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Bowman Basics #4! Approaching the Offseason · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Happens hello everybody. Welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. I am Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards on Instagram, whatnot, eBay, ⁓ and so forth, joined by my co-host Jeremy Brown of ⁓ perfect game baseball, and more importantly, known on Instagram as JGB underscore cards underscore. Gotta have that second underscore in there. Jheremy: Got them both. Jaba: And tonight's pro podcast, as always, is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulse v1.com. The absolute best place for data, information, articles, you name it. If you are a serious Bowman investor, Bowman collector, whatever it may be, you are doing yourself a disservice if you are not subscribing to Prospect Pulse. It is a critical tool that I use every day and I encourage everybody to check it out. So today Jeremy and I are gonna get into the impact of markets on players and then kind of as a secondary point we're gonna talk about organizational depth to a degree. So a situation like the Dodgers where you get a great market with you know a huge fan base, everybody wants to collect Dodgers cards. But then the prospect pool is so good, the major league roster is so good that basically guys are getting slow played and you know, we're gonna get into kind of how we approach looking at those guys in those particular situations. So, Jeremy, I'll kick it over to you. What are your I guess big how how do you approach looking at market size and, you know, when you're buying Bowman cards, you know, how does the market impact what you're doing. Jheremy: You definitely have to think about it, right? Like if we've learned anything over the last what year, Mets arms sell. Like Mets arms inevitably seem to pop at some point. Using Mets for you is a perfect example, but like you look at ⁓ they all kind of get that bump. Or Henry Lelane when he was with the Yankees, got that Yankee tax that we talk about with so many of these guys. ⁓ Dax Kilby had a great pro ⁓ great, you know, initial get out of the complex. Got that Yankees tax on him. Granted, he also played awesome. But there are certain teams where I mean Anthony Ianson might be a perfect example after he actually just dealt again what last night. But ⁓ Kyson today with ⁓ another like he's thrown really well since he both of them have thrown really well since it got traded. But like their markets aren't, I don't think what they are or were when they were with the Red Sox, right? So like it does Jaba: Kayson today. I I I don't believe so. Jheremy: It does play an impact on it. Anything Dodgers usually seems and I mean the Brewers, like the Brewers sell really well. They have a strong fan base within the market, within the card community. So definitely something you have to look f look at when you have on the flip side, you have like awesome players like with Cleveland. But they don't necessarily get that pump all the way through. Angel Janelle, Berlin Dodie's so a twenty dollar base auto. Ralphie Velasquez, I it it might be up past a three. a three digit base auto now, but like there's definitely a part of the formula when you kind of look at checklists and who you're going in on. Jaba: So to go back to that point on Ianson, I ⁓ hopped over to Prospect Pulse to check a couple things. On July 30th, his base auto was selling at $85. There's a sale at $89. There's a sale at $90. Jheremy: Okay. So his performance is kind of Jaba: Would you like to guess would you like to guess ⁓ the last three sales as of today, August twenty first? Jheremy: I mean I saw one available on Facebook or Instagram story sale for like seventy five bucks. So Jaba: It it has done sixty one, fifty eight, and sixty-five. And I again, as Jeremy said, he's been he's been dealing since he got there. He he's been dealing all year. So I don't know if I can actually say that he's pitching better per se, but he's not pitching worse. Jheremy: Yelling since he got traded. No, but like there definitely wasn't a fall off since he got traded. Like there hasn't been a tri fall off. Jaba: Yeah, seventeen and a third, twenty four K's, five walks, ⁓ you know, same mid twos ERA, which is I guess a little higher, but it's still a mid twos ERA. Not like he's you know, by his standard it's but Jheremy: Yeah. No, you're you're happy with that still. So Jaba: You know, i i it's it i it is crazy how things, you know, out of your control can, you know, change a guy's landscape entirely. Jheremy: Yeah. I mean Impact your market. Like You kinda hold your breath, right? Like on that kinda hold your breath on trade deadline day, 'cause you don't know who's going where. Like Harold Drevos was a sneaky name. Red Sox market lets you play up, seventy defender can run. Now he's in the O's. Like, just not as good. No offense to the Oriol Faithful, but like you're talking about the Boston market. So I do think like conversely, I actually just picked up say what? Jaba: Yep. Boston market. A Boston market. Jheremy: No, yeah. I mean, I just ⁓ picked up a Cooper Fleming base auto. Like the Rays for who what they are on like the major league level, like their prospects sell really well. Like, so not necessarily a big market team by any means, but like their prospects sell really well. I don't know if that goes into the the way ⁓ people kinda just think of how they develop that they're gonna churn out stars, trade ⁓ eventually, do whatever. But they have a bunch of guys that sell really well and sell really well off the rip too. So I don't know what to make of that. That is kind of an interesting one with a smaller market with a huge like prospect market. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. And I I I think, you know, perfect raise example, Daniel Pierce, of course, he was a first rounder, but he didn't get off to I mean, he he wasn't playing badly, but he wasn't playing particularly well. That's kind of continued. He's been okay. And the price is kinda normalized and it's sitting around twenty bucks now for a base auto. But at release people were loving Daniel Pierce and he you know the stats were pretty pedestrian, the scouting reports were basically a Back of all trades, master of none, which is not a particularly exciting prospect from a Bowman perspective. And I think, you know, it does kind of remind me of something ⁓ you've said to me before, which is like, you know, people still say, ⁓ you know, don't trade with Tampa, you know, all all that when that's not really a thing anymore. it certainly used to be. And I I think it was interesting that you mentioned Milwaukee too. I mean I I I know some Brewers fans, you know, diehard fan base, but at the same time it's not like, you know Milwaukee's a large market and you have Chicago right there, obviously pulling a lot of fans. And I I think, you know, I'd love to see three or four years ago how these brewers guys were selling versus now now that they have a reputation of just being a factory, kind of what people still a bit think the Rays are. ⁓ I think people have obviously caught on to the brewers. I think people are all over it. But I do think it's funny that, you know, I wouldn't call them a small market team necessarily. But they're probably closer to that than a large market team. And the same goes for the Pirates. You know, Skeens basically revolutionized how we look at pitchers. Yeah. Like he he he made it cool to collect pitchers. Some people are still a little tepid on it, but you know, he he completely revitalized pitchers and Bowman. And then obviously Connor Griffin, who, you know, with his minor league season last year, I think he could have been playing in any market and probably set some records. Jheremy: I would agree there. The whole pitching market. Yeah. Jaba: But you know, we saw that's two Pittsburgh Pirates that basically had record breaking markets. So I I I think it's funny that obviously you want to look at market size, and I think teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, and then to a lesser degree, you know, Red Sox, Mets. ⁓ I don't know, if I forgot your favorite team. I apologize, everyone. But I I think it's interesting that you not only need to look at Jheremy: Right. Jaba: know the obvious market size, but I do think people really do harp on recent results and organizational reputation. And I think that while that is obviously something you should be doing, I do think it's interesting to say, ⁓ you know, everyone loves the guys that the Rays pumped out. Who who's the last you know before Camonero, who who would the Rays pumped out? Jheremy: Thousand percent. You want me to say the answer? Jaba: No well, no, I I kinda thought of it while I was Jheremy: Alright, we'll skip that one. We'll skip that answer. But like I mean, realistically, like the whole like perception of market can just be broken down to trade deadline. Where even like living in Massachusetts, both of us, like people were kind of on pins and needles with Franklin Arias. You heard that he was gonna get traded, thought he might get traded. His sales kind of flatlined, like they didn't peak and people were kind of like on their seats waiting to see if they need to hit the sell button. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: They held him, his stuff went up. Like I'm holding I holding. I I have a sa Sapphire first auto. And they were doing like they were s they were right around that two hundred mark. And then they crept to two fifty and they kind of crept down and then they held quiet like I I want to say like two, two ten. Now they're up to almost like three hundred. Like now on the horizon you can see him being the Red Sox starting shortstop in a not so distant future. So I do think like the the trade deadline will let you see where some things like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, opening. Jheremy: how they go up and down in terms of markets and what people think of just prospects. Andy Azukar has got his first autos coming out in Bowman Chrome. Obviously gonna be in a Red Sox uniform, but I just saw a tweet about his stats over the last day. Like that was like he he's like absurd, a ninety three average a average exit velo, like just like stupid numbers for Jaba: For sure. Yeah. I think I think it has like a two ten OPS plus over the last six weeks. It i it was more than just since the trade. It was like a s very, very serious Jheremy: Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like now that he's an O, like those probably just quite frankly aren't gonna command what they would have if he were still in the Red Sox system. So I think that was about ten minutes worth of us just saying market size matters, basically, to sum it up, where Jaba: Yeah. But also small markets come out of Jheremy: But also small markets could matter and Canadians matter because Blue Jays buy their stuff really well. Blue Jays fans. So at the end of the day, say what? Not He was a hot name at release too. Jaba: Yeah. Not not Piazenteen. Not Tim Piacentine. ⁓ yeah, I made some mistakes. But yeah, with that being said, I'm going to shift over to kind of our I I guess it's kind of like when a market I don't want to say a market is too much because it's not as