Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Destroying The World Order That Made America Great + Canada Begins Break Up With The U.S.A.

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Destroying The World Order That Made America Great + Canada Begins Break Up With The U.S.A. · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello,
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  Speaker 1: They're happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the
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  Speaker 1: Chuck Toodcast. So I will. I don't want to call
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  Speaker 1: it jet lag, but I have been quite a bit
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: of course, have been on my own little fun emotional
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: roller coaster, being a Miami Hurricanes fan. Was at the
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: National title game. I have a lot more to share,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: a lot more to say on it, and I will
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: save it for the end. There's also have a diverse
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: you know, I know some of you are saying, Okay,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: college football, we get it. You love your Hurricanes. You
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: know at some point, you know, we like you doing
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit of sports. Can you do some other sports? Well,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry the Hurricanes made it all the way to
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: the title game. I'm sorry I had to take it
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  Speaker 1: all the way to the last day of the year.
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  Speaker 1: I promise I will not do weekly portal updates on
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: who's been signed and who's shown up in spring practice.
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  Speaker 1: But today also happens to be we last night we
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: got to find out about who's the newest members of
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the Baseball Hall of Fame. And you know, I'm a
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: guy of a certain age, which means I have definitive
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: hot takes on Baseball Hall of famers. But all of
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  Speaker 1: that I will put to the end. Let me give
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  Speaker 1: you a quick little table of contents for today's episode. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: we got more fallout from what we discussed on Monday
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  Speaker 1: and this sort of destabilizing moment that we have with
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  Speaker 1: the world order. Uh and UH that is this is
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  Speaker 1: a we're no, We're no to say we're in a
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  Speaker 1: weird place as an understatement, which we've we've been discussed
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  Speaker 1: for quite a bit. Uh. It is a it is
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  Speaker 1: a it is a Wednesday, which means I owe you
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  Speaker 1: a top five lists, and we've got some senate races.
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  Speaker 1: I think to recalibrate a bit, so we will do
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  Speaker 1: a top five list on that. I'll take a few questions.
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  Speaker 1: But before we get into that, look, I I made
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  Speaker 1: a pretty strong case that you know what is happening
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  Speaker 1: right now with Donald Trump, and and that that he
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  Speaker 1: is potentially stumbled, stumbling into a war where he's going
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  Speaker 1: to get We're going to be less safe and less
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  Speaker 1: secure than we've ever been before. And it makes doing
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  Speaker 1: political analysis here quite challenging, right because, look, it's obvious
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  Speaker 1: to anybody that has been a practitioner of campaign politics,
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  Speaker 1: of campaign messaging, anybody with a just a minute interest
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  Speaker 1: and understanding of American political history knows that what Donald
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Trump is doing right now is not good politics, at
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: least if you're judging him by any conventional measure that
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  Speaker 1: we've relied on over the last half century. And before
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: anybody starts screaming, wow, we know Trump, conventional politics doesn't
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: apply to Trump. Yeah, of course, but let me becauve
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  Speaker 1: this isn't some clever, disruptive strategy either, it's erratic, it's destabilizing,
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  Speaker 1: and it's increasingly detached from the basic assumption that have
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: governed American leadership for generations. And you know, look, I
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: did my Monday monologue before we saw this nonsense of
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: a one year presser or whatever you want to call
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: the two hour diatribe that he had before he left
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  Speaker 1: for Davos on Tuesday. But it is you know, this
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  Speaker 1: is why I am dubbing this a man who may
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: have the Yolo virus, which I will get into that
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  Speaker 1: in a minute. But I think what's most unsettling and
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  Speaker 1: striking about this moment is how none of the usual
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: political penalties seem to apply to Trump. And I think
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: this is why we've had such paralysis and responding to
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: what I think is a absolute international and national emergency
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: right now if we want to prevent the entire free
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  Speaker 1: world order from completely cracking. I mean, when you listen
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  Speaker 1: to what Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, had
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  Speaker 1: to say in Davos, you know, this is a country
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  Speaker 1: that is preparing and worrying that it's neighbor to the
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  Speaker 1: south could invade, right And that seemed like ridiculous and
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  Speaker 1: silliness even saying that six months ago, six weeks ago,
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  Speaker 1: maybe even six days ago. But given the situation we're in,
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  Speaker 1: I think everybody is recalculating how they handle Trump. The
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  Speaker 1: appeasement of Donald Trump of the last year by Europe
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  Speaker 1: and the Western world is coming to an end. And
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  Speaker 1: the question is who is he going to get angry
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  Speaker 1: at and punished for it? So far, he continues to
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: attack American taxpayers. When he gets angry at a European
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: response to what he wants to do with Greenland, he
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  Speaker 1: threatens tariffs or increases tariffs. The irony to this is
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  Speaker 1: it does not punish France, and it does not punish
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  Speaker 1: the UK the way he thinks it does. It punishes
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  Speaker 1: all of us all it is all of these tariffs
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  Speaker 1: are paid for by us. Again, the magical math that
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: he keeps trying to claim it is amazing to me
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  Speaker 1: how excited the Secretary of Treasury in the President of
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  Speaker 1: the United States are on how much they've taxed the
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  Speaker 1: American people over the last six months and how much
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  Speaker 1: more taxes the American people are going to be paying
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  Speaker 1: over the next year. And they think this is good politics.
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  Speaker 1: But here we are, and the conventional ways that politicians
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  Speaker 1: get punished, have disappeared. So it raises an uncomfortable question.
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  Speaker 1: What's keeping people who call themselves Trump supporters, especially elected Republicans,
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  Speaker 1: who know what's happening here is wrong, from speaking out. Well,
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  Speaker 1: we know that part of the answer sphere. That's always
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  Speaker 1: been the case, not fear of voters, but fear of
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  Speaker 1: what happens inside the Republican party when dissent becomes visible.
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  Speaker 1: We've seen this movie before. Go back to the first term.
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  Speaker 1: Remember Bob Corker then a Senator from Tennessee. He had
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: want to hear he's a great Tennessee, East Tennessee accent,
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  Speaker 1: and I used to try to impersonate a little bit.
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  Speaker 1: But you know, you know, Chuck, I just I don't
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  Speaker 1: want to have to talk about Trump. But he used
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  Speaker 1: to say he was the one that used that expression
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  Speaker 1: that the White House had become an adult daycare. And
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  Speaker 1: of course Trump explodes, Bob Corker's political career is over,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: and you haven't even heard from Bob Corker. While I
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: understand why he is just out right, he is out
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  Speaker 1: a lot of sort of the Tennessee Republicans of ten
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  Speaker 1: years ago. Lamar Alexander Bob corkor Bill Frist. None of
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  Speaker 1: them have been wanted to get near the Trump era,
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  Speaker 1: and it is and in some ways they've been ostracized
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  Speaker 1: themselves a little bit. So we know why there's so
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  Speaker 1: much silence, right. Silence for many of them feels like
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  Speaker 1: self preservation in the moment that we're in. But it
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  Speaker 1: comes with a huge cost, because if you believe what
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  Speaker 1: Trump is doing is reckless, even dangerous, staying silent doesn't
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  Speaker 1: make you neutral, it makes you complicit with voters. Eventually,
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  Speaker 1: voters are going to ask the most basic question, where
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  Speaker 1: were the guardrails? And in this case, there is one guardrail, Congress.
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  Speaker 1: It's the only one that's going to work here, okay,
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  Speaker 1: And that's really the heart of the problem. The guardrails
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  Speaker 1: that the founders gave us, the Constitution, the separation of powers,
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  Speaker 1: institutional norms. They don't activate themselves, right, You got to
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  Speaker 1: have human beings to do it. Institutions are just paper
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  Speaker 1: without people willing to defend them. And paper does not
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  Speaker 1: restrain power. Certainly, paper does not restrain Donald John Trump.
