Latest / The Specific Jawns / Phillies Avoid Epic Collapse, Are in 2026 Postseason
Transcript
- speaker-0: Welcome back to the specific Johns podcast where we knew this was gonna happen all along. We've been saying for weeks there's nothing to worry about. Phillips are just playing possum, they're waiting until the last day, it'll be more exciting that way. Don't go back and check the archives, just take my word for it. I'm Pat Barker, I'm your host today. These are my good friends and ⁓ fellow Phillies fans here to revel in the victory of ⁓ an improbable, frankly, ⁓ playoff run that lasted for about three hours. And lands them in the wildcard round. That's Carl Bakuti, that's Mike Sambuco. Gentlemen, how are we feeling? speaker-1: Pat, I'll take it. I'm all in. I I mean what do we do this for? It's it's this week. This is what we gear up for all year. We're baseball fans, we're Phillies fans, it doesn't matter how we got there. Everything resets, the potential is there to win a title. What else are you supposed to do other than say World Series or bust? speaker-2: You know, I visited the ⁓ Major League Baseball headquarters over the weekend and I I've tried to reverse the juju of the last couple of da games of the Brewers series and it didn't really work Friday and Saturday, but hey, we got here across the finish line on Sunday. speaker-0: And what a what a ridiculous journey it was. ⁓ here's how I know everybody's mad at the Phillies. The fan base was so sick of this team that Mike, you and I posted a podcast previewing the playoffs with the magic number at two. That was like five days ago. And the magic number coming into to you know, last night was still two. ⁓ They barely got this thing done and not one person messaged me to be like you jinxed it. Not one person blamed me or us. Every single person was like, No, you have nothing to do with this. This is on the players. ⁓ they're they're playing terribly. But boy, they they look like an entirely different team today. I mean to come out and I think a lot of ⁓ tension was probably eased last night with the Diamondbacks finally losing because it felt like they would never lose. ⁓ I think that took a little bit of pressure off today. And then Bryce and Stott, I think the the first inning RBI double, I think really was a collective sigh of relief for everybody in the dugout. I know it was for me because off the bat I was like, someone's gonna catch that because that's just how everything's been going. And then it got down. And Schwarber scored and they had a lead. And I can't remember the last time I I feel like they had a lead. ⁓ and I think everybody just collectively relaxed a little bit. And in a week of Don Mattingley frantically pressing every emergency button he could think of just to realize most of them are out of order. ⁓ Bryson's not in the cleanup spot. ⁓ and then we'll get to it in a little bit, but Jesus Lazardo in the eighth inning, ⁓ both of the emergency presses today worked like a charm. So, you know, about time Mattingly caught a break because it's been a tough week for him. ⁓ talk about the ⁓ the the stot double in the first and how that changed the entire complexion of the ⁓ the game. speaker-1: It it made me feel like ⁓ the juice of twenty two. ⁓ there were a lot of moments in twenty two when Bryson Stott had ⁓ had almost like a Bryce Harper esque ⁓ you know, over overly pull swing and just roped one to right field. And you know, it the the weather was a factor, ⁓ a couple balls today could have been caught in normal conditions. ⁓ But it just I I don't know, it really was deja vu for me. And that that could just be imposing your own narrative onto the moment, but you could see it in the way the rest of the players reacted, certainly the rest of the game. ⁓ but he barreled down the line, got the second, and you could feel that big sigh of relief. And then when we took a lead finally, yeah, it it it felt like we were finally playing with you know, the advantage that the numbers have said we've had for the past week. speaker-2: You know, you bring up the the past memories of twenty twenty two. It of honestly reminded me of Stott's double in game three of the twenty two NLDS off of Strider because you go ⁓ back to the regular season that that year and you have multiple starts where they just can't get anything done against Spencer Strider and he mows them down in the first two innings of that game three and Stott finally breaks through and that just opened the floodgates and you kinda saw that in later innings today as well. speaker-0: Yeah, no doubt. I mean they played like an entirely different team. There's no question that they've been playing tight and y they could say whatever they want. ⁓ you know, on Friday I Friday night after the game, I was horrified to see a column go up on ⁓ Phillies dot com where the headline was Bryce Harper ⁓ you know, r reasserts that Phillies control their own destiny. It's like, yeah, that's the problem. I don't want this team controlling their own destiny. We need help. Somebody please help us. And then fortunately the Padres helped, and I think that put because if it if it had come into today where it's like you no longer even theoretically can win and you're in, ⁓ you gotta count on someone else. I think they would have been even more dejected. I'll tell you one other thing that helped, and this sounds counterintuitive, but I think the fact that the weather was so terrible and the fans were so adamantly against this team. And they played the most important game of their season in front of a half full house of only because to go to the game today you either had to be a complete masochist or a d one of those overwhelmingly positive lunatics. And I think they were better off playing in front of twenty thousand positive lunatics versus forty thousand guys who are all juiced up and ready to go, but the moment something goes wrong, they're gonna start booing, which happened on Saturday. And I will never be one to tell fans they shouldn't boo. They should have booed on Saturday. If anything, they should've booed more. But also it doesn't help. I think it helped the players today to not have to like deal with that. speaker-1: There there was a lot about this game that was, you know, almost a a go for broke there what do we have to lose situation. Right down to the fact that Bryson Stott was hitting in cleanup. I mean, the the whole thing was set up like yesterday how could it possibly get worse than last night's game? I think I think it they really flushed it out. You d there's only one direction to go at that point. I think the fans went in with that attitude. Expecting nothing. You know, they're gonna root for Zach Wheeler, but they're not gonna expect the lineup to come up with anything. ⁓ and the fact that they did early with Stott in a a spot in the lineup that I I don't know if he's been in all year. ⁓ you know, giving us that early lead, it it was the everyone kinda embodied that idea of what what the hell do we have to lose? Let's let's just do this, it's chaotic anyway, nothing's going to make sense. And I'll extrapolate that into this next series because Nothing