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Ep. 123 : NL East Preview With Chris Towers · Cards & Categories

0:15
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to Episode one twenty three f
0:19
Speaker 1: cards and categories. I am Mike cool Ard from Rasball,
0:22
Speaker 1: joined as always by my very good friend Jeremy Burr,
0:25
Speaker 1: also from Rasball.
0:26
Speaker 2: How you doing tonight, buddy.
0:28
Speaker 3: Doing fine? Glad to be back this last week. I
0:31
Speaker 3: was on the seven day il. I actually did have
0:33
Speaker 3: a concussion, but I could not speak, and so podcasting
0:36
Speaker 3: without being able to speak is generally not nearly as
0:39
Speaker 3: entertaining for the listeners out there. But we're back full health,
0:42
Speaker 3: ready to go. Because of that, I think I've caused
0:45
Speaker 3: a little bit of a glut of news that we're
0:47
Speaker 3: going to need to cover here for sure. So let's
0:50
Speaker 3: let's we got a lot we got to get into tonight.
0:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Baseball transaction guds certainly shined upon us after
0:57
Speaker 1: they knew that you were going to be off last week,
0:58
Speaker 1: because it is really the hot stove is piping hot,
1:03
Speaker 1: that is for sure. And I mean maybe it's going
1:06
Speaker 1: to be cool after this because pretty much all of
1:08
Speaker 1: the major free agents.
1:10
Speaker 2: Are off the board.
1:11
Speaker 1: You know, We've still got a few stragglers like from
1:13
Speaker 1: Bervaldez and the like, but we've got most of the
1:17
Speaker 1: big guys finding homes over the past couple weeks since
1:20
Speaker 1: we last met. But for the main portion of this pod,
1:23
Speaker 1: we are going to preview the NL East and we
1:26
Speaker 1: are going to be joined by the one and only
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Speaker 1: Chris Towers from CBS Sports and the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast.
1:35
Speaker 1: So just you could probably tell as we're going to
1:39
Speaker 1: get into some of these discussion points that we recorded
1:42
Speaker 1: the portion with Chris before we did this intro, so
1:45
Speaker 1: we had a great conversation on all the NLS aspects.
1:49
Speaker 1: Broke one of the news stories that we're about to
1:51
Speaker 1: discuss because it went down as we've been recording here
1:54
Speaker 1: on January twenty first, the Wednesday night. But we've got
1:58
Speaker 1: lots of news and notes covered, not only transactions, but
2:01
Speaker 1: we've also got just baseball happenings and uh oh yeah.
2:05
Speaker 1: On top of it all, twenty twenty six Top Series
2:08
Speaker 1: one has started to get on the schedule and they
2:10
Speaker 1: released the design of flagship for twenty twenty six, so
2:14
Speaker 1: we got some bits to discuss there too. So hope
2:17
Speaker 1: everybody's ready. This is gonna be the marathon pod of
2:20
Speaker 1: all marathon pods. Let's kick off with the signings first.
2:23
Speaker 1: So first, we've got the signing that, honestly, this might
2:28
Speaker 1: break baseball, So this might cause a twenty twenty seven lockout,
2:32
Speaker 1: like in its on its own as the Dodgers are
2:35
Speaker 1: the winners for the Kyle Tuckers series, mostly because it
2:40
Speaker 1: is a four year, two hundred and forty million dollar
2:43
Speaker 1: contract that includes opt out starting after the second year,
2:46
Speaker 1: gonna be the highest aav ever at sixty million dollars
2:50
Speaker 1: per year. And then on top of it, the Dodgers
2:53
Speaker 1: are playing one hundred and ten percent tax on this
2:56
Speaker 1: for the years that he's on the Dodgers roster because
3:00
Speaker 1: of the current CBT rules and everything. So technically they're
3:03
Speaker 1: paying like one hundred and twenty million dollars plus because
3:07
Speaker 1: there are some deferrals in here, so it's not going
3:10
Speaker 1: to be quite that. I think it's going to be
3:11
Speaker 1: approximate value of fifty seven point one million dollars, you know,
3:15
Speaker 1: only fifty seven point one million dollars. But the Dodgers
3:18
Speaker 1: are essentially paying like almost one hundred and twenty million
3:21
Speaker 1: dollars next year just to roster Kyle Tucker and fill
3:25
Speaker 1: him into the outfield. Their right field moves Taoskar and
3:30
Speaker 1: Hernandez over to left field. Tough year that Kyle Tucker's
3:35
Speaker 1: coming off of, had an injury again with the Chicago Cubs,
3:39
Speaker 1: and then just kind of like faded because of that
3:43
Speaker 1: all from our collective memory overall, And uh, this is
3:47
Speaker 1: a guy who used to be a first round stalwart.
3:49
Speaker 1: Is he back there for you in going into twenty
3:52
Speaker 1: twenty six now that he's on the Dodgers.
3:55
Speaker 3: I think he has to be. I absolutely think he
3:57
Speaker 3: has to be, because this is still a guy even
3:59
Speaker 3: on a day is what we're calling the last year,
4:03
Speaker 3: twenty two homers, twenty five steals, and you know he
4:06
Speaker 3: hit for a two sixty six average, but the underlie
4:08
Speaker 3: metricsh that it should have been better. He was battling injuries.
4:12
Speaker 3: He has been for a few years and still been
4:14
Speaker 3: putting up numbers like this is the like best bat
4:17
Speaker 3: to be this uh has not yet gone thirty thirty,
4:20
Speaker 3: like if that makes sense, Like he looks like a
4:21
Speaker 3: thirty thirty bat. He yet had to really actually pull
4:23
Speaker 3: it off. But there's like no better landing spot for
4:28
Speaker 3: a guy like Kyle Tucker. Ballpark's better, power's gonna play, better,
4:32
Speaker 3: lineup protections better, He's gonna get it I'm not sure
4:35
Speaker 3: if he's gonna knocket a bunch of runs or score
4:36
Speaker 3: a bunch of runs for both, but uh, it's just
4:39
Speaker 3: gonna increase. Like we're looking at a guy here who
4:42
Speaker 3: could go thirty thirty and I'm not going I'm gonna
4:45
Speaker 3: go want a limit and say he could knock in
4:47
Speaker 3: one hundred and ten, score one hundred and twenty and
4:49
Speaker 3: hit two ninety. Like, this could be an amazing season
4:52
Speaker 3: for Kyle Tucker. The pre and the pressure is off,
4:55
Speaker 3: Like I think that's the other thing about going to LA,
4:57
Speaker 3: Like he's always been the guy and it's like the
5:00
Speaker 3: pressures on do the things, and he's like, I don't know,
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Speaker 3: seventeenth on the totem pole in LA. I don't know
5:06
Speaker 3: where that comes in. So I think this puts him
5:09
Speaker 3: back right in the first round conversation. For me, I'm
5:12
Speaker 3: really excited about this move for Kyle Tucker. There's a
5:14
Speaker 3: whole other slew of things we don't need to get
5:16
Speaker 3: into how I feel about this move from an overall
5:19
Speaker 3: baseball perspective, but it is what it is. For Kyle Tucker.
5:25
Speaker 3: This is a big move.
5:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. This is a huge boost to
5:28
Speaker 1: his value couldn't have been. I mean, really just about
5:32
Speaker 1: the best landing spot for him overall. I mean, great park,
5:38
Speaker 1: the home runs in Los Angeles are very underrated, So
5:42
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a monster season out of
5:45
Speaker 1: him when he settles into that third spot and the
5:47
Speaker 1: lineup for the Dodgers. All right, The next signing we
5:50
Speaker 1: have is another big guy going off the board, Bo
5:54
Speaker 1: Baschett landing with the New York Mets. Honestly, it was
5:57
Speaker 1: kind of a domino effect. The Mets were in on
5:59
Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker, and once Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers,
6:03
Speaker 1: they immediately went out to get Bobaschett so that they
6:06
Speaker 1: made sure that they didn't get totally wiped off the
6:08
Speaker 1: board of these big time free agents. A three year,
6:12
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty six million dollar deal here for Bobashet,
6:14
Speaker 1: Another high aav short but short overall contract.
6:21
Speaker 2: For Bishett as.
6:23
Speaker 1: I think, I don't know if it's like being driven
6:25
Speaker 1: by the twenty seven lockout kind of looming over everything,
6:28
Speaker 1: or if it is just this is what teams were offering,
6:33
Speaker 1: and players are confident enough in themselves to take those
6:36
Speaker 1: shorter contracts and say, hey, you know what, I'll take
6:39
Speaker 1: this now and hit the market again in my early
6:41
Speaker 1: thirties and maybe sign another deal that goes a little
6:44
Speaker 1: bit longer. But Bobachett had a great bounce back season
6:48
Speaker 1: last year with one hundred and thirty nine games a
6:50
Speaker 1: one to thirty four WRC plus. That's after he put
6:54
Speaker 1: up only eighty one games and seventy WRC plus and
6:57
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. So my question here for you is
7:01
Speaker 1: who is the real Bobachett. I think last year when
7:04
Speaker 1: we were going into the pre preseason, you and I
7:07
Speaker 1: were kind of mum on him just because like the
7:10
Speaker 1: actual Bobashett Aura has always kind of outstripped the actual
7:15
Speaker 1: fantasy production. On top of like people are dreaming for
7:18
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one Bobachett to come back. When he went
7:21
Speaker 1: twenty nine twenty five with a two to ninety eight
7:23
Speaker 1: batting average, those days I think are long gone. The
7:27
Speaker 1: stolen bases probably aren't coming back, and I don't think
7:29
Speaker 1: that level of power is ever coming back for Bishet.
7:32
Speaker 1: So what are you doing with him going into twenty
7:35
Speaker 1: twenty six.
7:36
Speaker 2: He is going to pick up third base.
7:37
Speaker 1: That's where he's gonna be playing for the Mets, which
7:39
Speaker 1: is great, But do you have confidence in this landing
7:43
Speaker 1: spot for him?
7:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's be really interesting what does to
7:47
Speaker 3: him because he's going to this massive market and he's
7:51
Speaker 3: gonna be treated with that contract as a massive player,
7:54
Speaker 3: and I don't know if that's going to translate over
7:56
Speaker 3: to fantasy hype, which is the thing, because to your point,
8:00
Speaker 3: I've always been a little out in Boba Shed. He
8:01
Speaker 3: is like a legitimate three hundred hitter, which is a
8:05
Speaker 3: lot to be said for value in today's game. He's
8:07
Speaker 3: a twenty homer guy, but he's not much else. He's
8:11
Speaker 3: gonna be basically a zero for you and speed, he's
8:14
Speaker 3: not a very fast guy. He's gonna get some decent
8:17
Speaker 3: kind of stats, but you know, he's also not the
8:19
Speaker 3: you know, hasn't been a model of health the last
8:21
Speaker 3: three years, and so I think there's a little bit
8:23
Speaker 3: of risk there. But where he's going right now in
8:25
Speaker 3: drafts at kind of a you know, the eighth, ninth,
8:28
Speaker 3: tenth round, that's actually not too bad. I actually like
8:32
Speaker 3: the price right now for Boba sheet for what he
8:34
Speaker 3: can do from an average perspective. No, you're probably gonna
8:36
Speaker 3: let load up on a Kyle Schwarber, Nick Kurtz or
8:39
Speaker 3: you know Matt Olsener, guys like that early to get
8:42
Speaker 3: that power. I actually like that combination of Boba sheet.
8:44
Speaker 3: So really, for me, it comes down to what's gonna happen,
8:47
Speaker 3: because if he's got multiple position eligibility, including that third base,
8:51
Speaker 3: that's actually really really valuable. And we're talking about going
8:54
Speaker 3: in the range of guys like Michael Bush, Trevor Story,
9:02
Speaker 3: Joe Adell, Like, this feels like an actual discount right
9:05
Speaker 3: now for Bushet. I just hope the signing doesn't push
9:08
Speaker 3: it way up the board where he becomes a spot
9:11
Speaker 3: where we have to have the other conversation which we've
9:13
Speaker 3: been having about below chev for the last few years.
9:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that Jo Adell press.
9:17
Speaker 1: I am already penciling him in for your al lest
9:21
Speaker 1: Angels self, So I'm ready.
9:23
Speaker 3: To miss well. I might just saw the whole Angels
9:26
Speaker 3: team and everyone. They just signed y'ad Macata, so like,
9:30
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know what they're doing.
9:32
Speaker 1: Uh, but yeah, let's talk about the guy who's actually
9:34
Speaker 1: going right below Joe Adell in that ADP who signed
9:38
Speaker 1: the next big contract, Alex Bregman, third baseman joining the
9:41
Speaker 1: Chicago Cubs five years, one hundred and seventy five million dollars.
9:45
Speaker 2: And this is an interesting.
9:47
Speaker 1: Move because the Cubs didn't really need a third basement.
9:50
Speaker 1: They had Matt Shaw, who looks like he's going to
9:53
Speaker 1: be moved into a utility role kind of play all
9:57
Speaker 1: all across the diamond, including some outfield and some dh
10:00
Speaker 1: which I mean will be good for his eligibilities overall.
10:03
Speaker 1: But let's focus on Alex Bregman here. Of it all
10:06
Speaker 1: coming off of the season with the Red Sox where
10:08
Speaker 1: he hit two seventy three, three sixty four sixty two
10:12
Speaker 1: so one twenty five WRC plus it was only one
10:14
Speaker 1: hundred and fourteen games because I was actually watching the
10:17
Speaker 1: game when he did this, but just absolutely shredded his
10:20
Speaker 1: hamstring when he was rounding first base during a game
10:23
Speaker 1: and never really was able to kind of like get
10:27
Speaker 1: over that hump from you know, it was two months
10:30
Speaker 1: lost almost from late May to early July, and then
10:35
Speaker 1: had to kind of get back into the groove for
10:37
Speaker 1: the Red Sox, did pop eighteen homers for you and
10:40
Speaker 1: honestly looked like regular old Alex Bregman. So are you
10:45
Speaker 1: expecting more of that for him? In Chicago or are
10:48
Speaker 1: you expecting it to change a little bit as he
10:53
Speaker 1: was going to be entering his age thirty two season.
10:56
Speaker 1: He's played in very good ballparks for his swing, Chicago
11:00
Speaker 1: Wrigley Field not exactly that. So what are you doing
11:03
Speaker 1: with Alex Bregman going into twenty twenty six?
11:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he gets a little bumped down for
11:09
Speaker 3: overall value for where he you know, other places that
11:11
Speaker 3: he could have signed. That said, like, Alex Bregman has
11:15
Speaker 3: kind of been the steady Eddy kind of guy. We're
11:18
Speaker 3: talking mid twenties, homers to sixty average, you know, flirting
11:21
Speaker 3: with one hundred rbi, relatively good health. I know Lester
11:26
Speaker 3: wasn't perfect, but he's kind of throughout his career been
11:29
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty game guy. So I actually see
11:32
Speaker 3: a lot of value in Bregman, And I feel like
11:33
Speaker 3: he's like just like the sheet, like dropping down the
11:37
Speaker 3: value board and the fact that he's now in that
11:39
Speaker 3: like tenth eleventh round spot, Like I actually think that
11:43
Speaker 3: all of a sudden Bregman's become a value because he
11:47
Speaker 3: is gonna be reliable. He is gonna you know, fill
11:50
Speaker 3: your stat sheets. So again, a guy that hits twenty
11:52
Speaker 3: five homers. Scores will call it eighty five runs, knocks
11:57
Speaker 3: in ninety hits, two six s like tenth round. Yeah,
12:02
Speaker 3: I'll take that all day. And so I think that
12:04
Speaker 3: the same thing kind of applies here. Both of these
12:06
Speaker 3: set guys, big markets are their draft values to start
12:09
Speaker 3: to creep up just because the uncertainty of where they
12:12
Speaker 3: were gonna sign. I do think Bregman got the the
12:14
Speaker 3: you know, raw end of the deal here from a
12:16
Speaker 3: ballpark perspective, but it's not enough to really uh go
12:21
Speaker 3: against where he's going from an average raft position. Right now,
12:23
Speaker 3: I still think he's a bye and I think people
12:27
Speaker 3: are kind of overlooking him, looking for the shiny new
12:28
Speaker 3: toys and uh, steady Eddy now a veteran. Somehow, Alex
12:32
Speaker 3: Bragman got old on us.
12:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, time is coming for all of us. I hate
12:37
Speaker 1: for someone's wanted to be here. Okay, let's get into
12:42
Speaker 1: the next major signing. We're gonna go back to Alex
12:44
Speaker 1: Bregman's old team in Boston where they made a move
12:48
Speaker 1: finally and signed Ranger Suarez to a five year deal.
12:53
Speaker 1: And this is gonna this is a really interesting landing spot.
12:57
Speaker 1: I think for Suez because traditionally Fenway has been a
13:01
Speaker 1: bad spot for left handed pitchers overall, as you know,
13:04
Speaker 1: it allows teams to stack right handed bats against those lefties.
13:09
Speaker 1: But Garrett Crochet I think kind of calmed some of
13:13
Speaker 1: those worries. As I mean, it also helps that he
13:16
Speaker 1: was Garrett Crochet. You couldn't touch him. Ranger Suarez not
13:19
Speaker 1: quite the strikeout pitcher that Crochet is, but has been.
13:23
Speaker 1: I mean, you want to talk Seti Eddies right here,
13:25
Speaker 1: He's been over the past four years with the Phillies
13:29
Speaker 1: pretty much a spot on one hundred and fifty innings,
13:32
Speaker 1: ten wins, three fifty nine era with around like a
13:37
Speaker 1: one two one two five whip and so uh part
13:43
Speaker 1: of that too is like honestly, he's never really played
13:46
Speaker 1: in front of great defenses there in Philadelphia, and Boston
13:50
Speaker 1: does have a better defense, or at least did last year.
13:54
Speaker 1: I mean a lot of that was Bregmant at their
13:56
Speaker 1: basement probably helping out.
13:58
Speaker 3: Uh.
13:58
Speaker 1: So we'll see what the Red Sox of putting at
14:01
Speaker 1: third base and what the solution is there. But how
14:04
Speaker 1: do you feel about Ranger swar Is landing with the
14:06
Speaker 1: Red Sox? He is going later in drafts. Right now,
14:09
Speaker 1: he's like average pick one sixty five, but I can
14:13
Speaker 1: see that his min pick is dropping pretty rapidly as
14:16
Speaker 1: he's now found a home in Boston. So what do
14:20
Speaker 1: you think about Ranger Suarez going into twenty twenty six?
14:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Suarez is one of those tough ones
14:26
Speaker 3: because he's never been able to stay completely healthy. Like
14:29
Speaker 3: he's he's one hundred and fifty inn guy. His stuff
14:33
Speaker 3: doesn't absolutely blow you away, but he's really really solid
14:36
Speaker 3: across the board, a little more crafty guy at the
14:39
Speaker 3: end of the days as that lefty. I think where
14:42
Speaker 3: his average draft pick right now is. I mean, we're
14:44
Speaker 3: talking about the Luis Castillo hinter Bybee type of range
14:48
Speaker 3: is absolutely worth buying. I do think this is going
14:51
Speaker 3: to creep it up a little bit. I think that's
14:52
Speaker 3: going to start to put things into question because I
14:55
Speaker 3: do think this ballpark and this division is going to
14:57
Speaker 3: be tough for him, and so I don't I see
15:00
Speaker 3: a mid three cra I see, you know, a less
15:03
Speaker 3: than a strikeout an inning, but a good whip and
15:07
Speaker 3: avoids the blow up. So I like him as a
15:09
Speaker 3: mid rotation starter. I don't think I like him as
15:13
Speaker 3: the contract says he should be a number one type
15:16
Speaker 3: of thing. But that's like the economics of baseball don't
15:19
Speaker 3: always translate to, you know, the actual talent that the
15:22
Speaker 3: player has a little bit more about true economics than talent.
15:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it might also just be
15:29
Speaker 1: an aspect of that getting old stuff that we're just
15:32
Speaker 1: talking about. We gott to reset, like what it costs
15:35
Speaker 1: for pictures on the open market and stuff, because I
15:37
Speaker 1: think we're about to be blown away by the Treak
15:39
Speaker 1: Schooble contract that's going to be coming after playing thirty six. Yeah,
15:43
Speaker 1: we will be, because I mean, this team's probably going
15:46
Speaker 1: to be in the running for Tweak Schooble that just
15:48
Speaker 1: made the next signing the Yankees bring him back Cody Bellinger.
15:52
Speaker 1: And Bellinger, I mean, it was a really fantastic season
15:55
Speaker 1: for him. Clocked in as the thirty sixth player on
15:58
Speaker 1: our RAS ball Player Raider for last year, and he
16:02
Speaker 1: slashed two seventy two, three thirty four four eighty with
16:06
Speaker 1: twenty nine bombs, thirteen stone bases, ninety eight RBI, eighty
16:10
Speaker 1: nine runs, one twenty five WRC plus. When you're making
16:14
Speaker 1: your projections for Cody Bellinger are you just copying and
16:17
Speaker 1: pasting that season he put up last year for the Yankees.
16:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd say more or less, yes, we're just copying
16:23
Speaker 3: pasting it forward. I think the power may take a
16:28
Speaker 3: little bit of a step back, but not considerably so,
16:31
Speaker 3: Like I'm probably penciling been in twenty five homers ten
16:34
Speaker 3: steals to seventy average with really solid counting stats, And
16:39
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the projection systems right now and I'm
16:41
Speaker 3: probably a little over all the projection systems for Bellinger,
16:44
Speaker 3: But like, yeah, he's he's going to a spot he
16:47
Speaker 3: was very comfortable, Will had good lineup protection. There's no
16:50
Speaker 3: reason not to just kind of recycle that back.
16:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that's probably good to call
16:56
Speaker 1: out for the listeners out there, because at the end
16:59
Speaker 1: of the day, our current player raider for twenty twenty
17:03
Speaker 1: six has him as like the seventy eighth player, So
17:08
Speaker 1: there's certainly wiggle room there currently going as like the
17:11
Speaker 1: ninety third player off the board in ADP data. Like honestly, this,
17:16
Speaker 1: when we get to our al at least next week,
17:18
Speaker 1: Cody Bellinger might end up being my bye because the
17:23
Speaker 1: stolen bases are there, the volume is there, he's gonna
17:25
Speaker 1: be hitting third for the New York Yankees. It's a
17:27
Speaker 1: great park for him. I think that the draft data
17:32
Speaker 1: is also going to start creeping up pretty quickly and
17:34
Speaker 1: pushing Bellinger into like the third and fourth round. But
17:38
Speaker 1: I think it's fair given where he's at. He's only
17:40
Speaker 1: thirty years old.
17:41
Speaker 3: Yep. I mean he's approved. I mean he's not the
17:44
Speaker 3: you know, he's not the guy he was in twenty
17:46
Speaker 3: eighteen twenty nineteen. Let's be clear, he's not that guy.
17:49
Speaker 3: But he has turned into more of an all around hitter.
17:52
Speaker 3: You know, he's much more patient to plate, he picks
17:54
Speaker 3: the spots, he does the things he needs to do.
17:57
Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't know if he's gonna get up
17:59
Speaker 3: the third, fourth round kind of thing, but hey, I
18:02
Speaker 3: think people are going to quickly move him up the
18:05
Speaker 3: draft board now that he's back in New York.
18:08
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we're going to really drop off a
18:11
Speaker 1: cliff a little bit here in terms of the level
18:14
Speaker 1: of signings because I'm going to just run through all
18:17
Speaker 1: the signings before we get into trades and other moves.
18:20
Speaker 2: But the next signing we have is J. T.
18:23
Speaker 1: Rail Mutu resigning with the Philadelphia Phillies on three year
18:27
Speaker 1: deal forty five million dollars. This is a lot for J.
18:33
Speaker 1: T rail Muto coming off a tough year. He is
18:36
Speaker 1: now thirty four years old as well, lots of wear
18:39
Speaker 1: and tear on those legs as a catcher. The Phillies
18:42
Speaker 1: were also kind of stuck doing this deal because all
18:45
Speaker 1: those dominoes that we just talked about really fell. The Phillies,
18:49
Speaker 1: i think, thought that they had Bo Baschett in the
18:51
Speaker 1: bag as well before the Dodgers signed Tucker, and then
18:55
Speaker 1: the Mets rush just signed baschet so they had to
18:58
Speaker 1: scramble make sure that they.
19:00
Speaker 2: Didn't lose J. T rail Muto too.
19:02
Speaker 1: He's coming off his worst season since twenty fifteen when
19:08
Speaker 1: he was a twenty four year old.
19:10
Speaker 2: It was only a ninety four.
19:11
Speaker 1: Wrsc plus two fifty seven three fifteen three eighty four slug.
19:16
Speaker 1: That was the worst slugging percentage he had ever put up.
19:20
Speaker 1: He also the stolen bases have evaporated at this point,
19:23
Speaker 1: where used to be able to count on like double
19:25
Speaker 1: digit stolen bases from J. Trail Muto gave him a
19:28
Speaker 1: lot of value as a catcher. That is evaporated. Only
19:31
Speaker 1: eight stolen bases last year twelve homers. What are you
19:35
Speaker 1: doing with real Mutto going to twenty twenty six because
19:37
Speaker 1: he was banged up as well. You know, he played
19:42
Speaker 1: through it, but it just definitely showed him that stat line.
19:45
Speaker 1: So is he still a viable like starting catcher in
19:48
Speaker 1: twelve teamers because last year he was starting to fade.
19:51
Speaker 2: Out of that.
19:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, honestly, he's not. Like this contract is
19:55
Speaker 3: more about clubhouse and actual the catcher position and what
20:03
Speaker 3: he can command with the staff. It's not about his
20:06
Speaker 3: bat And if you look at the depth of catcher
20:09
Speaker 3: that all of a sudden came out of nowhere, I mean,
20:12
Speaker 3: you're you're talking the top ten guys are almost all
20:14
Speaker 3: top one hundred picks at catcher. It's just it's just
20:18
Speaker 3: exploded from a talent perspective. And Real Muto is not
20:22
Speaker 3: a starting catcher and a twelve teamer. He's he's a
20:25
Speaker 3: two two catcher type guy, but even two catcher leagues,
20:28
Speaker 3: Like I'm I'm happy with almost everybody that I would
20:31
Speaker 3: have there, because you're talking about comparing him the Kyle Teel,
20:35
Speaker 3: Dylan Dingler, Austin Wells looking on hoppy like kind of
20:39
Speaker 3: realm and he's not really standing up to those guys.
20:44
Speaker 3: So yeah, JT good real world signing. From a fantasy perspective,
20:48
Speaker 3: he's almost off the board unless you're in a two
20:50
Speaker 3: catcher league at this point.
20:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's totally fair.
20:53
Speaker 1: So next signing we have, I love this one.
20:57
Speaker 2: This one.
20:58
Speaker 3: I need to let you cover this one, just be frank,
20:59
Speaker 3: because like this is just everything about the signing, like
21:03
Speaker 3: just because of the core of who you are, So
21:05
Speaker 3: please take this one away.
21:08
Speaker 2: It really is, like it's so it's so perfect.
21:10
Speaker 1: We have Willie Castro signing a two year deal with
21:13
Speaker 1: the Colorado Rockies, where he should be their starting third baseman,
21:17
Speaker 1: and even if he isn't, he's gonna find an everyday
21:21
Speaker 1: spot for these Rockies because they're awful Troy Johnston as
21:26
Speaker 1: their starting first baseman right now, who was just like
21:30
Speaker 1: waived by Miami in November, Like this team is terrible
21:35
Speaker 1: and really, Castro is gonna play every day for the
21:38
Speaker 1: Colorado Rockies. He has second third outfield eligibility and he
21:45
Speaker 1: might even have a little bit of shortstop lingering in
21:47
Speaker 1: some leagues, but if not, he might pick it up.
21:50
Speaker 1: And so on top of maybe first base like, really,
21:54
Speaker 1: Castro will play anywhere. He'll play everywhere he puts up.
21:58
Speaker 1: Last year, he came off of a season where only
22:01
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty games but still put up eleven
22:03
Speaker 1: homers ten stolen bases.
22:05
Speaker 2: The batting average.
22:06
Speaker 1: Did take a step back because, especially when he got
22:09
Speaker 1: into the Cubs, it was tough for him to really
22:11
Speaker 1: find a groove without that everyday spot. Only hit one
22:14
Speaker 1: seventy with the Cubs after hitting two forty five with
22:17
Speaker 1: the Twins. This is a guy who's going so late
22:22
Speaker 1: in drafts right now. It's starting to increase certainly, but
22:26
Speaker 1: should be around pick like three hundred when.
22:30
Speaker 2: It's all said and done. I think.
22:33
Speaker 1: This dude's going to be on so many of my
22:34
Speaker 1: teams because this is exactly what keeps you going during
22:37
Speaker 1: a season. A fifteen to fifteen bat plus if you
22:41
Speaker 1: can stream him exclusively at cores, like I think he's
22:45
Speaker 1: going to hit three hundred and cores Tyler Freeman did
22:47
Speaker 1: last year. He hit three hundred and coors last year.
22:50
Speaker 1: Willi Castro is a contact mavin. He's going to find
22:52
Speaker 1: those gaps. I love Willy Castro for fantasy purposes. In
22:56
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six I don't even need to look
22:59
Speaker 1: at any of the Savant or anything like that, because
23:01
Speaker 1: this is just a pure volume play and nothing's gonna
23:04
Speaker 1: stop Wally cast from playing every day for the Rockies.
23:07
Speaker 3: What say you, I, this is the perfect bench bat
23:11
Speaker 3: which you're you're selling is more. I get that, but
23:14
Speaker 3: I don't.
23:15
Speaker 2: Think he is.
23:16
Speaker 1: But he's gonna play because you're always gonna have an
23:18
Speaker 1: injury that this is like this.
23:20
Speaker 3: Is Ben zobrist In in Colorado. First of all, I
23:24
Speaker 3: just love to make ob scure Lot. You're the references here.
23:28
Speaker 1: You're the one that's really high and Willy Caster. I
23:29
Speaker 1: cadn't say it's Ben Sopris. I can say he's at baseball.
