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Powell Obstruction · Politix

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: No,
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  it's ISIS shooting people in the face and violating civil
• 0:04
  rights of citizens and
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: immigrants alike at like this astonishing clip.
• 0:10
  And I think this is your aphantasia creating like a distance
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  between yourself and
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  SPEAKER_00: me and Ezra and all the other people you just mentioned.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: I just would be up at night all day being like,
• 0:22
  Joe Biden brought American democracy to a breaking point by
• 0:29
  seeming to signal that
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  it was a good time for people without visas to come to the
• 0:34
  United States of America
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  SPEAKER_01: illegally.
• 0:40
  Hey everyone,
• 0:41
  you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: This week,
• 0:45
  we would like to talk about Donald Trump's continued cover-up
• 0:48
  of the Epstein files
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  SPEAKER_00: and his mounting losses in Congress,
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  SPEAKER_00: particularly on the issue of healthcare.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: But like Michael Corleone, he keeps pulling us back in.
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  He tried to strong arm the Federal Reserve by cooking up
• 1:01
  baseless criminal
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  SPEAKER_00: investigation of Jerome Powell.
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  SPEAKER_00: And one of his ice goons shot a young mother and U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: citizen in the face, killing her.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to talk about those things instead.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear the whole conversation,
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, everyone.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boyler.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Glacius.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Okay,
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  SPEAKER_00: so my take for the week is that despite all the bad news in the news,
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  SPEAKER_00: we're actually just watching the continuation of Donald Trump's,
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
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  SPEAKER_00: you want to call it political,
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  SPEAKER_00: the meltdown slide into irrelevance,
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  SPEAKER_00: whatever,
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  SPEAKER_00: that really began in the last couple months of 2025.
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  And not that he's like doing bad things simply to distract from
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  other bad things,
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  SPEAKER_00: but that he just acts more and more recklessly and destructively and
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  SPEAKER_00: self-destructively when he's desperate to change topics.
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  And so I think that we can see that in both the attempt to
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  harass Jay Powell and in
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  SPEAKER_00: the federal invasion of Minneapolis.
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  SPEAKER_00: So what are your thoughts on that take?
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, there is definitely a...
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  SPEAKER_01: aspect of flailing that is happening here, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: since the shutdown ended,
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  Trump's numbers improved sort of rapidly a little bit from the
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  end of the shutdown
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  SPEAKER_01: and then like re-stabilized in a bad position.
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  SPEAKER_01: And he feasts this defeat in Congress over the Epstein vote.
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  SPEAKER_01: And ever since then –
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  Again,
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  I wouldn't go for the concept of distraction,
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  but he's been trying a lot of stuff.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's been a very frenetic pace of activity along many fronts,
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  SPEAKER_01: a little bit reminiscent of the opening days of the Trump administration,
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  SPEAKER_01: except with less the vibe of –
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  SPEAKER_01: oh my God,
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  SPEAKER_01: he's achieving so much,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  dancing from victory to victory unimpeded and a little bit more
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  the vibe of like,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: come on,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: thrashing around,
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  SPEAKER_01: desperately trying to,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  improve his political standing or Republicans' midterm odds or
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  shake something
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  SPEAKER_01: loose.
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  SPEAKER_01: That being said, like, you know, you know, the nothing ever happens meme?
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  SPEAKER_00: Nothing matters?
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  SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
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  SPEAKER_01: Nothing ever happens.
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know this one.
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  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, it's just like- I got to look this up.
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  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
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  SPEAKER_01: You keep talking.
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  SPEAKER_01: This whole Venezuela operation is like-
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  SPEAKER_01: Initially, it seemed like a refutation of nothing ever happens.
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  Like there was a war with Venezuela and we toppled the regime
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  and kicked Nicolas
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  SPEAKER_01: Maduro out of power.
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  SPEAKER_01: But then it's like the same regime is still in power in Venezuela.
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  SPEAKER_01: And also like nobody's opinion about anything has changed, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like we're like, it's all been very newsworthy.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's been very...
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  SPEAKER_01: consequential,
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  but like there's no macro shifts like this Powell thing
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  happened or like maybe
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  SPEAKER_01: hasn't happened.
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  And maybe there was a backlash and maybe Trump's backing down
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  or maybe he's not backing down.
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  SPEAKER_01: But like.
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  SPEAKER_01: The polling is about where it was, you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: Bill Ackman didn't say,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: I voted for President Trump and I really agree with him about,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: Israel and the importance of defeating socialism,
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  SPEAKER_01: but I don't think we should end the independence of the Federal Reserve,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  SPEAKER_01: It very much feels to me like...
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  SPEAKER_01: You know,
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  SPEAKER_01: like the Trump show is like trying to juice ratings for sweeps week,
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  SPEAKER_01: but like nothing is occurring substantially.
