Latest / Foul Territory / Regional TV money cuts & luxury tax penalties clogging the market? Jays raked cash, Tommy Phamgraphs?!

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Regional TV money cuts & luxury tax penalties clogging the market? Jays raked cash, Tommy Phamgraphs?! · Foul Territory

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: We're going to combine articles Ken Rosenthon, Will Samon talking
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: about the luxury tax impact on the slowness of the market,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Evan Dralik, and Katie Wu talking about the TV money
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: disappearing that is affecting more of the mid level teams.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: And then you look up and you're like, okay, So
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: if the big market teams are affected, the mid market
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: teams are affected, and the small market teams don't spend.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: This is where you also have issues to find teams
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: that are going to pay money in free agency. So
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: on the luxury tax threshold part, there are many teams
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that are paying about double the price for anybody that
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: they pick up. At this point, Edwin Diaz signed by
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. His number if you factor in the deferrals,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: is twenty one million, but he's costing the Dodgers about
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: forty three million. If the Dodgers got Kyle Tucker for
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: forty million year, he would cost them about eighty four mil.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays don't have as much of a hit, but
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: it's pretty close. Blue Jay's forty mil for Kyle Tucker
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: would cost them seventy six mils. So if we're just
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: doing rough numbers, like, he's costing double why luxury tax penalties?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: That's what a soft salary cap is. And so it
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: hits the Blue Jays, the Dodgers, the Mets, the Yankees. Right,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: there are a lot of teams that play ball for
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: these types of players, but in their brain they go, hey,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: this isn't forty. This guy costs US eighty million dollars
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: per season if we're over the luxury tax thresholds. Right,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: that's the rough mat. Now that's how they do it,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I know, but that's that is a barrier. That's an
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: obstacle for some teams.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: And then there's other teams that are like, we don't care.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Dodgers who said, will spend one hundred and
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: sixty nine million on the luxury tax because we won
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: the World Series and we're making two.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Hundred plus million off show he every year and Yamamoto
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: and Freddy.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: And playoff games and winning World Series merch Blue Jays
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: made one hundred plus. We'll get to that at Somes
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: made over one hundred million. Okay, So that's one part
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: of the puzzle.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: It's weird how when you win you make more money.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: That is the key stream life.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: I never have never heard that. Yeah, if you win,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: you make more money.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Some teams think, well, if I signed a Japanese player,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I get more marketing. But you know what also just
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: helps winning. Winning creates playoff games, creates more merch sales,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: more season ticket sales, blah blah blah, And okay, that's
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: one piece of the puzzle. The next one is an
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: article that came out that said nine MLB teams TV
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: money in jeopardy as FanDuel networks continue to struggle. This
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: article put together by Evandralik and Katie Wu, that network
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: has a chance of folding, has a chance of moving
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: to the zone which is looking to buy them. For
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: baseball fans to know, it means that baseball teams are
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: either going to get less money to stay on this
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: network than they were anticipating, or all of this ends
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: up going to the league taking over those teams, and
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: if that happens, they get no guaranteed money. It's more
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: of a rev split based on distribution of the percentage
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: of sales, sponsorship sales, etc. So, just to give an example,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: and the teams involved on this are the Braves, the Reds,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: the Tigers, the Royals, the Angels, the Marlins, the Brewers,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, the Rays, the Nats are probably likely hopping over.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: They weren't coming from this FANDL TV situation, but they
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: also are probably hopping over to MLB.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: What does this do?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: This creates cost uncertainty. Gms say how much can I spend?
