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Episode 84 - 7/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:20
  Hello, and welcome to episode 84 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:26
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:29
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
• 0:38
  end. The weekend is upon us.
• 0:40
  We got a big slate of Major League Baseball here for tonight
• 0:43
  guys. I have a 5 pack of sweats that
• 0:45
  I'm excited to share with you, including four money lines and
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  one total. That's right, we don't bet too
• 0:51
  many totals. I'm like the Dos Equis guy.
• 0:52
  I don't always bet totals, but when I do, they scream at me
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  with a great low bets, higher dollars bet, split juice
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  movement, good weather, good matchups.
• 1:01
  Again, all these different variables come to play, but I
• 1:04
  did find a total late night total that we'll be sweating
• 1:07
  here tonight and you're welcome to join me.
• 1:09
  So A5 pack in MLA and then you know what Fridays are for.
• 1:13
  Some people like to say Saturdays are for the boys,
• 1:16
  Fridays are for the biting UFC plays.
• 1:19
  That's right. Got another fresh batch of data
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  as I look forward to every Friday morning for my buddy John
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  Ewing at Bet MGM. And I found one fighter or biter
• 1:28
  as a as we like to joke around that has a great sharp line
• 1:32
  move, has a fantastic low bets, higher dollars bet split, has a
• 1:36
  big youth advantage and has a bunch of other variables that we
• 1:39
  will get to in his in his favor here.
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  So I do have a bout for a here for UFC for tomorrow.
• 1:46
  So on today's pod 5 pack MLB and a UFC bet that we will share
• 1:50
  today for tomorrow. Now looking back toward
• 1:53
  yesterday, guys one and 1 -, 0.04 units.
• 1:57
  So basically a wash. Had a great winner with the New
• 1:59
  York Mets. They are down 1, nothing.
• 2:01
  Then they hit, it was a two run Homer by Lindor, 2 to one.
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  Then they coughed it up. It was two to two.
• 2:06
  They're able to eke it out in extra innings.
• 2:08
  There is a great couple breaks that went our way.
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  Ramon Lauriano, he got caught up in a pickle and got thrown out
• 2:16
  at third and then he overran the ball hit by Jeff McNeil to walk
• 2:20
  it off. So Lauriano helped us catch a
• 2:21
  bet, but the Mets came through, which was nice as a dog to pick
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  him. Sharp line move and then late
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  night couldn't get the angels. They got down early then they
• 2:30
  they had a 5 to 2 lead and they couldn't get anything going.
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  They got like the last six innings.
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  They didn't get a single hit. So that was a six to five loss
• 2:38
  unfortunately. But either way, guys grinding.
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  Let's see if we can finish off our week on a high note with a
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  winning Friday as we steam into the weekend.
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  So as we always like to do on the on the all systems go sports
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  betting pod powered by rhythm when it's baseball or when it's
• 2:53
  July, when it's the summertime, we bet baseball.
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  That's right. So let's talk MLB for tonight.
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  So first on the board for me, let's go to and again, all these
• 3:02
  games are late night. All these games are 8:00 or
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  later. So didn't see a ton for the 7:00
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  games, but we got a lot of late sweats here tonight.
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  So get ready. But if you're like me on the
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  East Coast, put on a pot of coffee drink.
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  I don't know a Mountain Dew, but we're going to be sweating all
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  night here. So let's get after it.
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  So first one here, Dodgers Houston.
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  This is a game that's going to be played in Houston. 8:10 PM
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  Eastern Time, first pitch. Remember, this was a World
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  Series match up here a couple years ago.
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  And there's a lot of bad blood still because all the cheating
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  scandals or maybe I don't know, that's faded a little bit
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  because they've now both won a World Series since that time.
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  But anyway, 8:10 PM Eastern Time tonight.
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  Dodgers are coming in 62 and 42. They just took three of four
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  from the Giants. They won yesterday's series
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  finale six to four as a -, 120 home favorite.
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  On the flip side, the Strohs, they started off pretty bad, but
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  they played pretty well last month or so.
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  They're 53 and 49. They did, however, just drop two
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  or three against the A's, but they avoided the sweep with A8
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  to one win in the finale. That was a -, 140 Rd. favorite
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  winner for Houston. So pitching match up here for
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  tonight. The Dodgers are going with ready
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  Gavin Stone. He's nine and three with a 3.19
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  ERA. The Stroh's meanwhile, are going
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  to counter with lefty Framber Valdez, who's eight and five
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  with a 3.63 ERA. So we've seen across the market
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  here. Well, this game open Houston, a
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  very short, very slight -115 home favorite dodgers around -1
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  O five and the public is saying, damn, you're giving me dodgers
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  basically a pick em price, a coin flip price with a better
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  record. Hey, take that all day, right?