23:34
Speaker 3: But like it's just that Swiss army knife kind of
23:36
Speaker 3: guy that like you put on your bench and now
23:40
Speaker 3: I just have to worry about so much less because
23:42
Speaker 3: he could literally plug it almost anywhere. And you know
23:45
Speaker 3: that he's not gonna be a zero. He's just gonna
23:47
Speaker 3: like give you little counting sets here and there. He's
23:50
Speaker 3: not gonna torpedo you. So like I Willie Castro is
23:52
Speaker 3: like the weird guy that you target as a bench guy.
23:56
Speaker 3: Like it's not upside It's just flexibility, is what he so, Yeah,
24:01
Speaker 3: you couldn't have been better than going to Colorado.
24:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's a perfect landing spot for him
24:06
Speaker 1: and switch hitter, so you don't have to worry about platoons.
24:10
Speaker 1: It's just a total Swiss army knife for fantasy. So
24:13
Speaker 1: I would suggest grabbing him everywhere you can. Price dependent,
24:17
Speaker 1: Yes you can, very sure, Like this is a guy
24:22
Speaker 1: that you pick up for five dollars and you're mixed
24:24
Speaker 1: like twelve team auction, Like that's my cap.
24:27
Speaker 2: So don't go to that might be high, that might
24:29
Speaker 2: be high, but don't go to bananas.
24:31
Speaker 1: This is a guy who you know if he's flying
24:34
Speaker 1: underneath the radars. Adam to your bench, all right, As
24:37
Speaker 1: we keep going down the step of the magnitude of
24:40
Speaker 1: these signings, next one we have Ryan Stanek signing in
24:44
Speaker 1: Saint Louis, where he's gonna enter.
24:47
Speaker 2: This is a wide open closer's.
24:48
Speaker 1: Job right now, especially because I think Jojo Romero is
24:52
Speaker 1: gonna be traded before opening day. He's too good of
24:54
Speaker 1: a left handed pitcher to be in Saint Louis given
24:58
Speaker 1: the way that they're just kind of selling everything that's
25:01
Speaker 1: not nailed down on this team. And so you've got
25:04
Speaker 1: a mix of Ryan Stanek, Matt Spohonson, Riley O'Brien, maybe
25:10
Speaker 1: even a little bit of Ryan Fernandez in the mix
25:13
Speaker 1: for the closer for the Saint Louis Cardinals. We're going
25:16
Speaker 1: to get into this when we eventually do our n
25:18
Speaker 1: Our Central preview. But I think, just like last year,
25:20
Speaker 1: this Cardinals team is going to be better than people expect.
25:23
Speaker 1: You know, they only won seventy eight games last year,
25:27
Speaker 1: but they stunk down the stretch when they really started
25:30
Speaker 1: tearing the pieces off, and I think, I mean, we're
25:33
Speaker 1: gonna get into uh well, actually that was the last
25:36
Speaker 1: time that we talked that they trade no Arnado, But
25:38
Speaker 1: like it's a little bit of like a addition by
25:40
Speaker 1: subtraction because I don't think Ronado really fit in very
25:44
Speaker 1: well with the rest of that roster, and I was wrong.
25:48
Speaker 2: We still have to cover the r and.
25:49
Speaker 3: We always covered that one. That's fine.
25:51
Speaker 1: So but like this roster is shaping up to be
25:55
Speaker 1: much better than I think it people are expecting it
25:59
Speaker 1: to be. And because of that, there's gonna be a
26:02
Speaker 1: lot of saves on this team. So are you in
26:05
Speaker 1: on Ryan Stanik as the closer or are you all
26:08
Speaker 1: in on Riley O'Brien or how you play in this
26:10
Speaker 1: because it's gonna be a fascinating spot to find a
26:13
Speaker 1: closer too.
26:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think by my one A one b is
26:17
Speaker 3: Riley O'Brien is your one A. I think he's the
26:20
Speaker 3: leader in the clubhouse. Not by a lot, but I
26:21
Speaker 3: think he is. But I actually think the most talented
26:23
Speaker 3: pitcher is Matt Sponson. I really do think he's the
26:26
Speaker 3: guy that probably long term, is going to be the
26:29
Speaker 3: guy that they're looking to. I think Stanek is reliable,
26:33
Speaker 3: but I think they want to try these other guys
26:35
Speaker 3: in the high pressure situations, and so I think you're
26:38
Speaker 3: going to be seeing a mix of O'Brien's Sponson throughout
26:42
Speaker 3: the season trying to pickoff saves. And so I think
26:45
Speaker 3: you already get both them dirt cheap and drafts and
26:48
Speaker 3: there's nothing wrong with that. And like you said, there's
26:50
Speaker 3: gonna be a lot more close games than Saint Louis
26:52
Speaker 3: and people realize.
26:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're in the same frame of mind
26:58
Speaker 1: there that I mean, if anything, I might even be
27:01
Speaker 1: a little bit higher on standing just because like I
27:04
Speaker 1: can just see where they want to like get O'Brien
27:07
Speaker 1: and Sponsor into more higher leverage situations, and they just
27:10
Speaker 1: like really test them and just kind of makes Stank
27:13
Speaker 1: maybe the standing closer so that those guys don't have
27:16
Speaker 1: to worry about that as much. But I guess we'll
27:19
Speaker 1: see that, like certainly watch that bullpen as we get
27:22
Speaker 1: into the spring a little bit and the first couple
27:24
Speaker 1: weeks of the season, because it's gonna be dynamic, and
27:27
Speaker 1: one of those guys is gonna walk away.
27:28
Speaker 2: Of twenty to twenty five saves. I think.
27:31
Speaker 1: Okay, next signing where this one it doesn't seem like
27:35
Speaker 1: it's gonna be much, but it's gonna be a lot
27:36
Speaker 1: more impactful for fantasy than I think people are probably
27:39
Speaker 1: giving credence to on the surface, Victor Carrottinez signing with
27:44
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins, where it looks like, I mean, he's
27:47
Speaker 1: gonna play every day and have catcher eligibility. He's a
27:51
Speaker 1: switch hitter currently lined up as the everyday DH in Minnesota,
27:55
Speaker 1: but I think he's gonna catch a little bit. He's
27:57
Speaker 1: gonna play first base a little bit. This is a
27:59
Speaker 1: guy who in Houston last year played the second most
28:03
Speaker 1: games he's ever played, but put up the most plate
28:05
Speaker 1: appearances he ever did, and was certainly a great catcher too,
28:10
Speaker 1: even getting into like twelve teamers down the stretch, especially
28:14
Speaker 1: when he was in when they just had like injuries
28:17
Speaker 1: and he was playing every day. Ended up hitting two
28:20
Speaker 1: fifty nine three twenty four four h four, twelve homers
28:24
Speaker 1: in those one hundred and fourteen games. It's a one
28:25
Speaker 1: to four WRC plus. But I love Victor Krotene as
28:29
Speaker 1: a catcher too, because this is also a guy where
28:31
Speaker 1: he's been around the game so long. He's a very grindy,
28:36
Speaker 1: gritty batter, like he's just gonna put up great at
28:39
Speaker 1: bats and when he's at DH first base catcher, I
28:42
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of volume here for him in Minnesota.
28:45
Speaker 1: What do you think about Kroteni in twenty twenty six?
28:52
Speaker 3: Yes, sorry, sorry, I just I don't see it with Kartini.
28:56
Speaker 3: I think that you know, he's he's intriguing, interesting. Maybe
29:00
Speaker 3: he's a good personal catcher here and there, but like,
29:03
Speaker 3: I just don't think there's enough track record that things
29:06
Speaker 3: are really going to click. I think he's got a
29:07
Speaker 3: few too many holes in his swing to really truly
29:10
Speaker 3: be a full time guy. So yeah, this might be
29:12
Speaker 3: the best spot for to get a shot at it,
29:14
Speaker 3: But I just think that he's on the outside looking in.
29:17
Speaker 3: Maybe if you're in a two catcher league, he's got
29:18
Speaker 3: that eligibility. Want to see him at the back of that.
29:21
Speaker 3: It's worth maybe given a gander. I just there's just
29:24
Speaker 3: not enough there for me historically that I think he
29:26
Speaker 3: can do much more with a full run.
29:29
Speaker 1: Okay, next signing, we have this one just Brooke today.
29:34
Speaker 1: It is Angels have resigned Yon Mancatta, who should be
29:39
Speaker 1: their starting third baseman and currently roster resources, slotting him
29:42
Speaker 1: in as their clean up hitter in the four hole.
29:45
Speaker 1: This is another surprising I think find when you know
29:50
Speaker 1: Mankata came up a little bit late for the Angels,
29:53
Speaker 1: and especially like, well, actually it wasn't they came up late.
29:57
Speaker 2: He was just on the injury list a lot. Oh,
30:00
Speaker 2: but you.
30:01
Speaker 1: Take the season eighty four games, twelve homers, two thirty
30:06
Speaker 1: four average, But you can just double that and you're
30:08
Speaker 1: at like a twenty five homer, eighty run, seventy ish RBI,
30:13
Speaker 1: stolen base. That's a corner that plays. So is do
30:19
Speaker 1: you think that the Angels have found something Yon Moncatta here.
30:22
Speaker 1: He is only thirty, he'll be turning thirty one. He
30:26
Speaker 1: hit the ball pretty dang hard last year when he
30:28
Speaker 1: put the bat on, the ball swings pretty hard switch hitter,
30:32
Speaker 1: and I love the opportunity that he's got here. Obviously
30:35
Speaker 1: the health is always an issue, but in deeper leagues,
30:38
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a desperate ci, I'm not out
30:41
Speaker 1: on Yon Moncatta.
30:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the way you describe it there deeper
30:45
Speaker 3: leagues and you're desperate is probably about the way I
30:48
Speaker 3: feel about Yon Maccata, Like, I don't think is this
30:51
Speaker 3: the guy you want to rely on? Health has not
30:53
Speaker 3: ever been his go to. Definitely a streaky hitter, So yeah,
30:58
Speaker 3: he's kind of a guy. Maybe a single league and
31:01
Speaker 3: I'll only ale, or it'll only it's not gonna work well,
31:03
Speaker 3: but ale only league play here, or if you're kind
31:08
Speaker 3: of getting desperate in the waiver wire, I could see
31:10
Speaker 3: there's worse guys, but I'm not. I'm not targeting Mancata.
31:15
Speaker 3: He's more of a fallback plan if you know, things
31:17
Speaker 3: go awry and I need to kind of grab something
31:19
Speaker 3: late in the draft as a veteran presence, who's gonna
31:22
Speaker 3: play and kind of knock on some of those counting
31:25
Speaker 3: staffs and can get the RBIs up, gonna hit fifteen
31:27
Speaker 3: twenty homers. Like there's value there, but it's not something
31:30
Speaker 3: that I'm like, I'm searching for. If that makes sense.
31:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's all very fair. All right, next
31:36
Speaker 1: transaction we have, we're gonna start getting to the trades now,
31:39
Speaker 1: so we will get to that Nolan r and A trade,
31:41
Speaker 1: but we've got some bigger ones first.
31:43
Speaker 2: We're gonna stay in.
31:45
Speaker 1: New York for two for the first two because first
31:48
Speaker 1: one actually broke while we were recording Live with Chris
31:51
Speaker 1: Towers and going through the inn Aleast preview ironically, when
31:55
Speaker 1: we were actually talking about the Mets. They have gone
31:59
Speaker 1: and trade for Freddy Peralta, adding another piece to that
32:03
Speaker 1: rotation that I think they desperately needed to round out
32:06
Speaker 1: this off season to add to Boba Schett, and in exchange,
32:11
Speaker 1: they're sending to Milwaukee Jet Williams and Brandon Sprout.
32:14
Speaker 2: Let me check it roster resources.
32:16
Speaker 1: See, I'm guessing that they'll probably put Jet Williams in
32:20
Speaker 1: Triple A to start the season, but Brandon Sprote should
32:23
Speaker 1: slot into the back end of that rotation.
32:25
Speaker 2: I think actually.
32:28
Speaker 1: Roster resource does not have Brandon Sprot in the rotation,
32:30
Speaker 1: but he only has to overcome.
32:33
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, it's solid rotation.
32:35
Speaker 1: Never mind it's Bradon Wood, have the miz Quinn, Priester,
32:40
Speaker 1: Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, so it's gonna be tough for
32:43
Speaker 1: Sprot to crack. They do have Jet Williams starting off
32:48
Speaker 1: at triple A it looks like, but Jet Williams does
32:51
Speaker 1: not have much in front of him, I would say
32:53
Speaker 1: in terms of like Joey Ortiz has been up and
32:56
Speaker 1: down at shortstop, Jake Bowers is currently the starting laffielder
32:59
Speaker 1: for the Milwaukee Brewers and a platoon with Blake Perkins.
33:03
Speaker 1: You've also got Caleb Durban at third base who did
33:06
Speaker 1: come on late at the end of the season. But
33:08
Speaker 1: there's certainly pathway for Jet Williams to break a camp
33:12
Speaker 1: with the Brewers here and create the short king duo
33:17
Speaker 1: with Caleb Durban there. So what are your takes here?
33:22
Speaker 1: Do you like the landing spot here for Freddy Peralta
33:24
Speaker 1: in New York? And what do you think about Brandon
33:27
Speaker 1: Sprote and Jet Williams going to Milwaukee? Tobias Myers is
33:31
Speaker 1: also involved, but I'm skipping him.
33:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Peralta, I don't think there's a big
33:36
Speaker 3: change in his value one way or the other here.
33:38
Speaker 3: I think he's maybe a bigger stage, But overall, I'd
33:41
Speaker 3: say it's kind of a neutral for him, you know,
33:44
Speaker 3: it's it does, if anything, kind of hurt some of
33:47
Speaker 3: the younger arms there for future opportunities. But we'll kind
33:50
Speaker 3: of I don't want to ruin the preview that we
33:53
Speaker 3: get into with the Mets later, so I'll leave it
33:55
Speaker 3: at that. But I do think what's actually the most
33:59
Speaker 3: interesting to me is not necessarily any of the guys
34:02
Speaker 3: that are in here. I mean, I do think Jet
34:03
Speaker 3: Williams has a better path to playing time on this
34:06
Speaker 3: team because the Brewers are willing to make those moves.
34:08
Speaker 3: I think Brandon sprote there's a lot of value there.
34:10
Speaker 3: I think he is the guy that there probably gets
34:13
Speaker 3: a look this year. I think this is big news
34:15
Speaker 3: for Logan Henderson because he was a guy that was
34:18
Speaker 3: kind of like on the outside looking in, you were
34:19
Speaker 3: hoping he was gonna make a move in camp and
34:21
Speaker 3: really do something. He looked phenomenal last year when he
34:24
Speaker 3: was in the big leagues, and he just kind of
34:26
Speaker 3: couldn't stay there then got injured, and this should lock
34:30
Speaker 3: him into the rotation for certain I think he's better
34:33
Speaker 3: than Quinn Priescher. I think he's better than Chad Patrick.
34:35
Speaker 3: I think he's their number three. He just from a
34:38
Speaker 3: seniority perspective contract that wasn't gonna get that benefit. So
34:41
Speaker 3: I think this opens up things for Logan Henderson, so
34:43
Speaker 3: I think he's kind of sneaky value now. But I
34:46
Speaker 3: also think it's an up arrow for Sprote and Williams
34:49
Speaker 3: because I think they have a clear path, sooner path
34:52
Speaker 3: to playing time and a team that just loves those
34:55
Speaker 3: kind of guys, loves to let those guys develop and
34:58
Speaker 3: develops pitchers. Pretty mush turned.
34:59
Speaker 2: Well Yeah, yeah, I think that's a good callt Well.
35:02
Speaker 1: The Mets also made another trade before they acquired Freddy
35:06
Speaker 1: Pelton tonight, and that was picking up Luise Robert Junior
35:09
Speaker 1: from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Louise Anhelacunya
35:13
Speaker 1: and Truman Pauly. Acunya should be the starting center fielder
35:18
Speaker 1: for the White Sox currently per roster resource Well kind
35:21
Speaker 1: of see. I mean, I don't know if he necessarily
35:24
Speaker 1: has the chops, but at the end of the day,
35:27
Speaker 1: the White Sox Wisto don't really care that They'll roll
35:30
Speaker 1: Acunya out there and see what he can do in
35:32
Speaker 1: center field. Certainly big up arrow for his value, but
35:36
Speaker 1: I think you're looking at a pretty light hitter with
35:39
Speaker 1: a last oleen basis. Louise Robert here is certainly the
35:42
Speaker 1: more intriguing piece going back to the Mets, where looks
35:46
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be a big lineup position downgrade is
35:49
Speaker 1: he's probably gonna hit eighth in that lineup according to
35:52
Speaker 1: roster resource, much tougher ballpark, and then you just kind
35:56
Speaker 1: of have the Louise Robert junior of it all in
35:59
Speaker 1: terms of trying to stay on the field, trying to
36:01
Speaker 1: actually make contact when he swings, and just be some
36:06
Speaker 1: sort of steady source of production.
36:09
Speaker 2: So I will spoil the last preview a little.
36:13
Speaker 1: Bit that Robert was my cell from the Mets, because
36:17
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I trust the profile and
36:20
Speaker 1: it's an eighty eight WSG plus for two straight years
36:23
Speaker 1: like that kind of cements you a little bit.
36:25
Speaker 2: As you are what you are.
36:27
Speaker 1: You have the injury factor, you have the total inability
36:31
Speaker 1: to know where the strike zone is at times that
36:33
Speaker 1: Robert goes through. I mean, he's an elite center fielder.
36:37
Speaker 1: So big pick up for the Mets here going forward
36:39
Speaker 1: because that is where they struggled. But what do you
36:42
Speaker 1: think about Luis Robert Jr? And are you maybe even
36:46
Speaker 1: into Acunya more than I was letting on there.
36:49
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I'm right there with you on
36:50
Speaker 3: both those guys. I mean, first of all, I'll look
36:52
Speaker 3: at this and try to understand what the Mets really
36:54
Speaker 3: were trying to do. Maybe it really is shore up
36:57
Speaker 3: that defense. But I mean they're they assumed all of
37:00
Speaker 3: that contract and they're paying one hundred and ten percent
37:02
Speaker 3: of the tax. They're they're in forty six million dollars
37:05
Speaker 3: for this one season for Lewis Robert Junior here, which
37:08
Speaker 3: I'm like, I don't don't know about that one. And
37:12
Speaker 3: I just there's too much. You know, there's a ton
37:14
Speaker 3: of talent here, and if you can get him cheap enough,
37:18
Speaker 3: yeah that draft him, go for it. I just you're
37:21
Speaker 3: not gonna get him cheap enough. People are still looking
37:23
Speaker 3: and dreaming on this guy, and you're just gonna be
37:26
Speaker 3: disappointed when he's on the field half the time when
37:28
Speaker 3: he's striking out and going through these these lolls, it's
37:30
Speaker 3: just not gonna be good. So I'm out on Louis Robert.
37:33
Speaker 3: I don't really care the price at this point. I mean, yeah,
37:36
Speaker 3: I'll take the guy that can go twenty forty for
37:39
Speaker 3: you know, dependings on the dollar. Sure, he's not a
37:42
Speaker 3: bad bench bat for my fantasy team, but for the
37:45
Speaker 3: cost that he's gonna have, it's just it's just not
37:47
Speaker 3: worth it. And to your point, like, I don't know
37:50
Speaker 3: that I really see him batting eighty of that lineup,
37:52
Speaker 3: but he's not gonna be in the top half.
37:55
Speaker 1: It just isn't gonna be no, I mean it's it's
37:59
Speaker 1: gonna take a level of like breakout and coaching I
38:02
Speaker 1: think to get Robert into the top half.
38:04
Speaker 2: But I just don't know if it's.
38:05
Speaker 1: There, like it's been, he's so far gone from the
38:10
Speaker 1: coaching with the White Sox.
38:11
Speaker 2: But we'll see.
38:12
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe they'll turn it around with the Mets,
38:14
Speaker 1: but I think they also just know that, Hey, we
38:17
Speaker 1: just locked in an elite Gold Gloves centerfielder for twenty
38:21
Speaker 1: twenty six, where we had trouble putting a center fielder
38:24
Speaker 1: on the field last year. Big big up arrow for
38:28
Speaker 1: them overall, and honestly for the Mets pitchers too, the
38:31
Speaker 1: Mets pitching staff. When you have somebody like Luise Robert
38:34
Speaker 1: out there who can go and get anything in the
38:36
Speaker 1: outfield once again, when he's healthy and the hamstrings are working,
38:41
Speaker 1: that it's a big up arrow for them as well. Okay,
38:45
Speaker 1: so let's get to that Nolan Aronado trade. Now, that's
38:47
Speaker 1: the next one on our list. He was dealt to
38:50
Speaker 1: Arizona in exchange for Jack Martinez, who was an eighth
38:53
Speaker 1: round pick in twenty twenty five. It's pretty much just
38:56
Speaker 1: a straight salary dump for the Cardinals as they are
39:00
Speaker 1: are sending Arnauto over and the last two years of
39:05
Speaker 1: the deal, the Diamondbacks only have to pay eleven million
39:08
Speaker 1: dollars on that as the Cardinals are picking up the
39:11
Speaker 1: rest gonna slot in.
39:12
Speaker 3: And be because the Rockies are putting someone there as well.
39:15
Speaker 2: Forgot about the Rockies.
39:16
Speaker 1: Yes, the Rockies are still paying, so that'll be great
39:18
Speaker 1: that they're paying a division rival to have Arnauto on
39:23
Speaker 1: the the Diamond for them, I mean Arnauto. It's a
39:28
Speaker 1: fascinating kind of set up. As I'm also struggling a
39:32
Speaker 1: little bit with fangrass right now. That's like I think
39:34
Speaker 1: roster resources all updating in the background as people are
39:37
Speaker 1: flooding fan grass after this ready pearl to trade, and
39:41
Speaker 1: so hopefully I can get this pages up as we're
39:43
Speaker 1: talking through these next few transactions. But it was a
39:47
Speaker 1: brutal season. And I know you watch a lot of
39:49
Speaker 1: Cardinals baseball. I watch a lot of Cardinals baseball. Nolan
39:53
Speaker 1: Arna looked absolutely cooked last year at the plate where
39:57
Speaker 1: I know traditionally he hasn't been a guy who swings
40:00
Speaker 1: the bat really hard, doesn't hit the ball super hard,
40:03
Speaker 1: but still finds ways to get the right launch angles
40:06
Speaker 1: and attack pitches when he can. But last year it
40:09
Speaker 1: just really seemed like he was almost getting the bat
40:13
Speaker 1: knocked out of his hand. It's not like he didn't
40:15
Speaker 1: have lineup protection around him, like they had a decent
40:18
Speaker 1: middle of the lineup in Saint Louis for a good
40:20
Speaker 1: portion of the season. But Arnotto, I think it's just
40:25
Speaker 1: a glove only third basement at this point and a
40:28
Speaker 1: desperate corner infield option in the same bin as like
40:33
Speaker 1: Jon Moncatta for me going forward that I just don't
40:36
Speaker 1: see the power coming back. I don't count on anything
40:39
Speaker 1: more than like a two fifty average. He's slow, so
40:42
Speaker 1: you're not gonna get a lot of extra base hits,
40:45
Speaker 1: I think. And you just look at the spray chart
40:47
Speaker 1: from Nolan Ornato last year. All the homers are like
40:51
Speaker 1: right down the line, So he's really kind of pushing
40:54
Speaker 1: towards the edges into being just like a glove only
40:58
Speaker 1: third baseman. Am I being too harsh?
41:03
Speaker 3: I don't think you are. And it's really really hard
41:05
Speaker 3: to watch because this is a guy that was on
41:08
Speaker 3: a Hall of Fame trajectory for his career and I'm
41:11
Speaker 3: not ruling that fully out because his peak for almost
41:15
Speaker 3: ten years was an amazing peak, and so you can
41:18
Speaker 3: look at that, but you know, he's really dropped off
41:21
Speaker 3: from a talent perspective, and you can see it. And
41:24
Speaker 3: what's being paid, Like the Diamondbacks essentially picked him up
41:27
Speaker 3: for nothing for like like I said, it's basically paying
41:30
Speaker 3: like six million bucks to be their third baseman. From
41:33
Speaker 3: a defense perspective, I'm bloom. You should have called David Stearns.
41:37
Speaker 3: If they're paying forty five million or whatever it is
41:39
Speaker 3: for Louis Robert, you could have got a little more right,
41:42
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think you have to say Ernado's not draftable,
41:46
Speaker 3: not worth spending your time on at this point.
41:49
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's get into our next trade, and
41:51
Speaker 1: it is a three team trade here, as we had
41:54
Speaker 1: the Rays, the Angels, and the Reds linking up to
41:59
Speaker 1: swap Josh Lowe going to Tampa Bay or going from
42:03
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay to La Gavin Lux going from Cincinnati to
42:10
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay along with Chris Clark, a minor league pictcher
42:15
Speaker 1: going from the Reds to Tampa Bay. And then the
42:18
Speaker 1: Reds are getting left handed reliever Brock Burke. So of
42:22
Speaker 1: the two fantasy options here, I mean Josh low and
42:25
Speaker 1: Gavin Lux are probably the ones they're going to have
42:28
Speaker 1: the biggest impact. Gavin Lux should walk in and replace
42:31
Speaker 1: Brandon Lau at second base for the Tampa Bay Rays
42:34
Speaker 1: as their everyday second basement. But also you want to
42:39
Speaker 1: talk about guys who like I think it's very telling
42:42
Speaker 1: where like the Dodgers got off of the Gavin Lux
42:46
Speaker 1: train so early because I think they saw the batspeed data.
42:50
Speaker 1: And we get into this a little bit in our
42:52
Speaker 1: in a least review, and I think I'm going to
42:54
Speaker 1: keep harping it as we get into preview season. But
42:57
Speaker 1: at f PAZ, you know, Sarah's put together a nice
43:00
Speaker 1: presentation where he showed like bat speed is probably the
43:05
Speaker 1: best leading indicator that you can find in terms of
43:07
Speaker 1: like being able to determine who can actually hit the
43:10
Speaker 1: ball hard and who can like create some of the
43:12
Speaker 1: best barrel rates and so on and so forth. Gavin
43:15
Speaker 1: Lux does not rate well and by that metric when
43:19
Speaker 1: you look at his bat speed, and I think it
43:21
Speaker 1: kind of explains a lot of the Gavin Lux experience.
43:23
Speaker 1: So I'm not expecting much of him in Tampa. Josh
43:27
Speaker 1: Lowe also very flawed player here because king of the
43:30
Speaker 1: strained oblique and you can see it every time he
43:33
Speaker 1: swings that I'm just waiting for those obliques to rip.
43:36
Speaker 1: He's so huge and he swings so hard. But when
43:39
Speaker 1: he's on the field, it's an immense talent. It's a
43:41
Speaker 1: great profile. Are you doing anything here with Low and
43:45
Speaker 1: Lux going forward? Because not only is low like who
43:49
Speaker 1: he is, but he's landing in with an organization that
43:51
Speaker 1: is terrible at injury recovery, and so either of these
43:56
Speaker 1: dudes on your radar, between Low and Lux, I mean.
43:59
Speaker 3: If I have to take. It's gonna be low just
44:01
Speaker 3: because I think there's a little bit more upside and
44:04
Speaker 3: Lewis Robert eskness to it. Low average counting stats, some
44:08
Speaker 3: talent there, but I don't love the landing spot. I
44:12
Speaker 3: think there's too much injury risk, so like he's a
44:14
Speaker 3: flyer at best late in drafts and lux. I'm just
44:18
Speaker 3: I'm not even spend the time like we've we've we've
44:20
Speaker 3: hyped him up a few times, change the scenery. Things
44:23
Speaker 3: are gonna need to happen. But to your point, like
44:25
Speaker 3: he just doesn't swing the bat hard enough, he doesn't
44:27
Speaker 3: make good enough throw enough contact. He couldn't make it
44:29
Speaker 3: happen in Cincinnati. It's not gonna change, uh going anywhere
44:33
Speaker 3: else if you can't make it happen there. From a
44:35
Speaker 3: powers perspective, so little intrigued low, But I just I'm
44:40
Speaker 3: pretty much out on anybody playing for the Angels at
44:42
Speaker 3: this point in time.
44:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it seems like it.
44:45
Speaker 1: Okay, next trade we have is between the Marlins and
44:48
Speaker 1: the Yankees. As I mean, this was really like the
44:51
Speaker 1: first move the Yankees made this offseason before they came
44:54
Speaker 1: back and signed Bellingery. Just the other day, Ryan weather
44:58
Speaker 1: Is going from the Marlins to the Yankee in exchange
45:00
Speaker 1: for four prospects Dylan Lewis, Brendan Jones, Dylan Jassojan Matthias.
45:07
Speaker 1: I think all those guys are fodder for the most part.
45:10
Speaker 1: I know our friends over at Dynasty Baseball Pickups have
45:14
Speaker 1: been into Dylan Lewis and Brendan Jones, but as like
45:18
Speaker 1: guys who are like top four hundred Dynasty sort of
45:23
Speaker 1: sorts that have risen maybe a little bit, or it
45:26
Speaker 1: could be decent investments. So I will keep an eye
45:28
Speaker 1: on Dylan Lewis and Brendan Jones with Miami, but otherwise
45:32
Speaker 1: I don't know if Miami's really looking for anything other
45:35
Speaker 1: than just trying to find some bats to fill their
45:38
Speaker 1: system in exchange for Weathers. Here, Weather's going to the
45:42
Speaker 1: Yankees and coming off of the season where he only
45:45
Speaker 1: threw thirty eight and a third innings. But I mean
45:48
Speaker 1: they were solid. They've always been solid when he's been
45:50
Speaker 1: on the mound. But being on the mound has been
45:53
Speaker 1: the twenty.
45:54
Speaker 2: Six year old's biggest issue. I love him, but I
45:58
Speaker 2: can't like the injury.
