Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / ACC / Big 12 Breakdown & Win Total Projections
Transcript
- Jackson: Hey everyone, welcome back to the show. My name's Jackson Now and that's Davis Bowman and this is the Mic Check Podcast. Davis, how's it going? Davis: Good man. How are you doing? We're we're close. Is the Jackson: Good, good. I know. Davis: is the last episode of the conference breakdown. did the SEC and went big ten. I think we're gonna try to get the big twelve and the ACC wrapped up in one. Jackson: Yeah, we're gonna cover Big Twelve ACC today. It's Yeah, we'll d Davis: It's gonna be a four hour podcast, so y'all be ready. Jackson: gonna try to keep this one brief. cover a little bit on on the teams we think that we feel strong about in each conference. So Gonna start with a little bit of general news, general headlines. Davis, you wanna you wanna give us a spiel? Davis: Yeah, I thought it was noteworthy to to bring up the the news about the all the NFL players returning. so Big Twelve or sorry, Big Ten Commission came out and said that basically any players that have signed an NFL contract or like foregone their NFL or their college eligibility will no longer be eligible to come back. I think it was voted on by the ADs and was voted sixteen to zero. So that was good news and that kind of set the precedent for the SEC to do the same thing, which we got recently as well. so it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I'm sure this is not the end of the story. There's no doubt that lawyers will continue to get involved, but I think it it's a at least a small step in the right direction. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I I think it's definitely a a step in the right direction. 'Cause it I mean, it was just kind of everyone's just running wild out there. people are doing whatever they want. Davis: Everyone being lame kiffy. Jackson: Yeah. Lane Kiffin, L SU's football and basketball team kinda going crazy with Davis: Yeah. Jackson: bending the rules. So glad there's some sort of order, some sort of steps being taken to kinda calm everything down in the college sports Davis: Yeah. Jackson: world. So Davis: Will Wade and Lane Kiffin. What a what a honorable duo they have of Jackson: Wanna do a Yeah, yep. Davis: Yep. other news, I think last last pod we talked about Keelan Russell being named the the starter. I think we have another five star freshman in Faison Brandon from Tennessee, so that'll be interesting as well. Jackson: Yeah. He'll be I think he'll be exciting to watch, especially in that system. obviously we haven't seen Davis: Yeah. Jackson: much of him, but I think I think I think he's the real deal and I think I've said that before. So it'll be interesting to see what he can do for Tennessee this year. Davis: Yeah. Other five star freshman, Jared Curtis not being named the starter. I think we talked about that on the first episode, how we thought that it might be a couple games. So this is kind of aligned with with how I think it was gonna roll. But I think by week three it'll be Jared Curtis's the QB one. Jackson: Yeah, I I was kinda surprised they named a starter. they opened with Austin P in Delaware, so I figure they kinda let that competition roll into the season a little bit, but yeah, I I wouldn't be surprised if they gave the nod to Jared Curtis down the road, which is why I was a little bit surprised that they didn't leave the the competition open ended headed into the the the Cupcake games. Davis: Yeah. I guess last starter news. Dan Mullen refused to name a starter and I didn't even realize that it was a competition. it was Jackson Arnold was the presumed starter. they did not name him and it'll be Jackson Arnold and former Michigan quarterback Alex Orgy battling it out in week zero. and we'll get into Jackson: I'm surprised Or Davis: the Jackson: I'm surprised he stuck I'm surprised Orgy stuck around. I mean, I feel like that guy had similar to Jackson Arnold, I think he was a pretty highly coveted recruit coming out of high school and Davis: Yeah. Jackson: You would think that he would maybe go somewhere else if he thought he wasn't gonna win the starting job. So but Davis: Yeah, 'cause he didn't win it last he was on that team last year, right? UN L V and he didn't start there last year, so Jackson: Yeah, yeah he was. And right. Yeah. Yeah, I know. Davis: well. Jackson: That'll be interesting to see. S one of the I think was he a five star or no? Maybe a four star. Davis: I I don't I don't recall. Jackson: Either way, either way, some big time recruit's gonna get left with a backup spot at UNL V and not be very happy, so Davis: Yeah. And they play they play week zero against Memphis, so we'll get into that more on the the next episode, where we're gonna give the week zero preview. Jackson: Yeah, very slept on game. I'm I'm excited to watch that one. So Davis: Yep. All right, sweet. So Jackson: Jumping floor. Davis: we got Big Twelve and ACC. You wanna I guess we'll start with the Big Twelve? Jackson: Yep. Let's do it. See the screen? Davis: Yeah. Jackson: All right. Big twelve. Davis: You wanna just give a rundown of like we're not gonna go team by team, but we're gonna give our picks and where we disagree to try to keep it quick. Jackson: Yeah. It the conferences are kinda crazy now. So since we have two on board for today, we're just gonna kinda generally cover the conference as a whole and kinda where we agree and disagree on these overs and unders. I guess we'll just start I think it's fair to say that both of us probably have Texas Tech winning this conference. Tim that just spends a lot of money, a lot more money than anyone in the conference, and I think. When you're when you're when you're a team in a conference that's the only one that's spinning money, it's kinda hard to not be the favorite