line graph. Because
- 3:50Speaker 2: it kind of shows who controlled the game, right? So
- 3:52Speaker 2: if you look in the first quarter, the Commanders controlled
- 3:55Speaker 2: the game, but then it was pretty much all Eagles
- 3:57Speaker 2: until the Commanders had that run at the end.
- 3:59Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely. The jaggedness of the Commanders' line is really fascinating.
- 4:04Speaker 1: I mean, they really had a little struggle in the
- 4:06Speaker 1: middle there and then started to take off in the
- 4:08Speaker 1: fourth quarter. What is this?
- 4:10Speaker 2: Go ahead. Well, I was going to say, more importantly,
- 4:12Speaker 2: the second chart, I think, shows what that actually means.
- 4:17Speaker 2: So NFL Pro Next Gen Stats has... a win percentage
- 4:21Speaker 2: breakdown of every play in the game and what, like
- 4:25Speaker 2: what play corresponds to what win percentage for each team.
- 4:30Speaker 2: And I, if you look at it, there's a lot of,
- 4:32Speaker 2: you know, up and down. It's an emotional rollercoaster. It's
- 4:35Speaker 2: kind of how everyone feels watching the game.
- 4:37Speaker 1: Yes.
- 4:37Speaker 2: But what I think is interesting is the commanders never
- 4:40Speaker 2: crossed the 50% win percentage threshold. They were always projected
- 4:45Speaker 2: to lose throughout this game, at least by the next
- 4:48Speaker 2: gen stats. So the commanders held their highest win percentage
- 4:52Speaker 2: of 49% twice in the game. It was both in
- 4:56Speaker 2: the first quarter. The first time was a nine-yard sack
- 4:59Speaker 2: on Jalen Hurts, and the second one was a five-yard
- 5:03Speaker 2: pass from Jaden Daniels to Bates on second and sixth.
- 5:08Speaker 2: Washington had a lead of 3-0 in both of those plays.
- 5:13Speaker 1: Wow. So I think– right. And right after that nine-yard
- 5:15Speaker 1: sack is where I think Hurts bailed him out with
- 5:18Speaker 1: a– run to get first down i i would have
- 5:21Speaker 1: thought that right as they scored the touchdown washington right
- 5:27Speaker 1: and then go they set up for the two-point conversion
- 5:29Speaker 1: which they fail i would have thought that that might
- 5:31Speaker 1: have been up there with sort of where their their
- 5:34Speaker 1: peak win percentage only because they were two from tying
- 5:37Speaker 1: the game you know.
- 5:38Speaker 2: So so the reason i i thought about that too
- 5:40Speaker 2: and the reason why i think it's not that way
- 5:42Speaker 2: is because again that would have only tied the game
- 5:45Speaker 2: So they still would have had to do additional. So it's,
- 5:47Speaker 2: there was a lot of hurdles for them to go through. Fortunately,
- 5:52Speaker 2: they probably would have went for two earlier if Stefan
- 5:55Speaker 2: Diggs didn't do that silly celebration that got flagged, which
- 5:58Speaker 2: was very, it's a good break. The Eagles caught, but
- 6:01Speaker 2: I think that that certainly affected the way that they
- 6:04Speaker 2: played the end of the game.
- 6:05Speaker 1: Oh, for sure. There were two, two kind of what
- 6:08Speaker 1: we call unorthodox, right? Things that, that really could have
- 6:11Speaker 1: swung this game, that one and Jalen Carter blocking a,
- 6:15Speaker 1: Was it a PAT or a field? It was a PAT, right?
- 6:17Speaker 1: So that changes the course of a game a lot
- 6:21Speaker 1: of times and forces coaches have to coach differently.
- 6:23Speaker 2: Absolutely. And I will say in the second half, their
- 6:27Speaker 2: highest win percentage was 34% in the fourth quarter. And
- 6:31Speaker 2: it was following the false start by Jordan Mailata on
- 6:34Speaker 2: second and 13. Eagles were leading at that point 17
- 6:37Speaker 2: to 16.
- 6:39Speaker 1: Right. So the thought process is now they're backed up
- 6:41Speaker 1: second and 13. It looks like another three and out
- 6:44Speaker 1: is going to come and then the commanders would get
- 6:46Speaker 1: the ball back in there. Yeah. But even then 34%, that's,
- 6:50Speaker 1: that's fairly low. So it is.
- 6:51Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the first time we brought this out
- 6:55Speaker 2: was the bills game.
- 6:57Speaker 1: Yes.
- 6:57Speaker 2: First time we brought that chart. Cause they, the bills
- 6:59Speaker 2: had a 56% chance of winning up into the last
- 7:02Speaker 2: second of the game.
- 7:03Speaker 1: Right.
- 7:03Speaker 2: So if I remember correctly, it was something like that.
- 7:05Speaker 1: So yeah.
- 7:07Speaker 2: Yeah. All right.
- 7:08Speaker 1: Let's do our, our by the numbers and then we'll
- 7:11Speaker 1: get into the third downs. I love it. Um, The
- 7:13Speaker 1: basic stats, I was wrong about penalties. I thought there
- 7:18Speaker 1: would be more. I think five for 40, which I
- 7:20Speaker 1: think two or three were on defense. So there were
- 7:23Speaker 1: not too many offensive penalties. So that was a good
- 7:25Speaker 1: sign for the Eagles.
- 7:26Speaker 2: I think so too. There's definitely some growing pains that
- 7:30Speaker 2: the offense has and will deal with probably for the
- 7:33Speaker 2: next couple weeks. I think you said it perfectly last
- 7:38Speaker 2: season about how you cannot judge this unit until like
- 7:42Speaker 2: four or five weeks in. If you think about it,
- 7:44Speaker 2: their Super Bowl run, they did not look like a
- 7:46Speaker 2: good offense in the first couple weeks, and they really
- 7:48Speaker 2: kind of got it together. So I think it's like
- 7:51Speaker 2: the law of big numbers, right? You got to wait
- 7:54Speaker 2: until you have an actual legitimate sample size to be like,
- 7:58Speaker 2: this is what the team is. We don't really know yet.
- 8:01Speaker 2: We have an idea, but we don't really know.
- 8:03Speaker 1: Right. I think the bigger thing that jumps out to
- 8:05Speaker 1: me at basic stats is that the Eagles– won total yards.
- 8:11Speaker 1: They won yards per play by a wide margin. They
- 8:14Speaker 1: won yards per pass by a pretty wide margin, yards
- 8:16Speaker 1: per rush by a pretty wide margin. And yet, despite
- 8:20Speaker 1: winning in all those categories, the Commanders ripped off more
- 8:23Speaker 1: plays and had a longer time of possession. I don't
- 8:26Speaker 1: know if that's a weird anomaly or what to make
- 8:29Speaker 1: of it, but I'm guessing we don't see that very often.
- 8:33Speaker 2: It just typically, and this isn't a game... that's probably
- 8:37Speaker 2: representative of this, but it would just mean that the
- 8:39Speaker 2: Eagles were more efficient with how they were playing because
- 8:41Speaker 2: efficiency would lead to less plays and it would lead
- 8:44Speaker 2: to lower time of possession typically.
- 8:46Speaker 1: Fair.
- 8:47Speaker 2: So to me, that's just a, you know, a symptom
- 8:50Speaker 2: of efficiency.
- 8:51Speaker 1: Right. I'm just, I think if we go back, especially
- 8:54Speaker 1: that Superbowl year and even before there, they used to
- 8:57Speaker 1: just own time of possession because that was our offense, right?
- 9:01Speaker 1: It was sort of like control, control, control, control, and
- 9:05Speaker 1: pop a big play. And then break the bracket. And
- 9:08Speaker 1: it was a little bit like that against the Commanders.
- 9:10Speaker 1: But the Commanders sort of had the same deal where
- 9:13Speaker 1: they were inefficient, inefficient, inefficient. Then pop a big Jaden
- 9:17Speaker 1: Daniels scramble, pop a big third down play to like
- 9:20Speaker 1: Antonio Williams or Stephon Diggs. And that was really how
- 9:23Speaker 1: they were able to do that.