46:01
Speaker 1: Risk and investment is so hard with Ryan Weathers. I
46:04
Speaker 1: have him on my autodue team, and I'm keeping him
46:07
Speaker 1: going in in next year because like when he's on
46:09
Speaker 1: the mound, he's absolutely fantastic. You're looking a guy who
46:12
Speaker 1: can be like mid three cra with a strikeout per
46:16
Speaker 1: an inning with upside, I think, because like the stuff
46:20
Speaker 1: flashes fantastically every once in a while and in between
46:23
Speaker 1: the injuries. But what do you think Ryan Weathers can
46:27
Speaker 1: be for the Yankees? Can he be a dependable fantasy piece?
46:30
Speaker 1: Can we count on him for getting up to one
46:33
Speaker 1: hundred hundred and twenty innings this season?
46:36
Speaker 3: I don't think you can. I think you're your assessment
46:39
Speaker 3: spot on, Like lots of talent, really can do some
46:42
Speaker 3: some cool things, but he just can't stay healthy. Like
46:47
Speaker 3: this is a guy that's taken it for the bull
46:49
Speaker 3: like this is this is like the Mason Miller type
46:51
Speaker 3: of discussion. A guy that's got crazy good stuff, but
46:55
Speaker 3: we can't stay healthy enough to start. Yeah, you're gonna
46:57
Speaker 3: move him to the bullpen and he's gonna be n
47:00
Speaker 3: and so like maybe there's a path here for Ryan Weathers.
47:03
Speaker 3: I just don't think you can invest in them. I
47:05
Speaker 3: don't think you can trust him unless you really want
47:07
Speaker 3: to make that long term play. Like I said, your point,
47:10
Speaker 3: like a dynasty play is actually really interesting here because
47:12
Speaker 3: I think once he settles into a spot and they
47:14
Speaker 3: get comfortable with him being a potential closer, I actually
47:18
Speaker 3: really like Ryan Weathers. I think the biggest news here
47:21
Speaker 3: is that they keep opening up spots to start in
47:24
Speaker 3: Miami for Robbie Stelling and Thomas White, Like that's the
47:28
Speaker 3: bigger news of anything, and that means the Marlins are
47:32
Speaker 3: not gonna be terrible this year. They're actually be pretty
47:34
Speaker 3: pretty exciting, and they're sending this guy off as a
47:37
Speaker 3: ton of talent because they've got guys they're gonna be
47:39
Speaker 3: healthier and have a ton of talent coming through as well.
47:42
Speaker 3: So I'm much more interested in give me some Robbi
47:45
Speaker 3: Stelly or Thomas White.
47:46
Speaker 2: Yeah.
47:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair and I think I mean
47:49
Speaker 1: you can kind of see in the in the trade
47:51
Speaker 1: price to what the Marlins think of the medical history
47:54
Speaker 1: on Weathers, and so I think it's something to keep
47:56
Speaker 1: an eye on, like if you can get to I mean,
47:59
Speaker 1: that's the only thing is I don't know if the
48:00
Speaker 1: Yankees are going to push him much beyond one hundred innings,
48:03
Speaker 1: just given the injury history. But if he does get there,
48:06
Speaker 1: certainly somebody in a keeper dynasty situation where if the
48:10
Speaker 1: Yankees find a pathway to health and can set him
48:13
Speaker 1: up for one hundred and fifty innings in twenty twenty seven,
48:17
Speaker 1: I think that Ryan Weathers could really take off. Okay,
48:22
Speaker 1: last trade that we have, we're going back to my
48:24
Speaker 1: favorite place in baseball, Colorado. And they made another move
48:30
Speaker 1: this past week where this is another guy I think
48:33
Speaker 1: I'm going to be adding on lots of fantasy rosters
48:36
Speaker 1: as a reserve ish pick. I will prompt that that, like,
48:39
Speaker 1: I'm not investing any real money in Jake McCarthy who
48:43
Speaker 1: came over in a trade with Arizona for Josh Grows,
48:48
Speaker 1: and mostly because it looks like McCarthy should have another
48:53
Speaker 1: day roll. Currently roster resource has him in a platoon situation.
48:56
Speaker 1: But like, I don't see how the Rockies don't just
49:00
Speaker 1: let Jake McCarthy play every day and try to figure
49:03
Speaker 1: it out against lefties, considering what they else they have
49:06
Speaker 1: going on around him. And this is another guy who
49:10
Speaker 1: kind of like Willie Castro, decent amount of contact, decent
49:12
Speaker 1: amount of speed. You're putting them in coors Field. I'm
49:15
Speaker 1: at least streaming him in daily leagues as much as
49:19
Speaker 1: I can when he's in Colorado. Are you there with
49:22
Speaker 1: me on the cheapness of Jake McCarthy trying to find
49:25
Speaker 1: some cheap average install and bases.
49:28
Speaker 3: I think so. Like I look at that lineup and
49:32
Speaker 3: besides our Willie cast discussion, and he probably Ezekiel Tovar,
49:37
Speaker 3: he's probably the most interesting bat in that lineup. Like
49:39
Speaker 3: I'm scared of Jordan Beck, Mickey Moniac, Like I'm just
49:43
Speaker 3: not sure what to make of him. A Hunter Goodman,
49:45
Speaker 3: he's a preview here. He's a cell of sell hard
49:49
Speaker 3: for me, and so there's there's not a lot to
49:53
Speaker 3: like here. But I think McCarthy gets a run, and
49:55
Speaker 3: like he's always flashed these like these talents filled weeks,
50:00
Speaker 3: and if he could just lean into that, get a
50:03
Speaker 3: full run, which he just hasn't hadn't got with the Diamondbacks,
50:06
Speaker 3: I think there's there's some outside chance that he's like
50:10
Speaker 3: a fourth or fifth outfielder for folks this year.
50:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think that's all fair.
50:14
Speaker 1: I Mean, the counting stats are gonna be tough, and
50:16
Speaker 1: the home runs are gonna be down, but like the
50:19
Speaker 1: batting average boon, especially at home. I think it's gonna
50:21
Speaker 1: be very, very huge considering his price, So somebody keep
50:26
Speaker 1: an eye on there. Jack McCarthy, all right, we have
50:29
Speaker 1: our first injury of the season to talk about, as
50:32
Speaker 1: Haase and Kim starting shortstop for the Atlanta Braves and
50:35
Speaker 1: New Well. I guess they acquired him last year, but
50:38
Speaker 1: they re upped him this year going into twenty twenty six,
50:42
Speaker 1: down for four or five months as we're speaking here
50:45
Speaker 1: in January, so they should knock him out for going
50:49
Speaker 1: into roughly, I'm trying to do math late.
50:55
Speaker 3: Right, we're talking July here, We're talking June July.
50:58
Speaker 1: Yes, as he slipped on some ice when he was
51:02
Speaker 1: at home in Korea and tore attendon in his middle finger,
51:08
Speaker 1: required surgery. That's what's creating the long timeline. This is
51:12
Speaker 1: a guy who I think probably before this injury you
51:16
Speaker 1: and I might have considered for buys on our nlast
51:19
Speaker 1: preview for Ki. Yeah, and I mean just he was
51:24
Speaker 1: recovering from that shoulder injury that really kind of plagued
51:27
Speaker 1: him going into last year, and he was starting to
51:30
Speaker 1: show signs of life towards the end of twenty twenty five,
51:33
Speaker 1: on top of finding a great landing spot in Atlanta
51:37
Speaker 1: in the middle of that great lineup. Now it's all
51:40
Speaker 1: for not because I'm totally out on Hassan Kim now.
51:44
Speaker 1: Because this is the type of injury where like anything
51:47
Speaker 1: with the hands and the wrists for a hitter, and
51:50
Speaker 1: it happens early in the season, I'm out. There's I'm
51:53
Speaker 1: just totally out because it SAPs everything for the entire year.
51:56
Speaker 3: It's a repeat. It is, yeah, last year. That's I'm
51:59
Speaker 3: so unfortunate because I was so looking forward to getting
52:01
Speaker 3: some shares of them this year cheap, and he was
52:03
Speaker 3: gonna be very, very valuable. This was an absolute buye
52:06
Speaker 3: for me on the Braves, and I'm gone, it's not
52:09
Speaker 3: worth it now.
52:10
Speaker 1: Well, so in his stead, the Braves are probably going
52:15
Speaker 1: to roll out Marisio du Bone at shortstop there. They
52:19
Speaker 1: also signed Horage Mateo. Any interest there because like I said,
52:23
Speaker 1: this is a great lineup in Atlanta, and I mean
52:26
Speaker 1: Nick Allen was a nothing for them last year. But
52:29
Speaker 1: having some intrigue here in shortstop between. I like Debond
52:34
Speaker 1: just because he I think it qualifies everywhere but Catcher.
52:38
Speaker 1: He should have first, second, third, he'll pick up short
52:41
Speaker 1: obviously and outfield eligibility, So roster salve. Jorge Mateo has
52:47
Speaker 1: been a speed demon in the past, So any really
52:51
Speaker 1: late darts that you might be throwing their way, maybe
52:55
Speaker 1: Mateo if we're seeing that he's gonna get the start,
52:57
Speaker 1: Like give me twenty twenty two version of Mateo where
53:01
Speaker 1: we get like ten homers and thirty forty stolen bases
53:04
Speaker 1: with a dreadful average, and he could rack up some
53:07
Speaker 1: runs down at the bottom that lineup potentially, But as
53:10
Speaker 1: we've seen Michael Harris prove that doesn't alwase work of
53:14
Speaker 1: that lineup.
53:15
Speaker 3: Uh, not foreshadowing in it at all. But yeah, I
53:19
Speaker 3: have to say I'm generally out on all of them.
53:22
Speaker 3: Maybe I'll give Mateo a quick watch, but I yeah,
53:25
Speaker 3: that's a stretch.
53:27
Speaker 2: Okay, I think that's fair. Okay.
53:29
Speaker 1: We've got a couple of other baseball news, and the
53:32
Speaker 1: first one is in Kansas City. The Royalists are pulling
53:37
Speaker 1: in the fences at Kaufman Stadium just to make it
53:40
Speaker 1: a little less cavernous and also create some more seatings
53:45
Speaker 1: so that they can squeeze a few more rows in
53:47
Speaker 1: there in left and right field. So what they're doing
53:50
Speaker 1: is they're bringing in left and right field. Center field's
53:53
Speaker 1: actually staying the same. So the other reason that they've
53:58
Speaker 1: been saying that they're doing it is to make it
53:59
Speaker 1: more like the other fields, where it just allows them
54:02
Speaker 1: to be more dynamic in terms of what acquisitions they
54:06
Speaker 1: can make that they're not stuck on players that can
54:08
Speaker 1: only play in the cavernous Kaufman Stadium, which you might
54:13
Speaker 1: not think of it this way, but it technically is
54:15
Speaker 1: a hitters park and has played as a hitters park
54:17
Speaker 1: just because it's so huge that it's really good for singles, doubles, triples,
54:24
Speaker 1: The alleys were always really deep, it was just a
54:27
Speaker 1: total bummer for home runs.
54:29
Speaker 2: So it's played as a hitters park.
54:31
Speaker 1: Slash like Kin say, is hot. Kin Sity plays real
54:35
Speaker 1: hot during the summer, which I think has been a
54:37
Speaker 1: factor over the past few years too, and so this
54:39
Speaker 1: should make it even more of a hitters park down
54:42
Speaker 1: the line, because you're going to be seeing more homer
54:45
Speaker 1: sneak out. It looks like people have already been starting
54:49
Speaker 1: to project this. I think it maybe added like one
54:52
Speaker 1: homer per a person, like across the border line for
54:56
Speaker 1: the Royals when you're looking at projections and also kind
54:59
Speaker 1: of lining it up for like the stat cast of
55:02
Speaker 1: like you know, if they had hit these homers out
55:04
Speaker 1: last year, or you know, hit their balls last year,
55:09
Speaker 1: and then comparing it to the new dimensions. So you know,
55:12
Speaker 1: maybe you're picking up a homer or two here or there,
55:15
Speaker 1: But do you think it could be more than that
55:17
Speaker 1: or any other significant changes you're making for this Kaufman
55:19
Speaker 1: Stadium rework.
55:21
Speaker 3: I think it could be a little bit more than that,
55:23
Speaker 3: especially for guys like Bobby Wit or somebody like that
55:25
Speaker 3: who who are more line drive power. Maybe Carter Jensen
55:29
Speaker 3: might get a little bit of this as well that
55:31
Speaker 3: tend to be more of a doubles hitters, and you know,
55:36
Speaker 3: they're just kind of sneaking them out here and there.
55:37
Speaker 3: Their homers aren't just massive blasts. I think it could
55:40
Speaker 3: do a little bit more. And also I think from
55:41
Speaker 3: the mental aspect, like you feel that like, hey, this
55:44
Speaker 3: is this is doable, and so I think it's a
55:47
Speaker 3: little bit more than that. I'm not gonna, you know,
55:49
Speaker 3: terribly change the way I'm looking at players, but it's
55:52
Speaker 3: like in the back of my mind as I'm ranking guys,
55:54
Speaker 3: and it's Yeah, it's not going to change Bobby Wits
55:57
Speaker 3: ranking or anything like that, but it'll be fun to.
56:01
Speaker 1: All right, Well, the last bit of real baseball news
56:05
Speaker 1: we have is actually, I mean, maybe we really buried
56:07
Speaker 1: the lead here though, but we have two new Hall
56:10
Speaker 1: of Famers that were announced this week and elected, between
56:14
Speaker 1: Carlos Beltron and Andrew Jones. So we will be creating
56:17
Speaker 1: one of the wackiest Hall of Fame classes between Beltron,
56:22
Speaker 1: Jones and Jeff Kent going in this summer compared to
56:25
Speaker 1: just like some of the Titans that have been on
56:28
Speaker 1: the ballot and have not been making it in the
56:30
Speaker 1: past three years. On top of like, which is like
56:33
Speaker 1: totally bothers me about Beltron and Andrew Jones getting in one,
56:38
Speaker 1: center fields is very underrepresented in the Hall of Fame.
56:41
Speaker 1: I think they're the eighth and ninth center fielders like
56:45
Speaker 1: main center fielders to get in, and it's been a
56:47
Speaker 1: while since we've put in many center fielders, I mean
56:50
Speaker 1: Derris Griffy. But then like it, it stretches out. It's
56:55
Speaker 1: a total disservice to Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton, who
56:58
Speaker 1: were both better than Beltron and Andrew Jones. In my mind,
57:02
Speaker 1: Beltron maybe has an argument to say that he's better,
57:06
Speaker 1: but not Andrew Jones, especially, who like his career is
57:09
Speaker 1: over by thirty. And there's just also like a vibe
57:13
Speaker 1: of like watching Andrew Jones compared to Edmunds in Lockton,
57:16
Speaker 1: and like Jones did not feel like a Hall of
57:19
Speaker 1: Fame or in the moment. On top of like, he
57:22
Speaker 1: also has a domestic violence charge guilty charge on his record,
57:27
Speaker 1: which the voters were able to overcome. For Beltron, he
57:31
Speaker 1: didn't come without his own controversy. He was pretty much
57:34
Speaker 1: the center of the Astros trash banging scheme that happened.
57:41
Speaker 1: He was the one that kind of invented all of
57:43
Speaker 1: it and orchestrated it when he was a veteran on
57:45
Speaker 1: that championship roster. So certainly from an on field perspective,
57:50
Speaker 1: Beltron far and away more than qualified for the Hall
57:54
Speaker 1: of Fame in my mind, and so.
57:57
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a fascinating class.
57:59
Speaker 1: What do you think here about Beltron and Jones getting
58:01
Speaker 1: into the Hall of Fame?
58:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're You're right, like Beltron, Yeah, it
58:05
Speaker 3: makes a lot of sense. Jones, I feel like there's
58:08
Speaker 3: a lot of arguments he had a really strong peak.
58:10
Speaker 3: He was a really dynamic player, you know, amazing center fielder.
58:15
Speaker 3: But I think you make a good point there, Like
58:17
Speaker 3: I I think Jones deserved to get in more than
58:19
Speaker 3: like a guy's like Edmunds. I don't think I like
58:22
Speaker 3: Edmunds or Loten should have fallen off the ballot to
58:26
Speaker 3: this point, because like if you look at their career,
58:28
Speaker 3: their career numbers, the dynamic approach to the game, like
58:34
Speaker 3: they made similar impacts. Again, I'll give Jones a nod.
58:38
Speaker 3: I'm okay with that. I don't think the chasm is
58:41
Speaker 3: is kind of what is portrayed there, and I think
58:43
Speaker 3: that's that's unfortunate for some of those guys. I wish
58:46
Speaker 3: a few of those guys would get a few more
58:47
Speaker 3: runs on the ballot. They're never they were gonna make it,
58:50
Speaker 3: and Jim Edmonds wasn't gonna be in the Hall of
58:51
Speaker 3: Fame things like that. But I I do think it's
58:55
Speaker 3: not the spread that and there's a little bit of
59:01
Speaker 3: like just remember the impact that Jones made of the
59:05
Speaker 3: game at such a young age, and how exciting and
59:07
Speaker 3: dynamic you was versus the guys like an Edmunds was
59:11
Speaker 3: morvel plotter across the game, just doing great things for
59:14
Speaker 3: a long time. So you know, it's that argument of
59:16
Speaker 3: the peak versus the longevity. But either way, I'm fine
59:19
Speaker 3: with both these guys being Then to your point, this
59:21
Speaker 3: is a really interesting class for many different reasons. So
59:24
Speaker 3: it'll be fun to watch those Hall of Fame speeches
59:26
Speaker 3: for sure.
59:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be an interesting weekend in Cooperstown too, for
59:30
Speaker 1: like the people going, because it's just like, as a
59:33
Speaker 1: it's a goofy class, I will give it that, And
59:35
Speaker 1: also it feels like it's the first class where it's
59:39
Speaker 1: like also just like it's all like dudes that were
59:43
Speaker 1: right in the prime of us watching baseball. Like even
59:46
Speaker 1: more like all these dudes were in their primes when
59:49
Speaker 1: we could witness it and remember it. So it's a
59:52
Speaker 1: it's kind of strange thing that happened, speaking of passage
59:57
Speaker 1: of time happening in real life constantly. So that's going
1:00:01
Speaker 1: to wrap us up with the real baseball news. But
1:00:03
Speaker 1: we've got plenty of baseball card news because it is
1:00:05
Speaker 1: the third week of January and that is when the
1:00:09
Speaker 1: newest sets for the year really start hitting the newswires.
1:00:14
Speaker 2: So we've got the.
1:00:15
Speaker 1: Design for twenty twenty six flagship as we are talking
1:00:19
Speaker 1: here on January twenty. First, go into the show notes
1:00:22
Speaker 1: and click on the links. We've actually got links to
1:00:24
Speaker 1: everything that we've talked about so far, but you'll also
1:00:27
Speaker 1: want to check it out to see some of what
1:00:29
Speaker 1: we're talking about here for twenty twenty six TOP Series one,
1:00:33
Speaker 1: which will be hitting shelves everywhere February eleventh, in a
1:00:37
Speaker 1: couple weeks, we'll have a bigger overview of that set
1:00:40
Speaker 1: because it is like the major release of this season
1:00:45
Speaker 1: on the calendar. It really also just kind of puts
1:00:47
Speaker 1: the stamp of like baseball is right around the corner
1:00:50
Speaker 1: that we should be right in the prime of, like
1:00:53
Speaker 1: spring training starting to kick off and everything, and so
1:00:55
Speaker 1: there's nothing better than ripping the new Series one from TOPS.
1:00:59
Speaker 1: But because we have the design, I figured we can
1:01:02
Speaker 1: touch on it a little bit and get into a
1:01:04
Speaker 1: few of the details before we get into that huge
1:01:06
Speaker 1: deep dive of TOPS twenty twenty six Series one. I
1:01:11
Speaker 1: don't know how to put this, but I hate this
1:01:14
Speaker 1: design like and more than that that like it's I
1:01:17
Speaker 1: think the more I've thought about it over like the
1:01:21
Speaker 1: time since they released it is I especially I loved
1:01:25
Speaker 1: last year's design, I think because of the elements of
1:01:28
Speaker 1: the lines and it harkening back to the early eighties
1:01:32
Speaker 1: designs that they kind of put together. This new design,
1:01:35
Speaker 1: it incorporates a real fabric with like the stripes from
1:01:39
Speaker 1: the jersey and puts it onto the front of the
1:01:42
Speaker 1: card on the borders, which I mean people have also
1:01:44
Speaker 1: called out like the borders are starting to get a
1:01:47
Speaker 1: little bit thicker and thicker. It feels like year over
1:01:49
Speaker 1: year because they, I think are just getting a little
1:01:53
Speaker 1: too creative with some of the parallels and what they
1:01:55
Speaker 1: can fit into those borders. But I was trying to
1:02:00
Speaker 1: look back through all the tops designs, the borders and
1:02:04
Speaker 1: the actual designs never incorporate like a real thing, you
1:02:09
Speaker 1: know what I mean, like the Jersey fabric like this,
1:02:11
Speaker 1: And I think that's what makes it off putting for
1:02:13
Speaker 1: me that it feels chinzy. It feels like a like
1:02:18
Speaker 1: a random set that would be included in the year.
1:02:21
Speaker 1: It doesn't feel like flagship, because what flagship means to
1:02:24
Speaker 1: me is it's a it's a design. It is something
1:02:28
Speaker 1: where there's an artistics design to it. There's not like
1:02:31
Speaker 1: a real fabric, you know, element to it. There's not
1:02:34
Speaker 1: like a dirt element to it, there's not a grass element.
1:02:38
Speaker 1: That's that's for parallels in my book that I want
1:02:40
Speaker 1: something that's just a straight up design on the card.
1:02:43
Speaker 1: And I feel like this is a little bit of like, hey,
1:02:45
Speaker 1: we couldn't think of something that was creative, we couldn't
1:02:48
Speaker 1: think of something that was modern, we couldn't think of
1:02:51
Speaker 1: something that fit twenty twenty six. We lean back on
1:02:54
Speaker 1: this ability to go with this design of the jersey
1:02:58
Speaker 1: and kind of like the patch with it. Are you
1:03:01
Speaker 1: with me on the twenty twenty six design or are
1:03:03
Speaker 1: you a fan of it?
1:03:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I'll go a little little more. Jury is
1:03:08
Speaker 3: out for me, Like I do agree like it, just
1:03:11
Speaker 3: it does not feel like flagship, So that's that's a
1:03:15
Speaker 3: knit against it. I do like the ability for them
1:03:19
Speaker 3: to get into some of those parallels with the multi
1:03:22
Speaker 3: color because of the kind of swatch that they have
1:03:25
Speaker 3: there for the team logos and the team letters. So
1:03:29
Speaker 3: I think that there's some cool things they can do.
1:03:32
Speaker 3: But I'm just I'm just waiting because again we talked
1:03:34
Speaker 3: about this, that is the seventy fifth anniversary. They've got
1:03:36
Speaker 3: to do something cool, unique, and I'm just I feel
1:03:40
Speaker 3: like this is what the thing it was the cool
1:03:42
Speaker 3: unique was was the kind of the base design being
1:03:46
Speaker 3: kind of different, and I feel like that's going to
1:03:48
Speaker 3: be a miss if that's the case. So I'm a
1:03:50
Speaker 3: little jury's out. I could see some of the parallels
1:03:52
Speaker 3: looking pretty cool with this, but from a base card perspective,
1:03:56
Speaker 3: it just feels I don't I almost want a k
1:03:59
Speaker 3: like Opening Day Esky, which is not fair to Opening
1:04:04
Speaker 3: Day because I liked Opening Day as a product.
1:04:06
Speaker 1: But it just feels like it's a cheaper version of
1:04:08
Speaker 1: Flagship Yeah, or even like Holiday Too, where it's like
1:04:12
Speaker 1: there's elements of like that's a really good one.
1:04:14
Speaker 3: It feels like Holiday.
1:04:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, because I mean you can go back through all
1:04:18
Speaker 1: of the flagship designs, I there's not anything kind of
1:04:21
Speaker 1: like this where it's always there is like a true
1:04:25
Speaker 1: design to it, And so I don't like that aspect
1:04:29
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty six.
1:04:30
Speaker 2: The other thing I don't like.
1:04:32
Speaker 1: I mean we kind of set up where we were
1:04:34
Speaker 1: trying to debate a couple of weeks ago with the
1:04:36
Speaker 1: seventy fifth anniversary, what route would tops and fanatics go here?
1:04:40
Speaker 1: Would they go for the cash cow or would they
1:04:43
Speaker 1: actually honor us collectors out there. And I think you
1:04:48
Speaker 1: we both knew what route they were going to go,
1:04:50
Speaker 1: and they went there. So the bad news here about
1:04:54
Speaker 1: Series one the Jumbo boxes. They've peeled back one of
1:04:58
Speaker 1: the hits. So you used to get three hits in there,
1:05:01
Speaker 1: and it used to be one auto and two patches
1:05:05
Speaker 1: at minimum. You know, it could have also been three
1:05:07
Speaker 1: autos or two autos and one patch, but at least
1:05:10
Speaker 1: you've got one auto and then they would fill it
1:05:12
Speaker 1: out with patches. They've taken back one of the hits.
1:05:15
Speaker 1: Now you're only getting one auto, one patch or two
1:05:18
Speaker 1: autos in each of the jumbos. They've also peeled back
1:05:21
Speaker 1: the number of cards that are going into the jumbos
1:05:26
Speaker 1: and the Mega or no into the megas and the blasters,
1:05:29
Speaker 1: where you're just getting fewer packs in there now, so
1:05:33
Speaker 1: everything's gonna be the same price. But they've been peeling
1:05:36
Speaker 1: back more and more hits. This has been slowly happening
1:05:39
Speaker 1: over the years, and it's never really quite gotten to
1:05:41
Speaker 1: the level of actually like taking hits out of the
1:05:45
Speaker 1: products quite as much. They've actually they're gonna be during
1:05:48
Speaker 1: a stadium club twenty twenty five as well too, where
1:05:51
Speaker 1: the hobby boxes there traditionally have had two hits in
1:05:56
Speaker 1: them over the years, but it's just one hit now
1:05:59
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five top stadium clubs. So I think
1:06:02
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a hallmark going into twenty twenty six.
1:06:06
Speaker 2: I'm just disappointed. What about you? Yeah, I mean I.
1:06:09
Speaker 3: Actually more just one of the stadium club which she
1:06:11
Speaker 3: used to be like two on card autos. Being down
1:06:14
Speaker 3: a one hit actually doesn't bother me too much because
1:06:17
Speaker 3: traditionally that one hit was like a manufactured relic. Some
1:06:21
Speaker 3: of them were pretty pretty poor, and so I feel
1:06:24
Speaker 3: like that's what we're giving up. I hope. If that's
1:06:26
Speaker 3: what we're giving up, I'm not too torn up. What
1:06:28
Speaker 3: it does bother me is it's kind of the sneaky
1:06:31
Speaker 3: backhanded We're no longer increasing the print run. We're just
1:06:35
Speaker 3: giving you less per box, which feels like you're not
1:06:39
Speaker 3: getting it. Which like you and I kids of the nineties,
1:06:42
Speaker 3: like you remember the days of buying a box of
1:06:45
Speaker 3: thirty six packs that had twelve cards of pack type
1:06:47
Speaker 3: of thing, right, you were in like five hundred cards,
1:06:50
Speaker 3: you know, every box you opened, and like it was
1:06:53
Speaker 3: just amazing grand There weren't things. They weren't such things
1:06:56
Speaker 3: as hits. Back in the day when we were opening those,
1:06:59
Speaker 3: it was just base car cards. And just the fact
1:07:03
Speaker 3: that it's just they're just ratching that down to kind
1:07:06
Speaker 3: of make the odds look better. But at the end
1:07:08
Speaker 3: of the day, the odds and better are actually worse
1:07:10
Speaker 3: because there's just less cards. I think that's it feels
1:07:16
Speaker 3: shady to me. It really feels shady. It's not like
1:07:18
Speaker 3: the increase in the print runs. It's the other way around.
1:07:21
Speaker 3: So I'm I'm disappointed to that.
1:07:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, me too, because I mean, I will say
1:07:28
Speaker 1: that the nineteen ninety one design that's going to be
1:07:31
Speaker 1: on the thirty fifth anniversary pops like it is. The
1:07:34
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one design is a strange design, especially when
1:07:38
Speaker 1: you get like into the materials printed on.
1:07:40
Speaker 2: But we talked about it a little bit.
1:07:43
Speaker 1: I think in the winter that I hope that they
1:07:45
Speaker 1: go back and find some of the old card stock
1:07:46
Speaker 1: to print the thirty fifth anniversary and to anyone designs on,
1:07:50
Speaker 1: because you just don't find crummy cardboard like that in
1:07:54
Speaker 1: baseball cards anymore. It's kind of fun, but yeah, I mean,
1:07:57
Speaker 1: it's just like it's already setting up twenty twenty six
1:08:01
Speaker 1: to be more of the worst of what's kind of
1:08:05
Speaker 1: gotten into this hobby. And on top of it, they've
1:08:08
Speaker 1: also peeled back the Montgomery Club this week too, so
1:08:12
Speaker 1: that has gone from Tops. There's slowly phasing out some
1:08:16
Speaker 1: of the rewards programs that used to exist only through
1:08:19
Speaker 1: Tops now that Finax is taking over, like some of
1:08:21
Speaker 1: the points and stuff. So now I do feel like
1:08:25
Speaker 1: it's starting to reach more of a breaking point because
1:08:28
Speaker 1: it does feel I mean, most of my feeling is
1:08:31
Speaker 1: from social media, on Blue Sky and on Reddit, but
1:08:35
Speaker 1: it does feel like there's more animosity towards Tops and
1:08:38
Speaker 1: fanatics than has been there even while we've been feeling
1:08:42
Speaker 1: that animosity that it feels like it's growing.
1:08:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, it definitely definitely is growing. The hobby's still live
1:08:48
Speaker 3: in world, don't get me wrong, but it's it's it's migrated.
1:08:50
Speaker 3: It's the haves and the have nots, and the casual
1:08:53
Speaker 3: collector is in a weird spot these days versus the
1:08:59
Speaker 3: it's the investment vehicle that some folks are trying to
1:09:01
Speaker 3: make it. So it's it's it's it's a weird dynamic
1:09:03
Speaker 3: right now. The hobby.
