Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Transcript

NFL Week 16 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: There's no better place to bet the action than on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: FanDuel Sports Book during the football season. They're America's number
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: one sports book with an easy to use app that's
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: safe and secure, and when I win, I get paid
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: out in as little as two hours. And this season,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: fandel Sports Book is making betting easy for everyone with
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: great promos like risk free bets, enhanced odds markets, same
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: game parlays, and more. So if you're new, just download
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started and sign
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you. You You must be twenty one or older and president
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Gambling problem called one eight hundred next
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: step or text next step to five two in Arizona
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: one eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: hundred ambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r g
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia one eight seven zero
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: seven for confidential help. In Michigan called the Tennessee Red
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Line at one eight eight eight nine, or visit one
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Chad Mellman, sh Content Officer of the Action Network. It
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: is Thursday. It is time for me in my BFF,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: my companion Mike and Padre Professional Better Sigmon Hunter to
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: get into it to lock it down. We'll go through
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: sharp calls, We'll go through the money line, Parlay, will
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: go through our big balls better the week, we will
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: nail down our five plays that we liked the most
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: or at least get pretty close. Reminder that only took
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: us four months to do it. But you can follow
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: our five favorite plays in the Action Network gap downloaded
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: for free. Follow go to the follow tab on the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: bottom of the navigation the Faves five. The Faves five
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: follow that. Starting this Sunday, It's where we will put
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: our picks in. We usually do it in the eleven
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: thirty to twelve range. Simon Hunter, So buddy, Merry Christmas,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Happy Holidays, all the above. If you're not going to
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: see the video for this, Simon is wearing a very
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: festive Philadelphia Eagles branded Santa had I was gonna ask you,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: do you feel in the mood this year? It's differently.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I feel like because the climate change, we don't get
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: any snow anymore, but I don't know what the lights around.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I still feel a little bit in the move, but
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: it's just different with those snow. Definitely, it's a little
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: different without the snow, without the gray skies, without sort
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: of the feeling of hunkering down. And to be honest, personally,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: COVID is wreaking havoc. With all the plans that our
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: family had for the holidays and what we were going
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: to do, and between that and my kid breaking his
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: leg and having a hard time traveling, it's gonna be weird.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I mean I I might not be able to see
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: my parents either because of COVID stuff. So it's definitely
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be a weird holiday. But I can get boosted,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: get boosted, do what we can take horse medicine, do
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: whatever you gotta do. Don't take horse medicine. Don't listen
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: to Simon. One thing that you should listen to Simon about.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: We've said this all season long, and we're going to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: get into everything, But there is something very Betty specific
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: that is happening in the sports universe that I think
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: we should talk about. I think the NFL has a
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: real issue on its hand, and we've said this all year.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: These games, much of the year have been unwatchable because
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: the officiating has been so inconsistent, between the holding calls,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: the quarterback, the roughing, the pastor calls, the d p
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I calls, the personal fouls. For years, it didn't matter
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: from a gambling perspective. The NFL didn't have to care
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: about it because they did not embrace gambling. They actually
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: vehetnmainly opposed it. So if gambler were complaining about the
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: inconsistency of the calls and the impact was having on
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: the games, the NFL could basically say, fuck you. Now.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: The NFL is in bed with gambling. There is no
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: there is no missing nous, there is no hiding behind
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: the curtain. The NFL embraces gambling. They need more transparency
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: and officiating. They need better officiating, They need more consistent officiating.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: The players know it. Robert Quinn the other night, talking
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: about the Bears in that game against the Vikings, the
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: inconsistency with some of the calls. We saw it again
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: in the Seahawks Rams game that had a very real
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: impact on the point spread for betters. I think this
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: is a very serious issue for the NFL. It is
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: going to become more of an issue as more states
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: legalized betting. They've got to figure something out when it
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: comes to officiating and how it's impacting these games from
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: a betting point of view. A lot of people complained.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: They said it was taking too long. The'm reviewing the
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: plays and that's why they want to get rid of
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: the past interference thing. To BSX, use if a game
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: takes five minutes longer, don't you just wanted to be
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: a fair playing field where if If that's what it
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: takes to get these things right, that's what it takes
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of things. Now they just
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: get called right down from New York, Like they don't
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: even stop TV, they touch their ear, they get a
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: phone call in. They said they only overturn the p
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I calls. That's more than we have right now. That's
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: the difference. It's like, would you really have zero? Would
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: you have Like I was happy with whatever they were
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: giving us. The fact that they would even review it.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: To me, was was a good deal they got got
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: rid of after one year because they didn't like getting
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: fans didn't like it. But I do see a shift coming.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Sports pult're going into these stadiums at this point, teams
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: are getting sponsored by different gambling groups. So like, because
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: again the league's biggest issue is old owners and these
