Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Goats, Woats & A Clear Playoff Picture | NFL Week 18 Recap

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Goats, Woats & A Clear Playoff Picture | NFL Week 18 Recap · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Sunday Week eighteen is wrapping up. We've got the entire,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: well almost the entire playoff brackets sorted out. Welcome to
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. I'm your host Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: joined by my fellow Kappers Kendrim, Middleton and Stuckey. We've
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: got our goats, and Woltz queued up our biggest takeaways
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: from the final week of the season, some lessons learned
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: on the season as a whole, and we've got playoff
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: odds for the wild card round. In the NFL final
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: parlay of the regular season fell short by one. The
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Bengals not only failed to cover, they failed to win
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: against the Cleveland Browns, and the season we just saw
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: the Bears lose to the Lions. That opened the door
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: for the Eagles.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: All they had to do was beat Josh Johnson and
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: the Commanders to claim the two seed, but they took
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: an l to Washington. Now Philly, we'll host the San
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers and the Bears will host the Packers.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Clearly, the Eagles didn't care that much.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: I could go on for days, but let's welcome in
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: the crew here. Kendra how was your Sunday from a
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: profitability perspective, and how much are you looking forward to
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: this jaggs Bill's game in the wild card round.
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: The only thing that I had money on today was
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: the Bengals, and they broke my heart. So yeah, we'll
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: get into our ghost and wolds, but pretty much, Joe
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: Burrow is my wilt.
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: I can't even wait. That sucked.
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: That sucked so hard. I hated that so much. But
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: from a Jags fan perspective, I feel okay. I am
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: nervous when this game is going to be. I hope
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: it's like a night game, because night games are obviously
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: what everybody wants. Everybody wants to be in primetime. I
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: think that would be cool. I'm not sure if we'll
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: get that, but I feel okay. I feel better that
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: they're at home, better that they won the division. I
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: think the Houston Texans look a lot more beatable now.
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: So I also feel good about that. We were talking
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: before we got on here.
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: Everything feels far more wide open than it ever has before,
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: and I think that that is what I'm hanging my
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: hat on. With everything going on, I don't want to
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: face Josh Allen, but I think that this version of
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: the Bills is beatable.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: Initial reaction stucky to the bracket that we have right now,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: Raven Steelers is the only that's the only deciding factor
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: in terms of what we don't know, but we do
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: know that the winner of that game is going to
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: take on and host a game against the Houston Texans
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: in Round one. Everything else is settled. Your favorite most
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: intrigu most intriguing matchup in Round one of the playoffs.
• 2:44
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think it has to be Jacks Bills.
• 2:46
  Speaker 6: I mean, by the way I had the Bengals too.
• 2:48
  Speaker 6: It was a good bat and drumming the line closed well,
• 2:52
  Speaker 6: the game probably would have ended thirty five to three
• 2:53
  Speaker 6: if there wasn't the two fluke defensive touchdowns by Cleveland
• 2:58
  Speaker 6: in the first half. I mean the oritagine in the
• 2:59
  Speaker 6: first half of two thirty three to thirty, And I
• 3:02
  Speaker 6: played that because once you get the brown trailing, they're
• 3:05
  Speaker 6: they're cooked. It's toast. But they scored two defensive touchdowns.
• 3:08
  Speaker 6: They were very fluky and that's the only reason they
• 3:12
  Speaker 6: really won that game. But shout out to Miles Garf
• 3:15
  Speaker 6: for getting the record well deserved.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: His parents were very cute in the stands very adorable.
• 3:21
  Speaker 6: I would say, yeah, it's the Rams that are double
• 3:25
  Speaker 6: digit favorites. It's pathetic that the Panthers won that division.
• 3:27
  Speaker 6: It should be the Falcons. The Panthers had a worse
• 3:30
  Speaker 6: scoring margin than the Giants, who were in the running
• 3:34
  Speaker 6: for the one overall first overall pick.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: Today, can we talk about the glazing of the Tampa
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: Bay Buccaneers during that game yesterday by ESPN?
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: It was actually, like.
