Latest / Pod Save America / Which Democrats Have What It Takes to Win the White House?
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Joining me
- 0:22Speaker 1: today is former senior advisor to President Obama, David Oxelrod.
- 0:25Speaker 1: You all know Axe. Maybe you've heard him on this pod,
- 0:28Speaker 1: listened to either of his shows, Hacks on Tap or
- 0:30Speaker 1: The Axe Files. or you've likely seen him on CNN.
- 0:33Speaker 1: Axe is an all-around expert that can speak to anything
- 0:35Speaker 1: in Democratic politics. I asked Axe to come on the
- 0:37Speaker 1: show because I wanted to talk to someone smart about
- 0:39Speaker 1: the midterms, both what the map looks like for the
- 0:41Speaker 1: Dems after a series of devastating court rulings and what
- 0:43Speaker 1: he thinks of some of the candidates running up and
- 0:44Speaker 1: down the ballot. I also wanted to talk to him
- 0:46Speaker 1: about messaging, namely how some of the party's leading voices
- 0:49Speaker 1: and likely 2028 candidates are talking about the administration and
- 0:52Speaker 1: if their theories of the case are actually any good.
- 0:54Speaker 1: We shared a great and wide-ranging conversation. which we'll get
- 0:57Speaker 1: to in a minute. But before we do, if you're
- 0:58Speaker 1: a Friend of the Pod subscriber, which if you aren't,
- 1:00Speaker 1: you should be, you can now buy tickets for this
- 1:02Speaker 1: year's CrookedCon. There is a special pre-sale just for subscribers.
- 1:06Speaker 1: But if you're not a subscriber because you hate pro-democracy
- 1:08Speaker 1: media and love listening to podcast ads, you can buy
- 1:10Speaker 1: CrookedCon tickets next week, starting on May 19th. Either way,
- 1:14Speaker 1: it'll be a big fun party right after the midterms,
- 1:16Speaker 1: November 5th to 7th in Washington, D.C. Go to CrookedCon.com
- 1:20Speaker 1: for more details, including how to become a Friend of
- 1:21Speaker 1: the Pod subscriber. All right, let's get to the show.
- 1:23Speaker 1: Here's David Axelrod. David Oxelrod, welcome back to Puts of America.
- 1:31Speaker 2: Yeah, it's good to be with you, brother. Always good
- 1:33Speaker 2: to see you.
- 1:35Speaker 1: It's been a long time since I've seen you.
- 1:38Speaker 3: It has.
- 1:38Speaker 1: I assume I'll catch you in Chicago in about a
- 1:39Speaker 1: month at the Obama Library opening.
- 1:40Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to it. I went through there the
- 1:42Speaker 2: other day. Have you been there?
- 1:44Speaker 1: I have not. I talked to Cody Keenan after he went,
- 1:47Speaker 1: and he said it was quite emotional, actually, and pretty amazing.
- 1:49Speaker 2: That's exactly... I went over sort of out of a
- 1:52Speaker 2: sense of obligation. They had wanted me to come see it.
- 1:56Speaker 4: And.
- 1:57Speaker 2: And I found it incredibly emotional. It really was like
- 2:01Speaker 2: reliving the journey. So I'm anxious for you guys to
- 2:06Speaker 2: see it.
- 2:06Speaker 1: Yeah, we're very excited about it. All right. Fortunately, we've
- 2:09Speaker 1: got a lot of things happening between now and then.
- 2:11Speaker 1: We are now less than six months from the midterms.
- 2:13Speaker 1: A few weeks ago, things looked great. Democrats felt like
- 2:17Speaker 1: they were on a glide path to taking the House
- 2:19Speaker 1: by a pretty significant margin. Then, over the last few weeks,
- 2:22Speaker 1: there's been nothing but bad news. Supreme Court got to
- 2:24Speaker 1: the Voting Rights Act. The Republicans are rapidly redrawing the map,
- 2:27Speaker 1: eliminating Democratic districts across the South. Virginia Supreme Court throws
- 2:31Speaker 1: out the new map that would have given Democrats four seats.
- 2:35Speaker 1: As a party, we've returned to our natural state of panic.
- 2:38Speaker 5: Yes.
- 2:40Speaker 1: Where do you think things stand right now in the
- 2:41Speaker 1: race for the House? How worried are you?
- 2:44Speaker 2: Look, Dan, you know the history of this race. There
- 2:48Speaker 2: have been 39 midterm elections since World War II. And
- 2:52Speaker 2: the party that is in the White House has gained
- 2:55Speaker 2: seats in two of those 39 in 1998 and 2002.
- 3:02Speaker 2: And in both those elections with Clinton and Bush, Bush
- 3:05Speaker 2: right after 9-11, they both had approval ratings in the 60s.
- 3:10Speaker 2: These races are, no matter how hard, and you and
- 3:13Speaker 2: I were on the losing end of this, you know,
- 3:16Speaker 2: No matter how hard you try, there's always a referendum
- 3:21Speaker 2: on the president. And very rarely do you win in
- 3:24Speaker 2: that because it's an opportunity for people who express their discontents.
- 3:33Speaker 2: And so, I mean, it is still the case that Democrats,
- 3:39Speaker 2: I think, are probably significant favorites to win the House,
- 3:43Speaker 2: just not the prohibitive favorites they were. And I think
- 3:48Speaker 2: this is a flashing light in this regard. When you're
- 3:52Speaker 2: in a campaign against Donald Trump, it's sort of asymmetric
- 3:57Speaker 2: warfare because he does not adhere to rules and laws
- 4:02Speaker 2: and norms and institutions. I mean, that's a disadvantage for
- 4:06Speaker 2: Democrats who are accustomed to doing that. And so this
- 4:11Speaker 2: is one element of what he has in his in
- 4:15Speaker 2: his asymmetric toolbox, but we still don't know what is
- 4:19Speaker 2: going to happen relative to voter suppression, voter purges, the
- 4:27Speaker 2: Justice Department showing up and seizing voting boxes, and all
- 4:33Speaker 2: kinds of other things that are meant to depress democratic turnout. Now,
- 4:38Speaker 2: I figure if the people of Hungary can do it,
- 4:40Speaker 2: the people of the U.S. should be able to also,
- 4:43Speaker 2: but because obviously Orban threw that many obstacles and more up.
- 4:48Speaker 2: But I don't think anybody should take anything for granted.
- 4:52Speaker 2: This is going to be a bumpy ride from start
- 4:54Speaker 2: to finish.
- 4:56Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 4:56Speaker 1: I mean, when you just look at the numbers, right,
- 4:58Speaker 1: Nate Cohn estimates Democrats need to win the popular vote
- 5:01Speaker 1: by 3.9% to take the House with this map. That
- 5:04Speaker 1: even presumes Republicans definitely getting that seat in South Carolina
- 5:07Speaker 1: and maybe getting two and losing it where they're only
- 5:09Speaker 1: going to get one. And we're on track for that.
- 5:12Speaker 1: It's just What that margin is, is really hard for,
- 5:18Speaker 1: it's just not what should be given Trump's approval numbers
- 5:20Speaker 1: given the economy. And then that, we may still get, look,
- 5:23Speaker 1: you win the House by one seat. Hakeem Jeffries is
- 5:25Speaker 1: still Speaker. He's still in charge of every bill that passes.
- 5:28Speaker 1: But it's, can you keep the House in a less
- 5:31Speaker 1: favorable political environment two years from now, four years from now?
- 5:34Speaker 2: And that's where the- No, I think that that's a
- 5:37Speaker 2: valid concern because I don't think the full effect of
- 5:40Speaker 2: the Voting Rights Act kind of rescission by the Supreme
- 5:43Speaker 2: Court is going to be felt in this election, and
- 5:46Speaker 2: the Republicans are not going to have as much time
- 5:48Speaker 2: to organize around it. And a presidential election, you know,
- 5:53Speaker 2: used to be that a presidential election favored Democrats because
- 5:58Speaker 2: the infrequent voters tended to be Democrats. Now, you know,
- 6:03Speaker 2: the midterm elections and special elections favor Democrats because the
- 6:07Speaker 2: Democratic Party for better and worse, has become a party
- 6:11Speaker 2: of sort of metropolitan professional, you know, white collar people,
- 6:17Speaker 2: college educated folks who tend to vote regularly. This used
- 6:21Speaker 2: to be a Republican advantage. So I think, you know,
- 6:24Speaker 2: the next elections could be more challenging if the margin
- 6:28Speaker 2: is small. But as to November, you know, Trump's numbers
- 6:33Speaker 2: are abysmal and they're getting worse and His numbers on
- 6:36Speaker 2: the economy, which was the calling card that got him
- 6:40Speaker 2: elected in many ways, are atrocious. You know, 30 percent
- 6:45Speaker 2: in the last CNN poll among independents, 23 percent because
- 6:48Speaker 2: it's his base that's keeping him buoyed. And those independent
- 6:52Speaker 2: voters are going to be pretty important in these swing
- 6:54Speaker 2: states and districts. So, you know, this is why I
- 6:57Speaker 2: think he will reach into this bag of tricks. And
- 7:01Speaker 2: on top of that, he's got he'll probably have you know,
- 7:03Speaker 2: he has whether he spends it or not, we'll see.
- 7:06Speaker 2: But he'll probably have $ 600 million. You know, he had
- 7:10Speaker 2: $ 300 million in his super PAC at the beginning of
- 7:13Speaker 2: the year. And let me tell you, when you get,
- 7:16Speaker 2: you know, millions and millions of dollars in donations from
- 7:19Speaker 2: the families of people you pardon, in advance of the pardon,
- 7:25Speaker 2: that's a very efficient way of fundraising. Half the money
- 7:29Speaker 2: at least comes from people who have, you know, government
- 7:33Speaker 2: interests and You know, like I said, there's nothing that
- 7:37Speaker 2: the words that you will never hear flowing from this
- 7:41Speaker 2: president's mouth is, well, we could do it, but it
- 7:43Speaker 2: would be wrong. That's just not going to happen.
- 7:46Speaker 1: That is a thing you can hear from Democrats mouths.
- 7:48Speaker 1: And like going forward past this election, you know, you
- 7:52Speaker 1: talk about the asymmetric warfare and, you know, Hakeem Jefferson's
- 7:54Speaker 1: out there since decision saying we have to have a
- 7:55Speaker 1: total warfare approach. Virginia Democrats, at least for a minute,
- 7:59Speaker 1: looked relatively seriously at the idea of changing the age
- 8:02Speaker 1: limit on their justices to retire all of them and
- 8:04Speaker 1: replace them. Turned out to be whatever other problems there
- 8:07Speaker 1: were with that plan, it just turned out to be
- 8:08Speaker 1: logistically impossible to fire the justices, get new justices, draw
- 8:12Speaker 1: new maps, and get them approved at time for the primaries.
- 8:14Speaker 1: But since this decision, there's been talk about expanding the playbook.
- 8:19Speaker 1: Kamala Harris was doing a Zoom call with a political
- 8:22Speaker 1: group where she talked about court reform, multi-member districts, all
- 8:27Speaker 1: these things. What do you think about how Democrats have
- 8:30Speaker 1: to change our approach over the medium term and the
- 8:32Speaker 1: long term here to maybe narrow that asymmetric gap?