1:09:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I don't think it's ever going to like
1:09:06
Speaker 1: kill the hobby because like card shows will exist and
1:09:08
Speaker 1: people want that connection and the friendship and what the
1:09:11
Speaker 1: community means.
1:09:12
Speaker 2: But we don't need Tops and Fanatics for that. It's
1:09:16
Speaker 2: and I think that's gonna be You could do that
1:09:18
Speaker 2: with Panini and Leaf. That's just exactly so.
1:09:21
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a very kind of
1:09:23
Speaker 1: interesting couple of years setting up for Tops and fanatics.
1:09:26
Speaker 2: With that. All all that said, pre orders for twenty
1:09:29
Speaker 2: twenty six serious one our live.
1:09:31
Speaker 3: Well, well, the way to set that one up and
1:09:33
Speaker 3: hopefully we're not getting a compensated with an ad fee here.
1:09:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, the uh so that's in the that's in the
1:09:40
Speaker 2: show notes. That's linked.
1:09:42
Speaker 1: The hobby boxes and jumble boxes are gone at this
1:09:45
Speaker 1: at this time, but you can still get megas and
1:09:47
Speaker 1: value boxes and the Easter Eggs little tins because we'll
1:09:52
Speaker 1: be having those Spring theme parallels again in the middle
1:09:56
Speaker 1: of February. Like I said, we'll cover it more once
1:09:59
Speaker 1: we get more checklist details and a little bit more
1:10:01
Speaker 1: details overall of the set, as it's going to be
1:10:04
Speaker 1: coming out in a few weeks on February eleventh. When
1:10:07
Speaker 1: you're in those show notes, check out the calendar, because
1:10:09
Speaker 1: the calendar for the releases has shuffled around a little bit.
1:10:12
Speaker 1: We've got twenty twenty five TOPS Pristine coming out on
1:10:15
Speaker 1: February fourth. February eleventh also includes the MLB MVP Collection,
1:10:21
Speaker 1: which is pretty much just Otani and Judge hits Galore.
1:10:25
Speaker 2: It's what that's going to be.
1:10:27
Speaker 1: TOPS Gilded twenty twenty five is on February thirteenth, Top
1:10:31
Speaker 1: Stadium Club twenty twenty five, which we alluded to, will
1:10:34
Speaker 1: be on February eighteenth, and then in the future TBD.
1:10:38
Speaker 1: We've got twenty twenty five TOPS Museum Collection.
1:10:42
Speaker 2: I didn't check.
1:10:43
Speaker 1: Maybe Panini Select finally came out it.
1:10:46
Speaker 2: I don't really care, but I dropped it from the calendar.
1:10:49
Speaker 3: That's right. I actually like a few of these releases.
1:10:51
Speaker 3: Gilded Stadium Museum are actually really all fun releases, but
1:10:55
Speaker 3: it is a little far into twenty six to be
1:10:57
Speaker 3: doing those for twenty five.
1:10:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially now that they have lapped with Series one
1:11:02
Speaker 1: being on on the board, and I mean we should
1:11:05
Speaker 1: get Heritage details probably soonish, you know, after Series one
1:11:11
Speaker 1: comes out, then they really start rolling out Heritage so
1:11:14
Speaker 1: that should be at the beginning of the season as well,
1:11:15
Speaker 1: so you know, we might get more overlap there too,
1:11:19
Speaker 1: So something to consider as we get into the baseball
1:11:23
Speaker 1: card calendar for twenty twenty six. All right, with that,
1:11:26
Speaker 1: we're going to wrap it up for all the news
1:11:27
Speaker 1: and notes. We're gonna take a short break and then
1:11:30
Speaker 1: we'll be back on the other end with Chris Towers
1:11:32
Speaker 1: from CBS.
1:11:33
Speaker 2: To cover the NL East. All Right, welcome back, everybody.
1:11:53
Speaker 1: We're going to dive right into our NL East preview
1:11:56
Speaker 1: and to get us into the NL East. We've got
1:11:59
Speaker 1: a wonderful gusked here mister Miami Marlins himself from CBS Sports,
1:12:04
Speaker 1: Chris Towers. How you doing tonight, buddy.
1:12:07
Speaker 2: I believe Jeff Conine is officially mister Marlin, so I
1:12:10
Speaker 2: don't want to I don't want to step on his toes.
1:12:12
Speaker 2: That's that's that's his nickname.
1:12:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe Florida Marlins. He's Florida Marlins. You can be
1:12:17
Speaker 1: Miami Marlins. You know, different eras. But Chris, I mean,
1:12:20
Speaker 1: if people have been around fantasy baseball content and podcasts,
1:12:25
Speaker 1: I'm sure they know who you are. You've been at
1:12:28
Speaker 1: CBS Sports for quite a while, and I know I
1:12:31
Speaker 1: get your newsletter every day, and I'm sure lots of
1:12:34
Speaker 1: other listeners out there too, so you don't need too
1:12:36
Speaker 1: much of an introduction. But everybody who might not be
1:12:39
Speaker 1: familiar with your work at CBS Sports, let them know
1:12:42
Speaker 1: where they can read your work and reach you on socials.
1:12:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am at cp Towers on most social media.
1:12:49
Speaker 2: I'm primarily on Blue Sky these days, cbssports dot Com newsletter,
1:12:54
Speaker 2: Fantasy Baseball Today newsletters, So cbssports dot Com slash Newsletters
1:12:58
Speaker 2: is where I write and highly too much pretty much
1:13:02
Speaker 2: every day. Right now, it's like two or three times
1:13:04
Speaker 2: a week, but by the time pitchers and catchers report,
1:13:07
Speaker 2: it will be five days a week. And the Fantasy
1:13:10
Speaker 2: Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple, Stitcher podcast wherever you
1:13:17
Speaker 2: get your podcast, YouTube everywhere excellent, Paramount Plus maybe.
1:13:22
Speaker 1: It might be I wonder if you guys are on
1:13:24
Speaker 1: Paramount Plus.
1:13:25
Speaker 2: I'm gonna look for you next time I think I
1:13:27
Speaker 2: don't know.
1:13:29
Speaker 3: Many.
1:13:30
Speaker 1: You know, when you're watching Landman, you can then scroll
1:13:33
Speaker 1: Overdue is just a infinite.
1:13:36
Speaker 2: Scroll the Taylor Sheridan universe and then Chris Towers exactly.
1:13:41
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, thanks again for joining us here for this intro.
1:13:45
Speaker 1: We are gonna cover the in AA least. As I said, so,
1:13:47
Speaker 1: this is our third year doing these previews for the
1:13:50
Speaker 1: twenty twenty sixth season upcoming, but obviously we didn't do
1:13:54
Speaker 1: it for the twenty twenty sixth season in the previous years.
1:13:56
Speaker 1: What we're gonna do is we're gonna run through each
1:13:58
Speaker 1: team in the Al East alphabetical order, because of course,
1:14:02
Speaker 1: we're going to follow the way that I sort my
1:14:03
Speaker 1: baseball cards, and that's how I do it, is putting
1:14:06
Speaker 1: together all the comments in alphabetical order. What we're going
1:14:09
Speaker 1: to do is each have a buy and a sell
1:14:11
Speaker 1: from every team in the division based on their current.
1:14:14
Speaker 2: NFBC ADP data. So it's still a little bit.
1:14:17
Speaker 1: Early in the drafting process, so I'm looking at it
1:14:20
Speaker 1: from January first through today, which is January twenty first,
1:14:24
Speaker 1: but we've still got sixteen drafts, and you'd be surprised
1:14:27
Speaker 1: how quickly that NFBC data really kind of comes together
1:14:30
Speaker 1: and puts everything together, because at the end of the day,
1:14:34
Speaker 1: lots of people are working from similar projections and working
1:14:37
Speaker 1: from similar sources, but there will be little nuances that
1:14:40
Speaker 1: probably happen as people get signed and stuff throughout the
1:14:43
Speaker 1: next few weeks. But I think we've got a pretty
1:14:45
Speaker 1: solid set of data to at least do this exercise here.
1:14:49
Speaker 2: So with all that, with all that set up.
1:14:51
Speaker 1: Let's just get right into it. We're going to start
1:14:53
Speaker 1: at the top with the Atlanta Braves, who are coming
1:14:56
Speaker 1: off of a tough season last year, a fourth place
1:14:59
Speaker 1: finish go in seventy six and eighty six. They made
1:15:03
Speaker 1: a couple of decent signings in the offseason. We're looking
1:15:06
Speaker 1: at Robert Suarez joining the team in the relief corps,
1:15:09
Speaker 1: and then they did sign hassi On Kim, who is
1:15:12
Speaker 1: now out injured after slipping on some ice in Korea recently,
1:15:17
Speaker 1: and so that opens up a very large hole at
1:15:20
Speaker 1: shortstop again for the Atlanta Braves going into twenty twenty six.
1:15:24
Speaker 1: Otherwise pretty much returning just about the same team plus
1:15:27
Speaker 1: mike Yastrimsky in a platoon situation, but we're looking at
1:15:31
Speaker 1: a starting rotation that's also getting back Spencer Schwellenbach and
1:15:36
Speaker 1: Rynaldo Lopez, and we're looking at a core that is
1:15:41
Speaker 1: I mean, these guys have been together forever because of
1:15:43
Speaker 1: some of those contracts that they've signed and they've got
1:15:45
Speaker 1: another shot at it in twenty twenty six. Chris, We're
1:15:49
Speaker 1: gonna start with you. Who is your buy based on
1:15:51
Speaker 1: the NFBC ADP data for the Atlanta Braves?
1:15:57
Speaker 2: All right, So is it cheating to say Ronald Acunya. No,
1:16:03
Speaker 2: it's not. You can go as higher as low as
1:16:05
Speaker 2: you want. I So the big question with Ronald Acunya
1:16:08
Speaker 2: is the stolen bases. Right, He had a seventy three
1:16:12
Speaker 2: steel season in twenty twenty three. Twenty twenty four was
1:16:14
Speaker 2: a down year offensively, but he was still running a bunch,
1:16:17
Speaker 2: was on like a forty five steel fifty steel base
1:16:20
Speaker 2: towards ACL came back last season, didn't run nearly as much,
1:16:23
Speaker 2: only nine stolen bases in ninety five games. If he's
1:16:27
Speaker 2: not going to be a big stolen base threat, it
1:16:29
Speaker 2: puts a lot more pressure on the bat. Which, look,
1:16:32
Speaker 2: if he can hit like he did in twenty twenty three,
1:16:34
Speaker 2: he's arguably the top player in fantasy even if he
1:16:36
Speaker 2: steals five bases, but that's asking a lot. He hasn't
1:16:39
Speaker 2: been able to replicate the success from that year as
1:16:41
Speaker 2: far as strikeout rate. But then you look at what
1:16:44
Speaker 2: he's done in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he's only
1:16:47
Speaker 2: played sixteen games, but he has eleven steals in those
1:16:52
Speaker 2: sixteen games. If the Braves were going to be like, hey,
1:16:57
Speaker 2: you're not allowed to steal bases anymore, you have to
1:16:59
Speaker 2: stay healthy, or if he was thinging the same thing,
1:17:03
Speaker 2: surely that would apply to the exhibition games that he's
1:17:06
Speaker 2: playing at Laguada, right like that would apply as much
1:17:11
Speaker 2: there as it does in Atlanta. I know for players
1:17:15
Speaker 2: from Venezuela, playing in the Winter League is a big deal,
1:17:17
Speaker 2: and I don't want to diminish that, but I'm just
1:17:20
Speaker 2: saying the Braves could tell him he can't play there,
1:17:24
Speaker 2: and they could probably heavily suggest we'd prefer if you
1:17:27
Speaker 2: didn't run. The fact that he has eleven steals in
1:17:30
Speaker 2: sixteen games suggests that Rondalcunya is still very capable of stealing,
1:17:34
Speaker 2: very willing to steal. And I'm kind of assuming he's
1:17:38
Speaker 2: going to steal a bunch of bases in twenty twenty
1:17:40
Speaker 2: five to six. Probably not seventy three again, because that's
1:17:44
Speaker 2: unfair to ask of anyone, but I think even with
1:17:48
Speaker 2: an ADP of seven point nine in the month of January,
1:17:51
Speaker 2: I'm buying Rondicunya. He is a top five player for
1:17:54
Speaker 2: me in fantasy this season, all right?
1:17:57
Speaker 1: I like it, I mean, and obviously that's where the
1:18:00
Speaker 1: value is going to come, because most of the projection
1:18:02
Speaker 1: systems have him as like a two eighty ish hitter
1:18:05
Speaker 1: with thirty ish homers, you know, one hundred plus runs
1:18:09
Speaker 1: eighty five ish rbi. But all of them are saying
1:18:12
Speaker 1: mid twenties on the stolen bases, and if you're even
1:18:15
Speaker 1: getting that up to forty, I think you're probably correct
1:18:18
Speaker 1: that he's a top five guy. Jeremy, I know you're
1:18:20
Speaker 1: the top one hundred hitter here, hitter guy here?
1:18:24
Speaker 2: What are you thinking about this? Ronald Lacuna pick.
1:18:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I have no problem with that at all,
1:18:28
Speaker 3: because what you're looking for those top guys is power,
1:18:31
Speaker 3: speed combo. And if we believe he's gonna run, which
1:18:34
Speaker 3: he's always been a fishing based stealer, he's always been
1:18:37
Speaker 3: good when he does. It's just a question of like
1:18:39
Speaker 3: is he healthy enough to do it? And to your point,
1:18:41
Speaker 3: if he's doing in the Venezuelan League, like I would
1:18:44
Speaker 3: almost say that this probably shouldn't be doing it, even
1:18:46
Speaker 3: if they were willing to let him run because right, yeah,
1:18:48
Speaker 3: it doesn't make a lot of sense, but the facteah, yes, exactly,
1:18:53
Speaker 3: and so the fact that he's doing it gives me hope.
1:18:55
Speaker 3: And I think that means you're looking at a healthy,
1:18:57
Speaker 3: thirty thirty guy with upside and I think that's exactly
1:19:01
Speaker 3: what you're looking for in that top of that first
1:19:03
Speaker 3: half of the first round. So I like it. I
1:19:06
Speaker 3: have no problems with it at all. Let's just see
1:19:08
Speaker 3: what spring training brings. And I think that hype's gonna
1:19:10
Speaker 3: go even further if he keeps running in the spring training.
1:19:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's really fair. All right, Jeremy, who's
1:19:15
Speaker 1: your pick for a buye on the Braves?
1:19:18
Speaker 3: Yeah? So I'm gonna go completely the opposite side of
1:19:20
Speaker 3: the ADP on the Braves because that's kind of the
1:19:22
Speaker 3: guy I like to be and when I righte my top.
1:19:25
Speaker 3: So I'm going to go with really exciting Mike Yastrimsky
1:19:30
Speaker 3: ADP of four fifteen ish giver or take. When you
1:19:34
Speaker 3: got sixteen seventeen drafts, there's not really much you can
1:19:36
Speaker 3: go with, but I absolutely love what Mike Strimsky did
1:19:41
Speaker 3: last year after he was traded to the I think
1:19:45
Speaker 3: it was the Royals. Yes, I was looking at the
1:19:47
Speaker 3: Giants' numbers, but looking at the Royals. And you know,
1:19:50
Speaker 3: when he moved over, he had a WRC plus of
1:19:54
Speaker 3: ninety five hit, eight homers, two thirty average and one
1:19:58
Speaker 3: hundred games. And when he went over, he dropped his
1:20:00
Speaker 3: strikeout rate from twenty three percent to eleven percent. And
1:20:04
Speaker 3: he suffered from a poor babe in all those things.
1:20:08
Speaker 3: And he made better contact in the zone. And this
1:20:10
Speaker 3: is a guy that's always made a good contact in
1:20:12
Speaker 3: the zone, but it got even better. And his swinging
1:20:14
Speaker 3: strike dropped mainly because they platooned the guy and they
1:20:18
Speaker 3: knew what they were doing, and it looks like they
1:20:21
Speaker 3: leaned into somewhere the Giants never did. And he got
1:20:23
Speaker 3: better and more comfortable because of that. And when we're
1:20:26
Speaker 3: talking about four or five hundred ADP, I don't care
1:20:28
Speaker 3: what it is. I'm okay with a guy that is
1:20:31
Speaker 3: in a platoon situation and knows what he's doing and
1:20:35
Speaker 3: can get the most of it. So this is a
1:20:37
Speaker 3: guy late in drafts. I'm grabbing left and right because
1:20:40
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be in a strong lineup and
1:20:42
Speaker 3: they need a guy like him to just be steady
1:20:45
Speaker 3: Eddie and be in that bottom third maybe back of
1:20:49
Speaker 3: the second third lineup and just piling up RBIs. So
1:20:53
Speaker 3: I'm going through the Strimski here. I think he's gonna
1:20:55
Speaker 3: be a little hidden Jim and heck, they paid up
1:20:57
Speaker 3: pretty good for him, so you better believe he's gonna play.
1:21:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's all fair. I mean you're also
1:21:02
Speaker 1: waiting into my territory for some waiver wire fodder here.
1:21:05
Speaker 1: But I think this is a great call that right
1:21:07
Speaker 1: now roster Resource has Yaz set up to be the
1:21:10
Speaker 1: sixth hitter in that lineup, and I mean that could
1:21:13
Speaker 1: be RBI galore, considering the top five in front of
1:21:16
Speaker 1: him is a Kunya, Matt Olson, Jerks and Profar Drake Baldwin,
1:21:20
Speaker 1: Austin Riley.
1:21:21
Speaker 2: So this is a great call.
1:21:23
Speaker 1: You're getting him out of San Francisco and even Kansas
1:21:25
Speaker 1: City being a tough spot.
1:21:26
Speaker 2: So uh not a bad little his park for left
1:21:29
Speaker 2: handed hitters. I Atlanta. All right?
1:21:33
Speaker 3: All right, coolies, where are you going with your with
1:21:35
Speaker 3: your bye?
1:21:35
Speaker 1: We're we're on a good fast start because we've got
1:21:38
Speaker 1: no double ups here, and I'm gonna go with Hurston
1:21:42
Speaker 1: Waldrup as my buye so.
1:21:44
Speaker 2: I really loved what Hurston Waldrup put up.
1:21:46
Speaker 1: In the end of the season, and you know, I
1:21:49
Speaker 1: think he showed exactly what you want to see from him,
1:21:52
Speaker 1: and that's he's been staying on the mound and he's
1:21:56
Speaker 1: been healthy and being able to just control the splitter
1:22:00
Speaker 1: enough to put it in the zone, to keep the
1:22:02
Speaker 1: walks at a good enough level let it all play up,
1:22:05
Speaker 1: because that splitter also creates a great ground ball, right
1:22:08
Speaker 1: you know, we had a forty nine point three percent
1:22:10
Speaker 1: ground ball percentage, which I know you and I love. Certainly,
1:22:13
Speaker 1: there might be a little more strikeout in the profile
1:22:15
Speaker 1: that we'd love, but if he's gonna put up eight
1:22:17
Speaker 1: point eight k nine just like he did last year,
1:22:19
Speaker 1: it was fantastic. It was only fifty six and a
1:22:22
Speaker 1: third innings at the big leagues, but it was ninety
1:22:24
Speaker 1: one and two thirds at Triple A, And so you
1:22:26
Speaker 1: add that together, you're looking at a guy who put
1:22:29
Speaker 1: up almost one hundred and forty five innings plus of
1:22:32
Speaker 1: work last year. That shows me that they really trust
1:22:35
Speaker 1: Waldrop and they've got him stretched out here for twenty
1:22:37
Speaker 1: twenty six. So he's going pretty late right now in drafts.
1:22:42
Speaker 1: I think compared to what you're looking at for most
1:22:44
Speaker 1: Atlantis starting pitchers, he's around.
1:22:47
Speaker 2: Pick two sixty four.
1:22:49
Speaker 1: And I mean I liked Waldrop when he came out
1:22:51
Speaker 1: of Florida, but everything's lining up where this is like
1:22:54
Speaker 1: the classic Braves breakout guy in the rotation, where I
1:22:58
Speaker 1: could see Waldrup putting up something pretty similar, even if
1:23:01
Speaker 1: he just stretches out last year with that fip, it
1:23:04
Speaker 1: was a three twenty one fip. If you get somebody
1:23:07
Speaker 1: who's gonna put up a three five ERA, that's gonna
1:23:10
Speaker 1: be the under on all the era projections for him
1:23:13
Speaker 1: right now. And I think Waldrop's got the skill set
1:23:15
Speaker 1: to be able to do that given the nasty, nasty splitter.
1:23:18
Speaker 1: And you also compared it to a little bit, you know,
1:23:21
Speaker 1: of what we saw Tray Savage on the Blue Jays.
1:23:24
Speaker 1: It's not as much height and not as much nastiness
1:23:28
Speaker 1: as Tray Savage, but there's a lot of similarities that
1:23:31
Speaker 1: I like here in Hurston Waldrop.
1:23:33
Speaker 2: And he comes from that big overhead angle. It's not
1:23:36
Speaker 2: quite Trey of Savage, but you know, fifty six degree
1:23:40
Speaker 2: arm angle is is pretty extreme, and he rebuilt his
1:23:44
Speaker 2: arsenal last year going cutter sinker rather than the four seamer,
1:23:48
Speaker 2: basically got rid of the four seamer, and it's one
1:23:50
Speaker 2: of those ones where, like, I don't know if the
1:23:52
Speaker 2: cutter is. It's good itself, only a ten percent with
1:23:56
Speaker 2: rate four twenty six x wOBA allowed, but it might
1:24:00
Speaker 2: just help everything else play better, or he might just
1:24:02
Speaker 2: command it a little better than the four seamer. But
1:24:04
Speaker 2: he looked a lot better last year. So this is
1:24:08
Speaker 2: this is definitely what I'm interested in at a very
1:24:11
Speaker 2: cheap cost. Like you can get him probably for a
1:24:14
Speaker 2: bench pick, almost in a twelve team league at least.
1:24:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, And I mean I think you're looking at
1:24:19
Speaker 1: somebody in a twelve team league who can be that
1:24:21
Speaker 1: last starter, and you're not really committing too much to him.
1:24:24
Speaker 2: So I love Waldrip. All right, let's get into the sales.
1:24:27
Speaker 1: Let's get a little negative here, Chris, who are you
1:24:29
Speaker 1: gonna go with for yourself?
1:24:33
Speaker 2: I think the obvious one is Spencer Strider. His ADP
1:24:38
Speaker 2: in the month of January is up to around one hundred.
1:24:43
Speaker 2: I get it. There are three active pit four active
1:24:49
Speaker 2: pitchers who have had at least two hundred and seventy
1:24:50
Speaker 2: five strikeouts, maybe five and Spencer Straider is one of them.
1:24:54
Speaker 2: He had two hundred and eighty one strikeouts. I think
1:24:56
Speaker 2: at twenty twenty three, that's a long time ago. Yeah,
1:25:01
Speaker 2: in like, it's not that long ago. But in the
1:25:04
Speaker 2: span of Spencer Strider's career, he has blown out his elbow,
1:25:10
Speaker 2: suffered or undergone the internal embrace procedure, and looked awful
1:25:18
Speaker 2: last year, Like there was really the slider's still really good,
1:25:22
Speaker 2: but that was kind of all he had last year.
1:25:24
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess he'll occasionally throw a curveball or
1:25:27
Speaker 2: change up. There are decent with pitches, but he's always
1:25:30
Speaker 2: basically just been fastball slider, Like ninety percent of his
1:25:33
Speaker 2: pitches have been fastball slider, and he's lost about three
1:25:37
Speaker 2: miles per hour off his slider from his peak and
1:25:40
Speaker 2: two miles per hour since twenty twenty three. His command
1:25:44
Speaker 2: is not good enough to overcome that loss of stuff,
1:25:47
Speaker 2: and maybe another year further removed, he'll he'll be a
1:25:51
Speaker 2: little better. But the thing I worry about with him
1:25:53
Speaker 2: is typically what you see when guys first come back
1:25:57
Speaker 2: from major elbow surgery is the stuff is fine. I
1:26:00
Speaker 2: go look at san Andy Olcontro last year. The stuff
1:26:02
Speaker 2: looked fine when he came back. It was just it
1:26:05
Speaker 2: took him a while to figure out the command. Well,
1:26:08
Speaker 2: Streider's stuff never got better. His fastball velocity was consistently
1:26:12
Speaker 2: in the ninety four to ninety five mile per hour
1:26:14
Speaker 2: range throughout the season, and I just I don't know
1:26:18
Speaker 2: if he's good enough to thrive without an elite fastball,
1:26:23
Speaker 2: and he has, He's a long way from having an
1:26:25
Speaker 2: elite fastball. So I don't hate in theory the idea
1:26:31
Speaker 2: of betting on a Spencer Streider bounce back, but I
1:26:35
Speaker 2: just can't make sense of an eighth or ninth round
1:26:38
Speaker 2: pick in a twelve team league, let alone a sixth
1:26:41
Speaker 2: round pick or seventh round pick in a fifteen team league,
1:26:44
Speaker 2: like that's that's your number two in all in all likelihood.
1:26:50
Speaker 2: That's a lot of risk for a number two for
1:26:52
Speaker 2: a guy that you know, we're going on three years
1:26:55
Speaker 2: since we've seen it.
1:26:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree, And I mean you can see
1:26:59
Speaker 1: it and the stuff plus numbers where it's all backed
1:27:02
Speaker 1: up on them, and you you nailed it that the
1:27:05
Speaker 1: fastball because it just like eight the spin on it
1:27:08
Speaker 1: was so nasty and it came out of the same
1:27:10
Speaker 1: slot with that slider, you couldn't tell what was what,
1:27:13
Speaker 1: and by the time Batters figured it out and prime
1:27:17
Speaker 1: Spencer strider, the slider was out of his own or
1:27:20
Speaker 1: the fastball was right in on your hands. And if
1:27:22
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the fastball to the workoff of everything
1:27:25
Speaker 1: else falls apart pretty quickly unless he can develop a
1:27:28
Speaker 1: fourth or fifth pitch. Jeremy, was this your sell too?
1:27:34
Speaker 1: It was not my cell, but not far off from
1:27:36
Speaker 1: it because I grew with everything Chris said. But I'm
1:27:38
Speaker 1: gonna go up like two spots in the ADP and cool.
1:27:43
Speaker 1: You can probably predict this one because it's probably my
1:27:45
Speaker 1: cell almost every single year, and.
1:27:47
Speaker 3: Here we go again. Sorry, Michael Harris. I just cannot
1:27:50
Speaker 3: get on that bandwagon. It's just too many headaches, too
1:27:55
Speaker 3: many issues. The regular relegation to the bottom of the
1:27:58
Speaker 3: lineup with the guy that's gonna, you know, play one
1:28:00
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty games and somehow only score fifty runs.
1:28:03
Speaker 3: With that speech and that lineup seems like he should
1:28:05
Speaker 3: do more. It just always feels like a guy that
1:28:08
Speaker 3: is about to fall all apart. And then you can
1:28:11
Speaker 3: have one hot month and you're kind of back in
1:28:13
Speaker 3: the bandwagon and for a guy with one hundred ADP,
1:28:17
Speaker 3: I just don't want the headache. I think there's there's
1:28:19
Speaker 3: talent there that you can't really deny, but the consistency
1:28:23
Speaker 3: for investing that high of a pick is just not
1:28:24
Speaker 3: something I'm willing to do. There's other guys around that
1:28:27
Speaker 3: ADP that have more reliability, and I like to build
1:28:31
Speaker 3: teams that have reliability in those earlier rounds so I
1:28:34
Speaker 3: can take the gambles later. And I feel like with
1:28:36
Speaker 3: Michael Harris, I'm taking a gamble that I know I've
1:28:38
Speaker 3: already lost because I'm going to be battling from behind
1:28:41
Speaker 3: on some of the basic categories, hoping he runs enough
1:28:44
Speaker 3: and hoping the power sticks. So I like Michael Harris,
1:28:48
Speaker 3: but it's very similar to what Chris, what you said
1:28:51
Speaker 3: at this ADP. I'm just not there. I think that
1:28:54
Speaker 3: there's other guys that are more reliable that I would
1:28:56
Speaker 3: be willing to take. You bump that back another four
1:28:59
Speaker 3: or five rounds. I'm all in. I'm all about it.
1:29:01
Speaker 3: It just feels like for a guy that would have
1:29:04
Speaker 3: been probably betting ninth if it wouldn't be for Hassan
1:29:06
Speaker 3: Kim getting hurt in this lighteup I'm just I'm just
1:29:10
Speaker 3: not sure it's worth the hope again to have your
1:29:14
Speaker 3: heart crushed.
1:29:15
Speaker 2: I definitely wish he was cheaper. And I am growing
1:29:17
Speaker 2: growing increasingly wary of the horrible plate discipline guys because
1:29:25
Speaker 2: not that they're all bad, but like you look at
1:29:28
Speaker 2: a lot of guys from last year who are really
1:29:30
Speaker 2: big disappointments, and Jiner Diaz was one of the biggest
1:29:33
Speaker 2: disappointments in baseball. He's very much a free swinger. Michael
1:29:36
Speaker 2: Harris was in that group. And then I look at
1:29:38
Speaker 2: like Pek Armstrong, who was not a disappointment. He was
1:29:41
Speaker 2: a great pick last year, but incredible first half, awful
1:29:47
Speaker 2: second half. I just think there's some inherent volatility to
1:29:53
Speaker 2: the guys who just they have no other way of
1:29:57
Speaker 2: being productive if they're not getting results on balls and play.
1:30:02
Speaker 2: That being said, the thing that I always come back
1:30:05
Speaker 2: to with Michael Harris is let's look at last year's
1:30:10
Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year finishers, so the'se got. Michael Harris
1:30:13
Speaker 2: has been around for a long time. We've gone through
1:30:15
Speaker 2: all kinds of cycles with Michael Harris. He was a
1:30:17
Speaker 2: borderline second round pick coming off his rookie season, people
1:30:21
Speaker 2: were done with him last year. He is three weeks
1:30:24
Speaker 2: older than Drake Baldwin. He is five months older than
1:30:28
Speaker 2: Kate Horton. He is thirteen months older than Caleb Durban.
