Latest / PlanetGeo: The Geology Podcast / The Feeling of Discovery with Prof. Michael Mann (GeoShort)

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The Feeling of Discovery with Prof. Michael Mann (GeoShort) · PlanetGeo: The Geology Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Planet Geo, the podcast where we talk about our amazing planet, how it works, and why it matters to you.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, in today's Geo Short, we are pleased to give you a little preview to our interview with Professor Michael Mann, author of a recently published book called The New Climate War.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: This is just a short excerpt from our interview with Professor Mann, and we discuss the feeling of scientific discovery and the unique trajectory of his very prolific career.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: Tune in next week for the full interview.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get to it.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Professor Mann.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: So in this geo short, we just want to focus on the sense of discovery that you've had throughout your career, and you are probably most well known for and famous for the discovery of the what is so-called hockey stick chart, the paper that you published in 1999 where you showed this exponential increase in global atmospheric CO2 and temperature.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: So I just want to get a sense from a scientist to scientist perspective.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: You know, what was the sense of discovery when you were writing that paper when you're looking at the data set?
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: How did you know how important it was going to be for your career?
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you know, it's odd because what drove that research wasn't really questions about climate change.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: We were interested in natural climate variability and how we could document that with these um paleo records.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: So it was the science that led us to this inescapable conclusion that, you know, that our work really did have implications for the climate change debate.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: And I would say that it was a mix of exhilaration and apprehension when I realized that because I was familiar enough with sort of the history of the science to know that other scientists who had sort of propelled themselves into the center of the climate change debate often were in for a rough time.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I guess that was uh prophetic uh because just as scientists before me, whose science had played an important role in the public domain had been attacked, I would be attacked for decades.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I was looking to discredit this single curve that we published two decades ago.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, I think you just answered the question, but maybe you can put a timestamp on it.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: But when did the evidence for you make you know for sure climate change was real?
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's a great question.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: Um it was, you know, in 1995 was when the IPCC, with their second assessment report, uh, for the first time concluded that there was a discernible human influence on the climate.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: But that was a very conservative uh report.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um the IPCC assessments are conservative assessments because they reflect the consensus among a large number of scientists.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: I would argue that it was clear to some scientists much early.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: In 1989, James Hansen, uh former director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, famous climate scientist, testified to the U.S.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Senate that climate change was here.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: And that was back in 1989.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: He was convinced by the evidence.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: When I switched into climate uh science in the late 80s and early 90s, my PhD advisor was a bit of a skeptic.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: He wasn't yet convinced that the evidence was in.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, he was a true skeptic.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, skepticism is a good thing in science, as long as it's even-handed and it's honest.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: And he was just not convinced that the evidence was in yet.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: And that was a reasonable position back then in the early 1990s, based on the evidence that was available.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: But I can tell you that in an article that we collaborated on with a former student of his, I still remember, um, we ended up looking at these maps of each decade from the 20th century, color maps.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: And back at the time, it it was like expensive and hard to get color printout.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you had to wait for the color print.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: So it was like really exciting when you got these color, you know, printouts.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: And we had this color-coded, these maps of global temperatures for each decade.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: And you'd look at 1940s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, whoa.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and we it was this sort of cathartic moment where we were putting this these graphs together for this article we were writing, and we were all just stunned by how remarkable the shift in colors was um in the 1980s.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I would say that's the moment when both Barry and I we had that um aha moment.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah, this this stuff is really getting real, I guess.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_02: It was you know, Mike, that's amazing.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_02: You have lived the whole life really of climate science, right?
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_02: This highlights how young this field, how much we've learned in such a short period of time.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: In a sense, but Joseph Fourier in the teens knew that there was a greenhouse effect.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: That's true.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that is true.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: So, real quick, just to end on, Mike, you kind of alluded to the sort of abuse that's been hurled your way because of this hockey stick chart, basically, in 1999.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: Is there anything you would do differently in your career in regards to kind of communication of climate science?
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's a great question.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I've and I've thought about that.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's it's that sort of the terminator.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Like, could I go back in time?
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: And exactly.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, I have thought about that before.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: And where I come down is, you know, there are other choices I could have made that would have made me happier by the standards that I had set at the time.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Because I just wanted to do interesting science.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: But now, based on where I am, I wouldn't give it up because even though it's not what I signed up for, it wasn't what I was looking to do with my life, I've found myself in a position to influence this conversation about the greatest challenge that we face as a civilization.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I feel truly privileged to be there.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: So I just got chills.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: I just got chills.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: That's super cool.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thanks.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it isn't what I signed up for, but yeah, I wouldn't give it up for anything.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and you know, with all the attacks and all the bad stuff I've had to endure, it's worth it because I've gotten to participate in this conversation.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_02: That's a great answer, Dr.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_02: Man.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that I think that's a wrap for this Geo Short.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, thanks again for joining us.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks, guys.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: All right, and that's a wrap.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for joining the Geo Short, and tune in next week for the full interview.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: If you're interested in checking out his book, it's called The New Climate War, and you can get it anywhere books are sold.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: Take care.