heading into the season and I mean they can do some damage. They s they can do some damage in the college world playoffs when I assume they get there because of the the spending. So I definitely like Texas Tech to win the Big Twelve. Davis: Yeah. And even with all the Brendan Soresby news, they still had a pretty talented quarterback and Will Hammond. So while I don't think that he's the same level player as Soresby, I don't think it'll matter, at least in the Big Twelve regular season. Jackson: Yeah. I agree. So scrolling down here, we're both under on Arizona State. We're over and under on Kansas State. I am over, you are under. You wanna plead your case for you're under Davis: Yeah, so Jackson: there? Davis: yeah, so last year they went six and six. Vegas has them as an eight and a half. they do return Avery Johnson, but I don't love the schedule. They get Houston, Kansas, who I'm high on, Arizona. I think that there's a lot of middle tier teams that they have that I don't feel strongly about and outside of Avery Johnson, I don't feel great about the team. So, I think if the bull case is based on Avery Johnson, then that's fine, but I don't I don't necessarily believe in in him that much to to ride with him. I know that they did bring in Colin Klein, so maybe that'll give a bump as a dual threat quarterback himself at one point, but yeah, give me the the under here. Jackson: So I kind of saw it, and you mentioned Avery Johnson. I think that's a big edge for them. he's definitely shown glimpses of what he can be. I know he's struggled a little bit as well, but I think like you said, with Colin Klein coming in, that will definitely help him and his development. You look at the schedule, they need nine, which I mean is a big number. I don't I don't think I'm super, super strong on this, but Like Cincinnati, I'm not high on. Arizona State, Colorado, Iowa State, I'm not high on. So I think if they can just win some of these fifty fifty games is kind of where my mindset was, with taking the over here. Oklahoma State. I like Oklahoma State. I like Houston, but I think they can either split or maybe get both of those games being at home. so that's kind of where I landed with Kansas State. Just winning those home games and stealing some on the road against some middle tier teams that I'm not super high on. So Davis: Yeah. The Big Twelve, you obviously have one clear cut front runner runner in Texas Tech. there's a couple other teams we'll I'm sure we'll get into, but after that there's so much ambiguity. a lot of unknowns. So it wouldn't surprise me if there's a lot of disagreements shown here that maybe we're not as strong as what the maybe we don't have as much conviction as what the numbers are showing here. Jackson: Yep. All right, so the next we got a few here. Utah is the next over under we had. and to me I think Quarterback, Devin Dampier, I think he I think he can lead them to wins over a lot of these teams. I mean, I know Utah loses their coach, Kyle Whittingham, but they don't lose all their players. I know they lost a a decent chunk to Michigan, but I still think Utah's one of the one of the better teams in this league. you have a tough non con game with Arkansas. I feel like they'll be solid on defense. I feel like Utah's always pretty stout on defense and I don't know exactly what their recruiting class was or or their portal numbers, but I just have a hard time believing the drop off's gonna be drastic for Utah. Iowa State's terrible. And a lot of these games Utah at home has been extremely hard to beat. So I kinda had a them winning most of their home games and mentioned Cincinnati and Colorado and Iowa State. Iowa State I think is the worst team in the Big Twelve and Colorado's right there with Cincinnati, I don't think they'll have a coach by November. So I just think Utah kinda got bailed out a little bit with the schedule. You avoid Texas Tech, and then you get this home game against BYU. So that's that's big, not having to go on the road and to play that game. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. I like Devin Dampier. Kyle Whittingham. Obviously losing him to Michigan will be will be a big loss, but I I think eight and a half's a fine number. I I wouldn't touch it. Jackson: All right, so Kansas. I have him as a strong over. I'm not super high on this Kansas team. I just think they have a good coach and I think five and a half is a is a low number. So that's kind of that's kinda all all I got on Kansas. you obviously have a tough game against Missouri in your non con but not much else to say. I just think it's a low total for a team that I think could be could be decent. Davis: Yeah. I really liked Jalen Daniels last year. He obviously left. a lot of uncertainty at quarterback. I think that they're projecting to start. I think either either way it's a first time starter at quarterback. you have Dylan Edwards who's good running back. transferred over from Kansas State last year. I think was hurt most of the year, but he's electric, but five and a half, I think that that's probably a fair number given the uncertainty of quarterback. Jackson: All right. where do you want to go next? Davis: Let's go to Baylor. Jackson: Okay. Go for it. Davis: So Baylor, this is one of the ones that I felt the strongest or had the strongest conviction for with the under. Vegas has that number at six and a half. Last year they went five and seven. defense was atrocious last year. They actually had good pretty good quarterback play out of Sawyer Robertson. He graduated. They bring in DJ Lagway, who you know, for all his flaws, very Very physically gifted, but hasn't been able to put it all together. they have for Big Twelve standards, they have a tougher non-conference game with Auburn. I don't think or they're not favored to win that one. I think that this is a team that