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  Like when the political history of this period is written,
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  it's like nothing actually changed.
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  SPEAKER_01: Nothing really occurred.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: So, well, I mean, put a pin in that final assessment, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Because things are very unstable as a result of the things he's done.
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  SPEAKER_00: And, like, I do think—
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  SPEAKER_00: In both the way that supports your point and contradicts it,
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  SPEAKER_00: some people's opinions have changed.
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  Polling on the question of should we engage militarily with
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  Venezuela was horrible
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  SPEAKER_00: until he did it,
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  SPEAKER_00: at which point it became merely terrible,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know?
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  And that's because something like 30 percent— It realigned with
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  his baseline,
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  right?
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  SPEAKER_01: In advance, it was like—
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  You know,
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  Trump's approval rating is underwater,
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  but there's a lot of people who support Trump.
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  SPEAKER_01: But like even among Trump supporters,
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  SPEAKER_01: like people don't really think we should have a war with Venezuela.
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  He did the war and all the people who like Trump were like,
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  no,
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  this is great.
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  SPEAKER_00: Well, not all.
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  So that's why I think that like your broader take is correct is
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  that even after he
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  kind of brought a chunk of the Republican base back home on the
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  Venezuela issue,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's still only something like 80 percent of Republicans support it.
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  SPEAKER_00: And if like if 80 percent of Republicans supported Donald Trump.
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  SPEAKER_00: he'd be toast, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Like that'd be really bad for him.
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  SPEAKER_00: So it's just like,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not a,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not working as I think he,
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  SPEAKER_00: it depends what he like really intended to get out of this politically.
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  If he,
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  if he was hoping to be back on the front foot the way he was a
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  year ago,
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  SPEAKER_00: it has not worked.
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  If he was hoping to just be on slightly firmer terrain than
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  Epstein and healthcare,
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  SPEAKER_00: that seems like it might be working out.
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  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
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  But it has like the analogy that came to mind as you were
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  talking was speed chess.
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  SPEAKER_00: Um, where I don't know.
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  SPEAKER_00: I know I've asked you if you're a chess player or not,
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  SPEAKER_00: but like if you,
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  if you go to the park and play speed chess against a talented
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  park person,
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  SPEAKER_00: I was going to say,
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't really play chess,
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  but I have been victimized by the legendary chess hustlers of
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  Washington Square.
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  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
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  They're the perfect,
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  like,
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  if you're a so-so chess player like me,
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  they're going to beat you.
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  SPEAKER_00: But they're mostly going to beat you through aggression.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: And they, you know, you can, it's pattern recognition.
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  And you remember a series of moves that tend to,
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  like,
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  leave you in a strong position.
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  And in January and February of 2025,
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  you know,
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  Trump fired the inspectors general.
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  SPEAKER_00: But rather than that being a scandal, he just...
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  used that as covered to do other corrupt things and also to
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  fire a bunch of people
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  SPEAKER_00: because at the same time,
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  he was intimidating the whole legal profession against taking
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  any steps that might
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  create problems for him around having broken the law and things
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  like that.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so just like day by day,
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  it felt like he was gaining ground and like the forces for good
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  were losing ground
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  just the way like a speed chess player will race to put you in
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  a bad position.
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  SPEAKER_00: Now he's continuing to play in that manner,
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  SPEAKER_00: but his moves are bad because he has not really positioned himself well.
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  Like he did not lock down authoritarian control well enough to
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  continue to operate
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  SPEAKER_00: like that in perpetuity.
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  And so rather than having like being able to take an aggressive
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  move because he
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  SPEAKER_00: knows one step ahead,
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  SPEAKER_00: he's got –
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  He's got something cooking that's going to further destabilize
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  his opponent.
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  He's just kind of doing it and realizing that that leaves him
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  in a vulnerable state.
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  SPEAKER_00: Maybe this is a good on-ramp to Powell.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's like...
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know why he did that.
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  Like Powell's term as Fed chair ends in like a month or two
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  months,
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  three months.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like he's on his way out.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: And, and so there was no need to do this.
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  SPEAKER_00: Um,
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  Except either because he's like so angry at Powell that he just
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  wanted to slap him
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  in the face before his term ended or because like the jobs
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  numbers are fucking bad
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  SPEAKER_00: and he's really desperate to get the Fed to do stuff about that.
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  SPEAKER_00: Powell won't do it because the the you know, the tools available to him.
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  And lowering interest rates is not a good idea under these
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  circumstances.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so this move could also just be viewed as like a flail,
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  SPEAKER_00: like you described it,
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  SPEAKER_00: to try to get the Fed to change course quickly because he sees –
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  a year of economic weakness ahead unless he has control of that
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  institution.
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  SPEAKER_00: But like, it didn't work, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Like everyone's like,
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  SPEAKER_00: no,
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  you can't do this because that's going to make like seizing
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  political control.
