Latest / The Curve / Bargain Leggings, Bonds Booming & a Teen Ban Down Under.

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Bargain Leggings, Bonds Booming & a Teen Ban Down Under. · The Curve

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all of the money
• 0:04
  business in stock market too.
• 0:06
  Brought to you by the Curve's research team, it's the latest insights on what's happening
• 0:09
  in the stock market, companies, other money related news so that you can stay educated and
• 0:14
  ahead of the curve.
• 0:15
  You can thank us later for sounding smarter than those finance bros you need to know, buddy.
• 0:19
  Where are you recording the same thing, sir?
• 0:22
  Honestly, do you know what?
• 0:24
  I do my best to make the podcast look glamour for podcast aesthetics, but right now I'm
• 0:32
  broadcasting live from my parents' kitchen.
• 0:35
  And they're watching Netflix, they're watching White Lotus with their headphones and so they
• 0:41
  don't disturb us, at least.
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  And you can just hear the occasional knife screeching across the plate.
• 0:46
  I'm like, jeez, quiet!
• 0:48
  Quiet, I know I'm in your living room, but they know that I've been here for three months
• 0:54
  and I'm your oldest child and I'm still like leeching off you.
• 0:58
  Not my finest, also, okay, off brand for me, but I'm having a drink.
• 1:04
  This is, I don't normally drink when I'm stressed, I normally know it's going to make me more
• 1:08
  anxious the next day, but this is a special occasion.
• 1:11
  Glow, glow, glow, can I have a quick vent like I need to sort of get off my chest?
• 1:17
  Okay, yeah, no, just on the White Lotus stuff.
• 1:22
  It's actually, someone sent it to me the other day and I was like, oh my goodness.
• 1:25
  So White Lotus, every single cast member got paid exactly the same for the latest series.
• 1:33
  Yeah.
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  And it's quite a big deal.
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  Yeah, because it's like usually women get paid less or even if they're in leading roles
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  versus men.
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  And so they just made a blanket rule in the contract that every cast member no matter how famous
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  or how un-famous.
• 1:48
  That's famous.
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  Yeah.
• 1:50
  Go White Lotus.
• 1:51
  How's the show going, guys?
• 1:56
  I don't know how they're watching it.
• 1:57
  Have they got one airport, oh my, they're so cute, they've got one airport in each.
• 2:02
  Okay, so my vent, my rant.
• 2:05
  So I spoke about this on socials.
• 2:09
  I feel like maybe, I don't know, two months ago, I put up a story about this whole like
• 2:13
  egg freezing thing because I've been like, do I want to invest $14,000 into getting
• 2:18
  out?
• 2:19
  Is that how much for us now?
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  It's gone up to $14,000.
• 2:22
  And that's not including storage.
• 2:24
  Is that New Zealand dollars?
• 2:26
  Yeah.
• 2:27
  New Zealand.
• 2:28
  Yeah.
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  So what, like £7,000 or something?
• 2:30
  Yeah.
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  But I, I had this appointment today with the, I don't know, they were talking about like
• 2:35
  how you administer the injections and blah, blah.
• 2:37
  And I at this point, by the way, haven't even decided if I definitely am going to do it
• 2:40
  or not.
• 2:41
  I was kind of, I'm kind of just going along with it because if I want to do it before
• 2:44
  I leave New Zealand, I have like a finite amount of time, like I have to do it this cycle
• 2:48
  if I want to do it.
• 2:50
  So I'm still really on the fence because it feels like so much money for also, sorry,
• 2:55
  but like such shit odds.
• 2:57
  I know.
• 2:58
  I don't know if you remember, but I was, they were essentially like, so if we get 10 eggs,
• 3:02
  which is very unlikely, you have a 40% chance of one of those turning into a baby.
• 3:07
  I was like, oh, epic.
• 3:10
  So like not only is this breaking the bank, but it's also not even like what a shit insurance
• 3:16
  policy.
• 3:17
  I was like, if someone, because we all talk about it like that.
• 3:21
  So many of us are like, oh, it's the insurance policy, you know, it's the blah, blah, blah.
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  But like if you're insurance policy, only 40% likely to pay out of something we've
• 3:29
  followed.
• 3:30
  Imagine if you die.
• 3:31
  You got life insurance.
• 3:32
  You died and they're like, oh, there's a 40% chance we can pay out, but we're not
• 3:36
  going to know until it happens.
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  It's not, it's not, it shouldn't be talked about like an insurance policy because it's
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  not.
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  No.
• 3:42
  How many eggs did you get?
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  Four.
• 3:45
  I mean, that's nothing like honestly.
• 3:47
  I was really annoyed and they were like, you can do another round.
• 3:50
  I was like, yeah, of course I can't.
• 3:51
  Sure.
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  Because I've got another $10,000 and I was like, is this, they must do it on purpose.
• 3:56
  I was like, oops, we didn't give you enough hormones.
• 3:58
  Yeah.
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  I was like, at what point do they, like it's a money-making thing.
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  It's a business.