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: people are stubborn. They're getting their money. What do they
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: care that. That's the hardest part about this is like
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: if we're trying to update things and change things, they
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: just don't care. If their bottom line they're still making money,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: why do they care. But yeah, as as like you
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: just said, as a gambler, that Seahawks game was atrocious.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: It was one of those where I instantly regretta have
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: to be money on it on these a night. So
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: it's hard as a gambler. But at the same time,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: like you just said, it's it's what we have to
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: deal with, So I just have to keep dealing with it.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: The NFL is going to have to sort of come
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: to Jesus on this because it's a real issue for fans,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: it's a real issue for gamblers. It's going to continue
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: to be an issue. But yeah, everyone has to talk
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: to the media after a football game except the refs,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: and I'm all get that. I get they try to
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: protect them, keep them safe. I mean, they have to
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: be accountable. Their biggest concern has always been integrity with
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: the product. But they're worried about games being fixed. That's
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: not the issue. The integrity and the product comes down
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: to the fact when the people in the stripes are
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: impacting the game in ways that have real monetary impact
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: on the fans. And if you're gonna be in the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: betting business, you gotta have integrity across the board. It
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: can't just be about not having games fixed. It's got
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: to be about consistency with the officiating because the officials
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: can control the game. You can't get into the red zone.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: You can't get a third down without thinking, as a fan,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: on this stop, you're gonna get fucked. You just can't
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: felt that way all year, Simon. Before we get to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: the slate, before we nail it down, let's get to
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: some sharp cuss Hello, who's there, I'm talking somebody kind
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: of expected to speak with the pro calls. It did
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: take some flak for saying that I rage bet On Saturday.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: That wasn't very pro like of me. I knew what
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I was doing. I wasn't gonna control in the sense
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: that I believed in my numbers and I was all
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: in on the Colts um in that matchup. I never
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: rolled money over And that was just very joe public
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: of me to take all my winnings from a college game.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Just take all of it right away and put it
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: onto the next game. So that that's fair that criticism.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I'll take that heat. Had a lot of guys talking
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: to me about that. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: going to say about that, little dude. I wondered if
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: that was going to be the case. You're not an
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: emotional guy like that. Never, but like I was just
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: so pissed from just because we nailed that Chargers game
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: and then we we got nothing from it. That's that's
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: just the worst feeling. This week was pretty simple. A
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: lot of the calls I got pros roll over Tennessee.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: We've seen it now. We told you to take that
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: three and a half. It's down to three now, that's
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: not shocking. That's just a key number. If this number
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: shifted to two, I might start thinking forty Niners. But
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the fact that it's still at three, I just keep
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I'll keep leaning towards this Tennessee team. Um, it sucks
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: you didn't get the three and a half, but you
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: never now before kickoff it could get back to that.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: And we saw it last week with the Chargers. They
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: dip down to three. It kept going back and forth.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Um that that that with all the games I expected
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: the call from and staying with Arizona Cardinals, I knew
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that every pro would be aligned on this one. This
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: is just a pro pro game. The pros will come
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: in on on Arizona. I know a couple of pros
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: they got maybe you know, you're gonna look a headline.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: The most you can get down as a thousand, like
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: any book, the most they're gonna take as a thousand. Um,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys got the plus four on the
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Colts last week. Now they're coming back on the other
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: side taking the one with the Arizona. That's a nice
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: little middle spot. But the more I talked to the guys,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the more it just seems like this is just a
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: trap spot for this Colts team. So, I mean, people
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: could see my lack of confidence in the Arizona pick.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Hearing so many other pros are on Arizona makes me
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: feel a little better. Arizonas down to minus one, by
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the way, I mean, I've seen it down to half
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: a point at certain books. We talked about the I
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: it was a four or FROs three, that those are
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: key numbers. We would have probably taken the Colts. There
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: the fact that it's down to this point that what
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: we think is a favorable line towards Arizona team, it's
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: shifted too much. It's shocking the pros. Like Cincinnati Bengals.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not letting them burn me again. They talked me
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: off the Ravens against the Browns and they shifted my
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: position to that Browns team, and I felt like shit
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: about it the whole time. And of course we didn't
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: cover that number. They're they're they're the same reasons. Let's again.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: They just keep saying the Ravens can't keep it up.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: It's they're gonna come back to the meeting. They just
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: can't covering these close games and coming back like it's
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: back to back weeks. If at two straight weeks they
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: have come back from what was it to three, the
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Browns are winning and then we had a thirty one
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: seventeen lead by the Green Bay and they covered. So
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: we're probably sucking up by finally getting off fading this
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Ravens team. But it's up to three now, so I'm
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna end up taking that number. I'll go
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: against the professionals in that sense. And the last one