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: And owners say, I don't know how much are we
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: getting getting in the local TV money? The national deals
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: are done for long time, right, they know how much
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: they're getting. One more year I take for the national deals, Well,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: they all end out after next year.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: It's after twenty six.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, sorry, after twenty eight, after twenty seven,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: after twenty seven. Let me give an example of a
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: local deal. Okay, and I'm just gonna throw a random
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: number out there. If you are the Cincinnati Reds and
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: you were getting fifty MILLLI a year, I'm making that
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: number up. Okay, fifty MILLI a year from the network
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty sixth season. That's either going to
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: get reduced or be gone. And instead of that number,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: MLB takes it over and they give you a percentage
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: of what you make for the year, which it end
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: up being half of that. So what happens ownership goes
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: to GM and says, hey, I don't know how much
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: we have now, and we might have half of that,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: we might have less than half of that. That creates
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: a huge issue with a bunch of these teams that
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: are I would say more in like the ten to twenty, right.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: The Cardinals, the Reds.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: The Tigers, the Royals, the Angels, even the Brewers. So
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: we have both of these factors combined. And when people
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: say why is there such a hold up with the
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: free agent market, this is one of those reasons.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: I can't argue that everything he said is true.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: But that's more recent news with the TV. Yeah, many gms.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: This is a really good article by Evan and Katie.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Many gms didn't see this part coming. They thought they
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: were okay, but.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Because fandals said they could cover it and now started
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: to miss payments. And when we say they missed that
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: NHL or NBA, they have already missed payments on certain teams,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: right the Cardinals, and they missed the card.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: They missed on the Cardinals. So what that does is
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it means the Cardinals can just get out of the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: deal now because they didn't get their payment or are
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: they're going to go. They most of them just go
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: to MLB. But then MLB's plan.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: Is the teams under their Yes, anyway, yes, this is
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: a Rob Manfred's dream.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: It is Rob Manfred's dream. They're going to have like
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: twenty something teams and then it's just.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: But then you have the Dodgers, the best separate, the
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, the Yankees, the Cubs that have their own
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I guess the White Sox you can throw in there.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: They have their own TV network. Phill Giants, Yeah, Phillies Giants,
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: but I'm talking like the Big Ones.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's a separate that's later on, yeah, right,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: but for now, this is the immediate is these teams
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: might not have a TV home right now, and if
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: they do, they will get less money than they anticipated.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: But yes, the Cardinals there was a mispayment. Main Street,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: which runs all of these sports networks. According to this
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: article from Evan Drelik, lost approximately two hundred million dollars
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five across its portfolio, which includes baseball.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: But they've also missed payments to NBA teams as well,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: and they have been NHL teams involved, So it sounds
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: a little complicated. I'm trying to simplify this for baseball terms.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: For baseball terms, there are teams that don't know how
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: much they can budget for their free agent spending. And
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: you might say, who cares. The teams can still afford
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: to do stuff. I agree, but that's not how things
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: are looked at.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Most owners are looking at their team and saying, this
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: is how much I have allotted for you to spend
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: for free agency. Right, you can spend fifty million dollars
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: on twenty twenty six contracts additional to what we already
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: have committed, and then the GM goes okay. And then
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: now in the past week, the owner might have gone
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: to his GM and said, just kidding, you have half
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: that because I'm anticipating about half that for the local
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: TV deal, and in terms of our big pot and
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: how I budget it, we just lost some money, agreed.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: So I just wanted to explain how that impact everything
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: and why it's going to make free agency even messier.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: And what's going to really happen is probably less money
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: for free agents. Will it affect the big boys as much?
