Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The Republican FREAK OUT Index

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The Republican FREAK OUT Index · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  So how much should Republicans in your state be freaking out
• 0:04
  over the midterms?
• 0:04
  Well,
• 0:05
  we've got the answers to you thanks to science coming up in just a moment.
• 0:08
  We also have Scott Ilicious himself,
• 0:10
  David Ben Soussan,
• 0:11
  a trader that's made millions of dollars in prediction markets with his insight
• 0:14
  into November's elections.
• 0:16
  Big show today.
• 0:17
  So much coming up on Predictable with Stu.
• 0:34
  All right,
• 0:34
  here we go.
• 0:35
  Predictable 101 for you.
• 0:37
  If you happen to be a new trader,
• 0:38
  if you happen to be someone who's interested in prediction
• 0:40
  markets and have no idea how to use them,
• 0:42
  don't worry about it.
• 0:42
  We got you covered.
• 0:43
  Predictable101.com.
• 0:44
  We'll walk you through with short videos
• 0:46
  to explain all those aspects for you.
• 0:48
  It's also on YouTube at uh.
• 0:49
  YouTube.com/atpredictable
• 0:51
  show.
• 0:51
  We are 26 days away from the midterm elections.
• 0:54
  We are in opportunity time
• 0:56
  right now.
• 0:57
  Uh,
• 0:57
  early voting is already happening
• 0:59
  in 14 states.
• 1:00
  We're starting to get early voting data,
• 1:01
  which is
• 1:02
  another layer of this that we'll start to add into our analysis
• 1:05
  as we go.
• 1:06
  There's a lot to go there.
• 1:07
  Just go to predictableShow.com.
• 1:08
  There's tons of info there.
• 1:09
  I want you to,
• 1:10
  to get there and,
• 1:10
  uh,
• 1:11
  you know,
• 1:11
  there's all sorts of features you'll like it,
• 1:13
  OK.
• 1:15
  One of the things I really like about doing this show.
• 1:17
  Maybe my favorite thing about doing this show
• 1:19
  is that they pay me to come in here and talk to you
• 1:23
  about things that I was going to do anyway.
• 1:25
  Was I,
• 1:26
  I was gonna be on prediction markets anyway.
• 1:28
  I was gonna be trading these elections anyway,
• 1:29
  and then they make me,
• 1:30
  they actually give me money to come in here and talk to you about it,
• 1:32
  which I like.
• 1:33
  It's fun.
• 1:34
  Money,
• 1:34
  money makes the prediction market world a lot easier.
• 1:37
  And one of the things that I,
• 1:39
  I,
• 1:39
  I do is I,
• 1:40
  I come up with these little dumb research projects that I use for my own trading.
• 1:44
  I'm trying to figure these things out and analyze these markets as we go.
• 1:48
  And
• 1:48
  I will spend time on spreadsheets and formulas and indexes and algorithms,
• 1:54
  I don't know,
• 1:54
  all that stuff,
• 1:55
  to try to understand things a little bit better because
• 1:58
  sometimes I will have a vibe on something,
• 2:00
  and then the data shows me that it's a little bit different.
• 2:02
  Maybe I should be worried about something I'm not worried about,
• 2:04
  or maybe I shouldn't be worried about something that I am.
• 2:08
  So
• 2:09
  I started doing this it's just kind of like a project behind the scenes,
• 2:12
  and I was like,
• 2:12
  well,
• 2:13
  there's a lot of different factors that
• 2:14
  are moving voters right now against Republicans.
• 2:17
  This is the sort of idea of the blue wave.
• 2:20
  What does that mean?
• 2:20
  What is it built out of?
• 2:22
  And I started thinking about,
• 2:23
  well,
• 2:23
  instead of just thinking about those things generally,
• 2:26
  I should put numbers on it.
• 2:27
  I should kind of go through and really understand
• 2:30
  which states are getting hit,
• 2:32
  uh,
• 2:32
  with these factors
• 2:34
  that,
• 2:34
  uh,
• 2:35
  are moving against Republicans,
• 2:36
  which ones are most vulnerable.
• 2:38
  Where should Republicans be freaking out?
• 2:40
  And because of that conversation I had in my head
• 2:43
  while I was probably supposed to be listening to,
• 2:46
  you know,
• 2:47
  something important,
• 2:48
  um,
• 2:49
  I was,
• 2:50
  because of that,
• 2:50
  I came up with the Republican Freak Out Index.
• 2:53
  Yes,
• 2:54
  this is a list of all 50 states,
• 2:56
  and I've ranked them
• 2:57
  as to where Republicans should be freaking out the most.
• 3:01
  And I wanna go through quickly
• 3:02
  what aspects I included in this index
• 3:05
  that led me to this analysis.
• 3:08
  There's a bunch of different things that have been in the news that have been,
• 3:10
  uh,
• 3:10
  factors that I've seen in voting data,
• 3:12
  in,
• 3:13
  um,
• 3:13
  in,
• 3:13
  uh,
• 3:14
  polling data
• 3:15
  that are moving voters who would normally vote
• 3:17
  for Republicans or at least be independently open-minded,
• 3:20
  and that pushing them to the left or maybe making
• 3:22
  them not as enthusiastic about their vote this time.
• 3:25
  So we had the Republican freak out index.
• 3:27
  Let me give you a quick explainer as to how
• 3:29
  I thought of this.
• 3:30
  Um,
• 3:31
  I took it and if you're looking for these numbers,
• 3:33
  like how did I come up with 65% economy and 35% demographics?
• 3:37
  Because I decide it's mine.
• 3:38
  It's my index,
• 3:39
  so I get to put the numbers however I want,
• 3:41
  but I really tried hard to figure out
• 3:43
  how these things would be weighted.
• 3:44
  So I've weighted the economic.
• 3:46
  Factors,
• 3:46
  about 65% of this index.
• 3:48
  The demographics,
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  about 35%.
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  And there's 6 main things.
• 3:52
  There's a bunch of different factors,
• 3:54
  uh,
• 3:54
  that go into these,
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  but these are the six things that,
• 3:57
  as a summary
• 3:58
  of how this has been guided.
• 4:00
  Number one,
• 4:02
  Gas price increase.
• 4:03
  What,
• 4:03
  what's the biggest increase in a particular state?
• 4:05
  Are you dealing with a huge increase?
• 4:07
  Cause some states are dealing with that,
• 4:08
  some are dealing with a mild increase.
• 4:10
  So,
• 4:10
  if,
• 4:11
  if the increase is huge,
• 4:12
  worse for Republicans,
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  uh,
• 4:14
  and they should freak out more.
• 4:15
  Diesel dependence,
• 4:17
  um,
• 4:17
  the diesel numbers have gone to all-time highs,
• 4:20
  record highs.
• 4:21
  So,
• 4:22
  you know,
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  but some states don't use diesel as much as others.
• 4:25
  Um,
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  so diesel,
• 4:26
  heating oil,
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  those types of things,
• 4:27
  who,
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  where is,
• 4:28
  uh,
• 4:28
  the most dependence in each state?
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  The more dependence,
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  the more Republicans should freak out.
• 4:33
  Tariffs,
• 4:34
  uh,
• 4:34
  cost per household.
• 4:35
  Looked at multiple studies on that.
• 4:37
  Uh,
• 4:37
  the estimated tariff cost since,
• 4:39
  uh,
• 4:39
  January 2025 when Trump came in for his second term.
• 4:43
  Uh,
• 4:43
  who's,
• 4:43
  what states have been hit the hardest?
• 4:44
  There's a wide gap between certain states.
• 4:46
  So if you're,
• 4:47
  if you're not liking the tariffs,
• 4:49
  where are,
• 4:50
  uh,
• 4:50
  the tariffs hitting people hardest?
• 4:51
  If they hit our hardest,
• 4:52
  it's worse
• 4:52
  for Republicans.
• 4:53
  They should freak out more.
• 4:54
  Young voter share,
• 4:56
  younger voters who came towards Trump in 2024
• 4:59
  seem to,
• 5:00
  in poll after poll after poll to be going the opposite way.
• 5:03
  And,
• 5:03
  uh,
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  so if there's a a big share of younger voters,
• 5:08
  that's gonna penalize Republicans,
• 5:09
  they should freak out more about that.
• 5:11
  Kind of a sister issue to this is the senior voter share,
• 5:14
  older voters not exiting,
• 5:15
  going away
• 5:16
  from Republicans quite as quickly,
• 5:18
  so the senior.
• 5:19
  Your voter share,
• 5:19
  you want that to be bigger.
• 5:20
  Those two things seem like they're,
• 5:22
  you know,
• 5:22
  obvious,
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  but,
• 5:23
  and,
• 5:23
  and very related,
• 5:24
  but that's not actually true.
• 5:25
  Some of them,
• 5:26
  some states have really big younger voter blocks and not as many seniors
• 5:30
  or big senior blocks and not as many young people.
• 5:33
  And then finally,
• 5:33
  Hispanic voter share
• 5:35
  because of some of the stuff that's happened with immigration,
• 5:38
  uh,
• 5:38
  enforcement.
• 5:39
  Hispanic voters have kind of fleed
• 5:41
  from the Republican Party
• 5:43
  that they that they had kind of come toward them in 2024.
• 5:46
  So those are the six elements that we have that go into this,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:50
  index.
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  And so I'm gonna go through some of the big states that we're gonna put up all 50 states
• 5:54
  on the website at predictableshw.com.
• 5:57
  I don't think they're up there yet,
• 5:58
  but they'll be soon.
• 5:59
  They may be up there.
• 6:00
  Go check predictableShow.com.
• 6:01
  If you want to see the entire list,
• 6:02
  but let me go through some of the key races,
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  and this really helps me
• 6:06
  understand why we're looking at some of the polling,
• 6:08
  why some of these races are moving,
• 6:10
  uh,
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  the way that they are.