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  You know the dodgers are typically laying -150 -, 200 or
• 4:38
  more. So you're getting them at minus
• 4:40
  one O 5 close to even money. Take it all day, right?
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  Well, the public is thinking that 61% of money line bets are
• 4:47
  on the dodgers. But what is the market doing?
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  The market is moving toward the Strokes.
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  That's why I like the strokes tonight.
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  I'm going Astros at -125 again, opening up is a very short -115
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  home favorite. Now the strokes are up to -125
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  SA 10 cent steam move in favor of Houston.
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  And again, that's notable because they're only getting
• 5:06
  around 40% of bets. If nearly 2/3 of bets on the
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  Dodgers didn't, shouldn't the line be moving for further
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  toward the Dodgers? No, it's going the other way in
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  favor of Houston. So dead giveaway here.
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  RLM reverse line move with the line betting a betting line
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  moving toward Houston, even though they're getting a
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  minority of bets. Also couple factors here to Lake
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  Houston want to be just classic interleague favorites.
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  So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
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  better team who's expected to win, but in particular,
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  interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous
• 5:36
  year. So interleague lack of
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  familiarity system match favorite.
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  You're expected to win and you made the playoffs last year.
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  You're probably still a pretty good team.
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  That system is 87 and 4864% with a 6% ROI this year.
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  Also, we have a little bit of a rest first tired advantage
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  because the Dodgers played in LA yesterday.
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  Now I have to travel to Texas. Not that long of a flight, but
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  it's an advantage to Houston because they were off yesterday,
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  so Houston had a day off of their feet.
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  Position players got a rest, their pitchers all got bumped
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  back an extra day. Rest first, tired in favor of
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  Houston. Also, if you look at Stone, the
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  starting pitcher for the Dodgers, he hasn't been great.
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  Like his numbers on the year look really good, nine and
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  three, 3.19 ERA. But in the month of July, he's
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  made three starts. He's got a 6.39 ERA.
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  He's giving up nine runs and 12.2 innings.
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  So I'm thinking, hey, this kid I think is only 25.
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  Is he hitting a wall here? Innings limit first.
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  You know, if you've never gone through a long season before,
• 6:33
  it's difficult. So maybe this is the time to bet
• 6:36
  against Stone and then put it the other way.
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  In Valdez's last five starts, the Astros are five and O Valdez
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  has a 2.89 ERA in three July starts.
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  He's only given up six runs in 18.2 when he's pitched.
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  But Long story short, guys, we open the Astros a very short
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  favorite. Public's taking the trendy dog
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  Dodgers yet Lions going further to the Strohs.
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  This is a play I'll make every day, every time in this
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  situation on Houston. So give me the Strohs.
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  Let's see if we can get a winner here with Houston.
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  I got Houston at -125 keep on cruising.
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  Next on the board here, let's go to middle America, Kansas City,
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  MO. That's right.
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  We're going to look at the Chicago Cubbies visiting the
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  Kansas City Royals and another interleague showdown.
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  So setting the stage here for this matchup, we have the Cubs
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  coming into this one with a record of 49 and 55.
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  The Cubs just lost two or three against Milwaukee.
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  Meanwhile, KC 56 and 47. They just lost two or three
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  against Arizona, But pitching match up here for tonight, we
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  have the Cubs going with Kyle Hendricks, who's two and eight
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  with a 6.69 ERA. He'll be opposed by Brady
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  Singer, who's 6:00 and 6:00 with an ERA of three.
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  What have you seen across the market here?
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  Well, some slight sneaky movement toward the Royals.
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  I'm going Royals here, guys. I got the Royals at -145 Royals
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  open as low as -135 - 140. Now they're up to -145 I see
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  some books closer to -150 So pretty much all movement and
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  liability has been in favor of Kansas City.
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  Now, going into this one, we have, let me just dial this up.
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  I just wanted to make sure yadda, yadda, yadda.
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  One second pulling up my bet splits here.
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  But we have the Royals getting 84% of bets, 91% of money.
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  So again, both the pro and Joe bet split lot of public as well
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  as respected sharp action with the line move in favor of Kansas
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  City. But in particular, I'm going to
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  bank on Kansas City's offense. They're hitting 250 on the year,
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  477 runs scored versus the Cubs only hitting 233 with 424 runs
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  scored. Interleague favorite would match
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  here on Kansas City. Also, if you look at another
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  kind of a rest first tired, but technically they're both the
• 8:48
  same. They both were had yesterday
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  off. But the system that we've come
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  to love both day off take the favorite very simple, but
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  typically the basically, even though you have the same amount
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  of rest that rest disproportionately benefits,
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  quote UN quote, the better team with the better players and the
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  better coaching staff that can can prepare against their
• 9:06
  opponent. So that system both they off
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  take the favorite pretty big sample.
