Latest / Financial Survival Network / Economic Woes, Cryptocurrencies, and Global Challenges - Peter Grandich #5983

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Economic Woes, Cryptocurrencies, and Global Challenges - Peter Grandich #5983 · Financial Survival Network

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  No one country benefited more from globalization than Jina, though of course, if
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  that's the case, we're clearly going through a deglobalization phase now in the world,
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  so no country should have to pay more of a price because of that
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  than China. So again, like I said, this year, we'll probably
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  play a crucial role. There is concern now that they are in such a
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  deflationary spiral that they should be cutting rates and other things. You're listening to
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  Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find
• 0:30
  anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network
• 0:36
  now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free
• 0:41
  newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever, And welcome you
• 0:52
  are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie
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  Lutz. Well, it's exactly midway through January of twenty twenty four. We're
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  a touch of base with our old friend Peter Grandich. Bind Tim at Petergranditch
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  dot com. The links in the show notes. If you've got a question,
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  comment on our conversation, or anything else, should be an email at
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  kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. Peter, great to have you back on
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  the show. So you're looking into the future there, and what you're seeing
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  is pretty bleak, isn't it. Well? Yeah, I began the year
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  by stating that we basically now have a true perfect storm of social, political,
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  and economic woes, that it still still can be as far as three
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  to five years away from fully being implemented. But once it is, it's
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  called a rival or surpassed what the Great Depression impact America to And so it's
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  not a bullish stance. I believe philosophy is its preservation of capital, not
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  capital appreciation. That's important now. All right, So you're more concerned about
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  return of investment rather than return on investment, correct? All right? So
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  how do you do that? Like many of you out there are confused,
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  not sure what to do. The market's been good for so long and you
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  think it's just going to keep going, But what if it's not. Well,
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  that's a key point, Kerry. The vast majority of Americans are living
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  in a lifestyle at least one, if not two levels above what they're truly
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  their finances support, and everybody says how they do it. It's simple they
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  borrow, and they also have taken on a lifestyle that almost demands above average
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  returns. And for a lot of years, as you and I spoke,
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  even before we started, the markets managed to do that. Not only has
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  become harder and harder, the people that would aid it no longer have a
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  free reign to do so. And that's the FED. The FED is really
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  not got to be in a position to just pop mo money at free will,
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  as it has in the past, and so I think the first thing
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  one should do is is to look at how they're living and and see if
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  budget wise they can live with less is more. That's been my philosophy for
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  almost twenty years. I could live at a higher lifestyle, I could have
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  a bigger car, I could have a bigger home, and some people might
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  feel that there'd be more joy in that, but it also in this lifestyle
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  that I chosen to live, makes it more at peace, no debt,
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  easy to meet my monthly needs based on what I do. So I think
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  that's the first order. Once that's done, then of course there are places
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  where I don't want to be, and clearly there's no question that even if
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  you want to be in general, equities. The US stock market is so
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  more overvalued than compatible companies outside the US that if you need to want to
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  be in general equals these at least look outside the US. The US market
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  is not only frauthy, it's highly highly valued. Yeah, well, it's
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  been overvalued for a long time. And what did demand say? The market
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  can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Right, yeah, with
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  Kerry, you know. So in twenty twenty one, I made the decision
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  that by the end of the year to be out of general equity's not related
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  to resources, and suggests it to others, including in our planning group here
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  in the US that we deal with US residents the same and people said,
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  oh my god, what would you do? And I said, I would
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  want it rather own gold. And of course gold is always going to be
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  hated by the financial service industry. They treated like kryptonite. And now it
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  has even a new group of haters, the crypto nuts. But the bottom
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  line is in the last two years, even with the rebound that the stock
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  market had last year, gold still outperformed it. But where it really gets
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  interesting, and then you do and I go back a long time. Nine
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  out of our one hundred investment advisors. They'll tell you, oh, stock
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  since the new letting began clearly outperformed gold, when the fact is gold since
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  January first, two thousand has even outperformed the stock market. So I still
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  think there's places, but I'm more focused on preserving one and a half versus
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  trying to dramatically increase it. And one of the places where I believe preservation
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  of capital can be, you know, pretty well counted on it, and
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  that's the gold market right now, right, all right, that's very true
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  what you say. We know, like golden has gone up tenfold basically since
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  two thousand, right, yeah, it's gone up about almost seven hundred percent,
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  while the S and P five the S and P five hundred, any
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  if you reinvested the dividends is less than that. And yet most people would
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  say that the stock market absolutely greatly outperformed gold. Then listen. The interesting
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  about the gold market now always two reasons, one fundamental ones technical. The
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  fundamental is we've never seen such massive physical buy in by the people that have
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  the money, the central banks. And then technically we're approaching levels now where
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  it never really traded before. And therefore, once we get above, and
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  I think the round number is critical here, the twenty one hundred. Once
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  people start to hear a twenty one one hundred and something goal price, it's
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  going to bring in all sorts of momentum and there won't be that resistance of
