Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Big TNF Matchup, Minshew's DMs & Guests | NFL Week 16

Transcript

Big TNF Matchup, Minshew's DMs & Guests | NFL Week 16 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: back at it on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: with me as she always is, in a fill in
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: for our brand new show, Daddy Stucky My Buckets. Compadre
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore is joining us. What a treat. On today's episode,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: We've got our plant the Flag game for week sixteen
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: official Thursday Night Football preview. We got a good one
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: rams Seahawks, and of course the main event Evans Tuesday Primer.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Congrats again to Stucky and his family. We will welcome
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: him back with open arms as soon as he has
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: done changing those stinky, dirty diapers. Matt Moore, welcome to
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the program. Thanks for joining us. How'd they convince you
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: to do this?
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Uh?
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: They asked me you want to do this? And I said,
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: of course, of course I want to do this. I'm
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: so excited to be on with Kendra. I love doing
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: everything with you, Brandon. I love the show. It's so terrific.
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: So excited for Stucky as a It's really gonna be
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: fun to watch him as a rookie as a as
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: a rookie here because like I'm a veteran dad, like
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: I've I've been around the block. I know like how
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: to fool the cornerbacks, i know how to play zone.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be really fun watching him get completely overwhelmed
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: but very excited to be on with you guys and
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: talks some football this week.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Any question, he's at that level. I'm kind of like
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: in my prime. But yeah, Stucky has many lessons to
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: learn about juggling, not only juggling fatherhood, but trying to
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: watch sports and bet on sports. It makes it all
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: lot more complicated. I'm very curious to see how that
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: lands for Stucky, and we'll see as it unfolds.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: My question is, do we think he names the kid
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Stucky two, or because that's his user name, he had
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: to go with Stucky three.
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: That's a good question. I think it's I think it's probably.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: I would say that it's likely Stucky three. I would
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: have to say Stucky three from this perspective, although I
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: would say that he might be naming him after Lamar Jackson.
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: That would not be a surprising name for him.
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: Just if we all had a Jackson.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: Could you amount he should name him fade the Chiefs
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: because that's what he does every damn week, and that
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: like give the child what you love, give the more
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: than anything.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Mister Moore. He did fade the Chiefs again and again
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: and again until we went head to head last week,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: right before little Stucky three was born, went head to head.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I took the Chargers plus the five and a half
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: he was on Kansas City. He said, now's the time
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: to bet him. And I still have not been able
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: to give him shit for this because he went and
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: had a kid. You know, he's pretty convenient Stucky, pretty convenient.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: Stucky three.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: But you don't know that I have a dog Jackson.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Kravitz has a dog Jackson. So if Stucky named Stucky
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: three Jackson, that would really be the drive fuck.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Dog, Matt, Do you happen to have a dog named Jackson,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: because that would really complete the trifecta here.
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: As a matter of it, No, I don't have. I
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: do not have a dog named dog named Jackson. I
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: wish I had a dog named Jackson. Now, although if
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: it's a dog named Jackson, I'm trying to think about,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: like what the comparison would be. Does he like almost
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: reach the toy when you throw it and then completely
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: slam his head into the ground and then fall over.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: Is that what happens is that he just like crips
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: on himself and failed.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Named after Duval County, so I can't really get into
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: what he's up to.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: You know what the crazy part is too. I don't
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: want to make this whole podcast about our dog's name,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: but my dog is named after Jacksonville as well. It
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: was the first trip that my wife and I took
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: together was to the city of Jacksonville, and so when
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: we got a dog, we named him Jackson after Jacksonville.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: So not only two dogs named Jackson, they're both.
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: That's guys, Like, I know that we're running a long
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: but can you guys talk about what it's like having
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: dogs that do meth in the house?
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Is that just like? Yeah, I didn't mention that my
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: mini Aussie wears jorts also.
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: Right in the house, right.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: Many Aussies? Two is nuts?
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: That's nuts, that's wild anyways, the odds it's almost the
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: color too.
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: They're both like American shepherds nuts.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: It's almost like they did this on purpose, at action
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: for some reason. So the Dolphins joined the Chiefs as
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: a pair of newly minted eliminated teams in the AFC.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: The Steelers win twenty eight to fifteen in a pretty
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: dull Monday night football game. We don't have to spend
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: much time on this, Kendra, because I find both of
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: these teams pretty boring at this point. But anything of
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: interest to you from last night?
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I have two takeaways. One Two A sucks especially
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: in the cold. That experiment needs to be over. Potentially
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: the second worst quarterback contract in the NFL right now,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: behind he who shall not be named. Two the Chiefs
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: are I'm sorry the Steelers. I was impressed by them.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: If they play the way that they did last night
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: and Aaron Rodgers can elevate the team, take the check down,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: they can keep the run game as strong as it
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: was last night.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: And they get TJ.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Watt back, this could be a team that spoils somebody
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: in a wild card round.
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: I was impressed by the Steelers last night.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: I The underdog mentality that they've been able to kind
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: of just take advantage of has done wonders for them.
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: And I got to stop like fading Mike.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Tomlin to eventually have a less than five hundred season
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: because it's kicking my ass.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Year. It doesn't matter, doesn't matter whose quarterback is.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh tolerates just above middling.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: Like if he were somewhere like a New England, like
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: a New York, like a Dallas, and he was just
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: above middling for this long, you cannot tell me that
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: he would be employed. I love that he's a players coach.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: I love him as a person. I love him as
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: a coach. I love his interviews. I think he's a
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: credible coach. But he has just above like Readden, the
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: line above middling for far too long for some major markets.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: I think that that's how he continues to do it
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: every single year. And the fact that playing in the
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: cold and having, like you know, a raw, raw team
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: of guys that you hype up, I think that that helps.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I need to bring Evan in for a moment because
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I saw this flash across the screen last night, Kendra.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I saw you tweet a tweet about this as well.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I did not know this, and maybe it was in
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: the primer and I didn't scroll all the way down
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: to the bottom, so this could be on me. But
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I did not know until last night that Mike Tomlin
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: was undefeated on Monday Night Football, and that the Steelers
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: as an organization are twenty three and oh in their
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: last twenty three home games on Monday Night football. Evan,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: was this information that we had? Why was I learning
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: about this as I'm watching the broadcast?
• 6:53
  Speaker 6: I do believe it was the first note in the
• 6:54
  Speaker 6: Steelers Dolphins.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Okay, great, we'll say that.
• 6:57
  Speaker 6: I'll also say this, and I am just such a
• 6:59
  Speaker 6: technical dude because of what I do for a living.
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: But they did lose on a Monday at home to
• 7:05
  Speaker 6: the Commanders, but that was in a COVID. Did they
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: move the game to a Monday so they have lost,
• 7:12
  Speaker 6: but on Monday Night Football?
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: In quotes with.
• 7:15
  Speaker 6: ESPN on the logo, go he's won that many games straight?
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: All right, I'll even know.
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: I love how Avan was like, was like, no, no,
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: it's it's hard to figure out. You couldn't have found
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: it unless you read the thing I said.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: You you know, when it's at the top, it sort
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: of sneaks in there. I like the good stuff right
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: in the middle.
