Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 9

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 9 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Value Podcast Network.
1:24
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:29
Speaker 1: I am joined as I am every episode by my bff,
1:33
Speaker 1: my companion, Mike Padre professional Better, Simon Hunter, Simon, you
1:40
Speaker 1: and I. It's crazy. What's going on right now? We've
1:43
Speaker 1: got a crazy twenty four hours. Right now, you're in
1:47
Speaker 1: one room in a hotel in Lexington, Kentucky. I am
1:50
Speaker 1: across the hall. Matt Mitchell is between us because we
1:54
Speaker 1: have our live show tomorrow at Keenland at one pm
1:57
Speaker 1: Radio Row one pm e Stern for day. We encourage
2:01
Speaker 1: everybody to come by Radio Road check it out. Last night,
2:03
Speaker 1: you were in Philly for the World Series. I was
2:05
Speaker 1: in New York City for the opening night of Bono's
2:08
Speaker 1: short promotional tour for his book. He's doing some concerts
2:12
Speaker 1: like ten around the country. Last night was the first one.
2:15
Speaker 1: We had a crazy night, crazy night for both. You
2:17
Speaker 1: saw history, I saw history. You go first. I will
2:20
Speaker 1: say Bono peaked after Sunday, Bloody Sunday. It's been downhill
2:24
Speaker 1: every since. We both had great nights. Why do you
2:28
Speaker 1: have to make it? I did not. How dare you
2:30
Speaker 1: saying great? So I don't know if Chad believes in
2:34
Speaker 1: heaven or hell. I don't really know if I believe
2:36
Speaker 1: in it either, but I do believe if you Appella
2:39
Speaker 1: is real, it's a moment in your life in repeat mode.
2:42
Speaker 1: And I might have had my last night seeing your
2:44
Speaker 1: baseball team be no hit. It's the most slow, painful death.
2:49
Speaker 1: And the fact that it's the World Series. I joke
2:51
Speaker 1: with Chad. The vibes going in were so good again Philadelphia.
2:55
Speaker 1: If you're a fan of the team, friendliest nicest people
2:58
Speaker 1: in the entire world. If you're not, they're the meanest
3:00
Speaker 1: people in the entire world. So the tailgate was amazing,
3:03
Speaker 1: chat going to the ballpark was amazing, just walking around
3:07
Speaker 1: and just sucking in the atmosphere. I'm sticking it all in. Um,
3:11
Speaker 1: it was incredible. But by the third fourth inning, you
3:14
Speaker 1: can just feel it right, you know it is in
3:16
Speaker 1: the stadium. You can just start feeling things, and that
3:18
Speaker 1: zero just kept getting bigger and bigger underneath the hit
3:22
Speaker 1: marker on the big scoreboards. So, um, it was cool.
3:26
Speaker 1: Scene history. Right, I'll admit to that, like, that's cool.
3:29
Speaker 1: But as a fan, it was horrible because you're just
3:32
Speaker 1: waiting and waiting and waiting for the hits to come.
3:35
Speaker 1: I never did so again. Fun night, but that that's
3:39
Speaker 1: that's one of those I wish. I wish it could
3:41
Speaker 1: have been the game before, right, we have five on runs,
3:43
Speaker 1: not the game we had zero. Yeah, it was a bummer.
3:46
Speaker 1: I felt bad. I felt bad for you know when
3:48
Speaker 1: you were there. I would to see Bono. Bono has
3:51
Speaker 1: a new book coming out came out this week called Surrender,
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Speaker 1: and he was doing He's doing these ten sort of
3:58
Speaker 1: very intimate gigs around the tree. The first one was
4:01
Speaker 1: last night at the Beacon Theater in Manhattan, which is
4:04
Speaker 1: about a block from where I lived when I lived
4:07
Speaker 1: in the city for many years. It was insane. Uh.
4:11
Speaker 1: We got there five rows behind me, Bill Clinton, Tom Hanks,
4:16
Speaker 1: and it was so interesting. Bill Clinton comes in when
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Speaker 1: the lights in the house are still on, crowds are
4:21
Speaker 1: still forming, and like everyone sees him and starts cheering.
4:25
Speaker 1: Tom Hanks comes in, lights are off like he's coming
4:28
Speaker 1: in last second before Banno comes on. Doesn't want to
4:31
Speaker 1: make a fuss doesn't want to create too much chaos.
4:35
Speaker 1: I don't know. My big knock will always be how
4:38
Speaker 1: we not figured out stadium traffic at the end of
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Speaker 1: games is beyond me. I mean humans, We've done the
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Speaker 1: most amazing things in the world, but the anting of
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Speaker 1: a stadium and people get into cars, they just haven't
4:50
Speaker 1: figured out yet. So that's the worst part to me. Like,
4:52
Speaker 1: when you lose, it's all nice, right, people wave you out.
4:55
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, go in front of me, go ahead, let's go.
4:58
Speaker 1: Everyone can get out of here. Let's it's all team work.
5:00
Speaker 1: After a low loss, everyone's giving each other the finger.