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  Speaker 1: People will And one of my biggest fears right now
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  Speaker 1: is that, well, it's how numb we've become to all
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  Speaker 1: this and see and you see it even in the
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  Speaker 1: reaction that I've gotten from you know, the crowd that
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  Speaker 1: just wants to tune it all out right. Oh, you know,
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  Speaker 1: politics has just gotten crazy, and Trump's just the lead
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  Speaker 1: crazy guy. You're like, no, no, no, no, this is different
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  Speaker 1: and dangerous. Trump's norm breaking, unfortunately, is barely registering right now.
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  Speaker 1: My new favorite was sort of instead of Trump derangement syndrome,
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  Speaker 1: we have almost Trump exhaustion syndrome, as I think is
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  Speaker 1: what the Atlantic dubbed it. And there is this exhaustion
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  Speaker 1: is almost as bad as appeasement, because in some way
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  Speaker 1: to deal with exhaustion, you end up appeasing and that
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  Speaker 1: is not a healthy reaction either. But that's where we are.
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  Speaker 1: Because each one of these violations that Trump makes, gets absorbed,
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  Speaker 1: gets rationalized, gets dismissed, is just another Trump era. The headline.
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  Speaker 1: He now operates in an environment where the consequences frankly
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  Speaker 1: feel optional, and from his perspective, why wouldn't they. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: he incited riot on January sixth and almost overturned an election.
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  Speaker 1: He was impeached, he wasn't convicted, and then he was
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  Speaker 1: elected president again. So what political lesson do you take
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: from that? If you're Donald Trump, probably the following, the
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  Speaker 1: more radical, the better. Never give in, never give up.
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  Speaker 1: What feels impossible today becomes someone else's capitulation tomorrow. And
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: that's what he's counting on with Greenland here. And it's
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  Speaker 1: interesting we're watching and I don't know what we're seeing
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  Speaker 1: with the European and Western leaders right now, whether we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing the Bob Corkers of Europe speaking out like many
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  Speaker 1: Republicans spoke out during the crazy of the first term,
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  Speaker 1: and you had you had more erected guardrails around him,
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  Speaker 1: whether it was John Kelly or Ryank's previous or Rex
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Tillerson or even Jared Kushner at times, Gary Kohane, Right,
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  Speaker 1: you had a Siri, you know in that cabinet, which
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Mike Pence. Of course, I'm of two minds on this, right,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: is this is Europe now? Finally? Is this is Europe
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: one point zero? And it just like with Trump one
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  Speaker 1: point zero? Or are they serious? And if they're serious,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: we all have to be both nervous and at the
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: same time. The more serious the Europeans get, does it
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  Speaker 1: actually strengthened the spine of nervous Republicans who have been
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: afraid but so far right. That's why he's behaving the
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: way he is. So even those of us in the
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: media and in politics who've warned for years that this
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: behavior is dangerous, we've become numbed by the repetition. Many
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: of the worst case scenarios so far haven't fully materialized,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: but damage doesn't have to be immediate to be real.
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  Speaker 1: Trump has steadily weakened American credibility abroad in ways that
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  Speaker 1: are subtle, cumulative, and now harder to reverse than ever before.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: And because you know it was one thing to reverse
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: it after one term, it's much harder after two. And
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: because there's no single moment when the bill comes due,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the reckoning may arrive too late to stop. Now here's
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the paradox. One year into Trump two point zero. Periodically, politically,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: he's in terrible shape, just terrible shape. And under normal
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: circumstances this would matter because when public sentiment turns through polls, elections,
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  Speaker 1: or pressure. All of this has happened, right, He got
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: a disastrous twenty twenty five election result, every special election
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: has gone against him. His numbers are as low as
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  Speaker 1: they've ever been. Normally under those circumstances. When it happened
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: at George W. Bush, he decided to fade a bit
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: in the background. Barack Obama fade a bit in the background.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: What happened to the party in power? Party in power
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: sought a little distance from the president. Right, you're not
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: seeing that happen at the moment. Trump has remade the
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Republican Party in his image. There are no Bob Corkers.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: They're not as many Corkers right. Some of his biggest
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: critics from Trump one point zero have become surrogates, Ted Cruz,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, Some just simply headed for the exits are
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: heading for the exits, Tom Tillis, Mitch McConnell. And then
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: there is a couple that just survive on political islands.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: They're visible, but they're powerless. Think Lisa Murkowski or Thomas Massy.
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  Speaker 1: So what's left to be a check on the damage
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: that he's inflicting. Well, we did get a little clue
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  Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning, And on Tuesday it's the markets. It's
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: the economy in general. Right, when foreign policy guardrails fail,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: the only one that reliably moves voters is the guardrail
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: of the wallet. But even that has its limits. Most
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Americans don't connect alliance erosion overseas to higher prices or
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: diminished security until it's unavoidable. But the stock market can
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: put a big spotlight on this issue. And the stock
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: market just cratered Tuesday. And we'll see if that changes
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: his tune when he actually heads to Davos to talk
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Greenland later this week. Because what the markets understand and
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: what equity understands is that trade wars turn into security
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: nightmares much faster than we'd like to admit. We are
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: not a long view political culture which brings us to history.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: You know. One of the things about so called the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: American consensus is actually how narrow the consensus ends up being,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: even as it sort of ends up being representative of
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: all of us at some point. So the point being
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: is this, it's usually fifty two or fifty five percent
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: of the population that help us with our quote American consensus.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: It's not like a seventy percent landslide. An example of
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: this in nineteen fifty two, when Republicans finally rejected isolationism
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: and American first protectionism by nominating Dwight Eisenhower. Over where
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the base of the party wanted to be right. They
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: didn't do that out of purity, and they didn't do
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: that out of a total rejection of isolationism. They actually
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: just did it out of desperation because they were tired
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: of losing the presidency after twenty four years. Remember when
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Eisenhower gets elected in fifty two, Republicans hadn't won a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: presidential election since nineteen twenty eight. Let me repeat fifty two.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: They elect Eisenhower. They hadn't elected president in twenty eight.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: So it took that Republican Party a generation to realize
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: isolationism and protectionism is terrible politics and more importantly, terrible
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: for the country. Is it going to take another twenty
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: four years first to learn this time? And what's the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: country going to look like after twenty four years of
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: having to learn that lesson? We'll see. But the point
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: was it was a narrow vote, right, It wasn't really
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: a huge consensus, right, Republicans rallied around Eisenhower, not out
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: of some sort of ideological agreement, but just out of
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: a desperation to win. I point out that history because
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: that actually is what I use to give myself optimism.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: You know that I always go back into history and say, well,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: that was something similar and we eventually figured it out,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: and YadA YadA ya. This episode of the Chuck Podcast
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  Speaker 1: slash chuck. But it does raise a more urgent question,
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  Speaker 1: how do we get from here to there in one piece?