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: Even we're shitting on cravits today, I'm here for it.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: It's great.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure that we're not done doing that, don't
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: you worry. Let's get to our main dish for today.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: The Packers lose Michael Parsons for the year with a
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: torn acl We've seen their Super Bowl odds shift because
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: of it. They're now fifteen to one to win the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: whole thing, in line with the Patriots, slightly behind the Texans. Texans,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: by the way, I did log that bet on action
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: at twelve to one to win the Super Bowl. Love
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: what I'm seeing from them, their offense now marrying up
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: with how good that defense is. That's the kind of
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: team that wins the Super Bowl, especially with how wide
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: open things are this year? Are the Packers still bettable
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: without their best pass rusher? Kendra? Where are you at
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: on Green Bay?
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: I got to look up their remaining schedule, but no,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: as far as like the law right, so they're remaining
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: schedules at the Bears home against the Ravens and then
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: at the Vikings. Maybe you could get me to the
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: window on the Bears, just because of the divisional aspect
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: and the fact that I think that the Bears are
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: probably due to struggle a little bit here potentially, But
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: as far as long term value, I don't believe in
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love and let's be honest. The quarterback is what
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: puts asses in seats, It's what elevates your team and
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: what it's what puts your team over the edge.
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: But championships are won.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: By defenses, and without a guy like that to you know,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: create pressure and you know, reeks some havoc in the postseason.
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I don't, I don't.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: I can't get behind this team. I feel bad for
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Stucky in his future. That's a massive blow because that
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: was such a good look from what.
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: He got in May. But I can't keept behind this team.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: They're inconsistent, They lose to teams that they shouldn't once,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Like I said, I don't believe in Jordan Love and
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: losing a guy like that and Tucker Craft being on
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: IR that.
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: Was just like the heart and soul of your offense.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: I think that they've just unfortunately taken too many blows
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: to be able to recover as far as like having
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: any long term aspirations, dealing.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: With injuries on the offensive line as well. Looks like
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Christian Watson might try and give it a go this week.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: They are road favorites against the Chicago Bears. I don't
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: know about all that Matt, where do you land on
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Green Bay with the shakeups to the roster.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, the overall, the overall kind of look
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: here is still pretty strong for green Bay. And for
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: sure Parsons is an incredible player and losing him hurts.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: Look how many times do we see teams, though, lose
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: a guy that's got big name, star value, who's not
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: a quarterback, and that team goes on to make a
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: run because it's like, well they're so banged up, who's not.
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: Look at this point in the season, like everybody's dealing
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: with all these injuries. Look at the Lions, the Pets.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: Heads are falling off, Like there's got to be a
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: point where there's value on a team because of this perception.
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: This is like, this was the team that everyone loved
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: in preseason. This is the team that came out started
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: the season and everyone was like whoa, and then it
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: was like its prey actually good and then they've just
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: kind of kept chugging and they're in this kind of position.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: I still think that there's there's probably a little bit
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: of value here to get back in on them, just
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: because like, look it is the I mean, look, they're
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: behind the eight ball. Here on pass rush EPA. Defensively,
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: that's a problem. That's a problem. You're gonna face some
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: pretty good quarterbacks in the playoffs. But if you're able
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: to position yourself into the right seat and you get
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: the right bracket, I still think that there's probably a
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: reason why every model, every metric, every number, every power
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: rating has continued to trust Green Bay. So I think
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: there's probably a little bit of value there.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Arsons has sixty four pressures on the season, eleven more
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: than any other player in the NFL, and the Packers
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: still rank sixteenth in sack percentage, and that number is
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: only gonna get worse with him not on the field
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: if you can't get after the quarterback. And now, and
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: that's just sack percentage, we're just talking about simply creating pressure.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: You don't have to double anybody on the defense anymore.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: We're gonna see those numbers, plummet. I worry about the
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Packers in a loaded NFC, and I just think that
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the NFC is just too tight to lose a player
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: like that when they really weren't great at getting after
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the quarterback even with Parsons.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: Okay, the Rams, no question right, the Rams are the
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: thunder of the NFL right now, where it's like everyone
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: just like looking up at me and like, damn, what's
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: to look like from up there? Who else are you?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Like?
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: Genuinely like, oh man, the.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Packers, See, this is what I was just gonna bring
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: to you. The only NFC teams in a playoff picture.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: I think that the Packers could be eat right now,
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: Carolina and Dallas. That's literally it. Detroit would beat them,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: San Francisco would beat them, Seattle would beat them, Tampa
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Bay would beat them, Philly would beat them, Chicago question mark,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: and then the Rams would beat the piss out of them.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: So I unless they were to draw, you know, the
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Panthers or Dallas, I don't see.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: I don't see.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: Them being able to beat any of these other NFC options.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: What's your confidence level credits on if it's if it's
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: Packers at Eagles, what's your confidence level if that winds
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: up being the matchup?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: When we already saw these two matchup this year, and
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: that was with a healthy Micah Parsons and the Eagles
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: got the best of them, it looks like Philly's back
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: on track. To me, it becomes a coin flip. Whereas
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: when Parsons was healthy. That's where I would lean the
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: way of Green Bay. So it's not like it knocks
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: them out of contention. It just knocks when I'm gonna
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: go back to the original question of are they still better,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think they have a leg up on the
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: teams that are that are in that mix at the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: top of the NFC.
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: I don't see two division games left.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Like to me, they're just as good now as.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: What do we say on buckets about buying low rabbits.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but sometimes you just got to knowing to get
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: off the train.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: I feel like it's gotta be this week against the Bears,
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: and then that it's probably it right.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I let's let's see how this goes against Chicago this week.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Who is talk about a all potential cell high team
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: and they've been like that for a lot of the season.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: The Packers already beat the Chicago Bears. If the Bears
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: put it on them and and the Packers really struggle,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: then and perhaps we've all avoided the the by low
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: on green Bay properly, or maybe you see something. I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: would just wait to see what it looks like. Christmas
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: for the NFL just got a whole lot less interesting.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels has been shut down by the Commanders, so
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: we'll get Prescott versus Mariota. The Cowboys, by the way,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: eliminated from the playoffs. The Commanders eliminated from playoff contention.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry. The Cowboys still have a one percent chance
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: according to the analytics to make the playoffs, so highly unlikely.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Lions Vikings, which is about halfway decent, but the Vikings
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: are out. Bo Nicks versus Gardner Minshew to wrap up
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: the day and the Chiefs are done, Kendra, how should
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: folks be handling their Christmas Day now that the NFL
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: looks like this?
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: I feel like, obviously, you're gonna probably watch the NBA
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: unless you're a sicko like us, Well like me, I'm
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: gonna probably have the dual screen. But NFL always always
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: takes the cake in my household. But maybe go touch
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: some grass, hang out with your family. It's it's the
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: perfect slate to kind of maybe log off first for the.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Jack Matt does, Does our other favorite sport get a
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: little leg up? Now?
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: Gonna be really embarrassing when the NFL once again murders
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: the NBA and ratings. You's gonna have with Gardner minshew,
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be it's gonna be really embarrassing when that happens.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: But I look, I would say this that I just
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: don't know. There are bad football games, but bad football
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: games are decided by style, not based off of like
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: actual team quality. You can have a really competitive, fun
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: game between two pretty crappy franchises, and these teams are
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: obviously in rough shape, but i'd be they'll still be entertaining.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: The key is to have it on while you're doing
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: something else, like if you're making Christmas dinner, like if
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: you're the cook in the house like I am. It's
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: great having these games on on like a side screen
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: while you're doing that, just to be able to like
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: look over and be like, oh, Gardner, minsh. You could
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: play the one good for him, that's the last that's
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: good for him. That's that is the way to approach Christmas.
