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Martin Hawes: Don't start a small business · The SME Stream

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Weekend Collective. I'm Tim Beveridge, and
0:03
Speaker 1: if you're missing in the previous hours, I would recommend
0:05
Speaker 1: going to check out the podcast Fantastic Chat with Alex
0:08
Speaker 1: Flint there just about getting your exercise habit started and
0:12
Speaker 1: and all of that should I say, But anyway, you
0:14
Speaker 1: can check out the Weekend Collective podcast at iHeartRadio. Right now,
0:17
Speaker 1: it is time for smart Money and my guest, well
0:20
Speaker 1: he needs no introduction, really, Martin Ores. How you doing?
0:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, Tim, very well?
0:25
Speaker 1: Thinked if you got a business card, that's one who
0:28
Speaker 1: has a business card. But you could probably just write
0:30
Speaker 1: financial guru, can't you.
0:31
Speaker 2: I don't have.
0:32
Speaker 3: A big business card, and if I had one, what
0:35
Speaker 3: would probably financial writer and financial speaker.
0:39
Speaker 1: Oh well, that's not as much fun as guru. I
0:42
Speaker 1: like guru.
0:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I like as well.
0:45
Speaker 1: Maybe it's promising too much. It's a little bit SI.
0:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could be.
0:49
Speaker 1: Reminded of how many books have you written?
0:51
Speaker 2: I've written twenty three books.
0:53
Speaker 3: I've actually written twenty four because I handed the manuscript
0:57
Speaker 3: of my twenty fourth book into the publishers a couple
1:01
Speaker 3: of weeks ago and doing their thing on it. At
1:03
Speaker 3: the moment it won't be out till next year or so,
1:07
Speaker 3: but that'll been number twenty four.
1:10
Speaker 1: What how I can look. I can imagine someone going,
1:14
Speaker 1: I've got a book in me and I'm going to
1:15
Speaker 1: start writing it. And you've done twenty three. And now,
1:18
Speaker 1: as you say, twenty four is not out yet, but
1:20
Speaker 1: you've written it. Yeah, what motivated number twenty four?
1:25
Speaker 3: About five years ago I had a real old disruption
1:29
Speaker 3: of my life and I left Queenstown, where i'd lived
1:31
Speaker 3: for twenty odd years, and moved to christ Church, which
1:34
Speaker 3: is where I live now. And you know, whenever you
1:36
Speaker 3: have a big disruption in your life, you meant to
1:38
Speaker 3: go through your finances, aspect by aspect, all the different things.
1:42
Speaker 3: And I did that and I made a new well.
1:45
Speaker 3: I wound up the family trust that I've had. I
1:50
Speaker 3: got my investments managed by someone else. And it was
1:54
Speaker 3: such an interesting process which happened over two or three years,
1:58
Speaker 3: that I thought I would just be right up. So
2:00
Speaker 3: the book is partly biographical, but it's partly also advice.
2:04
Speaker 3: Here are the things that I did, and here are
2:07
Speaker 3: the thing Here's how it worked out warts and all. Wow,
2:13
Speaker 3: made a few mistakes, and yeah, and doing that well
2:16
Speaker 3: they weren't really mistakes. One of the things I did
2:19
Speaker 3: was I canceled my health insurance to self insure, and
2:26
Speaker 3: I put aside, you know, quite a sizable sum of money.
2:29
Speaker 3: And the idea was that I would pay what had
2:31
Speaker 3: used to be the equivalent of the premiums into a.
2:36
Speaker 1: Get ahead of it yep.
2:38
Speaker 3: And within three months of doing this, I was under
2:42
Speaker 3: the knife, having having an operation, and then a month
2:45
Speaker 3: after that I had another operation.
2:47
Speaker 1: Did you spend it all?
2:50
Speaker 2: No? No, I haven't spent.
2:52
Speaker 3: I've still still got a bit of back up there,
2:54
Speaker 3: and I can afford to self insure. I mean, it
2:57
Speaker 3: would be a disaster for somebody who hadn't put the
3:01
Speaker 3: money aside and such like. And you know, I'm of
3:04
Speaker 3: an age retirement age where I see a lot of
3:07
Speaker 3: people who ask questions about health insurance because getting as
3:11
Speaker 3: you get older, it gets really really expensive.
3:14
Speaker 1: That is a problem. Isn't it actually funny? As you
3:16
Speaker 1: were talking about that and saving it, I have you
3:18
Speaker 1: still got it? And I was thinking of that black
3:19
Speaker 1: added quote when somebody stolen some money from Baldrick and
3:22
Speaker 1: he goes, what about that tuppence? It was under my
3:24
Speaker 1: pillow and he goes, seen it, pinched it, spent it.
3:27
Speaker 1: I was wondering, if you're about to deliver that line
3:30
Speaker 1: on your health insurance.
3:31
Speaker 3: No, no, no, there's still some money there so and
3:35
Speaker 3: you know, health insurance, you know it's important to some people,
3:39
Speaker 3: but it's mostly about Q jumping. I've had a bit
3:43
Speaker 3: of experience now in both the public and the private system,
3:47
Speaker 3: and the public system is slow to get into it.
3:50
Speaker 1: But it's fantastic when you're in.
3:51
Speaker 3: But it's fantastic once you're in there.
3:53
Speaker 1: Way, I didn't realize that, Pete. The really good surgeons
3:56
Speaker 1: I've learnt this probably in the last few years, but
3:58
Speaker 1: the really good surgeons have a public They work in public.
4:00
Speaker 1: It was to be the public, you have to be
4:02
Speaker 1: the best. And so if you're looking for a private surgeon,
4:05
Speaker 1: look for one who's also in the public system. And
4:09
Speaker 1: you're you're away. But it's Q jumping. Yes, you're right,
4:12
Speaker 1: But if you've got a dodgy knee, then you know.
4:14
Speaker 2: Then you want it done. Yeah, yep.
4:17
Speaker 1: Hey, Actually you have distracted me with that talk about
4:20
Speaker 1: health insurance.
4:20
Speaker 2: Becau.
4:20
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about small businesses and we will
4:22
Speaker 1: do it. But I just wanted to ask when you
4:25
Speaker 1: are paying for it yourself, do you have do you
4:29
Speaker 1: try and haggle? You know, it's like when they say
4:32
Speaker 1: you've got to go into this private hospital and they
4:34
Speaker 1: say it's going to be so much a night, and
4:35
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, come on, give me a break. I'll
4:38
Speaker 1: give you such and such.
