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The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview with Nick Giffen · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BED
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine preview episode. We will break
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: down the lines for the Big Game between the Kansas
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles with our guest doctor
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffen Predictive Analystic Action Network. We'll talk super Bowl bets,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: his incredible luck rankings.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Hi, everybody Hi.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: After Nick Simon and I will deliver our exec decision
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: and our Simon says, because we are on the super
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Bowl schedule, reminder, we will wait and do our Big
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Balls foxhol Biggest bet Scutroulette next Thursday before the Super.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: Bowl, as we do every year.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: We've got a full menu of super Bowl betting intel
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: for you over the next four episode. After today's betting
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: preview episode, we've got our super Bowl Trend Show with
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: our beloved data Mavin Evan Abrams on Thursday. Next Tuesday,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: we talk all things super Bowl props with Sean Kerner
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: and Chris Raybon. Then we'll wrap it up next Thursday
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: with our final Best Bets episode of the football season.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Joined by Brandon Anderson, who has crushed it with his
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: hot red bets on the Action Network podcast on Sunday
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Nights with Evan exciting a couple of weeks planning to
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: break down over the next few episodes live from our
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Timomy John Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: co host, my companion, mikeam Padra, my BFF, professional Better
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: signmon hunter, el Sooimon Chad.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: How are we doing?
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: I am so good? You know, I.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Know you feel this way. You've got the Eagles in
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. You've got massive futures on the Eagles
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. It feels like you've thread the needle beautifully.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I am still feeling a little bit relieved because the
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Eagles matchup bet paid off for me
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: after a relatively shitty year.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: It is amazing to me.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: How different I feel in the twenty four to forty
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: eight hours after.
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: Something wins. I know, it's so stupid.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: It's not like I'm betting money that is going to
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: change my life one way or the other. It's only
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: about seeing the opportunity and then over the next twenty
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: four hours, feeling good that I made the right decision
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: regretting decisions I made, regretting decisions I didn't make, regretting
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: decisions I had in front of me that I missed. Like,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: it's really what it comes down to for me, and
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I just feel better having gotten the matchup.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: Bet. I know it sounds amateurs. I don't know what
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: to tell you it is and it's not.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: It's also I think it's because of this show. Right,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: we know how huge of a show this is and
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: how many people listen, and a lot of pressure comes out.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be lying to you to end this season
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: going five zero to one on sides feels pretty fucking
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: good for your boy. So yeah, I get where you're
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: coming from. It's like, that's what we put all the
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: work in for, and you know, when it comes out
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: and works, it's like, God, this is this is the
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: best feeling. But yeah, I agree. The hardest part is
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: you're already onto the next week. So I definitely enjoyed it,
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: was excited for it. When we talked Sunday night and
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: I literally woke up Monday morning, I was just like, well,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: back to work, and that's just how that's the nature
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: of this job. So I am really excited to dive
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: into this matchup.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: Well, let's get to it.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorite podcast is presented by
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new Bet.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Three six five.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
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  Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight eight hundred bets off
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Condition restrictions apply all right, Kansas City
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: one and a half point.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: Favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl fifty nine.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Batt summer all here with John Matten and all that
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: build up and all of this hoop lage, John, Is
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: it as big as it seems?
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: I think it's bigger than it seems. And if you're
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: one of these players or one of these coaches, it's
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: the biggest thing in your life. And it's something that
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: there are thirty teams in the league, and there are
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: thirty teams or players and coaches, and every one of
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: them want to be here today. And then you say, well,
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: how big is that. It's even bigger than that, because
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: it's not just getting here today, but it's winning today.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: And I think that the biggest difference in sports are
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: the biggest gap in sports is a difference between the
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: winner and the loser of the super Bowl. The winner,
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: you're world champion. They can never take it away from you,
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: you'll never forget it. The loser, they just get thrown
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: back in the pile.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: The total is forty nine and a half the money line.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Since the number is so short, I do want to
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: give that as an option right now. It's anywhere minus
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: one twenty five to minus one thirty. I bet this
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: and a half and Kansas City on the money line
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: at minus one twenty Simon Simon, I'm making Kansas City
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: on the money line. My exec decision, the choice between
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Are you at your honest execute number? Executive decision already
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: diving right in it's available.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Last week, you beat me to the punch, so I
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: felt like to get on a straight away.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it, obviously. It's been interesting the
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: movement this week, and that's what I can't wait to
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: dive into, because we can do like a mini sharp
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: call here just about the early reads on you know
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: what I'm hearing and what guys are saying. And we
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: talked Sunday night the line was moving to two. I
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: thought we'd be sitting here, he'd be two and a half.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know about you.
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: I did.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: I'm actually shocked it's not a two right now.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I told you the hesitation to me was
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: going to be everyone like me that runs a model.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: I would be shocked if they didn't have the Eagles
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: as a small favorite. And you know, coming into that
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: matchup last week, I had the Chiefs as a favorite,
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: and it really had a lot to do with I thought,
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: you know, Hurts was injured. I really did think that
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: knee was a real thing. You had to throw that out.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: The clear was no issue on the knee at all.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: I mean he had three rushing touchdowns. I know two
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: of them were touch pushes, but he had another rushing
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: touchdout was called back on a hold that really didn't
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: affect the play all. So you should have two long
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns. He did not look like an issue to me,
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: So definitely a went back and looked break it all down.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: Do you have egos as a minus one favorite here?