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  SPEAKER_00: The Fed is actually going to make the economic situation even worse.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't know how else to interpret it.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's like, it's stupid.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: it is stupid and they've kind of,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: counter leaked around it and so on and so forth.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I do.
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  SPEAKER_01: What continues to be,
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  SPEAKER_01: I would say,
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  SPEAKER_01: one of the things that continues to be disturbing to me about the current
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  SPEAKER_01: environment in the United States of America is that,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: if Joe Biden did something deeply unwise on macroeconomic management,
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  SPEAKER_02: people would like—
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  There was this huge dust up on Twitter yesterday about
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  Elizabeth Warren and Reid
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  SPEAKER_01: Hoffman and abundance and blah,
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  SPEAKER_01: blah,
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  SPEAKER_01: blah,
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: blah,
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  SPEAKER_01: blah.
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  SPEAKER_01: And the details aren't important.
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  SPEAKER_01: But Reid Hoffman is a Democrat.
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  SPEAKER_01: He's a major donor to Democrats.
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  SPEAKER_01: He was a big donor to Joe Biden.
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  SPEAKER_01: He was a big donor to Kamala Harris.
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  SPEAKER_01: And also,
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  when the Biden-Harris administration did stuff that he thought
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  was a bad idea,
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  SPEAKER_01: he would say that he thought it was a bad idea.
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  SPEAKER_01: And like none of Trump's prominent supporters do that.
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  SPEAKER_01: And it's like one of the weird paradoxes of the Trump era,
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  because like the people who would tell you that like you have
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  Trump derangement
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  SPEAKER_01: syndrome,
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  if you think that Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist type
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  figure who abuses
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  powers of office routinely to like consolidate control over
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  American society,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: Bill Ackman,
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  SPEAKER_01: Elon Musk,
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  SPEAKER_01: All these people would be like, you're being hysterical.
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  SPEAKER_01: You've got Trump derangement syndrome, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
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  SPEAKER_01: But they all act like that is true.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
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  They all behave as if you can't just agree to disagree with
• 11:49
  President Trump about
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  SPEAKER_01: certain key issues.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I keep sort of hoping that something will happen that—
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  SPEAKER_01: That breaks that mentality,
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  SPEAKER_01: that gets you into something that is like normal politics,
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  SPEAKER_01: where a person with,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: call it a 42 percent approval rating cannot,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: just maintain this lockstep control of his own political movement.
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  And he needs to pay attention to,
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  like,
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  what do other people think he should be doing?
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  SPEAKER_01: And he is retaining that kind of, I think, like, consolidation.
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  SPEAKER_01: Interestingly,
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  SPEAKER_01: it's like at its weakest in Congress,
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  SPEAKER_01: where he not only got rolled on the Epstein stuff,
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  SPEAKER_01: which seemed a little exceptional to me because,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  some like MAGA figures have been really dug in on Epstein
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  before it flipped on
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  SPEAKER_01: Trump,
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  SPEAKER_01: but on the healthcare vote,
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: where like,
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  I don't know like what Republicans position on these health
• 12:49
  care tax credits is now.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like they had this big fight with Democrats.
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  SPEAKER_01: It seemed like Democrats won the battle of public opinion,
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  SPEAKER_01: but Republicans like carried the day on the actual policy.
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  SPEAKER_01: And now they're like turning their tail backwards.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's a little bit confused.
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  A bunch of senators were very,
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  very critical of this move against Jay Powell.
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  SPEAKER_01: But like we don't.
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
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  SPEAKER_00: I just like...
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: I think that there's a way...
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  I think the situation is slightly less dire than that because
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  if you kind of try to
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  sort episodes where people who you think of as more or less
• 13:26
  aligned with Trump are
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  either acting like he's already established full dictatorial
• 13:32
  control versus the
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  SPEAKER_00: places where people stand up to him,
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  I think you can see a little bit of a pattern where it's like
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  to the extent that
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  SPEAKER_00: the person in question...
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  has narrow interests at stake they aren't particularly
• 13:46
  important for the national
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  economy but it does matter as to whether they get to wet their
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  beak right like do
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  do you get to exploit this era of lawlessness to get richer um
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  then then they act
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  like um like a lot is on the line if they defy or contradict
• 14:03
  trump like um
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  I think it was the chairman or CEO of Exxon was in this meeting
• 14:09
  about what to do
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  SPEAKER_00: about Venezuela.
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  SPEAKER_00: And like my read on what he said was like,
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  you're going to have to like really sweeten the deal for me and
• 14:16
  for our company.
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  But what he said was essentially like we were in Venezuela for
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  a long time.
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  SPEAKER_00: Multiple Venezuelan governments seized our capital.
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  Like it's not a safe bet for us as a country under this
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  political leadership.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so like getting us back in there is like a big ask.
