Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Football and Focus | MLB & NFL | 9/13/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Football and Focus | MLB & NFL | 9/13/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Three team parlay turned to dust in your head. Now
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby. Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Hold on.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, let me pull you out.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: That fella fights hard, but he don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: On, stay with me now. What's up everybody, it's Toad
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: back with you, Toadstool Sports. It is Sunday, September 13th.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: If you want NFL, you gotta go check out my
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: NFL show because this is going to be focused on
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: the baseball board for today and I like the baseball
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: board today. I got a bunch of opinions and that
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: hasn't been the case the last couple days. I'm going
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: to have three plays in baseball and I'm really trying
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: to limit myself because I have a couple others that
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: I like too. I'm trying to Not do too much here,
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: not go too crazy here. We went 4-2 on the
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: show yesterday. Baseball was only 1-1. The play that I
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: added with Toronto was an easy win with their bullpen game,
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: getting the job done against Braddish. So we got that
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: one right. Good spot for Toronto to bounce back. San
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Francisco was looking decent early, but they fell apart, and
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: then they almost came back and won, so a full
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: game play actually would have at least probably pushed on
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: a plus-one run line for you or something. First five
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: did not get there, so that was bad. Bad call
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: by me. Some of my other plays were better than that.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: I shouldn't have done it. It was hard to predict
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: what San Francisco's unknown pitcher was going to do, and
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: he wasn't very good in that game, and that was
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: what happened there. College football went well. We started out
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: with a Michigan outright win. They never trailed in the game.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: They did blow a 10-0 lead, but they never fell behind,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: and then they scored the touchdown near the end to
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: win the game. I liked that one a lot. Michigan,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: that hit. A lot of my opinions were right in
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: college football yesterday, but I narrowed it down. Of course,
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: the FCS games that I'm playing, maybe I should just
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: throw those all in the dumpster pile because I thought
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Monmouth was a good move, a good spot to play them.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: That was the one loser, though. Western Michigan, it was
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: like that bowl game they had last year again, if
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: I remember correctly. Just suddenly, they put up a ton
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: of points. I will say, though, if you watched my
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: College Football Preview, I said I liked Western Michigan as
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: a value play to win the MAAC with a lot
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: of returning starters, and they look good so far. I mean,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: they pretty much beat Michigan in their first game, and
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: then they just housed Monmouth yesterday. So that Western Michigan
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: team I think is not bad. We did get the
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: covers of obviously not outright wins with the other two
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: massive underdogs. La Tech got the cover. That was never
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: really in danger. I guess maybe at one point, maybe
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: it was when they fell behind by 31 at some point,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: I think in the fourth quarter. But they scored a
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: touchdown to cut it back to 24. And at that point,
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: you're like, yeah, they're definitely covering this. They lost by 31,
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: so they covered, I think, any number that was out there.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: And then Charlotte also covered. That number was just too high, man, 47.5.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: Ole Miss was... I think, well, actually it was LSU
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: was the one that was turning it over a lot,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: I think, in their game. LSU, I think, had a
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: bunch of turnovers. I don't know if Ole Miss did.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: But Ole Miss, I just think they weren't really interested
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: and really totally running up the score in that one.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: So Charlotte, I believe, lost by something like 32. So
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: that was a pretty easy cover, actually, because the number
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: was so big.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: We'll move on to baseball for today, and I'll reiterate
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: the one NFL play that I have for today that
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: I gave out on the show. You can go watch
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: the NFL show as well, as there's still time. And
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: I did give out a play for the Monday night
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: game as well, but I think I'll reiterate it again
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: at the end of the show, I guess, but I
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: think the number will still be out there anyway.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: We got Colorado and Detroit here. Detroit. has the incentive
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: here to keep winning if they think they're still alive,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: which I don't really think so, although I think mathematically
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: I guess they are. Detroit is on the verge of
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: a sweep here, as Colorado's not very good. But I
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: do like to look to fade teams that are trying
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: to get the sweep here, and that would be Detroit here.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Who's Detroit playing next? Do they have a look ahead?
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: That's one thing that needs to be answered. Well, they're
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: playing Toronto, so maybe. I mean, that's another team that's
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: in the wildcard race. Detroit may actually look ahead here,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: so they may actually get caught in a bad spot here.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Do I actually want to back Colorado in this game? No,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. Colorado used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: Detroit used four as well. Detroit is the better of
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: the two bullpens, though. Detroit's ranked 16th, arranging it by whip.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: They're okay. Colorado's 28th, which, yeah, they're one of the
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: lesser bullpens in all of baseball. Arranging offense by OPS,
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Colorado's number five, so they are the better offense. Detroit
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: hasn't been good as of late. They're number 19 overall
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: in the season. Gabriel Hughes getting the start for Colorado.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: He looked kind of good in his first couple starts,
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: but obviously that has not changed. He has not been
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: able to sustain that. 5.81 ERA, 1.38 whip, not very good.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: He's actually way worse away from Coors Field for some reason,
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: which you don't see that often. Because obviously we know
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Coors Field really, really hit a friendly park. He's got
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: a 7.76 road ERA, though, so he's pretty unbackable on
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: the road. However, his last two outings both went pretty well.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore at home, and then he was good against
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: the Yankees last time out. They lost the game, but
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: it wasn't really his fault. I mean, there was an
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: unearned run against him. He went five innings, only allowed
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: one earned run, didn't walk anybody, had a bunch of strikeouts.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: That's not bad. So Hughes, I mean, he might not
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: be as bad as his numbers make him look. His
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: hit rate is still too high, though. His walk rate
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: is still too high as well. His strikeout rate isn't
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: anything significant. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is not great. 7.5
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine isn't anything special either. Detroit's never seen
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: him before, so he does have an unfamiliarity advantage here.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: As these young pitchers, if they do have talent, as
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: I always say, the hitters can struggle to adjust to
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: them sometimes, so he might have an advantage there. And
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: on the other side, Detroit's pitcher is not that good.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: Jackson Jobe. 4.45 ERA, 1.41 whip is definitely not good.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: He's been bad at home, 7.88 home ERA. So the
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: home road splits are very much against both starting pitchers here.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Jobe did pitch pretty well last time out against Cleveland.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: They wound up losing the game in extras, but he
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: was pretty good there. So current form, I guess, somewhat
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: okay just because of that last start, but that was Cleveland. Very,
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: very weak offense there. Certainly worse than Colorado's, although Colorado's
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: not quite as good on the road. Jobe wasn't really
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: pitching that well throughout the month of August. He's got
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: a hit rate right around one per inning, nothing great there.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Walks too many people. Strikeout rate is decent. 2.2 strikeout
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, not good, though. Walks too many guys. 8.3
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Ks per nine is all right. Jobe has a small
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: sample size against Colorado. They got nine at-bats against him,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: four hitters to face him, and they do have a.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: 444 average against him and an. 889 OPS against him
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: without any extra base hits. No strikeouts and also no walks. So, yeah,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: I don't trust either pitcher here. I think maybe the
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: best way to play this game is to just play
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: the over. Just fade both pitchers. They're both in the
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: bad home road splits here. The total's reasonable. It's like 8.5, 9.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: So you're not having to pay that extra hook on
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: the 9.5 there. 74% of tickets, 87% of the cash
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: on the over. So it seems like the money is
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: kind of coming in that way as well. I think
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: that's what I would do if I was going to
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: play this. I would play the over. It's a little
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: bit hard to predict what's going to happen here, though,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: and I would still lean to Colorado in the first
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: five just given the situation favoring them, and I think
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: you might be able to make the argument they have
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher here, too, at least in matchup-wise
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: you could make that argument, too, although it's very hard
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: to tell with almost no sample size to work with.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: We have 85% of tickets, 87% of the cash on Detroit.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: They're around minus 150-something. on the money line, the public's
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: going to be on them because they're the better team
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: and everybody knows they need to keep winning. But in
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: a spot like this with a pitcher like this on
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: the mound, you might be able to take the shot
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: with Colorado in the first five, plus a half run
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: maybe if the money line is high. I don't know.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think maybe the over is preferable on
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: that one though. Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Whether to play the Panthers or... not, fuck Caleb Williams. Dude,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: every time that I played against the Bears last year,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: it was a bullshit loss. Do you really think that
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Giants loss was legitimate or the Packers one in the playoffs?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: No.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Fuck no. Bears are going to have major regression. I
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: think the Bears missed the playoffs this year. That's another
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: way that you could bet them to miss the playoffs
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: as a future as well. Fuck the Bears. Panthers are
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: definitely the right side in that game. Even if it loses,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's the wrong side. All right. Let's see.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Don't be a pussy, man. All right. New York. Oh, no, sorry. Angels-Washington.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: I've only talked about one game so far, and we're
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: 10 minutes in. This is bad, really bad. This is
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: going to be one of my plays, by the way.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: because we have bigger sample sizes to work with here.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the over in this one,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: Anaheim and Washington. Washington still known for playing a lot
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: of overs at home, mostly because their pitching isn't that
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: good and their offense is pretty good. I know Anaheim's
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: offense isn't very good, but I think we're looking at
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: some pretty bad pitching across the board here. Washington used
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: three relief pitchers yesterday. Anaheim used three as well. Don't
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: like either bullpen. Washington's quite bad at No. 26. They're
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: the second-worst bullpen ERA as well. Anaheim's not really that
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: much better at No. 22. Hitting-wise, Washington's No. 3. Anaheim
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: is not good, though. Anaheim's dead last. But I still
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: think they can contribute to the run total here in
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: this one. Yesterday's game did go over, I believe. It
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: was 6-5. There's a little bit of precedent for it there.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Washington is also on the verge of a sweep, by
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: the way. If you're looking at the side here and
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: thinking Anaheim, I guess there's the possibility of that. Washington
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: plays Philadelphia next. They do have a big divisional series
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: next for them at the very least. Washington's not going anywhere,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: but Philadelphia is a team they might actually get up for.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: This is not a good spot. for Washington here, so
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: there might be some arguments to be made for Anaheim here.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: I'm going to make the over-argument, though, which is these
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: pitchers suck. Grayson Rodriguez pitching for Anaheim, not a good
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: season from him, trying to come back from being out
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: for an entire season with an injury. 6.28 ERA, 1.57 whip,
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: not good. He is actually better on the road, though, 4.71
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: road ERA, but I'm not sure that's going to help
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: him enough. He wasn't good last time out on the
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: road against the Red Sox. Very poor form this month,
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: even though his strikeout rate's been okay. He's been hittable.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: He's been walking a bunch of guys. He's given up
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: almost a run and inning over his starts against the
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Red Sox and the Yankees. And Washington, like I said,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: they are a good offense, and he's having to go
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: up against them. He's got a high hit rate, walk
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: rate not very good. Strikeout rate is okay. He's got
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: a two strikeout walk ratio, though. Given that he has
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: an 8.3K per nine, that means he's walking a lot
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: of guys, which is the case. Washington only has eight
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: at-bats against them, so this is a small sample size here,
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: but they have a 500 average, 1,000 OPS against them,
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: two strikeouts, no walks. But I think we've seen enough
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: of G-Rod here to kind of know what we're getting here,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: and I think that Washington can get some runs off
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: him here. I'm also going to fade Jake Irvin on
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: the other side, who's pitching for Washington, 5.52 ERA, 1.42 whip,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: nothing good about that. He's worse at home, 6.75 home ERA.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: He's been mediocre at best in his last few outings.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, he hasn't given up that many runs, but
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: he's not going deep into these outings, which means we
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: might get a decent amount of Washington's terrible bullpen coming
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: into this game. Irvin, he's still giving up too many hits.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is still not exactly that good. His
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: hit rate, not great on the season. His walk rate
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: is definitely too high on the season. His strikeout rate
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: is okay. But he's got a 2.1 strikeout walk ratio
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: because of the walks. 8.9 strikeout per nine is all right.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: But again, walks too many guys and it's too hittable.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: And he's not good against Anaheim. So if you're worried
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: about Anaheim's offense not being able to do their part here, well,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: they have 22 at-bats against him. I know it's not
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: a ton, but most of their hitters have seen him.
