Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Interview only w/Ian Bremmer - How the Iran War Reshaped Global Power & Growing Concerns about Putin

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Interview only w/Ian Bremmer - How the Iran War Reshaped Global Power & Growing Concerns about Putin · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: in the world, there's no better voice to at least
2:28
Speaker 1: try to make some sense of it than my friend
2:30
Speaker 1: Ian Bremer from your Raisor group in the G zero
2:35
Speaker 1: newsletter that I know I have told many of you.
2:37
Speaker 1: If you don't subscribe to you're making a mistake. Mister Bremer.
2:41
Speaker 1: Nice to see you, sir, Hey Chuck, it's good to
2:43
Speaker 1: see you man. So as as as is always the
2:49
Speaker 1: case when you come in, I've got a couple of
2:51
Speaker 1: larger theories I want to throw past you, but let's
2:53
Speaker 1: talk about the near term now and Aroan, Look, what
2:58
Speaker 1: do you what do you make of the fact that
3:02
Speaker 1: the Trump administration is allowing the Iranians to spend the
3:06
Speaker 1: deal first, because forget everything else, that is what's happening.
3:10
Speaker 1: The Iranians are filling the vacuum and they're sort of
3:13
Speaker 1: leaking this stuff out. The Trump administration is letting them
3:16
Speaker 1: do it. And what strikes me is intriguing about this
3:19
Speaker 1: is they're usually on the other end of this. It's
3:22
Speaker 1: usually one of their opponents who's being quiet about something,
3:27
Speaker 1: and Trump fills the vacuum and he's allowing the strategy
3:30
Speaker 1: to be used against him and potentially putting him in
3:33
Speaker 1: his own little message box. Yeah.
3:38
Speaker 2: Look, it is hard for the Americans to directly criticize
3:44
Speaker 2: a deal when you don't know what the contents of
3:46
Speaker 2: the deal are. And you know you're right, Chuck. I mean,
3:52
Speaker 2: the one thing we know about Trump is he's not quiet.
3:56
Speaker 2: Right when he does something.
4:00
Speaker 1: He blasted out.
4:02
Speaker 2: But I can think of another incidence in the last
4:06
Speaker 2: week when he actually wanted to be very quiet about
4:10
Speaker 2: some news.
4:11
Speaker 3: Remember when he put his name on the Kennedy Center.
4:14
Speaker 2: It was all over the place, but then when they
4:17
Speaker 2: were taking it down, they had a tarp on it. Right,
4:21
Speaker 2: For some reason, he didn't want everyone looking at the
4:23
Speaker 2: fact that they were taking his name down. And that's
4:25
Speaker 2: exactly what's happening here, right, is that the contents of
4:28
Speaker 2: this deal are unattractive for the United States. They make
4:34
Speaker 2: Trump look weak, They do not come close to meeting
4:41
Speaker 2: any of his war aims. I mean, it is true,
4:45
Speaker 2: of course, that there's no other American president that could
4:48
Speaker 2: have gotten this deal done. There's no other American president
4:51
Speaker 2: that could have gotten Iran to reopen the strait because
4:54
Speaker 2: of course it had never been closed before.
4:57
Speaker 1: So you can give Trump.
4:59
Speaker 2: That But this is the only thing that this deal
5:03
Speaker 2: does is it ends the war and it opens the
5:07
Speaker 2: straight In other words, it does none of the things
5:10
Speaker 2: that Trump went to war four. It just stops the
5:15
Speaker 2: bleeding as the consequence of the decision to go to war.
5:19
Speaker 1: That's all it does, is that. Also, it's funny I
5:21
Speaker 1: found myself doing a when I was sort of criticizing that. Look,
5:28
Speaker 1: he just went about this in a half assed way.
5:30
Speaker 1: Whether you were against him going to war or whether
5:33
Speaker 1: you wanted him to do this, he didn't. There was
5:37
Speaker 1: no strategy to this, and the strategy didn't and if
5:40
Speaker 1: there was, it didn't work. But I said, he does
5:43
Speaker 1: deserve credit for at least to know and to stop digging.
5:47
Speaker 1: Is that about the best praise you can give him here?
5:49
Speaker 2: No, he should have stopped digging weeks ago. My god,
5:55
Speaker 2: I mean, this deal was on offer for a long time.
6:00
Speaker 2: He kept saying I'm going to destroy your civilization, and
6:03
Speaker 2: I'm gonna hit your infrastructure, and I'm going to take
6:05
Speaker 2: your oil and I'm going.
6:06
Speaker 3: To invade carg Island and none of those things happened.
6:09
Speaker 4: What why have we been doing this for for weeks
6:14
Speaker 4: and weeks while the Strait has been closed and everyone
6:19
Speaker 4: has been suffering economically.
6:22
Speaker 1: And so no, I'm this is by look, I'm not
6:28
Speaker 1: I like I said. The only thing worse is if
6:30
Speaker 1: he didn't stop digging. I guess.
6:33
Speaker 2: I mean, no, I could have. I can give you
6:34
Speaker 2: other things that would have been worse. He could have.
6:36
Speaker 2: He could have taken those fifteen thousand troops and actually
6:39
Speaker 2: taken carg Island, which he wanted to do, and his
6:43
Speaker 2: military advisors told him in many different ways, this will
6:46
Speaker 2: go very badly. So and that's I'm glad they told
6:50
Speaker 2: him that, right, I mean. And it's not like Trump
6:53
Speaker 2: can't be successful in foreign policy. Venezuela was wildly successful.
6:56
Speaker 2: Abraham Accord's wildly successful, you know USMCA before he decided
7:02
Speaker 2: he didn't like it, wildly successful. But this has been
7:05
Speaker 2: an astonishing failure. It's exhilarating in how much of a
7:09
Speaker 2: failure this Huran war has been.
7:12
Speaker 1: So what does that mean in the long term? For
7:17
Speaker 1: you know, I was and this gets it too, one
7:19
Speaker 1: of the thesis that was coming up. You know, he
7:21
Speaker 1: is now in three different regions of the world broken
7:27
Speaker 1: essentially an essential pact if you will, that the United
7:31
Speaker 1: States either formally had with that region or informally had
7:34
Speaker 1: with that region, that we were the reliable security partner,
7:38
Speaker 1: whether it's free in democratic Asia, whether it's free in
7:41
Speaker 1: democratic Europe, or whether it's the Middle East.
7:44
Speaker 2: Okay, let me ask you, if that's the start, what
7:49
Speaker 2: packed has he broken in Asia?
7:52
Speaker 1: So that's I'm asking. What I mean by the pact
7:54
Speaker 1: is the idea that America is going to be a
7:56
Speaker 1: reliable security partner that we want to actually cut off
7:59
Speaker 1: to and whether it's You're not sure where America stands
8:03
Speaker 1: on Taiwan, right, So Japan's trying to figure that out.
8:06
Speaker 1: You're not sure. I'm just throwing all that out there
8:09
Speaker 1: in this respect. In the Middle East, the Gulf States
8:13
Speaker 1: and Israel have designed foreign policies for decades assuming a
8:19
Speaker 1: reliable partner in the United States. Does this Iran war?
8:23
Speaker 1: I mean that to me is what it leaves in tatters.
8:26
Speaker 1: I mean, everybody in that region who has relied on
8:29
Speaker 1: the United States now has to wonder what do I
8:32
Speaker 1: do now?
8:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so I think that is the case
8:36
Speaker 2: in the Middle East on the back of this Iran war.
8:40
Speaker 1: It is there's some of that.
8:43
Speaker 2: There was some of that when Trump kicked Zelenski out
8:47
Speaker 2: you and I were talking about it at the time
8:50
Speaker 2: a year ago April, and then suspended intelligence support for Ukraine.
8:56
Speaker 2: That that was a very significant rift. Land stuff was
9:01
Speaker 2: a very significant rift with the Europeans, not to the
9:05
Speaker 2: degree that we're seeing in the Middle East right now.
9:07
Speaker 2: There's nothing that Trump has done in Asia that approaches
9:11
Speaker 2: that in my view. In my view, there's definitely concerns.