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Speaker 1: No one's let anyone out of the parking lot. So yeah,
5:06
Speaker 1: the game ended. I don't even know, pretty quick game
5:07
Speaker 1: right because there was no hitter, but didn't end until
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Speaker 1: I don't know eleven thirty. Didn't get home until one
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Speaker 1: thirty two, and then woke up at seven, get on
5:16
Speaker 1: the airplane, and now I'm in Kentucky with yet guy.
5:20
Speaker 1: I was like a sleep at two and got up
5:22
Speaker 1: at five. Geez, all right, we're ready to go back. Um. Yeah,
5:29
Speaker 1: so that's this is our lives people listening on AMP. Yeah,
5:32
Speaker 1: it was. It was. It was a crazy fund twenty
5:34
Speaker 1: four hours. Now we're in Lexington. But we have more
5:37
Speaker 1: important things to do and talk about Lexington than talk
5:40
Speaker 1: about and talk about we do. We gotta give people,
5:45
Speaker 1: uh our phase five. We gotta give people a big
5:49
Speaker 1: balls bet of the week. We're gonna get some sharp
5:51
Speaker 1: calls in a second. Uh. First things. First reminder of Foxhole.
5:56
Speaker 1: We said Bengals minus seven. All the lines that we
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Speaker 1: liked on recorded on Tuesday are now moving in the
6:03
Speaker 1: direction we said they would. We like Bengals at seven,
6:05
Speaker 1: it's at seven and a half. Simon says, with Washington
6:08
Speaker 1: three and a half. Washington in the last twenty four
6:11
Speaker 1: hours has moved to three. We liked exact Decision Bears
6:14
Speaker 1: plus five. This morning Bears moved to four and a half. So, um,
6:19
Speaker 1: you know more reason why people gotta listen up and
6:21
Speaker 1: make the moves when they hear the podcast, because lines
6:24
Speaker 1: are moving before we get to the rest of our picks. Simon,
6:29
Speaker 1: what do we say about sharp calls? Hello, who's there?
6:36
Speaker 1: I'm talking rate telephone right? Said maybe yeah, And I
6:45
Speaker 1: think Chad has nailed it right there talking about the
6:47
Speaker 1: line movement. That's what a couple of the calls I
6:49
Speaker 1: got were about this week. The big one I knew
6:52
Speaker 1: going into it. The press gall over it was Washington.
6:55
Speaker 1: I think everyone's just like us. Yeah, they're looking at
6:57
Speaker 1: a Washington team that they just have a different mode
7:00
Speaker 1: a going right now against the Vikings team that we
7:02
Speaker 1: all think is a little inflated, like six and one.
7:05
Speaker 1: That's crazy. It's just crazy. They've been playing that well
7:08
Speaker 1: and they've been doing They've had a couple of spots
7:10
Speaker 1: where they've been due for a letdown. They keep getting
7:11
Speaker 1: out of it. And again I'm looking at the luck rankings,
7:14
Speaker 1: I just see see them being high up there in
7:16
Speaker 1: the luft brankings this week. So no surprise these amount
7:20
Speaker 1: of calls the other side, the pros are on that
7:23
Speaker 1: me and Chad weren't on, and I think I'm gonna
7:25
Speaker 1: stay stay put. I can't get talked off my position
7:28
Speaker 1: the Jets. I heard a really smart group came in
7:32
Speaker 1: heavy on the Jets. Sure enough. Wake up this morning
7:34
Speaker 1: after the Phillies game, open up the action app, and
7:37
Speaker 1: what do I see? Eleven? It's it's down to eleven
7:40
Speaker 1: and a half. So clearly someone came and hit it
7:43
Speaker 1: and bounced back up. I think got a couple of
7:45
Speaker 1: books to twelve. But I might be overlooking this Jets team,
7:49
Speaker 1: but I just I just can't. I can't do it again.
7:53
Speaker 1: I get it, divisional home dog. I should be all
7:55
Speaker 1: over this Jets team. I still think the Bills are
7:57
Speaker 1: the right side. So if you, if you do want
8:00
Speaker 1: with the pros are back, I get it. Like the
8:03
Speaker 1: Jets are smart spot, I get why really smarts take
8:06
Speaker 1: up position here. But to me, I would not make
8:09
Speaker 1: this one my bigger bets so interesting when I hear
8:12
Speaker 1: a group has taken a large position on a game,
8:14
Speaker 1: that's like, again, I like the Bills, but there's nothing
8:16
Speaker 1: I'm putting. I'm not putting five figures. I'm not putting
8:19
Speaker 1: six figures anything crazy on it. And the last one
8:22
Speaker 1: was the Bears. Me, Chad, we nailed it on our
8:25
Speaker 1: love for it, uh five and a half as well
8:28
Speaker 1: at a lot of books we talked about now down
8:30
Speaker 1: to four and a half. There was a no brainer
8:32
Speaker 1: play like Miami, everyone sees what we're seeing, right, like
8:36
Speaker 1: they will barely be Pittsburgh by six. Right, you can
8:39
Speaker 1: write that off the two again, right, But Detroit had him.
8:42
Speaker 1: Detroit really did have them. They led him into that game.