• 6:11
  I wanna start,
• 6:12
  by the way,
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  the,
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  the entire index,
• 6:14
  almost every single state run scored between 20 and 70,
• 6:18
  20 being,
• 6:19
  yeah,
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  I wouldn't freak out that much for Republicans,
• 6:21
  70 being
• 6:22
  really freak out.
• 6:23
  OK.
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  There's only one state that fell out of that range,
• 6:25
  which was Hawaii,
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  and oddly,
• 6:27
  that was the,
• 6:28
  the state that,
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  uh,
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  came in 50th.
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  The least freak out state was Hawaii.
• 6:32
  Um,
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  but I want to go through some of the big races here.
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  We'll start toward the bottom and move towards the top.
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  The least freak out state of any big race that I've seen,
• 6:40
  49
• 6:41
  is Oregon.
• 6:42
  Oregon came in at number 49,
• 6:43
  index score of only 21.
• 6:46
  Uh,
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  Oregon is,
• 6:47
  uh,
• 6:48
  if you watch,
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  there was a debate last night,
• 6:49
  and I say that as if everyone was watching it like it was the Super Bowl.
• 6:52
  Uh,
• 6:53
  I was watching it,
• 6:54
  Tina Kotoek versus Christine Drazen.
• 6:56
  Uh,
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  it was an interesting debate.
• 6:57
  I don't think there's any knockout punches in it.
• 6:59
  Um,
• 7:00
  probably I thought Drazen won it,
• 7:01
  uh,
• 7:02
  but I have a position on Kottech.
• 7:03
  This is one of those races though,
• 7:05
  that oddly has not been going with the Democratic flow at all.
• 7:08
  Um,
• 7:08
  and,
• 7:09
  uh,
• 7:09
  you know,
• 7:09
  I,
• 7:10
  I,
• 7:10
  it's had times like,
• 7:11
  how is this happening?
• 7:12
  Well,
• 7:12
  this is kind of how it's happening.
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  They're on the low end of the Republican freak out index
• 7:16
  at number 49 out of 50 states.
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  And you'd see this as a pattern.
• 7:22
  States where Republicans are doing better than you
• 7:25
  might expect in an environment like this,
• 7:28
  where it's maybe leaning Democrat.
• 7:30
  Why is,
• 7:30
  let's say,
• 7:31
  for example,
• 7:31
  number 47,
• 7:33
  Maine.
• 7:34
  Maine is all the way at the bottom of this list.
• 7:37
  All the factors that I discussed earlier affect Maine
• 7:40
  much less than a bunch of other states.
• 7:42
  So,
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  Maine at number 47
• 7:44
  is a state that Republicans should freak out less,
• 7:46
  and maybe Susan Collins does have a chance.
• 7:48
  We,
• 7:48
  we've made money on Susan Collins already.
• 7:50
  We told,
• 7:50
  we were telling you to buy her at 30 and 32 cents.
• 7:53
  She's now at 45%,
• 7:55
  or at least she was at 45 last night,
• 7:56
  last time I checked.
• 7:57
  So,
• 7:58
  uh,
• 7:58
  Maine.
• 7:59
  Very low on the Republican freak out index.
• 8:02
  Another race that has looked good for Republicans,
• 8:04
  kind of surprisingly maybe,
• 8:06
  uh,
• 8:06
  is in New Hampshire,
• 8:07
  where,
• 8:08
  uh,
• 8:08
  that's at number 39 out of 50 on the Republican freak out index,
• 8:12
  that Senate race,
• 8:13
  um,
• 8:14
  which I,
• 8:14
  I do have a position on the Democrat in that race,
• 8:17
  um,
• 8:17
  um,
• 8:17
  but Sununu has kept it pretty close.
• 8:19
  Some of the polling's been close,
• 8:20
  opened up a little bit recently,
• 8:22
  but,
• 8:22
  uh,
• 8:22
  kind of on the,
• 8:23
  uh,
• 8:23
  low end of Republican freak outs,
• 8:25
  so maybe that's why that race has been closer.
• 8:28
  One race that kind of shakes the boat a little bit on this index
• 8:31
  is at number 31.
• 8:33
  So we're still in the bottom half of freak outs.
• 8:35
  That's Alaska.
• 8:36
  Um,
• 8:36
  and Alaska is the number one state in the union when it comes to diesel dependence,
• 8:40
  but many of those other measures I was talking about,
• 8:43
  they do not rank that highly of.
• 8:44
  So they're kind of in the middle of the pack,
• 8:46
  leaning towards the less freak out option.
• 8:48
  Perhaps that means,
• 8:50
  uh,
• 8:50
  a little more opportunity for Sullivan.
• 8:53
  Uh,
• 8:53
  it's possible.
• 8:54
  This is a red state,
• 8:55
  maybe they come back.
• 8:57
  You know,
• 8:57
  I'm still on Peltola on that one,
• 8:58
  but it's a,
• 8:59
  it's an interesting piece of evidence to
• 9:01
  consider as you're looking at these positions.
• 9:02
  The number 27 1,
• 9:04
  again,
• 9:04
  bottom half of freakouts,
• 9:06
  right?
• 9:06
  Less freaking out for Republicans.
• 9:08
  Where are they all the,
• 9:08
  you know,
• 9:09
  oddly doing better in the polls than you might think.
• 9:12
  Number 27 is Minnesota,
• 9:14
  kind of in the middle of the race,
• 9:15
  but like you look at that race in,
• 9:16
  um,
• 9:17
  in,
• 9:17
  uh,
• 9:17
  in the Senate,
• 9:18
  Michelle Tafoya very,
• 9:19
  very close to Peggy Flanagan in that race.
• 9:22
  Uh,
• 9:22
  that is not what you would think
• 9:24
  in a bluish state like Minnesota,
• 9:26
  and maybe a,
• 9:27
  a,
• 9:27
  a shade of purple to Minnesota,
• 9:29
  but still,
• 9:30
  I would say a blue state.
• 9:31
  That is a very,
• 9:32
  very close Senate race and may buck the trend nationally,
• 9:35
  and they are on the less.
• 9:36
  Freak outside
• 9:37
  of,
• 9:37
  of this particular
• 9:39
  measure.
• 9:40
  The Republican freak out index goes on number 25.
• 9:42
  If you wanna talk about,
• 9:44
  uh,
• 9:44
  North Carolina,
• 9:44
  that's fine.
• 9:45
  I mean,
• 9:45
  I don't think this is a race I'm really considering to be that close.
• 9:48
  Um,
• 9:49
  this is a middle of the pack one,
• 9:50
  obviously,
• 9:51
  but a really good Democratic candidate with a lot of name recognition in the state
• 9:55
  probably pushes,
• 9:56
  uh,
• 9:56
  Roy Cooper over,
• 9:57
  uh,
• 9:57
  the finish line there,
• 9:58
  but that's at number 25.
• 10:00
  At number 20,
• 10:02
  more freaking out now.
• 10:03
  Ohio,
• 10:05
  Ohio is an interesting one.
• 10:06
  Again,
• 10:07
  another
• 10:08
  race where the Democrats did pretty well with their candidate,
• 10:11
  Sherrod Brown's known in the state,
• 10:13
  been around for a while,
• 10:14
  lost a relatively close race just a couple of years ago,
• 10:16
  back for more here.
• 10:17
  Uh,
• 10:18
  he is a leading this race right now,
• 10:21
  but not,
• 10:21
  uh,
• 10:21
  dramatically.
• 10:23
  Uh,
• 10:23
  but we are getting to that place where these type of measures,
• 10:26
  uh,
• 10:27
  larger Hispanic,
• 10:28
  uh,
• 10:29
  population,
• 10:29
  maybe not as much,
• 10:30
  but tariffs,
• 10:31
  uh,
• 10:31
  fuel prices,
• 10:32
  diesel prices hitting Ohio harder than other states.
• 10:35
  So the number 20,
• 10:37
  and remember number 1 will be the most freak out,
• 10:39
  uh,
• 10:40
  number 20 on the Republican freak out index is Ohio.
• 10:42
  We've got a bunch here that are close races,
• 10:44
  and they,
• 10:44
  and they kind of explain
• 10:45
  parts of why these races are close.
• 10:47
  Number 19 is Kansas.
• 10:49
  Again,
• 10:49
  Kansas
• 10:50
  is a,
• 10:50
  is a situation where it should be easy for Republicans.
• 10:54
  They haven't lost the Senate race there in 92 years,
• 10:56
  so it's usually been easy,
• 10:58
  but they are on the wrong side of the freak out index here,
• 11:01
  and we are seeing a race where Hamilton,
• 11:02
  the Democrat,
• 11:03
  is actually leading
• 11:04
  in a lot of polls recently
• 11:06
  against Marshall,
• 11:07
  the Republican,
• 11:07
  one to watch there on the freak out index.
• 11:09
  This is one that I think is under the radar for most people.
• 11:12
  I've been talking about it for a while.
• 11:14
  And it is showing up
• 11:16
  in a big way too
• 11:17
  in the PMC,
• 11:18
  the predictable midterm consensus that we built.
• 11:21
  But I'm talking about the state at number 18,
• 11:23
  which is South Carolina.
• 11:25
  And,
• 11:26
  uh,
• 11:26
  you know,
• 11:26
  I don't know.
• 11:27
  I mean,
• 11:27
  I,
• 11:28
  I,
• 11:29
  I would just think Republicans could win
• 11:31
  South Carolina really with their eyes closed,
• 11:33
  but it's a weird race.
• 11:34
  You've got,
• 11:35
  I mean,
• 11:35
  Lindsey Graham would have won this race.
• 11:36
  I would not be,
• 11:37
  I,
• 11:37
  I would not be concerned about this at all.