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Probably not? But at you always love to say, is
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: who's going to get affected by this? Most most likely.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: The majority of big league players, not the superstars. The majority. Yes,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: that's it. That's where it's always going to be. Manipulation
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: of playing time or manipulation of service time. Salary salary
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: collusion doesn't affect the superstars. It's the eighty five percent
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: to eighty seven percent of guys in the league who
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: are one to six or one to six years of
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: service or the ones who are you know, that veteran
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: at the end of his career looking for one year deals.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Just squash eighty five percent of salaries down. It's totally
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: fine if we call up a prospect or even just
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: a triple A guy who's gonna make the league minim
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: because that's the easiest way to save money exactly.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're playing with right now. That's why
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: so many teams are in a state of limbo. You've
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: got about a third of the league in a state
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: of limbo based off their TV money. You've got another
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: third of the league that looks at most of free
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: agency now and says I need to factor in double
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: and then the other third of the league doesn't really
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: participate in free agency anyway.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Or much less. They play on the margins. They're looking
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: for the advantages on the margins.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Or or last year got involved or last year those
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: teams got fifteen plus million dollars from the luxury tax
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: from Rob Manford saying sorry about your local TV revenue,
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: will help you out. Now this year, sorry, we're not
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: giving you the extra It's like Christmas vacation. They gave it.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: He gave a Christmas bonus last year to those teams
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: whose local TV markets got crushed. Or you know we're
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: going through limbo and now Rob this year was like
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: you get Jelly of the Month club.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: You know why they're not doing that though, I'll back
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the league on this one. They'd be doing this for
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: like half the league at this point. There's too many
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: teams that they'd have to give these this extra money to.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: And then also it becomes a politics game. You're talking
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: to every owner on the phone. How come the race
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: got an extra fifteen in the rigs only got an
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: extra ten?
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: Like it?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: It gets pretty hairy pretty quickly. So, yes, what Kratz
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: is referring to is there was like kind of an
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: emergency slush fund situation they were giving teams. But that's
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: not happening anymore. So if you want to read more
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: about it and sound way smarter than we just did
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the athletic evandralic Katie Wu, go check it out.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what he said.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: That's what he said.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: That's what he said.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That's what he said. Well, the Dodgers don't get to
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: have all the fun with the Japanese media and the fanfare.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: The White Sox will have fun, but the Blue Jays
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: will also have a lot of fun with Kazuma O
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Komodo aka big Baby aka Big Oak or Kazu works
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: fine too. Those are some of the nicknames that he
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: threw out there, and he said, his agent, Boris came.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: Can nickname yourself kid, big Oak, little Oak? Like baaby
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: no can nickname herself?
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: He didn't come up with big Oak, Boris did.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of like him doing it though.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So the fans just have to organically.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: It has to be organic bring it. Can't just be
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: like you know, cratses. Can't walk out there and be like,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: call me special k what.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Do you think of this? Nope, say all thirty MLB
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: logos in front of his daughter and she pointed to
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the Blue Jays and that plus sixty million dollars, is
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: why he decided on the Blue Jays.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Duh, No, it's more than sixty million. Yeah. If his
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: if his daughter would have picked the Pirates but they
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: didn't want I'd be like, I'm going to the Pirates.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: They only offered me.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: They did want them, but probably for half the press. Yeah, exactly.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: So the Blue Jays now will have a Japanese player
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: who was a star in the NPB, and apparently it
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: was just flooded with Japanese media, tons of coverage of
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: this press conference, and he put on a show Kratz.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: It gets us into the bigger conversation of a pretty
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: epic run for the Blue Jays right now in the offseason,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: and that could continue with their pursuit of someone like
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker. But there was an article put out there
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: by Rob Longley, who writes for the Toronto Sun, and
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: within that he said the Blue Jays postseason run was
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: estimated to be worth one hundred million dollars to Rogers.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: They own the Blue Jays. One hundred million dollars.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: It's Careada.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: It's not just amazing.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: It's not just Toronto, it's not just iron A's can
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: it like when you're coming over from Japan. You can
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: go to Vancouver. Vancouver's beautiful, like there's everybody thinks Seattle,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: you know, La, You're going to West coast San Francisco.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: But there is a there's a strong contingent that I
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: think the Blue Jays saw in the playoffs. But I
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: would be I would you know, you would not even
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: be thinking back too far if you're like, oh wow,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: they just realized this. In the playoffs. They went hard
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: after Otani. Did they ever have a chance. That's not
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: to be discussed. Roki Sasaki, they went hard after him.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: They've known this for a while and now they got
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: to see it in the playoffs. Some people forget they
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: did that. They did that advertising on the UH. I
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: think it was a mixed martial arts or it could
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: have been boxing ring in Japan that was on TV,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: like they Blue Jay's logo was there. Good for them,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Good for them. This is something that they're not afraid
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: to take advantage of. And now they have a player
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: who is he a star? No he's not Otani. No
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: he's not Yamamoto, He's not you know, he probably isn't
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: even the level of star. Start him as Imai, but
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: you know what, he's their guy and it's going to
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: bring so much when you play. I'm sure AJ knows
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: he played with different Japanese players, but when you play
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: with a Japanese player, it doesn't matter if he's not
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: a star or not. I played with Aki Noori Yuwamura,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: who was a gold Glover over in Japan at the
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: end of his career in Pittsburgh, and he had a
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: contingent of a few reporters. The better the player, the
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: more contingent of reporters, that means the more coverage for
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: your team. Oh yeah, and he's a good player. And
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: the Blue Jays were on the cusp of winning the
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: World Series last year, so it's a great move by them.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Twenty thirteen to twenty fifteen, Do you know who the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: most popular player on the Blue Jays was?
