Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 10 : 2023 Bowman Chrome, Keeper Trade Chips

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Ep. 10 : 2023 Bowman Chrome, Keeper Trade Chips · Cards & Categories

• 0:15
  Hello, and welcome everybody to episode ten of Cards and Categories. We have
• 0:20
  officially reached double digits. I am Mike Coolard here from Rasball, joined as
• 0:26
  always by Jeremy Brewer, also from Rasball. Brew How are you doing this
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  evening. I'm doing fantastic. I'm excited that we made it through double digits
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  of episodes. It was it was questionable out the gate if we would get
• 0:38
  here, and maybe the jury is still out, but we are here nonetheless,
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  so I'm doing very well this evening. Yeah, I guess we shouldn't
• 0:46
  gloat too much before I actually get this thing posted in everything, but I'm
• 0:49
  gonna take credit and say that I think I can get this thing up,
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  and hopefully we don't like this is would be the worst time to have like
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  our first set of technical difficulties where we lose of recording or something like that.
• 1:02
  But just go straight to episode eleven. Yeah, turn it all the
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  way up to eleven. Yes, that's that's the quality that we have.
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  We probably should just skip straight to eleven. That makes this one go away,
• 1:15
  because it can think this one can go to eleven. So yeah,
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  I was looking over the baseball landscape for us to talk about this week,
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  and honestly, things have kind of like settled into where all the races are
• 1:29
  tightening up, but like no one's really too hot. The Mariners have been
• 1:33
  a little cold. But I was looking at everybody's kind of up and down
• 1:37
  last ten records over the past well ten days, obviously ten games or so,
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  and most of them were hovering right around five hundreds. So it does
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  feel like it's been a little bit like that, where it's been a tug
• 1:49
  of war as the AL Wildcard between the Mariners, the Rangers, the Blue
• 1:55
  Jays have been bouncing back and forth. The NL wild Card has been bouncing
• 1:59
  back and fourth between the Cubs, the Diamondbacks, the Marlins, the Giants
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  a little bit, the Reds a little bit, and so all these teams
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  are just kind of been neck and neck. So I figured we'd focus on
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  maybe what I think has been a fascinating thing just follow here in the second
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  half is and Waynwright's pursuit of the two hundredth win. It's the only thing
• 2:23
  really keeping the Cardinals in their playing shape and keeping people coming out to ballparks
• 2:29
  every fifth day. It's also been fascinating because it's been such an uphill battle
• 2:34
  as we watched one of the greatest pictures of this generation. Just continue to
• 2:39
  get absolutely pummeled. He's up to a seven ninety five year right on this
• 2:45
  season, allowing twenty homers in ninety four innings, along with a K nine
• 2:52
  and walk nine B B nine that are approaching the same convergence. His walk
• 2:58
  rate is three seven, his K nine is four nine, so rounded up
• 3:04
  to five, it's pretty poor. Homers per nine is almost just as high
• 3:07
  as one point nine. It is maybe like the worst pitching season I've ever
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  seen, But he keeps rolling out there getting getting the ball every fifth day,
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  and yesterday he brielled in his one hundred and ninety ninth wins. So
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  I thought we would take a moment to celebrate ad Wainwright and theorize on whether
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  or not he's actually gotten up in the tank in these last two starts for
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  his two hundred win. Yeah, I mean the correction I have to make
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  on you there, and I think this is the only time you've every been
• 3:35
  able to say this at this point in September is his ERRA is not up
• 3:38
  to seven ninety five. It is down to seven ninety five after last after
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  his last outing where he give up two runs and five innings and that brought
• 3:46
  him down to seven ninety five, he finally got under eight for the first
• 3:51
  time. And I don't know whim so, but yeah, I was very
• 3:54
  excited to see him get to one ninety nine. You know, they're only
• 3:59
  running out there trying to get him to two hundred. You know, the
• 4:01
  season's gone at this point. They're they're trying to get what he can and
• 4:06
  send them out. And you know, the fun thing is Wayne, right,
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  he just has such a good attitude. You know, he knows that
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  he's cooked at this point, but he's still going out there and trying to
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  shove every fifth day. I wish I could line up my schedule actually go
• 4:21
  see him pitch. I'm gonna be down watching the Cardinals in like two days
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  myself, And of course I keep mentioning missing his turn in the rotation.
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  Maybe though he'll go on three days rest on get lucky. I think he's
• 4:31
  only probably give up ten or twelve if that's the case. But uh,
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  yeah, you're right, probably got two more starts here for the rest of
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  the season, and you know, I think he's gonna do it. I
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  think on the board I'm putting on the board. I think it's I hate
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  to say that, and you know, I'm a Cardinals fan, so but
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  I know, and I know some car the Cardinals sometimes get some tough rap
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  because they just always things just always seem to like work out out for them
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  and just annoying ways. I'm sure for the rest of the league, and
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  as a Cardinals fan, I can totally own that. It definitely there,
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  Like, you know, the guy comes up, he's like, oh,
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  he's a nobody, and you know he he takes them to the World Series,
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  like it's you know, Bohart all over again, right, But they
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  just tend to find those guys and things work out. You know, Poohles
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  comes back storybook. You know last season hit seven hundred home runs like that
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  wasn't supposed to happen, but sure of course it did. So I'm just
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  I'm layering into the Cardinals magic and he's he's gonna get it. And you
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  know, I'm not gonna go as bold to say he's gonna like throw at
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  nine in he shut out, but like I wouldn't be surprised, right,
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  It's I'm not sure I didn't look at the schedule to see who. He
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  looked it up, so I got it. So who does he line up
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  against for the rest of the season here? The next one's at San Diego,
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  so I think I mean I would. I was encounting on him winning
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  this one at Baltimore last night. We're recording this on the Wednesday, the
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  thirteenth, so that was a really long shot. And honestly, the Cardinals
• 6:04
  also won tonight Withdrew Ram somehow maintaining a clean line against the Orioles and shutting
• 6:14
  them out. So it was a kind of weird flukey back to back as
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  Waynwright and Ram have been two of the worst pictures I think I've ever seen
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  this year, as they just can't find the strike zone and when they do,
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  they get lit up. So his first one's at San Diego. Second
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  one is home against the Reds. That is the same weekend that he's also
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  presenting a country music concert, and on October first, there's a guitar and
• 6:40
  Adam Waynwright guitar giveaway at the Cardinals game, so for the last game of
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  the season, so that's a good cross promotion as he looks to launch his
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  country music career. I guess but this guy gets into that two hundred to
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  win. I guess first, well, he's got a book. In the
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  seasons. He opened the season singing the national anthem, if I recall,
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  so he has to sing the Swan song on the way out. So yeah,
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  it's you know, it'll be interesting to see. Just look at the
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  schedule. I could squint and see him get three starts in there, you
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  know, if you squint at it, I think it's possible they could.
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  But they could, they could, so I would not be shocked if they
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  if they try to, you know, run him, run him out there
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  a few a little bit earlier, trying to get Milwaukee in the schedule there
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  and try to finish him out that that very last game of the season.
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  Like, if he doesn't get two hundred, give him a chance to get
• 7:31
  five innings and just see what happens on Adam Wayne right, guitar da right.
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  It can't be. It can't be any better than that. So I'm
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  I'm excited, you know it is. You know, I will say I
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  was always hopeful that he somehow pulls enough out to make a really good Hall
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  of Fame argument. I don't I don't think he's there I don't think he's
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  managed that. It would have just been too much of a storybook ending for
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  you know, this last you know decade or two of the Cardinals with Molina
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  who holes and Wayne right somehow I'll go into the Hall of Fame within a
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  few years of each other. Just would have been in the storybook ending.
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  But you know, he give him credit two hundred wins uh for a career
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  is nothing, uh to be ashamed of. It is an impressive feats one
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  team the entire career. And you know, he had some very very impressive
• 8:20
  seasons, and he continued to reinvent himself the whole way through. And I
• 8:24
  would have loved to see if he could have stayed healthy his entire career,
• 8:30
  because he did have a few you know, lost seasons in there that that
• 8:35
  you know, kind of set him back for a year or two. So,
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  like I said, I it would have been nice to see in his
• 8:41
  you know, early to mid thirty he probably had three or four rough years
• 8:46
  everybody thought he was cooked before he really turned it around at age you know,
• 8:50
  thirty eight in real Loft, three three amazing years on one year one
• 8:54
  year deals with the Cardinals. So I don't know, I'm excited. What's
• 8:58
  your what's your over hundred? Do you think he's gonna get that last win?
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  I think it will. I think he'll sneak one of these out.
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  I don't think he's gonna it's gonna be a struggle though that I don't know
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  what type of type of Padres lineup he's going to be facing, So that's
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  gonna be a little bit of a wild card seeing how many people that the
• 9:20
  Padres actually roll out there now that they're in actual like they're out of it
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  and they're not in any sort of playoff odds at all. They've totally gone
• 9:30
  down to zero on fan graphs, and that's SINCI lineup like they're gonna be
• 9:33
  trying pretty hard. So that might be a tough one at home. Hopefully
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  he can find a little bit of extra adrenaline. I'm sure it'll be a
• 9:39
  sold out night when he throws that game against Cincinnati. But to your point
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  about the last seasons, I do agree. You can see like the seasons
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  in his page when he lost the year to Tommy John and he lost the
• 9:52
  year to the achilles injury, so that really set him back, as well
• 9:56
  as like the twenty twenty season obviously took a chunk out of like what oddly
• 10:01
  would have been a good stretch. You know, if you project out those
• 10:03
  other twenty games that he or twenty starts that he could have gotten that year
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  without the COVID season, he honestly could have gotten into the fifteen wind range
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  again. And honestly, when you put those pieces together, it would have
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  been a Hall of Fame career. And I do think that if he had
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  gone out with a Swan song here, that wasn't this as I do like
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  the motioning of just like everything in terms of I just like I can't believe
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  it. I go through his game log sometimes. This stretch from June twenty
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  fourth to September seventh is maybe one of the worst stretches of eleven starts that
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  I think might ever exist in pitching like baseball history. I'm not any good
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  with stadhead, So if somebody out there is and knows how to do this,
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  it would be cool to look it up. But his stretch of eleven
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  games eleven starts from June twenty fourth to September seventh, he threw forty five
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  and a thirds innings. He had ten losses out of the eleven starts in
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  forty five and thirds innings, he allowed fifty four runs. That's good for
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  a ten seventy two yr ra. He get a seven seventy six fifth.
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  He walked twenty three, only struck out twenty five, allowed fourteen homers.
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  He left fourteen homers to twenty five strikeouts. That's not even a two to
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  one k to home run ratio. His average game score two on Fangraphs,
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  which you give forty just for starting, like for throwing a pitch, you
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  get a forty. He's got an average game score two of twenty six.
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  That means he was severely below average every start during that stretch. There was
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  a couple of okay starts in there, with like a San Diego start where
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  he only allowed one run, but it is one of the most brutal stretches
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  of like forty five innings I think you could put together. As the Cardinals
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  were out of it and he was pushing so hard for that two ninth win,
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  it was just real, real sad to watch. Yeah, I looked
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  at the same stretch myself, and it's it's almost like if you look at
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  as the inverse of like a hitter, right coming in and you look at
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  the batted ball stats against him, it's it's just incredible. He had like
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  a forty five percent hit hard hit rate against him, you know, exit
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  value, but velocity averaging around ninety with a max at one fifteen thirteen percent
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  barrel rate. I'm like, man, I feel like I'm reading like the
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  Ronald Lacuna's fangraphs page here. It's essentially what he gave up. He gave
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  up twenty one point five homer at a fly ball ratio one out of every
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  five. One every five fly balls during that stretch was a homer. It's
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  it's like the position player pitching, is it. I mean, yeah,
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  maybe we're worse by far. Yeah, it's it's it's sad to see it.
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  You know, he still is such a great fixture for for that team,
• 13:03
  for that city. You know that. I really don't think this hurts
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  his legacy with them. But to your point, I do think that if
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  he had ended up staying healthy for another season or two or even you know
• 13:16
  that twenty twenty season, I think you're you're right there. If he had
• 13:20
  just managed to get another like ten wins, five ten wins, I think
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  he calls it a career. Last year he goes out on a high note.