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  SPEAKER_00: And in the aftermath of that meeting,
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  SPEAKER_00: Trump told reporters like,
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm thinking about keeping Exxon out.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  And so that's if you're the chairman of Exxon or if you're the
• 14:42
  company Exxon,
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  SPEAKER_00: you've crossed Trump and now there's a price to be paid.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: Whereas if you just flattered him, you might be in the money.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so that's, I think, the Bill Ackman calculus.
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  SPEAKER_00: But when the implications are national and the the the the.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: pain or upside is going to be spread very widely,
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  SPEAKER_00: like with national health care policy,
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  SPEAKER_00: like with monetary policy.
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  SPEAKER_00: Then.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know,
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  SPEAKER_00: people in in Republican politics realize that,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
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  SPEAKER_00: I guess they could just support Trump,
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  but then they're like they're going to piss off people by the
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  millions now.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it could cost them their jobs.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so that's why,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: word leaks,
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  SPEAKER_00: Powell leaks word that this has happened to him,
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  SPEAKER_00: that Trump has tried to stick the Justice Department on him.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Tom Tillis, who's retiring, is like, nope, not on my watch, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Like, I'm just going to block Trump.
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  Whoever you want to replace Powell with until you end this
• 15:40
  investigation.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Lisa Murkowski chimes in and she's like, yeah, Tom Tillis is right.
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  SPEAKER_00: And also,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: if this is how you're going to use the Justice Department,
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  SPEAKER_00: then we're going to investigate the Justice Department.
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  SPEAKER_01: And what a legend.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: And and so and so like.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's not it's just like a heuristic.
• 16:00
  Like if what Trump is trying to do in abusing power is going to
• 16:05
  have far reaching
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: implications that that people will feel in their lives,
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: then he gets pushed back from Congress.
• 16:14
  If he's just trying to,
• 16:15
  you know,
• 16:16
  get rich himself or help his buddies get rich or,
• 16:18
  you know.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: Then kind of like anything goes.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I feel like that's the pattern.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that could be right.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_02: That could be right.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 16:32
  You know,
• 16:33
  it's like you get closer to the breaking point of certain
• 16:42
  things.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like,
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: has the,
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: I was thinking about,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to be doing something next week,
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: on like Trump's first year and like how it went relative to
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: you know, expectations or predictions or whatever that I made.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:01
  Trump is in like a weaker political position than I would have
• 17:06
  thought he would be
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: a year ago.
• 17:11
  But that's because he's behaved like a lot more recklessly than
• 17:16
  I thought he was
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: going to behave.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I feel like in terms of the two lines,
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: it's like he's been way more incautious than I thought he would be,
• 17:30
  like much more kind of loose canady in his actions rather than
• 17:35
  just his statements
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: than he was in his first term.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: He's like actually done a lot of the kind of stuff that in term one,
• 17:41
  it was like he would say he might do in an interview or would
• 17:44
  suggest in a tweet.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: And his political standing has gotten like a little bit weaker.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_01: But I feel like to me, it's like it's not a proportional response.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: You think the public should be much more.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_01: I would have hoped, you know what I mean?
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: That there would be that,
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: whether it's the public or elite consensus or whatever it is,
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_02: that like.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_02: The.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_02: like this fed stuff is like nuclear level misgovernment to me.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: And it's being treated as if it's,
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:30
  screwing around with the inspector generals and the inspector
• 18:33
  generals in any
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: previous time would have been like a major scandal.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: And it was just like a non story.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: George W. Bush literally did fire some U.S.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: attorneys because the U.S.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: attorneys were not agreeing to,
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:52
  do criminal investigations that were cooked up in the West Wing
• 18:55
  of the White House.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: this was an actual thing that happened that was unquestionably,
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: within his constitutional authority.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: But it was like a huge story.
• 19:05
  It was like it was like a multi month story arc with like
• 19:09
  investigations and
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: denials and stuff from the White House.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just been happening all the time,
• 19:14
  such that like even the pushback on the Powell thing is like
• 19:18
  it's bad to compromise
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: the independence of the Fed.
• 19:22
  The fact that the means through which the independence of the
• 19:25
  Fed is being
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: compromised is that the Justice Department,
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_01: or in this case,
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: maybe the Federal Housing Administration,
• 19:32
  is like phoning up bad faith criminal investigations has just
• 19:37
  been accepted as
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: routine because it already happened to James Comey.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like James Comey doesn't have any particular like big picture
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_01: macroeconomic implications.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, it's just like...
• 19:52
  it really struck me over the break how much the frog has been
• 19:57
  boiled here.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: And like, you know, like it is what it is.
