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Iran Update; Inflation; India; China; SpaceX IPO; Fable; Achievements | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: A lot of fundamental prints of and an individual ones.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: This is the show.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Oh right, everybody, welcome to here. One book show on
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: this Wednesday, June tenth, another edition about news shows, daily
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: news shows.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: All right, as uh as always, I guess.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Recently we are going to be talking about We're going
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: to start off our discussion about iwon Eon is in
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: the news. Of course, yesterday when we had the show
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: on the United States, was was shooting back. We're shooting
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: ed ivan with the excuse explanation of this was retaliation
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: for the dropping of the helicopter. It was positioned as
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: an act of self defense, and it bombed a number
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: of coastal straits of Homo's coast facility cities. Probably wasn't
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: just an issue of the helicopter.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I mean the Trump administration.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: Trump seems to be pretty in spite of everything he
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: says publicly.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: There seems to be significant.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Evidence to suggest that there's just a lot of frustration,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of frustration within the administration or the fact
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: that he wants just ignoring their proposal. Right.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Trump keeps saying, we've got.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: A response, We've got to respond, you know, two or
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: three days we're going to sign this deal. But the
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: reality is that that you know, Tehran is basically ghosting Trump.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: They have not responded to the latest proposal. They're ignoring
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: them completely. And yeah, I mean Trump is getting impatient. Yesterday,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: another targets were hit. The Ranians are claiming.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: That two what do you call them? Two water facilities
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: were hit in in in one.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: Of the areas in South Yran. That is basically taking
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: away water supply to twenty thousand people.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: And uh, that that was that was the Uh, that
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: was part of the mission yesterday. I find that how
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: to believe why the United States would hit water of
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: all things.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Uh, you know, the Uranians are running out.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Of water anyway, They're having problems finding water for their people.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Anyway.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: You think if you wanted to inflict pain on the
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: civilian population, you wouldn't go after water, You'd go after electricity.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: So I'm skeptical that the US actually bombed these water facilities.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: It also opens it up for.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: The Uranians to justify in their own minds attacking desalination
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: plants in some of the Gulf states, which would be horrific, Uh,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: horrific for those for those states. So you know, we'll
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: see what comes of that, if that if it turns
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: out to be true or not, if it turns out
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: to be purposeful or a mistake. Anyway, the Unians didn't
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: responded to what the United States did by bombing UH
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: the fifth the headquarters of the fifth Fleet in Bahrain,
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: and attacking US facilities in Quait, also trying to attack
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: USE facilities in Jordan, although it seems like those bomb
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: those missiles were intercepted. So we had retaliation on Bahrain,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: on Quait, on Jordan as a consequence of the US's
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: the US's response yesterday today, President Trump then said, this
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: is a quote from Trump. We hit them hard yesterday,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: and we're going to hit them hard again today, and
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: we'll see what happens with the deal. We were really
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: close to the deal. But they keep keep tapping us along.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: They keep playing us for suckers because they know what
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: because you know what they dealt to some very stupid presidents. Yeah,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: Trump being number one of them. So yes, they mean
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: even Trump has figured out that the Ranians are tapping
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: him along.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: All the rest of US figured it this out weeks ago.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: And I suppose the United States is going to hit
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: them again later today. It's not clear what that means,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: why he would tell them, why you would advertise this
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: in advance, But.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: We'll see in the mean night.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: In the meantime, the US did did disable a tank
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: in the Gulf of Omana, an Uranian, a tanker heading
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: towards Iwon. They're just able to took out the motives
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: as the tanker was trying to trying to go round
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: the US blockade. All prices climb modestly yesterday to above
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: ninety four dollars a barrow. Uh, you know, after after
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: I guess today this happened today after Trump told reporters
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: that he planned to attack Ewon again stop barkets earlier.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: We're down again, I think.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: As a consequence.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: As a consequence, yeah, I mean, the Nasik's done one
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: point six percent, the Russels down less than a percent,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: holding up oil West Texas oil, which was is the
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: cheapest form of a cheaper form of for is it
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: just above ninety It was down to eighty six. Gold
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: is down and of course bonds yielding the tenure bond
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: up to four point five four. So the markets are
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: worried about expansion of you know, a resumption of the war.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: They're worried about what will happen to gold with economy,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: they're worried about what happens to the price of oil.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: But it really does seem like.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: With all the hysteria and all the talk oil is
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: going to two hundred, one hundred and fifty, oil is
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: still in ninety four, ninety to ninety four. It seems
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: like what has happened is that in spite of the
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: problems in the Homo Straits, the as I predicted, all
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: markets are adaptable. They shifted focus. Other countries started producing