does make sense for the Phillies right now. Their starters are not lined up. I know we're going to talk about that later. you know, they they lost their best ⁓ their best hitter in terms of plate approach, the guy who seemed to make a difference that even got us in a position to make the playoffs this year in Luisa Rice. ⁓ they're they're they're backing into the playoffs in in in every way except for the fact that they won today. ⁓ it's a good place to be as a as a Philadelphian, I would say. And our sports teams tend to embody who we are at their best. ⁓ it was the same situation in twenty-two, the pressure was suddenly on every year after that, and things felt different. The big moments didn't feel like anything can happen. It was, ⁓ we know what's going to happen because the predictable thing is just it it it's imminent. ⁓ so I just love the shakeup. I kind of we might look back at last night's game as you know what, thank God that happened. And I know that's a very optimistic way to look at things, but again, what else are you supposed to do when it it's game one again and we're in the postseason? speaker-2: And and it's truly a new season. I mean, they have just the same opportunity that every other team playing in the wildcard round does to advance to the next round to the NLDS, ⁓ where they'd face the Dodgers and then who knows what happens. ⁓ am I excited to face the Braves? Do I think that's a good matchup for them given the pitching? N not really, but I felt similarly in Twenty two and twenty three going into those NLDSs. I I I felt the Braves were the better team and I feel like that's the same this year, but in a small series anything can happen and that's what gets you excited as a baseball fan. speaker-0: Yeah, and there's also a parallel to the last great run. I mean, in two thousand eight nobody expected ⁓ to win a World Series, and they did, and then the three years after that were all sky high expectations, followed by varying degrees of failure. So, ⁓ yeah, same thing this time. Twenty two they were playing with house money. And now it kinda yeah, it feels like they are again. I I I think one thing that is certain is Saturday night's game was rock bottom of some sort. At the time I thought it was the rock bottom that would lead to because, you know, I I kind of assumed that they weren't going to get in based on last night. And it would be the rock bottom that would lead to some major changes within the organization. It might just be the rock bottom for the twenty twenty six teams specifically, where they internally look at it and go, Okay, now there's nowhere to go but up. Boy, I mean that would be a a really pleasant surprise to see them come out. because they should be playing pressure free now. If they come out and they manage, let's just say theoretically, and I don't want to get, you know, too we still have to talk about tonight, but if they come out and they get a couple runs off of Chris Sale somehow and take a lead, all the pressure shifts to the Braves. All of the pressure shifts to the Braves and they start and their fans start thinking about twenty two and twenty three when they were favored and they couldn't get the job done. And boy, it would be so nice after these last couple weeks to have the pressure be on the other guy for once. ⁓ so I'm definitely looking forward to that. The the pitching is all messed up, but one thing that I I I do wanna say, for all of Mattingley's lever pulling and trying to figure out what would work and what wouldn't, and that included throwing Aaron Nola on two days rest yesterday, which turned out to be disastrous. But it meant we didn't throw Zach Wheeler on short rest yesterday. We saved him for today, and that definitely proved to be the correct move. Whether or not Nola was, I mean, you know, I certainly it would seem that that was not, but it led to the Wheeler one today that was correct because I can't think of a better big game pitcher in Philly's history than this guy. Just another notch on a resume, a Phillies Wall of Fame resume for sure, ⁓ if not eventually a Hall of Fame resume. Talk to me about Zach Wheeler and what he was able to do today and what he means to you personally. speaker-1: Been saying this f since we started recording this type of podcast. I mean, he he is a certified dog. He is my favorite Philly pitcher ⁓ of my lifetime, to be honest with you. And that that's up against some big, big names that I also really loved. But ⁓ I can't think of a guy ⁓ that I trust more in any moment, ⁓ in any inning, whether you're bringing him in in the first inning or even in a later inning. I I just I would trust him to bring it at any moment. ⁓ you add the whole storyline. I felt this way about him before he got hurt last year and had the the the the health scare ⁓ that that you don't want to see any professional athlete have. That that could have been a career ender. ⁓ he battled back, he kept his head down, he's he's a boring interview, but he's the type of boring interview I love because I know he's just he's just a stone cold competitor underneath. And he's not there to play any other game. and he just showed that today. He showed it in his interview while everyone's popping champagne and Garrett Stubbs is dancing around in overalls. He's answering straight up questions about his approach and and how he's gonna get ready for his next challenge. ⁓ can't say enough about him, a true competitor, just a baseball player. speaker-2: I I second that wholeheartedly and I I just you go into the situation that they did today where they needed to win the game and you had no doubt in my mind at least, and I feel like you guys would agree that he was going to shove. And he did. And the only question coming in today was was the offense gonna show up? Thankfully they did. But ⁓ you knew he was gonna show throw five, six, seven innings, whatever it would be to get the job done, and he did. It just makes you even more frustrated that they couldn't wrap it up so that he could be saved for game one of the NLDS. ⁓ I do want to give Matting Lee and the potentially the front office some some props on moving the rotation around for Friday too, because Sanchez technically moved up in the order, pitched on regular rest, but didn't get the extra day like he would have lined up to ⁓ like the bullpen game would could have been Friday. He could have pitched Saturday if they they kept the order the same, but that allows him to pitch game two, which ⁓ I do want to give them the props for that. It also kind of made the NOLA start on Saturday possible, which is probably another reason why they did it, but obviously that didn't turn out ⁓ the way they drew it up. But ⁓ just going back to Wheeler, I mean I mean you can't say enough good things about the guy and and he is just one of the best free agent signings of all time from Philadelphia Phillies history and ⁓ One of the best pictures that I've ever seen live. speaker-1: And I j I just wanna say I I assure you it is under his skin that he can't go up against Chris Sale in game one. I I th I think that's gonna that's gonna grind his gears all postseason and I can only hope that he