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: Otherwise you can watch Victor Weben Yama not human. That's
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: also an option for it.
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Yes, we feaning for this in July, just so you
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: guys now think about this. In the month of July,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: we would be like I would take all three of
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: those games right now, just to feel something. Also embarrassing story.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: I when my mom got divorced, she was in love
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: with Gardner Minshew. So I slid in Gardner Minshew's DMS
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: on my mom's behalf and he left me on red.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: All right, that means we have to face.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: I tried. I'm gonna get you a T shirt that
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: says I tried to hook my mom up with Gardner Minshew.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Look at Diego Puvia and freaking' THEO Vaughn and his mom.
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: So it could have been you could have you could
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: have been mister Middleton.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: But here we are. Wow, any bigger loser than Diego Pavia?
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: This week the worst anyways, But our King Philip Rivers
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: set to start again for the Colts. That's gonna be
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: on the night football tilt. He led the Colts to
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: an impressive cover. They were a fourteen point dog against Seattle.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: They did not win, but he did his part. You know,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the stats weren't there, but he's forty four years old.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Demand's a Grandpa Belle refrigerator. Yes, Philip Rivers did not
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: look like he was in game shape, but it's going
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: to be my coldest stake of the day. Kendra, are
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: we looking the way of Indianapolis.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: I think the same way we kind of looked at
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: the Shador thing a couple weeks ago. Obviously they're not
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: similar nor comparable situations, but came out first game, everyone.
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: Thought that he was going to look like crap.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Faded the hell out of him, performed to a level
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: that was a bit higher than expectation, especially against a
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Seahawks defense.
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: I think we fade this shit out of him this week.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. The line has been bet up from
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: five and a half to six, so some urgency setting
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: in if you want to catch this before that dreaded
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: six and a half appears on the San Francisco forty
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: nine ers or they would be a phenomenal teaser leg
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: at this point as well. The Niners are on the road,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: but San Francisco has been I think criminally underrated for
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the last month of the season. Everybody's talking. Even to
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: the conversation that we just had, we did not mention
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. If you look at where they line up
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: power rating wise, they are among the best teams in
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: the NFL.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Didn't I said that I would take San Francisco over
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: the Packers.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: The defense is suspect, but the offense can put up points.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: And now we have some clarity on this whole Mac
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Jones versus Brock party think clearly pretty better for the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: team than your boy Mac Jones. But I'm with you.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: It is time to fade Philip Rivers. You're gonna have
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: folks that want to back him. You know you've got
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: the home crowd behind him. He covered for a lot
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: of folks last week. Or even if you weren't on it,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: you you saw that the Colts had some sense of life.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: The defense played great, but at what point are are we?
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: The Colts took one snap under center last week. The
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: guy can't move. The easiest bet I've ever cashed in
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: my life was on Sunday. It was Philip Rivers under
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: half a rushing yard. He was immobile, and.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: I have PTSD from him not throwing a pick six. Okay,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: I thought that I thought that I cooked there, but
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: instead I just spoiled chicken and.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Rice might happen this week. Now that you have a
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator that we respect in Robert Sala, that a
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: full week of game film on what has to be
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: the most predictable offense in the NFL now this feels
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: like it's forty nine ers or pass? Are you with
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: us here on the fade rivers bandwagon? Matt?
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: I just look look Niners five and a half on
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: the road, like five and a half on the road
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: versus team that the rest of them. Like, I understand
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: how good Daniel Jones was, but this team was his
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: top ten DVOA offense. Defense, Like, here's a question the
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: Niner you guys know better than I do, are is
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: the Niners defense so much healthier and better now as
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: to be substantially better than their ratings to where they're
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: gonna be able to take advantage of the octogenarian octodad
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: because that's something that you can actually like bank on
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: them being able.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: I understand.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: It's like the this is the extremely movable object versus
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: the completely resistible force, but by the metric. And here's
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: the other thing I always get get to with the
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: Niners is every time that everyone starts to get excited
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: about them is right where they start to smack their
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: head into the wall. And so I'm just a little
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: bit concerned that this is a little bit of a
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: not the best spot to back them as a road favorite.
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: I get it. But like, who's gonna want to bet
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: the Colts in this spot?
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad that you ask. Let's see what the
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: percentages say over on action, not many people. I actually
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: thought it would be more overwhelming. No, the game's on Monday,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: so this could shift by a lot. But forty four
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: percent of the bets, only thirty two percent of the
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: money is on the Indianapolis Cult.
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: Like since week ten, Niners are still eighteenth in dropback EPA. Defensively,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: I don't I just don't know that we have a
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: lot of Again, it's like, yeah, but it's Philip Rivers,
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: I hear you. I'm not saying that the Cults are
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: going to win this game, but five and a half
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: on the road, especially if this gets the what's the
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: number at which you want to get the cults? Kendra Like,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: at what number? Are you?
• 21:35
  Speaker 6: Like?
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: Oh, that's a lot. Philip Rivers is alive.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because we went through this exercise last
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: week and we were sitting here and we were like,
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: at what number do we think is worth it?
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: And we all kind of agreed maybe two touchdowns? And
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: look at us.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Now, that's that's kind of where I'm at, and I
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: pulled up the injury reports for both teams.
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: This is yucky, this is not this is not fun.
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: I don't like this. I'm I don't like this experiment.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Tell you, well, who's looking worse right now? Yah, gotta
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: be San has been battered all season.
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: Take the injuries out of it.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: If you are on a fifth string quarterback, I would
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: say you a forty four year old grandpa, fifth string
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: quarterback that you signed off of the couch last week,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: you're in a worse spot.
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: I'm sorry.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, your your third or fourth string guy broke his
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: orbitable orbital bone.
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: With a like No, it's the cults. It's not even close.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm done having sympathy for the forty nine ers.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: It's the same song and dance year in and year out.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: I can't keep having sympathy for you guys. I get
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: the injuries happen, I get that they're never intentional whatever,
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: but I can't no sympathy.
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: Last five weeks, the Niners are twenty fifth in rush
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: defensive EPA. Last five weeks when they're supposed to like
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: have turned around.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: No, their defense is not the defense is the defense
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: isn't good?
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: This is red warners on IR, mikel Williams on IR,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: Nick Mosa on IR. Jacob Robinson, like everybody on their
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: defense is reasible.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: My point about the defense, though, is that it will
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: make a bad defense look good going up against a
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: quarterback that is a sitting duck in the pocket if
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: they can figure out the most obvious run game situations
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: and just load up the box stop Jonathan Taylor. Philip
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: Rivers is not going to beat this team. Also, you
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: mentioned are we trusting the road favorites? I know you
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: love these trends, Matt. How about the forty nine ers
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: a clean five and oh this season as in a
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: way favorite best record in the NFL against the spread when.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: They are what's what's his record against quarterbacks that were
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: born in the seventeen hundreds.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: That's right, I don't, I can't. I'm going to need
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: more time on that.
