Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 169 - 11/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 169 - 11/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 169 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting Podcast. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
0:32
What's going on everyone? Happy Friday.
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The work week is coming to an end.
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We have a huge weekend of betting on tap here guys, and we
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have a lot to get to when it comes to today's podcast.
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Every Friday is a big podcast day because wrapping up the work
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week, but more importantly, we're finalizing our final best
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bet card for the weekend. So I have for you today, guys,
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only a three pack for tonight. 2 college football plays, one
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college basketball play that happens to be one of my favorite
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system matches. And then also we have for the
1:01
weekend, one UFC play biting in the arena, but a big card in pro
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and college football, five NFL bets, including a couple that
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I've added here, one that I wish that I bet a little bit earlier,
1:13
but then also for college football plays for this weekend.
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We haven't talked a ton of college football for Saturday,
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but I'm looking at a couple a couple dogs hoping that they can
1:21
bark and then a very interesting reverse line move on a favorite.
1:25
So I'm going to unveil it all today on a big episode 169 of
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the ASG pod powered by rhythm. Now, after dishing out again,
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we're going to talk about today. We got to talk about last night
1:36
because I tell you what guys, there are nights, days, whatever
1:40
you want to call it in sports betting where you get so
1:43
frustrated that you almost just, you know, flip out, throw your,
1:48
throw your remote through the TV, smash a window.
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Obviously I've learned as I've gotten older not to do that.
1:53
But boy was last night frustrating.
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And let me just give you a couple reasons why it was so
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frustrating. So it's frustrating because we
1:59
went one in 5 -, 4.1 units. Obviously a bad night, but was
2:04
most annoying one. We did get the Browns sharpest
2:07
attack everyone playing Pittsburgh with the line fall to
2:10
Cleveland plus 3 1/2. They able they able to win the
2:12
game outright. But I'm going to give you some
2:15
of the worst bad beats and I know we don't want to go over it
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because if you're on them with me last night, it was as bad as
2:20
it gets. And also all three of these
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losses happened within like a 2 minute time frame.
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But Pittsburgh, Cleveland under, we were looking good under 36
2:29
1/2 points. We nailed it with the weather,
2:31
the wind. After three quarters, entering
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the fourth quarter, they had scored 16 points.
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So we could have given up 20 points in the fourth quarter and
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still cashed our bet. What happens?
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The Steelers and the Browns combined for 27 points in the
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fourth quarter. Again, 16 points in three
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quarters, 27 in the 4th. So that was brutal, losing that
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under 36 1/2. To make matters worse, NC State,
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Georgia Tech, I would argue this one was even worse because
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through 3/4, NC State Georgia Tech member, we had under one
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under 51 1/2, they score 23 points.
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We're walking in the fourth quarter saying, hey, we can give
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up 28 points. We can literally give up, you
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know, 4 touchdowns and still cash this under by the hook.
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Fourth quarter they score 36 points.
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They go for it for two when they had no reason to.
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They exchange scores late. Just absolutely brutal.
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So these are I tweeted out from my Twitter at Josh under score
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Insights because I want to of course, let you guys know that
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all the best bets are available now on Juice Reel.
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But Juice Reel, when you plug in one of your bets, you sync up
3:36
your app to the Juice Reel app. It'll give you like a little bit
3:39
of a chart or a graph as you're, you know, tracking your sweat.
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So I tweeted it out, but like the basically the Steelers,
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Browns and the Georgia Tech, NC State the entire time, 99% of
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the time we're in the green looking good at the very end, a
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flurry of points to kill our under.
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So those are both brutal. And again, we're looking at,
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hey, we're having a big night here.
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Four and two, maybe five and one, of course, we lose both of
4:01
those. And then we lose the Nick Chubb
4:03
under even worse because Nick Chubb was going to catch that
4:07
under 53 1/2. What happens on the final drive?
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He gets two more carries to get up to 59, and we lose our Nick
4:13
Chubb under. So the Pittsburgh, Cleveland
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under the NC State under the Nick Chubb under, all three
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plays that were looking like pretty good winners all flip to
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losers. So that's just brutal.
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And then Nevada and San Francisco, Nevada comes up short
4:27
by two. San Fran was up 9 at the half.
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They end up losing by 4. So it's just one of those nights
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where sometimes even when you make the right play, and again,
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I argue with a lot of people, there's a certain people you may
4:38
know who I'm talking about who love to say the right side is
4:41
the winning side. So the right side they would
4:43
claim would be Steelers, Browns over and NC stayed over.
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No, no, no, The right side to me is based upon the work you put
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in prior to the game starting the number that you're getting.
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And then of course, sometimes bad beats happen.
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So it's been, you know, we've had losing nights before, but I
5:00
can't remember a losing night that hurt so much like
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emotionally as last night, because when you're staring at
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like a four and two night and then it flips to one and five,
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it's like, man, what what what happened here?
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So sadly, that's sports betting. Sometimes it's going to happen.
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2 terrible, bad beats like that with those unders.