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  He gets two hundred, goes out with Yadi and Albert, and is
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  he a Hall of Famers? I don't. I still don't know that he
• 13:35
  is. But the case could be argued, right, I think the case
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  could have been argued at that point. He's got the Burton bly Levin case
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  that you look back like fifteen years from now, go ah, sure,
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  why not? So I'm I'm looking forward to it. It's going to be
• 13:54
  musty TV might be cringeworthy at times, but I'm looking forward to seeing number
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  two hundred for Adam wayterize. Yeah, and we'll see. I think there
• 14:03
  is a possibility he still maybe goes in, just because as voting happens over
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  the next decade or so, they might realize that they're not putting any pictures
• 14:13
  in, and so as they go back to committees, they revisit it and
• 14:18
  realize, hey, we've got to put some pictures in, And at that
• 14:22
  point he might get through, especially if Tony Luis is sitting on some sort
• 14:26
  of committee again the way that he got Harold Bayne's in that maybe he can
• 14:30
  do one for Wayno here too. Oh. I could just I can imagine
• 14:33
  the controversy that would cause, but it feels like a very realistic scenario.
• 14:39
  Unfortunately, Yeah, you can never you can never put it past LUSA popping
• 14:43
  up in the weirdest places in baseball history. But from one picture to another,
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  also writing the Struggle Bus, but made of his own regard. Really
• 14:54
  with his own comments, I wanted to add our own comments to the discourse
• 14:58
  around George Kirby and his comments over the weekend that he thought he should have
• 15:05
  been pulled from a game after ninety starts and his outing against the Rays,
• 15:09
  and he said that directly to the media, which was I think the most
• 15:15
  ridiculous thing that I don't know if I have too many qualms with what his
• 15:20
  overall kind of statement was the fact that he was kind of thinking through it
• 15:24
  is certainly concerning that, like you don't want a guy that like he's reaching
• 15:31
  ninety pitches like that, And that's really what Kirby was perturbed by was he
• 15:35
  got to the ninety pitch park ninety pitch mark thought that he would be removed.
• 15:41
  And then I don't know if he is saying that he lost focus because
• 15:45
  of that, you know that he thought he was going to be pulled and
• 15:48
  thought that he was going to come out of the game, or it was
• 15:50
  just kind of I can see from his standpoint where he was saying analytically,
• 15:54
  yes, it makes sense for me to come out of this game if I'm
• 15:58
  putting on my assist didn't GM hat or whatever that's going against the third time
• 16:03
  the order penalty. You look at the history of like how many pitches George
• 16:07
  Kirby's thrown over the entire season. Going into that game against the Race,
• 16:11
  he had only thrown one hundred pitches one, two, three, four times
• 16:17
  all year, and that's the end twenty seventh starts, so that actually includes
• 16:23
  the no, it doesn't that the fifth time was the Race starts, So
• 16:27
  twenty six starts, four times going over one hundred pitches. So that is
• 16:32
  kind of who he is. But I will also link into the show notes
• 16:37
  what his actual comments are. If he weren't familiar with what George Kirby said,
• 16:41
  I'll summarize that. Essentially, he said he should come out early from
• 16:45
  his start against the Rays at ninety pitches, and when he went back back
• 16:49
  out there for the seventh inning, he gave up a couple Homers, lost
• 16:52
  the lost the lead, and struggled before getting pulled. So through I wanted
• 17:00
  to see you as an ex player, like what your thoughts were on this
• 17:03
  and kind of see what your take on what George Kirby was seeing. Yeah,
• 17:07
  so I intentionally, you know, and I knew, I knew we
• 17:11
  were going to hit those topics intentionally, didn't. I try to not read
• 17:14
  much about this because I have a very specific opinion about this, and it's
• 17:18
  probably not going to be the standard opinion. But to your point, being
• 17:21
  uh an ex player and you've known me for a long time, but in
• 17:26
  my plane uh time, I was a little competitive, and so I I
• 17:32
  read this as uh an actually ultra competitive comment, which is kind of not
• 17:37
  what most people read it, as they look at as, oh, he's
• 17:38
  not he's not going for it, not that I read I read this much.
• 17:42
  And I mean, and I watched you know, what he said and
• 17:45
  the way he said it, as you know, I'm I'm so into this,
• 17:49
  I'm so good. It couldn't possibly be my fault that this thing went
• 17:55
  wrong, and that that that's kind of the perspective I looked at it is,
• 17:59
  is that he went out there, he's shoving. He's doing everything possibly
• 18:02
  he can, and when something didn't go right, he is so supremely confident
• 18:06
  in what he's doing that man, something else must be going wrong. Now,
• 18:11
  there's definitely flaws with that perspective, like you have to be introspective to
• 18:15
  understand how you can get better and things like that. But like in that
• 18:18
  ultra competitive mode when you're coming right off of the game, you are so
• 18:23
  mad at yourself, You're so frustrated scenario. You gave it everything you got.
• 18:29
  Clearly it couldn't be you. You gave everything, So it's clearly somebody
• 18:33
  else like that. I think that's where he's coming from. You saw I
• 18:37
  gave everything. I only pitched the Regettings the game before. Clearly I wasn't
• 18:41
  didn't have everything to go out there. You should have pulled me because I
• 18:45
  gave everything, is the way I kind of interpreted that comment, because it's
• 18:49
  not you don't get to this level by being a pansy. You don't.
• 18:55
  You don't get there by just going ah, I'm just gonna toss it and
• 18:57
  see what happens. George kurb he shoves, He goes out there and gives
• 19:02
  it all. Every day that he's pitching, and you know, I you
• 19:07
  know, he kind of made an apology later about it, and how is
• 19:11
  you know, the emotion got uh, you know the best of him.
• 19:14
  And I think people are like, how could how the world do you make
• 19:15
  that comment with the emotion gets the best of you? And I think it's
• 19:18
  really again coming from that ultra competitive perspective, that you're so confident yourself it
• 19:22
  couldn't be your fault. And then yeah, you cool down A few hours
• 19:26
  later, you go, Okay, I still I was still on the mount,
• 19:29
  I was still the one throwing the ball, and so still you had
• 19:30
  some control over that. But in that in that moment, you're just so
• 19:34
  gosh darn't pissed because you know, in your best form, I can never
• 19:38
  make that mistake. So I don't know, maybe a different take, maybe
• 19:41
  maybe not the proper take. I don't know, but that's kind of how
• 19:45
  I interpreted. I didn't look at George Hervey being soft. I thought that
• 19:48
  was a lazy take for anybody making that take. I don't see that at
• 19:52
  all. But I don't know what you what about you? What are your
• 19:55
  thoughts? Am I crazy? No? I actually I think your comments are
• 20:00
  in the vein that what I was thinking too, especially like you can see
• 20:03
  just his attitude in the interview as well, that it's a guy who is
• 20:07
  sulking, he's frustrated. He had had his fourth straight just kind of blast
• 20:14
  start, you know, after just absolutely dominating all year. So like during
• 20:18
  these last four starts, he's had a six RRA over twenty one innings going
• 20:22
  into that start or like into that stretch. On August twelve, he threw
• 20:29
  nine shutout innings against Baltimore before that game went into extra innings and entering the
• 20:34
  stretch overall, he was at a three eleven year ray. Also, just
• 20:38
  like he tied his season high for walks and that right he's outing with two,
• 20:45
  which is absurd, but like that's how like much of a bulldog he
• 20:48
  is. That like he was so irate with himself over that outing in which
• 20:55
  he gave up two walks that I'm sure he was just seething. And I
• 21:00
  don't think I think his misstep was saying this obviously in front of the media,
• 21:03
  that like if he had vented this somewhere else to a teammate or had
• 21:10
  gone to service, they would have cooled him off and kind of taken that
• 21:12
  competitive spirit and edge that he has and found a better outlet for it.
• 21:18
  But the fact that he spewed this to the media and just gave them the
• 21:22
  fodder to be able to throw him under the bus like this was the biggest
• 21:26
  mistake he could have made. And so I think what also hurts him is
• 21:30
  that lots of people just don't watch the Mariners. They're on the West Coast,
• 21:36
  they play late, they just aren't a super popular, well known team
• 21:41
  outside of Julio. And even though you and I know George Kirby and people
• 21:45
  inside baseball George Kirby, lots of people outside like your Jared Weavers and even
• 21:53
  your Roger Clemens's that like maybe aren't seam heads like a day in the day
• 21:57
  out and just anybody calling into any old sports talk radio show. For the
• 22:03
  most part, they just probably aren't introduced George Herby and didn't know like what
• 22:07
  his repertoire and what his body of work looked like going into that start.
• 22:14
  So they just don't have a sense of kind of where this guy is on
• 22:18
  the talent spectrum, and so it's easy to be like, oh, he's
• 22:21
  soft, he can't go out there and throw ninety pitches, I would have
• 22:23
  gone through all this blah blah blah. And so those two factors combined,
• 22:29
  like throwing it in front of the media, and then just like it would
• 22:33
  have been different if, like, you know, this was somebody who was
• 22:36
  well known, maybe even like a young person like you know, Walker Bueler's
• 22:40
  injured, but like it not a vet, some up and coming person that
• 22:44
  was known like Spencer Strider or something. You know that like somebody like that
• 22:48
  might have had a little more leeway. But George Kirby just doesn't have that
• 22:51
  good will built up in the national media yet. Yeah, And I think
• 22:56
  it's to your point, like the folks that you know have limited like former
• 23:00
  players, like they're they're not the guys that were you know, Jared Weaver,
• 23:03
  for example, Jared Jared Weaver could pitch every inning because he was throwing
• 23:07
  seventy miles an hour. You know, he threw the epest pitch better than
• 23:12
  anybody. So I think it's kind of a you know, you're not the
• 23:18
  same person, you're not the same player. Give him credit. At the
• 23:22
  same time, you know, the Mariners are also they've been struggling, you
• 23:25
  know, they were so hot for you know, a few weeks and now
• 23:29
  they're kind of going on the downturn. They're frustrated. You know, the
• 23:32
  media is looking for to make a story. It's just so easy to catch
• 23:36
  on. Yeah, where it was he was he just straight up idiot for
• 23:38
  Sanith media. Yes he was. Do I blame him for it? No,
• 23:45
  it's it's you know, it's the like I said's competitive spirit. I
• 23:48
  guarantee that conversation with Scott Service was was nothing like. It was like,
• 23:53
  you're an idiot. He goes, Yeah, I know I shouldn't have said
• 23:56
  that. It's like, don't say stupid shit like that. Sorry, you
• 23:59
  probably don't beleeve me on this podcast. But oh no, I'm not going
• 24:02
  through that type of I don't even know how to. But I think you
• 24:07
  can get rid of one of those in one PEG movie. So all right,
• 24:11
  get away and we're not talking PG like the nineties or the eighties that
• 24:15
  that stuff was. That's that's our today. But anyway, like I think
• 24:18
  it's it's a non event in the Mariners Clubhouse at this point, there's nobody
• 24:23
  thinking about it. It's just the media still running with us and yeah,
• 24:27
  there's nothing going on, and see Attle George Kirby, He's gonna be just
• 24:30
  fine. He's gonna go shove next outing, and nobody's gonna think about this.
• 24:34
  Well, hopefully he might be tiring a little bit down the stretch with
• 24:38
  those kind of shaky last four outings. But I think my favorite part of
• 24:42
  this too is I will link to this in the show description. But the
• 24:48
  funny thing is Jared Weaver. Also, I have an article from May thirteen,
• 24:56
  twenty fourteen, The Beauty of the Internet. Jared Weaver, you asked
• 24:59
  to be taking out of a game on May twelve, twenty fourteen, after
• 25:03
  throwing one hundred and two pitches over six and a third. So it's funny
• 25:07
  how things kind of come back around that Jared Weaver was a little bit in
• 25:11
  the same boat that George Kirby was. That he says in this article that
• 25:15
  he expected to be removed earlier because his fastball wasn't where it was supposed to
• 25:21
  be in his command was wavering, and so he wanted out of the game.
• 25:23
  So, Jared Weaver of life comes at you fast, my man.
• 25:27
  Yeah, that is the curse of the Internet these days. You like you
• 25:30
  can't say anything at any point in time in the last like decade and not
• 25:34
  have a documented of that conversation. So yeah, you're absolutely right, it's
• 25:42
  the irony is great. Yeah, And so with that we will get into
• 25:48
  the rest of our show. We got a great show lined up for today.
• 25:51
  We'll get into further details on twenty twenty three Bowman Chrome. It was
• 25:55
  released just today on September thirteenth, so we have more details in terms of
• 26:00
  checklists and refractors and things that are being pulled. Then we're going to get
• 26:03
  into some discussion of dynasty trade trips. So we're going to go through a
• 26:08
  few categories of players that we like in terms of ones that we want to
• 26:14
  hold and maybe some that we want to move on from, and detail a
• 26:18
  few players that we specifically like within those categories. So stick around with us.