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  people. Oh, I'm just glad I got back to here. Let me
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  get out. And that's where I really think that we accelerate. And I
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  think we're going to do that in the first quarter of this year. I
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  think we're going to We're going to print and stay above twenty one hundred,
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  and that's really going to accelerate the interest in the goal market. So what
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  about the impact of cryptocurrencies on precious metals. Do you think there's been an
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  impact? Oh, no question about it. And where the impact has been
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  is not so much in the physical market, but the things related to particularly
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  mining shares and particularly the junior resource mark. That market clearly has been impacted
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  in two ways, not only by people buying crypto currencies versus junior resource stocks,
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  but also the way that companies used to be able to market to individual
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  investors has changed dramatically. There's very few financial advisors left in North America that
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  builds book of businesses around junior resource stocks because commissions are next to nothing or
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  nothing. And therefore, when you used to get one financial advisor interested in
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  your company and three or four hundred of their clients came in, now you
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  got to get to those same three hundred and four hundred that they still exist
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  almost on a one to one basis. So part of the junior resource market
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  and mining shares in general has been impacted by crypto, but not so much
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  to physical market. The physical market, particularly outside of the United States,
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  is growing stronger. We're witnessing so much more interest now coming out of Asia.
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  We're also wishing, we thankfully seeing Asia take more control of the goal
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  market and the market. That's why the raids that happened in the paper market
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  steel here are not long lasting like they used to be. Right, And
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  it looks like every time gold now is getting ready to break two thousand,
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  we have some geopolitical incident that takes place. Have you noticed that too,
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  Yeah, but you know, here we are at two thousand and something and
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  for many days now, Harry, And it was a number that seen just
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  six months ago or twelve months ago, elusive that we couldn't even get to
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  that. It's a market that I like to describe. It's the Rodney Danger
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  field of investment. It's no respect and it is before dreading really well.
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  And I think it's only got to accelerate into a much stronger market which is
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  going to seem more widespread participation. So you know, we talk about the
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  Rodney Danger Field of the investment world. You know, you and I dating
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  ourselves a bit. We both remember really well, I actually met him once,
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  and you know, it's it's going to change for sure. But like
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  just the crypto has kind of taken all of Gold's luster and run with it,
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  and you have to wonder, you know, is there something more behind
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  it than just people having an infatuation with cryptos or is there is there something
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  maybe nefarious or I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but you know,
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  as it turns out, us conspiracy theorists have been right way more than we've
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  been wrong here, Peter, No, I agree with that, But you
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  know what's not what's lost in this. I don't want to call it discussion
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  because the crypto people don't want to have a discussion. It's not their way
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  or the highway. But so much money has been lost in crypto when you
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  look outside of just bitcoin and you look at just what happened in the last
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  three years, so much money has been lost there. And also people like
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  to bring up, well, look how much bitcoin is up. It's true,
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  but there weren't a lot of people participating when it was at those low
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  prices. Much of the public came in at these levels we're at now or
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  even higher, and that's just typical of a distribution pattern. And I don't
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  see the embracing you know, carried the first go around in bigcoin a few
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  years ago. It was all pushed about how everybody was going to use it
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  instead of money, and every time somebody made an announcement master car or somebody's
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  going to eat it was that was another bullish reason that never took hold.
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  Now, the technology hasn't changed. It's still in a very hard technology for
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  all the things it's supposed to do. And what's really really interesting is you
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  have a guy like Larry Frank who just a few years ago called it like
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  every name in the book wouldn't touch it with a ten foot poll. The
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  technology has change. Bitcoin now is the same as it was a few years
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  ago, but suddenly he thinks it's the greatest thing since sliced bread white because
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  they want to make money trading it through you know, exchange, trade of
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  funds and so forth and so on. So I just continue to see a
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  lot of hope and conjecture, but I don't see the reality and the usage
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  of it, other than the fact that also in you and I have been
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  around the block this mania that's in it. There's no room for discussion.
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  And when people are that caught up on anything, on any one thing and
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  have no room to hear ad anything other than it can only go up,
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  and it's the best thing in the world. You have to avoid or actually
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  sell those type of things, no matter what they were. If they were
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  saying the same things about gold now that they say about bitcoin, I would
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  get out of gold. It's so true. It reminds you of the political
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  discussion or lack thereof, that's taking place in the country and the world right
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  now. There's no room for discussion about anything anymore, is there. I
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  think that's part of the crisis that's coming. I want to switch gears a
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  little bit talk about China. Initially it looked like China was going to run
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  the world but now China's economy is collapsing so fast. They're built and road
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  initiative, which many have called the bribe and rape initiative, is falling flat
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  on its face. And their infrastructure that they we're so proud of spent trillions
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  of dollars over the past thirty forty years seems to be collapsing faster than their
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  stock markets. Is there a way back for China? Is this just disinformation
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  being thrown out there by the West, or is there some truth to it?