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: Uh kasuk the Muna Nori Kawasaki. I had the funny interviews.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: Well never crowned, yes, yep. Getting back to but by the.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Way, people, people that have never been to Toronto crash you.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: You played there, so you understand this. I don't know
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: if you've ever been there, Ska, but many times it
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: is an international city. It's not it's it's not.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Just it feels more like Europe than it does it
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: does in the US. It does, right, I've been there
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: many times in that party, it is.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: More of an Internet. And then if you go to Vancouver,
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: which I don't know if you guys have ever been
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: to Vancouver, it is even more. It's even more because
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: it's on the West coast, so you're closer to Asia.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Right, So you have a lot of Montreals very European.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, but Toronto, for an East coast city like
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: that is very international. And before people say yes, of
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: course is international in Canada, I mean not non North American, right, Like,
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: it feels like there are people from everywhere that descend
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: upon Toronto. So if you can tap into the Asian
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: markets we talked to well but Jerry Reinsorf a couple
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: of days ago in the White Sox when they signed
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Mark Company. Right, it taps into this Japanese cultural thing
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: about baseball that they have where they want to know
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: everything about every player. And I played with Tadahito Gucci
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: when he came over, and I played with some other
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Japanese guy. I played with you Darvish when he was
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: just coming over they're they're following is incredible. They everything
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: they do. They don't know how many swings they had
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: and beap, how many bullpen pitches they threw, how many
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: this they did, how many PE's they took today. I
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: mean it's like how many hairs did they cut when
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: they got an haircut. It's incredible. It's it's actually a
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: little bit insane sometimes to me.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: It's kind of like how the NFL is Sometimes like
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: some stupid story becomes a big thing and they're like,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: why is this the thing. It's just because it's the
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: most popular sport in the country. So take that and
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: plus it up because there's less competition for sports that
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: they're interested in. I mean, baseball dominates in Japan. Back
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: to Canada for a moment. It's not just the post
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: season ticket sales and the merch and season ticket sales
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: for the next year, the whole deal. This article also
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: talks about an enormous boost to Sportsnet that's an all
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: sports channel that battles with Bell Media owned TSN. Right,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: those are the big networks up in Canada. And they said,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: you know, television in general, obviously in cable has faced
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: challenges and there are less subscribers. Many of them are
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: on spots like YouTube. With us, there's still plenty, but
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: it's more of a battle, right So the Blue Jays
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: success made making sure you have that channel a high priority,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: and Edward Rogers told the Financial Post, We've done very
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: well at getting a lot of sports fans who may
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: not have a traditional cable package. So keeping that audience
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: growing is important, and we think sports nets prospects are
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: very strong. So they spoke about how it goes beyond
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: just what you're seeing at the ballpark and making the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: playoffs and all of that, Like, it's a huge TV
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: business that people are signing up for to get subscriptions.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: But they do spell Sports Center with.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: An R at the end. Which one and there's a
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: lot of offense with the C isn't rumor r U
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: m O U R.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's some different spellings out there.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: I respect all of it. It's just one of my
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: best friends.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: It's one of the weirdest things, though, when you go
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: up there for the first time, like when you're a
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: young player and you go to Toronto for the first summer.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: Even when I was in Triple A, we did Calgary
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: and Edmonton and Vancouver, and some of the other places.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: And you go up there and you turn on TSN
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: and it's a sports center and it's spelled different, and
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: you look at your roommate. You're like, wait, do I
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: see things because you used you were at the time.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: You're used to ESPN right and sports center sports center
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: and they go welcome to sports Center on TSN, and
