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Market Shock: Navigating Geopolitical Turmoil and Record Gold Highs · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:02
  This is your host , Penny Profit , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:06
  It is 5 am on Monday , March 2nd , 2026 , here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:13
  If you are just waking up and checking your portfolio , you might want to grab an extralarge coffee because we are looking at a heavy riskoff session to start the week .
• 0:23
  Over the weekend , geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reached a boiling point following a major military operation involving U.S.
• 0:31
  and Israeli strikes .
• 0:33
  This has sent shockwaves through the global markets .
• 0:36
  Right now , the S&P 500 futures are down between 1.3 and 1.7 percent , testing that critical 6,800 support level .
• 0:48
  The techheavy Nasdaq100 is feeling even more pain , dropping over 2 percent as investors pull back from highgrowth AI and software names .
• 0:57
  Meanwhile , the Dow is down over 500 points in early trading .
• 1:02
  On the flip side , gold has surged to an alltime record high , crossing 5,300 dollars per ounce as investors flee to the greenback and safe havens like the GLD ETF .
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  It is a tale of two markets out there .
• 1:18
  Because of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz , oil prices are skyhigh .
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  Brent Crude jumped 11 percent to 79 dollars , while WTI is up 8 percent .
• 1:29
  This is helping the Energy sector , with the XLE ETF and companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron seeing premarket gains of 3 to 5 percent .
• 1:38
  Defense stocks are also rallying ; Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are up as Operation Epic Fury intensifies .
• 1:46
  However , it is a tough day for tech .
• 1:49
  Nvidia is continuing its recent slide , down 4 percent , and we are seeing massive drops in highbeta names like CoreWeave , which plunged 18 percent , and Zscaler , which is down 12 percent .
• 2:02
  There are a few bright spots , though !
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  Dell Technologies is up a whopping 22 percent thanks to a massive 30 billion dollar buyback program .
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  Netflix is also up 13 percent after exiting a deal with Warner and receiving a 2.8 billion dollar break fee .
• 2:20
  AMD is even bucking the semiconductor trend , gaining over 7 percent after a landmark 60 billion dollar AI chip deal with Meta .
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  So , what does this mean for the bigger picture ?
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  We are seeing a classic war trade combined with a major inflation scare .
• 2:36
  With January core inflation remaining sticky around 3 percent and oil prices spiking , the hope for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March is essentially gone .
• 2:48
  Most analysts expect the Fed to hold rates steady at their current 3.5 to 3.75 percent range well into the second half of 2026 .
• 2:58
  We are also waiting on the ISM Manufacturing PMI report today to see if the economy can handle these rising energy costs .
• 3:06
  To navigate this turbulence , here are a few moves to consider .
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  First , look at hedging for volatility and inflation .
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  We recommend being overweight in Gold via the GLD ETF and Energy through Exxon Mobil .
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  These provide a safety net while energy supplies are under a black swan threat .
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  Second , look at defensive positioning in Aerospace and Defense .
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  Military spending is nondiscretionary during conflicts , so the iShares U.S.
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  Aerospace and Defense ETF , or ITA , and Lockheed Martin are strong considerations .
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  Third , be very cautious with highgrowth tech .
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  We suggest trimming exposure to the QQQ and moving toward cashrich companies like Dell that show resilience through buybacks .
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  Finally , for fixed income , stick to the iShares Core U.S.
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  Aggregate Bond ETF , or AGG , but avoid longterm Treasury bonds like TLT .
• 4:04
  Rising inflation from oil makes longduration bonds a bit too risky right now .
• 4:10
  Stay safe out there and keep a close eye on those charts !