will take out that fury on whatever game he does get to start because ⁓ I just think he's that kind of guy. speaker-0: Well, I I hope he'll settle for starting game three against Lake Snell. ⁓ getting a little bit ahead of myself, but after that game, ⁓ can you blame me? ⁓ i th the thing about Wheeler is just the way his season ended last year, that big question mark. What what is his career gonna look is he gonna be able to return from this? And he then even this year, all the controversy surrounding like the all star game and then ⁓ he really hit that rough patch in August where ⁓ I I don't know about you guys, but I was panicking. I mean anytime you speaker-2: After that Seattle start, I think we all were. speaker-0: Yeah. And you know, he's such a a work horse and he he knows his own body so well that like the idea that a guy who is that far along in his career could just run into like mechanical issues and be kinda lost at sea almost seems like I I'm s I'm always skeptical. I'm like, No, there's something wrong. There's no way he just has to like change his arm slot by, you know, three percent or whatever. And then it turns out that's what it was. And for him to have his season end the way it did this last year and then have the regular season end this way this year ⁓ was absolutely huge. And I'm excited that he's gonna get a chance to pitch again in the playoffs. and I know technically, you know, if he's not lined till game three, there's no guarantee on that. I am choosing to be ⁓ relentlessly optimistic ⁓ for this podcast. Let's while we're while we're being optimistic, let's talk about a few other guys who who came up big. Manning Lee flip flop Turner and Schwarzer. ⁓ now I I don't know about you guys, but I sort of like lose track of who hits first and who hits second when. Like it all just becomes one big like glob to me. ⁓ and I was kind of surprised to I didn't recall that Turner was leading off before a rise got there. ⁓ That's that's what they said on the broadcast and then they switched them, put Schwarber in because they didn't want three straight lefties. ⁓ both of those guys responded today. ⁓ multi hit games for both of ⁓ Schwarber hit the ball really hard. That guy hits more cool looking foul balls than anybody I've ever seen, but he also had a couple hits that were actually in play. Couple hits for both of ⁓ Trey even yesterday, the ball that he hit off the back of the raised pitcher, he hit that about a hundred and five. ⁓ He is putting way better swings on on baseballs right now, and so is Schwarber. if a rise is ready for the first round of the playoffs, I don't care. I don't switch anything. They hit three straight lefties today. It was fine. Turner seems comfortable in that leadoff spot. I say leave him there, and I I give Mattingley credit for pulling that lever because it really worked out today. speaker-2: Yeah, I I still ⁓ have a a tough time believing in Trey Turner right now, but I will say batting leadoff this season, his OPS is seven twenty six, and when he was batting second, it was under six hundred. So maybe it is just a comfort thing, maybe it is the protection of Schwarber behind him. ⁓ but that really doesn't make sense if you think about who was behind him if when he was batting second. I mean, in Harper, but like y I I I I will believe it when I see it and I will get excited about Trey Turner when I see it because I I am not ready to buy in on the Trey Turner hype plane just yet. speaker-1: Yeah, I I'm not either. I'm not sure you know, there should be reasons why he bats differently in leadoff than in the two hole. It should have something to do with you know whether or not he's got a guy on base in front of him or if he's just trying to set the table for the guy behind him. I just haven't seen him perform consistently with a plate approach at all in his Phillies tenure to to trust that that's what's going on here. ⁓ I want to actually bring up an external factor for probably a couple of the guys you want to talk about here, Pat. ⁓ I honestly think the weather shoehorned them into a plate approach that was different. I I actually believe that. ⁓ I think that in the same way that we saw whatever it was inspire them when after the Arise deal, we saw in August they had a plate approach. It was it was impressive. ⁓ the the ⁓ the broadcast last night, I think it was Fox, had a really cool graphic showing each part of the outfield. I think five different data points, ⁓ showing how many feet the wind was going to shave off of a of a fly ball in that direction. And I think guys feel that at the plate. There's no way you don't know that there's, you know, a a a a powerful force in front of you no matter how hard you hit the ball. And I saw them not swing as much today. Yesterday I did. But I saw them not swing as much for the fences. I actually watched them put barrels through the zone and it looked different. It really did. The results were different too. But you know, you try to look at the even their swings and misses, even the balls they're fouling off, ⁓ it allowed them to work counts. It just it felt like they were level swings. It felt like they were interested in in what the count was, frankly, which is something they don't look like they even know half the time. ⁓ so I actually think the weather force them into that approach. ⁓ I wish Mattingley or somebody could find a way to trick them into thinking it's bad weather ⁓ in whatever game they play in the postseason. I I I really do. speaker-0: Yeah. Normally you would rely on a ⁓ like a hidden coach to change the approach. Yeah, so we just gotta we gotta hope for Nor'easters. That is ⁓ that is our ticket to success. That's a great point, man. You know, I didn't even 'cause I mean looking down the lineup, you know, Bohm walked twice. He was having ⁓ much better at best. ⁓ Harper had, you know, of course the late home run. JT Real Muto finally broke that skid that I thought might never end. And I think that helped him a lot. speaker-1: Yeah, we don't really have one of those. speaker-0: And then Edmundo Sosa had some really good passes at the ball as well. So yeah, up and down the lineup, the approach was definitely better. And if the weather had something to do with it, ⁓ yeah, then ⁓ let's pray for more of of that. ⁓ regarding Sosa, and this is looking ahead a little bit, but obviously a rise was out for the last three days. They're trying to figure out what is the move with a rise out. Do you leave everybody in their new positions, the new defensive alignment, Boehm at first, Harper and Wright, you know, et cetera, et cetera, and just put Sosa out there. Or do you kind of shift Harper back to the infield, move everybody else around, and then put either Bry Brian De La Cruz, which they did last night, or Derek Hill in the starting lineup in the outfield. ⁓ if a rise is not a hundred percent going into the wildcard series, and I can't imagine he would be, 'cause that was nasty looking. Where do you guys land with this? Do you wanna see more of of Sosa? Does it depend on the opposing pitcher? What what do you guys think about? speaker-2: Think it's highly dependent on the the starting