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Inside The Data: Were The Eagles Done In By A Statistical Outlier? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome to Inside the Data. On Inside the
0:12
Speaker 1: Birds Jeff Mosher, and of course on inside the Data,
0:15
Speaker 1: we've got Sam Finkel and to quote Sam, the boys
0:20
Speaker 1: to men, the R and B group. We have come
0:22
Speaker 1: to the end of the road for the twenty twenty
0:25
Speaker 1: five edition of Eagles Inside the Data. Now, of course
0:28
Speaker 1: we'll continue to do stuff as long as you're with it.
0:31
Speaker 2: Sorry, no problem.
0:33
Speaker 1: We will do stuff all throughout the off season. But
0:36
Speaker 1: we've got to wrap up the twenty twenty five season.
0:39
Speaker 1: And I want to hit you with a big picture
0:42
Speaker 1: question right from the start, because it's really predicated on
0:45
Speaker 1: a lot of the data that we're about to go through.
0:48
Speaker 1: When I bring up your charts, right, and the question
0:51
Speaker 1: is this in losing obviously, losing to the forty nine ers, right,
0:56
Speaker 1: twenty three, nineteen, twenty four, nineteen, A lot of things
1:00
Speaker 1: three nineteen, Yeah, a lot, a lot of chain reaction
1:03
Speaker 1: things happen. Kevin Petulo gets fired. Now there's a new
1:06
Speaker 1: search for an oc somber Nike at this press conference.
1:10
Speaker 1: I guess what I the question I would have in
1:13
Speaker 1: your mind if the Eagles had won that game, right
1:16
Speaker 1: and then sort of won ugly again, made it through
1:19
Speaker 1: either of the conference championship, perhaps the Super Bowl, which
1:21
Speaker 1: they really could have done. That was a one possession
1:23
Speaker 1: game and they blew some opportunities that will go through.
1:27
Speaker 1: Does that make their loss to the Niners to you,
1:30
Speaker 1: especially from analytical and data standpoints, somewhat of an outlier
1:35
Speaker 1: because even in losing, they did things that typically lead
1:39
Speaker 1: to them winning.
1:42
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:42
Speaker 3: I mean they won a lot of metrics that you know,
1:47
Speaker 3: when you win those metrics, you should win the game.
1:51
Speaker 1: Right, and for them they usually do.
1:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you'll see it when we go into the
1:57
Speaker 3: actual data of it.
1:58
Speaker 2: But I do think it.
2:00
Speaker 3: Was an outlier outcome the process based, there's a lot
2:06
Speaker 3: that probably leads that.
2:08
Speaker 2: The Eagles should have won that game for sure.
2:10
Speaker 1: Yes. Yes, Now you can combine the two philosophies. You
2:14
Speaker 1: can say the failures of this offense and some other
2:17
Speaker 1: things throughout the year, what do you want to call it,
2:20
Speaker 1: coaching decision making led to the outlier coming back to
2:24
Speaker 1: bite you in the rear end, and so you have
2:25
Speaker 1: to be buttoned up regardless. But I do wonder if
2:30
Speaker 1: they played this game ten times, how often the exact
2:34
Speaker 1: game statistically, outside of the score, exact game philosophically and stylistically,
2:42
Speaker 1: do the egos win this one seven or eight times?
2:44
Speaker 1: I think some of the analytics and data suggests based
2:47
Speaker 1: on what you put together, that they do. And then
2:50
Speaker 1: how does that change, if at all, the trajectory of
2:54
Speaker 1: the franchise.
2:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, listen, this was the year that I
2:58
Speaker 3: felt like there was the most parody in the NFL,
3:02
Speaker 3: which was a good thing for you know, football watching football,
3:07
Speaker 3: but it also meant the Eagles, who had probably the
3:10
Speaker 3: best roster of the entire playoff every team. It was
3:16
Speaker 3: really a great window and a great chance. And that's
3:18
Speaker 3: what hurts the most because it feels like this should
3:22
Speaker 3: have been a year that the Eagles could have and
3:24
Speaker 3: probably should have won the whole thing, certainly.
3:27
Speaker 1: To your point, and Josh Allen, I'm sure it feels
3:29
Speaker 1: the same way about this. You know, no Lamar, no,
3:32
Speaker 1: no Patrick Mahomes, no truly dominant kind of either Hall
3:36
Speaker 1: of Fame quarterback or team standing in the way. And
3:39
Speaker 1: I part of me thought thinks that if the Eagles
3:42
Speaker 1: had won that game against the Niners ugly like they
3:45
Speaker 1: normally do, there's a chance they still win this weekend,
3:48
Speaker 1: whoever they're playing in an ugly fight. You know, whether
3:50
Speaker 1: they're going to Chicago, right, they could have beat them ugly,
3:52
Speaker 1: and then you just wonder they would they be making changes,
3:55
Speaker 1: And the answer could be if they had done all
3:58
Speaker 1: that and then decided to keep it back, then that
4:01
Speaker 1: could have been bad for the franchise too. So sometimes
4:03
Speaker 1: a loss, or sometimes an outlier can be a blessing
4:06
Speaker 1: in disguise. It puts you in a discomfort zone and
4:09
Speaker 1: forces you to make the changes that you might not
4:11
Speaker 1: have made surewise.
4:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it just feels bitter and not sweet yet.
4:17
Speaker 3: Hopefully it will feel bitter sweet, but right now, just bitter.
4:22
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at some of your charts, because
4:24
Speaker 1: this is really I was already thinking it after the
4:26
Speaker 1: game because a couple of data points really stuck out
4:30
Speaker 1: to me, and then it wound up being on your
4:32
Speaker 1: chart as well, and so it made for good conversation.
4:35
Speaker 1: So we're going to start off with the score by quarter,
4:39
Speaker 1: and this was like, what was the game? Was it
4:43
Speaker 1: the Buffalo game where Buffalo was nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing,
4:46
Speaker 1: and all the sort of shoots up in the fourth quarter,
4:48
Speaker 1: right because we finally score a touchdown. So it's kind
4:51
Speaker 1: of like that with the forty nine ers a little
4:52
Speaker 1: bit here.
4:53
Speaker 2: It really is.
4:54
Speaker 3: And it's a shame because I really think that, like
4:58
Speaker 3: we said, it should have on the other way.
5:01
Speaker 2: But right, you know, it didn't. It didn't.
5:03
Speaker 1: It did not some fourth quarter scoring there by the
5:06
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. And I give Kyle Shannon credit. I
5:08
Speaker 1: thought he I thought he out coached Big Fani, to.
5:10
Speaker 2: Be honest with you, Yeah, he definitely did.
5:13
Speaker 1: Vic does not get Star of the Statue.
5:15
Speaker 3: I assume there's no Star of the Statue for sure.
5:19
Speaker 3: For sure, I mean Quinya Mitchell. But the thing is
5:22
Speaker 3: in losses, we historically have not done it, so we're
5:25
Speaker 3: not right.
5:26
Speaker 1: Hey, I think that's well deserved.
5:28
Speaker 2: Yeah.
5:29
Speaker 1: So now you look at the peak win percentage. What
5:32
Speaker 1: data points jump out to you here?
5:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, the Eagles held their highest win percentage with
5:37
Speaker 3: four to twelve in the third quarter.
