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Total quiet and peace in BC politics | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: Political Capital Daily is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Airbnb.
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  Speaker 2: It's Thursday, September 17th, 2026, and.
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  Speaker 1: This is Political Capital Daily.
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  Speaker 2: Well, good morning.
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  Speaker 1: Welcome to Thursday in British Columbia politics, also known as
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  Speaker 1: ground zero for whatever is blowing up at this exact moment.
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  Speaker 1: As you listen to this, the ever-shifting landscape in BC
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  Speaker 1: politics shifting again. We've got early election speculation. We've got
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  Speaker 1: implosions in the BC Conservative Party. We have all sorts
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  Speaker 1: of things on tap this morning, a very fluid situation.
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  Speaker 1: This podcast lands today. in your pod box at 5 a.m.
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  Speaker 1: So check. Results may vary on what is occurring today.
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  Speaker 1: Some of what occurred last night still needs to play
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  Speaker 1: out this morning. We're going to get into that a
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  Speaker 1: little bit. Things you need to know in B.C. politics
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  Speaker 1: this morning. We'll start with the easy one.
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  Speaker 2: B.C.
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  Speaker 1: Conservative leader Carrie Lynn Finley is supposed to speak to
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  Speaker 1: the Union of B.C. Municipalities Convention this morning at 8.35 a.m.
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  Speaker 1: for around 20 minutes, assuming She makes it there as leader.
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  Speaker 1: That will be followed immediately by a media scrum, an
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  Speaker 1: actual scrum, an advisory from the BC Conservative Party that
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  Speaker 1: says media are encouraged to attend this event. Not the usual,
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  Speaker 1: why don't you go pound sand and die? How did
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  Speaker 1: you get this number? Why don't you take a long
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  Speaker 1: walk off a short pier media advisory? We're not talking
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  Speaker 1: about the BC Conservative comms wizard's that view the mainstream
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  Speaker 1: media as the Laurentian elite stooges who only get in
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  Speaker 1: the way of the leader. This is an actual invitation
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  Speaker 1: to speak to the Carrie Lynn Finley in person in Vancouver,
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  Speaker 1: so don't pass that up. That may actually occur. Very
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  Speaker 1: unusual for the BC Conservative Party. It's like somebody had
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  Speaker 1: a stroke at Conservative Party headquarters and sent out the
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  Speaker 1: wrong message. Anywho, that's what's on tap for this morning.
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  Speaker 1: Last night, a lot occurred in in BC politics, and
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  Speaker 1: it's still playing out this morning, an emergency BC Conservatives
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  Speaker 1: caucus meeting that we're still trying to get details on
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  Speaker 1: early this morning. It sounds serious with some serious allegations
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  Speaker 1: at play there involving, once again, the judgment of the leader,
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  Speaker 1: Carrie Lynn Finlay, and the impact on MLA's present and departed.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll see how that plays out. I have predicted
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  Speaker 1: before And I will predict again that Carolyn Finley is
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  Speaker 1: going nowhere, will not be resigning from the leadership of
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  Speaker 1: this party, and intends to stick around even if it
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  Speaker 1: burns down around her to a core group of supporters. Also,
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  Speaker 1: lots of rumblings last night. No official announcement as of
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  Speaker 1: this morning that Center BC and the Peter Party of
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  Speaker 1: Peter Milibar and his seven MLAs finding common ground to
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  Speaker 1: combine together potentially to with Milobar as leader and Mike
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  Speaker 1: Bernier as a candidate. This seems like it was inevitable
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  Speaker 1: as the parties try to avoid further splitting the already
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  Speaker 1: split centre-right vote. Now, Peter Milobar has told me before,
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  Speaker 1: and I've written about it, he does not like the
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  Speaker 1: name Centre BC, but he has not had enough time
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  Speaker 1: to get a new name registered for the Peter party.
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  Speaker 1: He says he can't get that done because Elections BC
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  Speaker 1: won't approve it until after the Abbotsford Mission by-election September 26. So,
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  Speaker 1: if the BC NDP and Premier David Eby call a
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  Speaker 1: snap election before that, and all rumblings are that's going
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  Speaker 1: to happen. He won't have an approved name for a party.
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  Speaker 1: This type of partnership, in whatever form we're going to
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  Speaker 1: get an official announcement, would solve that and give a
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  Speaker 1: vehicle that exists with a name and a constitution and
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  Speaker 1: various other things, depending on how this goes, for Milibar, Bernier,
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  Speaker 1: the seven MLAs, plus probably the two other independent ex-conservatives
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  Speaker 1: to join and expecting details on that as early as
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  Speaker 1: this morning. Okay, I mean, this is a lot going
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  Speaker 1: on here. We talked about catching election fever. Well, now
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  Speaker 1: we're at that part where the chill goes through you
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  Speaker 1: as we begin to realize the implications of this and
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  Speaker 1: the potential for a snap election. UBCM seized by the issue.
