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What Angus Taylor's immigration plan would really mean · The Morning Edition

• 0:04
  S1: With the Liberal Party in a political death spiral. It
• 0:08
  S1: was perhaps inevitable that when Opposition leader Angus Taylor gave
• 0:12
  S1: his budget reply speech last week, he'd swing for the fences.
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  S1: But would his much awaited immigration policy help fix our
• 0:20
  S1: housing crisis by cutting down on immigration numbers? I'm Samantha
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  S1: Salinger Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition from The
• 0:29
  S1: Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, chief political commentator
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  S1: James Massola on what Angus Taylor means when he says
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  S1: his policy puts Australians first. It's May the 19th. James,
• 0:45
  S1: welcome back to the podcast.
• 0:47
  S2: Good to be with you, Sam.
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  S1: Okay, so opposition leader Angus Taylor, he gave a big
• 0:51
  S1: speech in Parliament last week. And it was, of course,
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  S1: his response to the federal government's budget and immigration was
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  S1: Taylor's focus. So what exactly has he proposed?
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  S2: So it's a pretty far reaching plan that Angus Taylor
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  S2: put on the table. Sam, basically, he wants to see
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  S2: immigration levels cut by up to or around about 70%.
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  S2: He was a bit non-specific, about 70% against which year?
• 1:16
  S2: But it looks like he's sort of talking. I think
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  S2: it was 21, 22 or 2223 when, you know, those
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  S2: early days when we started to open up again after Covid.
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  S2: So you're talking about sort of half a million people
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  S2: had come in that year. So 70% against that, I think.
• 1:31
  S2: I mean, in fact, I think Angus Taylor said on
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  S2: Sunday that prospectively would get Australia down below 200 000
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  S2: immigrants sort of coming permanent immigrants rather coming per year.
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  S1: And so he's actually promised that the coalition will deliver
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  S1: what he's called one of the biggest cuts to immigration
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  S1: in Australian history, and he's tying it to the number
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  S1: of housing completions. So he said he would link the
• 1:52
  S1: net overseas migration with the number of housing completions. So
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  S1: can you just briefly run us through what net overseas
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  S1: migration is and what this means to tie it to
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  S1: the number of housing completions in any given year.
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  S2: Yeah. Net overseas migration or the Nom is budget nerds call.
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  S2: It basically means the number of people moving to Australia permanently,
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  S2: minus the number of people leaving Australia permanently in any
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  S2: given year. Now, you know, there are sort of specific
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  S2: definitions around, you know, what constitutes permanently leaving. And obviously
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  S2: people can still come back if they're citizens and what
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  S2: have you. But that's that's in in a nutshell, tying
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  S2: that number to housing is a new thing. It's something
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  S2: that's been spoken about before. No politicians actually done it before.
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  S2: And he's done that for a really specific reason. As
• 2:38
  S2: you know, as we all know, housing is one of
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  S2: the most keenly felt aspects of the cost of living
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  S2: sort of crisis, if you like, that we're living through
• 2:48
  S2: at the moment in terms of high fuel and rising
• 2:50
  S2: food prices. So why has he linked this to net
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  S2: overseas migration? Well, there's a simple reason we need to
• 2:56
  S2: be building more houses here. And he is. Angus Taylor,
• 3:00
  S2: the opposition leader Seeking to capitalize on that discontent over
• 3:05
  S2: housing that's out there in Australia, particularly in our major
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  S2: cities like Sydney and Melbourne, about things cost too much.
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  S2: It's too hard to get a rental. It's too hard
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  S2: to get onto the property market. When I go and
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  S2: inspect a place, there's 30 people in line, you know,
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  S2: that I'm competing with to buy or to rent or
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  S2: whatever it might be. So the idea is to say, well,
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  S2: if we hold back some of these people from moving,
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  S2: take fewer migrants, maybe in theory, there'll be more houses
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  S2: available for the people that are already living here. So
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  S2: it's very much a sort of a populist play that
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  S2: he's making.
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  S1: And to be really simplistic about it. So essentially, we're
• 3:39
  S1: the coalition to gain power, which is a big if
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  S1: at this point, and we'll get that to them a
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  S1: bit later. The policy would be what. That for every
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  S1: yearly intake of Australian migrants, like for every additional migrant
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  S1: that comes in, there'd have to be a new home built.
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  S2: Yeah, essentially, it's as simple as that. It's a new
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  S2: house per migrant being completed, being constructed and completed. Otherwise,
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  S2: you don't get to come in.