5:40
Speaker 2: Philadelphia had thirteen.
5:42
Speaker 3: San Francisco had ten following a four yard Saquon Barkley
5:45
Speaker 3: run converting a third and three.
5:48
Speaker 1: Do we recall what happened at the end of that drive.
5:53
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what happened at the end of that drive.
5:55
Speaker 1: I think they kicked it because they went up sixteen
5:58
Speaker 1: ten at that, Yes, right, A Fielgal Yeah, yeah, yeah,
6:01
Speaker 1: A Jake make.
6:04
Speaker 2: Well, that's that's definitely something to be talking about for sure.
6:07
Speaker 3: Sure, Jake Elliott, I think he has the worst playoff
6:12
Speaker 3: field goal conversion percentage in play in NFL history.
6:15
Speaker 1: Right now, Wow, that's crazy. I mean he went from
6:18
Speaker 1: being like the make and mister automatic to that. That's unbelievable.
6:22
Speaker 1: Your next, your next data points really to me tell
6:25
Speaker 1: the story. So go ahead and put together tell us
6:27
Speaker 1: what you put together from NFL pro.
6:29
Speaker 3: Yes, So this is a very depressing statistic, and it
6:33
Speaker 3: really you know, encapsulates kind.
6:36
Speaker 2: Of the beginning of our conversation.
6:38
Speaker 3: Uh, Eagles became the first team in the Super Bowl
6:41
Speaker 3: era to lose a playoff game with one turnover margin
6:45
Speaker 3: greater than plus one. They had a plus two turnover
6:47
Speaker 3: margin with Mitchell's two interceptions and two rushing yards rushing
6:54
Speaker 3: yard margin over fifty plus fifty they had. They had
6:57
Speaker 3: plus sixty five rushing yards. So before were before that game,
7:02
Speaker 3: teams were one hundred and thirty two and oh in
7:04
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl era. After that, they were one hundred
7:07
Speaker 3: and thirty two and one.
7:09
Speaker 1: That's incredible, and that was really the thing that stuck
7:12
Speaker 1: out to me after the game, while I was decompressing,
7:14
Speaker 1: I thought to myself, Man, the Eagles had a rare
7:18
Speaker 1: game in which they ran the ball decently, not great, decently,
7:22
Speaker 1: but they didn't turn the ball over at all, and
7:25
Speaker 1: then they caused two turno you know, they had two
7:27
Speaker 1: takeaways and played relativetiveically good and they held a team
7:31
Speaker 1: under twenty five points. So forget what you have for
7:36
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl data as era data is unbelievable, you know,
7:39
Speaker 1: teams being one, thirty two and ozer before that. But
7:41
Speaker 1: this is the essence and the backbone of who the
7:45
Speaker 1: Eagles are under Nick Sirianni As he says all the time,
7:48
Speaker 1: we want to win, you know, the time and possession.
7:51
Speaker 1: We want to win turnover battle, which they I believe,
7:54
Speaker 1: I don't know. I didn't check time possessionly we'll get
7:56
Speaker 1: to that.
7:56
Speaker 2: In the second.
7:57
Speaker 1: But you know the button, the button line is they
7:59
Speaker 1: did win.
8:00
Speaker 3: Yeah. So the next stut I have is teams with
8:02
Speaker 3: zero giveaways and thirty five plus minutes of time session
8:06
Speaker 3: are now twenty and two at home in the playoffs
8:09
Speaker 3: and over forty seasons.
8:10
Speaker 2: Uh.
8:11
Speaker 3: The only other team was the twenty twenty three Buffalo
8:13
Speaker 3: Bills versus the Chiefs.
8:15
Speaker 1: Wow, So it really does scream outlier loss. Except everybody
8:19
Speaker 1: who watched it and felt it didn't think that, right,
8:23
Speaker 1: because you figured if the Eagles were gonna lose this year,
8:26
Speaker 1: it was going to be that way. It was going
8:28
Speaker 1: to be because they just couldn't put it together offensively.
8:32
Speaker 1: And I don't want to let the defense off the hook,
8:33
Speaker 1: but because I expected a little bit more from them,
8:38
Speaker 1: but they were asked to do too much over the
8:40
Speaker 1: last eight weeks of the season anyway.
8:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, for sure.
8:43
Speaker 3: And the thing is, the defense is allowed to have
8:46
Speaker 3: a bad game every now and then and the offense.
8:48
Speaker 3: The defense bailed the offense out almost every single win
8:51
Speaker 3: that the Eagles had, Right, It's unsustainable to think that
8:55
Speaker 3: the defense can't be bailed out one or two games.
9:00
Speaker 1: If the offense had a nice game, you know, every
9:02
Speaker 1: now and then.
9:03
Speaker 2: Exactly, all right.
9:05
Speaker 1: The basic data on the game, man, the yards per
9:09
Speaker 1: pass is what really jumped out of me.
9:10
Speaker 3: Sam, Yeah, that one definitely. It's one that the Ford
9:15
Speaker 3: nine ers won for sure, and not just one they
9:18
Speaker 3: dominated him.
9:19
Speaker 1: Yeah. Is it almost double? Not quite almost double, but
9:23
Speaker 1: pretty close. Despite the fact that there's no Brandon Nayuk.
9:27
Speaker 1: You lose George Kittle pretty early there in the second quarter. No,
9:31
Speaker 1: Ricky Piersoll. I mean their best weapons were DeMarcus Robinson,
9:34
Speaker 1: who goes for over one hundred yards. He's thirty two
9:37
Speaker 1: years old, right, and McCaffrey, who's a really good weapon.
9:42
Speaker 1: I don't want to diminish that, but I'm talking about
9:44
Speaker 1: wide receiver web guys who you shouldn't be able to
9:46
Speaker 1: stretch the field within almost nine yards per pass average
9:50
Speaker 1: when you don't have anybody other than Juwan Jennings to
9:52
Speaker 1: throw two.
9:53
Speaker 2: Yeah.
9:53
Speaker 3: I mean they also had sky Moore, a lot of
9:55
Speaker 3: former chiefs on that the smartest Robinson and sky More.
10:01
Speaker 3: That's that's quite a roster that beat the Eagles crazy.
10:05
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. And to your point, time possession wasn't even close.
10:08
Speaker 1: That's the really damning and incriminating part of the Eagles offenses.
10:12
Speaker 1: They possessed the ball for almost thirty six minutes compared
10:16
Speaker 1: to the Niners who had it at twenty four. So
10:19
Speaker 1: it's about fifty percent more ball control than the Niners did.
10:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, it really is. So it's there you go and.
10:28
Speaker 1: A good starting pit. Well, how often we've talked about
10:30
Speaker 1: starting position, really, Matt helping the Eagles offense out this year.
10:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we've talked about it a decent amount.
10:37
Speaker 3: They haven't had the best starting field position, but they
10:40
Speaker 3: dominated in the statistic here crazy, and they still lost.
10:44
Speaker 3: It's usually those bottom three determinable the wins or losses,
10:48
Speaker 3: and the Eagles won all three and lost the game.
10:51
Speaker 1: Green, green, Green, and lost crazy all right, third down stats,
10:55
Speaker 1: it's been our big topic of discussion all year long.