• 26:22
  We'll be back soon. All right, Welcome back, everybody. We
• 26:44
  are going to talk about the newest baseball card release that came out just today,
• 26:48
  twenty twenty three Bowman Chrome from Tops and So this is one of the
• 26:55
  i would say flagship ish releases of the year that you know you have obviously
• 27:00
  your Base Tops, your Topschrome, your Base Bowman, your Bowman Chrome.
• 27:04
  The one difference is. I think Bowman Chrome is a little bit less ripped
• 27:11
  and collected than Tops Chrome just because of availability. A lot of it is
• 27:15
  due because people can rip lots of blasters of Topschrome, Bowman Chrome doesn't really
• 27:21
  have that availability. It's more of a hobby only product, and I think
• 27:23
  that they're bringing out jumbo boxes again, but I haven't seen any pop up
• 27:27
  personally, so I know it's really mostly a hobby product this year, and
• 27:33
  because of that, it's a little bit harder to get your hands on.
• 27:36
  The prices are a little bit increased this year, just like everything else,
• 27:40
  so I think it'll just be a little bit less of a hot product than
• 27:44
  maybe it has been in previous years. But obviously I'm also saying that as
• 27:48
  somebody who isn't the biggest Bowman Chrome person that's ever existed. Along with this,
• 27:53
  Yer's Bowman design has not been my favorite, so I've kind of been
• 27:57
  not the biggest fan of it overall. But with that, I think we'll
• 28:03
  get into some of the specifics on players to collect, in who to look
• 28:06
  out for, some of the special cards that we got going on, and
• 28:10
  some of the parallels, as well as some of the gimmicks that they've got
• 28:14
  buried into this product, just like they have buried into all sorts of products.
• 28:18
  So twenty three BOWM and Chrome threw in the initial thoughts they hit you,
• 28:23
  Yeah, well, I think you did a good job kind of introducing
• 28:26
  the product. It is. It's always an interesting set because as far as
• 28:32
  like prospecting for Bowman cards, BOWM and Chrome with the focus of the first
• 28:37
  within BOWM and Chrome are usually the international free agent market, and generally those
• 28:45
  players are further and further from the major leagues than what you would see in
• 28:49
  Bowman or Bowman Draft. And so as you're doing that prospecting, you're talking
• 28:56
  about sixteen seventeen year old kids most like the all photoshop into their team's jerseys,
• 29:02
  and it's the horizon on collecting these guys is so significant that it is
• 29:11
  just an interesting product. Is determine what do you search for? What are
• 29:15
  you going for? Maybe that's why there's some gimmicky cards in it this time
• 29:18
  around, to kind of give it another flare. So I tend to stay
• 29:22
  away from BOWM and Chrome. Maybe grab something here and there, grab some
• 29:26
  singles, because I don't mind the look as much as probably you do.
• 29:30
  This year. It isn't my favorite either, but I don't mind it too
• 29:33
  terribly much. But it's always fun to look for you those top prospects,
• 29:37
  and there are a few good names in there this year, but generally probably
• 29:41
  not a product I'm going to have a whole lot of just like like I
• 29:45
  said, just based on the horizon of the players that are going to be
• 29:48
  in there. That said, you know, if your favorite player is there,
• 29:52
  or you want to get grab one of the guys before they become a
• 29:55
  household name, this is the time to do it, exactly. So let's
• 29:59
  start with some of those hot prospects and rookies that are buried in this set
• 30:03
  and some of the just overall particular details. So the base run of Bowman
• 30:07
  Chrome is a hundred, so you've just got one hundred regular players, stars,
• 30:14
  rookies, your everyday major leaguers that are in that set. The big
• 30:18
  rookies that you're looking for this year are the same ones that you're really looking
• 30:21
  in every product, and that's Corbyn Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, at Lee Richman,
• 30:26
  Jordan Walker, Masataka, Yoshida Volpi. Am I missing anyone? I
• 30:33
  think that's probably the big ones. Yeah, You're right, it's kind of
• 30:37
  this has been a loaded class and so it's like it's actually kind of a
• 30:41
  it makes it for an odd collecting. You're like, if you're looking for
• 30:45
  like ten guys, there's not one or two that really stand stand out.
• 30:48
  I mean, there's a few that are that are up there, but it's
• 30:52
  there. There's plenty of plenty of big names from a rookie perspective. Yeah,
• 30:56
  and lots of guys that will be included, mostly in Top Update series,
• 31:00
  which actually gets me excited because you can see some of the rookie cards
• 31:04
  that we haven't even gotten a chance to open in other sets that are included
• 31:08
  here in Bowman Chrome, and that includes guys like Bryce Miller, Matt McCain.
• 31:14
  We got Taj Bradley Tanner byby Yury Perez, Bobby Miller, Matt quite
• 31:22
  the run of pictures. Yeah, we have going here Patrick Bailey, So
• 31:30
  just lots of great Bailey surprise season there. But yeah, lots of great
• 31:34
  guys and minor guys too, like Rochio, Brian Rokio from the Guardians and
• 31:41
  Michael Gerstia from the Royals. So some really good actually rookies in this product
• 31:47
  that when I'm looking at the base set, I wouldn't. I'd have to
• 31:52
  calculate. Grayson Rodriguez is in Bowman Chrome this year, so lots of rookies
• 31:57
  that are seeing their debut here before they hit an update. Honestly, the
• 32:01
  bass set, it looks like it's going to be almost half rookies. So
• 32:07
  if you are looking for I think maybe a good one hundred cards set put
• 32:10
  together, the Bowman Chrome base would be a solid one just because of some
• 32:15
  of those rookies that we've rattled off. Along with those rookies, though,
• 32:19
  they're really emphasizing the variations on those rookies, and there are let's see ten
• 32:25
  cards of rookies where they have what they're calling color run variations. I'll link
• 32:30
  to a couple of pictures of this, but the best way to envision this
• 32:34
  is almost like a tied eye card with the actual colors of the team for
• 32:40
  each player. So this is right up my alley. I love color match
• 32:44
  cards. I love ted eye. Tight eye shirts makeup maybe like fifty percent
• 32:49
  of my daily T shirt wardrobe, and so I think these look great.
• 32:54
  And the pictures that I've seen on eBay, I bet in person they pop
• 32:58
  the problem is there's only twenty three of each of them. So here are
• 33:01
  the ten rookies that are included in this color run variation checklist. Again,
• 33:07
  only twenty three of each of these cards. You've got Corbyn Carroll, Johnnor
• 33:10
  Henderson, Anthony Volpie, Brett Batty, Adlee, Rutschman, Jordan Walker,
• 33:16
  Riley Green, Oswald Praza, Nolan Gorman, and Masa take Yoshida. So
• 33:22
  I think those will be really cool cards to collect. And if that's any
• 33:27
  of those guys that one of your players, that I would really try pretty
• 33:30
  hard to get one of these. And I think it's going to be extremely
• 33:32
  pricey, but it would be a cool card for your collection. Yeah,
• 33:37
  and you know, I'm a Nolan Gorman fan, so that's gonna be hard
• 33:39
  for me to resist as that comes out, because I have a feeling that's
• 33:43
  going to be a very very popular card among among fans. So I agree,
• 33:47
  I love the card. I think you're absolutely right with the Tidye reference.
• 33:51
  There definitely is the is the vibe that card gives off, and I
• 33:54
  actually like it. As for all the perils we've seen over the last years,
• 34:00
  you know, Sonics and tacos and all kinds of things. I do
• 34:04
  really think this one pops, and I think you're right, it's going to
• 34:07
  show off really really well for anybody that has one. And then they also
• 34:13
  have just regular short print image variations for rookies, which has been a pretty
• 34:17
  classic Bowman chrome thing. I'm trying to look right now to see with the
• 34:22
  crossover of who didn't get one from color variation, and looks like Volpie didn't.
• 34:29
  Volpi does not have a short print image variation. We've got Jordan Walker
• 34:37
  doesn't have a short print image variation, which is really strange. I'm a
• 34:39
  little bit surprised by that. Yeah, then otherwise everyone else that I rattled
• 34:45
  off from that list does have one. And then here are the other players
• 34:51
  that have short print image variations, and that's Ezekiel Tovar, Michael Harris a
• 34:55
  second, which I'm surprised he's not in the color run variation, which is
• 35:00
  kind of crazy. You're adding Tristan Cosas to the short print image variation,
• 35:06
  Miguel Vargas, Francisco Alvarez, Christopher Morel, and Kodai Senga. So I'll
• 35:12
  link to a few of these as well, but essentially what these are They're
• 35:15
  just variations on the normal bas card for these rookies with different photos. They'll
• 35:21
  have a refractor finish on them, the Rainbow basic refractor finish on them,
• 35:25
  but they will be different photos, non numbered, so they don't really pop
• 35:31
  out as the as much as the actually the color run variations are. They
• 35:37
  are numbered, just just on the back. I wasn't sure because usually Bowman
• 35:42
  prints the numbers on the front. These are on the back. The short
• 35:45
  print image variations will not be numbered, so I think this is actually one
• 35:52
  of the ones that they get wrong, because I will I'll link to the
• 35:58
  picture of the Addle short print a short print image variation, and I think
• 36:04
  it really emphasizes what I don't like about Bowman this year is that it's the
• 36:07
  weird frame, the like weird curved frame that goes around the base part of
• 36:14
  the card. It ruins the Adlee short print short print image variation because it's
• 36:20
  a picture of Adlee on deck and you're looking out into camp and yards and
• 36:25
  it's just totally wrecked by this weird frame that comes on these Bowman cards this
• 36:30
  year, and I think really degrades kind of like the majesty of that photo
• 36:37
  and seeing Adlee in front of the camping yards. For me, Yeah,
• 36:39
  I looked at that card as well, and I said, I don't mind
• 36:44
  the border for your standard first or something like that, but on that card,
• 36:50
  it is killing the vibe that it gives off. I mean, I
• 36:54
  say that, I look at a few of the other ones. I think
• 36:58
  it really has to do with the angle of that picture, because, like
• 37:00
  it is, the border of that card is meant to frame something. It
• 37:07
  is meant to frame a player, whether they're swinging, hitting, uh,
• 37:10
  they're they're throwing something whatnot. I actually looked at a few other ones that
• 37:17
  jump out and they don't look too bad. I'll tell you to look at
• 37:22
  the Dolan Gorman one there. It's him kind of jumping out of the dug
• 37:23
  out and running out. It frames him perfectly, and so it actually works.
• 37:28
  It like it had a good look to it, and so I think
• 37:30
  it's very much like you had to get the right photo to work with it,
• 37:35
  and it's kind of like the ad Leade or you know, you know,
• 37:37
  as I was looking at I'm sure there's others. It's like they took
• 37:38
  a stadium club chrome picture. They don't have to set this year there's like,
• 37:44
  where can I use this awesome picture? Let's throw it here, and
• 37:47
  then they ruined it with the with the border. So it's that's that's unfortunate,
• 37:52
  but it's definitely definitely true. I Yeah, I totally agree, And
• 37:57
  like the Michael hairs. The second one looks great. Maybe it's just the
• 38:00
  athlete one is that was the first one I saw is the one that doesn't
• 38:05
  look great. I like the Tristan Kassas one too, of him just kind
• 38:07
  of working out. He's done as a goofy dude with his pregame workouts,
• 38:13
  so it kind of captures that. But yeah, that is interesting that they
• 38:19
  would ruin the athlete like that. It's kind of a bummer. Yeah.
• 38:22
  I think the other thing to remember about this sais like, Okay, who
• 38:24
  are the big you talked about the big rookies. Who are the big prospects
• 38:29
  going after? So who's the biggest prospect that that you're you're going to be
• 38:32
  searching for? And bow and chrome? Yeah, and so this will work
• 38:37
  just like the Bowman sets. I guess I should explain for people not familiar
• 38:42
  with Bowmen is that you have one hundred Chrome Prospects cards as well. Which
• 38:47
  includes some of those teenagers that you were talking about, but also rehashes of
• 38:52
  famous minor leaguers like Jackson Holiday and Tamar Johnson and people of that ilk.