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Honestly, I had a tough time sleeping last night because of
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those. But here's the thing, there's no
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evidence of this, but I would just kind of remind you, you
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guys who are listening, sometimes you have bad beats,
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but it just means that in the future we're going to have some
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epic backdoor covers and hopefully some breaks that go
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our way. So after a 1 and 5 -, 4.1 unit
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night, let's see if we can get it back tonight.
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Only three bets. Let's try to go 2 and one eke
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out a profit and then of course we'll unveil the card for this
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weekend. So I want to start off tonight
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for today's pod talking about Thursday or Friday Night
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Football. So Friday Night Lights here in
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college and a couple games caught my eye.
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So let's start off with the early one here.
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This is a 7:00 game. Temple and UTSA now didn't see
5:58
much in terms of the side, but let me set the stage and I'm
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going to tell you why I'm playing the total.
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So 7:00 tonight. Temple comes in three and seven.
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They just snapped A2 game losing streak with an 18 to 15 win over
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Florida Atlantic. They cashed that one in overtime
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as a 2 point home favorite covering the number.
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UTSA is five and five, but they're playing pretty well.
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They're one game away from a bowl game.
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Remember, he needs six wins to get into a bowl game.
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But they just took down North Texas 4827.
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If you remember, that was a dog to fave line move on UTSA that
6:26
we cashed with. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, I mentioned, you know,
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UTSA, you could kind of make a case for me.
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Some books open -15 they're all up to minus sixteen F -, 17
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DraftKings are getting 74% bets, 90% money.
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At Circa, they're getting 91% bets, 97% money.
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So it's pretty clear the line is going toward UTSA.
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Looks like there may be some resistance at 17 with some books
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may be coming back down to 16 1/2.
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But motivational edge here would be the fact UTSA is going for a
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bowl game. Well, Temple no shot at a bowl
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and they just fired their head coach.
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So I know in pro sports you fire your head coach next game, you
7:03
come back and play well. I'm actually kicking my kicking
7:05
myself for not playing the Bruins last night in the in
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hockey because I knew as soon as they fired Jim Montgomery they
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would play well under Joe Sacco line actually went away from
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them last night. Good to get a win though.
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But anyway, if fire head coach in college, I think it's a bad
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kind of sign because all these kids are now going to quit on
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the program. Look for a way out.
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Obviously with NIL on the way, the landscape change, you know
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you're looking at kids who are probably checked out and saying
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I'm going to I'm going to switch to different team.
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So I get the movement toward UTSA if you think this is going
7:34
to be a blowout by the Roadrunners, but I'm going to
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focus on the total here. What I like about the total is
7:39
just some classic steam to the over.
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So this total open around 53 1/2.
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It's now been bet up to 56 1/2. Now you might be able to shop
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around, find an over 56. If not, I'll go over 56 1/2.
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But I'm looking for some points in this one.
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And I'll tell you a couple reasons like the over.
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One is the fact that we've seen this sharp move toward the over.
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So definitely ticked up throughout the day and
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overnight, but then also good bet split at circa 83% bets put
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95%. Money is on that over.
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We've also seen that UTSA, they played at the Alamodome.
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So you're indoors fast track here, no weather whatsoever.
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And UTSA has really put up a ton of points here.
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They're averaging over 30 points a game and here are the box
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scores of their last three home games, 48 to 2744 to 3638 to 24.
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So even if you go on the conservative side, 3824, you're
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still cashing this this total here.
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But I'm going to respect this line move toward the over good
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bet split. It's a team that scores a lot
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and we have some good angles here with a a Dome over with a
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lot of steam. So I'm going to play this over
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and I would just toss in the fact that Rhythm, our friends at
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Rhythm, have a predicted total of 57.3.
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So shop around, try to find an over 56.
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You might be able to find that at one book I'm looking at right
8:59
now, if not 56 1/2. But let's see if we can get
9:02
Temple UTSA going over here. That would be the goal.
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Now, next one for you, UNLV, San Jose State.
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Now you can twist my arm. In terms of the side, I'll give
9:13
you the setup here, but San Jose State plus 7 1/2 kind of looks
9:17
sharp. Publics all over UNLV, but we
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pretty much had a line freeze or even some reverse line movement
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towards San Jose State. But I'm gonna tell you why.
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I'm gonna play the total here in one second.
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Let's set the stage. 10:00 game tonight most heavily back game
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of the night, UNLV at San Jose State.
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UNLV comes in eight and two the rank 24th in the country.
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They've won two straight just crushed San Diego State 41 to 20
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did not cover though as a 22 point home favorite tells you
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how good the odds makers are. Meanwhile, San Jose State 6:00
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and 4:00 but they just got rolled by Boise 42 to 21 did not
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cover as a 14 1/2 point home dog.
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So I was mentioning this total. I leaned towards San Jose State.
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You have currently UNLV getting 60% of bets, but they open -7
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1/2, they've stayed -7 1/2 and some books even have inch down
10:03
towards 7 throughout the week. So this line's never gotten 8
10:06
even though UNLV is the public play.