- 9:25Speaker 2: Yeah. And I mean, it was either, I think it
- 9:28Speaker 2: was last year where they had that Steelers game where
- 9:30Speaker 2: they had like a seven and a half minute drive.
- 9:33Speaker 2: Last year or the year before, but I think it
- 9:34Speaker 2: was the year before.
- 9:34Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 9:35Speaker 2: Oh, the year before. Okay. But yeah, I mean like that,
- 9:38Speaker 2: you're right. That is a, was a big part of
- 9:39Speaker 2: their offense. So it'd be interesting to see how that
- 9:42Speaker 2: trend continues throughout the season.
- 9:44Speaker 1: For sure. Third down stats. Like we said, we've got
- 9:48Speaker 1: to talk about it and parse it through. The first
- 9:52Speaker 1: chart to me is, is cool. The second chart is
- 9:54Speaker 1: going to be fun, right? First chart. It just shows
- 9:57Speaker 1: third down percentage in this game compared to last two years,
- 10:01Speaker 1: they were at 43% against the commanders. Uh, and that
- 10:05Speaker 1: was way up from the 37% of last year. And Sam,
- 10:09Speaker 1: even more up just one week, but from the 42%
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- 13:29Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. It's a, that's very, um, even though it
- 13:33Speaker 2: didn't necessarily feel like it in the game, I agree.
- 13:36Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 13:36Speaker 2: But I mean, if there are strides that are being
- 13:39Speaker 2: made and I, I, again, it's one week, let's not
- 13:42Speaker 2: overreact here, but I mean, it's very positive to at
- 13:46Speaker 2: least see that right now.
- 13:47Speaker 1: Correct. And their opponent, obviously the commanders only did 33%,
- 13:53Speaker 1: but even last year when we talked about how their
- 13:54Speaker 1: opponent was doing better on third down than they were,
- 13:57Speaker 1: even in games where the Eagles would win. Well, the opponent,
- 14:01Speaker 1: let's say you use last year's opponent conversion rate at 41%, right?
- 14:05Speaker 1: The Eagles converted more at 43% this game. So always
- 14:10Speaker 1: good to see. But the real big one is see, I,
- 14:15Speaker 1: It's still interesting to me, Sam. This is why we
- 14:18Speaker 1: can't kill it, all right? Now we get into really
- 14:21Speaker 1: sorting through third downs. They had two third and shorts.
- 14:25Speaker 1: They made one of two of them, right? They had
- 14:28Speaker 1: six third and mediums and six third and long. That's
- 14:30Speaker 1: still a lot of third and longs. They were still
- 14:33Speaker 1: in third and long more. Now, we were talking last
- 14:37Speaker 1: year how they would be in third and long more
- 14:40Speaker 1: like more than third and short and third and mid combined.
- 14:43Speaker 1: You don't have that this time. That's good.
- 14:44Speaker 2: That was exactly the number. You're exactly right. It was
- 14:47Speaker 2: pretty much like that the entire year.
- 14:49Speaker 1: Right.
- 14:49Speaker 2: So, yeah.
- 14:52Speaker 1: So we're making strides, but I still think, you know,
- 14:54Speaker 1: you look at it and you say, man, they were
- 14:55Speaker 1: in third and long six times, third and medium six times.
- 14:58Speaker 1: And between them, they were at least third and sixth,
- 15:01Speaker 1: they were 50%. Third and long or more, 33%, which
- 15:03Speaker 1: is probably not a bad rate for a unmanageable down
- 15:10Speaker 1: and distance.
- 15:11Speaker 2: Absolutely. Their numbers would probably reflect more of what Washington's
- 15:14Speaker 2: numbers looked like, except if you switched. So, so Washington
- 15:17Speaker 2: had 10 third and longs. That's where the Eagles kind
- 15:20Speaker 2: of were last year. Right. And they had five short
- 15:23Speaker 2: and mid. So it was about, it was double. So
- 15:25Speaker 2: that's exactly how the Eagles were last year, just to
- 15:27Speaker 2: be clear. So it's really nice to see the defense
- 15:29Speaker 2: is still doing a really good job keeping, you know, the,
- 15:33Speaker 2: the opposing offense off schedule. Like that's, that's really good
- 15:36Speaker 2: to see too. Right.
- 15:37Speaker 1: And of course, your interesting note on Nick Sirianni.
- 15:40Speaker 2: Yeah, so according to NextGenStats by NFL Pro, the Eagles
- 15:45Speaker 2: won their sixth straight week one game, which is the
- 15:48Speaker 2: longest streak in the NFL. Sirianni is the fifth head
- 15:51Speaker 2: coach to win each of his first six career openers,
- 15:55Speaker 2: joining Jim Harbaugh, Mike Shanahan, Patsy Clark, and George Allen.
- 15:59Speaker 1: And guess whose streak came to an end in week one?
- 16:06Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh.
- 16:08Speaker 1: Yeah, it could only be Harbaugh and Shanahan. Harbaugh losing
- 16:10Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals.
- 16:12Speaker 2: Yeah, that was interesting.
- 16:17Speaker 1: By the way, it wasn't even close.
- 16:19Speaker 2: Yeah, that was not a... I was surprised to see that,
- 16:24Speaker 2: especially when we did the... For anybody that's listening that
- 16:28Speaker 2: didn't hear the record projection, the Eagles had the highest record,
- 16:33Speaker 2: the chance of winning against the Cardinals. And it was
- 16:36Speaker 2: an away game. So it's very interesting to see. Maybe
- 16:39Speaker 2: the Cardinals were underappreciated in some of the modeling.
- 16:43Speaker 1: For sure. Maybe. We'll see. That's again, we'll see beyond
- 16:46Speaker 1: week one what happens here. Eagles offense, we'll get into
- 16:51Speaker 1: the advanced data here. How did you feel about it, Sam?
- 16:56Speaker 1: We have to remind everybody that when you see a
- 16:59Speaker 1: negative number in things like EPA and it's not necessarily
- 17:04Speaker 1: a bad thing. Like some, some teams lead leagues with
- 17:07Speaker 1: a negative EPA. That's sort of expected.
- 17:10Speaker 2: Yeah, it, it, it is to an extent, especially when
- 17:14Speaker 2: you have a small sample size, but what's interesting is
- 17:17Speaker 2: for anybody that watched or listened last year, we compared
- 17:21Speaker 2: the season that was ongoing to the each performance. Obviously
- 17:25Speaker 2: we can't really do that. So we just took the
- 17:28Speaker 2: numbers from last year and compared it to this year. So, uh,
- 17:33Speaker 2: it is somewhat common for, you know, the EPA to
- 17:36Speaker 2: be negative. But I mean, most of the good teams
- 17:40Speaker 2: are at probably close to zero or if not positive. So,
- 17:44Speaker 2: I mean, the Eagles offense was not good last year.
- 17:46Speaker 2: That just wasn't, I mean, it was, it didn't perform well,
- 17:50Speaker 2: at least in these metrics, but I think the eye
- 17:52Speaker 2: test and just general sentiment, it was not a good,
- 17:56Speaker 2: it was not an efficient offense for sure. Right. Right.
- 17:59Speaker 1: Does it surprise you that their EPA per pass against
- 18:02Speaker 1: Washington was poorer than their EPA per pass last year? Um,
- 18:10Speaker 1: a little bit.
- 18:11Speaker 2: I mean, a lot of it was just because of
- 18:12Speaker 2: the screens got blown, blown up so easily. And again,
- 18:16Speaker 2: it's just one game. So I, I just, I don't
- 18:17Speaker 2: put a lot of stock into it being, you know,
- 18:21Speaker 2: minus 0.06. I think that there's some growing pains that
- 18:25Speaker 2: they'll figure out. Um, another thing that's important and this
- 18:28Speaker 2: is like a really important distinction that I'll make again
- 18:32Speaker 2: is quarterback scrambles it for this specific metric count as rushes.
- 18:37Speaker 1: Right.
- 18:38Speaker 2: When I was at Penn state, they always quarterback scrambles
- 18:40Speaker 2: counted towards pass plays because it's an extension of a
- 18:44Speaker 2: pass play.