- 8:35Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, first of all, look, I think that you
- 8:38Speaker 2: heard for the longest time, and it was reflected in polling,
- 8:44Speaker 2: discontent with the leadership and both Jeffries and Schumer because
- 8:50Speaker 2: of a perceived passivity. I think Hakim has... changed his
- 8:55Speaker 2: tone markedly lately, in part because he's trying to hold
- 8:58Speaker 2: his troops together here. I mean, I'm mixed on this
- 9:05Speaker 2: stand because I understand the stakes and I understand the
- 9:11Speaker 2: idea that if the other side is playing tackle, you
- 9:14Speaker 2: can't play touch. And on the other hand, You know,
- 9:19Speaker 2: this is the lot of Democrats. If you're the party
- 9:22Speaker 2: who actually believes in rules and laws and norms and institutions,
- 9:26Speaker 2: it's very hard to reconstruct them once they're shredded. And
- 9:30Speaker 2: so I'm struggling with this as to how far we
- 9:33Speaker 2: should go. And the best thing we can do is,
- 9:40Speaker 2: you know, embrace the right message, which is going to
- 9:43Speaker 2: be more important and even more important in 28 than 26.
- 9:45Speaker 2: Because So there's so much that should be pushing our
- 9:51Speaker 2: way if we become the party that we should be,
- 9:54Speaker 2: which is to respond to the fundamental concerns that people
- 9:57Speaker 2: have been expressing again and again and again. that Trump
- 10:00Speaker 2: has ignored. And so, you know, I don't want the,
- 10:05Speaker 2: I don't want this next several years to be defined
- 10:08Speaker 2: by a contest, you know, between who can be more
- 10:13Speaker 2: clever in sort of gaming the system. I don't think
- 10:17Speaker 2: we have to, if we are the party that honestly
- 10:21Speaker 2: is responding to a system that is in many ways
- 10:25Speaker 2: corrupt and rigged against people. And we're offering a real
- 10:29Speaker 2: vision for the future that holds out some promise for
- 10:34Speaker 2: real bold and genuine reform.
- 10:36Speaker 1: Yeah, I go back and forth on this too. I
- 10:37Speaker 1: generally believe that it is in the country's interest to
- 10:40Speaker 1: find ways to make our institutions more democratic. And when
- 10:42Speaker 1: they are rigged for one party or the other, that
- 10:46Speaker 1: is bad because it suppresses the popular will. That's why
- 10:49Speaker 1: I'm very open to term limits for Supreme Court justice,
- 10:51Speaker 1: things like that. The one thing I'm very confident that
- 10:53Speaker 1: we just have to do and it's not an option
- 10:55Speaker 1: is redistrict to maximum advantage in 28 in the states
- 10:59Speaker 1: where we can do that. Just because you just can't,
- 11:02Speaker 1: this is a little bit like we hate dark money,
- 11:05Speaker 1: but the other side is taking all the dark money.
- 11:06Speaker 1: So we can't unilaterally disarm. I think we cannot unilaterally
- 11:09Speaker 1: disarm here. So I think whether it's Oregon, Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Pennsylvania,
- 11:14Speaker 1: these states where we have control, we have to do
- 11:16Speaker 1: it because they're just the number of states that Trump
- 11:18Speaker 1: was one three times. just hold a lot more seats
- 11:21Speaker 1: in the number of states that Democrats have won three times.
- 11:23Speaker 1: So we kind of have to do that.
- 11:24Speaker 2: No, I don't disagree. I don't disagree with that.
- 11:28Speaker 1: I hate it, but.
- 11:29Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's just, you know, like changing the age
- 11:36Speaker 2: limit on the Virginia Supreme Court. I don't know about that.
- 11:40Speaker 2: I don't think that's where we want to be. So,
- 11:44Speaker 2: you know, I just don't want, well, Trump would do
- 11:47Speaker 2: it to be, always be the yardstick by which we
- 11:51Speaker 2: measure ourselves. One of the geniuses of Trump. And let's
- 11:54Speaker 2: be clear. He is, he is, he does have certain genius.
- 11:58Speaker 2: I mean, uh, kind of an idiot savant in many ways,
- 12:02Speaker 2: but he, but one of them is that, um, he,
- 12:06Speaker 2: he exposes hypocrisy very well. I mean, you know, when
- 12:10Speaker 2: you see the law firms that folded and the, and the, uh, uh,
- 12:14Speaker 2: universities that folded and, um, and all the politicians who
- 12:20Speaker 2: have folded on principles that they heretofore had held close,
- 12:26Speaker 2: you know, his point, this is what Donald Trump really believes.
- 12:30Speaker 2: He believes the world is the hunger games where the
- 12:33Speaker 2: strong take what they want and the weak fall away
- 12:35Speaker 2: and everybody has a price and rules and laws and
- 12:38Speaker 2: norms and institutions are for suckers. That's what he believes.
- 12:42Speaker 2: And every time someone submits to that, because they think
- 12:49Speaker 2: they're going to somehow win his favor, they help prove
- 12:55Speaker 2: his point. But that's separate from this issue of redistricting.
- 12:59Speaker 2: But he does bait you into these fights so that
- 13:01Speaker 2: he can say, well, they're no better than I am.
- 13:03Speaker 1: Yeah. If everyone's corrupt, you might as well take me.
- 13:06Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. Yeah.
- 13:08Speaker 1: Let's move to the Senate here, where, John, despite discussions
- 13:12Speaker 1: of possibly making Venezuela a state, Trump has been unable
- 13:14Speaker 1: so far to rig the map in his favor, although
- 13:17Speaker 1: he has some advantages of inherent. In some of the
- 13:21Speaker 1: states that Democrats need to win or have to win,
- 13:23Speaker 1: like Iowa and Michigan, we're in the midst of some
- 13:25Speaker 1: pretty divisive primaries, which are, they're exposing all kinds of
- 13:30Speaker 1: divides in the party. They're being treated as proxy battles
- 13:33Speaker 1: for the future of the party. How much do you
- 13:36Speaker 1: worry about this sort of Democratic division? Do you think
- 13:39Speaker 1: it's generally healthy for the party to have these fights now?
- 13:42Speaker 2: It's really hard to avoid them. You even though sometimes
- 13:48Speaker 2: those in Washington would like to have that. At some point,
- 13:52Speaker 2: you know, you do hope that people will evaluate their
- 13:57Speaker 2: own chances to win a primary and, you know, perhaps
- 14:03Speaker 2: influence the outcome of a primary, but with no chance
- 14:06Speaker 2: to win if people get to that point. But, you know,
- 14:13Speaker 2: you would like to field the best candidates in the
- 14:15Speaker 2: general election. And part of the way you find out
- 14:18Speaker 2: who the best candidate is, is to see what they
- 14:21Speaker 2: do out there. I think in Iowa, you know, I
- 14:24Speaker 2: think Turek is probably the strongest candidate in the general election.
- 14:28Speaker 2: And I think he'll, and I think he is showing
- 14:30Speaker 2: himself to be that and will probably be the nominee.
- 14:35Speaker 2: You know, Michigan's a more complicated case. It's a three-way race.
- 14:41Speaker 2: Just in terms of, skills as a political athlete, Abdul
- 14:47Speaker 2: El-Saeed is probably the most gifted athlete of the three. Whether,
- 14:54Speaker 2: you know, there's concerns about whether he, you know, in
- 15:00Speaker 2: terms of his positioning, is the best candidate for the
- 15:03Speaker 2: general election. And we'll have to see. But I do
- 15:08Speaker 2: know this, if Democrats are going to take over it's
- 15:12Speaker 2: almost impossible to believe that Democrats would take the Senate
- 15:16Speaker 2: without Michigan, without holding.
- 15:18Speaker 6: Absolutely.
- 15:19Speaker 2: So that's a, that's, that's the reason for people's concern.
- 15:22Speaker 2: And it's a, it's a legitimate concern.
- 15:25Speaker 1: This is a perfect opportunity for me to point out
- 15:27Speaker 1: that Potsdam America is hosting a Michigan primary debate on
- 15:30Speaker 1: next Sunday's episode, where Alex Wagner is going to host
- 15:32Speaker 1: a conversation with the three Democrats in the race, Abdul El-Sayed,
- 15:35Speaker 1: Mallory McMorrow, and Haley Stevens. Very excited about, very excited
- 15:38Speaker 1: about this one.
- 15:39Speaker 2: Yeah. I didn't even know that. And I, I set
- 15:42Speaker 2: you up nicely there.
- 15:43Speaker 1: I know, I know. Why ask the question? For the
- 15:45Speaker 1: hope that I would get to the point where I.
- 15:46Speaker 5: Could say that.
- 15:46Speaker 2: Well, you're pitching, I'm catching, brother.
- 15:48Speaker 1: That's right.
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- 18:22Speaker 1: What about, what did you make of what happened in Maine?
- 18:24Speaker 1: Because that seems to be sort of indicative of a
- 18:28Speaker 1: shift in the party, a shift in what people are
- 18:32Speaker 1: looking for, maybe a sense that the Senate leadership or
- 18:34Speaker 1: the establishment is, at least in that race, was not
- 18:37Speaker 1: in touch with what the voters wanted?
- 18:38Speaker 2: There are a lot of factors here. One is that
- 18:41Speaker 2: I think we're in an anti-establishment moment, and that's true
- 18:43Speaker 2: in both parties. I think there is a real jaundice
- 18:48Speaker 2: about the status quo. I mentioned earlier, 70% of people
- 18:51Speaker 2: in polling say, The system is corrupt and rigged against them.
- 18:58Speaker 2: I think there is a sense that Washington, you know,
- 19:01Speaker 2: when you'll remember back in the day, Dan, when Barack
- 19:05Speaker 2: Obama ran, one of the reasons he won was because
- 19:10Speaker 2: his campaign was a full out critique of Washington generally,
- 19:16Speaker 2: not just the Republicans, but Democrats as well. And the
- 19:20Speaker 2: sort of red, red, blue, who's up, who's down campaign.
- 19:24Speaker 2: kind of struggle for power that had nothing to do
- 19:26Speaker 2: with people's lives, lives or principal concerns. I think we're
- 19:29Speaker 2: back there again. And so establishment candidates are at a disadvantage.
- 19:36Speaker 2: And Janet Mills is a perfectly good person and has
- 19:39Speaker 2: served honorably, was very much the establishment candidate. And she
- 19:46Speaker 2: had the stamp of Senator Schumer on her to certify
- 19:50Speaker 2: that she was the establishment candidate. And she would have
- 19:55Speaker 2: been 79 years old when she got sworn in. So
- 19:58Speaker 2: part of the other discontent people feel after two octogenarian
- 20:02Speaker 2: presidents is with, you know, the gerontocracy in Washington, which
- 20:08Speaker 2: also speaks to establishment politics. People don't feel like the
- 20:14Speaker 2: folks in Washington are in touch with their lives or
- 20:17Speaker 2: focused on their lives. And I think Trump has exacerbated
- 20:20Speaker 2: it because he ran contending that he was. And then,
- 20:24Speaker 2: you know, and he now we're into, you know, ballrooms
- 20:27Speaker 2: and monuments and, you know, graft on a scale we've
- 20:31Speaker 2: never seen before. This is one place where he says
- 20:34Speaker 2: nobody's ever seen anything like this before. He's right about this.