• 38:59
  But I think the biggest one that comes out of here from the first is
• 39:04
  definitely Ethan Salas, the catcher from the San Diego Padres. He's seventeen years
• 39:08
  old in double A phenomen this season is over. He's down with the knee
• 39:13
  injury right now, but honestly he's gonna make the majors in his teams,
• 39:17
  which will be I think the first catcher to do that since Pudge. So
• 39:22
  it's pretty rarefied air, and obviously the overall career projection for him is going
• 39:30
  to be the sky is the limit right now, and so that's going to
• 39:35
  be the hottest first that comes out of this set, between just the base
• 39:38
  and all the parallels that come with that, as well as the auto.
• 39:42
  The first Ethan Salast auto is in this product as well. I think the
• 39:45
  other big guy is going to be Sebastian Wallcut from the Texas Rangers. He
• 39:51
  was a pop up prospect this year and was dealt too many teams at the
• 39:57
  trade deadline as many people really wanted him on their rosters and in their minor
• 40:02
  leagues. He's flashing a lot of power. He can play short snap right
• 40:08
  now. But probably we'll settle into a third basement going forward. But Sebastian
• 40:13
  Walcott will be the other big name that I think comes out of this set,
• 40:15
  and then after that, I think it's just kind of a matter of
• 40:19
  seeing what happens as time goes on, because I'm sure some of these other
• 40:23
  teenagers that are in the set from J two signings and debuts and some of
• 40:29
  like the Dominican leagues and stuff over the over the summer will start to slowly
• 40:34
  creep up prospect boards and we'll start keeping more of an eye on their first
• 40:38
  cards and autos that are in this set. Yeah, I think we do
• 40:43
  have a few guys out there that signed for some pretty big international free agent
• 40:45
  deals, and I'm going to butcher these names just to own this here.
• 40:50
  I can think back with. Yeah, so we got Fellman Celestian over for
• 40:55
  the Mariners is short stuff. He signed for four point seven million during during
• 41:00
  the twenty twenty three international free agent signing period. Uh, we have Brandon
• 41:07
  Mayia for the Yankees. I'm probably gonna butchering it. He signed for almost
• 41:13
  four and a half million Joe Dried Vargas for the Dodgers. Uh and you
• 41:16
  know, you know, you know, for also kind of recognize a few
• 41:21
  of these guys signed big gun contracts and they also signed with some pretty popular
• 41:24
  teams. Uh, so that's gonna put him up. So I think you
• 41:27
  got also rainer Areas for the for the Giants. He's a seventeen year old
• 41:30
  signed for two point seven million, and so I think there's gonna be a
• 41:34
  number of those guys that just based on the there's just tools. Tools.
• 41:37
  He guys, you know, they're showing four or five tools or they're you
• 41:42
  know, really big guys like Vargas. He's he's like a six four shortstop
• 41:45
  the coming coming to to the Dodgers. And you know, if you read
• 41:51
  the scouting reports, it's tools, he projectable, it's all, it's all
• 41:53
  those terms of like we have no idea what he really is going to be,
• 41:57
  so we gave him two million dollars and we're gonna find out. So
• 42:00
  I think there are going to be some of those names that are chased because
• 42:04
  folks are looking for the next greatest thing. But you know, my enduring
• 42:10
  frustration with the card market in this space is just the overpay that you have
• 42:15
  to the people do for these prospects. You know, the prices that you're
• 42:20
  going to pay for these guys there. You know, twenty years from now
• 42:22
  their their hall if their Hall of Famers cards are still cheaper. There's just
• 42:28
  the some desire to have the big cards and ride the hot markets early really
• 42:34
  drives a lot of the collecting in this set. And with those chrome prospects,
• 42:44
  I'm counting it right now. I think it's twenty three parallels for each
• 42:47
  of these hundred cards and the prospects, and it looks like twelve parallels for
• 42:52
  your base. So they really turned the color parallel printing sheen up to a
• 43:00
  million going through all the prospects because you got two four soups, twelve parallels
• 43:08
  of the base. And here we go, here's here's your base. Parallels
• 43:13
  of just your regular cards, like I was talking about the regular Rookies and
• 43:15
  Stars. You've got pearl refractors, regular refractors, fushia refractors, aquall raywave,
• 43:22
  ray wave refractors, blue refractors, wave refractors, green refractors, yellow
• 43:30
  refractors, Gold, orange, red, super. So that's twelve. Here
• 43:36
  we go. Here's all twenty three for the prospects, because I know you
• 43:38
  want to hear all of them. Some of these are gonna be tongue twisters,
• 43:45
  shimmer refractor, pearl refractor, regular refractor, speckle refractor, purple refractor,
• 43:52
  purple shimmer refractor, fushia pink vapor wave refractor, fushia shimmer refractor,
• 43:59
  blue refractor, aqua refractor, aqua pink vapor refractor, green refractor, green
• 44:05
  shimmer refractor, yellow refractor, yellow orange vapor wave refractor, gold refractor,
• 44:12
  gold shimmer refractor, orange refractor, orange shimmer refractor, red refractor, red
• 44:17
  aqua vapor wave refractor, red shimmer super refractor. I did it. That's
• 44:24
  all I have to call. I have to call foul, not on you
• 44:28
  on tops on this one. You can't have three different variations of the same
• 44:35
  number of the same color refractor. For the red, the gold is there
• 44:38
  as well the red, You're right, orange, So from the gold,
• 44:45
  orange and red all have refractor versions, wave versions, shimmer versions, or
• 44:51
  mini diamond refractor versions. Like okay, what point when you have a gold
• 44:57
  out a fifty card there's three different goals out of fifties. It really out
• 45:00
  of fifty years at one fifty at some point like that's I mean, that's
• 45:06
  how you're getting your print runs up without make it trying to water down the
• 45:09
  numbered cards. It's just this kind of weird dynamic. There's like, oh,
• 45:13
  it's still easy to you can still pull the same rate out of fifty
• 45:16
  car but yet we've produced three times the products. It's like that's a head
• 45:20
  scratcher. It's like, how he because we've produced three different out of fifty
• 45:22
  cards. So it's, uh, you know, I don't know which version
• 45:28
  you collect, but I know they're fun to look at, their fun to
• 45:30
  collect. I just think you have to keep in context what you can find,
• 45:34
  you know, the numbered cards out of twenty twenty three sets compared to
• 45:37
  say at twenty nineteen set out of fifties, a whole big different ball of
• 45:42
  game for those. Yeah. Well, and the surprising thing with this product
• 45:46
  is the print running of the base cards. It's actually lower than it was
• 45:52
  last year. I think it's the first product that I've seen this year from
• 45:55
  Tops that is doing that so last year and this is again is coming from
• 46:02
  one of my favorite Twitter sites for hobby collecting tops BB he calculated the base
• 46:09
  from last year to be thirty two thousand, six hundred and thirty five.
• 46:15
  But that's also that boost up to eighty eight thousand, if you incluse megas.
• 46:21
  So he was just looking at the hobby boxes. So all in all,
• 46:27
  you're looking somewhere around like one hundred and twenty thousand overall base cards of
• 46:35
  you know, you're just no parallel. This year, the base is down
• 46:38
  to twenty nine thousand, four hundred and thirty from when he's calculated, and
• 46:43
  that is obviously before we have any mega odds or have seen megaboxes hit.
• 46:47
  So maybe it will be back above the one hundred and twenty thousand, because
• 46:52
  I think that has been a little bit of like what's boosted some of the
• 46:55
  print runs from the other sets this year is that TOPS is just really printing
• 47:01
  a lot of retail to put out there. So we'll see where that ultimately
• 47:06
  settles. But that is interesting because I think that really does also emphasize a
• 47:10
  little bit of what I was saying that like, if you want a card
• 47:14
  set of one hundred cards to collect really great rookies, really great names,
• 47:19
  this hundred cards set based set from Bowman Chrome. It's not a bad one
• 47:22
  to start with. It's it's not and it is one of those that,
• 47:25
  you know, if you like prospecting, it's an easy way to do prospecting.
• 47:30
  You know, it's it's not gonna be too expensive or too hard to
• 47:32
  collect all one hundred prospect cards. You know, put them in a box,
• 47:37
  sleeve them up, and you know, come back in a few years
• 47:39
  and say, hey, I've got the hot prospect in my box, you
• 47:43
  know, and be kind of excited about it. It is kind of a
• 47:45
  fun thing. I tend to kind of build these sets over time and just
• 47:50
  kind of hide them away. It's just kind of fun to go back later,
• 47:52
  look at the cards and say I don't have to go back and collect
• 47:55
  the big name when they're coming out. Hey I've got their card already.
• 47:59
  It's kind of a fun thing. Then there's a whole lumb if you want
• 48:01
  to break up your set or not and kind of bring that one out,
• 48:04
  And there's a whole internal debate I have to deal with every time around.
• 48:07
  So yeah, but at least you've got it to be able to make that
• 48:09
  debate exactly so, and then getting onto the gimmick, as if the refractor
• 48:14
  list I just read off wasn't gimmicky enough. If you remember from a few
• 48:19
  episodes ago when we detailed Roman Chrome at a very high level, we mentioned
• 48:24
  that they were going to do these retro fractors with Babe Ruth, Roberto Clemente
• 48:29
  and Johnny bench Is the third person. So what they're actually doing is they're
• 48:32
  producing cards of these three players that are quote unquote first Bowmans, and then
• 48:39
  Tops says that they will retire these players from Bowman products forever. I've seen
• 48:45
  a couple of places like online where they've been trying to like push Babe Ruth
• 48:51
  cards because saying like, oh, he's going out of print, blah blah
• 48:54
  blah. But that's only for Bowman cards, which I don't know how often
• 49:00
  they were using these players in Bowmen sets anyway, But I guess if you're
• 49:05
  real into collecting Bowman Roberto Clemente cards, this is your last chance. I
• 49:09
  think they'll still be a part of archives and all sorts of other sets going
• 49:14
  forward. But this is honestly like the weirdest thing I've ever seen in terms
• 49:22
  of like doing these retrofractors and trying to get the hype together to be able
• 49:27
  to sell them as being the last cards from these players. And so we'll
• 49:31
  see where some of these prices settle, but some of them right now,
• 49:35
  I've been crazy in terms of like hundreds of dollars for these base Babe Rusts
• 49:39
  and Roberto Clements right now, and I think it will really diminish because just
• 49:45
  like we were talking about, the base of these cards is probably a little
• 49:50
  bit more common than people have anticipated off the bat because of the megas that
• 49:54
  will include these, and there is no print number speci typically on the base.
• 50:00
  They do come in orange, red, and superfractors that have numbers on
• 50:05
  them, as well as gold that's not listed on the Beckett checklist, but
• 50:07
  I have seen gold ones out there. You can also get signed Johnny Bench
• 50:12
  ones. Johnny Bench did sign some, obviously, Babe Ruth and Virtual Clemente
• 50:16
  did not, So that will make the Johnny Bench, when I think,
• 50:20
  really fun to collect. If you're a Hall of Fame collector or a Bench
• 50:23
  or Red's collector. So, Drew, what do you think about this?
• 50:28
  Do you like this gimmick? Do you think they're going to use it a
• 50:30
  lot more? What are your thoughts. Okay, I don't like it.
• 50:35
  There's no beating around the bush on this one. I do not like it.
• 50:38
  It. To your point is, you can't claim it's the first Bowman
• 50:43
  card for Babe Ruth. They actually had a twenty sixteen Bowman cut chrome Babe
• 50:49
  Ruth card out there. It was it was a refractor that they had,
• 50:52
  so it was another insert before they've they've bought brought into the set before,
• 50:54
  so it's not his first time. And you know, it's you could just
• 51:00
  do this, You just create these guys out anywhere. The beauty of the
• 51:04
  first is that it was the first you collected it. You had to get
• 51:07
  it before he became something and then watch him as a career developed. Like,
• 51:12
  that's not what's happening with these guys. They are legends of the game,
• 51:16
  and so it it's it's unfortunate that they're trying to make this gimmick.
• 51:22
  Uh. At the same time, the cards are gonna be collectible. People
• 51:24
  are gonna want them just because of who they are. It's the first,
• 51:29
  it's rare, it's hard to find, and so the values are going to
• 51:32
  be up there. The biggest nit I have with these and I don't know
• 51:37
  how much you've looked at the designs of the cards. There is one piece
• 51:40
  I cannot stand and it stands out in the Babe Ruth card. So I
• 51:45
  don't know if you know what I'm talking about here, but the logo,
• 51:49
  oh oh yeah, I thought you might go there. I saw this.