• 11:39
  And I,
• 11:39
  as you may know,
• 11:40
  I'm not a huge Lindsey Graham fan.
• 11:41
  Uh,
• 11:42
  I was not like a fan of his politics,
• 11:43
  but
• 11:44
  with him gone and his sister in there.
• 11:47
  This is a race,
• 11:48
  especially with her performance,
• 11:49
  where this is a weird opportunity.
• 11:51
  If you wanna be risky and you wanna like,
• 11:53
  like I want a 10X type return.
• 11:56
  On the fringes of a blue wave is the state.
• 11:58
  And I don't think it's,
• 12:00
  I don't think it's crazy.
• 12:01
  I don't think it's,
• 12:02
  uh,
• 12:03
  wild to believe that this could get a lot closer.
• 12:06
  How about that,
• 12:07
  at least in the polls,
• 12:08
  and it's possible the Democrat could win here.
• 12:10
  I don't think it's gonna happen still,
• 12:12
  but I think it's possible,
• 12:13
  and you can get that one really,
• 12:14
  really cheap,
• 12:14
  of course,
• 12:15
  because people that,
• 12:16
  you know,
• 12:16
  aren't looking at that race.
• 12:17
  Number 17 is a race we've talked about a lot,
• 12:19
  Nebraska.
• 12:20
  Again,
• 12:21
  you look at these types of states that are
• 12:22
  ranking high on the Republican freak out index,
• 12:25
  and you see.
• 12:26
  Uh,
• 12:26
  is something that is,
• 12:28
  uh,
• 12:28
  you know,
• 12:29
  uh,
• 12:29
  uh,
• 12:29
  leading you to understand why these races are close.
• 12:32
  Uh,
• 12:32
  Ricketts,
• 12:33
  who,
• 12:33
  you know,
• 12:33
  he has won other races many,
• 12:35
  many times,
• 12:35
  uh,
• 12:36
  you know,
• 12:36
  he's been popular there.
• 12:37
  Uh,
• 12:37
  you know,
• 12:38
  he's not,
• 12:38
  his approval ratings are,
• 12:39
  uh,
• 12:40
  right now,
• 12:41
  but when you look at the,
• 12:41
  the registration in the state,
• 12:43
  there are more Republicans in the state of Nebraska
• 12:46
  than Democrats and Independents combined.
• 12:49
  And yet still,
• 12:51
  this is a very close race between Ricketts and Osborne.
• 12:53
  So another,
• 12:54
  this is part of the explanation for this.
• 12:56
  Number 17 is Nebraska.
• 12:58
  Number 12,
• 12:59
  watched the debate there last night as well.
• 13:02
  I'm really,
• 13:02
  really cool.
• 13:04
  Uh,
• 13:05
  number 12 is Iowa,
• 13:07
  and
• 13:08
  this is one of the races,
• 13:09
  as I've mentioned,
• 13:09
  I've liked this from the beginning.
• 13:11
  We talked about it at length yesterday.
• 13:12
  I won't go too much into depth on,
• 13:14
  on Hinson,
• 13:14
  although I think Hinson did well in the debate.
• 13:16
  I don't think she did exactly what Steve Davis was hoping for,
• 13:18
  where she was,
• 13:18
  uh,
• 13:19
  on the attack.
• 13:20
  Uh,
• 13:20
  she was saying a lot that he didn't show up,
• 13:22
  uh,
• 13:23
  for votes,
• 13:23
  which I,
• 13:24
  I assume that was what Steve was talking about when he mentioned that yesterday.
• 13:26
  Um,
• 13:27
  not,
• 13:27
  not necessarily the most effective attack,
• 13:29
  but I do think she handled herself well
• 13:30
  and is a pretty adept debater.
• 13:32
  She's a pretty good candidate,
• 13:33
  um,
• 13:34
  you know,
• 13:34
  taking policy out of it.
• 13:36
  I try to look at that.
• 13:36
  I think the same is true though with her opponent,
• 13:38
  which is Josh Turk.
• 13:39
  Again,
• 13:39
  I don't like his policies all that much,
• 13:41
  but
• 13:41
  not a terrible candidate,
• 13:42
  so that race remains very,
• 13:44
  very close.
• 13:44
  And the pressures are hitting Iowa
• 13:46
  more than they're hitting other states.
• 13:48
  Republicans probably should freak out.
• 13:50
  Reports are they're gonna dump about $50 million into the state.
• 13:53
  We will see how that goes.
• 13:55
  Let's go up to number 6,
• 13:57
  is on the Republican freak out index,
• 13:59
  which is
• 14:00
  the state of Georgia.
• 14:02
  Now,
• 14:03
  you've looked at this and uh a lot of people are saying,
• 14:05
  oh gosh,
• 14:05
  Jon Ossoff is this,
• 14:06
  you know,
• 14:06
  incredible candidate.
• 14:08
  He's,
• 14:08
  he's the new Kennedy.
• 14:09
  He's gonna be the,
• 14:10
  he's the leader for the 2028 nomination.
• 14:12
  I don't know about any of that.
• 14:14
  But what I will say is,
• 14:15
  he's got a lead.
• 14:16
  The lead is pretty darn consistent,
• 14:18
  and the fundamentals here,
• 14:20
  all those categories we talked about earlier
• 14:22
  really burn Collins.
• 14:25
  Uh,
• 14:25
  you know,
• 14:25
  even if this was an even race in normal times,
• 14:28
  those six different factors are all moving against,
• 14:32
  uh,
• 14:32
  Michael,
• 14:33
  uh,
• 14:33
  Mike Collins,
• 14:34
  uh,
• 14:34
  in a big way.
• 14:35
  And Jon Ossoff,
• 14:36
  you know,
• 14:36
  might be a good candidate anyway.
• 14:37
  I don't know.
• 14:38
  I'm not all that enthralled with him,
• 14:39
  but
• 14:40
  a lot of people are.
• 14:41
  And
• 14:42
  if that is,
• 14:43
  you take that and then add it on to this factor,
• 14:46
  um,
• 14:47
  uh,
• 14:47
  of,
• 14:47
  of a freak out index being at number 6 out of 50 states,
• 14:51
  you see why that's,
• 14:52
  that race seems a little bit
• 14:53
  more out of reach than you'd expected,
• 14:55
  um,
• 14:55
  when you're talking about a state that used to be red kind of all the time
• 14:58
  and is moving more blue every day.
• 14:59
  OK,
• 15:00
  a couple more,
• 15:00
  2 big ones.
• 15:03
  We're up to #2.
• 15:04
  There's a debate there tonight.
• 15:06
  It's a big one.
• 15:07
  We're talking about the state of Michigan.
• 15:10
  Michigan is the #2 freak out state on this.
• 15:13
  And again,
• 15:13
  this has nothing to do with the polls.
• 15:15
  It has nothing to do with what candidates are running.
• 15:17
  This is only
• 15:18
  economic and demographic information.
• 15:20
  We're only looking at that.
• 15:22
  And when you look at all that,
• 15:24
  you,
• 15:24
  you synthesize all that into this formula,
• 15:26
  we come up with the index.
• 15:27
  I mentioned these things go from 20 to 70.
• 15:30
  Michigan's at 67.1%.
• 15:33
  Is the 2nd highest on this entire scale,
• 15:35
  number 2 out of 50,
• 15:37
  where Republicans should freak out.
• 15:40
  I think without El Sayed being in this race,
• 15:43
  we wouldn't be talking about it very much.
• 15:44
  It's,
• 15:44
  it's really because the Democrats in this state,
• 15:47
  unlike many others that they have,
• 15:49
  selected a really bad candidate.
• 15:51
  And so I think there's still an opportunity here for Rodgers,
• 15:54
  but
• 15:55
  close.
• 15:56
  And,
• 15:56
  and,
• 15:56
  and there's a reason for Democrats,
• 15:58
  uh,
• 15:58
  to be excited and Republicans to be freaking out.
• 16:00
  OK,
• 16:01
  the number one,
• 16:01
  and I did not,
• 16:02
  I did not look at this.
• 16:03
  I,
• 16:03
  I ran the numbers,
• 16:04
  I had no idea how this is gonna turn out.
• 16:06
  But wow,
• 16:07
  this is,
• 16:07
  uh,
• 16:07
  this is eye opening.
• 16:08
  The number one state on this index is the state
• 16:11
  I'm sitting in,
• 16:12
  Texas.
• 16:14
  Texas is number one,
• 16:15
  a 69.7,
• 16:17
  the highest score
• 16:19
  on the Republican freak out index.
• 16:21
  Young voters,
• 16:22
  Hispanic voters.
• 16:24
  Um,
• 16:25
  gas price increases,
• 16:27
  diesel dependence,
• 16:28
  um,
• 16:29
  uh,
• 16:31
  not as big an older or senior population to kind of set a base,
• 16:35
  and tariffs hitting the state,
• 16:37
  uh,
• 16:37
  relatively hard.
• 16:38
  All of those things combining.
• 16:39
  To the fact that Texas is the number one state
• 16:42
  Texas should be Republicans should be freaking out about,
• 16:45
  that's separate
• 16:47
  from the candidates,
• 16:47
  and it makes me a little nervous,
• 16:49
  honestly,
• 16:50
  more about Abbott.
• 16:50
  I mean,
• 16:51
  Paxson,
• 16:51
  I think is a separate story,
• 16:52
  but the Abbott situation where he's been falling a little bit,
• 16:55
  it's been close,
• 16:56
  uh,
• 16:56
  that's gonna make you,
• 16:57
  it's gonna make you have a little bit.
• 16:58
  Of,
• 16:59
  uh,
• 16:59
  of,
• 16:59
  of concern.
• 17:01
  So when people ask me now,
• 17:02
  uh,
• 17:02
  the Texas,
• 17:03
  uh,
• 17:03
  Tallarico,
• 17:04
  how do you feel?