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: was when we talked about we love the Dolphins. We
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: knew the pros are gonna love that one. That number.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna get back to three and
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: a half by kick off. I could just see the
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: public coming in New Orleans. We have Sean Payton back.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: People will be feeling good again. They're coming off their
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: biggest win here late in the season, shutting out Tom Brady.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Nothing's changed. Every every probably talked to Isa, same thing.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: We feel like Miami played like ship against the Jets.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: The old Miami loses that game against the Jets last week,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: all right, they throw that pick six to it. There's
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: a pick six. The Jets usually win that game. They
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: won it, and that's again, that's another reason I'm getting
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: more confident in this um Miami team. I'm hoping it
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: gets back to three and a half. I do hope
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: the public bets a bat because that's such a key
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: number to me to get that three a half. So
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I still love it at three with the Dolphins, but
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: we're hoping it gets back to three and a half.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I did better at three. The bets I've made so
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: far Buffalo plus two and a half, Carolina plus ten
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and a half, Miami plus three. So gross, so gross,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: All of it is gross. Let's go through all of
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: the games that you mentioned a couple of them. Let's
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: go through all the games that we were sort of
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: narrowing down for our five and see if we can
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: sort of come to consensus, and then we will probably
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: keep a little some of them in our back pocket
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: for Sunday morning. We will talk about them on our show.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: We talked about them after our show Convinced Me on
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: at Action Network h Q at eleven am Eastern. Reminder,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: because people have questions about this in our feedback segment,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: feedback is a gift. Convinced Me is not a podcast.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Convinced Me is a show that uh Simon Hunter, Sean Croner,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, a cavalcade of superstar experts do on Sunday
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: mornings eleven A and Eastern on Action Network HQ. Those
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: three try to convince me the prop deside the total
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I should take. Check it out on Twitter or the
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Let's talk about the Bills. In
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: the past. You talked about the Titans a little bit.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: That's not going to be one of our best five.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: People wanted me to make that our big balls bet,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: but we already did a big balls bet last Thursday.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: We'll save our big balls bet for this weekend. Part
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: of me feels like, if you're not going to get
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the Titans at three and a half, I might just
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: take him on the money line. I would still take
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: the three again. I told you I I think one
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: of the most underrated key numbers is to um this
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: seasons next. We've just seen a shift with these extra
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: points differently like that weird funky numbers. I mean, hell,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: what was that Our boys Stucky got a shot from
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: s v P last night about that Army beat Hidden
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Army minus three. Army wins by two. So it's um.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: It's been come a very key number, especially in these
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: these big games. Thank you so much. Exciting finishing for worth.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Coach Monk and guys get their first win against the
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: power of five opponent in four years. A couple of
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: late scores, they're dramatic. Sorry stucky, Welcome to Sports Center
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: from d C. I've Scott fan pill. So let's talk
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: about the Bills. Let's two and a half of the Pats.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Still I bet it two and a half. Still like it?
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: It's ugly. I think it's the right side. Yeah, it
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: is interesting. I did see a touch three at a
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: couple of books that are very respected, which means that
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: some pro money did come in on this new England team.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: On paper, I get what people are seeing with mac.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: He is very efficient and what he does, the way
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: they run that offense through him is very efficient. They
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: know what their strengths, so they know what their weaknesses are.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Teams have figured out what he does well. One of
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: his biggest strengths are in the middle of the field.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: He's very good at reading where players are, the way
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: that they're moving, and he can fit balls into pretty
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: tough holes or he's really get a lodged over the defense.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: They don't want to be a passing team though, knowing
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: them and we've seen that that's that's not something they
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: want to be. And with this Buffalo Bills team, the
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: second time around, they're gonna be able to take advantage
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: of making max weaknesses really stand out. I remember, what
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: was it a week ago, two weeks ago, this line
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: might have been minus one or minus three and a
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: half for the Bills before they played each other. They
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: dropped that win. I mean, the Bill should have won
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: seventeen whenever it would have been, the Bill should have
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: won that game. Again, I thought New England was the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: right side. They're probably gonna cover that one. But I
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: do think the Bills they had all the opportunities to
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: win that game. This if they did win that game,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: what would this line bed Probably minus one, minus two
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: for the Bills because they won the division last year.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: So when I put this in the fact that my
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: line made this a pick and it kind of made
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: it more slant towards the Bills, it's not surprising at
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: all putting this out there just because they know what
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: the pub was gonna do this line. So I like
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the different advantages that I already had towards the Bills,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: But the biggest one is just gonna be it's time.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Like this Bills team, they're a playoff team. They have
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: all the hype. This is it, Like the Bills, Are
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: you really gonna turn back into what you guys had
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: been for twenty years before Tom Brady dominated these teams?
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Like this just feels like such a big moment for
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: this Bills team, where the Patriots have always been the
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: hurdle for them, this is their opportunity to overcoming We're
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: getting plus number. I mean again, if you can get
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: plus three, I don't know how you don't take the
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Bills with this, So we could be walking to a trap.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I've had a couple, Like I told you, I talked
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: to a couple of pros. They're on the Patriots. But
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to me, I have to trust that the more veteran team,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the more experience with Josh Allen, it's gonna be a
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: factor in a late December game. So I was wavering
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: and making this one of our five. But the more
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: like I've looked at it, it feels like we kind
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: of have to. Like I've it feels like the most
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: balanced number this week. But like again, we're not getting
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: crazy value, only getting two points of value, but the
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: fact that it's a two and a half three, that's
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: again a key number. So it makes me want to
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: take that Bills team. I have no issues with this pick.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: I love it. I love the Bills in this spot.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is not the kind of coaching
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: mismatch that you would normally see with a Belishick team.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: This second time they're playing a team they just beat.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Sean Derman has proven to be a really good coach,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: His staff has proven to be really thoughtful. It's a
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: fascinating matchup. There's a lot of things I'm gonna try
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: to tweak and update with my my system this up
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: coming off season, but the biggest will definitely be at
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the variance of how many coaches go for Don forth down.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: It's just something we can't really account for right now
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: because it's just so it's just it's crazy. I mean,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: it's the worrying part about taking these high risk teams.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: It feels to me like this should probably be our
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week. Really, I'm with you on it.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, it does. It takes balls. I mean, I'm
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: honestly yeah. Because again we're taking the Bills on the
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: road against Belichick. This is where Belichick drives exactly. And
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: we've seen some of your buddies, some of the pros
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: taking the Patriots. Now it's split. It's literally That's why
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know for everything to get back to the three,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: because I think the pros will just keep buying it down.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Well I hope we don't, because then I'll just feel
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: bad that I got two and a half. Again, my friend,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: let's it's true. That's what I did with the Colts,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: and I didn't do it in a rageway. I did
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: it in an emotional, thoughtful way. Let's talk about the
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Colts and the Cardinals. I love the Cardinals at one
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: and a half. Why don't I love them at one? Yeah?
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Nothing changed. Um. The funniest thing is hearing people complain
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: about it, saying again, I'm with Matt Mitchell. We we
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: love to talk shit about Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury. I do
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: think he's one of more overrated coaches in football. I
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: just have to go off not just instincts, but all
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: the other pros that have come before me that I've
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: seen this exact game, this position, every time, we know
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: what happens here. The Colts have a letdown game, the
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Cardinals have a huge bounce back game. It's just I
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: feel like with football, you kind of see these rhythms
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: and if the Cardinals don't. If I'm a person as
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: a future on the Cardinals, you can let it on fire.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: It's done because this is a not I must win,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: but as close as you can get to it. Like
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: they're they're losing hand on their their division, which they
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: had just been leading all season. They've been winning big
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: games with backup we're back in Cole McCoy, and now
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: they're dropping to the last three there. Everyone's everyone's panicking. Honestly.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: People are saying that Kyler's hurt. I don't know about that.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: I think it's the same thing that we the team
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: with Dak. These guys come back from injury and the
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: rhythms just off. You lose that little bit of rhythm,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit of like you're in such a good
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: rhythm with your receivers and everything else on the team
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: that you're just playing not really thinking college just looks
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: like he's overthinking. Takeaway Hopkins as well. That's that's honestly,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: why I've seen this number kind of come down more so,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: um not just the fact that Cardinals haven't played well.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: So to me, if if you're if you're thinking all
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: these reasons why you should be taking colds. That should
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: be the sirens going off about why you want to
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: take the Cardinals, because the bookmakers know what they're doing
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: here there. They're giving you a great number. Again, you
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: can get the culture and out plus one ten, plus
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: one twenty the money line. Everyone's doing it. That's one
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: of the biggest money line bets this week. So to me,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: this is a classic pros versus shows. Everyone's gonna have
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: the Colts teased up everyone. So I hate it because,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: like we said, we like to fade Arizona come November December.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: But in this position, this is a pro number. No
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: matter what, this is gonna be one of our five.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: We are heading into the holiday season with courage and conviction.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Definitely a lot of courage this week. Like the games
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: we're talking about are just they're gross. When you like
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: you bet them, you're just it's not it's uncomfortable because
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: you're gonna go against your gut instinct of what you've watched,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: but you have to trust the numbers. A Cliff Kingsbury
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Christmas cover. The holidays are here and Fandal Sports Book
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: has a gift for all new customers. No, not a
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: new pair of slippers. We're talking about thirty to one
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: odds on any Christmas Day NBA or NFL g game.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: To sign up for sports book and bet on any
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: team to win any of the seven marquee matchups taking
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: place on Christmas, and if your bet wins, you'll be
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: paid out thirty times your wager. That's right, you can
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: turn a five dollar bet into a hundred and fifty
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: bucks This Christmas night. I'm back in the Arizona Cardinals
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: against the Colts. There's no better place to bet on
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Christmas Day than on America's number one sports book. It's
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: simple and easy to use the app with great new
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: offers every day, and when I win, FanDuel will pay
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: you your winnings in as little as two hours. Don't
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: miss your chance to win a hundred and fifty bucks
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: on a five dollar bet. Sign up with promo code
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Favorites to place your first FanDuel sports Book wager on
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: any NBA or NFL Christmas Day game for exclusive thirty
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: to one odds our gift to all new customers. Download
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: FanDuel sports Book today with promo code Favorites. You must
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: be one and older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut. Indiana, Michigan,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. New users only
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: ten dollar first deposit required, must wager in designated offer market.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Max bonus a hundred and fifty dollars bonus for Tennessee
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: users is fulfilled in site credit within seventy two hours
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: and expires fourteen days after receipt. Restrictions apply see full
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling problem called
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred next step or text next step to
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: five three three four two in Arizona one eight seven
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred gambler or
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: visit FanDuel dot com slash r G in Colorado, Indiana,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Virginia one eight hundred seven zero seven one
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: one seven for confidential help. In Michigan, the Tennessee red
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: line is one eight hundred eight eight nine eight nine.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Visit www dot one eight hundred gambler dot net. In
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: West Virginia, Falcons and the Lions, the line was at
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: seven before this past week. The look aheadline went down
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: to four, now back up to six. Six is as
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: much of a key number as seven. So if you're
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: getting it at like, you're not like, you're not losing
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: that much if you don't get it at four, because
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: five is a dead number. So the Falcons beat bad teams.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: The Lions have no secondary. We don't know what's going
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: on with Jared Golf. They're coming off a huge win,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the Falcons coming off a huge loss, the Falcons at home.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: This feels like the right spot to invest in the Falcons,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: even at six and again we talked about that's why
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: we liked so much of five and a half because
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: six is a key number. You're not losing much taking
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: the six. Again, worst case do you end up with
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: a push, which I know people hate pushes. I always
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: kind of pushes a win, So I don't love that
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not getting updates on golf Again, I'd feel more
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: comfortable with him out just because we've seen it where
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: not that he's got confidence, but he does. Like on
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: these third downs when early in the year it was
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: third and ten, it's over the guys either throwing a
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: pick six or they're punching. We've seen the last couple
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: of weeks he's really got more comfortable of that team
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: he's got definitely more confidence in himself. So um props
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: of golf coming in this year. I thought he was
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a one and done. He's not good,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: he can't be coached up. But he's really taking the
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: identity of Campbell. He's really toughened up this shoot. So
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: it'll be interesting what they do with the top pick.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I'm a fan of that team, I'm
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: hoping they take a quarterback. But camp Campbell's a crazy dude.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I could see him believing in golf and giving him
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: another year. They're not taking a quarterback. They're taking their
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: taking Aidan Hutchinson at number one, number two. There's not
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be a quarterback taken until the middle of the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: first round. This is not a take a type quarterback
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: in the top ten draft. Guarantee. We can save this
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: guarantee a quarterback with taking on the top ten. If
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a quarterback doesn't going to top ten, I give my
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: word to this show, I will retire. I would disappear
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: from all of your lives. Let's not be dramatic. I'm
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: just saying that was an awful take by you. I mean,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I it's not a quarterback then go top ten e
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: J manual. Yeah, and this could be that draft. I'm
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: telling you right now, you're gonna spend top ten capital
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: on any picket, and like there's some good arms this year. Look,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: we can agree to disagree and come May we'll know
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have fun with the draft. I can tell
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have fun with it. One of us is wrong.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: You know who's wrong. But I watched No College so
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: like I don't know ship again, I watched it at
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: the quar of Eye on Saturday. So off top mat,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I can think of like three different quarterbacks that are
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: like good prospects, are tall, and they got a strong arm.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's what these gms look for, Chad. So
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: the Falcons were lining them up as a potential top five.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: It's about what the number weekend. How much pain we're
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: willing to intake because we know we're it's gonna come Sunday,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be down ten points. I mean, you're gonna
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: textis are in God damn every time we do this
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: with the Falcons. But we have to. It's it's too
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: easy not to fade this Detroit team after a win
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: like they just had and the fact that this Falcons team,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: just like you said, they beat up on bad teams.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: They've done it all year. We are one put in
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the Panthers plus ten and a half against the Bucks.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: It's a foxhole bet. Everything is saying, take this good
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: secondary against a quarterback who has struggled on the road,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: who is missing one of his most sure handed receivers.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: There are questions about Mike Evans availability, Leonard Fournett will
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: not be playing. Come on, are we professionals or not? Yeah? No, no,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: we have to do it. Let's go gam Newton one
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: and eleven his last twelve starts against the spread for
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers. I mean, I get you might get
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald. It's all bad people like you're gonna try
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: to look up reasons to take Carolina. Chad basically late
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: it out for you. If you go on the numbers,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: you're going on to the paper, you're looking for trends.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: It's all gonna point towards this Bucks team. But for us,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: when we're looking at the numbers, we look at the data,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: we knew this number is inflated. We know it's gonna
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: keep getting inflated because the public is gonna come in
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: so even it's your team. So of all the games
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: you're betting this week, I'm I'm with you. This is
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: probably my least favorite bet and it's probably the second
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: most money I have on a game, and I hate it.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I hate that to keep bending it, but I keep doing.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: They moved it all up to twelve one point. What
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: am I supposed to do? I have to keep betting
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: that if they moved it up there. I've seen you
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: drop all the way down down to ten ten and
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: a half a certain book. So we have to do it.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: You have to take this North Carolina. And so it's
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: like what you had just said, We're not ben On
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: camneywore been on this defense. Listen. I didn't get it
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: a twelve. I got it a ten and a half
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: because I'm not, you know, up twenty four hours a
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: day seven so you're not up at three am looking
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: for the best line. And we know the books will
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: move it the half point that everybody wants when everybody
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: except for Simon his Runner and a hundred other professional
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: betters are awake pretty much. But again, tends a key number.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Though you can get it a ten or above ten,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: you take it. We saw that Washington football game against
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: the Eagles, number six and a half. What was it
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: one o'clock in the afternoon. By kickoff, it went all
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: up to ten. Game lands ten. I mean the bookmakers,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: they know what they're doing. They know exactly what they're
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: doing a couple of their games to scratch off here.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: You loved the Rams on Tuesday. They were your Simon
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: says better the week because of the number it was
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: that two and a half. I kind of messed up
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: on that one and went up to three. It came
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: right back down to two and a half. So I'm
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: with the public. I said that before when I picked this,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be with a BLI I knew the professionals
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Vikings. It was the Vikings at home.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: As a dog usually will always be all over that spot.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: I just like the way that the Rams match up
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: for this with this team. Um, the Vikings giveing some
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: of those explosive plays in the secondary. That's all the
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Rams do. That's the Rams offense. It's Cooper Cup down
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the field for twenty yards and maybe every now and
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: then Dan Jefferson or O'Dell and break a big one.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: That's just we've seen what they are now, the Rams,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: that's the style they're running. Um. To me, it matches
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: up all this Vikings team. So it's rare again that
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: I'm on public side, But when you do get different
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: little matchups like that and you're not, like, again, if
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: this was four and a half, yeah, I would start
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: looking at the Vikings. But to me, I made this
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: number three and a half. I still think you're gonna
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: point the value on this RAMS team. I don't want
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: to put it in the contest. I get it. It's
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: a little too due public for you little public. You
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: just mentioned the Bengal the Bengals Ravens. That was a
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: sharp call. Wise, guys are loving the Bengals and you're
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: kind of the Ravens here. Yeah, those guys. We'll keep
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: chasing that dream. Again, this is not gonna be in
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: our contest because the Ravens has just been burning us
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: never I mean, so, I'm just gonna take the value.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: They play close games. This is a divisional matchup. Late
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: in the year. I told people in early December, I
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: take the dog, I take the under, not even some
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: of these divisional games. That's just what I'm gonna do.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: It's been working I mean that we've already seen it
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: this since the calendar's turn, it's been a lot of
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: under his divisionally, it's been a lot of dogs divisionally.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: So I'm waiting, especially if I'm gonna put more on it.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: I kind of do wanted to be Lamar again. I
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: love what this backup has done. I watched the film.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: He literally was staring down. If it wasn't Andrews, it
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: was Hollywood Brown, and that was it. He would do
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: two reads and then then you take off. So I
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: love it. I love his athleticism, but I would just
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: feel better with Lamar coming back. So I'm taking the
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: three down and hoping that Lamar comes back to really
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: give you the bat because this line, if he does
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: come back, what do you think it drops down to one?
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: That's what I assume you would dropped too. So I
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: do think you're getting good value on it. Two games
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: that we gotta talk about. You loved on Tuesday. You
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: fucking loved the chiefs Mine is nine and a half.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised that you have not gotten calls from the
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: wise guy community and that they were not part of
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: your sharp calls because the money has come all the
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: way in on the Steelers. It's now down to seven
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's COVID ship. I mean, if there's
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: no Tyreek Hill, if there's no Travis Kelsey, Yeah, I'm
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: with you, I get it. Why would like Pittsburgh. That's
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: probably the right side. So like, that's why COVID sucks.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: We literally did the show and then a minute after
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: we finished that breaking that's right, we slacked right after that. Yeah,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: so again I I love the Chiefs. This was I
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: told people too, I love the under. This was like
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: a smash spot. Now the under has come way down
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: again because the Hill might be out, Kelsey might be out.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: What are the Chiefs without them there? There are going
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: to be the two of the best what ten weapons
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: in all football offensively? So it's it sucks. That's we're
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: trying to deal here with COVID. So the instincts in
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: me say, the bookmakers know what then they're doing the
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: fact that in Drop It Blow six and a half,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: that should be all you need to know if you're
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: if you're about in Pittsburgh. What a gift they're giving
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: you seven and a half and there's no Hill. No
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Kelsey stinks. That's when this line stunk from the get go.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Still like the Chiefs, you're just getting a better number
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: at this point. Well, unfortunately I had in Scoot Roulette
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs Mine is nine and a half and you
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: had Miami plus three. Do I get some kind of
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: relief in scooch Roulette with now that we know, I'll
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: still take the Chiefs, But can I get him at
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: seven and a half instead of at nine and a half.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: I'll allow it just because I'm smacking you around this year, child,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: I thought you're gonna say you'll allow it because we're
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: like brothers. In the end. You only see you only
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: want what's best for me. That is true, all right.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: I think we keep an eye on the Chiefs for
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: the top five right now. I think they're on the
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: outside looking in. You see what I'm saying that you
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: love that number? Now when you really think about it,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: why wouldn't you take that seven and a half for
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Like Yeah, it just it feels like a
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: trap to me, That's why. And I feel like the
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Steelers team is really interesting. I don't think they're playing
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: the type right for years, it's been rob Ron Mike Tomlin.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Football is our game. Business is winning. I think this
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: year has been a little different. I think there have
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: been spots where you think it's going to be a
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: robber on Mike Tomlin and they get blown out like
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: the Bengals, and then you think it's gonna be spots
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: where it should be rob Rod Mike Tomlin, like last
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: week in Tennessee, where we loved him at plus one
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: and a half, we loved him at pick I bet
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: him on the money line. I bet him on the
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: money line live at plus two hundred when they were
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: down ten nothing, they got four turnovers and they won
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: by six. I mean that is the definition of Roma.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: That's the standard. But like I think when in the
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: rob Rod Mike Tomlin spots Ben, it's just a shell
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: of himself. And and so offensively they're nothing Kansas City,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: even without Tyree Hill and Travis Kelsey, they still have
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, they still have incredible offensive weapons. To me, like,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Steelers can can keep up right.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: And also we talked about we we love the Chiefs defense.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: They played different at home. They've just shut down all
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: these again not even that great of offense, but offense
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: is just as good as Pittsburgh so that's why we
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: we kind of lean towards the under. And yeah, because
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: I think the under is actually right here because the
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Steelers can rely on the running game and Nagie Harris
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: to run right through the Chiefs. We've seen them do that,
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: but then they get really stingy, and I don't think
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: the Steelers have the weapons in the red zone to
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: really score a lot of points. So that's where it's
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: gonna get interesting. I'm loving this game. This is going
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: to be an interesting game. I'm waiting for the number
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: to move down even more. Maybe it will alright, Miami
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: plus three at New Orleans. You liked it above one
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: and a half or two, it's still at three. This
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: to me absolutely is going to be in our top five.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: Even though we don't like Monday night games, We're gonna
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: have to do it. Yeah, another game we talked about
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: a prime time under here, taking the dog, taking the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: underknown shock just two great defenses. Look look look at
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: the data people on two of this year. He's been
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: really good. I know, he makes these dumb interceptions every
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: now and then. That's just I think that they're going
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: to live with too. He just he's young. He makes
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the wrong reads that pick you through against the Jets
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: you saw coming on Mallaway. I mean that those those
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: plays where the guys running the curl back route and
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: the defender never went up field. He's just standing right
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: there because he knew he was running curl route. That
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: that was so bad against Jets. But it's rare good
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: opportunity to fade a team that just won a prime
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: time game. Um, what they went by nine was a
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: nine nothing. That's rare, like like literally just one nine
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: nothing on the road. Now they're coming home with another
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: primetime game. It's really where you got opportunity to fade
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: those teams in this kind of position, especially team that
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: this isn't good, Like the Saints are so weak the
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: week we've seen it all year. They beat the Bucks twice,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: they beat Green Bay. I mean, they beat elite teams,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: and they've just faltered against other, like really not talented teams.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: Miami's defense has just been different. They've they've really turned
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: a corner. And people might say we're literal late to
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: the party, but to me, I still think we're getting
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: value on this line. I would have preferred to at
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: three and a half, which was when we opened um.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: That's always a key number. But to take that number
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: with Miami umoral words of Denny Green. They are who
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: we thought they were. They are who we thought they were. Alright,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: So big balls is gonna be the Pats plus two
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: and a half our final five slash six right now,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Bills plus two and a half, Cars minus one, Falcons
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: minus six, Panthers plus ten and a half, Miami plus three.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: We're we're investigating. The Chiefs and the Steelers will decide
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: on Sunday if that's one of the ways we want
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: to go. I think that rounds it out. It's going
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: to be a pretty quick conversation on Sunday morning. I
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: think between you and me, I definitely think there's like
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: ones to be really keyed in on. There's a couple
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: that are just on the edge where it's like they
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: could make their way in like we did last week
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh, but not it's unlikely. Should we talk about
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: our money line parlay dog your dog, Your dog dog?
