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Dave Bartoo Takes a Deep Dive Into Jeff Lebby & John David Baker as Offensive Coordinators. · Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds

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  Speaker 1: Day bar two on the Farm Bureau Insurance guest Line,
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  Speaker 1: and we're live from Dancing Rabbit Golf Club.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 1: Before we went to break, I asked you if you
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  Speaker 1: if you had to pick between John David Baker and
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  Speaker 1: Jeff Levy as an offensive coordinator, you would go John
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  Speaker 1: David Baker.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, I would, And you know, kind of judging by
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  Speaker 3: through tone, it's like, well why right, right, you know.
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  Speaker 3: And so for me when I talk about it on
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  Speaker 3: the show a lot is I'm a natural pessimist and
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  Speaker 3: I always look at the risk side on the bottom side, right,
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  Speaker 3: And so I would just simply go, okay, Levy Baker,
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  Speaker 3: what's the floor? Okay, well, yeah, you know, and what's
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  Speaker 3: my ceiling? And my ceiling is one elite year at
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  Speaker 3: Oklahoma with elite talent versus not top twenty five talent
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  Speaker 3: in the Big twelve, right, and then the bottom end
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  Speaker 3: of that we saw the bottom end of the offense
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  Speaker 3: was twenty twenty four with State, in twenty twenty with Oklahoma,
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  Speaker 3: and then over it at East Carolina. And I'm not
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  Speaker 3: saying John David is that much better right now? Because
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  Speaker 3: our sample size, we don't really have a floor, right,
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  Speaker 3: you know, he was good last year, not great. His
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  Speaker 3: first year was really good, but it was extremely up tempo,
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  Speaker 3: and he's not gonna be able to do that in
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  Speaker 3: the SEC right right. He's just key that there's too
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  Speaker 3: much athleticism when you try to play speed. There's too
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  Speaker 3: much speed on the field. I think for the SEC.
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  Speaker 3: That's why you have to have a running game. You
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  Speaker 3: can't go all pass right. You've got to be able
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  Speaker 3: to control tempo and and be able to move players around,
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  Speaker 3: not just go go fast because the athleticism will catch
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  Speaker 3: up to you. So that's why it's more about the
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  Speaker 3: floor than the ceiling in terms of the risk.
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  Speaker 1: Would either one of them be considered a top fifty
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  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator right now?
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  Speaker 2: Yes? No, I didn't know. No.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I mean to John David in our in our
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  Speaker 3: grading system, he's only been doing it for two years.
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  Speaker 3: So you wouldn't have a grade, Okay, you know I wouldn't.
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  Speaker 3: I wouldn't be good or bad about him. I would
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  Speaker 3: just say, look, here's the trend that he's going at
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  Speaker 3: right now. But then if you look at Jeff just
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  Speaker 3: been a play caller for four years right two at
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  Speaker 3: Oklahoma to a Mississippi State Okay, So he has two
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  Speaker 3: years outside the top seventy five one at Oklahoma one
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  Speaker 3: Mississippi State last year.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know what his is.
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  Speaker 1: You tell me he finished it at sixtieth with the
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  Speaker 1: Justede schedule.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Actually, I have an entirely new way of grading guys too,
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  Speaker 3: and I will pull that up right now.
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  Speaker 2: I'm asking the system.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta take a break. That's a perfect timing.
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  Speaker 1: So this is a good tease, all right. So and
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  Speaker 1: know are you listening on one oh five nine the
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  Speaker 1: zone or streaming the show? Where are you listening from?
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  Speaker 1: And who's your team? And what is your prediction for
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  Speaker 1: your team? Eleven and one?
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  Speaker 2: Which way are we.
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  Speaker 1: Going here for for your team? So six oho one, eight, eight, five, three, seven, seven,
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  Speaker 1: six and bar two we were talking about John David
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  Speaker 1: Baker and Jeff Levy and top fifty offensive coordinators going
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  Speaker 1: into the break. Do you have some numbers for our
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  Speaker 1: beautiful listeners.
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  Speaker 3: There they're still pulling right now? Okay, cool, But here
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  Speaker 3: here I'm gonna I want to hit on one guy
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  Speaker 3: that has been a thorn in the side of the
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  Speaker 3: fan base for seemingly a few years, and that's Mike Bobo.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got his numbers here, and he's been at
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  Speaker 2: Georgia for three years now.
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  Speaker 3: And by my calculations the way I do things, I
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  Speaker 3: look at three main things that drive football momentum, game control,
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  Speaker 3: scoring efficiency, and expected points above above average so EPA.