• 51:52
  They're they're not that bad because the logo, the red Sox logo on this
• 51:58
  George Herman Ruth card, it looks like it was misprinted, like just based
• 52:02
  on the design, and there was a perfectly space box in the design to
• 52:07
  put Red Sox instead they put it with a nice little curved arc on top
• 52:12
  of the box, not not like sitting on top of that, like overlaid
• 52:15
  on the line of the box. It looks completely like it was misprinted and
• 52:20
  it looks just dreadful. So I don't know what they were thinking of when
• 52:24
  I got through quality control. I don't know what's going on there. But
• 52:29
  when I'm looking at some of the prices out here already, you know that
• 52:32
  there's one Gold Well, there's two Gold Ruth SSPs listed. There's one for
• 52:40
  buy now for seven thousand dollars, and there's one an auction's got almost three
• 52:45
  days left sitting at five hundred, and you know that's gonna go higher.
• 52:47
  And so it's just the prices are gonna be insane on these. At the
• 52:52
  same time, it's a major gimmick. These will never hold value. These
• 52:55
  will never hold any of that value. This is this is like alan Ginter
• 53:01
  and stuff. This is this is the egg card and alan Ginter. This
• 53:07
  is a Bitcoin alan Ginter or whatever card you want to call it. I
• 53:10
  cannot stand these, so I'll put my soapbox away. But it is I
• 53:15
  just don't know what they were thinking. I will disagree on it being like
• 53:20
  the alan Ginter cards because those, especially the Bitcoin one, they didn't print
• 53:25
  it that way for it to like take off like that, and it just
• 53:29
  kind of like turned into a life of its own. I like it when
• 53:31
  that happens. This is the opposite of that. They're trying to force that
• 53:36
  sort of life of its own and trying to breathe life into these cards.
• 53:40
  And unfortunately, I do think this is not the last time they're going to
• 53:45
  pull this gimmick that I think this will probably become a pretty regular thing for
• 53:50
  them, that they'll find a Hall of Famer like Johnny Bent to work into
• 53:53
  these sets to have autographed cards, but then also bring back other old people
• 54:00
  like Tai Cops, I Young, you know, some of these really old,
• 54:05
  ancient famous players that they can reuse their rights and quote unquote retire them
• 54:10
  from Bowman when, like I said, they weren't really getting used much in
• 54:15
  Bowman anyway. Bowman has always been kind of a rookies, stars prospects set,
• 54:22
  so retiring them from Bowman is really just trying to hype up what they've
• 54:27
  got here. So I have a prediction for you the Johnny Bench Auto.
• 54:31
  Yeah, it's gonna be a sticker auto. I'm just I'm going on a
• 54:36
  limb. It's gonna be a stickers auto. I just I just feel like
• 54:39
  the essence of the set, every Bowman card is always on card Auto.
• 54:45
  I just feel like that's just gonna be what comes out of this. Maybe
• 54:49
  maybe not, I'm sure it's not, but it's it's one of those just
• 54:51
  feels like what's gonna happen and your point. You know, next year they're
• 54:53
  gonna be coming out with you know, Luke Rock first, and it's gonna
• 54:59
  be a sticker auto because they have them sitting in a warehouse somewhere they hadn't
• 55:02
  used yet. I just feel that that's like the gimmick that they're gonna come
• 55:06
  across, and it's I get it the first time around. But and I
• 55:10
  personally thought was when they released just Ruth and Clemente kind of in some of
• 55:14
  the promos, I'm like, Okay, they're picking just two, you know,
• 55:17
  major names, and then you threw a Bench in there, and I'm
• 55:20
  like, all right. I mean Bench is a huge name, Don't get
• 55:23
  me wrong. He is not on the level of Clemente and Ruth. And
• 55:28
  you know, if you would have gone to a Demaggio or Garrig or a
• 55:31
  Maze or something like that, you know, another major name, I could
• 55:36
  be like, Okay, maybe this is one time thing. But when they
• 55:37
  threw Bench in there, and Bench is not my top ten Hall of Famers
• 55:39
  type of think, I think you're right. It kind of just opens the
• 55:44
  door for next year. And I'm seeing it. They got the stand usual,
• 55:46
  the Joe DiMAGE and the Willie Mays first next year, and it's gonna
• 55:51
  drive me bonkers. Oh yeah, absolutely. And so I just looked on
• 55:55
  eBay. There hasn't been one of those autos come out. I honestly,
• 55:59
  I think they will will be on card. I know they will. I'm
• 56:01
  just I'm just, I'm just this is just the way this one's going for
• 56:05
  me. I'm being a negative Nelly on this one. So but we'll keep
• 56:08
  our ice pield well if they are stickers, though, you will get quite
• 56:13
  the victory lap here on this pod. Okay, I've been a probably end
• 56:17
  up having to buy once. Good luck with that. Okay, that will
• 56:22
  wrap us up on bum and chrome. Then, so we will be back
• 56:28
  with dynasty talk on offseason trade strategies with some of the players that we like,
• 56:32
  some of the ones we don't like. We've got lots of players and
• 56:37
  lots of categories to talk through, so stick around and see what we think.
• 57:02
  Hey, welcome back everybody. To the categories portion of today's show.
• 57:07
  We for Fantasy Baseball are focusing on some offseason trading strategies for dynasty keepers and
• 57:15
  looking at guys that we can be looking to move on from guys that you
• 57:20
  can maybe even in some leagues, just be picking up off of wires,
• 57:23
  especially I think in keeper leagues, you know, leagues where maybe you're keeping
• 57:29
  five or ten that these guys you know, they might not be regular starters
• 57:32
  and some people's teams yet, so they might be still hanging out on waiver
• 57:36
  wivers and be ready for you to acquire and trade in the offseason. So
• 57:43
  we've got a couple of kind of loose categories that we'll get into and each
• 57:46
  pick a dude or two from each category to discuss. But I think with
• 57:52
  each kind of broad category, you'll also be able to pick up on what
• 57:54
  our strategies are in terms of who we're trying to pick up and move.
• 57:59
  And I wouldn't say necessarily like trying to swindle people with like these players,
• 58:04
  because I think a lot of them I like, But it's just you're trying
• 58:07
  to capitalize on their value to be able to move further up the rankings in
• 58:15
  your drafts for next year. Either by usually I'm using a lot of these
• 58:19
  guys to try and buy higher floors because some of the dudes that we're talking
• 58:24
  about have been either pop up guys or returning from injuries or just have other
• 58:30
  flaws that we would rather exchange and use that name value to be able to
• 58:37
  find guys that can provide just steady solid production for us during next year.
• 58:42
  And maybe just a little bit more star value. So, Jeremy, anything
• 58:45
  that you want to add before we start getting into some names. Yeah,
• 58:49
  I think the thing I went just echo what you're saying is like a lot
• 58:54
  of these guys are guys that you know you can still grab at this point
• 58:59
  and and keeper leagues, dynasty leagues. Did you go into the off season
• 59:02
  you're looking to kind of gain capital that you can use in the off season
• 59:07
  if you if you want to make a move, So you guys have a
• 59:10
  guy on your team is kind of a specialist feeling, feeling a role,
• 59:15
  but really you don't see having long term value. Who's the guy's gonna be
• 59:20
  on the waiver wire next year. That's the kind of guy you're casting out,
• 59:22
  especially if you're out of for the year and trying to pick up a
• 59:24
  few guys that, based on crazy fantasy analysts like us might be talking about
• 59:30
  the off season, they might get some helium behind him. All of a
• 59:32
  Sudding's like, yeah, I need that guy, and you can turn that
• 59:36
  into something else that you really need. Maybe you need, you know,
• 59:39
  a closer for your saves categories. I feel like that's where I'm always sitting
• 59:44
  and so You're like, hey, can I can have that up and coming
• 59:46
  young pitcher that there's a lot of variable ability risk, And somebody's like,
• 59:51
  yes, I believe in that guy. I'm gonna grab my red great article
• 59:53
  on him. And you're like, okay, just give me your back end
• 59:57
  closer and sure he's yours and you feel the need. So that, to
• 1:00:01
  me, that's a lot of what comes into these kind of guys. So
• 1:00:06
  I don't know, we'll toss it to you first. What's the first category
• 1:00:09
  of guys that we should the we're targeting at this point in the year.
• 1:00:14
  Yeah, And I think this is probably the easiest and most just obvious one
• 1:00:21
  to pick when you're looking at keepers and dynasty leagues, and that's just hot
• 1:00:24
  rookies, guys who have come up in torn up the league and have really
• 1:00:29
  built up a name value when the actual underlying statistics, you know, suggests
• 1:00:36
  that they're not totally who they are. And the first guy that I have,
• 1:00:39
  I love him to death because he has been Honestly, he's been.
• 1:00:44
  According to Ben Clements from Fangraphs, he wrote an article yesterday that declared him
• 1:00:49
  the greatest hitter of all time, and he has been for his first twenty
• 1:00:52
  three games, and that's David Schneider from the Toronto Blue Jays. He currently,
• 1:00:59
  through twenty five games, has been slashing three seventy five hundred eight fifteen
• 1:01:05
  on the slug It's good for a two fifty one r WRC. Plus he's
• 1:01:09
  got eight homers, twenty one runs and twenty RBI. That paces out to
• 1:01:15
  just about upper forties homers, one hundred and twenty on the runs and RBIs
• 1:01:22
  if you did it over a full season. And I mean that's come with
• 1:01:27
  actual like production. So this isn't even a guy who is outstripping the batted
• 1:01:32
  ball data. He's got a twenty one percent barrel rate, a forty percent
• 1:01:37
  hard hit rate, and just seems to be popping a homer every night.
• 1:01:42
  But because of that, you obviously know that this isn't going to keep up
• 1:01:45
  at this level. I do like David Schneider as like a really nice kind
• 1:01:50
  of back end am I guy for next year and maybe could be like something
• 1:01:55
  like a little bit of almost like a right handed Brandon Lao may be a
• 1:02:00
  little bit better average, maybe a little less playing time as the league figures
• 1:02:04
  them out, because I do think Schneider has legitimate skills. He came through
• 1:02:07
  the minors with lots of double digit walk rates. But this is exactly like
• 1:02:12
  the type of guy where you find somebody who sees this hot stretch, and
• 1:02:16
  especially if Schneider can finish off the last two weeks like this and maybe even
• 1:02:21
  have a little bit of a playoff run, somebody might be talking themselves into
• 1:02:24
  maybe thinking, you know, Randy Rosaaino really popped up in twenty twenty and
• 1:02:29
  got hot. You know, somebody could really project some big things onto the
• 1:02:32
  second baseman. I'm not going to quite go there like I will. I
• 1:02:37
  think he's rosterable, but I'm not going to be probleasing really huge values on
• 1:02:43
  him. So this is I think, like a type of guy that you
• 1:02:45
  can maybe swap out for somebody and like the low teams, you know,
• 1:02:52
  in terms of keeper value, Like you know, if you're trying to line
• 1:02:55
  it up, I'm thinking, you know, like a third or fourth outfielder
• 1:03:00
  or third or fourth pitcher to be able to just show up my team and
• 1:03:02
  be able to find another second baseman. Am I somewhere else? Yeah,
• 1:03:07
  I'm right there with you. If Schneider has just been on an unbelievable streak.
• 1:03:12
  You know, we'll give him a little credit on the baby luck here
• 1:03:15
  is having a five hundred baby but you know, you look at his minor
• 1:03:21
  league track record, and in twenty three he seems to have gone off and
• 1:03:24
  I don't I haven't looked enough at Schneider. No, did he make a
• 1:03:28
  key tweak early in the season whatnot. But before that, you know,
• 1:03:31
  he's been arguably like a two thirty hitter, maybe like fifteen home run power.
• 1:03:36
  Like, he's not been anything special for you know, basically the last
• 1:03:39
  like six years in the miners until this year. Maybe he figures something out.
• 1:03:45
  I'm gonna say, no, I'm gonna I'm just gonna go out on
• 1:03:49
  a limb. To your point, I think that's where you say, you
• 1:03:51
  know, I think he's that middle enfield. He's rosterable, and he's the
• 1:03:54
  kind of guy if you pick up and you know, depending on how your
• 1:03:57
  keeper the league works, if you're paying bucket an auction or you know,
• 1:04:00
  last late round pick, like, sure, give the gamble. See.