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Remember they're they're ranked team 24th.
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San Jose State unranked. San Jose State only getting 40%
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bets but 76% money. Also an unranked conference dog
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for sell high ranked opponent dog off a blowout loss versus
10:21
favorite off a blowout when? So if you make me pick a side,
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I'm rooting for anyone on San Jose State.
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So I really like this under. So I'm going to stick with the
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under here. This total open at 61 1/2.
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It's now been bet down to 60 or 59 1/2.
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And that's notable because if you look at the bet split at
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Circa, which takes in a lot of sharp money, the tickets are
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5050, but 85% of money is on the under, which coincides and jives
10:47
with that line move that's falling a bit here.
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And this is a weather play for me.
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Obviously we're San Jose, so we're not, you know, down up
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north somewhere, I guess Northern California a little
10:56
bit. Whereas San Jose State, I don't,
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I don't get my bearings. You're talking to a guy from
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Boston. Anyway, weather could play a
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role here. It's going to be 60°, so it's
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not freezing, but it's going to be rainy.
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You're going to get about 11:50 mile per hour winds with gusts
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up to 20 mph. So again, we had a bad beat on
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that windy under last night with the snow, by the way, How cool
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is that with the snow? I'm like getting my heart
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broken. But yeah, I'm like, man, this is
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pretty cool. Watching, watching.
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There's something about snow in the NFL.
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It just looks super cool. It reminds you of, you know,
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going in the backyard with your buddies when you're growing up
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playing, playing touch football. But anyway, this will be a windy
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under when the wind blows 10 mph or more.
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The under is 55% over the last decade.
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And we also have a really good rhythm edge to this.
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UNLV, San Jose State under rhythm has 2 predictions here. 1
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is 58.7, so barely catching that.
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Under 59 1/2, but another one that says 54.9.
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So again, I think if you're San Jose State, you don't want to
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get into a shootout here with UNLV.
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Can you play decent defense? Can you keep both teams less
11:56
than 30 points? I'm going to play this under
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UNLV, San Jose State. If you can find under 60,
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fantastic. If not under 59 1/2, that is my
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bet. So over 56 1/2 or 56 for Temple
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UTSA and under 60 or 59 1/2 UNLV, San Jose State.
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Can we find a way to at least go one and one or maybe go 2 and O?
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That would be great. Now let's go over to college
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basketball. I'm looking at college hoops.
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I didn't see a ton of system matches in terms of like
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obscure, sharp line moves, But I did notice that there's a huge
12:27
game tonight. So I only have one bet, but this
12:29
is a big one. I'm looking at Duke and Arizona.
12:32
Obviously, this is a huge game tonight.
12:34
Let me just dial it up for you. But it is a 10:30 PM Eastern
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Time. I want to say it's on ESPNI
12:42
believe. Yeah, it's ESPN 2.
12:44
But anyway, you have two great teams facing off.
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So if you look at Duke, Duke is always great.
12:49
By the way, check out Cooper Flagg.
12:50
If you've never seen him before, it'd probably be the number one
12:52
overall pick. He's kind of like AI don't even
12:55
know like he's been compared to Andrei Carolenko, if you
12:57
remember him, probably because he's just a tall white guy who
12:59
can play. But anyway, he'd probably be the
13:01
first pick. But Duke comes in three and one
13:04
ranked 12th. Arizona comes in two and one
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ranked 17th. However, most heavily back game
13:10
of the night. And the one thing I noticed
13:11
about this one is a really sharp fade.
13:14
The trendy dog play. Now this game is a true home
13:16
game for Arizona. So Wildcats Arena, but majority
13:20
of batters are taking Duke here. I get it, Duke is a big name
13:23
school but currently you're getting 65% of bets on Duke.
13:27
But Arizona open -1 1/2 or even you know -1 and they've stayed
13:32
-1 1/2. So why is the line?
13:34
Why did it open Zona favored? Why is it still Zona favored?
13:38
Why isn't this gone down to a pick or flipped dog to fave in
13:41
favor of Duke? The fact that the odds makers do
13:44
not I want to bring this line down to a pick or move it to
13:47
Duke tells me that they have a lot of respect for Arizona here.
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So I'm going to feed the trendy dog.
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I got Arizona on the money line most heavily Bet game of the
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night. One of your top contrarian plays
13:57
of the night. Only getting 35% of bets at
14:00
Circa. They are only getting 40% bets
14:02
but 86% dollars. So great low bets, higher
14:06
dollars, bet split. You do have a one day rest
14:08
advantage for Arizona. They last played on the 15th
14:12
versus the 16th for Duke. It's a bit of a buy low sell
14:14
high because zona just lost to Wisconsin.
14:16
Duke just blew out Wofford. Here's where it gets even
14:20
better. Really good rhythm predictions
14:22
here. Rhythm has zona -4.1 and Rhythm
14:26
has zona -2.6. So even if you take the lower
14:29
number there 2.6, still they the advanced models at Rhythm are
14:34
saying Arizona should actually be favored by more in this game.