9:16
Speaker 2: And I mean when he says, when he says, well,
9:19
Speaker 2: you know, maybe I'll talk about the Taiwan defense deal
9:24
Speaker 2: on the back of my conversations with Chijiping that that,
9:27
Speaker 2: you know, sort of interdependence is something that certainly worries
9:32
Speaker 2: American allies in Asia, but nothing close to Europe and
9:35
Speaker 2: what the Europeans have experienced, nothing close to the Gulf
9:39
Speaker 2: States and the Israelis now because Trump has decided, I've
9:45
Speaker 2: gone to war and I've really undermined all of you
9:49
Speaker 2: in the Gulf, and I've made you very vulnerable, and
9:52
Speaker 2: now I've cut a deal, and that deal doesn't give
9:56
Speaker 2: any of the you know, sort of reliance that the
9:59
Speaker 2: israel Alas wanted on the Iran side, and it makes
10:05
Speaker 2: the Gulf States extremely concerned long term so yeah, I
10:09
Speaker 2: think going forward, if you're in the region, if you're
10:12
Speaker 2: in the Middle East, you've got to think very differently
10:15
Speaker 2: about your security than.
10:16
Speaker 1: You have historically. So as much as and this was
10:21
Speaker 1: very helpful exercise. If you're looking at where is he
10:25
Speaker 1: sort of breached alliances the most, it is the Middle East.
10:29
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, very much so, very much so.
10:31
Speaker 2: So I mean like even like Russia Ukraine, America is
10:34
Speaker 2: no longer paying the Ukrainians off, but the amount of
10:37
Speaker 2: intelligence the US is providing to Ukraine on a real
10:40
Speaker 2: time basis to help them target the Russians is essential.
10:44
Speaker 2: And it's still happening. And you know, yeah, the US
10:47
Speaker 2: is taking five thousand troops out of Germany, But does
10:50
Speaker 2: that really matter for the alliance? No, But what the
10:54
Speaker 2: Americans did in Iran and then the Cutteries and the
10:58
Speaker 2: Saudis and the Emris, he's getting directly hit by the
11:02
Speaker 2: Iranians and now the United States basically saying.
11:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, Okay, we're gonna end the war and.
11:08
Speaker 2: You guys can figure out this other stuff that like
11:10
Speaker 2: ballistic missiles, nuclear program, all the rest. You figure that out,
11:15
Speaker 2: because we can't. We can't do that, right. That is
11:20
Speaker 2: that's a very very serious that's an existential issue for
11:24
Speaker 2: the countries that have relied on the United States for
11:28
Speaker 2: their security in the Middle East.
11:31
Speaker 1: So you know when we saw Canada and we saw
11:35
Speaker 1: Mark Carney do this, Hey, it's time for the Middle
11:37
Speaker 1: Powers to sort of start to worry about things on
11:40
Speaker 1: their own. He can't rely on the United States. And
11:43
Speaker 1: he's well speaking more in the I think more in
11:46
Speaker 1: an economic security sense, not in a national security sense.
11:51
Speaker 1: What do the Gulf States do here?
11:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, because again Canada and I you know, I talked
11:56
Speaker 2: to Mark all the time I was up in Canada
11:59
Speaker 2: last week, and I mean, seventy cents of every defense
12:03
Speaker 2: dollar in Canada ghost the United States.
12:04
Speaker 1: And you know, in ten years now that isn't broken.
12:07
Speaker 1: The defense partnership is not broken with Canada. It's our
12:09
Speaker 1: economic partnership. Well it's funny.
12:11
Speaker 2: I mean they the Canadians are now talking a lot
12:14
Speaker 2: more about spending that money inside Canada. So I mean
12:17
Speaker 2: it is part of their economic relationship, is the point, right,
12:21
Speaker 2: I mean, and doing more with the Europeans and on trade.
12:25
Speaker 2: You know, they're trying, they're they're rebuilding India and they're
12:28
Speaker 2: stabilizing China. But still ultimately it's the US right, I mean,
12:33
Speaker 2: because you can't change your geography. In the case of
12:36
Speaker 2: the golf right, I mean, their geography is the Strait.
12:41
Speaker 1: Their geography is the.
12:43
Speaker 2: Iranians have now shown they can shut this thing down,
12:46
Speaker 2: and they can do it without the Americans being able
12:49
Speaker 2: to stop them. So what are they going to do
12:54
Speaker 2: with the United States going forward? And it depends a
12:58
Speaker 2: lot on which countries. What I see happening is the
13:02
Speaker 2: Gulf essentially splitting into two competing blocks, and one of
13:07
Speaker 2: those blocks is you could call the Abrahamic block, and
13:13
Speaker 2: it is the UAE feeling like the Israelis are their
13:18
Speaker 2: top ally helping defend them and go into war with
13:23
Speaker 2: the Iranians with them, right, I mean, the UAE has
13:26
Speaker 2: also been fighting together with Israel against.
13:33
Speaker 1: Iran they are.
13:35
Speaker 2: The more that the Iranians are aggressive, the more the
13:38
Speaker 2: UAE feels like they have to double down on that relationship.
13:42
Speaker 2: They will be core tech, intelligence and defense partners with
13:48
Speaker 2: the United States in the region. That will not be broken,
13:51
Speaker 2: It will only strengthen. They will also align more with
13:54
Speaker 2: the Indians, they will align more with Greece. They've left Opek,
13:59
Speaker 2: so they will expect expand.
14:02
Speaker 1: There is that's something you expected. Has that it's been
14:05
Speaker 1: threatened now no, no, no, no, that came because of
14:07
Speaker 1: the war.
14:08
Speaker 2: And again that is the Emoradis saying, you know what,
14:13
Speaker 2: this war shows that the world is going to move
14:18
Speaker 2: much faster away from oil and gas because anyone can
14:22
Speaker 2: disrupt this stuff, whether it's in the Strait of Ormuz
14:25
Speaker 2: or it's the Red Sea or the Malacca Straits. And
14:28
Speaker 2: for all of those reasons, we we can't constrain our
14:32
Speaker 2: oil export. We need to get as much out as
14:34
Speaker 2: soon as possible and get that money.
14:37
Speaker 1: We don't want stranded assets.
14:39
Speaker 2: And because the Emioradis are not a regional power, they're not.
14:44
Speaker 1: They're not a power in the Middle East.
14:45
Speaker 3: They're a global city state.
14:48
Speaker 2: They've got ten million people, one million of whom are Amoradis.
14:52
Speaker 1: They're not a friend described I had a friend described
14:55
Speaker 1: to you. A to me is it's more like going
14:58
Speaker 1: to somebody's really nice house and as long as you
15:00
Speaker 1: play by their rules, you'll be fine. But remember it's
15:04
Speaker 1: a nice house, but it's more like somebody's personal property
15:08
Speaker 1: than it is a country. Oh yeah, thrown by a family.
15:11
Speaker 2: But by the way, it's increasingly run very effectively and
15:15
Speaker 2: very efficiently with a lot They're bringing some of the
15:17
Speaker 2: smartest young people from all around the world to engage and.
15:21
Speaker 1: They love themselves a good mackenzy contractor, that's for sure.
15:24
Speaker 1: Oh much more than that.
15:25
Speaker 2: I mean, the Saudis have incredible mckensey contractors. I mean
15:28
Speaker 2: these guys are actually building those capabilities inside their ministries
15:32
Speaker 2: and it is a revolution what they have done internally
15:37
Speaker 2: to build a world class city state in the last
15:40
Speaker 2: forty years, very much analogous to what the Singaporeans have done.
15:46
Speaker 1: We's just going to say it sounds a lot like
15:47
Speaker 1: Singapore and its like but they're bigger. But they're bigger,
15:51
Speaker 1: so you've got that.
15:52
Speaker 2: And they're in the Middle East, so which is more
15:55
Speaker 2: which turns out to be there.
15:56
Speaker 1: They're going to be a powers They're going to stay
15:58
Speaker 1: in Israel and you see that bond tightening.