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: They have a 318 average and 991 OPS against him
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: with a 3-3 strikeout walk ratio. So I will give
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: out the over in this one. And the money seems
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: to very much agree with that. 72% of the tickets
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: are on the under. 83% of the cash on the over.
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: I believe you can find a nine out there at
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: some books. This number looks like it's at the Roman
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: Emperor's book right now. DK is not too far off
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: from that. The Lion book also isn't. Although it looks
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: like the sharper Vegas books have a lower total on it,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: which worries me a little bit. But the money seems
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: to agree. And I think I gave you the argument
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: for the over here. So that's what I'm going to
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: go with. I think generally we're getting weak pitching throughout
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: this game, so I think the offenses should be able
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: to put up enough runs to get that thing over,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: especially we're not having to pay the hook. Find the nine.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: That's why I said you've got to have as many
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: books available as possible, man. I think you should be
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: able to find a nine on that. I'd still agree
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: with the nine and a half, but obviously I don't
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: want to lay that extra half run on top of
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: that key number. Am I right? Oh, thank you. Yeah, well,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to get every play right. I mean,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: we're just trying to get enough of them right to profit.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the main goal here. Mets, Yankees. The
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: Mets killed the Yankees yesterday, 12-2. Didn't see that coming,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: even though I had a slight lean to the Mets
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: in that game. I thought the under would be a
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: play yesterday. I guess Garrett Cole, I guess, was not
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: good in the game yesterday. You probably don't have to
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: worry as much about the Yankees pitching in this one, though.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: It's going to be CS versus CS pitching in this one,
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: and maybe this is going to be an under. We
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: have two good bullpens here. Yankees used three guys out
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen, but because it was a blowout, the
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: better relievers didn't come in. Mets only used one guy,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: long relief man Myers. So the bullpens should be ready
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: to go in this one. The Yankees are number three
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: in bullpen right now. They're number two in bullpen ERA
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: right now. It's close between them and the Red Sox.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: The Mets are number seven overall in the bullpen, so
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: we're looking at two good bullpens here. Yankees are on
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: the rise offensively again, although they didn't do much yesterday,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: but they're number 13. The Mets are still not good,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: even though they did a ton yesterday. They're number 23,
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: tied with San Diego, but they've been at least somewhat
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: better since getting eliminated. Christian Scott pitching for the Mets.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty decent. 3.81 ERA. 1.29 whip is.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Not exactly great, but he's been alright. 3.98 road ERA.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse on the road, but not
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: too bad. He was struggling with the walks a bit
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: throughout August and was mediocre at best in August. The
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: Mets kept winning most of his starts, though, and he
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: pitched a little bit better last time out against San Francisco,
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: but didn't go that deep into the game. I don't
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: know what we're going to get out of Scott here.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate. He's been hard to hit.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: He has a really high strikeout rate, so that's a
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: good Indicator that he's definitely able to fool guys at
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: the Major League level. It means his stuff is good,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: but obviously you know what his problem is. He's wild.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is not that good. 2.7 strikeout walk
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: ratio and a 10.9 strikeout per nine. So he's got talent.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: He's got strikeout stuff. And the Yankees only have 11
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him. Four hitters have faced him. they have
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: a one 82 average against them. So he's held them
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: down average wise, but they have a nine Oh three OPS.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: It's hard to gauge what this means. Cause it's a
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: small sample size. Garcia has a home run off and, uh,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: Garcia having a really good power hitting season this year.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: One of the Yankees, uh, moves that at the deadline,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: which I questioned it a little bit, even though he's
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: a good hitter, it was just like, where are the
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: Yankees going to put him like in the field essentially,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: or is he going to be a DH? You know,
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: it was a little bit weird. Um, because they think
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: he's a first baseman or whatever, and the Yankees did
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: not really need that. But they added him for his bat.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Two strikeouts, three walks here for the Yankees against Scott. Generally, though,
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: I think Scott might be able to pitch well here,
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: because generally he has done that, and that's a small
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: sample size. And obviously I do not think Schlitter is
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: going to be bad on the other side. He's pitching
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: for the Yankees. He hasn't really shown signs of fatiguing
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: with the amount of innings that he's thrown, which is
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: a concern with these young pitchers. Like, how are they
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: going to deal with the innings count being really high?
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Hasn't been a problem for him. He's got a 2.0.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, it looked like he was struggling a little bit,
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: but he's doing good in his last couple outings. 2.01 ERA,.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: 92 whip. He's still the front runner for the Cy
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Young here. 5.2 strikeout walk ratio is excellent. Yeah, 11.1
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, also really good. He is slightly worse
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: at home, 3.21 home ERA, but obviously that's not bad.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: He's been racking up a ton of strikeouts recently. Bianchi's
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: won his last four starts. He stopped walking, guys, and
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: hasn't walked any in his last two outings. Only gave
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: up two runs over the last 15 innings with five
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: hits allowed with 19 strikeouts and no walks. So, yeah,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: he's in good form right now. And I don't really
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: see the Mets doing much of anything against them. They
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: got 23 at-bats against them, 130 average, 504 OPS, 7-2
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah, the Yankees should win this game,
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: you would think, in a bounce back from yesterday's embarrassment
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: as well. But you've got to lay minus 180-whatever with
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: them here, which is a high price. Of course, you
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: know you're going to have to lay a huge price
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: with the Yankees with Schlittler on the mound. 87% of
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: the tickets, 92%. of the cash on them, so the
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: money might still be backing them, even though they're a
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: public side. I would not want to play the Mets
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: in this one, I'll tell you that. I thought the
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Mets were the right side of the two in the
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: first two games of the series, and they won one
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: of the two, but I don't think they're the right
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: side in this one. I think the Yankees do win,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: but I think the under might be the way to
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: play this game. The total is low. It's 7.5. It's
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: low for a reason. I think generally the pitching is
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: good throughout this game. 86% of tickets, 94% of the
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, but I don't know. It might
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: be a public over because it's the Yankees involved, even
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: though it is Schlittler. I like the under here. You
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: could also maybe go Mets under their team total, but
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: you're getting a little dangerous with that because they're going
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: to have to score two or less probably if you
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: do that. So I think maybe, yeah, just... Get the
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: better of the number there and take the full game
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: under seven and a half, and the bullpens might be
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: able to help out get you there. I think that's
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: what I would do in that game, but do I
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: want to put it on my card? No. No, I
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: do not. And Scott might be a little bit concerning. Yes.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: This is a new year. The Bears fluked big time
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: last year, man. Their defense was bad. They had the
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: best turnover margin in the NFL. That means they're going
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: to regress this year. That's That's an unsustainable number. You
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: can't sustain a turnover margin across multiple seasons like that,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: even if you are a ball-hocking defense or whatever. Things
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: like that regress. It's just too many balls bouncing your
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: way and whatever. You know what I mean? So no,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: I think basically every time it's happened when a team has...
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: had like a plus 20 something turnover differential, which it's
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: only happened several times ever in the NFL. And that's
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: how insane Chicago's was last year. And kind of the
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: luck factor there. Every time it's happened, I think the
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: team has regressed to a point where there are only
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: plus three at best in turnover margin the next year.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: So things to consider there. Um, and yeah, and of
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: course the public is all over the bears in that one. Uh,
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: so the books kind of need the bears to not
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: win that game. Um, they're probably going to be in, uh,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: in parlays as well. Um, Philadelphia and Atlanta here. I
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: don't know where Garrett is right now, our Atlanta fan here.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's on the verge of a sweep. They blew out
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: the Phillies yesterday. I said that I was going to
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: like the under in that game if Luzardo was going
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: to pitch because it was going to be Luzardo against Molly.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Molly did well. Luzardo did not pitch. So that game,
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: it was a pass. Like Phillies went with kind of
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game and it did not go well. Now
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: the Braves are on the verge of a sweep here.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: They got a big lead in the division. I think
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: Atlanta might not be in a good spot here. Atlanta,
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: next up, they are playing Chicago, the Cubs. So I
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: guess there's a possibility of looking ahead there, even though
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: this is a divisional series here against Philly. But Atlanta's
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: already won this series. So situation, I think, favors Philadelphia here.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: Do we want to actually come in and play Philadelphia?
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I think it's not totally out
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: of the question, at least, that you might want to
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: go that way here. with the sweep avoiding spot here,
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: although Atlanta is the better bullpen. Atlanta used one guy
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday. Philadelphia had a bullpen game,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: so they used five, so the bullpen edge that Atlanta
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: has is probably going to be exacerbated. They're number two
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: in bullpen here. I think, yeah, they're like a top
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: Three or four bullpen probably, I would say. Philadelphia is
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: definitely not. Philadelphia is number 18, and their ERA is
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: kind of sketchy, in the mid-fours almost. Atlanta is also
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: the better batting team. They are number 14, Philly number 20.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is tied with the A's. Philly is tied with
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: Baltimore currently. Andrew Painter getting the start for Philadelphia. He's
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: been better since they sent him to the minors. He's
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: a rookie, and he was not good early in the season.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: His season number is obviously not good. 5.71 ERA, 1.41 whip.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: But since they brought him back up from the minors,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: he's been a lot better, except his last start wasn't good.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: He's got a 5.34 road ERA, so he is actually
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: a little bit better on the road. They brought him
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: back up from the minors, and he's been pretty good.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: He's had two bad starts since they did that in
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: late July. He's allowed three or fewer runs in all
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: but two of his starts since then. In eight starts,
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: I believe is what that is. So he's not pitching
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: that badly, although his last start wasn't really that good.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Houston hit him around quite a bit. He's got too
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: high of a hit rate still in the season. Doesn't
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: really walk that many guys, though, at this point. His
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is also kind of bad, though. 2.5 strikeout
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. He's not a huge strikeout pitcher. 7.9 strikeout
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: per nine. Numbers against Atlanta, though, they're not good. 41 at-bats,
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: 317 average, 876 OPS allowed, 5-3 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: I don't think I want to back him in this one,
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: even though the situation does favor Philly here. I think
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup still does favor Atlanta here. Grant Holmes
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Atlanta. He's been... good although i don't
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: think he's as good as zra makes him look 3.46
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: he's got a 1.29 whip so he's putting a fair
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: amount of guys on base he's also not as good
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: at home 4.54 home era isn't really that good pretty
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: good recently though he hasn't allowed a run in his
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: last nine innings uh had a short start there for
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: some reason then he had a six inning shutout against
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: these phillies uh the last time he pitched so um
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: The Phillies are seeing him right away again, which sometimes
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: does help the offense a little bit, but I'm not
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: sure with Holmes because Philly's already seen him plenty, so
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: it might not help him that much. He has a
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: pretty low hit rate here. His walk rate has been
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: his main concern. His strikeout rate isn't really that high either,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: so his strikeout walk ratio is actually pretty pitiful at 1.9.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Combination of walking too many guys and not striking out
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys. His strikeout per nine dropped a
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: lot this year, down to 7.2 or so. I don't
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: know exactly what's going on with that, but he hasn't
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: been bad. His numbers against the Phillies are also fairly good.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: An 85 at-bats, 200 average, 633 OPS allowed, 21 strikeouts.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: The only issue here is the walks yet again. 11
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: walks in there. But the matchup to me seems to
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: favor Atlanta here. The situation would favor Philly, but I
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: think the matchup might overtake that. I would lean Atlanta
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: here probably. The money seems to agree with that. 64%
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: of the tickets. 84% of the cash on them at
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: about minus 130. I don't know. It seems like too
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: much of a mismatch here. Plus, Atlanta's got the better
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: bullpen still. So I think full game Atlanta may be
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: the way to lean in that one. Am I going
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: to play it? No, I'm not. Garrett, what's up? Thanks
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. Baltimore and Toronto. I looked at this one,
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: and my first thought on this one was this is
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: going to be an under because you've got two offenses
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: that aren't really that good. But remember, Toronto had a
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen game yesterday, so they used a lot of bullpen arms.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: They got us a win with it. They used six
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: relief arms, though, so their bullpen is not exactly in
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: great shape right now. Baltimore used four. Toronto, I think
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: Toronto is the better of the two bullpens, but after
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: using all those guys yesterday, I don't think I'd really
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: want to back them, even though it is expanded bullpens
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: in September. Toronto, number 17 in bullpen. Their ERA is
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: pretty good, though. Baltimore's ERA is worse, even though they're
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: ranked 11th out of the bullpen, but I think the bullpen,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are closely matched. I would say here, uh,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: as far as the offenses, part of the reason for
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: maybe like in the unders of the offenses, aren't really
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: that good. Baltimore number 20, as I just mentioned, tied
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: with Philly Toronto's number 27. They've been bad pretty much
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: all year. Trevor Rogers pitching for Baltimore was good for
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: them last year. Seemingly from out of nowhere, didn't pitch
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: well at the beginning of this year, but then he
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: completely flipped the script and he's been a lot better
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: in the second half of the season and He's got
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: a 4.15 ERA, 1.21 whip. I mean, nothing spectacular here,
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: but not bad. He is a little bit worse on
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: the road, 4.34 road ERA. Good form recently, though. Last
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: three starts, he's racked up 24 strikeouts and only walked
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: one guy across 19 innings. So that's pretty good, man.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Though the first of those starts, he gave up a
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: lot of runs, but his command has been awesome. And
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: his last two starts, he's been quite good, one of
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: them at Coors Field. The other against Cleveland, a lot
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: less impressive. But still, his last two starts have been
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: very good. His hit rate is still a little bit
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: higher than I would like. His walk rate's not bad, though,
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is okay, but his ratio's going
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: to be all right there. He had 3.7 strikeout walk ratio,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: not bad. Strikeout per nine, 8.2, also not too bad.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: and Rodgers against Toronto in the Rodgers Center, I believe.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Not named after him. He pitches well against Toronto, though.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: They have 54 at-bats against him, a 204 average, 647 OPS,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: 13-7 strikeout walk ratio. Too many walks, but the rest
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: of these numbers are good, so I think Rodgers can
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: hold his own. He's in good form. He's got good
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers against Toronto, so I think he should pitch
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: well here. So why don't I want the under, then?