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  So this is exactly what I thought I was like, and that's why I'm drinking my feelings
• 4:08
  right now, which I do not condone and I normally wouldn't do this.
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  But I had to come home and get into bed.
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  I ate chocolate.
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  I made myself two massive toasted sandwiches, so much cheese.
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  And I lay in bed and I watched Gossip Girl, which is my numb out, like that's the equivalent
• 4:23
  of me getting high, like having a joint.
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  I'm surprised you have any episodes left to be honest.
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  I don't.
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  I just rewatched them all the time.
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  But I was just like, this is shit, like it is so expensive to be a woman from like what
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  we've spent on our hair, to our base, to our clothes, to now we have to pay for a few
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  extra years of fertility when some shit-old 75-year-old man could pop out a baby tomorrow.
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  I'm just like, how do we got a shit into the stick?
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  I've inject myself with hormones, like, ugh.
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  I remember the male doctor saying, yeah, you have to inject yourself in a room, and
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  I was like, oh, does it hurt?
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  He's like, no, no, no, no, no, no, like the whole process, like doesn't hurt, like very,
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  very minimal.
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  And I was like, how the eff would you know?
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  Do you inject your stomach?
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  Yeah.
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  I was like, have you been through this process?
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  Anyhow, I was just like, about like, probably homeowner anyway.
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  And I think the other thing, sorry, I'm really on one, but the other thing that annoys
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  me is that like, it's not only the money, it's not only, but even the idea of putting
• 5:24
  all of those hormones in my body, like I'm going to be a total birch for the next month.
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  You knew imagine?
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  I'm going to be like, oh, I need a nap.
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  Well, that's why I was having a drink, because they're like, you've got to pretend
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  to be pregnant for the month.
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  So you can't have any alcohol.
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  You might have headaches the whole time, you might want a nap, and I'm like, oh, God,
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  sorry.
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  I know it's a real privilege, even consider doing it.
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  Like I realize that I'm just, I think just the whole system I'm in, but eff it off
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  it.
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  We put out a post a while ago, I don't know what it was, but there was like one response
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  that was, you know, that women should be paid to have children.
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  Do you know what I mean?
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  Yeah, and like the cost to us financially from taking time out of work, the implications
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  on our body, like it's so true, we should be paid to procreate, in my opinion.
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  Totally.
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  I mean, let's literally put out, yeah, we put our bodies on the line, we put our brains
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  on the line, we put our careers on the line, we put our earning capacity, we put, and
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  then the children get the father's name.
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  Like, sorry.
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  There is just so many noises happening, can you have like sirens and stuff like it's
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  quite chaotic.
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  But, yeah, I was listening to this podcast, maybe Chetfield, in fact, maybe we'll insert
• 6:35
  some of the audio from it.
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  The spread of the whole trowed wife and the romanticisation of that is really fucking
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  scaring me and not only isn't a romanticised, but it's being presented as feminist.
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  Have you seen this?
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  Listen, I can understand how it works its way within feminism, because it's a choice
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  to be someone who is a homemaker, I think what's disturbing to me is that those women
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  who are presenting themselves as homemakers, they've had their hair and make-up professionally
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  done, you know, someone else is filming them, you know, and it's all set up and lit
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  really beautifully and they're dressed impeccably.
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  There's no baby sick on their shoulder, there's no real representation, they're selling
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  you a man's fantasy of how easy it is to be a housewife, whereas any of us who've got
• 7:18
  mates who are housewives, we know that their life is like, what's it called, grand theft
• 7:24
  auto?
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  It's like a game of grand theft auto.
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  It's just like chaos and danger and baby sick and lactation and it looks like post-war
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  propaganda.
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  You know, the hairstyles, even in that post-war hairstyle, and you know, there's like,
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  remember those adverts being like, you know, for a vacuum and it shows like a beautifully
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  dressed woman in the 40s, like, hoovering and like, she's so happy and her kids are so
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  happy and her husband's so happy and his business is soon.
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  And so, so what we're seeing is something that's actually literally been done before.
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  We have the physical paraphernalia of that time that we can go back and look at and be like,
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  oh, look, that's familiar.
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  That was leading to our direct oppression that led to women in there, you know, then the
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  50s and 60s having to be medicated to get through this fantasy of being a housewife,
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  right?
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  And then being hospitalized, put in mental institutions if they, if they didn't enjoy it
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  and if they resisted it in any way, you know, you can read countless tales of women who,
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  if they were not okay with the status quo, we're being sectioned and I'm like, that's
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  not impossible now.
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  That can start happening again.
• 8:33
  I think maybe that's what's got me a little bit riled up where I'm just thinking about
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  and she's spoken this, I actually highly recommend listening to the whole thing.
• 8:40
  I'll link, we'll link it in the podcast show notes, but we spend so much time, money, attention
• 8:46
  focusing on making ourselves smaller and quieter and more, all of the things and it's
• 8:54
  such a distraction from what we're all really capable of doing.