doesn't start hot this season and we can see Dave Aranda being let go after the first month or so. Jackson: Yeah, so for me with Baylor, I just see four games on the schedule that there's, in my opinion, no way they're winning. I don't think there's any way they're winning at BYU. They're not beating Tech at home. They're not going on the road and beating Houston, and I do not think they're beating Auburn. So that's four. So that means you have to squeak out let's see four that makes it eight wins. There's not a lot of room for error. if you lose those games. And there's just too many of these toss-up games and I don't feel comfortable about Baylor being able to take care of all these fifty fifty games or sixty forty games that they have left on their schedule. So that's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: why I'm a pretty strong under on Baylor. And DJ Lagway, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I mean he could turn out to be a good five star quarterback and kind of live up to more of that hype. But I don't think I don't think it's enough to to win seven games this year. Davis: Yeah, yeah. So we're both in agreement with Baylor. I think that that's probably one of our consensus flag plants with the under there. moving over to the the the next team, we have TCU. Looks like we're both strong overs there. this is a team that went eight and four last year. Vegas has the over under at six and a half. Sunny Dykes, the head coach, has produced back to back nine win seasons. So eight and four last year in the regular season, back to back nine one seasons, counting the bowl games. I think Vegas is factoring in the loss of Josh Hoover more than I think I would. I think he's a good quarterback, but I believe in the talent around them. They bring in, they bring back a lot of experience. quarterback is expected to be a Harvard transfer. so shout out Harvard. gimme give me the over. I think six and a half is really light. I trust the the coach and it seems like you do too. Jackson: Yeah. absolutely. I I like T C U. I think they had some close losses last year. And Like you said, I trust Sonny Dykes. weak non-con. Get a lot of these big games at home. Utah, Kansas State, BYU. I think Sonny Dykes and TCU will be able to get some wins in Fort Worth. So I'm I'm over. And I like Jaden Craig. I like, like you said, the weapons around him, and I think they'll be able to make some noise possibly in the Davis: Yeah. Any particular reason that you are a strong over for Iowa State? I don't have a real take here other than That roster that last year's roster is at Penn State now. And there's not many guys that I know on that roster. Jackson: Wait. You're s you're over, Davis. Davis: Mm-hmm. I got that backwards. Jackson: I don't I agree. I don't I don't know many guys on that roster either, so I see that overtake. Davis: no, I misread that. I guess looking at it, I guess I only have it as a slide over. four and a half so low, so no Jackson: You're right on the number, yeah. Davis: Yeah, no no no take from me. I thought that Jackson said strong over. So I I wanted to hear his take. but it's strong under, which I gave you I gave you my take for the strong under. So there Jackson: Yeah. Davis: you go. Jackson: There you go. I'm in agreement with you on your on your undertake. I think their whole roster's at Penn State and I I don't I they're gonna be bad this year. I think they're the my Davis: Yeah. Jackson: my lowest yeah, they're my lowest my lowest one I had, so Davis: Yeah. Sounds like we're in agreement with Arizona. I'm I just have it as a slide over, but I think that this is a team that I have more conviction than that number says. I really like Noah Fafita. He's returning for what feels like his like seventh year. you know, he put up like over three thousand yards, twenty nine touchdowns. They went nine and three in the regular season last year. The Vegas number is seven and five. I talked about the the middle tier of the Big Twelve being, you know, having so much ambiguity. So with that being said, I trust I trust the quarterback to be able to kind of navigate that. So gimme give me the over and I'm I have more conviction than that number says. Jackson: Yeah, I like No Fafita a lot. Like you said, I feel like he's been there forever. I would be higher on this team, I feel like, if the if the schedule wasn't as difficult as it was. you get some tough road games. BYU on the road, Davis: Schedule is tough. Yeah, schedule is tough. Jackson: Texas Tech on the road, Kansas State on the road, West Virginia on the road, who I'm not high on, but that's a tough place to play, and then you get T C U in Utah as well. So, Tough schedule, but I like Noah Fafida and I think Arizona's gonna be a a a solid team this year. Davis: Yeah. Yeah, I don't have I guess moving on to BYU, I don't have a whole lot to add. I think that eight and a half number's pretty solid. I like Bear Bachmeyer and love their coach. I'm drawing a blank Jackson: Sataki. Davis: Sion Sataki, Scion Sataki or I'm I'm probably butchering that. Yeah. Jackson: Kal Kalani Sataki, I think. Yeah. Davis: I I think I mean there's They'll be in the running for that second place in the in the Big Twelve, so I don't have anything to add them. Jackson: I agree. I I think it'll be interesting to see how Bear Bachmeyer takes that next step. he was a true freshman last year, right? Davis: I believe so. Number what, forty Jackson: Is that correct? Yeah. Davis: seven? God, I hated that's not a not a fan. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I think I think it'll be interesting to see him in in year two of this system. like you said, they got a great great coach and I think they'll definitely be up there come the end of the season, maybe playing for a Big Twelve championship. So that's all I got on BYU. Davis: Yeah. All right. I do want to talk about Houston. so I have so Vegas has it at eight and a half. according to some books. depending on where you look at, that number might be seven and a half. I have the number that I came up with was right under eight and a half. So I think it like eight point three eight. So If you can find seven and a half, I'd like that a lot. Even at eight and a half, I'd be willing to take the over there 'cause I think the the number or the odds were like plus one fifty. So even if I'm I think that's good enough odds to take the over. last year they Jackson: Yeah. Davis: went nine and three in the regular season. and I I think bringing back Connor Wigman and the talent that they have around them, I I don't think it's absurd for them to potentially, you know, take a ten win season. Jackson: Yeah. I would agree. I mean, I like Houston. I think like you said, bringing back the quarterback's a big big deal and will help them win some games this season. I think it's Bryce right. I think eight and half's a good number. Davis: Yeah, yeah. Eight and Jackson: So yeah. Davis: eight and a half's a good number, but you're getting you're getting the the some nice odds with eight and a half. So that's that's why I like it. Not a strong conviction play, but I do like Houston this year. Jackson: All right, moving on. Oklahoma State. Davis: So you got the strong over, slide under, I'd rather not Jackson: Yeah, so Davis: make the undercase. I I I like Drew Mestermaker. I but yeah, let me hear the strong overcase. Jackson: Yeah, I I like Messmaker. I I just think I think he's an NFL quarterback and I think he's gonna be able to win them some of these toss up games this year. I had it seven point three, that may be a little higher than I'm not super strong on Oklahoma State, but I think I'm optimistic about what they'll be able to do with the North Texas guys in year one in the Big Twelve. So I think the offense is gonna be explosive. Go ahead. Davis: Yeah. Without a doubt, yeah, without a doubt, the most improved team from last year to this year. I mean that North Texas team was was I put up numbers with Mesti Maker and then Caleb Hawkins was a top two or three running back transfer. And then you bring in Mesti Maker's number one target and Wyatt Young. So it's gonna be fun. I'm rooting for Not sure what to think of the defense, but yeah, I I I'm rooting for him. Jackson: Yeah. I I just think you're asking him to go against some of these middle tier, Big Twelve teams. And I think the difference maker in a lot of those games is gonna be quarterback play. And I would take Messmaker over ninety, maybe a hundred percent of of the quarterbacks in this league. So that's why that's kind of my reasoning for my overtake on Oklahoma State. Davis: Yeah. Yep. I like it. Okay. so we obviously talked about Jackson: Okay. Davis: that there being a a clear tear break after after Texas Tech. You for your big twelve conference champion, you taking Texas Tech or the field? Jackson: Texas Tech. Davis: Yeah, don't even have to think twice about it. All right. On to the Yeah. Jackson: Yeah. I'm cheering for the field. I'm I hope it's the field, but Texas Tech, yeah, for sure. Alright, we'll jump on over to Davis: Sweet. All right. On to the ACC. Jackson: ACC. Alright, we will kick off the ACC with Clemson. I'm strong over Davis, you're kinda right on it. Honestly, Davis: Yeah, y Jackson: go ahead. Davis: You see seven and a half for Clemson and you're like, man, that seems so low just given what Clemson used to be. but transfer portal era and NIL era hadn't been kind to Dabo Sweeney. I don't think that he's adapted well enough. they did lose some talent from a team that was supposed to be very good last year. I thought that they were going to be very good last year. So I I I'm in a wait Jackson: Yeah. Davis: and see mode with Clemson. Jackson: Yeah, and I wouldn't I would kind of knock my number back a little bit. I think eight point eight, a full game over, maybe high. I think they'll I think I think they have a better chance of going eight and four than they do seven to five. And that's kind of where I stand on Clemson. This league is pretty weak. I mean Miami I think is a clear cut favorite to win the ACC. SMU is a team that we're both high on. And then you have teams like Louisville, Virginia, NC State, Virginia T I mean, those are all kind of just like middle pack teams and and Clemson avoids a lot of them. they do get Miami. They don't play SMU. They don't play Louisville. they don't play Virginia. They don't play N C State. they play Georgia Tech, but And then get South Carolina at home. I I just think I have a hard time believing that they're gonna go seven and five, avoiding a lot of these somewhat upper tier ACC teams. so that's that's kinda I'm not super high on them. I don't think they're gonna make a cultural playoff run by any means, but I still think Clemson is is somewhat Clemson. so that's that's my reason for going over there. Davis: Yeah. I don't think that they've named a starter yet. they have the Chris Viz Vizina? no. Jackson: Yeah, some yeah. I can't I don't know how to pronounce his name. But yeah. Davis: who was the presumed starter hadn't been named yet. So that's just a an interesting wrinkle into the into the story. But All right, Miami. looks like we're kinda both right around the number. ten and a half is a lot when you start breaking it down, but I like Miami. I think that they're the favorite for the ACC. ten and a half is a lot, small margin of error. so I'm I don't have a strong conviction either way. Jackson: I don't lean either way. I know Darren Minz is coming in to replace Carson Beck. He was good last year for Duke, but there's always question marks when you have quarterback change. so ten and a half. Davis: Yeah. I really I really like I really like Darren Mensa. I think the biggest question Jackson: Yeah, I do too. Davis: mark is is that D line from last year was just game wreckers with two first round picks. Gonna be very tough to replace them. so that's my one hesitancy. Yep. Jackson: Yeah. It's gonna be hard to do the same thing they did last year. Yeah. Yeah, and like you said, ten and a half's big number, so I don't really lean either way. I'm high on Miami, but I don't think this is some kind of for sure thing that they're gonna go eleven and one. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I feel like may maybe we I mean Davis: Florida State. Jackson: yeah, Florida State. Davis: Dude, they have nowhere to hide. They play Alabama, Miami, Clemson, Louisville, Florida. Jackson: Florida, yeah. SMU, I don't know if you mentioned Davis: So, I mean, it just Jackson: that. Davis: SMU, I mean, it it's not easy and it doesn't start easy. I I think Norvell's out of there. I think on the first pod podcast we talked about coach coaches on the hot seat and this one was just a presumed one. And I said like without knowing the schedule, I was like week after week three and so I'm gonna stick with that and they're gonna they're gonna lose to SMU and lose to Bama and he'll be out of there after that. Jackson: There's just no room to get going. Like Davis: Yeah. Jackson: i every time you turn a corner if you're Florida State, you get another big game on Davis: Okay. Jackson: your schedule that it's gonna be extremely hard to win. I mean, obviously I I would hope they'll beat New Mexico State. SMU's not a win, or not a sure win at Alabama. Central Arkansas, Virginia, at Louisville, at Miami, Clemson. There's just no room to get any momentum. I think if they maybe started with the back half of the schedule, I mean they get Boston College, Pitt, NC State. those aren't all gimme's, but at least you could maybe win some of those Right. At that time it's too late and the teams Yeah. Yeah. Davis: By that time it's too late. Too late. Norvell's out and and that locker room's checked out. Yeah. I mean their quarterback is the quarterback that Auburn brought in to be their backup quarterback last year in Ashton Daniels. He play he played Jackson: Yeah. Ashton Daniels, yeah. Davis: he played decent, but I mean it's just you know, funny to think about. Jackson: Yeah. I I really think the only hope for Forest State this year was building some momentum. And if I had to see a path for that, it would be maybe winning the first two games. Davis: Was Jameis Winston coming back from the NFL? Jackson: I think they could maybe I mean in a perfect world they could maybe start four and one and then you go into that game at Louisville and hope for a miracle. but I don't I don't see that happening. I'm with you. I think Norvell's out pretty soon and Florida State's gonna be looking for a new coach next year. So Davis: Yep. Sounds like we're both Jackson: All right. Davis: pretty high on Louisville. this was another number that you kinda looked around. and depending on what site was seven and a half or eight and a half. I like the over here regardless. I like Jeff Brahm. got a lot of talent on offense. They went eight and four last year in the regular season. Nine and four total. so I think the schedule's favorable as well after old mess. that'll be that's definitely the best week one game. they can steal that one. I think they hit they hit the the the over pretty comfortably. Jackson: Yeah. I'm with you. I like Brahm. they had a good year last year, went nine and four. I think they can make some noise. They're a good team. They're Davis: Yeah. Jackson: maybe my sleeper team to not win the league. I w I wouldn't go that far, but yeah, I think they can I think they can have success repeating kind of what they did last year. So they do face eleven P four schools. Worth noting but I mean some of these schools are they're P four but I would say some of the Davis: Yeah. Jackson: G five schools are better, some of the P four schools they have on their schedule. Davis: Yep. And Isaac Brown at running back is very, very good and very fast. Jackson: Yeah, and they've worth noting, they've won ten, nine and nine games his first three seasons. So seven and a half I just thought was a little too low f for Jeff Brahm's recent success. Davis: Georgia Tech, you got any strong convictions? I just the way that they ended last year on that one and five or one and four stretch and then lose the Buster Faulkner to Florida and then Haynes King was just incredible. they do bring in Justice Haynes from Michigan by way of Alabama, right? Jackson: Alabama, yeah. Michigan. Alabama, Michigan, Georgia Tech. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. but losing Faulkner, losing Haynes King, kind of a restart year, so I under here for me. Jackson: Yeah, nothing I don't feel strongly about this, but you do bring in a Mendoza quarterback, so that's something worth noting and I don't know if you saw Davis: That's true. Jackson: it, but Signetti said the other day that that was one the one guy that got away from Indiana that he kinda regretted or that he was sad or upset that they weren't able to keep around. So I don't know Davis: Yeah. Jackson: much about Alberto Mendoza but We'll see. We'll see. I like Brent Key. He's had success Davis: Yeah. Jackson: there since he's been there. So I thought six and a half was a little too low for me. I think they're in the upper middle tier of this conference, so I think they can get some Davis: I mean we're gonna find out quick. They go Colorado, Tennessee. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I mean Colorado not a great power four team, but still no gimme. And then Tennessee in Mercedes-Benz dome, I believe. So we'll find out real quick. But they're Jackson: Yeah. Davis: a fun team. They've been a fun team since Brent Keys got there. Jackson: Alright, SMU. We are both over on this. I'm pretty Davis: I I Jackson: strong and you are as well. Davis: I think this is probably gonna be the consensus flag plant if I had to guess. You're strong over. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I'm over, but I would probably say I'm strong over. really like Kevin Jennings and Rhett Lashley. probably one of the better quarterback coaching duos in the ACC. they also avoid Miami. and Clemson, which is nice. So I think there's definitely a path here to hit that over. Jackson: Yeah. You do unfortunately get Notre Dame on the road. I think every single one of these games I would have SMU winning. Except for that Davis: Yeah. Jackson: road trip to South Bend in late November. But I think SMU's gonna be good. I am a believer in Rhett Lashley. I think Kevin Jennings another year in the system is gonna be I think he's gonna take a big step forward. They bring in some help on the defensive line. have decent weapons on offense, so watch out for SMU. I think they're gonna be a team to watch and could give Miami a run for their money at the A C C title in twenty twenty six. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. I guess quickly in North Carolina, I think Belichick will be fired by mid season. Virginia Tech, I have the over here. but I think fair value. so or I think the Jackson: Yeah. Davis: six and a half is probably fair value, like you have Jackson: Yeah. Davis: it. Jackson: I I agree. I think in year one, James Franklin will not turn them around to where they're competing for an ACC title or even you know, a playoff run. But I think making a bowl game's definitely tenable for Virginia Tech and bringing in a lot of that roster over from Penn State, so I think that's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: six and a half, seven's kinda where I think they'll land. Davis: Yeah. I at least in my opinion, the next few teams, Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, definitely or at least Duke and Syracuse have lower totals, probably staying away from there. Don't have strong takes. doesn't look like you do either. Jackson: No. No, not nothing strong on Duke. I mean Duke, obviously you lose your quarterback. That'll be you lose a great quarterback. so I'm not super high on Duke. Syracuse, I think that's just I'm right on the number. Four and a half. Davis: I mean that's I will say I will say you lose your s quarterback, but that's very much reflected in the total. I mean, Duke is a team Jackson: Right. Davis: that won the ACC last year and then immediately goes down to five and a half. So Jackson: Sounds wrong s saying that. I still think that's wrong. Davis: I know. I I keep forgetting about it just because Miami ended up w going to the the playoff. But yeah, maybe we're sleeping Jackson: Yeah. Davis: on them a little bit. That's why I kinda went over 'cause G going from ACC title to under five and a half seems kinda crazy. I know you lose quarterback, but just a just a a funny thing to think about. Jackson: Yeah, I mean I just think I I think they're gonna be in that middle tier. I just think they're gonna be at in the bottom of the middle tier. Just I just think Minsa was able Davis: Yeah. And and and these like Jackson: to get what did they go last year? What was their record? Nine and something? Eight and something? Davis: they went they went nine and five overall but where it was six and two in conference play. So they lost they lost Jackson: And a bunch of Yeah. Davis: their three out of conference games, I believe. Jackson: Yeah, right. So it's like I don't know. I think Minsa kind of the same reason I gave for Oklahoma State at or Messmaker at Oklahoma State, I feel like he kinda got them over the hump in a lot of those games last year and those fifty fifty games against the middle of the pack teams and I they won't have that this year. So I'm Davis: Yeah. Jackson: slight under but no strong opinion Davis: Yeah. Jackson: on dude. Davis: Yeah. I'm good to move to Virginia. I was a a strong over here as a team that went ten and two in the regular season and now Vegas has them at seven and a half. also kinda crazy to think about that they were in the ACC championship last year. they lost Chandler Morris, their quarterback. ended up replacing him with the Missouri transfer, Bo Prabula. I think he's I mean, I think he's pretty good. He's fine. Jackson: Yeah. He's he's solid. Yeah. Davis: but this is one of the most experienced rosters in the league returning from that ACC championship appearance. so you know, for those reasons, I'm I like the the over seven and a half there. Jackson: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, you they may have named a starter already, but Eli Holstein, former Alabama slash Pittsburgh transfer is also Davis: Yeah. Jackson: in a quarterback battle there. Like I said, they could have named a starter. I just haven't have not heard yet. But yeah. I think Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the number r here that I have may eight point one three may be a little higher than what I feel about Virginia, but again This is a this is a schedule thing for me. I think they're gonna win a lot of these games at home. And then non con you have Norfolk State and Delaware, which I know I said don't sleep on Delaware, but I don't think they're they're coming and getting the win on the road. So and then you have North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke. It's just schedule's not super tough. You avoid Miami, you avoid Louisville, some of these other teams that I'm somewhat high on in the ACC they avoid playing them this year. So I think eight wins is definitely possible. And I think the quarterback for Virginia, whether it's Pribular or Holstein, I think I don't think it'll hold them back necessarily. So I