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: Dylan Cease is on the other side, right? Well, first
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: of all, the bullpens are a little bit sketchy here,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: and if you're going to limit this to the first
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: five innings, you're going to be looking at that dreaded 3.5 number,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: whereas if you take the full game, you'll get that
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: key number of 7. I think you'll get under 7.5.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: Is it worth it? I was thinking maybe because obviously
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: we know Dylan Cease is very good, a 2.4 ERA, 1.04 whip.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: He's got a 2.91 home ERA, so he is slightly
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: worse at home, but still not bad. He gave up
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: some runs last time out. but it was at the
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: A's stadium and one of the runs was unearned and
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: He really didn't put many guys on base, so I'm
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: not going to really knock him much for that start.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: He's been pitching well. He's been in good form recently,
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: except Cease always just tends to be a little bit
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: too wild. It's just always what he does. He's pretty
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: much unhittable, walks too many guys, and strikes out a
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: ton of guys as well. Strikeout walk ratio, 3.4. with
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: an elite strikeout rate of 12.7, it's just because he
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: still walks too many guys, but he's very good, however,
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Baltimore actually has been able to do some damage against him,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: they have 43 at-bats, 279 average, 829 OPS against him,
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: so that also takes me away from actually backing the
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: under here, I just, I don't know, maybe I need
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: too many things to line up for me, but I
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: don't like Cease's matchup numbers here at all. 18 strikeouts,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: four walks is good, but Baltimore, they've had his number
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: a little bit, so I am not going to deal
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: with that. Now, these teams have split the series so far.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: They're both battling for wildcard positioning, so the motivation should
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: be there on both sides. The money is heavily backing Baltimore,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: and I actually think I agree with that. 80% of
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: the tickets are on Toronto because everybody wants to back
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: Cease here around minus 150, but you know, you're paying
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit whenever you back cease and Rogers has
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: the better matchup numbers here. He's playing in a place
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: that has his name on it. 60% of the cash
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: on Baltimore. So it's a pros versus Joe's scenario here. Yeah.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: I think I like Baltimore in this one and maybe
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: the bullpen can actually get you there too, because Toronto's
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: is more used than Baltimore is, or you could go
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: first five Baltimore if you want. Um, maybe they have
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge here though. I don't know. Um, I
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: would be back and forth between those two things. I
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: do still lean under in this game though. Um, it
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: seems like more of an under than an over 67%
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on the over 51% of the cash
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: on the over and the totals low. It has to
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: be that low with a cease game like this against
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: a pretty capable pitcher on the other side too. It's
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: at seven and a half heavily juiced to the under.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: I think I still agree with the under, but the
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: bullpens worry me. So maybe a first five under, even
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: though you're not going to get a great number on
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: that three or three and a half, but I don't know. I'm,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: Baltimore might actually be the preferable way to play that game.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: All right. Yes. Uh, the Panthers, we do have a
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: play on the Panthers today. All right. Um, Houston, Tampa Bay,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: this one almost made the cut for me. I like
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: the under again in this one. I was right about
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: it yesterday. So it almost made it for me yesterday, man.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: I almost put that one on my car, the under,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: and it hit both games in the series have gone
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: under Tampa Bay. I was able to gain a game
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: again on the Yankees yesterday. Um, Tampa Bay on the
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: verge of a sweep here, though. Houston, they've got to
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: be in desperation mode here, man, because they're trying to
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: win their division, still trying to make the playoffs. Tampa
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Bay is in a better position. Like, Tampa Bay is
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: not going to miss the playoffs at the very least,
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: even though Tampa is very good at home and they're
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: still playing with motivation because they're trying to keep pace
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: with the Yankees here. But Houston is going to have more,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: I think, more motivation out of the two and trying
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: to avoid the sweep, you know. Tampa Bay plays the
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: A's next, though, so that's not really a look-ahead spot. Um,
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: and Tampa, you know, they better just clean up against
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: the A's. You know what I mean? If they want
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: to stay in first place, I'm rooting for anybody except
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: the Yankees pretty much. And I don't really like the
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: Dodgers obviously, but whatever. Tampa Bay used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: They use their closer back-to-back days though, Baker. And, uh,
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: so he will not be available here. Houston used three
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers as well. Uh, they did not use their closer.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: It doesn't look, I think their closer is hater if
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken. Um, He's a hater, man. Houston is
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: number 13 in bullpen. Tampa's number four, but they both
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: have an ERA slightly above four. These are pretty comparable bullpens,
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: and Houston's might have a slight edge because they have
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: their high leverage arms more available here. Houston is number
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: 12 offensively. The Rays are number six. So we have
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: two pretty good offenses here, but good pitching can defeat
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: good offense, and I think that might be, again, what
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: you're going to get here. Hayden Wisniewski is pitching for Houston.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit hard to figure out. I don't
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: mean for opposing hitters, although maybe that too, but I
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: think he's hard to gauge how good he really is,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: although he was pretty good before his injuries and whatever.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: This season has been a decent bounce back for him.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.35 ERA, 1.03 whip, not bad at all. 3.8
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: road ERA, so he's a little bit worse on the road,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: but that's still not bad. For the most part, he's
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: pitching well. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: all but one start. Not bad at all. His hit
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: rate's very low. His walk rate is okay enough. His
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is low, though, so he's not really a
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio. So actually, yeah, his
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: walk rate is pretty low, but his strikeout rate is
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: Not particularly high. It's 7.1, which is lower than what
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: he was posting in the past. I still think he's
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: a pretty good pitcher, though. And Tampa's 0-4 off in lifetime.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: It's a very small sample, though. Only three hitters have
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: faced him. But 0-4 with two strikeouts and a walk
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: from Diaz. What else is new? So do with that
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: information what you want. It's a very small sample. But
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: that also means Wisniewski is unfamiliar to most of Tampa's lineups.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: That might help him a little bit. Freddy Peralta on
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: the other side. Had a good career, was really bad
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: with the Mets this season. Now he's on Tampa, and
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: he is actually starting to kind of regain form and
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: pitch better. And we backed him in his last start,
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: and we got a win with it. He's got a 4.82 ERA, 1.36 whip. So, yeah,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: this has been his worst season. But I think he's
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: better when he's on a team that is a contending team, man.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: It just seems that way to me. And he's been
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: a better home pitcher this year, 3.89 home ERA. Last
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: couple of starts have been good. He's allowed two runs
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: total in his last 18 innings of work. That's pretty good, man.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: And he faced Atlanta last time out. That was the
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: game we got a win on on the show. And Atlanta's,
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: you know, they're not an offense that's like a pushover.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: And he pitched really well in that one, except he
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: didn't really strike anybody out. But he still was really
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: good in that one. So, yeah, Peralta has kind of
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: turned it around, man. It seems like he's in form now,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: stringing together three pretty good starts in a row here.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is still bad on the season. It's
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: one per inning. His walk rate is still a problem.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: He does allow a lot of home runs. Strikeout rate
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: is actually getting a little bit better at this point.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: Throughout his career, his main problem has been he's a
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: little bit wild, but he's usually had that a bit
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: more under control than this year. This year, he's got
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: a 2.6 strikeout walk ratio, but it is dramatically improved
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: with Tampa Bay. It's in the fours. With Tampa Bay,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: he's been a lot closer to what he was throughout
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: the rest of his career. so he might be more
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: backable right now. He's got an 8.4K per nine this season,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: which was actually higher with the Mets, believe it or not.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, maybe Tampa's coaches worked with him
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: and they figured something out. Peralta's been very good against
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Houston as well, and 43 at-bats, 116 average allowed, 434 OPS,
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: 14-6 strikeout walk ratio. So yeah, I like the under
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: in this one. Again, I think you have decent enough
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: bullpens here. Where's the number on this? Let me see.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: The money's not agreeing with it at all, but the
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: total is low. It's 7.5 or 8. So, you know,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: you're going to get at least above that key number
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: of 7 there. And the oddsmakers are telling you they
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: don't think this is going to be that high scoring
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: of a game. 73% of tickets on the under, though.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: 84% of the cash on the over. That worries me
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but I like the under on this one.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: It was very close to being a play for me. So... Yeah,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, hopefully my intuition is just working correctly today.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: Dodgers at Miami. This is an interesting case where we
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: have two streaks that just ended. So Miami just ended
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: a four-game losing streak with a win over the Dodgers
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: yesterday to even the series. Miami may be more desperate
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: here as they're trying to hang on to any last
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: hope that they have of making the playoffs, which is
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: not going to happen at this point, even though at
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: the middle of the season they were in playoff position.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: But what I think is going to happen here potentially
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: is that Miami might be able to win this game
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: because when you end a losing streak like that, a
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: lot of times it gives you that new momentum and
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: it propels you forward. So as far as the momentum,
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: I think it favors Miami here as the Dodgers momentum
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: just came to a screeching halt after they had won
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: whatever this is, eight or nine games in a row,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: and they just lost. And when you lose a long
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: win streak like that, a lot of times it will
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: hang you over. into the next game. So possibly that's
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: what's going to happen to L.A. here in this one.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: They don't have a look ahead, though. L.A. is only
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: playing Cincinnati next. Although I think they just played Cincinnati,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: I feel like, right? Maybe I'm wrong about that. I
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: don't know. But I don't think they care much about
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati anyway. But the pitching matchup here actually supports Miami,
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, too. The Dodgers are going to be
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: a pretty heavy favorite here. But I think Miami's got
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher here, and they're in the better
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: momentum spot here. So I like Miami in this one.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know about their bullpen, though. Miami used five
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Dodgers used only two,
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: so maybe a Miami first five play is worth a
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: look in this one. Miami, number nine in bullpen. Dodgers,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: number 10. Dodgers have the better bullpen ERA, though, and
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: given the usage, I don't think I want to back
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: Miami's bullpen here. Dodgers, number two offensively. Miami, number eight,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: although I don't think Miami's really that good. Dodgers have
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: Emmitt Sheehan on the mound here. He's not one of
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: their better starters, although I do think he's better than
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: his 5.08 ERA makes him look, but he's been a
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: guy that I think he's been pitching out of the
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: bullpen to some extent here, and they put him back
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: in the starting rotation to kind of push the rotation
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: back and give other guys rest, whatever. He was the
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: guy who pitched uh when we didn't know who was
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: going to pitch for them last time out he actually
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: pitched pretty well against the reds he's got a 5.08
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: era overall but his 1.26 whip is not too bad
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: and he's a little bit better at home 4.91 home
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: era uh he was He's been alternating good and bad starts, actually,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: to some degree, and that would mean that this start
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: is going to be bad if that was the case. Although,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: I actually think he might have been in the minors,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: and then they called him up when September started. Wake
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: me up when September begins, I guess, for these guys
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: that are in the minors. I think that must have
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: been what they did. He was in the minors, and
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: then with the expanded rosters, okay, call him back up.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: I think that's what they did, and a lot of
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: times that will give a guy a spark, and it did,
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: and he pitched well against Cincinnati, but that's Cincinnati. They're
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: a very weak offense. Miami's not as weak as that.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Sheehan overall, his hit rate's okay. His walk rate's not
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: too bad. Strikeout rate is good, so he does have
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: strikeout stuff, which is what I've been saying the last
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: couple years. I do think he has talent. He has
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: the ability to strike major league hitters out. He put
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: up really good numbers last year, but this year there's
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: been a bit of regression here. 3.8 strikeout walk ratio.
