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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with David Shapiro and Viv Govender · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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BJC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.
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And as it's a Thursday, I'm speaking to Viv Govender from the award-winning
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Ransuisse and David Shapiro,
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the award-winning portfolio manager from Sassfin Securities.
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You are.
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I looked it up the other day, actually, David, how many awards you'd won.
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You get lots of them.
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Various names, various things over the years.
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But anyway, never mind that.
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It's the five o'clock shadow.
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And I want to talk about a couple of things.
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And I'll start with you, David, because you were absent last week.
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Let's start with jobs or as Mr.
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Trump would say, jabs.
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A tremendous amount of jabs apparently were created in the first month of this
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year in the United States.
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Data, late data came out yesterday to show that non-farm payrolls increased by
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130,000 for the month versus the
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expectation of 60,000.
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Headlines were blowout jobs numbers and the Fed is going to hold rates and
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everything.
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What's a blowout job number?
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130,000 for a population of 300 million.
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And just before you comment, I know you're champing at the bit there,
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181,000 in 2025 was the revised number.
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Not a month, but over the whole year.
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181,000.
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It's pathetic, David.
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So blowout number, please do me a favour.
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No, I think it was just simply that.
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It was better than expected.
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It's not a blowout number.
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You know, we're still getting used to the adjustments that came from the government
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shutdown.
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So certain jobs that weren't there are coming back.
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I think it just gave the market a little bit of comfort.
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And I think the Fed will look at these numbers.
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And I think it's just reinforcing a view that there are only going to be maybe two
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cuts
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in interest rates this year, if any.
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So I think...
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Lindsay, the way I read it, I don't think the story is having any kind of impact on
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the market.
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I think if it was a really poor number, yes, it would have led to an earlier rate
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cut.
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But I don't think the numbers that we're getting out now are swaying the market
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either way.
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We just I know we're getting the inflation number out tomorrow once more.
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I don't think one can read that there's not going to be inflation pushing up high.
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and nor do they expect it to come down.
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So I think we're just going through the motions at the moment of analysing data.
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But I've got no, I don't think there are any strong feelings.
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We'll talk later, you know, which I spoke to you on Monday about,
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where I think jobs will start coming down the line with the amount of spending
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that's taking place.
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But it's not there yet.
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Yeah, Viv, on Monday, David was talking about giant data centres being built, the
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construction doing well, and plumbers,
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and all that sort of thing.
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And I made the point that...
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It doesn't take that long to build a data center.
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And then the jobs have gone because the things that are in the data center don't
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need to use bathrooms.
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So there's not a bathroom on every floor, et cetera.
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So we had a good to and fro with that.
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Viv, the other thing I wanted to talk about, let's talk about the economy before
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we drop the subject, Viv.
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Because it isn't doing too badly, is it?
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I mean, I saw Pam Bondi yesterday talking about when she was supposed to be talking
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about Epstein and Minnesota.
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She got sidetracked.
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when she was cornered and started talking about the economy and the Dow Jones and
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got it all completely wrong.
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But and said Donald Trump, in fact, was the greatest president in the history of
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the United States.
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But Viv, it is doing quite well.
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I suppose that helps every sector, doesn't it?
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AI included.
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Look, I mean, a couple of things.
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Firstly, the jobs number is worse than you think, because if you take out health care
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jobs, it had negative job growth last year.
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So.
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Healthcare jobs, it was just over 100% of all the jobs that were created last year
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were healthcare, meaning that without healthcare, you had negative job growth,
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right?
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And obviously, healthcare is not exactly the sector you want to be growing with
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really fast, because, you know, it really doesn't add to the long-term productivity.
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I mean, if you have somebody that breaks a leg and they go to the doctor, that's
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effectively GDP.
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But the world isn't better because somebody broke their leg, you know what I
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mean?
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So that is one way to look at it.
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The other thing is that it's the numbers of the AI sector, right?
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I mean, the numbers are just insane.
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I mean, if you're talking about two-thirds of a trillion dollars are going to be
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spent on
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AI in the next year just by what's being announced by the big companies, two-thirds
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of a trillion dollars, that's like 2% of US GDP,
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right, on AI in the next year.
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So if you think about it from that point of view, if you're going to be adding this
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2% of GDP growth because of the data centers, you know,
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you take that out and like, what does the actual GDP number look like?
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But even that being said, I do think it's kind of strange at the moment that we are
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seeing GDP growth numbers coming through, like you said.
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without accompanying job numbers.
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And like I said, it's actually negative job numbers outside the healthcare sector.
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This is a very...
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weird looking economy at the moment in the US.
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Here comes David now with his theory.
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Two thirds of a trillion is the number that Viv's thrown around, David.
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Just a little bit more glamorous than the number you talked about on Monday, but not
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that much more glamorous, but it's encouraging for you.