4:40
Speaker 3: I don't I don't think there's any haggle room in
4:43
Speaker 3: there whatever. I'd love to say, yeah, I got fifteen
4:48
Speaker 3: percent off, but they just presented me with the price
4:53
Speaker 3: that here's the surgeon's fee, here's the anethethus fee, here's
4:56
Speaker 3: the hospital fee, here's the theater fee. That's They never
5:01
Speaker 3: said take it. They never said take it or leave it.
5:03
Speaker 1: But was it a fun Did you look at it
5:05
Speaker 1: and go, yeah, it's.
5:07
Speaker 3: Well they warned me it was it. But it's a
5:09
Speaker 3: fair bit of money, you know. One well, they were
5:12
Speaker 3: both about fourteen thousand dollars each, so you know I
5:16
Speaker 3: took a suit thousand dollars.
5:18
Speaker 1: That sounds like a hip and a knee.
5:20
Speaker 2: No, No, it wasn't.
5:21
Speaker 1: Ni okay, no, no's going on. Don't don't tell us,
5:25
Speaker 1: we don't. I'm not going to ask. I'm not going
5:27
Speaker 1: to you know, we're not going to push it any further. Hey,
5:30
Speaker 1: I wanted to have a chat about stuffening about small businesses.
5:35
Speaker 1: And when I say small businesses, I mean I don't
5:37
Speaker 1: know how we define a small business. There is a
5:39
Speaker 1: particular definition, isn't it? In fact for some people. If
5:42
Speaker 1: you some small businesses, if you described it to the
5:45
Speaker 1: average punter, there'd be like that sounds like a pretty
5:47
Speaker 1: big deal to me. And there have been a lot
5:49
Speaker 1: of headlines around recently about the number of businesses that
5:52
Speaker 1: are folding. We've seen the very public ones, of course,
5:56
Speaker 1: when people just notice that their favorite restaurant is no
5:58
Speaker 1: longer there. We've seen some, you know, some fairly well
6:01
Speaker 1: known establishments that have suddenly disappeared. But of course there
6:06
Speaker 1: will be people who set up small businesses at times
6:09
Speaker 1: like this, because if you've got a good idea, then
6:11
Speaker 1: you don't want to wait around, have you? Are there
6:15
Speaker 1: some basics when it comes to small businesses on what
6:19
Speaker 1: you can absolutely get right and what you can absolutely
6:24
Speaker 1: get wrong. And sometimes I don't know if it's just
6:27
Speaker 1: a question of luck either, because I've spoken to small
6:30
Speaker 1: people who just about every small business person I've ever
6:33
Speaker 1: spoken to will say, in fact, I've even done a
6:36
Speaker 1: couple of things myself where I've looked back and gone, well,
6:38
Speaker 1: thank goodness X didn't happen because I wouldn't have been
6:42
Speaker 1: ready for it. And a lot of them will say, oh,
6:45
Speaker 1: my goodness, if I'd known, if I had known how
6:49
Speaker 1: hard it was, I never would have even done it,
6:51
Speaker 1: And yet here I am a success. So can we
6:54
Speaker 1: distill that into some basic dos and don'ts for small business?
6:58
Speaker 3: Big Core Martin, Yeah, yeah, it is actually, And you're
7:01
Speaker 3: right about the definition of a small business. There are definitions.
7:05
Speaker 3: I think in New Zealand it's under maybe fifty staff
7:09
Speaker 3: something something like that.
7:10
Speaker 1: If you have forty staff, that's massive.
7:14
Speaker 2: And I may I may have that wrong.
7:15
Speaker 3: It might be twenty, but it's something like that, whereas
7:18
Speaker 3: in the US it's it's five hundred and so forth.
7:22
Speaker 3: But you know, a lot of them to pretty marginal
7:25
Speaker 3: sort of operations, and a lot of them, I would argue,
7:29
Speaker 3: aren't really businesses at all. Paid actually was paid hobbies. Yeah,
7:34
Speaker 3: and that's one of the don'ts. You know, it's not
7:37
Speaker 3: necessarily a thing that you've got to love, but it's
7:40
Speaker 3: largely self employment, you know, So if you imagine a
7:43
Speaker 3: trade or myself. I was self employed. I wasn't really
7:47
Speaker 3: I didn't have a business. You know, I could have
7:51
Speaker 3: had a business and I could have built up a
7:52
Speaker 3: financial advisory practice with fifty staff and so on, but
7:58
Speaker 3: I quite deliberately, consciously decided not to because I want
8:02
Speaker 3: a better lifestyle than that. I'd argue a lot of
8:06
Speaker 3: a lot of small business owners don't have great lifestyle.
8:10
Speaker 3: That is, you know, they not only have to carry
8:13
Speaker 3: on with their trades, but they've also got a market
8:16
Speaker 3: that they've got to give quotes, they've got to do
8:18
Speaker 3: the books, they've got to do all those other other aspects,
8:21
Speaker 3: and they actually find they have very little life at all.
8:25
Speaker 3: I think the number one bit of advice I would
8:27
Speaker 3: give to people is to start with the end in mind,
8:31
Speaker 3: so to start thinking about how is this going to
8:34
Speaker 3: play out? And ideally you want to be able to
8:38
Speaker 3: sell your business for preferably serious money. So you build something,
8:43
Speaker 3: you take all the risk, you live, eat and breathe
8:46
Speaker 3: your small but business and most small business people do.
8:50
Speaker 3: You want a really good payoff at it. So you've
8:53
Speaker 3: got to think about who's going to buy this business,
8:57
Speaker 3: and what are these people who are going to buy
8:59
Speaker 3: the business. What are they going to be looking for?
9:02
Speaker 3: And the answer to that, in almost all cases is
9:05
Speaker 3: that they will seamlessly keep the profit going. That is,
9:10
Speaker 3: from day one when you're the owner. Today too, when
9:14
Speaker 3: the other person is the owner, the profits keep flowing.
9:17
Speaker 3: And that means that you don't have your name on
9:20
Speaker 3: the door. You're not you know, the business is not
9:22
Speaker 3: dependent on you. You don't have your name online, so
9:27
Speaker 3: that you're the number one person in whatever the field is.
