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What the far-right election win means for Germanys chancellor · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This election has shaken up Germany.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: We're all deeply shocked.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: The far-right Alternative for Germany party has scored a landslide
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: win in the eastern stage of Saxony-Anhalt. In Berlin, the
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: already weakened chancellor took a serious political blow. Two more
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: state elections are just days away. and both will show
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  Speaker 1: whether Saxony-Anhalt was a one-off or the start of a
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  Speaker 1: pattern that could cost Merz his authority. First, here's what
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: happened in case you missed it. If not, skip ahead
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: to the next chapter. What happened in Saxony-Anhalt? Saxony-Anhalt is
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  Speaker 1: a state in eastern Germany where less than 3% of
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  Speaker 1: the country's population lives. Yet its state election, which would
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: normally not draw much attention, sent a shockwave through the
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  Speaker 1: whole country. And that's because the far-right Alternative for Germany
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  Speaker 1: party achieved its best result in an election yet. 43.8%
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  Speaker 1: and 39 of 83 state parliamentary seats. Just three short
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  Speaker 1: of an outright majority. The AfD is now closer to
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  Speaker 1: coming into political power than ever before.
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  Speaker 2: The people have made it clear they want political change.
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  Speaker 2: And most of all, they've shown they want change with us.
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  Speaker 1: The AfD more than doubled its last result here. 20.8%
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  Speaker 1: in 2021. The CDU halved its own results from 37.1%
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  Speaker 1: down to 17.2%, the party's worst ever result in this state. Meanwhile,
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  Speaker 1: the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch is considered right-wing extremist by domestic
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  Speaker 1: intelligence services. So this election result could mean that for
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  Speaker 1: the first time in post-war Germany, a far-right party gains
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  Speaker 1: control of a state government.
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  Speaker 3: They mobilized the sentiments against democracy, the racism, the anti-democratic
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  Speaker 3: attitudes that have been there all along. And how did
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  Speaker 3: they do that? They capitalized on a sense of crisis
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  Speaker 3: that is spread through society, and they also capitalized on
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  Speaker 3: the weakness of democratic parties in Germany, particularly the CDU,
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  Speaker 3: who ran with a weak candidate.
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  Speaker 1: A consequential loss for the Conservatives. Polls suggest that about
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  Speaker 1: 75% of voters thought that Merz wasn't helping his party
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  Speaker 1: in Saxony-Anhalt, even 50% of his fellow party members. Maybe
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  Speaker 1: that's why the Chancellor only showed up twice on the
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  Speaker 1: campaign trial, both visits in the week of the election
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  Speaker 1: and with no voter contact. His party's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt,
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  Speaker 1: Sven Scholze, publicly broke with federal government positions during the campaign,
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  Speaker 1: a sign the local CDU was trying to put some
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  Speaker 1: distance between itself and Berlin. Overall, national politics played a
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  Speaker 1: massive role. Turnout was at a record high and exit
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  Speaker 1: polling pointed to the vote serving as a referendum on
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  Speaker 1: the federal government rather than local issues. A warning to Merz?
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  Speaker 1: In Berlin, shock, despite polls already foreseeing the results weeks
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  Speaker 1: in advance.
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  Speaker 2: Yesterday marked a turning point not only in Saxony-Anhalt, but
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  Speaker 2: throughout Germany. We cannot simply return to business as usual.
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  Speaker 2: We're not doing that. We've discussed this at length.
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  Speaker 3: It affects us deeply, including me personally.
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  Speaker 2: And I must admit, this is the most serious election
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  Speaker 2: defeat that the CDU has had for years, for decades.
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  Speaker 1: Our chief political editor, Michaela Küffner, who's covered Merz and
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  Speaker 1: the CDU for ages, told us how she perceived the chancellor.
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  Speaker 4: It's quite striking that he too must have known that
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  Speaker 4: a negative message will be coming from the voters. But
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  Speaker 4: it was so resounding, so There was an atmosphere of shock.
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  Speaker 4: He himself said that he needs some time to process
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  Speaker 4: what the response is. And even before people went to
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  Speaker 4: the polls, about 24 hours before, he himself said that
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  Speaker 4: his party needed to seek a different way of.
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  Speaker 1: Dealing with the AFD.
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  Speaker 4: But he doesn't really seem to have an answer.
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  Speaker 1: At the national level, too, the chancellor is struggling with
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  Speaker 1: his popularity scores. Recent surveys saw him hit a new
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  Speaker 1: personal low in approval ratings. and only 13% of the
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  Speaker 1: population say they're happy with his government. So how did
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  Speaker 1: we get here? Matt once vowed to cut AFD support
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  Speaker 1: in half. When he started the big job mid-2025, he
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  Speaker 1: ran on a platform of fixing the economy and curbing migration.
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  Speaker 1: A year later, the AfD is stronger than ever and
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  Speaker 1: support for him is shrinking.
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  Speaker 3: He won the election with empty promises. It was clear
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  Speaker 3: before the last election, the Bundestag election in 2025, that
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  Speaker 3: he will not be able to deliver on his promises.
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  Speaker 3: He went with it anyway.
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  Speaker 1: The autumn of reforms he promised last year didn't turn
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  Speaker 1: out as expected. and the pension reform his coalition government
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  Speaker 1: did agree on has been met with serious backlash.
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  Speaker 3: Then he repeatedly insulted, I have to say that, insulted voters.
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  Speaker 3: People are too lazy in Germany, not willing to work, etc.
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  Speaker 3: And he widened the gap between the political Berlin and
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  Speaker 3: the population. And this hybris, this arrogance towards what is
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  Speaker 3: happening on the ground is one of the decisive factors
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  Speaker 3: in the campaign of the AfD.
