Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Leon Goldsmith: On Israel and Hezbollah signalling an escalation in hostilities

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Leon Goldsmith: On Israel and Hezbollah signalling an escalation in hostilities · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The tit for tat between Israel and Hezbila is really
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: ramping up overnight. There have been Israel has sent one
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: hundred jets to hit Lebanon in the preemptive strikes. That's
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: what they're calling them, preemptive strikes. Have a listen now,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: both sides say they don't want war. This doesn't really
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: sound like it. They don't want war, do they, But
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: they are calling them preempt for strikes, and they are
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: trying to avoid at least on the face of it,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: civilian casualties, including Hezbola have been going for drone launch pads,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: specifically inside IDF bases apparently. So what does this mean.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Let's go to doctor Leon Goldsmith, the Ottagia University Middle
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: East expert. Doctor Leon. Good morning, Good morning, Roan, thanks
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: for being with me. What are you reading into this?
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  Speaker 1: Is this the beginning of something or is this just
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  Speaker 1: a bit of aling.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: I think this is probably what reasonably predictable based on
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  Speaker 2: what happened after the assassinations of Fort Shako that Habella
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  Speaker 2: and Hassan Asula, the leader of Habela, has basically promised
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: that there would be some kind of retaliation, but they
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: were waiting for the Gaza ceasefire hostage talks to see
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: if they could be successful, because if they could have
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: got those through under severe US pressure, that would be
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  Speaker 2: a win for the whole resistance access but of course
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: on the other side, they were under severe pressure to
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: do something. So it's been forty forty days since those assassinations,
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  Speaker 2: and that's what they called this operation are Beane, which
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  Speaker 2: an Arabic means forty days. But it is still a
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  Speaker 2: limited for tad As you mentioned, it's not the big
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: majors of escalation that we're concerned about.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think then that the ongoing talks in Doha
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: and elsewhere are actually working as a contagia for a
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  Speaker 1: bigger attack.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: Well, I think what they were hoping was that because
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: the US is putting extreme pressure on all sides to
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  Speaker 2: reach some kind of a ceasefire agreement now because of
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: the collector regional stability, that this is an opportunity for
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: Hamas to basically survive within Gaza, which of course the
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Israelis don't want to see this, but this has been
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: what the reason why we haven't seen a retaliation until now.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Yes, what happens as we lead up to the US
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  Speaker 1: election because you've got a president, a potential president in Harris,
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  Speaker 1: who is walking a tight rope between some very young
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  Speaker 1: voters who are very pro gazen in Palestine and a
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  Speaker 1: more war hung no, I don't want to say war Hungary,
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  Speaker 1: but a more strident Biden.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think there's definitely a factor. I'm not so
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: much expert on the politics, but I think what we
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: would see is that whatever Israel wants to achieve, and
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: I think they want to Nani has said overnight that
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  Speaker 2: he wants to change the strategic situation on the northern border,
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  Speaker 2: and that basically means reducing his bulla's capacity to pose
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  Speaker 2: a threat to Israel. So I think he probably wants
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: to do that while Biden's still there. I think he's
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: been trying to provoke his brother and the Iranians into
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: a direct confrontation. I think that's what's been happening here.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: So once again, the bull it's kind of it's kind
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  Speaker 2: of like a it's not really back in Israel's court
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: because both sides feel as if that they've re established
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  Speaker 2: some kind of de terrence through this overnight pits a tack.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: Nathaniah's feeling a little bit more relaxed because his pole
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  Speaker 2: numbers are up, so he's not feeling so insecure and
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  Speaker 2: has on ISRAELA is feeling like he has at least
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: struck blow at Israel, which has restored his sort of
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: deterrence and his regional status.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for the analysis, Doctor Lion Goldsmith.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Always great to have you on the show. Otaga University,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Middle East Expert. For more from News Talks B listen
• 4:14
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• 4:18
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