Latest / Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds / SEC Football Deep Dive with Dave Bartoo LIVE In Studio 🏈

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SEC Football Deep Dive with Dave Bartoo LIVE In Studio 🏈 · Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Let's do this thing, The Out of Bounds Show, ESPN
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: one oh five nine The Zone. We are super excited
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: to have our good friend Dave bar two in Jackson, Mississippi,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: live in the studio once again. He has been here before,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: but I think it was twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: because Joe Morehead was the head football coach at Mississippi State.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Bar two and I hung out here and then we
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: went up to Pearl River Resort and had a great time.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: And by the way, the show is brought to you
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: by Pearl River Resort and Dancing Rabbit Golf Club and
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: the Vegas Style Sportsbook inside the Golden Moon. And that
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: is the time out loud, So Diamond Dave bar two
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Matrix Analytical on the Out of Bounds Show, Welcome back.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad you're here.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Man, I'm I'm I was. I was flying here last night,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: sleeping on the plane, going why the hell am I
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: doing this?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: And then then I get into Jackson, I get in
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: the airport and I'm like, wow, this thing has like
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: five flights a day. How does it have two SEC
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: teams in this in this state? Right? And the only
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: place to eat in the entire place is a dunkin
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: donut and the second and third, first and second floor
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: only have two bathrooms and one of them's closed. I'm like,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: this is two sec teams in it.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the hospitality state, which is what we are.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: This is like oh and then I walk in the
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: studio and I'm like, why don't we do this every year?
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Every year? It's nuts, not too I love being here,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: We're so glad you're here, and we we decided to
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: get Taste Pizza, Taste Italian Kitchen Pizza to start off.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: You're you're also not only are you doing shows with us,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: but you're gonna go on one hell of a culinary
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: tour two okay, okay.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: Well the pete, the the the uh what is it?
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Taste Italian Kitchen. Yeah, Taste Italian Kitchen Pizza. I highly
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: recommend extra bacon.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Yes, we got the meat lovers, by the way.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: And they didn't go cheap on that bacon. There was
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: there was a lot of chunks on that one. That
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: was tasty.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Lunch today brought to you by Taste Italian Kitchen. Jay Meadows, Uh,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: you didn't meet bar two last time? I guess you
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: were on your sabbatical and maybe Blake was here.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Blake, Okay, what kind of name is that?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Bulake Blake Mania, So it was it was Blake, and uh,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I don't remember who else, But anyway, bar two last
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: time he was in studio, and then the time before
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: that we met with Dan Mullen, which was phenomenal, phenomenal.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: First time a head coach ever raised his voice at me. Yeah,
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: I will remember that forever, and.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: You probably had since then because that was twenty thirteen, No,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: twenty thirteen or fourteen. Yeah, you've had more coaches raised
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: their voice at you since then, right.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: At a little a little bit, a little bit.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you this. You don't have to give
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: the name. Have you ever had a coach f bombing?
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: No? Okay, No, I haven't been f bombed. And I
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: think a lot of it just stems from what I do.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: It's data, right. What are you going to get mad
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: about other than not understanding it right? And that's why
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Dan raised his voice is because I was I wasn't
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: communicating what I needed from him to do the job right.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: And so but you know, with with coaches, I think
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: the best one, the best encapsulation I ever got when
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: we were talking because one of the most one of
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: the highly due diligence guys in coaching searches is Mario Right,
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: and he really really takes his time and he has
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: a very very specific process. And one of the things
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: I really enjoyed talking to him is when he just asks, Okay,
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: so what you're saying is this. I have to you know,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: I have to understand that here's the upside of this guy,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: and on a bad season, here's the downside. But three
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: out of four of his good seasons are up I
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: got to live with the down right, That's what I got.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: That's what I got to sleep on, right, that's what
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: I got to wake up to. And I said, that's
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: exactly it, because I think my biggest job is is
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: warning of the danger on the downside, the right right
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: at the risk, the risk, the downside risk right, because
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: it doesn't matter if if it's Pete Golding or or
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Jeff Levy or John Sumrall or Kirby Smart. One bad
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: higher can sink years. It's not just the money, it's
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: the losses, it's the time, it's it's.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: The prom showing up right.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: It's everything and so it's trying to avoid that downside,
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: and it's the same thing even with like play calling.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: One of the new things now that I have in
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: front of me here is over the last two years,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: I've been able to train several different ais on college
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: football data and NFL data, so we can do we'll
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: be able to do things when we're talking about any coach.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: You know, I just wrote an article on comparing Josh
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: Heipel to Alex golsh all of their play by play
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: in situational football for the entirety of twenty twenty five.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Took eight minutes too. Eight minutes right, I just add, well,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: we were sitting here getting ready for this as you're
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: introing us. I am asking about where JE tell me
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: about Jeff Levy in third and fourth down situational analysis
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: in the SEC for twenty twenty five in one score games,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: And look at this, we got an article we can
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: talk about here. So I am there is no end
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: to what we can talk about. And I really one
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: of the things I hope is we have time either
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: during a show tomorrow or Wednesday or after the show,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: is take questions from listeners and I sit here and
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: pop off answers what I can find back to you.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Remind me Jackson when we're live one of the days
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: that we need to do rapid fire with bar two
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: through the text line. Okay, cool, all right, so our
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: friend Dave bar two Matrix Analytical on the at a
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: bound show. I do want to start with Levy and
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: we're going to hit a lot of Levy and John
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: David Baker and Golding and sold and possibly are.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: Okay, what we need to do is compare to John
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: David Baker last year, to Kiffen Wewiss last year. Yes,
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: what are the differences run pass ratios, aggressiveness on third down,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: fourth down, you know, red zone, all of that stuff.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: So put a pin in that one. We are going
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: to I think we're going to try to preview John
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: David Baker versus Weiss and Kiffin five.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Ok.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: That should be I'm hoping it's fascinating. There's always nuggets
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: in here where they're very, very different. You know. Another
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: example on that Will Stein and Kenny Dillingham at Oregon
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: and Kenny is a run heavy guy. Will came in
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: pass heavy and it didn't fit, and so each year
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: it got more and more run heavy till now. Will
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: Stein when he left was almost like Kenny Dillingham. You
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: could almost see Dan and his offensive line go, you
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: need to do this and run the ball more. But
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: it tells me Kentucky, even though he's not going to
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: be the play caller, I bet he's gonna be throwing
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: the ball a whole Well, it doesn't matter who it is,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Kentucky throwing the ball a whole lot more than you
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: ever seen with stoops. But and maybe even successfully so.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: But but I think from a Kentucky standpoint, I think
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: you're gonna see the pass game really get bumped up,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: because that's what will Stein really liked and gravitates to.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, bar two on the Out of Bounds show, brought
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: to you by Pearl River Resort. Okay, so some numbers
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: as you were flying over here. Jeff Levy's in the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: year threes on the hot seat, He's seven and eighteen overall,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: one in fifteen in conference play. Last year was okay.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: The year one was an absolute disaster. And and you
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: were talking about situationally yep, play calling, situational play calling.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So give us a rundown on Jeff Levy his tendencies,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: what he likes to do third and three, third and four,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: third and five Part two.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Okay, So I when when I'm when I'm parsing through data,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: one of the things that I really like to do
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: is I don't like data as a whole because run
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: pass ratios can get skewed. You know you're up twenty,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: you're up twenty eight, it's fourth quarter, you're taking knees,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: you're running the clock. Numbers can get skewed. So I
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: try to look at head coaches and play callers when
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: games are close one score games.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're not worried about when they play a G
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: five team and they win forty five to ten. No,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: you want to know what's happening in conference, right.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: I want to know what Jeff Levy's doing when of
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: the games on the line against Arizona State, right against Toledo,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: right where it's where it's one score the whole dang game,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: right and so uh And to me, when I when
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: I look at situational analysis, I'm always looking at third
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: and fourth down. Okay, And so as we are sitting down,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: I asked, I literally ask give me a write up
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: on Jeff Levy situational football. Third and four down in
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: one score games. Uh. In the SEC. So on overall
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: on third down attempts, uh, he ran the ball forty
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: percent of the time and had a forty one percent
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: overall conversion rate. Fourth down he only ran it thirty
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the time, but he had a fifty
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: four percent conversion rate on fourth down. So it's really
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: solid there. But what it says the overall story of
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: his numbers is Levy's Mississippi State offense is middle of
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: the pack in tendency, but struggles with execution. I know
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: I heard everybody out there shit day right, right, but
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: but it says particularly on third and long where the
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: run game completely breaks down. So third and seven to
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: third and ten, okay, over seven didn't in a one
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: score game the third and seven to third and ten, No,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: it was oh for seven on third down that was four.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: You know, it was bottom of the bucket in the SEC. Uh,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: third and eleven, oh for four. No, no conversions where
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: where he ranks low on on some of these things.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: Third eleven passing one for thirteen. So when they passed
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: on third and eleven, they were one for thirteen in
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: what I call high what would we call that high leverage,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: high pressure situation. Sure, and I know maybe it's the
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: first quarter, but man, at Missippi State, you're trying to
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: win a damn ball game, right, Everything is high pressure,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: high leverage situation right now, you know, especially going into
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: year three. So the passing game really broke down in
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: third and eleven plus fourth down. Overall they were eleven
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: of sixteen for fifty three point eight percent, but SEC
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: average sixty percent. So I mean that's that's six percentage
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: points below the conference average. So the decision to go
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: was better than a coin flip, but it was still
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: under the conference numbers. And then fourth and short converting
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: fourth and short running the football in a close ballgame,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: went for it four times, and fourth and short is
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: fourth and one two or three went for at four times,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: only got one of them worst than the SEC.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Didn't have a running quarterback.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: You know, and you know, well, did you have a
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: running game? Right? Not really defensive line. See, because one
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: of the things that I find really interesting is when
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: you look at the run to pass ratios for Jeff
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: relative to the rest of the conference. He ran the
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: ball a lot in third and four, third and five,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: third and six, he ran the ball was He was
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: top five in the conference in run pass ratio in
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: third and four, third and five, third and six, which
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: is not what we would expect from a passing offensive coordinator.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Right, well, so so here's the question, right, here's the
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: subjective side of it. Does he have faith in the offense,
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: faith in the offensive line, faith in the quarterback? Why
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: is he running the This is a this is a
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: guy that is coach quarterbacks at FAU or what ucf
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: ucf oh miss Oklahoma? You know, I mean this guy
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: has coached quarterbacks everywhere and those quarterbacks have been really good.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: So is there lack of faith in something in the
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: offense to be running the ball like your Georgia, Because
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: that's what it looks like when if you looked at
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: all of this stuff right here, it goes Okay, teams
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: that run the ball a lot on third and four,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: third and five, third and six. Last year, Georgia, Right, Alabama, Tennessee,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: mississippis C What misssippis C.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: You know, it's just not same personnel that the same line.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: It's not the same personnel, the same coaches.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: No, no, now, but now Josh is a is one
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: of the top offensive coordinators in the SEC in the country, right,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: and he's still running it a lot. But it surprised
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: me that in these situations, in close games, he was
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: going to the run when I think a lot of
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: fans would think, oh, he's got to be passing the.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Ball a lot.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: You know, we got Blake, we got his offense, we
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: should be throwing the football. And for whatever reason, you know,
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: and you know, maybe there's a logic behind it. I'm
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: sure there is, but it just seemed odd to see
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: them caught up with something like that. And again the race.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: He ran the ball a lot for the conference. Okay,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: at third and four, five and six, yep, actually third
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: and short, third and one, two and three. He was
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: number four in the SEC and run rate seventy seven
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: point one percent.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Now here's the flip side. I actually want him to
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: do that this year with the six foot four, two
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: hundred and thirty pounds QB. You know last year, you know,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Blake's six feet one nine and he wasn't a mobile,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: you know, threat this guy, I'm hoping let me find
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: some you know, mojoe in a path, because now you've
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: got a guy who can fall forward at sixty four
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: and get your yard.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: Right right, and and look at look at state though, right,
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: Cario Taylor, go ahead, Yeah, I just say third and
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: short the run rate with seventy seven percent, third and
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: short run conversion rate seventy four percent, top five in
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: the SEC. So third and short, you know, three and
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: under they committed to the run, and they converted a
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: lot better than the rest of the SEC. And so
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: that that third, four, five, and six, that's kind of
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: the big question mark there. And fourth and medium pass
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: conversions two out of four, uh in close game situations.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: And third medium run conversion is still sixty two percent.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: He was running at at a higher rate, but his
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: conversion rate was still solid in the SEC. I just
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: I just thought it was interesting that I expected him
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: to have higher pass to rush ratios when really he
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: had a higher run to pass ratios, and then at
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: some point it just falls off. I was talking to
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Elis Johnson, a former defensive coordinator at I think, yeah,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Eli has been everywhere, and I think he's got a
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: championship ringer too. And he always told me he was like,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: you know, one of the things he would do is
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: map out win the offense stopped calling runs at one point, third, fourth,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: or five, third and six, and he said it would
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: take you know, a week to do the previous seven
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: weeks getting ready for the next game. And I was like, hey,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: what's this, And there's Alex Golish. Last year third and
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: seven stopped running the ball all together. So he was
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: it was It was funny because he's just laugh at
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: how we can take any offensive coordinator in the country
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: and give him exactly what he said to spend weeks on.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah they did that. Yeah, I mean before this
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: it took him forever. Okay, bar two on the Added
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Bounds Show, brought to you by the Golden Moon Casino. Okay,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: So Levy, we went through some of those numbers, John
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: David Baker, you expect him. I think people don't realize
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: how much Lane likes to run the football.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: Oh okay, great example. Look at this while we're here.