1:30:32
Speaker 2: He's four years younger than Isaac Collins, and he's twenty
1:30:35
Speaker 2: months older than Dale and Lyle. Dan and Lyle super young.
1:30:37
Speaker 2: It's just to point out that, like for all we've
1:30:41
Speaker 2: been through with Michael Harris, this dude is twenty four
1:30:43
Speaker 2: years old. He is still very very young. He is
1:30:47
Speaker 2: supremely physically talented, and it's the kind of thing where
1:30:51
Speaker 2: if there's just a small improvement in the there's like
1:30:56
Speaker 2: the tools versus skills distinction where he's got outrageous tools
1:31:01
Speaker 2: and maybe the skills aren't great. If those skills bump
1:31:04
Speaker 2: up a little bit and he just gets a little
1:31:06
Speaker 2: more refined, he could take off. That's the one thing
1:31:11
Speaker 2: that keeps me from being out on Michael Harris is just, yeah,
1:31:15
Speaker 2: maybe the volatility is a bit much to deal with.
1:31:18
Speaker 2: It's a low floor. I still think the ceiling here
1:31:22
Speaker 2: could be super super high.
1:31:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought, well, first first disagreement on the pod,
1:31:27
Speaker 3: it wasn't like a full Disagreement's be very clear, but
1:31:29
Speaker 3: like slight disagreements both usually we get through like at
1:31:34
Speaker 3: least like two or three guys.
1:31:35
Speaker 2: So I like it.
1:31:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and I can see both sides too,
1:31:39
Speaker 1: because I think also what I'm hearing from you Chris
1:31:41
Speaker 1: is more of like I like Harris and more of
1:31:43
Speaker 1: like a keeper dynasty situation where you're kind of are
1:31:47
Speaker 1: looking still for that upside because he is still twenty
1:31:49
Speaker 1: four and you could kind of see it coming together.
1:31:51
Speaker 2: I love the bat speed.
1:31:53
Speaker 1: That was like one of the things when we were
1:31:54
Speaker 1: at f Pads that like you know, had that presentation
1:31:58
Speaker 1: where they were starting to charge out the correlation of
1:32:01
Speaker 1: bat speed to talent, and it was like very much
1:32:04
Speaker 1: locked in, and so I love that. But yeah, if
1:32:07
Speaker 1: this dude doesn't walk, he has no semblance of the zone.
1:32:10
Speaker 1: So I hate him for like, well, hates mebe a
1:32:12
Speaker 1: little bit of a strong word. I di just like
1:32:14
Speaker 1: him at the price for a one year league. But
1:32:18
Speaker 1: if you're in a dynasty keeper situation, I'm still holding.
1:32:21
Speaker 1: The other component here too, is know your league. If
1:32:23
Speaker 1: you're in a Rod situation, Harris is much better. If
1:32:26
Speaker 1: you're in a head to head league, Michael Harris is
1:32:29
Speaker 1: just absolute death for a position spot in a head
1:32:33
Speaker 1: to head league, because in a there's a weeks where
1:32:35
Speaker 1: he'll he'll go weeks without getting hits, without getting on base,
1:32:39
Speaker 1: and so he will just absolutely annihilate some of those weeks.
1:32:46
Speaker 2: And if you're in an OBP or you know, like
1:32:49
Speaker 2: a head to head points league that plays like an
1:32:51
Speaker 2: OBP league, like the CBS format, he's not a starting
1:32:55
Speaker 2: caliber outfielder in that format because walks count for a lot,
1:33:00
Speaker 2: losing points for strikeouts. It's it's really it's a very
1:33:04
Speaker 2: razor thin edge that he has with his approach, and.
1:33:09
Speaker 3: I think it kind of calls out that outfield feels
1:33:12
Speaker 3: them this year, like the fact that he still is
1:33:14
Speaker 3: going where he is from an outfield perspective, really borderline
1:33:17
Speaker 3: top twenty outfielder that also just feels wrong to a degree.
1:33:22
Speaker 3: And then you kind of go down the list and
1:33:23
Speaker 3: you're like, well, it's the then thin role this year.
1:33:26
Speaker 3: If you're in those five outfielder leagues and you're trying
1:33:28
Speaker 3: to pull something together and you're sitting here looking at
1:33:32
Speaker 3: you know, Colton Cowser against Mickey Moniac later in the draft,
1:33:34
Speaker 3: not feeling so great.
1:33:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, all right, Well, my cell is a
1:33:40
Speaker 1: pitcher that's going about twenty spots ahead of Spencer Strider,
1:33:44
Speaker 1: another Spencer. I'm selling Spencer schroellenback here. And don't get
1:33:48
Speaker 1: me wrong, I love this guy. I love the arsenal,
1:33:51
Speaker 1: the stuff, plus metrics across the board are just about
1:33:55
Speaker 1: above average on everything but his curveball, and he's been
1:34:00
Speaker 1: great when he's been available. But that's a number two
1:34:04
Speaker 1: starting pitcher. Like almost it's starting to borderline like number
1:34:07
Speaker 1: one starting pitcher. Price at pick eighty there for Spencer Schwollenbach.
1:34:12
Speaker 1: This dude did not get back on the mound after
1:34:14
Speaker 1: a broken elbow last year, and he also came with
1:34:18
Speaker 1: a very high risk profile. He came from Nebraska when
1:34:22
Speaker 1: he was drafted as a shortstop slash closer. The Braves
1:34:25
Speaker 1: have been slowly trying to stretch him out, and then
1:34:28
Speaker 1: when they finally got him really stretched out into twenty
1:34:30
Speaker 1: twenty fivezzy dude goes and breaks his elbow throwing a pitch.
1:34:34
Speaker 1: So it's just way too much risk. I do love
1:34:37
Speaker 1: the profile, I love everything about him, but until I
1:34:42
Speaker 1: see some more of him on the mound in a
1:34:45
Speaker 1: healthy twenty twenty six, I can't be in on him,
1:34:48
Speaker 1: because you just don't know how sideways Spencer Schwellenbach can
1:34:52
Speaker 1: go on you. And at pick eighty, that is a
1:34:55
Speaker 1: big time pick for your team, Like you've got to
1:34:57
Speaker 1: be taking a very formid starting pitcher there.
1:35:01
Speaker 2: You've got to be taken.
1:35:02
Speaker 1: That's where a lot of first closers go, like the
1:35:04
Speaker 1: back end of the first closer pool, or I mean
1:35:08
Speaker 1: like the fourth or fifth best hitter on your team possibly.
1:35:10
Speaker 1: So it's just way too high of a price for
1:35:13
Speaker 1: me to be risking that in Spencer Schwellembach for twenty
1:35:15
Speaker 1: twenty six.
1:35:16
Speaker 2: That is two significant elbow injuries in five years for
1:35:20
Speaker 2: Spencer Schwellenbach. Hey have Tommy John surgery at right after
1:35:22
Speaker 2: he got drafted in twenty twenty one. Twenty twenty four,
1:35:27
Speaker 2: he had like a like one hundred inning jump if
1:35:30
Speaker 2: you include the playoffs, something like eighty plus inning jump
1:35:32
Speaker 2: from the previous year. And then he breaks down because
1:35:36
Speaker 2: he starts throwing harder or along with throwing harder, And
1:35:40
Speaker 2: it's a question of, well, yeah, but we saw him
1:35:42
Speaker 2: be effective in twenty twenty four without throwing that hard.
1:35:47
Speaker 2: I never know how to account for that, because, like
1:35:49
Speaker 2: Jacob Degram last year seemingly consciously decided to not throw
1:35:54
Speaker 2: as hard and was still very effective. We just don't
1:35:57
Speaker 2: know if Spencer Schwellenbach can throw at ninety five percent
1:36:01
Speaker 2: capacity and be that effective. So it I'm not out
1:36:05
Speaker 2: on him, but it's a it's an unknown unknown ye
1:36:10
Speaker 2: For me, it's just how how he looks after this injury. Yeah.
1:36:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, And Cooley, you know, I love Spencer Schwellenbach because
1:36:18
Speaker 3: most leagues that you and I are in you have
1:36:20
Speaker 3: traded him to me based on the same premise, And
1:36:24
Speaker 3: it's I'm not seeing him as a bye by any means.
1:36:26
Speaker 3: I'm kind of more ware Chris is, which is like
1:36:29
Speaker 3: the talent here and the profile behind him. It reminds me.
1:36:33
Speaker 3: And this is not a fair calm from a you know,
1:36:35
Speaker 3: maybe a stuff perspective, but the career trajectory of like
1:36:38
Speaker 3: a Noah Cinderguard when you looked at the strikehills versus
1:36:41
Speaker 3: the walk versus the ground balls like that profile, and
1:36:44
Speaker 3: you could just dream of this guy that could just
1:36:45
Speaker 3: jump into the next echelon the velocity he's out of.
1:36:48
Speaker 3: So like when I look at Schwellenbach, there's this like
1:36:51
Speaker 3: scary injury history, but there's still this amazing upside that
1:36:54
Speaker 3: you're like trying to balance. Eighty ADP feels a little
1:36:59
Speaker 3: little rich for that. I think that if that slides
1:37:01
Speaker 3: back just a few rounds, I'm willing to go there.
1:37:04
Speaker 3: Or if you go pitcher heavy early in the draft,
1:37:06
Speaker 3: I think I think it's perfectly fine. But it is
1:37:09
Speaker 3: hard to say, Hey, maybe just you wait a few
1:37:11
Speaker 3: rounds and pick up you know, one of our buddies,
1:37:14
Speaker 3: Sonny Gray or something like that, and for a little
1:37:16
Speaker 3: more Libby, maybe Nathan Uvaldi. There's a lot of options
1:37:20
Speaker 3: there that are be a lot safer, but this one
1:37:22
Speaker 3: at least has upside. And you know, we know from
1:37:26
Speaker 3: this podcast I'll take an injured starting pitcher any day.
1:37:29
Speaker 2: You do love them a lot.
1:37:31
Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's get on to the Miami Marlins. The
1:37:34
Speaker 1: next team alphabetically in the NL East, Chris Towers is
1:37:37
Speaker 1: Miami Marlins. I should say, as we've got a team
1:37:40
Speaker 1: that finished third place last year at seventy nine and
1:37:44
Speaker 1: eighty three, I think they're going to be a bit
1:37:46
Speaker 1: of a sexy wild card pick this year. Just big
1:37:49
Speaker 1: kind of trajectory from that seventy nine win, and honestly,
1:37:53
Speaker 1: they've played fantastic down the stretch, kept the New York
1:37:55
Speaker 1: Mets out of the playoffs with that last final series
1:37:58
Speaker 1: of the season, and it's been a pretty standard Peter.
1:38:03
Speaker 2: Bendicks off season.
1:38:04
Speaker 1: I would say shuffling the roster round, dealing from a
1:38:09
Speaker 1: position of strength on the pitching side, because this has
1:38:11
Speaker 1: turned into a pitching powerhouse factory franchise in terms of
1:38:15
Speaker 1: what they've been pumping out that they've been able to
1:38:18
Speaker 1: also now deal out Ryan Weathers and Edward Cabrera in
1:38:21
Speaker 1: the off season, but that did net them own Casey,
1:38:24
Speaker 1: who should walk right into the starting lineup. They still
1:38:29
Speaker 1: need a first basement. I wouldn't be surprised if Paul
1:38:31
Speaker 1: Goldsmith lands here in Miami. There's some other first basement
1:38:36
Speaker 1: out there, like Nathaniel Lowe that I think they'll figure
1:38:39
Speaker 1: it out. But with all those things considered, we've got
1:38:43
Speaker 1: an up and coming Marlins team, lots of great choices.
1:38:46
Speaker 2: More.
1:38:46
Speaker 1: I think when we did this last year, we might
1:38:48
Speaker 1: not even had like a sell because like there was
1:38:50
Speaker 1: nobody at a price that made sense to sell. So
1:38:55
Speaker 1: it's intriguing this year that we actually have some people
1:38:58
Speaker 1: to buy, some people to sell from the Marlin so, Chris,
1:39:01
Speaker 1: who you going with for your buy?
1:39:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's first off, just a lot harder to come
1:39:05
Speaker 2: up with a cell for a team like the Marlins,
1:39:07
Speaker 2: although they do have some candidates as far as buys.
1:39:11
Speaker 2: I didn't want to go with Owen Casey and Robbie
1:39:14
Speaker 2: Snelling just because they're so cheap. They're both outside of
1:39:16
Speaker 2: the top three hundred in January. But I with Robbie Snelling,
1:39:21
Speaker 2: I just think the chances of him being in the
1:39:24
Speaker 2: rotation are being underrated. His he are at his ADP
1:39:27
Speaker 2: is three fifteen. I think roster resource holds kind of
1:39:32
Speaker 2: a large sway over how people think about playing time,
1:39:35
Speaker 2: and he's not currently in the projected rotation for them.
1:39:39
Speaker 2: Some of the guys in front of him are Max Meyer,
1:39:43
Speaker 2: who's coming off hip surgery, Brax and Garrett coming off
1:39:45
Speaker 2: Tommy John he'll be about thirteen months removed by the
1:39:47
Speaker 2: time spring training starts, and Janson Junk. I don't think
1:39:53
Speaker 2: any of those guys are keeping Robbie Stelling out of
1:39:55
Speaker 2: the rotation. I think the bigger question for the Marlins
1:39:57
Speaker 2: is if Thomas White can win a job in spring training,
1:39:59
Speaker 2: and I think there's a real chance of that so
1:40:02
Speaker 2: don't forget about him. He is arguably one of the
1:40:05
Speaker 2: top two or three pitching prospects in baseball. So I
1:40:10
Speaker 2: think Robbie is selling it on in case he at
1:40:11
Speaker 2: Their prices are great buys. My actual pick those Sandy
1:40:17
Speaker 2: a Contra one P fifty one, coming off one hundred
1:40:20
Speaker 2: and seventy four innings season, coming off Tommy John surgery.
1:40:23
Speaker 2: He's just built completely different than anyone else. I think
1:40:28
Speaker 2: it is reasonable to expect him to get to one
1:40:30
Speaker 2: hundred and ninety innings as long as he stays healthy.
1:40:32
Speaker 2: There are not more than a couple guys I would
1:40:33
Speaker 2: say that about and after the All Star break he
1:40:36
Speaker 2: figured it out. I actually there was this stretch right
1:40:40
Speaker 2: before the All Star break. I think his final three
1:40:42
Speaker 2: starts before the All Star break he gave up eighteen
1:40:44
Speaker 2: runs the seventeen innings, which is bad, but it was
1:40:47
Speaker 2: one of those things where watching it, I was like,
1:40:49
Speaker 2: this kind of looks like the old Sandial Contra because
1:40:52
Speaker 2: he would always have these starts where he gets a
1:40:54
Speaker 2: lot of ground balls they just find spots. But his
1:40:57
Speaker 2: command was improving. He was pitching deep into aims, which
1:41:00
Speaker 2: is always even when Sandy doesn't do well, he's pitching
1:41:03
Speaker 2: deep into games. Once that started to click around late
1:41:06
Speaker 2: June or early July, I was like, all right, I
1:41:08
Speaker 2: think he's gonna figure it out. He had a three
1:41:10
Speaker 2: thirty one ERA. After the All Star break, he bumped
1:41:13
Speaker 2: the strikeout right up about four percentage points. The walk
1:41:15
Speaker 2: rate was down to six percent. I think in the
1:41:17
Speaker 2: second half he got that command back. I don't think
1:41:20
Speaker 2: we're gonna see another cy young season from Sandy Acontra,
1:41:23
Speaker 2: but a three point fifty ERA, he's probably gonna get
1:41:26
Speaker 2: to like one hundred and seventy five, one hundred and
1:41:27
Speaker 2: eighty strikeouts just from volume alone. I think he's a
1:41:32
Speaker 2: very good pick around one point fifty, and especially given
1:41:36
Speaker 2: the way the pitcher pool plays this year, because you
1:41:39
Speaker 2: have a lot of really risky guys, or at least
1:41:42
Speaker 2: a lot of unproven guys being drafted around one hundred.
1:41:44
Speaker 2: You know that Nolan McLain, Cam Schlitzler, Treya Savage, James
1:41:51
Speaker 2: Zerowski check him as Roowski, all those guys in that
1:41:54
Speaker 2: range where like Chase Burns, Yury Perez. I think there's
1:41:57
Speaker 2: a lot to like about them. They're all super talented,
1:41:59
Speaker 2: but a lot of question marks about workload a lot
1:42:02
Speaker 2: of question marks about how good they actually are. I
1:42:05
Speaker 2: love being able to take one of those guys and
1:42:07
Speaker 2: then wait four rounds and take Sandy al Contra and
1:42:10
Speaker 2: get a little bit of that stability in my invitation
1:42:13
Speaker 2: as well. So, Homer, I gave you three buys.
1:42:16
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, No, that's that's perfectly fine. I think this
1:42:20
Speaker 1: is a great call because I think everything that you
1:42:22
Speaker 1: brought up, honestly, this is a little bit of like
1:42:25
Speaker 1: Spencer Strider and Sandy all Contra is like ADPs pretty
1:42:28
Speaker 1: much need to be flopped flip flopped to my book
1:42:30
Speaker 1: between you know, all Contra is going around one fifty.
1:42:34
Speaker 1: This is a great call that I think he's ready
1:42:37
Speaker 1: to go. You can just see it. Even in his
1:42:39
Speaker 1: year long fit number was four twenty eight versus a
1:42:42
Speaker 1: five thirty six ERA, so a sixty one point nine
1:42:46
Speaker 1: percent left on base percentage. That's uh, that's nuts for
1:42:50
Speaker 1: a starting pitcher. So the bullpen is also better in Miami,
1:42:54
Speaker 1: I think than it was last year, So that's gonna
1:42:55
Speaker 1: help too. So great call out, Brew. What do you
1:42:59
Speaker 1: think about Sandy A Contra?
1:43:00
Speaker 3: I see, I mean, I think you know, I would
1:43:03
Speaker 3: actually jump on Chris's other guys I'll mention Sandy briefly
1:43:06
Speaker 3: is that I think he is that he's like oddly
1:43:09
Speaker 3: even though he's still incredibly young, like moving into that
1:43:11
Speaker 3: solid veteran afterthought mode, which like there's a weird draft
1:43:15
Speaker 3: discount for those kind of guys. He's not exciting in
1:43:18
Speaker 3: literally anything he does, which is usually the guys that
1:43:21
Speaker 3: give you a ton of value. And so I absolutely
1:43:24
Speaker 3: love the guys that are not good at like not
1:43:26
Speaker 3: brilliant at any one thing, but they're really good at
1:43:28
Speaker 3: a lot of things. I feel like I'm talking about
1:43:31
Speaker 3: late Thomas when he first started playing for the Nationals.
1:43:34
Speaker 3: But I think I think al Contra is good, a
1:43:37
Speaker 3: great pick. Actually, I really thought Chris was reading my
1:43:39
Speaker 3: notes because I had three guys listed. It was Robbie
1:43:42
Speaker 3: Stelling Casey, and I was really hoping. I'm like, please
1:43:45
Speaker 3: just go here. If we get three for three, we'll
1:43:47
Speaker 3: be we'll be fantastic. But more or less, you can
1:43:49
Speaker 3: pretty much buy the entire Marlins ADP at this point
1:43:52
Speaker 3: outside of maybe at one or two guys. But for me,
1:43:54
Speaker 3: it's Kyle Stowers. I'm I think, you know, if you
1:43:59
Speaker 3: look at Kyle Stowers, performance last year, the fact that
1:44:03
Speaker 3: he really got better as the year got on. The
1:44:06
Speaker 3: strikeout dropped throughout the year, the power stayed. And if
1:44:11
Speaker 3: you just compare him to another favorite of this podcast,
1:44:15
Speaker 3: Brent Rooker, like the profiles of those two guys are
1:44:18
Speaker 3: uncannily similar, and we're talking to one hundred points difference
1:44:21
Speaker 3: in ADP for this guy. And he's gonna be in
1:44:24
Speaker 3: a better lineup this year. He's gonna have you a
1:44:27
Speaker 3: full year under his belt. And honestly, he seems to
1:44:30
Speaker 3: like tire at the end of the last year a
1:44:32
Speaker 3: little bit. So this is a bat that forty homers
1:44:36
Speaker 3: is not out of the question. I think he absolutely
1:44:38
Speaker 3: can be a forty homer bat hitting two seventy five
1:44:41
Speaker 3: in Miami, and I think it's gonna surprise some people
1:44:44
Speaker 3: this year. So I'm only on Kyle Stowers, But like
1:44:47
Speaker 3: I said, I pretty much pick any guy on the
1:44:49
Speaker 3: top ten ADP here and I'll probably buy him.
1:44:53
Speaker 2: I made this same Brett Rucker comp several times with
1:44:56
Speaker 2: Kyle Stowers. It feels very similar to Brett Rucker in
1:44:59
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, and it's just I Brett Riker was
1:45:03
Speaker 2: so good in twenty twenty four that I think that
1:45:04
Speaker 2: would be an unfair expectation for because I think he
1:45:07
Speaker 2: had thirty nine homers and like fifteen steels was a
1:45:09
Speaker 2: crazy season, but it was a late breakout that a
1:45:14
Speaker 2: lot of people were skeptical of, but the underlying numbers
1:45:16
Speaker 2: backed it up. And the only concern I have with
1:45:20
Speaker 2: Stours is just he's gonna play against more lefties. Can
1:45:24
Speaker 2: he handle that? I'm not sure, but I I I
1:45:29
Speaker 2: think he's a good value either way. He's one forty one.
1:45:32
Speaker 2: I think in ADP I've got him around one ten
1:45:36
Speaker 2: in my rankings. So I like Kyle Stowers quite a bit. Yeah,
1:45:39
Speaker 2: I think me.
1:45:40
Speaker 1: Actually, if anything, the risk is actually that the price
1:45:42
Speaker 1: is going to rise, I think on Stours as the
1:45:45
Speaker 1: season gets deeper and deeper into the draft season, where
1:45:49
Speaker 1: people realize they look at that savant page and they realized, oh,
1:45:52
Speaker 1: this wasn't like some sort of fluke performance.
1:45:55
Speaker 2: It was all legitimate. So well, and I get being skeptical,
1:45:58
Speaker 2: like he only had four months really where he played
1:46:02
Speaker 2: last season. I get being skeptical about that, But then
1:46:05
Speaker 2: I look at like Lawrence Butler last year had two
1:46:11
Speaker 2: good months and he was like a top sixty pick. So, like,
1:46:15
Speaker 2: I get being skeptical skeptical about stars, but we are
1:46:19
Speaker 2: We're already being skeptical. If you take what he did
1:46:21
Speaker 2: at face value last year, He's a top twenty five hitter.
1:46:24
Speaker 2: He was seventeenth in the league in x wOBA. He
1:46:27
Speaker 2: was ahead of Nick Kurtz in x wOBA, which is wild,
1:46:31
Speaker 2: and nobody's giving him that credit. So I think the
1:46:35
Speaker 2: skepticism has already built in, baked into the price. Yeah,
1:46:39
Speaker 2: I think that's fair.
1:46:40
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, even with all those bites that you
1:46:42
Speaker 1: guys brought up, I mean obviously, I mean I think
1:46:44
Speaker 1: Owen Casey and Snelling are almost too easy. Based on
1:46:47
Speaker 1: the ADP data right now, they will rise, especially Owen Casey,
1:46:50
Speaker 1: I think is about to skyrocket up.
1:46:53
Speaker 2: I found another one.
1:46:54
Speaker 1: I'm digging out a Lopez mostly because it's just an
1:46:58
Speaker 1: easy set it and forget it, like fifteen fifteen with
1:47:01
Speaker 1: upside though, Like, this is a guy who last year
1:47:04
Speaker 1: he added a tick to his overall batspeed. He just
1:47:09
Speaker 1: kind of found a groove and he bounced around for
1:47:12
Speaker 1: so long when he was just kind of within the
1:47:15
Speaker 1: Toronto system and made his way down to Miami, and
1:47:19
Speaker 1: it didn't seem like, you know, he was kind of
1:47:22
Speaker 1: known as like a bit of like a glove firstish
1:47:25
Speaker 1: kind of guy, and I think he just found a
1:47:28
Speaker 1: spot to be able to be comfortable in Miami. I mean,
1:47:31
Speaker 1: last year he put up a I mean, I think
1:47:34
Speaker 1: even the batting average could increase because it's only a
1:47:36
Speaker 1: two sixty four babbit overall. That led to that two
1:47:39
Speaker 1: forty six. So you look at his projections for next year,
1:47:42
Speaker 1: they get him back up to that like two seventy
1:47:44
Speaker 1: ish range, and I think the power was actually legit,
1:47:48
Speaker 1: that he did a good job of just hitting the
1:47:51
Speaker 1: ball harder, and I think you give him another offseason
1:47:54
Speaker 1: that he might develop even more power within that bat.
1:47:57
Speaker 1: So I just really am digging Auto Lopez every time
1:48:01
Speaker 1: I look at the profile. He's just a well rounded hitter.
1:48:04
Speaker 1: He plays pretty solid defense, and he's just gonna stick
1:48:08
Speaker 1: at second base for the Marlins, I think, all season.
1:48:11
Speaker 1: So you're looking at a guy who, I mean, I
1:48:13
Speaker 1: guess shortstop at the end of the day, but who's
1:48:15
Speaker 1: just gonna be there all year. Can be pretty steady,
1:48:18
Speaker 1: and when you're looking up at the end of the season,
1:48:21
Speaker 1: he could be fifteen, fifteen, twenty twenty somewhere in that range,
1:48:23
Speaker 1: and you're gonna just really enjoy where you draft him at,
1:48:28
Speaker 1: which is around pick Oh, I had it open, but
1:48:31
Speaker 1: then two twenty yeah, exactly, So that's not bad at all.
1:48:34
Speaker 1: You're looking at like it's actually Mike Trout's going like
1:48:37
Speaker 1: right in that area, which is kind of funny right now,
1:48:39
Speaker 1: But I think it's a great spot to pick up
1:48:42
Speaker 1: a second baseman shortstop.
1:48:44
Speaker 3: Am I.
1:48:45
Speaker 2: Agreed? All right?
1:48:47
Speaker 1: Well, I know we don't have too many choices for selling,
1:48:51
Speaker 1: but Chris, do you have a cell from the Miami
1:48:54
Speaker 1: Marlins here?
1:48:57
Speaker 2: Uri Perez's cost makes me a little itchy. I don't
1:49:00
Speaker 2: want to say I'm selling it, but top one hundred
1:49:03
Speaker 2: pick for a guy who's ever thrown one hundred innings
1:49:05
Speaker 2: in the major league level. I don't love that. But
1:49:09
Speaker 2: it's also like, if you're this good, this young, you
1:49:13
Speaker 2: almost always become an ace. He is twenty two. He
1:49:17
Speaker 2: doesn't turn twenty three until like April fifteenth. I think
1:49:22
Speaker 2: like he is younger. He's like two years younger than
1:49:25
Speaker 2: Nolan MacLean. I'm pretty sure it just your pres is
1:49:28
Speaker 2: still a baby, and so I'm I don't want to
1:49:32
Speaker 2: plant that flag, so I guess it's Savior Edwards. It's
1:49:36
Speaker 2: just that's mine too. It's the steep it like you
1:49:42
Speaker 2: can squint and see like a Nico Horner profile here,
1:49:46
Speaker 2: except Nico Horner is a much better bet for ratting average,
1:49:49
Speaker 2: Nico Horner is a better bet for thirty plus steals,
1:49:51
Speaker 2: and Xavier Edwards is not a big source of runs,
1:49:56
Speaker 2: and so you add it all up and it's like
1:50:00
Speaker 2: like he's a C plus version of Nico Horner across
1:50:03
Speaker 2: the board. Nico Horner is not exactly an exciting player,
1:50:07
Speaker 2: and I don't know if there's any upside here. He
1:50:11
Speaker 2: could have, like I made this comp I was talking
1:50:14
Speaker 2: Marlins on a podcast earlier today, and he could have
1:50:18
Speaker 2: like that one D. Gordon season, right, Like, you make
1:50:20
Speaker 2: this much contact, you're fast, you can slap your way
1:50:25
Speaker 2: to a random three twenty season like he did in
1:50:27
Speaker 2: a partial twenty twenty four. Even in that twenty twenty
1:50:31
Speaker 2: four though it's thirty nine runs in seventy games, it's
1:50:33
Speaker 2: not terrible, but it's like an eighty five run pace.
1:50:37
Speaker 2: I don't think the steals from that year were real.
1:50:39
Speaker 2: He's actually not that fast. Seventy fifth percent on sprint speed.
1:50:43
Speaker 2: So it's just I'm not sure if Xavier Edwards is
1:50:50
Speaker 2: all that valuable even within the relatively not valuable archetype
1:50:55
Speaker 2: he fits, and it's not that hard to find twenty
1:50:58
Speaker 2: seven steals anymore, and.
1:51:00
Speaker 1: It's such a zero on power that like he's starting
1:51:03
Speaker 1: to also get up against the line where Jeff Zipperman
1:51:06
Speaker 1: always calls out this line at a six fifty ops,
1:51:09
Speaker 1: where if you're below that, even if you're a speed guy,
1:51:12
Speaker 1: you probably can't get a regular lineup spot. And Xavier
1:51:15
Speaker 1: Edwards it was a six ninety six ops last year,
1:51:18
Speaker 1: but you know he's going to be pushing it, I think.
1:51:20
Speaker 1: And then another reason he's my cell is that you're
1:51:24
Speaker 1: just looking at who's coming up behind him in the system.
1:51:27
Speaker 1: I think, I mean, Jared Serna is certainly a pretty
1:51:31
Speaker 1: talented player. I really love Maximo Costa, and so I
1:51:35
Speaker 1: think there's a pretty decent chance that you're looking at
1:51:40
Speaker 1: just the way that the roster shuffles out, and especially
1:51:43
Speaker 1: if the Marlins want to be competitive for that wild card,
1:51:46
Speaker 1: Xavier Edwards might not be their best choice at second base.