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  It's 511 and three 2561% since 2020.
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  Also have some matchups here or system matches winning team
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  favorite after a loss, good favorite off a loss versus a bad
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  team. And then also did you guys know
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  the Kansas City Royals are the second best chalk team in
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  baseball? They are 30 and 14 on the year
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  when they're favored. That's a 68% win percentage, a
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  15% ROI. So when the Royals are favored,
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  they tend to come through the actually the only team that's
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  better than them when it comes to laying chalk is the Cleveland
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  Guardians and not by not by that much.
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  But keep on cruising a little more insight here into why
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  Kansas City again building the case to take the Royals here.
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  If you look at last 10 Kansas City six and four, their bats
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  are hitting 290. Last 10 Cubs four and six,
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  they're only hitting 237. Home Rd. splits also favor the
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  Kansas City Royals. They're 35 and 20 at home.
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  Cubs are only 22 and 30 on the road.
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  And Kyle Hendricks, he's had pretty rough year at home, 6.23
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  ERA. That sounds pretty bad right on
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  the road, seven point O 8. He's on the road tonight.
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  And if you look at Brady singer, hopefully he pitches well.
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  He's got a 2.49 ERA and four July starts on the road, 3.86
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  ERA at home 2.43. So he's been even better at
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  home. So you got it all up here, guys.
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  We got a little bit of line movement.
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  We got a bunch of good system matches.
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  We have some home Rd. splits in our favor and interleague
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  favorite lack of familiarity edge.
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  I'm going to go Kansas City Royals, I got the Royals at -145
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  keep on cruising. Another 815 showdown here
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  tonight. Washington Nationals visiting
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  the Saint Louis Cardinals now going to this one.
• 10:49
  The Nats are 47 and 56. Just got swept by the Padres,
• 10:53
  lost yesterday and also got no hit 3 nothing as a + 135 home
• 10:57
  dog. I had a lot of people say why
• 10:59
  didn't you? I just want to mention this, a
• 11:00
  lot of people are like, why didn't you bet against Patrick
• 11:02
  Corbin? You know, which continues to
• 11:04
  cash print money like crazy. Well, if you guys noticed that
• 11:07
  line actually opened, I want to say it was like Padres -180 got
• 11:11
  down to like -150 -, 160. So why move toward Washington?
• 11:15
  San Diego obviously won. But if anyone was wondering why
• 11:18
  I laid off and didn't didn't bet against Corbin, it's because if
• 11:21
  I see the line, you know, go against me, I'm not going to
• 11:23
  think I'm smarter than the books that maybe layoff.
• 11:26
  But again, if you bet against Corbin, Congrats, another winner
• 11:28
  yesterday. Anyway, match up here for
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  tonight. Cardinals coming in 53 and 49.
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  They just lost two or three against the Pirates.
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  They lost the finale 5 nothing as a -. 110 Rd. favorite
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  pitching matchup tonight hopefully favors St.
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  Louis. I am on the Cardinals at -165
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  but the Cardinals are coming out with Sonny Gray, the veteran
• 11:48
  righty. He's 10 and six with a 3.54 ERA.
• 11:52
  He'll be opposed by the Nats lefty Mackenzie Gore, who's six
• 11:55
  and eight with a 4.2 O ERA. What are we seeing across the
• 11:58
  market here? Well, some good sharp movement
• 12:00
  in favor of Saint Louis. That's why I am going with the
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  Cards. Saint Louis open around -150 now
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  they're up to -165 some shops even closer to -170 so about 15
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  or $0.20 of steam in favor of Saint Louis.
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  Now the Cardinals are getting around 80% of bets in dollars.
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  So both public and sharp support in their favor.
• 12:19
  Along with that steam move and a lot of system matches on Saint
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  Louis. One classic would be non
• 12:25
  division favorite. Lack of familiarity benefiting
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  quote UN quote. The better team also favorites
• 12:30
  getting $0.10 of steam or more playing a team who missed the
• 12:33
  playoffs the previous year. 177 and 10862 percent, 1% ROI.
• 12:39
  Rest first tired advantage Cardinals they were off
• 12:41
  yesterday Nationals hosted the Padres and now have to travel to
• 12:44
  Saint Louis. Saint Louis has classic
• 12:46
  correlative betting value told this one has fallen 8 down to
• 12:50
  seven and a half and it's also moved up toward the Cardinals.