much the market as much as, you know, a team is loaded like the Dodgers. Perfect example I wanna ask you about a guy I have bought a lot of is Charles Davilon, who Jheremy: Let's flip it. ⁓ Jaba: you know, second rounder, Canadian, out of Arkansas. He started the year well. ⁓ you know, nothing super crazy, but just a good solid outfielder. And in the last two months, he's just been laying waste to high end. ⁓ I know July he had like a twelve fifty OPS. August so far he has like an eleven fifty I mean, any other organization, he's in double A right now. Obviously the Dodgers have a glut of Jheremy: Idea. Jaba: big time outfield prospects. They have ⁓ at every position, which is unfortunate. But you know, I had kinda hoped with Zyhear Hope being traded that would open up a spot for him. But like how would you look at a guy like Charles Davalon right now? Because I'm a little worried that he's still in high A. Jheremy: Say that again. Yep. So like Like at the beginning of the year, like 'cause he's like you said, he's still in high A, and it's like, ⁓ he's doing what he should do. He's a college guy coming out of the SEC. He's smaller guy at five's nine, speed first, like performer, always had good bat to ball skills in Arkansas, didn't hit for a ton of juice. Then he jumped forward this year. He's got twenty one pumps on the year. But he's still twenty two in high A, so it's like Is this kind of like a smokescreen? Is it like a smokescreen? Jaba: He's an old twenty two, so Jheremy: Like no, 'cause we know he's a really good player with his track record in college. But like at a certain point you'd like to see him not spend the entire year at high A, but who who's their double A team off the top of your head, do you know? Tulsa. Well Jose Jose DePaul is there. Let's just look at their roster real quick. We're doing this in real time. Okay, so who whoever their third one is, like Jaba: It's DePala Sorota. It was DePala Sorota Hope. Jheremy: Is probably another top one hundred guy the way they've been going. I mean they have Kendall George there as well. Chris Newell, Kyle Nevin, and Cole Myers. So like there's your left center and right fielder with Kendall George being in the middle, I presume. ⁓ he might be hurt still, regardless. Like, that's just three guys on one team where I actually had DePala stuff pulled up as well. You you led with Davalon. I was gonna go to DePala. Like Jaba: Yeah, but he's her. Jheremy: Six foot three, one eighty five, twenty one in double A, hitting three fourteen this year with ⁓ just under a thousand OPS, twenty four pumps, right? Like, everything there, huge market, like what would you say his last base raw base auto sale was? This is twenty twenty three where like you don't see it as often either, 'cause I think Jaba: I would guess one hundred fifty. Jheremy: One seventy five. So see, I would have expected it to be more 'cause Hosway do ⁓ because Jesus Made's are like pushing four hundred. And I think there's like a conversation to be had that DePala could be up there in the top two ish, top three prospects in all the baseball. And for just I I I guess when you look at it in that sake of what the autos are and the difference, like maybe it just is that modes are ridiculously high and DePala's actually well priced. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: But I feel like it should be higher. I just don't know if people are like kind of on pins and needles with the Dodgers. Like Zire Hope's market, I'm guessing, probably went down. Like Jaba: Yeah. I wants to go. pull it up on Prospect Pulse. Jheremy: Like his most recent base just did forty one bucks, August twentieth. Like I don't know when the trade deadline is, I'm just s s swiping back and there's a sixty dollar base auto. Jaba: In late July but before the deadline, he was firmly in the mid fifties. Jheremy: Okay, so it actually hasn't hit that hard. Jaba: Yeah, I mean it's gone down a bit, but it hasn't been disastrous, but it's down. Jheremy: Down fifteen, twenty bucks, give or take, roughly. Depending on the sale. I mean you got one the other day at thirty eight on best offer. Jaba: Then you look at like I mean it's like they got Sorota in double A. He's twenty three. He's turning twenty four next June. I mean he's no he's no spring chicken. And in double A, he's Sorota has a OPS over a thousand again this year. Career Minor League OPS over a thousand. ⁓ acquired for Gavin Locks, which is awesome. Thanks, Reds. I mean Jheremy: Yeah. You got James Tibbs, like Yeah. Jaba: Davlon sharing the outfield with Cantero. It's like does Cantero leapfrog Davlon in the internal pecking order and does he go up first? If there's one spot, it it's like there's so much Yeah. Jheremy: Right. Yeah, Chin Sinco. Like I and I know we're just focusing kind of on the Dodgers. They're Jaba: Jaron Elkins is having a nice year. Jaron Elkins has a nine sixty five OPS. I mean he he doesn't have the name value, but like again, that's just a random twenty one year old outfielder that has a mid nine hundreds OPS in their system. Jheremy: Yeah. Zach Earhart had a nice start to the year. Like, you just go up and down and it's kinda wild. Like the depth they have. I mean, three of their top six prospects are outfielders. With Emile Morales and Christian Zazueta being the two non outfielders. And I know, like we said, this is all Dodgers talk so far, but like they're the most obvious one. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, 'cause I mean Morales is super hot. Chase Harlan blew up for a little bit there. I mean I mean Jheremy: Yep. Chase Harlan was far too cheap for far too long. Jaba: Yeah, no, I think he's hurt and nobody wants him. But Jheremy: Well like I I just looked through a handful of cards, like Landon Vitterick kind of had some prospect juice to him and then he got traded. Jaba: Well, he he was terrible though. Jheremy: to open the year wasn't the hottest, not the not the greatest start to the year. Jaba: ⁓ yeah, how how's how's that G yeah, he's Jheremy: But I mean, to to bring it back in and reel us back in from just going off the rails, I do think there is some stuff there like depth. Like what about the White Sox? They have Rock Chalowski coming up, they Billy Carlson, Caleb Bonimer's probably a third baseman slash left fielder. Sam Antonacci, Colson Montgomery's already at short. Miguel Vargas is an all star at wherever he's playing now. Like at a certain point too Yeah. Like there's just so many spots. Jaba: Oof. And there's like Landon Tomey now in the like I I mean you can look at both sides of kind of the premier crop. You know, you look at the major league level and these premier guys are blocked and you look below them and there's more reinforcements coming. It's Jheremy: Right. And I do think like The MLB draft is kind of it's not ever gonna be at like drafting for need, like the NFL. Because no none of these kids coming out of college are plug and play. But I think I maybe even said it here before, I think that gap between like college, like ⁓ the power forwards and some of the mid majors even to Pro Ball is very much shrunk. So I think like at a certain point, like yeah, Rock Chalowski will be in the big leagues within a year, I would imagine, right? Like probably safe to say. not a guarantee, but Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: But and then you have Billy in the wings. Jaba: Yeah, i i if he's healthy it would be a serious surprise if he wasn't. Jheremy: I mean Colson's ⁓ Colson's got almost thirty jacks on the year, if not, like just I don't know. It it plays into it at a certain point, but then again, you couldn't conversely have a kid go from like a smaller market. I I don't even know. That would just be rambling. Like you see it like with your Mets, right? Like Billy Emicks stuff went like bonkers. A million Petray, all of them went bonkers after they got traded. Jaba: Yeah. Not Staffara, Ameck. Even Aiden Smith, yeah, it Jheremy: It's like it holds in the flip side as well. But like you you can't go buying prospects hoping they get traded. So to make margin. Jaba: Yeah. So I I think to wrap up this conversation, I guess the main takeaway here is that this is another part of Bowman where there is no dead set, you know, guide where it's like, okay, you know, you need to look at it this way or that way. I think that it's one of those topics where you need to be aware of how these things influence markets. ⁓ and even though there's no Jheremy: Yeah. Yep. Do what it is. Jaba: you know, firm conclusion of a set in stone, you know, we're giving you the the key here. I do think it's important to have that nuance and build it into your decision making and also your risk tolerance because sometimes you'll see people making fairly blind decisions and you know you can get hurt down the road for it. So you need to look at these things, not only, you know, looking at the prospect and if you believe in the prospect, but you do need to take Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: things like market, organizational depth, all of the developmental history, you know, I I I think those are all things you need to take into account. And while there's no tried and true way of you know, there's no formula for it, it is just something that if you're gonna be serious about this, you know, you need to be cognizant of. Jeremy, you got any any final thoughts? Jheremy: That's a good way to wrap it. No, I think I think we've set our I think we've set our piece on it and not to ramble too long. This is a nice kind of wrap it up in twenty minute quick episode. ⁓ again, just buy the prospects you like. Hopefully it all works out at the end of the day. Markets shift, players shift, things happen. At the end of the day, if you're buying guys you believe in, hopefully others believe in them too and you can make some money along the way. Jaba: Yep. Long as you're doing that and not buying too much of guys you believe in where you're putting yourself in a hole. Always be, you know, smart and cognizant of, you know, your guardrails limits. But Yeah, okay. So that wraps up this ⁓ I guess this is more of a module than an episode. I'm not really sure it matters. But as always, ⁓ this is Jabbo Cards and ⁓ Jeremy JGB underscore cards underscore signing off. Thank you all for listening and let's go, Mets. Alright, I marked it there. Jheremy: Yeah. Feel like we rambled, but there there there's only so much you can talk about on that topic. Like Jaba: Yeah. I mean I think if people wanna hear about it, I think it's another one where it's like us bringing up examples is more useful than just like trying to sound like we know everything. I think people ⁓ alright, what ⁓ what y you wanna bang out one more? Jheremy: Agree. Right. Yeah. What do we want to do it on? Let's see what the guy who sent me a whole list of things. What do we wanna do Do we wanna do one on like the the smaller guys that we bought into cheap because we did our own digging and didn't let the market dictate and tell us who to buy? Like your Jake Monroe. Jaba: I feel like I would wanna re s like I feel like I would wanna like l make more notes on that before I did that. Just so I sound educated. Jheremy: That's fine. I was just thinking like I mean you could s you could talk I don't know if you were buying Sad BL