pitcher of the of the opponent. I think ⁓ Sosa is one of the more extreme ⁓ platoon splits where he it crushes lefties and I would put him in there in a heartbeat against a left handed starter. So I expect to see him starting in game one on Tuesday. ⁓ but he has a five ⁓ nine OPS against righties. And I just don't I don't feel like that's a good plan ⁓ when you have the option option of a Marsh, Harper and ⁓ Crawford outfield or a Harper at first base with De La Cruz and Wright. I'd prefer that ⁓ than having a Sosa every day. speaker-1: I don't I don't feel as ⁓ as worried about defense as I have in past runs, which is interesting. ⁓ I'm not sure we've gotten any better on paper. ⁓ I I don't mind Harper in right field, but I I wouldn't be mad about having him move back to first, Boam over the third, and to have a really ⁓ a a an actually plus outfield alignment ⁓ with a Derrick Hill Or DeLacruz starting a with a platoon situation out there. Sosa is probably the weakest of of the places you can put him in the field, you're not going to put him at shortstop, obviously, in the postseason. I I I would rather, but they won't. ⁓ I don't think Sosa gives you anything positive defensively at any of those particular positions versus ⁓ the other options that we have. ⁓ and in the playoffs, we just know how it goes. ⁓ You know, ⁓ w we were a a couple Nick Castellanos ⁓ sliding catches from not making that World Series in twenty two. I mean that that's how slim the margins can be. ⁓ so I I I actually would would look at defense a little bit more than I would look at offense when it comes to something like whether we're gonna play Sosa or not, ⁓ or at least start him. speaker-0: funny thing is, and I thought I was hallucinating when they said this on the broadcast, but they said that Mattingley said that he chose this particular lineup because he wanted the strongest defense behind Wheeler. And he felt like Sosa in there and Harper and Wright constituted the strongest defensive alignment, which I don't necessarily agree with. I mean I will say this. I saw Bohm shift back to third base yesterday and make a brutal throwing error. At one point, so maybe there is a psychological thing to them them feeling more comfortable. Maybe that's why 'cause like you said, I don't know that we've gotten any better on paper defensively. We we haven't. There's no reason I and I said this at the time. Adding Luisa Rise, who has historically been a minus defender, and moving everybody else, starting with Bryson Stott, a plus plus defender, out of his spot, there's no way it should have worked, but I do feel kinda more comfortable with it. ⁓ yeah, I I definitely think against lefties you gotta just run Sosa out there. ⁓ he's got maybe more pop than this is gonna sound crazy, but maybe anybody on the team outside of Harper and Schwarber. ⁓ you know, he has a lot of big clutch home runs this year. So ⁓ yeah, I think he's gonna be in there probably against against sale, ⁓ just as you predicted, Mike. ⁓ As far as who the Phillies will throw for that game, I don't know, but I'll tell you this. I was very not only encouraged but relieved to see Jesus Lazardo throw a four pitch inning. At that point, very clearly the Rays were like, I we've had enough of this. We're we're in the playoffs. Just let's nobody get hurt. Go up there swinging, whatever. But Lazardo looked good. His fastball was ninety six, which is a tick down, but He can work with that, certainly. And, you know, we were in the group text talking about he was slipping and sliding in the the warm ups. I was you know, I'm like, he's gonna blow a hamstring or something. He got out of it unscathed physically and on the scoreboard. ⁓ I have more confidence now that he is a legitimate option in the Braves series. For what, I don't know exactly, but i it was encouraging either way. What did you guys see out of Lozardo today? speaker-1: Having gotten through it, great move by Mattingley. Thank God the whole thing panned out the way that it did. I I I believe it was Hammels who said on the broadcast, like, I'm not sure about these raised swings that they're putting on his pitches that, you know, got them out in four innings in four pitches. But ⁓ no, just mentally, the fact that he got out there in a game that mattered, threw pitches, had his mechanics right. I mean, the balls that he threw were were good pitches. It's not like they were swinging it nonsense. ⁓ yeah, ⁓ it's just the the trial run you have to get through. I even think the Nola start yesterday, you know, that could pay dividends at some point in this postseason, just showing that he remembers what it's like to to pitch on short rest. Getting these guys some re ⁓ some reps in a in a postseason that if we do go deep at all is going to be chaotic and unconventional because of the way we're starting this whole thing. ⁓ everything's out of whack with the starting rotation. We've got a big time starter down with an injury, ⁓ who might come back, might be able to pinch hit. ⁓ Madeline even said today he could have pinched hit, which is bizarre to me. ⁓ but yeah, I I I just think getting all these guys the sense of we're all in, we're all gonna be available for whatever we're called up to do. ⁓ there there's something psychological there that I think is actually a a a great thing ⁓ going into this postseason. speaker-2: season. Yeah, I didn't want to see Jesus Lazardo's first appearance off the IL in the postseason. I'm glad they got him a out there today. ⁓ even I'll as as short of an an outing it wasn't in ⁓ it it it was good to see him mow through a raised lineup that clearly didn't want to be there and wanted to go home. ⁓ but at the same time I it I think I'm more worried about how he feels tomorrow. And I I just wanna make sure that there's no negative consequences of him pitching ⁓ a a short one inning, but just how does the arm feel after t after today and if ⁓ if there's any potential for concern out of that. I hope not. Don't think there will be, or else he wouldn't have been out there. But ⁓ it's just in the back of your mind until you're confirmed, ⁓ it's there. speaker-1: Yeah, I'm just gonna trust that they adequately ramped him up. I mean, we we got reports every day about ⁓ he had a catch today. He ⁓ you know, he started to throw ⁓ long toss or off the mound, whatever. I mean, they definitely had more time than just putting him out there today to to assess whether his arm is right. And I I it seems like they trust it. I think if the the days hadn't lined up the way that they did, you know, and and he had been able to come off the IL yesterday they might have started them last night. So you know, I'm just gonna trust the Phillies training staff I think deserves a lot of credit during this entire run. We've we talked about this at the beginning of this year, how remarkably low rate of injuries they've had for for having such an aging core. ⁓ and I think this is another testament to them. speaker-0: Yeah, if our international scouting department was half as good as our training department, we ⁓ we would probably be in a much better position. But neither here nor there. ⁓ bottom line is