- 20:38Speaker 2: Nobody's ever seen corruption at this scale before. And so
- 20:42Speaker 2: people feel betrayed, you know, those who voted for him
- 20:47Speaker 2: or who had some hope for him. And all of this,
- 20:51Speaker 2: I think, makes a candidate like Plattner in Maine, you know,
- 20:58Speaker 2: appealing because he's a grassroots guy. He seems to be
- 21:01Speaker 2: speaking the language and living the life of people who
- 21:04Speaker 2: feel unrepresented. And I mean, but it was stunning the
- 21:11Speaker 2: degree to which he was able to take that, you know,
- 21:17Speaker 2: by storm. I mean, just literally blow the incumbent governor
- 21:23Speaker 2: out of the race. You know, I actually wonder a
- 21:28Speaker 2: little bit if he would have been better served by
- 21:29Speaker 2: her hanging around for a while.
- 21:31Speaker 1: I 100 percent agree with that. You know, there was
- 21:33Speaker 1: no need to start for it. I'm not surprised Plattner won.
- 21:37Speaker 1: I was very frustrated at the DSCC and Schumer for
- 21:41Speaker 1: endorsing Mills to begin with for all the reasons you said,
- 21:43Speaker 1: just the idea that we were just going to decide
- 21:46Speaker 1: from on high in Washington that our best chance against
- 21:49Speaker 1: Susan Collins was a 79-year-old establishment politician. And I say
- 21:53Speaker 1: that as someone who likes Janet Mills and interviewed her
- 21:54Speaker 1: on the show, which is no Joe Biden.
- 21:56Speaker 2: No, she's not.
- 21:57Speaker 1: But it's just, it's the model everyone rejected last time.
- 22:01Speaker 1: And Plattner turned out to be You know, I certainly
- 22:03Speaker 1: thought he would definitely win prior to all the online
- 22:05Speaker 1: posts and then thought he, you know, he navigated that
- 22:08Speaker 1: well enough to survive and then knock her out of
- 22:09Speaker 1: the water. But he would have been much better off
- 22:12Speaker 1: if this had gone to the end. He had a
- 22:13Speaker 1: chance to beat her. You delay the general election by
- 22:16Speaker 1: another month. Instead, now he's already got negatives against him from,
- 22:20Speaker 1: you know, pros to cons.
- 22:22Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't blame her, though. She ran out of money.
- 22:24Speaker 2: And I'm not sure that she was that eager to
- 22:27Speaker 2: hang around just to let him claim the trophy, you know.
- 22:32Speaker 2: So the thing, one other thing I think this underscores,
- 22:36Speaker 2: and you know this from your own career, don't let
- 22:41Speaker 2: yourself get talked into running for an office you don't
- 22:43Speaker 2: want to run for. Because it's never going to end well.
- 22:48Speaker 2: You're not going to be an effective candidate. You know,
- 22:51Speaker 2: I mean, Plattner, by the time she dropped out, he
- 22:53Speaker 2: had done, I think, more than 50 town hall meetings
- 22:57Speaker 2: in the state. She had done, I think, zero. uh,
- 23:01Speaker 2: you know, and if I've, you guys have a huge listenership. So, um,
- 23:06Speaker 2: if I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will tell me.
- 23:09Speaker 1: It's a number closer to zero than 50. I'll tell
- 23:10Speaker 1: you that.
- 23:11Speaker 2: Yes. Well, there's no doubt about it.
- 23:13Speaker 3: Yes.
- 23:14Speaker 2: And, uh, uh, you know, um, you, you, you know,
- 23:19Speaker 2: he's hungry for this and, and, uh, and he's eager
- 23:22Speaker 2: for it and he's young and he's going after it. And, um, so, uh,
- 23:28Speaker 2: Getting drafted against your will is a bad way to
- 23:32Speaker 2: enter a race. Don't back into a race.
- 23:34Speaker 1: Another race the Democrats are very excited about and very
- 23:36Speaker 1: interested in is Texas. Our old boss made his first
- 23:39Speaker 1: campaign appearance of the cycle, getting some tacos with James
- 23:42Speaker 1: Tallarico and Gina Hinojosa, who's running for governor. Trump weighed
- 23:46Speaker 1: in on the race on his way back from China
- 23:49Speaker 1: on Air Force One. Let's take a listen to what
- 23:50Speaker 1: he had to say.
- 23:50Speaker 3: The Democrats have a weird, a weird cat today. Six genders.
- 23:57Speaker 3: A real hit on Jesus. I mean, this guy, this
- 24:02Speaker 3: man with his mask from relatively recently. He's a vegan.
- 24:07Speaker 3: He's a vegan. All of a sudden, he's not a vegan.
- 24:09Speaker 3: He was a vegan. Now, all of a sudden, he's not.
- 24:11Speaker 3: Texas doesn't like vegans. I do believe either one of
- 24:16Speaker 3: them will easily win the race. I think that the
- 24:19Speaker 3: candidate the Democrats have in Texas is a very flawed candidate.
- 24:23Speaker 9: Very weak.
- 24:24Speaker 3: I think he's a pathetic candidate, especially for Texas.
- 24:29Speaker 2: You know that Shakespeare thing about thou doth protest too much? But,
- 24:34Speaker 2: you know, what's interesting about the dynamic in the Republican
- 24:36Speaker 2: primary is that the folks who want John Cornyn, they'll
- 24:44Speaker 2: say privately that they think Tallarico's too left for Texas.
- 24:49Speaker 2: They've got plenty of stuff. They could take him out. Uh,
- 24:53Speaker 2: but they're not saying anything because right now what they're
- 24:55Speaker 2: saying is Tallarico can win unless we knock Paxton out
- 24:59Speaker 2: of Paxton out of the race. If Paxton wins, Tallarico
- 25:03Speaker 2: can win. Once this primary is over, they're going to
- 25:05Speaker 2: open up on him and they're going to, along the
- 25:08Speaker 2: contours of what Trump is saying. I'm sure he was briefed.
- 25:11Speaker 2: A bunch of his guys are working on the Cornyn campaign. Um,
- 25:16Speaker 2: but interestingly, he hasn't endorsed, uh, Cornyn, um, I trust
- 25:21Speaker 2: that when Tallarico went out for tacos that he had
- 25:27Speaker 2: beef or chicken.
- 25:30Speaker 1: She's not a vegan, as Trump pronounced it.
- 25:32Speaker 2: A vegan, yes.
- 25:32Speaker 1: Not a vegan taco.
- 25:33Speaker 2: Not a vegan. Did he say– did I hear that right,
- 25:36Speaker 2: that he's bad on Jesus or something? What did he
- 25:40Speaker 2: say there?
- 25:41Speaker 1: He said he had a hit on Jesus, which references,
- 25:44Speaker 1: I think, I'm guessing here, which shows I'm way too online,
- 25:47Speaker 1: the– Great question. I think it was at the same
- 25:52Speaker 1: time he said the six genders thing. I don't really know.
- 25:54Speaker 1: But there have been some clips from a speech he
- 25:57Speaker 1: gave in 2020, I imagine, or right after that, that
- 26:00Speaker 1: have been going around. I think Trump has obviously seen
- 26:02Speaker 1: those and he is doing it. But I'm not sure
- 26:05Speaker 1: the idea that James Federico's anti-Jesus is going to sell.
- 26:08Speaker 2: No, I'm sure that he would love to have that
- 26:11Speaker 2: conversation directly with the president. You can't violate... many of
- 26:18Speaker 2: the major 10 commandments, uh, and then start going after
- 26:22Speaker 2: someone else, uh, over their Christianity. You know, I mean, um,
- 26:28Speaker 2: I mean, Tallarico is clearly, uh, very, uh, you know,
- 26:33Speaker 2: serious about his faith. And that's one of the reasons
- 26:35Speaker 2: he is where he is, uh, because that's translated really well.
- 26:39Speaker 2: And he, you know, he, he has, um, um, he
- 26:43Speaker 2: has preached, uh, the gospel of the brotherhood of man and,
- 26:47Speaker 2: people who are so tired of all this conflict are
- 26:51Speaker 2: responding to him. So we'll see what happens. Look, I
- 26:54Speaker 2: think Texas is hard. You and I have gone through
- 26:58Speaker 2: campaigns together where we held out hope for states like
- 27:01Speaker 2: Missouri at one point, and it always turned out to
- 27:03Speaker 2: be fool's gold. And the question is, is that the
- 27:06Speaker 2: case here? One of the wild cards in Texas is
- 27:09Speaker 2: that Trump won a solid victory there, but it was
- 27:13Speaker 2: with a lot of Hispanic votes, particularly in South Texas.
- 27:19Speaker 2: The two biggest losses in terms of support for Trump
- 27:25Speaker 2: have been among Hispanics and young people. You know, Hispanic voters,
- 27:29Speaker 2: I think they're very sensitive to economic issues. They're a
- 27:33Speaker 2: working class constituency in the main. And I think in
- 27:39Speaker 2: South Texas, I think they were eager for border control.
- 27:43Speaker 2: They weren't eager to be racially profiled. And I think
- 27:48Speaker 2: because of all the stuff that ICE has done, combined
- 27:51Speaker 2: with the economic stuff, he has completely dealt away the
- 27:55Speaker 2: advantages that he gained among Hispanic voters. That puts Texas
- 28:00Speaker 2: more in play. It also means that they're probably not
- 28:04Speaker 2: going to capture all the seats they thought they were
- 28:06Speaker 2: going to capture when they gerrymandered the state.
- 28:09Speaker 1: Yeah, Texas is interesting. I think Tallarico is a uniquely
- 28:12Speaker 1: talented candidate.
- 28:13Speaker 2: Yeah, he's great.
- 28:14Speaker 1: He's very good. He is, I think, if anyone can
- 28:17Speaker 1: do it, it's James Tallarico in this year, particularly against Paxton.
- 28:23Speaker 1: The Latino numbers you point out are very notable. Pew
- 28:26Speaker 1: has a poll out today which shows that Trump's approval
- 28:28Speaker 1: rating among Latino Trump voters is down 30 points since
- 28:32Speaker 1: Election Day 2024. That's a big chunk of voters. We
- 28:35Speaker 1: saw this in the primary, right? It's a primary, but
- 28:41Speaker 1: Tallarico got more primary votes than Kamala Harris got votes in,
- 28:47Speaker 1: you know, sometimes by a magnitude of two or three
- 28:49Speaker 1: in some of these Rio Grande Valley counties. She got
- 28:51Speaker 1: two or three times the number of votes Kamala Harris
- 28:52Speaker 1: got on election day in 2024. So there's obviously some persuasion.
- 28:56Speaker 1: This is not just turnout. There's some persuasion happening here
- 28:58Speaker 1: because a lot of these people, these Latinos who voted
- 29:00Speaker 1: for Trump were registered Democrats. So it's interesting.
- 29:05Speaker 2: No, I was going to say, just on the Hispanic issue,
- 29:08Speaker 2: I think one of the reasons Trump is harping on
- 29:13Speaker 2: him and Christ is that I think it's very advantageous
- 29:19Speaker 2: for Tallarico to be able to go into churches across Texas,
- 29:24Speaker 2: including Hispanic churches, and as fluent as he is in scripture.