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: So I do understand the respect from the you know,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: heavy money coming in right now on the Eagles, because
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: you look at most books right now it is Chiefs money,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: and I know in the action app it it says
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: it's right now it's all Egles money. So I know,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: I know that could depending on where you're at and
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: what books you use, it could fluctuate. But you know
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: a couple of books I really respect. Right now, it
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: looks like the early money is coming in on this
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Eagles team. So yeah, it's it's pretty interesting that the
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: professionals are taking this Eagle side, and it looks like
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: when you're looking at the Ticke account, that the public
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: is doing what me and chatter probably ended up doing
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: here and end up on the chief side because it
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: just feels like the safer side. And we understand the
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Eagles are the better team. And I'm looking forward to
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: diving into all these numbers, but you know, the Eagles
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: to pull this off, Chad, they are going to have
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: to be historical because we've seen my homes now it
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: feels like the book is out, Like if you don't
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: kill them, if you don't if not up double digits, yea,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: with two minutes to go with the ball, You're somehow
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: going to lose that game. I don't know how he
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: keeps doing it, like he just keeps finding these ways
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: to win and that you know, the calls go their way.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Everything we can talk we always talk about at the
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: end of the day, they make the plays when they
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: need to, like Spags makes the right blitz call when
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: he needs to. And you know this Eagles team, then
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: why I dive into it. It is better than that
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: twenty seventeen team that Eagles won the Super Bowl with.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: And it's pretty easy to realize why Eagles had an
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: all pro quarterback Carson Wentz go down. They have their
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: all pro tackle and Jason Peters go down. Those are
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: two major hits their offense. And then defensively, you know
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: they had they had a bunch of injuries as well.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: So this Eagles team is healthy, like this is a
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: team that might be getting Brandon Grahan back. So it's
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: it's pretty well. We dive into it the fact that
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: there are things the Eagles can do to beat this team.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: And I know people talked about, well, it's the Fangs defense,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: right then matter up, Well, you know it's the defense
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: basically rushes four. We know from the history that's how
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: you beat Mahomes. The only time we've seen him lose
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl against Tom Brady was when he
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: got pressured rushing four. That Tampa bead front was just
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: incredible because we talked, I mean you go back with
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Star our podcast, we knew that game was gonna be
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: won in the trenches from the Tampa side because they're
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: left and right tackle ra out for the Chiefs. So
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: when you look at this, that's the edge to me
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: for the Eagles, right if you're looking for an edge
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: to take here, we know the secondary is incredible. Yet
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: I mean Quannon Mitchell in the playoffs so far twelve targets.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: He's gonna up four catches for twenty one yards, two
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: interceptions of pass breakup. That's our rookie Quanyon Mitchell. That's incredible.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Zach Brown, you know, could easily win Defensive Player of
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: the Year. He's had twenty six tackles, three tackles for
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: a loss, one force fumble, two FuMB was recovered, one interceptions,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: two pass deflected. That's that's insane that he's been playing
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: dial level. So there are guys in the back end
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: that could be a difference maker. My whole point was
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: to getting that in Fangs defense. He he just rushes
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: before and if you go back historically, he's zero for
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: eight in his career against Patrick Mahomes. He's never beat Mahomes.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: So it's like, Okay, well maybe he's never had the guys.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: He's had some pretty good defenses. It's just Mahomes is
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: just Andy Reid and Mahomes are always one step ahead.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's really interesting breaking this game down
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: with those numbers where it's like the Eagles have the defenders,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: but you know, Mahomes is gonna have a counter for it.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Like we saw, we joked Chad that play I can't
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: get over that rushing touchdown he had to win the game.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Even the Bills defenders talk about they've never seen that
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: on tape before. Guess where that game was. Guess where
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: that play was on tape the Bills. They stole it
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: from the Bills offense and ran against their defense. So
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen play, they ran with Patrick Mahomes and made
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Travis Custer lee blacker. So that was just my long
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: win answer getting through that. I'm trying to find reasons
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: that back this Eagles team because it does come down
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: the defense. But it's tough to find the silver lining
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: here because Andy Reid and Patrickmwans always have a counter.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you feel the same way about that, chef.
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: Dude, you're reading my mind, and it's so funny.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Last year at this time, we were looking at the
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Chiefs as two.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: Point underdogs, I think, and.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Struggling with betting the Chiefs because we clearly thought the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Niners had a better roster, they were better at top
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: to bottom, right, But we went with the Chiefs because
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: you don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes because Patrick
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Mahomes is a dog, and I would emphasize The stats
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: we always talk about on Patrick Mahomes are not just
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: as a dog, They're as a favorite of three or
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: less or as a dog. So this is in that window.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: But I was thinking about this this morning. The comps
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: are the same. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes. I'm
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: not betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnolo.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: This is a Hall.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Of Fame trio who when Andy Reid has had a vehicle,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: a vessel for his brilliance, like Patrick Mahomes, he has
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: pretty much been unstoppable. When I'm thinking about this game,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I'm in the office today and I was just talking
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: to the guy who runs our finance team, who happens
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: to be a huge Buffalo Bills fan, and I said
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to him, we were talking about the game, obviously from
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: this past weekend, and I was like, look, at the
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: end of the day, over the next two weeks, do
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I trust Andy Reid to game plan over Nick Sirianni
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: and Kellen Moore?
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Do I trust Steve Spagnolo to game plan over Vic Fangio.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's even, but Spagnolo has done it in the
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: biggest games, in the biggest circumstances, not just in Super Bowls,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: but that the way he disguised that blitz against Josh
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Allen on fourth and five was brilliant, had it in
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: his bag the whole game and held it until he
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: needed it.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Do I trust Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts? Yes, so
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: like I get the roster stuff at the end of
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: the day, the people who need to make the decisions
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: when they matter most that I trust the most.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: It's going to be on the Chiefs.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: That's fair. And I do want to give flowers though,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to make this all just
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: love for this Chief side. Obviously, people know I'm a
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: dire Eagles fan, tons of respect to this team. It's
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: incredible what how he's built here, and Chad just said it,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: like I'm the same view. This is no doubt the
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: best team of football. They have the best roster roster
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: and it all comes down to health. Right. They've been
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: able to stay healthy and that is the key. We
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: talk all the time to getting to this point in
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: the season, and you know, Jalen Hurts and again I
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: love Chad. Chad went for being one of my best
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: men and my future wedding in fifteen years to be
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: not invited. When he left out of his top ten
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: this past summer, I was so mad at Chad. I
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: couldn't believe he did it. I felt portrayal because it
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: just felt like they hate I had gone too far
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: with Hurts and carried over it a little bit to
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: this season because people wanted in to throw up, throw
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: for more yards and score more touchdowns. And you know,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: we've seen some amazing stats these last twenty four hours
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: on Jailen Hurts, and I'm gonna read off a couple
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: just because I want to put people in perspective of