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: you're like, wait, something's not right. Spell just spelled wrong.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: I love it. No, it's a great I love going
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: to I love Toronto, I do. I love going there.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: It was fun, really really good baseball to have the
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays be so relevant right now, they got to
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: follow it up. But the front office and ownership is
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: doing everything they can to say, damn, we made a
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: ton of money one hundred mili plus, let's spend.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: And the helps of the Canadian dollar, helps of the
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Canadian dollars a little bit stronger too than it has
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: been in the last few years, just saying it's a
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: team that there's there's a lot of there's a lot
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: of extra cash on the margins there when the team
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: you get half your checking Canadian half of it from
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: you get it all in US dollars, but part of
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: it comes from Canadian dollars translated, and then part of
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: it is the US dollar. Right.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot of math behind the scene that
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: can make it either either easier or more difficult that
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: MGM futures regular season win totals. Hey, you can make
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: some money if you've got an inclination of what you
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: think is going to go down in an off season. Right,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: if you're one of those people that think, say, the
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Yankees are going to do two three more things this offseason,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: then you might look at this win total and say, okay,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: under the number for the Yankees is ninety three and
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: a half. One tend to win a hundo? Is it
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: the biggest reason for this the division as a whole,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: even bigger than what you think the Yankees are going
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: to do? Right, Yes, you need the Yankees to win
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: ninety four games to cash this if you're going with
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: the over. But I mean, the Red Sox look like
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: they're going to be good, the Blue Jays look like
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: they're going to be very much of her to be
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: much better, and the Rays of the race and the
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Rays I mean maybe a drop under five hundred projected
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: for this year. Where's your easy wins on that division.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: So crats, are you taking the over under?
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: I'm under under under. I can't I can't not take
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: the under. You know how many teams outside of the
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: American League East had more than that more than that
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: many wins, more than ninety three wins two?
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Why is it so high?
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Because are the Yankees? They got to put a big
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: number out in order to get people to better hus
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: it's the East and they both know now the Blue Jays.
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: The Blue Jays and the Yankees both had ninety four
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: last year. It's just such a tough I don't care
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: who's made what moves. I don't care if you think
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are still better than the Blue Jays. Like
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: they're just gonna beat each other up. They're gonna beat
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: each other up more than any other division. And they're
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: it's the best division in the American League. Nobody's gonna
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: really deny that. But to say ninety four wins, To
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: say the Yankees are gonna have a better year than
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: they did last year, Why because Garrett Cole came back,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Why because Cody Bellinger's going to sign back, Like I
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: just Trent Grisham's gonna have a better year than he did.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Last year, Jazz Chisholm's gonna have a better year, Like,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: I just think it's gonna be tougher. It'sn'na be tougher.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: And I think this is a this is smashed for me.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: I'm smashing it today. Locking it in, thanks, boys.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. Lock that in doesn't mean that they'll
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: have a bad year, but no, a very successful season
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: might be ninety one wins. That's a huge difference from
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: ninety four when you're looking for an edge, when you're
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: looking for some value on something like this.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, it was they're a ninety one team.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: I think this would have ninety four wins is a
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: good year.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this would have been more challenging if
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: they put, like to me, the correction.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: They put it in ninety one.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, in that range, that's where it's like, I'm not
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: touching that. But ninety three and a half looks like.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because we're talking about historic year. If they go
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: if they go ninety six wins, if they go ninety
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: six wins in this season, to me, it would be
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: a historic year for them. It would be a like