1:51:50
Speaker 3: It's the argument we've had in this podcast many times
1:51:52
Speaker 3: about the Luis Arias. Effect of a player who's perceived
1:51:56
Speaker 3: is really good because if they do one thing relatively
1:51:59
Speaker 3: above and then everything else is so poor that he
1:52:03
Speaker 3: actually hurts you from just physically having him on your team,
1:52:06
Speaker 3: regardless of the price. And that's kind of where I
1:52:08
Speaker 3: see Edwards. And so I'm right there with you, guys,
1:52:10
Speaker 3: Like it just doesn't feel like at any point am
1:52:12
Speaker 3: I getting the value I want because I'm just chasing
1:52:14
Speaker 3: behind all the categories. He calls me pain in and
1:52:19
Speaker 3: I put him in the wrong times. I don't get
1:52:20
Speaker 3: the steels. When I put him on against the wrong guys,
1:52:22
Speaker 3: I Benjim, he steals four bases, Like why would you
1:52:26
Speaker 3: do that to yourself? Like that, that's the challenge so amazing.
1:52:29
Speaker 2: We all agreed he's cheaper than Chandler's. He's more expensive
1:52:33
Speaker 2: than Chandler Simpson now, and I don't love Chandler Simpson,
1:52:36
Speaker 2: But if you're gonna go for that archetype, I think
1:52:38
Speaker 2: Chandler Simpson's the better source of batting average and a
1:52:41
Speaker 2: way better source of steel. So I don't love Chandler Simpson.
1:52:45
Speaker 2: I think there are real limitations for him as a
1:52:48
Speaker 2: real life player. But if I'm aiming for the batting
1:52:51
Speaker 2: average and stolen base guy at that range. Chandler Simpson
1:52:55
Speaker 2: might steal twice as many bases.
1:52:57
Speaker 3: As he might have three hundred and steal eighty bases,
1:53:00
Speaker 3: and he might.
1:53:01
Speaker 2: Be a one win player while doing because he's such
1:53:04
Speaker 2: a bad power hitter and bad defender. Like, I think
1:53:07
Speaker 2: there's more playing time risk for Chandler Simpson, but I
1:53:11
Speaker 2: think I'd rather still just roll the dice on him
1:53:13
Speaker 2: than than Xavier Edwards at that price.
1:53:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. All right, Well, let's move
1:53:17
Speaker 1: on to the enigmatic New York Mets. So this is
1:53:22
Speaker 1: a team that collapsed in twenty twenty five to get
1:53:25
Speaker 1: to a second place finished in the NA least at
1:53:27
Speaker 1: eighty three and seventy nine. It's been an interesting offseason,
1:53:31
Speaker 1: as I mean until this really this past week, it
1:53:34
Speaker 1: was a bunch of nothing outside of bringing in Marcus
1:53:37
Speaker 1: Simeon and then making Jorge Polanco their first baseman out
1:53:40
Speaker 1: of nowhere to replace fan favorite Pete Alonzo. So it's
1:53:45
Speaker 1: a it's this team that's still probably a little bit
1:53:48
Speaker 1: in fux. It feels like there's a couple more moves
1:53:50
Speaker 1: coming here, especially on the rotation and bullpen. It feels
1:53:54
Speaker 1: like they need a couple more pieces, But we're looking
1:53:57
Speaker 1: at a roster on the lineup side that probably is
1:54:00
Speaker 1: pretty set after especially acquiring Luis Robert Jr.
1:54:03
Speaker 2: And Bobachett this past week.
1:54:06
Speaker 1: You know, I currently Ruster Resource has Carson benj being
1:54:10
Speaker 1: their starting left fielder. We'll see whether or not that sticks,
1:54:13
Speaker 1: but I mean, he was so fantastic last year in
1:54:15
Speaker 1: the minor leagues he just might. So, Chris, let's move
1:54:19
Speaker 1: over to you for your bye here from the New
1:54:21
Speaker 1: York Mets one.
1:54:23
Speaker 2: I think Carson Benches is the starting left fielder. I
1:54:25
Speaker 2: think there's a very very strong I would be I
1:54:29
Speaker 2: would be surprised if he wasn't, is what I would say.
1:54:33
Speaker 2: So I like him a lot. I think he's a
1:54:35
Speaker 2: great value. But my pick is a guy that I
1:54:40
Speaker 2: just don't think anyone realized how good he was in
1:54:44
Speaker 2: the second half, and that's Francisco Alvarez, who has had
1:54:47
Speaker 2: a lot of hype. But like Michael Harris, Francisco overs
1:54:51
Speaker 2: is still really young, especially for a catcher. He just
1:54:55
Speaker 2: turned twenty four a couple months ago. Most catchers are
1:54:59
Speaker 2: not at the major league level at twenty four, and
1:55:02
Speaker 2: Alvarez has had a lot of ups and downs in
1:55:04
Speaker 2: his career. He was famously sent back to Triple A
1:55:07
Speaker 2: mid season in twenty twenty five. He hit like twelve
1:55:10
Speaker 2: homers in twenty games or something when he got down
1:55:12
Speaker 2: to Triple A, and then when he twelve homers in
1:55:15
Speaker 2: twenty six games, came back to the majors and from
1:55:17
Speaker 2: that point on he had a let's see if I
1:55:20
Speaker 2: can go quick math and I had nine to twenty
1:55:22
Speaker 2: one ops in the second half. He hit two seventy six.
1:55:27
Speaker 2: He cut a few ticks off his strikeout rate, his
1:55:30
Speaker 2: average EGGS velocity after the All Star break ninety three
1:55:33
Speaker 2: point four miles per hour, and that was while dealing
1:55:37
Speaker 2: with multiple hand injuries. I think he had a ligament
1:55:41
Speaker 2: injury in one hand and a fractured thumb in another
1:55:44
Speaker 2: that he played through and still put up really good numbers.
1:55:48
Speaker 2: He's still really young. Catcher development is I mean, all
1:55:51
Speaker 2: young player development is nonlinear, but catchers especially Look at
1:55:56
Speaker 2: Adley Rutchman for the opposite example. I think there's a
1:56:00
Speaker 2: chance Francisco Alvarez just figured it out last year with
1:56:04
Speaker 2: that emotion, and his price is won seventy five right now.
1:56:07
Speaker 2: I think he's one of my favorite values at the
1:56:11
Speaker 2: catcher position, a position where frankly, there are not a
1:56:14
Speaker 2: lot of values anymore. Everybody's expensive at catcher.
1:56:17
Speaker 1: Now.
1:56:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is a great call. It he was.
1:56:20
Speaker 3: He was the guy that I originally put down as
1:56:22
Speaker 3: my bibe and I won a different path. But I'm
1:56:25
Speaker 3: right there with you. He looks so much better. And
1:56:28
Speaker 3: there's this weird element of catcher right now where all
1:56:31
Speaker 3: these quote unquote young guys came up and you know,
1:56:34
Speaker 3: kind of took the league by storm, and everybody's looking
1:56:36
Speaker 3: at those fancy new toys and forgetting that Alvarez is
1:56:39
Speaker 3: still just one of those guys. He's still right in
1:56:42
Speaker 3: the mix of that age group.
1:56:43
Speaker 2: And I would guess he's younger than I would guess
1:56:46
Speaker 2: he's younger than Ben Rice, Shei lang Lears, Augustny Ramirez,
1:56:50
Speaker 2: he might be. I think he's younger than Drake Baldwin
1:56:52
Speaker 2: even I.
1:56:53
Speaker 3: Think he is. He just turned twenty four.
1:56:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, like that he is, And he was maybe by
1:56:59
Speaker 2: far the most well regarded of that group as a prospend.
1:57:02
Speaker 2: So that doesn't mean everything or potentially anything when you're
1:57:06
Speaker 2: three or four years into a player's career, but it's
1:57:09
Speaker 2: just to point out that there still might be some
1:57:13
Speaker 2: juice left to squeeze there and it might be underrated
1:57:16
Speaker 2: at this point. Yeah.
1:57:18
Speaker 1: And I think the other thing to keep in mind
1:57:20
Speaker 1: is he broke that handmate in spring training, I believe,
1:57:24
Speaker 1: last year, and that usually takes a year to heal.
1:57:27
Speaker 1: So I mean, he put up that production in the
1:57:29
Speaker 1: second half while still recovering from that handmate. So I
1:57:33
Speaker 1: think this is a great call.
1:57:34
Speaker 2: Brew. Who is your pick for the buye on the Mets?
1:57:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, as much as I wanted to go with Alvarez,
1:57:39
Speaker 3: I wanted to go back to the pitching side and
1:57:40
Speaker 3: a guy that's not right now, you know, per Ross
1:57:43
Speaker 3: slated to be in the rotation as Jonathan and I
1:57:47
Speaker 3: look at the guys that came up late last year
1:57:49
Speaker 3: and we were talking about all the talent and there
1:57:51
Speaker 3: were some great, great guys that came up and made
1:57:54
Speaker 3: some noise, and he was regarded as one of the
1:57:57
Speaker 3: better ones. And he had, I say, a rough go
1:58:01
Speaker 3: of it. He only had a seven to seven e
1:58:02
Speaker 3: ra doesn't really sparkle, but he had terrible luck within
1:58:07
Speaker 3: that almost a four hundred babe of forty five percent
1:58:10
Speaker 3: left on base, which that's just impressive to be able
1:58:12
Speaker 3: to pull that off. And you know, you look at
1:58:15
Speaker 3: his entire minor league track record. This is a guy
1:58:17
Speaker 3: that was striking out thirteen fourteen. You know, k per nine.
1:58:20
Speaker 3: He was consistently delivering low eras, has the control, keeps
1:58:25
Speaker 3: the ball on the ground. He does all those things
1:58:27
Speaker 3: that you really like. And when he was on the mound,
1:58:30
Speaker 3: you could tell the stuff was nasty, you could tell
1:58:32
Speaker 3: it was hard to pick up. He just he he
1:58:35
Speaker 3: unlucky and didn't get the notoriety because of it. And
1:58:39
Speaker 3: you look at what's in front of him in this
1:58:41
Speaker 3: rotation and it's you know, absolutely screams you know, modicum
1:58:44
Speaker 3: of health between Clay Holmes, Sean Manaya and code I
1:58:48
Speaker 3: singa David Peterson, you know, actually does tend to stay healthy.
1:58:52
Speaker 3: But it's gonna be a rotation headline by Noel McLain,
1:58:54
Speaker 3: who I would argue is not too different from a
1:58:58
Speaker 3: skill set. And you know what he was coming through
1:59:00
Speaker 3: the miners is tong So I think he's gonna pitch
1:59:05
Speaker 3: at least twenty twenty five starts this year. It's just
1:59:08
Speaker 3: kind of a matter of who breaks down win for
1:59:12
Speaker 3: that Mets rotation.
1:59:14
Speaker 2: It makes perfect sense why Treya Savage is going way
1:59:17
Speaker 2: ahead of Jonah Thong. But throughout the entirety of last season,
1:59:22
Speaker 2: and then when they both got called up late, there
1:59:25
Speaker 2: wasn't a lot of separating them. They were probably the
1:59:27
Speaker 2: two most dominant pitchers in the miners at any level
1:59:30
Speaker 2: last season. Tong was, if anything, a little ahead of
1:59:34
Speaker 2: him in terms of where he was on the ladder
1:59:36
Speaker 2: doing it more against high miners players. The Savage should
1:59:41
Speaker 2: be going ahead of him. That all makes perfect sense,
1:59:43
Speaker 2: but the talent level may not be that different. Now.
1:59:47
Speaker 2: I make the Savage point because they're both kind of
1:59:51
Speaker 2: outliers in terms of the way they pitched. They both
1:59:53
Speaker 2: have this supreme overhand release these high ride fastballs. Tongs
1:59:59
Speaker 2: is a change up, buddy. It serves a similar purpose
2:00:02
Speaker 2: as you Savages splitter. So I I think Tong, if
2:00:09
Speaker 2: he gets that opportunity fairly early, and it's entirely possible
2:00:12
Speaker 2: what happens in spring training or coming out of spring training,
2:00:15
Speaker 2: I think there's a decent chance everybody for just forgot
2:00:19
Speaker 2: how special his season was last year.
2:00:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we're talking a three eighteen EIGHTYP at this point,
2:00:25
Speaker 3: which I mean ironically is above Clay Holmes David Peterson
2:00:28
Speaker 3: for that rotation, but like, yeah, that that's I want
2:00:31
Speaker 3: to call it free. But for the upside that you
2:00:35
Speaker 3: have there, pick that up in in the preseason. Here,
2:00:38
Speaker 3: see what happens in spring training, and if you have
2:00:40
Speaker 3: to cut bait, you cut bait and you're not anything.
2:00:42
Speaker 2: If he gets probably coming in sixtieth, pick sixtieth.
2:00:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, but you're talking about a guy that should have
2:00:47
Speaker 3: gone like ADP one fifty if if you know he's
2:00:50
Speaker 3: in the role, So like there's a huge, huge opportunity
2:00:53
Speaker 3: to earn here.
2:00:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair.
2:00:56
Speaker 1: Well, my pick is again different. We're pretty good at
2:01:00
Speaker 1: picking different guys here. You've mentioned him a couple of
2:01:03
Speaker 1: times brew in that group of guys that were going
2:01:05
Speaker 1: after talking min it's David Peterson, And so a lot
2:01:08
Speaker 1: of it is just the price. I mean, it's a
2:01:10
Speaker 1: three sixty five ADP. It's really really late. And the
2:01:15
Speaker 1: biggest thing here for me Peterson is you can.
2:01:18
Speaker 2: Just tell that he wore down. He put up a
2:01:20
Speaker 2: career high in innings last.
2:01:21
Speaker 1: Year, which you wouldn't surprise it would be it's surprising,
2:01:25
Speaker 1: you know, for a twenty nine year old, especially given
2:01:27
Speaker 1: that he's been around for so long with the Mets.
2:01:29
Speaker 1: But he's been bounced in and out of the rotation.
2:01:32
Speaker 1: He's been up and down from the miners over his career,
2:01:34
Speaker 1: and so they stretched him all the way to the
2:01:38
Speaker 1: end for the first time in his career with one
2:01:40
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty and two thirds innings, and it just
2:01:43
Speaker 1: pops out right away when you look at the first
2:01:45
Speaker 1: half second hand splits before the All Star break one
2:01:47
Speaker 1: hundred and nine innings of a three zero six era
2:01:50
Speaker 1: post All Star break fifty nine to two thirds of
2:01:52
Speaker 1: a six thirty four era across the board. The fifth
2:01:56
Speaker 1: was pretty solid between the two that in the first
2:01:59
Speaker 1: half you had a fip of a three forty two
2:02:02
Speaker 1: second half three sixties, so a little bit of the
2:02:04
Speaker 1: degradation there, but it was especially in the walks. It
2:02:06
Speaker 1: went from a three point one walk per nine in
2:02:10
Speaker 1: the first half to a four point two walk per
2:02:13
Speaker 1: nine in the second half. And so what I like
2:02:16
Speaker 1: about this is Peterson's now been stretched out tow one
2:02:18
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy ish innings one time, So you're looking
2:02:21
Speaker 1: at a guy who I mean, I think at least
2:02:24
Speaker 1: through the first half of the season you can all
2:02:26
Speaker 1: and I don't think he's gonna get maybe all the
2:02:27
Speaker 1: way back to that three zho sixty RA, but I
2:02:30
Speaker 1: think you can be looking closer towards what his projections are,
2:02:35
Speaker 1: especially from I think Steamer is actually picking in this
2:02:37
Speaker 1: up great a three sixty to SIXTYRA over one hundred
2:02:40
Speaker 1: and eighty too, in one hundred and eighty in two
2:02:44
Speaker 1: innings with around an eight K nine That is much
2:02:50
Speaker 1: much better than a three hundred and sixty fifth pick
2:02:54
Speaker 1: in the draft. That I mean, at that level, you're
2:02:57
Speaker 1: almost getting almost into like the Sandy y'all contra sort
2:03:01
Speaker 1: of territory that the Whip's gonna be a little bit
2:03:03
Speaker 1: rougher with David Peterson, But like I think you're looking
2:03:06
Speaker 1: at a solid starting pitcher for twelve teamers even that,
2:03:09
Speaker 1: Like this is a guy that great home park set.
2:03:13
Speaker 1: Didn't forget it when he's at City Field, and then otherwise,
2:03:15
Speaker 1: like if you can stream him for the best matchups
2:03:18
Speaker 1: on the road, Wow, that's why I think a perfect
2:03:20
Speaker 1: landing spot.
2:03:21
Speaker 2: And he's going cheap call his start machine last year too. Yeah,
2:03:25
Speaker 2: that's huge, just a Tony starts. Yeah, So, I mean
2:03:28
Speaker 2: it baffles me that he's going so late. Yeah, it
2:03:35
Speaker 2: reminds me very much. Cool if what guy you called
2:03:38
Speaker 2: out last year, Nathan y Valdi. It's this groundball, extreme
2:03:42
Speaker 2: extension kind of guy. And if you go back of
2:03:45
Speaker 2: all his career, he's not always had the greatest stuff.
2:03:48
Speaker 2: He just controls it, avoids the blow ups things like that.
2:03:51
Speaker 3: David Peterson's the guy that you just draft to put
2:03:53
Speaker 3: at the back of your rotation and fill in whenever
2:03:56
Speaker 3: else gets hurt. Right, He's He's that kind of guy.
2:03:58
Speaker 3: So I like it, especially at the eighty.
2:04:01
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to those cells. So Chris, who's
2:04:04
Speaker 1: yourself from the Mets.
2:04:07
Speaker 2: Let me just sorry. I just got a text and
2:04:13
Speaker 2: I just wanted to look something up before I answer,
2:04:16
Speaker 2: no problem. Okay. There's some rumblings about Freddy per Alta
2:04:22
Speaker 2: to the Mets, Mark Findsen saying they're deep talks on that,
2:04:26
Speaker 2: and would it be cheating if I said a guy
2:04:30
Speaker 2: who's not currently on their team, because I hate Freddy
2:04:33
Speaker 2: per Alta's price right now. But if I can't say him.
2:04:37
Speaker 3: No, you could say him because we've done this before
2:04:39
Speaker 3: and it's actually been me. I've like called free agents out,
2:04:41
Speaker 3: like no, I don't care where you're at. I'm putting
2:04:43
Speaker 3: on the team when I'm not.
2:04:44
Speaker 2: This man, he was like one hundred and twentieth and
2:04:47
Speaker 2: ADP last year and I loved it. Now he's like
2:04:49
Speaker 2: sixty fifth and he was the same exact guy. Like
2:04:52
Speaker 2: there was almost no skill difference for Freddy Peralta in
2:04:56
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five, and all of
2:04:58
Speaker 2: a sudden, he's like a fourth round pick in a
2:05:00
Speaker 2: fifteen team league. I don't get it. But sticking to
2:05:03
Speaker 2: players who are actually on the Mets, I don't understand
2:05:06
Speaker 2: why Nolan McLain is the rookie that we're bumping way
2:05:10
Speaker 2: way way up like this, Like there is that I'm
2:05:14
Speaker 2: in my rankings. I think I just kind of did
2:05:17
Speaker 2: a cop out and went with, Yeah, it was Cameron Schlitzler,
2:05:24
Speaker 2: Chase Burns, Jacob Zierowski, Bubba Chandler, Treya Savage, and Nolan
2:05:27
Speaker 2: McLain all and around. I just threw those six guys
2:05:30
Speaker 2: in the thirty five through forty range at starting pitcher
2:05:36
Speaker 2: and cause I just I think they're all awesome. I
2:05:38
Speaker 2: think they all have like the exact same strengths and
2:05:41
Speaker 2: weaknesses in terms of like a macro sense you can
2:05:45
Speaker 2: dive in and they have different specific strengths and weaknesses.
2:05:48
Speaker 2: But it's all these guys were all really good or
2:05:50
Speaker 2: showed really cool skills for like fifty or so innings.
2:05:55
Speaker 2: We don't know how real that was, we don't know
2:05:56
Speaker 2: how sustainable it was. I'm just gonna group them all
2:05:59
Speaker 2: and if i want one of them, it's whatever one's
2:06:02
Speaker 2: cheapest when I'm picking, And instead Nolan McClain's like at
2:06:06
Speaker 2: one oh three, and adp and everyone else like Kem Schuitler,
2:06:09
Speaker 2: who had this awesome postseason is like one forty h.
2:06:12
Speaker 2: Treya Savage even better postseason, historically dominant postseason is like
2:06:17
Speaker 2: one fifty. I think, why why did we decide Nolan
2:06:20
Speaker 2: McLean is the only one of that group who needs
2:06:22
Speaker 2: to be pushed up and pushed up and pushed up.
2:06:24
Speaker 2: And it's like it's this thing where there are a
2:06:27
Speaker 2: few guys every year. Ben Rice is I think the
2:06:30
Speaker 2: prime example of that this year, where everyone's like, I'm
2:06:33
Speaker 2: gonna be the one that gets him. And the problem
2:06:35
Speaker 2: with arms races is if nobody backs down, Okay, you're
2:06:40
Speaker 2: only gonna push one spot ahead this time. But if
2:06:44
Speaker 2: everybody pushes one spot ahead, you end up with Ben
2:06:46
Speaker 2: Rice in the fourth round and Nolan McClain almost as
2:06:49
Speaker 2: a top one hundred pick. I like Nolan McLain. I
2:06:52
Speaker 2: think he's awesome. I think he's got some like Zach
2:06:54
Speaker 2: Wheeler traits in terms of the presence of multiple fastballs
2:06:58
Speaker 2: at deep arsenal good command. But it's clear he pitched
2:07:03
Speaker 2: over his head at the major league level last season
2:07:05
Speaker 2: like that. That just that goes without saying. And we
2:07:08
Speaker 2: are smart enough as a fantasy baseball world to know
2:07:10
Speaker 2: that Paul Schemes is the only guy that if he
2:07:14
Speaker 2: puts up a two six ERA as a rookie, that
2:07:16
Speaker 2: might be real. Nolan McLain is not a two six
2:07:19
Speaker 2: YRA pitcher. We all know that. But he did that,
2:07:23
Speaker 2: and so I guess we I don't like. I don't
2:07:26
Speaker 2: understand what the how we got to this point where
2:07:29
Speaker 2: Nolan mclan is getting pushed so so far ahead of
2:07:32
Speaker 2: everyone else in that tier.
2:07:34
Speaker 3: I like him.
2:07:34
Speaker 2: I think he's good. I think he the The control
2:07:37
Speaker 2: that he showed at the major league level was a
2:07:39
Speaker 2: big outlier based compared to his minor League record as
2:07:43
Speaker 2: walk rate was eight and a half percent. I think
2:07:44
Speaker 2: in the minors it was like eleven or twelve percent.
2:07:47
Speaker 2: I think he's a good but not great strikeout pitcher.
2:07:52
Speaker 2: I think the best case scenario is a like Logan
2:07:56
Speaker 2: Web outcome, except without the two hundred innings. And I
2:08:01
Speaker 2: just don't think that's the kind of guy that where
2:08:04
Speaker 2: we typically get super excited for. I think there's this
2:08:07
Speaker 2: assumption that al McLain has like ace ace upside, and
2:08:11
Speaker 2: I just I don't know if I see that. I
2:08:15
Speaker 2: don't know, Maybe I'm on an island on that one.
2:08:19
Speaker 1: No, I think it's fair. I mean it is a
2:08:21
Speaker 1: lot to put on his shoulders. And I mean if
2:08:23
Speaker 1: you even look at the the projections, I mean, honestly,
2:08:26
Speaker 1: they're not that different from David Peterson when you kind
2:08:29
Speaker 1: of punch it all in that it is.
2:08:30
Speaker 2: I think there is.
2:08:31
Speaker 1: Also like a New York hype bubble with it too,
2:08:34
Speaker 1: that like the Yankees get this and the Mets get
2:08:36
Speaker 1: this nowadays.
2:08:37
Speaker 2: But camp Schiller's forty picks cheaper, which is if you
2:08:41
Speaker 2: if you want to get the big the big city guy,
2:08:43
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, camp Schiller's one forty point one or one
2:08:47
Speaker 2: forty point nine in ADP right now, Yeah, thirty seven
2:08:49
Speaker 2: picks later. It's the I think it's because he ended.
2:08:52
Speaker 1: On that eleven strikeout game, which I mean he gave
2:08:55
Speaker 1: up three bombs and five runs on that. But like
2:08:57
Speaker 1: part of it too is I'm looking at his scheduled
2:08:59
Speaker 1: down the stretch like it was not a hard schedule
2:09:03
Speaker 1: as part of it too, like it's gonna be gauntlet
2:09:06
Speaker 1: working through the NL East during the year, And I
2:09:08
Speaker 1: think that's something to keep in mind with Nolan McLain.
2:09:11
Speaker 1: So I don't think you're on an island. It's just
2:09:13
Speaker 1: it's absurd that he's going as high as he is.
2:09:15
Speaker 1: I think in drafts, what do you think, prou.
2:09:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think what it comes down to. And I'm
2:09:20
Speaker 3: seeing this with a few other guys. I think this
2:09:22
Speaker 3: happens like Ben Rice, and it's gonna happen to others
2:09:25
Speaker 3: where we as fantasy writers and analysts, we pick these
2:09:30
Speaker 3: guys out before like ADP comes out and goes like, man, this,
2:09:33
Speaker 3: look at this guy. He's gonna be really good, and
2:09:34
Speaker 3: the ADP comes out and we kind of forget that,
2:09:37
Speaker 3: like you actually have to readjust And I think that
2:09:39
Speaker 3: happens with like a guy like Noel McLain is, like, man,
2:09:41
Speaker 3: he should be a value because he should be going
2:09:43
Speaker 3: that high, only had so many innings, and you know
2:09:46
Speaker 3: he's showed some growth, so this should be a really
2:09:48
Speaker 3: good valuable pick. And then he comes out, everybody thinks
2:09:51
Speaker 3: he should be really good valuable pick. Everybody keep trying
2:09:52
Speaker 3: to want up each other so they find the next thing.
2:09:54
Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, we're talking about this
2:09:56
Speaker 3: guy that's inside one hundred ADP and it's like, it
2:09:58
Speaker 3: doesn't make any sense. Why why will McClean over Jacob Mizerowski, Like, yeah,
2:10:03
Speaker 3: I get Mizerowski's arm might fall off on every other pitch,
2:10:05
Speaker 3: but like from a dominant perspective, he looks way way
2:10:09
Speaker 3: more dominant.
2:10:10
Speaker 2: So Chase Burns same thing he turns at four starts
2:10:14
Speaker 2: in a five start stretch with ten strikeouts.
2:10:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, go into the season and try to draft three
2:10:19
Speaker 3: or four of those guys, like ignore the top of
2:10:21
Speaker 3: it and just pick them, and you'll be entirely happy
2:10:23
Speaker 3: because one of them is gonna break out, two are
2:10:25
Speaker 3: gonna be fine, and another's gonna fall apart, and you're
2:10:27
Speaker 3: gonna end up right the same way as if you
2:10:29
Speaker 3: try to draft an ace and tink around, so it's
2:10:31
Speaker 3: it's just him getting blasted up there. I think as
2:10:34
Speaker 3: the folks going like, I think this is gonna be
2:10:36
Speaker 3: a good deal, and then forgetting to look actually at
2:10:38
Speaker 3: the dealer getting.
2:10:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, and so I think we can
2:10:42
Speaker 1: make it official. John Hayman did tweet, I think that
2:10:45
Speaker 1: Freddy Pralta to the Mets is a thing. So it's
2:10:47
Speaker 1: kind of funny that I was doing that intro. That's
2:10:49
Speaker 1: maybe exactly when David Stearns is like, we need to
2:10:52
Speaker 1: pull the trigger here to really put the cap on
2:10:54
Speaker 1: this off season. But we don't know the return for
2:10:57
Speaker 1: the Brewers. But Freddy Pralta is going.
2:10:59
Speaker 2: To the Mets. He's making eight million dollars. It's so
2:11:01
Speaker 2: stupid that they're trading him. Yeah, it really is.
2:11:04
Speaker 3: But there's not a more Brewers thing to do. Let's
2:11:07
Speaker 3: be very very clear about that. Like as soon as
2:11:10
Speaker 3: they find it's something that's like a good value, they're like,
2:11:12
Speaker 3: we gotta capitalize on this. I don't care who it is.
2:11:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, uh, brew Freddy Peralta is eligible here for yourself.
2:11:18
Speaker 2: But where are you gonna go?
2:11:20
Speaker 3: I mean, I kind of want to just want up
2:11:22
Speaker 3: Chris and say, Freddy Peralta, now it is official, but
2:11:26
Speaker 3: I'm not going to I'm I'm gonna go and it's
2:11:28
Speaker 3: it's not even really the ADPs like really high, but
2:11:31
Speaker 3: I'm gonna sell Ry Polanco here. I just I just
2:11:34
Speaker 3: don't get it. Like, you know, he he had you know,
2:11:37
Speaker 3: I don't say his career year, but he had a
2:11:39
Speaker 3: good year for Seattle. But this is the guy that
2:11:41
Speaker 3: came off with the last three seasons where he barely
2:11:44
Speaker 3: you know, got through double uh double into the double digits.
2:11:47
Speaker 3: From home run perspective, he hasn't played more one hundred
2:11:49
Speaker 3: and forty games for five years, Like, what what do
2:11:52
Speaker 3: we expect that he's gonna go do in New York?
2:11:55
Speaker 3: He's gonna be the same guy that you're like, do
2:11:56
Speaker 3: I want to roster him? Do I want to not?
2:11:58
Speaker 3: Doesn't really run, He's kind of streaky, strike out a lot.
2:12:02
Speaker 3: Somehow last year he didn't like we think that's gonna
2:12:04
Speaker 3: magically stick. I it just doesn't feel like it's again.
2:12:07
Speaker 3: I feel like I say this with a lot myselves.
2:12:09
Speaker 3: It's not worth the headache to me because I can
2:12:12
Speaker 3: look at this and say, like he's just gonna regress
2:12:14
Speaker 3: to the mean of where he's been, and if I'm wrong,
2:12:17
Speaker 3: I'm completely okay with it because it's hornplanco playing first
2:12:20
Speaker 3: base with the Mets, and there's another dozen guys that
2:12:24
Speaker 3: are gonna hit like two forty two fifty twenty homers
2:12:28
Speaker 3: and the plot around first base, so it just doesn't
2:12:31
Speaker 3: feel like it's worth dipping the toes.