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  Speaker 1: There is also a session today, if you're looking at
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  Speaker 1: planning your day, there is a full agenda at UBCM,
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  Speaker 1: on how modern treaties support the common good, is the
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  Speaker 1: name of that, a topical issue on reconciliation this week,
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  Speaker 1: and the annual banquet reception where everyone will continue to
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  Speaker 1: spread their hot goss all over the place. 99.9% of
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  Speaker 1: it will be completely inaccurate, but sounds great when you
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  Speaker 1: hear it. Let's take a quick break here. When I
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  Speaker 1: come back, I want to play you some of Premier
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  Speaker 1: David Eby's increasing language on an early election so you
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  Speaker 1: can hear it. Straight from the horse's mouth, as it were.
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  Speaker 1: We'll be back after this. Political Capital Daily brought to
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  Speaker 1: you free each and every morning in your pod box.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks to our premier sponsor this season, Airbnb. Here in Victoria,
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  Speaker 1: best local tips. Thanks to Airbnb for its support. Back
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  Speaker 1: to the show. Well, lots occurring yesterday that we should
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  Speaker 1: bring you up to speed on in case you missed it.
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  Speaker 1: A new Angus Reid poll coming out, continuing to fuel
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  Speaker 1: early election speculation. A day after the Ipsos poll came out,
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  Speaker 1: showing a big drop in BC Conservative support, down eight
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  Speaker 1: points to lag 10 points behind the NDP, thanks to
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  Speaker 1: the lack of popularity of BC Conservative leader Carrie Lynn Finlay.
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  Speaker 1: The new Angus Reid poll is about Premier David Eby,
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  Speaker 1: and it shows him up 10 points to 41% since June,
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  Speaker 1: and his approval rating, that is up from what was
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  Speaker 1: his lowest point since becoming Premier in 2022, a 31%
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  Speaker 1: approval rating. So the speculation from Angus Reid in their numbers,
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  Speaker 1: and from the pollster there, that the combination of US
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  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump's trade war and Carrie Lynn Finlay leading
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  Speaker 1: the BC Conservatives, putting wind in the sails of Premier
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  Speaker 1: David Eby, back up 10 points. So you have the
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  Speaker 1: NDP ahead in the Premier's popularity, the popularity and approval
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  Speaker 1: of the leader and of the party as the woes
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  Speaker 1: continue for Kerry Lynn Finlay. There was also a press
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  Speaker 1: conference with Premier David Eby where he was asked repeatedly
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  Speaker 1: about an early election. He has slowly ramped up the
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  Speaker 1: rhetoric as we have covered on this show from just
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  Speaker 1: a few weeks ago saying absolutely not. He's focused on
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  Speaker 1: governing and to not ruling anything out, to even more
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  Speaker 1: language that is deliberately chosen to not just open the
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  Speaker 1: door for an early election, but to basically signal that
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  Speaker 1: it is coming. I want to play you quite a
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  Speaker 1: few of his clips here so you can hear it
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  Speaker 1: from him himself as he keeps tossing the coins that
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  Speaker 1: are adding up to set us on fire. an early
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  Speaker 1: election path.
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  Speaker 2: Here he is. I do recognize that, uh, that it's
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  Speaker 2: important for British Columbians to, uh, to be able to
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  Speaker 2: have a say about the direction of our province, uh,
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  Speaker 2: given the, uh, incredible disruption that Donald Trump has brought
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  Speaker 2: to our economy, uh, and to our politics here in
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  Speaker 2: the province. Um, and, uh, but I'm not making an
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  Speaker 2: announcement to say about election dates. Uh, we have a
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  Speaker 2: one vote majority. Uh, one of our MLAs, uh, Joan
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  Speaker 2: Phillip tragically passed away this summer. And we have two
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  Speaker 2: MLAs with cancer. We have a one vote majority. And
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  Speaker 2: so we're election ready as the NDP. Elections BC should
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  Speaker 2: be election ready. Our focus is on strengthening the province
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  Speaker 2: for our British Columbians. We are election ready as the NDP.
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  Speaker 2: And that's about all I can say about today. Thanks.
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  Speaker 2: just in terms of where the province is now, what
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  Speaker 2: the issues are now, and what they were in the
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  Speaker 2: last election, it's before Trump, there's been a fairly significant
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  Speaker 2: shift in both our politics provincially, especially on the opposition side,
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  Speaker 2: as well as in the priorities of the province. And so,
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  Speaker 2: you know, I just recognize that reality for our province
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  Speaker 2: and the fragility of the current state of affairs for government.