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  Speaker 4: Michaela Küffner puts it this way. He just hasn't been
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  Speaker 4: able to communicate well. Many people you speak to in Sachsen-Anhalt,
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  Speaker 4: but also the polling nationwide shows that people feel he
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  Speaker 4: looks down on them to some degree. He called on
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  Speaker 4: Germans that they should be working more. He didn't particularly
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  Speaker 4: explain his reform policy particularly well. And that is a
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  Speaker 4: communication problem, but potentially also a problem in how he
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  Speaker 4: perceives Germans.
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  Speaker 1: Now, before we look at how the chancellor is trying
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  Speaker 1: to turn the ship around, let's take a brief look
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  Speaker 1: at the issues that lie ahead for Saxony-Anhalt. Stay with
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  Speaker 1: me here, because they matter for all of Germany. Up
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  Speaker 1: next for Saxony-Anhalt... It's usual in Germany that multiple parties
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  Speaker 1: get together after an election to form a coalition government,
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  Speaker 1: because most of the time no single party manages to
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  Speaker 1: win an absolute majority. The AfD was actually gunning for
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  Speaker 1: just that, but failed short three seats. Part of the
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  Speaker 1: reason they wanted an outright majority? The Brandmauer or firewall.
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  Speaker 1: It's the principle that parties across the political spectrum have
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  Speaker 1: followed for years. No alliance with the far-right AfD. But
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  Speaker 1: here's the kicker. Even if all of the other parties
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  Speaker 1: could agree to form a government, they wouldn't have enough seats.
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  Speaker 1: In any case, that is highly unlikely because the CDU
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  Speaker 1: has ruled out working with the socialist left party. And
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  Speaker 1: that's where the relatively new left conservative party, the BSW,
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  Speaker 1: comes in. They garnered 5% of votes, enough to help
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  Speaker 1: the AfD into power. And they have several things in common,
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  Speaker 1: wanting the CDU out of government, being pro-Russian and anti-immigration.
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  Speaker 1: Here's what the BSW co-lead candidate told us about it
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  Speaker 1: after the election.
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  Speaker 2: For us, the firewall never existed from the start. We
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  Speaker 2: want to see our policies implemented. And of course, we
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  Speaker 2: would also implement policies proposed by other parties that are
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  Speaker 2: important to the people of Saxony and Halt. Policies that
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  Speaker 2: improve their lives here and get our economy back on track.
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  Speaker 2: And we don't care which party we do that with.
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  Speaker 1: Now there are a lot of options of how this
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  Speaker 1: could go. Here are three of them. First, the BSW
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  Speaker 1: has pitched bringing in a non-partisan state premier who works
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  Speaker 1: with all parties, also with the AFD. The Greens and
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  Speaker 1: the SPD now say they're open to debate it. Second,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: the BSW helps the AfD into power, breaking a major taboo.
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  Speaker 1: Talks between the two parties have already been announced, but
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  Speaker 1: those can still go either way. There's a third option,
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  Speaker 1: and it's likely the one Merz fears most. The AfD
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  Speaker 1: is trying to convince at least three CDU politicians to
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  Speaker 1: switch sides, join the AfD and get that absolute majority
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  Speaker 1: after all. There are more options, like any of the
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  Speaker 1: constellations forming a minority government, or even new elections. But
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: however things go, it's not looking great for the German chancellor.
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  Speaker 1: What's next for Merz? So after a defeat like this
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  Speaker 1: and polling looking the way it does, is Merz considering
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  Speaker 1: changing course on reforms? Not really.
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  Speaker 2: We need fundamental reforms in Germany. The fact we must
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  Speaker 2: not only justify them rationally but also convey them emotionally
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  Speaker 2: is now a shared responsibility. One that I too am
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  Speaker 2: committed to fulfilling.
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  Speaker 1: Though some adjustments to his proposed reforms are possible, the
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  Speaker 1: Chancellor seems determined to push ahead while changing his communication style.
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  Speaker 1: But even within his own party, some worry whether that
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  Speaker 1: will be enough.
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  Speaker 4: Nobody is openly rebelling against their party leader or Chancellor
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  Speaker 4: at this moment in time. But there is a huge
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  Speaker 4: sense of discontent and that is growing. And he himself
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  Speaker 4: didn't help that. And there's a growing sense that he
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  Speaker 4: might just not have what it takes to bring voters
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  Speaker 4: back into the big tent conservative party.
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  Speaker 1: And there's barely time to breathe with two more pivotal
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  Speaker 1: state elections on September 20. In Germany's capital, Merz's conservatives
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  Speaker 1: are going head to head with the left party, with
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  Speaker 1: the AfD polling close behind. The current government, where the
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  Speaker 1: CDU is in coalition with the centre-left SPD, is expected
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  Speaker 1: to lose its majority. But the Chancellor is likely to
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: fear the other upcoming state election much more. The eastern
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  Speaker 1: state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is also headed to the polls
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  Speaker 1: next week. Here, much like in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is
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  Speaker 1: gunning for the win. And the CDU is polling in
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  Speaker 1: the single digits. If his conservatives lose one or even
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  Speaker 1: both of these, Merz will face even more pressure.
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  Speaker 4: I expect the gloves to come off from within his
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  Speaker 4: own inner party critics once we see the results of
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  Speaker 4: those next regional elections coming in. They are also crucial
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  Speaker 4: for the coalition partner, the Social Democrats, and they will
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  Speaker 4: likely have a huge impact on the stability of the
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  Speaker 4: overall government.
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  Speaker 1: As a whole. So all eyes are on these next
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  Speaker 1: two state elections, which could shape Germany's political future.