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: Last year made it look like he was, like, really,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: really on to something, you know, and becoming the next thing,
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: but hasn't really happened. Maybe just lack of consistency, though,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: because the Dodgers have way too many fucking starting pitchers. But, yeah,
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: Sheehan has a 3.8 strikeout walk ratio this year. It's
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: not bad. 10.5K per nine. That's pretty good as well.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: Miami's never seen him before, so that's the thing. He
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: might actually pitch well here, so I don't really want
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: to actually back Miami here, but I think they may
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: have the better starter here. The starter that's had the
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: better season, at least, Uri Perez, who's still a really
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: young guy, and he's got a lot of talent as well.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.94 ERA, 1.24 whip. Yeah, I mean,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: he walks too many guys. He's pretty good at home, though, 3.31
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: home ERA. My problem with him, though, is his last
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: three starts were all bad. The last one at home,
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: he came back home and he had a bad start there, too.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: He's walking way too many guys. His walk number's gone up.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Big-time problem, and he's allowed way too many runs recently.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Five-plus runs in each of his last three starts. Not
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: going five innings in any of them, so that's a problem.
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: He's not in good form right now. His hit rate's still...
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: Good on the season. It's really low, in fact. His
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: walk rate is high, though. He walks too many guys.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: Also does get a lot of strikeouts. So he's got
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: that strikeout ability, man. He's just wild. He's got a 2.4
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, which is the worst that he's posted.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: So he's having some issues here. 9.7 strikeout per night.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: So really it means his walk number is... He's had
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: some walk problems in the past, but his walk number
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: this year has actually been the worst that it's been,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: so he's got to figure that out, and it's bad recently. However,
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: he's good against the Dodgers. It's a small sample, 20 at-bats.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Seven of their hitters have faced him, but they have
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: a 150 average against him, 390 OPS, 6-1 strikeout walk ratio,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: and one extra base hit from Teoscar Hernandez, a double.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: What do we do with this game? I mean, I'm
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: passing on it. I think there are a bit too
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: many variables here. I do like Miami in the first
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: five here. Dodgers are going to be public, which they are,
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: 83% of tickets, although they have 93% of the cash
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: on them. They're in the minus 140s on the money
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: line here. But you're getting Miami at a decent price.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: I would say Miami first five, and I think you
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: might be backing the better starting pitcher, but his current
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: form really, really is worrisome. So that concerns me, and
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: I do lean under in this game as well. The
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: total's at eight, 83% of tickets, 60% of the cash
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: on the under, so the market read is not agreeing
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: with that. But I think you have two pitchers that
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: might actually be capable here. And the bullpen's not too
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: bad at least. So with the call-ups and whatever, yeah.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: I think under and Miami in the first five. I
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: think my preference is Miami first five because it's the
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: momentum spot and whatever. You'll get them as an underdog
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: in the first five. Maybe you can even get a
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: half run on that at a decent price. But is
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: it going to make the cut for me? No, it
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: is definitely not. Out of the ones that I've talked
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: about so far that have not been my plays, the
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: best one, Is Houston-Tampa under, in my opinion, so far?
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: This next game is going to be a play for me.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: You already know what this is. I'm just worried about
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: how much is Cincinnati going to limit our boy here
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: as we get down the stretch, which they did last
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: time out, and we still should have gotten the win
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: on it, but I'm going to do this again here anyway.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati plus the half run in the first five, and
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: I actually found this at the The scoreboard book that
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: used to be owned by ESPN had this at plus 110.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I don't think you can find that in most places,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: but I think you can find a decent number on this.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I'm going to do it again. I'm going to back
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: Chase Burns in the first five, man, against a Milwaukee
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: team that they've just beaten up on the Reds pitching
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: in this series.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: 20-0.
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: And then I was correct about the over yesterday, 13-9. So.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: Wish I made it a play because that was an
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: easy over in that game yesterday. Both games have gone
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: way over the total here. Maybe that means you could
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: come in on an under in this game, but I
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: don't think I really want to do that, although maybe.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: But Milwaukee, they may start looking ahead, man. I mean,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: they've won five games in a row. Now they swept
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. Now they've taken the series from the Reds.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: They've gotten their revenge for losing to the Reds a
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: little while ago in Cincinnati. Now Milwaukee might start looking ahead, man,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: because they do have Pittsburgh on deck, which is a
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: bigger series than Cincinnati at least. Pittsburgh, at least a
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: somewhat better team than Cincinnati. So Milwaukee, not in the
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: greatest spot here, and I do think we have the
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: edge with the starting pitching here. However, last time we
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: took a loss with Burns in the first five. We've
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: gotten a lot of wins with him in the first
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: five this year. He is a first five warrior, let's say,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: because we hate the Reds' bullpen, and Burns is very good.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: Problem is, Cincinnati limited him to three innings last time out,
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: but we still should have gotten the win. He had
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: a 1-0 lead going into the bottom of the fifth,
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: and what happened? Two on and runs with two outs
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: came home against us, and we lost the game that way.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: It was a brutal way to lose that fucking game, man.
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: Just absolutely irritating. other than we lost the game that
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: way with two unearned runs with two outs in the
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: bottom of the fifth. Come on, man. That was after
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati brought Williamson in, in relief of Burns, but hopefully
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: Burns gets us most of the way through this five, man. Cincinnati,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: come on, man. Don't limit Burns that much here, but
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: we're going to avoid Cincinnati's bullpen here. Cincinnati used a
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: bunch of relief pitchers. These five guys yesterday, their bullpen
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: is certainly worse than Milwaukee's. Milwaukee also used five, but yeah,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's got the bullpen edge here. They're number eight, but
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: they're a top five bullpen at worst. Cincinnati is not
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: even close. Cincinnati is number 25. Hitting-wise, Milwaukee's also way better,
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: number four. So that is a slight concern here. Cincinnati
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: number 25, but I think good pitching can defeat good hitting.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: We're back in good pitching here with Chase Burns on
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: the mound, 2.73 ERA, 1.14 whip. He's a little bit
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: worse on the road, 3.36 road ERA, but still not bad.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Three shutout innings last time out. That was against L.A.,
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: by the way. That was the game where we lost
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: with the two unearned runs there. Burns was awesome in
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: the game. He had a no-hitter. They took him out
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: with a no-hitter? What are you doing, man, after only
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: three innings? I know, but still. Burns is still pitching well.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, I am worried a little bit they're going
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: to limit him a little bit here again, but if
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: he gets us through the majority of the first five,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Let's squeak on through it, man. Come on, man. Just
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: let him go five innings. Come on. He's got a
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: low hit rate here. His walk rate is a little
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: bit high, though. His strikeout rate is also really high.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: So he's a little bit wild, but for the most part,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: very good. 3.5 strikeout walk ratio is good. 10.7 strikeout
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: per nine, also good. He was better last year, but
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: it was a small sample size. Burns has been good
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee as well. They have 26 at-bats against them.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: Not a huge sample, but everybody in the lineup pretty
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: much has seen him before. 192 average, 646 OPS, 7-4
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's not that good. But everything else,
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: to me, looks good to back Burns. But it's not
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: only Burns on one side. I think Cincinnati can actually
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: get us some runs here, and they did yesterday. But
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: they're facing Robert Gasser from Milwaukee, who's not really that good.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: He does not throw gas. He's not really a velocity pitcher,
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: I don't believe. 4.43 ERA, 1.28 whip. He is good
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: at home, though. 3.83 home ERA, but he's not going
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: deep into his outings, either. He hasn't gone five innings
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: in his last couple outings, although, yes, Milwaukee's won his
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: last four outings. They've won eight of his last nine.
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: I get that, and we're going to fade him here,
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man. His strikeout walk ratio is
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: not really that good recently. He is striking out some guys,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate's not very good. His strikeout rate
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: on the season isn't really that impressive, and his hit
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: rate is okay. His walk rate is Okay. It's a
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: lot of mediocrity here. Three strikeout walk ratio, 8.6 Ks
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: per nine. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he does have some velocity,
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: but I just like to make that joke. But the
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: one thing that we do know is the Reds have
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: hit this guy. They have 24 at bats against him.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: They have a 333 average, 926 OPS against him. Five
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: to two strikeout walk ratio. So the matchup numbers definitely
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: support Burns here. We already know he's the better pitcher,
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: but the matchup numbers, not huge samples on either side,
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: but they do support burns being able to out pitch
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: gasser here so let's do it uh the money seemed
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: like it was agreeing with me on this as well
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: hopefully i'm not picking the wrong games here man uh
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: let me see we got uh we're uh where's the
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: nl here it is uh 70 of the tickets are
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: on milwaukee but 82 of the cash on cincinnati so
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: it looks like a pros versus joes type of market
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: here with the money in support of cincinnati that's full
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: game though. And some of it is that the price
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: is crazy. Milwaukee is like minus 200. Gasser against Burns.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think Milwaukee deserves to be that heavily priced.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: Although I think the odds makers are factoring in that
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: Burns might not pitch deep into this game. You know
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: what I mean? They might limit him and take him out.
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm going to limit it to the first five.