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  S1: Okay, but it wasn't just housing that he was focusing
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  S1: on because he's also proposing a change to the welfare system, essentially.
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  S1: So what has he proposed there?
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  S2: So I think what Angus Taylor is doing here, Sam
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  S2: is tapping on the same, I guess, kind of populist
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  S2: impulse that he's tapping on or pressing on with the
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  S2: housing promise. So what Angus Taylor has said is that
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  S2: if you're a permanent resident and we've got, I think
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  S2: from memory, it's around four and a half, 5 million
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  S2: permanent residents in Australia. If you're a permanent resident in
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  S2: this country, not a citizen, you no longer would have access,
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  S2: you would no longer have access to. I think it's
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  S2: 17 different social welfare and benefits programs. So think of
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  S2: things like the NDIS. Think of, I guess, um, you know,
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  S2: unemployment benefits, things like that. Medicare would not be included
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  S2: in this, but it's essentially what he's saying is these
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  S2: programs are for real Australians who are actually signed up,
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  S2: you know, sworn in citizens of the country. If people
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  S2: want to have the benefit of living here and the
• 5:03
  S2: literal benefits offered by the government, then they have to
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  S2: get on board and actually take out citizenship. Um, now,
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  S2: in theory that in theory that sounds, I guess maybe
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  S2: reasonably sensible, but it also, I think doesn't really reflect
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  S2: what people do in, you know, today's world in, you know,
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  S2: in the modern age. Lots of people have dual citizenships.
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  S2: Lots of people in this country come from countries where
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  S2: you can't actually get rid of your citizenship. And I'm
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  S2: thinking of China, for example, and I believe perhaps India
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  S2: as well. Well, you can't actually say I'm no longer
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  S2: a citizen of India or a citizen of China, and
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  S2: I am taking up just Australian citizenship. It's not that simple.
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  S2: You know, people want to sort of retain the option
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  S2: of being able to go back to the country of
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  S2: their birth. Maybe they have parents there, things like that.
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  S2: So essentially, you know, prospectively what would happen is that
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  S2: you'd be creating a really a two tiered system for people. uh,
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  S2: regardless of whether they, you know, pay their taxes, you know,
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  S2: pay off their HECS, go to university here, have kids here,
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  S2: what have you. If you're a permanent resident prospectively, this
• 6:14
  S2: is grandfathered. You would miss out in the future.
• 6:17
  S1: Okay. I've definitely got questions about that. But first off,
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  S1: what a brass tacks question for you, which is are
• 6:22
  S1: our current immigration levels sustainable or are they unsustainable? Like,
• 6:27
  S1: what's the argument for the numbers dropping significantly? Because we
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  S1: know that Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke just said on
• 6:33
  S1: Friday that, yes, the migration numbers had been too high
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  S1: in recent years and they peaked under immigration settings of
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  S1: the previous government. And of course, we know the numbers
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  S1: really did grow. You know, a lot, of course, with
• 6:45
  S1: Covid and the border closures and stuff, but that labor
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  S1: had been taking action to bring those numbers down to
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  S1: sustainable levels. So are they at sustainable levels, or is
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  S1: there really an argument here that, yes, the numbers of
• 6:55
  S1: immigrants do need to drop?
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  S2: Look, I'm not a demographer, Sam. I wouldn't venture a
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  S2: guess what the magic number is for sustainable immigration. As
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  S2: we touched on a moment, you know, post Covid borders opening,
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  S2: there was pent up demand. We touched, you know, close
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  S2: to half a million people, uh, sort of flooding into
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  S2: the country, if you like. You know, people who are
• 7:18
  S2: coming back to university degrees or be reunited with loved
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  S2: ones or, you know, you know, various reasons. It's been on,
• 7:26
  S2: you know, the immigration levels. It's been on a very
• 7:28
  S2: much a downwards trajectory since then. I think it was
• 7:32
  S2: projected to be 290, 000 in the current financial year.