- 29:30Speaker 2: And so I think Trump is trying to chip away
- 29:35Speaker 2: chip away at that. What were you going to say?
- 29:37Speaker 1: I was going to ask you about the decision to
- 29:39Speaker 1: have Obama come to Texas for him. Like, it is
- 29:42Speaker 1: a race where he's got to win. You know, Trump
- 29:44Speaker 1: won Texas by 13, I think. He's got to get
- 29:46Speaker 1: a bunch of people who pulled the lever for Trump
- 29:48Speaker 1: to vote for him. Do you think bringing in Obama
- 29:50Speaker 1: was a good move?
- 29:52Speaker 2: You know, I haven't seen his numbers in Texas, but
- 29:55Speaker 2: my guess is that looking at his numbers nationally, they're
- 29:58Speaker 2: not They're not bad. And there is a, you know,
- 30:04Speaker 2: Obama's not campaigning that much for candidates at this juncture.
- 30:09Speaker 2: I'm sure he will. But there is a stature thing.
- 30:12Speaker 2: It kind of elevates Tallarico in the race. And he
- 30:16Speaker 2: may just want to, you know, because of the whole
- 30:20Speaker 2: vegan thing, as you said, Trump said, maybe he just
- 30:23Speaker 2: wanted a guy who really appreciated a good beef taco.
- 30:27Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, I think also, I imagine, I'd have
- 30:29Speaker 1: to look at it, I imagine that Obama's numbers with
- 30:32Speaker 1: Latino voters, even Latino voters who voted for Trump, are
- 30:35Speaker 1: quite good. And so with, like, Tallarico's smart. His campaign's
- 30:39Speaker 1: being run by smart people. They're not just doing this
- 30:41Speaker 1: because it's good for TikTok views. Like, they obviously have
- 30:44Speaker 1: looked at their data that suggests that with their target voters,
- 30:46Speaker 1: Obama is a plus. And the other, it's not like
- 30:50Speaker 1: there are a bunch of Republicans who are going to
- 30:51Speaker 1: stay home because they're mad at Trump and all of
- 30:53Speaker 1: a sudden Barack Obama shows up for tacos one day
- 30:55Speaker 1: in May. Like, okay, we're turning out.
- 30:57Speaker 2: One last thing on this. I mean, one of the
- 30:59Speaker 2: reasons Trump's going after Tallarico is because it seems pretty
- 31:02Speaker 2: clear that he's decided to stay out of this race.
- 31:06Speaker 2: There was a presumption that he was going to endorse
- 31:08Speaker 2: John Cornyn as the most likely candidate to win. He's
- 31:12Speaker 2: now been convinced that either of them can win. But
- 31:18Speaker 2: the Paxton question is really an open one because he's
- 31:20Speaker 2: a guy who is absolutely freighted with scandal. and while
- 31:26Speaker 2: he's very popular with the Republican base, he could be
- 31:29Speaker 2: very vulnerable with some traditional Republican voters in the suburbs
- 31:33Speaker 2: around the big cities there. I don't think Obama's going
- 31:36Speaker 2: to play badly with those voters. I don't think it's
- 31:39Speaker 2: going to hurt Tallarico to have him there with those voters.
- 31:44Speaker 2: So we'll see. But I will say, I mean, because
- 31:49Speaker 2: of the fool's gold PTSD I have, You know, I'm looking,
- 31:54Speaker 2: you know, I look at Iowa, for example, and I'm wondering,
- 31:58Speaker 2: is Iowa ultimately going to be a better shot than Texas?
- 32:02Speaker 2: Is Alaska, with Mary Peltola and the ranked choice voting
- 32:07Speaker 2: system against a very weak incumbent in Sullivan, does that
- 32:11Speaker 2: give you a better chance? Here's the thing. When you,
- 32:16Speaker 2: you know, you have to win a couple of states
- 32:18Speaker 2: where Trump won by double digits in any case. And
- 32:22Speaker 2: you want as many opportunities as possible. So Democrats can
- 32:27Speaker 2: turn to Alaska, to Iowa, to Texas, even, and I
- 32:31Speaker 2: think it's the longest of them, but even Nebraska, you know,
- 32:35Speaker 2: where you have an independent candidate supported by Democrats who
- 32:40Speaker 2: did very well in a Trump landslide last time against Ricketts,
- 32:47Speaker 2: the senator, the incumbent senator, former governor. I think that
- 32:56Speaker 2: there's a better than 50-50 chance that Democrats can piece
- 33:00Speaker 2: it together, assuming that the wave is what we think
- 33:03Speaker 2: the wave could be. And remember, the wave is more
- 33:06Speaker 2: important in these Senate races. They may piece districts together
- 33:12Speaker 2: to hold down the House margin, but statewide, you know, harder.
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- 34:54Speaker 1: Yeah, the Senate map is, I mean, it's challenging. It's
- 34:57Speaker 1: kind of shocking. And it says everything that we'd be
- 34:59Speaker 1: sitting here now. And you'd say it's a coin flip
- 35:01Speaker 1: that we take the Senate or maybe even a little
- 35:02Speaker 1: bit better than a coin flip. When I look at it,
- 35:06Speaker 1: if you're just doing most likely scenarios, I would probably
- 35:12Speaker 1: pick Alaska of the Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. Probably I'd
- 35:20Speaker 1: pick Alaska just because of the fact that Mary Patel
- 35:22Speaker 1: has won in that state before. There is ranked choice voting.
- 35:25Speaker 1: Dan Sullivan is particularly unpopular. And then, you know, I
- 35:29Speaker 1: think maybe Ohio.
- 35:30Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 35:30Speaker 1: And then the other state.
- 35:31Speaker 2: I think Ohio. You know, Sherrod Brown came pretty close
- 35:36Speaker 2: last time as Trump was carrying the state by double digits.
- 35:41Speaker 2: And he's running against a senator who was appointed who's
- 35:45Speaker 2: never run on his own statewide, uh, and who doesn't
- 35:49Speaker 2: have a, you know, a huge, um, image in the state.
- 35:53Speaker 2: So he's going to be more associated with Trump, um,
- 35:58Speaker 2: just by dint of, um, uh, of having no real profile.
- 36:03Speaker 2: I mean, he'll try and be, he was DeWine's guy.
- 36:05Speaker 2: He'll try and run that way. Uh, but he can't
- 36:07Speaker 2: run away from Trump. Trump won't allow him. And it's
- 36:10Speaker 2: very hard, as you know, to run away from an
- 36:11Speaker 2: incumbent president anyway. So, uh, Sherrod Brown was an economic
- 36:19Speaker 2: populist before economic populism was cool. I'm not sure that
- 36:27Speaker 2: I would rate Alaska over Ohio, but I think that
- 36:31Speaker 2: the most likely combination, if Democrats are to take the Senate,
- 36:35Speaker 2: would be North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska.
- 36:40Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 36:40Speaker 1: I'm sort of stipulating Maine and North Carolina as must
- 36:43Speaker 1: wins because winning three of the other four is hard.
- 36:45Speaker 2: Yeah. But he, he, Plattner is going to, you, you
- 36:50Speaker 2: saw a David French wrote a very tough column in
- 36:52Speaker 2: the New York times this week about him. And, uh,
- 36:55Speaker 2: I mean, not that people read that, but that was
- 36:57Speaker 2: the tenor of what he, you know, they're going to
- 37:00Speaker 2: go back at him with more ferocity. Um, And but
- 37:05Speaker 2: Susan Collins, you know, after all this time and given
- 37:09Speaker 2: the nature of the times is is a is a
- 37:13Speaker 2: really vulnerable candidate, you know. So we'll see for all
- 37:17Speaker 2: the reasons we discussed earlier.
- 37:19Speaker 1: It's the Susan Collins thing is interesting because she has
- 37:23Speaker 1: been like she is a Republican in a state. The
- 37:25Speaker 1: Democrats win by nine points. We should beat her. Should
- 37:29Speaker 1: have beaten her in 2020. She's very tough to beat.
- 37:32Speaker 1: She's been fortunate enough to be able to avoid some
- 37:34Speaker 1: of the worst votes this time around because of the
- 37:37Speaker 1: Senate margin.
- 37:38Speaker 2: Yeah, they cut her loose to do it.
- 37:40Speaker 1: Yeah, she didn't have to vote for the beautiful bill.
- 37:41Speaker 1: She got to take a pass on some of the
- 37:43Speaker 1: worst cabinet appointments. But she still is a Republican in
- 37:48Speaker 1: a Democratic state and one who represents status quo. It's
- 37:52Speaker 1: going to be a very fascinating race. And the question
- 37:56Speaker 1: is– and you and I both know the folks working
- 37:58Speaker 1: on that race– can Plattner withstand what will be a
- 38:03Speaker 1: massive amount of scrutiny, some of it from his own side,
- 38:05Speaker 1: because there are people pretty pissed about how this race
- 38:07Speaker 1: played out, and every possible dollar dumped on his head
- 38:11Speaker 1: with some of the nastiest.
- 38:12Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean, I think time will tell about that. Yeah,
- 38:18Speaker 2: I heard someone tell me about a focus group in
- 38:20Speaker 2: that state, and someone was talking about Susan Collins, and
- 38:23Speaker 2: they said she's only bipartisan when it doesn't count. And
- 38:29Speaker 2: I think that's something that a lot of voters there
- 38:33Speaker 2: kind of intuit. And, you know, she didn't vote for
- 38:38Speaker 2: all of Trump's Supreme Court nominees, but she voted for some.
- 38:42Speaker 1: She voted for the ones that counted, for sure.
- 38:44Speaker 2: As I pointed out to someone, you know, you can
- 38:47Speaker 2: remove a tattoo, but you can't remove a Supreme Court justice. So,
- 38:52Speaker 2: you know, we'll see how this goes. It'll be a fascinating,
- 38:55Speaker 2: fascinating race. But I'm assuming that Platner wins the race
- 38:59Speaker 2: in the end.
- 39:01Speaker 1: That's my hope for sure. You know, both in the
- 39:04Speaker 1: House and the Senate, everyone keeps saying the campaign is
- 39:06Speaker 1: about affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability. Like obviously just saying the
- 39:11Speaker 1: word affordability is not actually a message. Although, you know,
- 39:15Speaker 1: some Democrats have the habit of reading the stage directions
- 39:17Speaker 1: instead of the script. And so they're just saying affordability
- 39:19Speaker 1: over again. Is a message around affordability enough? Does it
- 39:23Speaker 1: need to be bigger than that? What do you think
- 39:24Speaker 1: Democrats should be saying?