8:44
Speaker 1: They did for a point that second half. The Bears
8:46
Speaker 1: offense consistently moves the ball, so I know we're gonna
8:50
Speaker 1: talk about that one this week. Feels good knowing the
8:52
Speaker 1: pros are on it with us. So yeah, definitely definitely
8:55
Speaker 1: a little scary with that Bills one, but feeling still
8:57
Speaker 1: feeling really good about Washington. Uh A happy We gave
9:00
Speaker 1: about three and a half because we both kind of
9:01
Speaker 1: knew that number was gonna move the Bears. When I
9:04
Speaker 1: did not see going down, I thought that was you
9:05
Speaker 1: up to six. Love Love of Prose came in and
9:08
Speaker 1: backed us on that one, So I opefay contests we
9:11
Speaker 1: stick a five and a half, but I'd still take
9:13
Speaker 1: it four and half. We both thought we think it
9:14
Speaker 1: should be three three and a half, So still think
9:16
Speaker 1: you're getting a good number there. Um, well, those were
9:19
Speaker 1: the first two games that we love the most, right,
9:21
Speaker 1: that was our sign and says that was our exact decision,
9:25
Speaker 1: depending on what we can get in the contest. I'm
9:28
Speaker 1: still gonna like those games. Um uh the other game,
9:34
Speaker 1: so let's go through the rest of the games that
9:36
Speaker 1: we liked. Uh, Detroit plus three and a half, I
9:42
Speaker 1: still like it. But DeAndre Swift is not going to
9:48
Speaker 1: play uh. I listened to Raybon and Stucky on the
9:52
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast this morning, and Raybond made a great
9:57
Speaker 1: case for the Lions. Everything about their offense is great
10:01
Speaker 1: at home. They're scoring more points at home as an
10:05
Speaker 1: average than the Packers have scored in any single game
10:07
Speaker 1: all year. The Packers rush defense is not very good.
10:11
Speaker 1: At the Packers defense is not very good. It's certainly
10:13
Speaker 1: not as good as any defense to the Lions have
10:15
Speaker 1: faced at home this year. All these great reasons to
10:18
Speaker 1: bet the Lions, but my confidence in the Lions is
10:22
Speaker 1: so shaken from what it was earlier in the year
10:26
Speaker 1: it's hard for me to commit even though it's What's
10:28
Speaker 1: interesting is a lot of the lines we talked about,
10:32
Speaker 1: some it moved, but the Lions hasn't moved at all.
10:35
Speaker 1: Still exactly at three and a half. Yeah, I can
10:39
Speaker 1: tell you that I know a couple of professionals that
10:41
Speaker 1: took up position on the Green Bay. So I do
10:44
Speaker 1: like the Lions too. With Chad, I do think the
10:48
Speaker 1: issue here is what I've been saying for weeks now,
10:50
Speaker 1: is they just seem to not finish out these games,
10:53
Speaker 1: and again they haven't. They don't cover like they were
10:56
Speaker 1: covering Machine. And now the books have caught up to it, right,
11:00
Speaker 1: had a multiple weeks here, they just simply have not covered.
11:02
Speaker 1: So scared, That's what I'll say about this. And I'm
11:05
Speaker 1: scared Simon's being a coward. But it's true. I want
11:08
Speaker 1: to take I want to take Detroit here because what
11:10
Speaker 1: you have just talked about, like, to me, Detroit can
11:13
Speaker 1: put up points. I have no faith in green Bay
11:15
Speaker 1: putting up points, especially with all the injuries they've had
11:17
Speaker 1: to the wide receiver position. So three and a half.
11:20
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm being sucked in on it. But the only
11:23
Speaker 1: reason to me eacha I won't have this in the
11:24
Speaker 1: contest is because the guys I listened to and trust
11:27
Speaker 1: that I know are smart players. They've taken a position
11:31
Speaker 1: on green Bay and the public is just pounded this
11:35
Speaker 1: Detroit nine and the number is just not moving. So
11:38
Speaker 1: um again, there's other dogs I like better this week,
11:41
Speaker 1: so we might stay away from it. But I can't.
11:44
Speaker 1: I can't as you sit here on Thursday, I can't
11:46
Speaker 1: honestly say that I would have this in our contest.
11:49
Speaker 1: I agree, there's something the way we choose our games.
11:54
Speaker 1: It's always about a confidence ranking and as much as anything.
11:59
Speaker 1: At the end of the am I going to have.
12:01
Speaker 1: Are the Lions at three and a half going to
12:03
Speaker 1: be one of the games knowing what we know now
12:06
Speaker 1: we're most confident about. I can't say that for sure.
12:09
Speaker 1: We'll see what happens Sunday. Things change a lot. Reminder
12:12
Speaker 1: follow us in the Action Network app Phase five. We
12:15
Speaker 1: will lock in our picks Sunday at noon. That's when
12:19
Speaker 1: we see where we land on these final games because
12:21
Speaker 1: a lot changes between numbers moving with the contest lines
12:25
Speaker 1: lock at injuries, so you know this is where we're
12:29
Speaker 1: thinking about today, so when we get to Sunday we
12:32
Speaker 1: can make some informed decisions. UM, let's talk about the
12:37
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts and the Patriots. Where are you landing right
12:45
Speaker 1: now in this game? I'm still in the Colds, but
12:48
Speaker 1: I still have no, like, no real confidence of taking them.