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: Third down run rate in the SEC last year. So
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: where does Levy fall relative to the leaders? So third
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: and short one to three yards seventy seven number four
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: in the SEC. Georgia was number one. They ran at
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: eighty four percent of the time. Alabama was last. They
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: only ran it fifty four percent of the time.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: They couldn't run it last year they were awful, which
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: is not Bama like, no, it's it's it's a secondary
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: remember life, Bama has run the foot even on years
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: they didn't do what they wanted, they have run the
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: football right.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: But then look at a third and medium, four, five
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: and six, Mississippi State seventh in the conference. Ole Miss
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: led the conference forty forty six percent. They ran it
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: on third and four, five and six. Damn, third and seven, eight,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: nine and ten Mississippi State tenth in the conference, Conference
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: leader ole Miss thirty five percent.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: How about that third.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: And long all right? Mississippi State number seven leader ole Miss.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Ole Miss had the biggest run to pass ratio in
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: the SEC last year.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Who would have thunk Trinidad champions in close games?
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Close games? Mind you? Mind you? This is this is
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: one score games Lane and or Charlie. I don't know
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: who the hell it is. I don't care right it is,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: but but the Rebels ran the football and they kept
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: running it in close games. They were not afraid of
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: running the football, and I maybe maybe that's the sign
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: of the strength of an offensive coordinator that is really
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: comfortable in mixing up the play calls.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: So Lane was willing to run it almost regardless on
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: third down of if it was seven eight yards, but
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: if at four, five and six, he led the conference.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: So he's like, hey, I got Trinidad, I got key one, Lacy,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: and I think we can we can go get yards.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Right right, And then you look at states conversion ratios. Right,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: when they ran on third and short, they converted it
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: seventy four percent of the time. When they passed on
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: third and short, fifty percent of the time, eleventh in
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: the SEC, third medium run conversions sixty three per pass
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: conversions thirty okay, and then third and long seven to
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: ten yards, they converted that at thirty four and a
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: half percent, ninth in the SEC. And then once it
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: was once it was third and plus eleven, it was
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: just everybody went to go get a beer while they
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: waited for the punt, right and it was it was
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: a seven point seven percent conversion rate. Now, if nothing worked,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: they didn't run the ball at that point. So but
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: you look inside these numbers and you go, okay, passing
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: on third and short, passing on third and medium, they
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: were both remarkably worse than running the football, remarkably worse,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: and so Jeff would never say it, right. This is
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: SEC media week, so it's just going to be a
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: word salad of blah blahlah blah blah blah blah blah.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: But I looking at these numbers, I don't think Jeff
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: had any faith in his quarterback passing the football last
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: year Wow, and had a lot more faith in the
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: run game. And it produced. It produced, And maybe it
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: wasn't the maybe it was the schemes in terms of
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: how the run game match with the offensive line or whatever.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: But these pass numbers inspire no confidence. I'm gonna look
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: at this. Fifty percent on third and short, far below
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: the rush rate, barely under forty percent on on third medium,
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: and they're running it. They're they're converting rushes in the
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: sec third and four, third and five, third and six
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: at sixty three percent in tight football games. So I
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: think the best thing to take away from this is
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Jeff is doing really well in the running game. All
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: the running numbers conversion wise, situational football close games, they're
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: all in the top six of the SEC. Everything in
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: the passing is all on the bottom half, which goes
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: against everything we would think it should be logical. So
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: maybe the quarterback just wasn't very good.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: Okay, and that I think there was something to that.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: And Blake didn't run and when he did, he didn't
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: run un effectively. And Camrio Taylor is a runner first,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: and he's huge at six foot four, two thirty. So
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see next year at the end
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: of the year when bartwo and I are going over this,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: what Jeff's decides to do, right, like, does he stay
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: with this, you know, play calling, especially knowing that now
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: you've got Camrio who can run it with a tailback
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: he was having success with without AQB, who was a threat.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: That's something to think about and look at as we
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: get into the season.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: It is and I think I think one of the
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: things in our discussions that kind of sparked an idea
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: in my mind is that look at the end of
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: September and how what is the run to pass ratio?
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: What does the go for it on fourth down ratio?
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: Like the article I did on comparing Hypel and Goalish,
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: and we'll get to both those guys in other segments,
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: but Goalish went for it on fourth down forty five
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: percent more than Josh did.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Last year forty five percent.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: Right, I mean, you know, and so is that indicative
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: of the type of play in the SEC and the
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: AAC or is it indicative in the kind of quarterback
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: that Alex think he thought he had and the kind
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: of quarterback Josh thought he had, right so so, and
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: to carry that over to Levy, if we look at
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: third and short, third and medium, fourth and short, fourth
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: and medium, is he going for it more or less?
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: And is he passing or running more or less? That
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: may be a window. Not just Jeff, but by the
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: end of the same taber, we can go, oh, look
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: at fourth down attempts are down, pass the run ratios down.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: This guy won't admit it, but he thinks his quarterback
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: isn't as good as the other guy's.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: So I want to ask you Q. You mentioned Georgia
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: at eighty four percent. Yeah, and people, it's funny that
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: you threw that out with Kirby smart and I very
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: much understand why he would do that, but especially pre
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: before everything got fractured and splintered, I wonder if they're
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: having the success that they want and if he's actually
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: running it a little too much, or if you just
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: have top five talent that you know you lean on
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: that and you feel like x amount of whatever percentage
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: of the time, whatever that good number is that you
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: have devocation line or whatever you know, is that is
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: that two run heavy? I guess is Well, let's let's
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: look let's look at Georgia. I mean, Georgia was running
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: it on third and short and they were converting it
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: at eighty one percent.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: Then that's a win, right, which was in the run game.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: They had the third best conversion run game behind Tennessee,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: who was running the ball time right in Missouri.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not hearty with Missouri from this from miss right.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: And what's amazing? Get this, so third and short. Alabama's
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: run game converted more, Arkansas's run game converted way more. Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: Mississippi State. When you passed on third and short, it
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: was fifty percent. Right, Everybody but Oklahoma, Texas, A and
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: M and Vanderbilt had a better pass conversion rate than
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: a run conversion rate. Oklahoma didn't have a run game,
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: and am had a quarterback, and Vanderbilt obviously was fueled
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: by Pavia. Right. And so I'm starting to think that
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: there might be a window in the numbers to what
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: the head coach and the offensive coordinator think about their
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: quarterback without saying it, right, how much, how do they
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: utilize them in specific situations going forward? So yeah, I
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: mean Georgia ran it, you know, exclusively in short uh,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: and they just converted eighty percent. It was just that simple.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: But then you go over to third medium and again
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: eighty percent conversion rate. When they ran it, they had a.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Bitch and run game, and some people didn't think they
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: were as good whatever that means. But I mean, again,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: that's just all the eyeball tests and gut and that's
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: just watching games and breaking beer and eating wings and thinking,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: you know that what we see. You know, we saw X, Y.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: And Z, right, And so I'm really one of the
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: things that I'm excited about is trying to find behaviors
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: inside the numbers that tell us what they think of
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: their players, okay, and they're lying.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, and tying that in with either having a dual
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: threat quarterback or a statue right or somewhere in between.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: You know, like Trinidad bounces around, runs around. Now Camrio this,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, he may say he may be able to
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: save Levy's job because of being six foot four, two
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: thirty and being able to run the football. We don't know,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: but it gives Jeff an option for that because he
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: hasn't had one the last two years.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: Right, right, Yeah, so we're gonna find out. But I
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: also think by the end of September will be a
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: third of the way through the season. And I really
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: feel because who does Mississippi State start with in the
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: first four?