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: they are hitting on all cylinders and people will say, well,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: that's just two two wins different. That's a lot of
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: freaking That's a lot of freaking wins in a tough division.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Not a tough American league, just a tough division.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: And I'll add this, sometimes it's worth seeing how the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: season starts and then finding value in the win total.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: I would not do that with the Yankees because a
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: lot of their rotation is going to come back as
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: the year goes on. The Yankees also are now second
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: fiddle to the Dodgers in baseball in many ways, right,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: and it's a copycat league. I think they're going to
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: try and take a page out of LA's book and
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: be like, how can we be as stacked as possible
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: for the playoffs? Obviously you got to get there, but
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: counting win.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: It's a tough division. When you throw in the fact
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: that the Orioles and Blue Jays are good because forever
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: it was kind of Yankees, Red Sox, then the Orioles,
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: like it's like one team would always have a run.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: The Blue Jays at times are good, The Orioles at
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: times are good. Right, but now you have four teams
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: that are legitimately think they can win in the race.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: The Rays always think they can win. But if you
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: look right now on paper, the four teams Red Sox,
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Yankees Orioles Blue Jays are all stacked ready to go
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: at least, so getting four teams from one division is
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: next to them possible into the postseason.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: There's going to be a really pissed off fan base. Yes,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: a really big pissed off at least fan base.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Wait, do you see the Brewers number anyway? I won't.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: I won't ruin it for anybody. So exciting it's fun
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: for me. Yeah.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Well, we've moved on to win totals and we're excited
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: for them. Okay, for now, you don't have baseball to
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: bet on besides futures, So if you want to hit
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  Speaker 1: up the NBA, there's a NBA No Sweat token that
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• 23:56
  Speaker 1: for more details. Gambling problem more concern called when hundred gambler.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: You know Cyrus and Will Salmon wrote an article about
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: Fam graphs, not fan Fam with an m fam Graphs.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Tommy Fam makes his case for MLB's next big metric.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Tommy Fam is one of the.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Most We got to get him on to discuss this.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: He is so entertaining. But anyway, he's completely laying out
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: all kinds of sun, wind, all kinds of discrepancies in
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: statistics out above average, but what about the sun and wind?
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: And then also he yeah, like let's start here. He
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: remembers a play that frustrated him. He's like a game
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. He's playing left field. Balls hit about three
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty feet ninety miles per hour off the bat,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: short hops the outfield wall, wind carries it. He was
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: playing in he couldn't get to the ball, and he
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: said that really hurt his defensive numbers because stat cast
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't factor the win part. A quote from Fam. When
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: I learned that, I'm like, Okay, if the win's blowing out,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: I need to play a little bit deeper. It's a
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: really flawed system, but it's getting factored into our value.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: He gives a lot of credit to certain players within
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: this article too, he gives a ton of love to
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: pee Ker Armstrong. He's like Peaker Armstrom's even better than
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the numbers, which love him because he has to navigate
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the Wrigley wins every day.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: But it's not just that.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: He also gets into how hitting statistics are drastically affected
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: by the team that you're on, and it goes beyond
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: your lineup support. He said that being on the Pirates
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: this past season means that you're playing in a ton
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: of close games. The team that was pretty good on
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the pitching side, pretty awful on the hitting side, and
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: they were often playing in these close games against good
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: teams that would use their high leverage guys. He said
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: that versus if you're like on a very successful team
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: that has a good offense and you're winning some ten
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: two games and then you're and you know it's like six'
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: two that turns into ten. Two you're facing the mop
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: up guys like we didn't get those abs and there
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: actually was stats done by guys like you know in
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: the article that said he's got a, point, No but
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the answer from GM's in front offices was we we