- 18:45Speaker 1: Right.
- 18:45Speaker 2: I just think it's really important to make that, you know,
- 18:47Speaker 2: distinction right now that the rush is always going to
- 18:51Speaker 2: be artificially inflated through at the Eagles or by virtue
- 18:54Speaker 2: of Jalen Hurts being a good scrambling quarterback. So in
- 19:00Speaker 2: a lot of teams and a lot of ways that
- 19:02Speaker 2: they would do that, that EPA would be calculated towards
- 19:04Speaker 2: pass because it was a pass play.
- 19:06Speaker 1: It's a great distinction to make.
- 19:08Speaker 2: I think it's important to say that.
- 19:09Speaker 1: Sure, because I do think the EPA per pass would
- 19:11Speaker 1: be better if you took some of those huge runs
- 19:13Speaker 1: that Jalen Hurts had that were supposed to be passes
- 19:17Speaker 1: to bail the offense out of a bad situation. And
- 19:20Speaker 1: then likewise, they didn't have a great running game. And
- 19:23Speaker 1: even though the stats say it's a 0.10, which is
- 19:26Speaker 1: a positive number, and we know that there was one
- 19:29Speaker 1: very good Saquon Barkley run and a lot of brick
- 19:32Speaker 1: walls in between.
- 19:33Speaker 2: Yeah. But it's artificially inflated because of the scrambles. But again,
- 19:39Speaker 2: sacks count as pass.
- 19:41Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
- 19:42Speaker 2: So it's like you have to know that pass is always,
- 19:45Speaker 2: at least with the NFL pro, because that's who does
- 19:47Speaker 2: the EPA statistics, at least the ones that I put up.
- 19:49Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
- 19:51Speaker 2: They are going to be artificially deflated by sacks as well.
- 19:56Speaker 2: And sacks are pretty, and sacks interceptions are the highest
- 20:00Speaker 2: EPA killers. It makes sense that they are, but Just
- 20:04Speaker 2: know that that's why you see the negative numbers more
- 20:07Speaker 2: frequently in pass and you see higher numbers in rush.
- 20:11Speaker 2: I think that's just really important to keep that mindset.
- 20:13Speaker 1: For sure. The next two are, again, somewhat become difficult
- 20:19Speaker 1: to reconcile, right? Because your time to throw for Jalen
- 20:22Speaker 1: Hurts was 3.26 seconds. Time to pressure was 3.32. So
- 20:27Speaker 1: he was getting rid of the ball faster than he
- 20:29Speaker 1: was being pressured, correct? That's why it's a positive. Number at. 06?
- 20:33Speaker 2: It is, but it's unsustainable. Him holding the ball that
- 20:36Speaker 2: long will not work. It will not work. It just won't.
- 20:40Speaker 2: I mean, it was obvious he was just holding on
- 20:42Speaker 2: the ball too long. And for an offense that's supposed
- 20:45Speaker 2: to be rhythm, it's supposed to be like a rhythm offense.
- 20:47Speaker 2: We talked about that all offseason. He has to get
- 20:50Speaker 2: in rhythm. There has to be some adjustments made that
- 20:52Speaker 2: hopefully we'll see throughout the season. But you cannot be
- 20:55Speaker 2: successful holding the ball that long. You just can't be.
- 20:57Speaker 1: Do the runs count in this as well, though?
- 21:00Speaker 2: It's just time to throw.
- 21:02Speaker 1: Just time to throw. Okay. So the quarterback, you have
- 21:05Speaker 1: to throw the ball. No, that's what I meant. That's
- 21:07Speaker 1: what I meant to the quarterback.
- 21:09Speaker 2: You have to throw it. You have to throw it.
- 21:10Speaker 2: You're right. Yes.
- 21:11Speaker 1: Okay.
- 21:11Speaker 2: Sorry. My apologies.
- 21:12Speaker 1: No, no, that's okay.
- 21:13Speaker 2: It has to be thrown. Yeah. But time to pressure
- 21:17Speaker 2: does not account for that. Necessarily.
- 21:21Speaker 1: Right. Yeah, I mean, it's just interesting. It felt like
- 21:23Speaker 1: he was under pressure because of the issues they were
- 21:25Speaker 1: having up front and with the Durante Jones style of
- 21:28Speaker 1: Brian Flores style, I should say, defense that Durante Jones
- 21:31Speaker 1: was running. There were some really good pass protection moments.
- 21:37Speaker 1: There were also some other ones where there were throws
- 21:39Speaker 1: under duress.
- 21:40Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a very good way.
- 21:42Speaker 1: As shown by the QB percent, like the pressure percentage
- 21:45Speaker 1: up at 36%, which is higher than last year's.
- 21:49Speaker 2: And so was the sack percentage. I mean, that's the
- 21:52Speaker 2: big difference between the commander's defense and the Eagles defense.
- 21:54Speaker 2: The Eagles defense pressured a lot more, but the commander's
- 21:57Speaker 2: defense converted it into sacks. And the Eagles defense really
- 22:01Speaker 2: didn't do that. And it's hard because Jaden Daniels is
- 22:04Speaker 2: a difficult quarterback to tackle. Not that Jalen Hurts isn't,
- 22:08Speaker 2: but I just think that that is part of the reason.
- 22:11Speaker 1: Yeah. The average separation, I don't know what to make
- 22:16Speaker 1: of this one because... We don't want to overreact to
- 22:19Speaker 1: anything in week one. But the commander's defense, secondary especially,
- 22:23Speaker 1: not very good. You know, they were out their best corner.
- 22:27Speaker 1: We did note that there were some times that Jalen
- 22:29Speaker 1: had to throw the ball. And average separation being a 2.8.
- 22:32Speaker 1: You know, this is the first game in the post-A.J.
- 22:34Speaker 1: Brown era. And, yes, there were some good spots from,
- 22:39Speaker 1: of course, from Dontavion Wicks, right, and, of course, Dallas Goddard.
- 22:42Speaker 1: But the choppiness and then the overall, you know, I've
- 22:45Speaker 1: gone through some of the tape and, you know, guys like,
- 22:48Speaker 1: and we know Devontae Smith can get open, but it
- 22:52Speaker 1: just felt like you're– the Goddard ones felt schematically open,
- 22:56Speaker 1: which is great. You want that from your offensive coordinator.
- 22:58Speaker 1: But guys just winning, didn't see a whole lot of that.
- 23:02Speaker 2: No, you didn't. And it is a little bit concerning,
- 23:05Speaker 2: but at the same time, it is a whole– it's
- 23:09Speaker 2: a process, right? There's a whole new offense. I want
- 23:11Speaker 2: to give it a little bit more time before I
- 23:13Speaker 2: make a snap judgment. For sure. But if you see
- 23:15Speaker 2: that keep consistently throughout the season– there is cause for concern.
- 23:19Speaker 2: Even if you see it in week four, like that's
- 23:21Speaker 2: the number, that's the average, I would be concerned.
- 23:23Speaker 1: I mean, if you took out– not that you should
- 23:25Speaker 1: ever take something out for the sake of it, but sometimes,
- 23:28Speaker 1: you know, like if you take out the Saquon Barkley
- 23:30Speaker 1: 42-yard run, you can tell there was not a very
- 23:32Speaker 1: good running game, right? If you took out the two
- 23:35Speaker 1: catches that Wicks made where he had clear separation, you know,
- 23:39Speaker 1: the touchdown and the 64-yarder, I just can't think of
- 23:43Speaker 1: a– other than maybe the Goddard– One, I don't know.
- 23:46Speaker 1: That's a zone, you know, so it's not necessarily man coverage.
- 23:50Speaker 1: He just was a great throw by Hurts. He put
- 23:52Speaker 1: it right between the corner and the safety. And then,
- 23:53Speaker 1: of course, the touchdown. The second one was half the
- 23:57Speaker 1: commander's defense thought he was offside, so they fell asleep.
