Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Election Mayhem Incoming🚨Is Bitcoin Ready?

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Election Mayhem Incoming🚨Is Bitcoin Ready? · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Midterm mayhem is happening today. We'll break it down and
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: get into what is the crux of where the market
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: is heading. I want to thank our sponsor today. And
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  Speaker 1: check it out. Tell them we sent you. Let's start
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: off though with this tweet. And the one I want
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: to kind of focus on is the line list of
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: items that are happening just this week. And remember this week,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: right before midterm elections, You've got the 26th U.S. market opens. This,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: of course, is after Trump is holding a tax on Iran.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: You've got ADP employment data coming in. You also have
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: the FOMC meeting this week. Also, Google and Microsoft earnings
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: are happening. Then you have the PCE coming in late
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: in the week, along with GDP data and, of course,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Amazon earnings, which will be interesting to see. And then lastly,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: maybe one of the most important is the Bank of
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Japan's interest rate decision will be coming in on the 30th.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: So all of this happening prior to midterms. You consider that,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: and then you look at the Fed decision. I want
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: to go to the October, pretty much a lock that
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: we're going to get a no change right now, holding
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: at 91.5% for October 28th, which is happening this week.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Could be the most boring Fed meeting if this is
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: in fact going to be the case. The question though,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: is what he talks about going and what he's looking
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: into for December. Because if you look at the December data,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Now we're talking about an 80% almost potential of a
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: rate hike of a quarter basis point. So this gets
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: into a whole layer of things that how this market
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: could flow midterms after a no change on the FOMC
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: meeting and the Fed. Then, of course, midterms happen. And
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: then you've got this right here, which is the midterms themselves. Democrats,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: 65% chance of taking the Senate. We already see right
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: now a 93% chance of the Democrats taking the House.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: So if we do get a blue wave, this starts
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: to change maybe how this market will perform. If anything,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: it's going to settle the uncertainty because we will start
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: to see things happening in D.C. that may actually charge
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: in the side of a little bit more uncertainty. But
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  Speaker 1: I think the markets themselves will look at it from
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: a settled point. and may be able to react to that.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: If you look at midterm elections and post-market reactions, you
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: could go back all the way to the 2018 elections
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: where we had a little bit of a dip on
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin and then boom, right there. Joe Biden, couple of
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  Speaker 1: weeks and then climbing. Well, here we are right now
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: and we are moving into a midterm that could see
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: a similar reaction. Even if you go back to Barack Obama,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: that was in 2014, market was down. And then the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: market went up. So I think that's the key here
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: is you've got a lot of uncertainty of what is
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: going to happen in D.C., not necessarily from a regulatory standpoint,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: but I think just in general, the country looks at
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: it from a standpoint of are we going to start
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: to see maybe some changes, whether it's on inflation or
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: how the market and the economy might react? And if
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: we do see a change in the White House, things
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: could be going in that direction. So you have a
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  Speaker 1: lot happening for sure. You have the Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu,
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  Speaker 1: has now repeatedly asked Trump for more public support ahead
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: of Tuesday's elections. Elections around the world are now in
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  Speaker 1: distress and the White House is out there actually in
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: a position where they could see this as somewhat of
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  Speaker 1: a sign of a desperation. And I think that's the question,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: is as we see these elections come in, how does
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: this play out in the United States? Because it's happening
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: in Brazil. And here is the real question. How does
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  Speaker 1: it happen next week here in the United States? So
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  Speaker 1: Lula was declared the winner of Brazil's election. Bolsonaro comes in,
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  Speaker 1: completely rejects the results. And right after that, you get this,
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  Speaker 1: a pour-off in the Brazilian stock market. So that is
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: the concern you have, is do you get some kind
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  Speaker 1: of major event, an October surprise that might happen in
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  Speaker 1: early November? Whether it's AI, infrastructure, threats, who knows what,
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  Speaker 1: do we get any kind of unusual activity around the
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  Speaker 1: midterm elections that could push the market down? Anthropic came
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: in and actually revealed this, that Claude has already accessed
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Georgia voter information without any human authorization. This is just
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  Speaker 1: days before the midterm. That's the concern I have, is
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: these kinds of antics that may cause things to either
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: slow down or get into a position where elections are
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  Speaker 1: questioned highly, like what we saw there in Brazil. You
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: also have Bitcoin breaking below 80K. Many people concerned about
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Iran fears, but I think the real question is really
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: midterm fears is what I fear is we are going
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: to be facing this week. And still, as we're trading today,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: dipping into 79,000, Bitcoin has actually done it. One note
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: in this article I want to hit on right here,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: along with the big week that's ahead, we've got Robinhood
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: earnings happening on Tuesday. If you follow the Twitter right there,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: stars are aligning. There are seven assets coming in in
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: four weeks, all starting tomorrow. So you can kind of
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: see some familiar faces in there. Tan, Ando, a handful
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: of others, including Swee and Hedera, all making their way
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: to Robinhood. So be on the lookout for some news
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: around that. Another major potential. Fear and greed, though, is
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: hovering right now at 43. My anticipation is this is
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: actually much more bullish than I feel the market respects
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: right now. I think it should be lower than this,
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  Speaker 1: but right now holding at 43 around fear and greed.