• 8:59
  And it's like this, I don't know, it's just that those she spoke about, she was like,
• 9:03
  do we all look at Afghanistan and look at like how incredibly like fucked that whole
• 9:09
  situation is and think that looks like a dream, I want to be there.
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  Or like, do we think that it makes men feel great if you're like the entire economy's
• 9:17
  on their shoulders, no, like there's just so many things wrong with the way that the
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  world is heading right now and it's stressing me out.
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  And I think the cherry on top was me having to go and like inject myself with hormones
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  to give myself more years of fertility, I'm just like, maybe I just do a big giant
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  FU and I'm just like, nah, I'm not going to shave my legs, I'm not going to, I'm not
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  going to do it, you know, like I just have like a real moment, like, nah, I'm not going
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  to do my fertility, not going to wear deodorant.
• 9:45
  You do you, boo, yeah, sorry, I'm just, yeah, that's right, take a sip.
• 9:54
  Speaking of insurance, we actually had the most, I literally bought me the tears, we had
• 9:59
  the most incredible message come through.
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  Yeah, this is going to make me cry if we're ready to sell.
• 10:03
  Already feeling vulnerable plus the alcohol.
• 10:06
  I just wanted to let you both know that I turned 35 recently with the breast cancer
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  diagnosis.
• 10:12
  I self-checked, so I caught the lump very early and have a great prognosis, although
• 10:17
  a shit road ahead.
• 10:18
  I had only just discovered your podcast at the start of this year and I've devoured every
• 10:21
  episode.
• 10:22
  So yes, I have insurance, I had a well-established emergency fund and I've been able to distract
• 10:27
  myself with the ins and outs investments.
• 10:29
  What you've created has literally been a lifeline for a millennial woman like me.
• 10:33
  So thank you and a reminder to your community that if they haven't gone back to those amazing
• 10:37
  insurance episodes you did to do that and also a reminder with May coming up that we need
• 10:42
  to know how to self-check our own breasts.
• 10:45
  Many of my friends didn't know how or that they had to because they bought that they're
• 10:50
  in their 20s and 30s meant that they were low risk, but it turns out that Kiwi woman
• 10:54
  have a 12% chance of getting this.
• 10:57
  It was like such a beautiful message, like honestly, I can't even.
• 11:02
  And the fact that she got insurance and that she had an emergency fund before that happened
• 11:06
  is just like, I mean, I can't even imagine tomorrow, if someone telling me that that's
• 11:14
  my diagnosis, but to know that she had insurance and that she had an emergency fund.
• 11:20
  And just being able to focus on going through that emotionally rather than the financial
• 11:24
  stress, it's like one less thing you have to worry about.
• 11:27
  And I think that just, like, I've never been through this, but I can only imagine that
• 11:32
  would help with dealing with such a traumatic event, like, yeah, and with all the conversations
• 11:39
  about me forgetting to get insurance, you know, of travel and for pet, it's just, I
• 11:44
  don't know, it was quite a fortuitous time to be sent this message of just like how important
• 11:49
  insurance is, and it might seem so insignificant, but when it's not until things like this happen,
• 12:00
  and you could be the unlucky 12%, by the way, that's so high.
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  I know.
• 12:05
  Anyway, I thought it was, yeah, a really beautiful message and thank you for all.
• 12:08
  I just, what are we doing?
• 12:09
  We're going to focus.
• 12:10
  I'm like, so wild up and sad and like, no, I'm not sad.
• 12:16
  Yeah, I know.
• 12:17
  I also loved her bit, which she was like distracting me with ins and outs and investments.
• 12:20
  I was like, yeah, that's good.
• 12:23
  You know, like we, we put out these things where we, we teach people and we, we educate
• 12:27
  them about insurance and emergency funds, but you know, it's actually, I love how she
• 12:33
  said, you're distracting me with ins and outs and investments.
• 12:36
  It's a cool distraction, in my opinion.
• 12:38
  Yeah, it's better than tech talk or Instagram.
• 12:40
  Yeah, it's actually educational while we hope.
• 12:43
  Oh, man.
• 12:45
  On that, in terms of distracting everybody with our investments chat, we have a bit
• 12:49
  of a tariff update, I honestly think this is going to be part of our regular programming
• 12:54
  for a while.
• 12:55
  Do we call it the tariff weekly?
• 12:57
  Oh, wow.
• 12:58
  You are on fire.
• 13:02
  Not be tricked.
• 13:05
  Leave me to the content.
• 13:06
  Most people get funnier when they have alcohol.
• 13:09
  I just turn into mom joke.com.
• 13:11
  Anyway, update is that over the past week, there's been an announcement that smartphones
• 13:17
  and laptops will be exempt from tariffs.
• 13:20
  So naturally, this meant Apple's share price absolutely roofed it on the day that that
• 13:28
  was announced.
• 13:29
  Also, some other interesting things that are coming out is like Hong Kong has stopped sending
• 13:34
  parcels to the US.
• 13:36
  China's ordered its airlines to take no further deliveries of Boeing airplanes.
• 13:44
  Like this is quite interesting.
• 13:45
  All the stuff.
• 13:46
  Sorry, so Boeing is the American airline.