he he got through it. And y you're right, Mike, even though it was only four pitches, it's never just four pitches. I mean he warmed up in the bullpen. You gotta figure there's fifteen to twenty there, and then you come in you throw another eight before the thing. speaker-2: There's adrenaline of coming into a big spot and then the eighth inning of a game that you need to win. Absolutely. speaker-0: Yeah. So I I mean, ⁓ conservatively I would say he probably threw thirty legitimate pitches today. So I will be curious to see how he responds to it. He said afterwards that he feels great, he's good to go tomorrow, but obviously waking up in the morning, ⁓ you know, it's gonna feel a little bit different. I wanna move on to the N L D S but before ⁓ wild card round, excuse me, but before I do, if I missed anything in this game, because I know ⁓ You guys took a lot away from this game. I want to make sure that we touch on everything before we move on. ⁓ is there anything I missed? speaker-2: Just a quick capper, I mean the the last week, as low as it got, it just highlighted how inconsistent this team has been all year. And the fact that they took a full one hundred and sixty two games to clinch the sixth seed in the NL with the payroll that they have and with the names that they have on this roster is concerning. And it's it's Kind of astounding. had they not made the postseason, I don't know if that would have changed the minds of the of everybody at the top, whether that's Middleton on Dumbrowski, Dombrowski on coaching staff, on whoever players. You know, i I don't I don't wish that they had missed the playoffs, but it would have been a very interesting off season, especially one leading into a potential lockout. what changes might have been had they missed the playoffs versus even just making it and losing potentially in the first round. speaker-0: Yeah. I mean it's it is interesting. I think that I think if they lose to the Braves, I think the overall we will circle back to the place of negativity. And we will circle back to where we were, you know, a w a few days ago. ⁓ and I think that they will feel the same heat, maybe not quite as bad as if they had completed the collapse and not made it at all, but like I don't think people will be happy or satisfied at all. And I think the negativity will seep back in. The problem is logistically, and we're gonna have a lot of time to talk about this, especially if there's a lockout. This is a pretty tough roster to do a lot with. ⁓ because I was talking to another friend of mine a couple days ago when I was like, ⁓ there's nothing the Phillies can do. And he was like, Would you trade Wheeler? I was like, No. What are you talking about? So it's like Yeah, I want them to make major changes, but I I don't want them to get rid of any of the players I actually like, which really, you know, hamstrings them. ⁓ But I I do think that the attitude if they lose to the Braves, ⁓ will revert to what it was. If they make a deep run, that's what got Rob Thompson a a full time managerial game. He would have never had that. If they had made it to the wildcard round and lost in twenty twenty two, they would have hired whatever the equivalent of Alex Coral was then. They would have moved on for and you know, this might have looked entirely different. So yeah, ⁓ sliding door scenario. ⁓ but I I I guess we'll see what happens. But yeah, if ⁓ if they did lose today and missed the playoffs, I think heads would have rolled for sure. speaker-2: Especially with the rumored Dombrowski extension that was to be coming this offseason. What happens if he gets an extension after the countless number of season ticket holders have not renewed, after the fan base has clearly been frustrated with the the team essentially remaining the same for the last three years after not getting it done? And and then you're saying, you know what, good enough to get an extension. Dave Dombrowski. I I just am fascinated by that what if. speaker-1: I was gonna save this take for the end of the podcast, but I I think that there's not gonna be a better time than now. ⁓ I think if they if they exit early, you gotta blow it up. I think if they win the whole thing, you gotta blow it up. I think the worst thing that could happen in this postseason for for the future of this franchise is if, say, they get to the NLCS or the World Series and put together a good fight against whoever that is and They hit just enough to stay competitive. And the starting pitching does what it's supposed to do. And what happens is we're in a, you know, an elimination game, game six, game seven. ⁓ Duran comes in with one run lead, two run a save situation, and he blows it. The the worst thing that can happen for this fan base, for this franchise, for for anything involving the Phillies is that the predictable thing is not what does them in. It's that it's that something that will give a guy like Dombrowski some rope, some plausible deniability. That that hey I set this up and the fluke thing happened. And that's what did us in. We were we were gonna do it. ⁓ that's the worst case scenario for me because that gives the the the storyline, the excuse, the message to the fans of we're gonna run this back with this core or run this back in any way. ⁓ it gives it legs and it gives Middleton a reason not to go to the next luxury tax threshold, whatever that is, after the the ⁓ the CBA's agreed to. That's my biggest fear. And I'm I'm actually in speaking to that, I'm trying to reverse manifest it. I'm trying to speak it out of existence. 'Cause that that is the way that will torture us. That's the thing that we won't be able to let go ⁓ for years. ⁓ that's often the way it happens in baseball, but I I I've just had these weird premonitions that that's where we're gonna be. I don't wanna be in that in between spot. And if we do win it all, as I said, I still think we should blow it up. I think we should say, Hey, this era got us where we needed it to be. Let's close this chapter. And let's build for, you know, the next era. Let's not have a a decade and a half lull before we get back to being competitive. ⁓ that that I think I'd still have that take if we if we do run through this postseason and win it all, that there's still fundamental flaws to the way this is structured ⁓ that will need to be addressed. speaker-0: Boy, I'll tell you that is a conversation I would love to have with you ⁓ the day before the parade. I in all honesty, b that would be a fantastic problem to have is us arguing over whether or not they should pull a ninety seven Marlins and get rid of all their good players after winning the World Series. I welcome that debate. ⁓ but I I I I think that Mike hit the nail on the head in passing there when he said about the season ticket holders not renewing. ⁓ It's more than just the negativity of the fan base and ⁓ they're calling into WIP and yada yada yada. Like the number one goal of all the owners, and respect to Middleton, who I think is one of the few who really truly does care about winning. But these guys are buying these teams because they're assets and they want to make money. And fans can ultimately