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: just how high the bar is set for people sometimes
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: and it doesn't really make sense because it's like it
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: feels like you're watching a totally different game. So, last
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: three seasons, including playoffs, Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts, let's compare
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: their stats. Patrick Mahomes has forty eight wins, ten losses,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: pretty good. Jalen Hurts forty two wins, twelve losses. Their
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: total yards per game Mahomes two ninety, pretty impressive, Jalen
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Hurts two sixty. Okay. Mahomes total touchdowns one to seventeen
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: forty three turnovers. Jalen Hurts one hundred and twenty one touchdowns,
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: thirty nine turnovers, So you did better than that stat.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Passer rating Mahomes ninety eight point five, passer rating Hurts
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: ninety seven point five, basically identical stats across the board.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: One is viewed as the greatest quarterback ever. One is
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: not a top ten quarterback to Chad Moment. So that's
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: what I mean. It's it's tough where I get the hate,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: but you just go through all these stats and it's incredible.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts is the eighth quarterback in NFL history reached
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: multiple Super Bowls in their first five seasons. He joins
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: Troy Aikman, John Oway. Okay, maybe Russell Wilson want to
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: make the Hall of Fame. Everyone else I just read
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: on that list is a Hall of Famer. So it's like,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: I get the hate and the doubt, but there this
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: is the team in the quarterback that I do think
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: could pull it off. But this is a long win
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: away of getting I don't think I'm gonna put my
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: money on it. I think I'm with Chad here and
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: just the fact that it's Mahomes and it's under three
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: in this exact spot, and I was hoping Evan was
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: gonna be here for this little part because I saw
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: a crazy stat that mahomes Is was coming into the season.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: He was eleven to zero. Don't and true dome games
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: in his career eleven and oh he's now fifteen and
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: oh through this whole season, and don't.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Get Evan to I mean, certainly Evan will be on
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Thursday and we can we can have yeah.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: Because that just blew my mind where it's like I
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: knew how dominant he was in indoor games and how
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: rare was him to play it right, because you know,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: no one is division as home games. I know people
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: count their chargers. That's actually not considered a true home game.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: I know, as stupid as that sounds, but the Saints Dome,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: this is as dome as it gets. It's the super Dome,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: so it's wild where it's if it's perfect, no wind,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: no bullshit, people always like, well, how good he is
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: in the cold? Me and Chad loved that stet right
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: sixteen and two, when it's below free degrees the man
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: could be might be fifteen to zero in Dome games.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: It's just all of his numbers, all this stuff just breaks,
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: all this stuff, all the work I put into it.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I wanted to find reasons the back to
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: the Sequels team. I want to believe in Jalen Hurts,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: want to believe in Saquon Barkley, this wrong game after
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: seeing Cooks just do whatever the hell he wanted. Again,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: it's this Chiefs team last week, Like this is a
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: good matchup for the run game for this Eagles team.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: But like me and Chad, no, and when it's the
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter, even if the Eagles are up a touchdown,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Mahomes is gonna find a way. If you let him
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: live long enough, he will find a way. So yeah,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: this is a really tough spot to be in. I
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: was really hoping we would come in here and it'd
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: be two and a half. Three this Eagle's number, And
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: to me, same with the Bills. I would have been
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: comfortable taking the three on this dog one and a half.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: I get the respect from the pros and what their
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: models are telling them, I just can't do it. Once
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: it's crossed that threshold with Mahomes. Once You're getting a
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: great number of mahomes at one and a half, and
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: you can do what Chad's doing. There's no dishonor in
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: taking the money line, like you want to play it
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: as safe as possible, because last week that game could
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: have easily landed on one. Like I know, Chad was
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: just like me doing that crazy math where it's like,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: oh my god, they missed a two pointer, They're gonna
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: kick a field goal. This is gonna land on one.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: There's no dishonor in taking the money line there. But
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: to me, I don't have fear and taking the one
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: and a half of mahomes. We've just seen super Bowl
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: in its entire history, it's only had one game landing
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: between three. So we're talking a long history of the
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl and only one time in its history is
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: ever landing between three. So I'm good with taking the
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: risks taking the one and a half. I just I
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: believe in this Chiefs team, believe in the number, and
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: I know I hate to do it. I hate to
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: see my team lose, and I know it's gonna hurt,
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: But you just have to trust Mahmes and Andy Reid
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: and Spags. Like you just said, in the spot. They
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: always find a way. You just gotta throw the numbers
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: out here. People. It's so tough to do. But to me,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: there's only one side to take, and is the Chiefs.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Is Chiefs minus one and a half yours, Sigmon says, when.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: We do, I'll do it. Yeah, let's I mean, we
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: only have so many options, right, there's like two. There's
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: only a side in the total here. So I'm with you, Yes,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Simon says, give me, gimme Chiefs minus one and a half.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: What's interesting to me about this game? You know, we
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: can talk a little bit about the matchup. I'm excited
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: that we're on the same side, as is customary.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: Honestly, I wanted to go against that. I was looking
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: for a reason that bad.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: You knew that, you knew that I love thee and
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I was. I was honestly nervous. Like I thought about
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: it yesterday, I thought about it this morning. I'm like, man,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: I hope Simon's on my side. I know he's doing
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of work the past couple of days, Like,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: I know he's gonna I knew you were gonna have
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the Eagles probably at minus two in this game. If
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I had to bet that's where you're number landed right.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: No, actually, and it just Eagles minus one so one O.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Thankly that is value. That means you're getting two and
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: a half points.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting two and a half points of
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: value according to everybody's model, which is why people are
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: betting it.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: But guy Sean Shan's got it at Chiefs minus one
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: and a half. So Sean Sean definitely respects the chief side.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: But yeah, most most pros I've talked to, but which
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: I just said is true, most of them are minus one,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: minus one and a half on the Eagles, even some
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: have minus two. So a lot of respect on the
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Eagle side.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Other than my just firm belief in Andy Reid, Steve Spegnolo,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes and getting them is basically to win the game.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: A couple things about the matchup that stuck out to
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: me that we're in favor of the Eagles that I
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: think are being underrepresented potentially in the market or when
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: it comes to evaluating the Chiefs. Everyone talks about the
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Eagles rush and it is dominant.
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: Jalen Carter is unreal.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Brian Baldinger, who I like to follow, he had a
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: video clip of Jalen Carter some guy trying to undercut
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: him and Jalen Carter flipped like literally just hurtled the
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: guy on the way to the quarterback. It was like,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: the guy is such a freaking nature. But one thing
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: that I think the Chiefs have done which a lot
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: of people have recognized but not talked enough about. They're
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: not a downfield passing team. And because their offensive line
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: is just not very good right now, like Mahomes worst
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: QBI he's ever had in his career, sacked more than
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: he's ever been in his career. The brilliance of Andy
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Reid is that he's changed the offense and so there's
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: such a quick passing offense now fifty six percent of
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: their receiving yards came on yards after the catch. So
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: part of me feels like some of the matchup advantages
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: that the Eagles have, both as a coverage unit and
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: as a rush unit are mitigated because of the way
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs play offense.