• 13:48
  Boeing's American airline and it supplies aircrafts to so many different airlines around
• 13:52
  the world.
• 13:53
  This is turning into the biggest shit fight ever.
• 13:55
  I know.
• 13:56
  It's such a tit for tat.
• 13:58
  So the tariff now on Chinese goods is 145%, which is so bad.
• 14:06
  Like I'm starting to get emails from retailers being like, hey, any orders over $800 because
• 14:11
  that's a threshold is going to be subject to this increase in tariff.
• 14:16
  Wait, so if you spend less than 800, you don't get worked with a tariff for now, yeah.
• 14:21
  That's fine.
• 14:22
  Just don't spend over 800.
• 14:23
  Yeah, but what if you're buying a Boeing jet?
• 14:28
  Can I just buy a one door and then one toilet seat?
• 14:33
  But the other thing that we've seen happen is Timo and Shien have seen sales jump, like
• 14:40
  super, super high because American shoppers all kind of flooded to their websites to buy
• 14:46
  goods before this happened.
• 14:48
  But the thing that I find the most interesting and I was talking about this with a friend
• 14:53
  yesterday is that I'm not sure if you've been on TikTok.
• 14:57
  But there has been almost like this revolt and Chinese factories that make Lula Leman,
• 15:07
  Irmirs, Prada, like all these brands for Europe and the US has started to go direct to
• 15:15
  the Rector Customers and go, hey, this is the name of our factory.
• 15:18
  This is how you can buy it and selling $8 Lula Leman leggings.
• 15:23
  They allowed?
• 15:25
  Well, I know, I think there's like legal stuff, but it's also, they're just exposing the
• 15:29
  fact that a lot of these French luxury brands and European luxury brands are like, they're
• 15:35
  actually made in China and they're like, this is, you know, you can make a certain percentage
• 15:39
  of a product in China and then get it shipped to France, for example.
• 15:43
  And then it's made in France if you just put the finishing touches on it.
• 15:46
  But it's just funny how they're like, you know what, if you US, we're just going to go,
• 15:51
  we're going to expose that and just go direct because if the operations are being moved from
• 15:58
  the factory to the US and they're probably never getting their business back,
• 16:03
  the kind of doesn't matter if you, if over the contract or do you know what I mean?
• 16:07
  So, sorry. So basically is the point of these people exposing where it's made? Are they trying
• 16:11
  to cheapen US brands to be like, they're made here, shame? Or is it like it's a combination of,
• 16:19
  of both, combination of, they've got all the stock that's ready to go, that now these brands,
• 16:25
  like Lou Lim probably like, actually, we don't, we don't want that anymore and they're left with
• 16:28
  all the stock. So they're going, okay, cool, we, you know, we can sell this direct through TikTok
• 16:35
  and still get some money for it because we've done the, we've done the manufacturing for
• 16:39
  Lou Lim and there doesn't want it anymore because it's too expensive to, to buy or, and I'm sorry.
• 16:44
  So there's people that are selling, like almost dead stock of these brands on TikTok for pennies.
• 16:52
  But absolute pennies, yeah. And then there's, there's other cases where they are exposing,
• 16:59
  you know, you thought your ermie's bag was actually made in France or Europe.
• 17:05
  It's actually been made in China and you can buy it from us. Like it's, it's quite interesting,
• 17:11
  you know, with algorithm, it's like once you start watching a few, you start getting fed all
• 17:14
  the stuff, like it's quite interesting to watch, play out, yeah. And there's shoes and there's sunglasses
• 17:20
  and there's so much stuff. It's quite, sorry, I don't get it. Why is there all the spare stocks that's
• 17:25
  now not being sold? Because Lou Lim is like, cool, we have to pay 150% more to get that into the US,
• 17:31
  no thanks. But what are they going to sell if they can't get their product there? Well, that's,
• 17:36
  yeah, it's like they'll increase manufacturing in other regions where the tariff is lower,
• 17:39
  which could be Europe, it could be other Asian countries, but the bulk of their manufacturing
• 17:46
  is made in China. I don't know, it's just interesting to see, you know, you can
• 17:51
  set these tariffs on, but these factories have never had that direct to consumer access.
• 17:58
  And now they're like, you know what, if you, we actually don't need you, we can sell products.
• 18:02
  And yes, it might have to be unbranded in the long run, but, you know, look, we've,
• 18:06
  we've been the factory that's made Lou Lim in tights for years and years and years.
• 18:10
  You can buy exactly the same type of stuff. So it just depends if you want to keep on the brand.
• 18:13
  Oh, yeah. What about Hermes? Hermes, Hermes. Hermes. Hermes.
• 18:18
  So can you get really expensive bags and stuff for like $20? Yeah. That's like a reputable
• 18:25
  brand image. 100%. You can't come back from that. If someone's bought that for $20,
• 18:31
  do you ask because all this is happening? I mean, I can't imagine people are going to do 2000.