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  Speaker 3: Those are the big three. And and with Mike his
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  Speaker 3: first year at Georgia, he was seventh in the country
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  Speaker 3: and all that right, and we've talked about this, you
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  Speaker 3: got to be top three in anything to win a
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  Speaker 3: national title the last twenty five years. So he's seventh
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  Speaker 3: on offense, but then two years ago he was twelve,
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  Speaker 3: and last year it slipped to thirteen. So we all
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  Speaker 3: know that in the SEC, everybody's expectations are sky high, right,
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  Speaker 3: And so with Mike, he's still performing at a good level,
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  Speaker 3: but it's been a little bit of a regression each
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  Speaker 3: year relative to those national championship.
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  Speaker 2: Years with Mancoin Todd Monkin.
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  Speaker 3: Right, and so mister who's now at the Cleveland Browns, Right,
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  Speaker 3: So he's the head coach.
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  Speaker 2: He is the head coach. He is the head coach.
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  Speaker 3: And you know it's sometimes when I text with him
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  Speaker 3: back and forth, it's like it's it's like going to
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  Speaker 3: the college, back to the to the NFL and then
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  Speaker 3: the NFL staffing. When we talk about staffing, the decision
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  Speaker 3: in paradigm between college and the NFL.
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  Speaker 2: Is everybody listening.
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  Speaker 3: You got to understand in the NFL, you think college
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  Speaker 3: football is myopic, and next fan up and Buddy hires
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  Speaker 3: the NFL. There is so much pressure to hire somebody
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  Speaker 3: else's best friend. It is insane up there. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: you want to talk about a bunch of just I mean,
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  Speaker 3: it is just it's the NFL is a different, different
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  Speaker 3: beast when it comes down to staffing and relationships. I
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  Speaker 3: thought it was going to be better. It is not
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  Speaker 3: better than college football. It is it is much much worse.
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  Speaker 1: So I describe a little bit better. So give me
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  Speaker 1: an example. You don't have to give me a team. No,
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  Speaker 1: to give me an example.
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  Speaker 3: An assistant GM that that really likes bow Bounds and
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  Speaker 3: I'm the head coach. I don't like him. I don't
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  Speaker 3: like anything about him. I don't like his attitude. I
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  Speaker 3: don't think he's a good coach. But my assistant GM
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  Speaker 3: wants him on the staff, and I'm I'm just like, Okay.
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  Speaker 3: So there's because gms helped build rosters right the NFL level.
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  Speaker 3: What a lot of head coaches, you know, they don't
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  Speaker 3: even have a saying anything, and some of them don't
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  Speaker 3: even care to, so they're building rosters. You also have
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  Speaker 3: the GM profiles that are saying, hey, here's how you
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  Speaker 3: staff your guys too, And you know, look at look
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  Speaker 3: at Jerry Jones hiring flues. Okay, by the numbers, it
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  Speaker 3: was a terrible higher, right, Jerry Jones worst GM and
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  Speaker 3: call in professional sports.
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  Speaker 2: And he made he made the eber Flues higher.
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  Speaker 3: We know it, right, I mean, even though Schottenheimer is
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  Speaker 3: not going to throw him under the bus, we know
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  Speaker 3: Eberflues was a Jerry Jones guy. But by the numbers,
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  Speaker 3: ibra Flus's defenses at UH, at Indianapolis, and at Chicago
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  Speaker 3: regressed every year. And my calculations had Dallas at best
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  Speaker 3: the twenty five best defense in the NFL before the
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  Speaker 3: season started last year. Now he ended up thirty second,
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  Speaker 3: right right, you know, and and and and and and
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  Speaker 3: him and Colman were armed wrestling for the worst defense
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  Speaker 3: in the seven.
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  Speaker 1: Oh Coleman Hudler. Yeah, yeah, worst defensive coordinator in the
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  Speaker 1: history of Mississippi State.
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  Speaker 2: Oh god, they did that twenty twenty four bad throw
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  Speaker 2: them over the boat.
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  Speaker 3: So but but Jerry made that higher, right, That's a
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  Speaker 3: that's a GM telling the head coach.
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  Speaker 2: This is the guy you're hiring, right right?
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  Speaker 3: You could you, you know, could you imagine Keith Carter telling,
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  Speaker 3: you know, gold Pe Golding, here's here's the new OC.
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  Speaker 2: No, that's not right, but see that the inner workings
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  Speaker 2: of the NFL is is just a little bit different.