• 12:52
  So it's always a good sign when Lions moving toward the favorite
• 12:56
  and the totals dropping. Correlative betting states that
• 12:59
  you know the basically the fewer amount of expected runs scored
• 13:02
  more likely to come from quote UN quote the better team was
• 13:04
  favored and also the pitching match up here.
• 13:06
  Mackenzie Gore 7.47 ERA in four July starts.
• 13:11
  He's giving up thirteen runs in 15.2 innings.
• 13:14
  Sonny Gray, the ageless wonder. 2.14 ERA at home versus 5.29 on
• 13:19
  the road. Cardinals are three and one
• 13:21
  against the Nats this season and Saint Louis is 26 and 22 at
• 13:24
  home. Washington 24 and 29 on the
• 13:27
  road. You add it all up though, guys,
• 13:29
  we got a good move towards Saint Louis favorite, low total non
• 13:32
  division favorite. I want to back Sonny Gray here.
• 13:34
  I got the Cardinals at -165 keep on cruising.
• 13:39
  I told you I had a total and here it is, Oakland, LA Angels.
• 13:43
  Now, I was watching that game last night.
• 13:45
  Obviously I was rooting for the Angels.
• 13:47
  But one thing I noticed is me and the Oakland A's, even though
• 13:50
  they don't have a very good record, they got a lot of young
• 13:52
  guys who can really hit the ball.
• 13:54
  It was the Butler, the lead off Guy Rooker's been great.
• 13:58
  I mean, this lineup is really mashing.
• 13:59
  I'm going to give you some stats here, how good they are in a
• 14:01
  second. But this one jumped out to me to
• 14:03
  take the over. So pitching match up here,
• 14:06
  Oakland, LA, we have Oakland going with Pete Blackburn.
• 14:10
  He's three and two of the 4.11 ERA, but he's coming off the 60
• 14:13
  day DL. So he might be on a pitch count.
• 14:15
  Maybe he's Rusty Fulmer, Carson Fulmer is going for the Angels.
• 14:19
  He's O and two, the 3.66 ERA. Both these bullpens were taxed
• 14:24
  quite a bit last night. So if we get to the pens, if you
• 14:27
  look at the line, just the the money line, it has moved a
• 14:30
  little bit toward the Angels. You know, angels went from a
• 14:33
  short dog to a little bit of favorite here.
• 14:35
  They're like around plus 100 to -110.
• 14:38
  So I leaned a little bit with the angels, but I like the over
• 14:40
  better. Now we are missing the
• 14:42
  triggering number here because this total opened at 9:00 and
• 14:45
  then it's been bet up to 9 1/2. So I'm going to go over.
• 14:49
  I'm going to tell you a couple reasons why, but I'll just
• 14:51
  mention this. This is a 9:38 PM Eastern Time
• 14:54
  game. We always want to get the
• 14:55
  triggering number. The triggering number is
• 14:58
  basically the number that the wise guys hit.
• 14:59
  So when wise guys took the over nine, they pushed the total up
• 15:03
  from 9 to 9 and a half. Now that it's at 9 and a half, a
• 15:06
  lot of these books are 9 1/2 under -115 so as a better, you
• 15:11
  can look at it one of two ways. You can say, hey, you know, I
• 15:14
  can go over 9 1/2 and only -105 that's pretty short juice.
• 15:18
  You know, risk a unit, you're going to get closer to a full
• 15:21
  unit back. You could also say, hey, since
• 15:23
  it's a late game, why don't I wait this thing out.
• 15:25
  Let's see if maybe the line comes back down to 9 and then
• 15:28
  wait and take the over 9. So I'm going to go over 9 1/2.
• 15:31
  That's the current price here. I got over 9 1/2 at -115 so we
• 15:35
  need 10 runs or more obviously. But one reason I really like the
• 15:38
  over is a really good bet split. The over is only getting 54% of
• 15:43
  bets but 77% of dollars. So basically the public is split
• 15:48
  down the middle. Very, very slight, tiny, tiny
• 15:51
  little slight lean there to the over 54%, but 77% of money is on
• 15:57
  the over. So that is a good low bets
• 15:59
  higher dollars discrepancy along with this total ticking up 9 up
• 16:02
  to 9 1/2. Now the weather's going to be
• 16:04
  great in Anaheim, 80° winds blowing out seven to 10 mph the
• 16:09
  last 10. This is what I wanted to mention
• 16:11
  about Oakland. Last 10 games are hitting 298.
• 16:14
  They're almost hitting 300 as a team.
• 16:17
  Last four matchups head to They're scoring a lot, they're
• 16:25
  giving up a lot. So you add it all up here, guys,
• 16:28
  we've seen a tick up here with a total 9 up to 9 1/2.