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: We should get Burns for at least three innings here.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: You would hope. And Hopefully that's enough to get us
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: through this, man. Maybe it's a little risky, but the
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: market re-likes it. I say we do it, and maybe
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: I should call up their manager and be like, come on, man.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: We'll see. As far as the total, it's a public over.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: The total's at eight, seven and a half, so the
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: market read is kind of saying this should be an
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: under here. I kind of agree with that. It seems
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: more like an under to an over, especially after the
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: last two games were so high scoring, but Maybe a
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: first five under because I really hate the Reds bullpen. So, yeah,
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: something like that maybe. But obviously, the side is the
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: way I'm going with that. All right. Let's see. Is
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: the market read still agreeing with my other play here? Yeah,
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: it definitely is with the ticket versus cash percentage flip
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: there with both those games. Cleveland and Minnesota, big divisional series.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: These teams have split the series so far. Minnesota won yesterday.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is in positioning right now. I believe they're still
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: in the top wildcard spot, if I'm not mistaken, or
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: the bottom wildcard spot, excuse me, in the AL. Minnesota's
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: still not out of it yet, although they need to
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: get some wins here. So Minnesota may be the more
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: motivated team here, but both teams probably need to show
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: up and keep winning, you know what I mean? So
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: I think both teams are going to be motivated here.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: I had said yesterday this looks like it could be
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: a possible underseason, based on the starting pitching. Cleveland used
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: three relief pitchers yesterday. Minnesota used four. I do not
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: like Minnesota's bullpen at all, though. They're number 27, so
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: I think whatever you do, probably you've got to avoid them.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: Cleveland number 12. Cleveland definitely the better bullpen. Minnesota is
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: the better offense. They're number 10. Cleveland is number 29.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: Really not good. Cleveland's going with Tanner Bybee in this one.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: He's been decent, although he's been a little bit worse recently,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: I think. 4.22 ERA, 1.2 WIP. Not great, but I
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: think his numbers have gotten a little bit worse over
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: the last couple of starts. He's a little bit worse
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: on the road. 4.36 road ERA. Is that what that was?
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: I think so, yeah. Last two starts have been bad, though,
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: so he's in bad form. It was against offenses he
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: should have done better against, I think. Toronto and Baltimore,
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: not elite offenses there. Bybee, not even making it five
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: innings in either of them, and giving up 10 runs
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: in eight and a third innings. That's not good, and
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: he had more walks than strikeouts, so I do worry
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: about Bybee right now. His current form is not good.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: He does have a low hit rate on the season.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is okay, given the amount of innings
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: that he's pitched. His strikeout rate's also low, though. 2.6
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio's not really that good. It's the worst
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: that he's ever posted. His strikeout rate's down. It's his
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: worst strikeout per nine that he's posted. Seven. But.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: He is good against Minnesota. They have 85 at-bats against them.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: He's pretty much dominated them. 21-5 strikeout walk ratio, 176 average,
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: 458 OPS. If Bybee is going to bounce back, this
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: should be a good matchup for him to do that.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan is on the other side. He is one
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: of my most hated pitchers this year because every time
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: I back him, he fucking loses. It's like he knows.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: I think he watches this show, and I put the
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: pressure on him. Okay, Joe, I won't do that to
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: you in this game. I won't play this game. How
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: about that? Um, he's got a 3.6 ADRA 1.13 whip.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: He's been good. I accept when I back him, he's good.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: Otherwise he's got a 3.44 home era. So slightly better
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: at home, but not by much. We backed him last
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: time on the show, and he actually wasn't really that bad.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: One of the runs he gave up was unearned, and
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: they wound up losing the game to Detroit. But they
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: took him out after four innings. But I think he
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: was on a pitch count because he was coming back
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: from injury and had a month off. That's why I
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: believe I backed him in the first five because I
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: never backed Minnesota's bullpen. So I think I had Minnesota
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: first five in that one, and they couldn't get it done.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: There was an error there. Ryan was actually good enough
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: to make it happen, and it did not happen still.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: So I'm not happy about that. That was against Melton,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: who is meltdown when he faces Minnesota specifically. So I
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: thought that was a good handicap. Didn't happen. But anyway, Ryan,
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think we have to worry about
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: him that much, to be honest. Unless I back him,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about him, really. He's got
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: a pretty low hit rate. His walk rate's very low.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is high. I mean, he's a good pitcher, man. 5.2
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Very good. 10.1 strikeout per night is
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: also quite good. He's also good against Cleveland for the
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: most part. They have a lot of at-bats against them. 142,
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: and they only have a. 211 average. 676 OPS, 28-8
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So I had said I think this
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: is an under. I still do. I mean, I think
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: both pitchers have the edge here in this matchup. The
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: money is backing the over, though. 75% of tickets, 91%
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over. The total's around eight,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: but of course, I'm going to say go under in
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: the first five in this one, but I actually worry
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: more about Bybee than Ryan here. Bybee's current form is
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: not good. We've got to see if Minnesota decides to
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: extend Ryan more to a full starter's workload again this time, though,
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: which they might. I mean, he's a veteran. He's used
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: to it, whatever. But yeah, I think first five under
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: makes the most sense here just to avoid Minnesota's bullpen.
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: You might be able to find a four on that one.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: The money seems to not agree. There are some concerns
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: about it. Money is also coming in on Cleveland, though,
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: so Bybee's bad form is not dissuading the professional money
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: from coming in on Cleveland here. 62% of tickets, 90%
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Cleveland. So the money is back
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: in Cleveland. I think the thought is, well, Bybee might
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: be able to kind of duel Ryan in the early
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: part of this game, and then you get the better
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: bullpen with Cleveland. So maybe that's the thought there, like,
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: let's grab them as the underdog for that reason. You
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: will always pay a little bit of a price, I think,
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: for Joe Ryan. Maybe the way that he's pitched recently,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: maybe not too much, though. I mean, it's like minus 130.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: Do with that info what you want. But the money's
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: saying Cleveland, for the most part, with this market read.
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: I'm saying first five under, I think, makes the most
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: sense to me in that one. Yeah, Texas. And they
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: didn't cover the one and a half, either. They only
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: won by one, so you only won that one if
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: you played the money line on them. The best move
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: was to play the money line on them when they
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: were down 20, live betting, but I'm not really a
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: live betting guy. I set it and forget it. I
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: can't even stomach watching the games a lot of times.
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: I watched a few of the games yesterday, or parts
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: of them, but I had to get to the concert anyway,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: but I watched a few of the parts of some
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: of the earlier games, including the oregon oklahoma state upset
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: which i i got correct on the show but i
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: didn't give it out as a play uh wish i
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: did i had a few issues with it but yeah
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: um it seemed like a good spot to play oklahoma
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: state and the bounce back and oregon coming off a
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: big win i was rush my favorite band man um
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: they got a new drummer but yeah they're still around
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: it was it was Pretty emotional. They had multiple different
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: tributes to Neil during the show with some video with Neil,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: and they dedicated multiple songs to him, told some stories
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: about him. It's crazy, man. Rush, Alex, and Getty are
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: in their 70s, and they're still like, whatever, we're going
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: to play for three hours here. Yeah, they played for
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: three hours. Even if you discount the 20-minute intermission between
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: the two sets... They still played for like really close
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: to three hours. It's insane. Yeah, fun stuff. And they
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: do a lot with some of the videos. And they
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: have some guest celebrities in some of the videos that
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: did the videos just for this. And they make some
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: crazy videos where they put themselves in them and stuff.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: They do a lot. Definitely a fun time. And their
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: new drummer, that chick is good, man. Annika. You know,
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: nobody's going to be Neil, but She puts her own
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: spin on things. She's really, really good. And the only
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: complaint that I would have is that Getty doesn't really
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: have the upper part of his range anymore because he's
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: like fucking 73 and he's a ridiculously high-pitched vocalist. But
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: his vocals are still not bad given that. He's still
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: going out there and doing it. It's just he changes
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: some of his parts to not have to do some
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: of the highest notes and whatever anymore and whatever.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: But still.
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and you could tell, like, I think towards kind
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: of the end of, like, the first half, it seemed
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: like he might be losing his voice a little bit there,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: but yeah. He's also still crushing it on bass and whatever,
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: and Alex is still killing it on guitar, so there
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: you go. All right. Next up, let me see. White
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Sox and St. Louis, I think, is next. Is that right?
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: I have two more plays that I haven't gotten. I
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: think I have two more, right? What have I given out? Oh, no,
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: I have one more. I have one more, I think.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: I get confused all the time. This has been a
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: split series so far. The White Sox were able to
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: get the win yesterday. I didn't really think they would actually,
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: but the White Sox, they got more motivation here at
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: least because they're trying to hang on to their very
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: slim lead in the AL Central here. They could get
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: a wild card as well, but the White Sox need
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: to keep winning, man. St. Louis is just playing out
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: the stretch here. How much do they really care about
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: spoiling the season for an American League team? I don't know. St.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: Louis is more inclined to play against the Chicago team
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: that's in their division, you know what I mean? This game,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: it looks like the White Sox do have the better
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: pitcher in this game. It's a little bit questionable, although
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: actually I think they announced that maybe they're changing their starter.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: Hold on, let me see. Yeah, White Sox are actually
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: undecided right now, so I don't know if it is
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: actually going to be Burke or not here. The White
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: Sox used a bunch of relief pitchers yesterday. They used five,
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: maybe not good.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: St.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: Louis, I don't like their bullpen, and they also used five.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: So the White Sox should have a bullpen edge here
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: just because they're the better bullpen. Number 15, St. Louis
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: number 23. I'd probably avoid both bullpens in this one, though.
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: The White Sox are the better offense. They're number 11, St.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: Louis number 26. So the White Sox are the better team.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: That's why they're going to be favored here. Burke, I
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: don't know if I want to go into great detail
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: with him because I don't know if he's pitching. He's
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: been good on the season, 3.58 ERA, 1.2 whip. He's
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: also good on the road, 2.78 road ERA. Problem is
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: his last start was absolutely horrible at home against Pittsburgh.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: He got destroyed in that game. And he hasn't been
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: pitching that well recently. Like two of his last, three
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: of his last five starts have been kind of questionable.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: So I think Burke is a little bit out of
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: form right now, man. And It could be just the
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: innings count. You know what I mean? Like this is
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: more innings than he threw last year. He had kind
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: of a breakout season this year, but he seems to
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: be kind of getting tired as the season finishes. So
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: might not be a good sign for the White Sox
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs either. And in fact, if they make
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, I'm most likely going to be fading them
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: because they're inexperienced and they have kind of taken too
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: much of a step up this year. Burke does have
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate, though. His walk rate is okay.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is pretty high. That stuff is all right.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, three strikeout walk ratio. His walks are kind
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: of a concern, though. 9.8 strikeout per nine. But Burke's
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: current form really does worry me. Although he's good against St.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, I said I wouldn't go into detail, but
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: I did. 214 average allowed, 527 OPS allowed. Only 14 at-bats, though.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: Seven of their hitters have faced him. 6-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: So if Burke is going to bounce back, it could
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: be a situation like this where he's facing a lineup
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: that hasn't had success against him and it's in a
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: pitcher-friendly ballpark. Michael McGreevy is on the other side for St.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: Louis and the advanced analytics guys still have their McGreevances
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: with him because the advanced analytics guys can't stand this
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: guy because his underlying metrics are not very good. He's
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: not a strikeout pitcher. He pitches to contact, but he
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: Continues to pitch fairly effectively, although he hasn't been as
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: good recently. 3.92 ERA, 1.25 whip on the season. A
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home, though, for whatever reason. 4.06
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: home ERA, even though it's a pitcher-friendly part, but he's
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: still not really pitching that badly. He's allowed three or
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in all but two starts since the
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: beginning of August, and his team has won most of
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: those games. So he's still not pitching that poorly, really.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: His hit rate isn't that good, though. I mean, it's
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: a little bit high. His walk rate is okay, but
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is also low, like I said. Advanced
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: analytics hate it. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio is not very good. 6.2
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is not that good either, but he
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: manages to not allow that many runs pretty consistently. And
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: he doesn't put that many guys on base, although that's
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: gotten a little bit worse recently. McGreevy is pretty good
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox, though. Only 15 at-bats, though. 200 average,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: 450 OPS, no extra base hits, four strikeouts, one walk.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: They have six guys who have faced him. What do
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: we do with this game, man? I think it depends
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: on what the White Sox do here. The money's coming
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: in on St. Louis, 54% of tickets, 63% of the
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: cash on them. I think it's because the White Sox
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: are kind of desperate and you're having to lay Moneyline
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: favorite price with them on the road at minus 130.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: So I think that's probably why the money's coming in
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: on the St. Louis side. I would say it really
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: depends on if Burke is pitching or not. I think
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: if Burke is pitching, he might actually be in a
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: decent bounce-back matchup here. So I think if it's Burke
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: and McGreevy, you might have an argument for the first
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: five under here. The full game total is 8.5. The
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: money is coming in on the over, though. It's kind
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: of a public over as well. If it's not Burke...