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: Evan, Get on it, Get on it, Evan. So like
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: look theaically put.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: That in the middle of the blurb, though not at
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: the top where you know where everyone's gonna think to look.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: But right now, you know, Seahawks they lose, but like
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: they were in that game the whole way. Okay, on
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: the road and then I guess my look would be
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: the total here, right, because with what you're saying is
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: if if the Niners defense we know is banged up
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: and isn't good enough, and we know that the strength
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: of the Niners is the offense, even as good as
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: the Colts have been, if the Colts defense is exhausted
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: because their offense can't get off the field and Cravis,
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: you kind of want to like fade them to the
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: point of like they're gonna kill him, They're gonna kill
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: this team. Isn't it possible that this is like thirty
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: five thirteen and you're able to get over on the over,
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: which is only forty six and a half right now?
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Very much so, I think the over is very much
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: in play. The only issue is is that if you
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: a layering in any confidence for Indianapolis, their defense looked
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: damn good last week. Yeah, against a Seattle team that
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: can move the ball, so that is that's concerning, But
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: they tend to run better at home, and the San
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Francisco run defense isn't good. I just think when you,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: no matter how bad you are in terms of these
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: advanced stats that we look at every week, when your
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: offense lacks the availability of any creative layer. It makes
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: life so much easier, even defenses.
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: That's I think that's the decision tree, right is if
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: you think the Niners are going to score on them,
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: If you're like, no, they're gonna be exhausted, the Niners
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: are gonna be I have too many weapons and they're
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: gonna score, Okay, then you want the over. And if
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: you're like, I don't know that Colts defense is really good, Okay,
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: then it's a tight game again, and Colts are going
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: to cover this because they're at home. Is a five
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: and a half point dog Like wait for the six,
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: Like I'm not saying about the five and a half
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: because like, wait for the six, because again I just
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: ask like, how did you know? It'd be really interesting
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: to see what the the groups do with this this week, right,
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Like are the groups going to come in and be
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: like and look at this and go, no, I'm fading
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: Philip Rivers again. And because with where this number has
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: settled at at five and a half, it's in an
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: unbettable zone and I'm just gonna curious to see if
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: this hangs here or if it goes the other way.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: But like I would say, I like Colts, I like
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: the over.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: I think right now the best thing to do with
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: it is to tease the forty nine ers down, because
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: I do not think Philip Rivers is beating this team.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: We're about to talk Thursday Night Football, but first a
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: word from our very own Kendra Middleton.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with Draft Kings sportsbook,
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you covered.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Bet live on star player props and in progress games
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: right as they happen to get started to use promo
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: code at Favorites when signing up with DraftKings Again, use
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: code Favorites when signing up and bet five bucks to
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: get two hundred back in bonus bets.
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: All right, Kendrick, We'll get back to it in a moment.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: We've got Thursday Night Football a preview. Ram Seahawks still
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: plant the Flag game to get to as well. But
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: what's on your mind today?
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: What sell?
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: But you've been at.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: I had so many directions I could go, but since
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: I didn't do sports last week and we talked about
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: your loved ones eating your dead body, I decided to
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: keep it.
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: Probably you know PG this week.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: So would you rather play four NFL games at forty
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: four against top ten defenses or have to go the
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: distance or until you're knocked out in a boxing match
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: with a featherweight champion?
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, No, definitely rather play the football game
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: at forty four. At least I have offensive linemen that
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: are protecting me in these scenarios. If you're in the
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: boxing ring, it's you and the other dude, and maybe
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: you get a nice official but no.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: But then it's over, Like you only have to do
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: it one time.
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking the boxing match. You have to keep
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: going back out there. You have to keep Gorand at
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: forty four, I will tell you it gets harder to
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: get up every single time, every single time you get
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: knocked down. Once you can at least crawl your way
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: out of the ring. It's definitely the featherway.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: I was saying the other day, like my knee hurt,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: my left knee hurts, and I have no idea what
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I feel like. I have a torn acl and I
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: don't even know what happened, well even do anything?
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: Welcome this is the rest of your life.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: And I turned forty in August, so I assume that
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the two are correlated.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: Just like wake up. The best thing about being about
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: being old is that you you suffer injuries like you
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: talk about like getting hit by an NFL pass rusher
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: at like I have no idea how Philip Rivers is
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: doing this. I have no idea how Lebron's doing this,
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: because after forty you start having to be like, I
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: have an injury. What happened? I slept, That's it.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: I slept, and now body parts hurt and no idea.
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: I'm in my twenties and I feel like I'm in pain.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: Was there a right answer to this in your opinion, Kendra,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: That there's a right answer, but I do lean the
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: boxing just because it's like one and done, it's over.
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: I don't have to do all this prep work. Just
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: take me out.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to be taken out, but I guess,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: see Chiseoe, although, oh.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: I guess if you're Philip Rivers, your insurance clock resets
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: taking a snap.
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: So did you guys hear about this.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, now he gets insurance for all Yeah.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: So the reason he was open to coming back was
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: because after five years, your health insurance with the NFL
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: runs out, and when you have ten kids, you need
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: your health insurance. So he was willing to do it
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: to have the clock reset on his health insurance.
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: Sport.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: I still I can't believe they overvide. Hey, we're gonna
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: put you through this. You're gonna be a car wreck
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: seventeen times a year for ten years, but after five years,
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: you better figure out your own way to be able
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: to pay for your INSURAN. That's crazy, that is crazy talk,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: but good for him.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football Rams at Seahawks Seattle minus one and
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: a half, the totals sitting at forty four and a
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: half Thursday Nights Football, the Seahawks have flipped the favorites
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: after being one point dogs at the open. The winner
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: takes control of the NFC West. Seahawks probably would have
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: won the last game that these two teams met if
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold didn't have a complete and utter meltdown. He
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: was seeing ghosts again. And while they are coming off
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: that win against Indianapolis, as we mentioned, not all that impressive.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: They failed to get to the end zone and barely
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: escaped the old Man's strength of Philip Rivers. Seattle kicked
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: six field goals to barely beat the Colts. I find
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: myself leaning Seattle, though talk by low, even though they
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: won the game. How does anybody have confidence in the
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks yet, I still look at my janky power
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: ratings and I've got these two teams side by side.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: I think the home team that already lost in the
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup prior that actually outplayed the Rams. I think
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Seattle is the right side here, Hendra.
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: Actually, I think that you have just sold me. I
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: was leaning Seattle as well, but I'm going to go
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: ahead and get in on Seattle right now before the
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: inevitable happens. That being that DeVante Adams is ruled out.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: We know, I know that they said that Pokinakua had cramps.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I believe that he did not
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: look good standing up there. It looked like a back
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: something unless he was having like backspasms. So I think
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: that DeVante Adams probably going to be ruled out. Do
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: I think that this number is going to change a ton?
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: If that's the case, no, maybe a point something like that.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: But when you don't, when pukin Akua clearly not one
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: hundred percent, Davante Adams clearly not one hundred percent, Jordan
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: Winnington questionable as well, that leaves you with an healthy
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Pukunukua and tutuat well, and then nobody's so. I get
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: that Matthew Stafford is having an MVP season elite playing
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: out of his mind old man style. However, I don't
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: know if you can elevate your receivers that much to
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: be able to beat the Seattle defense right now. And
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle's probably going to be on a tear.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Like did they win the game against the Colts?
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: Yes?