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  Speaker 1: Other things you've got, Bitcoin down 7.3, gold down 7.5.
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  Speaker 1: These are the two worst performing major asset classes in
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: in 2026 so far. However, if you go back and
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: look at Bitcoin since 2011, still the highest annualized return.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Many of you were not in it, but even gold
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: is still returning 6.3% annually. And then gold also surged
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: 63% in 2025. So it was one of the biggest,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: but also making a sharp decline here recently. So Those
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  Speaker 1: are two major classes. And I think many investors look
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  Speaker 1: at this and are concerned. These are the kind of
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: things that start to set them back in how they
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: put together a strategy, especially going into a post midterm timing.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Strategy hit the brakes on Bitcoin acquisition. And this went
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: from a 1600 Bitcoin in one week to zero in
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: just a month. So you can kind of see the
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: line list of purchases there. They have definitely started to slow.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Many people say, OK, well, that's because Bitcoin is starting
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: to come down. We're looking for a new price entry. OK, sure.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: But most of the time, Saylor is bearing very strategic
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: around how he's acquiring Bitcoin. And timing really had not
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: necessarily been an issue. You've got another major issue happening,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: and that is hackers just hijacked 70 different brokerages. And
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: now you've got Japan's internet group confirming a major cyber
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: attack on their desktop cloud. this, of course, starts to
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  Speaker 1: represent an issue that I'm still mostly concerned about, and
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: that is the traditional finance ecosystem, banks, brokerages, etc., as
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: well as mini pension funds, money market funds. These are
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  Speaker 1: vectors that I'm very concerned with around where AI and
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  Speaker 1: potential hackers that are AI-assisted really have a chance to
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  Speaker 1: start to cause a lot of mayhem going into this.
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  Speaker 1: You have Claude, developer Anthropic, officially filing for its IPO,
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  Speaker 1: saw this go out and get the listing under the
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  Speaker 1: ticker ANT. And this, of course, is happening despite an $ 80. 7
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  Speaker 1: billion net loss and $ 16 billion in the first half revenue.
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  Speaker 1: So you look at Anthropic, you compare that to what
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: happened with SpaceX and And you're doing it at a time, really,
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  Speaker 1: that things are so volatile. I just don't know if
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  Speaker 1: this is the perfect time for Anthropic. I understand this
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  Speaker 1: is a space race or so much, you know, an
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: AI race. But I just don't know if this is
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the right timing for this going to market. Again, I
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: get that they're really trying to compete with what's going
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  Speaker 1: on with OpenAI. I want to go to a clip
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: because these are the things to watch around this listing.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
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  Speaker 2: And it's shown, frankly, massive growth. Revenue in the first
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  Speaker 2: half of the year, $ 16. 3 billion versus $ 1. 2 billion a
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: year ago. But a net loss of $ 80. 7 billion overwhelmingly
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: distorted by accounting charges. There is no price. There is
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: no target raise and thus no valuation yet. All of
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  Speaker 2: that in terms of the prelim offering is not in it.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: Of course it's not. But the reality is that compute
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: economics in 2023, compute was 10x what revenue was. And
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: now compute is about 55% of revenue as of the
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: first half of this year. So that's clearly improved, but
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: it is making a big future bet. One thing I
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: would just underscore, guys, to leave you with, there is
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: nothing really in here for financials for the third quarter.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: And so they're going to have to do an amendment, right?