• 20:02
  Like I could go on blue sky and do like one of these rants
• 20:05
  where we're like,
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: like everybody should be more upset.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: And like, they should be, but I don't know.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: They are.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: people are as upset as they are,
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: which is somewhat upset,
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: but not that many people and not that upset.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that the boiled frog here is the Trump voter.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: And it's not really boiled frog.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: It's like,
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: maybe this is just like a hopeless optimism,
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: but like when you look at his support,
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: it's like,
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: somewhere between 38 and 42%,
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: depending on the poll.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: And if you look at the breakdown,
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: only like half or so of his supporters claim to support him strongly.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that in the other half,
• 20:50
  There's a lot of softness,
• 20:51
  but there's also like eight years of sunk cost.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: And people are really like,
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:57
  you're asking a lot of somebody to admit that they were wrong
• 20:59
  and that they were
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: they were wrong for eight years,
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: or that,
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: like many of these people voted for Trump after the insurrection,
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: having never voted for him before.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: And now that like they feel stupid about that,
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_00: but can't really admit that they made such a big mistake.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: And so you get this kind of upward pressure on his numbers.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: but the,
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: the,
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: but that the,
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 21:25
  what you would like to see when he does something abusive as he
• 21:29
  did with Jay Powell
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: is some sort of big market reaction or,
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: yeah.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know that that's boiled frog so much as like, what happened?
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: He did this thing before markets even opened.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_00: Republican senators were like, we're putting a stop to it.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: his comments in response were like, meh.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: Markets didn't move, and by the end of yesterday, Janine Pirro, the U.S.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: attorney here, was like, this was all a big misunderstanding.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: We were just trying to have a phone call with him,
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: and he didn't respond,
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: and so we served him grand jury subpoenas or whatever.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: And it's like, this kind of...
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: Keeps happening.
• 22:16
  Like,
• 22:16
  I think that it's going to happen again with tariffs in the
• 22:18
  Supreme Court.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think that,
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 22:20
  it's very likely that Congress will step in to stop him from
• 22:25
  destroying NATO by
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: trying to seize Greenland.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_00: You know, like, he's acting up, but he is...
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: like when you're at the brink,
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: when it's like,
• 22:40
  we're going to fall off the cliff or we're going to pull them
• 22:42
  back so far.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: Like there hasn't been the big, uh, like tumble.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of like taco, but for everything.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:54
  And I'm only talking here about this strata of elite people who
• 22:59
  make big decisions
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: in response to what they see happening in the news.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why, like, I don't know that Boiled Frog is exactly right.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: They just think, like...
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: at the end of the day,
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trump is still mostly just impetuous,
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: but,
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: but his,
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: what happened with James Comey?
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing like his indictment thrown out, the James indictment thrown out.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: And then they tried to get her again.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the grand jury said no a couple of times and on and on down the line,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: like you just,
• 23:28
  you watch him make these big gestures towards consolidating
• 23:33
  authoritarian control.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: And they like more often than not just don't stick.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: And so if, if that's,
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: if that's what you're witnessing happen,
• 23:41
  then you see him do this thing to Jay Powell and you're like
• 23:44
  this fucker again.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: But we know that like,
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: if,
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: if passes prologue,
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: it's not actually going to do anything to intimidate Jay Powell or,
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: or threaten his chairmanship or anything like that.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: So let's breathe easy and see what happens.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: And then sure enough,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_00: by the end of Monday,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_00: it seemed like the whole thing had,
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_00: had kind of run its course.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 24:09
  It's hard to make sense of all this stuff because it's like
• 24:12
  it's it's so much right.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's like it's like.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: Trump was expected to release all the Epstein files,
• 24:18
  so he did this war in Venezuela and then he started threatening
• 24:22
  Greenland.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: Because the war in Venezuela went so well,
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_00: I guess,
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_00: but then people weren't weren't happy about that.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_00: So like he.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: he like did an invasion of Minnesota on pretextual fraud grounds,
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: but then they shot a woman in the face.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: And so now he's onto Jay Powell.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: Like it it's,
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_00: it's maddening,
• 24:44
  but none of it is actually producing the results that it seems
• 24:49
  like he wants like
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: that.
• 24:51
  He wouldn't be taking these actions unless he was hoping for
• 24:54
  some big upside.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: And it's not materializing.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 25:00
  Well,
• 25:01
  checking in on polymarket,
• 25:03
  you know,
• 25:04
  Republican Senate,
• 25:05
  66% chance.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: That's been steady since.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_01: 66% chance of what?
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: The Republicans retained the Senate majority.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, okay.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: That was as high as 75% in late October,
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_01: and it slid a lot right around the mini midterms,
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: but just has been sort of stable since past election day.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: let me ask you,
• 25:33
  what do you think would happen to those odds if Trump just
• 25:35
  continued behaving like
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_00: this for the next 10 months?
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I have no idea.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_01: Okay,
• 25:42
  do you think that he'd be more likely to hold the Senate by
• 25:47
  chilling out a bit or
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: by continuing in this manner?