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: Now agree or disagree.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Agree, and I do want to give flowers to Nolan
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Smith Junior, who you know, Jade Daniels is one of
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: the best athletes I've ever seen, and he somehow was
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: able to catch him a few times in that game,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: and you know he is a difference maker coming off
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: that edge. Like we talked about that Eagles. If there's
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: a defense that can stop him, my homes this is
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: the defense. Like this is in my lifetime, the best
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: defense Eagles I've ever had, Like the how he hit
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: on every rookie pick and then basically got an All
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: Pro for three million, four million dollars in the middle
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: of the field at linebacker and braun So it's it's
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: all come together, like this is the perfect thing. But
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: I think Chad knows where I'm coming from where my life,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Like he says, there was hesitation last year in the
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl. As soon as that Ravens game ended. I
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: didn't stop betting that Chiefs number until that that Friday, Like.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: Hes that was my hesitation.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, like I was like, the fucking
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: numbers don't matter. That was the best Ravens team that
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: was perfectly set up to beat that chief That Chiefs
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: team was not good last year, Like this Chiefs team.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: People are like, well this team isn't that good. They
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: fucking are. This is a better Chiefs team at any
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: point than they were last year. You know, it's just
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: what we talk about. It's the game within the game
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: that Mahomes plays with Andy Reid, and it's like it's
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: it's so tough because it's like this is this Eagles
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: team is perfectly lined up to beat this team, like
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: they have no weakness honestly, like like we joked about it,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: their biggest weakness is Hurts. Honestly, when you when you
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: really do break it down, it's like, if Hurts doesn't
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: show up, he's gonna need to make big time thirds
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: in this game. They will lose this game because the
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: running attack, even the receivers, they will be able to
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: get open. I mean Matt Collins was able to get
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: open last week. You think aj or smith A're gonna
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: have issues getting open. No, like they're gonna be able
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: to scheme it open. But yeah, when I really dive
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: into it again, we didn't even talk to the total yet.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Like that's another spot. I really love the Total. I
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: love the under This does feel like this is going
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: to be an ugly defensive type of game from both sides,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: and coming into it, the public is thinking the other
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: way in my opinion, Like to me, I haven't really
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: looked at it, but they're going to be hammering the
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: over because the Eagles just put up fifty five points.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Chiefs just had their highest scoring game of the year
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: last week thirty two points. It's really that simple when
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: you break it down, like the public overreacts to what
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: they just saw, where historical data tells us teams that
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: just like went crazy in the conference championship game tend
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: to struggle in the Super Bowl, right because it's like
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: you come off or playing a perfect game and it's
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: going to feel different, right, every little thing. Like we
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: talked about last week and Ochad thought the Eagles left
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: a couple of players in the field. When I go
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: back and watch it, they got so lucky in so
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: many different ways, like even that opening touchdown, you know,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Washington getting sucked in and triple you know, Bobby Wagner
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: tripping over his own guy. Yeah, missing the tackle, Saqua,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: I'm breaking the tackles fluky like no one No one's
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: like model is gonna be like, oh no, that should
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: have been a touchdown. No, it shouldn't have. Like a
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: lot of things need to break their way for all
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: those points scored in that game. So yeah, like we
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: were talking about right now when I feel like it's
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: gonna be a low scoring, ugly, drag it out type
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: of game once again favors Mahomes, Like, that's exactly what
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs want to play. They've been living in that
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: this whole season, just pulling people down in the mud,
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: just making them try to wiggle their way out of it.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: And the Eagles they have, like I said, they have
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: the team to do it. The one loss that really
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: stuck out to me they had all year was that
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen loss. I mean, I know it was way
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: early in the season, but you saw how they can
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: do it right with a mobile quarterback. That does give
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs fits. Like that element of it is an
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: issue to the Chiefs defense because there's so many different
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: options you can run with it, and we saw it
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: this past week. I mean, it was there for Josh
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: Allen to steal it once again. Why because he's a
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: mobile quarterback and they do struggle with so there are
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: ways to do it. But I mean you can just
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: tell like me and Chad, we just we've been burned,
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: We've learned our lessons. We feel like we're in the
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: moments of history. Don't overthink a right Chad. That's what
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I keep telling myself. Take chiefs at a great number, Mahomes.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, Chad knows these stats. I just want to
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: read it again. I mean we've been talking all week.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: I know Evans might bring it up to on extended rest,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Mahomes is thirty and four straight up in his career
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: on eight plus days of rest. His only losses is
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: one of them is two. Jalen hurts like it hurts,
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: did do it one time? You're asking a lightning to
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: strike twice here because it's only half four times Brady
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Matt Ryan Jalen hurts in O'Connell Mahomes. In the playoffs,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: his record Chad seventeen and three eighty five percent straight up.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: This man, we just it doesn't make sense. The only
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the only person he's behind. I love the staff from
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: Evan is bart Starr, who's nine on one straight up
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs. That's what we're talking here. People. It's
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: like the greatest quarterback ever though.
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: They quarterback who's three pete he's chasing.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: I love it. Yeah, I don't even think of that.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: It's so true. So yeah, it's we know we're sitting
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: in history. Chad's embraced it. I'm still fighting it because
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I am just to my dying breath being like, no,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: this can't be true. I can't see my favorite team
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: lose two super Bowls in three years. But it does
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: feel like we're living in history and this is Mahomes's moment.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Chad, I again. I'm trying to find a
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: way people. I'm hoping to come in Thursday next week,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday and be like, oh, I found this. This
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: is why you should take the egos at this point.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: But no, the number is gone the other ways. It's
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: a good number on Mahomes at this point. The value
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: is on Mahomes. Let's take Mahomes here together.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Brother, Oh my god, I feel like maybe I'll be
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: your best man again again.
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: You're back in time you find love.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: By the time you find love, you'll have forgotten all
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: about this. You'll have been in like so many stupors.
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: By then you'll be like, I love Chad. We were
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: on the Chiefs together.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: Uh, all right, there's a couple more things that I have,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: but I feel like they played nicely into Uh. Doctor
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Nick and some of his regression analysis and.