12:51
Speaker 1: I just I like the magic for the Colts and
12:53
Speaker 1: since they match up well against the strengths of New England. Um,
12:57
Speaker 1: that's a big number for a game that, assuming I him,
13:00
Speaker 1: will be close. But again, we're taking this kid Sam
13:04
Speaker 1: and a second start as a QB against Telichick like
13:08
Speaker 1: the guy kills young quarterbacks and he just again he
13:12
Speaker 1: schemes it up. Or these kids just by the third
13:14
Speaker 1: or fourth quarter, they're just done mentally. They're shot by him.
13:17
Speaker 1: What he does, the fake blitz, the movement, the switching
13:21
Speaker 1: from his own to man. He does a lot of
13:22
Speaker 1: trickeration to really getting guy's head. So again another game
13:26
Speaker 1: where I like the number. Uh, it's just scary where
13:30
Speaker 1: we're It feels like we're walking right into a trap here.
13:33
Speaker 1: But again another game. I know the pros are on
13:35
Speaker 1: the pros around the culture with us, so it's gonna
13:38
Speaker 1: be confidence in that sense. But we joked about it.
13:41
Speaker 1: I knew it was would come down in one of
13:42
Speaker 1: these games on Sunday. It was gonna be this or
13:45
Speaker 1: the Bears. Now I really like the Bears, right Like,
13:47
Speaker 1: I'm starting to feel more confident with the Bears. Where
13:49
Speaker 1: this colts one, it's kind of the same as Tuesday.
13:51
Speaker 1: It's like I feel like me and you're just doing
13:53
Speaker 1: the smart professional play here. Uh, we're deep in our soul,
13:57
Speaker 1: We're like, God, we hate going against Belichick in the
13:59
Speaker 1: spot When we look deep in our souls. Right now,
14:04
Speaker 1: we know we don't want to bet on Sam Ellenser
14:06
Speaker 1: in the Colts. If we're a little bit three games
14:08
Speaker 1: out of a million dollars, that's what's making it so hard.
14:12
Speaker 1: That's what's making it harder. Right, And I'm worried that
14:14
Speaker 1: all of a sudden we've been playing loose. We've won
14:16
Speaker 1: aged straight weeks, like now we're going to tighten up. Yeah,
14:21
Speaker 1: that's I'm a little worried about. Uh, all right, the
14:26
Speaker 1: Falcons plus three right now? Um, and uh, that number
14:34
Speaker 1: hasn't really moved their hosts in the Chargers, who are
14:37
Speaker 1: off of by um, you know, like my senses that
14:46
Speaker 1: we like the Falcons just because we don't have any
14:50
Speaker 1: faith in the Chargers coaching staff. But and the Chargers
14:53
Speaker 1: aren't that healthy. But the Falcon secondary can't cover anybody
14:56
Speaker 1: right now, that's true. But apparently they're gonna get is
15:00
Speaker 1: back to this week. And that's why I was gonna
15:01
Speaker 1: see if you want to make this our big balls
15:03
Speaker 1: better the week? Oh, because I feel like what you
15:08
Speaker 1: just said the truth. Right. The public is a little
15:11
Speaker 1: scared of this one. They're kind of looking at Lena
15:13
Speaker 1: and looking at that secondary and question. I have a
15:16
Speaker 1: lot of questions about we have Herbert coming in, who
15:18
Speaker 1: was you know, one of the top five guys in
15:21
Speaker 1: passing yards this this year, just a couple of weeks ago.
15:24
Speaker 1: And I get it. I get white people would be
15:26
Speaker 1: scared taking this one because the Chargers look like world beaters.
15:28
Speaker 1: But I still think if you can run the ball
15:31
Speaker 1: in the Chargers and you've got ball control, though, that's
15:34
Speaker 1: where you beat them. Like we've seen it time and
15:35
Speaker 1: time again this Charger's team when they lost the Seahawks,
15:38
Speaker 1: it wasn't Gino Smith doing incredible things right, it was
15:41
Speaker 1: the fact that they've ball controlled. And once Herbert, you know,
15:45
Speaker 1: gets one or two, three and ounce, he gets flustered.
15:48
Speaker 1: And that's the biggest issue right now with a lot
15:49
Speaker 1: of people on him, is he's streaking right, He'll have
15:53
Speaker 1: two or three drives, will have incredible throws, and he'll
15:56
Speaker 1: get down the field and sure they might be get
15:58
Speaker 1: seven out of it, but then he'll go quarters of
16:00
Speaker 1: doing nothing right, three and out, three and out, and
16:02
Speaker 1: it's again, I don't trust the O C for the charters.