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Then you get to two of my favorite systems or it's kind of
14:40
the same system but you can play it two different ways. 2 ranked
14:42
teams take the home favorite. Dust this one off.
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This is if you've been with me in the gambling world for a few
14:48
years at this point. You love the system because we
14:50
play it every time it pops. But 2 ranked teams take the home
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favorite on the spread since 20/21 it is 169 ATS 59%.
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But on the money line, which is what I'm doing, I got Arizona at
15:04
-125 it's three and O this year it's 137 and 3679 percent, 17%
15:12
ROI since 2021. So 2 ranked teams take the home
15:15
favorite. It's just been a killer system.
15:18
Also, I'm going to bank on one thing with Zona offensive
15:21
rebound percentage. Hopefully they can feast on the
15:24
boards here against Duke because they are the number one team in
15:26
the country. Offensive rebound percentage.
15:28
Duke is 55 or 55th. So tonight it's the most heavily
15:32
back game of the night. Everyone, not everyone but
15:35
majority are playing Duke, yet this has remained a fade.
15:37
The trendy dog sharp reverse line mover sharp line freeze in
15:41
favor of Arizona. So let's go Wildcats.
15:44
I'm going zona here to win the damn game at -125 S Arizona
15:48
money line Temple UTSA over UNLV San Jose State under now let's
15:54
unveil our card for this weekend and I want to start with talking
15:58
some UFC biting in the arena now looking for a bounce back
16:03
because I remember last weekend I was pumped to sweat.
16:05
I forgot the guy's name, but he got choked out in like 30
16:08
seconds. So hopefully we get a better
16:10
result here for tonight. I would tell you guys right off
16:13
the bat, I'm going to butcher this person's name.
16:15
There are a lot of names on here that I cannot pronounce
16:18
whatsoever and this is another one.
16:21
But luckily it's kind of a short name.
16:23
I'm going to go with, Let me find it for you, Long Chow.
16:31
So it's Long and then Chow or Zhao XXIAO Zhao.
16:38
I know Xi Jinping or she again, my pronunciation is probably
16:43
terrible, but Long Zhao Xiao is his last name.
16:49
He is fighting Lee Kwang LE and then QUANG.
16:54
I'm going to go with Long Chow or Zhao here.
16:58
A couple things I like. Again, I'll unveil the model
17:00
where we, you know, kind of remind you guys when I'm playing
17:03
UFCI, start with the data. I start by getting that e-mail
17:06
from my buddy John Ewing every Friday gives me bets and dollars
17:09
and line moves. So I start with what the market
17:11
is telling me. I noticed with Long Zhao that he
17:15
opened out a pick em. It was basically -110 both
17:18
sides. Long Zhao is up to -150 So right
17:23
off the bat, pick em to fave line move.
17:26
Long Zhao is only getting 58% bets but 75% money.
17:30
So don't love 58% technically public, but it's, you know, not
17:34
that lopsided, but 75% money in that line move.
17:38
Here's where it gets even better.
17:39
Now let's go from the data to the tail of the tape, the
17:43
physical and youth advantages. Long Zhao is 26 years old.
17:47
His opponent Lee Kwong is 33 years old.
17:51
So you have a youth advantage. That is A7 year youth advantage.
17:54
Long Zhao is 5 foot 7, his opponent's 5 foot 5.
17:59
So we got a height advantage now for the reach both 70 inches.
18:03
So nothing there. But we're checking off boxes.
18:06
We have younger, taller, low bets, higher dollars, sharp line
18:09
move. So we're really checking off the
18:11
main boxes here. Then I dug a little bit deeper,
18:14
significant strikes per minute, 4.98 for Zhao versus one point O
18:20
7 for Lee Kwong. So again, if no one gets knocked
18:24
out and it goes to the judges, typically the more offense, more
18:27
offensive person is going to get the, you know, kind of the the
18:31
lean there from the judges. Striking accuracy 52% versus
18:35
23%. Another advantage.
18:38
How how do these fighters defend themselves?
18:41
Defensive significant strikes per minute thwarted 48% for Zhao
18:46
versus 27% for Kwong. And then I was also reading
18:49
about how long Xiao is way more experienced.
18:52
He wouldn't think that because he's 26, his opponent's 33, but
18:56
he's 26 and 9. His opponent is 8 and one good
18:59
record, but hasn't fought a lot of competition and again, hasn't
19:02
had a lot of time in the UFC. His opponent also, I couldn't
19:05
believe this is making his fourth fight this year.
19:08
So that's a lot of fights. That's a lot of damage, 4 fights
19:11
in one year. Maybe he's spreading himself a
19:14
little too thin. Has he recovered again?
19:16
That's a, that's a lot of action, which either tells you,
19:19
you know, he want, he wants that smoke as the kids say, or maybe
19:22
you're overextending yourself a little bit.