• 17:04
  I'm gonna include this data,
• 17:05
  and I,
• 17:06
  and it might be something that helps you as well.
• 17:07
  We're gonna put it up at predictableshow.com.
• 17:10
  If it's not there when you get there,
• 17:11
  it'll be up soon.
• 17:11
  So,
• 17:12
  that's the run of that.
• 17:13
  There's a,
• 17:14
  every single state's in here,
• 17:15
  so you can look at all of them,
• 17:16
  but those are the key states that we're looking at right now.
• 17:18
  I wanna take a break
• 17:20
  and get over to David Ben Susan,
• 17:22
  Scott Delicious.
• 17:23
  Uh,
• 17:23
  he's on polymarket.
• 17:24
  He's all over the place.
• 17:25
  One of the biggest traders in the world.
• 17:26
  We'll get his perspective on the elections,
• 17:28
  including Texas,
• 17:29
  next.
• 17:47
  I want to bring in David Ben Soussan back to the program,
• 17:50
  AKA Scott Elicious.
• 17:51
  He is a prediction market trader for Team Scott Elicious,
• 17:53
  and you can find him on X
• 17:55
  at Scott on Polly.
• 17:57
  David,
• 17:58
  welcome back to the program.
• 18:00
  Hey,
• 18:00
  nice to see you,
• 18:01
  Stu.
• 18:01
  Yeah,
• 18:02
  it's great to have you.
• 18:02
  Uh,
• 18:03
  it's a big time.
• 18:03
  We're in election,
• 18:04
  uh,
• 18:04
  time here and,
• 18:05
  and,
• 18:06
  you know,
• 18:07
  it is,
• 18:07
  uh,
• 18:07
  it's,
• 18:07
  uh,
• 18:08
  I feel like such a huge time in prediction markets,
• 18:11
  you know,
• 18:11
  the,
• 18:12
  I guess like,
• 18:12
  I don't know what would even compete with it,
• 18:14
  maybe the Super Bowl and some of the big sporting events,
• 18:16
  but when you're talking about election time,
• 18:18
  especially in America,
• 18:20
  a lot of the focus goes to prediction markets.
• 18:22
  People are looking at the data all the time.
• 18:24
  And of course,
• 18:25
  you and I and so many others are trying to
• 18:27
  profit off of these elections and look for opportunities.
• 18:30
  Um,
• 18:31
  for people who don't know you,
• 18:33
  we did an episode of,
• 18:34
  uh,
• 18:34
  Predictable Legends with you where you'd kind of told your whole backstory,
• 18:37
  but like,
• 18:38
  give me,
• 18:39
  let me look back at the time looking specifically at elections.
• 18:42
  When you've looked at this before,
• 18:43
  give me an,
• 18:44
  uh,
• 18:44
  uh,
• 18:44
  uh,
• 18:44
  an example in the past where you've seen something in an election that you moved on,
• 18:50
  that you learned something from.
• 18:52
  Give me a little bit of the history.
• 18:54
  Um,
• 18:55
  one of the
• 18:56
  earliest successes was,
• 18:59
  um,
• 19:00
  ascertaining that Biden was gonna,
• 19:02
  was gonna not run again in,
• 19:03
  in favor of Kamala Harris.
• 19:06
  Um.
• 19:08
  So,
• 19:09
  I,
• 19:10
  I like to think I have a good BS detector,
• 19:13
  um,
• 19:14
  very important.
• 19:16
  We'll,
• 19:16
  we'll,
• 19:17
  you know,
• 19:17
  this,
• 19:18
  quite a few predictions on,
• 19:20
  on November 3rd,
• 19:21
  so we'll see,
• 19:22
  we'll see,
• 19:23
  uh,
• 19:24
  it's gonna be an interesting hurdle to see how many of them pan out.
• 19:27
  Yeah,
• 19:27
  give,
• 19:28
  give me the story real quick on the,
• 19:29
  on,
• 19:29
  uh,
• 19:29
  you mentioned this a little bit earlier on the,
• 19:31
  uh,
• 19:32
  on figuring out
• 19:33
  that Biden was gonna drop out.
• 19:35
  I mean,
• 19:35
  that is a,
• 19:37
  probably a once-in a-lifetime thing.
• 19:39
  This is not something that's like easily predictable with data,
• 19:42
  oh,
• 19:42
  this happens all the time.
• 19:44
  Joe Biden dropping out of that race is,
• 19:45
  it's probably the only time we'll ever see it in
• 19:47
  our lifetime where a candidate is that close to being,
• 19:50
  you know,
• 19:50
  he's already won the nomination,
• 19:52
  um,
• 19:52
  and then just drops out.
• 19:53
  I mean,
• 19:54
  I
• 19:54
  guess something somewhat similar did just happen in Maine,
• 19:57
  uh,
• 19:57
  but it's pretty rare.
• 19:58
  Uh,
• 19:58
  so,
• 19:59
  uh,
• 19:59
  David,
• 19:59
  how did you figure that out?
• 20:01
  Well,
• 20:01
  when you start seeing uh
• 20:04
  donors and,
• 20:05
  and,
• 20:05
  um,
• 20:06
  George Clooney,
• 20:07
  and,
• 20:08
  uh,
• 20:08
  but,
• 20:08
  but the big one for me was James Carville.
• 20:11
  When James Carville started saying this guy's gonna drop out,
• 20:14
  um,
• 20:15
  I already had a hunch that that there was some likelihood that Biden would drop out,
• 20:19
  and
• 20:20
  I would,
• 20:21
  I know a lot of uh
• 20:23
  Democrats in California,
• 20:25
  and the only ones I knew who wanted
• 20:28
  Biden to stay in the race.
• 20:30
  Um,
• 20:31
  love him,
• 20:32
  but they were all above 80 years old,
• 20:34
  the ones that wanted Biden to stay.
• 20:36
  So when there's such an outpouring of,
• 20:37
  of,
• 20:38
  uh,
• 20:39
  people who are saying he should,
• 20:40
  he should take off.
• 20:41
  So that's a,
• 20:41
  that's a bit anecdotal,
• 20:42
  but it,
• 20:43
  it was just an overall.
• 20:45
  I mean,
• 20:46
  who knows how many variables played into that one,
• 20:48
  but definitely,
• 20:49
  um,
• 20:50
  James Carville had something to do with it.
• 20:52
  BS detecting,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:53
  detection is really important in prediction markets because,
• 20:56
  uh,
• 20:57
  and I,
• 20:57
  I feel like this,
• 20:58
  there's a sister to that which is,
• 21:00
  uh,
• 21:01
  looking
• 21:02
  through hype,
• 21:03
  you know,
• 21:03
  there's always some big candidate or there's some big story that's
• 21:06
  in the news or something that everyone's saying is gonna happen.
• 21:09
  And I find that often if you kind of look at that
• 21:12
  and at least begin with skepticism,
• 21:14
  you can't just,
• 21:14
  every single time something happens or it's being promoted,
• 21:17
  you turn the other way.
• 21:18
  But if you kind of begin with a little bit of skepticism and say,
• 21:20
  is this something that's gonna last for a long time
• 21:23
  or is this something that is a fly by night,
• 21:25
  the news is gonna cycle is gonna change in two weeks,
• 21:28
  a lot of times you're able to see opportunities that others miss.
• 21:31
  Do you find that to be true?
• 21:34
  Oh,
• 21:34
  definitely,
• 21:35
  um,
• 21:36
  more,
• 21:37
  more on the,
• 21:37
  in the geopolitical realm.
• 21:39
  So we did really well predicting that there would be no regime change in Iran,
• 21:43
  and that was a major,
• 21:44
  major BS pipe detector thing because,
• 21:47
  uh,
• 21:48
  Both the Israeli government and the American government were
• 21:51
  in and the American administration were pushing regime change,
• 21:54
  and there was,
• 21:55
  there was,
• 21:55
  I think there was undue optimism because of what had happened in Venezuela,
• 21:59
  um,
• 22:00
  but
• 22:01
  that's,
• 22:01
  that's a,
• 22:02
  a major instance of uh
• 22:05
  Of hype,
• 22:06
  um.
• 22:07
  I think there's,
• 22:09
  I mean,
• 22:09
  right now there's hype all over the place.
• 22:11
  So,
• 22:11
  so talking about James Carville,
• 22:13
  it was interesting because I was watching his show the other day,
• 22:17
  and he was um
• 22:19
  saying that the race in Mississippi.
• 22:21
  Uh,
• 22:22
  is super close and that Mississippi could,
• 22:24
  could become Democrat.
• 22:26
  And I thought,
• 22:26
  OK,
• 22:27
  well,
• 22:27
  you know,
• 22:27
  I like James Carville.
• 22:29
  I,
• 22:29
  I,
• 22:29
  I think he's very smart,
• 22:30
  but we are in the middle of an election season,
• 22:32
  so
• 22:33
  he's probably hoping some Republicans are watching his show
• 22:36
  and divert resources to Mississippi because I think he knows,
• 22:39
  I,
• 22:39
  I,
• 22:39
  I would be very,
• 22:40
  very surprised if Mississippi actually went Democrat.
• 22:43
  Yeah,
• 22:43
  you know,
• 22:43
  it's,
• 22:44
  it's,
• 22:44
  it's funny because,
• 22:45
  look,
• 22:45
  we're gonna,
• 22:46
  you know,
• 22:46
  I want to get into the,
• 22:47
  the,
• 22:47
  this year's election with you,
• 22:48
  but
• 22:50
  This,
• 22:50
  this cycle,
• 22:51
  um,
• 22:52
  obviously is a Democratic lean,
• 22:53
  it's a Democratic climate,
• 22:55
  you know,
• 22:55
  it's quite clear to most people,
• 22:57
  I mean,
• 22:58
  certainly the markets believe that the Democrats are gonna win the House and
• 23:01
  have a,
• 23:02
  a good chance at winning the Senate.