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: The luck range and get some.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Let's get let's get an actual mathematician in here. Reminder
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: to everybody listening, our bet three six five Super Bowl
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  Speaker 1: Everyone knows Doctor Nick hosts bet what Happens. That is
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  Speaker 1: no bigger island game than the super Bowl. I want
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  Speaker 1: to have Nick tell people what the advantage is. You've
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: also seen Nick. I'm convinced me he'll be on the
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  Speaker 1: Super Bowl show. He crushes it with the luck rankings. Nick,
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  Speaker 1: welcome to the show. Immediately. Just tell people the advantages
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: of halftime betting, how they can profit. It's my favorite
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  Speaker 1: show that we've produced at Action Network Bell.
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  Speaker 5: What Happens Live is awesome.
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  Speaker 6: We usually go from the two minute warning through halftime
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  Speaker 6: and we're just firing off live bets. I have built
• 31:38
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• 31:43
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  Speaker 5: Just fire off bets.
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  Speaker 6: Whenever the model shows value, it looks at the current
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  Speaker 6: game state, score, different what the money line is, all
• 32:01
  Speaker 6: that stuff, and kind of figures out how things will
• 32:04
  Speaker 6: develop for the rest of the game. The number of
• 32:06
  Speaker 6: expected plays each team's.
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: Pass run ratio, et cetera.
• 32:10
  Speaker 6: And we've bet and I have to say this, I'm
• 32:13
  Speaker 6: really excited because we have found this year in the
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: Action Network Discord. So if you want to join Discord
• 32:21
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  Speaker 6: ma'be doing these bet what Happens live shows. We have
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: found an edge that has hit in one hundred percent
• 32:29
  Speaker 6: of the playoff games and has hit like eighty percent
• 32:32
  Speaker 6: year and my model shows it's about a seventy five
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: eighty percent bet every time we bet it and the
• 32:38
  Speaker 6: books have not adjusted.
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to say what it is because we
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: can't be.
• 32:41
  Speaker 6: Given away, you know, edges like that and ruining it
• 32:44
  Speaker 6: for the biggest game of the year.
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: But everybody in the Discord knows it. And if you want.
• 32:49
  Speaker 6: To, you know, exploit that live edge with us, make
• 32:53
  Speaker 6: sure you join the disc Board. We're gonna try to
• 32:55
  Speaker 6: explore some other ways as well to air bet what
• 32:58
  Speaker 6: Happens live outside the Discord as well, but definitely join
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: the Action Network Discord.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: Speaking of Super Bowl props, a lot of people have
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: been asking when we're dropping our prop episodes featuring Nick,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, Chris Raybond, Grant Niffer. Because these have hit
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: at an obscene rate these last few Super Bowls, we're
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: doing those as two sets of Wednesday live shows. Try
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: to catch these live as these numbers get crushed as
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: soon as any of these guys talk about them. We
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: go live in the Action Network YouTube channel and on
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: Twitter at Action Network HQ Wednesday the twenty ninth and
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Wednesday February fifth. Each time we'll do a part one
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: at four pm Eastern with Doctor Nick and Grant, and
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: then part two with Raybound and Kerner at six pm.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Marcter Calendars super Bowl Props Live shows next two Wednesdays,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: four pm, six pm. Action Network YouTube page, Action Network
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: HQ on Twitter. All right, here's my question for you
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: before we get into all your luck ranking stuff, which
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: crushed by the way, like totals, we're twenty one to twelve.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: You know, over the course of the season, there's a
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: lot of turnover regression that I think is possible in
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: this game. The Eagles have a plus ten turnover margin
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: heading into the Super Bowl through the playoffs. That's the
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: best in I think twenty five years. On Sunday, the Chiefs,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: while they've won eight games prior without a turnover. They
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: had one turnover, the Bills had none. The Bills, according
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: to Mike count, had six turnover worthy plays, two new
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: interceptions from Josh Allen in the first series, and they
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: had four fumbles they were covered on their own. Do
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: you think there is some turnover regression here that could
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: play a factor in the game.
• 34:50
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's certainly possible, right, And one of
• 34:52
  Speaker 6: the things is you do make your own luck. So
• 34:54
  Speaker 6: a lot of what the Eagles did, I think it
• 34:56
  Speaker 6: was every fumble that hit the ground against the Commanders,
• 34:59
  Speaker 6: the Eagles rec So you know, there is an element
• 35:02
  Speaker 6: if you make your own luck. But when the ball
• 35:04
  Speaker 6: hits the ground, it can bounce in funny ways, So
• 35:06
  Speaker 6: there certainly is an element of luck as well that
• 35:09
  Speaker 6: you aren't creating. But look, I mean, if you're forcing fumbles,
• 35:13
  Speaker 6: you're bound to recover.
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: Some of those fumbles.
• 35:16
  Speaker 6: So if the Eagles keep forcing fumbles, that'll bode well
• 35:20
  Speaker 6: for them because they're still going to recover, you know,
• 35:22
  Speaker 6: around sixty percent of them or so. I think the
• 35:24
  Speaker 6: team that forces a fumble tends to recover around sixty
• 35:27
  Speaker 6: percent long term. But that said, yeah, certainly Eagles came
• 35:32
  Speaker 6: in over expectation versus the Commanders, Chiefs came in under
• 35:35
  Speaker 6: turnover expectation versus the Bills. But that's also, you know,
• 35:39
  Speaker 6: just each team's most recent game, so you got to
• 35:42
  Speaker 6: kind of look at the longer term statistics and probably
• 35:47
  Speaker 6: a little bit of luck favoring the Eagles, so they've
• 35:49
  Speaker 6: been a little bit more lucky than the Chiefs and
• 35:51
  Speaker 6: the turnover department. But you know, to me, it's not
• 35:54
  Speaker 6: a super major factor in luck specifically for this game.
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: How did the luck rankings grade this game?
• 36:06
  Speaker 6: Yeah, this is an interesting one the luck rankings. These
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: two teams are one spot apart in our luck rankings,
• 36:13
  Speaker 6: so there's no luck edge on the side and the
• 36:18
  Speaker 6: luck total and in the playoffs, anything above a one
• 36:22
  Speaker 6: and a quarter below minus one and a quarter would
• 36:25
  Speaker 6: be a luckover or a luck under. Well, this game
• 36:28
  Speaker 6: is minus zero point one, so no.