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: All right, so it's lo mon Row at home, at Minnesota,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: at South Carolina, Missouri at home.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Okay, so that's a great sample size, right, They weren't
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: with not Cupcake City. No, And so I really feel.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: But not anybody that's great either, right, I mean Minnesota,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, Missouri. We one of them could be good,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: but it's definitely not Cupcake City.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: No, it's not.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: But we also, yes, I was right Missouri.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: We could also agree though that depending on where those
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: games are played, the talent that state has relative to
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: the talent of those programs, the conversation should be that
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: should those are worst, number one, you start out want
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: to know or but he goes home? Right, let's just
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: be on true, right, true, right, everybody's gone to the
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: beach in the hunting all bet all bets are off
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: if stays no one. But at Minnesota got you know,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: there's got to be better than a fifty to fifty.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: From a talent standpoint, Misissippi State has better talent.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Well, last week you told me for our listeners, Bar
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: two doing a composite of high school and portal TALENTEP
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State's ranked thirty second on his numbers okay with
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Matrix Analytical, and Minnesota's ranked forty nine. Now the flip side,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: and how bart somebody like Bar two handicaps this is
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: he weighs this Mississippi State thirty two in talent, Minnesota
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: forty nine. But then you got a way PJ. Flex
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: got over ten years of head coaching experience compared to
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Levy going into year three with not a lot of success.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: So like, how do you You always want to have
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: more talent, but how do you how do you balance that?
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: And that?
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: And that goes into the coach effect, coffect right and
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: coach I love right. Well, I changed it. You told
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: me I changed it. And because I have so much
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: data now that AI in working with it. The one
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: thing I got, the footnote I got to tell everybody
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: about AI is it can't think on its own. Okay,
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: it cannot research. If you ask it to be a
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: data analyst, it can't do anything. So when I'm working
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: with it, I have to be able to tell it
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: what to do, what to search for, what to parse through,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: And you have to understand the data coming back because
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: it lies all the time. It will make things up.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: It'll literally say, oh, you caught me. I was just
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: trying to give you what you wanted to hear, right,
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: So so, but in creating coach effect, I used all
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: the talent numbers, and I used all of the spreads
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: and the home in the road. Uh And it basically
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: said that seven twenty percent, sixty nine points something seventy
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: percent of all power for football games are won by
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: the better recruiter, plus or minus the home field advantage. Okay,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: so now we got thirty percent. We're trying to figure
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: out the coach effect. And the difficulty I had before
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: was it was really hard to have negative coach effect
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: when you had the worst talent, and it was really
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: hard to have positive coach effect when you had the
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: most talent, like a Nick Saban, right, So it was
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: it was able to aggregate it in a way where
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: the bad talent still could have bad coach effect and
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: the good talent could still have good coach you know,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: good good talent, you can still earn good coach effect
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: with it. And then it added a component wins above replacement.
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: So you know, Nick Saban the country. Yeah, Nick Saban
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: led the country. He is, he is, He was a
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: seventy seven point one and that is the number one number.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: Uh and and he is the next closest is Davo
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: in terms of wins above replacement.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: That's like since twenty ten, twenty ten, Yeah.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: Right, right. So the cool thing about coach effect now
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: is I can use it to project season win totals
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: based on their past behavior. Okay, So so for example,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Jeff I got Jeff let be his so he had
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: a I remember you coming on after year one, bar two, two,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: and ten, and the coach effect was brutal.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: Yes, you can't lose to Toledo at home. You can't
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: lose to that Arkansas team at home. Those are the
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: kind of things that just aren't right.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: And and his coach effect under the new numbers is
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: was minus four point one one games. Okay, Okay, to
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: give you an example of how not great that was.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: Bill Belichick led the Power four in negative coach effect
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: last year at minus three point eight four. So Jeff
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: at minus four point one one was twenty twenty four
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: was rough where everybody was. Okay, Now last year at
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: five and seven minus one point oh three, that's a
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: huge progression. That is a big positive move in the
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: right way. But our two combined years is still minus
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: two point five to seven. Okay. So so he's two
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: years into his ten year and he's five games under
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: average coach replacement, right, he's five games under, and so
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: that his his good hell. Right, So there's one hundred
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: and nineteen guys with a coach effect grade in the
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: FBS right now from one year to x right, because
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: obviously guys with no history Pete goldiga zero, he's not ranked.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: So the one hundred nineteen out of one hundred and
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: thirty eight Jeff right now is one hundred and eleven
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: out one hundred nineteen in coach effect. Okay, but we
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: have a good year, we can turn it around, right,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: because it's only two years into that. So his best
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: season is minus one, worst seasons minus four. Now you
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: apply that to Anne to this season, right, you apply
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: that to this season.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: It's in meadows, right, did you hear? Well?
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: Now you apply it to this season. Ok And then
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: plus I have the coach effective everybody, they're going up again,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: and we got the home and road totals, and we
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: got the talent totals, and so right now the market
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: line the last time when I when I wrote this,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: the market line had over under on win totals Mississippi State.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: It's four and a half. Okay. This schedule with this talent,
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: says an average coach wins five point four games. Okay, Okay,
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: but based on his history, four and eight is the
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: most likely outcome at twenty seven percent. Five and seven
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: repeating last year is right behind it at twenty six percent.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: So it's literally projected at four point five six wins
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: in the market line is four and a half. So
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: I got nothing. We are not betting Jeff. We're not
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: betting Jeff over under. We're not. Yeah.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Is by the way, again, the over unders four and
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: a half for BAR two and Matrix analytical. Okay, and
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: that's with a non game conference schedule and having to
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: play at Minnesota. So I want to go through this again,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and Mississippi State. Mississippi State is thirty second in
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: talent high school in Portal, Minnesota's forty ninth. But then
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: you get and it's at Minnesota. So Mississippi State gets
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: on the field that morning, they have the most talent.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: And we said that. But Flack has been a coach
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: row in the boat for a while, and to me,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: he's one at a place that has virtually no high
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: school prospects and really is a crappy program. I mean,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: he's been I think about a seven win a year coach,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: and I think that's about as good as it gets
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: for the Golden Gophers.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: May well, let's look at let's look at his coach effect.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: Let's let's take a look at what we're going up
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: against here.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Now. People have mentioned that if Levy doesn't work out.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: This was actually a topic on the board Jean's page
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: over the weekend. Could they live if they could lift PJ. Flack?
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Would you take him? December first? Row the boat?
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Okay, Well, PJ Flack his coach effect is plus point
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: four to eight, So he's plus half a game a year. Okay,
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: so he's he's three games his career averages is three
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: games a year better than Jeff.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: He's a Minnesota too, and Western Michigan and Western Michigan, right,
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: and he is a he's a different dude.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but he's also a fiery recruiter. I like that guy, man,
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: I do know he wants out of Minnesota.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Really? Why long?
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: Okay? Now his best coach effect year is plus three
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: point ninety three games plus.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Four Okay, so literally.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: The opposite of what Jeff did in twenty twenty four.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: So he has a really high ceiling. Now his worst
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: year is worse than the Mississippi State twenty twenty four.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: So he's laid some stinkers before.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: I didn't know that. Yeah, why he's still there, I
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: guess because he's just well, I think half flight directors
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: don't know any better. I mean, to me, if you've
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: won even with this stinker season, I think, if you've
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: won at Minnesota and haven't lived at four and eight,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: if you can go six to eight wins majority of
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: the time, whatever Barto is about to tell me, then
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: to me, you're doing a day. I mean, how many
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: powerful prospects do they have a year? Jack?
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Up up there, and look how we started Minnesota,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: and I'm gonna use some round numbers, okay to make
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: it little bas year, But he was five and seven
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: minus one game coach effect. Next year six and six
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: minus a half game coach effect, next year ten and two.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: Did you know Minnesota went ten and two in twenty nineteen.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: I did plus three games coach effect. Twenty twenty, we
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: can wipe it out. I don't know. We talk about it.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: Three and he was still three and three and plus
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: coach effects. Actually pretty good twenty twenty one, eight and four.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: See, to me, that's like a phenomenal.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Year plus a game and a half. Twenty twenty two
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: plus a game. Now, twenty twenty three took a step
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: back five and seven minus a game and a half.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: But that's not bottoming out.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: But then he turned around the next year and he's
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: plus a game and a half at seven and five.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: So that's strong.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: So this guy started negative negative, and then he went
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: plus plus plus, plus, negative, plus plus in the last
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: seven years.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: To me, that's a good coach. Coach.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: That's that's basically like him coming here and going six
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: and six are better for six out of seven years.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right, that's right.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: And if you're complaining and Dan did that right, six
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: and seven or six and six and better for six
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: out of seven years, and one of them is ninety
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: three in the top twenty five.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Huge who's complaining? No, nobody or they shouldn't. And so
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: that the interesting thing about p J. Flack is, like
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: you said, Jackson, I'm surprised he's still there. But he
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: doesn't bottom out, so he doesn't throw up any what's
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: his worst year? Would you say five and seven or no?
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: I think bar two said that was a one? Maybe one? Four?