• 23:04
  We've been kind of discussing that this week of like,
• 23:06
  where do we find the fringe of that?
• 23:08
  Like what,
• 23:09
  what's safe on that Republican side?
• 23:12
  We kind of identified Louisiana and,
• 23:13
  and Mississippi as a couple where,
• 23:15
  you know,
• 23:15
  you can get between,
• 23:17
  you know,
• 23:17
  8 and 10%.
• 23:19
  Uh,
• 23:19
  over the next month,
• 23:20
  uh,
• 23:20
  if,
• 23:21
  if you're looking for something safe,
• 23:22
  but like,
• 23:23
  when you have something that is coming at you like this and it looks like it could,
• 23:27
  at least in a possibility of a really mega big wave,
• 23:31
  is it safer to just kind of
• 23:33
  try to find your opportunities on the other side and don't try to find that edge?
• 23:39
  Probably,
• 23:40
  I mean,
• 23:40
  I,
• 23:40
  I,
• 23:41
  I think if you look out west and you wanna make a safe 5 or 6%
• 23:46
  on the Republican side,
• 23:48
  um,
• 23:49
  a little bit more,
• 23:50
  more west,
• 23:50
  you can do it.
• 23:51
  I mean,
• 23:52
  I'll,
• 23:52
  I'll,
• 23:53
  I don't have that much money in it and the liquidity is not that great anyway,
• 23:55
  so I'll share it with you if,
• 23:57
  if you want,
• 23:57
  but I think,
• 23:58
  uh,
• 23:59
  I think Idaho is probably pretty safe on the Republican side.
• 24:02
  I don't,
• 24:02
  I don't see Idaho becoming.
• 24:05
  Um,
• 24:06
  having a Democratic senator anytime soon.
• 24:08
  Yeah,
• 24:09
  that's,
• 24:09
  uh,
• 24:09
  James Risch out there,
• 24:10
  and he's running against,
• 24:11
  uh,
• 24:11
  Todd Achilles,
• 24:12
  who's a,
• 24:12
  who's an independent.
• 24:13
  Uh,
• 24:14
  you know,
• 24:14
  that is one of the strategies that Democrats are doing in
• 24:16
  these red states where they're running these kind of independents,
• 24:19
  you know,
• 24:19
  some of them are,
• 24:20
  maybe some of them are really independents,
• 24:21
  and most of them have Democratic leans and,
• 24:24
  uh,
• 24:24
  seem to be acting as independents.
• 24:27
  It's a little,
• 24:27
  adds a little bit of an unknown to it,
• 24:29
  uh,
• 24:29
  there,
• 24:30
  but yeah.
• 24:30
  Yeah,
• 24:30
  it does seem like you can get something
• 24:32
  relatively
• 24:33
  safe out west with that one,
• 24:35
  and there are still opportunities as well when you talk
• 24:37
  about on the Democratic side where uh some races that
• 24:40
  I don't know,
• 24:41
  you know,
• 24:41
  I look at these things and I'm like there's just no,
• 24:43
  like Kathy Hochle was one I was putting money in the governor of New York,
• 24:47
  uh,
• 24:48
  relatively recently because she was sitting there at like 90%.
• 24:51
  And,
• 24:52
  you know,
• 24:53
  look,
• 24:53
  I think I'm not a fan.
• 24:55
  I don't think she's been a very good governor,
• 24:56
  honestly,
• 24:57
  but
• 24:58
  a Democrat in that state in this climate,
• 25:02
  uh,
• 25:02
  it just doesn't feel like,
• 25:03
  you know,
• 25:03
  she,
• 25:03
  she,
• 25:04
  I,
• 25:04
  I,
• 25:04
  it feels like double digits,
• 25:05
  low double digits is the most likely,
• 25:08
  uh,
• 25:08
  outcome on that.
• 25:09
  And the fact that you can still pick up 10%,
• 25:11
  these,
• 25:11
  these aren't investments that are available in a,
• 25:13
  in a,
• 25:13
  you know,
• 25:14
  in a lot of other arenas.
• 25:17
  Yeah,
• 25:17
  this is very true,
• 25:18
  Stu.
• 25:18
  If I had
• 25:20
  an extra $5 million on the eve of the election,
• 25:23
  I would probably try to put as much as I could to make 4% in California on,
• 25:27
  on uh Hilton losing,
• 25:29
  because
• 25:30
  you'd have to have a really,
• 25:31
  really major,
• 25:33
  some type of
• 25:34
  ridiculous scandal for,
• 25:36
  for a Democrat to win,
• 25:37
  for,
• 25:38
  pardon me,
• 25:38
  a Republican to win in California.
• 25:40
  So there are,
• 25:41
  and if you look at the,
• 25:42
  you know,
• 25:42
  if you make 4%.
• 25:44
  In,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:46
  in a week,
• 25:46
  what's that,
• 25:47
  like 180% annualized?
• 25:49
  I mean,
• 25:49
  these are,
• 25:50
  these are serious numbers.
• 25:51
  Uh,
• 25:52
  you just have to catch these things at the right time and
• 25:55
  And um
• 25:56
  hope that that the 1 in 1000 or 1
• 25:59
  in 10,000 event doesn't materialize while you're holding it.
• 26:02
  I want to get to some of the positions that you
• 26:04
  have in some of these big markets here in a minute,
• 26:05
  but
• 26:06
  how do you think about that?
• 26:07
  One of the things in our,
• 26:08
  what is our predictable constitution,
• 26:09
  or Fifth Amendment
• 26:10
  is a time equals risk.
• 26:12
  And,
• 26:13
  you know,
• 26:13
  when you look at that and you have something where like you might say,
• 26:16
  it's a sure thing,
• 26:17
  like it's basically 100% in your mind.
• 26:21
  You can,
• 26:21
  if you go earlier,
• 26:23
  you can get a couple of extra percent usually,
• 26:25
  right?
• 26:25
  And it's tempting to just grab those things,
• 26:28
  but you have to number one,
• 26:29
  think about
• 26:30
  the potential of something crazy happening,
• 26:32
  you never know.
• 26:33
  And number two,
• 26:33
  it's,
• 26:34
  it's about,
• 26:34
  uh,
• 26:35
  how to use your capital,
• 26:36
  right?
• 26:36
  Like how do you,
• 26:37
  how do you weigh those things because you can lock something,
• 26:39
  you lock a bunch of money up in 5% over 3 months and you're probably
• 26:43
  losing as to what you could do in other markets.
• 26:48
  Yeah,
• 26:48
  this is very true.
• 26:49
  Um,
• 26:50
  in stocks,
• 26:51
  you have in stock options,
• 26:52
  I don't know if you follow stocks at all,
• 26:53
  but in options,
• 26:54
  you have like a volatility premium where the
• 26:56
  options are more expensive the further in time,
• 26:58
  um,
• 26:59
  out that they are.
• 27:00
  Uh,
• 27:01
  I just thought about this,
• 27:02
  and,
• 27:02
  and it's interesting because
• 27:05
  Maybe female candidates are safer because they're
• 27:07
  way less likely to have sex scandals,
• 27:09
  although,
• 27:10
  although I guess Kirsten cinema
• 27:12
  and um
• 27:14
  And what's her name on the Republican side might be a couple of exceptions,
• 27:17
  but by and large,
• 27:18
  it seems like men are more um
• 27:20
  uh vulnerable to to these things.
• 27:23
  Yeah,
• 27:23
  that does seem like a story that's been told many,
• 27:25
  many times over the years,
• 27:26
  doesn't it?
• 27:26
  Uh,
• 27:26
  it's true,
• 27:27
  you never know when that stuff's gonna pop up.
• 27:29
  The October surprise thing,
• 27:30
  I feel like is always something that makes me very nervous
• 27:33
  right around this time of year where I'm looking at these markets and I'm like,
• 27:36
  Is,
• 27:37
  did this guy murder somebody?
• 27:38
  Is there gonna be some story that comes out next week that
• 27:41
  he had a hit and run at a by a kindergarten somewhere
• 27:44
  and all of a sudden,
• 27:45
  uh,
• 27:45
  he's gonna get to,
• 27:46
  you know,
• 27:46
  his entire campaign
• 27:48
  is going to be destroyed.
• 27:49
  That is something to worry about.
• 27:51
  But generally speaking,
• 27:53
  those are kind of outliers,
• 27:54
  right?
• 27:54
  Those,
• 27:54
  those aren't
• 27:56
  as common as I think the media wants you to believe.
• 28:01
  Right,
• 28:01
  and that's probably also why it's,
• 28:03
  it's,
• 28:03
  uh,
• 28:04
  I think it's better to bet no on,
• 28:06
  on the,
• 28:07
  uh,
• 28:08
  party that you think is gonna lose.
• 28:10
  That way your,
• 28:10
  your prediction doesn't become
• 28:12
  specific to a certain
• 28:15
  Um,
• 28:16
  individual,
• 28:17
  although in a lot of the markets,
• 28:18
  if you read the fine print,
• 28:19
  they,
• 28:19
  they base it on party instead of individuals anyhow.
• 28:22
  Um,
• 28:23
  Koshi's probably a little bit more pedantic regarding that.
• 28:26
  I know polymarket generally bases it on party,
• 28:28
  but
• 28:29
  yeah,
• 28:29
  I mean,
• 28:30
  so many,
• 28:30
  so many,
• 28:31
  um,
• 28:32
  So many things can happen.
• 28:33
  I mean,
• 28:34
  you've had,
• 28:35
  you've had,
• 28:35
  uh,
• 28:36
  situations in the past where people have gotten sick and,
• 28:38
  and been in,
• 28:39
  been hospitalized or died in,
• 28:41
  in certain elections.