cheap, but like I bought some Trevor Cohen and I kinda feel like he doesn't get enough love for what he is. Double A twenty two hitting two ninety nine. Like like a lot of like Sam Antonaci to him. Jaba: He's in double A now, I know. Rack is Kane Kepley, a lot of Trevor Cohen, and a lot of Sam Anthony. Jheremy: Easy now. Jaba: Do have that list in front of ya? The topics that guy sent you? Jheremy: Of what? ⁓ let me pull it up. Yeah. Jaba: Bob's ten worst picks. We scrubbed his entire Twitter to find Jheremy: Say what? Jaba: I said Bob's top ten worst picks. So we scrubbed his entire Jheremy: Yeah. That's what we should do. Alright, so this guy said buy, sell, hold, five guys of each, you each of you. Different levels, ages, not for now. What's next for Bowman releases? No. End of season transition into off season plans? Could be a fun one. Playoff impact on hobby. PSA impact on market. The oversaturation Jaba: Yep. Jheremy: Saturation of Waldschmidt and interesting because it just happened with Culpepper, small market teams versus big market teams, what to look out for. First half versus second half breakouts. The only one I think we could really rip off the cuff is playoff impact on hobby and end of season transition into off season plans. Like kind of without thinking. What you think? Like first half second half breakouts. Jaba: Yeah. I I like the idea of I would say either PSA impacts or talking about transitioning to the off season kinda batting up. Alright. Jheremy: Let's do the off season. Only 'cause I I have nothing to add on the PSA right now. Jaba: Yeah, I I I think that's another one that would be better served if we prepared. All right. Jheremy: Had to cut some stuff. Jaba: Alright, I'm going to mark it and then I'm just gonna launch into it. Hey everybody, welcome back to the Scout and Speculator Podcast brought to you by ProspectPulsev1.com. The best resource for collecting, investing, anything you could imagine that involves Bowman baseball cards, it is the spot for you. It has all kinds of market data, ⁓ live eBay listings with comps, player stats, deep dives. If you're a serious Bowman collector, ⁓ You're really doing yourself a disservice if you are not subscribed to Prospect Pulse. I am one of your two co-hosts, ⁓ Jabba, also known as Jabba Cards on Instagram, whatnot, eBay. It's Jabba Cards on IG. ⁓ have to trick them a little bit there. And I am joined by my co-host, Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, and most importantly known as JGB underscore. Jheremy: That's many. Jaba: cards underscore. Make sure to add that second underscore people. It matters. So today Jeremy, what is it that we are going to talk about? Jheremy: Please. Yes. Our friend over on Instagram, LC3Cards, runs a great show on whatnot, lots of good stuff, lots of knowledge. Sent us a list of things that he thinks we should write about, talk about, and we decided to go with one of his topics of our plans heading into the offseason with Bowman. Bowman is slowly winding down. The minor league season is ending. We've seen some players transition from the DSL. Into the complex, seen some guys get promoted, seen a little bit of everything so far. Eventually the season is going to come to an end. So with that, what steps? What's next? What can still impact the market? Obviously the biggest thing right away will be the AFL. We're gonna see. Some big jumps, I imagine, on player markets. I'm thinking about Esmerlin Valdez right off the rip from what he did last year. Went from your dollar box up to what 70, 80, 90 dollars. Then he had his then he had his lull, then he just went on a historic run in the big league, spiked right back up. With the AFL though, I think there's some time, some opportunity to make money. I don't think it's necessarily a bad time to get out. Jaba: He was way up there. Jheremy: Because you have a much more condensed like microcosm of things where having all the different levels of baseball, it's hard to keep track. Whereas now with the AFL, you have pipeline, you have all the people, all the fantasy guys on Twitter kind of looking at just the AFL, and it attracts more eyes. All of a sudden Jonathan Santucci does something, his market's gonna go see a nice uptick, right? So that's a lot of rambling from me right away. Jaba: Right. Jheremy: That's kind of my th that's just my get into the off season talks. I do have a plan for it past AFL that we can talk into, but I don't want to take up all the time, so it's yours. Jaba: yeah, so I think first off, for people that are big baseball fans but not quite as ⁓ insane to the degree that we are, when is roughly give me a timeline ⁓ for our listeners on AFL dates, if you have it off the top of your head. Jheremy: God. I have no idea. No earthly idea. Let's look. We'll look in this together. Because when you don't know something, we have a great machine called Google. And it will tell you everything you need to know. Jaba: Good. Jheremy: Except when I'm put on the spot. I don't know. Wha you really you really put me in a a dizzy. Jaba: I I just kinda I I I just kinda thought you would know. I mean I think of it as being like November. Jheremy: Not even I doubt it's even that early, honestly. Jaba: Let's see, everyone. We're we're all gonna learn together. Jheremy: 'Cause you ⁓ so it all right, here we go. It opens October third and fourth. So you're a full month off. And November felt too late. Like arms would should be shut down by then. So Jaba: Now that Appears that it ends on November four ended on November fourteenth last year, so yeah. Happy birthday. Twenty two never looked so good. Jheremy: My birthday. Thank you. Damn straight. Good