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: Was it absolutely beyond embarrassing that it took what it
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: did from them to be able to win that game. Yeah,
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: So I think that they're probably going to be on
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a tear. Still think that the
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: Rams are the better team, just not as healthy right.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Now, matt are you with us on this Seattle train?
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: McVeigh has been really good on short rest. Is kind
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: of problem here is McVeigh. Here's funny is it completely
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: changes whether he's a favorite or a dog here and
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: the number predictably when it's like less than less than
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: a field or a field goal or less is pretty marginal.
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: But McVeigh when he's on short rest has done pretty
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: freaking well in these kind of spots about being able
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: to win and cover thirty one twenty five straight up
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: thirty and twenty five and one ats as a road
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: team on short rest, he's good in these kind of
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: spots on the road. I do kind of think this
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: is the spot where the Rams win, and then in
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: the playoffs, I would not be surprised if this comes
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: back the other way. I do think also, like you get,
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: you put, Darnold is the kind of quarterback that I
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: think good coaches are able to take advantage of that.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: They're able to kind of limit what he's capable of doing,
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: and that causes a lot of problems here. After week ten,
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: this is the counter of it. After week ten, home
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: teams on short rest versus an opponent on short rest
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: on Thursday Night football have been fifty six percent straight up,
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: but that's actually not that great for being at home,
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: and then their road team is actually fifty two percent
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: in those spots. So this is like road team division
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: late division matchup on Thursday. Football has been not terrible
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: for teams in the Rams spot. I kind of wonder
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: if this is a good opportunity to get ill in
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: the Rams.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: I do think the Rams are the better team, and
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: I kind of look at this the other way. I
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: think Seattle is the spot here. If these two teams
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: were to meet in the playoffs, I'd be right back
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: on the Rams and I'd throw some numbers out the window.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: I do have the Rams as just under a point
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: better than Seattle, but later in the home field advantage
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: and the fact that this is a weather game too.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: The temperature at forty eight, which is an unbearable but
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: wins up to eleven miles per hour, eighty six percent
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: chance of rain at kickoff, and you would think that
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: the team that is used to playing outdoors would be
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: slightly more be slightly more advantageous to them. I don't
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: know if I trust Sam Darnold with a wet football.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: That would be my one issue, but it should be Seattle.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: I'll line know from Evan not only what the record
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: is this season and last five years on when that
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: because like there has been that trend of when it
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: flips from favorite from dog to favorite. The favorite's been
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: terrible in those numbers over the last like five seasons,
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: but that may have reversed itself this season, and I'd
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: love to know what that happens when that's a division
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: game and when you have those kind of dynamics in play.
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: I'm not surprised that Seattle took money right like Seattle's been,
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: I think a little bit underrated and the Rams are.
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: This is answering question of like our Rams at peak value?
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: I don't know that's if that's true or not.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: And I think we've seen so. Evan will bring you
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: on at the end for the for the primer segment.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Definitely have that one in your back pocket. The we've
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: seen some reverse line movement in that regard, which I
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: know sports betters out there absolutely eat up the bets
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: and money coming in on the Rams sixty one percent
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Rams sixty three percent of
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: the money. Yet the line is moving in the other direction.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: So keep that in mind before we plant our flags.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: We're going to turn our attention to the College Football Playoff,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: which starts on Friday between number nine Alabama and number
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: eight Oklahoma. This game at eight pm Eastern on ABC
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: and ESPN. We've got Mike Calabrese. We're bringing in the
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: big guns joining us to talk about this game. But
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: first we want to let our listeners know what we
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: think is an awesome offer from Sling TV. Do you
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: need instant access to live TV because your squad is
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: in the College Football Playoff? That's not Kendra, that's not me,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: but it might apply to you. With Sling TV, you
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: can take control with flexible package options of a one
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: to three and seven day passes for access to thirty
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: plus live channels, which includes ESPN and TNC, so that
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: covers you for all eleven Epic College Football Playoff games.
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Public service announcement for those out there, Kendrick used to
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: be an Auburn Tiger, war Damn Eagle and all of that.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Jazz not sure if she's gonna be able to stay
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: objective here, but we can certainly try. Mike, give us
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: one thing that people need to know about each team
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: that will be a key for this game.
• 37:03
  Speaker 7: All right, Let's start with Jim Miller and his availability,
• 37:06
  Speaker 7: because this Alabama offense, I'm not breaking any news here,
• 37:08
  Speaker 7: it's pretty much broken without him because he's someone who
• 37:11
  Speaker 7: can pop it in the run game. He's always a
• 37:13
  Speaker 7: threat on swing passes. He can stretch the defense across
• 37:17
  Speaker 7: the field, and when the defense has to focus in
• 37:20
  Speaker 7: on him, it allows Grub and de Boor to really
• 37:23
  Speaker 7: get deeper in their bag in terms of their play
• 37:25
  Speaker 7: calling and their creativity. On the Oklahoma side of things,
• 37:28
  Speaker 7: Matier has just not been good since his hand injury.
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: I know that the kid's gutty. He goes through surgery,
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: he comes back.
• 37:34
  Speaker 7: They win a lot of games, but it's because of
• 37:36
  Speaker 7: their defense, it is not because of him. And when
• 37:38
  Speaker 7: you look at him passing the ball down the field,
• 37:40
  Speaker 7: if they're in a game script and game flow where
• 37:42
  Speaker 7: they need to come back and they need to score
• 37:44
  Speaker 7: points to an erase a deficit, he's going to have
• 37:46
  Speaker 7: to push the ball downfield, and he struggled when he
• 37:48
  Speaker 7: throws in that intermediate range. He's hit in about fifty
• 37:50
  Speaker 7: percent completions since the injury. But when he goes beyond
• 37:54
  Speaker 7: twenty yards, three big time throws, which is great, thirteen
• 37:57
  Speaker 7: turnover worthy plays, when he puts the ball in the
• 38:00
  Speaker 7: air more than twenty yards soundfield. Those are the two
• 38:02
  Speaker 7: things you need to know about the Sooners in the
• 38:03
  Speaker 7: Crimson side.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Kendrew, what's your least favorite thing about the University of Alabama?
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: Probably that most of their fans didn't actually go there.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna that's my answer. They're probably just Patriots, Yankees,
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Lakers fans that needed a college football team to support.
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: They didn't actually go to the school.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: Every time I'm in Auburn gear and someone's like, oh,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: roll Tide, I'm like, did you go out there?
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: And they're like, well no.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: But my second cousin twice removed it, and I just
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: like that they have a good football team.
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: That's my answer.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: No. I you know, I think a lot of people
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: probably struggle with perhaps getting in and that maybe that
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: is an issue. I don't know what the iso.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: No, no, yes, no.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: The requirements to Alabama are are you an out of
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: state student that has a ton of money to offer us?
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: And can you read? That's about it.
• 38:53
  Speaker 7: This is some big talk from someone who attended the
• 38:55
  Speaker 7: cow College in Alabama.
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: But you know what, listen, this is this is your fire.
• 38:58
  Speaker 7: You know you're coming at it with a lot of
• 39:01
  Speaker 7: enthusiasm and you want to talk some trash to Toabama grads.
• 39:04
  Speaker 7: I get it, but let's not get on our high
• 39:07
  Speaker 7: horse here. In terms of higher education in the Yellowhammer State.