11:00
Speaker 1: So they were five of sixteen against the Niner. That
11:02
Speaker 1: tells the story right there, man, it really does. I mean,
11:06
Speaker 1: that's been the story all season. And as you can see,
11:10
Speaker 1: that performance is worse than their regular season performance.
11:13
Speaker 2: Which was bad, yep.
11:16
Speaker 3: And it was worse than their last year's performance, which
11:18
Speaker 3: was not bad. It was not great, but it wasn't bad.
11:21
Speaker 1: Right. I'm glad you brought that up because I wrote
11:23
Speaker 1: a story for Philly Voice talking about the decline of
11:26
Speaker 1: the Eagles offense, which has really been a two year issue,
11:30
Speaker 1: and I got a lot of pushback from people, Oh,
11:31
Speaker 1: did you forget the NFC championship game with the Super Bowl?
11:34
Speaker 1: As if two games out of the I want to
11:37
Speaker 1: say twenty that they played last year are a bigger
11:43
Speaker 1: enough sample size. They were okay, they were good on third,
11:46
Speaker 1: They were okay on third down last year. I don't
11:48
Speaker 1: think they were top five, seven or eight like that.
11:50
Speaker 1: They were just all right.
11:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then if you look at their opponent, they
11:55
Speaker 3: performed significantly better than the both two years. So it
11:59
Speaker 3: was a bad defense game for a lot of a
12:01
Speaker 3: lot of ways. But they still couldn't capitalize on it
12:06
Speaker 3: offensively even though they had, you know, thirty six minutes
12:09
Speaker 3: of time with the ball.
12:11
Speaker 1: So now, if you want to be an optimist, this
12:15
Speaker 1: is really reaching. We've talked all year long about how
12:18
Speaker 1: the Eagles have lived in third and long. It's sometimes
12:21
Speaker 1: almost like fifty percent more than third and short and
12:23
Speaker 1: third medium together. This time it was just equivalent. They
12:26
Speaker 1: were in third and long as much as they were
12:29
Speaker 1: in third short and third and medium. But unfortunately for them,
12:32
Speaker 1: they were even worse on third and long in this
12:35
Speaker 1: game than even they've been all year.
12:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was it was definitely poor performance on third
12:41
Speaker 3: and long.
12:41
Speaker 2: So there you go.
12:43
Speaker 1: Forty nine and obviously again the forty nine ers, man,
12:46
Speaker 1: they really the forty nine ers are an excellent third
12:49
Speaker 1: down team. So it's not surprising to me that they
12:52
Speaker 1: crushed it in that category, but it is a little
12:55
Speaker 1: bit surprising to me that they lost Kittle in the
12:57
Speaker 1: game and still crushed it in that category. If you
13:02
Speaker 1: would have told someone before the game that that was
13:04
Speaker 1: going to happen, that they were going to lose Kittle
13:05
Speaker 1: after on his first catch I think in the second quarter,
13:09
Speaker 1: and play the rest of the game without him, you
13:11
Speaker 1: would have never picked the Niners to win, right, I
13:13
Speaker 1: mean who would.
13:14
Speaker 3: Have I mean, just looking at all the data besides
13:16
Speaker 3: the score, I would have said that the Eagles probably
13:19
Speaker 3: won that game.
13:19
Speaker 1: It's a great point, great point, and actually, to be fair,
13:22
Speaker 1: looking at all that data, you might have said by
13:24
Speaker 1: what ten.
13:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably, yeah, just the basic data.
13:29
Speaker 3: Once we get into the advanced stuff, we'll see and
13:32
Speaker 3: we're about there we go.
13:34
Speaker 1: All right, So now you've got the chart that shows
13:36
Speaker 1: the Eagles advanced data for the year and then how
13:40
Speaker 1: it looked against the Niners on the right side. So
13:43
Speaker 1: as it wasn't good for the year, we've talked about that.
13:45
Speaker 1: I mean, they wound up finishing with one number that
13:48
Speaker 1: wasn't negative because it was zero zero zero. That's ePaper pass. Yeah,
13:53
Speaker 1: so nothing positive, but they were all I guess two
13:57
Speaker 1: out of three categories. They were worse than their regular
14:01
Speaker 1: season yep.
14:02
Speaker 3: Absolutely, and that was just rushing. They rushed better and
14:06
Speaker 3: they're rushing better. Was still negative.
14:08
Speaker 1: You know what I would have liked to have seen
14:10
Speaker 1: and this is not on you, which I don't even
14:12
Speaker 1: know if they do it this way, but epa per rush,
14:16
Speaker 1: but per half of that game, because I felt that
14:18
Speaker 1: Eagles ran the ball obviously very well in the first half,
14:21
Speaker 1: but then they did not run the ball well at
14:23
Speaker 1: all in the second half.
14:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree. I wonder if I could pull it.
14:28
Speaker 1: Up because I think Barkley had twenty nine yards on
14:32
Speaker 1: his first run, all right, and then he had a
14:34
Speaker 1: nine yard run he converted I think in your notes
14:37
Speaker 1: he converted a third and three with a four yard run.
14:39
Speaker 1: So I know that that's a major efficiency bonus right there.
14:42
Speaker 1: And that all happened in the first half. But then
14:45
Speaker 1: in the second half, I thought there were I think
14:49
Speaker 1: four he had five if I'm correct, he had five
14:52
Speaker 1: negative or zero yard runs, and I think four of them,
14:57
Speaker 1: if not all five, came in the second half.
14:59
Speaker 2: Sure, I can do it by it looks like quarter.
15:03
Speaker 1: Okay, hold on, let me get to the what's what
15:07
Speaker 1: side is that? Pff? Or is that the NFL? NFL
15:10
Speaker 1: bro I didn't realize they did that by quarter.
15:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can do it by quarter.
15:14
Speaker 3: Uh So their EPA per rush in the first quarter
15:17
Speaker 3: was plus point one.
15:20
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.
15:21
Speaker 2: Second quarter plus point two three.
15:25
Speaker 1: That's high. That's amazingly high.
15:27
Speaker 3: Okay, third quarter minus point five that's quite low. And
15:33
Speaker 3: then the fourth quarter plus point two two.
15:37
Speaker 1: Okay, fourth quarter plus point two two.
15:39
Speaker 2: Yep.
15:40
Speaker 1: So the third quarter was I think the quarter where
15:42
Speaker 1: the most of those negative and zeroons happened, and that's
15:45
Speaker 1: where the Eagles failed to capitalize and really pull away
15:48
Speaker 1: in the game. Did you say the third quarter was
15:51
Speaker 1: minus point zero five or point five point five? Holy cow,
15:57
Speaker 1: that's astronomically low. That is terrible. I mean, minus point
16:03
Speaker 1: zero five is not good, So it be minus point
16:06
Speaker 1: five is is just horrific.
16:08
Speaker 2: It's really bad.
16:09
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, wow, that's amazing. Yeah, anything else good. I'm sorry.
16:14
Speaker 2: I was just gonna say amazingly bad for sure.
16:17
Speaker 1: Yeah.
16:17
Speaker 3: I think their net time before pressure is super interesting here.