9:31
Speaker 3: The other thing I'd say is that hospo is something
9:34
Speaker 3: that a lot of people go into. Somebody described that
9:38
Speaker 3: about thirty years to me, they have this little vision
9:41
Speaker 3: of themselves standing around the bar at lunch time with
9:44
Speaker 3: a five ounce glass of beer. This is when we
9:46
Speaker 3: had five ounce glasses of beer. And they see themselves
9:50
Speaker 3: as being my host and that sort of thing. Most
9:53
Speaker 3: hospo is bloody hard work, actually, And it's not only hard.
10:00
Speaker 1: You've got all the stuff and that your mind host
10:01
Speaker 1: and you're going around the table saying hi, and everyone's
10:04
Speaker 1: going hey, hey, you going Martin, And I'm loving, loving,
10:07
Speaker 1: loving your chef's work today. And as opposed to.
10:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a snail in my cello, so so and
10:16
Speaker 3: so hasn't turned up again. Not very difficult businesses to run,
10:20
Speaker 3: and I know they're quite high profile and you really
10:23
Speaker 3: do notice when your local cafe closers. But I suspect
10:28
Speaker 3: I've never seen numbers on it, but I suspect that
10:32
Speaker 3: more hospital hospitality businesses cease to be helped we polite
10:39
Speaker 3: and then most other business sites.
10:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting that you you would an unsurprising I
10:47
Speaker 1: guess that you'd say you have a think about the
10:49
Speaker 1: endgame where do you want to end up? Because there
10:51
Speaker 1: be many people who end up. Maybe I should also
10:54
Speaker 1: include self employed, but that's usually just only responsible to yourself.
10:57
Speaker 1: But let's say small business that a lot of peoples
10:59
Speaker 1: might have would simply start from I want to be
11:03
Speaker 1: my own boss and nothing more. That would be very common,
11:07
Speaker 1: I managed, wouldn't it.
11:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's very common, and yes you might be
11:13
Speaker 3: your own boss. But the staff not turning up are also,
11:17
Speaker 3: in a funny sort of way, you're your boss as well.
11:20
Speaker 3: They certainly motivate you to do things. It's it's a
11:25
Speaker 3: tough road to hoe.
11:26
Speaker 2: I love you know.
11:27
Speaker 3: I mean, there used to be lots of figures around
11:31
Speaker 3: about in seventy percent of small businesses failing within the
11:34
Speaker 3: first five years, and I've got I don't know whether
11:37
Speaker 3: that right or not.
11:37
Speaker 1: There are those spectacular figures though there that there's so
11:40
Speaker 1: many defail aren't they. I don't know what the stats
11:42
Speaker 1: are either. I could probably look up a meme somewhere
11:44
Speaker 1: there'll be.
11:46
Speaker 3: I'm not sure I trust them all that much. I
11:49
Speaker 3: wouldn't know where they where they where they come from.
11:51
Speaker 3: But it's for a lot of people. It is very
11:55
Speaker 3: hard work. It's sixty hours a week, it's seventy hours
11:58
Speaker 3: a week. Being your own boss often comes at a price.
12:01
Speaker 3: And the other thing tim is there if you go
12:06
Speaker 3: into business and you put capital into that business, whether
12:09
Speaker 3: whether it's a relatively small amount because you know it's
12:11
Speaker 3: for tools and that sort of thing, or whether it's
12:13
Speaker 3: a big amount and you take on a lease for
12:15
Speaker 3: the hospitality business and so forth, you need to get
12:19
Speaker 3: a return on both your time and your capital. Yeah,
12:25
Speaker 3: and a lot of a lot of small businesses don't
12:28
Speaker 3: get a return on either.
12:29
Speaker 2: Actually they're not often terribly profitable.
12:33
Speaker 1: Well, that's the other thing. If you speak to small
12:35
Speaker 1: business owners, they might tell you, and that's what often
12:38
Speaker 1: comes up when they're when the government's sticking another responsibility
12:42
Speaker 1: on employers, and how employers will say, well, listen, everyone
12:45
Speaker 1: thinks I'm living on the pig's back, but I haven't
12:47
Speaker 1: paid myself a wage for eighteen months. I think we
12:50
Speaker 1: heard a lot of that obviously through COVID.
12:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I've been pretty negative to the other
12:58
Speaker 3: side of it. You know, there are there are joyous
13:02
Speaker 3: examples of people A making a lot of money and
13:06
Speaker 3: B having a very very good lifestyle.
13:08
Speaker 1: So what, okay, is there a simple reason why why
13:13
Speaker 1: so many fail? And and what's the difference between the
13:17
Speaker 1: ones that become a roaring success? Is it just that
13:19
Speaker 1: they've had a great idea.
13:21
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot about that.
13:22
Speaker 3: I think that, you know, it's it's what they go into,
13:26
Speaker 3: it's how they manage it, it's how they managed to
13:29
Speaker 3: staff it, it's how they manage the staff that they have,
13:32
Speaker 3: it's how they market it. You know, I look around
13:35
Speaker 3: the place and I do see a lot of very
13:37
Speaker 3: successful small small businesses. And then of course you know Apple,
13:42
Speaker 3: the computer people. You know Steve Jobs, they started as
13:45
Speaker 3: a micro business as the tutor pack up quite now
13:49
Speaker 3: Garret trade Me started in Sam Morgan's garage. So all
13:55
Speaker 3: these people have an idea and we only know it's
13:59
Speaker 3: a good eye there with the passing of time, is
14:02
Speaker 3: one of them.
14:03
Speaker 1: Is one of the mistakes that you might make in
14:05
Speaker 1: a small business is if you've started it with your
14:10
Speaker 1: own ambition in mind, is a stubbornness to share the
14:16
Speaker 1: to share it around. So if if you've got an
14:17
Speaker 1: idea for a business, you might not, for instance, have
14:21
Speaker 1: all the money or the capital you need, but then
14:22
Speaker 1: it's like, my idea, why should I give it to
14:24
Speaker 1: someone who's simply going to stump up with a bit
14:26
Speaker 1: of money to make it a bit easier for me?