• 16:31
  We've got one team in particular who's been cashing a ton of
• 16:35
  overs, hitting very well this matchup.
• 16:37
  They've been scoring quite a bit head to head good weather wind
• 16:40
  blowing out, but really it's all about that bet split When I saw
• 16:43
  54% bet 77% money on the over that that's that told me, hey,
• 16:47
  is a is a bet worth making? So I'm going to go over again.
• 16:50
  You can wait it out. Hope it comes back down to 9,
• 16:53
  but I'm going to go over 9 1/2 at a reduced juice minus one O 5
• 16:57
  price. So Oakland LA over 9 1/2 at -1 O
• 17:01
  five. I want to mention this to
• 17:03
  division overs and non division overs.
• 17:05
  This is just building the case to take the over divisional
• 17:08
  overs because you play each other a lot.
• 17:10
  You know each other, the offense, the hitters know the
• 17:12
  opposing pitchers. Those overs are 241 and two
• 17:16
  2152.1%. Doesn't seem crazy right?
• 17:20
  But non division overs are 493 and five 2748.3%.
• 17:26
  So basically the divisional overs are cashing at roughly a
• 17:30
  4% higher clip than non division overs.
• 17:32
  Non division lack of familiarity benefit to the pitchers.
• 17:35
  Divisional built in familiarity benefit to the hitters.
• 17:38
  So divisional match up here tonight, obviously to AL West
• 17:41
  teams. Last bet before we get to some
• 17:44
  biting. I'm staying up late.
• 17:46
  Let's go to San Francisco ten 10:15 PM Eastern Time.
• 17:49
  First pitch, the Rockies and the G men.
• 17:53
  Now going into this one, Rockies are 38 and 65.
• 17:56
  Just took two or three against the Red Sox.
• 17:58
  They won that finale. Twenty to seven.
• 18:01
  Anyone ready for football? It's a football score as a + 125
• 18:04
  home dog. They won that game.
• 18:06
  Meanwhile, the G men, 49 and 55, just dropped three or four
• 18:09
  against the Dodgers. Lost that final season finale or
• 18:13
  series finale, six to four as a + 110 home dog.
• 18:16
  So pitch match up here. For tonight, we have the Rockies
• 18:19
  going with lefty Kyle Freeland. He's two and three with a 5.63
• 18:23
  ERA. The G men, meanwhile, are going
• 18:25
  to go with fellow southpaw Kyle Harrison.
• 18:28
  He's five and four with a 3.86 ERA.
• 18:30
  What have we seen across the market here?
• 18:33
  Well, some good sneaky movement in favor of the G men.
• 18:36
  I'm going Giants, guys. Giants open this game around a
• 18:39
  -, 165 home favorite. Now they're up to around -175 -,
• 18:43
  180. So this line is moving
• 18:45
  consistently One Direction in favor of San Fran.
• 18:49
  Now the Giants are getting around 80% of bets in dollars.
• 18:52
  So both public and sharp support in their favor.
• 18:54
  But the big indicator to me that smart money's on the Giants is
• 18:57
  that 10 to 1510 to 15, even 20 cent steam move in their favor.
• 19:03
  Now system matches favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a
• 19:05
  win. 337 and two 2560% this year with a 2% ROI.
• 19:11
  Favorites getting $0.10 of steam or more playing an opponent who
• 19:13
  missed the play offs. Mentioned this one earlier, but
• 19:16
  that's 62% this season when 2 below 500 teams face off.
• 19:21
  So two bad teams take the favorite that is 2O four and one
• 19:24
  3959% this year. We also have some correlative
• 19:27
  betting in terms of a favorite low total.
• 19:30
  So total this one is 8. It's just under like it may go
• 19:33
  down to 7 1/2. Actually see one book that's
• 19:35
  falling down to 7 1/2, but I'll be correlative betting fav low
• 19:38
  total. The fair amount of expected run
• 19:41
  scored likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
• 19:44
  The G men are six and three against the Rockies this year.
• 19:47
  Colorado as we know, Bad overall but terrible on the road. 14 and
• 19:50
  36 on the road. Second worst in baseball.
• 19:53
  Only the White Sox are worse on the road.
• 19:56
  The G men are 28 and 22 at home. The Giants, meanwhile, are
• 19:59
  hitting 260 against lefties. That's the 7th best average in
• 20:03
  baseball. Rockies, meanwhile, hitting 244
• 20:06
  against lefties. That's that only ranks 18th.
• 20:08
  So two lefties on the bump. San Fran's better against
• 20:10
  lefties and Kyle Freeland. This is crazy to me 'cause Coors
• 20:14
  Field is like a nightmare for pitchers cause of the altitude.