• 28:42
  So
• 28:43
  there's definitely no shortage of uh
• 28:46
  Of uh incredible things that can happen,
• 28:48
  and that's why,
• 28:50
  uh,
• 28:50
  particularly in an election like this one with the,
• 28:53
  what I
• 28:54
  think is probably going to be a big blue wave,
• 28:56
  it's still important to position size.
• 28:58
  A lot of things could happen between now and the election.
• 29:01
  You could have developments in Iran,
• 29:03
  you could have some type of a deal.
• 29:04
  Although I'm very skeptical about that.
• 29:05
  I think the Iranians are gonna um
• 29:08
  Just lead,
• 29:09
  uh,
• 29:09
  lead,
• 29:10
  uh,
• 29:10
  Trump along and,
• 29:11
  and are are
• 29:13
  specifically going to try not to do a deal before the elections.
• 29:17
  Um,
• 29:19
  kind of,
• 29:19
  uh,
• 29:20
  reminiscent of,
• 29:21
  um,
• 29:22
  Back in the Reagan,
• 29:24
  uh,
• 29:24
  Carter days when,
• 29:25
  when there was the hostage crisis,
• 29:27
  some people think that that lasted longer than it
• 29:30
  than it,
• 29:31
  uh,
• 29:31
  necessarily could have,
• 29:33
  uh,
• 29:33
  because of the US election.
• 29:34
  So there are,
• 29:35
  there are some,
• 29:36
  some maybe some parallels there,
• 29:38
  um,
• 29:39
  but you never know.
• 29:40
  I mean,
• 29:40
  uh,
• 29:41
  there could be,
• 29:42
  uh,
• 29:44
  something in,
• 29:45
  in the Russia-Ukraine war that influences things.
• 29:48
  Who knows?
• 29:49
  I mean,
• 29:50
  Yeah,
• 29:51
  it does seem like to Iran,
• 29:52
  uh,
• 29:52
  you know,
• 29:53
  you see their actions over time.
• 29:54
  They're thinking of this at a totally different timeline than when our,
• 29:57
  our,
• 29:58
  you know,
• 29:58
  1st Tuesday in November 2nd Tuesday in November.
• 30:00
  What is it,
• 30:01
  1st or 2nd,
• 30:01
  2nd 1st Tuesday in November.
• 30:03
  Um,
• 30:04
  that's not their timeline.
• 30:05
  They're not thinking like that at all.
• 30:07
  Um,
• 30:07
  so that's a,
• 30:08
  I think
• 30:09
  I've done really well on the,
• 30:10
  um,
• 30:11
  the Strait of Hormuz markets,
• 30:12
  uh,
• 30:12
  that it will not go back to normal
• 30:14
  because it's just like it's not going back to norm.
• 30:16
  I don't know if it's ever going back to normal,
• 30:17
  frankly,
• 30:18
  they've now built a bunch of ways to get around it.
• 30:20
  Um,
• 30:21
  so I don't know if we'll ever see it go back to normal,
• 30:23
  but,
• 30:23
  uh,
• 30:23
  that,
• 30:24
  that's been a profitable trade for me so far.
• 30:26
  Uh,
• 30:26
  David,
• 30:26
  I wanna take a break.
• 30:26
  I wanna come back on the other side with,
• 30:28
  uh,
• 30:28
  some of the biggest markets in the election.
• 30:31
  You've got some positions in these markets.
• 30:33
  I want to get your thoughts on them because we're,
• 30:35
  we're in the crunch time
• 30:36
  and we're talking to David Ben Sousan,
• 30:38
  Scottylicious.
• 30:39
  Uh,
• 30:39
  we'll be back with him in just a second.
• 30:53
  We're back with David Ben Soussan,
• 30:54
  AKA Scottylicious,
• 30:55
  a prediction market trader who's made 7 figures in prediction markets,
• 30:59
  a legend of the industry,
• 31:00
  and,
• 31:00
  and,
• 31:00
  uh,
• 31:01
  uh,
• 31:01
  someone I'm really happy to be able to talk to about this stuff.
• 31:04
  And
• 31:04
  when we get close to elections,
• 31:06
  uh,
• 31:06
  David,
• 31:07
  there are a lot of races that kind of like
• 31:08
  rise above it as far as like general interest,
• 31:11
  right?
• 31:11
  People are talking about them all the time.
• 31:13
  That's not always where the best prediction market,
• 31:15
  um,
• 31:16
  uh,
• 31:16
  attention is.
• 31:17
  Um,
• 31:18
  you,
• 31:18
  you know,
• 31:19
  one of the races that we talked to you about last time you were on,
• 31:22
  and if people,
• 31:22
  uh,
• 31:22
  listened,
• 31:23
  they did very,
• 31:23
  very well on this trade,
• 31:25
  um,
• 31:26
  the LA mayoral race.
• 31:27
  Now,
• 31:28
  the,
• 31:28
  the,
• 31:28
  the primary was the hot ticket.
• 31:30
  Everyone was talking about it because of Spencer Pratt and everything else,
• 31:33
  and I know
• 31:34
  you,
• 31:34
  I,
• 31:34
  a lot of different,
• 31:35
  uh,
• 31:36
  prediction market traders did very well on a,
• 31:37
  on a no Pratt position.
• 31:39
  Um,
• 31:40
  you were talking about Nitia Rahman,
• 31:42
  who's the,
• 31:43
  uh,
• 31:43
  kind of socialist candidate in this race going up against Karen Bass.
• 31:47
  Give me your idea of,
• 31:48
  you know,
• 31:48
  are you,
• 31:49
  how you're looking at this race.
• 31:50
  Uh,
• 31:50
  have you changed at all?
• 31:52
  What's your current position?
• 31:55
  So,
• 31:56
  this is definitely one of the,
• 31:57
  one of the riskier ones because there are a lot of undecideds.
• 32:01
  Um,
• 32:03
  I,
• 32:04
  this was,
• 32:04
  this,
• 32:05
  it's been a tricky one for me because I held Nitia Raman
• 32:08
  uh
• 32:10
  since the low 30s,
• 32:13
  and then,
• 32:13
  to be honest with you,
• 32:14
  at one point,
• 32:15
  I sold,
• 32:17
  and then I saw that uh LA Times Berkeley poll and I got back in.
• 32:21
  So this is,
• 32:21
  this has been a a tricky one for me.
• 32:24
  Um,
• 32:25
  I think that there's
• 32:28
  a lot of,
• 32:28
  a lot of,
• 32:29
  uh,
• 32:29
  hatred for bass,
• 32:31
  uh,
• 32:32
  obviously because of the fires and,
• 32:34
  and,
• 32:34
  uh,
• 32:34
  the homeless,
• 32:35
  uh,
• 32:36
  situation in Los Angeles,
• 32:37
  which hasn't improved much in the past 4 years.
• 32:40
  Um.
• 32:42
  But there was also uh an important event where there was this fire
• 32:47
  in a part of uh Los Angeles called Boyle Heights,
• 32:51
  and
• 32:52
  for weeks there it it was um
• 32:55
  It was a fire in a food storage facility,
• 32:57
  and this was over,
• 32:58
  uh,
• 32:59
  over the summer,
• 33:01
  uh,
• 33:01
  or it might have been,
• 33:02
  it might have been late spring,
• 33:03
  I'm not sure,
• 33:03
  you know,
• 33:04
  when,
• 33:04
  once you get to your 40s,
• 33:05
  time just seem,
• 33:06
  time just seems to
• 33:08
  pass by,
• 33:09
  goodness knows where,
• 33:10
  right?
• 33:10
  Yeah,
• 33:10
  no kidding.
• 33:11
  Um,
• 33:11
  wait till you get to your 50s.
• 33:13
  Oh man,
• 33:15
  not looking forward to it.
• 33:17
  Uh,
• 33:18
  so,
• 33:19
  so there was this fire and uh it was in a food storage facility,
• 33:24
  and
• 33:25
  the mayor
• 33:27
  told everyone that the,
• 33:28
  that the air was safe.
• 33:29
  Now,
• 33:30
  people,
• 33:30
  it's a very,
• 33:31
  um,
• 33:32
  dense neighborhood,
• 33:34
  uh,
• 33:34
  Boyle Heights,
• 33:35
  and,
• 33:35
  um,
• 33:37
  uh,
• 33:37
  very,
• 33:38
  uh,
• 33:39
  I think primarily,
• 33:41
  uh,
• 33:41
  Mexican American out there.
• 33:43
  And people could smell the,
• 33:46
  the smoke and the
• 33:47
  spoiling food.
• 33:49
  And uh
• 33:51
  it was later discovered that there was some type of connection
• 33:54
  between a consultant for the company that that owned the,
• 33:57
  the food storage facility that burned down
• 34:00
  and someone on,
• 34:01
  on uh Mayor Bass's team.
• 34:03
  And so,
• 34:05
  you know,
• 34:05
  city,
• 34:06
  the city,
• 34:07
  and we kept,
• 34:08
  I mean,
• 34:08
  the fire department kept
• 34:10
  letting the fire burn and burn and burn and burn.
• 34:13
  And after a while,
• 34:14
  you know,
• 34:15
  I would talk to friends and it'd be like,
• 34:17
  well,
• 34:17
  why the hell are they,
• 34:18
  I mean,
• 34:18
  OK,
• 34:19
  let it burn a little bit if you have to,
• 34:21
  but this is just ridiculous.
• 34:22
  So,
• 34:23
  um,
• 34:24
  there are very local things that maybe don't show up
• 34:26
  in national media that that can influence these races,
• 34:30
  um.
• 34:31
  In Bass's favor,
• 34:34
  more recently,
• 34:35
  uh,
• 34:36
  Nita Rahman went in front of
• 34:41
  the Jewish Federation forum
• 34:43
  and defended calling the Gaza thing a genocide.