19:24
But Long story short -110 to -150 pick them to fave line
19:28
move, 58% bets, 75% money, younger, taller, more offense,
19:33
better defense, more experience. So I'm sweating Long Zhao
19:38
LONGXIAO and I got Long Zhao at -150 so let's go Long Zhao now
19:46
over to the NFL card for this weekend because probably a few
19:50
of these you guys already know about others have been kind of a
19:53
additional place for me. So the first one that caught my
19:57
eye, and we did mention this earlier this week, Chicago
19:59
Bears. I'm going Bears plus 3 1/2 Bears
20:02
at home against Minnesota. This is just a classic sharp
20:06
reverse line move. Publix on Minnesota, they're
20:08
getting 70% of bets, but Minnesota open -5 they're down
20:11
to 3 1/2. And I like the fact that even
20:13
though the sign has fallen towards Chicago.
20:16
That Chicago is juiced up plus 3 1/2 -, 115.
20:19
So that tells me we may even be getting down to three.
20:22
So good sharp reverse line move on the Bears divisional dog
20:26
built in familiarity, leveling the playing field.
20:28
Dog low total total on this one is 39 1/2.
20:31
Looks like it's a bit of a windy under, but I got to play Chicago
20:34
here as a reverse line move and rhythm has them only as a dog
20:38
getting like a point. So good rhythm edge there.
20:41
So I'm on Da Bears, I'm on DECA plus 3 1/2.
20:45
Next one I played Dallas, Washington under, under 45 1/2.
20:50
Hopefully got that a little bit earlier.
20:52
Some books are now down to 4544, 1/2, probably like this under.
20:56
It's only getting 53% bets, but 79% money on the under.
21:00
So really good bet split. You also have a little bit of
21:03
wind, 10 mph. And then you also have a lot of
21:06
system matches here toward the under in terms of divisional
21:08
unders that drop outdoor divisional unders.
21:11
All angles here for me are lighting up on the under.
21:13
So I played Dallas and Washington under 45 1/2.
21:18
Next one that I played, this is a new addition here, I'm going
21:21
to go Arizona Cardinals. I've kind of had my eye on this
21:24
game all week and there wasn't much movement, but now it's
21:27
starting to move. You open this game, Seattle at
21:30
home around a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
21:32
Now it's down to Seattle -1 or even a pick or even I see one
21:36
shop going to Arizona -1 so this line is moving dog to fave in
21:41
favor of Arizona or dog to pick them.
21:43
At least I money lined Arizona decent money line price.
21:47
I actually got them at I think -110 or -1 O 5 at Caesar's, so
21:51
pretty good number here, but they are a reverse line move
21:56
play. They are only getting 40% bets
21:59
at Let's see. Am I looking at the right one?
22:03
Actually that's hold on. That's the next one.
22:05
Arizona at DraftKings is getting 62% bets but 71% dollars And if
22:11
you also get Arizona at at circa 79% bets but 92% dollars.
22:18
So don't love the public angle there, but I respect that line
22:21
move. And here's what I really like
22:22
about Arizona. They're coming off a buy.
22:24
You have a really good rest first tired advantage here where
22:27
basically you can sell Seattle off of that big upset win
22:30
against San Fran. Always like fading a favorite
22:33
who just had a big win as a dog. It's kind of just a classic let
22:36
down spot. But the rest first tired is big.
22:39
Seattle played last week. Arizona was off last week.
22:42
So Arizona has that rest first tired again dog to pick them or
22:46
even dog to fave. Like I money line Arizona around
22:49
-110 I'd love to by the time we do Sunday sweats on on Sunday
22:54
for a rhythm on X on Twitter. I'd love to see Arizona flip to
22:58
-1 -, 1 1/2. Let's let's, let's hope that we
23:01
get that movement. But I'm going to play Arizona
23:04
here with a good sharp line move and off a by.
23:06
I think that's important. Green Bay Packers, I'm kicking
23:09
myself for not playing Green Bay earlier.
23:11
On the one hand, I love that they keep rising, but I'm
23:14
kicking myself, man, I should have bet Green Bay.
23:16
I had my sights on this one at the money line.
23:18
I think they're like -135 I thought maybe you'd get good
23:22
news about the San Francisco injury report and maybe see that
23:24
line fall a little bit. On the one hand, it's not good
23:28
that it's risen. On the other hand, it's good
23:30
that it's risen because it tells me Green Bay remains really,
23:32
really sharp. So I money line Green Bay.
23:35
I hated doing it, but I can. The best line I could get was
23:38
-175 but this line keeps going to the Packers.
23:41
It opened at San Fran, even favored by a point.
23:45
We flip to now, Green Bay -3 looks like it's even going to 3
23:48
1/2. Packers are only getting 40%
23:51
bets. At Circa, they're only getting
23:53
60. Let me see what they're getting
23:56
at Circa. Let me just dial that up.
23:57
Yeah, so at DraftKings, only getting 5040% bets, but 50%
24:01
dollars. So pretty good.
24:03
Low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
24:05
And at Circa, they're getting 62% bets, 97% dollars.
24:10
So a lot of love for Green Bay. And Brock Purdy, I think he's
24:13
going to play, but he could be banged up.