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there was a stinker at Western Michigan when he
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: first started there. That must have been don't he don't
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: He started Western Michigan at one and eleven, that's it, yeah, right,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: But then the next year he was eight and three.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan was trashed whenever.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: Right, and then he wont Then he went twelve and one.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, no, I don't even that's a on that one.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: And he's done it twice, right, He's done this at
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: two different programs. His first year both of them were
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: his well, No, at Minnesota, his first year was his
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: second worst year, okay, but at Minnesota. His worst year
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: at Minnesota is equivalent to what Jeff did last year
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: at Mississippi State. That was pj's worst coaching year at Minnesota.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: So back to where we are, Mississippi State thirty second
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: in talent in the country, Minnesota forty ninth. How much
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: of a bump does Minnesota get with what bar two
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: just went over with him being a head coach for
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: a long time and having success ninety percent of.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: The time, right, right, A, you know something and it's
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: hard to quantify, right, And that's why I call this
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: as a coin flip. You know, this first game, this
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: you know after Lo Monroe, right, you know, the first
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: game is a coin flip. South Carolina to me has
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: to be a point flip as well, just from the
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: standpoint of the talent that they that they have is better.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: But it's not like they coached great last year. Now,
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: granted Shane and and I'll tell you I approved every
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: single one of those I was the best offensive uh
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: coaching staff transformation in the SEC. It's not just Briles,
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: it was Clement's right. You got Offen, the new offensive
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: line coach, you got a new running back coach, you
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: got a new offensive Coordinator's South Carolina. The pressure is
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: to win that game. They got to win that.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: Well, Bartwo's referencing someone that he's been talking about for years,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: and that's Kendall Brows. And I think bar two would agree.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: This is the first time Beamer is going to have
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: a B B plus a type level, see a legitimate
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Clayton White has been carrying this thing, you know, and
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: bar two has been spot on. He's been carrying it
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: for a while, kind of like Brad White at Kentucky,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Clayton at South Carolina.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: I saw something I was flying today. I said something
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: on Twitter. Shane was talking about staffy.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh, I got to read this one.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: And Bob was telling him. Bob he said, Bob Stoops
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: told me, hey, take your time because that first staff
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: is critical, Like you took your time with your hired
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: Marcus Sadderfield, Like, oh man, your decision paradigm just needs
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: to get burned. That's like bad game film. Just we're
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: not even looking at that ship. Just throw it away.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, that's great. So you're not a you're
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: not a big Sadderfield guy.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: No I'm not. And then he went to Nebraska and
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: I said, don't hire him there, and yeah, that that
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: didn't work so well for me either being really hardlined
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: with the head coach about who they shouldn't hire, right,
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: so I just tell them what the risks are.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Now, that's that's yea.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Even though Sadurfield got fired the next year.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: So Minnesota and Mississippi state bar two's got is a
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: is a coin flip, right, and but well, pretty nice
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: talent advantage. Minnesota has a really really nice head coach advantage.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: I don't you know, we'll see who's uh.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: Well, and then and then look at Beamer. Okay, Beemer's
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: negative and coach effect too. Just I mean, we'll we'll,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: we may preview him, but in case we you know,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: hece we running out of time. Where's Oh my goodness,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: where's Beamer at? He's in here somewhere, he's he's he's
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: a negative as well. Oh there's Steve Sarkisyan. Yeah, man,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: so Shane's so. Shane's career coach effect at South Carolina
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: is minus point one point seven. Basically, he is a
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: dead average coach. He's eighty fourth out of one hundred
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: and nineteen in college.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Football, eighty fourth out of about.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: So coaching matchup to me is I'm as far as
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: I'm concerned. This is a really really similar where's that
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: game at? Is it in Columbia or.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: It's in Columbia?
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: I know that's that's see that that's that's a bad
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: scheduling break right in Minnesota. We don't care where that's
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: at because talent wise should overcome that no matter what,
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: whether it happens or not, that's irrelevant. Uh, Missouri, South Carolina, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: Those are the games you really really wanted home because
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Georgia Texas flips where it's at right, it does not
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: right right, You're just trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: Jeff Levy was up seventeen points against Texas with nine
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: minutes left last year and and lost the game. Okay,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: So Shane Pee Shane Beeamer for our listeners is is
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: just an average head head coach, nothing great, coach effect,
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: nothing terrible. And I think that that season two years
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: ago really helped him. I think they won nine or ten.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: And twenty twenty four. Yeah, that was his highest coach effect.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: That was one plus one point ninety four. But he
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: turned around last year and crapped the bed at minus
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: two point sixty nine, right, he couldn't sustain it. He
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: had that one grade and he had the quarter. He
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: had sellers coming back. Yeah, you know, and.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Now Kendle brows and sellers. I think that's going to
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: be some good magic.
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: It's it's certainly got to be one of the top
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: ten things that makes you go ooh, this is an
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: interesting storyline in the SEC.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, and uh, this could decide Levy or Beamer's future.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, these games are every game in the Power
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: for matters. I don't know if shame's on that that
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: big of a hot seat. We know that Levy is,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: so he's got to get to six or seven. People
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: debate that all the time. Whatever.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: You look at these numbers, I think he has to be. Yeah,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: because he's because he is. He is basically you take
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: any So, so since two thousand ten, uh, his coach effects.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: So since since I said the active, he's eighty four
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: out of one nineteen active. Okay, but since twenty ten
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: guys with three or more years of head coaching experience,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: he is one hundred and fiftieth out of two seventy two.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Lord Shane Iss, Yeah, one hundred and fifty out of
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: two seventy two. So he's right in the middle. He's
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: just he's a he's he's average, dude. Oh and five season,
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: he's thirty two and twenty eight with top twenty five
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: recruiting talent. Man. What the only thing that's not average
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: is the roller coaster twenty four up, twenty five down.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: He's got a he's got a good ceiling. He's got
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: a terrible floor.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: And that's scary, okay, And right now Levy's got a
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: terrible floor, And right now there's nothing.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: We don't have a feeling, we don't have a ceiling,
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: you know. I think I think this year to be
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: to be plus, to be zero average head coach, like
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: I said, is five and seven for him to get
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: a plus, uh, he's got to be at six.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: And six, Okay, and that that makes that makes sense?
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: Right? I mean, you got to get this thing to
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: six and six, even five and seven. I think we'd
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: all agree. Five and seven this year is much stronger
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: than five and seven last year because of the Minnesota and.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and one more conference.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're at Minnesota, not just Minnesota at Minnesota and
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: the additional conference game. No question in my mind, five
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: and seven twenty twenty sixth State is vastly better than
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: five and seven five. But I think to your point, though,
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: is we have we need that progression, right Jeff needs it,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: the fans need it, everybody needs that progression, because right now,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: if it's four and eight again, that's three consecutive years
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: under average coach effect. That shouldn't fly anywhere.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's let's stay with the schedule with Levy bar two.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Just hit on something, and Jeff pulls about as good
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: as you can get at home. He gets Missouri at home,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt at home, Auburn at home, and even Oklahoma, who's
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: not They're not great, They're they're obviously good on defense,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: but there's still you know, Venables is a typical defensive
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: coach who's trying to figure out on the offensive side
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: of the football. So Mississippi State gets Missouri, Vandy, Auburn, Oklahoma,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: and I think a big boy at at home Obama
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Obama so windless at home, so easy. But look, Vandy, Missouri,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: and Auburn should be winnable games. They may not win them,
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: they should be winnable games at home.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: What is it? It's going to come down in the
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: coin flip games?
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: Right, no doubt.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Right, So I mean.
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: Sore Mission, right, I mean Minnesota, South Carolina, Minnesota, lobon Roe,
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: Tennessee Tech.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: I think you got to win all three of those
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: shot at six and six, right, And then you go
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: to your coin flips Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, LSU do aren't
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: coin flips? Right? You get so the the other coin
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: flips then are at Carolina home against Missouri home against Vanderbilt. Yeah,
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: and at Old Miss. No, I don't see that as
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: a coin flip either, because actually old Miss here's the thing.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Or we'll get we'll get to old Miss. I'm gonna
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: tease old Miss a little bit here. When you use
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: my hybrid recruiting ranking composite method. Ole Miss is top
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: ten over the last four years.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: How about that?
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: And top ten teams shouldn't finish with less than ten losses,
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: they lesson less than less than two losses to less
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: than ten wins. No, I'm just drinking the water. It's water,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: it's not vodka. That's the beer. And I haven't tested
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: all right, A lot of pressure on pete.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: You're a lot of pressure, huge pressure on hybrid composite recruitalent.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: Yep, YEP, hybrid. Yeah, hybrid composite recruiting, and.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: You have Old Miss in the top ten.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, look at all their classes. Look at these
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: transfer porters. They're pulling five and five, four, three one.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: You know something, You can't overlook that stuff. It's real.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: And to say well those count less or more, No,
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: they don't. That's that's part of the new transfer feeding cycle. Right.
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: And Old Miss figured it out early and has stayed there.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: So why shouldn't their expectations be higher today than they
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: were yesterday?
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: So they have their top ten composite recruiter in the
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: new world of college football where you do a hybrid
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: of high school in Porta dang. Right, and pet Peach
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: got Louisville on a neutral field game one, ls SH
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: at home Game three, and at Florida, who I think
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: will be fastly improved under summer all game four. Those
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: aren't like what Kivin has been able to start out with.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: I mean two years ago they had a bunch of
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Division three teams I feel like to start the years.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: But Kiff had even said it a couple of months
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: ago in an interview, He's like, our non conference scheduling
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: at Ole Miss was incredible because he's not just thrilled
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: about opening with Clemson even though it's at home, right, So.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: Okay, all right, yeah, and then let's not even we
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: don't even need to go into Texas, Auburn, Georgia, Oklahoma
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: all in a row for Old Miss too, right after
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: that gonna be a fun ride.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Well, and it's not close to the schedule that Lane
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: pulled the last year.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Lane arguably had the best SEC non SEC plus non
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: conference in his favor for the last four years or right, Yeah,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: I mean it wasn't. It wasn't last year. I mean
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: it's like his entire ten uere that he was there.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: It was really really good and he, you know, credit him,
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: he took advantage of absolutely, right, he took advantage of it.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: And yeah he was. He was plus one game coach
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: effect for the last since twenty ten, including USC and Tennessee.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: He's plus one game a year and that's not just
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: factoring only in the FAU ol MISS. So he took
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: advantage of it. And his best year is twenty twenty
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: three is plus three games. And we'll have more on Lane.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll cover LSU before we leave the building.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: Do it when you look at something like Mississippi State
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: and Missouri. So I think Missouri has been, you know,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: a good story, but they hadn't been that good. But
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Drink's been winning. Not quite at Lane's level, I don't
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: feel like, but I could be wrong, but he's been
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: winning and much higher level than they have in the past.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: Outside of Pinkele. So Mississippi State hosting Missouri now, they're
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: another one that's done some really good things in the portal.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: They're not quite old miss Hot or Mario in Miami,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: a couple others, but man, they they've done a good job.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: When you look at talent. Of course, head coach favors
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Drink and he has boat raced Levy the last two years.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: I mean he they beat them like a dog in
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: year one and then came back last year piggyback off
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: of Bar two's rushing numbers. That he started the whole
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: segment with a modd hardy rush for over three hundred yards.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: I didn't even know that was possible by himself. That happened. Yes,
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: you were actually here on the Monday when I talked
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: about it. I remember that now.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, probably one of those games you just drank
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: yourself till you blacked out to try to forget it.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he put up three. I think it was like three.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Will you look it up? A'm odd hardy from Mississippi.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: I think he put up like three oh four, three
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: oh six, three oh eight against Mississippi State last year.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: It was on everybody in the stadium, Okay, even kids
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: that were three years old who knew that they were
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: going to run the ball and they couldn't get lined
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: up right Under Coleman Hudson, winy five carries three and
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: three tonies, okay, including a seventy two yard and a
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: forty three yarder. Yeah. Casually, Yeah, that's just Coleman Hutsler
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: getting take It. Doesn't matter what your personnel is. You
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: should be able to stop someone from rushing for three
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: hundred yards in a conference game. You gotta recruit defensive
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: players to do that. You think that ever happened under
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Dan Bullen and he was an offensive mining coach too, Yeah.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: Something might have got fired up.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: He would have ran out there and tackled himself. Yeah
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: that's you damn right the way.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And by the way, Dan coach at the time,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: win a lot of these teams. Bar Two's referencing stacked
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: two and three D. It's not happening as much at
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Georgia Baman LSU and as it was just a couple
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: of years ago with the fractured splinter portal doing its
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: deal right right.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know. Interesting note about Dan Uh. We were
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: texting back and forth and Uh with the new coach
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: effect numbers and his coach effect, I broke it out
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: by where he was. His coach effect at Florida in
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: his four years there was actually better than his coach
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: effect a Mississippi State, and his first year at UNLB
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: was better than his last than his.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: Four years at Florida. Yea.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: He is the only since twenty ten with coach effect.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: He is the only head coach to have three consecutive
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: positive stops really free consecutive positive stop. Now obviously UNLV
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: was one year, right, but he's the only one to
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: do three consecutive positive stops, and he is one of
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: only two guys to have three consecutive increases, the other
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: one Lane Kiffin.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Wow, both who coached here in the state of Mississippi. Wow.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: And Dan's the best ever at Mississippi date and Kiffin's
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: the best ever at Ole, miss incredible. Wow, okay, special,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: that's pretty cool. You know Mullen did it three consecutive times.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State, Florida and UNLV won ten last year.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: Oh, he's badass last year.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I couldn't.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Believe it is funny. He texts me. He's like, I
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: don't know what this means, but makes me look pretty good.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: Dan has never been a numbers guy.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: To be as successful as he has.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: Oh, he's just a damn good He is a really
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: really good football coach. He just he just is. And
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: I think he is under I think he's underrated, and
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: I think he's underappreciated, uh for what he's done for
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: college football?