16:06
Speaker 1: I don't like the position they've been putting Herbard in
16:09
Speaker 1: because to me, the kid has all talent in the
16:10
Speaker 1: world and they're just not winning. Right. We see a
16:12
Speaker 1: time and time again this year they simply aren't winning,
16:14
Speaker 1: and they have a lot of injuries as well, So
16:18
Speaker 1: I get where people are coming from. Um, but to me,
16:22
Speaker 1: you might be able to wait and maybe get the
16:23
Speaker 1: three and a half. But I would still grab the
16:25
Speaker 1: three because I do think pros are gonna come in
16:26
Speaker 1: on this Atlantic game. It just this feels like a
16:29
Speaker 1: pros versus shows game this week, just as just like
16:32
Speaker 1: the Browns did last week with all of the public
16:35
Speaker 1: was all over since and all the Pros wrong. The
16:37
Speaker 1: Browns feels like this conna be like this week with
16:39
Speaker 1: Atlanta Atlanta at home. In this position, I'll take that
16:43
Speaker 1: three three and a half if I can get it.
16:47
Speaker 1: I don't think this is our big balls better the week.
16:49
Speaker 1: Give me a bigger one then, dude, Tennessee, Tennessee, you
16:58
Speaker 1: would really, you'd really have that in then that stuff
17:01
Speaker 1: not in the contest, but you need you need bigger
17:04
Speaker 1: balls than that. Though, if you want to make it
17:06
Speaker 1: our big balls, well that's interesting because it's probably gonna
17:10
Speaker 1: be twelve and a half. I think it's gonna be
17:11
Speaker 1: twelve and a half or thirteen and a half. Never
17:14
Speaker 1: we've never had a rule where we said it is
17:18
Speaker 1: better the Week, or like an exact decision or a
17:20
Speaker 1: Simon says, it has to be in the contest. Yeah,
17:23
Speaker 1: it's all basically the number. I just think we'll get
17:24
Speaker 1: a good number on this for the Tennessee in the contest,
17:27
Speaker 1: just because it's been twelve and a half for thirteen
17:29
Speaker 1: all week. Now it's down to twelve. Yeah, it's uh yeah,
17:34
Speaker 1: well I see I see eleven and a half and
17:35
Speaker 1: I see twelve and a half. So um yeah, I mean,
17:38
Speaker 1: you know, you know, I love it. So if you
17:39
Speaker 1: want to make it on manil on it like I've
17:41
Speaker 1: already bet it. I'm Rabel is a big dog to me.
17:44
Speaker 1: It's just an auto play. It's been good to me.
17:46
Speaker 1: So Vandules Plush twelve and a half right now, that's
17:49
Speaker 1: a good number. Yeah dude, I'm calling it right now,
17:53
Speaker 1: big Better the Week. I can't be as loud as
17:59
Speaker 1: I normally would because I'm in a hotel and I
18:02
Speaker 1: don't want to scare the person in the room next
18:04
Speaker 1: to me. But Titans Plush twelve and a half is
18:07
Speaker 1: our big balls Better the Week. It's very very courteous
18:12
Speaker 1: of you in a place you're never gonna be ever again.
18:14
Speaker 1: After one day, I'm like the ops away. I raised
18:17
Speaker 1: hell in a place I know I'll never be back.
18:18
Speaker 1: So again, people be on the lookout for next two
18:21
Speaker 1: nights in Lexington. Listen, you and I live different lives.
18:24
Speaker 1: I don't want to walk out of the room and
18:25
Speaker 1: like randomly have the person next to me walk out
18:29
Speaker 1: at the same time and they're like, were you just
18:30
Speaker 1: yelling big balls better? The week at its happy your lungs?
18:34
Speaker 1: I would say, yes, again, You're never gonna see this
18:37
Speaker 1: person ever. Again. That's true. That's how I live almost
18:40
Speaker 1: all of my life. Right, guess what? Guess what Big
18:43
Speaker 1: Balls Better? All right? Well, you're right, I don't know
18:47
Speaker 1: that we'll do Tennessee in the contest at twelve and
18:49
Speaker 1: a half. It depends on where the lion is. Look,
18:52
Speaker 1: if we want to make it a case right now,
18:54
Speaker 1: no one's gonna take Tennessee twelve and a half. That
18:56
Speaker 1: will certainly get us a game up if I can
19:00
Speaker 1: see the pros being on it um. But again, the
19:03
Speaker 1: pros like the dogs this week. Like, I know a
19:05
Speaker 1: bunch of pros are on Houston tonight. You couldn't pay
19:08
Speaker 1: me to bet Houston tonight. I know a bunch of
19:10
Speaker 1: pros in the Jets, and I keep arguing with them,
19:12
Speaker 1: like the Jets identity has kind of feels like it's
19:14
Speaker 1: gone now, Bryce Albey now, but they don't care. They
19:17
Speaker 1: still believe in that defense. So three big dogs this week,
19:20
Speaker 1: I can tell you, all pros run all three. Last week,
19:23
Speaker 1: all pros run all three big favorites. So it's flipped
19:26
Speaker 1: this week to last week. What do we think about
19:29
Speaker 1: the Falcons though? So right now I'm putting Falcons in
19:31
Speaker 1: tightens sort of on a side list. I have Washington
19:35
Speaker 1: and Chicago on a main list. I have Detroit on
19:38
Speaker 1: a side list. I would put the Cults on there now,
19:41
Speaker 1: fine with that. I would definitely get a lane on there.
