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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday and a very happy one to you. It's
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: that time of week we do the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis joining the program to talk
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: about basically for the past couple of years, war and
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: the situation between, of course, we'll start with the United
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: States and Iran. Daniel Davis, welcome back to the morning show,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: my friend. Good to have you back on.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Always good to be here, but man, I wish we
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: could talk about sports or something instead of the.
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: War all the time.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I know.
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  Speaker 3: Here we are.
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  Speaker 1: I just really am convinced that like most days of late,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, we're not going to end on a real
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  Speaker 1: optimistic note. With that in mind, maybe you'll prove me wrong,
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  Speaker 1: and I hope so. I guess I found out for
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  Speaker 1: the first time, maybe you knew about this, the Iranians
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: are able to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz
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  Speaker 1: using rockets. I guess we got wind that they were
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  Speaker 1: getting ready to fire some rockets in the Strait of
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  Speaker 1: Hormuz to plant mines there. after the administration had previously
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  Speaker 1: announced that the Strait had been cleared of mines, and
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  Speaker 1: I want to get your response to that assertion, but
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  Speaker 1: we blew up their rocket-launching sites, and they in turn
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  Speaker 1: launched rockets and missiles into Jordan to shoot at our troops,
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  Speaker 1: got a sizable presence there, and I guess the idea
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  Speaker 1: now is, at least I've read several locations, that maybe
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  Speaker 1: we'll just keep doing limited strikes against the Iranians, just
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  Speaker 1: to keep them at bay, and this kind of will
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  Speaker 1: go on I suppose the administration's position is until the
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  Speaker 1: Iranians collapse economically. But as long as the Iranians have
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  Speaker 1: the ability to lay any mines, there's a big concern
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  Speaker 1: in the shipping community that, well, if there's even one
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  Speaker 1: out there, we can't send our multi-million, billion-dollar boats through
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  Speaker 1: and lose the cargo and the ships themselves, which is
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  Speaker 1: going to keep things at a screeching halt.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, first of all, just on the capability itself, we
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  Speaker 2: saw this in the Russia and Ukraine wars early on, actually.
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  Speaker 2: It's called the indirect mine laying method, where you can
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  Speaker 2: fire either artillery shells to lay mines or rockets, and
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  Speaker 2: they will scatter mines out over an area.
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  Speaker 3: The warhead will go off above the.
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  Speaker 2: Water, and the mines will come out and follow inside there,
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  Speaker 2: et cetera. So that's a distance laying mine method. So
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  Speaker 2: that's been around for a while. It's not very common
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  Speaker 2: because people, you know, pay attention to that kind of
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  Speaker 2: thing normally uh but uh yeah in terms of the
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  Speaker 2: bigger issue you know we claimed uh admiral cooper claimed
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  Speaker 2: that we had demined the whole thing it was done
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  Speaker 2: which i raised my eyebrows when he said it because
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  Speaker 2: i remember uh earlier in the war the uh military
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  Speaker 2: had said it would take probably about six months to
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  Speaker 2: clear the the persian gulf of all the mines after
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  Speaker 2: the war had been over and then all of a
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  Speaker 2: sudden here he claims with the war still not solved
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  Speaker 2: it was done And then yesterday, the timing isn't completely clear.
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  Speaker 2: Either right before that issue where we struck those rockets
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  Speaker 2: or right after.
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  Speaker 3: It, two ships hit mines. So, obviously, it was not clear.
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  Speaker 2: So, I don't know what to make of that, but
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  Speaker 2: that's what we claimed, and yet that's what happened. Overnight,
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  Speaker 2: two more tankers were hit, not with mines, but with
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  Speaker 2: projectiles of.
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  Speaker 3: Some sort, drone, missile, we are not sure yet. So...
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  Speaker 3: The Strait is definitely not open.
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  Speaker 2: In the last five days, the amount of traffic has
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  Speaker 2: significantly curtailed to an average of about five ships in
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  Speaker 2: and out per day, which basically means none, since there
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  Speaker 2: should be somewhere around 100, 130. So, no, the problem is, Brian,
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  Speaker 2: if that's our objective, to just drag this out until
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  Speaker 2: the economic pain on Iran gets high enough to cause
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  Speaker 2: the government to collapse, then we'll be going on like
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  Speaker 2: this for years, because they can suffer more a lot.