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: Luck on either. And here's the funny thing. Two years
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: ago when these teams.
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: Played, they were one place apart and the luck total
• 36:39
  Speaker 6: was minus zero point one. It is a repeat of
• 36:43
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty two, which is incredible. I couldn't believe it
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: when I saw that.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Well Son and to me, that kind of plays into
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: your theory exactly, like this is a grinded out last
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: team with the ball potentially wins, and we're kind of
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: just betting that the Chiefs will be the last ones
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: with the ball.
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: I guess yeah.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: And it kind of scares of what Nick talking about
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: because that last time they played in the Super Bowl,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: obviously that was an easy over. That game went way over.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: So to me, what he talked about, though, touch a
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: litt bit on that I expect from both teams is
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: red zone regression. Right there both have just been scoring
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: a ton of touchdowns in the red zone, where the
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: Eagles are not that team, right, They're usually a team
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: that it does struggle once they get in the red zone.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: This past season, right this playoffs have been much better.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: And on the flip side, the Chiefs, it's been insane
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: how that much they've just been scoring in the red zone, right,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: They've not been taking the threes that they have that
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: they did during the regular season. So to me, the
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: turn of regression is a little scary because that could
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: make for some short fields and we are talking about that,
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: but I think it playcates to both these teams that
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: they're just both quarterbacks are so smart protecting the ball
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: that they know that if they don't turn the ball over,
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: they're probably gonna win the game, right if they just
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: put their team in the best position. So that is
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: kind of the weird part with this Eagles team is
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: that I do think they've been really lucky with the turnovers.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: But like Nick said, they've been making their own looks right.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: They've been going after the ball. They've been punching the
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: ball out, not just in that snow game, but in
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: that last game against Washington on the flip side, Washington
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: was trying to punch the ball and they just couldn't
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: do it right. That's the type of thing it is
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, when you have an all
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: pro like Saquon, you can punch all you want. The
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: dude is so strong that boy ain't coming out. So
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: I agree they had been lucky, but it's definitely the
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: players that have in the field that make that luck.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: One more thing that plays to why I like the
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Chiefs is I do think if it's a close game
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: and they get the ball with four minutes left, I
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: don't have a ton of confidence the Eagles are getting
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: the ball back to me that plays into the strength
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: of who the Chiefs are and why you want to
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: be on the side of the Chiefs. Nick, I don't
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: know if you have any thoughts yet. I know you're
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: gonna have thoughts on props that I want to get to.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: But like, have you thought about the side or the
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: total in this game independent of the luck rankings?
• 39:07
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean in terms of satura are total. It's
• 39:10
  Speaker 6: the thing that keeps printing is those Chiefs second half unders.
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: Even in that high.
• 39:15
  Speaker 6: Scoring game against the Bills just this last week, if
• 39:17
  Speaker 6: you got your twenty four and a half, if you
• 39:19
  Speaker 6: got the under twenty four and a half, it landed
• 39:21
  Speaker 6: on twenty four, right, And I talked about that. On't
• 39:23
  Speaker 6: convinced me get that twenty four and a half at
• 39:25
  Speaker 6: minus one twenty if you got to pay for it,
• 39:28
  Speaker 6: and it landed on twenty four. But the Eagles they're
• 39:30
  Speaker 6: a possession team, right. They possessed the ball thirty two
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: minutes per game number one in the NFL. And then
• 39:34
  Speaker 6: the Chiefs, like you said, in the second half, if
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: they have the ball, they're gonna make it so the
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: Eagles don't.
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: Get the ball back.
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: So I think a second half under if you want
• 39:45
  Speaker 6: to go with you the luck totals minus zero point one.
• 39:47
  Speaker 6: There's no luck on the over or the under, and
• 39:50
  Speaker 6: in the Super Bowl. Since we have started our luck
• 39:53
  Speaker 6: rankings in twenty eighteen, the luck total anytime it's been
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: above or below minus one and a half or plus
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: or sorry one in a quarter or plus one in
• 40:01
  Speaker 6: a quarter has hit. The only one that didn't hit
• 40:05
  Speaker 6: was this minus point one two years ago when it
• 40:07
  Speaker 6: went over. So don't factor in the luck. Just analyze
• 40:10
  Speaker 6: this game on its own merits, because the luck rank
• 40:13
  Speaker 6: can say nothing about it. But those second half unders
• 40:16
  Speaker 6: for the Chiefs just keep printing this year.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: And the only reason I didn't make the over under,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: my Simon says, is just because you can be patient
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: with this total. Like we talked about it, it's heavy over
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: public money right now, and in professional betters are taking
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: the over. So to me, I mean Nick Tuckle the
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: time about key numbers. This could go through a key
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: number of fifty to fifty one and a half, like
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: you might if you're patient, or you might be able
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: to get a really nice number. Obviously, if you want
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: to take it now for nine and a half, I
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: have no issue. That's a great number to get this
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: under on. But I think what Nick's talking about here
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: is that you can afford to be patient. If you
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: like that second half under, you might get another extra
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: point if you keep waiting. The public keeps hamming this over.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: So it's really interesting. All the money right now, it's
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: just all of it. Any book you look at I'm
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: looking at is on the over, So it's interesting. Cha
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: had to tell it at forty nine and a half.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: We're two days in. It's just holding.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'm actually shocked, right it opened at fifty
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: and a half, immediately got that down. Hasn't gone up
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: from the forty nine and a half number. These numbers
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: are all basically painted like everyone's minus in one and
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: a half, everyone's forty nine and a half. Which is
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: why I'm going to be really curious to see if
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: it budges. I don't You're right, Simon. If it's gonna budge,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: it'll be much closer to the weekend, potentially Sunday afternoon,
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: four o'clock, when half of New Orleans is piling into
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: a legal sports book somewhere or hammering their apps, including
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: bet three sixty five because it's legal in Louisiana, and
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: they are just going bonkers betting the over, you know,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: and potentially betting the Chiefs, which sets up you know,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: let's say it does get to three. By the way,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: let's say it does get to three. At that point,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: if you've bet the one and a half, we throw
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: a little on the Eagles at plus three and try
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: to get the middle.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, even if you're trying to play the middle, you
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: can do it at two and a half. Right, the
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: three doesn't matter so much you're around the push. But
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: I think the books have made their move at this point.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: The only way I can see this going now is flipping.