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: Who is? Who is another guy that profiles like Dan?
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: The profiles like Dan? Oh, I will have.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: To look Bar two on the Out of It on
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: show brought to you by Our Riba at Philip EM's Steakhouse,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Saffron Chowder. Pair it with and Elijah Craig Old Fashion,
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: and we're talking fun numbers. In the SEC We've hit
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: almost every school tied them in some way, shape or form,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: which is fun and the one takeaway that we all
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: already knew, but Ur two did more of a deep
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: dive week two and week three for Jeff Levy. Are
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: I mean at Minnesota at South Carolina? Can you split?
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: If you can split, you're still alive when you go
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: home to play Missouri. If you don't and you go
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: zero to two, it's going to be at that point
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: you'll have nine games left. Okay, you have one win.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: You got to try to go five and four maybe
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: to save your job on the way out. With all us,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: it'll be all SEC opponents except Tennessee Tech, Tennessee Something,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, and so it is Tennessee Tech.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: Make sure I got this ray? Yeah? Who does Missouri play?
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: Are they challenged at all? Before Mississippi State, Arkansas, Pine
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Bluff at Kansas and Troy at home? That's not terrible
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: for Drink to get his team warmed up. You take that,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: you know before going to starboard again. Drink is abused
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: about multiple touchdowns each game m s u and and
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Levy the last two years at home and in Columbia. Uh,
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: what did I just ask you? I totally forgot what
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: was that? What did I ask Bart too?
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: We were talking about coach effect? Well who what? What?
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Who is like mullet who profiles like Mullet who uh.
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: Here I did once, I did all the coach effects.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: I did ask it. You're an ad. Who's on your
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: hot seat?
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: Oh? Nice?
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: Jeff number one, Well he's he's he's number one in
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: the league.
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: He's no, he doesn't have Levon here because he's only
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: two years in.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: Oh okay, he's.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: Only two years in. He's got Beamer with one flame though.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: Oh okay, he's got Beamer with one flame, but then
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: the hottest three flames. No shock either. Mike Norbell, Oh yeah, yeah,
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: career positive coach minus four point eight two two year collapse,
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: biggest fall in the power for.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, so Mike Norvel, good lord hay, everything that could
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: have gone. When his quarterback got hurt three years ago
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: and they were undefeated and they were going to the
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: college football Playoff, it was like no recovery since they
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: were eleven and oh yeah they were unfeed right when
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: he got hurt something like that. Oh yeah. So Dan
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: Mullen is an absolute beast at Mississippi State Florida, and
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: in his first year at UNLV won won ten games,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: which well, you know, he's good. I mean, they got
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: to I would think he'll regress, but I don't. I don't,
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, No, I mean I thought
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: he boys Boise was their kryptonite. But didn't they get
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: they got him twice. Didn't they get a quarterback? He
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: got Jackson Arnold who was at Oklahoma and Auburn. Now
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: we'll go see if Dan. Dan doesn't put up with
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of bs. Pretty much, actually, Dan doesn't put
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: up with really any bs. There's I don't know if
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: this is fair unfair, but there's you know, taught that
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: maybe Jackson Arnold's difficult, he won't he won't be difficult
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: wall or he'll be gone, right.
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, if there's one person that would draw the
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: most out of you, that's right.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: I would trust him. Is because I bet Dan laid
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: the law down. Hey, we're not coming in as the
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: Prima donna, all right. Jackson Arnold transferred to UNLB. He's
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: got some skills and for that league, oh dude, I
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: can smoke Mountain West or whack. I don't know what
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: the hell it is, but I mean, for that league.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a thirty four year old playing in the Mountain Glass.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess he's on his YU. Yeah, right, Mullen.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: So, Dan, look at his career averages. Okay, and and
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: keep in mind, this is even the bad years Mississippi State.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: They didn't get number one overnight. Okay. So his entire career,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: every single game he has coached, he is plus point
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: seven games coach effects. So he is almost a full
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: game for his entire career. Now his war wins above replacement.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: He is at forty three point one okay. Lane Kiffin
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: is at forty three point six for his career. James
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: frank is at fifty point one. What Okay, his standard
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: deviation which means his difference in range, right, So, so
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: his high to is low. What's the ceiling, what's his floor?
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: His standard deviation is one point five to four. James
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: Franklin is one point sixty five.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Damn.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: Dan Mullen and James Franklin's career almost exactly the same.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: And Franklin had more talent and was the second or
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: third most talented team in the Big ten years outside
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: of Ohio State, and he and Michigan were almost to
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: push one hundred percent of his career. Now, Bandy, I
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: give him credit at Bandy, what he did was filthy.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: It's different filthy, Right, Wow, he wasn't that great at
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: Penn State. I mean, if he was Bandy, if he
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: was Vandy at Penn State, he didn't won a national title, sure.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: Right, okay, right, you know, think about what he did
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: at Vanderbilt for like three seasons in a row. It
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: was ridiculous.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, So Dan his closest statistical twins James Franklin.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: This will surprise you, okay, Okay, Brian Harson.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's president.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: That does surprise me, right, because recency bias, because he
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: sucked at Auburn. Everybody hated him, right, right, But he
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: was really really good at Boise. He got it, okay,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: and he's been good since then. He was good last year.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: Where was he?
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: Uh you tossed?
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Okay, right, So he's back in the game, and evidently
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: he threw up some wins Lincoln Hiley and test really
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: now hey, Southern col in the PAC twelve and then
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: going also going to the Big ten, they're still a way,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: way way well in the Pac twelve is bar two
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: knows their number one or Oregon whatever, and so he
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: was and then in the Big ten he's in the.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: Top four right lane, number four lane Kiffin. Wow. Really
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: we're talking body of work, right, whole body of work
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: Tennessee USC fau ole miss his coach effects better, Okay,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: his coach effect Lane, Lane's coach effect.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: But he's also been at Southern Cal Yep, but it
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: and O miss this is this a justin for talent? Yeah?
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: Adjustin for talent? Okay, okay, so Lane, Yeah. And then
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: the other one is Jason Kandall new head coach at
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: Yukon but couldn't get out of Toledo, who just ironically
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: beat Levy two years ago.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: He beat Levy by twenty three or twenty six points
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: at home in year one. I remember seeing that score
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: and people wanted to People wanted to say it was
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: because of nil for Levy. I'm like, guys, don't go there.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: No, there was no. There was excuse level zero, that's right, yeah.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and losing to Arkansas by thirty that year, yeah, yep,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: excuse levels yeah.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: So here here's the write up on it. It says
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: James Franklin is Mullen's near perfect statistical twins closest match
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: in the entire data set. Coach effect standard deviation best
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: year worst year fifteen thirteen to fifteen seasoned veterans. Two
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: coaches who are reliably good, not great, year over year,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: swing year to year, rack up big wins above replacement
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: through longevity. If you like Mullin, you're describing Franklin and
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: vice versa, which makes it fitting that Franklin took the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: Virginia Tech job. Same proven but streaky bet.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: I'll be interested to see what Franklin can do. Not
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: having the Penn State.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: Well, this year is going I think they're gonna bead.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: They're not gonna be good this year because offensive coordinator Okay, yeah,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: next man up, you know, been with me a long time,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: earned his stripes.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Sounds like data, Yeah, called he called.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: Plays for a couple of years at the FCS and
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: sucked at it. Okay, kind of like the new Oregon
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: off ensive coordinator who's the lowest graded offensive coordinator in
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: the Big Ten?
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Is he really?
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: So?
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: You went from Will Stein? I don't know where will
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: was ranked, but top half really really good, okay, really
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: really good, really really good. Will Stein is now the
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: head coach at Kentucky. They go from that to the
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: to an OC that's ranked dead last in the Big Ten.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: Like that's Northwestern.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Everything. Yeah, teams that aren't supposed to win. Rutgers what
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: oh wow, it's going to be interesting, right because the
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: Duck's new offensive coordinator has only one year of experience.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: It was it.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: Rutgers, Okay, missive State, so high.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: And but but it was horrific, like last two years
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: of Mississippi State defense, horrific at run Okay, so and
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: he's been the tight end coach at Oregon and he
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: was given next man up to run the offense. And
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: Dante more there has and we all know Oregon is
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: one of the top three talked about teams to win
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: it all this year. There has never in this century
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: been a O C or DC with his kind of
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: grade even sniffing a title. So either Dante Moore he
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: can put this guy on his back and carry him
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: for sixteen games, or I'm going Ducks plus three fifty
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: to not make the playoffs like that.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: And Dante Moores, hey, he would have gone in the
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: top five last How bad?
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: What bad?
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: How bad do you think he screwed up by doing that?