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So you go on now with your jobs theory, please, and economy theory.
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It's exactly that.
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The numbers that are coming up are something like almost the total will be
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about two trillion, not only on data centers.
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So somewhere down the line, this has to...
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And this is a year.
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Hey, whoa, whoa, this is just one year.
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This is not over four or five years.
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This is just one year.
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And that means that there's a lot of multiplier effect from that number.
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You know, when you spend one dollar, that goes through the economy a few times
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before it frizzles out.
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And it creates jobs.
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That's why each data center, and I'm going to repeat it because Viv's going to back
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me up.
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These are sophisticated.
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These are very sophisticated.
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They're not a cart.
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Sorry, they're not one of those containers that fell off the back of a truck or
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something.
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These are massive businesses and incredibly sophisticated.
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If you look, I think Vertiv came out with their results,
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which provide the cooling systems for the data centers.
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Highly sophisticated technology.
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So somewhere along the line, you're going to be training.
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It's not only building, putting bricks down.
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bricks and mortar, but it's also all the equipment that goes in there,
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plus the technicians that have to run it and are being trained ahead of every other
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economy.
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So it's only China and America that are doing this in any big way.
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And my view is, hold on, this is going to just push them ahead of other economies.
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You know, Europe is still deciding, you know, they still say it's got to go
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through this layer and that layer of...
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of regulation and finally this one and so on.
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You really hate Europe, don't you?
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Every chance you get, you have a go at Europe.
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No, I just don't like the way that they...
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Look at the Eurodollar.
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But anyway, sorry, I interrupted you because I'm sitting in Europe.
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No, no, you're right.
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Why?
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Because you remember when they formed the EU,
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this was going to challenge America as an economic area.
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We're going to put all our resources together.
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Well, yeah, you're making some good...
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handbags.
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Ernie's results were out today.
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They were great.
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That's a terrible thing to say.
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Wonderful motor cars.
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Wonderful motor cars, Ferrari.
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A great company, I must say, ASML.
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It's probably the one tech area that does exist exactly where you live.
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But otherwise, they're behind.
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So I'm saying, come on, man.
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Do something.
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Viv, you've got to come in here and help me.
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These sophisticated cooling systems are being built.
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Yes, they will boost AI, and AI will hopefully, with all that extraordinary
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spend, boost GDP.
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Does it boost jobs?
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I don't think so.
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Maybe temporarily.
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I'm not sure.
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Aviv, can you come in on this one before we go to other matters, please?
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One thing I can say, they can't do this next year.
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Do you know why?
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There's no power in the U.S.
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to power the study centers after this kind of build-out.
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They will run out of power in the next couple of years if they continue at this
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rate.
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Because one of the data centers is roughly the size of a mid-sized city in terms of
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the amount of power it takes on.
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That's why it requires the sophisticated handling.
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Because imagine powering a mid-sized city.
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But a computer that takes the power of a mid-sized city, it's incredible.
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A computer obviously has tiny, tiny voltage, like torrents.
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And you're powering this amount of power through it.
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It makes a huge difference.
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So, yes, that is very sophisticated.
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But you build it for another year or two.
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Where do you get the power to do that?
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kind of power these things up.
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That's why Elon Musk is talking about putting stuff into space, which sounds
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ridiculous until you look at the maths behind it.
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If they're going to continue to do this kind of build-out, say, until 2030,
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they literally have to build it in space because they can't get the power on Earth,
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which is an insane idea at the moment.
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But the other thing is that we talk about the economy.
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This is more than the economy.
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I mean, understand that the people that win AI are not winning like an economic
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race.
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They're not going to have like a little kind of jump up in GDP or whatever.
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They are literally going to win the future.
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If AI is real, and it does seem to be real, you are talking about the people
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that win it are going to be the people whose
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grandchildren own planets.
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And the people that don't win it are going to be the people that are going to be
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effectively in the government dole for eternity.
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You know what I mean?
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That is the differential you're talking about here.
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That is why they are willing to spend this kind of money.
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That is why, insanely now, Google, with all its massive cash flow, is borrowing
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money to invest in AI.
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You know what I mean?
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The Google search bar is literally the most cash-generative thing ever invented
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in human history.
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And of course, okay, they are doing some treasury stuff.
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They do have like tens of billions in whatever.
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But still the idea that Google is borrowing money to invest in AI, right, is
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an insane kind of situation.
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These guys are going, you know, gangbusters on AI because they think that
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they are really close.
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And by really close, I don't mean they think it's going to happen in the next 10
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years.
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They are thinking it's going to happen by 2030.
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You know what I mean?
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That's around the corner.
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That's four years away.
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Four years away.
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And another thing I want to point out is that, and this is a bit of a pet peeve,
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which I'm trying to argue to people.
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You know what the most innovative thing in AI has been in the last year or so?