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think chilling out in some areas.
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I mean, we're going to talk about Minnesota soon, but like—
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: immigration is clearly an area where I think,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: Trump has a winning hand that he could play,
• 26:10
  but he is instead choosing to play a much more aggressive hand
• 26:14
  that is not really
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_01: winning.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 26:19
  And that's sort of – it surprised me a little bit how he has
• 26:25
  conducted himself on
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: immigration policy.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_01: Because in his first term, he talked a lot about immigration.
• 26:31
  He was really big on being tough on the border,
• 26:34
  et cetera,
• 26:34
  et cetera,
• 26:34
  et cetera.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_01: But he shied away from deliberately provocative interior moves.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 26:41
  And I thought that we were going to see more legal steps
• 26:45
  against sanctuary cities,
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: more legislative steps against sanctuary cities,
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera.
• 26:51
  There's a lot of Republican political strength on immigration,
• 26:55
  but he's chosen to –
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: go very,
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: very,
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: very,
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: very far to the point where he's,
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: if nothing else,
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: out of political upside on this kind of thing.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: as is normally the case,
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think just if you pull back to your most defensible terrain,
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_01: you can do better.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_01: But Trump's only ideas are like more.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: so he's like when he's in trouble in some areas,
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_01: he again,
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_01: I don't love the vocabulary of distraction,
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_01: but his idea is to like,
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: like do more other things and change the topic.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_01: And he's good at that, you know, and it's very challenging for a person.
• 27:42
  unfocused opposition to like maintain attention on the topics
• 27:47
  that it wants to
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: maintain attention on.
• 27:50
  Like the official strategy of Democratic Party congressional
• 27:53
  leadership is that
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: they want people talking about affordability in general and healthcare
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: affordability in particular.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: And that like
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: You can see all Republicans are really worried about that.
• 28:06
  They also think it would be good if Democrats could focus
• 28:11
  national attention on
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_01: that healthcare debate,
• 28:13
  and they're running around a little bit like chickens with
• 28:15
  their heads cut off.
• 28:16
  But Trump,
• 28:17
  unlike congressional Republicans,
• 28:18
  is quite good at changing the topic.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: and like actually getting off this.
• 28:24
  And Jeffries and Schumer have like no ability to corral their
• 28:28
  own caucus or the
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: media or the attention of the public,
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_01: like back on the thing that they want to be talking about.
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: They could shut down the government again,
• 28:39
  but they seem to have made a determined decision that winning
• 28:43
  the last shutdown was
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_00: not fun and they don't want to do it again.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, it's not so much them, right?
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: But then it's that the actual like,
• 28:52
  The Senate Fight Club group that called the play has like moved
• 28:59
  on to other things themselves.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I guess because they don't have the support in the House.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_01: that they had previously.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not, I'm not quite sure like what happened there.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: so he said something to the,
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_00: to the New York times that I want to talk about on the other side,
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: but before we,
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_00: before we fully,
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_00: turn the page on the fed,
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_00: I want to ask you like,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: this is sort of a question about like what Democrats should do,
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_00: I guess,
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: but really what I'm thinking is,
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: even if Trump shelves this stupid investigation,
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_00: which it seems like is likely Powell will be out.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_00: Trump will then have,
• 29:38
  tillis's stated concerns murkowski's i guess he's going to
• 29:42
  nominate some hack
• 29:44
  they're probably going to confirm that hack and then he's going
• 29:49
  to start going
• 29:50
  after like if powell chooses to stay on the fed board as a
• 29:52
  governor for another
• 29:53
  couple years he's going to take a run at powell again the
• 29:57
  supreme court's going to
• 29:58
  say you can fire fed people for cause he's going to claim he
• 30:02
  has cause and
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to claim to have fired Powell.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to claim to have fired other Fed board governors.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_00: And over time, he's going to wear some of them down.
• 30:11
  And in three years,
• 30:13
  if Democrats win back power,
• 30:15
  they're going to take over the government.
• 30:19
  But the Fed is going to be both insulated from White House
• 30:25
  meddling and also completely stuffed.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: With Trump loyalists who are going to make,
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 30:33
  anyone with eyes will understand that there is no Fed
• 30:36
  independence anymore.
• 30:37
  And also Democrats will be dealing with the subversive monetary
• 30:41
  policy board that's
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_00: going to try to wreck their economy.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_00: Like, what do you do about that?
• 30:46
  What is the starting today,
• 30:47
  if you want to avoid a scenario like that,
• 30:49
  like what is to be done?
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, probably nothing.
