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Felix Prehn - The $90 Billion BUY Warning! + Stock Market News 13 December 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: In the next couple of minutes, I want to run you through the $90 billion buy warning.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: It could be a much bigger buy warning, in fact.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through the Santa rally, how likely it's going to happen, and also some cautious words about what to avoid in the next week or two, and then a bunch of stuff that's just going to the moon and how we should therefore possibly be allocating our funds to make the most of the last few days of 2024, a glorious year for investing.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So let's jump straight into it.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Who wants to make some money today?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Put a smiley or a one in the chat and let me know if that's what you're here for.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: If you want to lose money, also let me know in the chat.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we've got one more push here, and that is the flow of funds.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: So there is a seasonality to how money flows into the stock market every single year and if we go back the data almost 100 years here since 1928, we is here right, that is us right now, and I'm seeing a lot of ones, a lot of smileys.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: It seems everybody wants to make some money here, even the Germans who are writing.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Abdullah wants to make a lot of money with about 10 ones.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I like that, terry, I like all your smileys.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: And what is the chart showing you?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Well, we would expect us to go about give or take 2% higher, and that doesn't sound like a lot.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: But you think about the market.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Overall, that is quite a lot, and then we'll get into in a moment what will actually go up a lot more and what will not go up, because that's a really important distinction.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: But from a seasonality point of view, we should be having a very, very nice end to the year.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: All right, brilliant.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: So let's then be a little careful.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: So there is one date that I want you to be aware of in the next coming weeks, and that is just before Christmas.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Just before Santa is going to land his sleigh on your roof.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Around about the 24th, buybacks fizzle out.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say end here.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit of an exaggeration, but as we go into the earnings season majorly, we've got some big earnings to talk about as well Adobe and Broadcom two very opposite stories there, one's up 12%, one's down 12%.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: But when the buybacks end, there is a slight risk, just before Christmas, that the party might slow down a little bit.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So that's just a date I want you to have in your mind as one where I wouldn't be surprised to get a little pre-Christmas dip here.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So note that date.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Basically, just before Christmas, the 24th Mark, give the showmaster some likes before he starts complaining.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, you know, I'm German, we complain a lot.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: That's the way it works.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: All right, let's look at this here, because if you listen to this and put that into the framework of all the money flowing into the market, the AI spending frenzy looks like it still has some ways to go.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: This is from Bloomberg.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: You know the people, the miseries run by Bloomberg.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Broadcom said it expects 65% growth in A product sales this quarter and that the potential market for AI components may reach 90 billion by 2027, which is extraordinary.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So, basically, you know, going to the moon here.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So very, very positive.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: And to bring us to our title, which is what I put in this video title, which is, you know, the 90 billion dollars, where is it coming from?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Well, right now.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Where is it coming from?
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Well, right now, all the money, literally, there are 13 trillion in US stocks right now and the inflows we had in 2024 were 388 billion into stocks, right?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: This here is stocks.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: If I could spell stocks, you see, bankers can't even spell a five-letter word, is it?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: A six-letter word Can't count either, and we're not that smart.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Honest Money markets, which is basically what it's basically cash, that's pretty much what that is.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: We had 992 billion flow in there, so almost a trillion dollars went into money market funds and that and that's now $9 trillion.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: If just 1% of that money decides that earning 4% interest rate sucks, when the market's just gone up 30% this year and we're expecting another wonderful year in 2025, if just 1% of that money makes its way into stocks, that would be $90 billion, which is a bucket load of money.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Considering we did $388 billion for the whole of 2024, right.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: But if it's 2% or 3% or 4%, right.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: We could be doubling the amount of money that flows into the market next year compared to this year.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: And we went up 30% this year, right.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So to me, this is the number to watch.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Money market funds don't move that quickly.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: They're a little bit slow and stagnant, which is why I'm looking at very low numbers here just 1%.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So that's important to know.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Feel free to take a screenshot of this and that way, you can show somebody and actually explain this to them why this is super, super important.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: But here is what I want you to remember the market isn't an equal thing.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Not everything goes up the same way, and this year and the last year, only 31% of companies, so only 31% of stocks, beat the market, beat the market, and what does that mean?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Almost 70% of companies underperformed this year.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean for you?
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Buy and hold index funds buyers, which is what everybody always tells us to do.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Right, buy the index funds, says Warren Buffett.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: And then he doesn't.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, he has a little bit in the index fund, but basically he doesn't.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Most investors don't buy index funds because they understand this.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: They understand that 70% of stocks are underperforming the markets.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: 70% are basically miseries.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Well, what does it say to you?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Think about that.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: That say to you Think about that.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: What happens when you buy and hold losers?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So if you buy the index, the index is made up of this 70% losers and 30% winners.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So do you want to hold the losers?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Is that what you want to do?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: You want to own the losers?
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Is that?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Is that the intention?
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Doesn't really make a lot of sense, wouldn't it?
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be nice if we could buy mostly winners, maybe 50, maybe 70?
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Well, if you could swap this around, wouldn't that be nice?