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Go on.
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It's Claudebot.
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Claudebot, now changed to Maltbot, now changed to openClaude.
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It's a funny story, if you ever want to get into it, about how this thing
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happened.
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But anyway, invented by one man.
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who basically wasn't even trying to do something he was basically a guy he's the
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guy that made i don't know if you have you guys have iphones uh yes
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i do it's called ps pdf kit it's how you what are you pdfs on iphones you know the
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app
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yeah yeah he invented that app basically sold it retired so ai was playing around
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with
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it just for the fun of it okay and created a whole new segment of the marketplace
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that's now taking everything by storm
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Why couldn't it happen in South Africa?
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Why couldn't there be a smart kid in South Africa that did that kind of thing?
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It's because we just don't have the vision of that, I think.
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Why can't it happen in Europe?
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You don't need a data center.
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This wasn't a man with a data center.
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It wasn't a man even on a mission to try and invent something.
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No team, single person playing around invents the next stage of AI.
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Okay?
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And the thing is, Viv, before you go on, because
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I know you are so passionate about and knowledgeable about this subject.
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but The fact that he was just playing around means that there may be somebody
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else playing around, maybe not with his background, his PDF background,
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but somebody who's clever and somebody who's obsessed with AI and just doing
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something in his homemade science lab,
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whatever it is, a mini data center that David loves so much.
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And he comes up with something and that can just happen.
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And it's not like you invent, you suddenly discover oil and all the infrastructure.
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palaver around getting oil out the ground and refining it, etc.
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It can almost be implemented immediately, Viv.
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Look, this guy did it at the end of last year.
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It's literally four or five months old.
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Is this Amodea?
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Why do you call him Amodea?
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Or the two of them?
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Or is that anthropic?
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Who was the...
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No, no, no, Amodea.
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Amodea.
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That's why they had to change the name because this guy literally used a name
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called Claude Bott because he was just a game.
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He wasn't even trying to do anything complicated.
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He was just playing a little kind of...
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no cell phone project it called it like playing a computer game factorium he's
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made his money he's retired and he's just basically playing
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a game and he named it claude but as a joke but when it became real he had to
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change the name to malt bot then to open claw
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because basically uh claude's email saying sorry this is too close to our name you
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know what i mean
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it's it's literally a man who basically obviously skilled because he has a an app
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that is in a a billion devices,
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literally a billion devices.
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But he was playing around.
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He's European, by the way.
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I think he's German or something.
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Ah, okay.
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Yeah.
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So the brains are there.
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But the problem is that all the stuff that's going to happen out of this is not
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going to happen in Europe.
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It's going to happen in the US.
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Yes, because they've got the money, yeah.
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They've got the money, but they don't have the money.
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Like you said, this shows you don't need the money.
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They have something different.
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They have the regulatory environment.
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They have the entrepreneurial spirit.
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But this man, I mean, went through this whole thing.
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Somebody said monetize, he's not even thinking of monetizing it.
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He says, I have enough money, you know, I'm financially secure.
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That is the difference.
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I mean, the brains of Europe are there, but somehow that drive, that connection to
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the, you know, the engine,
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the gear to the wheels, you know what I mean, that connection is broken somehow.
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So it's kind of weird as to why Europe is falling behind, because they do all the
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stuff.
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They invented AI with DeepMind.
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Geoffrey Hinton is British.
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This guy here is, I think he's European, I think he's German, but it's all going to
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happen in America.
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Yeah, well, you see this chap at this very moment, David, is driving around in his
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Ferrari with his
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Louis Vuitton handbag over his shoulder and going home for a delicious glass of
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wine, but nothing else because
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America gives the money for the development of his idea.
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That's the problem.
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You can get it in America.
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You can't get it in Europe.
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They haven't got the mentality, certainly in South Africa.
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There are no companies here that will lend you that kind of money to develop it.
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We talk about it and we talk.
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There isn't.
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You know, you go to any one of our major banks with an idea like that.
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You've got no chance.
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In America, the amount of money that is prepared to back you in big way and they,
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you know,
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and they wait.
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You don't have to give them, first of all, you don't have to put your auntie and your
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uncle and your, you know,
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your children up as collateral.
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There are the VC funds,
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and that's been the massive success around the U.S.
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technology drive.
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They've got the money and they're prepared to take it.
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And that's why I just think that America just keeps driving ahead using this
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technology.
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And listen, it's also the claim, it's also the reason that there's so much opposition
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to Trump and his visas, you know,
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or stopping visas, stopping people from coming through.
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I worry about the World Cup, David.
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We've got to cut this one short, but I worry about the World Cup.
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But you're absolutely right.
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America is very open and open for business,
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whereas you quite rightly say the regulation in Europe really is quite
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something.
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But things do work on this continent, I must say, particularly in the country I
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live in.