24:15
Trent Williams is banged up. Nick Bosa again, these guys may
24:19
play, but either way, whether they're going to play or be
24:22
limited, looks like a lot of money is just continuing to stay
24:25
with Green Bay. So I'm going to go Green Bay
24:27
here again. I'm I'm annoyed I didn't play
24:29
this officially earlier. I think we talked about on the
24:31
pod Monday or Tuesday and I should have bet it then, but I
24:35
thought San Fran would get these guys upgraded and it would fall
24:37
a little bit. Either way, Packers money line,
24:41
win the damn game. I'm on Packers -175 next one for
24:44
you, LA Rams. Hopefully you played this one a
24:47
little bit earlier, but I'm on Rams +3.
24:49
This is a really good contrarian play Sunday Night Football
24:53
you're currently getting. Oh, and I want to mention this
24:57
with Arizona. Arizona is favored -1 and even
25:01
as high as -6 with rhythm. With rhythm.
25:04
So a good sign to the Cardinals. But this one here with the Rams,
25:07
I took the +3. Now shop around, try to get the
25:10
plus 3. Some books are getting down to 2
25:12
1/2, but this is a game where everyone is playing Eagles
25:16
currently at DraftKings. The Eagles on Sunday football
25:18
are getting 81% of bets, but they open -3 they're down to 3
25:23
or 2 1/2. And I just noticed that Devonta
25:26
Smith has been ruled out for this game.
25:28
So one of your best receivers is out.
25:30
I'm going to play the Rams here. This reminds me of remember when
25:33
the Rams played the Vikings a few weeks ago?
25:35
Everyone is playing Vikings. Line Fell was a prime time game
25:39
toward the Rams. Reminds me, just like that game.
25:41
So I'm going to take McVeigh in the points, Stafford in the
25:44
points, primetime dog, bad ATS, good ATS.
25:47
I'm on the Rams +3 again. Shop around, make sure you can
25:50
find it, and then I'll tell you now, we'll be back at it on
25:52
Monday. That'll be episode 170 of the
25:55
All Systems Gopod. But I did put in Chargers plus
25:58
three, very similar. I think if you like Rams, you
26:00
like Chargers. Everyone's playing Baltimore
26:02
Monday night, but they open -3 they're getting down to 2 1/2.
26:05
So shop around. Try to get the hook there or
26:07
sorry, try to get the a key number of three, but that's a
26:10
very contrarian play to take to take the Chargers on Monday
26:13
night. So Bears plus 3 1/2, Commanders
26:15
under 45 1/2, Rams plus three Packers money line, Arizona
26:21
money line. And again, if you can get
26:23
Chargers 3 between now and Monday, I would grab it.
26:26
Those are my sweats for the NFL. Now over to some college
26:31
football here. I got 4 plays for you.
26:34
First one is one of the most heavily bet games of the weekend
26:37
and it involves a team that the public loves backing talk about
26:41
the Colorado buffs, but Colorado's on the road against
26:44
Kansas and I like Kansas in this one so shop around try to find a
26:48
+ 3 but you had Colorado open this game around a 2 1/2
26:53
three-point favorite and everyone's playing Colorado like
26:56
currently 80% of bets are laying it with Colorado.
26:59
I get it, You know, they got a good record.
27:01
They're ranked. Kansas has a losing record.
27:05
But there's been a lot of liability and reverse line
27:07
movement in the market on Kansas because all these -3 Colorados
27:12
are starting to fall down to 2 1/2, which is notable because
27:15
again, this Kansas is basically in that Rams or Charger spot
27:20
most one of the most heavily bet games of the weekend, everyone
27:22
playing Colorado. But this line keeps coming down
27:25
toward Kansas. Kansas only getting 20% bets.
27:28
One of the top contrarian plays of the weekend on ranked versus
27:32
ranked. Low bets, higher dollars, bet
27:34
split and this is a Kansas team that remember, they just took
27:38
down BYU for us. This is a fate of Colorado, a
27:41
backing of Kansas. And I don't really think Kansas
27:42
is as bad as people think based on their record.
27:45
I had some bad breaks earlier in the season, but it's a team
27:48
that's playing pretty good at home.
27:50
I think it's a good spot to fade Colorado.
27:51
So you got to get the hook or sorry, you got to get the key
27:53
number. But Kansas plus three that is
27:56
available right now at bet MGM and ESPN Bet.
27:58
So give me Kansas +3 next one for you.
28:02
I couldn't believe this line move.
28:04
Arizona State. Arizona State against BYU.
28:07
This one is notable because boy can things change quickly.
28:11
BYU was a darling. BYU ended up of course losing to
28:15
Kansas last week, which is fantastic for us.
28:18
But BYU is 9 and one the ranked 14th in the country.
28:21
Arizona State is 8 and 2 ranked 21st.
28:24
But this line keeps going toward Arizona State.
28:26
I like Arizona State here guys. I money lined Arizona State.
28:29
I got them at -160 at FanDuel, but they open as low as -1 1/2.
28:34
They quickly got up to -3 now they just went to 3 1/2.
28:37
So all movement liability has been on Arizona State.
