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Transcript

Felix Prehn - ⚠️Big Banks Are Dumping It All + Stock Market News 23 July 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix and Winston here, and let me give you a quick pre-market update, as we are back in familiar surroundings, surrounded by lots of cats.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Why is Bank of America, one of the largest banks in the world, warning of a massive bubble, far bigger than the dot-com bubble?
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand why and why there is more to the story, because there is still time to enjoy this rally.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: If you know what to look, in fact, I will give you the actual stock list of the most shorted stocks that could squeeze, just like open door ticker symbol open just has.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: If you want to get your hands on that, or maybe you're just going to miss out on it, well, if you're going to stick around, let me know in the chat.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Put a one in there if you're going to stick around.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: But are there reasons to worry?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Always.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: We have record insider selling, 75% of small companies are burning cash, we have jobs postings collapsing.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: I could go on, but I don't want to depress you.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So, bank of America and I've got it on the screen here put out this note.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've got the whole bloody thing.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: But the one thing I want to walk you through is this particular chart here.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: So I made it a little bit bigger for you.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: And what they're basically saying is that when we have most of the rally in just a handful of stocks, like we did in 2000, it was Microsoft, you know Intel, walmart and Oracle and so on, cisco and so on, and in 2020, it was again Microsoft.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Apple was just a couple of names, and in 2025, it is again just a couple of names, but the concentration, the part of the S&P 500 that is in just 10 companies right now, is a staggering.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Call it 38%.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: So 38% of the entire S&P 500 is in just these top 10 companies.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: So you might be thinking I'm diversifying by buying the index Bollocks.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: You are basically buying the top 10 companies and a bunch of underperforming rubbish, which, of course, is your prerogative.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: But that's really what's going on there.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Here's another way of looking at that the forward PE ratio.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So price over earnings, price over profit.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So we're looking at today's price divided by next year's profits.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Why are we looking at next year's profits?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Because Wall Street's forward looking.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: They don't really care about what happened last year.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: They care about what happened last year.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Somebody just knocked my camera.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: We just nudged ourselves a little bit, moved the whole bloody thing, and now we have a bit of a lighting post in the screen here, little backers.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So in the 2000 bubble, pe ratios for the top companies was at about 25x.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Right now we're at like 27x right.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So we're higher than we were at the dot-com bubble.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: That is why people are concerned.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: So do you know what stocks to sell?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Do you know what stocks to hold on to?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: And just be honest about it.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: There's no shame in not knowing.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Most people won't know.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: If you want to know which stocks to hold on to because they're going to continue to rally and which stocks we want to dump, really, really, really quickly, I'm going to teach you exactly that strategy and those rules, the way I learned it from Wall Street.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Winston will be there, even though he's leaving the screen.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: There he is Because once you know that you're going to, the fear, the FOMO, it all goes away.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, I never tell people what stocks to buy.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: I tell you what the rules are so you can make better decisions, better informed decisions, smarter decisions If you want to sleep better, be more confident and, yes, potentially make a lot more money, because you're not going to have those dumb losers in your portfolio like you had after the 2021 rally right, which is kind of where we are once again.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: You're going to learn that.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Join me this Saturday at 10 am, new York time.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Live for about an hour, maybe hour and a half.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: You're going to ask me lots of questions and I will teach you exactly that.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: The link is felixfrenzelogstraining.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: It's also the first link down below in the description.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: If you're going to join me, put a great big T in the chat or in the comments down below, and I know that you're going to be there.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Now these guys are going a little bit nutty.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: They're knocking over all sorts of things.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Now I think big lights might hit me shortly.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Wildcats I thought they were innocent little kittens.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Did you notice this one Opendoor?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: The dollar volume traded as a share of the market capitalization seriously, stop hitting my camera, guys is pretty much at GameStop levels.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: So complete freaking madness here.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: And what does that tell you?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Well, it kind of tells you that we're nearish bubble territory, right, but it also shows you that there's another one of the little bastards, the fluffy little kittens.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: It also shows you that there is still going to be a time to make bigly money.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: This here is the list of the biggest shorted stocks, or the stocks shorted the most, and you might want to take a screenshot of this.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I'm going to leave it on the screen here for another second.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: You can take a screenshot of that and then I'm going to scroll up so you get the bottom half of this as well.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Take another screenshot of this.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: You can obviously go back.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: It's going to be recorded.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: And then you know, aiva here is one of the ones that made us a lot of money so far this year.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: For example, it's already up like 300% since we got into it, and maybe that's how people are shorting it, who knows?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there you have a list, so go through them.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: But do you know how to go through them?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Do you know how to pick the good ones and the bad ones, and do you know how to do that?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Again, if you don't, no shame in it, there is no financial education in the world, right, but we are here to fix that.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: So come and join me.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: This Saturday.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: It's free, felixfranzorg slash training.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: But you see, there is more to go.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: The party is, I would say, it's about midnight, and we're in Spain, where they tend to party till about six in the morning.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: That's the way I see it.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So when we had the GME rally, look how long the rally was Right.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Look how long the 2016 rally was, for example, and look at 2016,.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Sorry 2023.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Was that 2016?