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  Speaker 2: They're prepared for this. They're mentally prepared for this. And
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  Speaker 2: they have a lot of experience and suffering. But the
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  Speaker 2: longer that strait stays closed, there's a reciprocal economic impact
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  Speaker 2: on our side with not just the amount of oil
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  Speaker 2: getting out, which is reduced, but with the other things
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  Speaker 2: we've talked about, like fertilizers and helium and other kinds
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  Speaker 2: of derivatives, sulfur that's necessary for other economic activity around
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  Speaker 2: the world, jet fuel and diesel being two of the
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  Speaker 2: bigger ones, we just can't do it. That's not going
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  Speaker 2: to work for us. So we're going to have to
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  Speaker 2: find another way out of this.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I guess for those naysayers who'd say, no, no,
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians are going to capitulate. They're going to collapse.
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  Speaker 1: They're in terrible straits economically. And you can't deny there
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  Speaker 1: are a lot of reports out there about suffering going
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  Speaker 1: on in the Iranians. But to your point, I think
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  Speaker 1: a parallel can be drawn. Who in God's name thought
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  Speaker 1: that this Russia-Ukraine war was going to be going on
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  Speaker 1: for north of four years? The Ukrainian people have shown
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  Speaker 1: that type of resolve in the face of the Russian might.
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  Speaker 3: Great point.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great point because, I mean, by most
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  Speaker 2: military expectations, I mean, number one, I mean, and I
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  Speaker 2: argue this all the time and will again here, is
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  Speaker 2: that the balance, military balance between Russia and Ukraine is
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  Speaker 2: such that Ukraine can never win.
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  Speaker 3: They can't reverse this.
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  Speaker 2: But they can go on a long time as they're
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  Speaker 2: showing incredible, not even resilience so much as just a
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  Speaker 2: willingness and an ability to suffer. And the Iranian people,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, we're talking we're just six months into this.
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  Speaker 2: And remember, again, they've been under sanctions for a long time.
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  Speaker 3: 47 years.
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  Speaker 2: They went through a war, eight-year-long war, where they were
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  Speaker 2: suffering massive numbers of casualties and the economic sanctions.
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  Speaker 3: They know how to do this. They've got the playbook.
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  Speaker 2: So if we think that this is going to bring
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  Speaker 2: them to their knees quickly, I think we might need
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  Speaker 2: a new idea.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and I'd be remiss if I didn't point out
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  Speaker 1: quickly that Afghanistan is a similar situation, a country where
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  Speaker 1: we had boots on the ground. We were there for
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  Speaker 1: 20 years on the heels of the Russians being there for, what, 10?
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  Speaker 1: And guess who's still there?
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  Speaker 3: That's a fact.
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  Speaker 1: And guess who's not there? Yeah. I mean, that's a
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  Speaker 1: lesson that needs to be learned, I think, Daniel. But the—
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  Speaker 1: But the broader problem with the Iranians never seems to
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  Speaker 1: go away. I mean, nobody in my listening audience embraces
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians. They don't like their political philosophy. They don't
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  Speaker 1: like the way they treat women, the religious fundamentals. We
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  Speaker 1: can go on and on and on. The fact that
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  Speaker 1: they support terrorist organizations who are regularly blowing up things,
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  Speaker 1: and us included, there doesn't seem to be any solution
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  Speaker 1: to this, Daniel Davis. Have you thought one up that
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  Speaker 1: is plausible even?
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  Speaker 3: Well, here's the thing.
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  Speaker 2: We have made this an existential fight for Iranian regime
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  Speaker 2: and the Iranian people. And by the way, we have
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  Speaker 2: coalesced around theirs. So there is, and I had from
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  Speaker 2: a source yesterday told me, there's around 20 million hardcore supporters.
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  Speaker 3: Of the Iranian regime.