2:12:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's all very fair. I mean, it's
2:12:37
Speaker 1: the price seems to be increasing a little bit too,
2:12:39
Speaker 1: with a little bit of the Mets stacks, and I
2:12:41
Speaker 1: think people are also trying to pre empt the first
2:12:44
Speaker 1: base eligibility is gonna pick up. But I think that's
2:12:46
Speaker 1: all very fair. I am gonna pick one of the
2:12:49
Speaker 1: new acquisitions for myself. I'm selling Loise Robert Junior. It's
2:12:53
Speaker 1: I mean, the EEDP right now is that one thirty.
2:12:56
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be top one hundred by the
2:12:58
Speaker 1: time we get to the end of draft season. Just
2:13:01
Speaker 1: become some of this metsype. But I mean, he's not
2:13:05
Speaker 1: gonna be hitting above the eight hole, I think in
2:13:07
Speaker 1: this order, which I think is fair given his current
2:13:10
Speaker 1: skill set and just like his inability to know what
2:13:15
Speaker 1: the strike zone is I know, a little bit as
2:13:17
Speaker 1: driven by what the White Sox hitting approach has been
2:13:20
Speaker 1: over the years, but I kind of also am worried
2:13:22
Speaker 1: that he's just fundamentally broken the way that the Socks
2:13:25
Speaker 1: fundamentally broke Eloy Jimenez. And it's just like there's so
2:13:30
Speaker 1: much development that he missed out on with the White
2:13:33
Speaker 1: Sox that Robert it's gonna be really tough for him
2:13:35
Speaker 1: to develop that plate discipline in being able to just
2:13:39
Speaker 1: like not roll over every slider that he sees. And
2:13:43
Speaker 1: maybe it's a little bit of a bias, you know,
2:13:45
Speaker 1: being here in Chicago and seeing a lot of Luis
2:13:47
Speaker 1: Robert over the years, but it's just never a profile
2:13:51
Speaker 1: that I think is ever going to be put together.
2:13:53
Speaker 2: And fully work.
2:13:54
Speaker 1: And then you follow that up with the injury history.
2:13:57
Speaker 1: This dude is a soft tissue injury machine that like
2:14:01
Speaker 1: again a little of the bit of that as the
2:14:03
Speaker 1: White Sox, but not necessarily like the Mets have been
2:14:06
Speaker 1: traditionally great on that front. And I think it's just
2:14:09
Speaker 1: also who Luis Robert is that like you see, it's hamstrings,
2:14:13
Speaker 1: it's abductor's hips, it's a lot of the stuff that
2:14:17
Speaker 1: you're using in baseball, and then you add on I
2:14:21
Speaker 1: know this is a little bit of like a U
2:14:24
Speaker 1: quantifiable thing, but this is not strike me as a
2:14:28
Speaker 1: guy that will thrive in New York. He strikes me
2:14:31
Speaker 1: as somebody who you know, puts up a couple of
2:14:35
Speaker 1: bad games in a row, has a couple of bad
2:14:37
Speaker 1: strikeouts the boo Birds come out at City Field. I
2:14:40
Speaker 1: don't know if he's going to be able to fully
2:14:43
Speaker 1: recover from that. So I think he's gonna stick and
2:14:45
Speaker 1: play because the center field defense is elite. But I
2:14:49
Speaker 1: just don't think that you're gonna be seeing a lot
2:14:51
Speaker 1: of stolen bases from him because of the injuries. You're
2:14:55
Speaker 1: looking at a big backup and power in terms of
2:14:58
Speaker 1: the park, and so I I just don't really trust
2:15:01
Speaker 1: what Louis Robert's going to be giving you around that pick. It's,
2:15:04
Speaker 1: you know, a tenth roundish pick, and at that point,
2:15:07
Speaker 1: you still need something steady for your outfield, and I
2:15:11
Speaker 1: just don't think Louise Robert Junior is it.
2:15:13
Speaker 2: I'm really surprised at how much optimism I've seen around
2:15:15
Speaker 2: him after this trade, because over the past two seasons,
2:15:21
Speaker 2: Louise Robert and Tyrone Taylor have the same WRC. Plus
2:15:25
Speaker 2: it's like they have been the same guy the past
2:15:27
Speaker 2: two years. Really good defensively, horrible hitters. And Robert's obviously
2:15:32
Speaker 2: more talented, but given the amount of injuries he's had,
2:15:37
Speaker 2: I'm surprised that there isn't more skepticism around him, especially
2:15:42
Speaker 2: I don't know, like him and O'Neil Cruz are shockingly
2:15:46
Speaker 2: expensive in drafts, and it's like you don't need still
2:15:50
Speaker 2: on bases that badly anymore, you know, like that they're
2:15:52
Speaker 2: easy to find, and that's all those guys really have
2:15:55
Speaker 2: given you the past couple of years. So I'm very
2:15:59
Speaker 2: surprised at the optimism I've seen around Louise Robert lately.
2:16:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, and past two years you combine it to eighty
2:16:06
Speaker 1: eight opp so if you're an opp league, brutal on
2:16:09
Speaker 1: Luise Robert also, past two years combined six sixty ohps.
2:16:13
Speaker 1: So getting to that Jeff Zimmerman six to fifty line
2:16:15
Speaker 1: pretty quickly, so Robert. So that's why I'm putting the
2:16:18
Speaker 1: flags up on him. All right, Let's get to those
2:16:21
Speaker 1: division winners from last year. The Philadelphia Phillies went ninety
2:16:24
Speaker 1: six and sixty six last year brought back a lot
2:16:27
Speaker 1: of the gang. As you know, Kyle Schwarber and JT.
2:16:30
Speaker 1: Real Mutel have reupped with the team, but they have
2:16:32
Speaker 1: also added a Doulas Garcia into right field, and you're
2:16:37
Speaker 1: looking at the back end of a rotation that might
2:16:39
Speaker 1: be featuring their number one prospect and Andrew Painter, and
2:16:43
Speaker 1: otherwise it seems like they're pretty much just rolling it
2:16:46
Speaker 1: back from what they put up last year at those
2:16:48
Speaker 1: ninety six wins. So lots of intriguing pieces here, lots
2:16:52
Speaker 1: of guys going all across the board in drafts.
2:16:55
Speaker 2: So, Chris, who's your buye from the Philadelphia Phillies. I'm
2:17:00
Speaker 2: gonna go with Justin Crawford.
2:17:02
Speaker 3: Who is.
2:17:05
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't want to say underrated by
2:17:08
Speaker 2: traditional prospect measures, because the limitations in his game are
2:17:12
Speaker 2: extremely real. He is a he makes a lot of contact,
2:17:19
Speaker 2: but doesn't make a lot of good contact. Even though
2:17:21
Speaker 2: he hits the ball hard, it's a lot of ground.
2:17:24
Speaker 2: It's like a sixty percent ground ball rate. There's very
2:17:26
Speaker 2: little power here. He's probably not a center fielder, even
2:17:30
Speaker 2: though he's a premium athlete. And so that's a narrow
2:17:34
Speaker 2: path to walk in real life value, like, you're not
2:17:37
Speaker 2: gonna add a lot of defensive value, you're lacking in power,
2:17:41
Speaker 2: you're kind of a slap hitter. I get why he's
2:17:45
Speaker 2: undervalued or valued the way he is in real life
2:17:47
Speaker 2: prospect rankings. But for fantasy this profile could be really,
2:17:52
Speaker 2: really good because he's coming off a season at Triple
2:17:56
Speaker 2: A as a twenty one year old where he played
2:17:58
Speaker 2: in one hundred and twelve games, seven homers, Okay, that's
2:18:01
Speaker 2: that's not great, forty six stolen bases, he hit three
2:18:04
Speaker 2: thirty four walked eleven percent of the time, And you
2:18:08
Speaker 2: can say, yeah, that's a four h seven babbitt, and
2:18:11
Speaker 2: sure he's not going to have a four hundred babbitt
2:18:13
Speaker 2: at the major league level. Twenty twenty four he had
2:18:15
Speaker 2: a three seventy five babbit. Yeah. Twenty twenty three he
2:18:18
Speaker 2: had a four h four babbit. Twenty twenty two he
2:18:20
Speaker 2: had a three twenty six babbitt. So his worst babbitt
2:18:22
Speaker 2: as a professional is three twenty six. This feels like
2:18:25
Speaker 2: a guy who is absolutely going to be a Babbitt standout.
2:18:28
Speaker 2: He hits the ball hard despite not really having a
2:18:30
Speaker 2: lot of power eighty nine point eight percent mile power
2:18:34
Speaker 2: average exon velocity won eleven max ev forty one percent
2:18:37
Speaker 2: hard hit rate, Like it's at least average raw power.
2:18:40
Speaker 2: It's just like I said, fifty nine percent ground ball rate.
2:18:43
Speaker 2: So there's not going to be a lot of over
2:18:44
Speaker 2: the fence power. But I think he's gonna hit for
2:18:47
Speaker 2: batting average. I think he's going to steal a bunch
2:18:48
Speaker 2: of bases. I think he's basically locked into a lineup
2:18:51
Speaker 2: spot for the Phillies. I think Justin Crawford, I mean,
2:18:54
Speaker 2: we talked about Xavier Edwards. Why pay one hundred and
2:18:59
Speaker 2: seventy pick for Xavier Edwards when I can get Justin
2:19:02
Speaker 2: Crawford outside of the top three hundred Right now.
2:19:05
Speaker 3: I was gonna say the exact same thing, like, Yeah,
2:19:07
Speaker 3: is Justin Crawford not what we hope Xavier Edwards is?
2:19:11
Speaker 3: Like that feels like it, and we're paying the inverse
2:19:14
Speaker 3: prices here doesn't make sense?
2:19:16
Speaker 2: Yep. I think Justin Crawford properly rated as a real
2:19:21
Speaker 2: life prospect, very underrated as a fancy prospect, and Dave
2:19:26
Speaker 2: Dombrowski has already said he's a starter for them. Things
2:19:29
Speaker 2: would have to go really wrong for him in spring
2:19:32
Speaker 2: training for Justin Crawford not to be starting in the
2:19:35
Speaker 2: opening day lineup for the Phillies, So I think he's
2:19:39
Speaker 2: super undervalued right now. I love it.
2:19:42
Speaker 1: Great pick, all right, brew, who are you going with
2:19:44
Speaker 1: per year by.
2:19:45
Speaker 2: From the Phillies.
2:19:46
Speaker 3: I am going very very deep on this one, and
2:19:48
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say it was the fact that we're
2:19:50
Speaker 3: gonna have two autos as far as guys that we
2:19:53
Speaker 3: called out in this podcast, only two, only two in
2:19:57
Speaker 3: the league. And you could probably use your your analysis
2:19:59
Speaker 3: earlier for Auto Lopez for Auto Kemp because it's kind
2:20:02
Speaker 3: of the same profiles. Is like middling guy. To be clear,
2:20:06
Speaker 3: he doesn't have a projected starting spot, but he's gonna
2:20:09
Speaker 3: play a heck of a lot because he can play
2:20:11
Speaker 3: pretty much anywhere. And that Phillies lineup is not short
2:20:15
Speaker 3: of guys that like to get hurt, and so there's
2:20:18
Speaker 3: gonna be a spot they do not like Alec Boham,
2:20:20
Speaker 3: for I would say, I don't know what reason, multiple reasons,
2:20:24
Speaker 3: and so he's gonna get a lot of playing time.
2:20:27
Speaker 3: And I think this is a guy that easily backs
2:20:29
Speaker 3: into a fifteen to fifteen season and could conceivably hit
2:20:32
Speaker 3: two seventy doing that just because he gets these like
2:20:35
Speaker 3: volume of you know, starts. He starts five or six
2:20:38
Speaker 3: days a week. Probably not your ideal guy for a
2:20:41
Speaker 3: weekly by any means, but a guy that can get
2:20:44
Speaker 3: dirt cheap, like you don't even have to draft the guy.
2:20:46
Speaker 3: Nobody's thinking about him. But he has hit every spot
2:20:49
Speaker 3: that he has been in the minors. He hit, you know,
2:20:52
Speaker 3: relatively well just last year. I mean, there's some growing
2:20:55
Speaker 3: pains for sure, but I really think auto kemp here
2:20:58
Speaker 3: is gonna be a prize for folks and it's not
2:21:01
Speaker 3: gonna cost you anything. So this is my utility knife
2:21:04
Speaker 3: for twenty twenty six.
2:21:07
Speaker 2: Yep.
2:21:07
Speaker 1: I think this is great because I think, like you said,
2:21:09
Speaker 1: Alec Bohm is not long for this lineup. And if
2:21:12
Speaker 1: they're in a dogfight with the Mets for the for
2:21:14
Speaker 1: the division, Alec Boom with a league average WRC plus
2:21:19
Speaker 1: and a below average glove is not going to cut
2:21:21
Speaker 1: it at third base for the Phillies. They're gonna need
2:21:23
Speaker 1: a little bit more juice than that. So a great
2:21:25
Speaker 1: call up, and you're right, very free much right now.
2:21:29
Speaker 2: He's an average p ADP of six.
2:21:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I'm gonna go a little bit more towards
2:21:37
Speaker 1: the high end. So I'm going with Bryce Harper as
2:21:40
Speaker 1: my buye. He's currently ADP Round fifty five. Part of
2:21:43
Speaker 1: it is first Base is awful. It is rough this year, Chris.
2:21:50
Speaker 1: I know, you guys just did like You're first and
2:21:52
Speaker 1: third base preview this week and it drops off real quick.
2:21:57
Speaker 1: So there's that fact locking it in. And on top
2:22:00
Speaker 1: of it, you're not having to worry about like if
2:22:03
Speaker 1: you take Bryce Harper, it's not Pete Alonso in a
2:22:05
Speaker 1: new spot in Baltimore with a huge contracts sitting.
2:22:09
Speaker 2: Over his head.
2:22:10
Speaker 1: You're not having to deal with aging Freddy Freeman. I
2:22:13
Speaker 1: just like what Bryce Harper can put up. And on
2:22:16
Speaker 1: top of it, I think it really got lost in
2:22:18
Speaker 1: the shuffle how badly that risk.
2:22:21
Speaker 2: Was bothering him throughout twenty twenty five.
2:22:24
Speaker 1: He still posted throughout it the best that he could.
2:22:26
Speaker 1: I mean, he did have to go on the IL
2:22:29
Speaker 1: a couple of times for it, and so just once
2:22:33
Speaker 1: actually in June for a stretch, but still was able
2:22:36
Speaker 1: to put up twenty seven homers and twelve stolen bases,
2:22:39
Speaker 1: which was the most that he put up since twenty
2:22:41
Speaker 1: twenty one. So he found ways to still be productive
2:22:44
Speaker 1: put up a one thirty one WRC plus I think
2:22:48
Speaker 1: you're looking at back into mid thirties Homers. I got
2:22:51
Speaker 1: two seventy five average and ten stolen bases again from
2:22:54
Speaker 1: Harper and right in the middle of this really big
2:22:58
Speaker 1: Phillies lineup, and I mean when you kind of punch
2:23:01
Speaker 1: that all in, I think it's even kind of being
2:23:03
Speaker 1: picked up in our Player Raider, because I was gonna say,
2:23:06
Speaker 1: I think it's higher.
2:23:07
Speaker 2: Than the fifty five. Is that now?
2:23:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now in the Rasbell Player Raider for projections
2:23:11
Speaker 1: on twenty twenty six thirty ninth overall, and so that's
2:23:16
Speaker 1: a one round difference, but I think that is a
2:23:19
Speaker 1: big difference, and you're gonna be able to find value
2:23:21
Speaker 1: in Harper taking him around earlier than I think most
2:23:25
Speaker 1: folks are right now. And I think that, like I said,
2:23:28
Speaker 1: that risk injury really got lost in the shuffle because
2:23:30
Speaker 1: it didn't really stand out as a major surgery, major break,
2:23:34
Speaker 1: major sprain.
2:23:35
Speaker 2: It was just inflammation. But that is tough for a
2:23:38
Speaker 2: batterer to overcome. The Friday Pearl to deal is official.
2:23:43
Speaker 3: There we go. It's pricey.
2:23:46
Speaker 2: The Brewers definitely have a type. They acquired the five
2:23:50
Speaker 2: foot seven Jet Williams as well as Brandon Sproute and
2:23:55
Speaker 2: the Met's got Freddy Pearlton, Tobias Myers.
2:23:58
Speaker 1: Wow, okay, right yeah, Durman short King, I'm gonna have
2:24:02
Speaker 1: a little bit of a partner there.
2:24:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, that is quite the little deal.
2:24:07
Speaker 1: Okay, we will too bad we're not doing en No
2:24:09
Speaker 1: Central a little bit too, because then we could get
2:24:11
Speaker 1: into some of those buys as well. But let's get
2:24:13
Speaker 1: into the sales here, Chris, who's yourself for the Phillies?
2:24:19
Speaker 2: I think it's Kyle Schwarber. It's mine too, And it's
2:24:23
Speaker 2: nothing wrong with Kyle Schwarber. It's just don't pay for
2:24:30
Speaker 2: the thirty thirty year old coming off a career year,
2:24:34
Speaker 2: you know, like you're not paying full price. He was
2:24:36
Speaker 2: the number seven player last year in Rodo. His ADP
2:24:40
Speaker 2: is around twenty four, so in that regard, I guess
2:24:42
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of a discount. But this is
2:24:46
Speaker 2: a guy who historically has been fifty in eightyp Where
2:24:53
Speaker 2: was he a year ago? Sixty nine? I just don't
2:24:57
Speaker 2: think Kyle Schwarber is a fundamentally different guy than he
2:24:59
Speaker 2: was a year go, And that is what this price
2:25:02
Speaker 2: is suggesting, and look, you have to respond to the
2:25:06
Speaker 2: most recent season. I understand that you can't just keep
2:25:10
Speaker 2: your rankings the same every year. We learned new information
2:25:12
Speaker 2: every year, but in this case, I just don't really
2:25:16
Speaker 2: think we learned anything new about Kyles Shwarper. I think
2:25:18
Speaker 2: we saw a career year, which happens. Everybody has a
2:25:21
Speaker 2: career year at some point. He's not going to match
2:25:26
Speaker 2: what he did last season. He's a definite drag on
2:25:29
Speaker 2: your batting average. Not as big as he was a
2:25:32
Speaker 2: couple years ago when he was hitting like two hundred,
2:25:33
Speaker 2: but he's not gonna help He's one of the few
2:25:36
Speaker 2: players in this range of the draft that won't help
2:25:38
Speaker 2: you in batting average. And he's used till only. So
2:25:44
Speaker 2: it's not even that Kyle Schwarber is a bad pick necessarily,
2:25:48
Speaker 2: but making him your second round pick it really narrows
2:25:53
Speaker 2: the paths you can take through the rest of your draft.
2:25:57
Speaker 2: Like if you hit a point where the best player
2:26:01
Speaker 2: on your board is util only, sorry, you can't take them.
2:26:05
Speaker 2: I mean you can, you have bench spots, but you
2:26:07
Speaker 2: run the risk of not being able to use a
2:26:09
Speaker 2: John Carlos Stanton or whoever you take or even like
2:26:13
Speaker 2: I love Von Herrera and I hope he's catching early
2:26:16
Speaker 2: on for the Cora Cardinals, but it's entirely possible that
2:26:20
Speaker 2: he takes a month to gain catch eligibility. And if
2:26:23
Speaker 2: you take Kyle Shwarber, that means you definitely cannot use
2:26:26
Speaker 2: Yvon Herrera, whose price is rising. So not getting a
2:26:33
Speaker 2: lot of steels, not getting any batting average help, and
2:26:36
Speaker 2: locking in your util spot in the second round is
2:26:39
Speaker 2: just it's a real slim It leaves you with a
2:26:43
Speaker 2: real slim margin for error in building the rest of
2:26:46
Speaker 2: your team in a way that I just don't I
2:26:48
Speaker 2: don't love even if obviously Kyle Schwarber it's awesome and I'd.
2:26:51
Speaker 1: Be happy to have him on my team in a vacuum. Yep,
2:26:55
Speaker 1: I totally agree. That's all the reasons that I was
2:26:57
Speaker 1: with you on this being a cell. That second round
2:27:01
Speaker 1: is so rich that like where he's going is you're
2:27:05
Speaker 1: you need him to hit fifty five bombs again, and
2:27:08
Speaker 1: like that's.
2:27:11
Speaker 2: Which is awesome. Yeah, Like it's unlikely to be a
2:27:14
Speaker 2: bad pick. I just don't think it's a good pick. Yeah,
2:27:18
Speaker 2: I totally agree.
2:27:19
Speaker 3: I had him as a top fiftiest hitter almost all
2:27:21
Speaker 3: year last year, and finally moved him up towards the
2:27:24
Speaker 3: end of the year because I was just getting lambasted
2:27:26
Speaker 3: pretty much every week, so I just got worn down.
2:27:28
Speaker 3: But it's the same argument, like he just he does
2:27:31
Speaker 3: what he does really really well, but he doesn't bring
2:27:34
Speaker 3: everything else to the to the to the plate. So
2:27:36
Speaker 3: add that to the restrictions from an eligibility perspective, it's tough.
2:27:39
Speaker 3: I didn't he was not my pick, but he would
2:27:42
Speaker 3: like top contender from my pick, I just somebody else
2:27:44
Speaker 3: I like less, which which is probably saying something because
2:27:47
Speaker 3: I'm right there with you guys.
2:27:48
Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, well brew give us that pick.
2:27:51
Speaker 1: Who do you like less than Kyle Schwarber.
2:27:54
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna go with Hayesus Lozardo here, and not
2:27:57
Speaker 3: because Hazu Lozardo is not talented, because the same zat
2:28:00
Speaker 3: Spencer Schwellenbach conversation we had earlier and his with Lozardo
2:28:05
Speaker 3: is going is a top seventy pick overall, that's a
2:28:09
Speaker 3: top twenty starting pitcher. That's a mid number two for
2:28:12
Speaker 3: a guy that I'm pretty sure that arms just held
2:28:15
Speaker 3: on by a little duct table bailing wire and like
2:28:19
Speaker 3: he could absolutely be amazing, But he had one hundred
2:28:22
Speaker 3: and eighty three two thirds innings last year, and I
2:28:27
Speaker 3: cannot imagine a scenario where he gets anywhere near that
2:28:31
Speaker 3: this coming year. Like he is just a walking injury
2:28:34
Speaker 3: waiting to happen, doesn't have the bill to really stand
2:28:38
Speaker 3: up to a full major league season. And I'm just
2:28:41
Speaker 3: concerned that we got the very best of Hises' Lozardo
2:28:45
Speaker 3: and somehow he's snooked by on the health perspective. And
2:28:49
Speaker 3: if you're paying for that as a number two Mann,
2:28:52
Speaker 3: you have so many other options of guys that you can,
2:28:55
Speaker 3: like book for one hundred and eighty innings, almost two
2:28:58
Speaker 3: hundred innings, Like give me Yo, Ryan, give me somebody
2:29:01
Speaker 3: like that who's going later in the draft. I I
2:29:04
Speaker 3: agree with you guys a costs warbar. But like I
2:29:05
Speaker 3: looked at Tho, I'm like, what are we doing? Like
2:29:08
Speaker 3: it's kind of like the Norman Claiming discussion.
2:29:11
Speaker 2: I love the talent, Like I think he's an elite
2:29:15
Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher. I think the three ninety two year right
2:29:17
Speaker 2: last year was just fake, Like it was just those
2:29:19
Speaker 2: two starts. Yeah, so I think he's really good, but
2:29:25
Speaker 2: there is no track record of multiple consecutive seasons in
2:29:28
Speaker 2: a row of health from Hayesus Lizardo and from a
2:29:32
Speaker 2: performance perspective, it's a really really slim margin for error
2:29:37
Speaker 2: because he is like, if he's averaging ninety six with
2:29:41
Speaker 2: his fastball, he's good. If he's averaging ninety five with
2:29:44
Speaker 2: his fastball, he's terrible, and there's like no in between.
2:29:47
Speaker 2: It's really like because he's got he gets no extension
2:29:50
Speaker 2: on his fastball, and the traits, like the physical traits
2:29:53
Speaker 2: aren't very good. So it's basically like he needs premium
2:29:57
Speaker 2: velocity to get by with his fastball. If he doesn't
2:30:01
Speaker 2: have premium velocity, it gets crushed.
2:30:02
Speaker 3: So I.
2:30:05
Speaker 2: I can justify the pick. I'm probably not going to
2:30:09
Speaker 2: make it, though.
2:30:10
Speaker 3: And I think you know, you forget he's twenty eight
2:30:12
Speaker 3: years old right now. It doesn't feel like he should be,
2:30:15
Speaker 3: Like he's been in the league for a whole long time.
2:30:18
Speaker 3: He made his debut at twenty nineteen, like he's he's
2:30:21
Speaker 3: been doing this and finally we kind of got a
2:30:23
Speaker 3: year that shows like, yeah, it was worth all the
2:30:25
Speaker 3: weight repeat I'm betting against it.
2:30:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think what I'm also coming away
2:30:31
Speaker 1: with is I don't like a lot of the pictures
2:30:33
Speaker 1: that are going kind of in that twel m Bach
2:30:36
Speaker 1: slash Lozardo range that like, I would much rather keep
2:30:40
Speaker 1: hitting hitters right there and wait for some of the
2:30:43
Speaker 1: guys that are going more as like number three's to
2:30:46
Speaker 1: be able to be my number two.
2:30:47
Speaker 2: We've talked a lot about it on FBT, but I
2:30:49
Speaker 2: think kind of even like I don't know, SP twenty
2:30:55
Speaker 2: to SB forty, maybe fifty, I just like there's not
2:31:01
Speaker 2: a lot separating all those dudes. So this is very
2:31:06
Speaker 2: much a year where I've experimented with pocket aces. I
2:31:09
Speaker 2: did it in one mock draft. I didn't quite love it,
2:31:11
Speaker 2: but I think it's you can do it. But I
2:31:15
Speaker 2: definitely don't want to be shopping in the like eighty
2:31:19
Speaker 2: to one hundred and twenty range of the draft because
2:31:22
Speaker 2: I think that's where you kind of fall. And this
2:31:26
Speaker 2: historically has been true from the data from the research
2:31:29
Speaker 2: that I've done, Pictures in the first like three or
2:31:32
Speaker 2: four rounds tend to be very good values. And then
2:31:36
Speaker 2: the difference between the average picture picked in the fifth
2:31:38
Speaker 2: round in ADP and the average picture picked in like
2:31:40
Speaker 2: the ninth round in ADP is almost nothing Yeah, like,
2:31:44
Speaker 2: we are really bad at ranking pictures in that range,
2:31:48
Speaker 2: and so it's it's very much like, based on the
2:31:51
Speaker 2: history of Fantasy Baseball, that's actually probably the worst range
2:31:56
Speaker 2: you can work in at starting pitchers. So makes sense
2:31:59
Speaker 2: that we're very uncomfortable with a lot of those guys.
2:32:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, that definitely locks in. Okay, let's get into our
2:32:06
Speaker 1: last team and last and very least here, the Washington Nationals,
2:32:11
Speaker 1: who went sixty six and ninety six last year. Honestly,
2:32:14
Speaker 1: I think this team, unless they're gonna this would also
2:32:17
Speaker 1: be another splending spot, maybe for like a Paul Goldschmid
2:32:20
Speaker 1: or something. But this pitching staff is brutal. Going to
2:32:23
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, it's gonna be Rockies White Sox level.
2:32:27
Speaker 1: I think of toughness, and currently the ADP show it
2:32:30
Speaker 1: because there's only four players from the Nationals going in
2:32:34
Speaker 1: the top two hundred of ADP for a draft right now,
2:32:36
Speaker 1: and that's James wood c j Abrams, Dylan Cruz, Mackenzie Gore,
2:32:41
Speaker 1: Dylan Dalen Lyles just on the edge there, but on
2:32:44
Speaker 1: the outside looking in. And so it's gonna be a
2:32:49
Speaker 1: trying season in Washington for these Nationals. I think and
2:32:52
Speaker 1: maybe even a couple more years as things are pretty
2:32:56
Speaker 1: bleak in the actual like system as well. So you know,
2:33:02
Speaker 1: they've had high picks, but they haven't always been coming through.
2:33:05
Speaker 1: Have made a few trades, you know, they got rid
2:33:07
Speaker 1: of Jake Bennett, swapped him for Louis Parles, and then
2:33:11
Speaker 1: you know, otherwise it's a lot of the same guys
2:33:14
Speaker 1: they had last year, So not a lot of changes
2:33:17
Speaker 1: from that sixty six win team. Also not a lot
2:33:19
Speaker 1: of choices for buys and cells, but we'll find some here. Chris,
2:33:23
Speaker 1: who are you gonna go with for your By.
2:33:25
Speaker 2: God help me? I love Kenzie Gore. I think he
2:33:29
Speaker 2: is so talented, and I just want to keep betting
2:33:34
Speaker 2: on a guy with this much obvious talent, even though
2:33:38
Speaker 2: it keeps blowing up in my face. Like the last
2:33:42
Speaker 2: two aprils, I think I have written a looks like
2:33:44
Speaker 2: Mackenzie Gore is figuring it out. He might be an
2:33:46
Speaker 2: ace article. And then last year he sustained it for
2:33:49
Speaker 2: a couple months, but it ended up falling apart and
2:33:52
Speaker 2: he ended up with worse numbers than the year before.
2:33:54
Speaker 2: But Mackenzie Gore is one of There was a point
2:34:00
Speaker 2: last year where he was the only pitcher with four
2:34:03
Speaker 2: pitches within above average with rate for their pitch type.