- 24:00Speaker 1: But there just was not a lot of those moments
- 24:04Speaker 1: where you– as much as we made fun of the
- 24:06Speaker 1: Eagles offense and criticized it last year, A.J. Brown certainly
- 24:09Speaker 1: caught enough hitches in one-on-one situations to know he could
- 24:13Speaker 1: get that separation there and make a play.
- 24:15Speaker 2: Right. And even if there wasn't separation, AJ Brown seemed
- 24:18Speaker 2: to be making those catches anyway.
- 24:19Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 24:20Speaker 2: Not that Devonta Smith isn't capable of that, but it's
- 24:22Speaker 2: just having two options that could do that.
- 24:24Speaker 1: Right. Cause he was clouded. He was, he was, there
- 24:26Speaker 1: was so much attention. The Makai lemon's going to have
- 24:28Speaker 1: to like develop here as the year goes on. It's just,
- 24:31Speaker 1: it has to happen for this team to be what
- 24:33Speaker 1: it wants to be.
- 24:34Speaker 2: There were a couple of plays where I thought lemon
- 24:36Speaker 2: won the rep and he just, there was no time
- 24:38Speaker 2: for Hertz or Hertz. Wasn't he already passed that in
- 24:40Speaker 2: the progression. So I'm cautiously optimistic with lemon. I know,
- 24:45Speaker 2: His stat line is historically bad. I think he finished
- 24:48Speaker 2: with negative receiving yards. So historically bad there. But at
- 24:53Speaker 2: the same time, I am not ready to give up
- 24:56Speaker 2: a lemon.
- 24:58Speaker 1: Got it. Well, the reason why we can be concerned
- 25:02Speaker 1: about the run success or the run data is because
- 25:07Speaker 1: Landon Dickerson had a terrible game. Cam Jurgens did not
- 25:10Speaker 1: play well. But we know now that Landon Dickerson's on IR. Yeah.
- 25:13Speaker 1: And it's going to be four games with most likely
- 25:15Speaker 1: Drew Kendall at left guard. And Sam, let me just
- 25:18Speaker 1: tell you, when you're already on that in week two
- 25:22Speaker 1: and your next guy up is now Willie Lampkin, who
- 25:25Speaker 1: is a nice camp story. But man, if you have
- 25:27Speaker 1: to start Willie Lampkin and Drew Kendall by week three
- 25:31Speaker 1: or something like that because there was another injury, then boy,
- 25:34Speaker 1: you're dangerous. It's a rough situation right now for the Eagles.
- 25:39Speaker 2: It is. And I spent a lot of time watching
- 25:42Speaker 2: Dickerson's tape And it's, it's just, it's a shame because like,
- 25:46Speaker 2: I didn't think he loafed on it. I think it
- 25:48Speaker 2: was all high effort. He just wasn't moving the same way.
- 25:52Speaker 2: It just, it was a shame. It was really hard
- 25:54Speaker 2: to watch.
- 25:55Speaker 1: He looked like a statue trying to block moving objects.
- 25:58Speaker 1: It really was tough. Yeah.
- 25:59Speaker 2: That's a really good way to put it. That's a
- 26:01Speaker 2: really good way to put it. It's, it's a shame. Like,
- 26:03Speaker 2: and it's a shame because I don't want, I don't
- 26:04Speaker 2: want to talk badly on him because he was such
- 26:06Speaker 2: an integral part of, you know, the Eagles run in 24.
- 26:10Speaker 2: And I, I just, I think that, Hopefully he gets healthy.
- 26:14Speaker 2: I mean, he just, he looks like a shell of
- 26:16Speaker 2: himself and it's hard to watch. Yeah.
- 26:19Speaker 1: You know, I try to ignore like social media comments,
- 26:21Speaker 1: but I couldn't help but see some. And listen, I
- 26:23Speaker 1: get it. He shouldn't be playing. He's, he's a liability. He's,
- 26:28Speaker 1: he was the first to admit that he said that,
- 26:30Speaker 1: but like people saying, you know, get this guy, the
- 26:33Speaker 1: F off the field, this effing guy is wash his cookies. So,
- 26:36Speaker 1: I mean, what this guy won a Superbowl for you.
- 26:39Speaker 1: He played in three Pro Bowls. I mean, he, he's,
- 26:42Speaker 1: gave you everything he had. I mean, he could at
- 26:44Speaker 1: least be respectful about the man's decline, but you know,
- 26:48Speaker 1: what am I?
- 26:48Speaker 2: They restructured him. They restructured him.
- 26:51Speaker 1: Right.
- 26:51Speaker 2: So, so yeah, I mean, he took a pay cut.
- 26:54Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. I think it was a pay cut.
- 26:56Speaker 2: But yeah, I will never forget his pirouette in the
- 27:00Speaker 2: super bowl to on that.
- 27:02Speaker 1: Oh yes.
- 27:03Speaker 2: I've never seen anything quite like that. And it's just
- 27:06Speaker 2: thinking that guy and what we saw on Sunday, it's
- 27:08Speaker 2: just there. It's it's night and day. It's really a shame.
- 27:12Speaker 1: Sam, I also think there's legitimate questions about if he
- 27:15Speaker 1: is healthy, his fit in this style of offense with
- 27:19Speaker 1: a lot more zone running. I mean, this guy's a
- 27:21Speaker 1: road grader. He was perfect for running up the gut.
- 27:25Speaker 1: I just don't know that this is the perfect kind
- 27:28Speaker 1: of offense for him to function in, even if he's healthy.
- 27:30Speaker 1: That will be determined when he comes back.
- 27:33Speaker 2: Absolutely. I mean, at least they were still able to
- 27:35Speaker 2: get the win. I mean, he was not the best
- 27:39Speaker 2: version of himself, but you know, hopefully he gets better and,
- 27:42Speaker 2: you know, can figure it out and maybe figure a
- 27:44Speaker 2: way to fit in this offense a little bit.
- 27:46Speaker 1: I don't know.
- 27:46Speaker 2: I think you're going to raise concerns though.
- 27:49Speaker 1: And obviously the biggest concern is that their run success
- 27:51Speaker 1: rate was lower than last year's at 40% and that
- 27:54Speaker 1: they faced far fewer stacked boxes and had a lower
- 28:00Speaker 1: 12% of stack box compared to 32% last year means
- 28:03Speaker 1: that they were basically being invited to run. They did
- 28:05Speaker 1: run and they still didn't have The same success.
- 28:08Speaker 2: Exactly. I mean, the stuff rate is less too, but
- 28:11Speaker 2: I mean, that would correspond with less stacked boxes. So
- 28:14Speaker 2: it's like, right. It's kind of negligible. I mean, it's
- 28:16Speaker 2: worth mentioning, but it's kind of negligible. It's what you'd expect.
- 28:19Speaker 2: You'd expect the success to be somewhat higher though. Like
- 28:21Speaker 2: you said. Yep.
- 28:23Speaker 1: All right. So this chart here, I really like, and
- 28:27Speaker 1: this is the offense by efficiency by personnel. And I
- 28:31Speaker 1: like it because we get to see a breakdown that
- 28:33Speaker 1: you put together of what personnel formations they were in. 11, 12,
- 28:37Speaker 1: or 13. And for now that's, that's probably going to be,
- 28:40Speaker 1: we're not, if we did the 49ers, right, we would
- 28:42Speaker 1: have like 21 and 22 and 11 and 12. We
- 28:46Speaker 1: did like five or six, seven different ones, but we
- 28:48Speaker 1: keep it nice and simple here in Philly. And I,
- 28:52Speaker 1: I was surprised. I asked you, I thought there would
- 28:54Speaker 1: be a little bit more 12 personnel. I think they
- 28:57Speaker 1: want to be, but their situation at tight end right
- 28:59Speaker 1: now with really only two guys, they want to play
- 29:02Speaker 1: Goddard and Munt, right. And Munt being one-dimensional is, makes
- 29:07Speaker 1: them lean toward the 11.
- 29:08Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, they were in 11 76% of the time. So,
- 29:12Speaker 2: I mean, that's– if I asked you at the beginning
- 29:14Speaker 2: of the season, assuming all the tight ends would be healthy,
- 29:16Speaker 2: what do you think the split would have been?