19:43
Speaker 1: That's gonna be one of my that you're gonna feel
19:47
Speaker 1: strongest about. Atlanta. I feel like by the time the
19:50
Speaker 1: contest comes around, I will, especially if it's three and
19:52
Speaker 1: a half, Like I kind of feel like I have
19:54
Speaker 1: to do it because again, the Chargers could win. I
19:56
Speaker 1: could just see it being a close game because they
19:59
Speaker 1: just will go for the fourth and twenty fourth in
20:02
Speaker 1: their own twenty uh and make no sense, and then
20:05
Speaker 1: they will be a close game. So to me, Atlanta
20:08
Speaker 1: has just played well at home. I gotta take those points,
20:11
Speaker 1: all right. So right now, Washington three and a half,
20:13
Speaker 1: there's five Falcons, three um Colts five and a half.
20:17
Speaker 1: Those are for the like a lot. What about Bengal
20:21
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't love the hook, like
20:24
Speaker 1: I feel like we're paying interest. We don't need to pay.
20:28
Speaker 1: There might be other games on the board, So I
20:31
Speaker 1: would pay because I think that that's what they're trying
20:33
Speaker 1: to do to you. They're trying to suck you in
20:34
Speaker 1: and take Carolina plus seven and a half after the
20:37
Speaker 1: last week, just because they know that the public is
20:40
Speaker 1: mad at the Bengals. Right, people were loaded up on
20:43
Speaker 1: that money night game and they got embarrassed. No way
20:46
Speaker 1: is any any of those people taken. That's how the
20:48
Speaker 1: public is though, right. We joke all the time about
20:50
Speaker 1: that they are bitter, and they're bitter towards this bengaltya
20:53
Speaker 1: from last week, and they're like, why would I take
20:54
Speaker 1: them seven and a half? I can take Carolina, who
20:57
Speaker 1: looks way better with this qb um. Again, Bengals just
21:01
Speaker 1: lost their top corner as well, so that's a big
21:03
Speaker 1: deal for DJ more. But I just think a bad
21:06
Speaker 1: spot for Carolina playing back back to back road games
21:11
Speaker 1: such a crushing defeat last week. Again, if they keep
21:14
Speaker 1: it close, I will completely change my grade on p J. Walker.
21:18
Speaker 1: I just think you're kind of buying high on him
21:21
Speaker 1: coming off back to back really good starts for him
21:23
Speaker 1: against defenses are now where near as good as his
21:26
Speaker 1: Bengals defenses. Like this Bengals defense, I problemly issue. They
21:30
Speaker 1: are much better than what they showed against that Browns team.
21:32
Speaker 1: Just we've seen the Browns match up well against We
21:35
Speaker 1: know divisional games are weird like that, right, Browns are
21:37
Speaker 1: now four against Joe Joe Burrow since he's been the
21:39
Speaker 1: quarterback there. That makes zero sense for the last two
21:42
Speaker 1: years since then, he's been much better than the Browns.
21:45
Speaker 1: It's just divisional games are weird, like that team just
21:47
Speaker 1: match up well against her playing styles. It's a scary one.
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Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. Here here's one that worries me
24:00
Speaker 1: the most that you and I both love. See I'll
24:03
Speaker 1: see Hawks plus two against Arizona, and Yeah, I cannot
24:07
Speaker 1: find a way to walk away from this game because
24:13
Speaker 1: everything about it says Seattle is a better team catching
24:16
Speaker 1: points with a better coach. The only reason not to
24:19
Speaker 1: do it is because uh, we feel like we're a
24:24
Speaker 1: peak Seattle the way we did we felt like we
24:26
Speaker 1: were a peak Atlanta. But they're just be team. Yeah.
24:31
Speaker 1: I was hoping to get more calls about them this
24:33
Speaker 1: week and find out what more guys are doing. It
24:36
Speaker 1: seems like most pros are staying away. We're just taking
24:38
Speaker 1: Seattle like they're not actually back in the Cardinals here,
24:41
Speaker 1: which even more, I know it sounds stupid, even more
24:43
Speaker 1: of being like, well, crap, are we all stepping in
24:45
Speaker 1: it then, because we're all behying the Seattle like Chad
24:48
Speaker 1: just talking about here. But the reason I feel comfortable
24:51
Speaker 1: taking them is what I've talked about last week. I
24:53
Speaker 1: agree with Chad. I think the Sect were playing better
24:56
Speaker 1: right now, and their defense has really been playing better
24:59
Speaker 1: these as a couple of weeks the same defense and
25:01
Speaker 1: only give up nine points of this Cardinals team, not
25:04
Speaker 1: even for like two or three weeks ago. So yeah, yeah,
25:07
Speaker 1: I could be right, we could be walking right into it.
25:09
Speaker 1: But two and a half too, that's a good number
25:13
Speaker 1: for a Seahawks team. That's just good right now. Again,
25:15
Speaker 1: the number they're the leading their division for a reason,
25:17
Speaker 1: Like they've been winning these close games, so Um, it
25:21
Speaker 1: could be right, but there's so much dysfunction right now.