14:28
Speaker 1: Is one of is that one of the mistakes small
14:29
Speaker 1: businesses make that they go in a bit undercooked on
14:32
Speaker 1: the financial side, but simply because they're unwilling to share
14:36
Speaker 1: in their genius.
14:38
Speaker 3: Yes, of course, taking on a partner and a business
14:41
Speaker 3: is like a second marriage to triumph of hope over experience.
14:46
Speaker 3: So it's you know, that doesn't always work out. But
14:49
Speaker 3: I always say to people that I think that you're
14:53
Speaker 3: better to have fifty percent or sixty percent of a thriving,
14:58
Speaker 3: large business than a hunt percent of something which is
15:01
Speaker 3: struggling and a lack of capital. You know, after people
15:05
Speaker 3: have mortgage to the house to put money in and
15:09
Speaker 3: managed to beg borrow of steel, bits of other other
15:13
Speaker 3: money from finance companies and things like that. After that,
15:16
Speaker 3: the capital drives up, and where do you get the
15:18
Speaker 3: expansion from. I think you've got to bring staff and
15:22
Speaker 3: to turn a small business into a medium size. To
15:25
Speaker 3: turn a medium size into a large one, you really
15:28
Speaker 3: do need capital, and that means bringing other people on.
15:32
Speaker 1: If somebody was to I mean, I don't know how
15:34
Speaker 1: much how much time you would spend advising people in
15:37
Speaker 1: small business and things, because that's a specific area of expertise,
15:39
Speaker 1: isn't it. But what would if you had a family member,
15:43
Speaker 1: for instance, he said, look, I've got a great idea.
15:45
Speaker 1: This is what I want to do. I want to
15:46
Speaker 1: enter into business. Would there be a small checklist you'd
15:49
Speaker 1: run through them, or a list of absolute musts before
15:54
Speaker 1: they even sort of take step one? Well, step one.
15:57
Speaker 4: St be talking to you, I guess not, or somebody
16:01
Speaker 4: somebody like me and I do see I have seen
16:04
Speaker 4: over the years an awful lot of small business owners.
16:08
Speaker 3: No, I wouldn't really have a checklist. I think you'd
16:11
Speaker 3: have to work through they all tend to be quite different.
16:15
Speaker 3: But I would keep coming back to that. Start with
16:19
Speaker 3: the end in mind, who's going to buy your business,
16:21
Speaker 3: what are they going to look like, what are are they.
16:23
Speaker 2: Going to look for? And what are you going to
16:26
Speaker 2: build where.
16:27
Speaker 3: You can sell your business for two million dollars and
16:30
Speaker 3: fifteen years time.
16:31
Speaker 1: That sounds nice, isn't it. Look we'd like to hear
16:35
Speaker 1: from you as well, because it's been well, it's just
16:37
Speaker 1: from my own point view, I've always been curious about
16:39
Speaker 1: setting out small businesses and what it takes because I
16:42
Speaker 1: think a lot of the time when it comes to
16:45
Speaker 1: discussions around politics and things, people like to have a
16:48
Speaker 1: crack at business owners without having an inkling on it,
16:52
Speaker 1: absolutely on how incredibly difficult and challenging it is. So
16:55
Speaker 1: if you're one of those small business owners that has
16:58
Speaker 1: either made a great fist of your business and you're
17:00
Speaker 1: doing very well, where did you go right? But also
17:03
Speaker 1: if you feel like sharing experience on something where you
17:07
Speaker 1: went wrong, because many successful business owners will probably say, look,
17:11
Speaker 1: you know, I might be successful now, but about a
17:12
Speaker 1: few failings, it give us a court. We'd love to
17:15
Speaker 1: hear your experience with Martin Hawes this is smart money
17:18
Speaker 1: and news talk, said B. It's twenty four The number
17:20
Speaker 1: is O eight hundred and eighty ten eighty of course
17:21
Speaker 1: in text on nine two nine two. But we'd love
17:24
Speaker 1: love your input. It's twenty four past five. Yes, and
17:28
Speaker 1: we're with Martin Hawes. This is smart money talking about
17:31
Speaker 1: the dos and don'ts of setting up a small business,
17:33
Speaker 1: but of a bandwidthm with Martin. But joining us is
17:36
Speaker 1: IV good day. A bit of a delay on the
17:41
Speaker 1: line there either.
17:42
Speaker 5: Hello, yeah, I'll just take you.
17:44
Speaker 6: I'll I'll just take your speaker, mm hmm. Okay, right right,
17:53
Speaker 6: you're on phone.
17:55
Speaker 1: Good.
17:56
Speaker 6: Yeah. Yeah, So you're just you're just mentioning that if
18:01
Speaker 6: you started a small business and not very successful, you'd
18:05
Speaker 6: like to hear from us.
18:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, sure, is that you?
18:09
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, yes. I started a lolly importing company with
18:18
Speaker 6: the five thousand dollars from a second man vati bike
18:21
Speaker 6: in nineteen eighty eight and sold it to my brother
18:27
Speaker 6: he's a years older than million two thousand and five
18:31
Speaker 6: for you know, into that part of the deal. It
18:34
Speaker 6: had a million dollars in the bank.
18:36
Speaker 1: Oh really, and where do you consider you went? Right?
18:44
Speaker 6: Well?
18:45
Speaker 1: Hiring staff, hiring staff.
18:50
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, yeah, lots and lots of stuff.
18:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, what did you have to hire a lot because
18:56
Speaker 1: you're said to fire a lot? What did you distill
18:59
Speaker 1: your if you a couple of.
19:03
Speaker 6: I think they only fired two people. Yeah, I had
19:08
Speaker 6: about I had about twenty workers at one stage and
19:11
Speaker 6: then talking on a fifty fifty partner and he sort
19:18
Speaker 6: of trimmed it back to ten but not fir England.
19:23
Speaker 6: Is that just saying we don't need this and that,
19:27
Speaker 6: but then actually fired not two people.
19:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, Hey, there's a bit of a delay on the
19:33
Speaker 1: line either. Unfortunately, I don't think we can because we're
19:36
Speaker 1: about five seconds behind each other. So it's going to
19:38
Speaker 1: be a bit of a different bit of a difficult conversation,
19:40
Speaker 1: which is a shame. But I guess, you know, hiring
19:42
Speaker 1: the right stuff, as you say, Martinet's the bleeding obvious,
19:45
Speaker 1: isn't it. You know, if you have bad stuff, you're screwed, and.