dictate to a degree what the team does by, you know, making a statement with their Wallace. And if fans are in droves canceling their season tickets, I Middleton is no fool. He's gonna listen. He's gonna feel the stagnancy and everything like that. ⁓ It's why, you know, we talked about this year, even when things were going well. It was like y you need everything to go perfectly this year for the fans to not completely revolt because you did what they didn't want, which is you brought back the same guys. And I think that ⁓ I think they will out of necessity have to make major changes just because there will be no other option. But we will ⁓ it's a fascinating take, by the way, about ⁓ Duran or somebody blowing it versus ⁓ the predictable outcome and how that would change things. ⁓ something tells me we're gonna have a lot of opportunities to talk about how this season ends, regardless of how it actually ends. Let's for now just look forward to this week. ⁓ they're in, they're heading to Atlanta tonight, they're gonna play the Braves. It looks as though they will send out Christopher Sanchez game two on regular rest. ⁓ I would assume Zach Wheeler will be penciled in for game three. Which leaves game one as a big question mark. They're playing with house money, they're going against Chris Sale. I suppose Aaron Nola would be a candidate since that was his throw day the other day when he he got blown up for the inning. ⁓ Andrew Painter ⁓ perhaps leading some sort of bullpen game. Bulk innings out of Painter and Luzardo with Tim Mesa starting. I don't know what the plan is. If you were Don Mattingley And you were prepping for game one, who were you giving the ball to? speaker-2: have an easy plan for game one and that's starting the game with Nola and effectively running a two pitch or two-pitcher game with Nola and Painter following up. But they both throw four or five innings and they go through the full nine with that. ⁓ now if you get to the ninth and you're up one yeah no problem p bringing in Duran there. But ⁓ I just I just think you need to have as few of our I don't want to go deep in the bullpen is where I'm trying to go with it. I don't think ⁓ I don't think the spot f ⁓ for Mesa, as you mentioned, is is is right for game one of a ⁓ the w of a wild card series, but I love the idea of piggying back piggybacking Painter off of a Nola strike. speaker-1: Mike, I love where your head is at. ⁓ I'm almost lockstep with you. Just some of the players are a little bit different. ⁓ in my mind, it's it is Luzardo starting game one. And we're gonna get we're gonna tell him we just we need five out of you. We need we need you to get through five. For better or worse. It's up against Chris Sale. This is not gonna be an easy game for us. It's not one we're likely to be ahead, certainly not through five. And You know, I'm gonna check in with Lozardo, see how he's feeling. I'm gonna try not to get his pitch count above seventy. ⁓ you know, I I I I don't know what their assessment of his health truly is. But ⁓ the guy I would piggyback is is is Andrew Painter if they are losing and Nola if they are winning. Because for the same reason that you have, you don't want to burn good bullpen pieces in those next two games where you have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup. And again, I'm I'm a firm believer you you whip your horses, you rely on the guys who got you there. And the starting pitchers like Sanchez and Wheeler are the ones who if they don't perform it, what are you gonna do? That that's that's who we know th those are the known quantities that we need to build around. ⁓ I don't wanna burn bullpen pieces if it's a a a losing situation. I wanna get Painter in there to maybe keep us in the game. Give him some postseason experience. You never know if that'll pay dividends later dividends later ⁓ in the run. but if they're trying to hold a lead, it's it's Nola, the guy I trust between him and Painter. ⁓ and he would be the guy who gets that split start. But the same concept. Yeah, I I want to save my pieces in game one. It it it it seems counterintuitive. You wanna try to win every game you can early, especially in a short series, but Chris Sale is Chris Sale, and we know what this matchup looks like against him. speaker-2: Fascinated to hear Barker's plan or retort. ⁓ I would love to follow up on Carp Carl's ⁓ plan after Pat goes. speaker-0: Well yeah, I'll I'll I'll I'll do mine and then we can all pick each other's apart because the one thing I realized in listening to you guys talk is there's no good answer. These are all just various degrees of bad. ⁓ speaker-2: Nothing is game one wheeler. That's for sure. No. speaker-0: ⁓ for sure. But listen, I I we started with Nola on two days rest and I'm like, it can't get worse than that. And then Carl's like, the guy coming off the injury on one day rest. Well we only need five innings out of him. I I didn't think he was gonna throw five innings over the course of the three games, like in a relief roll. To to expect him to come out and give you five as a starter, I think is ⁓ a little bit far fetched. I'll go the other way. I'll go with ⁓ what's behind door number three Andrew Painter, come on down. Take the ball. You've been throwing really well for the last couple months. If we start Nola, I don't trust Nola pitching to JT. It's very clear that he is more comfortable pitching to Garrett Stubbs. And it's very clear that the Phillies are not willing to honor that. They're not willing to take JT out of the starting lineup for Garrett Stubbs, even when JT is 0 for his last thirty. I didn't understand it on Saturday. I won't understand it when they do it in the postseason. But that's assuming that's what they're gonna do, I don't want Nola going out there on two days rest ⁓ and pitching to JT and trying to not fall behind early. ⁓ I also am a little bit worried about Luzardo and I would prefer to bring him back a little bit a little bit more delicately, a little bit slower. I I would love to try to get six to eight outs out of him versus fifteen. And Painter has been good for a while. I don't I don't like this. I don't like sitting here and being like, okay, playoff start, hand the ball to Andrew Payner. This is not the scenario any of us wanted to be in. But of those three options, I do think he's the best ⁓ in this particular circumstance. And then you keep Lazardo as an option, ⁓ you know, to try to bridge some sort of gap, maybe Nola in there as well. although we've never seen him pitch in relief, which would, you know, ⁓ I guess give more credence to him starting. But I'm I'm gonna go with Painter. ⁓ Mike, whi wh what do you think about speaker-2: No, y your your your painter just flat out starting game one is is, you know, just as good of a plan as any of the others, ⁓ quite honestly. ⁓ what I what I did wanna comment on Carl's plan is I I was under the impression that I don't think we're gonna see five innings in a game from Lozardo in this series. He maybe in later in the postseason he gets to that point, but I don't think ⁓ he he's ramped up for that just yet. And I'd rather keep him available as our best lefty