- 39:26Speaker 2: Well, I think that we have structural issues. issues in
- 39:30Speaker 2: our economy. We've got the affordability issue is hitting people hard,
- 39:34Speaker 2: but people have been kind of bobbing in the water
- 39:40Speaker 2: and not gaining for a long time. And the polarity
- 39:46Speaker 2: in our economy gets worse and AI is going to
- 39:48Speaker 2: turbocharge that. at least in the short run, maybe in
- 39:51Speaker 2: the long run. I don't know that it's necessary to
- 39:57Speaker 2: win in November. There are discrete things you could propose
- 40:03Speaker 2: in order to win in this November, but as I said,
- 40:05Speaker 2: it's largely a referendum. Anybody who runs for president better
- 40:08Speaker 2: have a much bigger vision about how you reform a
- 40:12Speaker 2: system that was broken before. I think it's a mistake
- 40:16Speaker 2: to assume that when you run in 28, that the
- 40:18Speaker 2: message could be, we're just going to kind of restore
- 40:23Speaker 2: everything that Trump knocked down because people weren't that happy
- 40:26Speaker 2: with the system before he knocked it down. Uh, I mean,
- 40:29Speaker 2: they didn't feel they were being well served and, you know,
- 40:32Speaker 2: they felt the system was corrupt. They felt it was
- 40:34Speaker 2: rigged against them. They felt that, um, they weren't getting ahead. Um,
- 40:39Speaker 2: and that's, you know, it requires big structural kinds of answers, um,
- 40:46Speaker 2: that you know, to not only to put some equity
- 40:52Speaker 2: into the system, but also to genuinely try and reform
- 40:58Speaker 2: a system that is, you know, since our, you remember
- 41:00Speaker 2: when our boss warned people about Citizens United in 2010,
- 41:07Speaker 2: and Justice Alito was deeply offended by that and shook
- 41:10Speaker 2: his head on the floor. Everything he said has happened.
- 41:13Speaker 2: I mean, we are awash in money and dark money
- 41:18Speaker 2: and pernicious influence. And it all conspires against working people.
- 41:27Speaker 2: So campaign finance reform is really important. We also have
- 41:30Speaker 2: to think, I think Democrats, you know, what strikes me, Dan,
- 41:34Speaker 2: is that we have this battle going on between the
- 41:37Speaker 2: great ideas of the 19th century and the great ideas
- 41:39Speaker 2: of the 20th century, you know, tariffs and no civil
- 41:44Speaker 2: service and so on from the 19th century and then
- 41:48Speaker 2: sort of Rooseveltian structures in the 20th century. And we're
- 41:53Speaker 2: in the 21st century. And we ought to be thinking
- 41:56Speaker 2: about how do we solve the problems of today using
- 41:58Speaker 2: the tools of today and not be wedded to the
- 42:01Speaker 2: old ways of doing things. Be wedded to creating a
- 42:05Speaker 2: country in which people can work hard and get ahead
- 42:09Speaker 2: and where we can deal with some of our most
- 42:12Speaker 2: pressing problems. but don't assume that the way we approach
- 42:15Speaker 2: them in the 20th century is necessarily the way we
- 42:18Speaker 2: have to approach them now. I think there's a lot
- 42:20Speaker 2: of room for a genuinely, uh, reform oriented, uh, candidate
- 42:26Speaker 2: who has some vision for the future, uh, to, uh, to,
- 42:30Speaker 2: to move this country. I also, now you put the
- 42:33Speaker 2: quarter in and you're getting 10 plays, but.
- 42:35Speaker 1: I, um, I expect nothing less. I love it. I, uh,
- 42:39Speaker 1: but you know, I've been thinking.
- 42:40Speaker 2: A lot about this election and, um, no two elections
- 42:44Speaker 2: are alike. Um, but if you were going to say, well,
- 42:47Speaker 2: what is this election most like? It goes back to
- 42:50Speaker 2: one that you will not remember, but I do, which
- 42:53Speaker 2: is the election of 1976. It was the first election
- 42:57Speaker 2: I ever voted in. Um, uh, when, um, right after
- 43:02Speaker 2: Watergate and the country was stunned by what happened in
- 43:07Speaker 2: Watergate by the corruption of Richard Nixon. And, um, And
- 43:12Speaker 2: by the way, you know, there was a real politicization
- 43:16Speaker 2: of the Justice Department, of the CIA, a lot of these.
- 43:20Speaker 2: I mean, it was somewhat analogous to what we're facing today.
- 43:24Speaker 2: People wanted a cleansing. They wanted to give Washington an angioplasty.
- 43:29Speaker 2: They wanted a fresh start. And that's how Jimmy Carter
- 43:32Speaker 2: emerged in 1976. No one would have known who Jimmy
- 43:36Speaker 2: Carter was at this point. And he became... the nominee
- 43:41Speaker 2: of the party, and he won. I don't know who
- 43:43Speaker 2: that person is, but I think that two things, qualities
- 43:48Speaker 2: of character are going to be very important. Empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, humility,
- 43:56Speaker 2: all the qualities that Trump doesn't have are going to
- 43:59Speaker 2: be prized in 2028. And the second thing is, I
- 44:04Speaker 2: think being an outsider who's willing to really challenge orthodoxy
- 44:09Speaker 2: in Washington, challenge the institutions on behalf of people, is
- 44:14Speaker 2: going to be a candidate who's well-received.
- 44:16Speaker 1: This is a perfect segue to what I want to
- 44:18Speaker 1: get to, because we're going to have a little fun here.
- 44:19Speaker 1: I'm going to play some clips from some 28, potential
- 44:22Speaker 1: 28 contenders, and I'll get your take on them, both
- 44:24Speaker 1: as messengers, what they're saying. But before we get to that,
- 44:26Speaker 1: I want to, you sat down with AOC at the
- 44:32Speaker 1: Institute of Politics before a live audience. One of her
- 44:36Speaker 1: answers went quite viral. I'm going to play it for audience.
- 44:38Speaker 1: I'm going to ask you about it.
- 44:39Speaker 4: It was very clear this was a veiled threat, right?
- 44:43Speaker 4: So the elite saying, if you want this job, you
- 44:50Speaker 4: just stepped out of line. They assume that my ambition
- 44:53Speaker 4: is positional. They assume that my ambition is a title
- 44:58Speaker 4: or a seat. And My ambition is way bigger than that.
- 45:06Speaker 4: My ambition is to change this country. Presidents, come and go. Senate,
- 45:14Speaker 4: House seats, elected officials, come and go. But single-payer health
- 45:21Speaker 4: care is forever. A living wage is forever. Workers' rights
- 45:27Speaker 4: are forever. Women's rights, all of that.
- 45:29Speaker 1: So a couple of questions on this. That answer was
- 45:32Speaker 1: a Rorschach test for people about whether she was going
- 45:35Speaker 1: to run for president or not run for president. I
- 45:36Speaker 1: wanted to see, how did you take that? Do you
- 45:39Speaker 1: think that means she's planning on running for president, planning
- 45:41Speaker 1: on running for the Senate, doesn't yet know?
- 45:43Speaker 2: First of all, let me say, I thought it was
- 45:46Speaker 2: a really powerful answer. You know, I heard Favreau say
- 45:50Speaker 2: the other day that if you want to run for president,
- 45:54Speaker 2: you better know what you believe. And what she was
- 45:58Speaker 2: saying there is, I'm not in politics alone. for a job.
- 46:02Speaker 2: I'm in politics for goals that might impact positively on
- 46:10Speaker 2: people's lives, the kind of people who I grew up with,
- 46:13Speaker 2: the kind of people live all over this country. And
- 46:16Speaker 2: I think she really means it. And I think that
- 46:19Speaker 2: authenticity is really powerful. That said, if you, you know,
- 46:24Speaker 2: she said other things in this answer and elsewhere in
- 46:27Speaker 2: this conversation that made me think, She really isn't hungering
- 46:32Speaker 2: for that job. And if I were her, what I
- 46:37Speaker 2: would be thinking is, I want to have an impact.
- 46:41Speaker 2: And I'm not ready to sideline myself. The chances of
- 46:46Speaker 2: anyone getting elected president, no matter how good they are,
- 46:50Speaker 2: are limited. And, you know, she's 36 years old now.
- 46:54Speaker 2: She'll be 38. She could walk into that Senate seat
- 46:57Speaker 2: in New York. And interestingly, with this crowd of young people,
- 47:03Speaker 2: I said, you know, some people would like to see
- 47:04Speaker 2: you run for president. A bunch of them cheered. And
- 47:06Speaker 2: I said, others would like to see you run for
- 47:09Speaker 2: Senator Schumer's seat in New York. Louder cheers.
- 47:13Speaker 1: I couldn't tell if they were cheering for her to
- 47:14Speaker 1: run for senator or cheering for the fact that you
- 47:16Speaker 1: said Schumer was up.
- 47:17Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it was definitely a combination of those two things.
- 47:23Speaker 2: You know, she's got a high class problem here. She'd
- 47:27Speaker 2: get a lot of votes if she ran for president.
- 47:29Speaker 2: But I think the way I interpret what she said is,
- 47:32Speaker 2: I'm going to go where I think I can continue
- 47:34Speaker 2: this fight for those things that I believe in and
- 47:37Speaker 2: have the most impact I can have right now. And
- 47:40Speaker 2: that led me to conclude that she is more likely
- 47:44Speaker 2: headed to the Senate race than to the presidential race.
- 47:49Speaker 2: I mean, nothing she told me, nothing I... But was
- 47:53Speaker 2: that reading between the lines... I would be more surprised
- 47:57Speaker 2: if she ran for president than if she ran for
- 47:59Speaker 2: the Senate. And you and I both know that she
- 48:01Speaker 2: would not be one of a hundred if she went
- 48:03Speaker 2: to the Senate. When Barack Obama went to the Senate,
- 48:09Speaker 2: he was number whatever, 99, 98 in the Senate, but
- 48:15Speaker 2: he was not the 98th member of the Senate. People
- 48:18Speaker 2: were always interested in what he had to say.
- 48:20Speaker 1: Yeah, I have seen, I worked for, as you have
- 48:24Speaker 1: as well, worked for many politicians who were planning to
- 48:26Speaker 1: run for president and who got this question for the
- 48:29Speaker 1: years leading up to the actual announcement. And the general
- 48:32Speaker 1: approach is to just start muttering words until the questioner
- 48:38Speaker 1: stops paying attention. And they're terrible at it. And this
- 48:40Speaker 1: is the, I mean, I say this without any hesitation,
- 48:43Speaker 1: the best answer I've ever seen of anyone asked that question.
- 48:45Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 48:46Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 48:46Speaker 2: Well, you know, I mean, it really does help to
- 48:49Speaker 2: be motivated by doing something than by being something. I mean,
- 48:55Speaker 2: the world of politics divides into these two cohorts, the
- 48:58Speaker 2: people who run because they want to be something, and
- 49:01Speaker 2: that's the larger cohort. And then the smaller, more admirable,
- 49:04Speaker 2: and the more impactful cohort are the people who run
- 49:07Speaker 2: for office because they want to do something. And that
- 49:12Speaker 2: doesn't mean they don't have personal ambition, but you really,
- 49:16Speaker 2: you know, honestly, I would say this anybody runs for
- 49:18Speaker 2: president it's too damn hard to do it i don't
- 49:21Speaker 2: mean just to win but it's such an arduous thing
- 49:25Speaker 2: to do uh don't do it unless you know why
- 49:28Speaker 2: you're doing it and and just you know and if
- 49:31Speaker 2: you think that it's such a prize to live in
- 49:34Speaker 2: a gilded prison you're making a mistake, you know, no
- 49:39Speaker 2: one ever will, no one ever will feel sorry for
- 49:42Speaker 2: a president of the United States, but you do change
- 49:45Speaker 2: your life forever. And it's not all positive. I mean,
- 49:48Speaker 2: you basically give up your, you know, a lot to,
- 49:52Speaker 2: to do it. I, you know, I, I think I'm
- 49:57Speaker 2: not saying that she won't run and I'm not saying
- 49:58Speaker 2: that she won't run someday. But based on what I heard,
- 50:05Speaker 2: And if I were betting on it, I would bet
- 50:06Speaker 2: that she's going to the one place and not the other.