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Okay, I want to ask you, David, stay with you on this one, because while people like
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yourself and Viv have...
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been early on the AI surge, stock surge that is.
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People are now saying, okay, well, I missed out on this particular stock, so
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I've got to look for other stocks.
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I've got to be clever here.
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I've got to think laterally.
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And so they're thinking about companies that are hit by AI.
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And we know that software has been to the fore in this regard.
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But there's also others.
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UBS created a list of of European stocks that have been knocked by
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AI investor short sellers.
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And it's software, real estate, for some reason,
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insurance and financial services are the top four sectors.
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Tell me which one of those.
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I mean, obviously, financial services rings a bell with you.
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But why is AI hitting financial services, do you think?
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Are you talking to Viv?
16:42
No, I'm talking to you.
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Now it's your turn.
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And then Viv will come in.
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You first, David.
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Okay, no, there's this view that...
16:52
The impact on software, sorry,
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it's really going to disrupt their models, you know, their traditional models.
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They can automate tasks and reshape kind of workflows that
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are in those models that you're talking about.
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So you're going to, you don't need them.
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You can actually find a lot of that information yourself.
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Let's say you're looking for a home or something like this and you would go to...
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realestate.com, you know, you can do it yourself.
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Now, you don't have to go through that.
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So a lot of businesses that were offering these services, I think, are under
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pressure.
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The belief that you won't go to them, you know how many companies there are, you
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want to look for, it's almost like going to Amazon and that.
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I don't know exactly, but my own view is that these businesses will embrace these
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if they're clever
17:48
within their models.
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Yes.
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I don't think they're going to be completely sidestep.
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Why it's going to affect financial services, I'm not sure.
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Research, maybe.
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Research, maybe.
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But if you're an amateur, but I'm a little worried that this has been overdone.
18:07
Okay.
18:09
Sorry, I know I'm not articulating it.
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properly but you're making good points especially on the software side i think in
18:18
fact they will probably embrace ai and
18:20
this is a bit of a knee-jerk reaction but viv you wanted to uh to talk about this as
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well what about uh
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companies that have been or might be disrupted by ai what do you think yeah
18:31
look i mean the thing is that i think honestly i think david is correct right
18:38
right now it's not not there right now but i mean i just go back
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there's a famous will smith eating spaghetti video from about two years ago
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watch that video and watch what ai video looks like by today
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then compete then imagine that if today's you know financial software that ai
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software is like that will smith video from two years from in the past
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in two years time it'll be better than warren buffer talking to you honestly
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right and and and the majority of people out there don't do um you know their own
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financial planning don't do their own financial
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services not because they are not smart enough to do it because a lot of stuff is
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is quite simple.
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It's because they don't understand the processes, the rules, the different
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nuances and so on.
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You combine a cloud, but an open cloud rather, the thing that's available right
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now, this agent thing.
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If it was secure, it could easily handle opening a tax-free savings account for
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you,
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giving you a basic portfolio that's not going to be basically shooting lights out,
19:30
but will probably perform as well as the majority of funds out there.
19:35
It could easily...
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handle things like, for instance, starting up insurance, shopping around different
19:43
insurance companies.
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Basically, you could ask it questions about, can I claim for this insurance, and
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could you put the claim through for me?
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You know what I mean?
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Those are the kind of things.
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How much of the special services industry is that?
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It's a lot.
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And I think that is what's going to be there.
19:59
It's interesting, because I did exactly that today.
20:01
I'm talking to Viv.
20:03
You know what I'm saying?
20:05
I did...
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Exactly.
20:06
I said, hold on a sec.
20:10
This software area has been hurt badly.
20:12
This is ridiculous.
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And I said, I want to find an ETF,
20:19
a product where it embodies all of these companies, ServiceNow, Salesforce, the
20:26
ones that you're talking about.
20:28
And sure enough, within a few minutes, not even a few minutes as I hit it, and I'm
20:33
only using coworker.
20:35
I haven't gone down to anything sophisticated.
20:35
This is like the basic level.
20:37
I certainly got four or five different ideas.
20:41
They didn't exactly fit out for me because it had more top-end
20:47
stocks rather than the ones that I was looking that had been hit.
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But I get exactly what Viv is saying.
20:54
I didn't have to go phone up someone at an institution or anybody there and say,
21:00
please look for me, put product together.
21:02
It was done.
21:04
It gave me an idea.
21:06
It gave me somewhere to start looking as well.
21:08
So, yeah, I can understand that.
21:10
I can identify with that, sure.
21:12
Okay.
21:12
Okay.
21:13
Very good.
21:14
Let's have a look at other things now because it is the 5 o'clock shutter, so we
21:19
have to look at the close of the JSC.
21:21
And, David, just to stay with you quickly because
21:24
AB InBev came out with numbers and they were pretty well received by the market
21:29
because they're around about 4%
21:31
gain in round terms on the JSC today.
