Latest / Best of Business / Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert on what Donald Trump's new tariffs mean for investors

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Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert on what Donald Trump's new tariffs mean for investors · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk ZEDB. Follow this
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  Speaker 2: Right now, it is time to have a look at
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  Speaker 2: Trump's tariffs. He's fired as shots on trade. All countries
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  Speaker 2: get ten percent, the EU cops twenty percent. Asia hit
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  Speaker 2: quite hard. Here are the numbers for you. China thirty
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  Speaker 2: four percent, Vietnam forty six percent, Taiwan gets thirty two,
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  Speaker 2: Japan twenty four, South Korea twenty five, Thailand thirty six,
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  Speaker 2: Indonesia thirty two, Malaysia twenty four, Cambodia forty nine. Sam
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  Speaker 2: Dicky is Fisher Funds. He's with US Hi Sam Good
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  Speaker 2: eating right now. The fact that Asia has been hit
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  Speaker 2: so hard, I mean that has implications for US given
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  Speaker 2: how much trade we do there. But in terms of
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  Speaker 2: market reaction today, that's where we've seen the biggest reaction,
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  Speaker 2: is it not?
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  Speaker 3: That's right?
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  Speaker 4: Well, sort of two to three percent falls in the
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  Speaker 4: US markets after close and Asian markets like you know,
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  Speaker 4: the neckeye in Japan three percent, Vietnam down sort of
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  Speaker 4: four or five percent, whereas Good on New Zealand as
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  Speaker 4: did flat on the day.
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  Speaker 2: And is this what you were expecting. Were you expecting
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  Speaker 2: them to be worse than this?
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  Speaker 4: No, I think I mean the market generally was expecting
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  Speaker 4: sort of a global tariff of twenty percent, and I
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  Speaker 4: think the market was expecting it to be more uniform.
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  Speaker 3: So the fact that it's a.
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  Speaker 4: Twenty nine percent weighted average tariff around the world is worse.
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  Speaker 4: And the fact that so non uniform was quite a
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  Speaker 4: surprise as well.
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  Speaker 2: So that's a good thing because the market's obviously, well,
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  Speaker 2: they were pricing in something bad happening over the last
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  Speaker 2: couple of weeks, weren't they. So is this is this
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  Speaker 2: sort of a bit of a sigh of relief.
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  Speaker 4: Well, I think when the big news event that everyone's
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  Speaker 4: expecting comes to pass, you do start to get some
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  Speaker 4: sign of relief. But to be clear, this was worse
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  Speaker 4: than expected. This is twenty nine percent versus twenty percent expected,
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  Speaker 4: despite the fact that markets have been weak, and as
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  Speaker 4: you said, it's been disproportionately negative to Asia, but especially
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  Speaker 4: Southeast Asia. You know, Vietnam, Cambodia, some of those countries
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  Speaker 4: have been hit with sort of forty five fifty percent tariffs.
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  Speaker 4: So that's definitely worse than expected, and that has flow
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  Speaker 4: on impacts as well, because there's a lot of product
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  Speaker 4: that is manufactured in those countries and a lot of
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  Speaker 4: product that's been diversified out of China. So people have
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  Speaker 4: been trying to diversify their supply chains away from China
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  Speaker 4: and they've chosen Southeast Asia as the next best option.
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  Speaker 2: Right, So this is actually, I mean, yeah interesting, And
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  Speaker 2: I was looking at Vietnam today. They I think it's
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  Speaker 2: about thirty percent of you know, more than one hundred
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  Speaker 2: billion dollars of what they produced goes to the United
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  Speaker 2: States and they've been hit with what was it forty
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  Speaker 2: six percent? I mean, that's that's for that kind of country.
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  Speaker 2: That's pretty crippling, isn't it.
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  Speaker 3: That's right.
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  Speaker 4: But I mean, you know, we had been here in
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  Speaker 4: the last few days that Vietnam had been feverishly trying to,
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  Speaker 4: you know, walk back some of the tariffs it had
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  Speaker 4: on US goods imported into its country.
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  Speaker 3: You hear to this, but I guess you know, too little,
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  Speaker 3: too late at this stage.