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_01: There's a good, I think it was Peter Conte Brown.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_01: There was like a good paper a while ago,
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_01: like before Trump,
• 31:02
  that was making the argument that Fed independence was like
• 31:05
  actually way less
• 31:07
  institutionally and legally and constitutionally secure than
• 31:10
  people thought.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_01: And it just kind of existed as a question of bipartisan norms and,
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_01: could blow away at any moment.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_01: So it seems like that will probably happen.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm a little...
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: we should say like Jay Powell,
• 31:30
  I think it was not intuitive and obvious that he would like be
• 31:37
  ready to go with
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: like a defiant video to launch on the internet.
• 31:41
  He's like an old guy,
• 31:44
  you know,
• 31:45
  a moderate Republican of the old school George H.W.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_01: Bush Treasury Department kind of establishment.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of people with that kind of –
• 31:56
  resume have been happy to kind of shrink away from,
• 32:01
  you know,
• 32:02
  the public eye.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and you know, Powell struck a defiant stand.
• 32:08
  I don't know how active he was personally in getting things
• 32:12
  like the bipartisan,
• 32:13
  um,
• 32:15
  former Fed chair's and CEA chair's letter on Substack or this
• 32:20
  thing from other
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: central banks around the world,
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_01: etc.,
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_01: etc.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: But like,
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_01: he and his allies have been like trying to win a fight about this,
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_01: even though,
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: as you said,
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_01: like it sort of doesn't matter.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: Powell could easily take the position,
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not guilty of these crimes,
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_01: and also my term as Fed chair is expiring.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: So, like, who cares?
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_00: he surely wants to send a signal to Trump that,
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_00: you can't do this to anyone on the Fed,
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_00: period.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_00: Whoever replaces me,
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: if they do something that you don't approve of,
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_00: you're not going to get anything out of trying to put them under criminal
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_00: investigation.
• 33:05
  Yeah,
• 33:06
  but I mean,
• 33:06
  I just would say like he's acting like a person with
• 33:08
  self-respect.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no, I agree.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_00: Which is not like.
• 33:12
  I don't want to take anything away from him because I'm happy
• 33:15
  to see this and I
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_00: hope it's an inspiration for others.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_00: But I will say in defense of the others or I don't know,
• 33:23
  the chairman of the Federal Reserve is like the one person in
• 33:26
  America that the
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_00: Supreme Court has said.
• 33:30
  We think that you're different,
• 33:31
  special,
• 33:31
  and we might get your back if push comes to shove.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_00: And with that in his mind,
• 33:39
  the stakes of fighting Trump seem lower than anyone else he's
• 33:44
  tried to fire in
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: government,
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_00: the law firm presidents,
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_00: whoever else.
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 33:50
  if you're trying to make governing or business decisions
• 33:52
  knowing how Trump is and
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_00: also knowing that the Supreme Court's likely to side with him,
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: your risk calculus is very different from Jay Powell's.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, I agree with that.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_01: I just, I do also think that there's something, you know,
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_01: of like,
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_01: like an old fashioned wasp aspect to like Powell's conduct here,
• 34:19
  which is just different from how I've seen some other people
• 34:23
  behaving at this,
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: at this juncture of life or this moment in American history.
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_02: Because like,
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_02: You know, he acted like this was outrageous.
• 34:44
  SPEAKER_01: And that made it a bigger story.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_01: Again,
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_01: these various inspectors general who Trump fired,
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_01: like don't have the resources.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: They don't have the legal recourse.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_01: They don't have the global fame and whatever.
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_00: Or the ability to set policy, right?
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_00: That J.K.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_01: Powell has.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_01: But also like they didn't like,
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 35:04
  it has never been easier just logistically for like people to
• 35:08
  get their message
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: out.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_01: these days.
• 35:11
  And like,
• 35:12
  there was no effort by those people to try to mobilize a view
• 35:18
  that like,
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_01: independent inspectors general are important,
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_01: that you can have whatever view you want to have about the constitutional
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_01: metaphysics of the unitary executive,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: but the federal government is this large,
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_01: sprawling enterprise that needs inspectors general to function well in a
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: non-corrupt way,
• 35:38
  that Republicans have always believed that rooting out public
• 35:41
  sector corruption is
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_01: an important and valuable thing.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: Just try to do something.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_01: Not everything that you do works,
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
• 35:50
  but it's like there have been so many instances of people
• 35:56
  genuinely not trying to
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_01: stand up for themselves in a way that is,
• 36:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_01: has been disheartening.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_01: And it feels good to see to see people trying.
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_00: Do you remember Danielle Sassoon?
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the guy's name was Hagen Scotten.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_00: Some sort of very Norse Scandinavian name.
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_00: They were the SDNY.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_01: Hagen Scotten, yeah.
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, assistant U.S.
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_00: attorneys who resigned in the Eric Adams.
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_00: Very early on.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: And I feel like...
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_00: That was like a road not taken because they did the right thing.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_00: They did it in the right way.