21:33
On the other hand, we had...
21:34
What do we have on the downside?
21:37
South 32 came down.
21:38
They are down about 3%. And the one that we'll talk about later on is Aspen.
21:42
So all those people that have got it in your crystal challenge are really, really
21:48
loving it today.
21:50
So you mentioned that last week.
21:51
But AB InBev, you were talking about people not drinking anymore, not going out
21:55
anymore, not mating anymore.
21:57
So what's happening with AB InBev?
21:58
Why have they done well?
22:00
I think just a slightly better...
22:03
In fact, I didn't go through the results, so you've got me there.
22:05
I was hoping Viv would be the drinker that would come in and help me there.
22:10
I just didn't listen to our analyst report this morning.
22:15
No, in that case, it doesn't matter.
22:16
I could see it was, you know, revenue was up, I believe, and volumes are slightly
22:22
vermer.
22:24
But nothing, in fact, volumes are down.
22:25
I'm just looking now, volumes down and that.
22:27
But I think it's from an efficiency point of view, they're improving there.
22:32
but I don't know.
22:33
I'm still a bit nervous about the trend.
22:36
But before I make a dig a deeper hole for myself, I'm not going to say anything more
22:40
about it.
22:41
Okay, David is not going to say anything about local stocks.
22:43
He's too immersed in artificial intelligence programs.
22:48
I saw AEL, Eltron and other stocks came out today.
22:51
Aspen, I couldn't understand.
22:52
There's so much noise there.
22:54
It is a very, very noisy result.
22:56
You know what I mean?
22:57
That you have to spend a lot of time and also you have to know the business.
23:01
to be able to interpret what they say and uh you know from my point of view i i just
23:07
didn't have the
23:09
um you know i just didn't have the understanding but i did choose it in the
23:14
crystal challenge and i'm up eight percent today congratulations
23:16
i on the other hand on the other hand i must tell you i chose pick and pay for my
23:23
wife and that went the other way and that
23:25
but i haven't told her that i've got pick and pay you can tell her when you get back
23:30
from your two weeks away with your ex-girlfriend like Bill
23:32
Gates.
23:34
OK, Viv, we've got the State of the Nation address coming up.
23:35
We've got the mining in Darbar, South Africa booming, apparently because of,
23:42
what is it,
23:44
Wulinglela Phase 2, which is being initiated now.
23:46
I did a good podcast with a very earnest young woman this morning about that.
23:50
So that got me all optimistic.
23:52
But then I look at South Africa's, Viv, December manufacturing output.
23:56
It fell by 1.4%.
23:58
I did another podcast a couple of days ago with, again, a woman, and she ranted at
24:05
people that want to bring their dollars back because the
24:07
RAND's going to 12, 12.50, what they've been told.
24:08
And she said, no, just wait a second.
24:10
It's all commodities.
24:10
We don't make anything in South Africa.
24:13
She was actually rather anti-Viv, the South Africa story.
24:17
But it's nice and stable, isn't it?
24:19
Look at that 10-year bond rate at 7.95%.
24:23
Yeah, look, I mean, I do think that, yeah, there is a...
24:26
We are totally dependent.
24:28
Part of it is what we did.
24:28
I mean, we ended load shedding.
24:30
People forget how devastating that was to the economy.
24:34
I think there's areas that are still having issues, but it's like nowhere near
24:38
what it was two years ago.
24:40
We've had a big turnaround since I think the GNU we formed was a bit of a vibe
24:44
shift.
24:45
And then as it was kind of pitchering out, we got the boost off of the commodity
24:51
sector with gold prices going as crazy as they have been.
24:53
But I do think that this is quite vulnerable.
24:55
We're going to have a municipal election this year, and obviously in the upcoming
25:01
years we're going to have the next national election.
25:03
I don't think the GNU survives to that.
25:05
We've already seen a shift in power at the DA.
25:07
So I think it's going to be a bit of a hectic thing.
25:08
Honestly, getting back to my point about the AI, which I'm sorry to harp on, these
25:15
guys I'm talking about, like, you know, oh, 2040,
25:17
2030 is just around the corner.
25:19
And if you are investing in South Africa, unfortunately, there's very little in
25:24
South Africa that touches that besides maybe NASPERS, you know what I mean, which
25:26
is a Chinese company.
25:28
So I'm a bit nervous about, you know, just what's been happening around that.
25:30
Regarding the...
25:31
Sorry, I didn't say the rest of it.
25:32
Maybe in there.
25:33
I'm actually not a drinker myself.
25:34
I haven't had a drop to drink, I think, 25 years.
25:38
Gosh.
25:39
So, yeah.
25:40
But I think they were talking about the fact that apparently they're going to
25:47
benefit from the World Cup and
25:49
the Olympics and that kind of stuff.