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  Speaker 1: Because the truth is the only institution capable of restraining
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: the damage Trump is doing to America's role in the
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: world is Congress, and Congress is failing. We've pointed this
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: out no numerous times, and when Congress and the courts
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: choose not to act I mean the courts also are failing.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: They are still not going to come out with their
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: terra fruoling for another month. We have another month where
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: you got Scott Bessett trying to trying to make the
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: tariff compare the illegal tariffs that Trump has been like
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: that are likely illegal if you read the letter of
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: the law and the constitution that somehow it's comparable to Obamacare,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: and it was Obama's signature initiative. No whether the Supreme
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Court would overturn it, this is Trump's signature initiative. First
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: of all, Scott Bessett, you want to make raising taxes
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: on the American people ten to twenty five percent a
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: signature accomplishment of Donald Trump. That is some messaging you
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: got there. Brother. I don't know if I would want
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: to make tax sikes my signature signature thing, but it is.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: That is an interesting spin. But the courts are delaying
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: yet another month before they're going to rule. And the
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: longer they delay, the harder it is to unwind these things,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: and the more chaos following the Constitution may create. And
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: then if you start making, you decide, well, oh boy,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: the toothpaste is out of the tube. So even though
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: we should rule it as unconstitutional, we're not because we
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: don't want to create chaos that would be that would
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: be one of the first signs that the Republic is
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: failing if we have a judiciary that is behaving behaving
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: that way. But the fact is, when Congress chooses not
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: to act, it's not the democracy who's going to collapse overnight.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: It doesn't, but it does hollow it out. And that's
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: when citizens begin to feel powerless, right, and all that's
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: left are elections, and hopefully citizens will use elections to
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: do this and not try to take matters into their
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: own hands. And you know, that's another fear I have
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: understandable fear, but it's one. So maybe the midterms become
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: a revolt something like nineteen seventy four, and that's possible,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: and maybe that sobers up the party. It's what sobered
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: up Republicans post Nixon. But there's a lot of time
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: between now and November of twenty twenty six. And if
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: a president feels untouchable, if he's infected, but what I
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: can only described as the political Yolo virus, because I
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: really think a few things here. He feels untouchable because
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: of what he got away with on January sixth, and
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: he just he beat back this whole thing. Right, it
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: all worked. He shot somebody on Fifth Avenue. Basically he
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: did it, and he was more than forgiven. He was
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: re elected. So he seems untouchable, and we've seen him
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: he does all the only thing. He seems truly concerned
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: about his mortality, which I think creates the wrong focus
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: for him and puts him in a mindset of he's
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: just desperate that he's constantly thinking about a legacy that
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: he thinks he might be leaving sooner than he wants to.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: So the point is elections alone may not be enough
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: in the short term. So we've been here before. Senate
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Republicans choked after the second impeachment. We now know this.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell now says the right things when it comes
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: to Greenland and what's happening to NATO. But he once
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: had the chance to change the trajectory of his party
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: and change, but instead he chose the path of least resistance.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: I've said it before. I assume I don't know if
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: you know. He's tough as nails, Mitch McConnell, and I
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: say that as a compliment and being a congressional leader,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: you've got to have the thickest mick skins, and he
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: has it. But if anything haunts him, I gotta think
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: that decision he made has got to haunt him. Maybe
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: it doesn't, and maybe that I'll let you guys decide
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: what that means, but I gotta think it does. And
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: that choice that he made explains a lot about how
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: we got here, and I don't want to dance around this.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Trump has made America more vulnerable than it's been in decades.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: We are more isolated than at any points before World
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: War Two, and we don't fully grasp what that means, because,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: let's be honest, none of us alive today have lived
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: through that kind of vulnerability. The Trump era has been
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: filled with near missed disasters of his own making, week
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: after week and month after month, right, and it is
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: created a bit of the chicken little mindset, Oh my god,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: what is he doing now? This could be it, this
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: could be it, and we've just you know, we've gotten
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: lucky sometimes, but at some points luck runs out, and
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: the only real question is whether he can be restrained
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: by Congress, the courts, or the voters. Before our luck
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: runs out. And I will say this. The clock is ticking.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: And I'll tell you this judging by what Mark Carney
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: has said, and I want to repeat a few things.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: His speech in Davos in some way feels as if
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: it was clearly aimed directly at Donald Trump and the Americans.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: And I really hope that John Thune reads this word
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: for word. Roger Wicker, these are sort of the the
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Republicans that know what he's doing is bad, but are
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: afraid of speaking out. So Carney argued the following He
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: said that the global order hasn't just transitioned. It's broken
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: to quote him today, I will talk about a rupture
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: in the world order, the end of a pleasant fiction
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: and the beginning of a harsh reality where major geopolitical
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: powers operate with few limits and constraints. The old order
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: is not coming back, and we should not mourn it.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Nostalgia is not a strategy. So then he addressed the
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: weaponization of trade and regarding specifically regarding Greenland, where Trump
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: wants to punish Europe for not acceding to his wishes there,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: and he said this, great powers have begun using economic
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure is coercion,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: supply changes vulnerabilities to be exploited. You cannot live within
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: the source of your subordination. So this gets it to
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: what I've been warning about. When we decide to be
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: isolationists in America first and raise up our barriers, what
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: do you think everybody else is going to do? And
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: that's essentially what Mark Carney is saying. We have no choice.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: And then he talked about that there's a choice now
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: for what he called the middle powers. The middle powers
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: are basically everybody in the first world that isn't China,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Russia or the United States. Here's what he said. He
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: said middle powers must act together because if you are
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: not at the table, you are on the menu. When
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: we only negotiate bilaterally with one of these superpowers, we
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: negotiate from weakness. We accept what is offered. He goes,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: this is not sovereignty, it is the performance of sovereignty
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: while accepting subordination. So then he outlined what he called
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Canada's third path, and he basically said that Canada has
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: shifted towards strategic autonomy. Our closest ally north of the border.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Is basically said, we're tired of the United States treating
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: us like shit and we're going it alone and we're
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: going to have strategic autonomy. So how did he define that? One?