28:40
There's really been no buyback whatsoever on BYU.
28:43
They are only getting 34% of money line bets, but 51% of
28:47
money line dollars. And it's just kind of fishy.
28:49
Like why is the number 21 team with the worst record favorite
28:53
favored over the number 14 team? This would be a dog who can
28:56
score a system match. Arizona State's been really good
28:58
at home. I'm going to play Arizona State
29:00
here. It just, I would, I would
29:02
imagine, you know the sign would fall to BYU.
29:04
Hey, there's value getting BYU and a hook.
29:07
Why are the odds makers giving you the hook now for BYU tells
29:10
me they're taking in money on the Sun Devils, so I'm on
29:12
Arizona State. Shop around for the best money
29:14
line I got -160 UCLA plus 4 1/2 ideally plus 5 + 5 ESPN bet.
29:22
I'll be UCLA at home against USC and public is all over.
29:27
USCUSC is getting around 60% of bets, a little bit higher across
29:33
the market. I was looking at some other
29:35
books, but movement has all been toward UCLA.
29:39
So open UCLA getting 6. Now it's down to five, 4 1/2.
29:43
So the lines going toward UCLA, even though Publix on USC.
29:46
This is by the way, a 10/30 late night game.
29:49
UCLA has a one day rest advantage there.
29:52
A conference dog system match. They're off a loss versus USC
29:56
off a win. And I was reading about USC.
29:58
They're very Jekyll and Hyde home Rd. at home, they're good
30:01
four and one on the road, they're O and four.
30:03
So I'm going to play UCLA here. This screams like you know, USC
30:06
wins by three, but the four and a half is available everywhere.
30:10
But I did find a + 5 with with UCLA and that was at ESPN bet.
30:15
So try to get the five if you can.
30:17
Let's go UCLA then a team that rolled for us last week.
30:21
I said, you know what, they're sharp again this week.
30:24
Air Force, baby, let's go Air Force.
30:26
Air Force is on the road at Nevada.
30:28
We've seen sharp movement, Air Force.
30:31
Air Force on the road was getting or flipped the other
30:34
way. Nevada was around a four and a
30:36
half point favorite at the open. This line is now down to 3.
30:39
Some shops even going down to 2 1/2 possibly.
30:42
Now I was able to find a + 3 1/2 Air Force on FanDuel -122.
30:48
But basically this is a 5050 line move.
30:49
Only around 50% bets on Air Force, but 60% dollars low bets,
30:54
higher dollars. Not a not a reverse line move
30:57
because you have to be contrary in there, but a sharp line move
31:00
5050 line shouldn't move at all yet it's falling in favor of Air
31:03
Force. Short Rd. dog system match.
31:05
Again, you're only getting three now at this point, typically
31:09
three points home field. That means it's a pick em game
31:11
on a neutral site short Rd. dog system match as I just
31:14
mentioned, but also Air Force's defense.
31:17
They're only giving up 24 points a game versus 31 for Nevada and
31:22
we saw it against Oregon State. But Air Force, their triple
31:24
option if you don't practice against it, that can really kind
31:27
of catch you off guard. Nevada, by the way, is only one
31:30
in four at home this year. They've struggled at home.
31:32
And I did notice Rhythm has Air Force 2 models plus 2.1 and plus
31:37
2.6. So if you have FanDuel, grab the
31:40
hook plus 3 1/2. If not, I'll take a three.
31:43
But Air Force, UCLA, Arizona State, money line and Kansas,
31:47
make sure you get hooks and key numbers and let's see if we can
31:50
find a way to maybe get three out of those.
31:51
That would be great. So that about does it.
31:54
Another pod in the books here, Episode 169, Rob Gronkowski's
31:59
favorite number here. This is the part of the pod
32:01
where we wrap things up. And I start by asking a favor of
32:03
you. Could you please do me a solid
32:05
and give this podcast a five star review?
32:08
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, should be an option
32:10
there to rate or review. Five stars would make my day.
32:13
Help us to grow the pod. If you want to click the follow
32:15
button or leave a nice comment, always, always love that as
32:18
well. If you want to recommend the pod
32:20
to a friend, someone who meet who needs a little bit more data
32:23
and less opinion in their life, word of mouth is always great as
32:27
well. Secondly, if you enjoy these
32:30
breakdowns, obviously we didn't have the best night last night,
32:33
but I would argue that's one of those nights where the bad beats
32:35
just keep on coming. Sometimes that happens, but I
32:38
would make all those plays last night 10 times out of 10.
32:41
So sometimes the breaks go your way, sometimes they don't.
32:43
But here's the thing. Have you been interested in now
32:46
learning more about data-driven betting?
32:49
Do you enjoy the breakdowns? Do you want to up your
32:51
data-driven game or do you want to support the pod?
32:54
I'll also love that. But if you do, I wrote a book
32:58
and it's becoming the holiday season.
32:59
So this makes a great easy stocking stuffer or gift to
33:03
your, your cousin, your aunt, your uncle, your son, whoever.