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: I don't think maybe I'll get to two. I don't
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: think i'll touch two and a half. I could see
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: this either flipping or just staying one a half at
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: this point, just because they found the resistance right when
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: they moved down from two to one and a half.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: That just shows the resistance of really smart money coming
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: on the Eagles. So I think the books are gonna
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: be happy in their position.
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Hi, Nick, you've already identified some props. I know that
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: you're racing through your research. Give me some ideas here
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: what you're looking at so far?
• 42:47
  Speaker 6: Yeah, well, you know, obviously the game's just finished on Sunday,
• 42:50
  Speaker 6: Yesterdays Monday, so I spent all of yesterday breaking down
• 42:53
  Speaker 6: this Chief's offense. Where are these receivers going to line up?
• 42:57
  Speaker 6: Who are they going to line up against? Things that nature?
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: But before you do that, before you explain that, I
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: started to interrupt you. But like, I know what that
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: looks like for Simon, and I know what that looks
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: like for me. But you come at this from an
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: entirely different perspective as a mathematician. So what does it
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: mean when you say you were looking at this game
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: trying to see where receivers are going to line up?
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: Are you watching film? How are you thinking about the
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: process here?
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: Yeah, not film, a lot of numbers, right, So are
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: you lining up in the slot? Are you lining up
• 43:31
  Speaker 6: out wide, inline, backfield, those kinds of things. So where
• 43:35
  Speaker 6: on the field are you positioning or are the receivers
• 43:38
  Speaker 6: positioning themselves? But then I'm also looking at things like
• 43:41
  Speaker 6: pressure rates. So certain receivers get targeted more when the
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: quarterback is under pressure when Mahomes is under pressure, and
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: certain receivers get targeted less when he's under pressure. Additionally,
• 43:53
  Speaker 6: you look at coverages. So if the opposing defense is
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: playing a too high safety shell versus a single high safety,
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: certain receivers get targeted in different ways. So all those
• 44:03
  Speaker 6: things kind of get factored together and you mold those
• 44:06
  Speaker 6: into a projection, and you know, that's kind of what
• 44:10
  Speaker 6: I'm looking at. So I'm not really looking at the
• 44:12
  Speaker 6: film aspect of things, just a lot of numericality stuff,
• 44:16
  Speaker 6: right that I that I'm looking you know, putting my
• 44:18
  Speaker 6: math PhD to to good work here.
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: So you're going, that's a lot of what I was
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: doing yesterday.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: You're going to like the advanced analytics sites, whether it's
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: NFL next Gen Stats or you know, pro football focused
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: places like that, that are giving you the percentages of
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: where players are lining up.
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: You're flowing that into a model. You're running your model,
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera.
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: Okay, exactly, Yeah, that's one hundred percent, right.
• 44:41
  Speaker 6: And so when you do that, you know one of
• 44:43
  Speaker 6: the things I noticed, which of course everybody knows, these
• 44:46
  Speaker 6: Eagles cornerbacks are amazing, right, You got Quingyan, Mitchell, Darius Slay,
• 44:50
  Speaker 6: Cooper de Gene. These guys allow targets at such a
• 44:55
  Speaker 6: low rate because they produce such awesome coverage that what
• 45:00
  Speaker 6: that does, even though the Eagles don't generate a ton
• 45:03
  Speaker 6: of pressure, they generate the fifth lowest pressure rate in
• 45:05
  Speaker 6: the regular season, it still forces quarterbacks to scramble. We
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: talk about the coverage sack, well, these are the coverage
• 45:12
  Speaker 6: scrambles that the Eagles force.
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: So they either get coverage sacks.
• 45:16
  Speaker 6: Because even though they are the fifth lowest pressure rate,
• 45:18
  Speaker 6: they're about mid tier in terms of sack rate, so
• 45:21
  Speaker 6: that means coverage sacks, but they also allow coverage scrambles.
• 45:25
  Speaker 6: And whether it's a coverage sack or coverage scramble, it
• 45:28
  Speaker 6: does two things. It takes away a pass attempt from
• 45:31
  Speaker 6: the quarterback that would have been a pass attempt right
• 45:34
  Speaker 6: and it eats clock because if you're scrambling, the clock's
• 45:37
  Speaker 6: gonna run, or if you get sacked, the clock is
• 45:39
  Speaker 6: going to run. Both of those things help an under
• 45:42
  Speaker 6: so chat. I don't know if you want to give
• 45:44
  Speaker 6: me my favorite player prop, but I'm kind of hitting
• 45:47
  Speaker 6: at it. It's Patrick Mahomes under thirty six and a
• 45:50
  Speaker 6: half passing attempts.
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: You can get it.
• 45:52
  Speaker 6: Minus one nineteen I think is the best out there.
• 45:54
  Speaker 6: A lot of minus one twenties. I have Patrick Mahomes
• 45:58
  Speaker 6: projected for between thirty four and a half thirty five
• 46:01
  Speaker 6: as my average number in the model. I went over
• 46:04
  Speaker 6: to Sean Kerner. I was like, are you shown val
• 46:06
  Speaker 6: on this? Because I am, And He's like, yeah, I've
• 46:08
  Speaker 6: got this closer to thirty five. So we're both showing
• 46:11
  Speaker 6: value on this under thirty six and a half pass
• 46:13
  Speaker 6: attempts for Mahomes.
• 46:15
  Speaker 5: A couple other reasons why I like it. The Eagles,
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: we talked about it.
• 46:18
  Speaker 6: Number one in possession time of possession thirty two minutes
• 46:20
  Speaker 6: per game right around there. Give her take a little bit.