16:01
Speaker 2: Is I do, And I also see the UAE being
16:04
Speaker 2: more external and outward focused. They're going to look to
16:09
Speaker 2: invest in and connect with much more the top everything
16:15
Speaker 2: from all over the world, and.
16:16
Speaker 1: They want to cut They'll cut deals with China and
16:18
Speaker 1: they'll cut deals with the United States, right.
16:19
Speaker 2: They will, but from a military and tech and AI perspective,
16:23
Speaker 2: they will be American first, an American first American. The
16:28
Speaker 2: Saudis have thirty five million people. They're almost all Saudis.
16:33
Speaker 2: The Saudis, remember UAE run by MBZ, not going anywhere,
16:38
Speaker 2: very popular inside the country. He's got control Saudi Arabia
16:42
Speaker 2: run by MBS, young guy, not going anywhere. He's there
16:45
Speaker 2: for generations, right, and he's incredibly popular among the young people.
16:52
Speaker 1: He is transforming this country.
16:54
Speaker 2: He's bringing women into the workplace in ways we've never
16:57
Speaker 2: seen before. He's changing society. He got rid of the
17:00
Speaker 2: religious police and there, and they're you know, tight control
17:05
Speaker 2: over how society is actually manifest. He is trying to
17:10
Speaker 2: invest overwhelmingly in Saudi Arabia, and he has an Arab
17:15
Speaker 2: street and that country it's a Muslim country, right, it's
17:20
Speaker 2: a Muslim population. And their principal ally in this war
17:26
Speaker 2: has been Pakistan. Pakistan sent thirteen thousand troops on the
17:31
Speaker 2: ground to Saudi Arabia and an air force, and they've
17:34
Speaker 2: got a nuclear program that the Saudis funded, right, and
17:40
Speaker 2: so that that's their nuclear umbrella. That's what ultimately protects
17:44
Speaker 2: them and they're much more aligned with the Turks, They're
17:47
Speaker 2: much more aligned with the Egyptians. And this is Saudi
17:50
Speaker 2: Arabia as controlling Opek, producing oil at major scale, second
17:57
Speaker 2: producers in the world after the United States. They want
18:00
Speaker 2: to be the large scale producer at the cheapest cost,
18:04
Speaker 2: much cheaper than the United States for the next decades
18:07
Speaker 2: when the world is still going to need oil and gas,
18:10
Speaker 2: though in lower and lower amounts. And they are driving
18:17
Speaker 2: a regional strategy, a Muslim block strategy that they are
18:23
Speaker 2: the dominant players in. And by the way, they're close
18:28
Speaker 2: to Trump and close to Jared and there's a lot
18:31
Speaker 2: of money there. But they don't necessarily think that they're
18:35
Speaker 2: going to be close to the Americans if the Democrats
18:37
Speaker 2: win in twenty twenty eight. Heck, I don't think they
18:40
Speaker 2: think they're going to be close to the Americans, even
18:43
Speaker 2: if it was the Republicans, if it was someone like
18:45
Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson. And the Saudis are going to hedge much
18:49
Speaker 2: more towards China. Their missile program is already a Chinese
18:53
Speaker 2: program because the Americans wouldn't sell the Tomahawks after nine
18:57
Speaker 2: to eleven. So I mean, for me, I see this is,
19:01
Speaker 2: and this is a major consequence of the break into
19:07
Speaker 2: two completely different blocks. And nothing like that's happening in Asia,
19:12
Speaker 2: nothing like that's happening in Europe, right, I mean, the
19:14
Speaker 2: EU is only getting more aligned, frankly, and it's expanding.
19:18
Speaker 2: More countries want to join the EU. Asians aren't going
19:21
Speaker 2: anywhere but the Middle East. That's where you're seeing a
19:24
Speaker 2: real geopolitical change.
19:27
Speaker 1: So everybody else starts to take sides that's not in
19:31
Speaker 1: that in the Middle East? Then, right, what does cutter do? Yeah,
19:35
Speaker 1: I think that's right.
19:37
Speaker 2: I think that they also have to start figuring out
19:40
Speaker 2: how to make sure that they have a deal of
19:44
Speaker 2: their own with the Iranians. The Cutteries, you know, took
19:47
Speaker 2: twenty billion dollars of damage from Iran with their gas
19:52
Speaker 2: fields that they share with the Iranians. There is a
19:55
Speaker 2: single gas field, you know, cut down the middle basically
19:59
Speaker 2: by the territorial divide between these two sovereign nations, and
20:04
Speaker 2: they paid the Iranians off to promise not to attack
20:08
Speaker 2: them again going forward. So the Cutteries have to be
20:10
Speaker 2: very careful and they surely thinking about you know, what's
20:13
Speaker 2: the purpose, what's the vulnerability of USS to have major
20:17
Speaker 2: US base in Cutter going forward.
20:22
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say that was considered a good
20:25
Speaker 1: thing for that country. Yeah, they regard this suddenly it's
20:28
Speaker 1: a vulnerability. Yeah, they have made a big bet on
20:33
Speaker 1: the United States, right, but.
20:35
Speaker 2: They now need to they need to ensure that the
20:38
Speaker 2: Iranians don't attack them, and the Americans by themselves are
20:42
Speaker 2: uncapable and unwilling to provide those guarantees.
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Speaker 1: so use that code. Seems to me this is a
22:27
Speaker 1: pretty bad domestic political situation at the moment for mister
22:30
Speaker 1: Neetya in is.
22:31
Speaker 2: Let's say you think that's right now, you know, keep
22:34
Speaker 2: in mind this deal that is being struck by the
22:41
Speaker 2: United States in Iran includes an end to hostilities in Lebanon.
22:47
Speaker 2: But the Israelis and for that matter, has the Law,
22:51
Speaker 2: are not signatories to the MoU so. I mean that
22:57
Speaker 2: raises a question because obviously Israel's being pressured by the
23:01
Speaker 2: United States to stomp. But Bib is very uncomfortable with that.
23:08
Speaker 2: He is hemorrhaging support of his own lacued party from
23:13
Speaker 2: all of the Israelis that live in the north of
23:15
Speaker 2: the country who are on the receiving end of missile
23:19
Speaker 2: strikes from Hesbelah. Now, Israel is not going to withdraw
23:25
Speaker 2: from the territory that they have occupied in the past
23:27
Speaker 2: weeks in Lebanon. But the question is will they stop
23:32
Speaker 2: striking Lebanon?
23:34
Speaker 1: Will they stop striking Iran?
23:36
Speaker 2: And if I mean the thing about Hezebelah, I mean
23:39
Speaker 2: I mentioned Hesbelah is not a signatory, but Hesbelah unlike Israel,
23:43
Speaker 2: I mean Israel. There's a lot of US influence over Israel.
23:46
Speaker 2: But you wouldn't say this control. You would say there's
23:49
Speaker 2: Iranian operational control of Hesbelah military decision making.
23:56
Speaker 3: And so to the extent that Iran is on board
23:59
Speaker 3: with this.
24:00
Speaker 2: Deal, they can tell Hasbelah you're not allowed to actually
24:04
Speaker 2: hit the Israelis, and presumably that is something that they
24:08
Speaker 2: are going to do for at least a period of time.
24:12
Speaker 3: But if they change their mind because they.
24:15
Speaker 2: Don't like the way the deal is going, or they
24:17
Speaker 2: don't like the pressure they're getting from the Americans, then
24:21
Speaker 2: that decision will immediately lead to the Israelis to engaging
24:26
Speaker 2: in strikes in retaliation, which might well be much bigger
24:30
Speaker 2: than the strikes that are launched by Hasblah, and that
24:33
Speaker 2: in turn could undermine the deal. So essentially, the Iranians
24:38
Speaker 2: have a bank shot because of the Israeli positioning on
24:42
Speaker 2: all of this, to unwind this at any moment going
24:46
Speaker 2: forward if they choose to.
24:49
Speaker 1: Well, it sounds like so, but Israel can unwind this.
24:51
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. But the Iranians can force the
24:54
Speaker 2: Israelis to unwinke.