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: Hey, I didn't graduate from Auburn, so I graduated from
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: a New England school.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: I got the better education of.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: The two, and I will col College on because cows
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: and alligators are my favorite animals, So cal College forever.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: Who is the better nightlife Alabama or Auburn.
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: Probably Alabama.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: I would say I only went out there one time
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: because when my neighbor growing up, she actually went to
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Alabama and I went to Auburn, so we did like
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: the crisscross thing of when we would go see each other.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: The nightlife there is a little bit better, just because
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: the downtown is bigger, But Auburn does have bigger bars,
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: so I would like size wise, you can fit more
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: people and there's more opportunity for different vibes in the bars.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: But Alabama nightlife is fun because most people that go
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: there from Jersey and New York and they know how
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: to party.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: Let's each make a pick so that we can sit back,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: watch Sling TV and enjoy this the way that it
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: is meant to be enjoyed. Mike get Us started, who
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: do you like? What do you like?
• 40:07
  Speaker 7: This number is yo yod a little bit at settling
• 40:09
  Speaker 7: in at Bama lay in a point and a half
• 40:11
  Speaker 7: at about even money.
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: I'm comfortable with that.
• 40:13
  Speaker 7: They're going to close as the first road favorite in
• 40:16
  Speaker 7: the twelve team college Fotball Playoff era, and for good reason.
• 40:19
  Speaker 7: If you look at their first game against Oklahoma, they
• 40:21
  Speaker 7: nearly doubled.
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: Up their yardage.
• 40:23
  Speaker 7: They only lost because they were negative three in the
• 40:25
  Speaker 7: turnover margin, and that's still a concern in terms of
• 40:28
  Speaker 7: protecting football and certainly on special teams. You saw a
• 40:30
  Speaker 7: punk get blocked against Georgia. They got to button that up.
• 40:32
  Speaker 7: But if they don't give the game away and give
• 40:35
  Speaker 7: free yardage and great field position to this Oklahoma offense,
• 40:38
  Speaker 7: I think they're going to be able to pull it
• 40:39
  Speaker 7: out in this spot. If you'll get Parker Fleming stats
• 40:43
  Speaker 7: of war over on Twitter, he puts together the graphic
• 40:45
  Speaker 7: every Sunday morning. Did my team really get beat that bad?
• 40:49
  Speaker 7: In terms of power for teams, Alabama was one of
• 40:51
  Speaker 7: the most egregious losses of the entire season, losing to Oklahoma.
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: I think they get it right here.
• 40:55
  Speaker 7: I think the addition to jam Miller opens up this offense.
• 40:58
  Speaker 7: If they can get to twenty four points. I think
• 41:00
  Speaker 7: Oklahoma is going to struggle to stay with them. They're
• 41:03
  Speaker 7: going to win this by let's call it five to
• 41:05
  Speaker 7: seven points. It's going to be a bit of a
• 41:07
  Speaker 7: rock fight. It's not going to be necessarily that beautiful
• 41:09
  Speaker 7: brand of offensive football that bring in the casuals.
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: But I think Alabama gets it done.
• 41:14
  Speaker 7: I have a lot of faith and grub and to Boor,
• 41:15
  Speaker 7: it's a reason why he got brought from the Pacific
• 41:17
  Speaker 7: Northwest down to the Deep South.
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: He's a great offensive mind. He'll fix things.
• 41:21
  Speaker 7: Don't get tied into that recency bias of how poor
• 41:24
  Speaker 7: they played against Georgia. This is a team that can
• 41:27
  Speaker 7: bounce back. They have the weapons to do it.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: And I was going to get caught up in that,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: and I was ready to mash the button on Oklahoma.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: You may have talked me off of that. But one
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: thing I do like, and this will be my play,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: is a John Matteer. Anytime touchdown at plus one point
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: fifteen seven rushing touchdowns on the season, their offense goes
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: as he's as he goes. To remember, this was a
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Heisman favorite before that hand injury. He can still get
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: it done with his legs. I like him to rush
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: into the end zone. Kendra, wrap us up.
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: Talk about being objective, but I'm all over the tide here.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: I've watched so much Alabama football over the years, whether
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: it was by choice or not. They've kicked ass for
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: over ten years now. I'm not gonna fade them in
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: the postseason. They feel like the better side here. If
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: you watched a lot of SEC football like myself, this year,
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma got really lucky at times, super lucky at times,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: and in positions I did not think that they would
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: find themselves in as well. So I'm gonna go with
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: Materia for an interception, just because they do think when
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: he gets frustrated, he can get a little lazy with
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: the football.
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: That hand injury did not help him out whatsoever.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: With the price, it's a little steep, but if you're
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: gonna parlay it, I think it adds to some action
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: and it's probably something I could see myself putting some
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: pretty decent money behind.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Holiday season is coming up, and if you find yourself
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: at a let's gather around the table and play a
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: board game while the game is on. Kind of how
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: sling TV is your solution to instant access for live
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: TV starting as low as four ninety nine, and this
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: works for more than just the college football playoff. This
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: also covers our world with the NFL for Monday night
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: football and remember we have Saturday NFL games as well
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: on ESPN and playoff games. There isn't a better time
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: to acquaint yourself with the one, three, and seven day
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to Orange. One day
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: pass restrictions apply. Mike, Thank you so much. Crush it
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: for BBOC and we'll see you back between sometime between
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: very soon and perhaps Stucky's next kid.
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: Appreciate it. Thanks for having me time.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: For our Plant the Flag games presented by Draft Kings.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: The crown is yours.
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: And shut up.
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that day, Matt.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you came ready for this or
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: if you just want to argue with us about the
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: picks that we have, but you are our guest today.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore. By the way, you can follow him on
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Buckets day after day, our daily NBA betting podcast where
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore orchestrates a phenomenal pod nearly every single day
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: of the week. We appreciate that. Matt, do you have
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: plant the flag game for us in honor of Stucky
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: who is out with child?
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: Oh man, Now that it's Stucky, I need to bet
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: on like the absolute ugliest dog in existence. Give me
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: a minute and I'll find it a word.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: I think Kendra might be taking the cake on ugliest
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: dog this week, although would that be the ugliest dog
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: might be the Las Vegas Raiders. I don't know anybody
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: that wants to take the Raiders plus fourteen and a
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: half would be the stinkiest ugliest dog of the week,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: no doubt.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: Can we talk about how the Raiders are more of
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: a dog than the fucking Philip Rivers led Indianapolis Colts.
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: It was thirteen close? It what thirteen and a half?
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: The Raiders are that bad? Like, are we serious? That's
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: insane to me. Could you imagine me sitting here five
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: months ago and being like, yeah, the Raiders are actually
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: going to be more of a dog to the Texans
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: in Week sixteen than the Philip Rivers led Indianapolis Colts.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it also speaks the thing how good
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Houston has been too. And you have a defense that's
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: this good, taking on a quarterback that can't stop turning
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: the ball over. I think that's how you can.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: If I have to go to Houston for the playoffs,
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: I will be the most miserable.
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: Person on this show. Anyways, I want the Chargers at home.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Please, Matt Or would you like to plant your flag
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: this week?
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: Oh, I'm going Broncos.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: Oh the Denver Broncos.
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: Broncos master three is we're up on my flag. Look,
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: this Jacks team's not good. They've been lucky all season.