25:49
And they're really amping up their spending for marketing to try and gain
25:55
market share, even though they are a dominant player in the market anyway.
25:57
But if you look at their profit forecast, it's actually significantly higher than,
26:00
for instance, some of their rivals.
26:02
And maybe that's why people are shifting towards them.
26:04
in the drinking space.
26:06
And don't forget the non-alcoholic beverage sector.
26:08
Okay, it's small compared to the traditional sector, but it is doing well.
26:11
I mean, I sit down at home.
26:12
I'm going to be watching Arsenal against Brentford tonight at nine o'clock,
26:15
and I'll have in front of me a Warsteiner zero-alcohol beer.
26:20
And it pains me to say that, but that has been my life for the last year.
26:24
And although it's good for my health, it's just not the same.
26:26
David?
26:27
You know what happens?
26:29
You know, the power of the mind.
26:31
If I have a non-alcoholic beer, I feel drunk.
26:33
You think you're drunk.
26:34
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
26:37
But after three, my body says, wait a second, there's something going on here.
26:41
You're trying to fool me.
26:42
I'm sure you're having a laugh, aren't you?
26:43
That's what it says to me.
26:45
I had exactly the same experience when I first started doing it.
26:49
Let's have a look.
26:49
Lindsay, just on the subject of the economy,
26:54
there was a rather distressing report that came out of the IMF about South African
26:59
growth.
26:59
And I think...
27:00
They identified the issues around South Africa,
27:03
a lot of risks that we have to face, which is more global, you know,
27:10
globally, global politics, geopolitics.
27:14
And if you look at their forecast, that's what worries me.
27:18
I don't know if they're always correct, but for the next few years, we're still
27:24
under 2, nowhere near 2%.
27:26
And we can't grow, we can't thrive.
27:29
You know, with growth around those levels, without the kind of investment that you're
27:36
seeing from data centers and so on, you know,
27:38
maybe not data centers here, but without that kind of commitment and that,
27:43
we're just going to bumble along.
27:44
I saw your article,
27:50
it was on LinkedIn and it was to do with,
27:54
it was marking the 36th anniversary to the day of.
27:57
Nelson Mandela being released from incarceration.
28:01
And David, you go on from there.
28:02
You say, yes, South Africa's done well, but then you compared it to China, United
28:07
States, maybe even Europe.
28:09
Anyway, go on.
28:11
That's exactly what I did.
28:13
I did this because, you know, for my wife, it was a very important day.
28:15
Her parents had been elected in, I mean, sorry,
28:19
they had been arrested in 1964.
28:23
And on that day, well, just a week before that.
28:26
My mother-in-law was finally freed.
28:29
My father-in-law had died before in 1987, but she was freed.
28:33
You know, she was unbanned and was allowed to travel, get a passport and so on.
28:38
So I cynically said, you know, while she was going on about these dates,
28:42
I was trying to look at the S&P and see whether it was at an all-time high.
28:47
But anyway, I did go back and look at some numbers.
28:51
And, you know, so...
28:55
Although the GDP has grown four times in that period,
29:00
China is up 50 times and
29:02
Eastern Europe much stronger than us and many other countries, Singapore, South
29:09
Korea and so on.
29:11
And when we look at our GDP per capita, it's around about $6,000.
29:14
I'm not going into fancy economics and saying let's do it on a purchasing parity
29:21
kind of basis and that.
29:23
I'm just taking numbers.
29:25
you know, for comparative purposes.
29:25
So our GDP per capita is around 6,300.
29:29
America, 83,000.
29:31
China, 12,000.
29:33
You know, even Brazil, nine.
29:34
So we've fallen behind the rest of the world.
29:37
Something, those that are making hubs, and I specifically looked at those companies,
29:43
Israel, about 40,000,
29:45
which is a hub.
29:47
It's a tech hub.
29:49
Singapore is now a financial center, 24,000 per person, and so on.
29:53
No, sorry, it's 86,000.
29:54
My apologies.
29:56
South Korea is also now 34,000.
30:00
So we're way behind the rest of the world and haven't grown anywhere near the
30:07
potential that we
30:09
should have grown.
30:11
That's the point.
30:13
And nor are we heading that way either.
30:15
Okay.
30:17
Well, at least we stabilized last year and hopefully this year as well, because all
30:19
my stocks are
30:21
SA-centric in my crystal challenge.
30:24
Well, they had to be.
30:25
We wouldn't let you go in otherwise.
30:26
Yeah, but I could have got Anglo Gold because it's… Oh, yeah, you could have
30:33
done that.
30:33
No, but these are ones that do their business within the borders of the
30:38
Republic of South Africa, sell clothes and things.
30:40
I see a couple of retailers do well today.
30:42
So I should have got a little bit of a boost.