out of the pen late in the game when we need out against a Matt Olson. ⁓ so that that's kind of where I'm with ⁓ Lizardo at, and I think starting Nola at least gives the opportunity to start the game with Stubbs and then you can switch him out when you take Nola out and put JT in if you really want to go down that route. Keep Nola comfortable with the catcher that he's performed significantly better with. speaker-1: A couple other things I want to point out regarding the Luzardo situation and and ⁓ everything we're talking about here. One, I I wanna go from righty to lefty or lefty to righty in whatever combination we use. I want to force them to make lineup moves mid game, i if if that's how we execute. ⁓ you know, just for for the sake of thinning out their ranks, you know, if it is a close game, I want them to have fewer options rather than more. ⁓ Luzardo i in If we are to believe the reports about him, he really just took two weeks off. He's been ramping up for almost a week now. He he it's not like this is a ⁓ an extended IL stint with a with a defined injury. Now they might be ⁓ Downplaying things publicly. I'm not sure how much they're allowed to do that by league rules, but I'm taking what they have said and what they've done with him at face value. To me, they rested a starter who might have had a tired shoulder, a little bit of inflammation that subsided. He's back to throwing comfortably. He's ⁓ warming up the way that he normally would. It's the postseason, he was the best pitcher in baseball before that two week span. He's a starting pitcher right now in my mind. So that might be delusional, but I'm I'm looking at the facts that they've been willing to divulge and I I don't I don't feel like I he needs to be ramped up. I think he's a starting pitcher ⁓ in this rotation in the postseason. speaker-0: I mean the other thing that goes into it is not just the idea of can he or does he need to be ramped up or whatever, it is our bullpen is pretty bad. The bullpen is absolutely trash. And ⁓ Luzardo could be a major asset back there. ⁓ you know, if you start him in game one and treat him like a regular starter, I don't know that you get to use him in game two or three. certainly not as effectively as you could if you use him in one and three in a relief roll and he only throws an inning or two. none of the answers are great. I would love if we had let's say I trusted even theoretically one of the lefties in our bullpen. I would be fine with a scenario where, ⁓ we start you know, Brooks Rayleigh and he goes an inning, but y y you force again, ⁓ these are these are theoretical speaker-1: But speaker-2: Yeah, you could have picked any lefty. speaker-0: I mean the I ran through them in my head. I'm like, I don't I don't feel comfortable saying any of these names, Tanner Banks ⁓ Jose Alvarado. But like a thing where, all right, we go through the first couple innings, we force them to do a right-handed heavy lineup, we throw our lefty for the first, you know, four batters, and then we switch it to a righty, and then, you know, Painter somewhere comes in there, goes the third and the fourth, whatever, but we don't have that luxury, right? We gotta piece it together. and I think you make a list of the guys that you trust even a little bit and your goal is to get six outs out of each of them. And maybe more out of painter because he's the most well rested. That's why I would start him and just see what happens. And if he's kinda, you know, cruising, maybe you roll the dice a little bit. But yeah, I I I don't know. It's gonna be fascinating to see what they do. speaker-2: That's why I think the the best case for game one is giving Nola for like four innings, keeping him in that like seventy pitch count range. You don't want him to, you know, stretch too far. ⁓ because I I just I I think the deeper he goes into the game, I think the bigger risk you run of him blowing up. But I am I I'm I'm in an odd good feeling about Painter as like a a swing man of three, four innings out of that ⁓ out of that type of role. And and maybe it doesn't turn out to be, but I I just think he's he's got the the stuff to compete and he's had some great performances recently. speaker-0: Yeah. Yeah. I mean it's gonna be it's gonna be fascinating to see no matter what. I the best case the best solution to this problem is for the offense to put some runs on the board. That really changes the way you do everything. ⁓ if the Phillies had like four to four today, it would have been a whole different managed game. speaker-2: Yeah. Exactly. And and you know, we we talked about Sale all episode and you know, he's not the best postseason starter, and I fully expect that to change on Tuesday, ⁓ just against our offense. But you know, he's had seven starts, ten total appearances, and his ERA is over six. Is that like never for the break? ⁓ speaker-1: For the Braves, is that is am I Did he pitch in twenty twenty one for them? speaker-2: Well he wasn't he wasn't on their roster then. It's most season. speaker-1: I don't think he took speaker-2: Twenty four was his first year with the Braves. speaker-0: Yeah. I don't recall him pitching in the postseason in in twenty four. ⁓ but ⁓ were they even in the postseason in twenty four. That's twenty three I'm thinking of. ⁓ yeah, I mean historically, obviously he did record the final out of a World Series, so it's not all bad, but his numbers are are not that good. He is thirty seven years old, he's coming off throwing a lot of innings. All these things factor in. It's not impossible to think that we could beat Chris Sale. Carl, it was a month ago you and I were at a game where I w I saw the Phillies Hit six or seven balls in the next a hundred miles an hour off of Chris Sale. speaker-1: You talk about. Ale and Alec Alec Bohm had his number in that game. speaker-0: He did. He did. ⁓ and and really all you need is a couple guys. Today it was Bryson Stott who really like set the tone. If Bohm goes out there and does that and maybe Sosa adds a a couple of knocks, you know, any anything could happen. That being said, the the last thing I guess I want to get into, ⁓ before I turn it over to you guys in case we we missed anything. In the NLDS, how conf er the wild card, I keep saying that. How confident are you in the ability for Louisa Rise to play any sort of role? Would you bank on him and if not, definitively what what is who's the guy who's gonna step up in his absence? speaker-1: There's no way a rise is is available or effective in any capacity in this wildcard series. I I don't see it. I I'm a I'm a guy who's had so many ankle issues that, you know, I feel like I can just watch the way one it one twists and know how many weeks a guy's gonna be out. ⁓ he he ⁓ you know, I I would love to have him in a situation where we need just a a a a good at bat, ⁓ but I'm not gonna rely on him this week. Maybe next week if we get there. The guy we need to step up is whoever isn't starting among Sosa, Derek Hill, and De La Cruz. I mean, those are our juice guys. They they have ⁓ shown us something in the second half of this season and in many ways are the only reason we're here. ⁓ and