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: Their fumble luck has been insane. Like they may, they
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: make to they may completely in consequently they play, they
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: make the dumbest decisions possible. Like there's a bunch of
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: frauds in the NFL. Like I'm a Chiefs fan and
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: we're out, and so I could say it, all of
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: you are frauds. Every single one of you are frauds.
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: Every team in the NFL completely fraudulent. This season doesn't count.
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: It needs an asterisk.
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: I was gonna ask who pissed in your corn flakes?
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: But I already know.
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Broncos minus three. This team is. I don't
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: know what it's going to take this for the market
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: to accurately rate Denver. Look, I'm a chieved fan. Why
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: do I want to hype up Denver? But I will
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: tell you that the market is consistently underrated them weeks
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: and weeks and weeks. And I understand why it's bon Nicks,
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: but unfortunately Bonex is playing great football.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: I think they get to the playoffs and they get exposed,
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: but this Jacksonville team is not going to be the
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: team to do it. If we do home field flip
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: on this and we wind up with where this game
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: is currently kind of projected to be at, Like, I
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: just I can't get there, Like, under no circumstances can
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: I get to where this line should be what it is,
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: given how Denver has played on both sides of the ball.
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence in altitude in December against this defense, Why
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: on earth do you want this? Why on earth is
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: this number nine? Like I cannot get to a spot
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: the Broncos on I do four and a half flip
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: for home field, I think this should be four and
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: a half five. I think this should actually probably be
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: closer to six because I think the Broncos should be
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: favored by a point on neutral Jacksonville is not going.
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: They have not been good all year. Trevor Lawrence is
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: going to get destroyed by that defense. Nick Beninito is
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: gonna eat him up. I'll take the Broncos. This is market.
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: The market is still behind on Denver.
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: Wow, keep pay in, keep paying.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: This is a Jaguars podcast. Some respect here.
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: No, keep payton That's what that's what we want. That's
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: what we want.
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, you guys lead the number of fans that
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: have gotten zombie rabies. That's cool. You got that going
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: for You got the you lead in. You lead in
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: tattoos that are likely drawn in some sort of illegal
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: ink that gives you skim poisoning amongst your fans. So
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: that's cool. Got that going.
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: I've got Jacksonville tattoos. I'm still balling.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: Our dogs are named after this team, Oh dare you?
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: But my apartment is Jacksonville Jaguars themed.
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: That's amazing.
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: In terms of the advanced stats, these two teams are
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: a complete and utter mirror of each other in terms
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: of their some what ineptitude on putting together what is
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: a requisite Super Bowl level offense, but having the defense
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: that can absolutely carry you. So defensive EPA per drive.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: The Jags are six, the Broncos are eighth, so the
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Jags are better defensive points per drive. You have the
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: Jags at six the Broncos at third, so neck and
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: neck there, But the Jags kendra your squad thirty two
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: points per game over the last five So I think
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: some of these offensive numbers lately are a little bit
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: skewed by how bad they were early in the season totally.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: And the other thing for me here is that I
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: think the Broncos are due for a loss, right Like
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: they looked good against the Packers, only beat the Raiders
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: twenty four to seventeen, beat the Commanders by a point,
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs game walk off field goal, other Raiders game
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: ten to seven, the game before that, Broncos eighteen fifteen
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: to a Texans team that was just kind of on
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: the up.
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: And up, like they beat the Giants by a point.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: I don't believe that this Broncos team is consistent as
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: their winning stretch says that they are. And the other
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: thing here is that, like, sure, the Chiefs are relying
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: on Gardner Minshew and are eliminated from the playoffs now,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: but Broncos look ahead to two divisional games between the
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Chargers. After that, the Jags have the
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Colts and the Titans, like could be an absolute look
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: ahead spot for the Broncos to finally lose one. It's
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: not that I think that the Jags are these world
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: beaters who are scoring all of these points and Trevor
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: Lawrence is finally arrived thing. It's more so just the
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: Broncos luck has to run out at some point.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Are the number one luckiest team in Nick Giffen's luck
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: rankings as well. Keep that in mind.
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: I look, I hear you, Sam Hoppins Composite Power rankings
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: make this on neutral one point eight, which sounds about
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: right to meybe like Broncos minus one point eight. But
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: then you got to throw in home field advantage then
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: for the Broncos in again altitude December. Do you you
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: want the warm weather team going into Denver in December
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: trying to get this win.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The fact that I'm I'm definitely not betting the
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Broncos here. For me, it's Jags plus three or pass,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: but I have not bet it yet. And the fact
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: that it's sitting at such a favorable key number and
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not pulling the trigger means that I'm also still
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: holding back a little bit on this Jags team.
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: So everybody shut up.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: It is seventy degrees in Denver right now, and it
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: is going to be sixty on Sunday.
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: Shut the fuck up with your weather bullshit. No, get
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: out of here.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I live here.
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: It does not feel like that. It will not feel like.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: Oh man, it's fifty five.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: Degrees and you're wearing a beanie.
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: Wearing all that is. It's cold here. I'm you brought
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: this heat in the head, Kendra.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: I live in Boston and it's snowing. It's thirteen degrees outside.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna give out my plant the flag
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: and we going Brown's plus ten. Uh?
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: Did you guys just show uh?
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Go ahead, Kendra? Go ahead?
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, you both you We'll plan this show
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: to show up and be like, how can we bully
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Kendra collectively this week?
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: Because it will make for good content. I know that's
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: what you did. I know you two. On the same
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: show you schemed.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: You were like, let's crap on the Jags and let's
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: steal her look ahead pick from Sunday.
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: That'll be great.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: We call that a dribble handoff on the other show
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: that we do.
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, get down, hell yeah, all right?
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: Who you got, Kendre, I was all over the Broncos
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: on or all over the Browns on Sunday plus the ten.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: I'm still on the Browns here. I logged Don to
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: fill in our notes and Cravits had Browns plus ten.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Even though I would all in on the Browns on
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: our show on Sunday, he tried to. He tried to
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: pry them from my cold dead hands. But you know,
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: since I got to the window on the Seahawks, you
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: can have the Browns.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: Oh okay, awesome, Well then let me get in that
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: cap Let me give you my cap on what thank
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: you for that? By the way, because I was going
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: to force feed everybody the Sad Cats and the Carona
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Panthers at plus three? Uh, but yeah, let's go with
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: ten is one of the key numbers that we look for.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: And if this were to draw up to nine and
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: a half by Wednesday or Thursday, I would be kicking
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: myself that I didn't get that insurance. Ten ten and
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: a half's might pop up, But rarely do we see
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: NFL games stick on those key numbers for very long,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: and we know the Browns are a different animal at
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: home this season alone, four and two against the spread
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: in Cleveland, one and six against the spread anywhere else. Buffalo,
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: also off of the game of their lives, had to
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: expend a lot of energy emotionally physically. They're down twenty
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: one against their fiercest rival currently in the AFC East.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: It is a letdown spot for Buffalo against the defense
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: that Wen trust and have throughout the season when they
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: are at home. So give me the Brownies and a
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: bad quarterback in Shador Sanders at plus ten co sign
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Napsley good with that, matt Any pushback.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen's four and one after a fourth quarter comeback
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: ats Yeah, he doesn't get caught. I was wondering, like,
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: is that a bad spot for I'm actually surprised he
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: doesn't have more of those.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: But this is one that will definitely be talking to
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Evan about in just a second. But Josh Allen is
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: a fat favorite. I don't think is how you want
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: to bet them? Those are plant the Flag games presented
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: by Draft Kings. Actually, Kendra, since well, would you like
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: to double down on the Seattle Seahawks. I need to
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: make sure I'm writing this down because I'm not giving
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: you proper credit on our Sunday recap show. So this
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: is getting logged in my notes. Seattle plus one is
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: that your plant the flag game.