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: Listen, I don't think I've ever talked about that on
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: this show ever. Like I usually try to think avoid
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: talking about the reps, I try to avoid talking about
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: the commentary. But it was blatant that ESPN wanted the
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: box to win that game yesterday.
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: It was kind of embarrassing.
• 4:01
  Speaker 6: Well, the NFL luckily got it to happen because the slate,
• 4:05
  Speaker 6: the early slate today, Holy Molly, was boring. The only
• 4:08
  Speaker 6: thing that was semi exciting was the Saints Falcons game.
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: But I was glad that the Bucks got left out.
• 4:15
  Speaker 6: Any team that goes oh to nine against the spread
• 4:16
  Speaker 6: to close the season get out. And then I had
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: them yesterday. They missed a thirty seven yard field goal
• 4:21
  Speaker 6: and then give up a fourth and eight.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: Their last four games were like the Dolphins at the
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: half of their division, like terrible.
• 4:30
  Speaker 6: Yeah, the Bucks are there.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: I took the most.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: I took the most NFC South victory lap with my
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: best this weekend because I had I had the Saints
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: plus three, they lost by two. I had the Panthers
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: plus three, they lost by two. Perfect way to cap
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: this shitty division.
• 4:47
  Speaker 6: But I would say for as far as most intriguing,
• 4:51
  Speaker 6: well my go byway, Nick Sirianni, thank you for resting
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: your starters. Eagles under eleven and a half wins, which
• 4:57
  Speaker 6: should have cashed like fifty times this year comes home.
• 5:00
  Speaker 6: So shout out Nick, and shout out the Commanders for
• 5:04
  Speaker 6: fighting and Josh Johnson. But I think the most intriguing
• 5:07
  Speaker 6: matchup is Bill's Jags. I mean the AFC is wide open.
• 5:10
  Speaker 6: I mean, did you watch the Broncos today that I
• 5:12
  Speaker 6: mean Bo Nicks could barely complete a forward pass against
• 5:16
  Speaker 6: the Chargers backups. I mean that team could lose to
• 5:18
  Speaker 6: anybody in They're the one seed with a buye. So
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: the AFC is completely wide open. And then you're like,
• 5:25
  Speaker 6: most trustworthy commodity is Josh Allen? The hottest team that
• 5:28
  Speaker 6: looks the best right now is the Jags, who are
• 5:32
  Speaker 6: just surging, and those two teams are going to play
• 5:34
  Speaker 6: each other in Jackson, where the Jags have been incredible
• 5:36
  Speaker 6: all year. Jaggs is a home dog. Definitely intrigued me
• 5:40
  Speaker 6: at first glance for two reasons. One, this Bill's defense
• 5:45
  Speaker 6: has struggled across the board, but especially against the run.
• 5:48
  Speaker 6: That's the key. When the Jags can get their run
• 5:50
  Speaker 6: game going, everything else flows from there. And then the
• 5:55
  Speaker 6: Jags run defense has been tremendous all season, and the
• 6:01
  Speaker 6: Bills we know when to run the ball and run
• 6:03
  Speaker 6: the ball some more even though they have Josh Allen
• 6:05
  Speaker 6: so and the weakness of the Jags team is still
• 6:08
  Speaker 6: their secondary. It's not like the Bills have an elite
• 6:12
  Speaker 6: wide receiver room out there that can fully take advantage.
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: So I actually like the matchup for the Jags catching
• 6:18
  Speaker 6: points at home that that would be the side that
• 6:20
  Speaker 6: I look should be a great game. Jacks special teams
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: also dominant to the Bills at a kicker. I mean,
• 6:25
  Speaker 6: I think their kicker got hurt today because I saw
• 6:29
  Speaker 6: him going. I would imagine I didn't have that game
• 6:31
  Speaker 6: on sound, but they.
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: Cole Van Lannon got hurt today too, but the.
• 6:35
  Speaker 6: Bills kept going for two, so I assume their kicker
• 6:38
  Speaker 6: got hurt. I assume Praiser got hurt. But uh yeah,
• 6:42
  Speaker 6: Jags catching points at home, which would definitely.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: Be a look.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about the lines that are out there,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: just to get this out. First of all, we did
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: get some line movement. Also in tonight's game, the Ravens
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: are up to four and a half point favorite since
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I plus one hundred over on DraftKings. The Steelers are
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: juiced plus four and a half at minus one twenty.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: The total is still sitting at forty one and a half.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: Kendrick and I both like the under tonight at forty
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: one and a half. Before I move on, stuck, you
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: do you like anything for tonight because we're gonna spend
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: the rest of the episode talking about these games that
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: we have next weekend.
• 7:16
  Speaker 6: Now I lean under it's all comes down to how
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: healthy Lamar looks, so no one knows, so I don't know.
• 7:24
  Speaker 6: I'll be rooting hard for the Ravens to get in because,
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: like I said, the AFC is wide open. You get in,
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: anyone can make a run. So now I mean if
• 7:32
  Speaker 6: Lamar looks really healthy, then the Ravens are probably good.
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: The under might be in jeopardy. But if Lamar is
• 7:41
  Speaker 6: like not one hundred percent, that offense doesn't look the same.
• 7:45
  Speaker 6: The Steelers' offense without dk Metcalf is so easy to defend,
• 7:48
  Speaker 6: probably like a twenty to seventeen classic Ravens Steelers game.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: Let's hope we have a couple of home dogs in
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: the Wildcard round. The Chicago Bears plus one and a
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: half against the Packers open it up. The Panthers are
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: plus ten against the Rams, the largest road playoff underdog
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: in NFL history. The largest home playoff underdog in NFL
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: history are the Carolina Panthers at plus ten the the
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Eagles listen two. We have two cats that are underdogs
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: at home. The under the home dogs in the Wildcard
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: round are the Bears at plus one and a half,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: the Jags at plus one and a half, and the
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: Panthers at plus ten. Every other home team in the
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Wildcard round is a favorite. The Eagles forty nine ers
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: number just popped. We have Philly as a three point
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: favorite against the forty nine ers and the Patriots three
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: and the hook against the LA Chargers. Kendra, the sad Cats.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, if this was the regular season, it would
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: be no doubter. I'm gonna take the Rams a little
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: more seriously in terms of the postseason. So I'm not
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: going to fire on this just yet. But if that
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: stays at ten, I don't know how.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: I don't bet.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: Carolina after the season that they just had covering the numbers,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: especially numbers like this.
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: We need to come up with a better way to
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: describe the Panthers as a dog, and it relates to
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: like a cat joke, because that just feels wrong. I
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: want nothing to do with this, because the Panthers as
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: dogs this season outside of what we saw happened to
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: them yesterday.
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: I don't want anything to do with it.
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: Jags, though, I feel pretty good about that. I feel
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: like for luck purposes I cannot do so. But if
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: I were not a Jags fan, I would like that.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: I do also think that the Chicago thing that feels
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: crazy to me too. I don't trust screen Bay, I
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: don't trust their offense, and Chicago can outscore just about
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: anybody like that. I those three all sound a little
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: crazy to me. I'm not gonna lie.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: To you well you stucky you is there is there
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: one that jumps out? And what about that giant number
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: that we have in Carolina?
• 9:58
  Speaker 6: I haven't can probably pulled this. Historically, these Poverty Division
• 10:01
  Speaker 6: winners at home catching a big number are really good.
• 10:04
  Speaker 6: I think home dogs and division round in general have
• 10:07
  Speaker 6: been very good. But like these teams we see it
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: every couple of years that win like eight games and
• 10:10
  Speaker 6: host a host a playoff game historically done very well
• 10:14
  Speaker 6: against the number. I mean these teams played in I
• 10:18
  Speaker 6: think that was around where the number was when they
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: played a couple of weeks ago. The Panthers won outright,
• 10:22
  Speaker 6: but like there was all kinds of picks that the
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: Rams did whatever they wanted on offense. What the see
• 10:29
  Speaker 6: how healthy they are. But the Panthers are a super
• 10:32
  Speaker 6: high variance team, Like they get there's a reason they
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: have a negative sixty nine point differential. They've like they
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: pulled off upsets, but they also could get They get
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: drilled sometimes by like thirty. But they have been better
• 10:44
  Speaker 6: at home. I don't know, catching double digits. I guess
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: it would be Panthers are nothing these numbers. I mean,
• 10:51
  Speaker 6: like it's wildco weekend. Nothing's going to be too surprising.
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: You got to dig into matchups, injuries, try to find
• 10:56
  Speaker 6: some small edges here and there. I the other one,
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: I mean the forty nine Ers, It's like, who can
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: be worse the Eagles offense of the forty nine Ers defense.
• 11:08
  Speaker 6: That's and then in regards to the Packers Bears, I
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: mean the Packers offense should be relatively healthy. The defense
• 11:16
  Speaker 6: has been falling off a cliff. They just played that
• 11:20
  Speaker 6: classic game. Every Bears game is the same, Like the
• 11:22
  Speaker 6: Bears are probably gonna have the ball down three with
• 11:25
  Speaker 6: a minute to go after they were down ten. So
• 11:29
  Speaker 6: I mean that line feels okay to me. But yeah,
• 11:33
  Speaker 6: I think Evan, do you have any of that available
• 11:35
  Speaker 6: like home home dog wild cards in twenty and nine,
• 11:39
  Speaker 6: ten to five and two. But your probably most important
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: part is covering by over three points per game? Yeah,
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: And do you have like division winners with that are
• 11:49
  Speaker 6: under five hundred or five hundred or below. I don't
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: know if you can pull that easily. I think they've
• 11:53
  Speaker 6: done very well hosting in the first playoff game.
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: I was just going to say something disgusting that I
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: feel in my bones. If it's Pittsburgh against Houston, I
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: might get in on Pittsburgh.
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: I'm not even kidding.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: I've been saying for a couple of weeks. It depends
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: on the version of them that we get. But if
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: we get the version of them that we saw a
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago, like around that Lion stretch, I
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: think that they could beat a Houston team that I
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: think is cleolinging on on offense.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: So I wrote down a couple of notes of teams
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: that I might look at downgrading based on week eighteen.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: And I take this with a grain of salt, because
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: we eighteen is so goofy. But the Texans win over
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: the Colts today, to me is concerning a win. They
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: win the game, but they give up thirty points to
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Riley Leonard, I mean, I got to dig more into that.
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: I meant the Stars once.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: If it's the Ravens, I still love it, But if
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: it's Pittsburgh, I kind of like it so full.
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: This is why I said to say, we were out
• 12:54
  Speaker 6: twenty four in the first half of Texans puilled their starters.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Okay, so they didn't play they weren't playing their starters
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: on defense in the second half.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: No, okay, that's an important note. See that's why I
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: said I need to dig into this more.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: One of the other ones was, I mean the Bears
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: defense couldn't get stops today and they went three quarters
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: without scoring against the Lions. I thought that was concerning.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: The Rams lost too straight and then struggled against the
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals for much of the day. They wound up
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: pulling away at the end. But these are some of
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: the notes that I wrote down Stuck. You had mentioned
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: something you kind of breezed by this, but I think way.
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: Home team in wildcard round fifty percent win percentage or
• 13:31
  Speaker 6: less to only happened six times last twenty years, five
• 13:34
  Speaker 6: and one against the spread.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Well here you go pretty good, and that's that's a
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: nice fat number. I might end up on Carolina before
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: the end of the day. You breezed by something that
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: I think is so important for NFL betters out there
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: finding small edges, because these lines are they're barely going
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: to move from the open. I mean, there's just so
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: efficient with where they stand right now. So it's not like,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: you know, there are other portions in the season and
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: where I feel like if you're an early better maybe
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: and this is kind of how I profit more than
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: anything else, is getting in early ahead of line movement.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: There's not a lot of that in the postseason. What
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: are the things give me, like two items that people
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: should be looking for to find small edges in these
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: matchups where all these teams have the exact same motivation
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: in mind, there's no advantage there, and the lines just
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: simply are stiff.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: They're not going to move. So where would you tell
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: people to start?
• 14:31
  Speaker 6: Look into player props. That's what I would tell most people.
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: They're way, way, way less efficient. But what I spent
• 14:36
  Speaker 6: most of my time doing is just take it into
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: like matchups. But that you're everyday person isn't going to
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: spend time going into like what different quarterbacks do against
• 14:45
  Speaker 6: different coverages. And but like just basic stuff is what
• 14:49
  Speaker 6: you can focus on. If you want to get more
• 14:51
  Speaker 6: into the weeds, you could you could train a kindergartener
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: to tell you what the lines are going to be
• 14:55
  Speaker 6: around once the playoffs come.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: But like, funny, I say that because I'm actually training
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: my kindergartener exactly that right now.
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: I'm in the process of this.
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: Yeah, But I mean, like he would it kind of
• 15:09
  Speaker 6: get it. He would have been like, the Patriots are
• 15:11
  Speaker 6: going to be three or three and a half before
• 15:14
  Speaker 6: point favorites, like you're going to be in that ballpark,
• 15:16
  Speaker 6: the Eagles are going to be three. You could see
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: that maybe go to three and a half, but like
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: it's it's not rocket science. So injuries are a big one,
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: which I'll spend a lot of time on, and then
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: like what is the drop off? And then like I mean,
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: just if you without going way too deep, you can
• 15:33
  Speaker 6: just look at things like, Okay, you know that the
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: Jags offense when they can run the ball, I mean,
• 15:38
  Speaker 6: and they've been one of the best passing teams since
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: the acquisition of Jacobe Myers, but everything operates so much better.
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: So what do the Bills do against the run? We
• 15:46
  Speaker 6: know the Bills want to run the ball. What do
• 15:47
  Speaker 6: the Jags do against the run?
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: And from that.
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: Perspective, it's a pretty good matchup for the Jags. So, uh,
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: just basic stuff like that. But yeah, it's always hard
• 15:57
  Speaker 6: to beat the NFL, but especially this time of the
• 15:59
  Speaker 6: year year and you're right, there's not gonna be much
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: movement unless there's a significant injury. So yeah, you'll maybe
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: see like a half point point move service releases, bigger
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: money comes in when the limits are raised later in
• 16:15
  Speaker 6: the week. But it's different than the regular season.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: Kendrick, You're one of the more composed betters that I know.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: I think it's it is your edge that you don't
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: get You don't get caught in volume and the volume
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: of the NFL, which takes a lot of people out.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: Do you have a specific strategy for betting the playoffs
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: in the way.
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: That you approach it.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: I look at like who on their schedule was similar
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: and who performed how against each similar opponent. That's usually
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: how I look at things that and how healthy you
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: were when you played, you know, the big important stretches
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: of your schedule.
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: I bet.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Cats, So I'm gonna go Jaggs Panthers probably early on,
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: and then we'll see what happened.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well it's hand out of it.
• 16:59
  Speaker 6: Probably a better doing that than animals or colors.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet cats and I'm gonna fade birds. I
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: think that might be the strategy going into the postseason.
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's not a bad one.
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: We can come up with other animal related bets and fades.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: On the Tuesday episode, Let's hand out our goats and
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: wotes before we get back into it. How can you
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: not give it to the the Browns pass rusher, Miles Garrett.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: You had two players lifted up on shoulders during this game.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: That rarely happens, Miles Garrett and the what's their kicker?
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: Smit. Both guys got the shoulder and the shoulder treatment.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: So shout out to the I know it roasted both
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: of your bets, but still is a special day for Cleveland.
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: In that game.
• 17:54
  Speaker 6: And it's all the Bengals complaining about them stopping the
• 17:58
  Speaker 6: game for Miles Garrett like that. That's just pathetic, Like
• 18:02
  Speaker 6: a pathetic end of the pathetic Bengal season.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: Did you see the line from Zach Taylor on that
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: he said, we're out there fighting for our lives.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: You're not fighting for anything.
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: They ran the clock own.
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: I did see that. That was crazy.
• 18:14
  Speaker 6: They ran the clock out with their still alive for
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: the playoffs against the Ravens when they were getting shut
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: out with eight minutes to go. They literally just ran
• 18:22
  Speaker 6: the clock out. So don't tell me that you're fighting
• 18:24
  Speaker 6: for anything. That was a sad I mean, they were
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: about to blow out the Browns and then they just
• 18:29
  Speaker 6: it was a sad effort, no energy, no emotion. You weren't.
• 18:32
  Speaker 6: They weren't fighting for anything, and then to complain that
• 18:34
  Speaker 6: they stopped the game. Give me a break.
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: Is Joe Burrow Bengal next year?
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: I have I have no idea for his sake, I
• 18:45
  Speaker 6: hope not. He needs to go somewhere that he needs
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: to go to a winning organization. Nothing that organization does
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: uh breeds winning. But yeah, then my go to Sirianni
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: Moather goat is. I guess I'll say, well, the Raiders.
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: The Raiders close, So I guess I'll say I don't
• 19:04
  Speaker 6: even know. There was no touchdowns in that game. I
• 19:06
  Speaker 6: can't even give out a good I got. I mean
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: Carlson hit the field goal. That game ended with the
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: final score is fourteen to twelve with no touchdowns. One
• 19:15
  Speaker 6: of the worst. I watched every play of that game.
• 19:17
  Speaker 6: I had money on the Raiders. One of the worst games.
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: Nothing happened the entire game. It was a safety. Shane
• 19:24
  Speaker 6: bouchell came in a quarterback for the Chiefs. I never
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: thought he would be in an NFL game again. And Evan,
• 19:30
  Speaker 6: when are we talking about Shane Bouchelle. The other week
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: back at Texas, some stat we were talking about him
• 19:38
  Speaker 6: the other.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Day, but that definitely popped up on an episode about
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: a month ago.
• 19:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah, but it was funny that the Raiders one of
• 19:45
  Speaker 6: the most interesting line moves of the day was like,
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: that's one of my favorite parts about Week eighteen is
• 19:52
  Speaker 6: watching the line move so like the once the Seahawks
• 19:56
  Speaker 6: and that line was moving in real time. But once
• 19:58
  Speaker 6: the Seahawks where Hey the Seahawks, they're gonna win the
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: Rams seven cent of the play, you saw the Rams
• 20:03
  Speaker 6: line take off. Because I don't think the market belief
• 20:06
  Speaker 6: that McVeigh would play his starters if they were locked
• 20:09
  Speaker 6: in at least for the full game to the sixth seed.
• 20:12
  Speaker 6: But the the Raiders took money late before kick Let
• 20:19
  Speaker 6: me see what it ended up closing at. It got Yeah,
• 20:21
  Speaker 6: I close it. They took, they got they got down
• 20:23
  Speaker 6: to three and a half after the Giants won, and
• 20:29
  Speaker 6: the Raiders secured the number one overall pick, which is
• 20:33
  Speaker 6: so funny to me because like, you can make you
• 20:36
  Speaker 6: can tank by making decisions from who you're gonna play
• 20:38
  Speaker 6: and who you're not. But the market, I think some
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: obviously thought that Okay, the Raiders if they didn't have
• 20:45
  Speaker 6: the number one pick locked up already. They might have
• 20:48
  Speaker 6: made some ridiculous in game decisions to make sure they
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: lose that game. You know, at the end, maybe they don't.
• 20:57
  Speaker 6: They just they don't try to score. I don't know,
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: but I found that interesting because good players that what
• 21:02
  Speaker 6: a you get to call plays different. The players on
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: the field are going to play. But seeing the Raiders
• 21:06
  Speaker 6: take money after the Giants were in control was pretty interesting.
• 21:10
  Speaker 6: But I guess today I don't have any goats. My
• 21:12
  Speaker 6: goats were It was just a boring day. No one
• 21:16
  Speaker 6: deserves the goat status.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: I'll give a goat to another one to Ronnie Bell
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: of the Saints. A one handed catch that not only.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Gives me the cover on New Orleans, then the Falcons
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: by winning the game, give me the season long under
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: on the Saints at six and a half. So I
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: got the double win there. I got greedy this week
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: and was able to cash on both. That was great, Kendrew.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: What about you wrap us up with the goats and
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the crash me up?
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: My goat has to be Cameron Little.
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: The longest field goal in NFL history belongs to him,
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: and the second largest and now the longest indoor and.
• 21:52
  Speaker 6: Outdoor on his field goal.
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: I know. Put him in the pride, dude, sign him
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: to a lifelong contract.
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: My wote.
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: I don't care if these were fluky plays. It's Joe Burrow.
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: He is my favorite player in the NFL. And he
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: hurt me today and I'm hurt. I'm hurt. Okay, I'm upset.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Kendra, where do you land on?
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: Uh?
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Does this make you emotional in anyway?
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: My my wife texted me moments ago and said that
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: when Scott Hansen signed off tonight.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: He cried a little bit. How great is that? Does
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: that not? Does that choke you up a little bit? Yeah?
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: I love your wife. I love Scott Hanson.
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: I loved all of the moms and dads on the
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: broadcast today, even when games didn't matter, they were still
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: out there shout out parents. Text your mom, Call your
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: mom if you're listening to this show, do something nice
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: for her.
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: That's actually the least sad of urban for Red Zone
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: to be over, because I'm ready in the NFL season
• 22:49
  Speaker 6: is eighteen.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: Weeks thereat Zone year.
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: We've had so many backup quarterbacks, we had so much.
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: He's like, I'm tired of late like.
• 22:59
  Speaker 6: Awful late slates and third string and I think about
• 23:03
  Speaker 6: the quarterbacks that we saw today, I'm ready for like
• 23:07
  Speaker 6: meaningful playoff games.
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: Where between the Houston Texans, so like.
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm it was I love red zone, but I'm
• 23:17
  Speaker 6: ready for meetingful football. Like there there was some bad
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: bad today today on red zone was it was tough
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: to get through. I mean, the entire day felt like
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: it was like fifteen hours like that. What was the
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: the most thrilling minute was because the Saints scored a
• 23:35
  Speaker 6: touchdown you had to watch an onside that was basically it.
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: And then Miles Garrett gets a sack. That was the
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: one o'clock slate. The four o'clock slate was, oh the
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: the Tanner McKee's got to try to lead a touchdown
• 23:48
  Speaker 6: from eighty yards away with no timeouts and then uh,
• 23:52
  Speaker 6: and then the Bears game didn't even matter because of that.
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: So we today Carlson, Hello, it's a day for kickers.
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: Yeah, Raider, the Raider Chiefs game is the most exciting
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: game of the day. The worst game I've ever watched
• 24:03
  Speaker 6: in my life was the most exciting game of the day.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: This is how this is how spoiled we've become as
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: as football fans were like that I've kind of had
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: enough of this non stop football for seven hours with
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: like day Ken.
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: You gonna be like, I wish I could have that
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: game back.
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: See, I'm old enough. When I was a kid, like
• 24:24
  Speaker 6: on week eight, week seventeen or back back then, you
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: on the last day you would have, I'd be you'd
• 24:34
  Speaker 6: just be waiting for updates on the bottom line. And
• 24:37
  Speaker 6: then that's when like the the break ins were so important.
• 24:43
  Speaker 6: Now residents like, get this break in away from you
• 24:45
  Speaker 6: already know what happened when they break in. Everyone knows
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: what happened. But back then it was like, oh, what
• 24:49
  Speaker 6: happened here? Is it gonna be a pick? It's uh?
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: Is it a touchdown? And so yeah, we have become
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: very spoiled.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: That was that was red zone before red zone.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Okay, we're gonna get back to some why health card
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: games in a moment, but first I'm gonna tell us
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: it to Kendra for a word about our partners at DraftKings.
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: new customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred
• 25:12
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• 25:15
  Speaker 4: in on the action and use your bonus bets on
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• 25:22
  Speaker 4: To get started, use promo code favorites when signing up
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: with DraftKings. Again, use code favorites when signing up, and
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: bet five bucks to get two hundred back in bonus bets.
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: If your bet wins, the crown is yours, all right.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: Kendra, Before we get out of here, We've got almost
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: every wild card game set.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: We've got numbers on all of them.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: You don't have to give me an official bet, but
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: could you give me an unofficial lean on one of these?
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: Whoever wins tonight? That is my lien.
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: I think this Texans team is gettable and early, and
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: they're on the road, this Texans team, and I'm gonna
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: go whoever whoever winns tonight, I'm probably gonna be on
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: them because they're gonna be dogs, and.