- 29:18Speaker 1: Oh, I would have thought they would have played– let's see.
- 29:25Speaker 1: What was the percentage of 11 they were at? That
- 29:27Speaker 1: was 38%? No, no, no. 11, they were 76%.
- 29:28Speaker 2: 76%.
- 29:28Speaker 1: I would have thought it.
- 29:29Speaker 2: Would be closer to like 65%.
- 29:35Speaker 1: That's what i'd expect to yeah yeah yeah and it
- 29:40Speaker 1: might get there once calcaterra gets healthy and and maybe
- 29:43Speaker 1: if stowers can can get or if they sign zack
- 29:46Speaker 1: or something of that nature they address this position because
- 29:49Speaker 1: i do think they want to run more 12 personnel
- 29:51Speaker 1: the fact that they ran almost the same number of
- 29:54Speaker 1: running plays Out of both formations, though, even though they
- 29:57Speaker 1: were more heavily in 11, tells me, like, they were–
- 30:00Speaker 1: that Shawano was at least trying to not be telegraphic. Yeah.
- 30:03Speaker 2: I mean, definitely. I mean, it was interesting. Like you said,
- 30:06Speaker 2: that was a big point I was going to try
- 30:08Speaker 2: to make is that the run plays out of 11
- 30:11Speaker 2: and 12 identical, but the pass plays, you know, they
- 30:14Speaker 2: had 29 pass plays out of 11 and only four
- 30:18Speaker 2: out of 12 and 13 combined.
- 30:20Speaker 1: Right.
- 30:21Speaker 2: Right. And by the way, the 13 one was, I
- 30:23Speaker 2: believe the Wicks touchdown.
- 30:25Speaker 1: It was, it was. And listen, that was really, that's
- 30:28Speaker 1: a Sean Mannion feather in the cap play because to
- 30:31Speaker 1: get into the semantics of it really quickly, he came
- 30:35Speaker 1: out as the only snap of 13 personnel, three tight ends.
- 30:38Speaker 1: By doing that, they knew that Washington was going to
- 30:41Speaker 1: come out in their run defense because when the Eagles
- 30:45Speaker 1: were in 12, there were times that Washington was in nickel.
- 30:48Speaker 1: But this time he was sure that, 13, three tight ends,
- 30:52Speaker 1: you know, one ride, only one wide receiver out there.
- 30:54Speaker 1: They're going to come out in their base defense. And
- 30:57Speaker 1: when they're in base, that's when Mike Sanders still plays
- 30:59Speaker 1: outside when a nickel, he moves inside the slot. Right.
- 31:03Speaker 1: But they wanted him outside to get matched up against
- 31:06Speaker 1: Dontavia and Wicks. And sure enough, that was the, the
- 31:09Speaker 1: matchup they got and hurts trusted Wicks with a beautiful
- 31:14Speaker 1: throw because the ball really was intended to go to
- 31:18Speaker 1: Goddard who was open, but Hurts made a great read
- 31:21Speaker 1: on it and saw that Sam Russell's back was facing
- 31:24Speaker 1: him and that the safety leverage was the opposite direction,
- 31:27Speaker 1: and he just threw a ball that he knew only
- 31:29Speaker 1: Wicks could get, and Wicks got it.
- 31:31Speaker 2: He did. Yeah. Now, were you surprised that Wicks was
- 31:36Speaker 2: the receiver out there and it wasn't Devonta Smith?
- 31:39Speaker 1: No, because I think if you put– because Wicks is
- 31:42Speaker 1: a– again, you're trying to give that look of running
- 31:45Speaker 1: the ball, right? Sure. And Wicks is a bigger, stronger
- 31:48Speaker 1: guy than– davante smith and maybe if you put davante
- 31:52Speaker 1: out there instead the defensive coordinator says i smell something
- 31:57Speaker 1: here you know like you just want to make sure
- 31:59Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator puts his base package on the field
- 32:03Speaker 1: and plus and again the height if you know sandra
- 32:08Speaker 1: still is going to be on the outside and he's
- 32:09Speaker 1: what five nine five ten he's a short guy and
- 32:12Speaker 1: wicks is six two you give yourself that event, but again,
- 32:16Speaker 1: he was supposed to be a clear out. It really
- 32:18Speaker 1: was supposed to go to Goddard. So it really doesn't
- 32:20Speaker 1: matter what wide receiver you have there, but.
- 32:22Speaker 2: I just think it's interesting. And I think it's worth
- 32:23Speaker 2: making that point. Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
- 32:26Speaker 1: Yeah. By putting Wicks out there, I think he guaranteed
- 32:29Speaker 1: he was going to get the defensive look from, from
- 32:31Speaker 1: the commanders.
- 32:32Speaker 2: Absolutely. I will say before we move on, they, their
- 32:37Speaker 2: total success rate on all plays was 42%. Okay. which
- 32:42Speaker 2: is pretty solid. I mean, it's not terrible. Again, efficiency,
- 32:46Speaker 2: the way at least I do it the way I
- 32:48Speaker 2: did it at Penn State, which is you have to
- 32:50Speaker 2: pick up 40% on first down, 50% on second down
- 32:54Speaker 2: or more, obviously, all of it on third and all
- 32:57Speaker 2: of it on fourth. If you meet that criteria, it
- 32:59Speaker 2: counts as a successful play. That's like how you keep
- 33:02Speaker 2: on schedule. And again, it's 40% on first down because
- 33:06Speaker 2: not all first downs are created equal. It's usually first
- 33:08Speaker 2: and 10% four yards. But if you're in like first
- 33:10Speaker 2: and goal, or you have a penalty, it's first and
- 33:13Speaker 2: five or first and 15. Like that's where that kind
- 33:15Speaker 2: of comes in and those percentages come in.
- 33:17Speaker 1: Right.
- 33:17Speaker 2: So out of 11, they were had success rate a
- 33:20Speaker 2: little bit more than they're all of them at 42.1.
- 33:24Speaker 2: They were less successful on at 12 at 36. And
- 33:27Speaker 2: obviously they only had the one passing play on 13
- 33:30Speaker 2: and they were a hundred percent successful.
- 33:32Speaker 1: That's right. They did have decent run success. I suppose
- 33:35Speaker 1: you would say out of 11 personnel with a 56%.
- 33:36Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 33:38Speaker 1: Definitely efficiency rate. So there, there were some, yeah, it
- 33:41Speaker 1: wasn't a great running game, but there were some positives there.
- 33:44Speaker 1: And I, I'm guessing, I think the Saquon 43 yarder
- 33:47Speaker 1: did come out of 11.
- 33:47Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, I did. So.
- 33:50Speaker 1: All right.
- 33:51Speaker 2: Good stuff.
- 33:52Speaker 1: Speaking of that, speaking of Saquon, go ahead.
- 33:56Speaker 2: Well, there, there's his rush chart. So as you can see,
- 33:59Speaker 2: I mean, there, there wasn't a lot besides that one
- 34:03Speaker 2: run that you can see on the right side, if
- 34:05Speaker 2: you're looking at the chart.
- 34:06Speaker 1: Right.
- 34:07Speaker 2: But, Barkley recorded 15 rushes for 83 yards, which is 5.5
- 34:11Speaker 2: yards per attempt. But half of them came on that
- 34:14Speaker 2: 43-yard rush in the second quarter, and it was his
- 34:17Speaker 2: only explosive run of the day. And usually the way
- 34:20Speaker 2: we measured explosive runs, at least at Penn State, was
- 34:23Speaker 2: 12 yards. I don't know what NFL Pro uses for
- 34:27Speaker 2: an explosive run. I think it was 12 yards or
- 34:30Speaker 2: a– it was either– or a first– down for a
- 34:35Speaker 2: lot or no or touchdown sorry because first down it
- 34:37Speaker 2: was 12 yards or touchdown that's what it was at
- 34:39Speaker 2: Penn State but I don't know how they do it
- 34:41Speaker 2: um here uh I will say he was contacted behind
- 34:45Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage on half of his seven out
- 34:47Speaker 2: of 14 other carries besides that one long run uh
- 34:52Speaker 2: so you know he got 41 yards out of that
- 34:55Speaker 2: um But he forced five missed tackles and gained 78
- 35:00Speaker 2: out of his 83 rushing yards after contact. So he
- 35:02Speaker 2: only had five yards before contact.