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: then I think you probably do say that maybe you
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: do lean to St. Louis, maybe just in the first five,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: because I really don't like their bullpen. So, yeah, that's
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: what I would say. If it's going to be Burke,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: I think maybe the under first five makes the most sense.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: If it's not Burke, then... I don't know who Chicago
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: would have that would be an improvement on that really.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: So even though Burke's been in bad form recently, I
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: would say if it's anybody else, then maybe it would
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: be a St. Louis first five play. All right, I'll
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: be right back. Then I'll talk about the remaining five
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: games here. I do have some opinions. One of these
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: almost made my card and the other did. You might
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: not guess which those are, but I'll be right back. Yep.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday. 1-5. I don't even know
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: day at all, 0-4, that is Have not had a
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: good season, man, with Wiccans.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Slump.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man? I
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after...
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: The worst day that I could possibly have. Back with you,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: as I always am. Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: And yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: 0-5.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: i don't even know what i should do at this
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all all right let's
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: finish this off here the next game is pittsburgh and
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: the cubs cubs are on the verge of a sweep
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: here so that would have me leaning pittsburgh to try
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: to avoid the sweep here at least do something against
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: the cubs here i mean the cubs are pretty much
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: settled into one of the wild card spots. Although I
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: think they do want to make sure they have the
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: upper hand over Philly. I don't even know which one
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: of the teams is ahead of the other right now. Um,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: the Cubs might have a potential look ahead here because
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: they are playing. I already mentioned it. Who are they playing? Um, Atlanta.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: So they might be looking ahead to that. So it's
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: not the greatest spot for the Cubs. I think the
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: spot does favor the pirates in this one. The question is,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: can you actually back Bubba Chandler here? I'm not so sure. Um,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: The Cubs, bullpen-wise, they have the better bullpen. They used
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: three guys yesterday. Pittsburgh used one, so Pittsburgh's bullpen is
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit rested after yesterday. I think the Cubs
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: do have the upper hand there, though. The Cubs are
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: number 14 in bullpen. Pittsburgh, number 19, although Pittsburgh isn't
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: really that much worse. Cubs are the number one offense.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is number seven. Pittsburgh has been not so good
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: offensively recently, and There might not be a lot of
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: offense in this game because this is a low total,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: especially given what this pitching matchup is. You know what
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: that means? It means wind is blowing in in Wrigley.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: The wind has a huge effect in this stadium, and
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: the total alone... can tell you what's going on with
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: the wind. And this one is telling me the wind's
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: blowing in because there's no way. This total is a
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: total of six and a half. You only get a
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: total like that when it's an elite pitching matchup, and
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: this is not that. So that means the wind is
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: blowing in in Wrigley. Bubba Chandler's pitching for Pittsburgh. He's
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: got some talent, but he's had some walk issues and
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: stuff like that. 4.25 ERA, 1.34 whip, not great. 4.23
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He's a little bit better on the road.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: He's been better recently, though. Had a lot of strikeouts
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: last time out against the White Sox on the road.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: held them to tour and run, so he's pitching again
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: in the city of Chicago after that. He's been decent,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: at least, over his last three starts, although the walks
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: continue to kind of be an issue, except for the
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: most recent start. He's hard to hit. He's got a
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: low hit rate. His strikeout rate isn't as high as
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: I would have thought, though. I thought he was a
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher based on what he did last year, but
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: not really so, at least not this year, and his
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: walk rate is still too high. He's got a 1.8
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: strike-up walk ratio, which is really bad. A lot worse than...
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: He looked really good last year. It was like, oh,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: this guy's definitely going to be really good for them,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: but it hasn't really panned out that way totally. But
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: it still could. He's only 23, so there is definitely
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: some upside with him here. He's got an 8.2 strike-up
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: per nine, which is decent. Chandler against the Cubs he's
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: been good against them in 36 at bats 222 average
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: 578 OPS 9 to 4 strikeout walk ratio is not
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: really good but everything else about this looks pretty good
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: here So Chandler may have a good matchup here. He's
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: in a little bit better form now than he has been.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: Matthew Boyd is on the other side for the Cubs.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: He's okay. 4.03 ERA, 1.22 whip. He's not good at
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: home though. 5.4 home ERA. So the home road splits.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: Definitely favor Chandler here. Boyd's been in pretty good form though.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: Over his last three starts, he's been alright. Not really
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: walking as many guys. Decent strikeout right here, although the
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: Cubs lost all of them. But it wasn't really his fault.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: He didn't allow many runs in any of them. Three
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: or fewer in all of them. So he's not pitching
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: that badly right now. His hit rate is just okay.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is Fine. His strikeout rate's a little
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: bit low, though. He's got a 2.6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: Not excellent. 7.1K per nine. Nothing really special there, but
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: Boyd's been all right since he's been with the Cubs,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: and he is okay against Pittsburgh. They've hit him for
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: some contact, but not really for power. They have 62
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him, 14 strikeouts, four walks, 274 average. That's
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit high, but a 657 OPS is not
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: that bad. So I do lean Pittsburgh here. I think
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: Chandler actually does have the upper hand, plus given the situation.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: I would look at Pittsburgh in the first five here,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: and you're going to get them as an underdog. The
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: Cubs are like minus 150-something here. Money coming in on Pittsburgh,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: I agree with that. 84% of tickets on the Cubs,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: 86% of the cash on Pittsburgh. I don't know. How
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: close is this to a play for me? I don't know.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: It's a... It's not too far off from being a
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: play for me. I like this one a decent amount
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: because I think you're getting potentially the better starter here
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: plus the better situation. So starter with better upside, at least,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: and better matchup numbers. Yeah. Dude, I don't want to
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: add too many plays here today, but yeah, I mean...
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to do it, but I do kind
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: of like it. The total, like I said, is six
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: and a half. You might be able to find a
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: seven on this. I do lean under in this one.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: I think you could go full game with that because
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are not so bad that we need to
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: just be like, yeah, we got to exclude these things.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: Plus they're pretty rested. So if you find a seven,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: a full game under, I think is in consideration in
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: this game as well. but I think Pittsburgh first five
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: is the best way to play this game. And the
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: money definitely agreeing with that with 84% of tickets on
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, 86% of the cash on Pittsburgh. All right,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: next game. This one almost made the cut for me,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: Kansas city and the Red Sox here. I wanted to
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: try to find a way to play the under in
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: this one. Now the Red Sox did win yesterday. They
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: ended a three game losing streak against Anaheim and against
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: the Royals. You gotta be kidding me, man. Um, Maybe
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox will continue that momentum here as the
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: Red Sox do have one of their better starters pitching
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: in this one. Kansas City has one of their better
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: starters pitching today too, though, which is why I was
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: thinking some sort of an under makes sense in this game.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is three relief pitchers. I do not want
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: to deal with Kansas City's bullpen, though. They were awful yesterday.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: Dobnak pitched well again yesterday for Kansas City. I don't
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: believe what he's doing, man. That game was like a
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: 1-1 game, and then the Red Sox won because Kansas
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: City's bullpen was terrible. That was the difference in yesterday's game. Yeah,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what to tell you, but yeah,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's bullpen is pretty much unbackable. Red Sox used
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: two relief pitchers yesterday. They did use Chapman because they
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: hadn't used him in a while, so they got him
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: some usage, even though they had a four-run lead there.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the Red Sox are obviously the better bullpen.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: They're ranked number one right now in whip and ERA,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: close with the Yankees. Kansas City, not even close. Kansas City,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: dead last. Well, actually, again, they're actually the second worst.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: The A's have the same whip and a worse ERA,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: but I've always been saying the A's are worse than them.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: So Kansas City, maybe the second worst bullpen. But, yes,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: a huge bullpen disparity here. The Red Sox are also
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: number nine offensively. Kansas City, number 17. So the Red
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: Sox should have the upper hand there, too. Noah Cameron
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: getting the start for Kansas City, though. He's pretty good.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: He turned his season around this year, too, and he
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: was good last year, too. 3.93 ERA, 1.2 whip. Not bad.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: He's also better on the road. Kansas City moving their
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: walls in. Seems like it's hurt him at home, but
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: on the road, he's got a 3.31 ERA, so he's
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: been good there. Pitched well at home last time out
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: against Arizona. He's got good strikeout stuff recently. Gotten his
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: walk rate down a little bit. His strikeout rate's gone up.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: He's pitching pretty well. Recently, he's in much better form
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: right now. He's allowed more than two earned runs, actually
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: only once, going back into sort of early August. He's
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: got a reasonably low hit rate here. His walk rate's
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: not too bad. His strikeout rate is somewhat okay. 2.8
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. I mean, nothing mind-blowing, but he is
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: pretty good. 8.1 strikeout per nine. And the Red Sox
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: only have four hitters who have faced him, but they're
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: 0 for 10 off him with four strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: So he's had the upper hand against the Red Sox
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: hitters that have faced him. He is also a lefty,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: so we'll see what the Red Sox wind up doing there. Contreras,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: I think, is still out for the Red Sox, their
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: best right-handed bat. Payton Tolley, so it's lefty versus lefty here.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: He's going for the Red Sox. Good season from him, 3.15 ERA, 1.08 whip.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: One thing you might have to worry about with him
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: is the innings count, although he's not really up at
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: that point. A number yet where I really start to worry.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: He's at 137, but he had 12 strikeouts in his
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: last outing against Baltimore. Very good outing from him in
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: that one. So he's still striking guys out and pitching
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: pretty well right now. He's good. Yeah, I mean, I
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: think he's a super talent here. He's got a low
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: hit rate, pretty low walk rate here as well, and
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. These numbers are all good. 4.3 strikeout
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, very good. 10.4 strikeout per nine. quite good
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: as well. And Kansas city's never faced him before. So
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: I think totally should do well here as well. Um,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: you know, he has the unfamiliarity edge as well against, uh,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: Kansas city who have based on a lot of metrics
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: have the worst road offense in all of baseball. So yeah,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: to me, this, this seems like it's an under to
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: me and I wanted to find a way to do it.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree 57% of tickets, 63% of
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under here, seven and a half
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: is the total for the full game. First five, you
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: can only get a three and a half, though, and
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm quite willing to do that. Like,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: that always just... At this point, it just terrifies me, man.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: It felt like I was going to have a ton
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: of plays today, so I'm actually trying to limit myself
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: and be more selective and narrow it down for the
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: day here. So, yeah, I mean... If you go under
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: full game, I think you really have to. Kansas City's
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: bullpen is a concern, man. So I think if you're
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: going to play this game, I think you have to
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: do a first five under, and you've got to take
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: it under three and a half. I think that would
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: be the way to play this. The money is also
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: backing the Royals. The Red Sox are at minus 180-something,
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: 93% of tickets on them, 56% of the cash coming
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: in on the Royals. I think if you're going to
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: back the Royals, you should do it in the first five, though,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: because if this is a close game, The Royals don't
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: have the bullpen advantage, although, of course, the Red Sox
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: have been losing these games anyway recently where they have
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen, but we will see. But, yeah, I
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: think Kansas City first five maybe makes some sense because
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: you get them as a pretty big underdog, and it
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: could be a pitching duel through that first five there.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: So those are my thoughts on that game. Next game
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: is my last play. I don't know if people guessed that,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: and they still probably don't even know what I'm talking about.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: This is Seattle and the A's. We're going to take
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: this game over the 9.5. I found it at Even Money,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: although I could not find a 9, so I think
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: you have to do the 9.5 here. I'd rather do 9,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: but it's at the A's stadium, and there are a
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: lot of 10s out there too, so I think 9.5
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: or 10, I guess, might be the best way you
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: can play it. It might be the best number you
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: can play this at. But remember, it's the A's stadium.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: It's a very hitter-friendly stadium. The A's have been playing
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: some overt games here, although yesterday it was All Seattle
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: that did that. But both games in the series have
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: gone over this total. But yesterday, Seattle put up 19 runs.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: And I told you, I thought Seattle was going to
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: win that game. But man, did they win that game.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: Gage Jump, I think, probably was terrible in that game.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: And Woo looks like he's back, baby. Anyway, I still
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: think this is an over, though. The Mariners are going
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: to be in desperation mode still because they're trying to
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs. They finally got a win yesterday. So
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: the Mariners... maybe the right side in this game, but
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: you're going to be laying a price for them on
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: the road and the public is probably going to be
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: taking them here. So I don't love that, but I'm
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: not even going to focus on that. I'm focusing on
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: the fact that I don't really like any of the