25:24
Speaker 1: The Cardinals, I just I can't do it. Like, if
25:27
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet in this one, I'm gonna do what
25:29
Speaker 1: the other guys I've talked to is doing. Like I'm
25:30
Speaker 1: gonna take Seahawks. I'll throw them in a couple of
25:33
Speaker 1: teachers as well across the eight and a half, across
25:36
Speaker 1: the seven and a half. But I just can't can't
25:39
Speaker 1: back the Cardinals sea even though I feel it was
25:41
Speaker 1: like Chad's right that we might be uh, wait you
25:43
Speaker 1: a week a little one week too long. I'll keep
25:46
Speaker 1: back in the Seahawks team. But I like how they're clicking.
25:48
Speaker 1: The defense is really playing well, and they again they
25:52
Speaker 1: just for the last month of October, they just had
25:53
Speaker 1: the rookie of the year at a cornerback and they
25:56
Speaker 1: have the rookie the running back. So we've clearly see
25:59
Speaker 1: their drafts and big dividends and they're both healthy. So
26:02
Speaker 1: that to me, that's the big reason here the Seahawks.
26:04
Speaker 1: I just like that team right now. I think we
26:06
Speaker 1: just talked ourselves into Seattle to being like very strongly
26:10
Speaker 1: honor list. Yeah, especially if it's at two and a
26:14
Speaker 1: half or two Seattle, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta. I would say Detroit, Tennessee,
26:23
Speaker 1: indeed Cincinnati are potentials for last one in or two
26:32
Speaker 1: potentials to be last ones in to knock somebody out,
26:35
Speaker 1: depending on numbers. Yeah, and like again, we didn't touch
26:39
Speaker 1: on it. I know, Chat said you like the Buccaneers.
26:42
Speaker 1: I talked to too many smart groups. They're they're playing
26:44
Speaker 1: the ramp side. I'll stay away. Like again, there's only
26:47
Speaker 1: been a handful of games I haven't touched this year.
26:50
Speaker 1: I'll still probably get on the under in that game.
26:52
Speaker 1: But I just I got no real read on picking
26:54
Speaker 1: either side. It just both teams. This is like their season.
26:58
Speaker 1: It feels like, right, the Bucks need this, when so
27:01
Speaker 1: are the Rams just as bad? Like they need this
27:03
Speaker 1: to stay afloat and maybe I have a chance in
27:05
Speaker 1: this division. Very telling that neither of these teams made
27:08
Speaker 1: a move of the trade deadline. The Buccaneers didn't make
27:11
Speaker 1: a single move in either of the ramps, which was
27:13
Speaker 1: very telling of what the GM's view of. Well, we
27:16
Speaker 1: thought we were gonna be Super Bowl contenders this year.
27:18
Speaker 1: I think the teams are starting to kind of realization
27:20
Speaker 1: it might be a loss year. For both teams. So
27:24
Speaker 1: you know we have Evanighbrahams are research or extraordinaire um.
27:29
Speaker 1: So I asked him to look something up for me.
27:32
Speaker 1: Greatest of all time quarterbacks the week after Divorce and
27:37
Speaker 1: Supermodel against the spread two and seven? Is there? Is? There?
27:45
Speaker 1: Is there? A dump bump? It was a joke. It
27:48
Speaker 1: was a joke. How did you not get that? Because
27:51
Speaker 1: I don't know what was funny, dude, I made a
27:54
Speaker 1: funny joke about about a man's getting divorced. You're dancing
27:58
Speaker 1: on Tom Brady's grave, Chad, for shame? Do you not
28:01
Speaker 1: have any shame? You you decide to find something precious
28:09
Speaker 1: that is too precious to joke about. I am shocked.
28:13
Speaker 1: I'm I'm a hopeless romantic. I'm a hopeless romantic. Sorry,
28:17
Speaker 1: Chad as someone that has never been married, and nobody
28:20
Speaker 1: loves love more than me. Don't bring your That's not true.
28:23
Speaker 1: You just you're just shipping all over. I made a
28:28
Speaker 1: funny betting joke. Listen, my sins humor is so good.
28:36
Speaker 1: I put a guy who DM me on Twitter, and
28:38
Speaker 1: then I had a fifteen minute phone call on my
28:40
Speaker 1: podcast and look where we are now. It's true two thousand,
28:45
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28:48
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28:50
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29:46
Speaker 1: Here's where we are. By the way, foxhol we said
29:50
Speaker 1: it earlier the week Bengals minus seven. Simon says Washington
29:53
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Both of those numbers exact
29:56
Speaker 1: decision Bears plus five. That numbers moved. What we're saying,
29:59
Speaker 1: people is if we say something, bet it right away.
30:03
Speaker 1: Titans plus twelve and a half. That is our big
30:05
Speaker 1: balls better the week. These are the teams that we're
30:09
Speaker 1: leaning into right now on our list that we will evaluate.
30:13
Speaker 1: That are the lead positions to be in our pay
30:16
Speaker 1: five for the contest to win a million dollars. Washington
30:18
Speaker 1: three and a half, bears five m Falcon's three, Seattle
30:22
Speaker 1: to having a lot of deep thoughts about Detroit plus
30:25
Speaker 1: three and a half, Colts plus five and a half.
