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Aug 11 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260811 The August 11, 2026 edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason for Illinois Public Media, opens with market commentary and a preview of the upcoming USDA WASDE and crop production reports featuring Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing. Blohm highlights expectations for corn and soybean yield figures, technical trading trends, and broader market drivers such as European drought conditions and energy sector influences. Following a review of the latest USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report—which notes steady national development alongside accelerated progress in Minnesota—Gleason previews an upcoming insect management plot tour with extension entomologist Nick Seiter. The program then features Dr. Adam Davis, head of the Department of Crop Sciences at the University of Illinois College of ACES, who discusses the 150th anniversary of the Morrow Plots. Davis details the historical significance of the world's second-oldest experimental agricultural field, key long-term findings on soil management and crop rotation, recent site revitalization efforts, public celebration plans for October 28, and the introduction of the new Alma Mater plots. Closing out the broadcast, meteorologist Don Day of Day Weather reports from the U.S. National Hot Air Balloon Championships in Scottsbluff, Nebraska, detailing a "ring of fire" weather pattern across the Corn Belt that brings heat, muggy nights, and heavy localized rainfall, while analyzing how a strong El Niño could influence the upcoming harvest season. 02:00 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing 12:05 Insect Management Plot Tour Tomorrow 12:54 150th Anniversary of the Morrow Plots 17:21 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana Champaign Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 11th of August, 2026. I’m extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com and previews tomorrow’s USDA reports, including the WASDE and crop production figures. We’ll then turn our attention to the 150th anniversary of the oldest experimental plots in the United States for corn on the planet, for that matter, second oldest and maybe the oldest with a crop rotation in them. As we close out our time together, we’ll take a look at the weather forecast too. We’ll do that with Don Day at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled at $4.36 and three quarters, a penny and a half lower. December at $4.60 and a half, down one and a quarter. And the March at $4.76, a penny and a quarter lower. September soybeans, $11.51 and a half, down ten and a half. November beans down ten and three quarters, $11.68 and three quarters the settlement price. January, $11.84 and a quarter, down ten and a half cents. Bean meal down 50 cents for the day. Bean oil 96 cents lower. Wheat futures soft red December down 11 at $6.48 and a quarter, and the hard red December at $7.16, down 15 and a quarter cents. Live cattle futures 57 and a half cents lower. Feeder cattle up 67 and a half. October lean hogs down 35 cents for the afternoon. Crude oil up a dollar and a nickel for the day. 02:00 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us. Hi Naomi, thank you for being with us today. Naomi Blohm: Thank you for having me. Todd Gleason: It is the day before the USDA’s first crop production report of the growing season for corn and soybeans. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will also be released. It’s important to note that the USDA has no longer been taking objective yields for this particular report. It determined that those weren’t doing them very much good and they are using satellite and other things. I’m wondering if you’ve been watching what others have been saying about this report, as well as some of the yields that have been coming out. Most of them are pretty close to the 183 and 53 for corn and soybeans. What do you think of those numbers, and does Total Farm Marketing have a set of numbers? Naomi Blohm: The report tomorrow is definitely critical to not only price objectives for the short term, but as we wrap up 2026. We are going to keep an eye on all of the US production data and the global production numbers. They are both equally important, especially with that drought in Europe. In the United States, we are hearing yield numbers from private forecasters anywhere between 181 up to 185. That is why heading into the report, the average pre-report estimate is not too far off from the 183 number that the USDA gave us in July. On the soybean side, in similar fashion, we are seeing numbers pretty close to 53 for the soybeans for yield. Based on conversations I’ve had with clients at this time, I can’t argue too much with those numbers. We will see ultimately what that extreme heat did to the crop, but we probably don’t get that information until September or October. This report is definitely just up to satellite imagery, a little bit of farmer survey, and we will see what the USDA has to say tomorrow at 11:00 central time. Todd Gleason: Indeed we will. They also will update, if need be, the acreage figures. They’ve started doing that more oftentimes in August rather than much later in