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  Speaker 2: That's a country of 95 million. So the rest are
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  Speaker 2: somewhere in between. They just don't like war. But there's
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  Speaker 2: about 20 million that are hardcore supporters. And believe me,
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  Speaker 2: with all this stuff we're doing, They don't take this as, oh,
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  Speaker 2: we should turn against our regime because they caused America
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  Speaker 2: to come in. No, they see America and Israel attacking them,
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  Speaker 2: and they don't care about the reasons. All they know
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  Speaker 2: is that they're being imposed, and all of these hardships
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  Speaker 2: are on our side, so they're going to continue to resist,
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  Speaker 2: and they're not going to give in, and they're not
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  Speaker 2: going to give in with their flexibility and their leverage
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  Speaker 2: in that Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Bandab with
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  Speaker 2: the Houthis, etc., So we're going to have to do
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  Speaker 2: something different if we want a different outcome, because you
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  Speaker 2: can't militarily bring them to their knees. You can try
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  Speaker 2: and dragging this out economically, but we've tried that in
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  Speaker 2: countries all over the world, and it takes years to do, man.
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  Speaker 2: You can't get this done in the near term. And again,
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  Speaker 2: unlike the Afghanistan, unlike even Vietnam or the Iraq war,
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  Speaker 2: this has a direct economic impact on us that didn't
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  Speaker 2: happen before.
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  Speaker 3: So the dynamics.
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  Speaker 2: Are different and too few people are recognizing that difficulty.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to have to do something we don't want to, Brian,
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  Speaker 2: and we're going to have to make a deal or
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  Speaker 2: we're going to get hurt bad.
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  Speaker 1: Well, the fact that it affects the global economy so profoundly,
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  Speaker 1: maybe less for the United States, but more so for
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  Speaker 1: the NATO countries, European Union, um, It's got a geopolitical impact.
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  Speaker 1: The United States is not real high on people's happiness
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  Speaker 1: list considering we started this conflict with the Iranians. So
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  Speaker 1: I think the globe seems to be looking at us
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  Speaker 1: to blame for the economic repercussions as opposed to the Iranians.
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  Speaker 3: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And there's an additional factor you have to roll in
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  Speaker 2: on top of that, too. And believe me, these conversations
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  Speaker 2: are happening around the world right now among our friends.
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  Speaker 3: And that is they're saying, hang on. Wait a minute.
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  Speaker 2: I thought that having American bases in your country was
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  Speaker 2: supposed to be a protection for you, was supposed to
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  Speaker 2: show the presence of American forces would keep you safe.
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  Speaker 3: And instead, it's been a missile magnet.
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  Speaker 2: And now that wherever their base was, here comes the
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  Speaker 2: missiles and you can't stop it. You can't stop the
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  Speaker 2: missiles on your own base. You can't stop the missiles
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  Speaker 2: hitting our facilities and our country and our energy systems, etc.,
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  Speaker 2: people are starting to think maybe we need to rethink
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  Speaker 2: hosting American bases. You talk about a geopolitical earthquake. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: that could be profound. Even once this war is over,
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  Speaker 2: there's going to be a shift. I promise you that
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  Speaker 2: is coming.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis doing the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Speaking of missiles,
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  Speaker 1: and I'm glad you used the M word because the
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  Speaker 1: Department of War is outraged over the Washington Post release
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  Speaker 1: of the Secretary of Defense Orders book. Apparently, it's a
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  Speaker 1: confidential report where leaders were really concerned and articulated concerns
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  Speaker 1: over our dwindling stockpiles. Now, this is something you and
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  Speaker 1: I have talked about before because this isn't the first article,
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  Speaker 1: the Washington Post article that I've read, you know, officials concerned,
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  Speaker 1: you know, quoted on a condition of anonymity because they're
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: not authorized to speak. American officials, those in the know,
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  Speaker 1: are complaining to that we're running out of supplies, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: We've got multi-billion dollar new contracts with Raytheon and others.
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  Speaker 1: Clearly there is a need for them. Requests from this
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  Speaker 1: administration to ramp up production, to deal with the dwindling stockpiles.
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  Speaker 1: Can we even, if it was determined that we need
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  Speaker 1: to get boots on the ground and start launching missiles,
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  Speaker 1: can we even keep up with the demand? We have
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  Speaker 1: a global demand. We've got issues with obviously Taiwan, other
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  Speaker 1: theaters of battle. We've got other threats in the world.
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  Speaker 1: Can we rise to the challenge under the current situation, Daniel?
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  Speaker 3: No, we can't. And that's an alarm.
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  Speaker 2: I keep raising too in both my show and my
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: published works.
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  Speaker 3: I've been raising this alarm too.