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Trade diversification. So he's got new Canadian partnerships with or
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: without the Americans, with the EU, with China and with
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: katar and I promise you more are coming with the
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Gulf States, with India, with you know, probably Brazil, maybe
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: even some African country. How about on defense, Canada is
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: a huge part of norrad. I mean, let's be honest,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: the Canadian military was in some way seen as sort
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: of just part of the North American security system. Now
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: he's got to join what he calls the European Safe
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Defense Procurement Arrangements, and he's doubling defense spending and they're
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: fast tracking their own investments in AI critical minerals and energy.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: But out to scare the United States? Is that Carney
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: basically saying, all right, we can't rely in the United States.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: We're not you know, and normally the Canadian posture has been,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: you know, they're the mause sleeping next to the elephant,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: and you know, they got to be careful the elephant
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: doesn't acidentally roll over on them. But now they're taking
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: all of this, they're taking these threats more seriously. Whatever
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: he plans to do in Greenland, like I said, they're
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: having to increase their own defense spending. They're war gaming.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: What would happen if the United States invaded from the south. Again,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: that sounds insane except for the rhetoric that our president
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: has been using. But he wants to develop and here's
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: the thing, it's going to leave. So he wants to
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: develop essentially what he calls bridges, right, you know, essentially
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: a diversification of a trading block of these middle countries.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: So he envisions a trading block that would essentially be
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: very similar to the Trans Specific Partnership TPP. Right. That
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: the thing that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump blew up
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: both on the left and the right during the twenty
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: sixteen campaign. It was a it was the idea was
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: to create essentially a check on China. It's going to
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: be led by the United States and Japan and India.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: And it was you know, an all got sort of
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: you know, swept away by the fear of globalization. The
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: popular stuprising on the right, the popular stup rising on
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the left, and then all of a sudden everybody backed
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: away from it, right, mainstream chamber of commerce Republicans backed
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: away from it, and mainstream sort of center left business
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: democrats like Hillary Clinton walked away from it, even though
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: she was the initial champion of this. So he wants
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: to do something similar and essentially create different sort of
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: middle power trading blocks so that if they collaborate together,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: then they can be essentially on a more equal footing
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: when having to negotiate with a Russia, a China, or
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: the United States. But they see themselves as independent, right,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: they see themselves as not having to They do not
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: want to be suckered into these binary relationships with these
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: bigger countries because the terms always suck for these middle powers.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: And there was a time where the United the States
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: was not seen as somebody that was just going to
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: take advantage of any of these middle powers who agreed
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: to be part of our trading blocks. But we were
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: actually using this to create a rules based order. Now,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: of course we have a president that's trying to get
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: rid of the rules based order. He also said something
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: else that was quite striking he said Canada is fully
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: committed to NATO's Article five, and he said it's unwavering.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: And he said that Canada stands firmly with Denmark if
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: they get if they are a piece of land that
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: they control, think Greenland comes under military threat. This is
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: what Donald Trump has done. He has taken our allies
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: and they are actively looking for new defense, new trade
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: partners in order to confront an aggressive United States. I
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: understand a lot of people don't like this, don't like globalization,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: think somehow that America is subsidizing other countries, whether it's
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: subsidizing by being the beat cop. I'm sorry that we
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: do such a poor job of teaching trade and economics
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: that people don't understand how much we've benefited. The fact
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: that Mississippi, which is considered supposedly one of our poorer
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: states in the Union, has a higher standard of living
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: than I think Japan, and I don't think many Americans
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: would would That might shock many Americans. The point is
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: we have thrived being at the top of the heat
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: of this rules based order of global trade. It has
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: benefited other countries, it has raised the standard of living
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: all over the world. But we've benefited a lot. We've
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: benefited in security, we've benefited financially, and now Donald Trump
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: is putting all of that at risk, either because he
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: believes in a failed economic model that was such a
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: failure that it cost the Republican Party twenty four years
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: of being in the wilderness and the presidency, and it's
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: certainly making us less secure. So it is a we'll
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: see what happens to Davos, but this is a very
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: fired up europe I you know, I think European leaders,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I think you you know, we'll see if Donald Trump
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: exploits this. There's definitely a divide among European leaders. Some
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: are trying to find ways. Is there a way to
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: work with him. I ran into a Republican member of
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Congress during my travels over the last couple of days,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: and I I, you know, who says, you know, I'm
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: doing my best to do this or this in Greenland
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: and goes you know, you know, I think there's you know,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: he's got to be satisfied with a treaty that allows
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: for you know, to access to critical minerals and more
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: robust defense spending that we can do via NATO. It's
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: thinking too logically, and the problem we have right now
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: is Trump's not behaving very logically, and there's a group
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: of people around him that aren't interested in restraining him enough,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: or he's got something else going on. Now. I know
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: there's a whole bunch of people out there with you know,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: chit chat about the twenty fifth Amendment all this stuff.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: I actually I view the twenty fifth Amendment as true incapacitation.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Think Woodrow Wilson in the stroke. Think James Garfield, you know,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: essentially alive for about four months as he was dying
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: from the bullet wound. And it was an amendment that
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: was passed when there was when you know, after the
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: Kennedy assassination. You know, it's possible Kennedy could have been
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: kept alive but been a vegetable. Well what would we
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: have done in that situation? And so that you know,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: that was the intent of the of the amendment. So
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I would use it. And I think
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: using it because you think he's just erratic and all that.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, this has been who he's run as. So
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: ultimately it has to come from the small deed. Democracy
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: has to come from the voters, has come from the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: elected officials and there is only one way to restrain
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: him that will keep the Republic that we like, and
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: that is for Congress to do its job, for the
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: for the for these guys to go back and realize
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: what the founders intended when it came to the executive branch,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: and to do their job and to assert their authority here,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: assert their authority on taxing Americans with these tariffs, and
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: assert their authority when it comes to military escapades. But
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: if they don't, then maybe the Republic is crumbling right
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: before our eyes. So on that dour negative note, I
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: did have a few other campaign things that I wanted
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: to get to. I'm gonna save those since I have
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: another podcast on Thursday. I've got a few thoughts on
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro versus Kamala Harris. What do we got going
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: on here? And is anybody gonna win this little No?
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: She said this, no, he said this, and she all
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: of that. I kind of feeling everybody's losing their one two.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: There's an interesting David pluff op ed in the New
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: York Times that didn't get the traction that I thought
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: it would, And I think part of it is that,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump sort of threatening the end of
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: the of the of George H. W's New World Order
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: is clearly more front and center than this. But essentially
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: he was saying that while the party may be in
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: good shape for the midterms, it is nowhere near ready
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: to win the presidential in twenty eight And I think
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: it's an important op ed to deal with, but I
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: want to put a pin in that, take a break,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: bring in get to the other conversation that I did
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: want to spark today with public education, and I want
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: to hear from you guys on this of different ideas
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: and thoughts about sort of reimagining our public school system
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: because I think there's definitely needs some reimagining, definitely need
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: some remodeling for the twenty first century. And I don't
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: think we have near enough innovators and people running for
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: office thinking about this enough. But you'll hear from Gena
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: and Osa, who is somebody who is trying to make
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: this a signature issue of a good natial campaign. So
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: sneaking a break and when we come back Gena and Osa,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away.
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  Speaker 1: in the best shape. My mother single mother, now widow,
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  Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. It is Wednesday, Top
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: five Lists, Top top five, Top Testop. We've had some
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: action in the Senate. I think it's pretty clear that
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: you know, Democrats have now have met the minimum requirement
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: to put the Senate in play. And what do I
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: mean byd the minimum requirement? They've got five Republican seats
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: actually in play in legitimate ways. Right there's North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: and Alaska. Those five all have legitimate, likely Democratic nominees.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: In some cases, the primaries in Texas and Maine may
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: not matter who wins the primary. They're going to be
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: competitive due to sort of Republican problems there as well,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: particularly in Texas. So Democrats need four right to flip
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: the Senate. So they've put five Republican health seats legitimately
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: in play. I still think they need a couple of more.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: You sort of need, you need more on the table
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: if you want to get your four or five, because
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: you're not going to they say you're not going to
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: clean sweep in waveyears there we do see sweeps, so
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: that can happen, but you know they're clean sweepeers having
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: to win some states that Donald Trump won by near
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: double digits or close to double digits, like your Ohio's,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: your Alaska's, your Texas, you know, uh, and and what
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: I just when I just laid out those five seats
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: that that Democrats appear to put in play, he carried
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: four of the five right North Carolina, uh, Ohio, Texas,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: and Alaska. And he got one congressional district in Maine. Right.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: So these are these aren't easy. I think they you know,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: they need to figure out between Florida, Mississippi, Kansas, Iowa,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: those four. I think he's got it. They got to
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: get to two of those four legitimately, uh, legitimately in play.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe they throw in a Kentucky on there. I'm a
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: little skeptical on that, but but the more elon Musk
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: plays around wherever Elon Musk is. He's not good politics.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: I think with swing voters and with independence and the
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: fact that he's dabbling in the Kentucky Senate race might
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: actually uh might actually uh boomerang a little bit because
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: of sort of I think the feeling, the growing feeling
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: that voters have about the power of these tech giants,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: and he in some ways, because he's so famous, he
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: is kind of the avatar for big tech, and I
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: don't think he's good politics. But overall, we do have
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: a bit of a shift in the in the Senate landscape.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: So under that what are my top five most likely
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: to flip? So number one hasn't changed. The North Carolina
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: Senate race, Roy Cooper remains the front runner. We've yet
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: to see a poll with him trailing. He's financially a juggernaut. Look,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: Michael Watley, that republic likely Republican nominee is certainly doing
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: pretty well on the fundraising front. But I still think
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: he's got an uphill battle. The only thing he's got
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: going form of the demographics of North Carolina, Roy Cooper's
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: got almost everything else going for him. Maine, I am,
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: you know, and so North Caroline's on the one spot.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: I'm keeping Maine in the two spot of most likely
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: to flip simply because I'm not convinced Susan Collins is
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: running for reelection. I still think. Look, she filing deadline
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: hasn't passed yet. She has never been this unpopular as
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: she is going into this race. Do I think John
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Thune has basically protected her from a MAGA primary challenge?