• 34:47
  Uh,
• 34:48
  I think that's hurt her with,
• 34:50
  with people who identify some people who identify as Jewish.
• 34:54
  So,
• 34:54
  tons of tons of local issues,
• 34:56
  but,
• 34:57
  uh,
• 34:57
  at the end of the day,
• 35:00
  There's an anti-incumbent
• 35:02
  mood in this country.
• 35:04
  And um
• 35:06
  I think that's gonna also anti,
• 35:08
  I mean,
• 35:09
  Bass is in her 70s.
• 35:12
  Uh,
• 35:13
  Ramen is,
• 35:13
  is much younger,
• 35:14
  I believe she's in her 40s.
• 35:16
  Um,
• 35:17
  age becomes a factor when,
• 35:19
  when,
• 35:19
  you know,
• 35:19
  there have been
• 35:20
  many articles about,
• 35:22
  about the age of politicians in this country and how young people are,
• 35:25
  are pretty much fed up.
• 35:27
  So I think all those things can,
• 35:28
  can play a role,
• 35:29
  and I think,
• 35:30
  I don't think it's going to be an 11 point margin.
• 35:33
  I,
• 35:33
  uh,
• 35:33
  like the,
• 35:34
  like the LA Times Berkeley poll had had uh Nitia 11 points ahead of Bass.
• 35:39
  I don't,
• 35:39
  I don't think it's gonna be like that,
• 35:40
  but
• 35:41
  Um,
• 35:42
  maybe,
• 35:43
  maybe 23
• 35:45
  4% points in favor close election.
• 35:48
  Yeah,
• 35:49
  that's a,
• 35:49
  that's an interesting one,
• 35:49
  and I could be wrong.
• 35:51
  Yeah,
• 35:51
  no,
• 35:51
  I,
• 35:51
  that's,
• 35:52
  I could be very wrong.
• 35:53
  That's a,
• 35:53
  it's a tough one,
• 35:54
  but I mean,
• 35:54
  I think there is a unique distaste for Bass there,
• 35:57
  and it's why Pratt was even a story,
• 35:59
  uh,
• 36:00
  and of course they don't have the opposition maybe to
• 36:02
  a far left wing candidate that other regions do.
• 36:04
  So
• 36:05
  what's the market out of that,
• 36:05
  uh,
• 36:06
  Adam,
• 36:06
  you can show me that market real quick.
• 36:07
  This is,
• 36:08
  this is.
• 36:08
  The kalshi version of it,
• 36:09
  but it's,
• 36:09
  uh,
• 36:09
  57% for Raman right now or ramen,
• 36:12
  whatever.
• 36:13
  I keep thinking of her as noodles if I call her ramen,
• 36:15
  so I always say Raman,
• 36:16
  but,
• 36:16
  uh,
• 36:16
  57% for her,
• 36:18
  43% for bass,
• 36:19
  still pretty close and some real value no matter what side you want to get in on that.
• 36:22
  I wanna go over to Alaska,
• 36:23
  David,
• 36:24
  you talked about this as well.
• 36:25
  I saw this,
• 36:25
  uh,
• 36:26
  you're talking about this on social media,
• 36:27
  a position you took in Alaska on Peltola.
• 36:30
  Why?
• 36:32
  Uh,
• 36:33
  she's heavily favored by independence.
• 36:35
  Alaska has a large independent streak.
• 36:37
  Um,
• 36:38
  she's,
• 36:39
  she's not,
• 36:40
  she's not your,
• 36:40
  uh,
• 36:42
  extreme left politically correct identity politics type Democrat.
• 36:46
  Uh,
• 36:46
  she seems a lot more pragmatic.
• 36:49
  Um,
• 36:50
  definitely not politically correct correct with the
• 36:52
  statements that that came out that she
• 36:55
  made towards some of her employees,
• 36:56
  right?
• 36:57
  You and I had like different conspiracy theories about that.
• 37:00
  I,
• 37:01
  I thought they,
• 37:01
  New York Times almost did it on purpose so it
• 37:03
  wouldn't come out at the last minute and hurt her.
• 37:06
  Um,
• 37:07
  there's the other Sullivan
• 37:08
  in Alaska,
• 37:09
  right,
• 37:10
  which is kind of interesting,
• 37:11
  which is gonna leach maybe
• 37:12
  1 or 2%,
• 37:13
  but in a very close race like this,
• 37:15
  that,
• 37:15
  that can be,
• 37:16
  uh,
• 37:17
  That can be very important,
• 37:18
  and then the ranked choice seems to favor uh Peltola.
• 37:23
  And also,
• 37:24
  uh,
• 37:25
  Alaska is a bit isolated from the,
• 37:28
  from the rest of the country,
• 37:29
  and it's my understanding that prices there are even more
• 37:32
  expensive than a lot of places in the United States,
• 37:34
  and that doesn't favor incumbents.
• 37:36
  A lot of people all over the place are fed up at at high prices,
• 37:40
  high gas prices,
• 37:41
  high,
• 37:42
  high food prices.
• 37:43
  And so,
• 37:44
  uh,
• 37:45
  all that I think will,
• 37:46
  will result in,
• 37:47
  uh,
• 37:48
  Utola winning.
• 37:49
  Yeah,
• 37:49
  we were talking about this a little bit earlier as well.
• 37:51
  Uh,
• 37:51
  Alaska,
• 37:51
  the most diesel dependent state in America,
• 37:54
  uh,
• 37:54
  and diesel at all-time highs right now.
• 37:56
  So Alaska certainly has elements,
• 37:59
  uh,
• 37:59
  of,
• 38:00
  you know,
• 38:00
  and Peltola has already done well in that state as you were talking about,
• 38:03
  uh,
• 38:03
  on,
• 38:03
  uh,
• 38:03
  on X.
• 38:04
  It's,
• 38:04
  it's like she's already kind of a successful candidate there.
• 38:07
  People do seem to like her,
• 38:08
  especially independents.
• 38:09
  It's gonna be a tough road,
• 38:10
  I think,
• 38:11
  for
• 38:11
  one of the two both Sullivans,
• 38:13
  I think it's gonna be a tough road for them,
• 38:14
  uh,
• 38:15
  in that particular race.
• 38:16
  And I,
• 38:16
  I can't let you leave here,
• 38:18
  uh,
• 38:18
  David,
• 38:19
  without talking about the,
• 38:20
  the state that I'm in right now,
• 38:21
  my home state of Texas.
• 38:23
  The Texas Senate is,
• 38:24
  I don't know,
• 38:25
  maybe the marquee race of this election.
• 38:28
  People can't believe,
• 38:29
  you know,
• 38:29
  that a Democrat could win here.
• 38:31
  Uh,
• 38:32
  Paxton going up against Tallarico.
• 38:34
  What's your take on this race?
• 38:37
  Uh,
• 38:38
  I bought a little bit of of uh Talarico a couple weeks ago,
• 38:42
  just a tad,
• 38:43
  a very,
• 38:43
  very,
• 38:44
  very,
• 38:44
  very small position.
• 38:46
  Um,
• 38:47
  I recently added to it,
• 38:48
  and now it's become a medium position.
• 38:51
  Uh,
• 38:52
  poll after poll after poll
• 38:55
  shows Tarico in the lead,
• 38:57
  and,
• 38:57
  and,
• 38:57
  um,
• 38:58
  if you research the,
• 39:01
  uh,
• 39:02
  race between,
• 39:02
  uh,
• 39:03
  Cruz versus Beto.
• 39:05
  And uh
• 39:07
  Beto was who ended up losing by what,
• 39:09
  2.5 or close to 3 points.
• 39:11
  He was never leading versus Cruz in the polls.
• 39:14
  And Tallarico's been leading,
• 39:16
  I mean,
• 39:17
  and then you've got um
• 39:19
  a certain segment of the,
• 39:21
  of the Republicans
• 39:22
  are gonna probably stay home.
• 39:24
  So you've got uh
• 39:26
  people like,
• 39:27
  uh,
• 39:27
  for instance,
• 39:28
  Karl Rove saying that that he wouldn't.
• 39:31
  You know,
• 39:31
  insinuating,
• 39:32
  he didn't just,
• 39:32
  he didn't say it black and white,
• 39:34
  but he pretty much insinuated that candidate quality
• 39:37
  was a huge thing and that he wouldn't vote for people,
• 39:40
  uh.
• 39:41
  Like Ken Paxton,
• 39:43
  uh,
• 39:43
  or like the current railroad commissioner,
• 39:45
  I forget what his name is,
• 39:46
  um,
• 39:47
  right,
• 39:48
  and then you've got,
• 39:48
  uh,
• 39:49
  in the,
• 39:49
  in the,
• 39:50
  in southern Texas,
• 39:51
  you've got
• 39:52
  Um,
• 39:54
  ICE kind of
• 39:55
  aggravating Latinos by not necessarily going after hardened criminals.
• 40:01
  And there,
• 40:02
  there's kind of this word game that the administration plays,
• 40:04
  and,
• 40:05
  and forgive me if I'm,
• 40:06
  you know,
• 40:07
  going into controversial territory here,
• 40:09
  but they play this word game and they say,
• 40:11
  oh,
• 40:11
  they're criminals,
• 40:12
  and then they say,
• 40:13
  oh well,
• 40:13
  they're criminals because they crossed the border illegally.
• 40:15
  Well,
• 40:15
  OK,
• 40:16
  yeah,
• 40:16
  technically you're right,
• 40:17
  but that's different from someone who's,
• 40:19
  who,
• 40:19
  you know,
• 40:20
  killed or maimed somebody.