- 50:09Speaker 1: I had the same impression that she was, that he clearly,
- 50:12Speaker 1: the people who have wanted to be president since they
- 50:14Speaker 1: were 17 years old. She said that. It's obvious in
- 50:17Speaker 1: the answer. And she's clearly not one of those people.
- 50:19Speaker 2: She said that. She said, I'm not one of these
- 50:21Speaker 2: people who've been planning my campaign for an office since
- 50:27Speaker 2: I was seven years old. She said, we all remember
- 50:32Speaker 2: her when she, the night she got elected to or
- 50:35Speaker 2: nominated to the Congress. And she was in her headquarters
- 50:38Speaker 2: in a billiards hall in the Bronx with some supporters
- 50:42Speaker 2: around her, with her hand over her mouth and her
- 50:44Speaker 2: eyes wide open, watching these returns come in. She was
- 50:47Speaker 2: as surprised as anybody.
- 50:49Speaker 1: Whatever she decides. I think when she first came to Congress,
- 50:52Speaker 1: she was clearly one of the best communicators in terms
- 50:56Speaker 1: of how you communicate. Like she understood the modern media
- 50:58Speaker 1: environment better than almost anyone in Congress, which is not
- 51:01Speaker 1: saying a ton, but you know, she's doing Instagram live.
- 51:03Speaker 1: She's on social media. She knows how to do it.
- 51:06Speaker 1: But I think in the last couple of years, she's
- 51:08Speaker 1: also become the best, one of the best messengers in
- 51:10Speaker 1: the party. Like about what she actually says, like is very,
- 51:14Speaker 1: it's very powerful.
- 51:15Speaker 6: She came there.
- 51:16Speaker 2: She's the youngest woman ever elected to the house. I
- 51:20Speaker 2: think we've watched her mature as a political leader and,
- 51:23Speaker 2: during those eight years. I think that process is ongoing,
- 51:27Speaker 2: and I think she knows that too. But she's an
- 51:30Speaker 2: impressive person. The reason that she is so good, yes,
- 51:33Speaker 2: she knows how to use social media and modern media,
- 51:39Speaker 2: but the thing that you can't teach and the thing
- 51:42Speaker 2: you can't buy is the ability to communicate authentically and
- 51:47Speaker 2: to give people a sense that you're talking honestly with them.
- 51:52Speaker 2: That's what great great political leaders do. And she has
- 51:56Speaker 2: that quality. So that's a hell of a thing to
- 51:59Speaker 2: build on.
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- 53:55Speaker 1: All right, let's watch some other people, see what you think.
- 53:57Speaker 1: I'm going to start with John Ossoff, who may or
- 54:00Speaker 1: may not run for president, but he certainly has to
- 54:01Speaker 1: win re-election in Georgia first. Let's take a look at
- 54:03Speaker 1: one of his recent rallies. How does American politics really work?
- 54:09Speaker 5: It's coin operated. Money goes in, favors come out.
- 54:17Speaker 1: It's been running on secret money, corporate money, billionaire money.
- 54:21Speaker 2: Both sides. Both sides.
- 54:31Speaker 9: Citizens United was the worst court decision in modern American history.
- 54:38Speaker 2: Yeah, he's singing from my hymn book there.
- 54:40Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, I know. What do you think about
- 54:41Speaker 1: him as a communicator?
- 54:43Speaker 2: You know, he's a great communicator. I haven't seen him as,
- 54:46Speaker 2: most of the time when I see him, he's behind
- 54:48Speaker 2: a podium. And, you know, there are other elements of
- 54:51Speaker 2: communication and I haven't seen a lot of that. Although
- 54:56Speaker 2: I just spoke to someone, someone you and I both
- 54:58Speaker 2: know who saw him at an event. You may have
- 55:00Speaker 2: been at the same event because I think it was
- 55:01Speaker 2: out West and said he was really, really good and
- 55:08Speaker 2: kind of off the cuff interaction with people and so on. Listen,
- 55:11Speaker 2: I take him seriously. Um, you know, if you, if
- 55:15Speaker 2: you believe what I said earlier about the kind of
- 55:17Speaker 2: candidate who will do well, he, he checks a lot
- 55:20Speaker 2: of those boxes and he hasn't been in, even though
- 55:23Speaker 2: he is a, um, Senator, he has not been there
- 55:27Speaker 2: long enough, uh, to be, uh, sort of corrupted in
- 55:30Speaker 2: people's minds as a, as a kind of fact, as an,
- 55:35Speaker 2: a practitioner of, uh, of inside the beltway politics, which
- 55:39Speaker 2: he's not. Um, so I, you know, I mean, it's
- 55:42Speaker 2: a quick turnaround. He's young. Uh, but, um, I think
- 55:47Speaker 2: youth also is an advantage in this election because after
- 55:51Speaker 2: two presidents who were in their eighties, uh, I think
- 55:54Speaker 2: people are going to be really looking for, uh, for, uh,
- 55:58Speaker 2: a more youthful candidate.
- 55:59Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 55:59Speaker 1: You raised an interesting point. Cause I think he is
- 56:02Speaker 1: the best speech giver that I've seen in a while. He,
- 56:05Speaker 1: You know, there's a whole generation of politicians sort of
- 56:07Speaker 1: raised on Obama who speak like Obama. And I think
- 56:09Speaker 1: he does the best. Like, you can see it in
- 56:11Speaker 1: the tone. He has some of the same pauses, the
- 56:14Speaker 1: same cadence. But it doesn't look like Obama karaoke, which sometimes.
- 56:18Speaker 2: You can't smell. Yeah, we've seen that too. He apparently
- 56:21Speaker 2: does a lot of writing. You know, Obama, you know,
- 56:24Speaker 2: he had great speechwriters. You work with some of them.
- 56:27Speaker 2: But they would tell you that, you know, they would
- 56:30Speaker 2: give him a product that was in good shape. And
- 56:33Speaker 2: then he would buff it up. or add things that
- 56:36Speaker 2: took it from one level to the next. And because
- 56:38Speaker 2: of that, he was familiar. He felt organic to the
- 56:41Speaker 2: copy he was reading. So I think he has that.
- 56:46Speaker 2: But the other thing that people don't appreciate about Obama,
- 56:50Speaker 2: and you would because you travel around with him, like
- 56:53Speaker 2: those 87 days we spent in Iowa where he was
- 56:58Speaker 2: doing six, eight stops a day, more even, in small venues,
- 57:04Speaker 2: interacting with people. He was very good at that. You know,
- 57:10Speaker 2: you have to, running for president is a decathlon. It's
- 57:13Speaker 2: not just one event. So you can be great at,
- 57:16Speaker 2: you know, pole vaulting, but you still have to, you know,
- 57:19Speaker 2: throw the javelin. And so the test of campaigns is,
- 57:23Speaker 2: how do you do all, do you do all the
- 57:25Speaker 2: events well enough to win? So I don't know that
- 57:29Speaker 2: about Ossoff, but he's certainly a promising politician.
- 57:34Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to see him, you know, I mean,
- 57:36Speaker 1: this is a very self-referential way to say, but like,
- 57:38Speaker 1: can he pass the podcast test? Can he sit and
- 57:39Speaker 1: like shoot the show? Like, I was just watching a
- 57:41Speaker 1: clip of Obama.
- 57:42Speaker 2: Well, that's subtle, Pfeiffer.
- 57:44Speaker 1: Well, I mean, well, he's been on our podcast. He's
- 57:45Speaker 1: done fine. But it's like, it's not really, can you
- 57:47Speaker 1: come on Positive America or Hacks on Tap? It's can
- 57:49Speaker 1: you go on Rogan or All the Smoke? Can you
- 57:52Speaker 1: relate to people on a cultural, personal level that's not
- 57:54Speaker 1: just politics?
- 57:55Speaker 2: The test that Vice President Harris wouldn't take.
- 57:59Speaker 3: Yes.
- 58:00Speaker 9: Yes.
- 58:00Speaker 5: All right.
- 58:01Speaker 1: Let's do the next one is someone familiar to all
- 58:03Speaker 1: of us, Pete Buttigieg.
- 58:04Speaker 8: There is a powerful American majority for change and for
- 58:09Speaker 8: the things we believe in, because right now you've got
- 58:11Speaker 8: this administration that's created the illusion that their positions are
- 58:15Speaker 8: supported by most Americans. And it's just not true. Most
- 58:20Speaker 8: Americans agree that we should be taxing the wealthy more,
- 58:23Speaker 8: not giving giant tax.
- 58:25Speaker 1: Cuts to billionaires.
- 58:26Speaker 8: Most Americans think it is nuts that we're being told
- 58:29Speaker 8: we can't have nice things like rural hospitals and good
- 58:33Speaker 8: roads and fully funded public schools at the same time
- 58:37Speaker 8: that you got billionaires paying a lower tax rate than
- 58:40Speaker 8: the nurses in those hospitals and the workers who work
- 58:43Speaker 8: on those roads and the teachers who teach in those schools.
- 58:46Speaker 1: What do you make of Pete?
- 58:47Speaker 2: Well, look, um, In many, I've said this before, he
- 58:53Speaker 2: is as bright and thoughtful as anybody I've seen since
- 59:01Speaker 2: Barack Obama in terms of his ability to sort of
- 59:04Speaker 2: think in interesting ways and uh, posit arguments in ways
- 59:10Speaker 2: that really are clear and thoughtful. Um, and, uh, he's,
- 59:15Speaker 2: he's a very, very talented guy and, and, um, I,
- 59:19Speaker 2: I really, I like him a lot. I mean, uh,
- 59:23Speaker 2: and I think he's underrated in this, you know, I mean,
- 59:25Speaker 2: when you hear conversations, he's not, people don't talk about him,
- 59:29Speaker 2: but you know, every time you look at a poll
- 59:31Speaker 2: and some of it's name recognition, yes, but he's, he's
- 59:36Speaker 2: well regarded by Democrats and the things he's articulating out
- 59:41Speaker 2: there kind of they, they square up with some of
- 59:44Speaker 2: the things I'm saying. He's talking about renewal, not restoration.
- 59:48Speaker 2: He's talking about reform, you know, like basic fundamental reforms
- 59:55Speaker 2: you know now, you know, I don't know whether experience
- 59:59Speaker 2: of the Biden administration is advantageous or not. Maybe not.
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: I guess net neutral at best is maybe my guess.