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: Okay, if if if he was my kid, yeah right,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: I'd have been honest, My honest opinion would have been, Son,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: you are a walking lottery ticket. And in this family,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: we don't keep lottery tickets in our pockets. We cash them, right,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: And it's not to say you can't be Look, I
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: believe the Imber say coming back and getting more snaps
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: at Oregon really really helps his ability to be successful
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: in the NFL. Sure, look at Justin Herbert. You know
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: he stayed there his entire time, could have been drafted earlier.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: Blah blah blah blah.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: But but more, not only is he not cashing the
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: ticket risking injury, his offensive coordinator may drag him down
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: and make him look bad. Uh, And he is in
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: a draft class where there are a ton of names
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: that are just looking for somebody like him to fall financially.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Might be the most brutal decision we ever see. Agree
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: if the offense, if he can't carry the offense, he
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: is going to look Ken Simonton bad and just plumme it.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: Can he get any better? Was there an upside to this? Like? Can?
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: There's? What's the uside?
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: There is? Because he got.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: The only upside, he would have gone second this year, right, yes,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: arms The only conceivable upside to me is one more
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: year of having fun as a college quarterback speaking in
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: the NFL and becoming and learning enough at college taking
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: up snap to be good. But no, no, no, there's.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: No he's not.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: He's not gonna be good in the NFL. No, because
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: what if I always said you don't draft guys from
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: elite programs because because they don't have to carry the bags?
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: Man? You so?
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah? Dan?
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: Dan? And James James Franklin do you do you want
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: to do another one? You want to do another one?
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: Who? Who? Who would be a fun one?
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: All right, let's do John Summer all? Or does he
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: does he have enough years to at Troy to it
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: too late?
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: He? He does? But okay, we're not gonna like this comparisons.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: Who is John Summer? All? Closest to the problem is John? See,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: these are numbers based on It's not based on being
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: in the SEC or anything like that. It's talent based.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: But John's numbers in the G six are freaking amazing.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: He wanted the Mississippi state job, by the way, three
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: years ago he was and there was a twenty four
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: to forty eight hour window where he thought he had it.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: Go ahead, Bard too, he could have got Signetty too. Yeah, Eddy,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: he would have taken the job.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so so look, some are all has the number
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: four coach effect of all coaches ince twenty ten?
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: Right, what.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: Damn coach effect not wins above replacement? He's only been
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: doing it for four years. Okay, he doesn't have Saban's
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: longevity kind of thing, right, or or Davos all right?
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: But his right now, his coach effect is plus three
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: points seven games a year, right, which you think about it?
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: Jeff was minus four games in twenty twenty four. Troy
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: was plus five one three then plus four five seven. Dude,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: do you understand Troy had back to back top ten defenses?
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: What top ten?
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: What scoring efficiency? Right?
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: The guy was fantastical?
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: Right. His worst season is plus one point one six games.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: His worst season is plus one game above, which is good. Right.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: His worst season would be like him going six and
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: no six and six this year an all miss. That'd
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: be like his worst season seven and five. Right. So
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: his true peer group in the in the G five
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: is Bobby Chesney now at U c l A, Brian
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: Newberry at Navy, Spencer Danielson a Boise And it's not
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: even now, Spencer, No, he's not even good enough. The
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: only powerful, active guy even close to him right now
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: four years, four years big coach effect is Kurt signetty Wow,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: told you wouldn't like it, or at least make you go, oh, look,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: I know it's caveat it. He hasn't been in the SEC,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: right right, Sure, I get it.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: But now he had this is I think a benefit
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: he has coached in the SEC at Kentucky as an assistant.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: I think, yeah, right right, and he's coached with Brad White,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: who's now his defensive coordinator. And how many have we've
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: given Brad White love on this show?
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: Big time?
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: And then because Brad won half of Stoop's freaking games
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: because Stoops couldn't hire a coordinator to get him above
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: sixteen damn points. But and the thing is also with
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: Summer all because a lot of people go, well, he's
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: the same things as Billy Napier. Well Billy only did
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: at one spot. Right. We didn't know if it was
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: portable or not, right, It wasn't clearly not portable right
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: right now, when you look at guys that had great,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: great G five success and then crashed power for Scott Cross, Oh, Scott, Scott,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: Scott Scott is uh, that was just the first. Yeah,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: the number one. In fact, the UH if you take
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: all the teams, if you take all the positive and
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: nega coaching effect over the last ten years, all FBS teams,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: the lowest composite negative coach effect over the last ten
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: years is Nebraska, literally the most underperforming program in the
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: entire country in the last ten years.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: Huskers, Damn what they're doing up there? Larry the cable
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: guys not going to be happy day bar two on
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: the Out of Bound Show, brought to you by Ice Cold,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: Michelobultra and Wings for the Win. We're having a great
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: time here. Uh, just b essen about coach effect. I
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: love the war too. I like that you redid coach
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: effect and I love the war thing because people have
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: loved war in baseball forever. And then when fantasy baseball
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: and war, it just came sootball.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: How about the UH the instead of the last ten years,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: how about the last five years? The Whiskey sixty one
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: lowest performing program over the last five years. In Power for.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: Football, UCLA Mississippi State, No.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: A lot more talent. Who in the SEC just makes
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: you go A yeah.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: Auburn, Gosh, Harson and Freeze.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: Just and Freeze was only minus point eighty seven. Harrison
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: just just smoked it. Harson was just that.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: Was it's going to be interesting to see if they
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: should have, you know, just pulled the belt tight on
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: the waist and said, you know, DJ is it looks
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: like dj is really really good on one side of
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: the ball. This is the weirdest thing in the world.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: Whatever happened to Hugh on offense, But because of what
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: he did at on this and Liberty were good, We're
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: gonna We're gonna do this one more time.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: But right couldn't do it then. Look at so I
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: just pulled the list of I asked that to pull
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: me the list of the biggest boom to busts Okay,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: Sadderfield plus three point two five games at app State,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: minus point five to six in the Power four. Now
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: at Cincinnati. Okay, Billy plus oh plus three games at
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: G five right now, can consider uh some Rull's done
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: it at two places and he's a plus three point
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: sixty seven. Okay, So Billy's plus three minus one and
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: a half at Florida, huge drop off. Wo Darryl Hazel
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: really good at ken State, horrible at Perdue. Matt wells,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: I mean Perdue. Yeah, I know, I know, brutal. Other
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: than Joe Tiller, I know, I Drew Brees the biggest
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: disappointment so far. I think we'd agree. Uh. And I
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: call these guys outliers because we have a lot of guys,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: most guys that are really high at the at the
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: group of five, group of six, don't crash, I just don't.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: These are really anominalies. Hugh going from plus four at
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: Liberty to better than minus one at Auburn is, you know, unbelievable, Harson, unbelievable, Soaderfield,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: Billy Napier, And then you know one and another guy
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: who's on the super hot seat right now, dude, how
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: good was Mike Norvella Memphis? Right? Yeah, wasn't he just
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: smoking it? And then you have Scott Frost.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: There's number one or up there.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: Frost was the biggest disaster of all and it's not
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: even close. So his his his time at UCF, he
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: was almost plus five games a year.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: At Nebraska he was worse than minus two day what
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: what I mean? He was basically he was basically Bill Snyder. Yeah,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean it the blood read for Okay,
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: here here here it is for you. You love this. Scott
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: Frost is the poster child for how misleading a single
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: spectacular as it could be.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: Well, and we see that bar two like sham. Pittman
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: jumped up in one nine games. Yeah uh, and then
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: it was just a matter then they had to re
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: up him.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: Look look right here in your backyard, good old Larry Fedora. Yeah, dude,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: he smoked that one parlad it into North Carolina, had
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: three crappy years, had a huge top twenty five year.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: They renew him for another four and he does the
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: same thing again, right, I mean, you want to talk
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: about one hit wonders you know.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: Made a fortune rich, Wow, I love it. Larry Fedora,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss and No One one big season at each
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: And that's what you got to think about. Like Pittman
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: jumped up in one nine, Beamer jumped up in one
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: nine or ten two years ago. But and eighties automatically
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: renew him. Yeah, but you don't have to do that
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: now with them. By jumping you don't have to have
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: a coach where you have to say he's got a
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: five year deal, a four year deal. But like would
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: you renew Jeff Levy if he goes six and six. No,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: you shouldn't know you, I mean, maybe maybe you keep him.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: What's the benefit. What's the benefit of reupping it? And
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: they just paid work?
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not well it's money. Well, I mean, the
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: problem is what they had to pay Sam Pittman and
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: what they had to pay some of these other guys
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: at Fedora, North Carolina. The problem is when they have
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: that one season, then you re up them, and then
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: you fire them two years later, you're still on the
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: hook for a bunch of dough. So all right, uh,
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: Dave Bar two on the Out of Bounds Show brought
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: to you by Pearl River Resort and Philip M's Steakhouse. Yeah,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: Championship golf at Dancing Rabbit Golf Club and the bon
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: and Rabbi Philip ems is fabulous saffron chowder. We'll sit
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: in the bar. It's gonna be great looking forward to that.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: Also the steaks and kessel prim Bar two is going
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: to get some of that to tonight, so that'll be
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: that'll be great. All right, Where do we want to
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: go from here? Let's see war I had a question
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: here we.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: Well, there's there's places we can go, right, I mean,
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: we got Golish and Venables and Clark Lee and I
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: mean there's just we got a lot and we're gonna
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: cover this in shows later too.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: Now, let's I want to look at Old Miss at Florida.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: Can we do that? Or is that? Is that too
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: far off the beaten path? Okay? I just or do
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: we go ahead and do the Old Miss l s
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: U super deep dive or do we go Florida since
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: it's the game after we know Bar two is going
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: to be on huh deep dive tomorrow? Okay? All right, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: we can deep dive live. That'll be good.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: All right, Which way we're going?
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: What do you think?