think they can get to eight wins. Davis: Yeah. I don't have much for Wake Forest or Boston College, unless you do. Or slight slight over there. Jackson: Yeah. Kinda right on the number there. I think those will be I think Boston College is gonna be bad and I think Wake Forest will be hovering right around that five six win mark. so we can jump on down to Cal. I know both of us are somewhat high on Cal and I think it's probably for for the same reason, so I'll let you roll with Cal first. Davis: I'll let you try to say his name first. Jackson: I'm just gonna stick with JKS. I'll stick with JKS. Davis: Yeah. I think that's that's the real reason that yeah, that's the real reason that we're both kinda high on Cal. last year they started started JKS as a freshman. he was very efficient, put up over thirty four hundred yards, coming back for his second year. I would say that I do have a lot of question marks about that defense. Cal did Jackson: Yeah, I agree. Davis: win games that they shouldn't have last year. So I think that we can see that again this year and they might steal a couple. So give me the over, even with bottom tier defense. Jackson: Yeah, and I think I agree with you. I think the defense is gonna be a question. I trust JKS. I think they're gonna outscore a lot of teams. but you bring in Tosh Lupoy as your head coach and once at Alabama, last year he was at Oregon, who was a defensive guy and I think if there's holes on the defense and you bring in that guy in, I gotta think maybe some of those will get patched. so yeah. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I'm a believer in Gal. I think I think they're gonna be Davis: Yeah. Jackson: one of those stronger bottom I guess bottom middle tier teams. got a good quarterback and a good head coach. So I think it'll be fun to watch it. Davis: And this is a team that won that went seven and five in the regular season. and they had wins against SMU, Louisville, So did have some impressive wins, but did have some bad losses too. So up and down team. but I think they still a couple. So that's why I like the over. And then Stanford's Jackson: All right. Davis: probably the worst team in the power four, so Jackson: Big week zero game that will break down. Davis: Yeah. so Miami or the field? Jackson: I wanna take the field, but I I know it's boring to take Miami and Texas tech, but I Davis: Yeah, give me the field. Give me the field. Give me give Jackson: Really, you'll take the feel? Davis: give me give me the field pretty easily. I mean I I like Miami, but I like the group of Louisville, SMU, better than I liked the next tier in the Big Twelve. Jackson: I agree, Davis: So Jackson: a hundred percent agree with that. Hundred percent agree that I feel stronger about Texas Tech winning the Big Twelve than I do Miami winning the A C C. So Yeah. Davis: Yeah. And and you never know with the ACC. Some teams play eight conference games, some play nine, like like they just make up tiebreakers. There's there's no telling. Jackson: Yeah. My the thing about Miami though is they're just like one hundred percent not losing two ACC games. Like no chance they lose two. You get I mean Notre Dame Davis: Yes. Jackson: is on that schedule, but that's not a ACC game. So there's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: gonna be, like you said, all these tie it has to be from a tiebreaker. I just have a hard time and okay, one thing that I heard on I don't remember if it was a radio or like a Some talk show, but do you know Miami has never won the ACC championship? Since they came over to the ACC. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. They came over from the the Big East in like what, four? Jackson: Somewhere yeah, around there. They've never won so I just gotta feel like Davis: So yeah, I d I didn't know that, but I th Jackson: I mean that's gotta be somewhat in the back of their mind. Davis: Yeah, maybe. Jackson: So I think if they get there they're gonna g they're gonna get the job done and I think they will be there in Charlotte. Davis: Scroll down and we'll go through the the top consensus Yeah. So I think we're I think here it shows Cal, Louisville, Clemson, SMU, Georgia Tech. I think consensus consensusly between us we're probably Louisville, SMU, Cal in that order. Jackson: Yeah, I'd say mem maybe a little higher on SMU, but yeah. I agree I think Clemson's there 'cause I I probably skewed the numbers a little bit. Davis: Clemson Clemson's there because you have very high and you're you're Jackson: Yeah. Davis: weighting my my even number there a lot. and then for unders we we both on the the Norvell getting fired train. Jackson: I think Florida State's the Yeah. Davis: and then Pitt and Syracuse. Jackson: Yep. I just think the worst they got gonna quit. So Davis: All right. Yeah. You wanna look at Notre Dame real quick? Jackson: Yeah, switch over to Notre Dame, although I feel like we shouldn't even cover them. Join a conference. Davis: Yeah, so we're both unders. I mean, eleven and a half is the highest win total. I mean their their schedule is what it is, but I mean eleven and a half is asking them to go perfect and I'm not gonna bet that they go perfect. So give me the under. Jackson: Yeah, it's I mean it's asking them to be like at BYU is not an is not an easy game. Miami is not an easy game, SMU's not an easy game. Now you could argue the rest of that schedule is pretty dang easy. There it's a three-game schedule. I mean look at this is crazy. Rice, horrible, Michigan State, horrible, Purdue, horrible, North Carolina horrible, Stanford horrible, Navy horrible. Boston College horrible and Syracuse horrible. Like what what Davis: SMU, right? Jackson: yeah, yeah, I said SMU sorry, SMU, Miami, and BYU. It's a three game schedule. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: I don't think any of these other teams, except for maybe Wisconsin, is making a bowl game. And I don't know about Navy. But as far as the rest of the Davis: Yeah. Jackson: P four games they have on their schedule, I don't think any of those teams are gonna make a bowl game. So I think that's why it's at Davis: Yeah. Jackson: eleven and a half. I think When you have a three game schedule, you only have three games you've really got to pay attention to that maybe those games Davis: Yeah. Jackson: are more winnable, but it yeah, eleven and a half's high. I I don't think I'm banking on them going twelve and either, so I'd probably kinda stay away from this one. Davis: And and we put them in our top tier. And I think we put in our top tier, not necessarily predicting that they'd go undefeated, but knowing that they're essentially a lock for the playoffs. And like the I think they have the highest odds to make the playoffs, which I would agree with at that point, you know. Jackson: Yeah, a hundred percent. Davis: Yep. Alright. Well sweet. That covers the four Power Four conferences in Notre Dame. hope y'all enjoyed the content and hope that you know we provided some some insight onto some teams. Jackson, I came up with a question. I I don't know if you if you did the game this week, but I got one for you. Jackson: All right, go ahead. I did not do it but I can do it real quick if you want me to, but go ahead. Davis: So Jackson: Wait, wait, wait. Conference. Is it b are you did you give me a transfer portal guy that went was in both? Davis: n I I got one even better. So You know, when we did the SEC conference, it was an SEC theme player. When we did the first episode, it had something to do with the first. With week zero coming up, all my hints have to do with zero. Jackson: Tears. Davis: I'm hoping that this is not too hard. Jackson: You spent you put way too much time into this game. all right. Hit me. Davis: Okay. So has to do with zero. So all the hints have zero in it. one player. Okay. And I think early on I don't know. I I don't know I don't know how you'll do on this one. In the in the past I've kinda been able to tell the difficulty, but I have no idea what this one. All right. Jackson: So you're you're gonna give me a conference, nothing? Davis: zero. Jackson: What? Davis: Ready? I received Jackson: Go ahead. Davis: zero power five scholarships offers coming out of high school. Jackson: Cam Ward. Davis: Yeah. That that that's probably true, but that's not the player. I had zero college pass attempts before starting my first college game as a true freshman walk-on. Jackson: Started true freshman walk on. Davis: So like he had zero pass attempts because he was Jackson: Yeah. Davis: a true freshman walk on, but I had to get the zero in there somewhere. Jackson: Even no. don't even know a true like I can't even think of a walk line. Can you give me a year? Like some kind of year? Davis: I it's about to get easier. You ready for hit three? Jackson: Let me let me take ten seconds, see if I can think of a walk. is it It's on Diego Pavia, is it? Davis: No, not Diego Fabio. All right. Once I transferred to my new school and became the starting quarterback, I finished zero seasons outside the top four in Heisman voting. So once he transferred and became the starter, he finished in the top four in Heisman voting in in all three seasons. Jackson: Baker Mayfield. Davis: There you go. All right. Jackson: Okay, when when when you said the second hint, I was thinking like Tex A and Tech C and For some reason Tex A kept popping into my head because Davis: Yeah. I forgot that you were a Tampa Bay guy, so then as soon as I ran the f read the first hint, I was like, he's gonna know this. Jackson: Yeah, I can't believe that wasn't my first you know why I said Cam Ward? 'Cause we just watched c the new season at quarterback. It's Cam Ward, Baker Davis: yeah. Jackson: Mayfield, and gosh. Flacco. It's pretty good. And I think I'm leaving somebody out. Davis: I haven't watched it. I heard Flaca's fun. Jackson: Jaden Daniels. Davis: it's is that I guess it's was filmed before all his like number It's from last year, right? Yeah. All right. Jackson: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Davis: My hint number four was in my final college season, my team finished the conference play with zero losses and made the college football playoff. That was Oklahoma. And then after winning the Heisman Trophy. There were zero player players selected ahead of me in the NFL draft. Jackson: You spent a lot of time on that, Davis. Davis: Yeah, just I like the game and you you're not even gonna contribute. It's just a slap in Jackson: Yeah, there was Davis: my face, man. Jackson: You mean to c you mean to do one real quick? Davis: No, it's good. Jackson: Dude, I'm gonna do one real quick. I got a player already. Davis: What theme are you doing? Jackson: Okay, this one's not bad. Davis: There's probably not a zero theme that you can do. That Jackson: No, this is has nothing to do with zero theme. I just picked one this is a big twelve Davis: Okay. Jackson: player. Ready? Davis: All right, let's hear it. Jackson: Alright, hint one. I played college football for a big twelve program and earned unanimous All American honors before entering the NFL. Davis: Tes bright. Jackson: Alright, that'll do it for today's podcast. we'll be back soon with Davis: Let's go. Jackson: with week zero preview and some season long picks, awards, stuff like that. So Davis, it's been a pleasure. See ya next time. Davis: Yeah. Yeah, I'm gonna go buy a lottery ticket. Jackson: You should. That was that was a pretty good guess. I almost got yours on the first guess. That was probably my next guess with Baker Mayfield if I could have thought of him, but anyway. Davis: Yeah, what a what a cut of show that. Jackson: All right. See ya. Davis: All right. So