• 18:37
  Well, it was like the work in, you know, the Walmart Birkin bag. That looks exactly like it's a
• 18:43
  copy. This is the actual product, but it devalued the brand and it's interesting. Well,
• 18:50
  people were worried like, okay, if I'm walking down the street and I've got a $40,000 Birkin
• 18:54
  and it signed next to me with a $100 Birkin, you know, you're like, oh, I don't really want to
• 19:00
  own that bag anymore or I don't want to. I don't know. It's going to be interesting to see
• 19:03
  how this plays out because the luxury brands are already, you know, seriously suffering because
• 19:10
  if we expect global growth to be lower, if we expect the US to go into recession, you know,
• 19:15
  like all these factors play in two people not buying luxury goods. Like LVMH is down nearly 25
• 19:24
  percent this year, but you know, that doesn't know LVMH is like Louis Vuitton. Louis Vuitton,
• 19:29
  Louis Hennessey, yeah, and it's got it owns tons and tons of brands from, you know,
• 19:34
  Christenday or to Don Perry on to Verveclyco, to Verveclyco, to Tiffany and Coat, you know,
• 19:45
  it owns a ton and tons of brands, one of the biggest and most diverse luxury brands or luxury
• 19:51
  companies. And it tried to buy Ermias 15 years ago and Ermias was like, oh my god, no, absolutely not
• 19:59
  and kind of protected itself really strongly. And then now 15 years later, because LVMH has been
• 20:08
  suffering so much over the last, you know, kind of four months and a bit longer, Ermias is now
• 20:14
  bigger than LVMH. So what a big effuute. I thought you were going to say now Ermias is crawling
• 20:22
  back to LVMH being like, please buy us. Wow. And if Ermias wanted to, it could turn around and buy
• 20:29
  LVMH. Oh my god. That's going to happen, but I'm just saying when a company is suffering like LVMH's,
• 20:37
  it does lead to sharks circling going, you know, if this keeps falling, it's going to get quite
• 20:44
  attractive in terms of, you know, maybe we're going to take over your company. So this is why it's
• 20:49
  always an incentive for companies to keep doing well and keep growing. So what I'm kind of getting
• 20:55
  to is that with a lot of companies in the market right now, not doing very well in terms of their
• 20:59
  share price, there could be some opportunistic companies coming in and making bids or taking over
• 21:08
  these companies that we saw last week, Prada bought the Sarkji for 1.4 billion. I mean, it could have
• 21:15
  probably waited a few more weeks and got it for a cheaper price with the share prices falling
• 21:21
  around the world. But the other thing that's kind of coming out of these tariffs is the strength
• 21:26
  that Europe is seeing in terms of, you know, being being a winner on all of this. The euro, so
• 21:33
  that's currency, is the strongest it's been in three years. And if you think of a currency,
• 21:41
  oh my god, this means if we're earning pounds that will be, oh no, because we're not attached
• 21:45
  to Europe anymore, devastating. Yeah, a currency is a reflection of a country's strength, I guess,
• 21:53
  and like a share price goes up when a company's doing well, currency goes up when a country is
• 22:00
  doing well. So yeah, the fact that it's the strongest in three years is really, really good. And
• 22:05
  it's, I read this line which I thought was quite funny. It's like, there's a feeling that Europe's
• 22:09
  just like a museum, like it is quite old and dodgy and like archaic. And it's like the museum is
• 22:15
  now coming to life. And it's really like sitting up and being like, hey, welcome, which is an
• 22:21
  incredible turnaround considering six literally six months ago. We were talking about hot US AI
• 22:28
  stocks and, you know, the market was doing fantastic. And now we're like, oh, Europe, hello.
• 22:39
  Europe had a glow up. Europe has had a serious glow up. Do you think we could chat in the
• 22:44
  investing club about some potential ideas for investments? We've done it. Oh, okay. Sorry.
• 22:53
  What's that? I don't know. And you what you're going to say? And I was like, yeah, thank you.
• 23:04
  Oh, I'm excited. This is the coolest thing we've been doing. We have an app. Can you believe it?
• 23:11
  I know. Quite cool. If you told me that even three months ago, I feel like as of, I feel like when
• 23:18
  you have an app, you're an actual business. I know. Yeah. We haven't really talked about this much.
• 23:23
  I don't know why, but the investing club, it's an app basically. So you can download it from
• 23:28
  whether you're on Google, yeah, you can watch all of the investing ideas. You can chat in the
• 23:33
  community. You can speak to Vic directly all on the go. And the reason that we went down this
• 23:38
  path is just like, we've had so many students go through our courses and stuff. But when you have
• 23:43
  to be sitting at your laptop, you can't do it on the go. There's kind of, I mean, everyone's busy.
• 23:49
  And we can notify you when things in the stock market happen. Yeah. So it's really, really great.
• 23:55
  We did one this morning. We do a little update, a stock market update in three weeks. So you can
• 24:01
  be on the pulse. Wherever you are going about your daily, daily lives. We got you. Yeah.