• 20:17
  He's actually got a 1.88 ERA at home versus 9.38 on the road.
• 20:23
  So really Jekyll and Hyde home Rd.
• 20:25
  And I want to bet against Jekyll and Hyde.
• 20:28
  Was Jekyll the good guy and Hyde was the bad guy.
• 20:30
  Either way, Kyle Freeland, let's bet against him on the road.
• 20:34
  Add it all up guys. I'm going Gee, man shot Brown.
• 20:37
  I got the Giants at -175 S Giants, Oakland, LA, over 9 1/2
• 20:43
  Saint Louis, Kansas City in Houston, 5 pack.
• 20:46
  Can we get three or more? Now over to the favorite thing
• 20:51
  you like to talk about, and I like to talk about on a Friday,
• 20:54
  some biting in the arena. That's right, some UFC.
• 20:58
  Now UFC this weekend is Edwards versus Mohammed.
• 21:03
  And this is UFC3O4. It is located in, I believe, in
• 21:06
  Manchester, England. And there's a reason why I
• 21:08
  mentioned that we're going to get to it here in one second.
• 21:11
  But what jumped out to me, of course, let's always take a step
• 21:14
  back because we have a lot of people who maybe don't bet UFC.
• 21:18
  I'm doing my best, you know, my best effort to get you guys into
• 21:22
  UFC because I just love it. It's once a week, you know, you
• 21:26
  wait and pick and pick maybe one bout to get down on.
• 21:29
  Whenever I get together with my buddies, you know, we maybe buy
• 21:32
  pay-per-view or sweat, sweat all the bouts together.
• 21:34
  We'll bet them all, even though I would probably advise against
• 21:37
  that. I like the idea of kind of just
• 21:39
  picking one each week. So that's what we've been doing.
• 21:41
  But anyway, the models little different, younger, taller,
• 21:45
  longer reach. So tell the tape you want in
• 21:48
  favor of your fighter or biter. And then it's all about the data
• 21:52
  because we're, I believe 6 and all our last six UFC bouts and
• 21:55
  what have we been, what have we been doing?
• 21:57
  The model hasn't changed, younger, taller, longer reach.
• 22:00
  But really it's the data, the line move and the bet splits.
• 22:03
  So we want low bets, higher dollars with the line move with
• 22:06
  all the tail, the tape in favor of the same fighter.
• 22:09
  So you add it all up and I found one bout or bite this weekend
• 22:14
  that caught my eye and it is the flyweight matchup between
• 22:18
  Mohamed Mokayev and Manel Kape. So Mokayev is M OK AEV Kape is
• 22:26
  KAPE, and I'm going to go with Mohamed Mokayev.
• 22:31
  That's right. I got Mokayev at -165 So I'll
• 22:34
  tell you why I like Mohamed Mokayev.
• 22:36
  It's not my opinion, it's what the markets telling me.
• 22:39
  So going into this bout, let's start off with the data because
• 22:43
  I always start my UFC cap with the data.
• 22:46
  Let's just cover up the names of the fighters, look at the bets
• 22:48
  in dollars and look at the line movement.
• 22:50
  So Muhammad Mikayev caught my eye because number one, he had a
• 22:55
  line move at BET MGM. He opened that basically a
• 22:57
  pick'em, you know, slight -120 favorite.
• 23:00
  Now he's up to -165 S body $0.45 The move in favor of Mikayev,
• 23:06
  lines going in his favor. Then I go to the bets in
• 23:08
  dollars. Mokayev is only getting 55% of
• 23:12
  bets, but 74% of dollars. So low bets, higher dollars,
• 23:17
  basically half the tickets, but three out of $4.00.
• 23:20
  So he's got 55% bets, 74% money, and the line is moved in his
• 23:25
  favor -120 to -165. Then we go to the tail of the
• 23:29
  tape. Mohammed Mokayev is 23 years
• 23:32
  old. His opponent Cape is 30 years
• 23:35
  old, so Mokayev has a seven-year youth advantage.
• 23:40
  Mohammed Mokayev is 5 foot six. Koppe is 5 foot four, so A2 inch
• 23:45
  height advantage. Mohammed Mokayev has a 70 inch
• 23:49
  reach. Koppe has a 68 inch reach, so A2
• 23:52
  inch reach advantage. Then I was digging a little bit
• 23:55
  deeper. So right off the bat we've
• 23:56
  checked off every box. Younger, taller, longer, each
• 23:59
  line move, low bets, higher dollars.
• 24:01
  That's the blueprint. But then I was like to look at
• 24:03
  some supplementary factors. One that I was reading about was
• 24:06
  Mokayev as a really big grappler.