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I do. I think Trump at a minimum understands that
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: with Collins, which is why he feels carte blanche to
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: do to basically kill Bill Cassidy's political career. Now, which
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: I think he just did. We'll see. I actually think
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: there's a path for Cassidy if he chooses to take it.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: It's a harder path. It's the Lisa Murkowski path. It's independent,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: and it's something our system desperately needs. I think he's
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: got the stomach and the spine to do it, but
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: it's his only path to re election. I think trying
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: to win inside a Republican primary in the state of
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Louisiana is fools is a fools erran for him, and
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's the way I'd want to
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: go down fighting I'd want to go to on fighting
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: with the biggest electorate I could use, which when you
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: run as an independent, you can maximize who may support
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: SO number one North Carolina, and I think there's a
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: gap growing here. I think the more this political climate
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: deteriorates for Republicans generally, and the lower the President's job
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: rating goes, it feels like the North Carolina race just
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: gets harder and harder, especially now when you have the
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: retiring Senator Tom tillis growing increasingly willing to confront the
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: president on what he's doing, particularly informed policy. I mean
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Tillo's has been leaning in on the concern he has
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: with the saber rattling over Greenland. So North Carolina number one,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: number two main and again, I think the thing to
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: watch for in the next couple of weeks is signs,
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: you know, is there does she decide I'm not going
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: out losing, And I think there's plenty of politicians want
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: to do that. They don't want to go out losing.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: She's been she's been in the Senate since ninety six,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: So I it's my It's it's just my I've I've
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: seen this type of incumbent in the past with polling
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: numbers like this in a political environment where your party
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: political environment is not going to get any better. To me,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: all of the hallmarks of an incumbent that says, I'm
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: not fighting this uphill battle. I'm not gonna do all
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: of the sleepless nights, all of the fundraisers, all the
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: begging for money, because that guy's already tanked my reelection.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: And that guy I'm referring to is Donald Trump. So
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: and if Maine opens up, Maine becomes number one main
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: one in North Carolina would flip if that happened, because
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: I promise you you'd more likely get a mega adjacent
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: maybe not fully mega, you know, but but but somebody
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: that's I don't know if you'd get a a Johnny
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Sanunu type of candidate there, I think you'd end up
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: with something something a bit further to the right, maybe
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: even a Paula Page jumps in. So North Carolina, Maine
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: in the number three slot. I'm still keeping Michigan. It
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: is the only Democratic health seat that I think continues
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: to be more problematic for Democrats as this election cycle
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: goes on, not less. And it's all because the primary
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: is shaping up to be very ideologically divisive, potentially making
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: the Israel issue, which I think is just going to
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: be a massive challenge to Democrats, right, I mean, look
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: at the commentary in and around Joshapiro. The fact is,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: if every Jewish Democrat is going to be asked, you know,
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: you know, about whether they fought in the Israeli army
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: or with some sort of secret idea, I mean that
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: that that is, that is the definition of anti Semitism.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: It's certainly the definition of prejudice. You know, it's it's
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: so it is. I certainly take offense to it as
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: a Jewish American. So and I know I'm not alone
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: on that. This Michigan primary, I think is going to
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: get really messy on this issue where it ends up
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: right and all that. And it's a three way primary,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: so it is. And again the Republican nominee, yes, he's
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: got certainly his share of things that he's got to
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: deal with, but he's not super Magan. He's not. He's
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: going to be hard to paint as Trump Maggott. Now,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: he's certainly tried to get in keeping Trump's good graces
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: so that he that he can keep this nomination. But
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: I continue to believe Michigan is that primary is a
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: is a potential nightmare for them that whoever comes out
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: of it. And remember they sort of have a very
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: sort of conventional, sort of establishment candidate and Haley Stevens
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: sort of an out cider, but I would say sort
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: of a bit more mainstream liberal in Molly McMorrow. And
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: then you have Abdul say Ed, who is I think
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: much more progressive, has the endorsement of Sanders and EOC
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: in that wing of the party. So it is it
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: is likely that whoever comes out of that primary is
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: in trouble. And then of course the governor's race is
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: also a three way nightmare for Democrats too. So I
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: put I keep Michigan is the lone Democratic health seat
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: that I think is in this I still keep in
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: this top five. Then my next two a seat that
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: I've totally dropped by the way, which means is I
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: think Georgia. And you know, there are other handicappers that
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: like to use the lean and the likely and all
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: this stuff. I think we are we are, We've george
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: is no longer a toss up center race. I think
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: Georgia is now a you know, across the board, a
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: race where John Asoft's the favorite. We'll see if there's
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: a Republican nominee that can that can somehow, somehow pull
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: this off. But I think it's a weak field in
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: a tough political environment for Republicans in general, in a
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: swing state where the incumbent has a massive financial head start.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: So George is not on my top five at all anymore,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: completely out of race's most likely to flip parties. So
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: number four on this list now I put Ohio. Now,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: I know we have the news on Alaska and I'm
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: putting Alaska at five. So I have Ohio at four,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: most likely to flip in Alaska at five. Right now,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I still think Republicans are favored to win both races,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: even in this current political environment. If you know, I
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: do think everything is happening the exact way you would
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: want it to happen if you're Shared Brown and trying
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: to win back your Senate seat. Right, it's a midterm environment.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: It's a Republican in the White House, it is an
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: unpopular Republican. The economy is not great, right, Everything in
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: the Shared Brown wheelhouse is there. You're running against an
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: appointed senator who you get to kind of run against
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: as an incumbent, though he's not the incumbent now. I
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: think some of that, you know, I think that shared
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Brown the one thing he doesn't get to benefit from
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: is being an out total outsider, right because he was
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: just there so but in general, everything else is sort
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: of going his way. He's raising a ton of money,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: not quite Roy Cooper numbers, but pretty close, and he
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: obviously is he never really stopped running, right since he
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: just lost in twenty four and that matters, right, It's like,
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: you know, it's like you don't want to take a break,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: you get rusty, like John Easan. Nunu's a bit rusty
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: on the campaign trail, still a little bit, you know,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: you need more batting practice this case, right, Jared Brown's
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: just been running almost NonStop since twenty twelve, and that
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: right that that can matter in a positive for him.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: And then debuting in the fifth slot, I think the