• 40:22
  Um,
• 40:23
  so,
• 40:23
  and I know there've been recently,
• 40:25
  there have been orders to,
• 40:26
  to,
• 40:26
  to kind of lay off on those types of,
• 40:28
  uh,
• 40:29
  of pursuits,
• 40:30
  uh,
• 40:30
  from,
• 40:30
  from what I heard.
• 40:31
  But I think that's still gonna affect,
• 40:34
  uh,
• 40:34
  the Latinos in,
• 40:35
  in Southern Texas,
• 40:36
  who tend to be,
• 40:37
  for instance,
• 40:38
  way more conservative than the Latinos in California.
• 40:40
  But when they see
• 40:42
  people who look like them,
• 40:43
  um,
• 40:44
  you know,
• 40:44
  being hauled off,
• 40:45
  uh,
• 40:46
  it,
• 40:46
  it's just not gonna,
• 40:47
  not gonna help things for,
• 40:48
  uh,
• 40:50
  For Paxton,
• 40:51
  yeah,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:51
  and then I was talking brief,
• 40:53
  brief,
• 40:53
  real quick,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:53
  David.
• 40:53
  I don't mean to interrupt.
• 40:55
  I was to talk about your point here.
• 40:57
  I was,
• 40:57
  I was discussing this with someone who's a Hispanic,
• 40:59
  uh,
• 41:00
  uh,
• 41:00
  voter here in Texas,
• 41:02
  uh,
• 41:02
  conservative voter,
• 41:04
  and she kind of outlined almost exactly what you just said,
• 41:06
  which was like,
• 41:07
  I like Trump.
• 41:08
  I like the border to be secure.
• 41:10
  I voted for that.
• 41:12
  But I don't like the way that they've executed this.
• 41:14
  I don't like the way that they are going into these communities and,
• 41:17
  and,
• 41:17
  and,
• 41:17
  you know,
• 41:18
  doing certain,
• 41:18
  certain types of arrests,
• 41:19
  and again,
• 41:20
  like you can have arguments on the policy there,
• 41:21
  but
• 41:22
  what's important for prediction markets here is
• 41:24
  understanding what the voters are thinking,
• 41:26
  um,
• 41:26
  and that does seem to be a real,
• 41:27
  a real factor,
• 41:28
  uh,
• 41:29
  in this,
• 41:29
  particularly in the Senate race.
• 41:30
  I didn't mean to interrupt,
• 41:31
  go ahead.
• 41:32
  No,
• 41:32
  no,
• 41:33
  no,
• 41:33
  no,
• 41:33
  and tell me if I'm too long-winded,
• 41:34
  but I,
• 41:35
  I,
• 41:35
  I,
• 41:36
  I had to come up with a long list to justify this one because it is pretty risky.
• 41:40
  I mean,
• 41:40
  Texas does not go Democrat,
• 41:42
  uh,
• 41:43
  very easily.
• 41:43
  So,
• 41:44
  this is a high risk,
• 41:45
  uh,
• 41:46
  uh,
• 41:46
  proposition.
• 41:47
  Goodness knows I've,
• 41:48
  you know,
• 41:49
  I've been wrong plenty of times.
• 41:50
  I,
• 41:50
  this is a very,
• 41:51
  very tough business.
• 41:52
  You win some and you lose some,
• 41:54
  and
• 41:55
  sometimes you have a streak where you win for like 1 year and a half years,
• 41:58
  and then you lose for 2 or 3 months.
• 42:01
  Uh,
• 42:02
  so,
• 42:02
  so this is not an easy,
• 42:03
  an easy thing,
• 42:04
  but,
• 42:05
  um,
• 42:06
  There's also the,
• 42:07
  the
• 42:08
  Thomas Massey libertarian type phenomenon where on an,
• 42:13
  on a,
• 42:14
  if people are,
• 42:15
  are voting um
• 42:17
  based on current uh leadership,
• 42:20
  uh,
• 42:21
  I believe.
• 42:23
  A lot of Republican,
• 42:25
  typically
• 42:26
  younger males thought that there,
• 42:28
  this was gonna be an administration that that didn't um
• 42:31
  go to war,
• 42:33
  no more forever wars.
• 42:34
  So,
• 42:35
  when you see people like uh Tucker Carlson and uh
• 42:40
  uh Megyn Kelly being highly skeptical of the
• 42:43
  current administration and a lot of their actions,
• 42:45
  and then
• 42:46
  to a lesser degree and,
• 42:47
  and a little bit more um
• 42:49
  way out there would be Alex Jones and
• 42:52
  Candace Owens and God forbid,
• 42:53
  even Nick Fuentes,
• 42:55
  um,
• 42:56
  going away from,
• 42:57
  from,
• 42:57
  uh,
• 42:58
  the current administration,
• 42:59
  that's gonna take,
• 43:00
  that's gonna take a certain segment of,
• 43:01
  of,
• 43:02
  uh,
• 43:02
  Republican voters with them and,
• 43:04
  and maybe motivate them to stay home.
• 43:07
  Um,
• 43:08
  yeah,
• 43:08
  I don't know what's,
• 43:08
  what's your take on that.
• 43:10
  You know,
• 43:10
  I,
• 43:10
  I've had a hard time,
• 43:12
  uh,
• 43:12
  you know,
• 43:12
  I live in Texas.
• 43:13
  I,
• 43:13
  I have a hard time believing that they're gonna vote for James Tallarico,
• 43:17
  but I gotta say,
• 43:17
  I mean,
• 43:18
  the,
• 43:18
  the data tells me that that's the story,
• 43:20
  right?
• 43:20
  Like I,
• 43:20
  you,
• 43:20
  you're right.
• 43:21
  I mean,
• 43:21
  he's been ahead in all of these polls,
• 43:23
  you know,
• 43:23
  I have a,
• 43:24
  a belief that,
• 43:25
  uh,
• 43:25
  at least some of these voters will,
• 43:27
  will wind up kind of coming home once they get into that booth,
• 43:30
  but I don't,
• 43:30
  I mean,
• 43:30
  if it's 6 points,
• 43:32
  if that's the real margin,
• 43:33
  I don't,
• 43:33
  I don't,
• 43:33
  I don't know that he,
• 43:34
  he'll probably,
• 43:35
  I think he probably will lose Paxton.
• 43:37
  Um,
• 43:37
  uh,
• 43:38
  but,
• 43:38
  uh,
• 43:39
  I,
• 43:39
  I have more faith.
• 43:40
  I,
• 43:40
  I've been,
• 43:41
  I have a small,
• 43:41
  very small position on that,
• 43:42
  in that Senate race.
• 43:44
  The,
• 43:44
  the,
• 43:44
  the bigger position I have is in the governor's race,
• 43:46
  and even that one has become,
• 43:48
  uh,
• 43:49
  a little bit more questionable.
• 43:50
  Abbott typically leading in most of the polls,
• 43:53
  but not all of them,
• 43:54
  and that race has even become close.
• 43:56
  I would love to keep going on with you on this,
• 43:58
  David.
• 43:58
  We're,
• 43:58
  we're out of time for the moment.
• 43:59
  Um,
• 44:00
  I would love to have you back on again to kind of keep going on this.
• 44:02
  Uh,
• 44:02
  and if you have a new position,
• 44:04
  please,
• 44:04
  uh,
• 44:04
  you know,
• 44:04
  let us know,
• 44:05
  but,
• 44:05
  uh,
• 44:06
  it's David Ben Soussan,
• 44:06
  AKA Scottylicious.
• 44:08
  Uh,
• 44:08
  you can follow him on X at Scott on Polly,
• 44:11
  and,
• 44:11
  uh,
• 44:11
  David,
• 44:11
  you know,
• 44:12
  it's a great perspective and I love hearing,
• 44:14
  uh,
• 44:14
  the way you break this stuff down.
• 44:15
  So thanks so much for joining us and telling everybody about it.
• 44:19
  Thank you,
• 44:19
  Stu.
• 44:19
  Wonderful catching up as always.
• 44:33
  I was talking to the subscribers at PredictableShow.com as
• 44:36
  I was watching multiple debates last night and we've,
• 44:39
  you know,
• 44:39
  spent hours in there just chatting about the debates and
• 44:41
  one of the things that came out of this was,
• 44:43
  I've hit something like 6 or 7 times in mention markets,
• 44:46
  particularly about debates.
• 44:48
  And I was like,
• 44:48
  someone said,
• 44:49
  hey,
• 44:49
  this should be a thesis statement for you.
• 44:50
  And I was like,
• 44:51
  you're right,
• 44:51
  we're doing that right now.
• 44:53
  So,
• 44:53
  this is what we have.
• 44:54
  Our active thesis statement
• 44:55
  is in every debate,
• 44:57
  someone,
• 44:58
  usually a local journalist,
• 45:00
  will ask about data centers.
• 45:02
  Data centers is usually one of the phrases you can
• 45:04
  look for in a mention market about a debate,
• 45:06
  and they
• 45:07
  always ask a question about it.
• 45:08
  There's always,
• 45:09
  now,
• 45:10
  the candidate has to say it for you to win,
• 45:11
  to be fair,
• 45:12
  to be,
• 45:12
  uh,
• 45:13
  to be,
• 45:13
  uh,
• 45:14
  fair,
• 45:14
  but
• 45:15
  they almost always do.
• 45:16
  They almost always say AI.
• 45:17
  They almost always say data centers.
• 45:18
  So I've hit that multiple times.
• 45:20
  I wanted to share it with you this night because there is a,
• 45:21
  uh,
• 45:22
  a big,
• 45:22
  uh,
• 45:22
  debate tonight.
• 45:23
  It is,
• 45:23
  uh,
• 45:24
  the Michigan debate,
• 45:25
  so maybe we'll be on,
• 45:26
  uh,
• 45:26
  chat once again at predictableShow.com.
• 45:28
  It's all the time we have.
• 45:29
  Good night.