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_00: Like Scotton's letter in particular, like still rings around in my head.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_00: They suffered no,
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_00: they lost their immediate jobs,
• 36:49
  but I think they're both eminently hireable people and are
• 36:52
  probably doing fine.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_00: And like,
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
• 36:57
  they didn't have the clout that Powell has and they didn't have
• 37:00
  the job security
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_00: that Powell has.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_00: But,
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_00: that has always been a viable option for a lot of people who,
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_00: just simply chose not to take it.
• 37:10
  And I guess that's ultimately what was so disheartening to me
• 37:14
  about the first six
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_00: to nine months of Trump's second term.
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_00: But the way things are going now is that,
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 37:23
  it seems like we're going to get more Danielle Sassoons and
• 37:27
  Hagan Scottons.
• 37:27
  Like,
• 37:28
  if Trump really did try to make a move against Greenland,
• 37:30
  like,
• 37:30
  what...
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_00: How do you think that the military officer corps would react?
• 37:36
  How do you think Congress – it would not be like the situation
• 37:40
  in February of 2025.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_01: Probably.
• 37:42
  But even – I don't want to be too critical of Sassoon in
• 37:48
  particular who is like as
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_01: far as I know like a conservative Republican and always has been.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_01: But like just a small thing is for example like she resigned.
• 38:04
  you know,
• 38:04
  when she was getting these orders rather than refusing to carry
• 38:09
  them out.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_01: If you know what I mean.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_01: And like getting fired,
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_01: and then she went and when she,
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: she,
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: she did her letter,
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_01: but like,
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_01: then she got some gig at the Manhattan Institute,
• 38:28
  SPEAKER_01: which is like,
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of smart people working at the Manhattan Institute,
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_01: perceptive people who have some reasonable ideas about various things.
• 38:41
  But the whole public presentation of the Manhattan Institute
• 38:44
  about everything is
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_01: like relentlessly pro-Trump,
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_01: even though like clearly like along the sidelines,
• 38:50
  they're like trying to provide a little bit of a safe harbor of
• 38:55
  sanity and things
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_01: like that.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: But that just...
• 38:58
  SPEAKER_01: reinscribes the idea that like, this is all politics as usual.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_01: When like,
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_01: it's not,
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 39:07
  to like interfere in a public sector corruption case against a
• 39:14
  Democrat for a
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: Republican administration.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: That's really weird, right?
• 39:20
  To do that because you're hoping to gain his cooperation on
• 39:23
  something unturned.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_01: The funniest one of all of these was Henry Cuellar.
• 39:28
  who seems like he made a deal with Trump to get the charges
• 39:31
  against him dropped in
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_01: exchange for switching parties and then didn't switch parties.
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_01: And now, because of double jeopardy, Trump can't go after him.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_01: And good for you, Representative Cuellar.
• 39:43
  SPEAKER_01: You're my greatest hero here.
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't know.
• 39:47
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's like... It's hard to know what to say.
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_01: I want to say this in the spirit of somebody who is often...
• 39:56
  asking for more restraint from diehard Trump opponents is that
• 40:01
  the flip side is
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: that like,
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_01: if Trump does things that you think are bad,
• 40:07
  SPEAKER_01: like you have to say that you have to people,
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_01: people don't have some means of finding out that,
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 40:17
  bad things are happening that are different from baseline
• 40:21
  background partisanship
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_01: unless people say that to them,
• 40:25
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_01: forcefully and vigorously in modern communications technologies.
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_01: And, like, that's what Powell did here.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: Was he, like, gave the best shot that...
• 40:37
  a 72-year-old central banker could possibly give for like how
• 40:42
  to make people think
• 40:44
  that this was something other than a kind of another day in the
• 40:48
  life of partisan
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_01: politics in Washington,
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_01: D.C.
• 40:52
  It honestly doesn't move the needle that much because people
• 40:55
  are very baked in to what they are.
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_01: But like he's clearly trying and like it has created a different outcome.
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 41:02
  and maybe he'll inspire whoever to say what's really going on
• 41:06
  with the Epstein
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_00: Files cover-up.
• 41:07
  It's hard to know what to say about all this stuff because
• 41:09
  every situation,
• 41:11
  everyone can rationalize themselves and tell them that it's
• 41:13
  different than the
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: people who came before them or who will come after.
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_00: I will say,
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_00: though,
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_00: that in your description of the Manhattan Institute,
• 41:21
  that it reminds me that I had the correct read on Raihan Salam
• 41:25
  when he was floating
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_00: around Washington,
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_00: D.C.
• 41:27
  SPEAKER_00: 20 years ago, and many people in our line of work did not.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 41:33
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_00: Good for you.
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_00: We'll like deal with old beefs another time.
• 41:39
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• 41:42
  SPEAKER_00: Minneapolis,
• 41:43
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• 41:47
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