I I I think Mike, you mentioned in the last cast how how you love Hill as a bench piece. You you you you like him just in that capacity, the chaos he can bring into a game that he's shown this season. ⁓ I think it's gonna be a a a margin guy like that. ⁓ I'll also add that, you know, I I wanna see one of them preferred over Brandon Marsh against a left hander. ⁓ I think I think Pat you might have mentioned that in the last pod as well, but I I wanna I wanna put my own stamp on that. ⁓ no, I I I don't need ⁓ a a horrendous lefty on lefty matchup. That has proven itself time and time again, except for three months at the beginning of the season. Give those guys a chance, especially against a guy like Chris. speaker-2: Yeah, I I I I play the platoon splits and I think you find your hero day to day and if you know, if say Derek Hill has a great game one, maybe you consider him starting game two and just play the hot hand. Like I it's it's at the point where this offense and the pieces that they have that are more interchangeable. It's the time of this of the year where you just play the hot hand and and you go after somebody who could just have a nice streak. ⁓ and you find like a Steve Pierce ⁓ in in Boston in twenty eighteen or you find Jorge Solaire or somebody like that for Atlanta in twenty one. It's it's just like y you're at the time of the season. Adules Garcia twenty twenty three, yeah. So ⁓ it again, I'll start by playing the platoon splits, but if somebody has a fantastic game one, I you bet they're playing game two. speaker-0: Yeah, and if you go with Platoon splits in game one, you know, you would have De La Cruz, Hill, and Sosa all in there. ⁓ Sosa in place of a rise and the other two in the outfield, and then maybe one of them gives you a spark plug. I do think that two out of those three will be in there. I think there's a chance he sticks with Crawford in center over Hill. I would not. I would put Hill out there. ⁓ but I would like to yeah, get those guys out there and see if any of them, you know, provides a jolt and and try to ride that hot hand. I think that's That's right. I did have one other thing I wanted to add, and I it would have fit better earlier in the podcast, but I just remembered it now. It's it's funny when when you were talking ⁓ about like what would have happened if they had lost this game and how that kind of sliding doors scenario would have played out. I heard an interview ⁓ with Bryce Harper on the pre-game today, ⁓ the the radio feed. And It was the first time I heard some cracks in the Bryce Harper facade of kinda like, you know, speaker-1: I they gave him speaker-0: Well, which one? There's so many. But to give you an example, the last question they asked him, and I'll work backwards, was do you have a message win, lose, or draw for the fans? I mean, that's a softball to Bryce Harper. He did not pay the fans one compliment. I and I felt like it was an honest answer. He was just kinda like, Look, all I care about is win this game today. I don't you know, whatever, whatever, and then we'll deal with all the other stuff whenever. But like he didn't even offer any platitudes. Earlier in the interview, another softball, they were like And I thought for sure I knew how he was going to answer. They said, At this point in the season, can you even take time to take stock of your season and your performance? Or is that something you'll worry about in the offseason? And I thought for sure he'd say, Yeah. I mean, that's the last thing on my mind right now. He was like, Yeah, I think it's been a good season. You know, I've had to do a lot for the team. I've had to move around. ⁓ I moved from, you know, first base to right field, then back to first base. This week now I'm back in the outfield again. I've reached base over two hundred and fifty times. I was like, what is this guy doing? Now nobody's gonna pick up on it because they won today or whatever. But I did want to put it out there, and this is a weird time in the podcast to do it, but what a bizarre interview from from Bryce. PR Bryce was nowhere to be found today. And I think if they have an early playoff exit, I think ⁓ I think he's gonna have a lot to say about it. So one other thing to to kinda watch out for. ⁓ Was there anything else that we didn't get to talk about that you guys wanted to before we ⁓ sign off? speaker-2: Yeah, well I I think we got lucky with the schedule. Two PM games all throughout this week is best case scenario for the a road team in Atlanta. I mean the daytime experience in Atlanta versus the nighttime experience at Truist is is pretty significantly ⁓ different. And I think even the Braves have struggled ha at day ⁓ in day games this year. ⁓ so I think that actually really helps us out. ⁓ you know, it's it's I'm just think about game two of the twenty-three NL DS and how hype that crowd was when they came back. And you know, compare that to I think it was game one of the twenty two DS where we we were the road team in game one and it was a day game. And you know, we stole that game from them. ⁓ came out with bunch of early hits and kind of silence the crowd and th they got back and and almost made it a game again in the ninth, but the type of experience exactly. That's the type of experience that I think we need to rely on. We need to silence the crowd early and it's easier to do that in a daytime experience. speaker-1: Nick made that. speaker-0: Yeah, especially when they're when they're at work. And Atlanta historically has had problems selling tickets in the postseason. I mean the the fans got famously spoiled by those, you know, the fourteen straight division titles. They were not turning up for playoff games. And it's a legitimate thing, ⁓ you know, to be like, Well, it's a wee day afternoon. Like I have work. I can't be there. I I would expect, yeah, not sold out cra there's a few cities that you can get past that. Philly is certainly one of them. But Atlanta I do think is gonna benefit us a a good deal. speaker-1: Yeah, that that crowd will be almost LA like, I think, in terms of arrival time. ⁓ you know, their their stadium complex, which is awesome. I wish we could emulate it ⁓ in South Philly, but ⁓ it's the equivalent of going out to King of Prussia for a game. Like you there's a a significant portion of the fan base that with a lot more traffic, that's right, which is saying something. ⁓ so yeah, I I I think I I hope that that's the vibe going in. I hope it's a little thin. speaker-2: With a lot more traffic. speaker-1: I hope we can get on sale early and off to the races. speaker-0: There it is. Well, regardless of what happens, we will do this again at the conclusion of that series to ⁓ to talk about either ⁓ the upcoming series in Los Angeles or the end of the season. I hope it's the former and not the latter, but there's going to be a lot to talk about either way. Thank you guys for ⁓ for making this work today, jumping on and getting it done right after the game. ⁓ until next time, that's Carl Bakudi. That's Mike Sambuco, I'm Pat Barker. We are the specific Johns. Red October is upon us. Let's go film. speaker-1: Eu faço. speaker-2: Your Phil's