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: pitching in this game. Uh, Seattle used three relief pitchers.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: I don't really like their bullpen this year. You know,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: I hate the A's bullpen. They used three guys yesterday.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: This is a trash bullpen. The A's are the worst
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: in baseball. And, uh, Seattle has not been much better.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: Seattle's number 20 in the bullpen. Yeah, I know Seattle's
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: offense hasn't been good, but they broke out for 19
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: runs yesterday. They've been a bit better recently at least,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: so they're number 28 still, but they might be able
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: to do some damage against this A's pitching in this stadium,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: and they have already in the series. The A's number
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: 14 in offense tied with the Braves. The A's are
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: capable enough on offense, and we're going to fade both
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: starters here as well. Bryce Miller pitching for Seattle. I
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: know he's not bad, 4.22 ERA, 1.14 whip, but you
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: know he's not as good on the road as most
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: Seattle pitchers tend not to be. He's got a 4.69
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: road ERA with a way higher road upon a batting average,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: so he's significantly worse on the road, and he's not
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: in good form right now. He's failing to make it
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: five innings in like all of these outings. He was
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: Absolutely terrible in the month of August. And his starts
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: in Seattle in September haven't been that much better. Failing
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: to go five innings in either of them. Not good
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: stuff here, man. His team won the game against the
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. But other than that, Seattle's lost every single
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: one of his starts going back into early July, which
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: is ridiculous. And look at the games he's been involved in.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: We had.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: run totals of 15, 11, 21, 22, 15, and 11
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: in his starts going back through the beginning of August.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: So every game this guy's pitching in is going way
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: over the total pretty much. So we're going to be
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: focusing on that too. Now, yes, he did pitch in
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: the A's stadium in May, and he did do well
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: in that start, but all that being said, I still
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: don't really like his current form. His hit rate is
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: pretty good on the season. He doesn't really walk that
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: many guys. His strikeout rate is fine as well, so
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: his numbers overall are pretty good, but he is also
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: a fly ball pitcher. He allows a decent amount of
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: home runs here. His split He also is a little
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: bit more home run heavy on the road, which is
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: not surprising because he's not Logan Gilbert. But Miller overall
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: is not good against the A's, even though he pitched
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: well against them here earlier in the season. I don't
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: know if he's going to be able to repeat that,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: especially given his bad current form. He's got 44 at-bats
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: against the A's. They have a 318 average and 953
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: OPS against them, 8-3 strikeout walk ratio. So I do
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: not think he's going to pitch that well here. And
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: I think we could fade Jacob Lopez on the other side, too,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: for the A's. 4.78 ERA, 1.45 whip, not good. He's
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: worse at home, at least ERA-wise, 5.2. His home run
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: rate's a little bit worse at home as well. Not
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: by much, though, but... His opponent batting average is actually
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: better at home, but whatever. I mean, he's not a
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: very good pitcher, I don't think. He looks like he's
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: starting to lose form again. After he had a pretty
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: good run through August, and then he had a good
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: start against Texas in September, but he seems to be
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: falling off again. He had a fairly bad start against
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: Toronto last time out, although they won the game, but
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: he only had one strikeout in six innings. He allowed
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: a couple of homers. four runs here in this stadium. Toronto,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: not a good offense, so that might not be a
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: good sign. He might be kind of re-entering poor form here.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: He's a very streaky pitcher, so if you can catch
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: him when he's about to go out of form, you
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: can fade him if you can do that. His hit
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: rate is not great. His walk rate is not really great.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is okay, but he's also not a
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: hard thrower. He gets strikeouts by throwing these weird, like,
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: breaking pitches. He has a curveball that has an insane
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: drop on it, and that's how he does what he does.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: But he's got a two-strikeout walk ratio, which is not good. 8.4
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is okay. Numbers against Seattle, though, are
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: not okay. In 31 at-bats,. 355 average,. 1122 OPS, although
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: Cal Raleigh, who may be starting to finally hit after
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: a terrible season, he's four for five with all three
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: home runs they have against Lopez. But even so, Lopez
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: has been bad against them as a whole, though. Six strikeouts,
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: five walks here, too. So, yeah, both pitchers, bad matchup numbers.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: They're both in the bad home road split here. It
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: looks like they're both in bad form currently. The money
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: is definitely agreeing with this. We have another ticket versus
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: cash split here. So the market read seems to like
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: all of these plays here. 55% of tickets on the under,
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: 90% of the cash on the over. We're doing it.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: It's mostly over 9.5s here, but there's no real difference
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: between 9.5 and 10. So I would say either one
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: is fine enough in that one.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: Nine and a half preferable, though. Every half run preferable,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: unless you're having to pay more juice for it. Texas
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: at Arizona. These teams have split the series so far.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: Both these teams need to keep winning, man, because they're
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: both fighting to get into the playoffs here. So they
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: both got to keep winning. It's been not really a
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: competitive series necessarily, but each team has won a game
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: by a decent amount of runs here. Texas, they used
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: three relief pitchers yesterday. Arizona... used three as well, but
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: only one of them for any extended amount of time.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: So Arizona's bullpen is pretty clean coming into this one.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: Arizona's number six in bullpen, and I would say they're
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: at least a decent bullpen. I think they're the better
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: of the two. Texas, I never thought I'd be saying
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: that coming into the season. Arizona was supposed to have
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: a very bad bullpen this year. Texas was one of
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: the best last year, but that is not the case
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: this year. Texas, number 21 out of the bullpen. offensively,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: Texas No. 16, Arizona No. 22. Neither offense is that great.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: And looking at the starting pitching, you might think this
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: might be an under, and maybe it is, but Cal
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: Quantrill is the starter for Texas. I don't know how
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: he's doing what he's doing here. 2.86 ERA, 1.06 whip.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: He's pitching way better than we thought he would, although
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: he is not as good on the road. He pitches
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: better in Texas' pitcher-friendly stadium. Arizona's more hitter-friendly. 3.61 road ERA.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: So Quantrill may struggle in this one. He's pitched well, though.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: There's no doubt about it. He's allowed three or fewer
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: earned runs in every out and going all the way
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: back into late July. And since he's become like a
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: full-time starter, he's been way better than we expected him
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: to be. He's got a low hit rate on the season.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: This includes when he was a relief pitcher. Low walk rate,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't strike anybody out either. So the advanced
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: analytics guys will... tell you he's not that good, although
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio isn't even that bad, 3.1, because
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: he really doesn't walk anybody. He's got a 6.8K per nine, though,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: so he doesn't really fool hitters, so he does rely
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: on contact, but for whatever reason, it's working for him. However,
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: it may not work here, because Arizona's got good numbers
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: against him, and he's not that good on the road.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: They have 63 at-bats against him, a 270 average, 837 OPS,
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: 8-4 strikeout walk ratio, so Quantrill may finally have a
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: start that's not so good in this one Arizona's going
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: with another guy the advanced analytics guys can't figure out
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: Erod is pitching for them Eduardo Rodriguez he's had a
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: very good season really good win-loss record which that doesn't
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: mean everything that means you're getting a lot of run
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: support but 2.55 ERA 1.2 whip not bad better than
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: what we thought he would be able to do man
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: and he's another guy that pitches to contact at this
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: point and He's continuing to pitch well, though. He's slightly
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: worse at home ERA-wise, 2.62, but his opponent batting average
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: is actually lower at home. He's allowed three or fewer
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: earned runs in every start since the first start that
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: he had in August. He's in good form right now.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio is good throughout August. It's not so
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: good in September, but he hasn't really fully lost his form,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't say. His last start was pretty good against Houston.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: He's got a pretty low hit rate here. His walk
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: rate's a little bit of a concern, though, and his
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is really low, so his strikeout walk ratio
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: is not very good at 2.2. 6.7 Ks per nine
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: is also the lowest he's ever posted, so his stuff
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: is definitely diminished here, but he's good against Texas typically.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: They got 50 at-bats against him, 200 average, 599 OPS, 12.4
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So I think given what the matchup
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: looks like here, I'm going to lean Arizona in this one.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: The money seems like it agrees, although they are also public.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: 80% of the tickets, 87% of the cash on them.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: Minus 130 is about the price here. It did drop
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: from minus 140-something. You could probably make the argument for
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: the under in this one. The total is at 8.5.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you need to avoid Texas' bullpen
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: if you go under. First five under maybe too, but
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: the pitching might be good enough based on how these
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: pitchers are currently pitching. The pitching might win the day
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: in this game, but I think Arizona's the better way
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: to play this, given what the matchup looks like. So
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: that's the way I would lean in that one. Plus,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: I think their bullpen sets up better in that game
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: and is the better of the two. Last game, the
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: Sunday night game, is San Diego-San Francisco on Peacock. San
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: Francisco's been competitive in this series, but they lost both
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: games anyway. We lost the play in the first five
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: with them yesterday. They could not come within the half run,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: even though they were tied today. in like the third inning,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: but they could not pull it off. They gave up
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: a bunch of runs after that. Not good. Perdomo let
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: me down yesterday in that one, but maybe I shouldn't
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: have backed him because we didn't know enough about him.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: I was kind of right about King not doing that well, though.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: King gave up three runs, I think, in the first
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: five innings, so whatever. But now we have San Francisco
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: at home in prime time trying to avoid a sweep.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: In a divisional series where San Francisco might get up
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: for this game, man, to try to avoid the sweep.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: When you're at home on prime time, you usually get
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: up for a game like that. They have a chance
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: to maybe play spoiler against San Diego still here, man,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: if San Francisco can get one of these games here.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: So I think the motivation does favor San Francisco in
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: this one. San Diego's also not a good road team,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: so they are fadable on the road here. Who does
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: San Diego play next? They only play Colorado. That's not
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: really that big of a deal. So not really a
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: look ahead for them. San Diego's the better bullpen. They
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: used three guys out of the bullpen, but they used
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: Miller a second day in a row to finish that
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: game off. San Francisco used four guys yesterday. San Diego
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: is still the better bullpen, even though they used some
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: of their better arms the last couple days. San Diego
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: number five in bullpen, but that's why they're there. San
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: Francisco number 24 in bullpen, so I'll still give the
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge to San Diego. San Francisco's number 18 in hitting,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: although they're not good at home, and I don't think
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: they're as good as that ranking would suggest San San
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: Diego is, where are they? Number 23, tied with the Mets,
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: so it hasn't been great for them offensively this year,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: but they've been better in the second half. Nick Pavetta
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: is pitching for San Diego. He's making his second start
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: back from injury. He pitched early in the season, missed
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: the majority of the season, came back, and that's probably
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: going to wind up being a good thing for San Diego,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: because he is definitely one of their better pitchers. Maybe
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox should have kept him in, although I
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: had my grievances with him when he was on the
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, but The Red Sox could use him, man.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: I'd much rather have him than fucking Patrick Sands. and
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: Brian Bayo, who I think are pitching in the next
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: two games. Pavetta's got a 3.43 ERA,. 95 whip. He's
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse on the road, 3.6 road ERA,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: but this is a pitcher-friendly park here. He pitched against
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: Washington at home in his return after the long injury,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: and he was good. He went five shutout innings. He
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: was extremely efficient, only threw 63 pitches, so they didn't
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: have to overwork him in his first start, and he
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: got them there, and he actually got the win in
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: the game, too, even though it was a close game.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: I think Pavetta is back, man. I mean, I know
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: he's back, but he is ready, I think, to take
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: on pretty much the full starter's workload again here. And
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: he's been decent against San Francisco, although he's allowed some
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: power to them. They have 37 at-bats against them, 11 strikeouts,
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: 3 walks, 243 average, 786 OPS is a little high,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: but it's all Jungho Lee doing all the damage, though.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: He's 6 for 13 with a home run. a triple
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: and three doubles off him. So if you want player props,
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: Lee smokes Nick Pavetta, but everybody else in this lineup
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: doesn't do a whole lot. So I still think Pavetta
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: should pitch well here. I look at his overall numbers,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: not much to look at with a small sample, but
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: he's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate. So that all looks good. Good strikeout walk
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: ratio in line with what he's had throughout his career.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: Good strikeout per nine as well so far. So that's
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: what we're getting here. I think Pavetta should probably pitch
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: well here. I think Logan Webb probably should as well.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: He's pitching for San Francisco. He's had a pretty good season,
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: even though he's had his ups and downs. 4.1 ERA, 1.15 whip.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: He's always better at home, it seems, and that's been
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: the case this year too. 3.26 home ERA. He bounced
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: back nicely. He had a bad start against Pittsburgh in
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh a couple starts ago. Bounced back really nice last
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: time at home against St. Louis with a really good start.