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Sorry, 2023.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: And look at where we are right now it's a baby rally.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: So if we did the 2010 thing again, 2020 thing again, which is GameStop I'm a little jet blacked, you have to forgive me We'd go significantly higher, and that's about as scientific as you're going to get on that, by the way, because this is the short interest retail flows.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: So you know we've got some opportunity to go quite a lot higher here.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: And there's another beautiful thing Markets, at all time highs tend to go higher.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Because there is no resistance, there are no losers.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Everyone's a winner.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Therefore, nobody wants to sell.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So a market like this one, where we've basically gone up for 60 days in a row above one of the key moving indicators moving averages 12 months later, we were on average.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: On average, we were 12.6% higher.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: So 12% higher would be the statistical historic performance we'd expect over the next 12 months.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: And this is going back 50 years, right?
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Would you take 12 plus 12%?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: A lot of people are going to say, ah, 12% is nothing.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Oh, 12% is not bad.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: 12% is about average actually for the next 12 months, so it's not bad at all, but it could be better.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Right, the median here you can see that I've just drawn over it.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: The median was 16%, which is sort of the middle one.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: It's not the average, but it's the middle one out of all those years.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So maybe it'll be a bit more.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, if Trump keeps doing what Trump's doing pumping the market, maybe it'll be a lot more.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I'm bullish on August.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Why am I bullish on August?
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Because, according to Goldman Sachs' buyback desk yes, they have a buyback desk August is the biggest buyback month of the year.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Big, beautiful buybacks.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Repeat after me very quickly five times big, beautiful buybacks.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Just, companies are going to buy their own shares at record levels, and all the big companies do this.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: You know things sort of Apple, that kind of thing, paypal, all the ones who've got too much money and they don't know what to do with it.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: They're going to buy back their own shares and it's going to help keep the momentum going for just a little bit longer, and that's a positive thing.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Another positive thing is this the VIX.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: What is the VIX, my friends?
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Does anybody know?
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: If you know what it is, put it in the chat down below.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: The VIX is the fear index, and when it's high we're fearful.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: When it's low, we're greedy Actually always greedy, aren't we?
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: It's at $16.50 right now.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe dollars is the wrong term, but it's at $16.50 right now.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: When we're below $20, we're kind of okay with it, and we're literally at the sort of lower range of where we've been for the last year.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: And that means the party isn't over yet.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Especially in this little room here.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: It's started, as you can tell, by all the mad little kittens racing around behind me.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: There are quite a few in this room, as you can probably tell.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I try to pick one up, but they're too quick.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: They tease me.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: They run behind the things and jump behind stuff, crawl on the things, say ha, you can't get me.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: But what you can get is learn what to buy, learn what to sell, learn what to dump, learn not to have FOMO, learn to sleep really, really well, because you know portfolio is taken care of and even the market crashes tomorrow or in September, you know precisely what to do.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: That's the beauty of understanding how the market really works, because the market just works in these predictable patterns.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: If you understand how that works, bops your ankle.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So if you're going to join me and learn that, go to phoenixfrontsorg slash training Link is down below and I look forward to seeing you there on Saturday.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: And yes, you've probably noticed this isn't live.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Why not?
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Because I landed at 8 am this morning and I was probably going to be a bit jet-lagged about 13 hours later, when this is meant to go out.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: But I hope you got some value out of this regardless.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I hate to leave people hanging and I wish you and the 300,000 crazy people who smashed the subscribe button on this channel a beautiful day, a beautiful week, and I hope to see you live tomorrow.