• 46:24
  Speaker 6: If the Eagles are possessing the ball, Mahomes can't be
• 46:26
  Speaker 6: throwing it and Mahomes is looking to run in the
• 46:30
  Speaker 6: playoff house, right, They protect him in the regular season,
• 46:33
  Speaker 6: and we've seen this even with certain play calls. There's
• 46:36
  Speaker 6: play calls that the Bills didn't even see on film
• 46:38
  Speaker 6: all year that the Chiefs ran in that game versus
• 46:41
  Speaker 6: the Bills. The Chiefs really open things up in the
• 46:43
  Speaker 6: playoffs because they no longer need to protect Mahomes. The
• 46:46
  Speaker 6: goals to win the Super Bowl Mahomes seven and eleven
• 46:49
  Speaker 6: rushing attempts in the two playoff games. Those are his
• 46:51
  Speaker 6: two highest rushing attempt totals of the whole season, So
• 46:56
  Speaker 6: if he's running a few extra times, that's taking away
• 46:58
  Speaker 6: pass attempts. Holmes is average thirty five point one pass
• 47:02
  Speaker 6: attempts on the year, twenty five and a half in
• 47:05
  Speaker 6: the playoffs, and the Eagles only allow thirty one point
• 47:09
  Speaker 6: eight pass attempts per game. So a lot of things
• 47:11
  Speaker 6: pointing to the under thirty six and a half pass
• 47:13
  Speaker 6: attempts for Mahomes.
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: What do you think of that? Simon?
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: Love it. I mean, remember I'll not convince me. Anytime
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: I had to do prior props. Almost always went to
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: the quarterback completion because you can find a lot of
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: value on a lot of different quarterbacks. This year, obviously,
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: I was always hanmering Anthony richardson unders. It was really
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: profitable depend on their match. If you knew that the
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Culture were going to win, it was basically easy money
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: just to set of bedding the spread. You just take
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: his under completions because they just would run the ball
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: anytime they did win. So I love the thinking you're with, Nick,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: especially the fact that this is going to be bumped
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: up because it's the books taking the season average of Mahomes.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: Matter of factory what Nick just talked about in the playoffs,
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: Mahomes runs it much more like something that they can't quantify.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: So to me, I love to play because we know
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: both teams are going to lead the clock, which means
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: less possessions, which means less time throwing the ball. So
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: love this opening one from Nick.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Also, it correlates to what we would like to happen
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: if Patrick Mahomes is throwing it less than chances are
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs are doing. Yeah, okay, uh doctor Nick, what's
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: another one?
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Uh?
• 48:17
  Speaker 6: Well, that's the only prop I've got so far. I
• 48:19
  Speaker 6: did bet yesterday a Xavier Worthy as GP. I took
• 48:23
  Speaker 6: his under five and a half receptions and I parlayed
• 48:25
  Speaker 6: it with his touchdown. So a little anti correlation there.
• 48:29
  Speaker 6: I'm showing value on his under five and a half
• 48:31
  Speaker 6: and I'm showing value as anytime touchdown. So if I'm
• 48:34
  Speaker 6: showing value on both, why not parlay them and get
• 48:36
  Speaker 6: that extra boost and odds because of the negative correlation.
• 48:40
  Speaker 6: Uh So that's the only other bet I have made
• 48:44
  Speaker 6: so far for the Super Bowl. After this podcast, I'm
• 48:47
  Speaker 6: gonna be diving into the Eagles side of the ball.
• 48:50
  Speaker 6: Uh And you know, I'm sure we'll have some Eagles props.
• 48:53
  Speaker 6: Got the prop a Palooza show tomorrow, like you said,
• 48:55
  Speaker 6: So I got to get on those Eagles props as
• 48:57
  Speaker 6: well and have something for that show.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: What do you think about this matchup for Travis Kelcey
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: where we've seen the Eagles the one place you get attack.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: I mean we talked last week. I think everyone action
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: loved Earth's last week and he ended up having what
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: one hundred yards shit done of catches. Week before that,
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: we saw Higbee have a good game against the Eagles.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Even the backup number two tight end had a good
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: game against he Go. I think he scored a touchdown
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: against the Eagles. Are you using a ton of value
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: right on Travis kelser Is that market just dead because
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: of who he is and what the betting public does
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: with with Travis kels Because I haven't bet it yet,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: I'm just wonder you're coming from your numbers, are saying
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: this is a good spot or is this a spot
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: just to avoid Travis Kelceer props?
• 49:34
  Speaker 6: This is this is interesting because it's Travis Kelcey, right,
• 49:36
  Speaker 6: I mean, he's dating Taylor Swift, you'd think the public's
• 49:39
  Speaker 6: going to be hammering his over, so there wouldn't be
• 49:42
  Speaker 6: value on us over. But last I checked, which admittedly
• 49:44
  Speaker 6: was yesterday, I was showing some value on Travis kelce
• 49:47
  Speaker 6: over on his receptions, which is mind boggling when you
• 49:52
  Speaker 6: think about where the public usually is. So maybe I'll
• 49:54
  Speaker 6: end up joining the public. I haven't bet it yet myself,
• 49:57
  Speaker 6: because it's less than a five percent edge that I
• 50:00
  Speaker 6: have on it, but you're right. I mean, he lines
• 50:03
  Speaker 6: up out wide very little in the playoffs. He's out
• 50:07
  Speaker 6: lined up out wide seven percent on the right, six
• 50:09
  Speaker 6: percent on the left, in the slot thirty three percent,
• 50:12
  Speaker 6: but more than half his snaps come either in line
• 50:15
  Speaker 6: or in other spots on the field that he's going
• 50:17
  Speaker 6: to be avoiding those Eagles top three cornerbacks and so
• 50:21
  Speaker 6: they'll end up targeting Travis Kelcey quite a bunch, and
• 50:24
  Speaker 6: I think this is a very good spot for Travis Kelcey.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: Doctor Nick, I like that you mentioned Xavier Worthy. You
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: know that was a big one for convincing me this
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: week that the touchdown projections that you and Kerner have
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: been doing all season have been crushing it. So I
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: like the idea of that Xavier worthy under five and
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: a half receptions plus in any time touchdown. He's getting
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: more and more into the offense, obviously getting more and
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: more target share. Got inches away two weeks ago, got
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: in there last week.
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: Very good one.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Look, if you're listening to the show, you know that
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: the Luck rankings are a regular reference point for us.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we could have Doctor nickon to break it
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: down a little bit more from a luck perspective.
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: Thanks Doctor Nick, of course.
• 51:15
  Speaker 6: Glad to join you guys, and ready for that twenty
• 51:18
  Speaker 6: twenty two rerunch. By the way, Simon, congrats to your
• 51:21
  Speaker 6: eagles against my commanders. Did feel the pain a little bit,
• 51:25
  Speaker 6: just like our producer for the Buffalo Bill's side of
• 51:29
  Speaker 6: things as well.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: You'll always have the hard rock brother.
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: That's right, that's funny.
• 51:37
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