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: Let's go with it.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: It's already in the app for me. So yeah, I planted.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: I planted my flag, all right.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: So we've got Kendra at plus one, Matt Moore in
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: place of Stuckey Broncos minus three, and I have stolen
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: the Browns plus ten. Those are those are planing flat
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: games presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. Time for
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: the main event. No betting week can start without it.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: It's the primer. Courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: the show. Do you have a dog named Jackson?
• 54:15
  Speaker 6: I do not have a dog name Jackson. I did
• 54:17
  Speaker 6: have a cat named Parlay. But that is that is
• 54:20
  Speaker 6: the situation. I will leave right now. You guys have
• 54:22
  Speaker 6: asked me a bunch of questions, so let me just
• 54:25
  Speaker 6: roll off some answers to your wonderful questions. So we
• 54:28
  Speaker 6: talked about fading open as a dog closed as a favorite.
• 54:31
  Speaker 6: It's like forty seven percent since twenty nineteen and about
• 54:35
  Speaker 6: like four or five games under five hundred this year.
• 54:37
  Speaker 6: If you toss in division in that it's about the
• 54:40
  Speaker 6: same kind of like five games or so under five hundred.
• 54:43
  Speaker 6: It's usually a pretty bad sign. And this is using
• 54:47
  Speaker 6: mostly look ahead, open to whatever clothes would be. So
• 54:52
  Speaker 6: there's a few games that fit in that spot this week,
• 54:54
  Speaker 6: but yeah, not the best sign going forward. I'll say
• 54:58
  Speaker 6: one other thing you guys mentioned. McVeigh on short rest
• 55:01
  Speaker 6: seventeen and eight against the spread, so pretty dang good.
• 55:06
  Speaker 6: And Stafford six and oh in his career against Seattle
• 55:09
  Speaker 6: covering the spread by over five points per game, so
• 55:12
  Speaker 6: decent spot. Obviously, No Puka, I mean, I'm sorry, No DeVante,
• 55:16
  Speaker 6: And the note DeVante thing I think is massive in
• 55:19
  Speaker 6: terms of red zone target its goal line work, like
• 55:21
  Speaker 6: all that stuff leads the league in the NFL, so
• 55:23
  Speaker 6: definitely gonna have to change how they run there. The
• 55:26
  Speaker 6: one other one that match just mentioned pretty great, so
• 55:29
  Speaker 6: Bills and Falcons both off fourteen plus point Cobra comebacks
• 55:34
  Speaker 6: teams in that spot fifty nine and seventy eight last decade,
• 55:37
  Speaker 6: but Buffalo five and oh straight up and against the
• 55:40
  Speaker 6: spread and that spot all since twenty nineteen, So that's Josh.
• 55:43
  Speaker 6: So that is the right call there, But again, tough
• 55:46
  Speaker 6: spot overall, but that is true.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: What about Josh Allen as a big favorite. I know
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: I've seen that one on the primer in the past.
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, not great.
• 55:55
  Speaker 6: I'd have to pull that in a second, but I
• 55:57
  Speaker 6: know historically hasn't been great as a big favorite, especially
• 56:00
  Speaker 6: laying ten on the road. So I'll have that in
• 56:02
  Speaker 6: a little bit.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Last one for me, Andy Reid with a backup quarterback.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: We didn't mention the Chiefs Titans game. When the Chiefs
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: are three and a half point road favorites, it feels
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: like this is a Titan spot. But how it has
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: How have Chiefs backups performed under Reid?
• 56:23
  Speaker 6: Actually pretty good? Hold on, I need a quick second.
• 56:25
  Speaker 6: I would think go through all of my stuff here.
• 56:28
  Speaker 6: Since Andy Reid arrived in Case in twenty thirteen, he's
• 56:31
  Speaker 6: gone to a backup quarterback seven times. He's actually four
• 56:34
  Speaker 6: and three straight up and against the spread in those games,
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: so not terrible. And also the thing that usually works
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: with Gardner Minshew is he follows his role in his
• 56:43
  Speaker 6: career as a starter. He's actually four and oh straight
• 56:45
  Speaker 6: up against the spread. As a road favorite, nine and
• 56:48
  Speaker 6: five straight up as a favorite, eight and twenty four
• 56:50
  Speaker 6: as an underdog, so usually follows the role of the line.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, the last time we saw a
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: backup for the Chiefs was the twenty twenty three playoff
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: game against the Jaguars in Kansas City when Patrick Mahomes
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: went out for a little bit in the fourth quarter
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: and Blaine Gabbert came in and secured that win for them.
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: If I'm not mistaken, believe that's correct.
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but we had some chat Henny games in there
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: too in the past.
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was anything as possible.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know. Part of it is that the Chiefs
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: have had good backup quarterbacks over the years. That definitely
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: helps in all of this.
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: The Jags trash Chad Honey and Blaine Gabbert.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: We know Minshew can cover a spread here in.
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: The Gardner minshewe Oh my god, yep.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: Anything else for the professor before we cut him loose? Uh?
• 57:39
  Speaker 6: I mean Baker five and zero straight up versus Caroline
• 57:42
  Speaker 6: in his career, which is pretty decent for that spot.
• 57:45
  Speaker 6: And here's the great one. Panthers going for their eighth
• 57:47
  Speaker 6: win as an underdog. Chiefs going for their eighth loss
• 57:50
  Speaker 6: as a favorite. Both very historical in their own rights.
• 57:54
  Speaker 6: In case he's lost six straight against the spread, all
• 57:56
  Speaker 6: sorts of fun stuff there. I will say this the
• 57:59
  Speaker 6: Denver angle. So Denver has obviously won eleven consecutive games,
• 58:03
  Speaker 6: but hey, Jacksonville won five straight and covered five straight.
• 58:08
  Speaker 6: We've only seen that situation like three times since nineteen ninety,
• 58:12
  Speaker 6: and not since the two thousand and seven AFC title
• 58:14
  Speaker 6: game Patriots Chargers. So a very unique spot, and the
• 58:18
  Speaker 6: beware on Denver since nineteen ninety teams on an eleven
• 58:22
  Speaker 6: plus game win streak fourteen thirty six and two against
• 58:26
  Speaker 6: the spread. But usually I would say I'd have to look.
• 58:29
  Speaker 6: I bet you that spreads much higher historically as well
• 58:33
  Speaker 6: than just a three point spread.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah anything, Thank you so much. Go check out the primer.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: It's the only way to start the betting week properly.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: producers David Payne and Gifford Gold. The Favorites. We'll return
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: on Thursday right here on the Action Network YouTube page,
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: where we talk Week sixteen best bets in the NFL
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: and our two Kings and a Queen parlay gets nominated.
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: We'll see you back here next time. On the Favorites
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: presented by Draft Gangs, we are out. Thank you Matt Moore, goodbye,
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: go back to bucket.
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler