Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | One Trick Pony | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & Horses | 5/16/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | One Trick Pony | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & Horses | 5/16/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Your chaps, the black coffee on the felt man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 4: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on nothing nice, now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: hold on and me.
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: That but it all get the crown, hold on, hold on,
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: stay with me, Now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: What's up? Everybody is sewed back with you with Toadstool Sports,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: it is Saturday, May sixteenth. We went three and one
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: on the show yesterday, all three MLB totals one. Let's
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: just blindly play unders in every game. No, we got
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: the undercorrect with Yankees Mets, which hopefully you guys did
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: find a seven and a half on that because the
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: seven would have pushed in an unlucky way. The Yankees
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: did score three runs or alway, so that had me
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: a little bit coner earned. But the scoring slowed down
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: and then something crazy happened in the game when it
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: was three nothing Yankees. The Yankees lined a hit off
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: of Clay Holmes's leg and he broke. I forget if
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: it was his fibula or his tibbia. I think it
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: was incorrectly reported, Okay, one of his shin bones. I
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: think it was the tibia. It fractured, and he continued
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: to pitch. He threw twenty six more pitches after that,
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: and he wound up. He was at like sixty nine,
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: sixty nine, and he wound up going ninety six pitcher
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: or ninety five pitches, whatever it was in the game.
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: Like it was like he didn't even know his leg
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: was broken. He just kept pitching, which I don't know
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: if that hurt us or not. There we still got
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: the play correct. Wound up, it was five to one
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: Yankees going to the ninth inning, and the Mets put
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: up a garbage run. They had a run around second
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: with two outs, and they scored that run right at
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: the end, So it pushed on the seven if you
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: did have the seven. But I did find a seven
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: and a half at a decent enough price that that's
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: what I gave it out at, so I will score
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: it as a win. We had under in Red Sox
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: Braves easy not even close h the only Warrior there
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: was is this is this gonna go into extra innings
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: because the Red Sox I believe they were down two
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: nothing and then they tied it at two. The worries,
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: of course, the ghost Runners and extra innings. You need
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: a lot to go wrong at that point to have
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: that under not win though, But I think the Braves
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: just won the game of the ninth inning anyway or something.
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: So it was a three to two final, and then
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: the under in San Diego Seattle was ridiculously easy to nothing.
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: San Diego win. I'm pretty sure in that game that
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: was under the whole way, man. And then we got
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: killed on the NBA game with the Minnesota Tea Wolves.
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: If you look at what happened in that game though, like, yeah,
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: I think the Tea Wolves got completely out rebounded and whatever,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: but the shooting was just insane. Like San Antonio probably
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: shot sixty percent from the field in that game. They
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: missed nothing, Like I'm pretty sure in Minnesota had more
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: field goal attempts in the game by a double digit
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: amount and they lost the game by like thirty points.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: You never see that a team that has that many
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: more field goals than the other field goal attempts than
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: the other team in the game, and not only do
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: they not cover, they lose by thirty. Like it makes
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: absolutely no sense, dude. So like, from a shooting perspective,
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: there's nothing you could do about it. When the other
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: team's just shooting the lights out and not missing anything
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: at all, you can't do anything about it. So yeah,
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: I'm not happy about that, but I don't necessarily think
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: it was the wrong handicap. I don't know we're gonna
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: move on to today. I have three plays here. I'm
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: gonna give about two baseball plays. They're totals, and hopefully
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: we can continue with that. And I have one, hold
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: on a second, I have one other play here. I
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: have a play on the hockey game. But let me,
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: I gotta get into the system here. Hold on, and
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: there is no WNBA or NBA today, there's no basketball
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: at all.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: Hang on.
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: There will be NBA tomorrow, though I believe Game seven
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: between Detroit and Cleveland is tomorrow. And actually I think
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: the San Antonio ok C series actually might start as well.
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: I have to look at that. Maybe it doesn't though
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: it might be Monday. No, it has to be Monday, right, Well, No,
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: it doesn't have to be. I don't know. I'll look
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: hold on, I'm distracted. I'm getting this other play into
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: the system. All right, found a good price, I think,
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: on this hockey place. So all right, dirty Sock, what's up?
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, it's AI. Don't tell anyone.
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: Tyson, what's up, Kyle? What's up? Sparrow, what's up Pillow?
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: Everybody? Yes, sir, thanks for hanging out everybody. I'm doing
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: all right. I just wish I was actually putting the
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: normal amount of money on all these things. I should
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: just do it, man, even though I have no I
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: have nothing to fall back on anymore, but I have
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: enough that I should just be doing this because this
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: is one of the best runs that I've ever been on.
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: It's on the bottom of the screen there right now,
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: seventy eight thirty seven and five over the last forty
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: two days here, and I believe we're run What is
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: it run? I'm trying to I think we're on like
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: a nineteen and four run over the last like eight
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: days or something like that. I'd have to figure it out,
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: but it's something like that. I don't want to get
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: that wrong, but it's close to that. All right, baseball
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: will be first up here. Let me zoom in on
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: this a little bit. Pregame is never gonna fix their bullshit. Man,
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: it's unacceptable. Their site should just completely go away, like they're.
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: Dead to me.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: You can't even fix your fucking market percentages, which is
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: the main draw of your website. It's been like three
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: weeks now, and you're not gonna fucking fix it. Fuck off,
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: fuck Pregame wager talk. I'm using their odd screen evenough like,
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: don't think that there numbers that they have here are
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: is helpful to me.
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: That's been the case, but whatever, let's do it.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: Rivalry weekend continues, man, with Toronto and Detroit is the
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: first game up, as there are some afternoon games here.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: I believe both of my plays are in the evening
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: though I have two baseball plays. Yes, yes, they're both
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: in the evening. All right, So Toronto at Detroit. I
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: was wrong about Toronto yesterday. It was a close game,
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: Detroit one three to two. You know, it wasn't a
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: play for me or anything. What can you do. Detroit's
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: bullpen game actually worked out pretty well for them. Toronto
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: wound up using three guys out of the bullpen. Detroit
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: used more because it was a bullpen game. They used five,
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: So this Detroit bullpen is not something I'm really looking
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: at looking to back in this game. They're twenty first
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: bullpen ranking based on whip. Toronto is a little bit
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: better than that. It's seventeenth, although not great. Detroit's been
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: the better offense, but they haven't been as good recently.
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: They're better at home though just generally Detroit plays better
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: at home. They have a good home record their twelfth
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: in offense, Toronto is twenty fifth. Toronto not hitting well
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: this year. Toronto is going with a bullpen game, and
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: I honestly have no idea what they're doing because Eric
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: lower it would be his turn in the rotation, but
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: you know, they've been using him behind like an opener,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: and I think he actually did okay at least one
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: of the last couple of times he was out there,
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: but they designated him for assignment. So Eric Lauer is
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: not even on the team anymore. How insane is that,
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: Like he was one of Toronto's better starters last year
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: and now he's off the team. So I have no
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: idea what Toronto's doing in this game right now. Mason
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: Fleuardi is the listed starter, which he's going to be
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: an open so I don't really.
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: Think we need to handicap him.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: Really. His numbers aren't even good. Five point four ERA,
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: one point four whip. He's been working out of the
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: bullpen this year. He's gonna be an opener.
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: Probably.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: He hasn't gone more than like one and a third
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: inning in any outing this year, so he's probably gonna
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: go out for one, maybe a little bit over one inning,
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: and then it's gonna be a Toronto bullpen game. That
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: doesn't seem good to me up against Casey Mize, who
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: was returning from the injured list. So this very injured
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: Detroit starting rotation is getting one of their guys back
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: here should help them because he actually was doing well
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: two point nine ERA, one point one to nine whip.
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: He's been good at home this year one point five
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: to four ERA at home. Hasn't pitched its late April
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: when he got knocked out of a game against Atlanta,
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: and that was when he got injured. But he's a veteran,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: you know, Like these veteran pitchers when they come back,
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: I think they tend to do pretty well. I haven't
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: looked at what his rehab assignments looked like. But they're
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: kind of used to it. When these guys have been
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: in the lead for so long, Like, I think they're
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: pretty much ready to go once they get back in there,
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: and they might actually do a little bit better than
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: you think because they might just be excited to get
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: back out there and pitch. Myz also actually has pretty
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: good numbers against Toronto, although it's in a very small
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: sixteen at bat sample size one strikeout, no walks, two
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: fifty average six to twenty five. Ohps, I'm gonna lean
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: to Detroit in this game, though you know they won
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: yesterday with a bullpen game. Actually, I would do it
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: first five. Actually, I don't know, because Toronto's going with
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game all game here, even though I don't
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: like Detroit's bullpen and they went with a bullpen game yesterday,
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: but it's a Toronto bullpen game this time.
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I would just lean Detroit full game.
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: I guess they're in the minus one twenty to minus
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: one thirty or so range here. The money is totally
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: disagreeing with me. As usual, sixty percent of tickets on
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: Detroit seventy percent of the cash on Toronto, but I
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: want no part of whatever the hell Toronto's doing right
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: now with that pitching. And Detroit at least is a
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: good home team, like I said, and I think mys
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: might have a good outing there and that should help
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: you out there. I would not disagree still with going
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: Detroit first five innings either though, and then you avoid
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: the Detroit bullpen. I could see arguments for going both
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: ways with that, all right, Kansas City at Saint Louis,
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: I thought Kansas City had the better situation yesterday, didn't
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: really love Waka's matchup stats, and the game wound up
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: going into extra innings and Saint Louis won the game.
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: What else is new? Saint Louis continues to overperform in
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: my opinion, I don't think they're that good of a team.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: They're better than we thought they would be, that's for sure,
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: but I don't think they're as good as the record
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: would indicate. But they're a National League team, and you know,
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: the National League has dominated the American League this season,
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: and we're looking at a lot of interleague games today.
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: I don't even know how many National League teams won yesterday,
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: but I think many of them did again, so I
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: think that dominance is continuing. Kansas City used a lot
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: of relievers yesterday. It was an eleven or twelve inning game.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: I think they used six guys out of the bullpen.
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis used a bunch as well. They used whatever
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: that is five. I don't like either bullpen anyway, so
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: I would definitely be looking to fade these bullpens here
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: and whatever I do, or at least avoid them. Saint
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: Louis their twenty second in bullpen Kansas City twenty sixth.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: We're not looking at good bullpens here. The offenses have
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: been decent. Saint Louis tenth way better than we thought
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: that they would be in Kansas City's moving up a
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: little bit there at sixteenth, which is not.
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: Too bad to me.
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: On the surface, this looks like a starting pitching matchup
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: that definitely favors Kansas City, though with Noah Cameron pitching.
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: He was good last year and I think what was
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: his second season, maybe no it was his first season.
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: He pitched well last year, but this year he has
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: not been doing well. Five point five to five ERA,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: one point six to three whip. That's not good. He's
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: been a little bit worse on the road to six ERA.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: That does worry me. Man, last time out, he only
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: went four innings against Detroit. Three walks, four strikeouts is fine,
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: but you can't walk that many guys. Man. He's walked
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: multiple guys in all of his outings since his first
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: two of the season. His overall numbers are not too bad,
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: but you know, he has too many hits, that's really
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: the thing. Somewhat too many walks as well. But he's
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: a lot of many more hits than in his pitch
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: and that's kind of the problem with him. You know,
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: I don't I know, I typically go over all the
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: numbers here, but I'm trying to save time in some
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: way here. His numbers against Saint Louis are pretty good historically,
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: only nineteen at bats against them, one fifty eight batting
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: average allowed five to sixteen ops three one strikeout walk ratio.
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: So I think Cameron, uh he might be able to
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: pitch well in this game. In this specific matchup, Lewis
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: is going with Kyle Lahey, who I don't think is
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: very good. Four point three one ERA looks kind of mediocre,
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: but his one point five to nine whip is really bad.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Can't put that many guys on base man, He's been
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: pretty much the same home and road. Those splits are
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: not crazy. He's only given up one run this month
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: in two outings. But if you look at what he's
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: actually done, it's not that good. Ten strikeouts and six walks,
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: So he's getting away with walking a lot of guys
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: and usually that comes back to bite you if you
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: keep walking guys, and that has been the issue. He's
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: given up too many walks and too many hits this year. Man,
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: Like his numbers just are not very good across the
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: board against Kansas City, though he actually does have good numbers.
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: Seventeen at bats is a small sample. A lot of
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: their hitters have faced them. All of them have pretty
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: much seen him at least once. Four strikeouts, three walks,
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: but a two thirty five average five eighty five ops allowed.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: So both starting pitchers actually look like they match up. Okay,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean as insane as it sounds, You know,
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: I mean I could see arguments for a first five
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: inning under in this game. I know that sounds insane.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: I would not want the bullpens to have any part
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: of that. Obviously, the money's coming in towards the over,
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: though pretty strongly. Fifty five percent of the tickets on
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: the under, eighty percent of the cash on the over,
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: the totals nine. It is high for a reason. I
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: know this is a it's a pitcher friendly park in
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis too, so a total that's up there that's
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: indicating that the oddsmakers think this pitching is going to
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: be bad. Some of it is because these two pitchers
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: just have bad numbers this year. Now, yeah, I mean,
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: if you're gonna go over, you gotta go full game
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: with it because you want the bullpens in that equation
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: because they're bad and they're not rested. But I think
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: that the opening parts of this game might actually be
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: lower scoring, So I would not really recommend an over
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: in the game. And I'm gonna lean Kansas City. I
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: think Kansas City is still probably the strongest way to
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: play this because I still think Saint Louis is overrated.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: I think Cameron has more upside than Lay, like we
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: saw what he did last year, like when he's actually
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: pitching well, he's the better pitcher out of these two.
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: And the money seems to agree with that. Fifty seven
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: percent of the tickets on Saint Louis sixty four percent
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Kansas City, So the public seems
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: to want Saint Louis because the record is better. Whatever.
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm gonna lean to Kansas City as a
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: slight underdog in that one, you know, full game versus
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: first five. I don't think there's that much of a
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: difference there because both bullpens suck. So if you want
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: to just focus on the starting pitching matchup, that you
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: could go first five as well with Kansas City there,
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: and then you just avoid any potential bullpen implosion, even
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: though both bullpens are completely liable to do that.
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: Though, mister Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: Is is that me?
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: Is that a toad?
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: What is that?
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: That's?
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: Ah?
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: Is that a Jackson dark jersey on him?
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: I don't know what that is. I feel like you're
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: giving me too much credit. Dirty Sock approves of it, though,
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: all right. Arizona at Colorado. Arizona won the game yesterday
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: nine to one, and Meryl Kelly had a complete game,
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: allowing one run. I think it was his first complete
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: game of his career. I think is what I saw.
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: Merril Kelly might start pitching better again. Man, that's a
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: good sign that he could go into coursefield and do that.
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: He saved Arizona's entire bullpen, so that should help Arizona
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: come in into this game. They didn't use anybody out
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: of the bullpen yesterday and they haven't used anybody for
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: two days. So this is a very rested Arizona bullpen here.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: Even though I don't love their bullpen, they're rested. I
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: think they're the slightly better bullpen. Colorado used two guys
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: out of the bullpen. I know we have Arizona ranked
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: third based on whip. I still don't think they're that
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: good out of the bullpen. They're eerrais a lot higher
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: than that, but they are better than Colorado's. They're more
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: rested Colorado. How does it sixteenth in bullpen? Although Colorado's
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: BULLPENNI Ray is actually a little bit better, But I
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: don't think Colorado is the better bullpen.
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: Hitting wise, Colorado has been the better team.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: I believe Arizona's twenty first currently Colorado thirteenth. Colorado does
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: hit better at home, although Arizona was all the offense
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: in this game yesterday. Eduardo Rodriguez is getting the start
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: for Arizona. He's been pretty good this year actually, two
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: point twenty five ERA, one point two to one WHIP.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: I'm not a huge fan of his, but those numbers
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: are better than you would expect out of him. He
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: hasn't been as good on the road though, three point
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: zero five Roady Ray, and you gotta worry about that
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: when you're pitching a corps field and you're not a
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: good road pitcher, that might be a problem. He does
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: allow more fly balls than ground balls, which is not
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: what you want to see in corps field. But he
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: did actually pitch in the stadium one time last year,
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: which was August fourteenth, and he did really well. Actually
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: seven innings, six hits allowed, six strikeouts, one walk, one
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: are run allowed. It was on a home run, but
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: he pitched well in that game. He actually was way
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: worse at home against Colorado to start prior to that,
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: so that's interesting. So he did pitch well the one
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: time he pitched here last year. At least, his numbers
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: against the Rockies are actually good overall, two twenty six
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: batting average allowed six to oh one OPS, twelve to
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: four strikeout walk ratio, fifty three at bats against them,
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: although it's kind of clustered. Not all of their hitters
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: have seen him, but most of them have e Rod
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: this month, he's actually been really good in two starts
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh, but also against the Mets, who we know
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: can't hit. But Pittsburgh has been a pretty good offense.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: He's only given up one run this month of fifteen
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: to third innings. He's been basically unhittable. Six hits over
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: that smam, but six walks is a problem. His walks
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: have been a real issue still. Eleven strikeouts isn't even
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: really that many. The walks are the concern of him
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: and his strike He got raided his way down, uh
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: because you know, I mean he's getting older. He's had
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: I think probably multiple Tommy John surgeries now, so he
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: just doesn't have his velocity he once had, which is
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: a problem. Uh So the strike out rate is down,
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: the walk rate is too high. But he's not along
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: a lot of hits at all. So whatever he's doing,
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: he's been difficult to hit. And I don't know what
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: it is. He is a lefty, so you know, maybe
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: he's messing with his arm angle and that's messing hitters up.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Against Colorado, I already did that. Yeah,
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: he has good numbers against them. He will be opposed
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: by Tomo Yuki Sugano, who is having an okay season
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: four point seven ERA, one point one to nine whip.
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: He's not as good in course field, which makes sense,
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: although he's actually allowed more home runs per inning away
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: from home, which is weird.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: Yet his ERA is still way lower on the road.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know, but it makes sense that he wouldn't
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: be as good at home because it's a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: Four point seven to one ERA. He hasn't been good
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: this month at all. Really, He's allowed almost one run
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: and inning against the Mets, which is not a good sign.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: And Philadelphia, who haven't hit well this year. Three three
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: strike out walk ratio over that's man, that's not good.
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: His overall numbers. He just he doesn't strike out a
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: lot of guys at all. But he's allowed way too
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: many home runs nine home runs this year. Obviously, that
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: doesn't bode well for pitching a course field. Some of
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: it is because he is pitching a course field, although
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: like I said, he's allowed twice as many home runs
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: on the road, which is insane. He's allowed fewer than
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: one hit per inning, which is good, but the strike
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: out rates really low, the walk rates a little bit high,
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: you know.
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: I mean his whip overall, though, is still not really
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: that bad because he's not allowing many hits. So there
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: you go. Arizona basically hasn't faced him before. Only Ronado
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: has ever seen him before, and he's won for three
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: no walks, no strikeouts. So Sugano does have an unfamiliarity
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: advantage here, if you want to call it that. Like
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: a lot of times when hitters haven't faced a guy,
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: they won't do as well. Colorado, by the way, they
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: were returning home from a road trip yesterday, and you know,
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: I talk about when a team returns home from a
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: road trip and they do really bad in that game,
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: sometimes they have a tendency to bounce back in the
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: next game because whatever it was they got distracted by
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: being back at home in the first game, Now that
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: stuff's out of the way, and they're gonna do better
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: in the next game. That could be the case for
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: Colorado here, but I am not gonna have a play
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: on this game. The money is coming in towards Colorado.
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: Arizona's got fifty six percent of tickets on them, sixty
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on Colorado. But you know,
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, if I was gonna go Colorado, I don't
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: even see it, like really that much.
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: Of an angle to do it.
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: Though, other than the situation does favor Colorado, I'll give
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: you that. But I think the starting pitching matchup, you know,
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's debatable, it might favor e Rod Arizona.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: Their bullpen sets up better in this game. So all
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: of that does worry me. I mean, you could go Colorado.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: First five innings. This total is a coarse field total
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: at eleven and a half, but it has gone down.
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: Actually money has hit the under initially a little bit,
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: but now it looks like it's coming back on the over.
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: I could definitely see an argument.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: For an under in the first five here, though, which
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: I know sounds completely insane, But both these pictures look
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: like they have a decent matchup here. Although Sugano does
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: allow too many balls in the air, but I could
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: see an argument for it. You're probably looking at like
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: five and a half in the first five innings there,
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: maybe even higher than that. Which normally I would say,
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: you don't want to go under a high total like
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: that because the total is high for a reason. But
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: I might see some arguments for that in the first
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: five innings. Definitely not full game though. All right, yes, Charles,
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, Rookie of the
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Year is the opposite of reality. Although the younger that
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: you are, the easier it is to bounce back from
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: Tommy John surgery. Alright, Baltimore at Washington. Washington won yesterday.
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: Washington was returning over from a road trip and they
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: still won, which was the same actually for Detroit and
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis. So a lot of those teams overcame that spot, man,
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: which is kind of crazy. Of course, Washington and Saint
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: Louis did it because they're the National League. They're the
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: dominant league. Man. Washington beat Baltimore three to two yesterday.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: You know, surprisingly low scoring. I thought that game had
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: high scoring game written all over it. Like I didn't
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: like the pitching matchup at all in that game. I'm
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: shocked that it was that low scoring. Washington used three
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen in that game. Baltimore used
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: one Baltimore's bullpen is very arrested here. They do have
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: a bullpen advantage in general anyway. Washington's bullpen is not good,
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: the ranked twenty fourth Baltimore's thirteenth, So Baltimore has a
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: little bit of an extra bullpen edge there because they're
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: more rested. Washington's been the better offense their eighth offensively
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: Baltimo more twenty first. Baltimore is going with Chris Bassett.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm not a fan. His numbers are pretty
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: bad this year, five point two to one ERA, one
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: point seven four Whip. He's way worse on the road
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: eight point twenty seven ROADYRA compared to two point nine
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: to one at home. I mean, usually he is better
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: at home, but this is pretty extreme. Man, He's been
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: awful on the road. Although it is a small sample size,
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: but it's three starts worth, it's enough to kind of gauge. Yeah,
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: this guy's not good at home. I don't think he's
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: that good, dude. He bitch well in his last downing,
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: which was of course at home against the A's after
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: a bad road start at Miami. Actually it's four roads
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: starts he's had this year, and three of them have
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: been bad. Washington has okay offensive numbers against, so it's
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: only in nineteen at bat sample size, though six guys
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: have faced him in this lineup one strikeout, one walk.
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: Mead has a home run off him. The honey liquor there,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: Curtis Mead. That sounds really they should call him that
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: the honey liquor. But it's l i q u o R,
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: you know, like Mead, but honey lickor makes it sound
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: like he definitely likes the ladies. Bassett is a lot
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: of two sixty three batting average seven to seventy four
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: ops to Washington, which are not great numbers, so Washington
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: I believe Washington should be able to get to him
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: in this game. Cade Cavali is pitching for Washington. He's
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: a little bit harder to predict, I think, because sometimes
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: he looks like he could be a good pitcher, but
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: he is already twenty seven. His numbers are not very good.
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: Four point h two ERA, one point five to nine
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: whip is very bad. He's been a little bit better
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: at home three point five seventy RA, which is interesting
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: because Washington has been one of the worst pitching teams
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: at home this season. But hasn't really been his fault.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: He's actually been on the better side of that. He's
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: been not great this month with a six to four
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: strike out walk ratio over two starts. He was actually
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: pitching better a couple of starts before that. He was
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: actually quite good at the end of April, but he's
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: kind of gone back into a little bit of a lull,
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: although his most recent start at Miami was okay with
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: four strikeouts one walk. He has a pretty high strikeout
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: rate overall, mostly because it went way up with his
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: last two starts in April, but he does have more
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: than one strike out an inning. He's allowed more than
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: one hit per inning, which is the problem, and his
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: walk rate is a little bit high, but he's only
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: allowed one home runs, so he has not allowed a
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: lot of home runs, which is helping him out. But
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: I think he's getting a little bit lucky because again,
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: his whip is so high that that's like dangerous, like
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: his era should be higher than that. But he does
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: not have a lot of history against Baltimore. Only Alonzo
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: has faced him before because Alonzo was on the Mets,
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: he was in this division. Alonzo won for three with
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: a double off him, but nobody else on Baltimore's faced him,
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: so Cavali might have an extra edge there the unfamiliarity
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: over Baltimore. I lean Washington slightly in this game, probably
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: only first five. Again, as I already pointed out, Baltimore
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: does have a bullpen edge in this game, so I
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: would limit it to first five. Washington. I think they
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: have a starting pitching edge in this game. You know,
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: I don't like Bassett. Fifty tickets eighty seven percent of
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: the cash on Baltimore though, so the money is disagreeing
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: with me. Again, there is money coming in on the over,
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: and I probably wouldn't disagree with the over. I think
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: most of the components here set up for an over.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: I would just be worried that Cavali might actually do
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: well enough that it might limit the runs a little bit.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: But you got, Washington is just really bad in general
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: at pitching at home. Their bullpen is awful. Baltimore's bullpen
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: is not that much better, although they are rested, which
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: gives me a little bit of pause there.
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: But Bassett might do so bad in this game.
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: He might get just jacked early in the game and
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: you know, taken out early in the game. I don't
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: know the totals at ten and the money is going
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: that way seventy seven percent of tickets, ninety percent of
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over. It is that high for
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: a reason, So I don't really disagree with the over there.
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: But you know, yesterday's game was shockingly low scoring too.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: That game's h Fox Sports won for what that's worth.
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think yesterday's game is a little bit
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: of a misleading result probably, Like the fact that this
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: was three to two is crazy. Actually, there weren't that
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: many hits in the game. Both starting pitchers actually did
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: alright six hits on each side. Yeah, that's crazy, But
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: I don't think that that's really what these teams are.
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh. Philadelphia got the win yesterday and a
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: very high scoring eleven to nine win. Like, if you
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: were gonna tell me that that game was gonna be
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: high scoring, I would have liked Pittsburgh more than I
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: even did in that game. I mean I did not
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: have it as a play, but I liked Pittsburgh in
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: the game. Yeah, I mean, Pittsburgh scores a lot of
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: runs at home, dude.
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: They're the second highest.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Scoring home team besides the Yankees in Major League Baseball
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: this year so far. But Philadelphia unloaded offensively yesterday. Their
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: offense seems to be getting better, which I thought would
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: happen because you look at who they have in the lineup,
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: it's like they couldn't possibly be that bad forever. Philadelphia
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: used a lot of guys out of the bullpen in
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: that one, these five guys out of the bullpen. Pittsburgh
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: used four. And I don't even think it was an
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: extra inning game. Oh no, it was my mistake. It
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: did go to extra inning, so that definitely increased the
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: runs in that game. Yeah, there were four runs scored
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: in the tenth inning and Philadelphia scored three in the
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: ninth inning. So Pittsburgh was on the verge of winning
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: that game and their bullpen blew it.
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's crazy.
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: Both these bullpens are pretty bad. Well, I don't want
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: to say pretty bad, but they're mediocre ish. Philadelphia is
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: fourteenth down bullpen, so they've been okay, but their whip
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: indicates they're not as good as their era might suggest.
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's bullpen a little bit worse than that at twentieth
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: I don't really love any of that. Pirates offense has
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: been good. They're seventh, and Philadelphia is still not ranked
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: too well nineteenth, though they have been moving up the
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: rankings offensively. Uh, Christophers Sanchez. I mean, this is not
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: a game that I would expect to be high scoring
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: with this starting pitching matchup, although the bullpens are definitely questionable.
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: But Christopher Sanchez is pitching for Philly. He's been pretty good.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, his ERA is really good, a two point
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: one to one. His whip is still a little bit
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: too high one point two eight, but he's been good overall.
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: He has not been good on the road though, six
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: point nine to seven roadra but it's an extremely small
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: sample size. It was two games against San Francisco and
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: the Cubs. The Cubs lit him up, but it is
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: concerning that San Francisco got a lot of hits off him.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: So his road starts have been his two worst starts
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: of the season, so that is still concerning. He's been
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: really good recently though. His last three starts have all
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: been really good. This month, he has a seventeen to
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: one strike out walk ratio zero ERA and has allowed
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: nine hits and fifteen innings, both at home, though both
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: of those starts at home against the A's and the Rockies.
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: Rockies, I mean not impressive to do that to them.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: A's offense is pretty good, but they're not as good
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: away from home. Still, Sanchez is a good pitcher. His
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: numbers against Pittsburgh are fine. In fifty eight at bats
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: fourteen to five strikeout walk ratio is not excellent, but
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: two fifty nine batting average allowed six twenty eight ohps,
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: that's pretty good. I do expect Sanchez to pitch better
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: here than he has in his other road starts. I
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: will say that I think he matches up okay here.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Bubba Chandler is pitching for the Pirates and he's definitely
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: got good stuff. He's still really young, so I think
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: he is going to eventually emerge as a pretty good starter.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: He's shown glimpses of that, but right now I don't
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: think he's that trustworthy. Four point six to two ERA
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: one point four to six whip. He's been a little
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: bit better at home four point one to one home ERA.
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: He pitched decent in his last which was on the
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: road at San Francisco, but that's a picture friendly park
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: in a very weak offense. He's still only had three
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: strikeouts in that game though, and the outing before that
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: he had six walks in five innings at Arizona. You
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: can't do that, man. So overall this month seven to
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: seven strikeout walk ratio. That is not good. He has
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: way too many walks this season, unbelievable amount of walks.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: The number of hits he's allowed is good, it's well
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: below one per inning. His strikeout rate you'd like to
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: see higher given that. I think he does have good
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: strikeouts up, but he has fewer than one per inning.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: The amount of walks is crazy, like he's walking getting
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: close to one per inning, which is really bad. So
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I could trust him man, But
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: Philly has never based him before, so he does have
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: that advantage. I guess the unfamiliarity edge.
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: I still consider him to be a talented young pitcher,
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: and maybe he'll do better against Philly the first couple
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: of times they see him.
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: They have to figure him out.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: As far as Sanchez, by the I forgot to go
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: over his season wide numbers, He's got way over one
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: strike upper inning. His walk rate is pretty low, especially
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: given how many strikeouts he has. He's allowed a few
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: too many hits though, Sanchez more than one hit per inning,
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: so he's actually been too hittable.
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: It's kind of been the problem with him.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: But yeah, overall, Sanchez is the much more established pitcher
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: in this game. So I I think I have to
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: lean to Philadelphia here in this game. And the money
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: seems to agree fifty seven percent of tickets ninety percent
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them, but they're laying like a
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: pretty ridiculous price here at minus one seventy or so.
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: So I mean, if you did that, you'd have to
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: do like a split bet run line money line. I
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: don't really love that, uh you know, Yeah, I mean
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: I don't necessarily see a better way of playing this.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: The money's coming in towards the under. I mean, I
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: could see some arguments for a first five under the
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: full game totals eight and a half, but you could
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: potentially see both pitchers pitch okay, So I wouldn't really
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: disagree with an under in the first five. Do with
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: that information what you want. But I think Sanchez has
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: the edge there, So I don't know. I mean, I
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: think Philly split bet run line money line might be
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: the better way to play that. I don't know. Pirates.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, I still don't know if I fully buy
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: them because they're I don't know, people were over hyping
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: them at the beginning of the season.
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, they have schemes.
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're starting pitching rotation is decent, like these
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: guys like Chandler should probably start pitching better at some point.
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's bullpen is definitely a problem.
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, and they're I don't know, They're just too
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: young of a team for me to really just I
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: don't know. I just don't really see them doing a
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: whole lot like they might. Maybe they sneak into the
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: playoffs as a wild card, but I don't see really
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: much beyond that, if they even are able to do that,
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: I don't know. The National League is very, very powerful,
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: and I think Pittsburgh is probably the third best team
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: in their own division. Like, I don't think they're as
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: good as either the Cobs or the Brewers. So and
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis has been playing better than expected, although I
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: still think Pittsburgh is probably better than them. Cincinnati is
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: the worst team in that division. Miami at Tampa Bay.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay returned home from a road trip, but still
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: won yesterday seven to two, even though I didn't like
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: the starting pitching matchup for them. They're basically going bullpen
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: game ish against Jansen Junk and they still won that game.
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay continues to I think overperform, even though I
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: don't think Tampa's a bad team.
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: I think they're better than people, you know, thought that they.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: Were at the beginning of the season. But their record
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: is not indicative of what they are right now. They're
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: not as good as their record right now. Tampa Bay
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: used two relief pitchers yesterday. Miami has had a really
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: good bullpen this year. They used two as well. Miami
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: is ranked second in bullpen right now, pretty good stuff.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay has been better in the bullpen for a
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: while now, though they're eleventh now, though their eray is
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: still kind of high, but their bullpen's pretty good. But
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: I think Miami has the better bullpen. Tampa has been
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: better offensively. They're eleventh right now. Miami has falling off
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: down to twenty first. Tampa's got the better offense. Sandy
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: Alcandre is pitching for the Marlins here. Overall numbers are
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: decent for him this year three point nine ERA one
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: point twenty seven whip. He's been pretty bad on the
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: road though, six ERA on the road, that's not a
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: good sign. This month, he had one really bad start
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: and one really one pretty good start. I guess I
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: would say the bad start at home against Baltimore the
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: good start at home against Washington. But overall, on eight
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: to five strike out walk ratio this month and a
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: seven point eight four ERA because he allowed so many
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: runs against Baltimore doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. But
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: you could argue that Baltimore start was kind of a
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: fluke because most of his recent starts he's allowed two
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: or three earned runs. So maybe he know he bounced
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: back a little bit with that start against Washington. Maybe
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: he's trending back into the right direction here. But his
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: overall numbers concerned me. I mean, Alcandrum, I mean, people
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: were talking about cy Young potential early this season. I'm like,
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: you gotta be kidding me, dude, There's no way, because
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: we just haven't seen him have his velocity at all
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: since he had Tommy John surgery I think possibly twice.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: His velocity just hasn't been there anymore.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: He's not that Cy Young pitcher that he was years ago.
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: You can tell because his strikeout rate is really low,
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: like way way way below one strike up er inning.
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: The number of walks is a little bit high, you know.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: I mean that's like the strikeout rate plus the number
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: of walks that's a concern. And then he hasn't allowed
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: that many hits though, so he is doing what he
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: can with his limited stuff. I guess he's not allowing
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: that many hits, so he is still pitching pretty effectively
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: given how weak his stuff is at this point, So
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: you got to give him credit for that. Against him
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: O Bay, he does not have good numbers though, in
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: forty one at bats two ninety three batting average eight
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: thirty eight ops four to two strikeout walk ratiom not great.
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: He's going up against Nick Martinez, who has been surprisingly
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: good his first season with the Rays. They seem to
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: get a lot out of their pitching man because you
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: look at who the Rays have as their pitchers and
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: you're like, who the.
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: Fuck are these guys?
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Even though Taj Bradley has
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: actually started pitching better away from Tampa but now that
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: he's on Minnesota. But Tampa Bay has got a bunch
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: of starters that are like nobody knows who the fuck
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: they are, and they're pitching way better than you would expect.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: Martinez is one of them. One point seventy r a
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: one point zero five whip. I mean, he's a veteran pitcher.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: I think he's you know, he's been a decent pitcher
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: throughout his career. Not this good. I do expect his
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: numbers to regress, though, but he's been pretty good. His
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: home road splits are not very significant either. He's allowed
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: one or fewer earned run in all but two starts
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: this season and never allowed more than the tour and
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: runs this season. His strike cut rate is not high,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: but he's not putting guys on base either. A very
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: low walk rate, very low hit rate, well below one
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: per inning. So you know, give him credit. He's pitching effectively.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: Even though his strike cut rate is not that good.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Miami are pretty good. Thirty six at bats.
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: They've seen a decent amount of him because he was
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: in the National League prior to this year. He has
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: nine strike cuts against them, three walks, two fifty batting
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: average allowed, five to eighty five ops. Pretty good numbers there.
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: So Martinez clearly has the better matchup numbers here. I
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: think I would lean Tampa Bay in this one, even
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: though I know they won yesterday. You know, could be
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: a bounce back from Miami. Like I think Miami is
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: somewhat the better team, but the money is telling you
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: that that's not even the case. I mean the market, Reid,
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: I sure, the odds makers. I mean Tampa Bay is
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: around like a minus one forty something favorite here. So
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: theers are telling you either Tampa Bay is a better
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: team or maybe the line's a little bit skewed because
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: it has to be because Tampa's record looks way too good.
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: But also I think they're telling you maybe Tampa as
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: a decent pitching matchup here. But the money is also
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: backing Tampa seventy three percent of tickets seventy eight percent
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them.
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: I think I.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: Agree, and I don't think the bullpen disparity is really
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: that much, So I think full game you could do that.
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: If you wanted to go first five and just focus
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: on the starting pitching, you could do that as well.
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: With Tampa Bay. Not really a strong opinion for me,
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: though I still think Tampa Bay is going to regress
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: to some extent because they just have too many close
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: wins man, even though they do a lot with their
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: limited amount of talent. So give them credit for that,
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: all right, Cy Young? In the National League, you mean
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: Paul skans Is, Like, I don't even think it's that close.
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: Paul Skeens has been completely dominant unless he gets hurt
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: or something.
• 41:59
  Speaker 5: I think it has to be him.
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know who else would it be. Who else
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: is even up there? And I was gonna say in
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: the American League, you know it would have been schoolable,
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: But dude, the American League, I'm I'm gonna say it's
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: gonna be Schlittler on the Yankees.
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: Like what can I say he has?
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: I think he has the best numbers in the American League.
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna look at the odds real quick to see
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: how far off I am here. Schlitzler does have the
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: best odds right now in the American League. He's an
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: underdog though against the field plus two sixty. Don't cease
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: his next and then I don't. I don't think it
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: should be ceased. I mean he just walks too many guys, dude.
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: Then de Gram, Max Fried and then Jose Soriano's tailed off,
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: so I was correct about both favorites. By the way,
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: Skeens is plus one forty to win the National League,
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: but Sanchez is right behind him at plus one sixty,
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: Otani and Yamamoto or both behind that at plus seven hundred,
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: or actually, sorry, Chris Sales plus five point fifty, then
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: Otani and Yamamoto at plus seven hundred. Yeah, the National
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: League is a bit a little bit more up in
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: the air, but I'm still I'm gonna stick with Schemes
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: and Schlittler. Yeah, unfortunately, because Schlitler is from Massachusetts and
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: he pitches for the Evil Empire, and he makes shit
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: up like I'm pretty sure he just outright lied about
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: getting death threats from Red Sox fans. I don't think so, man.
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Red Sox fans are too busy threatening
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: their own players because they've been that bad. So Red
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: Sox fans don't give a fuck about Schlitler. Dude. They got,
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: you know, mildly angry about him pitching well against him
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: in the Wildcard last year, but that was about it.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: A lot of them didn't even know who he was
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: going into this year, So all right, next game is
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati Cleveland the Battle of Ohio. Cincinnati won yesterday seven
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: to six. I do not think Cincinnati is that good
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: of team, though, like Cleveland is the better pitching team,
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: and this pitching matchup though, like, on the surface, this
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: looks like it's a bad pitching matchup on the Cincinnati side,
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: but you dig into it more, that's actually not true.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: Although I don't like Cincinnati's bullpen, Cincinnati has five, they
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: use five relief pitchers yesterday too, and their bullpen is
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: bad to begin with. Cleveland used three. Cleveland definitely has
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: a better bullpen. Cleveland has ranked twelfth than bullpen right now,
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: though the era is not really that good. Cincinnati's the
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: era is still worse than that, and they've fallen completely
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: in the tank. They're twenty eighth in bullpen. They're not good.
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati offensively has actually moved up because dude, they were
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: like a bottom several offense and after two offensive explosions
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: they're all the way up to sixteenth offensively, which is
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: kind of insane. Although I think Cincinnati is not like
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: a total bottom of the barrel offense like they had
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: been earlier this year. Cleveland's offense is actually worse at
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: twenty fourth. I don't think his offense is very good,
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: but Cleveland is the better pitching team generally. They will
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: be going up against Chris Paddock, who apparently Miami had
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: enough of him and they got rid of him already,
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: and the Reds picked him up. Paddock, you know he's
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I mean, teams are still in
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: need of pitching, like whatever pitching they can get. Like basically, oh,
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: this guy has an arm and he's pitched in the
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: majors as far. All right, we're gonna sign you. So
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: the Reds picked him up. He's been bad this year.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: All these numbers were with Miami seven point sixty three
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: ERA one point sixty six whip bad, bad numbers. But
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: he was good on the road, which this makes no
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: sense to me at all. I know it's a small
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: sample size, but Miami pretty pitcher friendly park and his
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: home ERA fifteen fifteen point eight eight with them, but
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: two point seventy nine on the road makes no sense.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati will see how he does in Cincinnati. He's not
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: pitching there today, but that is a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: Lucky for him, he gets to pitch in a more
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: pitcher friendly ballpark in Cleveland here, so he might actually
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: pitch well. He's got a two point seventy nine Rody
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: Ray this year. He had a horrible start against Philly
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: last time out with Miami, hasn't pitched since May third,
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: Miami got rid of him. His overall numbers, you know,
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: they're obviously not good. His strikeout rate is actually not
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: horrible though in his walk rate really isn't that bad.
• 46:27
  Speaker 5: But he's been way too hittable.
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: He's allowed way more than one hit per inning, so
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: like almost like one and a half per inning. So
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: that's been the problem. He's like he's just throwing pitches
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: right over the plate. Maybe something is gonna get fixed here.
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: He actually has good numbers against Cleveland though, in forty
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: eight at bats, which is a decent sample, five to
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: one strike out, walk ratio won, sixty seven average allowed,
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: four thirty four ohps. Those are pretty good numbers from Paddock. Dude.
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: He might actually have a good matchup here, and he
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: might actually be pumped to be pitching again, because think
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: about it, like when a team gets rid of you
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: and you don't know where you're gonna be going, you
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? And then another team like puts
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: their stock in you with their money. You know what
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: I mean. You want to pitch well for them in
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: your first start for them, You know what I mean,
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: because you want to earn your contract basically. So I
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: think Paddock might actually pitch well in this game. He
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: will be opposed by Joey Cantillo. I don't know Cleveland
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: made a starting pitching change because it was gonna be
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: Gavin Williams. I don't know why they decided to switch
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: pitching here. I don't know Cantillo. He's got a good
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: to e RA this year two point nine to eighty RA,
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: one point three to two whip is not very good,
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: though he's been pretty good at home though, two point
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: oh eight Homie RA. He's pitched decently this month. Cleveland's
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: won all three of his starts this month three RA.
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: But the problem is he's got a seven to seven
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: strike up walk race here this month, and that is
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: not good. So that should concern you. He's got too
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: many walks, man, that's his problem. His strikeout rate is decent,
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: it's close to one per inning. He's got a ton
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: of walks. He's walking almost one guy every two winnings,
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: and he's not allowing that many hits, fewer than one
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: per inning, so his problem is walks. He's too wild.
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: But he might actually do okay here because Cincinnati has
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: basically never seen him before.
• 48:18
  Speaker 5: Other than Benson and Low are.
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: A combined zero for two, often with a strikeout, so
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: he has unfamiliarity on his side here. You know, this
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: is a pitching matchup nobody's gonna pay attention to. But
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: I think there are some arguments to be made for
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: a first five inning under here. I would not go
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: full game with it. Cincinnati's bullpend you definitely want to avoid.
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: Cleveland's is okay, but first five innings, like these pitchers,
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: believe it or not, I think might actually pitch well.
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: And nobody's gonna think that. Like people don't know who
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: these pitchers are. They're gonna see paddocks awful numbers. Eight
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: and a half is the full game total here, and
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: we've seen a lot of low scoring games in this
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: Cleveland stadium this year as well, a lot of it
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: because Cleveland's offense isn't good and they're pitching is fairly good.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: Money is headed towards the over, though sixty six percent
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: of tickets, seventy six percent of the cash on the over.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: That's full game, though, and Cleveland is a big favorite
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: at minus one sixty five. I'm not sure that that's justified,
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: man Like, do you think Cantio deserves to be that
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: heavy of a favorite really against like anybody? I don't know,
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: man Like, maybe I don't know. I mean, I know
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati is not a very good team. They're not as
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: good as their record looks. The money's coming in on Cincinnati, though,
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: sixty nine percent of tickets on Cleveland, only fifty percent
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Cleveland. I would say that if
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: you're going to play Cincinnati, it's got to be first
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: five innings. You cannot play their bullpen, you know. But
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: I don't really want to do that because they think
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: both starting pitchers might actually do okay here.
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: It might wind up being a duel.
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: But I do think Paddock might do surprisingly well in
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: that game, So you know that. I think that's why
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: the market looks the way that it does. Battle of
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: Chicago Cubs White Sox. The Cubs won the game pretty
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: easily yesterday, ten to five.
• 50:08
  Speaker 5: I think they had a.
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: Bigger leieve than that. For a lot of the game,
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: so I was right. I leaned it to the Cubs
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: in that game yesterday. That was correct. This game might
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: be a little bit different though. White Sox did just
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: lose a win streak though, and you know, a lot
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: of times I talk about how when a team lose
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: the win streak. White Sox had won five games in
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: a row. A lot of times, when you lose a
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: win streak, it hangs you over into the next game.
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: But they're not going to overlook the Cobs man one
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: of the top teams in baseball, who also happens to
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: be their main geographic rival. Problem for the White Sox
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: is their bullpen's bad, and they used a bunch of
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: guys out of it yesterday. They use five relief pitchers.
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: The Cubs have the better bullpen and they only use three.
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: Cubs definitely have a bullpen edge. They rank seventh and
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: bullpen and then they have the rest edge on top
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: of it. White Sox are twenty fifth and bullpen not good.
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: Both teams have actually been good offensively, Cubs fourth, White
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: Sox ninth, which is still surprising to me. I know,
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: but this pitching matchup actually looks like these pitchers might
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: actually pitch well. Jameson tie On is pitching for the Cubs.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good this year three point nine to
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: four ERA, one point one for a whip. He's been
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: a pretty consistent pitcher really throughout his career. He's been
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse on the road this year four
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: point two to four ERA, but he's been pretty consistent.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: Like I said, he's only allowed more than three or
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: in runs twice this season, in more than four only once.
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: He's got a decent strikeout rate, close to one per inning.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is fairly low. He's allowed well below
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: one hit per inning, so that's good. His problem is
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: he's an extreme fly ball pitcher. He allows a lot
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: of home runs. He's a lot of eleven home runs
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: this season. That's an issue. This month, he's been pretty solid.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: He's allowed fewer than one hit per inning and two starts,
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: but it was against the Reds and Texas, who aren't
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: exactly powerful offenses, and he still love two of them
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: runs in the game against the Reds. Nine strikeouts, three
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: walks overall this month, not too bad numbers Against the
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: White Sox, they're not great, but they're not awful. In
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: twenty five at bats. It's a small sample, only six
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: of their hitters have faced him. Three strikeouts, one walk,
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: two to eighty batting average is too high, but it's
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: all singles. No extra base hits here, seven to eight
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: oh ps. That's not too bad, so I think tie
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: on more likely than not, he probably does pitch well here.
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: He'll be going up against one of the big surprises
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: so far this season, Davis Martin, who somehow is pitching
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: really well for the White Sox this year at the
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: age of twenty nine. One point six to two ERA
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: one whip. I mean, based nobody's done throughout his career.
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: You gotta think that these numbers are gonna get worse.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: But he's been good. He's been really good at home
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: one point oh two home ERA. He's allowed two or
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: fewer on runs in every start since his first start
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: of the season, in which he allowed three. He's allowed
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: one or fewer in every start besides that one that
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: he allowed two against Kansas City. He's allowed one or
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: fewer in five starts in a row. Now this month,
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: he has a nineteen to two strikeout walk ratio thirteen
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: innings and only eight hits in one run allowed against
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: Anaheim and Seattle. I mean, those offenses are not as
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: good as the Cubs, but still this is some good stuff, man.
• 53:29
  Speaker 5: But the Cubs will be the best offense.
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: He's faced all season, so you do have to put
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: that into perspective. But he's pitching really well so far,
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: but again mostly against fairly weak offenses. Doesn't have a
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: whole lot of track record against the Cubs. Eight at bats,
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: only four of their hitters have faced him, no strikeouts,
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: two walks, two fifty average eight thirty oh ps is
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: a little bit high, but it's such a small sample.
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: It's just because there are two walks from Carson Kelly
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: and a double from Alex brand Men, so I think
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: both pitchers might actually pitch well here. I would lean
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: under first five innings in this one. I think I
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: might have said that in yesterday's game, and I don't
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: think that was correct yesterday. But I think in this
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: game it might be lower scoring than yesterday. Man, the
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: money doesn't seem to agree on the under, at least
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: for the full game. Ninety three percent of tickets eighty
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the over. I don't see
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: the public coming in and playing an under in this game.
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: Though the total in the full game is around eight
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: and a half, which is like in no man's land there.
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: But I do think there are arguments for a first
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: five under here you got unfamiliarity. Both pictures have been
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: solid this year. They don't have matchup numbers that scare me,
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: so under first five innings I think would be my
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: strongest opinion. Here. Cubs are getting the money, which I
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: don't know about that either. Fifty two percent of tickets
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: on the White Sox, sixty eight percent of the cash
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: on the Cubs. If you're gonna go Cubs here, the
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: Cubs are a slight favorite, but it's really like a
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: pick the winner price. I would go full game if
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: you're gonna go Cubs, because you want the bullpen advantage,
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: and that's the big advantage they have in the game,
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: is the bullpen. But I could see an argument for
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: going first five White Sox here. Man Like, just overall,
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: it looks way too easy to play the Cubs here,
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: doesn't it. They won the game easily yesterday. They're the
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: team with the better record, the team that's been way
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: better over the recent years. So I don't see how
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: the percentages look like this to me. It looks like
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: the public could be hammering the Cubs in this game.
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: You know, both pitchers have decent numbers, do you really
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: I don't know they looking at Martin's era and being like,
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: oh yeah, I want to back this guy I've never
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: heard of. I'm not so sure that they are. So.
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, there might be some value, well maybe not
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: necessarily value, But to me, it looks like the line
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: is a trap, is what I mean to say. So
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: it might make sense to play the White Sox because
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: of that, but I would do it first five innings
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: if you're gonna go White Sox here, because they definitely
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: have a big bullpen disadvantage. So White so five makes
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: some sense to me, But they might actually be a
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: favorite in the first five. Next game up is going
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: to be a play for me. Finally, White Sox. I mean,
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: if the season ended right now, they'd be in the playoffs,
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: but I don't necessarily know that that's gonna be the case.
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: And the American League is just absolutely atrocious, and that's
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: part of the reason why the record is as good
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: as it is. The American League. This is like the
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: biggest disparity between the two leagues. I think I've ever seen,
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: like the entire American League besides the Yankees and maybe
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: the Rays, is absolutely horrible and the National League is
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: very good, which pisses me off because I don't like
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: the Yankees, and the Yankees get to face weak competition
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: and they get to do that all the way to
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: the World Series. Like, I see no possibility that the
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: Yankees don't make the World Series here, I don't see
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: how it happens. I know it's baseball, and crazy stuff
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: can happen. It's a close game, but I would be
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: if the Yankees don't make the World Series, and then
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: I would just hope that the National League team they're
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: facing is a good one and is able to beat them.
• 57:10
  Speaker 5: But I think it would be a close series.
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: All right. This next game is going to be a
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: play for me. This one, I think is gonna be
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: one that is under the radar. We're gonna take an
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: under first five innings in Milwaukee, Minnesota, and I found
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: this at four and a half at minus one seventeen.
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: There are a lot of fours out there as well,
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: at like even money basically, so you could do that
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: as well, but I like to get, you know, an
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: extra half run especially if I don't have to pay
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: up to minus one twenty on it, you know what
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, and it's less than that like I did yesterday.
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: I went seven and a half under at minus one
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: eighteen in that Yankee Mets game, and that stupid garbage
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: time run by the Mets put it at seven on
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: the full game. So you know, I like getting it
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: when I can. That doesn't sound good. Let's look at
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: this match up here. Though yesterday's game was pretty low scoring.
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: It was a three to two final. Milwaukee's actually been
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: playing some low scoring games recently. I know Minnesota hasn't really,
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: but look at Milwaukee recently. Man just overall in their
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: last seven games, only two of them have seen more
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: than seven runs scored, So you know they've been playing
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: some low scoring games in general, and some of those
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: were against the Yankees. One of them was a low
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: scoring game against the Twins yesterday. Now I'm keeping the
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: bullpens out of the equation though, because I can't back
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's bullpen. They only I mean, they used four relief
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. A couple of them didn't throw that many pitches.
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: But I just don't trust Minnesota's bullpen at all. Milwaukee's
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: bullpen is fine, but they did use their closer yesterday McGill.
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: They used three relief pitchers yesterday. So I'm just gonna
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: keep the bullpens out. I mean, Minnesota is the second
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: worst bullpen in baseball. They blow possible literally, they blow
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: blowing saves. Milwaukee's been decent, They're at eighteenth and their
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: era is pretty good, but I'm still gonna exclude the bullpens.
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's bullpen can get out of this equation offensively. These
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: teams are not terrific. Minnesota is at fourteenth, Brewers are
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: at twentieth. They are getting better because they're getting some
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: of their guys back. But I don't think these are
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: like you know, we're not looking at upperrational on offenses here.
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: And I think these pictures, these pictures are gonna just
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: completely go under the radar. Dude, nobody knows who these
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: pictures are. But that's what I like. When you find
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: these I like young guys. You know, when you get
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: these I sound like John Gruden. When you get these
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: young pictures who nobody knows who they are, and you
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: dig into their stats and they're actually pretty good, that's
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: where you want to like. I think that's where you
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: find value. Like, I think this number is fairly high
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: for this total here. Logan Henderson is gonna be pitching
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: for the Brewers. He's got a four point one five ERA,
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: and I know that doesn't look good, but it's a
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: small sample size right now, and he's got a point
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: ninety two whip so he's not putting guys on base.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: He's made three appearances so far.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: He just faced the Yankees.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: Dude. He faced Washington on the road and then the Yankees,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: and he held each of them to tour in runs.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: And he had a thirteen to one strike out walk
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: ratio over that span of eleven innings, only allowing seven hits.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good because those offenses have been top ten
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: offenses this year, so that's a good sign to me. Overall.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: He's got a sixteen to two strike out walk ratio
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: so far in thirteen innings with ten hits allowed. I'm
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: liking what I see there, although I worry that he's
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: an extreme fly ball pitcher, but we're not looking at
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: a stadium that that matters as much. He's been a
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: little bit worse on the road. Yeah, four point five
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: yar around the road, but it's such a small sample.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 5: It's kind of like whatever.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: That was his first start of the season against Kansas
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: City and they just limited him to two innings, so
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: you know, if he kept pitching, he might have pitched better.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: And he really he didn't do that badly in that outing.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: And he's got an unfamiliarity edge here because for Minnesota,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: only Josh Bell has ever faced him before, oh for
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: one with a walk, so he's unfamiliar to the opposing offenses.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: I think he's a decent to the opposing offense. I
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: think he's a decent pitcher. So I think he's got
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: some advantages in this game for sure. As I always say,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: the offense, when they haven't seen a pitcher before, they
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: they have to spend a few at bats figuring him out,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: so a lot of times they aren't good the first
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: couple of times they see him. And Henderson did make
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: five starts last season and he had a one point
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: seven to eighty RA point nine to nine whip, had
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: over one strike out per inning and only had eight
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: walks and had a four point one strikeout walk.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 5: Ratio, So he was good last year.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: So that's another indicator that you know, that gives us
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: more of a sample size to look at, like, oh, yeah,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: this guy's pitched well at the major league level, so
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: I like that. Then on the other side, Connor pre
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: Lips pitcher from Minnesota, and he's actually been pretty good
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: for them so far. Three point three two ERA one whip.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: He's a rookie. He's made four starts so far, but
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: he's been pretty good. His walk numbers a little bit high.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: I'll grant you that he's got twenty one strikeout seven walks.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: Across four starts so far.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: You'd like to see that walk number be better, But
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: the rest of his numbers are good. The walk number
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: is still not really that high. Only twelve hits allowed
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: in nineteen innings. This is all looking pretty decent to me. Man,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: he's not been that hittable. Hasn't faced great offense as
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: though he's faced the Mets, Seattle, Toronto, and Cleveland, but
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean, Milwaukee hasn't been the greatest offense either.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty similar home and away. The home road
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: splits are not very significant. This month, he's pitched okay,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: just the number of walks you'd like to see me
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: a little bit better, but he's allowed two or fewer
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: on runs and every start he's made this season so
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: far ten to four strikeout walk razure this month, fewer
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: than one hit per inning, and if you've noticed, he's
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: gone five innings exactly in his last three outings. So
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: it seems like they're limiting him to five innings. But
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: guess what, that's all right for us because we're going
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: first five here because we don't want the Minnesota bullpen anyway.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: So if they're gonna limit pre lip to five innings again,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: that's fine with this play here. Milwaukee Minnesota first five
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: under is gonna be the play. Oh yeah, and prelip
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: against Milwaukee. They've never faced him before, obviously, because he's
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: a newcomer to the league or to the majors this year,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: and he's in the other league, so I think he
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: has that extra edge of being unfamiliar there. So I
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: like this as far as the market read, though where
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: is this game? The money does not seem to agree.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: We got eighty percent of ticket seventy two percent of
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: the cash on the under that is full game though
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: full game total at eight and a half. But whatever,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: the money is actually coming in on Minnesota though, which
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: actually I kind of like that because I think Prelip
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: is the less proven picture right now. I talked about
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: that with some of my unders yesterday. When you see
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: the money indicating on the less proven pitcher, that's a
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: good sign that that kind of indicates that both pitchers
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: are expected to actually pitch decently. Uh sixty six percent
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: of tickets, fifty nine percent of the cash. On Milwaukee,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: they're REMNUS one twenty five favorite or so, which I
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: think is justified. I think they are the better team here,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: especially in the bullpen though, But that gives me some
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: confidence that some of the money is actually backing Prelip,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: even though the money doesn't look like it's coming in
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: on the under that. Remember that money is full game,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: so it is factoring in Minnesota's awful bullpen, and we're
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: not in our play here, So there you go. Total
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: is sitting around eight and a half for the full game,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: all right. Usually I take a break about the hour mark.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: How many games I have left to talk about?
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 5: Six?
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: Usually I have five left? All right, let's do Texas Houston.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: Houston won two to not thing yesterday. Absolutely shocking that
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: Houston pitched a shutout. What are we doing here with
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: Houston's pitching staff makes no but Texas is not a
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: good offense. But even so, Houston has had the worst
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: pitching staff in baseball. Dude, they're awful, Like they don't
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: even really have that many good starters. That was Spencer
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: Arraghetty though, and Arraghetty has been pitching well, and I
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: like that he's a Talion and I like his hair.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 5: So you know, I'm not.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: Expecting Houston to shut out Texas this time though. I
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: think you're gonna see him motivated Texas team here. You know,
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: Texas potentially is in a bounce back spot. When teams
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: get shut out like that a lot of times they
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: will bounce back and play better in the next game.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: Texas definitely has a better starting pitcher here. They only
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: used one relief pitcher over the last two days. They
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: have the way better bullpen anyway, and they're pretty rested here.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: Houston only used one relief pitcher yesterday as well, though,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: But again, Houston has the worst bullpen in baseball. They're
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: still ranked dead last, and it's I guess fairly close
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: with Minnesota and Whip, but Houston clearly has the worst bullpen.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: They're awful. Texas has a good bullpen and they're one
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: of the best. They might still have the best bullpen
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: ray No, Atlanta does, actually.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 5: But Texas is right up there.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: They're eighth in WHIP, but yeah, Texas clearly is the
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. Houston is fifth offensively still, so their offense
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: has been better. Texas does struggle offensively twenty six, but
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: Texas is typically way better on offense on the road though,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: Like their home stadium is just very pitcher friendly. They
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: don't hit well at home. Opposing teams don't hit well
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: in that stadium either. Texas usually hits better on the road,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: even though they're still not a good offense, but they
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: usually are better on the road.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 5: They got Jacob de Gram on the mound.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: Looking at this pitching matchup, it looks like a huge
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: mismatch in favor of Texas. Degram is really good, of course,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: as we said, he's mentioned in the cy Young odds.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: There is one of the top like five al pitchers
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: so far two point six to two era point nine
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: to two WHIP. That's some good stuff. Hasn't been as
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: good on the road though, four point twenty nine road
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: ERA so you might have to worry about him a
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: little bit on the road, did Evin if he start
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: against the Yankees in his last road game, But I'm
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: gonna give him a pass for that because the Yankees
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: can hit. The Yankees had just seen him in the
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: previous start that he made, and he still had seven
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: strikeouts in one walk in that game. He only allowed
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: seven hits. I mean, he got a little bit unlucky
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: in that game to allow six runs. If you take
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: that start out, He's allowed one or fewer earned runs
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: in every start since his first start of the season,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: So he's been pitching really well this month. He's got
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: seventeen to one strike out walk ratio and fewer than
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: one hit a lout per inning.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 5: His overall numbers are crazy.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: Fifty seven to eight strike out walk ratio and well
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: below one hit per inning allowed. We get it to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: Grom's an elite pitchers. Still, his numbers against Houston are
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: very good as well. In fifty nine at bats, twenty
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 3: three strikeouts, one walk, that's really good, one to fifty
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: three batting average allowed, five to forty oh ps. He's
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: got dominant numbers against Houston, even though they've been one
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: of the better offenses this year.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 5: I expect de Grom to pitch well.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: Even though he pitch well on the road this year,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: I still think it lines up for him to pitch well.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: His road numbers are being skewed by basically one bad start.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: Houston is gonna be going with Kaiwei Tang, who does
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: have decent numbers this year, but most of it was
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: pitching out of the bullpen. Three point one two ERA,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: one point oh eight whip, those are good numbers. He's
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: been a little bit better at home two point four
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: or five home ERA, But I don't know how deep
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: he's gonna go because they just moved him into the
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: starting rotation recently, they moved him out of the bullpen.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: He gave up three runs in three innings last time out.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: It was at Great American Ballpark though in Cincinnati, which
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: is a hitter friendly park. But I don't I don't know, man,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I fully trust Tang. You know,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: he was pitching pretty well out of the bullpen though.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 5: He's got a.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: Decent strikeout rate this year, but usually relievers do. He
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: hasn't allowed that many walks or hits this year, but
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know how trustworthy. He really is, and you
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: can kind of look at his previous numbers. He was
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: on San Francisco for two seasons. Last year he made
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: seven starts, and his numbers were quite bad last year
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: six point three seventy r a one point five to
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 3: five whip. I know he's pitching a lot better this year,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: but I don't know if he's fully trustworthy. Texas has
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: never seen him though, except Nimo is over one offen
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: with a strikeout, so he might do okay just because
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: he is unfamiliar to Texas. But Houston is very likely
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: going to their bullpen first in this game, and that
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 3: is not good because their bullpen is awful. So I
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: think I have to lean to Texas year in the
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: bounce back spot with the better pitching all throughout this game.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: In my opinion, the money is not agreeing. The money's
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: coming in on Houston. I don't quite get it, man.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, it looks like the money is supporting what
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: Tang has done so far this year. You know, again,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: it's been all out of the bullpen for him though.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: And if you're gonna have Houston's bullpen coming into this
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: game somewhere around the fourth inning, I don't see them
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: winning this game. I know they pitched well yesterday, but whatever,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: eighty one percent of tickets on Texas fifty the cash
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: on Houston public looks like they want to back de
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: Gram plus Texas does have a better record. Texas is
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: in the minus one forty something range. I think that's
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: still what I would do, though. I think I would
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: still money line Texas in that game. That's just how
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: I see it. Next game up is gonna be a
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: play for me. I'm gonna take a quick break for
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: a second. Yeah, those one best bet Paisanos. The Calzone
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: good episode. It's it's a miss uh misrepresentation that people
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: say that, oh, Seinfeld got really bad in the final
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: seasons or whatever.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 5: That's not true.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: People's opinion is completely skewed by the fact that the
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 3: finale was bad, like the two part finale. Yeah, the
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: finale was really bad for Seinfeld, but like every episode
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: besides that in the final season was still good, Like
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: if you go back in the kel Zone one was
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: one of them, I'm pretty sure, and like the Frogger
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: episode was one of them. Like there were some really
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: really good episodes in that last season. At none of
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: the episodes are bad besides the finale. So the final
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: season is good. Yeah, except for the finale.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: Tang, he's the beverage of choice for astronauts.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 5: That's why he's on Houston. Ah, I get it.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Houston Astros and they picked up Tang. There
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: there you go, Houston. You know, the site of the
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 3: Johnson Space Center, which is named after LBJ, is huge.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 5: Wang, it's not.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: It's not the Johnson you think, Oh, but he called
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: this his Johnson Jumbo though. All right, hang on, I'll
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: be right back. All right, next game up is the
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: best bet. It's you know, Red Sox braves again here.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: All right, we're gonna do what we did yesterday. We're
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: going under eight in this game as well. The price
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: is a little bit different at minus one ten. But whatever.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: These two teams have been trending way under. Atlanta doesn't
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: score as much at home the Red Sox. I mean,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: look at these games they've played recently.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 5: Their last six.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: Games have all seen five or fewer runs scored, and
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: all of them but two were fewer than that. We
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: got the undercorrecting yesterday's game. You can also go back
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: to two games prior to that, and the Red Sox
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 3: had another under game prior to that, but they're on
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: a big under trend right now. The Red Sox offense
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: has been terrible. I know Atlanta's is better, but I
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: think the pitching can kind of hold the offense down
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: enough in this game as well. Atlanta, Yeah, they won
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: late three to two yesterday. Like I said, it was
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: dramatic finish, whatever. But look at Atlanta, like you think
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: of them as, you know, this high scoring team because
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: their offense has been hitting well this year, although I
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: did kind of expect some regression offensively from them given
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: who they have in the lineup. But look at Atlanta
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: if you go all the way back to when they
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: were at Seattle. I know it's a pitcher friendly park there,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: so maybe we shouldn't look at it that far back,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: but they had three games go five or less. Then
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: they had two high scoring games where they scored a
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: lot against the Dodgers. Then all the games since then
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: have gone seven or fewer, and their last three games
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: have all been five or fewer. So in their last
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: how many games was that I had the number correct yesterday.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 5: I think it was six out of their last.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 3: Eight, So now I think it's seven of their last
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: nine games have gone under this total. The Braves and
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: all of the Red Sox last seven I think, have
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: so that's looking pretty good. But then obviously we have
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 3: to see what's going on with the pitching. And yeah,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: I know the Red Sox used four relief pitchers. They
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: used Chapman last night. They use some of their better pitchers,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: but they still have some pitchers available. And their bullpend
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: generally has been fairly good. Atlanta has had the best
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: bullpen in baseball, and they use a lot of relievers.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: I know they used five, but they're still pretty trustworthy
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: bullpen man. I think the starters in this game could
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: pitch decently enough. Obviously, that's going to be part of
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: the handicap here that they can bridge us to the
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: bullpens and the bullpens don't have to have that much activity. Today,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox are fifth in bullpen so that's been
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: the one good thing about the Red Sox is their
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: bullpen is actually pretty good. Their era is one of
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: the best, actually in Atlanta is the best bullpen era.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: They're number one in whip and era. Atlanta has been
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 3: the best offense as well. But I just showed you
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: what they've been doing recently, the Red Sox have been terrible.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: So even if Atlanta can put some runs up on
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: the border, I think we could still get this thing
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: under if the Red Sox continue to just never score.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: Although the Red Sox have actually scored more on the
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: road this year, believe it or not, which makes no
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: sense because Fenway is a hitter friendly ballpark and Atlanta
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: is not really. Red Sox are twenty seventh in offense.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: They're bad starting pitching here. Peyton totally my man is
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Red Sox. I'm a huge fan of
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: Tolley Man. I mean, he looks the part, he's got
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: good stuff, and he's been pitching well, and he gets
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: really really pumped on the mound. My one worry is
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: that in his last outing, he pitched on Mother's Day
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: and he had a really emotional outing because, if you
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: don't know, his mother died two years ago of cancer,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 3: so getting to pitch on Mother's Day was a huge
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: thing for him. He got super emotional during that game.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: They've been limiting his pitch count, which does worry me
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: a little bit, but their bullpen has been solid this
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: year as well.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 5: A couple of starts.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: He's gone deeper into some of these starts than others,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: so we'll see what the Red Sox want to do.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: But they're basically limiting him to around ninety pitches. But
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: he's been good overall. He's got a two point seven
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: to eighty ra point eighty eight whip. I don't really
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: see him being in a letdown spot because he was super.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 5: Emotional after well I don't know.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: He was super emotional after the Yankees start, and he
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 3: had his worst start of the season the next time
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: out against Toronto. I guess that is so wat of
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: a concern, but I don't know, man, I think he'll
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: be pumped to pitch against the Braves here. He's actually
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: been better on the road, even though that he had
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: that one really bad start on the road two point
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: three to one Rodio Ray, how is that even possible?
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: And his worst well, his worst start on the road.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: His worst start came on the road against Toronto, but
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: his best start was at Detroit. So I don't know,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 3: very very strange. And of course the Braves have never
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: seen him, so he has that going for him. He
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: has the unfamiliarity edge here against the Braves. Again, my
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: only concern is the possible letdown after pitching a Mother's Day,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: but he's been good overall, and he has the extra
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 3: advantage of not having been seen before. Bryce Elder is
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Braves, and yeah, I'm gonna back him here.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: Yesterday's game did go extra innings, by the way, I
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: thought it wound up going nine, but it did go
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: ten innings, which is why there was some extra bullpen
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: usage in that game. Bryce Elder seems to have regained
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: his form. Man Like, he had a couple of seasons
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: where he was a joke and it was like, dude,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: it's been crazy Elder. He was like awesome early in
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: his career. I think he got injured and then he
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: was just atrocious. But now he's good again. One point
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: eight one ERA, one point h one whip And while yeah,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: his numbers can't remain that good, I don't think he's
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: gonna all of a sudden be like really bad. His
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 3: home and road splits are not significant. Basically he's the
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: same both ways. I mean, he's sustained these numbers throughout
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: this entire season so far, so that is an indicator
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: that he's pretty good. Right now. He's allowed three or
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: fewer earned runs in every start this entire season. He's
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: allowed very few hits, well below one per inning, like
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: not even He's almost allowing only one hit every two winnings.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: Well not quite that, but still crazy doesn't Actually, his
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate has gone a little bit up as well.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: He's almost striking out one per inning, which is pretty
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: good in the issue with him remains the walks. He's
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 3: got a few too many walks, but it's not that bad,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: although in his last three starts he walked three or
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: more each of them, which is a concern, but he
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: did hold all of those offenses downstill, and the most
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: walks he had was against the Dodgers last start, and
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: he's still one hit them on the road and shut
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: them out for five to two thirds innings.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: That's still a pretty good.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: Sign to me. He's got well over one strike up
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: per inning this month seventeen and eleven and two thirds innings.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 5: Seven walks is a concern.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: Though, obviously, but he's also only allowed three hits, so
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: he's been basically unhittable over that span, and the Red
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: Sox do not have good numbers against them at all.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: In thirty two at bats, seven strikeouts, two walks, one
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: eighty eight average allowed four fifty four ops. So he's
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: been good against the Red Sox in a decent sample.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: It's not that small. Under is the call that I'm
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: making in this one first five under I would agree
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: with as well. The money seems to not agree with
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: me on this. Ninety four percent of tickets eighty seven
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the under full game is
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: pretty much eight across the BA. There are some seven
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: and a half juiced to the over out there. You know,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: seven is a more key number than eight, But I
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 3: would say, yeah, like fine, you know, probably you can
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: find an eight like minus one fifteen, maybe even still
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: the minus one.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 5: Ten out there.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: So the percentages don't tell the whole story to me,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: because to me it looks like it looks like the
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: money is actually moving the line down a little bit
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: towards the under. But I don't know. So that is
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: my other play. And then I do have a hockey
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: play coming up in a little bit. Yes, Braves, Yeah
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: I'm not really a fan of them, but yeah they.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 5: Use the top hawk chop.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: They're Cole's favorite team though, all right, New York, New York.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: The Subway series which is gonna be one of the
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: two games on Fox. Hey man, do you think more
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: people are gonna watch Yankees Mets or Padres Mariners? Dude,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 3: even though the Mets suck. I mean, obviously everyone's gonna
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: be watching this game instead of the other game. And
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: since they're on Fox, I think that probably means it's
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 3: going to be dependent on your local market. But I'm
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 3: assuming that up here in New England it's going to
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: be the New York game because that's what we want,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: right We want to watch the Yankees beat the Mets again.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: That's really what we want. Maybe they won't, but I'm
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: pretty skeptical. Yankees won yesterday against the Mets. As we know,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: we got the under seven and a half correct, and
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 3: Clay Holmes got nailed in the leg and broke Oh
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 3: it was his fibul. I got that wrong, unless maybe
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: the article actually might have gotten it wrong. I don't know.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: He broke one of his leg bones, let's put it
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 3: that way, and he still basically finished his start. Clay
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: Homes is a badass man. That's like, that's some NHL
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: shit man. Like usually, all the leagues besides hockey, besides
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: the NHL, all these other leagues are usually pussified, but
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: apparently not Clay Homes because again, that's something you usually
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: only see in hockey, like a guy will break his
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: bone and then.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 5: Just keep playing.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: Well, that's what he did, but I'm assuming that probably
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: means it was not a serious fracture. But he's gonna
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: be out for a while. So that's not good for
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 3: the Mets because he's been one of their better pitchers.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: But whatever, we got the underwrite, even though we had
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 3: to dodge that Homes injury, and the stupid Mets put
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: up one run of the ninth inning there to put
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 3: it on seven instead of six. So if you guys
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: had seven, you pushed instead of one. I gave it
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: out at seven and a half. But you know the
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: key number. Sometimes it does matter anyway this game. What's
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: gonna happen in this game? I don't I don't know.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: The Yankees used two relief pitchers yesterday, the Mets used three.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: Both bullpens have been decent the Mets. Both teams have
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 3: the same whip, but the Yankees have the better era.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: So even though the Mets are ranked ninth when I
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: order it this way, and the Yankees are tenth. This
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: ordering is fucked up, dude, because you should be able
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 3: to specify. I want to secondary, you know, sort order
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: by era here because the Yankees are should be ranked ninth,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 3: the Mets tenth in bullpenny ra or in bullpen. I mean,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 3: but both bullpens have been pretty good. Yankees are the
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: way better offense, though obviously the Yankees are ranked third
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 3: right now, the Mets are dead last thirtieth. Still, Carlos
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 3: Rodon is getting the start for the Yankees, though he
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: made one start so far coming back from injury, and
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: as you can see, it did not go well. Six
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 3: point two to three ERA, one point six to two whip.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 5: That's not good.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: It was a road start, it was at Milwaukee, and
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: he pitched poorly.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 5: Uh, I think he was on Milwaukee. Actually wasn't he?
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: No, for I don't know. For some reason I thought
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: he was on Milwaukee at one point. I guess I'm wrong.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know who I'm thinking of. Anyway, he didn't
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: pitch well. He went four and a third in hes,
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 3: walked five guys, only gave up two hits though had
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 3: four strikeouts, give it three in runs. The walks were
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: really the huge issue. With him there, but that's correctable.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 3: He might be able to correct that, you know, if
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 3: you look throughout his career though. I think walks have
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 3: kind of been an issue for him though throughout his career,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 3: so that's not really something new. Numbers against the Mets
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 3: are pretty good for him though, in sixty five at
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: bats two fifteen batting average allowed, six eighty two ops, fourteen, strikeout,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 3: six walks. Again, it's a lot of walks, but four
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 3: of the six are one so though, and a lot
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 3: of the at bats are coming from Bishett and Semion,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: and Semion has not even hit him that well.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 5: So yeah, Radon might have a decent matchup here.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 3: I actually kind of think he's gonna do better in
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: this outing than he did in his first outing. A
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: lot of times when a guy comes back from injury
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: or whatever, a lot of times he is a little
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 3: bit shaky in that first outing. He's gonna be going
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: up against a Mets bullpen game, Huascar Braza Bon. Braza
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: Bon is listed as the opener here. He's not really
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: a starter. He's been pitching well this year though, two
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 3: point one four ERA point nine to five WIT, but
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 3: he's pitching in short stints obviously one point five home hera.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: He's been good, but again, he's given you like one
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: two winnings basically every time he goes out there. And
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: his last outing was a few days ago and he
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: went two and a third, so I think he's only
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 3: gonna go one inning here.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 5: And the last time he did.
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 3: That he allowed two runs, which was back on the
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: tenth at Arizona, and then I'm pretty sure David Peterson
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: came in behind him.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 5: I think that's what the Mets have been doing.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: So I think it is going to be David Peterson
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: coming into this game after Braza bon or Braza bon,
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't know how you pronounced it. David
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: Peterson has been bad. I think you're gonna get him
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 3: for many innings in this game. Five point four to
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 3: nine ERA, one point five whip. I mean, you know
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: if you watch my show that I've never been a
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 3: fan of him. He hasn't been good at home either.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: Six point seventy five home ERA. He last pitched on
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: the tenth, So I do believe it is going to
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: be him coming in after an opener from Braza bon.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: I believe Peterson's gonna come in and give you four
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: or five innings here. But the last two times he
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 3: did that, he was actually good at Colorado and at Arizona,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 3: and those are hitter friendly ballparks. He had nine strikeouts,
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 3: no walks, he didn't want anybody, which is a new
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 3: thing for him, and only allowed seven hits at nine innings,
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: So he actually pitched well in this role. Like what
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 3: is he?
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 5: Brian Beao a pitcher who I'm just like, this.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 3: Guy fucking sucks whatever, and then all of a sudden
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: he pitches better behind an open although Bao has been
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: better in that role than Peterson has been, Peterson looks
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 3: like he's actually serviceable in this role, so he might
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: actually be okay here. And his numbers against the Yankees,
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: believe it or not, are actually somewhat good in fifty
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: one at bats, one ninety six average, allowed six nineteen
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: obs eleven to eight strikeout walk ratio. So if it
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 3: is going to be Peterson, and I believe it is,
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 3: you know, he might actually do okay here. So, I
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: mean it sounds insane, but I think an under still
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: kind of makes sense in this game. Nobody's gonna want that.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, what are we doing here Radon who looked
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 3: awful against a bullpen game, but I think it's gonna
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 3: be Redone pitching better this time. He has good matchup
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: numbers against mostly David Peterson, who has decent matchup numbers,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: and then the bullpens are both decent as well. I
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: like the under here, but the money's completely disagreeing. Fifty
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: nine percent of tickets on the under, seventy four percent
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the over. Obviously, this is not
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: gonna be a play for me here, but eight and
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 3: a half is the full game total.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 5: It's not really that high.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: And of course we know the Mets have not been
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: able to score, so they may continue to fail to score. Here,
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 3: the Yankees are the favorite.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 5: But the money is fading them.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 3: Eighty two percent of tickets, sixty three percent of the
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: cash on the Yankees at about minus one twenty something
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: here on the money line, the money is looking like
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 3: it's indicating towards the Mets here. You know, I mean,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: I could see some argument for it, Like, I don't know,
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 3: but the Mets did just lose a three game win
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: streak or whatever, so maybe they'll be a little bit hungover.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: But you know, They're not gonna overlook the Yankees though,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: but I don't know. It seems like the money is
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: backing this bullpen game with David Peters.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 5: Then they're over radon doing that.
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 3: Information what you want, but I think my opinion in
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 3: that game would be under.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 5: Still don't want to do that at all.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 3: Basketball, Yeah, it's all flopping and foul calls that are
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 3: just rigged pretty much. Being a Mets fan. Being a
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: Red Sox fan is worse. The Red Sox actually looked
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 3: like they could do well. I thought the Mets would
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: be pretty good this year too. It's just insane how
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: bad really both the Red Sox and the Mets have
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 3: been this year with the amount of money that those
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 3: teams have and the talent that I think the Rosters have.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: San Diego at Seattle we won on the under in
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: this game yesterday, really easily. San Diego won two to nothing.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 3: We did get the good start out of Vazquez. I
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 3: know some professionals are questioning Vazquez. They don't like his
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 3: underlying metrics. Whatever. He pitched well, you know, Handcock pitch
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: well in the game as well, But it was just
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 3: the scoring went to San Diego and they won the game.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: This game, I'm not, you know, as opinionated towards the
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: under in this one. I still like both bullpens. But
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: San Diego did use Mason Miller yesterday. They used some
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 3: of their better relievers yesterday, and Matt Waldron is on
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: the DL now man. Oh No, that means San Diego
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: doesn't have their knuckleballer anymore. But San Diego their bullpen
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: is still really good. But keep in mind they did
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 3: use their better relief pitchers yesterday to hold off Seattle
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: and get the save. Seattle has a good bullpen as well.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: They used three relief pitchers yesterday. They're better relievers are
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: somewhat available today. San Diego's ranked sixth in bullpen right now.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 3: They are definitely one of the better bullpens. Seattle's ranked fifteenth,
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: but they have one of the best bullpen eras they're
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 3: a good bullpen as well. That was part of the
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: handicap yesterday. San Diego's really struggled offensively. They're at twenty eighth.
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: Seattle started to hit a little bit better and they're
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 3: up to fifteenth. I do think Seattle is the better
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 3: offense here. We're looking at a pitcher friendly park because
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 3: both these teams playing pitcher friendly parks. Walker Mueller is
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 3: pitcher for Sandy. You know, I don't think he's good.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, obviously his numbers suggests that he has not
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 3: been good since he had Tommy John surgery. What else
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 3: is new? He's never really been able to bounce back
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: from it. This year.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 5: He's got a five point two ERA, one point three
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 5: to five whip. Not really good.
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty bad on the road ten point one
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: to three roady RA, although he might do better in
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: this stadium because it is against Seattle. He pitched against
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 3: Seattle in the middle of April in San Diego and
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 3: held him to two runs in five innings, so that
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: was pretty good. It was one of his better starts
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: of the season. Seven strikeouts, one walk, so he may
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: actually pitch okay, here, you look.
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 5: At his overall numbers, they're actually not that bad.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 3: You know. His strike out rate is a bit below
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: one per inning, but it's not horrible. He's allowed one, like,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: almost one hit more per inning than the amount of
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 3: inning he's yeah, allowed a little bit over one hit
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: per inning, let's put it that way, which is you know, tolerable.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: And then his walk number is not really that bad either,
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 3: like one walk per three innings or whatever that is.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: So his overall numbers actually suggested he's not really that
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 3: bad right now. And or you know, when you dig
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 3: into his numbers that you know are not actually his
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: era and whip here, his era is probably higher than
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 3: maybe it really should be. And San Diego ridiculously has
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 3: won five of his last seven starts. Even though I
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 3: still don't really trust Bueller, but he does have decent
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: numbers against Seattle in forty nine at bests two twenty
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: four average a lot six sixty ops, fourteen to eight
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: strike a walk ratio. It's too many walks, but he's
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: got a good match up here. It looks like and
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 3: a picture friendly park, and his overall numbers suggests that
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 3: maybe he's not quite that bad. He'll be going up
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: against Logan Gilbert, who's been pretty decent for Seattle three
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: point seven to eighty RA one point one six whip,
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: although shockingly he's been worse at home four point nine
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 3: to one homey r. And typically, like all Seattle pitchers,
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: he's better at home. It's a hit or friendly park,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: but somehow he's over three runs higher at home, and
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 3: he's allowed seven of the eight home runs he's allowed
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 3: at home this season, although it is also in more
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 3: innings pitch, but still allowing that many home runs at
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: home is very mystifying. I don't know what's going on here.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 3: He pitched really well in his last start, which was
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: on the road, one hit shutout for six innings against
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 3: the White Sox with nine strike outs and no walks.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 3: But that tells you he's in pretty good form for
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: the most part. I mean, he's allowed more than three
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: on runs only twice this season. One of them was
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: this month though, against the Braves, but he allowed four
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 3: solo home runs in that game and somehow still only
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: allowed four runs. That's why he has seven home runs
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 3: allowed or whatever in this stadium this year. But you know,
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 3: that start seems a little bit fluky to me, and
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: the Braves have been one of the best offenses this year.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 3: I think Gilbert is good overall. He has a really
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 3: good strike up walk race. He has more than one
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: strike up per inning, fewer than one hit allowed for
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: inning in a low one awkrat, so his numbers are good.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: Against San Diego, he does have good numbers as well,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 3: and sixty nine at bats nineteen to two, strike out
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: walk ratio two zero three batting average, a lot of
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: five eighty eight ohps. These are pretty dominant numbers here,
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 3: So you know, I mean, I kind of like Seattle
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 3: to bounce back here. I would not disagree with the
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 3: Seattle side, but they're like, you know, I mean, they
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 3: have their better relievers available today. I think they have
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 3: the starting pitching edge somewhat here. They're around minus one
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 3: sixty something here. People gotta stop revving their engines outside. Man,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 3: you know, I'm beyond tired of it.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 5: But yes, what was I what was even saying?
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Yeah, I would slightly lean towards Seattle
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 3: on the side here, but I think I prefer the
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 3: under in this game.
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I think I lean to Seattle slightly.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: But you would have to go split bet run line
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 3: money lane there because they're around the minus one sixty price,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: which is a bit high, and the money seems to
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 3: not agree. Ninety percent of tickets eighty nine percent of
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 3: the cash on them, so they're the public side with
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 3: less of the money on them. Under looks like it's
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: not getting the money either, though. Fifty three percent of
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 3: tickets and eighty six percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 3: But this is a seven total here, so the odds
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 3: makers it's just to the over. The odds makers are
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 3: telling you this is gonna be a low scoring game
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 3: here at that number. So when they're telling you that,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: you know, usually I'm looking towards Under in a game
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 3: like that. I think the starting pitching might be good enough.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: Plus the bullpens are both good, So yeah, I like
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: Under the best in that game, and a slight lean
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 3: to Seattle to bounce back after getting shut out at
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 3: home yesterday, because I think Gilbert is still better than Bueller,
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 3: and Seattle didn't use their better relievers yesterday like San
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 3: Diego did. All right, we have the Battle of La
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: Dodgers at Anaheim. Dodgers won six to nothing yesterday, so again,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: maybe there's a bounce back potential for Anaheim here after
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 3: getting shut out at home yesterday. Dodgers are obviously the
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: better team though, But the Dodgers used all of their
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 3: bullpen yesterday, which is insane.
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 5: They went with a bullpen game.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 3: Actually, I don't know what happened because it was supposed
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 3: to be Snell, but Snell got scratched like a like
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 3: a a horse in one of these horse races.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 5: He got scratched.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: Maybe yeah, I don't know what happened there, but the
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 3: Dodgers went with a bullpen game. Snell did not pitch.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 3: So the Dodgers' bullpen is pretty run out right now.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: They use all but Tanner Scott yesterday. That's not a
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 3: good sign for the Dodgers here. So Anaheim, even though
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: their bullpen is really bad, they're way more rested. They
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: only us three relief pitchers yesterday. Dodgers still have the
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: better bullpen in general number four. Anaheim is twenty seventh,
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: but I think that usage yesterday almost pretty much negates
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers' bullpen edge in my opinion.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 5: Here, Dodgers have the better offense.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: They're tied at number one with the Braves, which is
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 3: not surprising.
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 5: Anaheim has been mediocre.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 3: They're at eighteenth offensively this matchup, I mean, the situation
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 3: looks like it favors Anaheim here. The bullpen is more
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 3: rested for Anaheim here, and I think this is a
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 3: starting pitching matchup where Anaheim could win. Justin Robleski's pitcher
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 3: for the Dodgers, and I know he's been good this season.
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 5: I just don't think that this is going to continue.
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 3: Man, he's got a two point four two ERA point
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 3: nine to nine whip, but he's just not a pitcher
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 3: that is a dominant pitcher.
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 5: He doesn't have great stuff. He's been better on.
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 3: The road though a one ERA, so I'm not really
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 3: that tempted to fade him, but it does look like
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 3: he's trending in the wrong direction. He just gave up
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 3: seven runs and an outing against the Braves, but he
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 3: almost pitched the complete game and it was on seven hits,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 3: so he got unlucky again. The Braves were hitting home runs,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 3: so I think the Braves are kind of getting some
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 3: fluke runs with all the home runs they're hitting. He
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 3: had seven strikeouts one walk in that game, still after
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 3: no strikeouts in a six inning shutout against Saint Louis,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: and he had a show out against the Cubs the
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 3: game before then, and a shutout against.
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 5: The Mets two starts prior to that.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, there are some arguments to be
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 3: made that that was a flukey outing against Atlanta where
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 3: he actually pitched better than the number of runs that
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 3: he allowed to suggest, and I agree with that.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 5: You don't usually allow.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 3: Seven runs on seven hits in one walk, so I
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 3: think he will pitch better than that in this game.
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 3: But overall, I mean, he's just not a good strikeout pitcher.
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 3: He has fewer than one strikeout every two winnings, but
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 3: he's allowed fewer than one hit per inning by a lot,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 3: and he has not put a lot of guys on
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 3: base via the walk either. So yeah, generally, yes, he's
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 3: pitched really well this season, but he just doesn't have
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 3: like the stuff you know to maintain numbers like this.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Anaheim are pretty good, though in seven
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 3: at bats it's a very small sample. Only Teodosio Tayodocio.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 3: That's the only hit he's allowed to them, a double.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 3: He's got no strikeouts, one walk against them, one forty
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 3: three average, five thirty.
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 5: Six ops allowed.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 3: So I don't really want to fade Robleski here, but
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 3: they're definitely arguing to me made that Soriano is the
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 3: better pitcher here out of the two. Jose Soriano's pitching
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 3: for the Angels. He's been good against every team who's
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 3: not the White Sox this season. He's got a one
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: point six six ERA one point zero five whip. He's
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: usually not as good at home, and that's still the
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 3: case this year. But two point three eighty ra at
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 3: home is not exactly bad. But last year he was
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 3: significantly worse at home, so we do have to worry
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 3: about that a little bit. That he is usually better
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 3: on the road this season, like I said, all of
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 3: his starts against teams who are not the White Sox,
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 3: he allowed one or fewer earned run in all of them,
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 3: including last time out we won. I gave you guys
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 3: a winner on Anaheim against Toronto. In his most recent start.
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 3: He pitched really well in that game against Toronto, so
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: he seems to be right back in form.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 5: After that.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 3: He gave up one run in seven to two thirds innings,
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 3: seven strikeouts, one walk.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 5: It was on the road, you know.
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 3: But I think he's obviously capable of pitching well here.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 3: He hasn't fased the Dodgers yet, but he has faced Atlanta,
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 3: the Cubs, Houston. He allowed one run combined across those
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 3: three starts against three other offenses that I think are
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 3: kind of comparable to the Dodgers. The Dodgers is still
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 3: debatably better than them, but he also has good numbers
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 3: in his career against the Dodgers in twenty eight at bats,
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 3: nine strikeouts, three walks, no extra base hits allowed, one
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 3: seventy nine average allowed, four point thirty seven ops allowed. Soriano,
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 3: I think might pitch well here. Man, I am gonna
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 3: lean Anaheim here. You got Soriano, who I think is
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: better than Robleski. I think Robleski because his stuff isn't
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: as good as Soriano's. And you could tell that by
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 3: the way I should have gone into this. Soriano has
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 3: a really high strikeout rate, well over one per inning,
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 3: and he's allowed well below one hit per inning. His
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 3: walks are just a little bit of a concern. He's
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 3: walked too many guys. But Soriano has the way better
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: like stuff at the major level, you know what I mean.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 3: And I think you can pitch well here. So I
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 3: do lean to Anaheim slightly. The money seems to agree.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 3: Seventy three percent of tickets seventy percent of the cash
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 3: on the Dodgers. I'd probably actually go full game, believe
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 3: it or not, for Anaheim to bounce back their bullpen.
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 3: I know it sucks, but it's way more rested than
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers' bullpen, so I think that kind of negates
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers' bullpen edge. Like I said, the Dodgers are
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 3: minus one forty here. I don't really know that Robleski
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 3: should be given that much credit against a pitcher who's, like,
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 3: you know, almost certainly better than he is. I would
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 3: not disagree with the first five under in this game either.
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 3: I think both starting pitchers could continue to pitch well here.
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 3: The money doesn't agree with that, though on the full
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 3: game it doesn't eighty nine percent of tickets only seventy
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 5: But remember that if the money is coming in.
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 3: On a full game over, which would be over eight
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 3: and a half, it's hanging into account the Dodgers having
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 3: no bullpen rests and Anaheim having a terrible bullpen. So
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 3: that's why I'm saying that if you play under here
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 3: it would be I would leave first five under. And yeah,
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 3: you don't want the bullpens to be factored into that,
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 3: But I think the better way to play it is
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 3: actually still to play Anaheim on the money line. In
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: that game, the public's not gonna want to do it, man.
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 3: The public is obviously gonna play the Dodgers there, So
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 3: all right, San Francisco at the A's in the Battle
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 3: of the Bay. Although the A's are no longer the
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 3: Bay team. Man, they're in Sacramento now and then they're
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 3: gonna move to Vegas, so what the fuck are we
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 3: doing here? And they're the homeless a is still right now.
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 3: The A's won the game yesterday five to two, despite
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 3: being in a return home spot. I think, oh no,
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 3: they weren't my mistake. They were already at home. That's right.
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 3: They played against Saint Louis.
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 5: That's right.
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 3: I forgot about that, all right, But anyway, yeah, I
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 3: mean these two teams are kind of like opposites in
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 3: a way. San Francisco is a better pitching team. The
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 3: A's are a better hitting team, and it's fairly significant
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 3: in bolt directions. Cisco used three relief pitchers yesterday. The
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 3: A's whoops, the A's used four. A's do not have
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 3: a good bullpen. The A's are twenty third. San Francisco
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 3: is only ranked nineteenth here, but they do have a
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 3: pretty good ra I still think their bullpen is pretty solid.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 3: I think clearly it's the better of the two. A's
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 3: are clearly the better offense at sixth right now, and
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 3: the Giants are twenty ninth man Giants. Yeah, continue to
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 3: struggle offensively. Maybe they'll hit a little bit better on
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 3: the road here at the A's though, because it's a
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 3: pitcher friendly stadium. Trevor McDonald his picture for San Francisco
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 3: pretty interesting. He's been pretty good. He's still young, twenty
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 3: five years old. He's got a two point nine two
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 3: ERA this year, one point oh five whip. That's pretty good,
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 3: although it's a small sample size. One concern is he's
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 3: been bad on the road though, five point six road ERA.
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 3: It's a very very small sample size. But it was
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 3: one start against the Dodgers, So what can you really
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 3: take away from that. I don't know. I don't think
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 3: he's quite as good as a very good home start
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 3: against San Diego and a pitcher friendly park against a
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 3: bad lineup. I don't think he's as bad as maybe
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 3: he looked against the Dodgers, even though he wasn't even
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 3: really that bad in that game on the road against
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 3: an elite offense. He gave up nine hits though, so
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: he did get hit a round in that game, but
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 3: held him to three or in runs for strikeouts, two
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 3: walks in five to thirty innings. Overall, he has twelve
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 3: strikeouts and two walks this season, so that's pretty good.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 3: And he's extremely in balance towards the ground ball, and
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 3: that is good for pitching in the A's stadium because
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 3: you know, if you're a fly ball happy pitcher, that's
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 3: not good because this is a home run conduces stadium.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 3: So I think it is good for McDonald coming into
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 3: this game. But he induces a ton of ground balls. Now,
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 3: he did pitch over the last couple of seasons, did
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 3: have a pretty good ground ball rate. Last year twenty
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 3: twenty four, he pitched a little bit as well. He
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 3: only had one outing in twenty twenty four, but was
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 3: extremely ground ball heavy in that game as well. Last
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 3: year he was pretty good. He made two starts, three appearances,
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 3: three point six ERA, one point oh seven whips. So
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 3: I don't think what he's doing this season is really
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 3: a fluke, like we're seeing, you know, the sample size
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 3: getting larger, and he's continuing to pitch well and he's
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 3: got a good style of pitching for this stadium, so
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 3: I think he is going to pitch well here. And
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 3: the A's have never seen him before, so I think
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 3: that's an advantage to McDonald. The unfamiliarity edge there not
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 3: gonna make it a play, But I was when I
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 3: started handicapping this, I thought I was gonna give out
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 3: a plan in San Francisco here. I do like them here,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 3: and you know Luis Severino, I like to fade him
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 3: when he's pitching at home here. He does not have
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 3: good numbers this season four point seven ERA, one point
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 3: five to two whip for the A's. He's again been
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: worse at home four point nine to one home e RA.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 3: He's allowed four of his five home runs he's allowed
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 3: at home, and way fewer innings pitched.
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 5: So again, it makes sense because this.
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 3: Stadium is really bad for pitching, and he was an
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 3: extremely imbalanced home road pitcher last year, where of course
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 3: he was way worse at home than on the road
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 3: last year, and it looks like we might be getting
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: more of that this year. So you definitely wanted to
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 3: fade him at home in this bad stadium, and I
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 3: think that's going to continue to be the case. This month,
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 3: he hasn't been particularly good. In two road starts, he
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 3: only allowed three on runs and ten to third innings,
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 3: which is good, but he walked six guys and had
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 3: seven strikeouts over that man. That was against Philly and Baltimore,
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 3: so that's not a good sign. That he's putting a
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 3: lot of guys on base va of the walk, and
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 3: that wasn't even in this home stadium. Overall, he's got
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 3: a decent strikeout rate, almost one per inning, and he's
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 3: allowed fewer than one hit per inning, but his walk
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 3: rate is really high. He's allowing yeah, I mean getting
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 3: close to almost one per inning. I mean it's not
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 3: that bad, but it's still getting up there. He's walking
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 3: way too many guys, dude. Against San Francisco. This is
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 3: where I stop, and I can't actually give you San
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 3: Francisco here, because he has good numbers against San Francisco.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 3: They're just a pitiful offense. He has eighty eight at
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 3: bats against them, although a lot of them are Devers
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 3: and Chapman, but they haven't hit him at all. Only
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 3: a Damis and Well and Araiz. I guess they've both
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 3: hit him pretty well. But overall, he's got a nineteen
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 3: to nine strike out walk ratio against him. I know
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 3: that's too many walks again, but two twenty seven batting
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 3: average allowed six thirty six ops, so he does have
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 3: overall good numbers against San Francisco. I'm still gonna lean
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 3: San Francisco here, though the money is heavily agreeing with me.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 3: A is sixty four percent of tickets on them, seventy
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on San Francisco. Severalino. Still,
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 3: you want to fade him when he's at home. He's
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 3: got bad home road splits. McDonald looks like he's a
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 3: good style of pitching for the stadium. He's a young,
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 3: unfamiliar pitcher here to the A's he's pitched well so
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 3: far in his career.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 5: I like all that.
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 3: You're getting San Francisco as an underdog. They have the
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 3: better bullpend as well. You need them to score some runs.
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 3: But you know, I like pitching over hittings.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: So.
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I like San Francisco. You're getting a dog here.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 3: A is around minus one thirty something or so here,
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 3: So yeah, moneyline giants would be my opinion in that game.
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 3: That's the way I would play it. I'm not gonna lie.
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 3: It's tempting and if Severarino had worst matchup numbers, it
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 3: would probably be on my card. So that's one of
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 3: the ones I like better this today. That's one of
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 3: the ones that's not on my card that I like better.
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 3: In fact, I think that's probably my next best opinion
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 3: out of all these games. Like I don't like the
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 3: board today, as you can probably tell, but I think
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 3: that's probably my next strongest opinion would actually be San Francisco.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 5: So take you know from that what you want?
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 3: I guess, yeah, all right, Yeah, it's I don't know
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 3: what to even call it because I live in an
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 3: area with a lot of Indian people, so it's pooh fast,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 3: pooh furious. I'm gonna I don't want to get this
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 3: channel nuked though, Hindian. What's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 3: Yes sir, Yes, like and subscribe here. Let's go all right,
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 3: let's go too. The only the only game we have
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 3: left is a hockey game, and I have a play
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 3: on it. There's no NBA, no NHL. San Antonio did
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 3: advance unfortunately for us. We will get a game seven
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 3: tomorrow in the Eastern Conference game between Detroit and Cleveland,
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 3: and I may actually give out a play on that game.
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 3: We'll see, but I will have a play on this
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 3: one hockey game. Here Buffalo in Montreal. Game six, Montreal
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 3: is trying to win the series here at home, up
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 3: three to two. This is on ABC tonight. I think
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 3: all my games are night games today. By the way,
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 3: this game we're gonna do it. We're gonna zigzag in
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 3: and play Buffalo this time to stave off elimination as
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 3: an underdog. Price that I think it's pretty decent. I'm
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 3: recommending a split bet on the money line and run line.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 3: This is that the book with the Lion had really
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 3: good odds on this at plus one forty five on
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 3: the money line. If you wanted to just go money
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 3: line to put less more at risk on it, you
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 3: could do that too.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna split the bet though.
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 3: So if they lose by one, which you've seen a
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 3: lot of one goal games in the series, so that
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 3: could definitely happen. If they lose by one, it'll push
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 3: in my case. I found the plus one and a
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 3: half at minus one sixty five at the m book
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 3: with the Lie, and you know what I mean. So
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 3: this comes out to a minus one oh eight plus
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 3: one puck line here. So that's the math. So I
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 3: like that, that's right, and that's right in the range.
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 3: You know that you want.
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 5: If you did it out.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 3: Of one hundred or to win one hundred, you'd put
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 3: about sixty seven percent of it on the puck line,
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 3: part of it on the minus one sixty five, and
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 3: whatever that nets, which is about forty forty one, you
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 3: put the rest of that on the money line. And
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 3: the way that that works is, of course, if they
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 3: at least lose by one, if they lose by exactly one,
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 3: your bet will push you know what I mean, because
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 3: you'll win that puck line part of it, and that
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 3: will cover the amount that you lost on the money line.
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 5: But of course, if they went out right, you're gonna
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 5: win the whole thing. Now, why do we like this here?
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 3: Let's look at it. Well, the market Red will talk
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 3: about in a minute. That is supporting me. But why
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 3: do we like this? Mondrel has looked like the better
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 3: team during this series. I don't disagree with that. They've
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 3: had two four goal wins here, but and they've had
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 3: a three goal win as well. But there are some
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 3: things that I like about Buffalo here. Actually I'm wrong
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 3: about the one goal games. There's only been one my mistake,
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 3: and it was a Buffalo win. Buffalo did also win
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 3: by two in one game, so my mistake. But first
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 3: of all, let's look at the game that we had.
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 3: Last game, Montrell won six to three in Buffalo, and
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 3: a lot of times I talk about this when a
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 3: team loses at home and then they go on the
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 3: road and play that same team again, if there was
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 3: something misleading about that result, a lot of times you
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 3: see that team do better in that next game. And
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 3: Buffalo blew this game, dude. Buffalo was winning the game early.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 3: They were winning the game three to two in the
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 3: first period. They didn't trail in the first period, they
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 3: were alternating leading and tied game. Then they just didn't
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 3: score again after that, and Montreal did also have two
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 3: pour play goals in the game. So even strength, Montreal
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 3: only won this game four to three. But if you
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 3: look at the box scorer here, Buffalo had more shots
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 3: and they had more scoring opportunities by ten on the
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 3: shots on goal, so that kind of indicates that Buffalo
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 3: was playing better and had more offensive possession here. They
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 3: had more hits as well, even though they haven't been
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 3: the more physical team most of the time throughout the series,
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 3: but they did outplay Montreal in this game. It looks
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 3: like Montreal did win the face off battle, but it
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 3: was close at fifty five point nine percent. But this
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 3: indicates to me that this was a misleading final result.
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 3: So we're gonna go with Buffalo to keep this closer.
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 3: And the thing that put me over the top is
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 3: Montreal has not been that good at home during the playoffs.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 3: I know, they beat Tampa Bay in seven games, they're
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 3: winning this series right now, but you want to guess
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 3: what you'd think that they'd have a good home record
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs, thinking, oh my god, they beat Tampa
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 3: Bay in seven games. They had to have done well
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 3: at home, right they're winning this series, you know against Buffalo,
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 3: they had to have done well at home, right, Well, actually, no,
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 3: they've been better on the road in the playoffs. On
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 3: the road, they won three road games in the first
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 3: series against Tampa Bay. They went three and one in
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 3: the first series on the road against Tampa Bay. And
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 3: in this series, I believe they're two in one on
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 3: the road. In this series they won one game on
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 3: the road. And yeah, they won two games on the
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 3: road and lost one of them, which was the game
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 3: two of this series. So Montres five and two was
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 3: a road team in the playoffs this year, and at
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 3: home they're two and three. They lost. Yeah, they lost
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 3: both of the games that they lost in the in
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 3: the Tampa or no excuse, they lost one road game
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 3: in two home games against Tampa Bay. Sorry, my mind's
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 3: all over the place. They went one and two on
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 3: their home ice against Tampa Bay, and the only home
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 3: game that they won in that series was by one goal.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 3: I think that's what I was thinking of. So they
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 3: did not cover this puck line in any of their
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 3: home games in the Tampa Bay series. Although, yes, Tampa
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 3: Bay is a better team than Buffalo and this series, yes,
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 3: they did cover that number once with a six to
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 3: two home win, and I did talk about that. I
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 3: didn't think that. Actually, I think I did think this
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 3: was a little bit of a misleading result, didn't I. No,
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 3: I guess I did it. Montreal did kind of dominate
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 3: that game. I don't know what I was thinking, but
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 3: Buffalo still bounced back in the next game and won anyway.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 3: But I didn't like it well enough to make it
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 3: a play Montreal, I believe. Did I give out a
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 3: play on Montreal in the most recent game, I don't
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 3: know if I did. I think I might have because
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 3: it was a bounce back spot for them, I think,
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 3: and they outplayed Buffalo in the prior game I wound
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 3: up winning, but they were not really the better team
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 3: in this game. I'm rambling though. We're going back to
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 3: what is their home record in the playoffs? Okay, yeah,
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 3: in this series, they're one and one at home, So overall,
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 3: they're two and three at home in the playoffs and
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 3: they've only covered. They've only won by more than one
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 3: goal once at home in the playoffs this season, So
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 3: we're fading that, like Montreal has not been that great
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 3: at home during the playoffs.
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 5: If we look at the last home game they had,
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 5: what were they favored by?
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 3: They were minus one forty eight in their last home
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 3: game and it went up for minus one twenty five.
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 3: So the money did back Montreal there. But now we're
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 3: looking at Montreal being a way heavier favorite. Dude, it
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 3: minus one sixty something like that's insane, Like Montreal is
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 3: the heaviest favorite they've been all season here, like all
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 3: a postseason here, And I.
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 5: Think that's just because, you know, is it because it's.
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 3: An elimination game and they like they have to They
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 3: don't even have to win, like they could go win
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 3: on the road in Buffalo. So you know, I think
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 3: the the thought I guess is that Montreal's got to
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 3: win here because they don't want to have to go
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 3: back to Buffalo. But I'm not sure that that's even
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 3: that true, because I showed you Montreal has been really
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 3: good as a road team in the player this year,
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 3: so I think you're gonna get a bigger effort out
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 3: of Buffalo. Of course, Buffalo is a big underdog here,
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 3: probably too big facing elimination. And the money's agreeing with me.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 3: Seventy six percent of tickets on Montreal, sixty eight percent
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Buffalo. Yeah, money agrees with me.
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 3: I say, let's do it. The money's coming in on
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 3: the over, which I don't love that. The totals between
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 3: six and six and a half, so it's looking like
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 3: betters are expecting and odds makers are expecting to be
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 3: a high scoring game. I don't love that necessarily, for
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 3: you know, playing an underdog, you kind of want this
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 3: to be like a three to two type of game.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 3: But whatever, we're doing it anyway. I just showed you
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 3: why Montreal has been worse at home than on the
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 3: road in the postseason. I think it's a zigzag spot
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 3: for Buffalo here. You're getting him as too big of
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 3: an underdog price. In my opinion, this line has been heavily,
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 3: heavily juiced towards the favorite here, and I think not
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 3: really legitimately. So even though I think Montreal is the
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 3: better team, I don't think it's by that much. So
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 3: we're gonna take in that one split beat puck line
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 3: money line, and that's gonna do it. Yeah, I would
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 3: like to see Canada not win, but I don't like
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 3: Buffalo as a team. I mean, come on, man, they
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 3: got Benson or whatever, one of the cheapest players in hockey.
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 3: Can't stand him?
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 5: Yeah, fuck that. I'm not a fan.
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 3: You know, at least Montreal is where my grandfather was from.
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 3: But whatever. Buffalo. Also, they have the like most gay
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 3: beer containment device that I've ever seen. They have a
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 3: saber of beer that looks all like glittery and it's
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 3: like completely foul, like you know what it looks like
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 3: when you're drinking one of those. It's the stupidest thing
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 3: I've ever seen. And these sabers fans think that it's
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 3: awesome or something. I'm like, Nah, you're gay. Nope, it's
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 3: the stupidest thing I've ever seen. Like every other team
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 3: has a better beer container than Buffalo does. All right,
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 3: that's gonna do it my place today one more time.
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 3: Are two of them? In baseball, we have a first
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 3: five under in Brewers Twins. Four and a half is
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 3: what I found on that at a pretty decent price.
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 3: Probably would still go under four at a you know,
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 3: you get a decent price on that. Probably we're going
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 3: full game under again in Red Sox Braves under the eight,
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 3: and then we're doing a split bet puck line money
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 3: line on Buffalo to get that price down a bit.
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 3: Or if you can find a plus one puck line
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 3: at some book, you can do that too. I found
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 3: the best prices at the Lie, Like I said, the
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 3: m book. That's gonna do it. Learn it tone on Twitter,
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 3: learn it tone on Instagram. You can subscribe to me
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 3: on Twitter. That helps me out if you want to
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 3: support me that way, like it, subscribe to the channel here, man,
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 3: let's boost these numbers. We're hot, dude, I'm giving out
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 3: some of the best information out there right now. We're
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 3: on a roll. Let's keep it going. We bounced back
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 3: with a pretty nice day yesterday. So let's keep it going.
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 3: Thirty eight seventy eight, thirty seven and five run now
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 3: you can see it at the bottom there over the
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 3: last forty two days. Let's keep it going. Whatever I said,
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 3: I think it's like, I don't know. I think it's
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 3: something like eighteen and three over the last eight days
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 3: or something like that. All right, Yeah, that's gonna do it. Like,
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 3: subscribe to the channel here, let's boost this thing. Like
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 3: I said, we're on audio, Apple, Spotify, were over there
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 3: as well. Spreaker listen, give me good reviews over there.
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 3: Covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube.
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 5: Check that out as well.
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 3: Patreon dot com, slash learn to toad, you can throw
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 3: me some support there.
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 5: I put up a new cover last night.
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know if the chick who requested it has
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 3: responded to me yet, but check out that new cover.
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 3: It's Billy Joel. It's not a song I'm that familiar with,
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 3: so hopefully I did it justice. I learned it and
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 3: play and did the cover of it pretty quickly. To
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 3: be honest, I've heard the song before, but I didn't
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 3: really know it that well. And what else do we
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 3: have to promote here Loser casts every Tuesday night.
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 5: Go check that out. I don't know who my selection
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 5: is gonna be this week.
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 3: This past we going with Disney Adults, so you can
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 3: vote for them in the bowl if you want me
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 3: to win again for the loser. Uh ge Spot Giants
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 3: podcast will be back at some point, I know. I
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 3: keep saying that it hasn't happened. Be on the lookoup
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 3: for that, and obviously subscribe here because I will be
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 3: doing an NFL Win Total show soon. I already have
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 3: it all in mind of what I want to talk about,
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 3: so that's gonna be coming soon.
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 5: I just gotta get around to do it.
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 3: Man. The schedules got released on Thursday, I think, so
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 3: we know what those are now. And I did a
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 3: Preakness show. The Preakness is this evening, so I talked
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 3: about that. I did a separate show for it last night.
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 3: Go check out as well. It is up on the channel,
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 3: it is up on audio. Go check that out. That's
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 3: gonna do it. Peace everybody, thanks for hanging out, but.
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 5: Don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 1: Your names fell me something to somebody for a show.
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down. Baby, look at me. No hold on,
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 2: hold on nothing nice now, hold on, hold on.
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 3: Let me for.
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 4: That long by horn, but it don't get the crown.
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now