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  Speaker 2: That just helped because it showed that there's others on
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  Speaker 2: the inside that are so alarmed that they're willing to
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: risk literal jail time by leaking this information out. because
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  Speaker 2: they see all this happy talk by too many of
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  Speaker 2: our leaders that, oh, no, we've got all the ammunition
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  Speaker 2: we need.
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  Speaker 3: We can do whatever we want. And they know we
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  Speaker 3: can't do whatever we want.
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  Speaker 2: See, we went down a system years ago, like decades ago,
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  Speaker 2: deciding that we're going to have this deal where we
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  Speaker 2: have high expense, high dollar value missiles that are highly precise,
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  Speaker 2: but that take forever.
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  Speaker 3: In some cases, I'm not.
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  Speaker 2: Making this up, it takes many years to make a
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  Speaker 2: single missile that because of the complexity of this. It's
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  Speaker 2: like basically making a small rocket, like you would go
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  Speaker 2: up to the moon or something like that.
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  Speaker 3: And so it takes a long.
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  Speaker 2: Time to make, and not only the cost, but our opponents,
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  Speaker 2: mainly Russia and Iran, I'm not as clear about China.
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  Speaker 2: I think they're in this case, but I know these
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  Speaker 2: other two are. They chose a path that there's a
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: lot fewer, I'm sorry, a lot less expensive manufacture, but
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  Speaker 2: they designed them so that they can be produced in
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  Speaker 2: weeks or months.
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  Speaker 3: Instead of years.
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  Speaker 2: So they can sustain a daily rate usage. Russia has
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  Speaker 2: now proven this. And the Iranians are doing the same.
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  Speaker 2: And now you're adding new layers and capabilities of long-range
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  Speaker 2: jet-powered drones, which are also cheaper than manned aircraft. but
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  Speaker 2: a lot more capable than the previous rounds of drones.
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  Speaker 2: And we're not keeping up with that. So we cannot
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  Speaker 2: defend against it and we cannot have enough offensive. And
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  Speaker 2: that's why we're in this case where we're in right now,
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  Speaker 2: where we don't have enough to finish this one war,
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  Speaker 2: but God help us if we get into more.
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  Speaker 1: No question about it. And just real briefly before we
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: part company, Daniel Davis, uh, just this morning, 12 people
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  Speaker 1: killed 21 wounded yet another wave of Russian air attacks
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  Speaker 1: on Ukraine's capital Kiev. Um, Illustrating the power of these drones,
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  Speaker 1: and that's something that the Ukrainians have seemed to have mastered,
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  Speaker 1: these jet-powered drones. Man, they are reaching the interior of
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  Speaker 1: Russia and hitting them hard with their oil and gas infrastructure, retail.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: They're blowing up their version of Amazon. Any brief update
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: or situation analysis from that conflict?
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  Speaker 3: Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Ukraine can't get into a tit-for-tat with that. They
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  Speaker 2: can't compete with Russia because as many as are getting
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  Speaker 2: through there, they're firing a massive number.
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  Speaker 3: They're actually firing in the last.
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  Speaker 2: Week or so more per day into Russia than Russia
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  Speaker 2: has fired into Ukraine. They can't keep up that pace,
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: but fewer of them strike. And every time they hit
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: one of those wild berries or some of these other
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  Speaker 2: Amazon-type things, Russia will take out five or six on
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  Speaker 2: the other side.
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  Speaker 3: The math is not working for Ukraine.
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  Speaker 2: We get headlines for that because we love to show
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: that anything bad happened to Russia, but the other headlines
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: for some reason aren't being showed that the return fire
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: is devastating Iran on the same categories.
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  Speaker 3: I ask you, Iran, Ukraine.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Ukraine. Daniel Davis, Deep Dive. Find them where you find
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: your podcasts. You can find them every week here on
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the 55KRC Morning Show, beginning at 830. Daniel Davis, like
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I thought, You know, listen, man, here's your homework assignment
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: for next Tuesday. Figure out a way where we can
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: end on a positive note.
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  Speaker 3: Hey, man, the NFL season is going to start pretty soon.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: There you go.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, that gives us something to look forward to.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: And look, you and I both have a smile on
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: our face based upon that. That alone is enough. Daniel
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Davis will be listening to you in your podcast and
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: look forward to next Tuesday at 830 for another round
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: of the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Take care, my friend.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: It's 842 at 55K.