thing we're an audio only podcast. ⁓ all right, so there it is. Beginning of October's not to say there's not gonna be market shifts from now until then, but that's like the next like obvious one. So Jaba: Yep. So for people again who might not be super familiar with the Arizona Fall League, they play just shy of 30 games. ⁓ there's six teams. I know that teams send ⁓ you know kind of clusters of guys. Every team probably sends like three to five guys. They all do report to the same team. I don't know how they're dispersed, but you know, all the Mets guys will go to team A. I don't know how Team A is Jheremy: Like myself. Jaba: is constructed, but you know, if you're a fan of an organization, ⁓ all the guys from your organization will be on one AFL team. But they play like thirty games at Arizona Complex ⁓ stadiums, which I do know is strongly believed to be a hitter friendly environment. And I know that last year the big debate with this Marilyn Valdez going nuts there, everyone was kind of saying, Okay, well he's a upper minors bat playing in a hitter friendly league, you know Jheremy: Very much now. Jaba: Should I really care? Should I buy in? And for me, I said, you know what, this does sound too good to be true. I did not buy in and I regret it. So I think one of my lessons is, you know, not to be stupid with AFL performance, you know, don't go completely nuts. But if a guy's hitting really well, if a guy's performing really well, it it's not meaningless either. If it was meaningless, you know, they wouldn't have it. So I think it's ⁓ a bit of a Goldilocks situation where you don't want to put Jheremy: Got a piece or two. Right. Jaba: Too much weight into AFL results, but also don't do what I did with his Maryland Valdez last year and basically say ⁓ doesn't matter because I hand waved that and I regret it deeply. And I think that AFL is a great spot. You know, it's a lot of guy a lot of the pitchers, it's guys that missed, you know, serious time during the year. Obviously, they are healthy at the time they're there, but it's kind of guys making up innings almost, or some guys who just didn't necessarily hit innings limits. you know, I could say that means that the quality of pitching is lower, which means, you know, the hitting results are less meaningful, but I'm not gonna put us in a total pretzel. but yeah, I I mean that that kind of sums up the AFL. I don't know if you have anything left to say on that. Jheremy: No. I mean in a nutshell, right? Like in a nutshell, I would say. Like that's not to detract from what guys do there offensively, obviously. Because they do do some really good things and if nothing else, use it as like a Alright, I'm not gonna buy him now because the hype's there, but go and like lock the name in your brain, give it two months into the off season and see if his prices have kind of come back to earth. Then be like, Well I really I really like that swing, plus he did this, this and this during the regular season, or like it wasn't exemplified so in such a big way. Then go back and get it. Like I I I will definitely write down names and be like, all right, like let's kinda track this ki so to speak and just see what it does and then come back to it. Jaba: Yeah. I think and you know, especially for people such as ourselves who, you know, obviously we love all baseball, but I think, you know, as we head into October there will be a void kind of with the amount of time we spend checking minor league box scores, all that stuff. It is nice to kind of segue immediately into the AFL for six weeks, and I do think that there are enough like minded people out there where, you know, the car market will not die. I I know a ⁓ lot of people have been asking me, you know, pretty worried, you know, are you gonna sell everything before the offseason before it tanks? I don't really think that the Bowman market tanks. I I think that generally speaking it dips a little bit. I think that the volume of deals slows down, but I don't think that prices necessarily drop that much. you know you look at last year guys like Caleb Bonimer just like tripled over the offseason. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: Without doing anything. I don't think he played in the AFL. I mean, I know I bought a gold PSA 10 auto of his in November for 500, sold it for like 1200 in December. By spring training, it was like over two grand. you know, back to our 2x rule. no regrets. But you know, I think if you're gonna say, okay, I'm just gonna sell a bunch of my Bowman in September, and then in February when Bowman Draft is out. I'll start, you know, dusting things off and looking again. I think you are putting yourself behind the eight ball pretty severely. you know, like I said, I think the intensity slows down a little bit, but I don't think that it's, you know, this you know, market crash either. What ⁓ what are your kind of thoughts on that? Jheremy: Yeah, I last year was my first like full off season and people are like, Yeah, you you you can get some really good deals so I'm like, Sweet, like I'll spend some money. And then it was like ⁓ it like went down Jaba: Yeah. Same for me. Where are the deals? Jheremy: It like went down five or ten bucks. It's like, okay, so I do think you're not gonna see like you're not gonna get those random pops of like Nolan Schubert all of a sudden, like jolting up in price because he had a hot week or something, you know. ⁓ obviously there's nothing for players, but the way you were buying Caleb Bonomer, I also bought an orange wave Caleb Bonomer, I think, at the time for like two hundred bucks raw. Jaba: Jesus. Jheremy: But I also bought a bunch