16:21
Speaker 3: It was extremely positive, meaning that typically hurts was not
16:25
Speaker 3: getting pressured in most of the throws, which makes sense
16:29
Speaker 3: with the depleted forty nine ers team. But at the
16:33
Speaker 3: same time, I mean he had all that time and
16:35
Speaker 3: yet their EPA for pass was still overall negative. It
16:39
Speaker 3: was so it was that that just tells me that
16:42
Speaker 3: the offense just was not working. Well, you look at
16:45
Speaker 3: that pressure percentage is pretty much in half of what
16:47
Speaker 3: it was all season, sack percentage is a third of
16:50
Speaker 3: what it was all season, and their run success was better.
16:54
Speaker 3: And you just look at all those and you're like,
16:56
Speaker 3: that should say it's a win too, and right, and
16:59
Speaker 3: yet they couldn't do anything.
17:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Yeah, It's just crazy because it's telling you
17:05
Speaker 1: you had more time than usual to throw, you were
17:07
Speaker 1: under less pressure, far less pressure than usual, you ran better,
17:11
Speaker 1: and yet you go back to the top you have
17:13
Speaker 1: negative eplate paper play, negative EPA for pass, and just
17:17
Speaker 1: a slightly better EPA per rush, which overall still is
17:20
Speaker 1: not a great number.
17:21
Speaker 2: Right, crazy, All.
17:24
Speaker 1: Right, here's the here's something that we can really get into. Okay, sure,
17:29
Speaker 1: what stands out to you?
17:30
Speaker 3: You do?
17:30
Speaker 1: I love this breakdown that you've brought over the last
17:33
Speaker 1: probably a month now of the season. The formational variation
17:37
Speaker 1: statistics anything that jump out set here.
17:40
Speaker 3: What jumps out to me is the fact that they're
17:42
Speaker 3: really they didn't stay with the momentum that they had
17:46
Speaker 3: the past couple weeks of using these other formations. I mean,
17:49
Speaker 3: they they were a shotgun like over sixty five percent
17:53
Speaker 3: of the time.
17:54
Speaker 2: So it's just it's it's a shame.
17:56
Speaker 3: That they didn't carry over what what was working for them,
18:01
Speaker 3: and a lot of these like empty looks, a lot
18:03
Speaker 3: of these I mean they did just single back a
18:05
Speaker 3: decent amount of time, which is again.
18:06
Speaker 2: Is just under center.
18:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, but yep, they really, all the momentum that they
18:11
Speaker 3: built up using these other formations, all the success that
18:14
Speaker 3: they brought it did not carry over because they didn't
18:17
Speaker 3: use these formations.
18:18
Speaker 2: As much as they did.
18:19
Speaker 1: Agree also to be under center eighteen times and only
18:24
Speaker 1: work two pass plays off of it when they've had
18:27
Speaker 1: a lot of success with that play action pass from
18:30
Speaker 1: under center surprised me. And of course they didn't even
18:33
Speaker 1: complete a pass from in either of those two pass.
18:37
Speaker 2: Plays over too correct, Yeah they were, Yeah.
18:40
Speaker 1: So that that surprises me as well. It just shows
18:43
Speaker 1: you the offense was not clicking at all, even things
18:46
Speaker 1: that they had done well they weren't able to replicate
18:48
Speaker 1: in this game.
18:49
Speaker 2: Well, they didn't even try, right.
18:51
Speaker 1: Just to pass. Yeah, yeah, because they haven't really run
18:53
Speaker 1: the ball well from under center. It's it's to me
18:56
Speaker 1: it's been a better or an improvement for their play action.
19:00
Speaker 3: Pass game, right, But they actually did run it decently well.
19:04
Speaker 1: Right here in this game, Yes.
19:07
Speaker 2: In this game.
19:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, And so you would think that they would have,
19:10
Speaker 3: you know, used that more.
19:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially with the Niners. You know, I'm guessing part
19:16
Speaker 1: of running the ball well was the Niners being down
19:18
Speaker 1: to you and me at off ball linebacker there, you know,
19:22
Speaker 1: or playing big nickel and just throwing a bottle defensive
19:25
Speaker 1: backs on the field and just asking them to fly
19:27
Speaker 1: towards the run. But they weren't very big upfront. They
19:29
Speaker 1: couldn't be. Yeah, interesting stuff. So that man, that that
19:37
Speaker 1: pie is big on the on the shotgun there, it
19:39
Speaker 1: shows that they were in a shotgun sixty five percent
19:42
Speaker 1: and then back one more point, Sam, how about spread
19:45
Speaker 1: empty five percent? Six percent?
19:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was that.
19:50
Speaker 1: So that took away two things in my feeling. A.
19:55
Speaker 1: It took away the Jalen Hurts design run out of
19:58
Speaker 1: the spread empty, which is a very has been a
20:01
Speaker 1: very effective run for them, especially against a team that's
20:04
Speaker 1: beat up at linebacker. So I thought that that there
20:08
Speaker 1: was not anything there to take advantage of by not
20:11
Speaker 1: being in spread empty. And then also, like you go
20:13
Speaker 1: spread empty, you sort of make the defense declare a
20:16
Speaker 1: lot earlier because they got to like match up against
20:18
Speaker 1: all your receivers excuse me, and they just didn't. They
20:23
Speaker 1: that was not their preference for whatever reason.
20:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I agree.
20:29
Speaker 1: How about Sequon's a little spray chart of runs here?
20:32
Speaker 1: What sticks out to you?
20:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean he was second in rushing yards and
20:35
Speaker 3: all playoff teams, fourth and rushing yards over expected per attempt,
20:41
Speaker 3: and the only running back to record a twenty plus
20:43
Speaker 3: mile hour run, which was his twenty nine yard run
20:46
Speaker 3: in the first quarter.
20:47
Speaker 1: Only running back in the playoffs to having a twenty
20:49
Speaker 1: mile per hour run.
20:50
Speaker 2: Nice.
20:51
Speaker 1: You know. Sequon talked about that.
20:53
Speaker 4: I caught up with him at the locker room clean
20:55
Speaker 4: out and he was asked by a few people about
20:58
Speaker 4: how he felt, you know, body wise, and he said,
21:02
Speaker 4: all the data and the metrics told him that despite
21:05
Speaker 4: all of the touches that he had.
21:07
Speaker 1: Last year, that he was fresh and good to go. Yep,
21:12
Speaker 1: And the data does back that up. You know, he
21:14
Speaker 1: didn't lose a step or anything like that.
21:16
Speaker 3: No, I agree, one hundred percent agree. Just it's a
21:19
Speaker 3: shame you wasted a year of you know, production.
21:22
Speaker 1: So you know he's got seven hundred touches now in
21:25
Speaker 1: two years with the Eagles.
21:27
Speaker 2: That's that's incredible.
21:29
Speaker 1: That's a workload.
21:30
Speaker 2: That really is.
21:31
Speaker 1: As I wrote in Philly Voice, they have a tank,
21:33
Speaker 1: but they they opt not to drive it. They leave
21:36
Speaker 1: it parked in the driveway.
21:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good way to put it. I mean,
21:39
Speaker 3: it's a sad way to put it, but it's true.
21:41
Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of your pass game stats here.
21:43
Speaker 1: What do you got?
21:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Hertz was twenty for thirty five with the
21:47
Speaker 3: fifty seven point one percent completion percentage, one hundred and
21:50
Speaker 3: sixty eight yards, one touchdowns, your interceptions.