24:57
Speaker 1: Exactly well. And are is the United States suddenly powerless
25:02
Speaker 1: and all this?
25:03
Speaker 2: But not powerless, of course not, but the United States
25:08
Speaker 2: there's a lot of options here.
25:09
Speaker 3: Well, the United States has decided that they really don't
25:14
Speaker 3: want to continue this war, that they really want the
25:18
Speaker 3: straight open, and they wanted to stay open. So, I mean,
25:21
Speaker 3: the US has hit really hard the Iranians killed the
25:25
Speaker 3: supreme leader, you know, killed all these leaders in the country,
25:29
Speaker 3: and so hit. I mean, the American military punch is
25:32
Speaker 3: greater than anybody else, but it turns out the Americans
25:36
Speaker 3: are incapable of taking a punch. We saw that when
25:38
Speaker 3: the Chinese hit back against the US after Liberation Day.
25:42
Speaker 3: We're now seeing that when the Iranians hit back against
25:46
Speaker 3: the Gulf States and against the Strait and and Trump
25:50
Speaker 3: has been focused on an off ramp for the last
25:55
Speaker 3: five six weeks.
25:56
Speaker 2: No matter what he says, watch what he does. He's
25:59
Speaker 2: the only time he really used the military since that ceasefire,
26:05
Speaker 2: when it was clear that Trump wanted this to be over,
26:07
Speaker 2: was after a US helicopter was shot a week ago,
26:11
Speaker 2: shot down.
26:12
Speaker 1: It was just into self defense. It was in retallity.
26:14
Speaker 2: Was essentially yeah, I mean, you kind of knew that
26:17
Speaker 2: this was Trump using the military, but he wasn't risking
26:19
Speaker 2: further escalation because the Iranians were the ones that hit first.
26:23
Speaker 2: So it's very clear if you're the Iranians here, it's
26:27
Speaker 2: very clear that Trump does not want anymore military engagement region.
26:35
Speaker 1: Now let's talk about Iron and there have been reports
26:38
Speaker 1: that the IRGC's somehow perhaps more ideological, has more sort
26:46
Speaker 1: of Is that the case and are they really running
26:50
Speaker 1: the show?
26:52
Speaker 2: I think it's incredible to watch Trump and JD Vance
26:56
Speaker 2: in the past forty eight hours talking about how the
27:02
Speaker 2: Iranians have now realized the mistakes of their ways for
27:06
Speaker 2: the last forty seven years.
27:10
Speaker 1: Have you been able to laugh at those comments? Or
27:12
Speaker 1: do you cry when you hear this?
27:14
Speaker 2: You know it's it's amused. I mean in the sense
27:17
Speaker 2: that yes, they have learned the mistakes.
27:20
Speaker 1: They've learned that. Actually they should have disrupted.
27:22
Speaker 2: The straight a long time ago, because that's where their
27:24
Speaker 2: real leverage is.
27:25
Speaker 1: Forget the nuke, Forget nukes. The straight was the whole.
27:29
Speaker 2: Kay turns out that nukes are less essential, or at
27:33
Speaker 2: least imminently essential for the Iranians. But I don't think
27:37
Speaker 2: that was That's not the point that JD's trying to make.
27:39
Speaker 2: He's trying to make. No, we can find a way
27:41
Speaker 2: to engage, we can do a deal with these guys.
27:43
Speaker 2: We can build some trust with the Islamic Republic, trust
27:47
Speaker 2: with the Islamis.
27:48
Speaker 1: Imagine if Barack Obama had said that, what would the
27:51
Speaker 1: right have said? It's insanity?
27:54
Speaker 2: And again I don't consider myself left to right, but
27:57
Speaker 2: it's objectively insane the idea that suddenly, after having assassinated
28:03
Speaker 2: their leaders, that this Islamic republic led by Mushtabahameni, the son,
28:08
Speaker 2: the injured son whose family has been killed by the
28:12
Speaker 2: Americans in the Israeli suddenly is going to engage in
28:14
Speaker 2: a relationship of trust with the United States.
28:17
Speaker 3: It's on its face ludicrous.
28:19
Speaker 1: So no, that is not what is happening.
28:23
Speaker 2: And the sad the true sadness here, The true sadness.
28:29
Speaker 3: Is that the ninety million people of Iran.
28:32
Speaker 2: Right have been brutalized all the way through, and they're
28:37
Speaker 2: now facing a regime that will continue to treat them
28:41
Speaker 2: with horror, and and no one is coming to their rescue.
28:48
Speaker 1: Was there a strategy the United States could have pursued
28:53
Speaker 1: that would have assisted the people to help them topple
28:55
Speaker 1: their I don't think so. Is there a realistic stread
28:58
Speaker 1: that from day one?
28:59
Speaker 2: I mean, if you were not prepared to have boots
29:02
Speaker 2: on the ground to enforce a regime change operation which
29:06
Speaker 2: which certainly the American people would have strongly opposed, and
29:10
Speaker 2: which Trump wanted no part of, but absent that the
29:16
Speaker 2: idea that you're going to give weapons to the Kurds
29:19
Speaker 2: and they're going to fight for all of this, or
29:21
Speaker 2: that the Iranian people with you know, disorganized, very courageous,
29:26
Speaker 2: but nonetheless facing a very brutal and capable Iranian regime.
29:32
Speaker 3: I thought that was never a likely prospect of regime change.
29:37
Speaker 1: Never is. Are we going to look back in five
29:42
Speaker 1: years and say that the biggest consequence of this, of
29:45
Speaker 1: this Iran War was to bring Iran back essentially legitimize
29:55
Speaker 1: this regime because now you're going to have individual countries
29:59
Speaker 1: decide they got to make their own deal of Iran,
30:02
Speaker 1: and every individual deal that happens only legitimizes the regime more.
30:06
Speaker 1: I hope not.
30:07
Speaker 2: I agree with you, Chuck, it is plausible that that
30:10
Speaker 2: could happen.
30:12
Speaker 1: But I mean, it's.
30:13
Speaker 2: Not like the Iranian government is full of competent people
30:19
Speaker 2: that know how to run an economy.
30:21
Speaker 1: There's still a water crisis in Tehran right very like
30:26
Speaker 1: it does feel as if, you know, on one hand,
30:28
Speaker 1: I know that we sit here and we're like, in
30:31
Speaker 1: some ways impressed with their ability to take the punches
30:35
Speaker 1: that they've taken. Yeah, at the same time, this was
30:38
Speaker 1: a country that was just not just abusing its people,
30:42
Speaker 1: but neglecting them. That's right.
30:43
Speaker 2: And their infrastructure has taken an enormous beating, and so
30:47
Speaker 2: the economy is going to be in much worse shape,
30:49
Speaker 2: even though they've been able to sell a lot of
30:51
Speaker 2: oil in the early days.
30:52
Speaker 1: Of this war.
30:53
Speaker 2: Another of the ironies is that while the Americans are
30:55
Speaker 2: hitting them hard, they also allow them to get the
30:58
Speaker 2: oil through the Strait to keep the prices low. So
31:00
Speaker 2: they could be in worse economic condition if it was
31:03
Speaker 2: like Cuba, but it's not because a lot of people,
31:06
Speaker 2: including the US, still need the stuff that's coming out
31:08
Speaker 2: of Iran. I fear that it's it's not going It
31:16
Speaker 2: would be nice if in a year's time of two
31:19
Speaker 2: years time, you know, the Iranians becoming less capable at
31:24
Speaker 2: the national level, the gang that can't shoot straight with
31:28
Speaker 2: all of the internal challenges, that the Iranian people start
31:31
Speaker 2: to actually rise up.
31:32
Speaker 3: I don't I wouldn't make a bet on it.
31:36
Speaker 2: I think it's more likely they muddle through, but that
31:39
Speaker 2: they're not suddenly like the new superpower in the regions,
31:42
Speaker 2: just that they're more stable and more countries end up
31:45
Speaker 2: dealing with them. That I don't think that legitimizes them globally,
31:48
Speaker 2: certainly because so many of their proxies have been you know,
31:51
Speaker 2: also hurt. And I think Israel will still engage in
31:54
Speaker 2: strikes against Iran going forward, and again the Amoradis will
31:58
Speaker 2: be with.