• 24:09
  He's a really good wrestler. He's a stud grappler and he's a
• 24:12
  submission expert. So he's the kind of guy that
• 24:15
  wants to get the fight to the mat.
• 24:18
  That's where he dominates. You know, when we're sweating
• 24:20
  this bout tomorrow, we want to see a lot more of this fight on
• 24:23
  on the on the mat versus standing up and and striking
• 24:26
  each other. Also, it jumped out to me that
• 24:29
  Mokayev is way better defensively.
• 24:32
  Mokayev only allows 1.36 significant strikes per minute.
• 24:37
  Koppe allows 4.51 significant strikes per minute.
• 24:40
  So basically, Mokeev is better defensively and limits the
• 24:44
  punishment that he takes versus Koppe, who takes a lot of
• 24:47
  punishment. And then I was digging a little
• 24:50
  deeper here and again, I was reading about how this is kind
• 24:53
  of a classic striker versus grappler.
• 24:55
  Mokeev is the strike the grappler, Koppe is the striker.
• 25:00
  But the other advantages here, two more than I'm going to look
• 25:03
  at one is a almost a, a home Octagon, a homecourt advantage,
• 25:07
  home field advantage, whatever you want to call it.
• 25:08
  Because Mokayev, I was reading about him, he's got a very
• 25:12
  interesting upbringing. He was born in Dagestan and he
• 25:15
  moved to England and he's been living in England for quite a
• 25:18
  while. And I guess he trains there and
• 25:21
  he's kind of a, you know, a local, you know, young young
• 25:24
  buck hero there, I guess. And this bout is in England.
• 25:28
  So he's got the home crowd behind him.
• 25:31
  He's much younger and better cardio.
• 25:33
  And then here's where it gets interesting.
• 25:36
  I noticed this. And if you ever want to do some
• 25:38
  research, like sometimes I'll just research like Mokeev cop a
• 25:42
  prediction. And I'm not going to tell what
• 25:44
  people tell me. But sometimes people who know
• 25:47
  obviously more than me about UFC, they'll give you some
• 25:49
  insight that maybe you're not aware of.
• 25:51
  And I stumbled upon some news that this was actually supposed
• 25:54
  to be on the main card and it got moved down to the prelims.
• 25:58
  And there's no exact reason why they decided to move this bout
• 26:03
  from the the main card to the prelims.
• 26:07
  But a lot of the stuff I was reading, maybe it's totally BS
• 26:10
  but it was a lot of negative stuff around Coppe.
• 26:13
  So either he has an injury or he missed weight or is having
• 26:19
  issues cutting weight. But basically it's as I was
• 26:23
  reading, it's kind of rare for a a boy to be on the main card and
• 26:27
  then, you know, last minute get moved to the prelims.
• 26:30
  And again, everything I was reading is it's not because I'm
• 26:32
  OK of it's because of Kape. So maybe there's an issue with
• 26:35
  Kape. Maybe that's why the line is
• 26:37
  moving toward Makayev. Maybe that's why, you know,
• 26:40
  we've obviously seen this belt get moved.
• 26:42
  But when I tell you that he's younger, taller, with a longer
• 26:45
  reach, a line move, a great bet split and has a homecourt
• 26:49
  advantage, home Octagon advantage.
• 26:52
  We're checking off all the boxes here.
• 26:53
  So I'm going Mohammed Mokaev M OK, AEV on the money line here.
• 26:59
  I'm on Mokaev at -165 biting that about does it for episode
• 27:05
  83 or actually 84, I should say, of the all systems go sports
• 27:09
  betting podcast. Now a reminder if you enjoy this
• 27:13
  podcast #1 thank you for taking the time out of your day to
• 27:16
  listen and support the pod. But can I ask something of you?
• 27:19
  Could you please give this podcast a 5 star review?
• 27:22
  That's right. If you're listening on Spotify
• 27:24
  or iTunes or any other platform, there's an option to rate the
• 27:27
  pod. Give me 5 stars.
• 27:29
  It would mean a lot to me guys. The the more five star reviews,
• 27:33
  the more credit we get, the more eyeballs, the more recognition,
• 27:37
  the the quicker we go up the the charts here.
• 27:39
  So if you enjoy the pod, you're listening to my voice, you'd
• 27:42
  like to be a data-driven better and catch some tickets.
• 27:44
  Hopefully you can give this pod five stars.
• 27:46
  That'll mean a lot to me. Also, if there's an option to
• 27:49
  follow, that would be great if you click the follow button.
• 27:51
  That way you get alerted as soon as the pod drops.