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: Well, Mississippi State and ole Miss play Auburn and now
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: it's Golish. Should we do that and and frame that
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: up because Levee should have a chance to win. I mean,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: the way I see had Auburned sixty percent chance to
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: win Mississippi State forty when I mean that's roughs far
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: two may like run those numbers a week of it,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: maybe fifty seven to forty three. Whatever. My point in
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: that is, it's still a winnable game at home for Levy.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: It's not like Auburn is mauson seven years, eight years
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: ago where they were.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: And it's not like Goalish has really done anything. I mean,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: he had, he had, he had, he had one good year.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: He had two negative coach effected years and a positive one. Okay,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, you look at his profile and
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: at South Florida and his first year actually, you know,
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: I'll give it to him. His first year he was
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: he was minus point eight four, so he was minus
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: one game, six and six. Next year he was six
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: and six, minus one game. And last year he was
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: plus two games. But he didn't beat any but the
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: last year that he didn't out recruit. I got you, right,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: you know. And then you take a look at his
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: his ability to generate momentum in a game. If he
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: doesn't have peak momentum in a game, he's fifteen fifteen
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: fifteen fifteen, right, And so his career coach effect after
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: three games uh is plus point twenty four. So he
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: is since twenty ten. Remember with three years now, he's
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: qualified right to be in the in the in the
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: in the look at.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: It so far, listeners. He was the head coach at
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: South Florida for the Bulls for three years and basically
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: he was pretty just yeah, not not awesome, not terrible. Yeah,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: he is a job.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: He's forty fifth percentile of all head coaches since twenty ten.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: Uh and his current coach effect ranks him seventy four
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: out of one nineteen, so thirty eighth percentile, so below average.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: Right now, his floor is a negative one game. His
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: ceiling is plus two. And so you look at his
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: projected wins now, his projected wins. It's his first year.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: And the hardest move in college football is G six
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: head coach to power fore head coach. Okay, okay, the
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: easiest one is the opposite way is Dan going from
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: Florida to UNLB. Guys that go out of the Power
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: four are usually who they're going to be right out
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: of the gate. Okay. The guys going from Alex Golis
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: from South Florida to Auburn. Ye, take away a game,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: just like that. Take away a game from everybody, John
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: Summer all take away a game. Okay. So you look
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: at Alex and his projection with his with his coach
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: effect is six point eight wins. But we got to
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: take one away for it being the first year. So
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: it's five point eight now the market line is six
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: and a half. That's the over under. That's the total
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: on Auburn right now. That was that was fan duel
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: and or DraftKings as of a couple of weeks ago. Okay,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: so we're at six and a half. The projection is
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: six point eight, so it's right on it. But you
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: take one away for it being his first year. Now,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: you may say, depending on how you analyze it, if
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: this is something you want to bet, you go, you know,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: I bringing over a quarterback? You know what did he
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: bring from South Florida? Brown start round store, right and
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: everybody loves them, right, So maybe that makes up for it, right, right,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: But it still tells me we're straddling between six and
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: seven wins. It projects the most likely number for him
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: is six and six. The next most likely number is
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: five and seven at twenty four percent, and then seven
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: and five at nineteen percent. So the Brown might be
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: worth one more game. But so far in his career
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: we got two down and one up in terms of
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: coach effecting. Overall, that averages out to be a pretty
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: Sheene beamersh head coach right now.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: Oh wow? Okay, so there you go. Alex Golish is, Yeah,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: but he didn't do anything remarkable. Jackson in South Florida.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he had a really good year life.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: So by the way, Florida has to go all right,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: so you're talking about summer roll, you're talking about Golish.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: Florida has to go to Auburn week three. So you
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: got summer all you got the two G five guys
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: who just made the jump to Power four week three
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: at Auburn, Florida at Auburn.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. And if you look at at Golish, he
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: is let me look at these numbers here for him.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: There was something that I found that was remarkably interesting
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: with Goalish versus Hypel, depending on what point of the
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: game it was at. So fourth quarter, so Hypel in
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: the and these are all close games, right third down?
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: Hypel passed one hundred percent of the time on third
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: down and more than eight but then flips it to
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: under sixty seven percent. It's it's the it's the it's
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: the passing. This is what's interesting because we talked about
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: your better offensive coordinators running and passing and so forth,
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: and Goalish is just way more aggressive on fourth down
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: and passing on lower yardage downs.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: I wonder if he'll be more conservative in the SEC
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: or maybe Brown's that good, or maybe he'll just continue
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: to like you know what.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: If it's Brown, right, right, So it's it's gonna be
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: interesting again.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: That and it also you're talking about where the runner passed.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: How much autonomy does the coach give the player to
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: go the line of scrimmage and figure out if the
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: box is loaded or if it's a light box. And
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: you got to you know a lot of times guys
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: have a run in a pass play and what is
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: that quarterback like, what is his tendency to does he
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: want to make the box favor him whichever way that is?
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, there's all sorts of variables and things.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: Going on, right, But look at the look at the
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: goalish balance though, right, so once you hit look at
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: these look at these numbers though, Golish and hypel Uh.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: Since we're since we're on Auburn and sticking in the sec.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: Third and nine last year rush rate or I should
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: go the other way? Should go pass rate? Okay, Josh
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: passed eighty nine percent of the time on third and nine,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: Goalish only seventy one percent of the time third and ten. Uh,
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: Josh always passed third and eleven. Josh always passed third
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: and twelve. Josh always passed goalish And this is Brown, right,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm guessing Brown can run a third
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: of the time on third and ten, ran the football
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: with the quarterback third of the time, third and eleven
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: quarterback third of the time, third and twelve quarterback or
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: a draw. So Goalish is a lot less predictable last
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: year than Hypel was now. Hypel may have the ultimate
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: eraser in terms of talent with that running back right, So,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: to me, million dollar question is Brown the speed of
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: the SEC? How quickly can they adapt? Alex in twenty
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: twenty five was much less predictable and much more aggy
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: of than Josh was. Will that carry over into the SEC?
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: And Tennessee fans are frustrated with Hypel, which is shut up, shut,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: I mean he's done it.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: Getting who you getting? Who you get? Who's better?
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: OC? That's that's that's a great question. Who can you
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: actually go get that's better?
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: And you're also firing your new defensive coordinator you paid
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: a fortune to help win a.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: National Jim Leonard No, uh no, the guy that you
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: state at State. Yeah Knowles yeah, Jim Jim Knowles, So
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: you get rid of that too, So you got what
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: you So now I don't think he is that great
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: because his defenses are highly complex and it takes about.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: Three or four years for everybody to catch up to him.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: And he got a little lucky at Oklahoma State because basically,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: as a starting defensive eleven was six year COVID seniors
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: and they've been in his system forever. So yeah, he
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: had a five defense, but there's a little special circumstance
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: to put all of that together. But again, when you're
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: getting rid of Hypel the head coach, you're getting ready
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: of Hypel the play caller, and he's a national championship
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: level play caller for his career in my opinion, and
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: you have Knowles who's good, not great, but still really
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: good and inside the numbers. One of the things that
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: we have been seeing is it's very very consistent. The
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: more turnover you have, the harder it buries your program.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: At some point you have to just shut up and
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: eat it and let the guy cook for a while,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: just to bring some stability, you know, like a stoops
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: at Kentucky. Look, he did a good job with talent,
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: but he never really coached about the talent his entire career, right,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: But they were churning through guys. You just had to say,
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: we've got to hit the brakes and just balance this.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: So that's another thing is we were just talking about
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: what if Jeff goes five and seven, six and six,
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: can you get rid of him? Sure you can, but
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: that would make what fifth head coach in seven six years,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: seven years, eight years? Stand right? I mean, we can't
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: get into this cycle.
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: But if you know that you can't get it done,
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: you we got to cut the cord.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: So so what's your line in the sand? Six and
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: six minimum?
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: I would think six and six, But but I'm I
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: also lean that he needs to go seven and five
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: to retain his to to get another.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: Year okay and done anything that should say we should
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: keep him and done anything.
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: Well, No, he's seven and eighteen overall and one in
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: fifteen in conference play, and that's a that's against an
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: interim coach, and Bobby Petrino in Arkansas last year that
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: was you know, So that's that's that's where we are.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: If I was, if you were, if you're a head coach,
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: and and I was an afflic writer and I walked
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: in and said to you, Bar two, I want you
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: to fire Peak Kaikowski and hire Will mus Champ. What
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: would you.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: Say, are you cutting the check?
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: I mean I oh man, that one hurts.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: We're talking about Texas defensive coordinator was fired by Sark
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: and Sark hired Will mus Champ, who's a bigger name,
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: especially in this area. And I think the common fan
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: believes must Champs better than Kaikowski because they can't pronounce
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: his name, and they they have it. They didn't know
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: anything about him. Ar two, go ahead, I said, Dave,
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: I really feel strongly that we need to fire Peak
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: Kaikowski and hire Will must champus DC.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: Actually, that is a good little curveball you threw at
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: me because I have the defensive coordinator grades in here
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: since twenty ten. When did must Champ last call plays?
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: Now, that's a good question. Did he call plays for
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: a year or so with Kirby? Prior to that he
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: was the South Carolina head coach. Prior to that he
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: was the Florida head coach. I think he was the
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: Auburn in Texas DC for a window before going on
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: as head coaching deal. Yeah, Texas and Auburn or Auburn
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: in Texas, and then got the Florida job fired, got
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: the South Carolina fired, and then Kirby hired him at Georgia.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: He was in house on the field, and then I
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: think back in house or something. It's a good question.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: I think there was one year with Georgia, but maybe
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: that's just as much Kirby as it is, you know,
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: mus Sham. I mean, obviously you've talked about how Kirby's
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: number one along with Venables and I think Kayakowski since
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: two thousand.
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, kayak Kowski. Look, Pete was with Chriss. A lot
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: of people don't know his background.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: It was with Chrispy at Washington, not a Boise in Washington, Washington.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: I knew he was there at Washington.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: And he got to Washington in that defense that there's
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: a reason the defense went to the d and the
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: players drafted. We were incredible, and he did it everywhere, right,
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was, it was, it was at Boise,
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: it was at Washington, and I've always felt I remember
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: I remember seeing his numbers and it reminded me of
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: Dave Randa, And when Dave Randa went to L s U,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: I was like Okay, Dave Randa is going to leave
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: with the national title at LSU because of l s
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: u's talent. Sure, right, I mean it's just naturally there
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: in the state and at that program.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: And Dave was able to do that, not so much
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: head coach, but good DC, great DC. And kaya Kowski
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: when he went to Texas, I'm like, wow, is he
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: good enough to overcome sark being an average head coach? Okay,
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: because oh, while we're on the subject of coach effect,
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: Steve sarkisian eleven seasons, zero point zero six coach effects.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, of course he's you want to.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: Talk about you want to actually Steve and and and
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: Shane Beemer look almost the same on paper in terms
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: of their effect on time.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: So basically, Start coached at Washington Southern call in Texas
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: where he had the better talent majority of the time,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: and he doesn't take advantage of it.
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: No, in fact, without the last couple of years at Texas,
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: which has been really good years. Right, he's he's he's
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: like minus one. He's bad, just not good at all.