31:58
Speaker 1: The Israelis on that.
31:59
Speaker 2: Now, the biggest consequence of this war, even bigger than
32:06
Speaker 2: the split of the golf into two competing blocks, is
32:10
Speaker 2: that the world is going to move much faster away
32:14
Speaker 2: from oil and gas. This is really going to accelerate
32:20
Speaker 2: the move to electric vehicles and batteries and solar and
32:25
Speaker 2: win the.
32:27
Speaker 1: Number of countries. You know, we didn't cover it very
32:29
Speaker 1: well in the American media, and I'm saying that is criticism.
32:32
Speaker 1: We don't cover international news collectively very well in the
32:35
Speaker 1: American media. The number of smaller countries that were so
32:39
Speaker 1: dependent on oil from the Middle East and now realize
32:43
Speaker 1: they've got to come up. I mean, the one of
32:46
Speaker 1: the unintended consequences you're pointing out, and this economically in
32:49
Speaker 1: the near term is really going to benefit China, right.
32:51
Speaker 1: That's because they've cornered the market on renewables and reusables
32:55
Speaker 1: and we've retreated here in the United States, so that
32:59
Speaker 1: the former is true.
33:02
Speaker 2: The US retreat so certainly you are no longer seeing
33:06
Speaker 2: policy support for renewables.
33:09
Speaker 1: You know, government support for it, yes, But but.
33:11
Speaker 2: You know, with the incredible and voracious energy demand of
33:19
Speaker 2: data centers for the AI hyperscalers, that is leading a
33:24
Speaker 2: lot of new renewable energy investment, that's going to lead
33:29
Speaker 2: to a lot of nuclear investment in the United States.
33:33
Speaker 2: And and the fact that the Chinese are dominant, just
33:36
Speaker 2: like on critical minerals. Now the Americans are paying attention.
33:40
Speaker 2: This will the Americans will be late, but it will
33:43
Speaker 2: it will probably course correct. So I think that in
33:46
Speaker 2: ten years time you and I may well look back
33:50
Speaker 2: and say Trump did more to promote the green transition
33:54
Speaker 2: than any president in US history.
33:57
Speaker 1: At a weird way. But no, I've always said, I said,
34:01
Speaker 1: the Trump presidency is going to be a huge benefit
34:03
Speaker 1: to US going forward because it is exposed. It's been
34:07
Speaker 1: an tremendous MRI for the political system. Europe is realizing
34:11
Speaker 1: what an MR. You know, it is making everybody think
34:14
Speaker 1: of think of things that they didn't think about and
34:18
Speaker 1: they probably should have and they now need to do.
34:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, you know, it's like having energy that
34:23
Speaker 2: Canadians need to diversify their trade.
34:25
Speaker 3: This will make them stronger. It's smart.
34:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, hiring a really good home inspector and finding out
34:29
Speaker 1: Oh wow, okay, we have a term my problem here,
34:31
Speaker 1: we are at this here, we got to we have
34:33
Speaker 1: to plug those holes. One more question on the Middle
34:37
Speaker 1: East and then I want to shift to North Korea
34:42
Speaker 1: here a little bit. So where is China in This
34:47
Speaker 1: is spotty their main partner are they do they see
34:50
Speaker 1: opportunity in taking advantage of this sort of of The
34:54
Speaker 1: United States is not going to be in retreating the
34:55
Speaker 1: Middle East. They just are not going to be as
34:58
Speaker 1: universally influential as I had been.
35:01
Speaker 2: So the Chinese are not a military factor in the
35:05
Speaker 2: Middle East, and they don't want to be do that.
35:08
Speaker 2: They're not really capable of it in the near term.
35:12
Speaker 2: They were not a principal component of the negotiations the
35:17
Speaker 2: way that Pakistan and Cutter has been. But the Chinese
35:22
Speaker 2: have no enemies in the Middle East at all. They've
35:24
Speaker 2: got actually good and stable relations with every country out there,
35:30
Speaker 2: and they're only becoming more important for those countries because
35:34
Speaker 2: of China's technology, because of China's commercial heft, their trade,
35:40
Speaker 2: their investment, and that's going to grow. The Chinese were
35:45
Speaker 2: the ones that facilitated the Iran reprochmant with Saudi Arabia
35:53
Speaker 2: in Beijing before the war happened, and they certainly will be.
35:57
Speaker 1: Doing more of that going forwards.
36:00
Speaker 2: So on balance, I think that China's equities will rise
36:04
Speaker 2: with everybody, and there will be certain countries that they
36:08
Speaker 2: will be seen as a much more significant hedge as
36:11
Speaker 2: a consequence.
36:12
Speaker 1: I want to ask about North Korea because when you
36:14
Speaker 1: think about Trump's first term, the most you know, look,
36:18
Speaker 1: he was the thing that I think some people are
36:22
Speaker 1: attracted to Trump for is that he's willing to do
36:25
Speaker 1: things that others, you know, he's willing to sort of
36:27
Speaker 1: and sitting down and talking with the North Koreans directly
36:30
Speaker 1: right was something like, great, why you know what, why
36:33
Speaker 1: not right the other way? Has it worked? Ye? Try this?
36:37
Speaker 2: And he got He got the freeze for freeze on
36:41
Speaker 2: military tests, military exercises and batistic missile tests at the time.
36:46
Speaker 2: That was actually even though he didn't coordinate it with
36:49
Speaker 2: the South Koreans and Japanese and advance and really should
36:51
Speaker 2: have because it undermined the relationship and the trust, but
36:55
Speaker 2: it was an actual advance in state that relationship.
37:01
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Speaker 1: and rates may vary. I want you for a little
38:46
Speaker 1: bit of a BS detector here. There's been some pretty
38:49
Speaker 1: interesting coverage of North Korea lately about how Yanyang is
38:54
Speaker 1: a changing city, the amount of money that the country's
38:58
Speaker 1: made in exporting some of its defense, in some of
39:02
Speaker 1: its arms, essentially selling troops to the Russians born in
39:06
Speaker 1: Ukraine has really benefited North Korea's economy and only strengthened
39:11
Speaker 1: them more. And they've been doing more testing, I think
39:13
Speaker 1: launched more missile tests lately than they ever have before.
39:18
Speaker 1: What do we make of that? And what's the you know,
39:20
Speaker 1: we're there's a lot of failed opportunities here in trying
39:25
Speaker 1: to restrain the North Koreans in history, but what kind
39:32
Speaker 1: of mistake was made here? It does seem that way.
39:37
Speaker 1: And look, I.
39:43
Speaker 2: Think that the North Koreans clearly take advantage of a
39:48
Speaker 2: geopolitical vacuum, I mean rogue states and organizations all over
39:55
Speaker 2: the world. If you don't have a global sheriff, if
39:59
Speaker 2: you don't have a global if you have fragmentation, if
40:01
Speaker 2: you have taught you can talk about middle powers, but
40:04
Speaker 2: there isn't a middle power there. There there's no coherence
40:07
Speaker 2: or strategy or a lion and alliance. Then a country
40:10
Speaker 2: like North Korea can get away with more. And when
40:14
Speaker 2: the Russians invaded the Ukraine and the Ukrainians and they
40:19
Speaker 2: started failing, the North Korean saw an opportunity not just
40:23
Speaker 2: to be close to China, but also Okay, we can
40:27
Speaker 2: balance these forces out now.
40:29
Speaker 1: It's very interesting to me.
40:30
Speaker 2: You know, Shijinping just went to Pyongyang last week. It
40:35
Speaker 2: was his first trip there in seven years, and my
40:38
Speaker 2: understanding is the reason he made that trip is because
40:42
Speaker 2: she understands that the war in Ukraine is going badly
40:45
Speaker 2: for Putin wants it to be over. Had Putin in
40:49
Speaker 2: Beijing said we're willing to play a role to get
40:53
Speaker 2: a ceasefire going, and got nothing back from the Russians,
40:57
Speaker 2: And so Shijin Ping went to Pyongyang to see if
41:01
Speaker 2: if he could maybe get some better intel and maybe
41:05
Speaker 2: align on how to try to rain Putin back in
41:11
Speaker 2: a very self destructive and dangerous war. In many ways,
41:16
Speaker 2: Putin is becoming more dangerous on the global stage and unstable.