30:44
Sorry, Viv.
30:44
Dollar Rand is 1585.
30:46
That's pretty good.
30:47
That's a multi-year high, I think it is.
30:48
The British pound against the Rand, 2164.
30:51
Euro Rand, 1883.
30:53
The gold price is 5071, down $7 an ounce on its lows of the day, actually.
30:59
Finished yesterday at midnight.
31:01
It was around about 5100.
31:03
It's the reason I was up at midnight, David, because I was watching Man City
31:07
versus Fulham.
31:09
the Platinum price is $21.33, down $13 an ounce.
31:14
Palladium going in the opposite direction, up $38 to $17.43.
31:19
Let me give you another couple of commodities from my CRB Commodity Index
31:25
page.
31:27
There it goes.
31:29
Crude oil down 1.4%.
31:31
That's West Texas, $63.72.
31:33
But Brent crude oil, $68.45, down 1.4%.
31:34
The all-important copper price for South Africa now, and for my copper 360
31:39
investment.
31:41
5.94 for that, and that's down half a percent.
31:44
U.S.
31:45
10-year bond yield.
31:46
Yeah, the bond market liked those numbers yesterday, so it's just below 4.14%.
31:53
It has recently been 4.30%.
31:57
I still don't back it, though.
31:59
The South African is great, 7.96% for the South African 10-year.
32:03
Barely changed on the day.
32:04
Bitcoin.
32:06
Yeah, the dead cat bounce I spoke to you about on Monday, David,
32:09
has played out very nicely because it's back at just over 67,000.
32:14
And what else have we got?
32:15
The S&P that you were looking at when your wife was trying to be political,
32:18
6,967 for the March futures,
32:24
which has really changed on the day.
32:27
So that's that.
32:28
Let's have a look at some of the movers on the JSC today, if I can find it.
32:32
Where's that gone?
32:34
South Africa.
32:35
I haven't got it.
32:36
Oh, gosh.
32:37
You two talk amongst yourselves.
32:39
Viv, next week, I want to talk about China from an AI perspective,
32:43
because I've got an interview tomorrow morning with a woman in China who's just
32:50
an equity
32:52
investor in China stocks.
32:52
So I want you to come up with the idea, and you can tease us now if you like,
32:57
of any stocks that you think are undervalued compared to their American
33:02
peers.
33:04
in China, and do you like them?
33:05
Can you give us a bit of a taster now, Viv?
33:08
Look, I like Huawei, but I think you can get into that.
33:10
But I think if you can get into China right now, I think the energy advantage
33:16
they have, especially this company called CATL,
33:18
it does batteries.
33:20
I think that is one way you can convert solar into power you can use for data
33:23
centres, et cetera.
33:25
As well as, I mean, if you have batteries, this is one of the big producers of EV
33:28
batteries.
33:29
It's going to be for robots.
33:31
for self-driving vehicles, because self-driving vehicles have to be electric.
33:34
They can't be petrol-driven because it's easier to operate an electric vehicle.
33:38
I think the battery sector in China, I think, is something that they're going to
33:44
have an advantage with that's going to be very difficult for anyone else in the
33:46
world to compete in.
33:48
It's both high technology, it's technique, but it's also something in which you have
33:52
to actually be able to manufacture at that scale.
33:54
And I don't think many people can beat that.
33:55
But one funny thing I heard about, and I don't know if we should ask about it,
33:59
But some chip analyst was saying that in China they're so like
34:06
you're obsessed with this whole AI thing that some of the dramas, the Chinese love
34:13
dramas take place in
34:15
AI chip fabricating labs.
34:17
So it's like you're not a doctor but a chip scientist or you know that kind of
34:22
stuff.
34:26
But there's one more thing I want to point out, right?
34:28
The Chinese have been operating a different kind of system since like the
34:33
1980s, where they kind of go out and they take about the 100,000 smartest kids in
34:37
the country.
34:38
This is out of about, say, 12, 15 million kids every year that, you know, graduate,
34:42
but 100,000 go to these junior schools.
34:46
And if you look at all the AI, all the guys that did the deep-seeking, all the
34:53
guys that did the tech companies in China and so on,
34:55
All these guys came through this genius kind of schooling system that they have at
34:58
the moment,
34:58
where they kind of scrape the top of the cream of the crop of all those things.
35:01
They focus that genius in one area.
35:03
They give them all the stuff that they want to do.
35:05
You get like the guy that was the Turing Award, teaching you computer science.
35:09
You get all the support you need.
35:11
And that, I think, is...
35:14
something maybe they can explain exactly you know how we as an african copy that
35:21
maybe that might be an interesting thing to talk about okay well one
35:23
thing she will be talking about to me is something that she sent me she said the
35:28
economy has shifted away from property and exports
35:30
property we all know about towards advanced manufacturing ai clean energy and
35:34
domestic innovations
35:36
donald trump of course says no they just produce the windmills as he calls them and
35:42
then sells them to to america and europe
35:44
Obviously not the case.