• 24:08
  If you want to try, we've got a free trial for seven days. And yeah, jump in and have a look
• 24:12
  around. Comment. Talk to us. Share your ideas. It's a really cool space. And yeah, we've got all of
• 24:18
  it. We'll put a link in the podcast show notes. You can find out more.
• 24:23
  One thing I want to touch on and I don't know if this is going to be like,
• 24:27
  but it's related to bonds. We haven't talked about bonds enough, to be honest,
• 24:32
  no, because they are boring. But now they're in the news and they could, you know, they're part
• 24:38
  of this tip for tat with the US and China. And I'm trying to figure out a way to explain them
• 24:43
  where you don't fall asleep, to be honest. Okay. And so, yeah, you've got my attention.
• 24:47
  I'm already on the back foot with the alcohol, the stressful day. So I'm like, maybe do we leave
• 24:52
  the bonds chat for another time? I can pay attention. So bonds is like fixed interest, right? So
• 24:58
  it's like, yes, you know exactly what return you're going to be getting because you agree
• 25:02
  before you give them your money on this is your return. And this is the time that it's going to
• 25:06
  take. It's all kind of like pre-arranged interest and returns. It's alone. Yeah. So it is alone
• 25:14
  that you are giving a company or a government. And with the expectation, you will get that
• 25:20
  loan back. They pay you interest, just like if you borrow money from a bank for a mortgage or
• 25:25
  a credit card or a friend, anything, it's like, friends charging you interest law, but yes,
• 25:32
  exactly. You are giving someone money and they're borrowing it off you and they're going to give it
• 25:36
  back after a set period of time. So to explain this, it's like, your China, I'm the US, you've
• 25:46
  borrowed money off me. Now you hold $800 billion. Okay, $800 billion. Yeah, you have borrowed
• 25:53
  $800 billion from me. Now, and that's for a set period of time with set interest rates that
• 26:00
  you're going to pay me because you borrowed it off me. Is this a real life example? Yeah,
• 26:05
  this is a real life example. But now we hate each other. Yeah. Oh no. But did they get the
• 26:09
  prenup? Is it all in writing? Well, it isn't writing, but we're talking about $800 billion
• 26:15
  here. This can really move off money. And so just sell tech talk, sell tech talk, get it over
• 26:22
  and done with, not be in debt to the US. Why don't you guys just go out and have some
• 26:27
  polymers, hug it out, and then we can move on with some croquettes just over it. Honestly,
• 26:34
  if there's any high end or like economists of any description that listen to this podcast,
• 26:40
  and we're like, China, US, just go out and get some croquettes and sold it out. But anyway,
• 26:47
  it's kind of I guess the it's been called like the nuclear option that China has is China has
• 26:55
  this $800 billion of US government debt. And everyone's a bit not a bit on edge, but they're like,
• 27:02
  oh, what could they do? God, I would be. I would be bowing down to everything you see. It's
• 27:07
  same. I'd be like, it'd be terrified. I'd be like, oh, you want me to scratch your back? No worries,
• 27:12
  which Nigeria are we scratching? So anyway, there is concern that China could just effectively dump
• 27:18
  all of that debt on what we call the open market, which means it's just, it's going to effectively
• 27:24
  flood, flood the market and push, push bond prices down. I'm sorry, is that and is the reason that
• 27:31
  that is is because bonds are loaning the government money. Yeah. So that's the connection to how
• 27:38
  it went would end up back in the, you know, can you just explain that link one more time? Yeah,
• 27:43
  so you can sell like even though you've borrowed the money off me, you could sell it to Mary
• 27:49
  for 600 billion. Mm hmm. Because and you don't really care because you're like, if you, I hate you
• 27:56
  I, I, I just don't want to hold your money anymore. And you could sell it at a huge discount,
• 28:02
  but the interest rate, because you pay the interest rate, say it's 10% just for arguments sake.
• 28:08
  Can we use an example? So let's say I owe you $10. And I don't want to owe you money anymore. I
• 28:15
  want to give the, I want to someone else to be involved. So I sell it to someone else. Is that
• 28:20
  what it'll be? Yeah. But the, because of the, the, the contract is a, is a set amount that you
• 28:27
  have to pay an interest. So what it's, even though it's, it's a percentage, it's a percentage of
• 28:34
  what is a larger figure. And now that you've sold that and that, that $10 is a lot smaller,
• 28:40
  that percentage goes up. So in order to borrow that money now is way, way higher,
• 28:48
  because you have to pay a higher interest rate. Does that make sense? No, absolutely not. Anyway,
• 28:54
  I think really high level is that you could go, if you, I'm going to dump this $800 billion on the
• 29:02
  open market, which means that someone, anyone else can buy it, anyone else can buy it, but they're
• 29:07
  buying it for a super, super cheap price, which means that an interest rates go up. Therefore,
• 29:13
  it's more expensive for the US to borrow money. So wait, the US, I thought it was China that was
• 29:20
  borrowing money. Yes, but because interest rates are now gone up, because the bond prices,
• 29:25
  the price of the bond has fallen. Oh my god, this, I knew this would be like, this is so confusing.