• 1:04:05
  But at the same time, I think there's gonna be somebody out there that
• 1:04:09
  values him high enough that they're going to be interested so I think it gives
• 1:04:13
  you options. So I like that. I like that call. He's also
• 1:04:15
  a guy that like, I mean, his zips WRC projections already up to
• 1:04:20
  one seventeen for US year, his steamers at one twelve. The numbers have
• 1:04:27
  been so superlative in the minors last year and this year that his baseline projections
• 1:04:33
  have really come up. So if there is somebody just kind of punching the
• 1:04:39
  projections into a calculator, he's going to kick out I think a pretty decent
• 1:04:43
  value next year. So he could end up being protected like azo one fifteen
• 1:04:48
  to one twenty WRC plus hitter and starting for the Blue Jays in just a
• 1:04:55
  really nice lineup. So, like I said, I don't not David Schneider.
• 1:05:00
  I just think that you can get more from him in a trade than
• 1:05:03
  you could from keeping him. Yeah, so who's your pick? Yeah,
• 1:05:09
  I'm gonna I'm gonna go with another guy that I feel kind of fits the
• 1:05:13
  same mold as far as the value per set. But I'm gonna go to
• 1:05:15
  over to the mound and grab a Jordan Wicks from Chicago Cups. Wicks has
• 1:05:23
  been nothing short of fantastic since getting called up he's got four starts at the
• 1:05:30
  major league level, he's got three wins. You know, he's got a
• 1:05:33
  one ninety nine r A h he's got an XTRAA of two six nine,
• 1:05:39
  a FIP of three one seven, less than two walks per nine, really
• 1:05:45
  nothing too crazy in the luck categories. The drawback he's had at this point
• 1:05:50
  is he's only got a six k per nine. He showed off very well
• 1:05:55
  in his first game of the season. I think he had nine strikeouts if
• 1:05:59
  I recall, and he's a little rough lux since then. But throughout his
• 1:06:02
  career, his minor league career, he's been a pretty high strikeout guy.
• 1:06:08
  And so for four our starts, I'm not taking a ton of stock into
• 1:06:11
  how many strikeouts are not he has. And what what I like about Wicks
• 1:06:15
  for kind of off season trade value is, you know, he's only to
• 1:06:18
  get maybe two more starts for the season. You know, we'll see where
• 1:06:24
  the Cubs end up in this wild card chaos that that's gonna ensue. So
• 1:06:29
  maybe he gets a little postseason hype as well. But I think he's gonna
• 1:06:33
  finish with some pretty good numbers, an inside track to a starting job next
• 1:06:38
  year, and people are gonna look at him and go, man, he
• 1:06:40
  could be really something. He's a first round pick, he's got pedigree.
• 1:06:44
  They can talk themselves into a two or three starter out of Jordan Wicks.
• 1:06:49
  I think Jordan Wicks. I love him on my team as my six or
• 1:06:54
  seven starter. As you talk about floors versus ceiling, I think he has
• 1:06:58
  a really good ceiling. I think he has a relatively low floor right now.
• 1:07:00
  He's pitched four games in the majors, and so if somebody's paying you
• 1:07:05
  like a two or three starter, even a four starter, there's a really
• 1:07:10
  good return for a guy that you just picked up. And we're right,
• 1:07:14
  and you know you're going to the Fantasy playoffs week and just trying to find
• 1:07:16
  a guy to get just some innings. I think Wicks really fits into that
• 1:07:20
  category. Well, you're not too upset if you end up with him,
• 1:07:24
  but you might you very well could get something pretty valuable for him if you
• 1:07:29
  got the right person in the league. Yeah, And I think this was
• 1:07:31
  a great pick because he's almost like the Davis Schneider version on the pitching side,
• 1:07:36
  because he has been so hot. Like you said, the strikeouts haven't
• 1:07:41
  been there, But I think what's even more impressive is in his four starts,
• 1:07:45
  He's pitched both in Cincinnati and in Colorado in those four starts and survived
• 1:07:50
  both. So just having the moxie to be able to survive the two best
• 1:07:56
  hitters parks and going to Cincinnati and face in them when you're in the middle
• 1:08:00
  of this wild card race together, he just he has great mound presence.
• 1:08:05
  And this is also another really great guy that if you have somebody in your
• 1:08:10
  league that actually watches a lot of baseball, Jordan Wicks is somebody who,
• 1:08:15
  like I would love to have on my real life team and in my real
• 1:08:18
  life rotation because he has a great mound presence. He has just the right
• 1:08:25
  moxie to be able to carry himself through as a starting pitcher. But it's
• 1:08:30
  not going to translate as great into a fantasy realm. And so I think
• 1:08:33
  who actually reminds me of is a bit almost like Shane Bieber, kind of
• 1:08:39
  like I've never been in on Shane Bieber much because of this, Like Shane
• 1:08:43
  Bieber is a much better real life pitcher than he is fantasy pitcher that he
• 1:08:45
  knows how to work pictures or he knows how to work better swings, and
• 1:08:51
  he just is able to pinpoint his pitches where he wants to. Wix reminds
• 1:08:57
  me a lot that Rix has a lot of command, but he comes from
• 1:09:00
  the left side. He's got a great changeup. He can read picture,
• 1:09:02
  he can read I keep from mixing up, and he reads batter as well.
• 1:09:06
  And just when he's working well with the slider fastball changeup, when you're
• 1:09:12
  watching it, it looks really really good. It's inducing Greek contact. But
• 1:09:17
  because he's always going to be lacking in those strikeouts, I think he's a
• 1:09:20
  great piece to try to move if people are just looking at the array and
• 1:09:25
  are just noticing like what he can bring as a real life picture. Yeah,
• 1:09:30
  I like the Shane Bieber company, I said, because I actually really
• 1:09:32
  like Shane Bieber myself. But he does remind me to a degree of Shane
• 1:09:38
  Bieber, because you're right, he he what you see is slightly better than
• 1:09:45
  what the fantasy result and it's a very interesting dynamic and that and that plays
• 1:09:49
  with you right a lot of the times when you see, like you watch
• 1:09:51
  a picture and they're like the crazy movement and the velocity and things like that.
• 1:09:57
  He's like, man, this guy puts it together, he's gonna be
• 1:09:59
  a fantasy b Bieber and Wicks that they don't. They have some element of
• 1:10:04
  that, but since they feel like they're pitching to contact to a degree or
• 1:10:08
  they're trying to outmatch the hitter, they don't get that same result, even
• 1:10:12
  though they might have some of that same stuff. It's a really interesting dynamic
• 1:10:15
  with those guys. Yeah, and just to let people know, like other
• 1:10:19
  guys that we were thinking about in this category that I think would also fit
• 1:10:23
  in here, players like Javira as Sad Luis Matos, Hunter Goodman, Gabriel
• 1:10:30
  Moreno. All guys who are playing maybe just a little bit over their skis
• 1:10:33
  have good situations for home ballparks, especially if you're wanted Hunter Goodman, but
• 1:10:39
  have looked really good down the stretch, and a few of them are entering
• 1:10:43
  some really prime playoff races that they're going to get maybe some national media attention,
• 1:10:47
  and that could boost their value just a bit beyond what their actual draft
• 1:10:51
  stock should be. So good guys to try to emphasize trading and just capitalize
• 1:10:58
  on that value now. Yeah, and at the end of the day,
• 1:11:00
  you pick one of these guys up for somebody who's not gonna, you know,
• 1:11:02
  provide you value. Next from maybe that middle re leaver giving you some
• 1:11:05
  ratio help you know that you drop from one of these guys, if nothing
• 1:11:10
  happens with them, you're not out anything. So these are those Those are
• 1:11:13
  guys that to take that fly run definitely get some value there. So all
• 1:11:17
  right, so let's let's jump this next category. And this is I have
• 1:11:20
  a love hate relationship with this category because I play in the space too much
• 1:11:25
  and I get burned just as much as I play. It's the injured list
• 1:11:30
  guys. It's the guys that are finishing the season on the injured list or
• 1:11:33
  just coming back from it or didn't quite get back in the rehab. So
• 1:11:39
  they're getting dropped from fantasy owners lineups because they're trying to make the playoff run,
• 1:11:43
  trying to finish the top of the rodal standings in the year and they
• 1:11:45
  need indings something like that. And they these guys have been cast off even
• 1:11:49
  though they know talent wise, uh they were they may have been drafted high,
• 1:11:54
  things like that. And there's a temptation here with number of guys to
• 1:12:00
  say, hey, can I pick up this guy that's kind of cast off
• 1:12:03
  because injury. But he's been so good in the past. And I think
• 1:12:09
  a lot of these guys, if they get some healthy reports, their stock
• 1:12:12
  can really jump up in the off season and people can believe that they're back
• 1:12:16
  to pre injury form, whether or not they actually are. Just the national
• 1:12:20
  media reports sometimes can influence these types of guys very heavily. So the guy
• 1:12:29
  that I'm going to call out here as far as injured guys, that fits
• 1:12:33
  this, I think to a t for me, and I'm staying on the
• 1:12:36
  mound is Nick Ladolo over in Cincinnati. If you look at Niclodolo, he
• 1:12:44
  made seven starts this year, He's got a sparkling six twenty nine er A
• 1:12:49
  and he ended up hurting his leg and he but he you know, they
• 1:12:57
  think he's gonna avoid surgery, but he's not going to, you know,
• 1:13:00
  be a factor the rest of this this season. But if you look at
• 1:13:05
  his underlying stat he's actually looked pretty much like the player he was last year
• 1:13:12
  when he was seemingly starting to break out. He and just the seventh starts
• 1:13:15
  he only had thirty four to third innings, he had over twelve K per
• 1:13:19
  nine. He had about a two and a half walk for nine. He
• 1:13:24
  was facing a four thirty five babit, so that that EARA was definitely overstated.
• 1:13:30
  The underlying EARA metrics with your x crara fIF your x fip are literally
• 1:13:34
  all over the place. His x fips at three eight, his fips at
• 1:13:39
  five seven nine, Like, I don't know the metrics. You know what
• 1:13:41
  to think of him that at that point, but there's a there's a lot
• 1:13:45
  to kind of like about what he what he was doing. I think he
• 1:13:48
  uh not probably surprisingly pitching, and Cincinnati got it hurt a little bit by
• 1:13:54
  the long ball, which will will show up. But as I look through
• 1:13:58
  the rest of the profile, you know, if he's if he's healthy,
• 1:14:01
  he's really really really interesting. And I think folks will have really really soured
• 1:14:06
  on him just because the numbers look so bad and he was kind of out
• 1:14:11
  of sight, out of mind for so long that I think he's a guy
• 1:14:15
  that you know, whether he was cast off, whether you just held on
• 1:14:18
  to him all year, I think you can easily look at him and dream
• 1:14:24
  on him. That the worst part about Nicolodolo for me is I could easily
• 1:14:29
  see having him and then dreaming on him myself and being like, yeah,
• 1:14:33
  look he's my number two starter next year. Looks Ludolo is gonna break out
• 1:14:36
  again like I thought he was this year, but then he just got hurt,
• 1:14:40
  so right, that's the danger. Luckily for him is not an arm
• 1:14:44
  injury that we're coming off of, so I think there's some legitimacy to that.
• 1:14:47
  But I think Nicolodolo is if I'm gonna grab an injured guy to put
• 1:14:53
  in on the roster, especially you know he might you might have a free
• 1:14:57
  spot with the sixty day I l I really like him just as an option
• 1:15:02
  for the off season. They know what the price you get and what the
• 1:15:04
  market is out there. Yeah, and I think he's a pitcher too that
• 1:15:10
  could catch a lot of helium just come draft time. I think that happened
• 1:15:15
  a lot this year, and I wasn't totally in because I'm just not quite
• 1:15:20
  as big on Cincinnati pitching trying to manage handling great American small park, and
• 1:15:28
  so he was drafted. Is like the one hundred and thirty fifth player off
• 1:15:33
  the board. Back in spring drafts this year, right around Joe Ryan was
• 1:15:40
  getting draft next to him, Lucas Giolito Johann Duran, Chris Sale. So
• 1:15:45
  I mean he was being drafted as like a two or three starting pitcher,
• 1:15:50
  and so that was coming off of a pretty I would say, like it
• 1:15:57
  was a good stretched down twenty two two, but like the fifth was higher
• 1:16:01
  than the ra and the I think people were really falling in love with that.
• 1:16:05
  Canine that again that if you find somebody who will fall in love with
• 1:16:10
  those strikeouts and needs strikeouts, you might be able to capitalize and trade Ludolo.
• 1:16:15
  And I think when it comes back to the spring next year, the
• 1:16:19
  Reds are going to be a pretty sexy pick to win the NL Central or
• 1:16:23
  to get one of the wild card spots. As they grow a year together,
• 1:16:28
  and Ludolo will pick up I think a little bit of that helium.