- 1:00:06Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 1:00:07Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: I wonder, I haven't never had this conversation with him,
- 1:00:10Speaker 2: whether if he had to do it all over again,
- 1:00:12Speaker 2: whether he would have opted for that. He might be
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: in better position than he was. You know, there's always
- 1:00:19Speaker 2: this question about an openly gay man running. Is America
- 1:00:22Speaker 2: ready for that? And look, the one thing that he
- 1:00:25Speaker 2: did not prove in 2020 was that he could win
- 1:00:29Speaker 2: black votes. And that is a really essential task for
- 1:00:34Speaker 2: anybody to get through this process. You know, black voters
- 1:00:39Speaker 2: in the South in particular are really, really important. And so,
- 1:00:45Speaker 2: you know, there are questions, but the talent is undeniable.
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Pete's incredibly smart. I saw him at
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: an event recently and he just, he's so good. Off
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: the cuff, he's so good answering questions.
- 1:00:59Speaker 2: Yeah, and he does the podcast. He passes the podcast.
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: Yeah, all those things. The thing that was always, I think,
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: not like the Black voters, it's just impossible. You can't
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: win the math as such with primaries across the South,
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: the way delegates are allocated. There's no way to do it.
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: That's why Obama won. That's why Hillary won. That's why
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: Biden won.
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: Right.
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: But the thing about Pete's communication in 2020 was it
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: always felt to me like a little bit at a remove.
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: Like he was so good and so polished that, you know,
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: it just, like there was this distance between him and
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: the audience.
- 1:01:33Speaker 2: I think it's a really, I think it's an important observation.
- 1:01:35Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: But I will say when he was on CNBC a
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: few weeks ago and he was arguing with Joe Kernan.
- 1:01:42Speaker 2: Yes.
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: I thought it was some of the best people. Like
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: Pete will go on and he'll like get every word
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: exactly right on Fox News and he'll stuff Sean Hannity
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: into a proverbial locker or whatever else and it's incredible.
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: But when he was on with Joe Kernan, like he
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: showed He was so frustrated and so angered by the
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: stupidity and the unfairness of what Cronin was saying. That
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: was one of his most authentic moments. I thought it
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: was quite, quite good and I think maybe indicative. His
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: life has changed a lot since 2020. He's got married.
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: He's got kids. He's been through times. I think it'll
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: be very interesting to see how he's involved Canada this
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: time around because if so, there's real potential and he
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: benefits from the fact then New Hampshire is probably the
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: first state, and it's a place where he has a
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: great base of strength.
- 1:02:25Speaker 2: Yeah, and continues to poll well. Don't underestimate the value
- 1:02:29Speaker 2: of having run the track before, or just to use
- 1:02:34Speaker 2: another sports analogy, he knows the lay of the greens.
- 1:02:38Speaker 2: And running for president is not like running for any
- 1:02:42Speaker 2: other office. So he knows the pressures of it. He
- 1:02:45Speaker 2: knows the cadence of it. He knows this stuff. That
- 1:02:48Speaker 2: is a valuable asset.
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: All right, let's look at Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky.
- 1:02:53Speaker 9: You've seen how some of this speak has crept into
- 1:02:57Speaker 9: the Democratic Party, and we sound like we're talking down
- 1:02:59Speaker 9: to people. We've got to talk to people and not
- 1:03:02Speaker 9: at them. Kentucky got hit by that opioid epidemic as
- 1:03:06Speaker 9: hard as anybody, but maybe West Virginia. I mean, we've
- 1:03:09Speaker 9: all lost people we love and care about. I didn't
- 1:03:11Speaker 9: lose one to substance use disorder. I lost them all
- 1:03:14Speaker 9: to addictions. If we want to push back against this
- 1:03:17Speaker 9: president and what he's doing to snap, trying to hold
- 1:03:20Speaker 9: hungry people hostage for political gain, it can't be that
- 1:03:23Speaker 9: there'll be food insecure. It's got to be that they'll
- 1:03:26Speaker 9: go hungry. We've got to communicate to people in the
- 1:03:30Speaker 9: values that they know and how they would talk to
- 1:03:33Speaker 9: each other.
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: Electability is obviously going to be a huge issue for
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: Democrats as it was in 2020. No one has a
- 1:03:37Speaker 1: better electability story than this year. What do you make
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: of them?
- 1:03:41Speaker 2: Look, I mean, again, going back to the things I
- 1:03:44Speaker 2: told you before, I mean, you have to look at
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: him because he's an outsider. He's also a guy who,
- 1:03:50Speaker 2: by the way, can go into those black churches and
- 1:03:55Speaker 2: in a compelling way. And, you know, and in terms
- 1:04:00Speaker 2: of empathy, most of the time when we've seen him
- 1:04:03Speaker 2: over the last eight years, it's because his state has
- 1:04:06Speaker 2: been beset by some natural disaster or, you a horrific
- 1:04:12Speaker 2: gun incident. And he's really, really good at that. He's
- 1:04:17Speaker 2: great at expressing empathy. I sort of agree with what
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: he said there. The thing I would say is it's
- 1:04:24Speaker 2: not just about the language that we use. It's about,
- 1:04:28Speaker 2: and I've said this a lot of times, my objection
- 1:04:31Speaker 2: to Democrats since the Democratic Party has become a kind
- 1:04:35Speaker 2: of metropolitan college-educated Party is we're still a party of
- 1:04:40Speaker 2: working people or see us that way, see ourselves that way.
- 1:04:43Speaker 2: But we approach them like missionaries and anthropologists. And we
- 1:04:46Speaker 2: show up and we say, we're here to help you
- 1:04:47Speaker 2: become more like us. And the implied message is that
- 1:04:51Speaker 2: what you do really isn't as important as what we do,
- 1:04:54Speaker 2: except then when we have a pandemic and then we're
- 1:04:58Speaker 2: home and we're making our living on our computer and
- 1:05:01Speaker 2: they're out there caring for us, protecting us, making things,
- 1:05:06Speaker 2: shipping things. and doing everything it takes to keep the
- 1:05:09Speaker 2: country going. And then we go out on our balconies
- 1:05:11Speaker 2: and we bang our pots and we say, you're the
- 1:05:13Speaker 2: essential worker until the pandemic's over. And then they sort
- 1:05:17Speaker 2: of become invisible again. So I think it's more, it's
- 1:05:21Speaker 2: about more than just the language. We fundamentally have to
- 1:05:27Speaker 2: think about how we value people in our society.
- 1:05:31Speaker 5: All right.
- 1:05:32Speaker 1: Last one we'll do is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
- 1:05:35Speaker 10: We have an opportunity to have a real debate within
- 1:05:38Speaker 10: our party about what we stand for, about what our
- 1:05:41Speaker 10: affirmative vision is. It has to be about what we
- 1:05:44Speaker 10: are going to do to make people's lives better. And
- 1:05:49Speaker 10: I think that that is a debate that our party
- 1:05:52Speaker 10: hasn't had for a good long while. And that debate
- 1:05:55Speaker 10: is not only going to help the Democratic Party, I
- 1:05:57Speaker 10: think it's going to be healthy for this country. And
- 1:06:00Speaker 10: what I can tell you for sure, is that I
- 1:06:02Speaker 10: want to be a part of that debate. Bring the
- 1:06:04Speaker 10: common sense sensibility of what we do in Pennsylvania to
- 1:06:08Speaker 10: that conversation.
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: Like Beshear, Shapiro has won the key state of Pennsylvania.
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: He's likely going to win it again by a very
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: large margin, which will bolster his selectability case. What do
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: you make of Shapiro?
- 1:06:18Speaker 2: Look, he's a very talented and very smart. And what
- 1:06:22Speaker 2: he said, I obviously agree with. I.
- 1:06:30Speaker 2: He's one of the guys who he can slide into
- 1:06:34Speaker 2: sort of pigeon Obama from time to time. And he's
- 1:06:40Speaker 2: taken a lot of criticism for it. He can be
- 1:06:45Speaker 2: a little irascible. And for him, I think the important
- 1:06:50Speaker 2: thing is to be real. He's so smart and politically
- 1:06:55Speaker 2: savvy that sometimes you feel like he's giving the politically savvy...
- 1:07:01Speaker 2: well manicured answer, and you don't know what, you don't
- 1:07:06Speaker 2: see the person behind it. So those would be the
- 1:07:09Speaker 2: concerns that I'd raise. But look, I thought, you know,
- 1:07:12Speaker 2: I thought he should have been the vice presidential candidate
- 1:07:16Speaker 2: in 2024. Probably good for him that he wasn't. But
- 1:07:23Speaker 2: I think highly of him. And he's got some good
- 1:07:24Speaker 2: stories to tell. That story about the sort of record
- 1:07:29Speaker 2: pace at which they repaired the fallen bridge in Pennsylvania
- 1:07:32Speaker 2: is a metaphor for something that Democrats need to struggle
- 1:07:35Speaker 2: with is, if you're the party of government, how do
- 1:07:38Speaker 2: you assure people that government can work? And he's got
- 1:07:42Speaker 2: some examples to underscore. He also, Dan, has forged a
- 1:07:47Speaker 2: relationship with working class voters and rural communities in his state.
- 1:07:53Speaker 2: I think he does approach those voters respectfully and has
- 1:07:58Speaker 2: built alliances there that I think is very useful and
- 1:08:04Speaker 2: important and instructive. So, you know, again, you've got a
- 1:08:07Speaker 2: good assortment there. I know you only have a short
- 1:08:10Speaker 2: period of time, so you can't put all 106 aspirants
- 1:08:14Speaker 2: up there, but that's a pretty strong assortment of candidates.
- 1:08:19Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: You know, Shapiro, It's probably not discussed enough how popular
- 1:08:23Speaker 1: he is in Pennsylvania. Being a popular governor of Pennsylvania
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: is not an easy thing to do. This is a
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: state that Donald Trump has won twice and has moved
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: away from Democrats. We have moved away from Pennsylvania demographically
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: as a party. He basically has a coalition that combines
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: the new version of the Democratic Party with these college-educated
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: suburbanites outside of the collar counties around Philadelphia with some
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: of the numbers that Democrats like Obama and Clinton had
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: in the rural parts of the state in the great–
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: the great expanse between Pennsylvania and between Philly and Pittsburgh.
- 1:08:55Speaker 2: And it's very impressive. Let me ask you a question.
- 1:08:58Speaker 2: And based on, you know, you've got your finger on
- 1:09:01Speaker 2: the pulse of the left and the party. You know,
- 1:09:07Speaker 2: the question that comes up oftentimes from Jews, and I'm Jewish, is, well,
- 1:09:12Speaker 2: can a Jew get elected given the antipathy toward Israel
- 1:09:18Speaker 2: now and Now, he's been a very strong critic of
- 1:09:22Speaker 2: Bibi Netanyahu, but how big an issue is that? Do
- 1:09:28Speaker 2: you think that's an insuperable barrier for Democratic candidates? I don't,
- 1:09:34Speaker 2: but you would know better. I don't believe being.
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: Jewish is a barrier that cannot be overcome for a
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: Democratic candidate. I think that any Democratic candidate is going
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: to have to have a vociferous criticism of the Netanyahu
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: government is going to have to take very strong positions
- 1:09:50Speaker 1: that would have seemed impossible a few years ago about
- 1:09:52Speaker 1: conditions on aid to Israel, about funding the Golden Dome.
- 1:09:54Speaker 1: I mean, even R, your close friend, my old boss,
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: Rahm Emanuel came out suggesting he would not be for that.