35:46
Clean energy, massive in China.
35:48
And that's also linked in with AI.
35:50
Anyway, I'll report back, gentlemen.
35:52
Let me just, gosh, I've lost my screen again now with all these different things
35:54
I've got open.
35:56
Anyway, David, just to end here,
35:59
I want to say that when we were chatting over the weekend, at one point on Sunday
36:05
afternoon,
36:07
it was looking as though Arsenal would be nine points clear at the top.
36:10
Okay.
36:11
with a superior goal difference, meaning that City would have to win every game,
36:16
Arsenal would have to lose three games, and City would have to score more goals,
36:20
so it wouldn't be.
36:22
Then in 10 minutes, just in a 10-minute period, that all changed.
36:25
And now we've got City only three points behind.
36:29
Yes.
36:30
If Arsenal lose tonight, which is unlikely, but if they lose tonight, the
36:36
goal difference is more or less the same.
36:38
and If City beat Arsenal at the Etihad, I'm getting complicated here, then they'll
36:43
be level on points.
36:45
That would be fantastic for the neutral like me, wouldn't it?
36:48
But you're worried, right?
36:49
Yeah, I think one is, you know, there are 13 games still to go.
36:55
So anything can happen.
36:57
You can see it.
36:59
The players are tired.
37:00
They're stretched.
37:01
Injuries can happen.
37:03
One can't take it for granted.
37:05
Don't underrate Brentford either.
37:07
They're a very good team, well-drilled, play nice football.
37:12
Yeah, they don't win every game.
37:14
But, you know, you can get a nervous Arsenal getting onto the field.
37:18
You know, they've got to overcome the gyps, what do you call it, the yips?
37:22
The yips, yes.
37:23
And the jitters.
37:24
And they've got to go on there and say, listen, we're going to win this game.
37:27
I think they will.
37:27
Don't worry.
37:29
Don't worry.
37:29
I know.
37:30
I'm hoping they do.
37:30
But, you know, you can't take this for granted.
37:36
I'm just a realist.
37:37
I'm not one of these panickers.
37:40
I'm saying, look, it's far from over.
37:42
I think even at the bottom of the league, you've got the worst thing is you've got
37:47
Spurs there.
37:49
You know, just on the brink.
37:51
We'll talk about this more on Monday, Dave, because Viv's either gone or nodded
37:53
off.
37:54
Viv doesn't want to listen to this.
37:54
No, he doesn't listen to that rubbish.
37:56
He doesn't want to share my fears and concerns.
37:58
He hasn't had a beer for 25 years and he doesn't like football.
38:01
This is an area of pain for me, OK?
38:05
what are you talking about leading the league we haven't we haven't won five
38:11
games in a row for like what like a couple years now people are dying promising not
38:13
to cut
38:15
their hair and stuff you know what i mean oh that chef have you seen his hair it's
38:18
extraordinary hasn't he hasn't had it cut for what 10 months with something
38:20
like that we had four and then the last one oh god how long do you do it
38:26
No, no, this guy said, I will only cut my hair when Manchester United win three
38:32
games in a row.
38:34
And they keep on teasing him.
38:36
And he started with five in a row.
38:38
Sorry, thanks, Viv.
38:40
He started out with a very normal looking haircut.
38:42
Now it went to an afro, which looked really cool, I must say.
38:43
But now it's just completely out of control.
38:45
He looks like some kind of mega capital invader.
38:50
He's extraordinary.
38:51
But it's great fun.
38:52
And he won't cut it.
38:53
He's very good.
38:54
Aspen is the biggest gainer on the JSC today.
38:58
Well done on those people that picked it.
38:59
Nearly 8% higher.
39:00
Sassel, I said, of course, it was going down to 70, 80 the other day.
39:05
And sure enough, it's up 7% today to 126.
39:09
Well done on a good indicator, me.
39:11
AB InBev up 4.7%.
39:12
Italtile 3.7%.
39:14
TFG, I've got that in my portfolio, 2.2% higher.
39:18
Downside South, 32% after results that weren't well received, down 3.4%.
39:23
four percent Telcom down 2.8%.
39:25
Pick and Pay, poor Linda, down 2.5%.
39:28
Alphamin down 2.25%.
39:30
And Exaro down 1.8%. The all-share index of the JSC Securities Exchange today
39:36
closed at
39:38
122,213, up 0.4%.
39:41
And up a third was the JSC Top 40.
39:45
Gentlemen, thank you very much for your time, your extended time this evening.
39:48
Viv Govender is from Ransu, with David Shapiro from Sasser and Securities.
39:51
And that was an extended 5 o'clock shadow.
39:54
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40:01
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40:03
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