33:07
But I wrote a book, It's called the Everything Guide to Sports
33:09
Betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type it
33:11
in, buy a copy for you or a friend or buddy of yours.
33:15
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, everything we
33:17
talked about daily on the pod. It's all in there.
33:19
How to read line movement, how to go contrarian, how to
33:21
identify sharp action, steam moves, reverse line moves,
33:25
bankroll management, how to place a bet in person or online.
33:27
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
33:29
Betting. So pick one up.
33:31
I want to see a big spike in holiday sales.
33:33
That would make me very happy. Next, have you taken advantage
33:36
of Juice Reel or rhythm yet? My two favorite sports books or
33:39
sports betting apps, I should say on the market Rhythm great
33:43
for their AI back models for game bets and player props.
33:46
Juice reel great for if you want to track those all system go
33:49
best bets which are available Juice Reel I'm going to start as
33:53
I've already started tweeting out every single day the link.
33:56
I've seen a lot of sign up, so I'm loving that.
33:59
Whether you want to tell the bats or just support the pod,
34:02
it's 499 a week. Again, I know it sounds touty,
34:05
but I hope you don't think about it that way.
34:07
Think about it as supporting the pot, a tip jar if you will, for
34:10
the price of a coffee basically, but juice trail.
34:12
Not just if you want to follow the ASG best bets, but also if
34:15
you want to follow the Robo Jackson best bets, which are
34:17
spit out to two plays every every day at noon based on the
34:23
model and algorithm for the air back to perform model.
34:26
You can also look at arbitrage plays, sharp mush opportunities,
34:29
sync up your sports books, shop for the best numbers on futures,
34:32
all available with juice reel and rhythm.
34:34
So please go download the apps and and hopefully you'll you'll
34:38
you'll see your improved betting results as thanks to kind of
34:42
another another tool that you can add to your data-driven
34:45
toolkit. So that about does everybody
34:48
again, the weekend is upon us here.
34:50
I still can't get over how frustrating last night was, but
34:52
hey, sometimes that'll happen. Unfortunately, sports betting,
34:55
just when you think you're hot and you got it all figured out,
34:58
it always finds a way to humble you, even when you when you make
35:00
the shot sharp, solid play. Just the players on the field,
35:04
they don't care what you bet they're going to do what they're
35:06
going to, what they're going to do.
35:07
So anyway, but I'm going to leave you with a couple things.
35:12
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
35:15
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods
35:17
or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
35:20
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
35:23
neck of the woods in Massachusetts brought in the
35:25
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter
35:27
sends his number runners where the lowest true as possible is
35:30
found at the South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays
35:32
jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
35:34
When you cash a big ticket at Circa wherever it may be, show
35:38
me your Browns ticket. You know what's annoying?
35:40
All those bad beats. It kind of takes away from what
35:42
a great hit that was with the Cleveland Browns.
35:44
But that under the chub under the NC State under RIP those up,
35:49
recycle them. That was just that was just
35:51
brutal. I can't get over last night.
35:52
Sometimes that happens, but anyway, guys, first one's on me,
35:55
next one's on you. We're going to post about the
35:56
book Sweat Sharp Contrarian Plays all night Long.
36:00
So wish the best of luck everyone.
36:01
As always, whether we go one and five or five and one, I hope you
36:04
guys know at this point the model never changes.
36:07
We read the market. When the market gives us
36:09
indicators of a sharp contrarian bet, we play it.
36:12
Grinders with blinders, fearless with disciplined.
36:14
That's always the motto. So always remember, stay sharp,
36:17
stay contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
36:20
side of the house, always be with the smart money, never
36:23
against it will smart money when every time, no, those unders
36:26
were sharp as heck, didn't come through.
36:28
Again, sometimes that happens unfortunately.
36:30
But I can guarantee you this. If we stay true to the model
36:33
long term, over the thousands and thousands and 10s of
36:36
thousands of bets we're going to make in our lifetime, hopefully
36:39
we're going to come out on top. If we stick to it against the
36:42
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
36:45
get some closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
36:47
to be a OK. So let's try to go 2 on one
36:50
tonight guys. Let's have a good weekend.
36:51
And reminder, I look forward to seeing you guys hopefully on
36:54
Sunday for the rhythm Sunday sweats.
36:56
It's myself and my buddy Sam Wagman.
36:58
James Santor has a wedding to go to on Sunday at Nationals Park.
37:02
Pretty cool. But we'll be doing it bright and
37:04
early 11:00 AM Eastern Time to noon.
37:06
So please tune in. Follow on X.
37:07
You just give me a follow at Josh under score insights on
37:10
Twitter and then we'll go live right at 11.
37:13
But look forward to seeing you guys then have a great Friday
37:15
night, have an even better weekend.
37:16
And let's see if we can finish off the week on a on a
37:19
surprising or on a hot note, I should say after a bad
37:23
surprising night last night. But good luck everybody.
37:26
I'll see you back on Monday. And that will be episode 170 of
37:30
the All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by
37:33
rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
37:35
great Friday night.