2:34:07
Speaker 2: I think the four seamer ended up being right around average,
2:34:10
Speaker 2: but the four seamer or the curveball, the slider, and
2:34:12
Speaker 2: change up all were above average with pitches and actually
2:34:15
Speaker 2: the cutter also had a forty one rate, So there
2:34:21
Speaker 2: is just so much swinging this potential here. I hope
2:34:24
Speaker 2: he gets traded. I think it's very much a change
2:34:26
Speaker 2: of scenery guy, where he just gets different voices in
2:34:29
Speaker 2: his head and can take off. But the biggest issue
2:34:34
Speaker 2: has never been the good starts. It's always sustaining that
2:34:38
Speaker 2: and avoiding the bad starts. The upside the talent is
2:34:42
Speaker 2: clearly here, terrible defense behind him. I'm shocked that the
2:34:48
Speaker 2: Nationals are still just apparently going with CJ. Abrams as
2:34:53
Speaker 2: their shortstop again because he is a terrible defensive shortstop.
2:34:57
Speaker 2: It doesn't really make sense. Like he's so athletic, he
2:34:59
Speaker 2: should be good, but he's really bad and they're okay
2:35:03
Speaker 2: with that, and I think that holds back their pitching staff,
2:35:05
Speaker 2: and Mackenzie Gore is a big part of that. But man,
2:35:09
Speaker 2: you miss bats the way he can, and you show
2:35:11
Speaker 2: the kind of upside he does, and I only have
2:35:14
Speaker 2: to spend around the two hundredth pick to see if
2:35:18
Speaker 2: maybe this is the year he figures it out. I'm
2:35:20
Speaker 2: gonna do that every time. And now that there's no
2:35:23
Speaker 2: there's no downside. Really, like any starting pitcher you draft
2:35:27
Speaker 2: around two hundred, there's a you're probably not dropping them immediately,
2:35:33
Speaker 2: but that's not a must start pitcher. You're not drafting
2:35:36
Speaker 2: Shane Baws expecting him to be a must start pitcher
2:35:38
Speaker 2: or Aaron Nola. I would say Chris Bubitch, you probably should,
2:35:43
Speaker 2: but I think he's just super undervalue. But like that's
2:35:46
Speaker 2: the range we're talking about with Mackenzie Gore. Here, no
2:35:49
Speaker 2: no sure things that you're passing on, So you might
2:35:52
Speaker 2: as well get a guy who has huge upside if
2:35:55
Speaker 2: it ever comes together for him.
2:35:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think those are all that's all fair. It's
2:36:00
Speaker 1: a it's honestly one of the last strikeout pictures, like
2:36:04
Speaker 1: double digit k nine strikeout pictures you can kind of
2:36:07
Speaker 1: pick up. And so when you also add in the trade,
2:36:11
Speaker 1: I think is a big factor here gets him out
2:36:14
Speaker 1: of the hottest months of Washington when that park plays
2:36:17
Speaker 1: really bandboxy, And so if he does get moved at
2:36:21
Speaker 1: the deadline, you know, up arrow for sure on Mackenzie Gore.
2:36:25
Speaker 1: So I like this by brutill chance he gets traded
2:36:28
Speaker 1: before the season too, exactly. Yeah, So that would honestly
2:36:32
Speaker 1: shoot things through the roof. Like if he goes especially
2:36:35
Speaker 1: somewhere like really attractive like Houston or San Francisco or
2:36:38
Speaker 1: you know, a really good team, you can then bank
2:36:41
Speaker 1: more than whatever six to eight wins the Nationals are
2:36:44
Speaker 1: gonna give him, you know, brew where are you gonna go?
2:36:49
Speaker 3: Oh, Pickens with thin That's that's absolutely for sure. So
2:36:52
Speaker 3: i don't feel great about anything here, but I'm going
2:36:55
Speaker 3: to go with Harry Ford is my bye here. We're
2:36:59
Speaker 3: talking about he ran around the four hundred range, and
2:37:03
Speaker 3: this is as much of a demigration of keibert Ruiz
2:37:06
Speaker 3: as it is a plus on Harry Ford. I think
2:37:09
Speaker 3: Harry Ford's kind of your diet Augustin Ramirez to a degree.
2:37:12
Speaker 3: He didn't run as much last year, and the miners
2:37:14
Speaker 3: with Seattle before you know, the trade, But I think
2:37:20
Speaker 3: he's that's really more of just protecting an asset than
2:37:25
Speaker 3: anything else. And he's very athletic for for a catcher,
2:37:29
Speaker 3: and I think he's fitting that kind of that new
2:37:31
Speaker 3: wave of athletic catcher that we're bringing through. And so
2:37:34
Speaker 3: I think there's not there's not a non zero chance
2:37:37
Speaker 3: here that he's in, you know, the winning day lineup
2:37:41
Speaker 3: and really did something in the spring training to make
2:37:43
Speaker 3: it look amazing. And this is a guy that you
2:37:46
Speaker 3: could see, hey a fifteen fifteen, fifteen twenty type of season.
2:37:51
Speaker 3: And so I like Harry Ford. You know, I think
2:37:53
Speaker 3: that he kind of the shine of him came off
2:37:56
Speaker 3: a little bit in Seattle than trade, but I think
2:38:00
Speaker 3: he couldn't have landed in a better spot because he
2:38:02
Speaker 3: could get an opportunity to play. So yeah, denegration of
2:38:07
Speaker 3: Keeper Rubies, you know, positive on Harry Ford. I'm not
2:38:09
Speaker 3: sure which one it is for me here, but at
2:38:11
Speaker 3: this price, like, this is a guy that I'm going
2:38:13
Speaker 3: to take a flyer on, and if I'm wrong, I'm
2:38:15
Speaker 3: cutting them and picking up Keeper. Actually I could pick
2:38:18
Speaker 3: up Keeper Rubies at any point in time, but you
2:38:20
Speaker 3: go in somewhere else. So I think Harry Ford is
2:38:22
Speaker 3: gonna price some people this year.
2:38:25
Speaker 2: I think that is all very fair. I like it.
2:38:27
Speaker 1: So my buye it's even later than what you guys
2:38:31
Speaker 1: are looking at. So it's around pick four seventy five,
2:38:33
Speaker 1: I'm looking at third basement Brady House. So again this
2:38:37
Speaker 1: kind of gets back to the conversation about corner infield
2:38:39
Speaker 1: in general just kind of being brutal. And that is
2:38:43
Speaker 1: such a late pick. You're pretty much getting Brady House
2:38:46
Speaker 1: for free. But I just don't see how the Nationals
2:38:48
Speaker 1: don't install him as the starting third baseman the entire season.
2:38:52
Speaker 1: You know, they are in a rebuilding phase. They spend
2:38:55
Speaker 1: a first round pick on Brady House. He's a good defender,
2:38:59
Speaker 1: so like the defense is going to play in day
2:39:01
Speaker 1: and day out, and I think they're just going to
2:39:03
Speaker 1: let him figure it out at the plate. And even
2:39:05
Speaker 1: what he put up last year, I liked that he
2:39:09
Speaker 1: didn't completely fall apart.
2:39:10
Speaker 2: This is the type of guy you know. Campb with
2:39:12
Speaker 2: was twenty two.
2:39:13
Speaker 1: The strikeouts were a little bit of a worry, but
2:39:16
Speaker 1: he kept it below thirty percent. He showed good bat speed, which.
2:39:19
Speaker 2: Is really huge that you know.
2:39:20
Speaker 1: It's it's a slightly above average bat speed, And I
2:39:24
Speaker 1: think all the projections are just too low on them.
2:39:26
Speaker 1: All of them are giving him a bround one hundred
2:39:28
Speaker 1: and twenty two games, five hundred of bats. This is
2:39:31
Speaker 1: gonna be sink or swim, Like Brady House is either
2:39:33
Speaker 1: playing one hundred and sixty games for the Nationals or
2:39:36
Speaker 1: he's going to play forty in the beginning of the
2:39:39
Speaker 1: spring fall apart and gets it back done to Triple
2:39:41
Speaker 1: A at pick four seventy five. If he gets into
2:39:44
Speaker 1: that worst case scenario where he gets sent back to
2:39:46
Speaker 1: Triple A, you cut. So yeah, I think all those
2:39:50
Speaker 1: things that up to you're looking at Brady House being
2:39:53
Speaker 1: able to put up. It's also non zero speed. He
2:39:55
Speaker 1: put up five stole on base in the seventy other games.
2:39:58
Speaker 1: I think you're looking at somebody who could be pop
2:40:00
Speaker 1: in like twenty two homers stealing eightish bags. And then
2:40:04
Speaker 1: I mean the runs in RBIs are gonna be tough
2:40:07
Speaker 1: because it's the Nationals. But if you're in a draft
2:40:10
Speaker 1: that it's deep enough that Brady House makes sense at
2:40:13
Speaker 1: a pick four seventy five and you just need somebody
2:40:15
Speaker 1: who's gonna be a corner infielder day and day out,
2:40:19
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a great shot. And all
2:40:21
Speaker 1: of that is said with I mean there's upside here.
2:40:23
Speaker 1: You look at his prospects of vant Page from Triple A.
2:40:26
Speaker 1: He put up a better barrel rate, he put up
2:40:27
Speaker 1: a better hard hit rate. If he figures out major
2:40:30
Speaker 1: league pitching, you could be looking at a guy who
2:40:32
Speaker 1: does turn into like a Matt Chapman like player I
2:40:36
Speaker 1: think at third base for the Nationals. All right, let's
2:40:40
Speaker 1: get into these cells these I think this one's gonna
2:40:43
Speaker 1: be either we're all gonna have like the same one
2:40:45
Speaker 1: because there's only like a few players to sell, or
2:40:47
Speaker 1: we're gonna be totally flummixed here. So, Chris, who's yourself?
2:40:52
Speaker 2: I thought about James Wood just because the second half
2:40:54
Speaker 2: was so scary, like untenable, not a major league caliber player,
2:41:02
Speaker 2: kind of scary. Forty percent strikeout rate after the All
2:41:05
Speaker 2: Star break last year, I don't care what else you do,
2:41:08
Speaker 2: Like that's just that doesn't work. And then the fact
2:41:11
Speaker 2: that he didn't steal as many bases as expected last
2:41:14
Speaker 2: season makes me wonder if this is going to be
2:41:17
Speaker 2: as useful for fantasy as we thought it was. But
2:41:20
Speaker 2: he's still so young, he's still so talented, he's still
2:41:23
Speaker 2: so unoptimized that it's like, man, if he really does
2:41:27
Speaker 2: start lifting the ball and hitting it to the poll
2:41:29
Speaker 2: side more often, you're talking about forty five Homers fairly
2:41:34
Speaker 2: easily for James Woods. So I don't want to look
2:41:37
Speaker 2: that dumb, especially for a guy that has more than
2:41:40
Speaker 2: held his own through two years in the majors, right Like,
2:41:42
Speaker 2: it's not like he's been overwhelmed, as opposed to Dylan Cruz,
2:41:47
Speaker 2: who I don't want to give up on. And I
2:41:49
Speaker 2: think one thing that should be noted in any discussion
2:41:52
Speaker 2: about the Nationals is they completely cleared house in terms
2:41:56
Speaker 2: of their leadership. They hired, like, I think, a bunch
2:41:58
Speaker 2: of dudes who are younger than like a bunch of
2:42:00
Speaker 2: kids in their thirties. Like they got a whole they
2:42:04
Speaker 2: got a whole millennial front office and coaching staff, like
2:42:07
Speaker 2: they're all like watching The New Girl, and they were.
2:42:09
Speaker 2: They were all really into the lumineers in college like that.
2:42:12
Speaker 2: That's that's the age group we're talking about for everybody there.
2:42:15
Speaker 2: And I point all that out just to say, one,
2:42:20
Speaker 2: I wanted to get a joke in about the lumineers,
2:42:22
Speaker 2: but two, that's okay, that's that's that was me. That's
2:42:27
Speaker 2: that I'm making fun of. But two, it's just that
2:42:30
Speaker 2: a lot of things could change for the Nationals, right
2:42:32
Speaker 2: like just getting some more competent voices in the organization
2:42:39
Speaker 2: could help unlock all these super talented guys who just
2:42:43
Speaker 2: are not anywhere close to finish products. And so that's
2:42:47
Speaker 2: why it gives me a little bit of concern to
2:42:51
Speaker 2: be as down on Dylan Cruise as I am, because
2:42:53
Speaker 2: I was a really big fan of him last year.
2:42:55
Speaker 2: But what does Dylan Cruise do well at the major
2:43:03
Speaker 2: league level right now? Like we are, it's only I
2:43:05
Speaker 2: don't know, one hundred and twenty one hundred and sixteen
2:43:07
Speaker 2: games into his career, so it's not a very large
2:43:10
Speaker 2: sample set, but we are parts of two seasons in
2:43:14
Speaker 2: and you really can't point to anything that he does
2:43:17
Speaker 2: at an above average rate. I guess Steele bases. He
2:43:19
Speaker 2: has twenty nine and one hundred and sixteen games. That's awesome.
2:43:23
Speaker 2: Everything else, and I'm talking the surface level number six
2:43:26
Speaker 2: thirty four ohps. But then you look at the underlying stuff.
2:43:29
Speaker 2: He doesn't hit the ball hard thirty nine percent hard
2:43:32
Speaker 2: hit rate last season eighty nine point seven mile prior
2:43:35
Speaker 2: average ex of Velossie. That's right, dead on average barrel rate,
2:43:38
Speaker 2: dead on average played discipline not very good. He chases
2:43:42
Speaker 2: more than average, He whiffs a lot more than average.
2:43:48
Speaker 2: I wish I had something. Besides, he's young, and he
2:43:51
Speaker 2: was the number two pick in the draft two point
2:43:53
Speaker 2: two because even his minor league track record was not
2:43:58
Speaker 2: very impressive. It was like low eight hundred zero is
2:44:00
Speaker 2: in the high miners, and we were just like, it
2:44:02
Speaker 2: doesn't matter. It's like twenty games sample sizes. He's super talented.
2:44:04
Speaker 2: I'll figure it out. And it's like, well, maybe the
2:44:07
Speaker 2: minor league track record being so mediocre was the signal,
2:44:13
Speaker 2: and we just ignored it and gave him the benefit
2:44:15
Speaker 2: of doubt. And now we're one hundred and sixteen games
2:44:17
Speaker 2: into his major league career, which again is not very much,
2:44:20
Speaker 2: but it's not nothing. And I just don't have anything
2:44:24
Speaker 2: I can point to that Dylan Cruz does at an
2:44:28
Speaker 2: even an above average, not even plus or good or whatever.
2:44:32
Speaker 2: Work just slight, like fifty first percentile. He doesn't really
2:44:36
Speaker 2: have a single skill that he has shown at the
2:44:38
Speaker 2: major league level that is fifty first percentile. That is
2:44:42
Speaker 2: really scary. Yeah, for a guy who's one hundred and
2:44:45
Speaker 2: sixtieth in draft, still like still like you got to
2:44:50
Speaker 2: count on him to start.
2:44:52
Speaker 3: That scares me.
2:44:54
Speaker 1: I thought about him as as myself for all those reasons. Yeah,
2:44:57
Speaker 1: you're essentially used the number two pick to get lane time.
2:45:00
Speaker 2: It's back.
2:45:01
Speaker 3: It's what the Nationals did.
2:45:02
Speaker 1: And honestly, there's a case that like, if it doesn't work,
2:45:07
Speaker 1: they send him back to triple A. For what you
2:45:09
Speaker 1: were saying, like Dylan Cruz never showed mastery of triple
2:45:14
Speaker 1: A and barely double A if he if you even
2:45:18
Speaker 1: count A one to twenty eight, WRC plus's mastering double A.
2:45:21
Speaker 1: So he's so young that I wouldn't be surprised if
2:45:25
Speaker 1: the regime, the new regime says, hey, like Dylan, you've
2:45:28
Speaker 1: got stuff to work on, or send me a triple
2:45:30
Speaker 1: A to round it out. So I think that's a
2:45:33
Speaker 1: good call. Brew where are you at for yourself?
2:45:36
Speaker 3: Well, we know all this podcast that I have zero
2:45:39
Speaker 3: problem being the village idiot. It's Chris reference. So yes,
2:45:42
Speaker 3: I am going to sell James would because I just
2:45:45
Speaker 3: I can't look past it, like I can't look past it,
2:45:49
Speaker 3: and I think the icy on the cake from me
2:45:51
Speaker 3: is that, Look, I actually look at the way that
2:45:53
Speaker 3: the first thirty forty picks are kind of going this
2:45:57
Speaker 3: year with ADP is it it almost feels like you
2:46:01
Speaker 3: have to kind of go with a power speed guy
2:46:03
Speaker 3: at the beginning, a power bat in the second round,
2:46:06
Speaker 3: and then an ace in the third round is kind
2:46:08
Speaker 3: of like what's lining up for me? And I don't
2:46:11
Speaker 3: feel good about James Wood in any of that, and
2:46:15
Speaker 3: the fact that he just was so so dreadful in
2:46:18
Speaker 3: that second half. I'm like, I don't want to be reaching.
2:46:22
Speaker 3: I will one hundred percent be you know, wrong on
2:46:25
Speaker 3: this one, and I'm okay with that, but it is
2:46:28
Speaker 3: just so hard to invest in the guy that looked
2:46:31
Speaker 3: is so supremely talented but then looks so supremely lost
2:46:35
Speaker 3: at the plate. I do think there's hope. I think
2:46:38
Speaker 3: there's a ton of development opportunities so young. I feel
2:46:41
Speaker 3: like we've said this for many many guys, you just
2:46:43
Speaker 3: got to lift the ball a little bit, But there's
2:46:45
Speaker 3: been so many guys in the past you say that
2:46:47
Speaker 3: and they just never figure it out. I think he's
2:46:50
Speaker 3: a guy that eventually will, but I just how dreadful
2:46:55
Speaker 3: he was in that second half. I just can't overlook
2:46:58
Speaker 3: it for a top three round pick and look myself
2:47:01
Speaker 3: in the mirror later when he just does it again.
2:47:04
Speaker 3: And I'm just dealing with this so I'm selling James Wood.
2:47:07
Speaker 3: I still think he's supremely talented. I think he could
2:47:10
Speaker 3: be a league winner for somebody. Right, That's that's you know,
2:47:13
Speaker 3: that's the kind of strategy where you just go risk, risk, risk,
2:47:17
Speaker 3: and if you hit, you win. I just I'm not
2:47:19
Speaker 3: that guy. I just can't play that that risk game.
2:47:21
Speaker 3: So Chris did a great job expousing all the reasons
2:47:24
Speaker 3: I'm selling, So I'm just gonna leave it there because
2:47:27
Speaker 3: I'm fine, like I said, being a villagity on this podcast.
2:47:30
Speaker 1: Yeah you uh, you might get fired by Gray and
2:47:34
Speaker 1: Rudy because currently he's a number twenty two on our
2:47:36
Speaker 1: Player Raider for twenty twenty.
2:47:38
Speaker 3: Six, which go back to the Aldebertal modesty days when
2:47:42
Speaker 3: I sold him so much and Gray bought him so badly,
2:47:47
Speaker 3: and I'm still I'm still beating on his door about
2:47:50
Speaker 3: how right I was in that one. So I can't
2:47:53
Speaker 3: it can't. I still got one up on him. Don't
2:47:55
Speaker 3: fire me.
2:47:56
Speaker 1: Great, Well, I'm gonna sell the third national that everybody
2:48:00
Speaker 1: actually knows. I'm selling CJ. Abrams, who's currently going pick
2:48:03
Speaker 1: fifty five, mostly because, like I mean, I think that's
2:48:08
Speaker 1: the Player Raider for twenty twenty five clocked him in
2:48:11
Speaker 1: more like eighty ish ninety ish, And I mean, honestly,
2:48:16
Speaker 1: what he did last year is who he is. He's
2:48:18
Speaker 1: a two fifty hitter with thirty stolen bases, twenty homers,
2:48:23
Speaker 1: and then the runs in RBI aren't going to be
2:48:26
Speaker 1: there because he plays for the Washington Nationals. That is
2:48:29
Speaker 1: not the fifty fifth overall pick. To be able to
2:48:32
Speaker 1: get back to that, you're really counting on cg Abrams
2:48:35
Speaker 1: refinding that forty seven stolen base level from twenty twenty three.
2:48:39
Speaker 1: I don't think it's coming back between towers, which you
2:48:42
Speaker 1: said about just the defense being absolutely garbage. You could
2:48:47
Speaker 1: see that, like if that's discouraging their young pitchers, they
2:48:51
Speaker 1: figure out a way to get cg Abrams, you know,
2:48:54
Speaker 1: a little bit of a break from shortstop, and then
2:48:56
Speaker 1: he's in a mix or a platoon or situation or something,
2:49:00
Speaker 1: and then he just doesn't walk enough to be able
2:49:03
Speaker 1: to get to a stolen base level of forty five
2:49:06
Speaker 1: plus for me, And at the end of the day,
2:49:08
Speaker 1: like he plays brew You've always been into this too,
2:49:13
Speaker 1: where guys who just kind of play with a little
2:49:15
Speaker 1: bit of like too much aggression the way that Abrams
2:49:19
Speaker 1: can do on the base pass. These guys can get
2:49:22
Speaker 1: banged up, and so he's avoided injury so far. Like
2:49:24
Speaker 1: obviously the twenty twenty four games were down because of
2:49:27
Speaker 1: that suspension after the Casino trip, but the and actually
2:49:32
Speaker 1: last year he had an abductor strain too in his hips,
2:49:35
Speaker 1: So like it's it's there. I think there's a lot
2:49:39
Speaker 1: of risk in this profile. I don't mind the overall profile.
2:49:41
Speaker 1: It actually reminds me a little bit of what we
2:49:44
Speaker 1: were talking about when we were thinking about Michael Harris,
2:49:48
Speaker 1: for like the difference between dynasty and redraft leagues. I
2:49:51
Speaker 1: don't mind c Jer Abrams if you're in a dynasty
2:49:53
Speaker 1: keeper league and he's your shortstop right now and like
2:49:55
Speaker 1: you've got him at a decent price and you can
2:49:58
Speaker 1: use him going forward.
2:49:59
Speaker 2: But in in a redraft league.
2:50:01
Speaker 1: I do not want to be paying up for that
2:50:03
Speaker 1: type of level for CJ. Abrams when you can be
2:50:06
Speaker 1: getting much better picks that are just much more solid
2:50:09
Speaker 1: in that range. For where he's going right now.
2:50:12
Speaker 2: We just keep getting these flashes from him though that
2:50:15
Speaker 2: make it's kind of like James Wood where I can
2:50:19
Speaker 2: totally see how I c J. Abrams just locks in
2:50:21
Speaker 2: a little bit. He could really put together a really
2:50:25
Speaker 2: like a twenty five thirty five to eighty kind of season,
2:50:28
Speaker 2: Like he has these moments. I remember specifically they were
2:50:32
Speaker 2: playing in San Francisco early on last year and he
2:50:35
Speaker 2: hit one into the water. I'm pretty sure, And it's like,
2:50:37
Speaker 2: that's that's pretty impressive for a guy who's not a
2:50:40
Speaker 2: power hitter. Like the physical tools are really good for
2:50:45
Speaker 2: CJ Abrams. Another one where it just tools versus skills, right,
2:50:49
Speaker 2: Like the tools are great, the skills are still they
2:50:53
Speaker 2: could use some ironing, I guess, and I don't know.
2:51:01
Speaker 2: I I never want to be fully out on a
2:51:03
Speaker 2: player like CJ Abrams when they're only twenty five, because
2:51:06
Speaker 2: it could go, you know, like what we've seen Jazz
2:51:10
Speaker 2: Chisholm that comes since he got to the Yankees. I
2:51:12
Speaker 2: could see that kind of outcome for CJ Abrams. He's
2:51:16
Speaker 2: just not there yet.
2:51:19
Speaker 3: Well, I think cooly you you called it. There's the
2:51:21
Speaker 3: intangible like CJ Abrams on a scale scale of like
2:51:25
Speaker 3: Clubhouse Genius to Tommy Fam right, is closer to Tommy Fam. Like,
2:51:29
Speaker 3: if you're looking for top ten guys, if I get
2:51:31
Speaker 3: arrested during the season. I think CJ. Abrams is probably
2:51:34
Speaker 3: in that list, and so like maybe it's you know,
2:51:38
Speaker 3: you guys will build your fancy rusters differently at clubhouse
2:51:40
Speaker 3: culture means a lot to me. But like, I think
2:51:44
Speaker 3: there's just this maturity aspect of CJ Abrams that chris
2:51:48
Speaker 3: to your point, like if he just locked in man
2:51:51
Speaker 3: the sky's limit. I just I don't know he wants
2:51:54
Speaker 3: to lock in. I just the maturity also hasn't come through,
2:51:58
Speaker 3: and that that's definitely concerned. And if that, I don't
2:52:02
Speaker 3: know that Washington is the space for him.
2:52:06
Speaker 2: You know what I would love, though, Let's move that
2:52:08
Speaker 2: guy to second base, gain some second base eligibility. I
2:52:11
Speaker 2: would love to pay the fifty fifth pick for him
2:52:13
Speaker 2: at second base. That'd be great, that would be nice.
2:52:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, and who knows, there's nobody else around there? Yeah,
2:52:19
Speaker 1: who knows this millennial coaching staff is maybe about to
2:52:22
Speaker 1: find the vibe with these younger players and unlock all
2:52:25
Speaker 1: of them and make all of ourselves look So that's
2:52:30
Speaker 1: totally in the cards.
2:52:31
Speaker 2: I'm ready.
2:52:31
Speaker 3: We just sold like the entire like draftable range of
2:52:37
Speaker 3: Washington Nationals besides Mackenzie Gore so.
2:52:40
Speaker 1: All right, well that's gonna wrap us up here for
2:52:42
Speaker 1: the nalyast. Chris, thanks again for joining us. It's been
2:52:46
Speaker 1: a blast talking the analyst with you and all your
2:52:49
Speaker 1: insights from CBS Sports and being a Marlins fan and
2:52:52
Speaker 1: just kind of all your connections within the just ins
2:52:57
Speaker 1: and outs of all of these players. So let everybody
2:53:01
Speaker 1: know once again where they can find you. Reach you
2:53:03
Speaker 1: on socials, reach your work, as we write on out here, Yeah, at.
2:53:07
Speaker 2: CP Towers On any given social media well I think
2:53:10
Speaker 2: there's only like three that I use, but at CP
2:53:13
Speaker 2: Towers would be the way. Primarily posting on Blue Sky
2:53:16
Speaker 2: these days. Cbssports dot com slash newsletters to subscribe to
2:53:21
Speaker 2: the Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter, which I think is pretty good.
2:53:25
Speaker 2: It's free. It's going to go out two or three
2:53:27
Speaker 2: times a week for the next couple of weeks. By
2:53:29
Speaker 2: the time we get to spring training, it'll be four
2:53:31
Speaker 2: or five times a week until October. It's really it's exhausting.
2:53:36
Speaker 2: And the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on CBS Sports. Subscribe
2:53:40
Speaker 2: to the YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Baseball Today.
2:53:43
Speaker 2: We're trying to get to forty thousand subscribers. By opening day,
2:53:46
Speaker 2: forty k.
2:53:46
Speaker 1: By opening day nice, which you guys at right now, I.
2:53:50
Speaker 2: Think it's like thirty four or something like that. So
2:53:52
Speaker 2: we got a ways to go. We got a ways
2:53:53
Speaker 2: to go. We're just getting kicked off for preseason, so
2:53:56
Speaker 2: I think I have faith in you can make it.
2:53:58
Speaker 2: So we made up up a similar gap last year
2:54:01
Speaker 2: to get to thirty. So we're nice. We're hoping there's
2:54:04
Speaker 2: still some low hanging fruit left.
2:54:06
Speaker 1: All right, brew let everybody know where they can find
2:54:09
Speaker 1: you and read your work.
2:54:11
Speaker 3: Yep, find me and Jay Brewer one seven, Twitter, ex,
2:54:13
Speaker 3: Blue Sky, all of those I'm there, find me Rasball
2:54:17
Speaker 3: on the weekends hitter profiles at top one hundred hitters.
2:54:20
Speaker 3: We are in opening week of off season covers really
2:54:24
Speaker 3: getting the full swing here, so you'll probably hear about
2:54:26
Speaker 3: a few of these guys if you want to read
2:54:28
Speaker 3: this weekend, we're going to jump into some of the
2:54:29
Speaker 3: deep sleepers kicking off on Sunday, So come out to
2:54:32
Speaker 3: ras Ball. Tell me where I'm wrong, all right? Where
2:54:35
Speaker 3: folks find you?
2:54:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can find me on Blue Sky at M
2:54:39
Speaker 1: cool seven cou il L for the cool spelled like
2:54:44
Speaker 1: my last name, and I'm not writing yet at Rasball,
2:54:47
Speaker 1: waiver wires don't start till the beginning of the season,
2:54:49
Speaker 1: so you're gonna have to wait for the written word
2:54:51
Speaker 1: for me until March. But you're gonna be able to
2:54:54
Speaker 1: find cards and categories there on Rasball as long as
2:54:58
Speaker 1: the season is going, we've got This is just our
2:55:01
Speaker 1: first preview, so we're going to be going through the
2:55:03
Speaker 1: rest of the divisions over the next few weeks, and
2:55:05
Speaker 1: we've got lots of great baseball card coverage coming up.
2:55:08
Speaker 1: You can find the podcast on Blue Sky at Cards Categories.
2:55:12
Speaker 1: You can email the podcast at cards Categories at gmail
2:55:15
Speaker 1: dot com. Look at those show notes. We've got links
2:55:18
Speaker 1: to lots of the stuff that we've talked about tonight,
2:55:21
Speaker 1: and you can also find a link to all the
2:55:23
Speaker 1: gear with cards and Categories logos emblazoned on it, some hats,
2:55:27
Speaker 1: some T shirts, baby onesie a mug.
2:55:30
Speaker 2: I know you want some.
2:55:31
Speaker 1: So the season's coming up. Get that hat with cards
2:55:34
Speaker 1: and categories on it. And with all that, we are
2:55:37
Speaker 1: going to wrap up for this week. We will be back,
2:55:40
Speaker 1: same time, same place next week. We're gonna be previewing
2:55:43
Speaker 1: the Ale East next week, so we'll see you then.