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: have our internal system factors that into so we even.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: There's no such thing as clutch. HERE i don't forget
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: it right, there there's not a. Clutch gene and RBIs don't.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: Matter and, YEAH i, LISTEN i think this is pretty
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: cool that a current player is calling out a lot of.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: THINGS i always say. THIS i remember we'd go To
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: detroit and they would always find a negative number on
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: you to throw up on the giant scoreboard they have
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: in left, field and it would be like when the
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: do point is seventy two degrees on A tuesday afternoon
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: and the wind's blowing in at seven point six miles per,
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: hour he HITS o sixty two and you're, like, huh
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: what what are they? Talking? Like this is kind of
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: WHAT fam was talking. About and, listen win plays, factors
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: sun plays, factors, hangovers play, factors. Tiredness, well that's BUT i,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: mean it's all that's not to blank like. That but good,
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: teams bad. Teams he has a point on good teams
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: and bad. Teams but you said it has nothing to
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: do with lineup. Construction usually better teams have better, Lineups so,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: yes it has something to do with lineup. CONSTRUCTION i believe.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: It who's sitting, where who's? Hitting like When Won soto
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: hit in front Of Aaron, judge he got on. Base you,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: know he got a lot more fastballs to.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: Hit, yeah but he's still had a great.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: Season, no he, did but he also got a lot
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: more fastballs did because they didn't want to Face, judge, right,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: RIGHT i MEAN i know WHEN i hit Behind Barry,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Bonds Barry bonds walked two hundred and seventy five, times
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: that hear because they were, like we'll rather face. Him
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: and then they put a guard Of fonzo behind me behind,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: him and he still walked two hundred and seventy five, times,
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: Right so it does.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Matter so here for the public to, know The pirates
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: had the highest average leverage in the sport as a,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: lineup meaning on, average their games were tighter than anyone
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: else's and every at bat potentially means more in terms
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: of win, probability and it means that they're facing most
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: likely the higher leverage. Relievers so this was like confirmed
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: by the stat. Nerds they, say you're, right and a
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: public stat like what weighted runs created plus doesn't factor that.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: In APPARENTLY ops plus factors other than a little, bit
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: which is WHY i continue to love that. Statistic But.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Kratz the answer from front offices is, yeah we get,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: it and the public might not see at, all but
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: we do factor that stuff in AND i believe. Them
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: so it's a good call out By, fam and if,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: anything it just means that we should either take some
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: of the public stats with a grain of salt or
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: continue to improve the public stats so it factors in
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the things that he's talking.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: About, yeah one hundred, percent OR i, mean did we
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: even factor and you saw you talked about lineup. Construction
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: Tommy fam hitting on The pirates is going to be
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: hitting in a different spot in the lineup Than Tommy
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: fam hitting on The dodgers Or Tommy fam hitting on The.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Phillies part of that, is you, know your part of your.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: Decision we talk about all the time when you sign,
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: someplace do you want to go somewhere that? Stinks do
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: you want to go somewhere that's. Good you're going to
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: be used as a higher leverage, piece which the other
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: teams are going to, say we can't Let Tommy fam
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: beat us because The pirates just called some guy up
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: that we don't, know and we'll let him beat, us you.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: Know so they're gonna pitch they're gonna pitch those guys differently,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Too SO i think it's the, points, though are very.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Negligible it's not Like Tommy fam' is gonna have an
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: eight HUNDRED ops if he had played on another team
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: and not a six seventy FIVE. Ops like it's it's
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: going to it's. Negligible it's fifteen, points but that looks
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: way better if you've had a seven HUNDRED ops than
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: a six to seventy FIVE, Ops.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Right and that's his. Point, Yeah guys grinding out at
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: bats and then it gets to you in the lineup
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: and then the pitcher's worn. Down there's all kinds of.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Factors the stats aren't. Perfect use your eye test in
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: addition to what you're seeing. Statistically