• 26:05
  Speaker 6: I so I don't think they will be in Baltimore,
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: will be favorite in Pittsburgh.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I think they could be dogs either way based on
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: my kindergarten math. But but I tend I tend to agree.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: I'm a little bit I'm a little concerned with the Texans. Uh,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: mine would be I'm I'm stucky. I think I'm gonna
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: sit on the Panthers for a second. I want to
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: get high on my own supply here, but I'm gonna go.
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: With the Jags.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: I think the Jags, yeah right now, feel like the
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: best bet everybody's gonna come in on.
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: What both of my nominations cash today? But by the way,
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: I would like that, you know, I.
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: Would like to look season long.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: Uh you know, it's gonna take some time to pull
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: the numbers.
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: But the Kravitz car is better not be alive and
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: well and Pallas. What's the Jags podcast?
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: I haven't bet it yet, so no curse, No curse
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: is alive, but this is a Jigs podcast. I think
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: they are just as good offensively, they're better defensively. They've
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: got the leg with Cam Little to get it done,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: and I think the Jags are.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: Going to be slept on here.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: They should not be dogs by more than a point
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, so one and a half there they
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: would be.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: A bet for me as or at least a lean
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: as of right now.
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: What about you, Stuckey, Yeah, I would agree Jags catching
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: one and a half. I think that's the one that
• 27:34
  Speaker 6: I would look at the most. If I could get
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: like the hook with the Niners, I might look there.
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: I just don't trust this Eagles team to win by
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: margin over anybody. And like, if there's any defense, if
• 27:46
  Speaker 6: there's any offense that the forty nine Ers defense can contain,
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: it's this Eagles offense. Because the Eagles offenses beats itself.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 27:58
  Speaker 6: But the only other thing I have to say we're
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: breaking were these games only have two episodes this week
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: while I've actually our podcasts. We're breaking all these games
• 28:05
  Speaker 6: down in depth.
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: I have to talk about some awards all of.
• 28:08
  Speaker 6: These games all night. I will say the one gave
• 28:09
  Speaker 6: me to imagine Matt Vifloor with the saddest fueld goal.
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: I think that some places that line closed thirteen and
• 28:14
  Speaker 6: a half. Uh calling a time out with one second left,
• 28:18
  Speaker 6: down sixteen to nothing and kicking a field goal that
• 28:22
  Speaker 6: made me chuckle. So I coach of the year, I U.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: Is it?
• 28:30
  Speaker 6: It's still Vrable Rabel, I think it's raid.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I was brable Hand was second in line, but
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: he obviously lost yesterday.
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: So did Ted win it? Because Shuck lost today.
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: Annoyed the Jackson. I'm kind of annoyed the Jackson's odds
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: weren't better.
• 28:51
  Speaker 6: Ted is minus eleven hundred. Now, yes, it looks like
• 28:54
  Speaker 6: you want to. Stafford is now favored to win MVP
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: heavy over May.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: Oh no, I'm sorry, I was looking. Rabel's a heavy
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: favorite twin Coach of the Year minus four hundred. Stafford
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: is a slight favorite at minus one thirty five over
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Drake May.
• 29:10
  Speaker 6: I think they should win it, but I think I
• 29:12
  Speaker 6: can see why Stafford is gonna win it as like
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: a lifetime achievement award. So and then Defensive Player of
• 29:19
  Speaker 6: the Year is obviously going to be Garrett.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: Oh for sure. Yeah, you break the sack record. That
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: is that's an auto for His odds are like.
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: I don't even remember what they were the other day,
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: but it was like, well, okay, it's his.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Well, unlike Scott Hansen, we are not going to cry
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: at the end of this episode because we have more
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: to bring to you. We're gonna come back on Tuesday
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: and we're gonna plant our flag officially on these AFC
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: and NFC wild Card games. We're also going to have
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: a Thursday episode and we'll be right back for a
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: Sunday recap as well. Good luck with your bets tonight
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Kendra and I on the Ravens Steelers under forty one
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: and a half. We'll see you next time here on
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: the Favorites podcast presented by Draft Kings of the Crown
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: is yours col ravings, Go Jags.
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: hundred Gambler