21:53
Speaker 2: He had a minus zero point zero three EPA per dropback.
21:56
Speaker 2: Not great.
21:57
Speaker 3: And then a stat that hurts you know, his signature
21:59
Speaker 3: has hurts that if CPOE, which is complete, your percentage
22:02
Speaker 3: over expected minus seven point eight percent. So he was
22:07
Speaker 3: not putting his receivers in a great spot to make
22:10
Speaker 3: these catches, but also his receivers weren't making routine catches
22:14
Speaker 3: that they should, or if not routine, at least ones
22:17
Speaker 3: that are expected to be caught.
22:19
Speaker 1: YEP, I wonder how much this number is skewed. If
22:22
Speaker 1: AJ Brown maybe catches two of those three balls that
22:25
Speaker 1: he didn't get to, I can't call him drops because
22:27
Speaker 1: one of them didn't even really go after. But just wonder,
22:31
Speaker 1: you know, I wonder too. I mean, I always looked
22:34
Speaker 1: at Hurtz's CPOE when it was last last two years,
22:37
Speaker 1: when it was so high as a combination of him
22:40
Speaker 1: really throwing some accurate balls, especially down the field where
22:44
Speaker 1: those are low percentage throws that he turns into high
22:47
Speaker 1: percentage throws, but also because of having guys like AJ
22:51
Speaker 1: Brown and DeVante Smith who just make unbelievable catches.
22:54
Speaker 3: No, for sure, I one hundred percent agree. That's kind
22:57
Speaker 3: of what that stat always has been saying, is that
23:00
Speaker 3: not only his.
23:01
Speaker 2: Hurt an accurate passer, but his receivers make it easy
23:04
Speaker 2: on him. That's for sure. I love go ahead.
23:09
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I love your Dallas Goddard stat.
23:11
Speaker 1: I would love you to tell people about it.
23:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Goddard was four for seven for fifty fifty
23:18
Speaker 3: seven point one percent thirty three yards, one touchdown plus
23:23
Speaker 3: one rushing touchdown, which is the first of his career,
23:25
Speaker 3: and according to NFL research, Goddard joined Ricky Waters from
23:29
Speaker 3: the ninety five Wild Card versus Detroit as the only
23:31
Speaker 3: player in Eagle's history with one rushing and one receiving
23:34
Speaker 3: touchdown or more in a playoff game.
23:37
Speaker 1: That fascinated me because I could have sworn Brian Westbrook
23:40
Speaker 1: did it, but I'd have to then go back and.
23:42
Speaker 2: Look through the Uh, it feels like he would that.
23:45
Speaker 1: It's almost it's shocking to me that he didn't, you know, Yeah,
23:49
Speaker 1: but that's amazing.
23:51
Speaker 3: And with that, he had plus one point three EPA
23:54
Speaker 3: and minus one point two percent complete radover expected.
23:58
Speaker 2: So he normally he.
24:00
Speaker 1: Doesn't have the hugest like higher you know, croe because
24:04
Speaker 1: a lot of his catches I feel like are schemed
24:07
Speaker 1: and over the middle or there's not like five guys.
24:09
Speaker 2: Around him, you know, yeah, one hundred percent.
24:11
Speaker 1: Like he's expected to catch the passes that are that.
24:13
Speaker 2: Go to him. Correct, that's one hundred percent.
24:16
Speaker 1: Unlike DeVante Smith, who literally you know, is mister plastic
24:19
Speaker 1: man out.
24:20
Speaker 3: Of the field, is incredible. He is incredible. He was
24:23
Speaker 3: eight for eleven seventy two point seven percent seventy yards
24:26
Speaker 3: plus two EPA, but a minus six point four percent
24:30
Speaker 3: completion RATEO for expectation.
24:33
Speaker 1: Interesting.
24:33
Speaker 2: You know, he might be go ahead all the had
24:36
Speaker 2: negative EPO CPOE right.
24:40
Speaker 1: And he might be wide receiver one next year, depending
24:43
Speaker 1: on what happens this offseason.
24:45
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, and we'll get into that at some point,
24:47
Speaker 3: not today, but we'll get uh three for seven forty
24:50
Speaker 3: two point nine percent twenty five yards for mister A J.
24:53
Speaker 3: Brown minus two EPA. So everything that DeVonta Smith added,
24:58
Speaker 3: AJ Brown subtract yep and then minus ten point eight
25:02
Speaker 3: percent completion rate overexpected.
25:05
Speaker 1: So this basically says that AJ Brown did more detriment
25:08
Speaker 1: to the offense by having a negative EPA and a
25:11
Speaker 1: negative catch right over expectation than he did positive for
25:14
Speaker 1: the offense.
25:15
Speaker 2: Correct, yep one. Awesome.
25:20
Speaker 1: Right, Eagles defense, we'll go into the advanced statistics anything
25:27
Speaker 1: jump out to you.
25:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, So if you look at it, the Eagles defense
25:32
Speaker 3: really did not perform well in any category except for
25:35
Speaker 3: run defense.
25:36
Speaker 1: Right.
25:37
Speaker 3: They performed exceedingly well based on their season numbers in
25:41
Speaker 3: rush defense, which is just very uncharacteristic. So going into
25:45
Speaker 3: this game, we talked about how we were concerned about
25:47
Speaker 3: the run defense and not concerned about the past defense
25:50
Speaker 3: at all, when in fact, I guess we should have
25:53
Speaker 3: known the future and it has been the other way around.
25:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, in Paris, the Niners have struggled like the eagle
26:00
Speaker 1: to run the ball all year long. That's why McCaffrey
26:02
Speaker 1: had so many receiving yards.
26:03
Speaker 3: Sure, So yeah, that's that's a surprise. You know, the
26:08
Speaker 3: time before pressure was better. Uh. They did not get
26:12
Speaker 3: the pressure they'd been getting all season. They did not
26:14
Speaker 3: get the sacks they were getting all season. The average
26:16
Speaker 3: separation was about the same.
26:18
Speaker 2: Uh. And actually their run stuff rate was worse.
26:22
Speaker 3: So even though we were even though they were better
26:26
Speaker 3: in run defense, they were not, you know, allowing age
26:29
Speaker 3: large EPA per rush. They were not creating negative EPA
26:34
Speaker 3: per rush as much as they were on the regular season.
26:38
Speaker 1: I was a little surprised to see that their time
26:41
Speaker 1: to pressure was two four four because I felt like
26:43
Speaker 1: they didn't get the kind of pressure that we would
26:46
Speaker 1: ordinarily see. But I do have to give Brock pretty credit.
26:48
Speaker 1: I think he navigates the pocket pretty well. He seems
26:52
Speaker 1: to have a pretty innate sense of just when to
26:55
Speaker 1: release the ball as the pockets closing on him, and
26:58
Speaker 1: to get in those windows. He's a good quarterback.
27:01
Speaker 3: He's a high football IQ quarterback. Yes, perfect for the
27:04
Speaker 3: Shanahan system. His athleticism is just good enough at the
27:09
Speaker 3: NFL level. And he does look a little silly when
27:12
Speaker 3: he runs, especially out of the pocket, but he makes plays.
27:16
Speaker 2: He can't deny that.
27:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not unathletic. I mean he moves well. He
27:19
Speaker 1: does look a little a little awkward in his movements,
27:22
Speaker 1: but he's not slow or concrete footing. No, he's not
27:24
Speaker 1: pretty good athlete.
27:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's no quarterback will look as silly as Kyler Murray.
27:30
Speaker 1: In my mind running he does. Because he's so short.
27:34
Speaker 3: He kind of looks like a toddler having a temperate
27:36
Speaker 3: venture running around. Excuse me, sorry, I didn't expect to
27:39
Speaker 3: take a Kyler Murray shot in this and that wasn't
27:41
Speaker 3: a shot, It just an observation, right, But there you go.
27:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, so like they've done all year, but even more
27:50
Speaker 1: so this game, and you can understand why the Eagles
27:53
Speaker 1: did not stack the box at all four percent. It
27:56
Speaker 1: was probably one of their lowest of the year.
27:58
Speaker 2: And yet they were still really effective.
28:00
Speaker 1: Yeah.
28:01
Speaker 3: Run defense, yep, Yeah, that's definitely a good point.
28:04
Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought that up.
28:06
Speaker 4: Well.
28:06
Speaker 1: It speaks to how strategically vic went about it too,
28:09
Speaker 1: because the Niners play a ton of fullback, so they
28:11
Speaker 1: play a ton of twenty one personnel and a ton
28:14
Speaker 1: of twenty two personnel, and Vick usually counters that with
28:18
Speaker 1: his base, you know, five to two front, takes the
28:20
Speaker 1: nickel off the field and moves Cooper outside. But in
28:23
Speaker 1: this game, he responds to that mostly with nickel, so
28:26
Speaker 1: they were pretty light and he's too high shell almost
28:31
Speaker 1: every snap, least starting that way, so he was he
28:34
Speaker 1: was very confident he could stop the run with a
28:36
Speaker 1: lighter nickel defense, and he was correct.
28:38
Speaker 2: Yep.
28:39
Speaker 1: Just surprisingly, though that nickel defense didn't stop the pass
28:43
Speaker 1: as well as.
28:43
Speaker 2: What you're expected for sure.
28:48
Speaker 1: All right, what other defensive stats jumped out to you here?
28:52
Speaker 3: Marcus Epps, Jordan Davis, Nola Smith led the team and
28:55
Speaker 3: stops with three mm hmm. Moro Jomo was the only
28:59
Speaker 3: Eagles defender to hustle play, which is covering twenty plus
29:02
Speaker 3: yards of the field. Quinnon Mitchell had a rough start.
29:07
Speaker 3: He allowed this first touchdown of the season, but finished
29:09
Speaker 3: with two interceptions four in the postseason despite zero in
29:13
Speaker 3: the regular season. He saves his best for the playoffs,
29:17
Speaker 3: unfortunately wasn't enough.
29:18
Speaker 1: He actually said that that locker room clean out. Somebody
29:21
Speaker 1: brought this to attention, which he knows. He has four
29:23
Speaker 1: playoff picks now and no regular season picks, and he
29:26
Speaker 1: just goes, you know, he's a man A few words,
29:28
Speaker 1: he just goes, save the best for last, I guess,
29:31
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, that is literally what he did.
29:34
Speaker 3: But he also led the team and covered EPA despite
29:37
Speaker 3: allowing the touchdown, which is actually huge. So we talked
29:40
Speaker 3: about what drives EPA. You know, touchdowns allowed, that's automatically
29:45
Speaker 3: you know, minus six right there. But it also interceptions
29:49
Speaker 3: drive it too, very significantly the other way, because you're
29:52
Speaker 3: taking away, you know, scoring opportunities, definitively taking them away. So,
29:58
Speaker 3: you know, him going and allowing it to touchdown and
30:00
Speaker 3: still having a minus four point three EPA is incredible.
30:04
Speaker 1: Yes, And if if he's able to tackle that guy
30:07
Speaker 1: like at the two yard line right and maybe they
30:10
Speaker 1: don't score that, his EPA is probably through the roof.
30:12
Speaker 3: It's probably almost at ten, I would think that point,
30:15
Speaker 3: which would be insane, so crazy, wor worth saying pressure.
30:21
Speaker 3: Zach Bond led the team in pass rush percentage at
30:24
Speaker 3: twenty eight point six percent. I think he only had
30:26
Speaker 3: like eleven pass rushes or something like that. You know
30:30
Speaker 3: players with fourteen plus pass rush attempts. Nolan Smith at
30:33
Speaker 3: eleven point eight percent pressure rate, Moro Jomo at eight
30:36
Speaker 3: point seven percent pressure rate, Jalx Hunt at seven point
30:39
Speaker 3: one percent pressure rate, Jordan Davis at five point nine
30:42
Speaker 3: percent pressure rate, Jalen Carter at five point six percent
30:45
Speaker 3: pressure rate with the sack, and then Jalen Phillips at
30:48
Speaker 3: a really low three point eight percent pressure rate. Not
30:51
Speaker 3: a great game for Jalen Phillips.
30:53
Speaker 1: No, no, and Hunt was good, but even seven percent.
30:56
Speaker 1: I mean, I listen. I said this in the pregame show.
31:00
Speaker 1: I never worry when teams are really down linebackers. I
31:03
Speaker 1: don't think that's a huge issue even for the forty
31:06
Speaker 1: nine ers, right, but if they weren't able to have
31:09
Speaker 1: Trent Williams out there, it would have been to me
31:12
Speaker 1: ten times worse. And they were able to have Trent
31:14
Speaker 1: Williams out there, and I think now one man can't
31:17
Speaker 1: like one man doesn't single handedly shut down an entire
31:20
Speaker 1: pass rush, but I certainly helps with the edge rush.
31:23
Speaker 1: And as you and I just think the way the
31:25
Speaker 1: forty nine ers play defense and workoff play action so
31:28
Speaker 1: much in their run game, even if they don't have
31:30
Speaker 1: a good run game, makes it hard to pressure them
31:32
Speaker 1: because of their quick game, and I think all these
31:35
Speaker 1: stats show it, but I I don't want to give
31:36
Speaker 1: a free passer. I don't think the Eagles did a
31:38
Speaker 1: great job generating pressure.
31:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think so either. It was not one
31:44
Speaker 2: of their better games as the D line.
31:46
Speaker 3: They also the usage was a little bit weird if
31:48
Speaker 3: I remember correctly when I did this data. If you
31:53
Speaker 3: look at how many pass rush attempts they actually had,
31:56
Speaker 3: it's a little bit surprising how they allocated it. So
32:01
Speaker 3: Jalox Hunt only had fourteen pass rush attempts, and that's
32:04
Speaker 3: why I changed it to fourteen, not fifteen, because the
32:06
Speaker 3: Hunt wouldn't have been included. And that was a little
32:08
Speaker 3: bit surprising to me. You know, Nolan Smith had seventeen
32:13
Speaker 3: and Jalen Phillips had twenty six. So it's just it
32:16
Speaker 3: was a little bit surprising in that aspect for sure.
32:19
Speaker 1: That is interesting, especially because I felt like over the
32:22
Speaker 1: last month, I think Hunt was getting far more reps
32:26
Speaker 1: than Smith in the pass rush, So why that was
32:29
Speaker 1: switched up? But don't know.