- 1:10:01Speaker 1: I think what you cannot be seen, you don't want
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: to be seen in a Democratic primary as the pro-Netanyahu
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: candidate or the AIPAC candidate or someone who's associated with
- 1:10:10Speaker 1: the Biden's administration's position or policy on Gaza. So I
- 1:10:14Speaker 1: think he can do it, but those are going to
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: be tricky waters for him to navigate, given some of
- 1:10:19Speaker 1: the ways in which he's approached those issues in his past. Well,
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: let me say- I think he's changed his rhetoric in
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: recent times.
- 1:10:24Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, one thing you said I quite
- 1:10:28Speaker 2: agree with, the attitudes have shifted in ways we wouldn't
- 1:10:32Speaker 2: have predicted because Bibi has done things we never would
- 1:10:36Speaker 2: have predicted. Perhaps we could have or should have, but
- 1:10:42Speaker 2: the way he prosecuted uh, uh, the war in Gaza, uh,
- 1:10:47Speaker 2: you know, I, I say this as a, as a
- 1:10:49Speaker 2: Jew it's, you know, I, I was horrified and, uh,
- 1:10:54Speaker 2: angered by what happened on October 7th. Uh, but that
- 1:10:58Speaker 2: doesn't mean that I don't grieve for the children of
- 1:11:00Speaker 2: Gaza and that I'm not repulsed by some, uh, the
- 1:11:05Speaker 2: way that, that unfolded. And I, I don't think, uh,
- 1:11:09Speaker 2: you're going to find candidates Jewish or not who, who don't,
- 1:11:13Speaker 2: agree with that. One interesting thing is that they have
- 1:11:16Speaker 2: an election in Israel in October. Bibi Netanyahu may be
- 1:11:19Speaker 2: gone by the time this campaign begins in earnest. And
- 1:11:24Speaker 2: you wonder whether that changes anything, you know?
- 1:11:28Speaker 1: Yeah. It's a very open question of what the world
- 1:11:31Speaker 1: will look like when these candidates actually have to go
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: get votes in New Hampshire or whatever other states in
- 1:11:36Speaker 1: the early part of the calendar in early 2028. I
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: did not play a clip from Kamala Harris. If you
- 1:11:42Speaker 1: had asked me two or three months ago, I would
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: have put the strong odds against her running. I think
- 1:11:47Speaker 1: in the recent months, she's been out there more. She's
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: been doing more things that suggest that maybe she's seriously
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: thinking about running. What do you make of that?
- 1:11:54Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of it. I mean,
- 1:11:56Speaker 2: she obviously is making noises as if she's going to run.
- 1:11:58Speaker 2: And you know, once you run for president, especially when
- 1:12:04Speaker 2: you come as close as she did, especially under the
- 1:12:06Speaker 2: circumstances she did, very hard to look around and say,
- 1:12:09Speaker 2: why not me? But I also don't think America's going to,
- 1:12:14Speaker 2: and Democrats are going to ultimately go for the back
- 1:12:17Speaker 2: to the future candidate. You know, there's a lot of,
- 1:12:20Speaker 2: there are a lot of seared memories of 24 and
- 1:12:24Speaker 2: a lot of it don't have to do with her,
- 1:12:25Speaker 2: but with her boss, you know, in the White House. But,
- 1:12:32Speaker 2: you know, it didn't end well. There are a lot
- 1:12:34Speaker 2: of Democrats who we're hoping that it would. And part
- 1:12:37Speaker 2: of it did have to do with her inability or
- 1:12:41Speaker 2: reluctance to do the things that you have to do
- 1:12:44Speaker 2: at that level. You know, go on those podcasts, be real,
- 1:12:48Speaker 2: be open. And, and of course the answer on the
- 1:12:53Speaker 2: view under the withering interrogation of the, of the people
- 1:12:58Speaker 2: on the view to not be able to answer the
- 1:13:01Speaker 2: question that I think any sort of competent, candidate at
- 1:13:07Speaker 2: any level would know how to answer when asked, is
- 1:13:12Speaker 2: there anything you would have done differently? She didn't have
- 1:13:14Speaker 2: to say, yes, these things. She could have said, I'm
- 1:13:19Speaker 2: grateful for the opportunity he gave me. I'm not going
- 1:13:21Speaker 2: to critique him here. I'm here to tell you, I'm
- 1:13:25Speaker 2: not running to be the second term of Joe Biden.
- 1:13:28Speaker 2: I'm running to be the first term of Kamala Harris,
- 1:13:30Speaker 2: and I'll tell you what I'm going to do. I mean,
- 1:13:32Speaker 2: there are a million ways to have answered that question.
- 1:13:34Speaker 2: She just couldn't find any of them. And those are
- 1:13:37Speaker 2: the moments that define campaigns.
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's from her perspective, right? As you
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: came very close, you know, she believes, as many people
- 1:13:48Speaker 1: in the campaign, that given more time, she might have
- 1:13:50Speaker 1: actually won that race. Or if she had not been thrusted,
- 1:13:52Speaker 1: if she had a chance to actually, if Biden had
- 1:13:53Speaker 1: just not run at all and she'd won a primary,
- 1:13:56Speaker 1: she could have maybe actually won. No way to answer
- 1:13:59Speaker 1: that counterfactual. But you look at, you know, one way
- 1:14:02Speaker 1: she's leading in all the polls right now. And now
- 1:14:04Speaker 1: you and I know, and everyone knows that oftentimes the
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: person leading in the polls at the beginning is leading
- 1:14:09Speaker 1: by dint of name recognition and nothing else. And that
- 1:14:11Speaker 1: falls pretty quickly, like it did for Rudy Giuliani in 2008,
- 1:14:16Speaker 1: Joe Lieberman in 2004. But it still is true that
- 1:14:21Speaker 1: you're not winning the Democratic nomination without running up the
- 1:14:25Speaker 1: score with black voters across the South. And you look
- 1:14:28Speaker 1: at that field right now, and she's the candidate best
- 1:14:30Speaker 1: position to do that. So you could she could make
- 1:14:32Speaker 1: an argument to herself about how she could win that nomination.
- 1:14:34Speaker 1: Now the question will be, you know, and this was,
- 1:14:37Speaker 1: I think the experience John Kerry had when he was
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: thinking of running again in 2008 is he was all
- 1:14:41Speaker 1: ready to go, picked up the phone, started calling all
- 1:14:43Speaker 1: his old supporters and they were like, I'm with Hillary,
- 1:14:46Speaker 1: I'm with Biden, I'm with Hillary, I'm with Obama, I'm
- 1:14:48Speaker 1: with Edwards. And she might have a similar, you know,
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: I don't know.
- 1:14:52Speaker 2: And not just probably, you know, from what I understand,
- 1:14:55Speaker 2: not just don't, not just supporters and donors, but even
- 1:14:58Speaker 2: some key staff, you know, look, I respect her and
- 1:15:05Speaker 2: she got thrust into a really difficult position, but I
- 1:15:11Speaker 2: just don't see this. And I, yeah, I mean, I
- 1:15:16Speaker 2: do think she's the beneficiary of early name recognition on
- 1:15:21Speaker 2: this issue. She may well do, you know, really well
- 1:15:25Speaker 2: with African-American voters in the South, but I keep thinking
- 1:15:30Speaker 2: back to 2019 when she was a co-frontrunner with Joe
- 1:15:33Speaker 2: Biden when she entered the race and she never made
- 1:15:35Speaker 2: it to Iowa. And her numbers in those southern states
- 1:15:39Speaker 2: weren't that good. So I don't know. I just don't
- 1:15:48Speaker 2: have enough information to know, but I think she's going
- 1:15:50Speaker 2: to receive some tough news from some of the people
- 1:15:57Speaker 2: whose support perhaps she was counting on.
- 1:16:00Speaker 1: Anyone I didn't mention that you have your eye on?
- 1:16:04Speaker 2: Um, actually it's kind of uncanny because, uh, you, you,
- 1:16:08Speaker 2: you listed a bunch of folks who, you know, look, um, uh,
- 1:16:14Speaker 2: I got two guys from Illinois, right?
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: Yeah. I was gonna, I was looking for a good
- 1:16:18Speaker 1: ROM clip to play at the end for you, but
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: I didn't want to.
- 1:16:20Speaker 2: Look ROM, ROM, you know, I would say that, um, uh,
- 1:16:27Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom won the presidential primary of 2025. I think
- 1:16:32Speaker 2: Rahm is doing pretty well in 2026, at least with
- 1:16:35Speaker 2: opinion elites. I mean, he's throwing out a bunch of ideas.
- 1:16:40Speaker 2: He's really aggressive, you know, and we'll see where that
- 1:16:44Speaker 2: takes him. Governor Pritzker is running for reelection, but it
- 1:16:49Speaker 2: seems pretty clear to me that he's headed in that direction.
- 1:16:53Speaker 2: And he's shown a lot more serious political chops than
- 1:16:57Speaker 2: I would have expected when he first ran for office. He's,
- 1:17:04Speaker 2: and he does have affection among some, among the Democratic base.
- 1:17:08Speaker 2: You probably hear it in your own, and he's got,
- 1:17:12Speaker 2: obviously he's got the advantage of resources. So, you know, I,
- 1:17:17Speaker 2: I wouldn't draw him out of the, out of the circle.
- 1:17:23Speaker 2: You know, rumors emanate from, Washington, that Cory Booker might
- 1:17:28Speaker 2: run again. He didn't do that well in 2020. But
- 1:17:34Speaker 2: he's got talents. He's got gifts. And in an election
- 1:17:38Speaker 2: that may be about sort of character and kind of the,
- 1:17:43Speaker 2: you know, to borrow Biden's phrase, though no one should
- 1:17:46Speaker 2: use it, the soul of America, which honestly is going
- 1:17:50Speaker 2: to be important in 2028. You know, he's a guy
- 1:17:53Speaker 2: who can speak to that. But I, you know, I
- 1:17:56Speaker 2: don't know if he can, you know, do appreciably better
- 1:18:01Speaker 2: than he did. But I'm also like open to someone
- 1:18:04Speaker 2: we haven't, you know, someone coming from somewhere we don't
- 1:18:07Speaker 2: even know. Like I said, this is a thing, an
- 1:18:11Speaker 2: election that's grooved for an outsider. And it may be,
- 1:18:15Speaker 2: you know, you hear about Mark Cuban, you hear other
- 1:18:17Speaker 2: people mention. So who knows? Who knows? I remember calling
- 1:18:24Speaker 2: Jon Stewart and in 2019 after Zelensky got elected president
- 1:18:30Speaker 2: of Ukraine, before Zelensky became, you know, the wartime leader,
- 1:18:35Speaker 2: Churchill of our time. And I said to John, John,
- 1:18:39Speaker 2: you know, short Jewish comedians, they're all the rage right now. So,
- 1:18:44Speaker 2: you know, don't count him out.
- 1:18:47Speaker 10: All right.
- 1:18:47Speaker 1: I think it's a great place to leave it. Jon
- 1:18:48Speaker 1: Stewart for president. David Axelrod, thanks for joining us.
- 1:18:51Speaker 2: Always great to talk to you. See you in Chicago.
- 1:18:54Speaker 1: Absolutely.
- 1:18:55Speaker 2: Thanks, Dan.
- 1:18:55Speaker 5: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show
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