the year, as the FSA acreage figure dump is easier for them to access over the last several years. Is there any indication that acreage might change and consequently impact total production? Naomi Blohm: That is another question we are watching very closely. The USDA planted acres that we saw in June had a better background of survey numbers coming into it, so I feel like they are working with more credible information. I am very curious if there are any big changes. I don’t think there will be, but it would obviously be a shock to the system if there was a large change. I am thinking more small maneuverable changes, the USDA ultimately kicks the can down the road, and then we go back to trading weather. We will start watching crop tours as they unfold in the coming weeks as well, and then have to keep an eye on global weather at the same time. I have no idea what this report is going to say tomorrow, and the marketplace is responding that way as well. We are not overbought, we are not oversold heading into the report. We have been sitting on technical support levels for five trading days, which tells me the traders don’t have any idea either, and we are going to be free to trade and respond to whatever the USDA throws at us tomorrow. Todd Gleason: Speaking of that, why is it that soybeans, technically driven I assume, decided to test the downside today? Naomi Blohm: It sure did. Those November beans tested the 100-day moving average, and then it failed, and we actually closed below it. We did find some sell stops underneath the marketplace. I was a little surprised by that when we looked at crop progress ratings that came out yesterday afternoon. Beans are 62% good to excellent, down a point from last week. We are still below 68% from a year ago. I was a little surprised by that, but also, we did have a couple flash export sales that came out this morning, but not any of those big numbers from China that we were hoping to see. I am thinking if the marketplace has a pullback because of the report, then we will see China show up and do all that big buying and get them caught up on their export sales. A little bit of technical selling throughout the day today as there just wasn’t any big news to jump on. Todd Gleason: Given that, if tomorrow’s fundamentals remain the same as the trade expects, and we are far enough deep into the season now that I am not certain weather even for soybeans would matter very much, do you think this marketplace will be driven primarily by outside policy forces? For instance, the energies related both to the Iran-US war and the Ukraine-Russia war, or is there something else that it might turn to? Naomi Blohm: If we get a neutral report without a lot of big fresh news, it might allow for some quick technical sell-off to occur. A lot of times we don’t find that seasonal low for corn and soybeans until later August, so we might see some of that. Without any fresh news to trade off of specifically related to agriculture, we go back to watching outside markets. Seeing what is happening with crude oil, keeping an eye on what is happening with the US dollar and the stock market. Path of least resistance might easily be just slightly lower short term. Demand is so strong that if we have any downward pressure, I don’t think the market stays too low for too long because you are going to see a lot of end users come in, a lot of countries come in, and buy on sale as we get closer to the US harvest. Todd Gleason: Are you thinking neutral to friendly going into the end of August then? Naomi Blohm: My thought would be from the standpoint of pricing, corn and soybean prices right now are fair valued for the moment. If we don’t get immediate bullish news from the US production side or the global production side, we might see the market drift lower. I don’t think it would slam lower, but just drift lower. Any sign of a bottoming signal over the next week to two weeks would match the seasonal low for prices to find their bottom in late August, matching a harvest low. I am friendly when we get to December, January, and February, just because with smaller global levels of production because of the drought in Europe, if we have just an average crop in the United States, it is going to put pressure ahead on Brazil and Argentina to have to get the weather right. Absolutely perfect for production going forward. I am friendly as we get closer to 2027 in the short term, a bit of a mixed marketplace right now. Todd Gleason: It all could change tomorrow. We’ll find out. We’ll talk with you about it again next week. We appreciate it. Thanks much. Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: That’s Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Just a reminder USDA will release the crop production and WASDE world ag supply and demand estimates tomorrow morning at 11:00 am central time. We will update the numbers on our website under the USDA tab as quickly after that as we can get them posted. Yesterday afternoon the United States Department of Agriculture released the weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report. It showed that nationally the US corn crop is advanced slightly ahead of its historical pace with a 94% silking number. That compares to 93% on the five-year average. 