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: And we'll get an S1A nearer to that period in
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: November where we'll learn about the country's current trajectory. But
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: Q2 versus the reported Q3 revenue number of $ 16. 8 billion
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: would represent decelerating top line growth. So we need to
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: understand why that's happening. All right.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: So the key thing here, understand why this, I think,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: is the race is on. You're going to have a
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: handful of winners. Anthropic most likely will be one of them.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: The real question is, is how much damage does it
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: do to the company if we continue to see these
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: kind of slowed growth numbers that he's talking about? And
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I would agree with that. This is one that, again,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I still had the concern with SpaceX. Yes, it came down.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: We anticipated that. However, now it's started to rebound. Maybe
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: that was a great opportunity for those. But remember, a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: lot of these investors, these early investors in many of
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: these companies like Anthropic, like SpaceX, they have all of
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: these opportunities of unlocks that start to damage this stock
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: going forward. So be very cautious with any of these
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: that we don't see real correlation to profitability or at
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: least growth that is in line with costs. And that's
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the concern I have most around Anthropic. Other things you
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: have to look at is you've got Korea even jumping
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: into the mix here where South Korea is postponing its
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: proposed 22% crypto tax. Again, remember this started back in
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: 2020 and now they're moving the launch Instead of 27,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: now it's 29. That will be a decade. This will
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: be the fourth delay. So I don't know if it's
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: going to happen for Korea at this rate. And why
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: would you not be able to correlate this? Either one,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: they see a flight of tax revenue, or they have
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: such an antiquated system being able to manage this that
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: they just don't understand how to get there. Either one
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: of those is bad, I think, for South Korea, especially
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: around what we're seeing with crypto taxes. Google Co-founder Larry
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Page now has reportedly moved into a Miami home to
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: avoid $ 15 billion in California taxes. Not surprising. We've already
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: seen an exodus of most billionaires coming out of California,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: putting more pressure on the state. And I think this
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: is only going to continue right now for the state
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: of California. I want to jump to this clip right
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: here because this is Alex Karp. This is the Palantir
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: CEO talking about, well, hey, listen, if you tax us,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: guess what's going to happen? Here we go.
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: Something that I think will happen in this country, which
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: is some kind of crazy wealth tax. By the way,
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: everybody here understands once you tax me. Everybody is going
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: to be taxed at some point with a net worth
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: of a million dollars. And, by the way, what people
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: have underestimated is that extends the surveillance state, something people
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: think I power, but I'm actually anti-power. Because to understand
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: someone's net worth down to that level of granularity, you
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: would need a very powerful product to look at all
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: of their assets in real time. And how do you
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: value those assets? And at what point are they sold?
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is your metier. It's much, much more difficult.
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: But it's, well, it's difficult or it's much more punishing
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: because you can just say, well, we're going to impute
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: at the highest level, right?
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: So you could make it.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: Very difficult and it could work. I don't think people
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: have the competence to do that. And I don't want
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: to be involved in that. Our products probably could do that.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: All right. So what you had there with CARP, it
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: almost looked at as though it was a threat. And
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: that is in the essence of If there's going to
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: be tax on the billionaires, we are going to go
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: out after all of these individuals that potentially, and what
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: he was talking about was evaluating assets for people that
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: may or may not necessarily be a millionaire or even
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: hold those kind of assets, but it could be valued at.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: And of course, they're building all these AI products that
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: most likely will be used to establish this. So something
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: to consider as we start to see this happen, because
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: it's going to happen real time. One other thing I
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: want to get into, and that is the volatility of
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: the market. Can you use it to your advantage? Take
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: Last week, a lot happened. The market is broadening out.
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: I know technology got hit really hard last week and
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: month to date. And then I thought last week we
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: got SpaceX and we had Meta and we're starting to
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: see monetization. And I think you're going to see that
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: this week with the other names that are going to
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: be reporting as well. Earnings are running up 38 percent
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: and revenues are running up about 11 percent. So I
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: feel pretty good. I think you want to use the
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: volatility to be adding.
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: 30% jump in corporate profits is expected in the third quarter,
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: but two companies, NVIDIA and Micron, account for 34% of
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: that growth, those two companies alone.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: All right, very centralized to the point of profitability, because
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: many would say, well, hey, listen, we're seeing profits, but
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: at the same time, it's very isolated into a handful
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of companies. But I think the point to watch is
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: maybe after midterms, barring some crazy issue that occurs this
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: week and early next, maybe the opportunity is here for
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: the market to see an upswing. On another note, I
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: want to hit on, and that of course is CZ
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: is actually ringing the bell over at the NASDAQ exchange,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: amping up the BNB standard. This of course is a
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: BNB standard digital asset treasury for BNB. I don't know
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: if this is bullish or not bullish, but the point
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: you have to look at BNB, a major force in
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: global crypto communities is And many investors, this has been
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: a big one. Now you've got a DAT company trading
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: on the U.S. Stock Exchange. Here, of course, was Tom
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Lee talking about this. And it was not necessarily Tom Lee,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: but within Fundstrat, Lee's company. But this was Mark Newton
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: talking about it. And he says right now he thinks
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: we're going to buy the tip in technology. And he
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: thinks this is just another dip and it's the right
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: time to buy. So What do you guys think? Is
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: this the right time to buy? Anytime I see these
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: kinds of market volatility areas, these are usually opportunities to
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: try to add to something that you're very, you know,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: very faith, had a lot of faith in in terms
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: of growth, whether it's tech, whether it's crypto, whether it
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: is gold, whatever the asset class is. Many people look
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: at it in these kinds of times when you see
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: these opportunities because they come from time to time as
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: a great point in where you just add to your stack.
• 16:09
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• 16:11
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