41:22
Speaker 1: Then because he's losing, right than Kim Jong un. And
41:26
Speaker 1: and that's a that's a really minute that is that
41:29
Speaker 1: is an incredible statement that Putin is right now potentially
41:32
Speaker 1: more dangerous than Kim Jong un.
41:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, because I mean because Russia has.
41:38
Speaker 1: Make exactly a ton of sense. I means, have put
41:42
Speaker 1: Moscow in their sights, right.
41:44
Speaker 2: That's right, that's right, and no one can do that
41:46
Speaker 2: or would do that with Pyongyang, and you know you've
41:50
Speaker 2: got I mean, the fact is that the Russians are
41:53
Speaker 2: all in against an enemy that suddenly is far more
41:58
Speaker 2: potent than they had possibly imagined. And Putin is getting old,
42:03
Speaker 2: and he doesn't listen to anyone. He gets bad information, right,
42:07
Speaker 2: He's basically in a bunker. I mean, you know, Putin
42:10
Speaker 2: is in some ways talking to fewer world leaders on
42:12
Speaker 2: a regular basis.
42:15
Speaker 1: Then.
42:16
Speaker 2: I mean, you saw Putin and Kim Jong un on
42:18
Speaker 2: that stage with Xi Jinping.
42:21
Speaker 3: I mean it's at this point.
42:23
Speaker 2: You know, Putin may have five thousand nukes, but the
42:28
Speaker 2: difference between five thousand nukes and like twenty nukes in
42:30
Speaker 2: this environment is not as great as you might think.
42:35
Speaker 1: You can do a lot of damage with twenty, I know.
42:38
Speaker 2: And I mean, look of all of the things out
42:41
Speaker 2: there that I worry about geopolitically, I'm not talking about technology,
42:46
Speaker 2: AI and all the rest, but just pure geopolitics. The
42:49
Speaker 2: one thing that could go very very badly that would
42:52
Speaker 2: suddenly ruin the global economy is if Putin decides to
42:56
Speaker 2: use a nuclear weapon as a consequence of this war
42:59
Speaker 2: in Ukraine.
43:00
Speaker 1: Uh, And that happen, doesn't It sounds like you're more
43:05
Speaker 1: worried than ever about his state of mind.
43:07
Speaker 3: I am, I am. I'm very worried about his state
43:10
Speaker 3: of mind.
43:10
Speaker 2: I'm very worried about the fact that you know, Saint
43:13
Speaker 2: Petersburg is directly targeted when he is there hosting his
43:17
Speaker 2: own davos. I'm very worried that he seems to be
43:21
Speaker 2: completely unmoored from the reality of what is happening on
43:25
Speaker 2: the ground between his country and Ukraine and only doubling down.
43:28
Speaker 3: I worry that his top advisors.
43:30
Speaker 2: Are incapable of actually in any way hitting him back,
43:36
Speaker 2: and that he is spending more and more time isolated
43:38
Speaker 2: from his people, from his military, and from his government
43:42
Speaker 2: all And he looks he looks a lot older now
43:45
Speaker 2: than he did three years ago, five years ago, ten
43:47
Speaker 2: years ago.
43:48
Speaker 1: He looks frail. All of those things worried me. If
43:53
Speaker 1: you were advising the next president of the United States,
43:55
Speaker 1: would you tell him your biggest geopolitical risk right now
43:57
Speaker 1: in the near term is Russia? Sure?
43:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just again, from a tail risk perspective.
44:02
Speaker 2: From a tail risk no, China is a much more
44:05
Speaker 2: potent No, I get it, China the longer term. I
44:08
Speaker 2: get that China is the hard work.
44:10
Speaker 1: China is the the constant work, but a near term
44:15
Speaker 1: you know, hey, you've got this is the emergency you've
44:18
Speaker 1: got to worry about. It's that, that's how you put it.
44:21
Speaker 2: And and I mean, look the fact that Trump, you know,
44:25
Speaker 2: has engaged with Putin, and and that he has bona
44:30
Speaker 2: fides with Putin because he's beaten the crap out of
44:32
Speaker 2: the Ukrainians in ways that are completely inappropriate in my view,
44:35
Speaker 2: but nonetheless.
44:36
Speaker 1: He's done it.
44:37
Speaker 2: Putin should should be willing to listen to Trump at
44:42
Speaker 2: least a little, right, And you have you have to think,
44:45
Speaker 2: I mean, if there was anything that more stability and
44:48
Speaker 2: alignment between the Americans and the Chinese could accomplish, it
44:53
Speaker 2: should be to try to like stabilize this horrible, horrible
44:58
Speaker 2: position that Putin is getting himself into.
45:01
Speaker 1: Well, this brings me to a story I put as
45:03
Speaker 1: the most important story you probably haven't read about this week,
45:06
Speaker 1: and it was the story the BBC and Financial Times
45:09
Speaker 1: investigation about the cure Starmer Arsonist. And it was basically
45:15
Speaker 1: just a Russia It was a Russian operation and looked
45:19
Speaker 1: by the Kremlin, paid by the Russian government. Yeah, just
45:22
Speaker 1: just an astonishing story, and frankly, I think good for
45:28
Speaker 1: the British intelligence for making sure this information got out
45:30
Speaker 1: into the public. You know, needed to be out there.
45:35
Speaker 2: Did you the warning shots against the yacht in the
45:40
Speaker 2: British channel that came from a Russian ship?
45:43
Speaker 1: So what what should the Why isn't this the most
45:46
Speaker 1: important issue at the G seven at the moment? There's
45:50
Speaker 1: a lot going on in G seven. Oh, I get that,
45:53
Speaker 1: but this is not a small thing.
45:54
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, impact on the European economies of the
45:58
Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz has been much greater than the US,
46:01
Speaker 2: so obviously they're paying more attention to that. The United
46:05
Speaker 2: States has just put export controls on the most advanced
46:08
Speaker 2: AI model and that feels like a kill switch for
46:11
Speaker 2: the Europeans meetings, Americans, any tech that you rely on,
46:14
Speaker 2: they could shut down and you have no say over it.
46:17
Speaker 2: So at best this would be number three for the Europeans.
46:21
Speaker 1: This, yeah, that's amazing. Actually, yeah, that Russia targeting one
46:27
Speaker 1: of the you know, one of the member, the prime minister,
46:31
Speaker 1: one of the members of the G seven, and it's
46:33
Speaker 1: it's not the number one. Seems like a pretty big
46:35
Speaker 1: I get it. You're not wrong. I mean, you just
46:38
Speaker 1: you've laid it out, but it that entire story was
46:42
Speaker 1: so shocking, and our lack of reaction has been surprising
46:45
Speaker 1: to me.
46:46
Speaker 2: I don't actually tell you this at the time because
46:49
Speaker 2: it wasn't appropriate to but now that that administration has gone,
46:53
Speaker 2: I should share with you. So early months into the war,
46:57
Speaker 2: between when Russia invaded Ukraine after they failed to take
47:01
Speaker 2: Kiev and when they were on their heels and losing
47:04
Speaker 2: territory quickly in southeast Ukraine, I had a meeting with
47:09
Speaker 2: Jake Sullivan, you know in the White House National Security
47:13
Speaker 2: Advice at the time.
47:15
Speaker 1: We would see each other all the time.
47:17
Speaker 2: And he sat down with me and I could tell
47:21
Speaker 2: this was like I mean, it was always a serious conversation,
47:23
Speaker 2: but this was a He was quite somber, and he said, look,
47:29
Speaker 2: we got information this morning. We believe that there's a
47:35
Speaker 2: between a twenty and a forty percent likelihood that the
47:37
Speaker 2: Russians are going to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
47:41
Speaker 1: And I could have fallen off my chair right.