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  Speaker 4: But this is going to be critical to watch in
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  Speaker 4: the coming days and weeks, is do some of these
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  Speaker 4: countries back down reduce the tariffs on US imported goods,
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  Speaker 4: which will in turn allow the US to back down
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  Speaker 4: and lower the reciprocal tariffs.
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  Speaker 2: Now, let's talk about some New Zealand stocks for example,
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  Speaker 2: I mean the likes of Fisher and Pike or what
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  Speaker 2: happens with them. What did you any carve outs or
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  Speaker 2: workarounds for these types of businesses from what you heard today?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, Fish and Pocal Healthcare super interesting.
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  Speaker 4: Had a bit of a roller coaster day, down as
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  Speaker 4: much as seven percent at one stage, but encouraged, encouraging
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  Speaker 4: me finished up on the day, and a couple of
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  Speaker 4: reasons for that. The first is stock had been a
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  Speaker 4: bit soft running into this and anticipation. But much more importantly,
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  Speaker 4: while New Zealand was slapped with a ten percent tariff, Mexico,
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  Speaker 4: where FPH manufactures about sixty percent of the product that
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  Speaker 4: goes into the US, did not receive any incremental tariffs
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  Speaker 4: over and above the twenty five percent tariff it got earlier.
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  Speaker 4: But most importantly, the White House confirmed that products manufactured
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  Speaker 4: in Mexico that are compliant with the US Canada Mexico
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  Speaker 4: Trade Agreement will have zero tariffs, and almost all of
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  Speaker 4: fph's products and Mexico is compliant, so that was really
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  Speaker 4: important and I've got to say, you know, we've been
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  Speaker 4: looking at a lot of companies around the world today and
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  Speaker 4: how they've.
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  Speaker 3: Reacted to this and what they've said.
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  Speaker 4: It was an absolute breath of fresh air to see
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  Speaker 4: the clarity that if pH gave the stop market with
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  Speaker 4: their release, and that's quite rare globally.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well they would be one of the lucky ones,
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  Speaker 2: wouldn't they the lucky few?
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  Speaker 4: What is all of this, Well, not so much the
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  Speaker 4: lucky few, but it's just the clarity with which they
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  Speaker 4: put in that release and that gave the clarity to
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  Speaker 4: investors that that's quite rare.
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  Speaker 3: So I think that's right. And listen for other companies
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  Speaker 3: around the world.
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  Speaker 2: What does all of this mean for investors?
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  Speaker 4: Well, we're two from he I think is critical. So
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  Speaker 4: I always think, and this is a bit of a
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  Speaker 4: fraud exercise, is trying to understand why is Trump doing this?
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  Speaker 4: But if we take them at face value, it's important
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  Speaker 4: and it helps us begin to understand the in game.
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  Speaker 4: So ostensibly it is to reduce the persistent US trade deficits.
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  Speaker 4: It is to return manufacturing too the US, and it
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  Speaker 4: is to serve as a bargainingship to drive lower tariffs
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  Speaker 4: on US goods important into other countries. So if any
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  Speaker 4: of those things start happening, we could see an easing
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  Speaker 4: of this pretty draconian policy.
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  Speaker 3: So that's the first point.
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  Speaker 4: The second point is there's a bit of water to
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  Speaker 4: go into the bridge here that these tariffs weren't uniform
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  Speaker 4: and take Apple. Apple is a great case in point.
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  Speaker 4: It was down sort of seven percent after market, not
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  Speaker 4: only because it gets hit harder than expected on its
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  Speaker 4: manufacturing in China, but perversely it also gets hit harder
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  Speaker 4: than expected on the manufacturing it had moved to Southeast
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  Speaker 4: Asia and India to diversify away from China. So I
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  Speaker 4: think two points there. If we see those two things
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  Speaker 4: happen that Trump once, then we could see an easy
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  Speaker 4: of this policy. But secondly, there's a bit of a
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  Speaker 4: bit of uncertain water to go into the bridge for
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  Speaker 4: some of these companies where where they make decisions about
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  Speaker 4: where to manufacture in the future.
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  Speaker 2: Hope it doesn't last too long. Sam, Thank you very
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  Speaker 2: much for being with me tonight, Sam Dicky Film Fisher
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  Speaker 2: funds
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