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: first time that I've got Alaska in the top five.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: This is to me the recruit of the cycle so far.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Mary Paltello the former member of Congress. She won thanks
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: to rank choice voting that at large House seat back
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: when Sarah Palin was running for that seat. She had
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: the support of Lisa Murkowski at the time. I don't
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: think she's going to have the support of Lisa Murkowski
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: in this race. And like I said that, the Republican
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: she's challenging Dan Sullivan, he's no mega guy. He just
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: looks conservative when standing next to Lisa Murkowski. But you know,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: if Paltello can can sort of hug that center lane
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: and Alaska, it's it's being an Alaskan first, not a Democrat,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: not a Republican, but an Alaskan first. There's a there's
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: a lane there she has, she has an opportunity to
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: do it. She's gonna raise a ton of money, and
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: an Alaska you don't need a ton of money, and
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: she's gonna have plenty of it. But so's Dan Sullivan.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: But this is a real race now, and and it
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: is it is It is literally to me, you know,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: before getting her, I did not think Democrats had put
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: enough seats in play to legitimately say they had a
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: shot at winning the Senate. Getting her in this race,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: now the numbers are there, all right. They have to
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: do a clean sweep. That can't you know, can't necessarily
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: lose Michigan in this scenario. But they've at least got
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: padding right. If they somehow swept the five competitive Republican
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: health seats and then lost Michigan, they could still net four.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: That seems like an odd scenario if it would happen,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: But the Michigan race is complicated enough where that's not
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: a crazy outcome on that front. So there it is
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: my top five right now. Five the five Senate seats
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: most likely to flip in order. Number one, North Carolina
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: it's a Republican held seat. Democrat is the front runner.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: Number two is main a Republican held seat. I question
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: whether Susan Collins is definitely running for re election. Number
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: three is Michigan a Democratic health seat open seat. Gary
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Stevens's Gary seem Gary Peters if Miami on the brain.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: Gary Stevens was an old offensive coordinator for the University
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: of Miami back in twenty twenty four. Who back in
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: nineteen eighty five and eighty six, And there's always been
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: this great rumor talk about it, aside that Gary Stevens
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: once punched a Sports Illustrated reporter in the face, which
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: is why s I really did the cover that said
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Miami had to drop football. That's at least always been
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: the Miami version of events. But I digress. Gary Peters,
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: so Michigan sitting in the number three slot, the Loan
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Democratic health seat, that's in my top five. Then Ohio
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: shared Brown John Houstad is the Republican incumbent there, he's
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: the appointed senator, and number five on the list the
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Dan Sullivan seat with Democratic challenger Mary Piltello. So there
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: you have it. The political environment continues to get better
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: for Democrats, or at least it's one of those where
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Democratic brands improved. It's just that
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Trump has made things that much worse for Republicans across
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: the board. So there's your top for them on Senate
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: for the month of January.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: I'll do my gubernatorial races next week. All right, let's
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: do some questions.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Ask Chuck. Get a little ask Chuck. Remember ask Chuck
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: at lechucktodcast dot com. Best way to communicate with my
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: team and myself. We'd love to hear from you, whether
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: it's on your ideas, on your ideas on reimagining our
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: public education system for primary and secondary, as well as
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: just any questions you might have. So with that, I'm
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: going to jump in here. First question comes from Connor,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: who says he's from Oklahoma City and Morocco. He may
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: be in Morocco at the point from Oklahoma City. Let
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: me read his question. He says, here, long overdue. Thank
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: you for answering my last question and hoping this finds
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: you in a great mood after the Canes incredible season. Well,
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: great mood, No, but I'm not in as bad of
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: a mood as I thought i'd be. If not, it
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: was a great year for the you and they've got
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: a great future ahead. I recently got into a debate
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: about what would be more dangerous the current Trump presidency
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: or a potential JD. Vance presidency. I've had that debate myself.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Connor most argued Trump's on predictability and cult like following
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: make him uniquely dangerous. But I made the case that
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: Vance's extremism, combined with coherence and focus, could be even
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: more threatening. Curious to hear your take on this, especially Advance,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: or to sume off this mid term under chaotic circumstances,
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: go Kaines. So three months ago, I would have said, Look,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: my concern about JD. Vance is his relationship with Peter
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Teal and I say this because Peter tele has a
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: worldview that is not small D democratic, right, He's part
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: of this movement in Silicon Valley that you know, I
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: take believes that you know, there's certain people are you know,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: you know that essentially wants a monarchy some form of it,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: you know, you and I would call it authoritarianism. But
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: there is like this weird sort of and uh a,
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: really that we know best type of mindset, however you
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: want to look at it. And part of look this
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: is there's a lot of this in Silicon Valley that
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: you know, we we you know where we know best,
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: you know where the future we have all the answers,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: We're inventing all the answers. We're going to cure all
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: these problems just with technological advances. So I just think
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: that relationship and the fact that Vance never really has
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: done anything for a living other than been supported by
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: him in one way or the other by Peter Teel.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: So I do think that, you know, and I think
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: we've always been as a country skeptical of any politician
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: who sort of who sort of owes one person for everything, right,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: and in that sense, he would, so I understand the
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: case you're making I think right now, though, what's happening
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: with Donald Trump is this is it's incredibly destabilizing because
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: one thing JD. Vance isn't is incoherent, and there is
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: there is a pragmatism to him, There is a reality.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: I think he lives in reality. He doesn't seem to
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: be as consumed with his with a with a with
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: a narcissism that Trump is that I think has made
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: things worse, right, his obsession with a peace prize and
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: all this stuff, and how it's like led to just
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: some just some deteriorating relationships that matter a lot more
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: for the United States. But I understand the I understand
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: the that this isn't a clean eighty twenty answer on
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: that front. And I do think in a weird way,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: I get your point there that Vance's would be a
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: lot smarter about building or rebuilding or you know, Donald
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Trump wants to knock things over. JD. Vance wants to
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: rebuild it in a different image, right, and so, but
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: I also believe he would articulate what he's doing, he
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: would try to make his case. I guess maybe I'm
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: being naive that I think that he I do think JD.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Vance as president would want to at least try to
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: make the case to the public with what he was
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: doing and look for popular support for what he was doing.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: It's not something Donald Trump wants to do. Might have
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: given you an unsatisfactory answer there, but I get the debate.