• 1:16:30
  So I think he's somebody who the news isn't great now, but like when
• 1:16:35
  January and February kind of roll around and people are starting to look at their
• 1:16:41
  sleepers and stuff, Ludolo I think will be on a lot of people's sleeper
• 1:16:45
  lists, and that's the time when you can capitalize and try to trade him
• 1:16:47
  for him for something a little more steady, Because unless I'm mistaken, I
• 1:16:53
  think He's battled other injuries other than this lower legs, so he has Yeah,
• 1:16:59
  I think that that's a scary part. And then you're right, like,
• 1:17:01
  I'm just looking at his numbers now, I'm like, man, look
• 1:17:04
  at what he could be. Right you get's easy to dream on him,
• 1:17:09
  and I find myself doing it right now. So self, if you have
• 1:17:13
  lidola in one of our leagues, I'll take him. But I'm right there
• 1:17:17
  with you. He's he's going to be an articles, he's going to get
• 1:17:20
  some of that helium call. Let's just say January February timeline. He's gonna
• 1:17:26
  get like some healthy report. There's gonna be a video of him go viral
• 1:17:29
  on X of him, you know, topping out at ninety seven because he
• 1:17:32
  went to drive line. There's gonna be something like that. And he's gonna
• 1:17:36
  jump up draft boards even though he's not proven he can be healthy. And
• 1:17:41
  yeah, it's not easy to pin pitch in Cincinnati. Yeah, and when
• 1:17:44
  you're at six sixth lefty, people will left dreaming on you. But you
• 1:17:46
  can just see it, like looking at his page, like there aren't very
• 1:17:49
  many innings and he's twenty five, and it's just it is a little shaky
• 1:17:55
  from that perspective, but people will keep, I think, buying him.
• 1:18:00
  And so, yeah, who I wouldna say, who do you have in
• 1:18:03
  this list? Who jumps out to you as the injured list kind of guy?
• 1:18:09
  I think the guy that I'm going to go with is kind of similar.
• 1:18:12
  It's Chris Paddock from The Twins. People again have dreamed on him for
• 1:18:16
  a long time. He's got the big six five frame, and he even
• 1:18:20
  like he looked really really good last year with Minnesota before he went down with
• 1:18:25
  this injury. He had a four h three array, but it was a
• 1:18:28
  one seventy two fit behind it because he wasn't walking anybody. He was at
• 1:18:33
  less than one walk per game, and he's always really limited the walks.
• 1:18:39
  I just loved that he went to Minnesota and went to a place with a
• 1:18:44
  great pitching development. But what I'm worried about is going into next year that
• 1:18:49
  walk rate creeping up, because that is the last thing that comes back around
• 1:18:54
  in a return from Tom John surgery, which is what he's returning from right
• 1:18:58
  now. And honestly, he might get a couple of starts in down the
• 1:19:00
  stretch. Here again, another guy who might get some postseason time and boost
• 1:19:06
  his profile a little bit, especially if he comes in and is looking good.
• 1:19:11
  And people have always been on this Chris Paddock train for a long time
• 1:19:15
  and he's been a guy to dream on. But he's going to be twenty
• 1:19:18
  seven coming off of Tommy John again, I'll probably have some shares. But
• 1:19:21
  like, if you can find the one or two other players in your league
• 1:19:27
  that might be more ravenous about Chris Paddock and have been watching his comeback this
• 1:19:31
  year, I would certainly trade out that risk to try to find something a
• 1:19:36
  little bit more stable than Chris Paddock and being able to either like find maybe
• 1:19:43
  a pitcher in the same tier, but just like without the injury concerns,
• 1:19:47
  or trying to find something more of like a prospect bat that you can dream
• 1:19:53
  on, that you've been really looking at from another competitors team that you know
• 1:19:59
  maybe is one of like the top line guys, but it's been somebody that
• 1:20:02
  you want to rebuild your team with. Yeah. I think he just had
• 1:20:08
  a rehab start, was just yesterday, And there's two really interesting things about
• 1:20:15
  this rehab start. The first of all, he pitched for the Wichita wind
• 1:20:18
  Surge. Just the fact that you there's a team named the wind Surge.
• 1:20:24
  There's nothing more Midwest than name and your team after the weather. So that
• 1:20:29
  that was to me, Actually the most interesting part of about his rehab start.
• 1:20:31
  The other part was, you know, he struck out six guys in
• 1:20:34
  four innings. He looked pretty gush darn sharp. And to your point,
• 1:20:40
  if he goes on a few rehab starts, looks sharp, gets like one
• 1:20:44
  start at the major league level, and you know, maybe he comes out
• 1:20:46
  of the bullpen or something like that throwing gas because he can. He's more
• 1:20:49
  of a two start pitcher. If if I recall, I think that he
• 1:20:53
  easily could boost that stock if people can dream on him again, I'm right
• 1:20:58
  there with you. He's always been that guy that you just thought was just
• 1:21:00
  right there, and he was just you know, a little bit away,
• 1:21:04
  maybe a pitch away being a two star pitch guy, which Spencer Strider's ruined
• 1:21:09
  that theory for pretty much everybody. And so yeah, I think Paddock's an
• 1:21:15
  interesting pick. And nobody's really looking at him right now. And you know,
• 1:21:17
  if if he asked me, I don't think anybody's really thinking about Paddocks.
• 1:21:19
  They're seeing a little bit of what that start he got. He's that
• 1:21:24
  kind of guy that you might pick up and somebody's be like, yeah,
• 1:21:26
  I need him to broke round up my rotation and I can dream on him.
• 1:21:29
  So he's got this crazy high ceiling and you know they're gonna be willing
• 1:21:32
  to take a take a gamble. Oh yeah, absolutely. So what were
• 1:21:35
  some other guys that you were kind of thinking about in this category that would
• 1:21:40
  fall into this you know, injured right now, could be cheap to pick
• 1:21:44
  up, but could be fodder for some trades in the offseason. Yeah,
• 1:21:47
  I think you know, there's there's a number of pictures and you know that's
• 1:21:50
  probably the scarier guys that fall in this list with like you're Shane Biebers,
• 1:21:54
  You're Jeffrey Springs, You're you Darvish, you know the you know, Drew
• 1:21:59
  Rasmus him, uh, Walker Bueller. There's there's a list of those kind
• 1:22:02
  of guys. But then you also on the hitting side, you have like
• 1:22:04
  a Vinny Pasque Kim I'm not gonna get that one, right, Vini Pascuetweino,
• 1:22:10
  Uh, just addit that later, Starling Marte. Uh, You've got
• 1:22:14
  Andrew McCutcheon, You've got some guys, uh, you know Garrett Mitchell that
• 1:22:19
  uh, a lot of speed type guys outside of Vinny that definitely seel like
• 1:22:26
  they have a lot of potential. I think Michael Conforto is an interesting one.
• 1:22:29
  He was like in this mode last year where it's like, oh,
• 1:22:31
  he's you know he it was an injury last year, just it was injury.
• 1:22:34
  Then he didn't sign and it was just like, oh, he's gonna
• 1:22:38
  come back, He's at thirty bombs at two sixty and be great. Then
• 1:22:41
  he signed with the Giants and that was out the window playing in that ballpark.
• 1:22:45
  But yeah, I think there's a lot of guys that fall in this
• 1:22:47
  category. It's easy to get carried away in this category. I do it
• 1:22:50
  all the time. You have to find the right guys that, you know,
• 1:22:56
  stay away from pictures with armor arm injuries, Uh, stay from guys
• 1:23:00
  that they steal base with legth injuries. You know, you gotta be thinking
• 1:23:03
  through. There's nothing like grabbing a power hitter with a handmade injury or risk
• 1:23:08
  injury and expecting them to come back the way they were before. There's an
• 1:23:12
  adjustment period for almost all of these guys coming back. So that's where you
• 1:23:15
  have to be paying attention to what's going on with them. But somebody's gonna
• 1:23:19
  dream on them, probably gonna be me, Yeah, And I mean the
• 1:23:24
  other part with them too is that you I think, like you will remember
• 1:23:29
  the ones that burn you and the ones that like I do think of the
• 1:23:33
  guys that you rad off, like probably twenty to twenty five percent of them
• 1:23:38
  will be solid and out earned their value value. But you've got to it's
• 1:23:43
  a little bit of like a volume game here that like when you're going through
• 1:23:47
  and using these types of players, it is hard to like detach yourself from
• 1:23:54
  that name value because of the injury. But you're not gonna I think you're
• 1:23:59
  gonna win in more times than not because just the injuries are not fun to
• 1:24:04
  deal with. And they a lot of the guys that you rattled off,
• 1:24:08
  you know, they're coming back from Tommy John's and shoulders and really intense surgeries,
• 1:24:13
  and especially thinking about like Michael Unporto coming into this year that he was
• 1:24:18
  coming off of some major shoulder surgery. Starving Marte like really fell down this
• 1:24:24
  year because of that core surgery that he's still not fully recovered from. And
• 1:24:28
  so that's another thing to kind of keep your eye out for, is like
• 1:24:30
  if you're getting any sort of excitement for players that have had significant surgeries that
• 1:24:36
  are really altering major pieces of their body. Like I listened on a lot
• 1:24:44
  more of those trades just because, like it is easier to round down on
• 1:24:47
  those types of injuries. Yeah, I already see it this offseason, and
• 1:24:50
  I'll league that the you and I are both in I've got Walker Bueller,
• 1:24:55
  who arguably top five arm, whim fully healthy, and I've got Coal Pagans,
• 1:25:00
  arguably the best arm that there has been outside of Maybe we should have
• 1:25:03
  talked about the starter he just had the kick off of this. I don't
• 1:25:06
  know if you paid attention to his three wild pitches where he basically fell fell
• 1:25:11
  off the mount. But you're here and are there like those type of dynamics,
• 1:25:15
  Like you got this guy that is pitching unbelievably feels like he's figured something
• 1:25:19
  out, but he doesn't have the name value, but he's healthy. Do
• 1:25:23
  you go with that or do you go with the guy that has a pedigree
• 1:25:26
  of a top five fantasy pitcher and he's pitching in one of the one of
• 1:25:30
  the best teams out there, and you can just dream on twenty wins,
• 1:25:32
  you know, two hundred k's, and he might be out in May.
• 1:25:36
  So it's it's a very it's a it's a risky spot to play, so
• 1:25:42
  absolutely. So we've got one more category, a third category, which is
• 1:25:46
  just like your straight sell high. So these are some of the guys that
• 1:25:50
  have been stalwarts of teams this year or just really buzzy, hyped up prospects
• 1:25:59
  that I think both of us are looking to move on from because either the
• 1:26:04
  name value outstrips the production value or there's some wartz in their profiles. And
• 1:26:11
  so the first one that I've got in this category is Andrew Abbott from the
• 1:26:15
  Reds. So we're really dogging on the Reds pitching here. But Andrew Abbott,
• 1:26:20
  I think it has carried a lot of people in throughout their fantasy seasons
• 1:26:25
  as he's really been a steady contributor of strikeouts and wins. He's up to
• 1:26:31
  eight wins, eight and five record overall in his eighteen starts, a nine
• 1:26:36
  point seven K nine, so that's good for one hundred and seven strikeouts in
• 1:26:41
  his ninety nine innings since he's come up with a three sixty four ARRA.
• 1:26:45
  But what's underlying the hood is when he came through the minor leagues, his
• 1:26:49
  command grades are always not great, and that's kind of how he was able
• 1:26:55
  to be underneath so many radars, and that's really starting to rear its ugly
• 1:27:00
  head in the second half here. Let me pull up his second half numbers.