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  Well, we're old enough to remember that a lot of the descriptions of
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  China in recent years, whether the description is given to Japan in the seventies
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  and eighties, they were going to be to take it over the world.
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  They were going to become the economic powerhouse and all. And of course nothing
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  is further from the truth. Now for them, I think we're still a
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  state. The verdict is still out on China. I do think you bring
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  up an important part that China is not the slam dunk nor and this is
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  very important if we believe on this coming financial crisis. Let's not forget that
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  back in two thousand and eight, they were one of the reasons the whole
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  world didn't collapse because they were strong enough economically to prevent and help support the
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  stabilization, if that's what you want to call it. That time. We
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  never rided ourselves of the financial problems at that point in time. But they're
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  not in that same position to do that now. Although the flummation of the
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  bricks at all, of that is going to be something again that's going to
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  be negative for the US and negative for the dollar at all. But I
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  think the jury is still out. I do think the interesting thing that's happening
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  there is there is a switch to consume the driven economy versus an exporting economy.
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  And the more that they do that, the more the people there want
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  more of twenty first century lifestyle. They don't want to live under communist rules.
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  So we may be shocked to surprise that China as we know it will
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  still exist, but the ion fist that runs it may not be able to
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  keep running it in the way they did. But I still think the jury's
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  out. Carry But you're right, this should be far more concerned about China
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  now than we just had a few years ago. Yeah, I just find
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  it interesting, you know, they seem to be in a protracted, multifascined
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  collapse, much like the West, but it looks like it's unfolding faster.
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  And in two thousand and eight, yeah, they jumped in and they printed
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  money and you know, use their dollar reserves to help bolster their domestic demand,
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  which maybe did mitigate the collapse a bit, but perhaps they were just
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  putting off the inevitable. But this multifaceted moral, ethical, infrastructure, economic,
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  stock market. You know, we could argue all day about the origins
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  of a certain pandemic, but it becomes more and more obvious by the day.
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  It originated there with the help of certain individuals in our own power structure.
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  But it looks like they're getting their come up ins here in terms of
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  just this collapse. I mean, you look at these to food drag construction
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  projects. They have their high speed rail, and it just seems like they
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  cut a lot of corners to get where they are today, and maybe they
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  cut too many. Well, it's very odd to look anywhere around the world
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  and see strength economic or what have you. Whether you look in Europe,
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  good pots of ases there are. You know, obviously indiers coming a much
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  lower base, so it can look like it's growing but one of the things
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  that again has crippled in a sense a good part of the world is the
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  amount of debt that the world has taken on. And nowhere is that more
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  important now in the US with thirty four trillion in debt going to fifty trillion,
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  hay in our interests expence is going to become a major concern over the
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  next couple of years. So again, you brought up one of many,
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  many reasons not to be very enthusiastics about general equity markets, China being one
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  of them. Yeah, yeah, soon, and that demand that they're trying
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  to facilitate through domestic shifted from international. You see hundreds of Western companies and
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  Japan Korean companies for that matter. Asian companies are abandoning China are decoupling.
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  And I don't know if it has to do with the global health issue that
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  they unleashed on the planet or whether there is just natural cyclical happenings there,
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  but I do find it kind of interesting. It reminds me of the tale
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  of Japan thirty years ago. They were going to take over the world.
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  Then you know they've had the lost couple of decades here, Peter, Yeah,
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  I spoke about that before, and no one country benefited more from globalization
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  than China. So of course, if that's the case, we're clearly going
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  through a deglobalization phase now in the world, so no country should have to
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  pay more of a price because of that than China. So again, like
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  I said, this year will probably play a crucial role. There is concern
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  now that they are in such a deflationary spiral that they should be cutting rates
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  and other things. Last night they didn't do it in one of their bank
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  rates, which gaves some people more concern, and the were even weaker.
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  So it is something, as you noted, very worth watching in the coming
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  weeks and months. It could very well just wind up adding a fuel to
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  the fire, right absolutely all right, Peter, We still find you at
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  Peter Grandage dot com. Go sign up there for Peter's blog. If you
• 18:07
  got any questions or comments, kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. You'll find
• 18:10
  a link to Peter's site in the show notes to this interview on Financial Survival
• 18:17
  Network dot com. Make sure you sign up for your free newsletter. Peter.
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  Great getting in touch with you again, talking to you, and we'll
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  definitely be talking to you soon again. Thank you Gary much carry thanks for
• 18:26
  listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.
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  For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
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  more than ever,