- 35:05Speaker 1: Wow.
- 35:06Speaker 2: So that's not good.
- 35:07Speaker 1: No, it's good for Saquon. He made a lot out
- 35:09Speaker 1: of little, but that's hard to go 17 games of
- 35:12Speaker 1: doing that. So they got to figure things out there.
- 35:14Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. But he did. Well, Hurts actually ended up
- 35:17Speaker 2: leading the team in rushing EPA with plus 4.9. But again,
- 35:21Speaker 2: that factors in the quarterback scrambles. So you're going to
- 35:24Speaker 2: see Hertz, you know, have a high rushing EPA solely
- 35:28Speaker 2: for that purpose. Yep.
- 35:29Speaker 1: He has a great sense for when to tuck and run.
- 35:31Speaker 1: He got himself out of some really bad situations.
- 35:34Speaker 2: Speaking of Hertz.
- 35:36Speaker 1: Good translation. Good segue.
- 35:39Speaker 2: There's his chart. Are you surprised with the chart with
- 35:42Speaker 2: the new offense? I guess that's where I want to
- 35:43Speaker 2: start this.
- 35:44Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you do see a couple of completions.
- 35:50Speaker 1: I don't want to say you see one between the numbers,
- 35:52Speaker 1: which is always good. I think. in the past we
- 35:55Speaker 1: would see the green dots of completions far more peppered
- 35:59Speaker 1: on either the left side or the right side, not
- 36:01Speaker 1: as spread out as we see it here. The sideline
- 36:05Speaker 1: ones are good because that's, that's a continuation of what
- 36:07Speaker 1: he does well. So we'll see. And again, There's only
- 36:12Speaker 1: 14 completions. So it's not like we have a huge
- 36:15Speaker 1: sample size of completions to sort of measure him against.
- 36:18Speaker 2: Absolutely. That's very well said. But I thought that'd be
- 36:20Speaker 2: a fun way to kind of start this. But a
- 36:23Speaker 2: little bit more detail on Hertz. He completed six out
- 36:25Speaker 2: of nine downfield pass attempts, which is just 10 plus
- 36:29Speaker 2: air yards for 176 yards and three touchdowns. This is
- 36:33Speaker 2: Hertz's 25th game since 2022 with at least three touchdowns.
- 36:38Speaker 2: which is the second most in the NFL behind Josh Allen,
- 36:41Speaker 2: who has 33 games of such streak. And then this
- 36:46Speaker 2: was the eighth time that all three touchdowns came from
- 36:50Speaker 2: the air out of his 25. Wow. That's interesting.
- 36:55Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true because he has so many rushing touchdowns.
- 36:57Speaker 1: I just wouldn't think it was only the eighth time.
- 36:59Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't have either, but it's interesting.
- 37:02Speaker 1: Right.
- 37:03Speaker 2: But Goddard, unsurprisingly, led the team in receiving EPA. with
- 37:07Speaker 2: a positive 8.3, followed by Wicks, who had a positive 3.
- 37:12Speaker 2: And then on the back end, Lemon and Barkley had
- 37:15Speaker 2: the lowest receiving EPA, with minus 4.3 and minus 1.7, respectively. Which, again,
- 37:23Speaker 2: EPA just measures your likelihood to score, essentially, by each
- 37:28Speaker 2: play you make, is that going to add or take
- 37:31Speaker 2: away the opportunity to score points? That's kind of a
- 37:34Speaker 2: simple way to look at it.
- 37:35Speaker 1: Sure. And with lemon, when you're only catches five yards
- 37:37Speaker 1: behind the line of scrimmage and when you're tackled, that's
- 37:40Speaker 1: going to hurt your EPA.
- 37:41Speaker 2: Exactly. Take essentially taking points away from the drive. Right.
- 37:46Speaker 1: All right. We'll go through the old line really quickly.
- 37:49Speaker 1: Not a whole lot to say other, you know, obviously
- 37:51Speaker 1: we see that land and Dickerson here is allowed for pressures.
- 37:53Speaker 1: We talked about it already, a sack, three hurries. I
- 37:58Speaker 1: see now Lane Johnson didn't get credited for a hurry,
- 38:00Speaker 1: but there was a time where he was, Like, Landon
- 38:04Speaker 1: Dickerson blew it also, but you see Landon getting, like,
- 38:08Speaker 1: muscled back right into the quarterback. I thought he would
- 38:10Speaker 1: have been charted with at least one hurry allowed.
- 38:12Speaker 2: Yeah, so it just depends on which site you look at.
- 38:17Speaker 2: I just used PFF here, but I didn't necessarily agree
- 38:20Speaker 2: with it either. I thought there were a couple that
- 38:22Speaker 2: could have been constituted hurries. But either way, that's.
- 38:26Speaker 1: And interestingly, when you get a holding call in pass pro,
- 38:29Speaker 1: like Juergens had at least one and maybe two in
- 38:32Speaker 1: pass pro– you would think that that would be a hurry.
- 38:36Speaker 1: If a center gets called up holding, that means he's
- 38:38Speaker 1: beaten quickly by the interior lineman who's getting right at
- 38:41Speaker 1: your quarterback.
- 38:42Speaker 2: Exactly. All right.
- 38:46Speaker 1: You like Dallas Goddard. That's your star of the stat sheet?
- 38:49Speaker 2: At least on the offense. I'm going to try to
- 38:50Speaker 2: do one for both if possible. Again, you only get
- 38:55Speaker 2: it if you win. That's right. Or if there was
- 38:57Speaker 2: like a Herculean effort, we can give it. But I
- 39:00Speaker 2: don't like to give it unless there's a win. but
- 39:03Speaker 2: it just, it's kind of worth looking at kind of
- 39:05Speaker 2: what he did, you know, four receptions, five targets, 77 yards,
- 39:08Speaker 2: two touchdowns, 19.3 yards per reception, um, 8.9% completion percentage
- 39:15Speaker 2: over expectation. Again, that's just a measure of like, can
- 39:19Speaker 2: you make routine catches? Are you making difficult catches? He
- 39:21Speaker 2: was making pretty difficult catches at least by that metric.
- 39:24Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 39:25Speaker 2: Um, which is second on team, um, 8.3 expected points
- 39:30Speaker 2: added which led the team basically he added more than
- 39:34Speaker 2: a touchdown by obviously is just by touching the ball
- 39:38Speaker 2: which again he had two touchdowns so that's just worth
- 39:40Speaker 2: saying um and then he had 34 yards after catch
- 39:45Speaker 2: um plus 15 yards after catch over expected. So he
- 39:50Speaker 2: got 15 more yards than what would be expected by
- 39:52Speaker 2: an average player. And then he led the team in
- 39:55Speaker 2: average separation with 3.2 yards.
- 39:58Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a great game for him. And obviously
- 40:00Speaker 1: the 44 yard or 45 yard and made it probably
- 40:04Speaker 1: helped out a lot of these categories. It was a
- 40:05Speaker 1: little pitch and catch and he made a great pivot
- 40:08Speaker 1: to turn it into a touchdown.
- 40:09Speaker 2: Yes.
- 40:11Speaker 1: All right. Eagles defense. Obviously the numbers look better than
- 40:16Speaker 1: they did. last year in terms of last year's entire
- 40:19Speaker 1: year versus this game.
- 40:21Speaker 2: Yes, which is fair. I mean, I will say that, again,
- 40:27Speaker 2: the rush statistics are inflated. Did I say that backwards,
- 40:30Speaker 2: by the way?
- 40:32Speaker 1: What I meant to say is last year's defense metrics
- 40:35Speaker 1: were better than this game. I may have accidentally said
- 40:38Speaker 1: that in reverse.