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: Let's just say I've had it myself with a few people.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Next question comes from Deb m Greensboro, Georgia. Hey, I've
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: followed you since your early meet the Press days. Didn't
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: think anyone could fill Tim russell shoes, but you proved
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: me wrong. Well, I still don't think anybody can fill
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Tim's shoes, but I appreciate the sentiment. I have probably
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: a naive question. If most Americans are center left or
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: center rived, why can't we elect more centrist presidents. It's
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: the primary system to blame. Also, I'm a sixty seven
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: year old woman and never misses the podcast, even the
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: college football bets. Do you know the demographics of your audience, Greensboro, Georgia.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: We know a little bit, but we actually know less
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: than we ever have before. Sometimes because part of it
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: is you get some it's easier to see the demo.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: YouTube gives you demographics that are easier to sort of
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: figure out a little harder on the audio only side
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: of things, but trust me, it's we're constantly doing. I
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: think on gender we're pretty evenly split. I think it's
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: a you know, I think if you look at it
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: through the prism of pro Trump anti Trump, it's probably
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: not fifty to fifty on that. But I think I
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: think I have a big chunk of centrists center right,
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: center left, because I could just tell from the anecdotes
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: that I have. I don't think I have a lot
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: of super progressives in super maga. So on that front,
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: that's the sense I get. But your basic question, you know,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: what's interesting is that our system are you know, I
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: could argue that, going back to Eisenhower, that we always
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: ended up with as centrist of a president as the
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: time would allow, right, as that era will allow. Right.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Eisenhower super centrist. You know. Kennedy compared to Nixon was
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: closer to the center, Johnson compared to Goldwater closer to
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: the center. Nixon, Humphrey. Nixon was certainly campaigning closer to
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: the center than Humphrey was, or at least there Nixon
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: McGovern Nixon sort of had the center. Lane Ford Carter
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: I think that was a case where uh, you know,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: we would say, now you would have said Ford was
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: the center, was closer to the center, but the public
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: was ready to punish the Republicans for Nixon, Carter Reagan.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: I think actually when you throw in form policy that
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: that Reagan looked like was closer to the center. So
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: my point is is that I always have felt as
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: if our elections kind of got us to where because
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: I think the center moves a little bit, you know,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: I think we you know, sometimes we think it's all
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: you know, where, you know, everything the Overton window shifts right,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: and so in that sense, what is considered the sort
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: of the center of where America is in a given moment,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: And I think we've always found that. I might argue
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: that even the election of Donald Trump in sixteen was
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: sort of I think that's what some some Trump voters
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: in the middle would argue of what they're doing. And
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: I think certainly the election of Biden was seen as
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: he was closer to the center. And I think in
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: an own weird way, we the voters that didn't like
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: either Harris or Trump, saw Trump, at least on economics,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: as closer to the center. So I think that's where
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: are where the where the swing voters try to pull
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: themselves to. But the primary system is definitely a blame
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: here of why we have and it's it's the it's
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: the you know, I think I don't think we should
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: have partisan primaries. It is it is I think we
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: should all voters should be you know, having a say,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: I don't think we certainly shouldn't have taxpayer funded partisan primaries.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: I think there's a violation of the equal protection clause.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: The idea that if you live in a state that
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: is party registration and this state pays for the primary,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: and that yet you cannot participate in that primary because
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: you're not a member of this private organization called the
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: Democrats or the Republicans. How the hell is that constitutional? Right? So,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: if you're a political party and you want to run
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: a primary for your members only, you pay for it,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: But the taxpayer's paying for it, all taxpayer. And that's
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: where I think the constitutional amendment comes in, where any
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: state funded election has to be opened to all voters. Period.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: It works for mayors races, why can't it work for
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: senate races and governor's races and presidential primaries. But I
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: think partisan primaries are the issue hard stop. Next question
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: comes from Adam Overland Park, Kansas. Used to be this
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: one of the swingiest areas in the country. I think
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: it's less swingy these days. I think it's an old
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: purple district that is pretty anti Trump, even if it's
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: still pretty purple. Check. I really enjoyed listening to the
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: podcast on a regular basis, and especially enjoy your CFP commentary.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: All right, sorry about your canes. That's okay. Question. We
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: know that military officers are forbidden from following illegal orders.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: Would in order to strike, invade, or otherwise take military
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: action against a treaty ally such as Denmark, be considered
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: an illegal order. The treaty, after all, was signed and
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: ratified by the US Congress, just like any other law.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: Thank you so, Adam. Here's the best look. A treaty
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: ratified by the US Senate is binding US law, but
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: it is not absolute. So under the Constitution, treaties are
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: quote supreme law of the land. But a later statute
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: passed by US Congress can override a treaty, and a
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: constitutionally valid use of force can put the US in
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: breach of a treaty without making the act itself illegal
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: under US law. So, in other words, the US can
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: violate a treaty lawfully under domestic law even if it
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: violates international law. And it's important. Under the Uniform Code
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: of Military Justice, service members must obey lawful orders. They
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: must disobey manifestly unlawful orders. But in military order to
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: attack another country, even a treaty ally is not manifestly
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: unlawful on its face, so the treaty is contraining the
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: state not necessarily individual soldier, and soldiers are not expected
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: or required to adjudicate treaty legality. So unless the order
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: itself is a war crime, a crime against humanity, targets civilians,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: or is in clear violation of the law of armed conflict,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: then the order is presumed lawful. So and so the
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: question then becomes your follow up question should be, then
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: who bears the legal resis bonsibility if a treaty is violated. Well,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: in this case, the responsibility alies with the President and
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: Congress if Congress authorized or funded the action to violate
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: the treaty. So under and then under international law, the
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: US could breach international obligations, face some diplomatic consequences, and
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: face international adjudication. Theoretically, of course, we don't really abide
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: by theational the ICC, but the liability itself does not
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: transfer to individual soldiers. So, in short, if Trump orders
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: the invasion of Greenland, and yes, it's in violation of
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: a treaty, but in theory wouldn't necessarily on its face
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: be seen as an illegal order. Now, bombing a civilian
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: boat speeding off the coast of Venezuela is a different story,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: because that is a violation of of of the law
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: of arm conflict. So that is the distinction distinction there.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: I was about to say, fun question. That wasn't a
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: fun question, Adam, but an important question, and I'm glad
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: you made me research it, so thank you. Last question
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: comes from Max w Alexander Virgini says, hey, Chuck, you
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: nailed it. Warning about prediction markets. Just as someone made
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: four hundred thousand dollars on poly market betting Maduro would
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: be ousted before the US took action in Venezuela if
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: that person had insider knowledge of Operation Absolute Resolve, How
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: should the country respond? What would be a fair penalty? Well,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: it's insider trading, it seems to be. It should be
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: prosecuted the same way we prosecute insider trading with the SEC.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's it's a criminal you know,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: there's a there's criminal penalties to this. I just don't
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: think we've figured out how to adjudicate these prediction markets yet.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: And then if you I'm not sure polymarket is still
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: even considered something that can be regulated in the United States.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: Pobly market has yet. I thought it wasn't yet legal
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: in the US though Klshi is. But this it is.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: You know, once again, technology is moving faster than Congress
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: can create regulation, and this is one of those areas.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: We've got to do something here. But think about all
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: of the challenges we have, this is one of those
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: that as concerning as this is, this is like seventy
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: fifth on the list of things that Congress ought to
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: be focused on right now. And if you're they're focused
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: on this and not on what the hell's happening in Greenland,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: I'm like, what the hell are you focused on? No offense,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's an important question, but I think there
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: are other priorities that they've got to get at. First.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Let me give you my final college football report. So look,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: I am I'm not as upset that as I thought
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: I would be about the Hurricanes losing, because at the
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: end of the day, they had every chance to win
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: that game. I would argue Indiana made one less mistake
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: and they made one more play. Miami made one more
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: mistake and didn't make one more play. Right there were
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: the block punt and the missfield goal are ten points
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: right there. Right there's there's ten points. You could easily
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: say Miami should have won that game twenty three, twenty
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: four to twenty one, or twenty four to twenty, which
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: was my if I think that was the prediction I
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: made that if Miami won had been twenty four to
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: twenty had they not had the block punt, Now, who knows,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: maybe they get maybe maybe. The other thing is Miami
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: had two shots at stopping Indiana on fourth downs inside
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: that red zone, and you know, look the Mendoz Here's
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: what I'll say, I think Carson Beck played a really
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: good game. Fernando Mendoza told us what showed us why
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: he was the Heisman Trophy winner, that gutsy fourth down call,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: which we've now since learned. According to the Miami defensive coordinator,
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: they knew that was coming and it wasn't, and they
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: were trying to communicate it to everybody, and the linebacker
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: got it to half the team, not the whole defense.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: There just you know that happens. You think you've read