• 29:31
  I've got it. I've got it. Okay. Say you borrowed $100 and you have to pay $10, $10 in interest
• 29:41
  every, every year to borrow that money. That is, that's 10%. Say you sold that bond, that $100
• 29:50
  bond, $450 to someone else, they still have to pay $10, which is now 20% interest. So instantly,
• 30:03
  interest rates have gone up, because when bond prices fall, interest rates go up. And so therefore,
• 30:11
  if you want to borrow money again, you can have to pay 20% not 10. So it's essentially, I mean,
• 30:18
  the mechanics of it, I'm not going to get into it, but it's essentially that if China dumps this
• 30:26
  $800 billion of debt of the loan that it's taken from the US, we still have to pay, we still have
• 30:38
  to pay the interest on that bond. And because it's going to dump it at a super cheap price,
• 30:44
  the bond price is going to fall and means that the interest rates are going to go up. And it's
• 30:48
  going to be more expensive for the US to borrow money. We're going to do a whole episode on this,
• 30:52
  because I feel like we're to scratch the surface. And it's a different way to invest, and it's
• 30:57
  a different understanding to share. So it does need, you know, we do need to spend a bit of time
• 31:02
  on it. But essentially, if China dumps this $800 billion, effectively sells it, it could effectively
• 31:10
  destabilize financial markets as we know them today. It could seriously make the US dollar four,
• 31:18
  which we just spoke about is bad and really, really slow down the US economy, because interest rates
• 31:24
  will rise, it'll be harder to do business, it'll be harder to be more expensive to borrow money,
• 31:28
  and it just could really, really have a damaging impact on the US economy. Sure. So basically,
• 31:35
  what could happen here is Trump's trying to bring, you know, all production and everything
• 31:40
  into the US to make US thrive. And actually, if China dumps the debt that they owe them,
• 31:46
  it's going to have like a profoundly negative impact on the US economy and the world.
• 31:52
  Yeah, essentially. They've got this little option up there, say they're massed, this massive
• 31:56
  option up there, so you kind of don't want to poke the bear too much, you know. Isn't China the
• 32:02
  one that's at a disadvantage because they're in debt? It's so weird to me that it's the US that's
• 32:08
  at risk, even though China is the one that's in debt. You don't know me, like it's confusing.
• 32:14
  But every country's in debt pretty much. But like the fact that it's in debt to the US,
• 32:18
  I thought that, you know, before when I was joking, being like, tell me where to scratch your back,
• 32:23
  I thought that was because China was so at the mercy of the US because they're so in debt to them.
• 32:28
  But what you're saying is like, they can kind of pull a Joker out and be like,
• 32:34
  okay, well, you think that we're in debt to you, actually shame now we've done this.
• 32:38
  Yeah, I mean, it will have, it definitely will have impacts on China as well.
• 32:44
  And could have a, like you said, a really big global impact, which China will get caught up in.
• 32:49
  So it's got to realize this is not going to, this can't be a card, the hat trick that can pull out
• 32:54
  and have no impact on other countries around the world. So it's, it's kind of, you're cutting off
• 33:01
  your nose despite your face kind of thing. That's saying I've never really got, but yeah,
• 33:08
  it's like, do you lose a finger or lose an arm? You know, you lose the finger.
• 33:13
  Both, so both are shan, both are shan, yeah. And just to finish on something non-terrified related,
• 33:21
  there's a case going on in Australia at the moment where they want to introduce a ban
• 33:26
  for social media companies. There is, there's age limits and they cannot provide their services to
• 33:32
  children under 16. That's amazing. They've, yeah, they've really been pushing for it, but
• 33:38
  there's been an update this week where YouTube is not going to be caught up in this. It's only
• 33:43
  going to be TikTok, Meta and Snap, which is Snapchat. Why is that? And yeah, then those three social
• 33:51
  media companies are outraged. They're like, it's illogical, it's anti-competitive, it's shortsighted,
• 33:57
  but there is a case that the government is saying that YouTube is educational, educational,
• 34:03
  yeah, so it's exempt, but I don't know, it's a step in the right direction and I think,
• 34:10
  you know, I'm hearing a lot of noises in New Zealand as well about similar restrictions
• 34:16
  happening because it is toxic and it is scary what is out there for young people when there are
• 34:25
  might. It's scary what's out there for a 33 year old. Oh, totally. I mean, the poor children get
• 34:31
  them bloody away from it, but I'm actually so, and I really want to figure out a way of like
• 34:37
  blocking myself out of apps for, you know, so that I can only access them for like half an hour
• 34:43
  a day or whatever, because I just think it's so hard to try and like rival with being like,
• 34:49
  you shouldn't be a doctor to your phone. It's like, I'm hello. There's like billions and trillions
• 34:53
  of dollars poured into these to make me a doctor. Like, do you think my willpower is going to be?
• 34:58
  Yeah. Doing better? No. And it's hard to know what to cut out. Like, I get a lot of my news now
• 35:05
  from like TikTok, for example, when I know, don't say that. Sorry. No.