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: I with third Tennessee and but a lot of people
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: might not listen to this before then. So if you
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: could throw their Tennessee in great, If not, we'll we'll
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: give you another five anyway, Cleveland, this number is way
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: too inflated. I would take the Cleveland money line. Green
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: Bay is notorious for a little stinker games like this,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: especially at then of the year. They tried to give
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: it away last week to the Ravens. I this is
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: this is it for the Brown So to me, this
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: is as mos vide as you can get if you're
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: this Brown team in Lambeau. I give them no chance
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: of covering that number. They either gonna win this game
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: out right. They're getting blown the funk out because that
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Cleveland team could have gave up for all we know
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: after that that loss last week. So to me, I like,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: that's the right time where I like that money line.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: But I'm not touching the spread Panthers. You just touched
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: on it. We like that Panthers number. It's too big.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Everything seems like it's kind of kind of go wrong
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: here a little bit for the Buccaneers, like they're kind
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: of running out a little bit of gay ask. They've
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: got too many injuries. It's gonna catch up to him.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: I think I just saw they put two of their
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: linebackers on the COVID list as well. That's that's bad
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: for a team. That needs to really stop the run
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: against the running team like Carolina. That that's that's big
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: for this Carolina team. So I've thrown a little on
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: that money line. I don't think we were gonna take it,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna give it out. But have a
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: look at Houston just for a little bit, because they
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: might have Eckler out with COVID. They might have both
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: had on defense with COVID. It could there could be
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: a couple of studs out for this team. The only
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: reason I'm not giving it out is Cooks is out.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Cooks right now is on the COVID list for this
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: Houston team. If you look at their offense, he's of
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: their receptions on third down has been Cooks. I mean,
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: that's insane to say, but that's how dominant he's been
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: for that Houston team. So I'll leave them out. Just
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: quick recap Panthers, Cleveland, Tennessee, and then well, I mean, obviously,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: we we love Miami, that's that's the Monday night game.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Love the Ravens, and I probably would stop there. I mean,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: I had I I want to give out Buffalo. If
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: people are getting under the two, I would just take
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: buffal on the money. I would have been about to too,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: So for me, those would be my my five favorite.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: The couple of pros I talked to, they liked really
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: giving out Washington's money line. I think they've seen the
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: same thing with me against this Dallas team. Dallas just
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: not has not looked right with Dak. They keep winning,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: they keep covering. It's a big deal. It's a revenge
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: spy divisional match up. I'm telling you the pros are.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: The pros are on Washington football team like they're gonna
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: be on that money line. So if you don't like
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: the Tennessee you want I there are couple of you
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: want to flip out the value is worth it taking
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: that Washington That number should be seven. It's all up
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: to ten. They're getting at least plus one fifty maybe
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: plus one seventy five value on that money line. So
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: that's that's how it ended up with either Washington or Miami.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Their Washington game we didn't talk much about, but come
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Sunday it might be a game that pinks back up.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: So we're in the home shut here for survivor. I'll
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: be shocked if any of our fans are even left.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Who would you do this? Week. I mean that I
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: got email went about it. He had Atlanta, he had Chargers.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: I feel like those are two of the best options
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: he gave to me. Um, where would you go? There?
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Would you? I would probably just go Chargers, right Yeah,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say Chargers. You can't rely on the Falcons,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: right you. They're not a good enough team that you
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: can feel comfortable that on Sunday. It's it's a it's
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: an emotional thing, right, Like the Texans are a bad
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: team who could probably cover the Falcons playing a really
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: good team that could make the playoffs. The Falcons are
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: a bad team that is lucky to be in the
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: playoff race. There they're six and two against bad teams,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: oh and six against good teams. But they are a
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: team that could go either away any single game. And
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: if you didn't use the Seahawks against Houston, it's another
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: one I would use. This week they're playing the Bears
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: at home. Um Seehawks should win that game. But no, man,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: it's if you're left and survive or the options are
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: very ugly. Like I had a person other person reach
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: out to me, what do you like better Jet your
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Jack's It's like that's what they got left. They got
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: a coin flip on that game, like, fuck man, some
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Survivor is so tough, specially that is fucking brutal, brutal.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I think we covered it all. We covered a real
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: issue that is, uh, the NFL is confronting. We got
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: to a final five or six, we got a winning line,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: parl it, we got Survivor, we got a big balls,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: we got sharp calls. It's turned to head into the holiday.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: My friends know it's crazy too, because we've had so
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: much football. I felt weird last night having NFL games
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: and now, all right, that was weird. It was like, oh,
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: this is what it's like to having night off. I'm
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: gonna tell you something. People judge me for this. I decided,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: you know, I was going to take a night off.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: There was no football. I'm not gonna be online. I'm
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: gonna relax. So I watched um the show The Good
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Fight with Christine Baranski. It used to be The Good Wife.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: That's so I like, how different we are? You did
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: that and I broke a bunch of laws. I legally
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: streamed the New Spider Man movie, and I was pretty good.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I just I thought were such different people in that way.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: I had one glass of whiskey, and I happily fell
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: asleep at ten o'clock at night. All right, brother, you're
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: the best. Happy holidays. Enjoy Christmas, Matt Mitchell, Enjoy Christmas
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: to all of our listeners. Happy healthy holidays. I hope
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: they win their bets. I hope everyone joins us that
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: convinced me on at Action Network gag Q to live
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: in a m Eastern Hope everyone follows the phase five
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network gaps so you can see what
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: picks we ultimately choose on Sunday morning. For Simon Hunter,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites from
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. Download us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Review us, especially on Spotify, you can now review just
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: give us five stars until Tuesday. I love you