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: And and I did I thought I thought Kaye Kowski
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: could overcome him, and kay Kowski was carrying it. This
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: is this is a Texas is a program that has
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: re gress it's offensive scoring efficiency every year for three years,
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: and the defense is what has been winning football games
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, at least on paper. But then Steve
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: came out and said, oh, I'm having to do too
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: much running the offense and the defense or something like that.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: Oh that's why he did say something, right, He totally
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: threw him under the bus. And then I was like, oh,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: Lincoln Riley, here's your opportunity.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: Oh that would have been that would have been filthy.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: It would have been Lincoln waving glorious. But then he
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: goes out Southern hires.
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: Gary Patterson has been falling naked through broken glass for
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: ten years trying to get a job and finally got
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: somebody to buy.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. Gary Patterson, who is at TCU forever,
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: is back as a DC for Lincoln Riley. And Kait
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: Kowski's at the beach and nobody.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think kay Kowski's in the NFL, no kidding, yep, yeah,
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: yeah he is, And I think he is in. I
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: think he's at Arizona, all right, just some random one. Well,
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, look at the defensive coordinator Simmons at Smu
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: went to be a linebacker the Cowboys and that guy
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: was wicked good too. But Pete Kaitkowski excellent, excellent defensive
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: coordinator did it? I mean he posted top five scoring
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: efficiency defenses at Boise, at Washington, and at Texas. I'd
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: love to know how many guys have done it three
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: different places.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: Will Muscheff has it well? I don't think.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: Oh, let me see, okay, let me see if I
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: can find must Champ. I found the grades. They're right here.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: Do you know when Muschamp was last a d C?
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: When he last called? It had to be like Texas
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: in two thousand and something under mac Brown we left,
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: Unless you want to give him that Georgia year where
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: he came out of the booth or out of being
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: an analyst. I think he was a d C in
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: between Landing and Schumann maybe for a year.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: Hard to say.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: It is hard to save with Kirby smart it was.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, it's a huge downgrade. Okay, it's a
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: huge dograde. Uh yeah. He may have been part of
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: the Texas national title right, but technically.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: He was there at five.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: I don't think he was, wasn't he?
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: No? No much Champ when it was when Ben Young
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: and them won it, I thought all.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: I thought all the Hulla blue was about him winning
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: the national title.
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: No, he was with Saban. Yeah, as as to me
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: the d C and title he was with. What got
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: him hot is he was part of that young group
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: that was with Saban at l s U. He was
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: on the two thousand and three National championship team, and
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: I think he was d C. But I think Saban
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: was running with d C from yeah, from O two
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: to four, and then he went to Miami with him
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: and as yeah, okay, No, then then then Mike Brown
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: hired him as a DC.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: Yes, uh, that was mac getting fired years though Auburn.
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 3: And then he had one year or two years of
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 3: Texas and then he had another back at Auburn in fifteen. No,
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 3: but but we're talking about after five after the Dolphins. Yeah,
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: it went six o seven, he was at Auburn. Yeah,
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: eight to ten he was at Texas, Okay, and then
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 3: he gets the Florida job, right, Okay. Then he goes
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: to Auburn back for one more year twenty fifteen. Right
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 3: South Carolina sixteen to twenty.
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: I guess that was Malson. It was Malson. Yeah, twenty fifteen.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: He was the DC at Auburn that season. I know
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: Mullin beat him. I can remember being at Turquoise Place.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: It was a boarding game. Mullen took the air out
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: of the ball and doc In them won like seventeen
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: to nine. He went down on the planes and beat them. Yeah,
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: I'd forgotten that. I guess Will did a pretty good
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: job that night. Court. Dan wasn't gonna I think Dan
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: knew they couldn't score, and which was weird. Malzon had
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: a guy who looked like he should be at Wofford
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: playing quarterback. He was kind of built like hypel Oh
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: the white guy. Yeah, oh what was it? Yeah, I
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: can see him. I can remember that anyway, Yes, Sean White.
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: He wasn't after I couldn't figure it out. He didn't
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: he didn't really have an arm, and he wasn't athletic,
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: and he couldn't run. It was like, I'm proud. I mean,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not an evaluator, but those are kind of checks.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: I'm like, well, okay, so he doesn't really do what
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: does he do? Right? But Nolson chased him or got him,
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know what. Yeah, he looked like he was
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: like five eleven, a little chubby. He well, he claimed
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: he was six one fifteen. Yeah he was. I felt
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: like he was thick like Baker Mayfield and Hypel when
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: they played. Yeah, kind of built like a refrigerator. Fat,
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: but almost like Hypel is. Now. No, Hypel's put on
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: some bees. Now he's making nine man a year. He's like,
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: I'm good. Mom's cooking good food at home.
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: I mean I've been stress.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, dudet least he still wears a collar shirt on
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: the sidelines. Oh wow, Shots fired, bar two on the
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: Out of Bound Show, brought to you by Pearl River Resort.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna wrap it up here. We've been listen,
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: we knocked out ninety minutes. That's now. I want to
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: hit one more thing on the way out. I don't
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: really care what. Uh. I love the war. We're gonna
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: be on, you know, live the next two days. Gonna
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: be great ton of fun. I don't have any confidence
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: in Levy. I think you said he's eighty fourth of one,
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: one hundred and eleven.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, really good job out of Shane is eighty four Shane.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: I gotta put Shane right there, and then what what what?
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: What was Uh? All right?
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: So Jeff Levy is ranked one hundred and eleventh of
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: one hundred and nineteen coaches that I guess have coached
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: two or more years.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: Clark Lee's ninety third.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 4: Clark Lee, what a legend to somehow figure out Larry
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 4: Fedora give it to him. He he somebody or maybe
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 4: it was his Maybe he woke up, looked in the
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 4: mirror shaving. I'm gonna go hire Jerry Kill and is
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 4: OC and they're gonna bring Diego Pavio with them, and
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 4: we're gonna win a bunch of games, and I'm gonna
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 4: get a fat new contract.
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: I'm brilliant. And I would have to believe that their
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: their glory days are behind them. Maybe not, but we'll see.
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: Oh didn't they pay well? They got the they got
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: the quarterback. He's a freshman, freshman, they flipped him from Georgia.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I would think he's a long way
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: Ah yeah, you know, or at least next year at
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: the earliest. Men to have people around him too, right.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they've done, but clark Lee Motors
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: was able to Is there inn il public? No, it's
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: their private institutions. And they have plenty of money. So
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: if they only said if they wanted to get going,
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: and Nashville's a cool metropolitan hub, kids want to live there.
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: So you marry in the fact that there's an NFL
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: stadium five minutes from Vanderbilt's campus. You got some good
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: things going. But Clark Lee's not going to go over
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: there and keep winning like that. It's not going to happen.
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: It shouldn't and the regression to what he was before
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: could be really painful, you know, because of all I mean,
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 2: look at his his worst season was was just was
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: his best was last year right, they went by far
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: right and his second best, by far was the year
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: before both with Pavia. Now, Jerry Kill, I'd probably say
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: is the most underrated guy nobody's ever heard of in
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: the last fifteen years as a coach, really really good
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: head coach, and he's always just been crappy places. But
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: Clark Lee's worst year is minus four point h two.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: Jeff Levy's wor Jeff Levy's worst year is minus four
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: point one one, so they both have the same floor.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: It's terrible, But clark Lee dropped a ten win season, yeah,
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: and Bama and he beat Bama the year before damped them,
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: and I didn't think that I would see that. Well.
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know when they had beat him ever, but whatever,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: it had been a long time.
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: It will certainly be an interesting rubber season for them, right,
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: two up, two down? This uh yeah, this sixth year
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 2: for clark Le, sixth year.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State hosts Vanderbilt in November at home November seventh.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: And Clark Lee's gone minus four coach effect one year
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: and Jeff Levy went mine sport catch effect his first year.
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: But then clark got on a heater did and he
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: got Diego Pavia and Jerry Kill and I can't remember
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: what the offensive coordinator's name, it's like Tim something.
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: And he is really good too. And that's that's my
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: big wildcard for Vanderbilt. How good is back? And obviously
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: freshman quarterback, but how good really is back? Because defensively
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: they stink. That's what drives me nuts. You get all
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: this clark Lee is great and this, that and the other,
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: and he hasn't rolled out a good defense to save
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: his life in six years. Not seriously, I mean, none
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: of the defenses I don't believe have been been good.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm recalling it wrong, but you know, I remember
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: looking at this and it's just like I was hoping
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: when when they hired him, promoted Dame that the defense
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: would be good. And it's never hit. The only thing
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: that's hit is Pavia. That's it.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: What a what an unbelievable bet. And and as far
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: as he had, he had one ace left, he was out.
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: He was down a half million dollars at the black
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: jack table or at the poker table, right, and he's
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: double down.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: He was double yeah.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: Somehow he said, Jerry kill Tim Beck, diego Pavia and
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: now I'm gonna make fifty million more and they'll fire
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: me in two years. But I got a fat new
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: contract after crushing it the last two generation. I mean
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: that didn't they host game day or something. I mean
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: they've done stuff that we didn't. They stormed the field,
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: just things that. Of course, when they beat Bama two
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: years ago, which was incredible, I mean Bama was still good. Yeah,
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: and they I know it was Debor's first year following Saban,
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: but they were still good. Vanderbilt ran it down their
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: throat in the fourth quarter to win the game in
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: the walk off. This was a beating man. All right,
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: why don't we leave it there that that's pretty good. Diego.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: I can watch Diego Pavia. I watched him a lot
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: the last two years. He was worth turning on the
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: TV poorn of beer, getting the wings off the grill
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: and watching Diego do all kinds of crazy stuff. It
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: really didn't like he had that much around him. He
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: just made stuff, Sandlot, he was Johnny Manziel had players,
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: but he was Johnny. I mean those guys, that's a
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: great right guy that just gives the football and just
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: cook bud. Yes, that's a great profile. Jeremi Ma Soli
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: and Diego Pobby with the same stupid attitude. Yeah, which
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: made them who they both. It's like any of us,
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: our strength is our greatest weakness. That that that's a bar.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: Two just nailed it. That's what drove and made them huge.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: Chip on the shoulder. All that stuff. I don't care
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: who I'm playing. I believe I'm gonna win. F you
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: all that stuff, Sandlot football, you can't ever take me out.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 1: But also you know, I'm just gonna do what I
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: want when I want for me to college.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean right, I
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: mean whether it's Johnny or Diego or it's all the
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: same thing, right it is. It's just Tim Hard. Let
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: me cook, Baby, let me cook, let me cook.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: All right, we'll continue one here in a few and
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: uh bar two on the out of down show. Uh
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: brought to you by Pearl River Resort and Dancing Rabbit
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: Golf Club and the super cool steakhouse Philip M's Steakhouse.
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: Check it out for football season. Pearl River Resort dot
• 1:47:42
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