32:30
Speaker 3: I think part of it was the fact that Jalox
32:34
Speaker 3: Hunt he dropped. It wasn't as much as I thought.
32:36
Speaker 3: He had five coverage snaps. They've been dropping him out
32:39
Speaker 3: for coverage, yes, but that's still not enough to really
32:42
Speaker 3: justify him not being on the field as much as
32:44
Speaker 3: he was.
32:45
Speaker 1: They were waiting for that interception, you know that like
32:48
Speaker 1: he got against Josh Johnson, the two of them that
32:50
Speaker 1: he got against Josh Johnson when he dropped into coverage.
32:53
Speaker 2: One hundred percent. But that, I mean, that's hard to
32:55
Speaker 2: be replicated.
32:55
Speaker 3: But he only played forty eight point three percent of
32:57
Speaker 3: the game at twenty eight snaps. It's interesting, a little
33:01
Speaker 3: bit surprising on that usage, and in fact, he played
33:03
Speaker 3: the same amount as Nolan Smith. Oh and I think
33:07
Speaker 3: Hunt probably should have been on the field more, But
33:09
Speaker 3: that's just me.
33:10
Speaker 1: I'm with you, all right, what's next? I like that
33:13
Speaker 1: you put this together, this uh this look because the
33:16
Speaker 1: Eagles have a The Egles have a ton of free agents.
33:19
Speaker 1: Sam but like I would say, thirty to forty percent
33:22
Speaker 1: of these guys were sort of on one year deals
33:24
Speaker 1: and only here for a year, you know, like your
33:26
Speaker 1: Ausizo Jalaris or us or Okuran Quos. Right Howel Van
33:32
Speaker 1: Sumer and Jahan we knew was going into last year.
33:35
Speaker 1: It's not like they've got eight nine ten core retainers
33:40
Speaker 1: that they have to really worry about, but they do
33:43
Speaker 1: have some big ones.
33:44
Speaker 2: They signed a futures deal with Carson Steele, which I'm
33:46
Speaker 2: actually very excited about.
33:47
Speaker 1: Oh are you okay, but.
33:49
Speaker 3: Listen, if they're going to run a fullback dou car
33:52
Speaker 3: Carson Steel looked great when his first season with the
33:55
Speaker 3: Chiefs and then I don't really know what happened after that,
33:58
Speaker 3: but yeah.
33:58
Speaker 1: It'll be a little fun, I guess competition with him
34:01
Speaker 1: and Van Sumer and okay, yeah, yeah, because these guys
34:05
Speaker 1: are good athletes. Right, And let's say, as you're about
34:08
Speaker 1: to get into let's say you bring in an offensive
34:11
Speaker 1: coordinator who uses a fullback, someone like Mike McDaniel, which
34:15
Speaker 1: I still think is a long shot, but for the
34:17
Speaker 1: sake of the conversation, then you need a guy like
34:21
Speaker 1: or you you know, not just need but like you
34:23
Speaker 1: could really do things with a guy like Van Sumern
34:26
Speaker 1: or Steel or any other fullback that comes in with
34:28
Speaker 1: a little athleticism.
34:30
Speaker 2: Yeah.
34:30
Speaker 3: No, I agree, And it'll be interesting when when they
34:34
Speaker 3: do hire an offensive coordinator, we'll do a podcast for sure,
34:37
Speaker 3: and we'll talk about how that coordinator has performed relative
34:41
Speaker 3: to how the Eagle has performed offensively, and we'll get
34:44
Speaker 3: something good going there. But it will be interesting to
34:48
Speaker 3: see who they hire. I do have a Mike McDaniel
34:51
Speaker 3: shirt that I thought about wearing, but I don't want
34:53
Speaker 3: to endorse any candidate. I honestly don't know if Mike
34:55
Speaker 3: McDaniel is even realistic one or is the best fit
34:59
Speaker 3: to But I do love everything he's done in his
35:02
Speaker 3: you know, body of work.
35:03
Speaker 2: In the NFL.
35:05
Speaker 3: Are any any of the coordinators that they're suggesting. I
35:09
Speaker 3: think brings something new and better to the table. But
35:13
Speaker 3: they just got to hire someone with play calling experience,
35:16
Speaker 3: and I think it's a little unfair to Kevin Bittulo.
35:20
Speaker 2: What was expected of him?
35:21
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.
35:22
Speaker 2: Did he get even close to that?
35:24
Speaker 3: No?
35:25
Speaker 2: And it's just tough. I think it.
35:29
Speaker 3: Feels like a wasted year because they didn't give him
35:33
Speaker 3: time to grow, and it wasn't just it wasn't an
35:36
Speaker 3: environment that was conducive to growth, to be honest with
35:39
Speaker 3: Yet he needed to do the growing before he even
35:41
Speaker 3: stepped in, right.
35:43
Speaker 1: I agree with you. It didn't really hit me until
35:45
Speaker 1: the maybe midway through the year that it's not fair
35:50
Speaker 1: both for Petullo and Brian Johnson, who had never been
35:53
Speaker 1: play callers, that their offensive minded head coach can't throw
35:57
Speaker 1: a life preserver. He's one of the few offensive NFL
36:00
Speaker 1: head coaches who does not call plays and doesn't think
36:02
Speaker 1: he's good at calling plays. So when your young coordinator
36:06
Speaker 1: doing it for the first time may get into a
36:07
Speaker 1: rut or is having trouble figuring it out, he can't
36:10
Speaker 1: say I got you, brother, you know. And in fact
36:13
Speaker 1: it was pretty self owning that in his press conference
36:16
Speaker 1: on Tuesday or I'm sorry Thursday, end of the year,
36:19
Speaker 1: he said, oh, I did help Kevin, you know, I
36:22
Speaker 1: got more involved in the offense. Because that's not a
36:24
Speaker 1: good look for Nick Sirianni now, because the offense didn't
36:27
Speaker 1: look that much better, if at all. It could have
36:29
Speaker 1: been worse if you want at times. So he obviously
36:33
Speaker 1: clearly now has to as long as he's head coach,
36:37
Speaker 1: he has to hire a coordinator who has proven play
36:41
Speaker 1: calling experience this year, Sam, you look into a year
36:45
Speaker 1: where there's like five, six, seven guys who fit that category.
36:49
Speaker 1: Last time, you know, he got called it was really
36:52
Speaker 1: it was really just Kellen Moore and Cliff Kingsbury, right,
36:54
Speaker 1: and they decided they wanted kill him Moore. But what
36:57
Speaker 1: happens when you've only got two or three guys and
37:01
Speaker 1: you may not like one of them for whatever reason,
37:04
Speaker 1: So you've limited your pool, and also you've limited your
37:07
Speaker 1: ability to develop a tree and develop talent because you
37:10
Speaker 1: can't nurture a guy. That's unfair.
37:14
Speaker 3: It is unfair, and it does suck. And I honestly,
37:17
Speaker 3: I know this is not popular opinion, but I do
37:18
Speaker 3: wish Kevin Bittula the best and hopefully he'll get another shot.
37:22
Speaker 1: Oh he'll get a job somewhere.
37:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no, but I think eventually hopefully another offensive coordinator
37:26
Speaker 3: position where he can learn from this. It's just a
37:29
Speaker 3: shame that it turned out the way that it did.
37:32
Speaker 3: Sure on all accounts, for sure.