• 35:11
  I mean, I get a lot of this podcast is perhaps solely from what like sees on TikTok. No,
• 35:17
  no, no, no. Okay, sorry. No, I mean like not investment news, not like making news, but more like,
• 35:24
  oh, gosh, did you see such and such died or like, I get that from like Amanda Binds is joining
• 35:29
  like only fans, you know, yeah, yeah, yeah. Which by the way is apparently happening.
• 35:33
  Cool. No, but she's doing it to chat with fans. She's making, she's asking them to pay 50 US
• 35:38
  and then just going to be talking to them. Maybe we should do that. Hello? No one wants to pay
• 35:43
  to talk to you. Anyway, YouTube is exempt from this. Which if I put my investing hat on,
• 35:55
  is good news for Google. Oh, yes, of course, because Google owned YouTube. Yes. And if this takes
• 36:02
  flight and is kind of replicated in lots of other countries, we're going to be more good news
• 36:07
  for Google. Hmm. You did say Google was your your pick for 2025 in our predictions. I did.
• 36:14
  And I think I copied you. Yeah. Yep. And what else did I say? I said the market was going to be
• 36:18
  down about, oh, no, it was going to be up six or six. So you didn't. You said it was going to have
• 36:22
  a shitter. And I was like, I think it's going to go bonkers and be up so much. Yeah, but I see
• 36:28
  that would be like, yeah, like single digits. But anyone that's no idea what we're talking about,
• 36:32
  we basically did like predictions at the start of the year, but we're like, what do we think we're
• 36:35
  going to see? And I was like, it's going to be so good. It's going to be the best year ever.
• 36:40
  But it doesn't matter because we're long-term investors. God, you're right. I'm tired. I knew that
• 36:45
  would happen from one drink. I have one drink and then I want to go to bed and I can't. You need
• 36:50
  a espresso martini. I don't know if that's a great idea. No, not before bed. So funny. It was like,
• 36:57
  I saw a meme. It's like in your Twini's when you're like four espresso martinis deep at like one
• 37:02
  and you're just like having a having a ball. And then in your 30s, it's like, oh,
• 37:06
  I shouldn't have coffee after 2pm. Yeah, but also can you remember how you felt when you had
• 37:14
  four espresso martinis? Like I was read ball bonkers. No, I was such anxious. There was actually a
• 37:22
  point in time where I'm pretty sure I had like a silent panic attack the next day because I was
• 37:27
  so hungover and had so much caffeine. And I remember thinking, I wonder why I feel so
• 37:32
  shipped. Like I don't know, maybe because you'd seven espresso martinis last night.
• 37:37
  God, I would have achieved so much in my life if I aired up all the days that I was hungover
• 37:41
  on the couch and weren't hungover those times, you mean? Yeah, like if I aired up all those days
• 37:46
  and then wasn't hungover. Oh, you're so productive. You don't need to go and make yourself feel
• 37:50
  worse about that. Absolutely not. Okay, well happy Easter. I'm quite happy that we didn't do a full
• 37:55
  Trump episode. That was quite good. Yeah, I took your advice from last week. Thank you.
• 38:00
  I was getting kind of sick of it too. For anyone who hasn't listened, last week we put out a
• 38:05
  podcast with Polly Marcus, which was such a fun lesson. And if you haven't listened, quite good.
• 38:11
  There's one particular partner when she speaks about her investing and an absolute shocker decision
• 38:19
  that she made. And I loved that she shared it. I was like, shit, yeah, Paul. Yeah. So many people
• 38:23
  have had shockers and a term bearers to talk about them. So anyway, it's a good lesson if you
• 38:27
  haven't listened already. Oh, I reckon I've had a shocker with Tesla. But that's what happened.
• 38:33
  Oh, no, I just think I backed the wrong horse since when? Well, but Tesla's going down, down,
• 38:38
  and down, and down and BWD's going up and up and up and up. But did you not do both? No. Yes,
• 38:44
  who did? No, no, no, no, no. I didn't. I didn't. I didn't actually because I couldn't find it anywhere.
• 38:49
  I couldn't find it only on the platforms. I wanted to. Yeah. We're just so struggling to shut up
• 38:55
  here, aren't we? I know. We should just, you know, we can go with a bang. Yeah.
• 39:02
  Thank you so much for listening to the Curve Weekly. Make sure you hit the subscribe button to stay
• 39:06
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• 39:11
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• 39:15
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• 39:20
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• 39:24
  week and see you next Monday. Bye. Bye. See you next Tuesday. Wow. See you next Tuesday. I mean,
• 39:33
  Monday. No, actually though, new episodes out every Tuesday.
• 39:38
  Okay, quickly, the Curve was created to empower and educate you about investing, but we are not
• 39:45
  financial advisors. Our platform exists for educational purposes only and it doesn't provide
• 39:50
  personalized investing advice for your individual needs and should not be relied upon to make
• 39:54
  an investment or financial decision. And always remember to do your own research before making
• 39:59
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• 40:03
  but the final call is always yours. And thanks for being here. You got this. Yeah, we know you've
• 40:08
  got this.