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: the play right, but you didn't communicate it in time.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: You know, when you see these guys holding up signs
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: doing all this, that's what they're They're like, Hey, we
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: think it's this. You know, prepare for this, prepare for
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: prepare for that. And the other sort of disconcerting thing
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: is that on the Carson Beck interception, I think the
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: Indiana DC admitted that we had caught them in a
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: bad spot, and Frankly had just had marry and turned
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: around and seen that the ball was coming, he likely
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: would have made a play on the ball that might
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: have that might have might have pulled them off there.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: But there was another part I I I was concerned
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: that Beck played that last forty five seconds with a concussion.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: He took a hit, the late hit. And this was
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: the other thing, right Indiana, Indiana gave Miami a chance.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: I didn't know, it didn't look like it. Miami was
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: going to get the ball back, and then Indiana did
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: something that they hadn't done all year. They screwed, They
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: screwed up. They gave Miami a chance. First, the false
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: start moves them from a second and one to a
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: second and six or I think it was a third
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: and one to a third and six, which of course
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: allowed Miami to stop them. There call another time out,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: and then when Signetti successfully goes for it on fourth
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: down twice to avoid giving Miami the ball, he decides
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: to kick a field goal and give the ball back
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: to Miami. I can't believe he did that. I can't
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: believe he didn't go for it again to try to
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: end the game. Yes, you'd have been giving Miami the
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: ball back maybe at the ten they'd have had to
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: drive sixty yards for a game tying field goal, But
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: you were actually not going to put the game at risk.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: So I actually think this is a case where, you know,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: Mario christ boul was getting all sorts of grief about
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: how he clocked managed Signetti screwed up there in the
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter too many used up as timeouts and then
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: gave Miami the ball back. I thought we were going
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: to make them pay for that, and we almost did. So.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: Look I'm not this is I've been to five national
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: title games involving Miami. I've been to six total national
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: title games. I happened to be at the Notre Dame
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: Colorado one back in nineteen ninety, which was the ninety
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: one Orange Bowl, when Colorado got a split national title
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: with Notre Dame or not Notre Dame Georgia Tech excuse me,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: and so like. I was just angry and devastated after
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: the Ohio state national title. Sorry, I don't accept that one.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not over that one. Some scars never heal right,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: but this one, Miami had a chance. I just played
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit better, But I was I was sort
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: of encouraged by the fact that the game played out
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: exactly as I thought I would. I knew we were
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: the best team Indiana faced all year, and I think
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: we proved it, and we made Indiana look worse than
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: any other team made him look, except for maybe in
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: the bad weather that Iowa pulled off there. I really,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: I will tell you this. I was not all bought
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: into Fernando Mendoza. I am. Now, that is one tough
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: home bray. I'd like to say soob, but he would
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: never use those that language. Although I guess he cursed
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: for the first time on TV the other night. I'm
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: all in a Mendoza man, I'm written for him. And
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: if you're a Raider fan, you should you put it
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: this way. Imagine if Tibo had had the skills to
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: be a great NFL quarterback. And I say this, Tibo
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: had some incredible skills, but he was not a prototypical
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: pro style quarterback. Couldn't really find it system that worked,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: you know, he was he was he really you know,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: the way New Orleans used to use Taysom Hill, you know,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: that ought to have been what Tebow's you know, but
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: he never could accept the idea of being sort of
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: tight in slash, sort of you know, multi faceted player.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: Mendoza feels like what Tebow would have been if he'd
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: had the ability to be also a drop back past. Look,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: he made some incredible throws on third downs. Miami couldn't
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: get off the field a couple of times simply because
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: a front end of Mendoza. So I'm all in, I'm impressed,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: I get it, I'm you know, and now I'm paranoid
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: that his little brother is going to Georgia Tech. Georgia
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: Tech is already a thorn in Miami's side. I can
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: just picture Mendoza, you know, give it us, the younger
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: Mendoza who's not as big as his brother but plays
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: a slightly different style of course, or back just given
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: us fits because that's what Georgia Tech does, right. Every
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: college football team, no how great you are, always has
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: that team that gives you a tough game, no matter
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: how good or bad they are. Georgia Tech is one
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: of those teams when it comes from Miami. But I'm
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: pretty convinced that this will fuel Miami, that this will
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: be similar to what you know, after Miami lost to
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: Penn State in eighty six, the next year's team went undefeated,
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: even though they had had to replace their quarterback with
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: Vinnie Testaverdi and eighty six. We got Steve Walsh in
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: eighty seven, and people were skeptical of Walsh. Well there
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: was you know, that team was on a mission. Mario
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: Cristobal was a part of that recruiting class. I think
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: that came in right after the eighty seven team. So
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: there's something about this that feels like this is the
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: beginning of something. This wasn't just a This wasn't a
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: fleeting moment. It's not a fleeting moment for Nianna either.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: A few observations about I'm very concerned that we are
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: just pricing out people from experiences that used to not
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: cost an arm and a leg to have, whether it's
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: incredible football games like the one I got to witness,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: or even something as simple as going to Disney World.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: The amount of money now, if you want to have, oh,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: if you want to have good seats, you got to
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: have like tech ro money. If you want to have
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: no you know, if you want to have shorter lines
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: at Disney, You've got to pay for more of a
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: velvet rope. You know. It gets into the same thing
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: I sort of mentioned the other day that even even
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: Blackjack has income inequality, where if you want to play
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: for lesser stakes you get worse odds, if you want
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: to play for higher stakes, you get better odds. It is,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: it is everything is about, you know, creating more velvet
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: ropes to sell more insider access. And the irony was
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: the most expensive seats at hard Rock Stadium. There's these
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: comfy chairs on the fifty yard line. There are these
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: wide seats, literally soft kind of recliner seats. They were
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: going for twenty to forty thousand dollars a piece. That
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: was the only seats that looked empty. I was sitting
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: on the opposite side about the ten yard line in
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: a Miami section, in a section, and I will confess
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: of Miami season ticket holders that were on the upper
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: end of being Miami season ticket holders, Okay, but we
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: were not. Yeah, we were priced out of any of those.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: And that's I'm not complaining, all right. I enjoyed it.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: I was able to get there. I didn't have to
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: pay four thousand dollars on the secondary market for tickets
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. But you know, how, the entire
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: how we're just doing these things, we're we're sort of
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: embedding inequality all over the place. And it's I'm not
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: trying to sound like some socialists here, but it's like,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: I think we need we've gotten out of hand. I
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: think we can charge up the you know what for
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: these suites, but the stands themselves can't. You you know,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: I understand that they're trying to get every dollar they
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: can off of how much money has been paid for
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: the rights to this playoff and all this stuff, But
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know five hundred dollars for parking seemed absurd.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: Some of us may have paid for it because of Frankly,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: it was that or two hundred and fifty dollars one
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: way Uber, you know, or one hundred dollars Cabra. Right.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: There was no cheap way to go. There was some
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: shuttles if you wanted to sign up for the hard
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: rock casino and things like that. But I just in general,
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: I do think we need to, you know, the stewards
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: of these of these big things, whether you whether you're
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: Bob Eiger and your run Disney World. You know, can
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: a middle class family go and enjoy themselves and not
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: feel like or not get reminded? Yeah you can go,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: but we're going to show off all the places you
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: can't afford to be. It kind of felt that way
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: at this football game. And again, I know this is
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: the national time. We've already done this to the super Bowl,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: where the average NFL fan can't get there. That's the
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: other thing. They don't even make tickets available. Everything is
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: for these corporate and political guys. Trust me, I saw
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: my shriff of politicians, saw the Santises, saw Marco Rubios,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: Rick Scott saw. I did not see the president in person.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: But s all these other folks, we're all milling about,
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: right except for there security details everywhere and stuff. But
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: it was that's just the one. We've got to sort
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: of have some I just you know, it's almost like
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: you need It's like we need an HR for sort
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: of a reality check, you know, because guess what, none
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: of this has value. If working people aren't interested in
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: the product anymore, and if you make it so hard
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: for working people to to do this once a year
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: whatever it is, eventually they're going to lose interest and
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: then the entire product gets devalued. So as we keep
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: escalating to find more ways to make money off the
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: super rich, be careful suddenly pricing out and getting rid
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: of an entire class of people who arguably are the
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: backbone of the popularity of a place like Disney World
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: or a sport like college football. Good news is this
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: is my last college football report until spring practice. No no, no,
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: I'm just kidding until August unless the sport itself goes
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: through yet another overhaul and there's some stuff there. I
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: am going to transition to baseball. I got a lot
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: of feelings about the new Baseball Hall of famers. I'm
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: going to save that for my next sports report on
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: the next podcast with that I'll see in twenty four hours.