37:34
Speaker 1: So you put this chart together of free agency, is
37:38
Speaker 1: there anything that jumped out to you that you felt
37:41
Speaker 1: worthy of discussion.
37:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the starters are in bold, and then like
37:45
Speaker 3: the players that contributed significantly and ended up starting a
37:49
Speaker 3: little bit are underlined. I think the ones that are unfortunate,
37:56
Speaker 3: I think to go n Kobe Dean. I don't think
37:59
Speaker 3: they'll be able to resign him, which is a shame
38:01
Speaker 3: because he's been incredible. Yeah, but he's going to get
38:05
Speaker 3: paid somewhere crazy enough. I think Brandon Man is one
38:09
Speaker 3: of the highest priority free agents that the Eagles have.
38:13
Speaker 1: Great here, should have made the Pro Bowl.
38:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's been incredible and if you don't want punting
38:19
Speaker 3: to be an issue, I think signing him should be
38:21
Speaker 3: a priority. Jalen Phillips is a weird case for me
38:25
Speaker 3: because I feel like he definitely deserves another chance to
38:29
Speaker 3: be with VIC and I think he's done really well.
38:32
Speaker 3: But he's not as explosive as he was prior to
38:36
Speaker 3: the a cl and the Achilles injury, which is true.
38:39
Speaker 3: But he's still really productive, so getting him to be
38:42
Speaker 3: retained would not be a bad thing.
38:44
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's going to happen. I'd like
38:47
Speaker 2: to see it. Who knows.
38:49
Speaker 3: Adri Jackson would be a good signing if they could
38:52
Speaker 3: get him cheap, but I also think you can just
38:54
Speaker 3: draft a corner and hopefully I mean that the corner
38:57
Speaker 3: depth is horrible, who knows. And then Dallas Goddard would
39:02
Speaker 3: be another one that I think is important to be retained,
39:06
Speaker 3: but I don't know if that's going to happen, especially
39:08
Speaker 3: with the Mark Andrews extension.
39:10
Speaker 2: I just think he might be too expensive.
39:12
Speaker 1: So I suspect that you are correct about that. I
39:15
Speaker 1: think that we'll see some changes with the offense and
39:18
Speaker 1: it might even be time to really find a true
39:23
Speaker 1: slot receiver instead of trying to shoehorn Johan Dotson into
39:27
Speaker 1: a role that he's really not meant for. He's more
39:29
Speaker 1: of his move z and he's a free agent. Of course,
39:33
Speaker 1: I think missing on an Aya Smith a couple of
39:34
Speaker 1: years ago kind of has hurt them in terms of that.
39:37
Speaker 1: Johnny Wilson will come back. He's not a true slot
39:40
Speaker 1: the way you think of it. He's a good run
39:42
Speaker 1: formation slot, you know, maybe play action guy. But it's
39:45
Speaker 1: kind of time to find that guy.
39:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so too. And it's a shame because
39:49
Speaker 3: you know my relationship with Johan. I want him to
39:52
Speaker 3: succeed and I hope he does succeed wherever he goes next.
39:55
Speaker 2: But I don't think with Eagles.
39:57
Speaker 1: Nope, I don't. But no, like you said, maybe you
40:00
Speaker 1: will see some success with him when he gets into
40:02
Speaker 1: an offense more suited to what he is and one
40:05
Speaker 1: where he's not fifth, you know, and on the totem
40:08
Speaker 1: pole behind you know, two receivers, a tight end and
40:10
Speaker 1: a running back. Yeah, priority of getting the ball. So
40:14
Speaker 1: I think he's actually showed out pretty well. I mean,
40:17
Speaker 1: I'm not saying he's going to go somewhere and be
40:19
Speaker 1: a thousand yard receiver. I think he can be a
40:23
Speaker 1: bigger cog to an offense. I think Howie giving up
40:28
Speaker 1: a third round pick for him was still bad business,
40:31
Speaker 1: even though they felt like they needed somebody. I mean,
40:34
Speaker 1: third round pick is a lot for a guy who
40:36
Speaker 1: only caught like forty balls. But whatever he did, he did,
40:43
Speaker 1: I know everything's gonna go back to, well, they won
40:44
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl.
40:46
Speaker 2: It's such an easy answer, you know.
40:48
Speaker 3: I mean it's hard to judge the process even when you,
40:52
Speaker 3: you know, over compensate on moves when the results are
40:55
Speaker 3: exactly what you want them to be.
40:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it doesn't mean I just keep thinking like
41:00
Speaker 1: Alex hunts a third round pick. Look, how awesome he is. Right,
41:02
Speaker 1: you can't really find some good players in the.
41:04
Speaker 3: Third round, no for sure, for sure, and that's something
41:07
Speaker 3: how he's done pretty consistently in the past couple of years.
41:10
Speaker 2: So true, that not unfair to say.
41:14
Speaker 1: All right, my friend, Oh, Nikobe Deane another third round.
41:17
Speaker 1: I don't want to. I don't want to get on
41:18
Speaker 1: my soapbox here, but it's been fun.
41:21
Speaker 2: We'll have time to do that.
41:22
Speaker 1: I was gonna say that that does sound like a
41:24
Speaker 1: good off season conversation. You've done a great You've done great,
41:27
Speaker 1: great work all year, Sam. I know that our viewers,
41:30
Speaker 1: our listeners really appreciate it, not only the depth of
41:34
Speaker 1: what you put together, but your ability to explain it,
41:36
Speaker 1: what it means, what it doesn't mean, which I think
41:38
Speaker 1: you do a really good job of if you're not
41:40
Speaker 1: married to analytics and thinking that it be all to
41:43
Speaker 1: end all. So really appreciate what you've brought to inside
41:46
Speaker 1: the Birds. It's been a it's been a different viewpoint
41:49
Speaker 1: than we've had in the past. So thank you so
41:50
Speaker 1: much for your work all year.
41:52
Speaker 2: I'm sorry it's to come to an end right.
41:54
Speaker 1: Now, yes, but but it's not all coming to an end.
41:58
Speaker 1: In fact, we did something last I'm glad you sort
42:01
Speaker 1: of said that to remind me I want to have
42:03
Speaker 1: start this now where we can get some mail bags
42:07
Speaker 1: together because I'm sure people are gonna have some analytics
42:09
Speaker 1: and data questions for you, and we'll start doing some
42:12
Speaker 1: inside the Data mail bags pretty soon. So if anybody
42:16
Speaker 1: has a question for Sam from an analytics standpoint, I
42:19
Speaker 1: know last year we got like, Sam, who do you
42:20
Speaker 1: think should be the new like a position coach for
42:24
Speaker 1: then it's got to be analytics and database. Let's keep
42:27
Speaker 1: it to that realm and Sam will be happy to
42:29
Speaker 1: put together your answers and we'll do some some mail
42:33
Speaker 1: bag episodes. So again that's Inside the Birds at gmail
42:36
Speaker 1: dot com. Direct your question to Sam so we know
42:39
Speaker 1: it's an analytics one and ask your question and we
42:42
Speaker 1: will answer it in future episode. So again, Sam, thanks
42:44
Speaker 1: for everything. For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. You've been
42:48
Speaker 1: watching Inside the Data all season long. On Inside the
42:52
Speaker 1: Birds one