47:45
Speaker 2: And the US was immediately I mean direct messages to
47:49
Speaker 2: the Russians from Bill Burns, CIA director direct highest level
47:55
Speaker 2: conversations with the Chinese with the Indians, trying to make
47:58
Speaker 2: the Russians aware of what the consequences would be directly
48:02
Speaker 2: from US military if they were to do that. You
48:06
Speaker 2: know that Russian that Russian troops in Ukraine would be
48:10
Speaker 2: hit directly by the United States if that were to happen.
48:13
Speaker 1: For example. But I mean, this was a.
48:17
Speaker 2: That's the kind of thing that like you would have
48:18
Speaker 2: I would have thought about from the Cold War, from
48:21
Speaker 2: the Cuban missile crisis. This was suddenly and this was
48:24
Speaker 2: this was Russia was in a far better position back
48:28
Speaker 2: then than they are now in my view, I mean economically, politically,
48:35
Speaker 2: geo strategically, So I mean this is and you know,
48:39
Speaker 2: we weren't making this ship up. This is this is
48:42
Speaker 2: I have no operational clearance, so they're not going to
48:45
Speaker 2: tell me anything in terms of what exactly they found.
48:49
Speaker 2: But but there's no question that that was the issue
48:53
Speaker 2: that the President of the United States was dealing with
48:55
Speaker 2: right at that moment. And I I do worry if
49:00
Speaker 2: that were to happen today that we have the.
49:06
Speaker 3: Fully a capable leadership in the United States to respond
49:12
Speaker 3: appropriately and.
49:13
Speaker 1: To do to rarely to do exactly what you said
49:16
Speaker 1: they did then get Mody on the phone. Guys, We've
49:19
Speaker 1: got to this is a we got to triangulate.
49:21
Speaker 2: This full full court press, you know, on the most
49:24
Speaker 2: important issues with a level of seriousness and policy understanding
49:29
Speaker 2: that can really engage by the way. I think Marco
49:31
Speaker 2: Rubio could definitely do that, and I think Marco in
49:35
Speaker 2: many ways is more capable in that role than blinkoln was.
49:38
Speaker 2: But it was Jake that was actually running, you know,
49:41
Speaker 2: sort of those those top strategic conversations. I would argue
49:45
Speaker 2: Tony was had more of a bureaucratic role at that
49:48
Speaker 2: point acted because you know, so it was and and
49:53
Speaker 2: Marco's doing everything. Now, if Marco were actually running it
49:57
Speaker 2: and Trump wasn't, maybe I feel more comfortable. But what
50:00
Speaker 2: we've seen on Iran is that that's not the case, right, Yeah.
50:04
Speaker 1: What do you make of the incredibly disappearing Secretary of
50:07
Speaker 1: State in the current Iran situation?
50:09
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, it's it's good that he's not the
50:11
Speaker 2: one that is seen as the statesman doing the Iran deal.
50:14
Speaker 2: Instead it's it's Vans, which again, of course is completely can't.
50:19
Speaker 1: Tell if that's a reward or a punishment, but it's
50:21
Speaker 1: obviously a punishment and for vance and and you know,
50:26
Speaker 1: again in the same way that there were some on
50:28
Speaker 1: the right that were trying to blame BB for the
50:31
Speaker 1: war as opposed to Trump, whose decision it was, and
50:35
Speaker 1: he took it.
50:35
Speaker 2: And he's more than capable of taking decisions and not
50:38
Speaker 2: taking decisions when he feels like it, and that includes
50:41
Speaker 2: with Israel. There's no magic to the Israeli influence over Trump.
50:45
Speaker 2: Although I am you know, knowing Trump. Trump loves to
50:48
Speaker 2: scapegoat people. It is interesting to me he hasn't done
50:51
Speaker 2: that yet with BB.
50:52
Speaker 1: That's right, that's but he's done a bit of it.
50:54
Speaker 2: He's done a bit of it on Elebanon stuff, frankly
50:57
Speaker 2: in the last few days. But ultimately, his his war
51:03
Speaker 2: and ultimately.
51:04
Speaker 1: His MoU He can't admit somebody else made him do something,
51:08
Speaker 1: because that's worse for him, isn't it.
51:10
Speaker 2: It's right I think for him to say no, no, no,
51:12
Speaker 2: I it wasn't really me.
51:14
Speaker 1: He made me do it. You're kidding me.
51:16
Speaker 3: It makes him look weak. Absolutely, he's not going to
51:18
Speaker 3: do that.
51:18
Speaker 1: No, does this guarantee that we do action on Cuba
51:22
Speaker 1: before the end of this year. It strikes me that
51:25
Speaker 1: Trump is going to want to memory hole Iran as
51:27
Speaker 1: fast as he can. Yeah, I agree, And one of
51:30
Speaker 1: the best ways to do it is, hey, let's show
51:32
Speaker 1: the shiny metal object in the Western hemisphere, which.
51:35
Speaker 2: Is first of all, which is why the sixty days
51:37
Speaker 2: doesn't really matter on the nuclear deal, because I think
51:40
Speaker 2: that that's going to get kicked and kicked and kicked.
51:42
Speaker 1: Just like sixty days. It'll be a consist It'll be
51:45
Speaker 1: like the government continuing resolutions, right, Yeah, they'll built fun
51:49
Speaker 1: government down the road.
51:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just like Gaza where you got your phase
51:53
Speaker 2: one deal and then where's phase two? And you know
51:55
Speaker 2: we're are the condos and when we started not happening
51:58
Speaker 2: and so but but.
52:00
Speaker 1: You know I put it down payment on one, so
52:03
Speaker 1: I should I'm not going to get that money back.
52:05
Speaker 3: I just think of it as you know, you're you're
52:10
Speaker 3: you're doing.
52:10
Speaker 2: Your party, Star Starship Troopers, You're doing your part. You
52:15
Speaker 2: got a right, Yeah, So I love that movie. So anyway, look,
52:20
Speaker 2: the Western Hemisphere. Yes, he wants to pivot to the
52:22
Speaker 2: Western Hemisphere. If he hadn't done it on and just
52:26
Speaker 2: like had actually done a victory lap properly on Venezuela,
52:29
Speaker 2: there'd be much more to talk about in the Western
52:31
Speaker 2: hemisphere today. And by the way, Trump is winning in
52:34
Speaker 2: the Western hemisphere is and is and he's got new allies,
52:38
Speaker 2: that's right, are winning. I mean Colombia, right, definitely that
52:42
Speaker 2: that that president is going to be very shortly. It's
52:45
Speaker 2: going to be the guy that that Trump had actually endorsed.
52:49
Speaker 2: He couldn't stand Petro, he thought it was a communist before.
52:51
Speaker 1: He's doing better there than in Georgia.
52:53
Speaker 2: Governor Argentina, right, I mean, Melay is like not only
52:57
Speaker 2: legitimately he's popular and and he supports Trump, but he's
53:02
Speaker 2: actually doing a pretty great job comparatively, uh, comparatively with
53:06
Speaker 2: the economy. You've got El Salvador, You've got Honduras. You know,
53:11
Speaker 2: You've got Panama, which is kicking the Chinese out and
53:14
Speaker 2: is working more closely with the United States. I mean,
53:18
Speaker 2: Brazil probably doesn't go Trump's way, and that's a big deal.
53:22
Speaker 2: But but still Lula doing everything he can to engage
53:26
Speaker 2: with Trump.
53:27
Speaker 1: At this point, I was just gonna say it, Lula
53:29
Speaker 1: doesn't Lula is trying not is basically trying to defang
53:32
Speaker 1: Trump a bit, isn't it. Yeah, that's right.
53:34
Speaker 2: As as the Mexicans with a lot more at stake,
53:37
Speaker 2: and so everywhere you look, the Western Hemisphere is basically
53:42
Speaker 2: a good story for Trump. And if you read his
53:44
Speaker 2: National Security strategy, you know, at the beginning of the year,
53:47
Speaker 2: and I'm not suggesting that Trump read it, but but
53:49
Speaker 2: if but if you or I did, you know.