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  S2: We've gone a little bit past that. It's about it's
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  S2: going to be about 310, 320. So not a massive
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  S2: amount past. And the trajectory according to the budget papers
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  S2: is still heading down. I think it's around about 260
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  S2: 000 people next year. And it's projected to be, I think,
• 7:52
  S2: maybe 240 000 the year after. The long term average
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  S2: has been a touch over 200 000. And that's going
• 8:00
  S2: back at least a couple of decades. So you might
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  S2: venture a guess that's a sustainable level, but then it's
• 8:06
  S2: there's actually more wrinkles and more complications to this than
• 8:09
  S2: just that. I mean, let's say, for example, with the
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  S2: federal government's target of building 1.2 million homes over five years, um,
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  S2: a good example, given, you know, what Angus Taylor has promised,
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  S2: how do we build those homes? Do we have enough
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  S2: workers to build those homes? Do we have the expertise
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  S2: to build those homes? I mean, yes, of course we
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  S2: do on a on a house by house basis. But no,
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  S2: we don't have enough workers. So there's something like 8000
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  S2: qualified builders and carpenters and what have you in this country.
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  S2: We need way more than that. Senate inquiry is looking
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  S2: at this at the moment. We need way more than
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  S2: that to get to that 1.2 million target. So on
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  S2: the one hand, yes, I get the sort of the
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  S2: proposal to say, well, let's slow it down. Let's bring
• 8:52
  S2: people in when we get houses built, but we also
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  S2: need people coming in to build those houses. And that's
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  S2: the catch 22 that we're in at the moment.
• 9:06
  S1: After the break.
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  S2: Just about everyone knows someone who's got a parent or
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  S2: grandparent born overseas. And if you're saying to that cohort, oh,
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  S2: you don't get as many rights, even if you're paying taxes,
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  S2: you're going to miss out because you're not a citizen.
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  S2: You risk alienating entire families and entire communities.
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  S1: Okay. And I wanted to ask you a follow up
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  S1: question about what you mentioned beforehand, which is that it
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  S1: would be this two tier system essentially. Right? So non-residents
• 9:41
  S1: just not getting access to all kinds of welfare programs.
• 9:44
  S1: Because I wanted to ask you whether this coalition policy proposal,
• 9:47
  S1: is it just a dog whistle to One Nation voters,
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  S1: or does it have merit? Because we know that some
• 9:52
  S1: of the language that Angus Taylor has used sort of,
• 9:54
  S1: I guess, echoes the One Nation message. You know, he
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  S1: said that, you know, this this will be an immigration
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  S1: policy that puts Australians first, which I think has shades
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  S1: of that sort of One Nation flavor, right? Like who's
• 10:06
  S1: Australian and who isn't. And it's so yeah, is this
• 10:09
  S1: just a dog whistle to One Nation voters to bring
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  S1: them back into the liberal fold?
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  S2: I look I think it's too simplistic to say this
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  S2: is just a dog whistle. I think it's absolutely fair
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  S2: to have a debate. It's legitimate to have a debate
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  S2: about what the right number is, what sort of skills
• 10:26
  S2: we need coming in here. You know, do we need
• 10:28
  S2: builders or do we need lawyers or do we need
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  S2: hairdressers or, you know, whatever it might be? Clearly we
• 10:33
  S2: need more builders. So I get that that's, uh, you know,
• 10:37
  S2: that the system sort of perhaps needs some adjusting in
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  S2: terms of what skills and what classes of visa and
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  S2: what types of people or types of people with certain
• 10:45
  S2: sets of skills get their visa. But the way and
• 10:49
  S2: this goes to your point, Sam, the way this is
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  S2: being presented by Angus Taylor is very much about reaching
• 10:55
  S2: out to that one nation base. Now, he's not sort of,
• 10:59
  S2: you know, he's not gone anywhere near as far as
• 11:02
  S2: one nation wants to go. He's pushing into that space
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  S2: a little bit. He's moving towards them a little bit,
• 11:08
  S2: but it's very much in terms of the I won't
• 11:13
  S2: say inflammatory, but the rhetoric is, is is heightened, I
• 11:16
  S2: guess you'd say.
• 11:17
  S1: It's loaded isn't.
• 11:18
  S2: It? And it's very deliberate. Yeah. Loaded. And I think
• 11:20
  S2: that's very deliberate. You know, they they coalition face an
• 11:23
  S2: existential crisis on their right. In the most recent resolve,
• 11:27
  S2: One Nation is outpolling the coalition 24 primary vote, 24%
• 11:33
  S2: versus 23%. Like that's that's that's a clear and present
• 11:37
  S2: danger to the future of the Liberal Party. So, yes,
• 11:39
  S2: he's trying to get those voters attention and he's trying
• 11:43
  S2: to bring them back.
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  S1: Okay. So trying to recover from what many see as
• 11:46
  S1: an existential position for the Liberal Party and the coalition.
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  S1: But is this particular policy proposal of Angus Taylor's political suicide?