- 40:39Speaker 2: I knew what you were saying, but that's the way
- 40:42Speaker 2: I was kind of going with it. I will say that, though,
- 40:45Speaker 2: the rush statistics are you know, they're impacted significantly by
- 40:50Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels scrambling again. So I think the Eagles did
- 40:55Speaker 2: a really good job on run defense, I felt. I
- 40:58Speaker 2: will say that some of the past defense, not so great.
- 41:01Speaker 2: We'll talk a little bit more about that. And I
- 41:03Speaker 2: will say part of the issue is that they just
- 41:06Speaker 2: couldn't convert the pressures into sacks. And it's just, that
- 41:09Speaker 2: was the worst part. And That'll be something to kind
- 41:12Speaker 2: of watch throughout the year, but they're going to have
- 41:14Speaker 2: to find a way. I mean, 50% quarterback pressure is insane.
- 41:17Speaker 2: That is incredible percentage.
- 41:20Speaker 1: Yes.
- 41:21Speaker 2: But only getting 2.6% sack rate is not. It's just not.
- 41:26Speaker 1: Right. You weren't turning your pressure into sacks, and then
- 41:28Speaker 1: they were making plays off of it.
- 41:29Speaker 2: Exactly.
- 41:30Speaker 1: Yeah. I would say, I think I kind of halfway
- 41:33Speaker 1: agree on the rushing defense. If you look, if you
- 41:37Speaker 1: add up their stats, right, Merritt and– I'm taking Daniels
- 41:42Speaker 1: out of it. Merritt and Rashad White combined to go
- 41:45Speaker 1: over 100 yards. Yeah, so not– To me, like Merritt
- 41:48Speaker 1: opened up the game with an 11-yard run, and I
- 41:50Speaker 1: thought a couple guys got pushed out of their gaps.
- 41:53Speaker 1: I think they can be better against the run with
- 41:55Speaker 1: the personnel that they have.
- 41:57Speaker 2: Let's say it was solid. I think maybe that's a
- 42:00Speaker 2: better word.
- 42:00Speaker 1: Solid. Yeah, solid.
- 42:02Speaker 2: Solid.
- 42:02Speaker 1: There weren't that many explosives. There weren't– yeah, that's fine.
- 42:06Speaker 1: Solid's fine. Solid's good.
- 42:07Speaker 2: I mean, they did have, you know, efficient runs. Like
- 42:10Speaker 2: they did have kept the drive on schedule, but overall they,
- 42:14Speaker 2: they did a good job containing them to, you know,
- 42:17Speaker 2: shorter gains.
- 42:18Speaker 1: Right. All right. So we mentioned the great 50% pressure percentage,
- 42:25Speaker 1: but only 2% sack percentage. Not great. Vic even said
- 42:28Speaker 1: he wasn't happy with the pass rush. He only blitz,
- 42:31Speaker 1: but Vic, you know, you only blitz 21% of the time,
- 42:33Speaker 1: which is typical Vic Fangio. I felt, if there was
- 42:37Speaker 1: something to criticize from Vic, especially in the fourth quarter is, well,
- 42:40Speaker 1: you see that you're getting a lot of great pressure.
- 42:43Speaker 1: You're not getting sacks. Maybe you need to switch something up,
- 42:46Speaker 1: maybe throw a guy at the quarterback. I mean, he
- 42:49Speaker 1: did have one zero pressure. That was nice to see,
- 42:51Speaker 1: but that was in the third quarter.
- 42:53Speaker 2: Sure. I think that's like the main points to talk
- 42:56Speaker 2: about here. I think we can go kind of into,
- 42:58Speaker 2: because you speaking of Vic, you're setting me up perfectly
- 43:01Speaker 2: for this pod today.
- 43:02Speaker 1: Oh, okay.
- 43:03Speaker 2: Good.
- 43:04Speaker 1: Love it.
- 43:05Speaker 2: So the Fangio defense held the Commanders to 295 total yards.
- 43:09Speaker 2: This is the 19th game holding their opponent under 300
- 43:13Speaker 2: yards since they hired Fangio in 2024, which is the
- 43:17Speaker 2: second most in the NFL behind the Seahawks, who have
- 43:19Speaker 2: 21 games of such per NFL next-gen stats.
- 43:23Speaker 1: Interesting. Wow, that's really– well, I mean, it's like surprising
- 43:26Speaker 1: but not surprising, right? Because it's Fangio.
- 43:28Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and speaking of, Fangio pressured Daniels 19 times,
- 43:32Speaker 2: which is the second most in any game since Fangio
- 43:34Speaker 2: took over the defensive coordinator role, per also next-gen stats. Yeah.
- 43:39Speaker 1: You know, we thought that left side of the Washington
- 43:41Speaker 1: line gave up some pressure. I thought the right side
- 43:44Speaker 1: with Cosme and Connerly did pretty good, though.
- 43:49Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 43:49Speaker 1: Especially Cosme against Jalen Carter. Cosme won, which is.
- 43:54Speaker 2: We'll talk about that.
- 43:55Speaker 1: Don't worry. We will talk about that, so.
- 43:59Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about their past defense in general.
- 44:03Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels was pressured on 19 out of 38 dropbacks, again, 50%.
- 44:06Speaker 2: And then if you look at his statistics, when he
- 44:10Speaker 2: had a clean pocket, he was 15 for 19 for
- 44:14Speaker 2: 138 yards and one touchdown. But when he was under pressure,
- 44:17Speaker 2: it was only three for 15 for 26 yards and
- 44:19Speaker 2: one touchdown. But both touchdowns were thrown against the blitz.
- 44:24Speaker 2: So he's blitzed under both touchdowns. But one of them,
- 44:27Speaker 2: they kept the pocket clean. The other one, they were
- 44:30Speaker 2: able to pressure him. So sure. I think that's interesting
- 44:33Speaker 2: just as a note and a little nugget. We'll keep
- 44:36Speaker 2: track of that a little bit more as the season
- 44:37Speaker 2: goes on. Yeah.
- 44:38Speaker 1: I mean, it's tough. Like when you're in charge of
- 44:40Speaker 1: the defense, if you're like, well, we did our job
- 44:42Speaker 1: because when we put them under pressure, he did not
- 44:45Speaker 1: perform well, three of 15. However, both of his touchdowns
- 44:48Speaker 1: were thrown against our blitzes. And then when we couldn't
- 44:52Speaker 1: check pressure, he, he, had a nice clean pocket, he
- 44:55Speaker 1: would do well. So he's a good quarterback.
- 44:58Speaker 2: Yeah, he is. He is a really good quarterback for sure.
- 45:00Speaker 1: Yeah. All right. What do you make of the top
- 45:03Speaker 1: pass rushing stats here?
- 45:05Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I definitely felt better about the edge
- 45:12Speaker 2: a little bit more than the interior defensive line. We'll
- 45:14Speaker 2: talk a little bit about it. It's they, they hunt
- 45:18Speaker 2: and Smith did a pretty good job, at least in
- 45:21Speaker 2: winning their, you know, their opportunities and then converting into pressures.
- 45:26Speaker 2: I mean, they had 13 pressures between the two of them. Unfortunately,
- 45:30Speaker 2: they were all hurries, but I mean, they both had
- 45:34Speaker 2: pretty good get offs. They both were sub 0.9 seconds,
- 45:37Speaker 2: which again on edge, you're going to want to be
- 45:40Speaker 2: pretty close to 0.85, if not under. So they both,
- 45:44Speaker 2: I felt did a pretty good job in that regard.
- 45:46Speaker 1: Yeah. Both, both above average or elite at either 15.4
- 45:50Speaker 1: or 21%. So exactly.
- 45:50Speaker 2: Yeah.
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- 49:21Speaker 2: Yeah so i mean besides the jomo i don't i
- 49:24Speaker 2: don't feel great about any of the reps i mean
- 49:27Speaker 2: i think jordan davis did much better in run defense
- 49:31Speaker 2: but i mean that's not necessarily surprising um But Carter's
- 49:36Speaker 2: win percent at 2.9 is abysmal.
- 49:39Speaker 1: It is.
- 49:40Speaker 2: And you can make some excuses about double teams and stuff,
- 49:43Speaker 2: but it didn't look like the Carter we're used to,
- 49:47Speaker 2: at least the one that just got paid as much
- 49:49Speaker 2: money as he just got paid. Yeah.