• 1:27:06
  When he's been in he's had eleven starts, and he's up to a
• 1:27:14
  four fifty five year RAY over those eleven starts here in the second half,
• 1:27:17
  but that walk rate is starting to creep up towards four. It's set three
• 1:27:21
  nine with being three five on the regular season, and it's even it's just
• 1:27:27
  degrading further. Like if you take it back to a sample of his last
• 1:27:31
  eight starts, this is when it's really kind of gone off the rails a
• 1:27:35
  little bit for him. He has a six fifty one year ra in his
• 1:27:39
  last eight starts with four eight walk per nine, and that's also come in
• 1:27:44
  with almost one and a half homers per nine, and so it's a little
• 1:27:48
  bit of fatigue, but it's also a little bit of the league figuring out
• 1:27:51
  Andrew Rabbit, and so he's probably got two more starts left. He can
• 1:27:57
  probably keep his season year ray under four war and still look like he's got
• 1:28:01
  a really solid season line. So if you have somebody, especially in your
• 1:28:05
  league, that you know, maybe was out of it down the stretch and
• 1:28:10
  wasn't fully paying attention to it, Andrew Abbott turned into in the second half
• 1:28:14
  and has really since like the beginning of August. They might not get the
• 1:28:17
  full picture, but Andrew rabbits somebody that like, I'm fading going into drafts
• 1:28:23
  even next year, that not only do I not like the home ballpark situation,
• 1:28:29
  but he's kind of showing what he was originally projected to be as a
• 1:28:34
  prospect, and like, now that the league is caught up to him,
• 1:28:39
  I think a lot of that magic is going to be disappearing, and it
• 1:28:43
  could be a really tough year because Abbott hasn't had really like a great chance
• 1:28:46
  to go through struggles and bounce back. So we'll see if he can just
• 1:28:51
  handle that as a young player. But definitely somebody, if somebody is coming
• 1:28:56
  to me and approaching me about Abbott, I am engaging and maybe even like
• 1:29:01
  trying to split him into some smaller assets just to be able to mitigate that
• 1:29:06
  risk. Now, yeah, I fully agree and you made the biggest point
• 1:29:12
  I was gonna make on Abbott, which is that his season line will still
• 1:29:15
  look good. And I think that's the biggest thing here, is that you're
• 1:29:19
  gonna look can see might almost a ten k per nine. You're gonna look
• 1:29:23
  at it, you know, amid to high threes earra and see, Oh
• 1:29:27
  he's just a young guy. He was in Cincinnati. You know, he
• 1:29:30
  maybe he was a little unlucky, and it's just a matter of he keeps
• 1:29:33
  figuring a few things out and he's gonna be He's gonna be, you know,
• 1:29:36
  pushing low threes. Yarra is he's gonna get ten caper nine next year.
• 1:29:40
  Look at what he could become. I think that's the risk you take
• 1:29:44
  with a guy, a guy like this, And I think there's gonna be
• 1:29:47
  many people that are high on Andrew Abbott going in and they're they're gonna be
• 1:29:53
  sadly mistaken. So I have to stay in Cincinnati. We are really this
• 1:30:00
  has been turned into the Cincinnati Reads a segment here, but I'm stay see
• 1:30:08
  it's very true. I'm stay in Cincinnati. And this one's probably gonna be
• 1:30:11
  controversial to a degree. With Ellie Dela Cruz and you know, he has
• 1:30:17
  come up. He has set the world on fire to a degree in the
• 1:30:20
  majors. You know, he's got eleven homers, twenty six stolen bases.
• 1:30:27
  His baby ifs within reason for a guide with his speed, definitely a strikeout
• 1:30:31
  profile. He's a thirty four percent strikeout rate, which is very much the
• 1:30:35
  top of the league. And I didn't look to see how far, but
• 1:30:39
  it is probably the top, you know, two three percentiles of the league
• 1:30:43
  from strikeout perspective. And he, like I said, he fills the stat
• 1:30:48
  sheet, which is what's exciting about him. He's hitting in the hitter's ballpark,
• 1:30:51
  he's sitting on a young, upstart team. There's so many things that
• 1:30:55
  are exciting about him. It's easy to dream on him going what thirty five
• 1:31:00
  seventy what's you doing? Yeah, that might be a little little far out
• 1:31:03
  there, but it's not hard to squint and see a guy that can go
• 1:31:06
  twenty five fifty uh and be like, yeah, he can do that because
• 1:31:12
  he's extremely fast, he's extremely athletic, extremely talented. The the problem with
• 1:31:17
  him is he he reminds me of h and this is a name and fantasy
• 1:31:25
  circles that many people have loved over the years. He reminds me of a
• 1:31:28
  little bit of Aldeberto Mondescy. Okay, he has that tantalizing speed power combo.
• 1:31:35
  He cannot get it. I'm worried he can knock it out of his
• 1:31:39
  own way with the strikeouts and he becomes one of those guys that he doesn't
• 1:31:44
  walk enough, He strikes out too much. He doesn't get on based us
• 1:31:46
  to speed like he gets in that that realm. Now, I don't think
• 1:31:53
  he's there yet, Like Mandessy to me, there's a few seasons it was
• 1:31:58
  just so obvious, like, don't invest in this guy. He's never healthy,
• 1:32:00
  he's got all the other issues with them. He could win a league
• 1:32:02
  if he stays healthy for you. I think Dela Cruz kind of could win
• 1:32:05
  a league for you if everything breaks right. And I just think that the
• 1:32:12
  hype value of what he potentially could become is worth more than what he really
• 1:32:17
  is. He's still a valuable asset, but he's also is a guy that
• 1:32:21
  could hit two forty h pop up only ten home runs and you know,
• 1:32:27
  not have enough RBIs and steal thirty bases and get hurt because he goes all
• 1:32:32
  out so I think that he has a high ceiling but a very low floor,
• 1:32:36
  and somebody's going to come to you would be willing to give you a
• 1:32:40
  first or second round value for Ellie Della Cruz, and I think you should
• 1:32:45
  take it. Yeah, no, I agree. And the guy who I
• 1:32:48
  thought you're actually going to say, mindus, he's a really great comp that's
• 1:32:51
  a really good one was actually he reminds me also stat line wise vr Jonathan
• 1:32:58
  vrre a little bit, yes, yea, And so he's the same way
• 1:33:00
  too, Like the it's just the it's the oscillation between the highs and lows
• 1:33:06
  is so absurd that, like, especially if you have a I think a
• 1:33:12
  lot of what I've had success with who in fantasy teams is playing like a
• 1:33:17
  decently high floor strategy. And if you're able to especially like get a really
• 1:33:26
  high value pick out of Ellie and swap it out for something that is just
• 1:33:31
  steadier, you know, something like I mean like a Matt Olson or a
• 1:33:36
  Pie Alonzo or a vlad Garreo Junior or somebody that like just produces a little
• 1:33:43
  bit more steadily across the board and isn't the peaks and valleys. I would
• 1:33:46
  prefer that just because like it allows you to build from there as opposed to
• 1:33:53
  if you're building on somebody. I've also tried to build teams around VR and
• 1:33:57
  Mondacy, and those teams crumble really fast because once that foundation gives way on
• 1:34:03
  you and they hit the DL or they just aren't making enough contact, it
• 1:34:09
  sinks everything around you pretty quickly because your baseline of what you were expecting from
• 1:34:15
  them was just not enough to get it done. The other thing I don't
• 1:34:18
  like about Cruz is like I think I'm in the same boat with you on
• 1:34:24
  him until he brings up that ground ball rate. Like the ground ball rate
• 1:34:29
  is just way too high right now to be able to make use of his
• 1:34:32
  really crazy hard hit rate. That he's got a fifty four percent ground ball
• 1:34:36
  rate, and obviously that's going to find holes because he's hitting it so hard
• 1:34:41
  and he's got the speed to get on. But I want him to get
• 1:34:45
  that barrel up rate up above ten percent. I want him to start lifting
• 1:34:48
  the ball a little bit more to be able to get into the gaps,
• 1:34:51
  to be able to get into like if he's gonna ever play in more of
• 1:34:56
  like the Julio Rodriguez roll, the Kuna Tier. That's what he's got to
• 1:34:59
  do, and so I think until he does that, people will buy him
• 1:35:03
  thinking that he can do that, and it's not going to work out until
• 1:35:09
  he makes some serviceman change. I think the interesting proposal I would make if
• 1:35:13
  I had Ellie Della Cruise and we're ignoring say salaries going to the season.
• 1:35:17
  If you're just looking up pure dynasty, had you know one to one type
• 1:35:21
  trades, go back a few episodes where we went through a mock of the
• 1:35:26
  first round Tray Turner. He has been hots lately, so this might not
• 1:35:32
  be able to last this commentary, but I could see somebody being sour on
• 1:35:38
  Trey Turner. He had a few hot weeks of the season, but he
• 1:35:41
  was dreadful the whole season and being willing to flip for Ellie Della Cruise for
• 1:35:46
  Trey Turner. Trey Turner is a three hundred hitter. He's a twenty to
• 1:35:49
  twenty five homer, forty steel guy year and year out. Yeah, he's
• 1:35:55
  lowing, he's getting a little older, but like to your point on floor,
• 1:36:00
  like Turner is still even this bad year, he's having he got a
• 1:36:04
  little hot, He's doing somethings. So I'm with you. I think that
• 1:36:09
  people are going to dream on Ellie, and I think if you play your
• 1:36:12
  cards right, you could be very happy with turn you get and look really
• 1:36:16
  smart at some point next year when he goes on like a month month and
• 1:36:19
  a half cold streak and things just have aren't figured out for him and he
• 1:36:25
  gets sent down to try things out and work things out, He's got a
• 1:36:29
  bright future. Don't get me wrong, I just don't. I think the
• 1:36:31
  hype train is leaving the station a little too fast. Yeah, And so
• 1:36:36
  other players that we had in this category I think are a little bit similar,
• 1:36:42
  but maybe he also have different traits that you can look for and apply
• 1:36:45
  to other people. One was Josh Young. For me, it's just the
• 1:36:51
  injury history and so like same sort of thing, lots of hype, really
• 1:36:56
  good player, but he almost is a little bit into like Lodolo territory.
• 1:37:00
  Two. He's already twenty five, He's had shoulder problems now it has a
• 1:37:03
  thumb problem, and so it's really risky to I think, play with his
• 1:37:10
  profile. And so that's another type of like guy that I'd be looking to
• 1:37:14
  move on from. The other one that we considered here is Christopher Morrell,
• 1:37:17
  and that is more so just like he's got the tools, and he's got
• 1:37:23
  like the bombastic tools that like look real loud and look real cool, but
• 1:37:30
  he doesn't ever play like David Ross hates him, And so I think that's
• 1:37:34
  a guy that like I'm looking to move in any league that I've got him,
• 1:37:38
  because like, as long as David Ross is in Chicago, I just
• 1:37:41
  don't see how it all works out. So that's kind of a missmash of
• 1:37:45
  different guys and kind of different situations that we are looking to use as trade
• 1:37:51
  bait and trade fodder here and offseason keeper and dynasty leagues. If you've got
• 1:37:56
  any thoughts, you can certainly reach out to us at cards Categories at email
• 1:38:00
  dot com or cards Categories on x slash Twitter. You can find me Mike
• 1:38:05
  cool Ard on Twitter as well at in cool seven. You can find me
• 1:38:10
  at razball on weekends for the rest of the regular season. We're getting to
• 1:38:15
  the end of it here, prove that. Just a couple of weeks left,
• 1:38:17
  But you can find me on razball doing waiver wiver waiver wive articles.
• 1:38:24
  That is such a mouthball to say waiver waiver wire articles on the weekends.
• 1:38:29
  So Brove, where can we find you and contact you if we need to?
• 1:38:34
  Yeah, find me over on x slash Twitter at j Brewer seventeen.
• 1:38:40
  Find me on razball on the weekends. Luckily I don't alliterate in my articles
• 1:38:45
  with the waiver wire, but find me with the top one hundred hitters hitter
• 1:38:49
  profiles of the weekend. I think we're probably done with the top one hundred
• 1:38:54
  hitters for the rest of the season. As far as content goes, there's
• 1:38:58
  not much you're gonna do in the last a few weeks of making those moves,
• 1:39:01
  So we're gonna probably finish the season out with hitter profiles on the weekend
• 1:39:05
  and then looking forward to a fun off season getting into the dirty details.
• 1:39:10
  But reach out to us on Twitter x or jump onto us with the weekend
• 1:39:15
  with rasball. Yeah, and rasball dot com has got a premium subscription going
• 1:39:20
  on right now. It's you to help you, I think, especially more
• 1:39:24
  so with fantasy football leagues. They've got lots of great content, lots of
• 1:39:27
  great projections on there. But if you still need some projections down the stretch
• 1:39:30
  for baseball, rasball dot com is the place to go with the Streaminator and
• 1:39:35
  Rudy's daily projections. They are fantastic and if you are listening to this podcast,
• 1:39:42
  we would really appreciate if you could rate, review, follow set to
• 1:39:45
  out auto download wherever you're listening. It helps us build the podcast and know
• 1:39:51
  what you guys like, So take care until next week, We'll see you
• 1:39:56
  then bye,