53:51
Speaker 1: It means Marco Rubio wrote it. Marco Rubia. This has
53:54
Speaker 1: been his vision. It's his name. Frankly, you know this,
53:59
Speaker 1: you know was I I've always believed that, But for
54:01
Speaker 1: nine to eleven this might have been the George W.
54:03
Speaker 1: Bush vision. He was really wanting to engage the Western hemisphere.
54:08
Speaker 2: And the Cuba becomes a deal that that Obama couldn't do,
54:14
Speaker 2: and after sixty years of effort that suddenly Cuba's open
54:18
Speaker 2: for business, open for investment, and and the MAGA guys
54:23
Speaker 2: are going down there. Okay, it's still going to be
54:27
Speaker 2: the castros. So it's not you know, it's it's not.
54:31
Speaker 1: It'll be very grifty too, but yeah.
54:34
Speaker 2: But it'll still be what Obama wanted to do and
54:37
Speaker 2: ultimately failed a doing, but didn't have any stick.
54:40
Speaker 1: It was all carrot and here.
54:41
Speaker 2: So the so the Cubans ultimately punted and punted and punted,
54:45
Speaker 2: and decided it was too risky. Now you know you're
54:48
Speaker 2: you're killing their economy. There's a lot more urgency for
54:52
Speaker 2: the Cubans to play ball with the United States, and
54:55
Speaker 2: I think it's more likely to happen.
54:59
Speaker 1: How's the US doing, that's the World Cup host? Are
55:01
Speaker 1: we making friends or are we making enemies? I don't know.
55:04
Speaker 2: I went to uh. I went to France. Senegal was
55:06
Speaker 2: the first World Cup game I've ever been to in
55:08
Speaker 2: my life. And uh first of all, was extremely well organized,
55:14
Speaker 2: every piece of it.
55:15
Speaker 1: It's way too expensive. Was that? Where was that? Was
55:17
Speaker 1: that in Dallas? No? No New Jersey.
55:20
Speaker 3: That was a New Jersey just across the river from me.
55:22
Speaker 2: I had no problem getting over there. People were super happy.
55:26
Speaker 2: The French were there in very large numbers. Senegal no,
55:29
Speaker 2: but loud and look. It's a great thing because the
55:34
Speaker 2: the first of all, the Chinese don't matter. The Americans
55:38
Speaker 2: are only okay, though they played real well against Paraguay
55:41
Speaker 2: the other day. This is like the whole the Middle
55:44
Speaker 2: Powers all come out and they all celebrate.
55:47
Speaker 1: This is their most this is their time to shine, baby,
55:49
Speaker 1: and they love it.
55:51
Speaker 2: And it is you know, it's not really political, and
55:54
Speaker 2: there are a couple side shows. You know, maybe it's
55:56
Speaker 2: clausible the Iranians could end up playing the United States
55:59
Speaker 2: and what would that be like, right, But ultimately this
56:03
Speaker 2: is a celebration of sport and athletics and some of
56:06
Speaker 2: the most extraordinary athletes from all over the world. And
56:09
Speaker 2: in the same way that all of New York came
56:10
Speaker 2: together to support my knicks, which was wonderful. You know,
56:15
Speaker 2: this is something that you know, brings people together, which
56:18
Speaker 2: is more important than the most of the stuff that
56:20
Speaker 2: you and I talk about.
56:21
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I've I've you know, we could use
56:24
Speaker 1: a little better pr around the world, and it sounds
56:27
Speaker 1: like everyday World Cup influencers are doing better pr for
56:31
Speaker 1: us than anything formal we could have done in a while.
56:34
Speaker 2: They know they're coming to the US and they're like
56:36
Speaker 2: having a great time, and most of them, I mean, yeah,
56:39
Speaker 2: there were some that didn't get in, and there was
56:41
Speaker 2: you know, some some customs issues, but most of the
56:44
Speaker 2: experience that most of the people are having having going
56:47
Speaker 2: to most of the games has been overwhelmingly positive.
56:50
Speaker 1: And I am delighted because Trump.
56:51
Speaker 2: As you know, Trump, I worried about this Trump does
56:55
Speaker 2: the American flag. Trump does not own the fourth of July.
56:58
Speaker 2: He does not own the two fifty an. I don't
57:00
Speaker 2: like when Americans, you know, sort of like, well, we're
57:03
Speaker 2: not going to celebrate because we don't like Trump.
57:05
Speaker 1: What's wrong with you?
57:05
Speaker 2: You know, he's gone in two years, He's gone, and
57:10
Speaker 2: we're still here. So you know, we got it's on
57:13
Speaker 2: us and and and and I'm glad that the that.
57:15
Speaker 1: We're representing with the cup here, Well he'll be gone
57:18
Speaker 1: in two years, but the algae and the reflecting pool
57:20
Speaker 1: will be there. Yeah.
57:21
Speaker 3: Sure, but we don't.
57:22
Speaker 2: You know, I kind of when I think reflecting pool,
57:24
Speaker 2: I think algae.
57:25
Speaker 1: I mean, that's kind of one of the things. I think.
57:28
Speaker 1: It's sort of bizarre that you think you're gonna it's
57:30
Speaker 1: not meant to be a swimming pool. It is not
57:34
Speaker 1: meant it is actually anyway it's meant to.
57:39
Speaker 2: Chinese should bring some carp you know, Jesion paying. I mean,
57:44
Speaker 2: it's always panted diplomacy. We need some carp diplomacy for
57:47
Speaker 2: the reflecting pool, right.
57:49
Speaker 1: And that great actor to resolve all of this carp diplomacy. Imer.
57:53
Speaker 1: Did you get to any Nicks games? I did I did.
57:56
Speaker 2: I was out of town for the finals matches, so
58:02
Speaker 2: I couldn't go. If there had been a Game six,
58:04
Speaker 2: I was all over it. But I went to all
58:07
Speaker 2: the other.
58:08
Speaker 1: This is a rare time for you New Yorkers where
58:10
Speaker 1: one of the rest of the country was actually rooting
58:12
Speaker 1: for New York. And that's normally not the case. Because
58:15
Speaker 1: the team is amazing and they play like a team.
58:18
Speaker 1: They're likesable. It's that's the thing. Rarely has a New
58:22
Speaker 1: York team been this likable. Yeah, Derek Jeter is probably
58:25
Speaker 1: you know. I mean, I will admit Derek Jeter was likable,
58:28
Speaker 1: but not what Karon Judge is likable a great but
58:31
Speaker 1: he doesn't want to he didn't want anything yet. No,
58:33
Speaker 1: but I mean he's fun to watch, right, This was
58:35
Speaker 1: a fun little thing. Bill Simmons said this, So if
58:37
Speaker 1: you're if you're in you're running the fanciest restaurant. Aaron Judge,
58:40
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson, and Derek Jeter walk in and one of them,
58:43
Speaker 1: only one of them can get the private room. Yeah Bronson, Yeah,
58:47
Speaker 1: it's not even close. He's the King of New York.
58:51
Speaker 2: Brunson gave up one hundred million plus, so that you
58:55
Speaker 2: had more salary cap to bring the team together. Yeah,
58:58
Speaker 2: that's I mean, at the time when Americans are like
59:01
Speaker 2: feeling bad about billionaires and Elon's got his trillion and
59:05
Speaker 2: everything else, suddenly you've got this guy that wins it all.
59:09
Speaker 2: You know, he's got the chip and and he's like, mister,
59:13
Speaker 2: I'm about the team and he's got his you know
59:15
Speaker 2: what is his college Sweetheartady married?
59:17
Speaker 1: And the whole thing, the whole thing is it is
59:21
Speaker 1: it is it is, it is, it is. It is
59:24
Speaker 1: a Hollywood scrut Mister Bremmer. I always learned something from you.
59:27
Speaker 1: That's why I try to drag down here as much
59:29
Speaker 1: as I can. Thank you really great to see you again.
59:31
Speaker 1: Absolutely bro