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Imagine how better, much better, your returns would be.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So how do you do that?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Well, you have to learn how to spot winners, and you might think it's impossible.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Nobody can do it.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Well, traders have been doing it for about five decades and they've used similar sort of rules.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Over the last five decades They've changed slightly as the market sort of changed and gotten a lot faster and so on.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: But, as Scott says, the winners have to win a lot harder.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: If you hold 70% losers, right, you're basically like a welfare state where the top 30% have to pay for the losers and then themselves.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So to me, the whole index fund investing thing is better than not investing.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: I mean no argument there, right, it's a is better than not investing.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: I mean no argument there, right, it's a million times better than not investing.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But what's a million times better than the index fund?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Well, it's being mostly in winners.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So how do you spot winners?
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Well, I think my friend Fox here already shared it with you there's a link in the top of the description, in the top of the chat, and that leads you here Because if you actually watch this masterclass it takes 30 minutes long and you actually write down the four rules that I give you, take some screenshots, you can rewatch it, you can move the timeline along and watch the key parts again and again, and then you actually implement that.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: What's going to happen?
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Well, according to the many, many, many, many people who messaged me, it's going to do something tremendous to your returns.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: That's what it's doing to mine.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know we have these massive winners again and again and again, and that's how we make a lot more money.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: So we are no longer bag holders and we no longer own 70% losing stocks, which is just a horrible thing to accept.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Like, yeah, I'm going to buy.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: You know, buy shit 70% of the time, right.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: That's worse than being wrong.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: 50-50, right?
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, most people would think it's a coin toss.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: If you have zero knowledge, I think you can turn it upside down.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I think you can buy winners easily, 70% of the time.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: That's my humble opinion, so you might want to check that out.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: In fact, if you want to leave this stream right now and just go to felixfriendsorg slash, get free.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: I'd be super happy.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Because it's better to learn skills than to learn news.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: News is irrelevant unless you have the skills to apply them.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So check it out, my friends.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: And here is a nice example.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Who here wants to own healthcare?
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Here's a chart.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: This is the healthcare sector.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: You know all the fat loss drugs and everything else.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Who a chart?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: This is the healthcare sector.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: You know all the fat loss drugs and everything else.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Who wants to own this?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Anybody want to own this.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: If you say yes, I want to own it, put a one in the chat.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: If you don't want to own this, put a two in the chat.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Let's see how we're all feeling about the healthcare sector right now.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Who wants to own healthcare?
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Daniel says up 50% in the last 90 days, mostly due to Felix and the masterclass.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Daniel, nothing makes me happier than you saying that, and you should take all the credit, my friend, because you are the one who did it right.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I can give you some tools and knowledge, but you are the one who's actually implementing it.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: That's what's making the difference here.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, we got mostly mostly twos here.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Simon wants to own it, but pretty much everybody else wants to buy better things.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Daniel, rfk that's the underlying reason for it.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Rfk Jr is destroying healthcare, finally, right, so I actually had a trade on in healthcare and where did we exit?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: I don't remember exactly, but I would imagine it would have been here in yeah, either here or there, because that would have been our rule.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: So we would have drawn a trend line here which is a little fat here, and then when we fall below that trend line, you know, you see, these points here, those ones we would have exited.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: We might have also exited below the 50-day moving average line and I remember I lost a little bit of money on that and I was a bit annoyed and then I thought, ah, RFK, I kind of forgot that connection and was that a good call?
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we got out at about 153.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: We're trading at 141 now.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So you know, 7, 8% lower and there's a good probability it's going to go back into the 130s.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's going to go even lower.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So don't be that backholder, because it sucks to be that backholder.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: And really, if you look at that chart and you know it's going down pretty significantly, and then you look at this here, and this is data from Goldman Sachs, which says Inflows have been huge.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Us equities locked one hundred eighty six billion dollars worth of inflows over the last nine weeks, the largest inflow on record.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: We've never had more money pour into stocks than in the last nine weeks.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Yet there are still sectors, there are still stocks that are losing and most people own them because they think you should buy and hold forever.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: And if your horizon to get rich is 30 years, great, it works.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: It works.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: You just keep putting money into it, you keep compounding, you keep buying the S&P.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: It'll work.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: You have no further interest.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: You have no further time.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Go for it, right, it's much, much better than not investing.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: But you will buy 70% losers and 30% winners, and my question to you is why make life so freaking difficult?
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: It's very, very rare that you decide to buy 70% losers and 30% winners, so has that been helpful?
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Has that been helpful to actually understand a little bit more why this is a stock picker's paradise and has been for the last two years?
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: I mean it always is, but the last two years it's particularly strong because we've had this massive, massive gain in some stocks and only about 30% of the stocks are actually outperforming.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Hey, if that's helpful, put a thumbs up in the chat.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: So I know it makes sense.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: If it makes some sense to you what I just said, just some sense.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be necessarily 100%.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Put a thumbs up in the chat and I will understand that you've understood it, and we can move on and look at some of our favorite stocks here and so on.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Darren, go take a nap.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: What's going on here?
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: But a hostility in the chat?
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: If you want to do, go watch that masterclass as well.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: There is a link in the description.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: There's also a link at the top of the live chat thanks to a fox here.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Uh, terry, okay, five thumbs up.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: That means you paid attention.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Samuel, billy, logan, christopher Skitties, dave.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, you guys, it's making sense for you.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Love that.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Judith.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Yep, sydney as well.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm getting a lot of thumbs up here, which is brilliant.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, love to see that.