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  Speaker 2: But again, you know, I've Trying to do my best
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  Speaker 2: to support the important work that journalists do. I keep
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  Speaker 2: asking the same question on any announcement about election today.
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  Speaker 2: Today's announcement is about connecting people with family doctors, supporting
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  Speaker 2: them in their health care, and really proud of the
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  Speaker 2: work that's been done here at SFU Medical School. Well,
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  Speaker 2: if there were an election right now, and I think
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  Speaker 2: it would be the question that is front of mind
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  Speaker 2: for so many Canadians, is what is the best direction
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  Speaker 2: for our province, given the incredible upheaval brought about by
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  Speaker 2: the Trump administration? in our economy and in our politics
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  Speaker 2: in British Columbia. But again, I have no announcement to
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  Speaker 2: make about an election today, but I'm sure that's run
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  Speaker 2: of mind for many British Columbians as they consider the
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  Speaker 2: impact on their jobs, on their economic opportunities in the province.
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  Speaker 2: And there are two very different proposals on the table
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  Speaker 2: from the major political parties in the province.
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  Speaker 1: I've been covering politics for a while now. That is
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  Speaker 1: about as close as a premier will get to saying
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  Speaker 1: there is an election coming without actually announcing an election
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  Speaker 1: is coming, even going so far as to find the
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  Speaker 1: ballot box issue there, which is the turmoil in the
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  Speaker 1: world within the conservatives and within U.S. President Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: and the trade war going on. I'll point out here
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  Speaker 1: that there is a one, the premier is correct that
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  Speaker 1: he does have a one-seat majority right now, once they
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  Speaker 1: put someone aside for speaker, but he could have a
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  Speaker 1: two-seat majority. if he called the by-elections, replaced Joan Philip
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  Speaker 1: in Vancouver-Strathcona. He has chosen not to do that for
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  Speaker 1: whatever reason, perhaps so that he can continue to say
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  Speaker 1: he has this slim, fragile majority. He had the same slim,
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  Speaker 1: fragile majority number after 2024 and called it enough to
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  Speaker 1: give him a mandate to govern with a majority situation,
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  Speaker 1: but now apparently not good enough. So that is the
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  Speaker 1: rationale from the premier. He is not scheduled to be
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  Speaker 1: up on Thursday. He is giving a speech to the
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  Speaker 1: Union of BC Municipalities on Friday, and he spoke about
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  Speaker 1: having a caucus meeting with his caucus today, where he's
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  Speaker 1: going to be pitching some type of idea to support
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  Speaker 1: small businesses in the province. We're watching to see if
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  Speaker 1: he comes out of that with an announcement today, and
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  Speaker 1: also what the language is in his Union of BC
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  Speaker 1: Municipalities speech tomorrow. One other item here, a continued woe
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  Speaker 1: For the BC Conservative, Skeena MLA, Claire Ratte, coming out,
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  Speaker 1: not quitting the party, not calling on the leader to resign,
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  Speaker 1: but in an open letter on her substack, basically saying
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  Speaker 1: that the leader is not doing good enough, that Carrie
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  Speaker 1: Lynn Finlay does not attend caucus meetings, or if she does,
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  Speaker 1: she makes a speech and leaves, that she does not
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  Speaker 1: respond to requests from MLAs to talk, that she has
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  Speaker 1: not addressed her mistakes, her staffing issues, given a plan
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  Speaker 1: to the caucus, brought the caucus together in any way,
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  Speaker 1: and she's calling on the leader to do better and
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  Speaker 1: also to come together to give a plan. That certainly
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  Speaker 1: caused a stir because it was not a resignation from caucus,
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  Speaker 1: and the leader did not move immediately to fire Claire Ratte,
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  Speaker 1: and that has led into partly an emergency caucus meeting
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  Speaker 1: on that, serious issues, early speculation, a whole bunch of
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  Speaker 1: pressure rising on Carrie Lynn Finley from all directions, including
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  Speaker 1: Claire Ratte and I'm sure some others in that caucus meeting. Okay, boy,
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  Speaker 1: there is a lot of moving pieces in BC politics,
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  Speaker 1: but that gets you up to speed for this early
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  Speaker 1: Thursday morning. Thank you so much for being here. We've
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  Speaker 1: got another show coming up tomorrow. Holy moly, who knows
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  Speaker 1: what that will bring, but I'll bring it all to
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  Speaker 1: you tomorrow morning. And then Political Capital Prime, break it
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  Speaker 1: all down on Friday as well until then take care