19:48
Speaker 3: It's one of the hardest things as well, you know,
19:51
Speaker 3: and management by yelling doesn't work anymore, you probably won't.
19:57
Speaker 3: It was suitainly a thing in the past. I think
20:01
Speaker 3: there's too probably fundamental barriers for a lot of small
20:06
Speaker 3: businesses want to be staff the other would be marketing, marketing,
20:10
Speaker 3: marketing slash sales. I guess that people often have an expertise,
20:15
Speaker 3: and it may be an expertise and plumbing or or
20:18
Speaker 3: you know, some sort of trade or something like that.
20:21
Speaker 3: What they don't necessarily have an expertise and it's hard
20:25
Speaker 3: to buy and is marketing slash sales and staff.
20:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, actually, did you see there was There was a
20:32
Speaker 1: case that not particularly any particular reason, but was there's
20:36
Speaker 1: a report in the herald about a company in Duned
20:39
Speaker 1: and that's gone. Well, they're no longer a small business.
20:41
Speaker 1: They're quite big. Who these guys decided they could design
20:44
Speaker 1: their own coffee roaster and they were one of them
20:47
Speaker 1: was software sort of expert. I can't remember the details.
20:51
Speaker 1: But now that they've gone global, they've made manufacturing thousands
20:55
Speaker 1: of coffee machines and selling them around the world.
20:58
Speaker 3: I did see something like that. It's never ceases to
21:02
Speaker 3: amaze me. The little niches, like you know, somebody important lollies,
21:07
Speaker 3: no doubt, bagging them up into different bags and putting
21:09
Speaker 3: a different label on them or whatever, and being able
21:12
Speaker 3: to make good money out of that. Similarly, with coffee roasting,
21:16
Speaker 3: you would have thought that that was a market that
21:18
Speaker 3: was pretty well penetrated and catered for, and then somebody
21:24
Speaker 3: makes a coffee roaster.
21:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I guess, And that was actually one
21:28
Speaker 1: of the story that made me ask you the question
21:31
Speaker 1: around getting capital investment on board and getting other people
21:35
Speaker 1: in stakeholders. And I think that would be one of
21:37
Speaker 1: the mistakes that people make when they're getting for successes
21:39
Speaker 1: to go no thanks, hey, look on that side, because
21:42
Speaker 1: these guys who made us, I think one of the
21:44
Speaker 1: guys who was behind it was a software engineer. One
21:46
Speaker 1: of your interests that we're going to talk about today
21:48
Speaker 1: as well was tech investments. That's my clumsy segue to
21:53
Speaker 1: talking about technic is not bad, but I'm interested asking
21:56
Speaker 1: about this because we did see some dramatic headlines the
22:01
Speaker 1: amount of money that the share price for Nvidia at
22:04
Speaker 1: one station generally has gone through the roof, hasn't it yea,
22:08
Speaker 1: And so that would attract a lot of intention attention.
22:11
Speaker 1: Are you quite curious about the teach investment market.
22:15
Speaker 3: I'm heavily weighted to it on my own portfolio. Now
22:20
Speaker 3: that my own portfolio is not exclusively tech, but it's
22:24
Speaker 3: it's certainly got a favor deteck at it and it
22:26
Speaker 3: most definitely has En Video and that's the company that
22:30
Speaker 3: makes most of the chips.
22:32
Speaker 2: For right AI.
22:33
Speaker 1: When did you vida?
22:37
Speaker 3: I think it's been in the portfolio for three or
22:39
Speaker 3: four years.
22:41
Speaker 1: On you Martin, Yeah.
22:43
Speaker 3: It should have been twenty years ago, because over twenty
22:47
Speaker 3: twenty year period, in video has returned thirty eight percent
22:52
Speaker 3: per anum how much so thirty eight? This is on
22:55
Speaker 3: average over twenty years thirty eight. If you invested and
23:00
Speaker 3: then for the twenty years ago you put your money
23:02
Speaker 3: in on listing, you have had thirty eight percent per
23:07
Speaker 3: random gains. I'll tell you another one, which I think
23:10
Speaker 3: if anything's even even better is Amazon.
23:14
Speaker 2: Now.
23:14
Speaker 3: Amazon listed on the USAir market twenty seven years ago.
23:19
Speaker 3: And if you'd come to me and you said, oh, look,
23:21
Speaker 3: you know do you know do you know Amazon? I
23:24
Speaker 3: would have said, yeah, yeah, yeah, I get a box
23:25
Speaker 3: of their books most weeks.
23:28
Speaker 1: And they started off as books, didn't they It.
23:31
Speaker 3: Was a bookseller, yeah, basically, And you know I would
23:34
Speaker 3: have said, well, you know, they're a bookseller, buy a
23:38
Speaker 3: few shares, shares if you like. But they expanded into
23:43
Speaker 3: just about everything known that you can buy and sell
23:47
Speaker 3: it happens on Amazon now. But also they've gone into
23:51
Speaker 3: nothing about a decade ago, cloud computing as well, which
23:54
Speaker 3: is a hugely profitable part of their business. They for
24:00
Speaker 3: twenty over twenty seven years, they've given a thirty three
24:04
Speaker 3: percent thirty three point five percent return per animal, So
24:10
Speaker 3: just an absolutely stunning performance. I know, I know, nothing
24:14
Speaker 3: nothing like that for such a long long period of time.
24:18
Speaker 3: But there's lots of others as well. You know, Apple
24:21
Speaker 3: twenty one percent over thirty four years, Google twenty three
24:24
Speaker 3: percent over twenty years. You know, the tech is not
24:28
Speaker 3: just beginning to contact. Tech has been around probably since
24:31
Speaker 3: the Enlightenment. That actually, but the curve is ever steepening,
24:35
Speaker 3: and there is so much disruption now and tech is
24:40
Speaker 3: becoming so front of mind that the returns are just
24:46
Speaker 3: getting astonishing, and that you know, it's not going to
24:48
Speaker 3: go away, it's going to people can keep them.
24:51
Speaker 1: Somebody's just messaged me now saying on vested in Tesla
24:53
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen and it paid for most of my
24:56
Speaker 1: house deposit in four years.
24:58
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, And I think.