30:28
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe Tennessee plus twelve and a half. Yeah, my
30:36
Speaker 1: dog blocks your dog. Your dog blocks my dog. Who
30:42
Speaker 1: do we want to put in our money line? Round
30:44
Speaker 1: Robin par uh bttle week. Let's start with the Seahawks,
30:50
Speaker 1: no brainer, Give me a little Atlanta, give me a
30:53
Speaker 1: little bit of Washington. Sure? Should we do it? Yeah?
30:58
Speaker 1: I can't do it. No. No, Like I want to
31:03
Speaker 1: say it, but I feel like that'd be such a waste.
31:06
Speaker 1: What about the trade That's what I was thinking, like,
31:10
Speaker 1: should we do it? But they haven't? Yeah, all right,
31:13
Speaker 1: you got I feel like, if if Green Bay is
31:15
Speaker 1: gonna win, this has to be a game they win.
31:17
Speaker 1: Like I just need them losing by three, But that's fair.
31:20
Speaker 1: I'll put the trade in there because we kind of
31:21
Speaker 1: need it. And also why don't we do in Chicago?
31:24
Speaker 1: That's that's the final piece. Yea. Here's a great stat
31:27
Speaker 1: that Brandon Anderson had. He does his story every week
31:31
Speaker 1: where he sort of talks about the early bets that
31:33
Speaker 1: he's making in the early leans and stuff. Um, and
31:37
Speaker 1: he had an amazing stat about teams this year that
31:42
Speaker 1: have been underdogs between three and ten points this year
31:49
Speaker 1: against the spread covering sixty at the time. Those teams
31:53
Speaker 1: are and one straight up r o I on the
31:57
Speaker 1: money line. So, uh, Seattle doesn't fall into that, but
32:03
Speaker 1: Washington does, Atlanta does, the Bears do, and Detroit does. Yeah.
32:09
Speaker 1: That's crazy though, the year the dog in the enders.
32:12
Speaker 1: Yeah right, So I like this so for those listening
32:16
Speaker 1: on it, because I know sometimes it's hard to follow
32:18
Speaker 1: alone the money line Rob Robin underdog parlay Seattle, Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, Chicago.
32:26
Speaker 1: That's it. Perfectly scoot something. I'm dominating you and oh
32:31
Speaker 1: my god, I totally forgot about scoot Roulette. When all
32:34
Speaker 1: hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's play
32:40
Speaker 1: scoots Roulette. Cut it on purpose. You're right, you're dominating
32:47
Speaker 1: it right now. I started off so hot, crushing it.
32:50
Speaker 1: I was feeling it was confident, confident, man. I told you, Chad,
32:55
Speaker 1: I gotta you're getting You're again a little two cockies?
32:57
Speaker 1: Are you sure? And You're like, I'm feeling pretty good. Yeah,
33:01
Speaker 1: we sit. We're raight weeks in Simon six and two,
33:05
Speaker 1: Chad three of the three and fun I know I
33:10
Speaker 1: read it down check it's that funny thread every time. Yeah,
33:15
Speaker 1: I don't know. I hate I got it. I don't
33:18
Speaker 1: do because, like me and Chad talked about our favorite games,
33:20
Speaker 1: the lines have moved so much so it's tougher. It's like,
33:23
Speaker 1: I want to take Washington with the three Nats gone,
33:26
Speaker 1: I kind of want to take the Bears, but I
33:28
Speaker 1: hate doing the cross stream, so I'll go with the team.
33:31
Speaker 1: We haven't really picked for anything that you know. I'm
33:34
Speaker 1: all in on him this year. Somebody as well ride
33:36
Speaker 1: with him in Scooch Seahawks plus to give it to me.
33:40
Speaker 1: All right, you're taking Seattle plus two. It's tough. This
33:44
Speaker 1: is tough. I I need to win. I need to win,
33:49
Speaker 1: and I gotta go and do it with a game
33:50
Speaker 1: I feel confident about. I feel like it's the Bears,
33:56
Speaker 1: so I can break your heart twice. Yeah, I'm all
33:59
Speaker 1: in on this team. And now the Bears. I like
34:02
Speaker 1: their moves. I like shedding a bad defense. Give it
34:05
Speaker 1: a pleasure, not gonna pay. Start getting some assets, give
34:08
Speaker 1: Justin Fields some weapons. Even though Chase claypo will probably
34:11
Speaker 1: will make it that big of a difference this weekend,
34:13
Speaker 1: it's a fade of Miami. Give me the Bears, bear down.
34:18
Speaker 1: Let's thrill the nation with the T formation. All Right,
34:22
Speaker 1: we did it, man. We didn't know how it was
34:24
Speaker 1: gonna go. Getting into Lexington, Matt Mitchell, I don't even
34:28
Speaker 1: know where in the hotel he is. Wherever you could
34:29
Speaker 1: find the internet machine to work for Matt Mitchell, for
34:33
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, I am Shad Millman. Reminder, We're live tomorrow
34:37
Speaker 1: a keen Land in Lexington, Kentucky, one p m. Eastern
34:40
Speaker 1: Radio row. Come join us me, Simon. Matt Mitchell will
34:44
Speaker 1: be there together. This has been the favorites from the
34:47
Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. You can rate, review, subscribe, Spotify, Apple
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Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
34:57
Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you, sa