of Bryce Raynor, like ready, like 'cause he dipped, he was hurt, missed the off season. It's like, all right, he's gonna come back. He ha he checks everything you want. And I was buying them pretty cheap. Like you could get base autos forty, fifty bucks. By the time the season actually came, before he even took a singular swing, those were a hundred dollar base autos, like unload all of them. And that kind of goes into what I was gonna talk about for some off season plans, and honestly, it's almost ⁓ Jaba: Real. Jheremy: looking at some of the guys who are hurt haven't been in the public eye for a little bit. one is Travis Socora. Like he was healthy, he's a top three pitching prospect in all of baseball. I looked the other day and you could s some people like could just bend like base autos at thirty bucks. Before he got hurt, I know they were approaching triple digits. Not saying go out and buy all of them right now. Like let's like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Jheremy: But he was a guy who I I did actively target to buy after he got hurt because the talent is so good. And I'm sure if I thought of more, there's more guys who like are hurt now heading into the offseason that are probably pretty decent buys or buying the quote unquote next wave of guys who which I think we could do a whole episode on. But guys for next year of like your Landon Harmons who could pop, your land ⁓ Aiden West, your Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: the other name I had Matthew Fisher even. I don't think he's thrown a ton, hasn't been sharp when he has, but like he got paid out of high school last year. Super athletic. Still think there's something there. ⁓ so if you can start finding color of certain guys, I don't know. No real plan, but at the same time like gonna target specific guys. ⁓ he's actually thrown pretty well. Three seven over forty-eight innings, sixty Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Jheremy: Strikeouts twenty years old in single A and he's huge and athletic. Like we like all of that. So he's just not in the public eye. Like what about you? What are you doing? What are the thoughts? Let me write with you two. Jaba: yeah, I mean I think so what I have been doing, even though PSA, you know, has a few days ago is at eighty bucks with a call it two month turnaround time, I had a pile of cards that were over, you know, in my mind, a value where I could justify sending it and so long as I got a few tens, you know, I'd be ⁓ in a good spot. they just changed it to three to four months. So I'm Jheremy: I saw that upwards of eighty working days. Jaba: Yeah, so I had a ⁓ I had an order due back next Tuesday and I refreshed it yesterday and now it's d due back in the middle of October. Which feels illegal. I'm sure it's underwritten into, you know, the submission language. Whatever, not a PSA episode. If it was, you know, it would probably get us thrown off the air, at least myself. But Jheremy: ⁓ So Jaba: Yeah, so I mean the plan was to kinda send all of my holds that looked good and could justify the cost to PSA and then kind of spring into action opportunistically from there. I think I might still do the PSA thing just because in the past when they've messed with things, my immediate thought is always, ⁓ well, I should have sent it in at that last level before this new change and like every month it just gets worse. So I I think at a certain point it's just like Jheremy: Right. Jaba: You know, just keep sending it because it's only gonna get worse. so I'm gonna have to you know, look into my PSA strategy and I think we will have at least one good episode kind of on that. ⁓ not only what's going on with PSA in the market, but kind of how we submit to PSA, what we look for, all that. but yeah. I think it's just like you said, looking at guys that kind of flew under the radar this year. Maybe it's like the, you know, second, third, fourth round prep guys from twenty five draft who, you know, just played a little bit in the complex this year, missed time with injury. ⁓ Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: ⁓ you know, didn't play badly, but just don't have that much of a body of work. I think looking into those guys is definitely at the top of my priority list. I think looking at guys who are injured, you said Travis Socora, who when he went down, he was maybe the best pitching prospect in baseball. He was certainly you know, last year it was kind of Tongue, ⁓ Thomas White and Socora. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: And I believe he had Tommy John with the way Tommy John is these days. Rest in peace, Tommy John, by the way. you know, I don't think that there's any reason to think that he will skip a beat and not continue to be that dominant pitcher. You can correct me if that's a stupid statement. Jheremy: No. I mean he's already back to throwing and looks good. Like not a hundred percent ramped up on the mountain, but he's damn near close and I think all of a sudden he's gonna come out, throw, be touching triple digits and guys are gonna be like, ⁓ I forgot about him Like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. I mean hi his market's cut in half. I've been buying refractors for like forty to fifty dollars. I I Jheremy: Which is just wild 'cause base were doing more than that when he was healthy. Jaba: Like those will be a hundred dollars. Like in March so long as he is healthy for spring training. so, you know, I would say banking those guys, you know, another name you said like Bryce Raynor, he missed, you know, not all of his first season, but I mean, when did he go down? Like mid May or 'cause I