• 11:54
  S1: Because we know that about 4.5 to 5 million people
• 11:58
  S1: in Australia are non-citizens. That's 1 in 6 residents. Right.
• 12:01
  S1: And we had pollster Morris Wright just over the weekend
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  S1: that that means that there's huge amount of voters in
• 12:07
  S1: Australia who won't be affected by this policy. They're citizens,
• 12:10
  S1: but they'll be living with parents or grandparents who are
• 12:12
  S1: not citizens. And they might be repelled by this policy
• 12:16
  S1: that essentially looks at their non-citizen parents and grandparents as
• 12:19
  S1: second class citizens. Like, is this political suicide?
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  S2: It does carry a significant risks for Angus Taylor. I mean,
• 12:27
  S2: you know, I think of my grandmother, right? She didn't,
• 12:30
  S2: you know, become a naturalized Australian until way like decades
• 12:33
  S2: after she moved over from Italy. You know, I think of,
• 12:36
  S2: you know, our neighbours across the road, whose parents are
• 12:38
  S2: regularly back and forth visiting from India and have lived
• 12:41
  S2: here for periods of time, lived over there for periods
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  S2: of time. Everyone knows someone who's got a parent, or
• 12:47
  S2: just about everyone knows someone who's got a parent or
• 12:48
  S2: a grandparent born overseas. And if you're saying to that
• 12:52
  S2: cohort and it is a very big cohort, as we've
• 12:55
  S2: just touched on, you don't get as many rights even
• 12:58
  S2: if you're paying taxes, even if you're doing this, even
• 13:01
  S2: if you've been here on and off for 30 years
• 13:02
  S2: or 20 years, whatever it might be, you're going to
• 13:04
  S2: miss out because you're not a citizen. That's you know
• 13:08
  S2: that does as cos wrote place at risk. Um it's
• 13:13
  S2: significant risk the votes of the kids who still live
• 13:16
  S2: here and who are citizens and who can vote or
• 13:18
  S2: the parents or the, you know, whichever sort of section
• 13:21
  S2: or cohort or whatever of, of that particular family, you
• 13:24
  S2: risk alienating entire families and entire communities. And you talk
• 13:28
  S2: about the sort of immigrant levels in this country. I'd
• 13:31
  S2: love to come back. I have to come back to Menzies,
• 13:34
  S2: the Victorian seat, you know, literally named after the founder
• 13:37
  S2: of the Liberal Party, failed to labor for the first
• 13:39
  S2: time last election. Keith Wolahan, a liberal moderate who you know,
• 13:43
  S2: the guy who lost his seat, wrote a great essay
• 13:45
  S2: a few months ago about some of the challenges facing
• 13:48
  S2: the party and a point that he made in that piece,
• 13:50
  S2: which just leapt out of me. 70% of residents of
• 13:54
  S2: Menzies are either born overseas or have a parent born overseas.
• 14:00
  S2: Like it's higher than the average, you know, the Australian
• 14:03
  S2: sort of national average, and most of them are from
• 14:06
  S2: mainland China. Or, you know, their mum or dad might
• 14:08
  S2: be from mainland China or their grandma. How the heck
• 14:11
  S2: are they going to win back? And it's not even
• 14:13
  S2: in a city, you know, middle ring, suburban seat like
• 14:16
  S2: that when they're alienating or potentially alienating, I should say.
• 14:21
  S2: So many of the people who live in that seat.
• 14:24
  S1: Yeah. And I do wonder how immigrant communities have responded.
• 14:28
  S1: I know that our colleague Nick Newling, he interviewed a
• 14:31
  S1: man named Amar Singh. He's the founder of a charity
• 14:34
  S1: called turbans for turbans, who said it was, quote, shameful
• 14:37
  S1: that Taylor was targeting people who were on valid visas,
• 14:40
  S1: who were paying taxes but are, you know, not, quote,
• 14:42
  S1: being treated as human beings. And so I've got a
• 14:45
  S1: bit of an ethical question for you, James Massola, which is,
• 14:48
  S1: is it ethical to take social welfare benefits away from
• 14:52
  S1: residents who pay taxes but aren't citizens? I mean, we
• 14:55
  S1: know that Deputy Liberal Leader Jane Hume has said that
• 14:58
  S1: the policy of barring non-citizens from social welfare programs would
• 15:01
  S1: not apply to Medicare. But of course, there's all kinds
• 15:04
  S1: of other welfare programs. I think you said there's 17
• 15:06
  S1: and they include the NDIS and the old aged care
• 15:09
  S1: pension and all kinds of benefits. Is that unethical?
