Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Just Failed (Here’s Why That Matters) | Simply SatoSHE

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Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Just Failed (Here’s Why That Matters) | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Happy new year, Bitcoin fam Ding Dong.
• 0:03
  The four year cycle is officially dead.
• 0:05
  Or is it? For over a decade, Bitcoin has
• 0:08
  followed a rhythm so reliable it almost became mythological.
• 0:12
  But did 2025 kill the dreams of Ogs and new coiners with a giant
• 0:17
  red candle where it wasn't supposed to be?
• 0:21
  You weren't supposed to do that. What the fuck happened to the
• 0:24
  price of Bitcoin last year and what does 2026 have in store?
• 0:28
  We are in unchecked carted territory, but we're not lost at
• 0:32
  sea. I'm Sophie.
• 0:34
  This is Satoshi and we will break it all down for you.
• 0:36
  So stick around. Every four years.
• 0:39
  Bitcoin has followed the reliable prophecy of the having
• 0:42
  cycle and it went something like this.
• 0:44
  Having hype, blow off top, brutal crash, repeat.
• 0:49
  And since the first go around, Bitcoiners have literally
• 0:52
  planned their financial lives around this previously proven
• 0:55
  theory. Traders, Twitter heads and
• 0:57
  podcasters all built their careers on it.
• 1:00
  Funds modeled entire strategies around it.
• 1:03
  But then came 2025. No euphoric highs, but also no
• 1:08
  80% draw down. Just something unexpected.
• 1:12
  So the question everyone's asking is simple.
• 1:14
  Did 2025 finally break bitcoins 4 year cycle?
• 1:18
  Check out what Jeff Ross has to say about.
• 1:20
  It I see people still asking this is the four year cycle
• 1:22
  dead? And I'm like, of course it's
• 1:24
  dead. It's it's, it's of course it is.
• 1:26
  Like it's not even a question about it.
• 1:28
  Yes, but keep watching, there's a lot more to the story.
• 1:32
  It died because the economy is not in this four year cycle
• 1:36
  anymore. So the question is, is what is
• 1:38
  going to happen going forward and that's stuff we can probably
• 1:41
  talk about. First, let's get something
• 1:43
  straight. The Bitcoin four year cycle was
• 1:45
  never a crystal ball for the price, as much as we would like
• 1:48
  to think that it was. It is actually a predictor of
• 1:51
  bitcoins mechanics. Every four years, bitcoins block
• 1:54
  subsidy gets cut in half. Less new supply hits the market.
• 1:58
  While demand historically stayed the same or increased.
• 2:02
  That supply shock drove parabolic bull runs, retail
• 2:07
  FOMO, and then violent crashes as leverage speculation unwound.
• 2:11
  Every Bitcoin epoch has had the same movie with different
• 2:15
  actors, but it's important to keep in mind that there were
• 2:17
  only four halvings in the history of Bitcoin to even
• 2:20
  analyze in the first place. We've had limited sample size.
• 2:24
  It's still a young asset in Bitcoin, so for people to draw
• 2:28
  conclusions about how Bitcoin has to trade with a sample size
• 2:32
  of four is not statistically significant.
• 2:34
  Moreover, some of those early examples, as you know, Bitcoin
• 2:38
  was effectively a science project.
• 2:39
  The 2024 having actually came right on schedule, so naturally
• 2:43
  much of the market explained the same playbook.
• 2:46
  Explosive upside starting in late 2024, a euphoric top in
• 2:51
  2025, and then a crash to reset the cycle.
• 2:55
  Right? Except it didn't happen exactly
• 2:59
  the way that we all thought it would.
• 3:01
  The price moved up, but not insanely like it has in the past
• 3:07
  years. Volatility compressed and the
• 3:09
  blow off top never showed up. Instead of mania, we got
• 3:13
  absorption. As Bitcoin matures, what have
• 3:16
  you seen happen? You've seen Bitcoin start to
• 3:19
  slay these what American Hollow calls the sacred cows of
• 3:22
  Bitcoin. Things like, oh, we'll never go
• 3:25
  before below the prior all time high, which we did in, you know,
• 3:28
  2021, or we'll never make a a new all time high before the
• 3:33
  halving, which we did. So what changed?
• 3:37
  Here's the uncomfortable truth. What the truth?
• 3:39
  You can't. Handle the truth.
• 3:41
  Bitcoin didn't change at all, but the market around Bitcoin
• 3:46
  did. Three big things happened.
• 3:48
  First, institutional gravity Spot ETFs, pension exposure,
• 3:53
  balance sheet allocations. This isn't just retail anymore.
• 3:56
  It's slow patient capital. Retail investors historically
• 4:02
  are very much momentum based. If it's up, they're buying.
• 4:05
  If it's down, they're selling, right?
• 4:07
  Institutions in their planned documents actually have the
• 4:12
  opposite built in. If it's down and it's in the
• 4:14
  plan, they actually have to buy to reset to their what they call
• 4:18
  their strategic asset allocation.
• 4:21
  And so I think that that feature has already started to play into
• 4:25
  the decrease in the volatility of Bitcoin thus far. 2nd
• 4:29
  liquidity cycles matter more than the halvings now Bitcoin is
• 4:33
  no longer isolated, it trades inside a global macro system.
• 4:38
  Interest rates, dollar liquidity, sovereign debt
• 4:41
  stress. We used to never care about this
• 4:43
  stuff as Bitcoiners, but now the big boys have entered the chat
• 4:48
  and it's not just fun and memes anymore.
• 4:52
  The halving still matters, but it's no longer the only force.