• 27:54
  Secondly, if you enjoy the way we talk about sports betting,
• 27:58
  not what we want to happen tonight, but not we think or or
• 28:02
  hope or betting with gut or betting with gut instinct or
• 28:05
  bias or favoritism. No, we're looking at the market
• 28:08
  and we're reading the market and trying to make sharp bets based
• 28:11
  on the data. If that style of betting appeals
• 28:13
  to you and you want to learn more about data-driven betting,
• 28:16
  guess what I wrote a book on data-driven betting.
• 28:19
  It's called the everything Guide to Sports betting.
• 28:21
  If you want to buy a copy, it would mean a lot to me.
• 28:23
  Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
• 28:27
  betting, pick one up for you or for a friend.
• 28:29
  And again, it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 28:31
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 28:34
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 28:37
  person or online, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
• 28:40
  included in the everything guide to Sports betting.
• 28:42
  So buy a copy for you or a buddy and when I see at the book, I'll
• 28:46
  buy you a beer or ginger ale and I'll sign the book at the book.
• 28:51
  Of course, if you haven't done it yet, I want you to go sign up
• 28:54
  for a 7 day free trial of both Juice Reel and Rhythm to my two
• 28:59
  favorite sports betting apps because they're all data-driven,
• 29:02
  just like my style of betting. But if you haven't done it yet,
• 29:05
  you can have a 7 day free trial just by clicking the custom link
• 29:08
  located in the bio description of this podcast.
• 29:12
  Of course, I always like to tell you about Rhythm because they do
• 29:14
  a great job powering the pod, but also they're fantastic with
• 29:17
  their AI backed models and predictions.
• 29:19
  So right now, obviously WNBA is on hiatus, but Rhythm is great
• 29:24
  for golf as we have another golf term.
• 29:26
  I think it's a three M1 coming up here.
• 29:29
  So if you want to get some insights and models and
• 29:31
  predictions and bet some top 20s or do the AI caddy hole to hole
• 29:35
  betting, Rhythm will allow you to do that, help you cash some
• 29:38
  tickets. And then of course, Juice Reel.
• 29:40
  Juice Reel does a great job with their arbitrage bets with their
• 29:43
  Robo Jackson best bet picks. I saw Robo went two and all
• 29:46
  yesterday. He's up to his old tricks as
• 29:48
  well as shopping for the best line, syncing up your sports
• 29:51
  books to the app and also getting the sharp mush
• 29:54
  opportunities each day. So Juice Reel, you got to go
• 29:57
  sign up as well as with Rhythm. That about does it guys.
• 30:01
  End of our work week here. We got a big weekend ahead and
• 30:04
  I'm excited to sweat some games with you.
• 30:06
  So of course, I'll always leave it at this, whether I see you at
• 30:10
  the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 30:13
  Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 30:15
  Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
• 30:18
  Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
• 30:21
  Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
• 30:24
  get down or Billy Walter sends his number runners where low
• 30:27
  shoes possible is found, the South Point or Sweat and sharp
• 30:29
  contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool at Circa.
• 30:33
  When you cash a big ticket, you're going to walk up to me.
• 30:35
  You're going to show me a beautiful Mets walk off winner
• 30:38
  last night. That's right, let's go Mets.
• 30:42
  Mets had a huge win for us last night.
• 30:43
  I love watching that comeback win, but flash me a Mets ticket.
• 30:47
  Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 30:49
  you. We're going to post about the
• 30:50
  book Sweatshop Contrarian plays all night long.
• 30:53
  So wish the best of luck. Everyone have a great weekend.
• 30:56
  Reminder, no pods on the weekend, so we back at it on
• 30:59
  Monday. But I do write the sharp report
• 31:01
  for visen.com, so you can always check my Twitter.
• 31:03
  Saturday and Sunday around noon, you'll get my sharp report
• 31:06
  locate honing in on three bets each day if you want to sweat
• 31:10
  with me this weekend. But have a great weekend,
• 31:12
  everyone. Good luck.
• 31:13
  And as always, stay sharp. Stay contrarian.
• 31:16
  Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
• 31:18
  house. Always be with the sharp money,
• 31:20
  never against it. Will sharp money win every time?
• 31:23
  Of course not. Nothing's guaranteed in sports
• 31:25
  betting. But here's the thing.
• 31:26
  If we can consistently stay true to the model, make bets with our
• 31:29
  head and not our heart against the public with the pros, flat
• 31:33
  bet, avoid parlays. If we can do that, get some CLV,
• 31:37
  we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 31:39
  So enjoy your Friday night everyone.
• 31:41
  Have an even better weekend. I'll see you back on Monday for
• 31:44
  episode 85 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
• 31:48
  by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
• 31:51
  the biting.