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  Speaker 3: You know, it's it's much more connective, it's much more,
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  Speaker 3: much more who you know. So John David Baker, though
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  Speaker 3: by his by his numbers last year and the year before,
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  Speaker 3: actually we're remarkably consistent. I think one of the best
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  Speaker 3: things pre John David Baker at e c U. E
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  Speaker 3: CU was number one, nineteen out of one hundred and
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  Speaker 3: thirty six in offense I my three metrics ECU. So
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  Speaker 3: when John David Baker took over at ECU that twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty three, that offense was trash.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, absolutely trash.
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  Speaker 1: So give him credit, yeah, for rebooting the offense overnight.
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  Speaker 3: Right and then and then actually maintaining it. Okay, because
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  Speaker 3: his points per possession year one, and this is not
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  Speaker 3: adjusted for talent, I'm assuming ECU is probably in the nineties,
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  Speaker 3: eighties or nineties in talent. So when when when he
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  Speaker 3: posted a sixty eight in scoring efficiency, that's way above talent. Okay, Okay,
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  Speaker 3: he was sixty fifth in game control and momentum development,
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  Speaker 3: the most important number in college but wball he was
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  Speaker 3: sixty fifth. He was fifty fifth last year even though
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  Speaker 3: his scoring efficiency and explosiveness dropped to eighty eight. So
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  Speaker 3: his ability to generate momentum and game control is his
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  Speaker 3: best quality as an offen defensive coordinator. And for his
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  Speaker 3: two years, his average his average ranking was about sixty. Okay,
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  Speaker 3: relative to the you know, relative to the talent, right right,
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  Speaker 3: we got to go back to the talent talent they had,
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  Speaker 3: and then you flipped over and we look at Jeff
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  Speaker 3: and so at Oklahoma, his high his best season was
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  Speaker 3: sixteenth in in momentum and game control, tenth in points
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  Speaker 3: per play, So his scoring efficiency was really good. Mississippi
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  Speaker 3: State the last two years. Okay, it was thirty eighth
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  Speaker 3: and now forty eighth in twenty twenty five. So offensively
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  Speaker 3: the numbers have been there actually pretty good. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: you and I both know State recruits in the mid
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  Speaker 3: twenties to the mid thirties, right, that's kind of their
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  Speaker 3: range bound recruiting, that's their ban, and so to have
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  Speaker 3: an offense in the thirties and forties is a little
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  Speaker 3: bit under the actual talent. But given those numbers, we
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  Speaker 3: just need an average defense right at State to be
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  Speaker 3: six and six, seven and five.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, if you'd have had Zach Arnett level defense the
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  Speaker 1: last two years and Coleman Hutzler finished outside the top
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  Speaker 1: one hundred and defensive scoring efficiency in both years is DC.
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  Speaker 1: So if you'd ha had somebody just finished between sixtieth
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  Speaker 1: and eightieth, you're looking at probably Levy is sitting here
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  Speaker 1: with a thirteen and twelve or twelve and thirteen overall
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  Speaker 1: record and a couple more wins and conference play instead
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  Speaker 1: of being one in fifteen, and people aren't in total
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  Speaker 1: preak out mode.
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  Speaker 3: Right, you know, twenty twenty four, let's just throw the
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  Speaker 3: film away right there, there's nothing redeeming about.
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  Speaker 1: It's the worst season in the history of my lifetime.
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  Speaker 2: And they've had some bett last year.
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  Speaker 3: Look at if tempo had been controlled, if we had
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  Speaker 3: a better tempo control and better game control offensively and defensively.
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  Speaker 3: You know, yeah, you had to come back miracle win
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  Speaker 3: against Arizona State, right right, So maybe you throw that
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  Speaker 3: one back in and say we didn't deserve to win
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  Speaker 3: that fair enough, but with good game control and good
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  Speaker 3: defensive control.
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  Speaker 2: Do you beat Texas? Yes? Do you beat Florida? Yes?
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  Speaker 2: You beat Tennessee yes? Wow?
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  Speaker 3: I mean the narrative in those three games, you flip
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  Speaker 3: flop those four games. You take the Arizona State loss, right,
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  Speaker 3: you would take that loss for a Texas Florida Tennessee win.
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  Speaker 2: In a heartbeat.
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  Speaker 1: The Texas game I think cost Levy and the Texas
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  Speaker 1: game I think costs the university thirty to forty million dollars.
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  Speaker 1: We gotta take a break. We got the big sec
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  Speaker 1: inside our head. Coming up next, I want to continue
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