• 4:56
  I think the four year cycle is being replaced by a 10 year
• 5:00
  grind by which I mean there are big new forces in the world.
• 5:04
  They started coming in with the launch of the ETF in January of
• 5:07
  2024. They were accelerated by
• 5:09
  regulatory progress in January of this year.
• 5:12
  We have the growth of stable coins and tokenization.
• 5:15
  I think those forces are bigger and stronger than the forces
• 5:18
  that historically caused the four year cycle. 3rd Bitcoin is,
• 5:23
  as I alluded to a little earlier, maturing.
• 5:26
  Early cycles were price discovery.
• 5:28
  This cycle looks more like capital reallocation, less
• 5:32
  fireworks, more foundation. It's like we're past the
• 5:35
  honeymoon phase of our relationship with Bitcoin and
• 5:38
  have now started to settle down and have a family.
• 5:41
  And that's actually a great thing, especially in the long
• 5:44
  run. Even if in the short term it
• 5:45
  feels like you'll never have fun with your boys again, you will.
• 5:49
  What I learned in 2025 is that the reason for Bitcoins
• 5:52
  existence is more important today than ever.
• 5:56
  It's not less important because the price didn't hit your
• 5:59
  target. It's more important because the
• 6:00
  conditions that created Bitcoin are intensifying.
• 6:03
  The surveillance is increasing, the control is tightening and
• 6:06
  the debasement is accelerating. And so Bitcoin isn't less
• 6:09
  relevant, it's more relevant than a year ago and.
• 6:12
  Surveillance. This is definitely increasing.
• 6:15
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• 6:18
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• 6:21
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• 6:22
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• 8:06
  Here's the answer most people don't want to hear.
• 8:09
  The cycle isn't dead, it's evolving.
• 8:12
  Each having still reduced reduces.
• 8:14
  Goddamn it, he was literally killing Mary.
• 8:20
  Each having still reduces new supply sets long term bullish
• 8:24
  bias and anchors market psychology.
• 8:27
  But the clean textbook pattern on price?
• 8:30
  That's probably gone. Instead of boom bust, repeat,
• 8:34
  we're shifting towards liquidity waves, consolidation and
• 8:39
  structural upside. So fun.
• 8:41
  Bitcoin has graduated. It's behaving less like a meme
• 8:45
  asset college frat boy and more like a monetary infrastructure
• 8:49
  suit wearing politician, except way less corrupt.
• 8:53
  I think the price is the least interesting thing about Bitcoin
• 8:56
  because the reality is you have a real problem.
• 8:59
  Everyone who's using Fiat money has a real problem right now.
• 9:03
  Today, listening or watching to this Fiat money debasement is
• 9:07
  mathematically assured. So what do you do about this?
• 9:12
  Like, what does this look like? You know, when governments spend
• 9:15
  more than they collect in taxes, they borrow when they can
• 9:18
  service the debt, true productive activity, they print.
• 9:23
  And when they print, your purchasing power declines.
• 9:26
  It's just math that when you introduce more units of a money,
• 9:31
  you devalue all existing units of money.
• 9:34
  And if the productivity doesn't keep up, prices go up.
• 9:37
  So this is a problem we have today, and it's mathematically
• 9:41
  assured that this is the path that it's going to follow and
• 9:44
  it's accelerating. So the people that are in charge
• 9:46
  need to create more money to service all debt and to pay for
• 9:51
  the promises they made when you elected them.
• 9:54
  I call it the battle for money. There's a battle for money
• 9:58
  happening right now and you are the subject.
• 10:01
  You're not a participant, you're a subject.
• 10:03
  If you're waiting for a perfect blow off top, followed by a
• 10:07
  guaranteed 80% crash and a clockwork cycle that you can
• 10:11
  trade blind, you may be waiting forever.
• 10:14
  But if you understand the shift, you're looking at Bitcoin not as
• 10:18
  a casino chip, but as a long duration hedge against monetary
• 10:22
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• 10:24
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• 11:05
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• 11:08
  So the irony is this. The moment Bitcoin became boring
• 11:13
  is the moment that it truly became dangerous to the existing
• 11:17
  system. I think things look very good
• 11:19
  for a reversal of fortune. So just the way that 2025
• 11:23
  surprise to the downside for the US economy, which is still in a
• 11:26
  contraction and for Bitcoin, which is bearish, very strongly
• 11:30
  bearish right now, although I think it's close to a bottom, I
• 11:33
  think it's at or near a bottom at these levels.
• 11:35
  I think 2026 is looking good. And I think that's because the
• 11:38
  One Big Beautiful Bill Act will finally basically start taking
• 11:42
  effect. I think the accounting rules
• 11:44
  that are going to be in place starting in 2026 are going to
• 11:48
  start taking an effect. And I think people shouldn't
• 11:50
  underestimate how strong that impact will be.
• 11:53
  So maybe 2025 didn't kill the cyclical nature of Bitcoin after
• 11:58
  all. The halvings are mathematically
• 12:00
  pre programmed TikTok next epoch maybe should be the same now the
• 12:04
  price action last year exposed who was trying to trade it and
• 12:08
  who actually understands Bitcoin.
• 12:11
  If you want more breakdowns like this macro Bitcoin and the
• 12:14
  forces reshaping money hit the like and subscribe and let me
• 12:18
  know what topic to hit next. Although that topic may be in a
• 12:22
  couple of weeks after I have become a mother to two children.
• 12:28
  So because Jesus Christ. No, my due date is it 2 days.
• 12:34
  But seriously, the cycles may be changing, but this story is just
• 12:39
  getting started. I'll see you in the next 1, so
• 12:42
  remember to stack. Slay and stay bullish, baby.