24:59
Speaker 1: The the problem is there's there's a problem with with
25:02
Speaker 1: these stories though, is that it leads to this mentality
25:05
Speaker 1: that you can just pick the right spot stock you've
25:08
Speaker 1: got it made. So if you bought Amazon shares in
25:11
Speaker 1: twenty in two thousand, you could have bought them for
25:14
Speaker 1: ten cents, you know, or twelve cents, and even in
25:17
Speaker 1: two thousand and five, I can see you could have
25:20
Speaker 1: well two dollars right, and now they're worth what a
25:24
Speaker 1: couple of hundred bucks and hundred and seventy dollars seventy yeah, yeah,
25:29
Speaker 1: so yeah, not a bad not a bad return if
25:32
Speaker 1: you get on the ground level. But how many people
25:34
Speaker 1: really spot what? How do you spot the next mover? No?
25:38
Speaker 3: Nobody and tim you've got in front of me. Because
25:40
Speaker 3: that was one of the things that was going to
25:41
Speaker 3: make that I think was John Bogle said, don't go
25:44
Speaker 3: looking for a needle in a haystack. You're not going
25:48
Speaker 3: to find the one company if you if you're really
25:51
Speaker 3: interested in AI, for example, as an investor, you can't
25:55
Speaker 3: just sit back and say, so, who's the leader in
25:57
Speaker 3: IAI Well it's Microsoft, okay, so I'll put all money
26:00
Speaker 3: and Microsoft it's probably not going to work because Google
26:03
Speaker 3: could leap for them tomorrow. Instead, I think you've got
26:06
Speaker 3: to think about, well, you say, who are the producers
26:09
Speaker 3: of AI, and that's like some Microsoft from Google and
26:13
Speaker 3: a whole host of others. Who's enabling it in Vida AMD,
26:19
Speaker 3: various other companies, And who are the users? And that's
26:23
Speaker 3: like Amazon and the banks and lots and lots of
26:26
Speaker 3: different different businesses. And then you've got to you probably
26:30
Speaker 3: own thirty odd companies to get your exposure properly to AI.
26:35
Speaker 3: So you're not just going to pick one on what.
26:39
Speaker 1: Makes tech so good? I mean is it a sector
26:42
Speaker 1: that and are there vulnerabilities that if you look to
26:45
Speaker 1: the future, Because some people do like to specialize just
26:47
Speaker 1: in a particular investment sector, don't they. Yes, I mean
26:50
Speaker 1: look at New Zealand. I mean the number of people
26:52
Speaker 1: who put everything into property for instance. But I mean
26:54
Speaker 1: if you'd stuck all your money into video into tech stocks,
26:57
Speaker 1: you probably be doing all right. But what are the
27:00
Speaker 1: risks and how do you sort of how do you
27:03
Speaker 1: sort the wheat from the chaff when you're putting together
27:06
Speaker 1: a tech portfolio.
27:07
Speaker 3: I don't think you put together a tech portfolio. I
27:10
Speaker 3: think you do it through managed funds. They give you
27:14
Speaker 3: the exposure generally in that market and are.
27:17
Speaker 1: So unexciting because I want that two thousand percent gain.
27:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the returns might be only one thousand percent
27:26
Speaker 3: or five hundred percent or something like that, they will
27:28
Speaker 3: still be very good. I think that's you're you're going
27:32
Speaker 3: to look for the needle in the haystack, and if
27:34
Speaker 3: you find the needle, you'll you'd be absolutely delighted. But
27:38
Speaker 3: the chances are you're not going to find it. So
27:41
Speaker 3: I think you're much better to get wide exposure over
27:45
Speaker 3: thirty companies or even fifty companies or even one hundred
27:48
Speaker 3: companies who are associated in the in the area investing
27:52
Speaker 3: in that in that area, it's very Unless you're going
27:55
Speaker 3: to spend all day every day trying to study this,
28:00
Speaker 3: you're very unlikely to pick the winner.
28:02
Speaker 1: Okay, look I want to dig it. We're going to
28:04
Speaker 1: dig into this a little more. Actually, if you have
28:05
Speaker 1: any questions on the tech stock industry, because Martin's quite
28:08
Speaker 1: into it, and so I tend to think, while we've
28:10
Speaker 1: got the guy who's into it, who knows a little
28:12
Speaker 1: bit about finance, having written his twenty fourth book. By
28:14
Speaker 1: the way, have you got a title for it?
28:16
Speaker 2: No, I haven't.
28:18
Speaker 3: It's probably going to be entitled something like Retirement Ready,
28:22
Speaker 3: because one of the things I was really concerned about
28:25
Speaker 3: was that being of retirement age, that I could quickly
28:28
Speaker 3: and easily push the button and become retired. If that's
28:32
Speaker 3: what I wanted.
28:33
Speaker 1: To be pushing the retirement button. Yeah, that's not a
28:37
Speaker 1: bit bee you go. You can have that. You can
28:39
Speaker 1: have that for nothing. We'll be back in just a moment.
28:41
Speaker 1: It's twenty minutes to sex Newstalks. He'd be welcome back
28:47
Speaker 1: to Smart Money on the weekend collectivet and Beverage. My guest,
28:50
Speaker 1: Martin Hawes, author of twenty four twenty three coming on
28:52
Speaker 1: twenty four books. I was always about to say twenty
28:55
Speaker 1: five because I was chatting with my producer that I
28:57
Speaker 1: have an idea for your twenty fifth book, Martin, and
28:59
Speaker 1: it has Actually it's a corker and we'll talk about
29:02
Speaker 1: it later. Anyway, let's, by the way, with one bit
29:06
Speaker 1: of advice on small business, just to text here before
29:08
Speaker 1: we go to our call a Ross. This is probably
29:12
Speaker 1: quite good advice here from the small business owner, ses,
29:14
Speaker 1: we have a small business that we're about to wind up.
29:16
Speaker 1: In fact, they're seeking some legal advice which we won't
29:18
Speaker 1: be able to help with. But it says we put
29:20
Speaker 1: our house under family a family trust to protect it
29:23
Speaker 1: in case the business failed. Probably not a dumb move,
29:27
Speaker 1: is it, Martin.
29:28
Speaker 3: No, A lot of people would do that, and you
29:30
Speaker 3: know a lot of people would be advised to do
29:32
Speaker 3: that when they're going into business by their lawyers and accountants.
29:36
Speaker 1: But Sue's asking, how do we go about unwinding it?
29:38
Speaker 1: But I think we'll leave legal advice to other people. Yeah, okay,
29:42
Speaker 1: let's take some calls.
29:43
Speaker 5: Ross, Hello, Yeah, it mean that just ranked It mean
29:49
Speaker 5: that you said before that.
29:51
Speaker 1: We're a bad connection. Oh yeah, you know we had
29:56
Speaker 1: a bad connection. You're talking about the one we were
29:57
Speaker 1: talking about.
29:58
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. They said that he made God
30:02
Speaker 5: a deposit from his house from an American cheer market.
30:06
Speaker 5: That be an awful lot of money because you know,
30:11
Speaker 5: the shear market, the currency at the moment's only sixty
30:15
Speaker 5: one dollars. Sixty one dollars through one hundred New Zealand
30:17
Speaker 5: you got in So any reason I won't put a
30:22
Speaker 5: lot of money into Echel because yeah, it is quite
30:25
Speaker 5: a big rest posed to something that's but lower. You
30:30
Speaker 5: can get more for a better price, you know.
30:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, But Ross that there, I mean that that person
30:37
Speaker 3: was just lucky that person speculated that person wasn't. It
30:41
Speaker 3: was an investing. It was just a very short term
30:43
Speaker 3: play and he managed to get the timing right. Forget
30:47
Speaker 3: about whatever about the exchange rate, whatever about anything else.
30:51
Speaker 3: There was that fear better playing old luck.
30:54
Speaker 1: And they actually, you know what, she's given me permission
30:56
Speaker 1: to say this, that it was my producer, Tira. That wasn't.
31:00
Speaker 1: It wasn't anyone from overseas ross. It was Tyra. Sheve
31:02
Speaker 1: invested in Tesla, thought she liked the idea and boomfa.
31:05
Speaker 1: She's brought her first house. But she would acknowledge it
31:09
Speaker 1: was like I was looking at it. I said, can
31:11
Speaker 1: I out you now? Can I assert to you Tyrn? She goes, yeah,
31:13
Speaker 1: all right, and she just said it was She said,
31:16
Speaker 1: I was seventeen. Look at this. I was seventeen. It
31:19
Speaker 1: was pure luck and I had no idea what I
31:21
Speaker 1: was doing. And you know what, good on you.
31:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, but kids don't try this at home. I would
31:30
Speaker 3: not be suggesting that somebody puts, you know, all the
31:34
Speaker 3: money that they've got for the house to pose on
31:37
Speaker 3: some tech stock or any other stock.
31:40
Speaker 1: No, I guess at least if you do it when
31:42
Speaker 1: you're seventeen, you're going to recover. But anyway, so I
31:47
Speaker 1: hope that was a nod of the head I could
31:48
Speaker 1: out you, Tyra, because now we've done it on nationwide radio.
31:51
Speaker 1: I think there's a slight sense of like, I know
31:53
Speaker 1: I was lucky, but I feel quite smug and good
31:57
Speaker 1: on you. Anyway, Hey, sorry, let's get onto the tech thing.
32:02
Speaker 1: What's so the managed funds thing? I guess you know
32:06
Speaker 1: when you mentioned the way to get into the tech
32:08
Speaker 1: industry and tech investments is through the managed funds because
32:11
Speaker 1: they are spending all their life and their time on it.
32:15
Speaker 1: The only thing that some people will have this sort
32:18
Speaker 1: of thing. As soon as you have a managed fund,
32:20
Speaker 1: it always feels like the returns you get are always
32:23
Speaker 1: a bit muted. But is that the case when an
32:26
Speaker 1: industry goes gangbusters?
32:29
Speaker 3: Yes, it will be because they are owning not only
32:33
Speaker 3: the one as, they're owning the losers. And you know,
32:35
Speaker 3: diversification comes with it takes the volatility out of it.
32:39
Speaker 3: And tech stops are volatile. You know, I ought to
32:44
Speaker 3: make that warning right, You know, they are very volatile.
32:47
Speaker 3: They're ups and downs. You ask before what the risks
32:49
Speaker 3: of this is? It isn't the tech industries will all
32:52
Speaker 3: just go away or stop doing whatever it is that doing.
32:56
Speaker 3: It's that the sheares will be volatile, and if you
32:59
Speaker 3: end up rattled out of the market in a big downturn,
33:03
Speaker 3: then you no longer have your money in that when
33:07
Speaker 3: the upturn comes.
33:09
Speaker 2: And and TI.
33:10
Speaker 3: The other thing to say is that when we're talking
33:12
Speaker 3: about tech, it's not just AI, and it's not just
33:15
Speaker 3: robotics or automation, or it's gene therapies. It's blockchain, it's
33:22
Speaker 3: battery store, and it's clean tech. There's a whole bunch
33:25
Speaker 3: of different of different technologies that you can invest in.
33:31
Speaker 1: So you can choose. You can choose, like, if you
33:33
Speaker 1: like the certain area of technology and an area of
33:36
Speaker 1: science which you think is really rocking and rolling, you
33:38
Speaker 1: can look for a fund that specializes in that part
33:41
Speaker 1: of that industry, can.
33:42
Speaker 2: You, Yes, you can.
33:44
Speaker 3: So you can buy a managed fund, for example, that
33:48
Speaker 3: invests only in medical devices. And as somebody who's had
33:51
Speaker 3: two operations in the last week, while medical devices is
33:54
Speaker 3: something close to my heart, but yeah, literally, but you know,
33:59
Speaker 3: there are you know, lots and lots of medical devices
34:04
Speaker 3: that are being invented, some come to market and they
34:07
Speaker 3: don't they don't work properly, or they don't sell properly.
34:10
Speaker 3: Others will be incredibly successful, and if somebody owns the
34:14
Speaker 3: patent for that, they make a large amount of money.
34:17
Speaker 1: Do most large I mean the most credible investment fund
34:21
Speaker 1: managers will they have that ability to Will they have
34:25
Speaker 1: a fairly broad portfolio where you can go, Look, I'm
34:28
Speaker 1: interested in tech, but I really am interested in medical devices,
34:32
Speaker 1: and that they should have something for you.
34:35
Speaker 3: Yes, you know there well, a lot of fund managers
34:37
Speaker 3: or a lot of financial advisory houses will have, you know,
34:42
Speaker 3: the ability to point those out. The other thing to
34:44
Speaker 3: say is that most people who are listening to this
34:49
Speaker 3: will have keevy save accounts and keep we save. You know,
34:52
Speaker 3: most KEYV saver providers now will have exposures to technology,
34:58
Speaker 3: possibly quite big ones, some more, some more than others.
35:02
Speaker 3: I personally, well, with my own portfolio, it's reasonably heavily
35:07
Speaker 3: weighted towards technology.
35:09
Speaker 1: Yeah. Is there a part of you He mentioned medical
35:11
Speaker 1: devices just as a throwaway, but is there just getting
35:14
Speaker 1: to know Martin Hawes a little bit more, is there
35:16
Speaker 1: a part of Martin Hawes that has spent some of
35:19
Speaker 1: that money you set aside for medical procedures, and you're thinking,
35:21
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm going to go get some of
35:23
Speaker 1: that money back. So I'm going to tell my I'm
35:25
Speaker 1: going to go for looking for a fund that specializes
35:27
Speaker 1: medical devices because I want some money out of you guys.
35:31
Speaker 3: No, no, I thought would be yes, no, But I
35:37
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. I don't manage my own money now,
35:40
Speaker 3: somebody else manages for me. And there was a fund
35:44
Speaker 3: in there which was a medical device's fund.
35:48
Speaker 2: I don't think there was, okay.
35:49
Speaker 1: I just thought there was a slightly revenge investment sort
35:52
Speaker 1: of thing, like, well, I've had to spend thousands on
35:54
Speaker 1: this operational'm minute go get some of it back. Hey, Martin,
35:56
Speaker 1: just hold there because we'll be back in a moment.
35:58
Speaker 1: Because the one final question I want to ask Martin
36:01
Speaker 1: is about how do you find that investment fund manager?
36:04
Speaker 1: Because everything involves research, doesn't it, or does some of
36:07
Speaker 1: it involve just a little bit of blind luck when
36:08
Speaker 1: you buy Tesla shares at the age of eighteen and
36:10
Speaker 1: buy a house as a result. It's ten to six. Yes,
36:15
Speaker 1: welcome back to smart Money. When my guests is Martin
36:17
Speaker 1: Hahawes actually just had a clarification from my young producer
36:19
Speaker 1: Tyra about because some think she's worried. People think that
36:21
Speaker 1: she thinks she had a lot of money and shoved
36:23
Speaker 1: it into Tesla. She literally had a job at McDonald's
36:26
Speaker 1: and every spare sense she actually shoved into Tesla and
36:30
Speaker 1: it just happened to work out quite well for her.
36:32
Speaker 1: She said, her story is about just dumb luck. But
36:35
Speaker 1: I tell you what, if it's good on you for
36:38
Speaker 1: at least being in the game. Hey, Martin, So if
36:43
Speaker 1: you're looking for a fund manager and someone is listening
36:45
Speaker 1: and thinking, you know what, Actually I didn't realize you
36:46
Speaker 1: can invest in specific injury in industry, so specifically any
36:52
Speaker 1: Obviously you can't recommend. You're not going to recommend any
36:54
Speaker 1: particular fund managers. But how would people do their research
36:57
Speaker 1: on that aspect?
36:59
Speaker 3: I think one of the key key things there were
37:03
Speaker 3: two things to think about. One is you might be
37:05
Speaker 3: looking for fund management. You might also be looking for
37:07
Speaker 3: a financial advisor, because financial advisors, you know, run people's money,
37:11
Speaker 3: you know, and they invested for them. A fund manager,
37:16
Speaker 3: I would be tending to look for somebody who's been
37:18
Speaker 3: around and had good performance for a fairly long period
37:21
Speaker 3: of time.
37:22
Speaker 1: Yea, so not just sort of like twelve months. Look
37:25
Speaker 1: at me, I'm the miracle kid.
37:27
Speaker 3: No, there's a very good story from a woman called
37:31
Speaker 3: Kathy Wood our investments. She's still investing in technology out
37:37
Speaker 3: of the US. But in her first year, which was
37:39
Speaker 3: about five five years ago, maybe seven, she produced one
37:44
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty percent and just billions of dollars flooded
37:47
Speaker 3: than to that fund.
37:48
Speaker 1: Wow.
37:49
Speaker 3: She's never performed any good ever since.
37:52
Speaker 1: So don't go for the one hit wonders. No, exactly excellent. Hey, Martin,
37:59
Speaker 1: thanks so much for your time and stuff, and now
38:01
Speaker 1: that time's flown by. Yeah. Then my only disappointment was
38:05
Speaker 1: I really wanted you to say that you bought in
38:06
Speaker 1: medical investment funds as a revenge for your procedures. But hey,
38:10
Speaker 1: so when's the book out?
38:13
Speaker 2: Probably March. I think it is excellent.
38:16
Speaker 1: Okay, well, good luck we're finding that title pushing the
38:19
Speaker 1: retirement button. That's my suggestion. Anyway, Thanks Martin, good to
38:23
Speaker 1: see you, mate, and thanks you Jim. There we go. Hey,
38:25
Speaker 1: that wraps up the show. Thank you so much for
38:27
Speaker 1: your companies, and thank you very much to my producer,
38:30
Speaker 1: Tyra Roberts for looking after me so well, and actually
38:33
Speaker 1: sharing her little story there about a bit of luck
38:35
Speaker 1: on the old Tesla. She is good on your tyra
38:38
Speaker 1: job at McDonald's, put everything in at the age of
38:41
Speaker 1: eighteen and to Tesla got her house deposit. By the way,
38:46
Speaker 1: that's not the moral of the story. The moral of
38:47
Speaker 1: the story is diversification and fund managers, not just luck,
38:51
Speaker 1: but enjoyed hearing that story. Hey, Sunday at six is next,
38:55
Speaker 1: so stick around for Petra and Frank and we'll be
38:58
Speaker 1: back same time next weekend. And as you know, you
39:00
Speaker 1: can check out the podcast. There's some great material on there.
39:02
Speaker 1: Look for the Weekend Collective on iHeartRadio. Have a fabulous
39:05
Speaker 1: evening or catch again soon.