- 49:51Speaker 1: And he wasn't double teamed as much as he often
- 49:54Speaker 1: is because the Eagles were stunting and twisting a lot.
- 49:56Speaker 1: So they were using the center and the left guard
- 49:59Speaker 1: to kind of handle Jalex Hunt's like, like it might've
- 50:02Speaker 1: started off as a double team on Carter, but as
- 50:04Speaker 1: soon as they saw Hunt coming around, then the center
- 50:08Speaker 1: would kind of come off and know he have to
- 50:09Speaker 1: take them. So there were plenty of one-on-ones for Carter.
- 50:12Speaker 1: He just didn't win them.
- 50:13Speaker 2: Yeah. Which is unfortunate to see. So, I mean, out
- 50:16Speaker 2: of 35 pass rushes, he only had three pressures. Yeah.
- 50:21Speaker 1: It's funny though. Our listeners get on me sometimes cause
- 50:23Speaker 1: they think I hype up, you know, the opponent too much.
- 50:25Speaker 1: And I said, Hey, look, I was saying, I know
- 50:27Speaker 1: that the Washington in the pregame show offensive line, got
- 50:31Speaker 1: beat up without Tunsell, but Cosme is a very good
- 50:33Speaker 1: right guard. He's been a good right guard for a while.
- 50:36Speaker 1: I don't know why we just ignore that. And Connerly,
- 50:38Speaker 1: I thought had a nice year at right tackle as
- 50:40Speaker 1: a rookie last year. He played left back for Oregon. So,
- 50:43Speaker 1: you know, sorry, but they're actually all right on the
- 50:48Speaker 1: right side.
- 50:48Speaker 2: Of the, but it's important to be objective. I mean,
- 50:50Speaker 2: that's like a big thing that we pride ourselves in
- 50:53Speaker 2: here at inside the birds for sure. I mean, would
- 50:56Speaker 2: we love it to say the Eagles are the best? Yes,
- 50:58Speaker 2: but we have to, it has to be true.
- 50:59Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not going to stretch it. It's got
- 51:02Speaker 1: to call like it is. I love your star of
- 51:04Speaker 1: the stat sheet. He was, I wrote about him for
- 51:06Speaker 1: Philly voice after the game, Zach Vaughn had an incredible,
- 51:10Speaker 1: incredible game.
- 51:11Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, this, this was a next gen stat
- 51:14Speaker 2: that they gave. He was targeted six times in coverage
- 51:16Speaker 2: and allowed three receptions for negative two yards with two
- 51:19Speaker 2: passes defended. Um, And that is interesting in and of itself,
- 51:23Speaker 2: but he's just one of two defenders since the start
- 51:25Speaker 2: of last season, the other being Denzel Ward, to face
- 51:28Speaker 2: five or more targets in a game and allow negative
- 51:31Speaker 2: receiving yards. And again, Denzel Ward, not a linebacker. So
- 51:36Speaker 2: very interesting to see that as a linebacker.
- 51:39Speaker 1: That is really interesting. I mean, he almost had that interception.
- 51:43Speaker 1: He was just everywhere. He was great.
- 51:45Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, he recorded 10 tackles and run defense,
- 51:47Speaker 2: including one TFL, and only missed one tackle the entire game.
- 51:51Speaker 2: And then he led the team in defensive stops, which, again,
- 51:54Speaker 2: the way NFL Pro designates a defensive stop is anything
- 51:58Speaker 2: that creates negative EPA. So he creates inefficiencies with seven.
- 52:04Speaker 1: Great game. Great overall game. Other standouts on defense. You know,
- 52:10Speaker 1: when you don't talk about them much, right, it's because
- 52:12Speaker 1: you know they do a good job, the corners, like
- 52:13Speaker 1: Mitchell and Willen. His debut for Willen. I know he
- 52:16Speaker 1: gave up one touchdown.
- 52:18Speaker 2: You know what? I'm going to say this. I know
- 52:22Speaker 2: what the stat says. That ball hit the ground. I'm
- 52:24Speaker 2: just saying. I understand he had control.
- 52:26Speaker 1: It did, but he had his hands on it. The
- 52:29Speaker 1: new rule is if your hands are underneath the ball,
- 52:31Speaker 1: it can do that. As long as the ball doesn't move.
- 52:33Speaker 2: I know. To have that count after how Rick Willen
- 52:37Speaker 2: played the entire game and have that be his lone blemish,
- 52:41Speaker 2: it didn't feel right. I thought he was phenomenal.
- 52:43Speaker 1: I really did. But I don't think anybody blames Will,
- 52:45Speaker 1: and they just say, hey, that's a great kind of
- 52:47Speaker 1: concentration catch, right? I mean, it was a good concentration catch.
- 52:51Speaker 1: It was.
- 52:51Speaker 2: It was. I mean, yeah, it definitely was. And then
- 52:55Speaker 2: this is no surprise to you, but Campbell having a sack,
- 52:59Speaker 2: you know, the only sack on the team. I mean,
- 53:01Speaker 2: we talked about it on preseason. I mean, are you
- 53:03Speaker 2: surprised by that?
- 53:04Speaker 1: That he had it or that he– The only person–
- 53:07Speaker 1: That they're using it that way. Well, it wasn't on
- 53:11Speaker 1: a blitz. It was on a Jaden Daniels kind of
- 53:14Speaker 1: scrambled out. I guess it's a sack, but he was
- 53:18Speaker 1: kind of, he might've been a spy. I don't know
- 53:20Speaker 1: how it was, but he tackled him just short of
- 53:23Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage on a run scramble. By the way,
- 53:26Speaker 1: Campbell had no idea he got credited for a sack.
- 53:29Speaker 1: That's really funny. After the game that that was his
- 53:31Speaker 1: first sack. So it was kind of funny.
- 53:34Speaker 2: Really interesting.
- 53:36Speaker 1: I assume you have Dajin here as notable for, for
- 53:39Speaker 1: not great reasons as opposed to the other three.
- 53:41Speaker 2: You know, and I'm sure you probably know more about
- 53:43Speaker 2: this than I do, but earlier when, when he got
- 53:46Speaker 2: rung earlier, like, and it was like, you know, pointed,
- 53:48Speaker 2: like he looked like he got banged up.
- 53:51Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 53:51Speaker 2: He looked like he got banged up for sure. Yeah. Yeah.
- 53:53Speaker 1: He didn't say it, you know, after the game, he
- 53:55Speaker 1: really said he struggled with his eye discipline, which has
- 53:59Speaker 1: sometimes got him in the past. And, we did talk
- 54:02Speaker 1: about the fact that there was no discernible tape from
- 54:05Speaker 1: David blow before. Like this was his first ever game
- 54:09Speaker 1: that he's called. So it was like, they didn't know
- 54:11Speaker 1: what they were getting all the time. Not an excuse.
- 54:14Speaker 1: I mean, he, he also like two of those three
- 54:16Speaker 1: plays came against digs. We can route up pretty much
- 54:19Speaker 1: any nickel corner in this league. So the Williams ones,
- 54:22Speaker 1: I think he was kicking.
- 54:23Speaker 2: Himself over for sure. And I, I think this is
- 54:27Speaker 2: not indicative of how his season is going to go.
- 54:29Speaker 2: I just, I think we have to discuss it. We
- 54:32Speaker 2: have to. To be objective, we have to discuss the
- 54:34Speaker 2: good and the bad.
- 54:35Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. You don't even have to say that we
- 54:37Speaker 1: have to because that's implied here on our show.
- 54:42Speaker 2: All right.
- 54:43Speaker 1: Good stuff. Really, really good stuff. And we will get
- 54:46Speaker 1: a preview of the Titans game coming up later this week.
- 54:50Speaker 1: Really look forward to doing that with you as well.
- 54:52Speaker 1: That's going to do it for this episode of Inside
- 54:55Speaker 1: the Data featuring Sam Finkel. I'm Jeff Mosher. We'll catch
- 54:58Speaker 1: you all on the next one.