• 15:13
  S2: I think it is. I mean, just for argument's sake,
• 15:16
  S2: let's say I sort of moved over here from India
• 15:19
  S2: to study, you know, a master's in engineering when I
• 15:22
  S2: was 23 years old, I did my 2 or 3
• 15:25
  S2: year masters. I stayed on, um, I got a job.
• 15:30
  S2: I'd been here ten years working, paying my taxes. You know,
• 15:33
  S2: I made a nice lady. We have a kid, the kids, um,
• 15:37
  S2: you know, got autism, um, you know, something like that. Uh,
• 15:40
  S2: in fact, that's probably a bad example because of the
• 15:42
  S2: changes being made to the NDIS. But you know what
• 15:44
  S2: I mean? I do and then I'm suddenly told that, well,
• 15:47
  S2: you know, your son or daughter can't access that program
• 15:50
  S2: because you're a permanent resident. They're not a citizen yet.
• 15:53
  S2: You know, you haven't gone through that process like it
• 15:55
  S2: just yeah, I think it's deeply problematic. Sam. Yeah, yeah. And,
• 16:00
  S2: you know, potentially even open up to a court challenge.
• 16:03
  S1: Yeah, I was wondering that as well. But finally, should
• 16:05
  S1: we even be taking this proposal from Angus Taylor seriously?
• 16:09
  S1: Because it's got to be said, like the coalition's chances
• 16:12
  S1: of forming government any time soon seem ridiculously slim, right?
• 16:16
  S2: Yeah, I think that's probably right, but not definitely right, Sam.
• 16:22
  S2: I mean, I think we do have to take it
• 16:23
  S2: seriously because the Liberal Party or the coalition is still
• 16:28
  S2: the prospective or, you know, um, most likely alternative government
• 16:32
  S2: of this country. So in that sense, of course, you
• 16:34
  S2: have to take it seriously. So the second point I'd make, Sam,
• 16:38
  S2: is that in terms of the coalition, you know, they
• 16:41
  S2: don't look like they're anywhere near being able to form government.
• 16:43
  S2: Anthony Albanese has 94 seats, all of that. That's all true.
• 16:46
  S2: I think we also live in an age where, um,
• 16:49
  S2: big swings against incumbent governments are happening more and more regularly.
• 16:53
  S2: I think that Anthony Albanese, as wonderful as he is, um,
• 16:58
  S2: you know, and amazing as his 94 seats were, I
• 17:01
  S2: actually don't think that's a deep majority in the sense
• 17:03
  S2: that Part of what propelled him to such a big
• 17:07
  S2: win was people being turned off by Peter Dutton, rather
• 17:10
  S2: than people being compelled to vote for Anthony Albanese because
• 17:14
  S2: he had such an amazing policy program, and I'm not
• 17:17
  S2: seeking to make a partisan, you know, whack at him
• 17:20
  S2: or anyone really. But I think.
• 17:22
  S1: Yeah.
• 17:23
  S2: His majority is not as deep as it necessarily looks.
• 17:26
  S2: And the potential, particularly now with the rise of Hanson
• 17:29
  S2: for a big swing or even a small swing, taking
• 17:32
  S2: a big chunk of seats away from him is there.
• 17:35
  S2: So yeah, I think you absolutely have to take this seriously.
• 17:40
  S1: Well, it's a very interesting space. So thank you so much, James,
• 17:43
  S1: for coming back on.
• 17:44
  S2: Always a pleasure, Sam. Thank you.
• 17:52
  S1: In other news, today, dozens of university residential colleges have
• 17:56
  S1: recorded a sharp drop in sexual harassment, bullying and discrimination
• 18:01
  S1: after overhauling the way students report bad behaviour. A top
• 18:06
  S1: cop in New South Wales has said the drug dog
• 18:09
  S1: days at musical festivals are over as police shift their
• 18:13
  S1: focus to targeting train stations, parks and more secluded locations
• 18:18
  S1: where they suspect people are selling drugs to festival goers.
• 18:22
  S1: And most of Australia's leading men's tennis players, including Alex
• 18:26
  S1: de Minaur, have united to endorse Sam Groth for a
• 18:30
  S1: senior leadership position at Tennis Australia, as the search for
• 18:33
  S1: Craig Tiley successor nears its end. You can read more
• 18:37
  S1: at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by
• 18:46
  S1: Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our
• 18:50
  S1: podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If
• 18:54
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• 18:57
  S1: a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.