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: His last two road starts were bad, but all of
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: his home starts recently have been good. I would say
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: he's still in pretty good form and all of his
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: recent home starts being good is a good sign for
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: him pitching well here on this one. He's got a
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: low enough hit rate here. Doesn't really walk many guys.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: Doesn't strike a ton of guys out either, but he
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: has a 3.2 strikeout walk ratio, which isn't that bad.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: Does not put a lot of guys on base. 7.3
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine isn't great, but He kind of, that's
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: just the way that he is. He kind of pitches
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: to contact a little bit. He is a ground ball pitcher,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: very much so. So he gets out of jams with that.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: Although San Diego's been able to hit him a little
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: bit in 193 at-bats. They do have a high average
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: against him, 280. But they haven't hit him for a
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: ton of power, 737 OPS. That's interesting. So the OPS
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: allowed is higher from Pavetta here, although it's a really
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: small sample. The batting average allowed is higher for Logan Webb.
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: But Webb also has a 44-9 average. strikeout walk ratio
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: against San Diego, so that's a good number. But some
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: of these guys in their lineup do some damage here.
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: Jackson Merrill absolutely kills him, and Machado and Cronenworth are
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: both pretty good against him as well in pretty big
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: sample sizes, so do what you want with that info.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: I still think this game seems like an under to me, though.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on the over, but I don't
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: think I really agree. 64% of tickets, 84% of the
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. The total is 7.5%. It's low
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: for a reason. It's a pitcher-friendly park. We're not dealing
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: with elite offenses here, and I think the pitching has
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: the upper hand over the hitting here. The one thing
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: you do have to worry about, I think, is really
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: the San Francisco bullpen. And I know the matchup numbers
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: aren't great, so I really don't want to play this,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: but I would lean under in this one. And the
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: money is coming in on San Diego for what that's worth,
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: which kind of surprises me, actually. They're at minus 130
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: or so, but everybody knows San Diego's got to keep winning,
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: so the pressure's on them, and you're going to have
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: to pay a little bit more for San Diego because
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: of that. You know what I mean? You're getting Webb
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: as a home underdog, dude. You rarely get Webb as
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: a home underdog, so I think I like San Francisco
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: better in this game probably just in the first five
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: like yesterday because I don't really like their bullpen enough
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 2: but yeah I would say San Francisco first five given
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: they're trying to avoid the sweep they're at home in
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: prime time chance to play spoiler you're getting one of
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: the best prices you'll get on web at home so
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: I think that's the way that I would lean in
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: that one but I do think the under is also
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: the way to look at that game and that's it
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: man that's going to do it I'll talk about I'll
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: read I'll do NFL market read really briefly here and
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: then get out of here So my plays here are
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: over nine in Anaheim and Washington. This is the baseball slate. Whoops,
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: I flipped these two. We have Cincinnati first five plus
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: the half run, and Burns better at least get us
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: four innings here, man. I mean, come on, man. Don't
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: fuck us over here. And then Seattle in the A
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: is over nine and a half for my three actual plays.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: And I did like a few other ones, man. I
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: liked Houston-Tampa Bay under. I liked Red Sox and Royals
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: first five under. But it's your... You know, you're on
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: the razor's edge with the number there, I think. And
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: then I did kind of like Pittsburgh on the money line,
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: first five as well. So you can do what you
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: want with all that info. Hopefully those numbers don't do up.
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: Hopefully those ones don't do better than my actual plays.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: And then we have one football play for today. We're
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: already 1-0 in the NFL. Hopefully we can continue. We're
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: going to be on the Carolina Panthers plus three. I
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: think the Bears are just massively overhyped and due for
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: a ton of regression, as I was talking about earlier
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: in the show. I think they're due for some major
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: turnover differential regression here, and I think their defense is
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: pretty awful. And they're laying points on the road here,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: and the public is all over them. So, seems like
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: danger territory to me. We'll take Carolina in that one.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: You can go watch my NFL show from last night
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: if you want to. see the breakdown that I gave
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: for all those games. Let's look at the NFL real
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: quickly here and see what is the market read doing?
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: The market read is now kind of indicating on Jacksonville,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: which I kind of disagree with. So I got to
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: figure out what I want my picks to be here.
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: Market read is still slightly on Tampa, but I did
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: disagree with that. I think I'll continue to probably disagree
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: with that. Strong market read on Indy. And if I
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: was going to add any other NFL play today, it
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: was that one. I do like Indy plus the points there.
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: The market is slightly indicating towards Pittsburgh, but I think
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: It's an overreaction to the Atlanta quarterback situation, so I
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: would still continue to lean Atlanta plus the points in
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: that one. It looks like the market read is still
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: indicating on Houston, which I did agree with. The market
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: read is agreeing with me on the Carolina one, so
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: I do agree with that. DK looks like it's almost
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: at 3.5, so I would take at least the 3,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: but it's possible the 3.5 shows up there. The market
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: read is really hard to read still in Jets, Tennessee.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: My lean in this one was Jets. I think I
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: might still keep it that way. It's really difficult to
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: gauge the market in that one. The market read is
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: slightly indicating towards Detroit here, but they're a public side.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: I was kind of leaning, I don't know, man. I
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: didn't have a good opinion on this game before, and
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: I still kind of don't, but maybe I'm going to
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: slightly lean towards the dog in that one, depending on
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: what the numbers that you can get. The money is
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: indicating towards Arizona, plus the points here. Chargers very public
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: side they'll be a very popular survivor play I think
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: my survivor play will just still be Jacksonville looks like
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: the money is kind of coming in on them at
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: this point uh well it's a low total so it's
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: dangerous looking but I mean Cleveland's offense is expected to
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: be putrid which is why that's happening so um and
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: I know I made fun of Jacksonville's defense I think
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: their defense is a little bit of a concern but
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: their rushing defense is still pretty good and That's a
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: good matchup actually for Jacksonville. Um, if the rushing defense
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: is good, that's going to take away the best thing
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: that Cleveland has on offense, which is like Judkins and whatever.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: They can still run the football. And if Jacksonville is
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: going to force Cleveland to throw the football, good luck. Um,
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: Even though I think Deshaun Watson's better than Sanders and Gabriel,
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: it's still probably not going to be good. But anyway,
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: the money's indicating on Arizona plus the points. I do
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: pretty much agree with that. The market is slightly tilted
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: towards Vegas, but they're a very public side, and they
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: worry me, man. They're going to be a cute survivor
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: pick here because it's the only chance that you have
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: to use Vegas because you can only use each team once.
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: It takes real balls to do it, but I don't
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: even know if it's a ballsy play necessarily. It might
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: just be stupidity because this game just seems like such
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: a crapshoot, like two bad teams. Who the fuck knows?
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: The money is indicating on Philadelphia, and I do agree
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: with that one against a Washington team that I think
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: is a bit overhyped. The money is still agreeing with Minnesota,
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: which I did agree with as well. You know, it
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: just seems like Minnesota may just be a little bit
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: too underrated at this point here by the public. The
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: night game, the public is coming in on Dallas, of course.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: And in the night game, you get higher handles, so
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: you usually want to fade the public. Like I said yesterday,
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: home dogs and home division dogs have good track records
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: in week one. This is both. Home divisional underdogs do
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: really well, actually. They run like 70% in week one,
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: so I kind of think you do have to lean
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: to the Giants in that one. And then, as you know,
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: I gave out a play on Kansas City already for
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: the Monday night game, which I will continue to have
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: as a play for me, although it looks like the
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: market has now slightly shifted to the money coming in
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: on Denver, but I don't know. We'll see. I mean,
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: it looked like Denver was going to be a public dog.
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: I still think they might be. We'll have to see tomorrow. Like,
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a heavily public game, Bet game tomorrow.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: So we will see. That's going to do it, man.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: So learn to tote on Twitter. Learn to tote on Instagram. Like,
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel here. Get notified when I go live.
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: Leave good comments. Tell people about it. All that stuff.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: Listen on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Covered in you because
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: my ukulele channel on YouTube. So you can check that out. Patreon.com
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: slash learn to tote if you want to support me
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: that way. way. What else do we have going on?
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: Loser cast every Tuesday night and the Giants G-Spot podcast
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: will be starting at some point, but I don't believe
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: it will be tonight because it's Ben's birthday. So everybody
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: go say happy birthday to Ben, Mr. Weir, the emo
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: end cap. I have to do it as well, actually.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: I've got to remind myself. That's going to do it
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: for me. Thanks, everybody. Let's get some wins today. Peace.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 3: somebody answer. Let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: To lose this round alone. Hold on, not tonight, not
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 3: That bad luck bites hard But it don't get the
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 3: crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on. You're still here now.