61% of the crop has reached the dough stage versus 55% overall. Corn condition currently sits at 61% good to excellent. Soybean development tracking ahead of normal too. 93% of the crop is blooming, 91% is the five-year average. 74% has set pods, 69% is the historical mark. The US soybean crop is currently rated 62% good to excellent. When evaluating regional progress across key producing states, crop development in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas remains generally aligned with their respective five-year averages. Notable accelerations are occurring in the upper midwest and the northern plains. In Minnesota, the crop development is distinctly out of the ordinary as corn in the dough stage has reached 66%, well ahead of the 45% average, and soybean setting pods are at 84% compared to the 71% average. 12:05 Insect Management Plot Tour Tomorrow Todd Gleason: You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on a Tuesday afternoon. Look us up online, listen to us on demand anytime you’d like at willag.org, where in our calendar of events you’ll find tomorrow’s insect management plot tour. That kicks off at 10:00 am on South Race Street. You can find the details in the calendar again. Join Nick Seiter, extension field crops entomologist, for a two-hour event taking a look at the latest in insect management. Again, that’s tomorrow at 10:00 o’clock, the insect management plot tour with Nick Seiter right here on campus. Details in our website in the calendar at willag.org. 12:54 150th Anniversary of the Morrow Plots Todd Gleason: Now up next we’ll hear from Adam Davis. He’s the department head for crop sciences in the College of ACES, agricultural consumer and environmental sciences. He has been putting together the celebration for the 150th anniversary of the Morrow Plots. I asked him about the importance of the Morrow Plots in historical context for agriculture across the United States and across the planet. Adam Davis: They are the second oldest agricultural plots in the world, the oldest in North America. They represent one of the great things that Land Grant universities can do, which is be there for the long term and ask long-term questions. In this case, these plots were asking, what is the importance of soil management in long-term ag production? In particular, looking at what do we put back into the soil? Do we put back fertilizers? Do we put back crop residues from longer rotations? Those comparisons have shown that managing and stewarding your soil well can result in great yields 150 years later. Todd Gleason: These plots are in the center of campus. They are harvested really every six years for all of the information, because it’s the only time that they’re all in corn based on crop rotation. That’s been categorized since the very beginning. Adam Davis: That’s right. What we’ve seen over that 150 years in the record is the importance of hybrids, hybrid corn in increasing yields, the importance of different types of fertilizers, and the important effect of crop rotation. In comparison, in our continuous corn system where we don’t add anything in, the baseline yield has been around 25 bushels per year, whereas in some of the treatments where we take better care of things, we’re looking well over 200. Todd Gleason: At the end of the month of October on the 28th, you’re inviting the public to come to campus, to the center of campus near Mumford Hall, to come and celebrate the Morrow Plots. What are we expecting to do on that day? Adam Davis: We will talk about the history of the Morrow Plots, but we will also talk about this revitalization effort that we’ve done over the last year with the help of some donors that we’ll talk about on that day. We have removed the hedges from around the Morrow Plots so that the squirrels don’t have a place to hide and then go eat the corn yield. More importantly, replacing that hedge with a fence that people can look through and not let this be a hidden gem anymore, but really value it in the present and make sure that people understand what a resource it is. Todd Gleason: Here today we are on what will be and is now becoming the Alma Mater plots. I’d like to call this maybe an inauguration day of sorts. What is the hope for this set of plots, which is further to the south of campus, and what kinds of things will be studied? Adam Davis: The purpose of today was an unveiling of sorts, but also really getting stakeholder input. We’re looking at this asking what should we want to know over the next 150 years in it for the long term. At the very outset of the experiment before we start making treatments, we want to know what our ag stakeholders are interested in and make sure that this is an experiment that they feel is theirs and can contribute to and learn from. Todd Gleason: Adam, thank you very much. Adam Davis: Thank you. Todd Gleason: Adam Davis is the crop sciences department head in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences. The college will celebrate the 150th anniversary of the Morrow plots on the 28th day of October. Watch our calendar at willag.org for details. The public will be invited. 17:21 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the growing regions across the planet. Don Day is here. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming but coming to us today from Scottsbluff, Nebraska. Don, what are you doing there? Don Day: I’m here in Scottsbluff, Nebraska’s panhandle, helping to do the weather for the US National Hot Air Balloon Championships, which will be here in Scottsbluff for the next three years. Todd Gleason: So has the weather been calm enough for them to have launches in the morning? Don Day: It has been. We’ve been very fortunate. We’ve had gentle winds, which is what you want in the mornings. We’ve been dodging some afternoon thunderstorms, but so far so good. Todd Gleason: You are a balloon meteorologist. I think that’s kind of a title too. What does that mean? Don Day: Of all the things that people fly in that’s most sensitive to weather, it’s the balloon. Whether it’s a hot air balloon or an airship, we’re just so susceptible to changes and fluctuations in the weather, especially with the wind. When you get a lot of people up in the air in these things, you want to make sure you’re on top of the weather. That’s why I come in and help with these events. Todd Gleason: I have been in a balloon once and it was a magnificent ride. It is so calm and so beautiful. I assume you’ve been up many times in your career. Don Day: Yes I have. You’re right, it’s a totally different experience. Todd Gleason: A different experience. Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast. You have been driving, I suppose, a little bit, maybe seeing some crop, but I really want to know what you think about the corn and soybean crops across the midwest and what the weather forecast holds for us the rest of this week. It seems like we have fairly high but not super high highs and we really run off 20, 30 degrees going into the overnight, but still in the 70s for the most part, so warm. Don Day: Very warm. We have a classic situation here developing for the next couple of weeks. It’s gotten going here over the last five days or so. We call it the ring of fire setup, where a very strong, hot, high-pressure system develops over the southern plains, then moisture is feeding around the high, making a ring, clockwise circulation. We just get one thunderstorm after another that develops across a good part of the corn belt, midwest, and parts of the Great Lakes region, while it just sizzles down into the south central areas of the United States. With the extra humidity, with that high pressure, you get these really warm, very muggy nights. The rainfall in waves is going to be very heavy. There will be some areas of the western corn belt that pick up some badly needed precipitation, but we also tend to get severe weather in this situation. We’ve seen a lot of it today across Iowa, Illinois, into Ohio. Some very heavy rain, some very strong wind gusts. Off and on, really for the next ten days or so, this pattern is going to be rather persistent and hold. Todd Gleason: Because it’s persistent, fairly large, is it an unusual pattern for the month of August? Don Day: No. A lot of times these will happen late July, early August. Maybe this is happening a little bit later than what we’re used to, but you usually get during the course of a summer one or two of these to set up. This one just happens to be the strongest and it is coming a little late. Todd Gleason: Of the have nots in terms of rainfall, who’s most likely to pick up some rain that will help them out at the end of the season? Don Day: The interstate 80 corridor of the western corn belt, Iowa, Nebraska, northern Illinois, we are also going to see some of these rains get into Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Those are the areas that I think are going to benefit the most. You are going to, underneath this big high pressure in the south, see some very hot dry conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, into Texas, and parts of the western Gulf. This type of pattern though also in the longer term does make it a little bit easier for tropical activity to pick up in the southeast and the Gulf region later, and that’s something that we’ll need to keep an eye on. Todd Gleason: There has been much talk about this fall being wet. I’d like to ask you at the end of our conversation here, if you are of that frame of mind that the El Nino super El Nino might have an impact at least on some parts of the corn belt and harvest season. Don Day: It could. I think that’s something in the month of September that we’d really need to watch because yes, we’ve got a really strong El Nino. The signature of heavier precipitation is definitely going to be there. The trick is this: is the north-south extent of where the heavier rain is going to set up. That is something that I’m a little nebulous on at this point in time, but as we get into late August, into September and early October, there’s going to be some areas that do receive significant rainfall. How far north or south that pattern sets up is something that we’re just going to have to get a little bit closer to determine. Heavy rain is coming. Todd Gleason: Thanks much and fly safe. Don Day: Thank you, sir. Todd Gleason: That is Don Day with Day Weather out of Cheyenne, Wyoming. Though today he joined us from Scottsbluff, Nebraska where he is the lead meteorologist for the US National Hot Air Balloon Championships. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. I’m extension’s Todd Gleason.