mean he he missed the bulk of the year. ⁓ you know, kinda looking at guys like that, another guy that you mentioned that I like a lot, Aiden West. He was, you know, playing on and off this year when he did play, the results were quite good, but just Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: again, not that large of a body of work. So I think looking into those guys and, you know, from there I think, like you said I agree, you know, that was my first off season last year and everyone's like, ⁓ well, you know, there's gonna be so many good deals. If there are, you know, I'd love to hear where they were. I mean, like you said, guys, you know, uniformly across the board probably went down, I don't know, ten to twenty percent. Nothing where it's like, Okay, I gotta jump on that. Jheremy: Yeah. Nothing else at all. Right. Jaba: Which I think, you know, as much as I would love to get some good deals, I think that that is a great sign for the Bowman market and a testament to you know, its feasibility as an actual, you know, investment vehicle moving forward. I think that it has ditched the seasonality and kind of emerged as something that is a, you know, stable asset, so to speak. But I think, you know, like you said, just keep an eye out for a loose random color that Jheremy: Right. Jaba: pops up of those guys you like, you know, just kind of monitoring eBay. Maybe you don't spend as much time as you do every day on it, but you know, still spend some time. You know, stay on top of things, read the news. You know, injuries happen in training or, you know, video comes out of a guy with a completely overhauled swing and you think, okay, well that guy's swing was ugly before. I don't really know what I'm looking at, but that seems like a good, you know, like Bryce Raynor. You know, I know you've said his swing was really ugly. I saw a Twitter video the other day that he's cleaning it up. So it's like stuff like that where it's like just and I think that anybody listening to this like does love the game of baseball and me saying all this probably isn't gonna matter because you're already going to be doing all of this. but yeah, I I would say maybe if it's your first offseason, I would say temper expectations for what deals are going to show up, but at the same same time you know just keep monitoring keep tabs on your guys and kind of make a game plan for heading into next year you know take take the good and the bad from this past year and learn from it and try to kind of refine your approach figure out your little kind of carved out corner of the market figure out what you're good at what you're not so good at and then going into next year figure out how you can attack what you're good at while minimizing your downside But Jheremy: Yep. Well said. And there is no right or wrong, again, as we do it. Yeah, as as seems to be the conclusion and wrap up for all of it, but I do think I will target some of those next tier names, so to speak. I think Cooper Fleming's gonna blow up next year, right? Like seems to be like last year I was kind of on the Nathan Flewelling pre blow up train. Maybe he follows suit Cooper Fleming, you know? Jaba: Thank you. Has Olive. Jheremy: ⁓ could be a guy that Jaba: ⁓ flooming's not that far behind fluelling prices now. Jheremy: No, but like when you look at his base autos only being like thirty ish bucks, like that's not bad. You could also I I d I don't 'cause I don't dip my toes into the big kid pools, but like you could start speculating like who's gonna be your next like number one or your next top three guys, like that might really explode in market value. Like, Made might debut maybe next year. Maybe. Like Jaba: Probably. Jheremy: At a certain point there'll be another new number one and like who do you want to put your money into? Like, do you believe they have number one upside? Like carrying that number one tag is a way to really like enhance your value, obviously. Like no shit, right? Like that seems pretty obvious. You you're the best, your prices go up. But like you can kind of try to speculate that and I think there's something to be said there, but for every time you hit it right, you're probably not gonna hit it right. ⁓ well Jaba: For sure. Jheremy: not gonna hit it right more often than not. But something. I know people talk about Boswar right now as being like a potential number one guy. Like Jaba: That's fine. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe may may maybe this winter one thing we can dig into is, you know, we can take a few picks of, you know, looking a year ahead, two years ahead, what we think, you know, top three, top five is gonna look like. ⁓ it will probably ⁓ age terribly, but I think that that will be a a a fun a fun exercise regardless. And yeah, I mean just to wrap up here, I think as Jeremy said, as always, the main takeaway is there's not really a right or wrong way to do it and that's why it's such Jheremy: Yeah. Horrible. Almost a show that Jaba: great hobby because you can do it as much or as little as you enjoy, you can do it however you want, and I think that that is what keeps us all coming back. But I do think you know kind of things we were saying are useful for kind of setting expectations, what to you know, what to look out for, ⁓ things of that nature. And ⁓ yeah, with that being said, you got anything ⁓ left for the people out there, the ⁓ really sick souls still listening? Jheremy: Yeah, go match. Jaba: Go Mets, baby. Alright. Again, Jabba cards and JGB underscore cards underscore. Signing off once again has brought to you by Prospect Pulse. Thank you all and thank you for listening. Goodbye. Jheremy: Mm.