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: and exporting more. The pipelines, the Saudi popline and the
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: UE pipeline. They get around the Homo Straits went to
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: the four effect. And while yeah, there's still some supply,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: there's still supply concerns, and there's certainly supply concerns over
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: some of the other products associated with the oil, this
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: is not yet crippling the global economy. And this is
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: two months into the Homost Strait being closed. Though three
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: months all the douesday scenarios are always off because.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: What they don't get. What people don't.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: Get is the extent to which markets are flexible. People adjust,
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: people adjust their demand. The new supply comes on market
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: because prices are high, so there's a huge incentive to
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: bring on most supply. The United States has increased production
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: of oil and natural gas and an explotation of liquefied
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: natural gas significantly, so American oil companies are making it
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: doing really really well right now selling at these higher prices.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: So while all markets are hooding, and certainly we'll get
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: the inflation in a minute, but certainly prices in the
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: United States up in terms of gasoline and so on.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: This is not the kind of catastrophic.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: World ending scenario that everybody expected it to be, and
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: again predictable. This is how markets function. They find alternatives,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: they find ways around. You know, it's just like the
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: same thing happening COVID yet shortages for a short period
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: of time, and then markets solved the problem. Market solved
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: departlem and the more government intervention of the more controls,
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: the more you know, extra special stuff, the less flexible
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: markets are, the more problems you create. Now, it is
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: true that the one good thing governments do is they
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: have an emergency reserve, and those reserves of the are
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: being over time depleted because they've been released in order to.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: In order to mitigate the effects of declining supply.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: But I think I think even when those even as
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: we move forwarther into the next few weeks, I think
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: there's enough supply out there, and I think the oil
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: markets are suggesting that that this is not going to
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: be uh, you know, this is not going to be
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: a huge problem in the sense of again, in the
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: sense of two hundred dollars a ballot and stuff like that.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Markets find ways.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Something else that President said today about Iran is he
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: said that, uh, you know, here's here's his social tweet.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Last month, I directed our great US military to EVACU
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: to execute a secret vision to support oil tankers and
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: other commercial ships through the Straits of Homos.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Today, I'm pleased.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Announce that that this effort has resulted in more than
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: one hundred million ballots of oil making the way through
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: the straits and into the open market.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: More than two hundred.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: Commercial ships have safely traveled through the straits. This wildly
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: successful effort is because the United States of America controls
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: the States of Homos, not Iran.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Day military is defeated, the economy is lost. It's over
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: for Iran. Thank you for your attention on this matter.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: Now this is again completely delusional, completely delusional. Still remind
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: you you about one hundred and thirty, one hundred and
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: forty ships traversed the States of Homos every day, two
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: hundred a month. It's not impressive, not impressive. That's under
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: ten a day. It's way less than ten percent. And
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: that suddenly does not suggest that the United States of
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: America controls the States of Homos. That's just a blatant
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: Trump lie. It's just you know, complete bs. So, you know,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: Trump continues to just say ridiculous stuff. I mean, I'm
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: glad two hundred ships came out, but that's not opening
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: the States of Amos. Opening the States of Momos would
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: mean one hundred a day, not two.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Hundred a month.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: So States Tomomos are still for most intensive purposes closed,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: and the uh, you know, the president can pretend otherwise,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: but it just ain't so, it just ain't so. As
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: I said earlier, the Irenian state broadcasters are claiming that
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: US struck water facilities in the south of the country
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: and Wednesday, damaging two concrete tanks and cutting off water
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: supplies for thousands of residents. Video published by the Union
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Media showed a damaged concrete structure with collapsed roof near
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: the city of Cucka Stock in Hogo Mozgun.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Province on the coast of the States of Momos.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Again, much more likely that this was already damaged from
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: before the war.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: And they're just they're just towding this out right now.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: How to believe that the United States struck water facilities
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: in the streets of Umos.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: So anyway, we're waiting.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: There were stories earlier about a B fifty two heading
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: towards Yuan. The reality is, I do not think the
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: United States would use a B fifty two to bomb
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: you on today. B fifty twos a ut stealth. They
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: are relatively slow airplanes. They're susceptible to air defense systems. Now,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: the US did bomb SMI defense systems is well, did
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: bomb semi defense systems. I don't think they can be
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: confident that they've taken out the whole air defense system
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: of the Iranians to the point where they can fly
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: a B fifty two. That happened earlier in the war
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: when they had complete command of the skies. I don't
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: think they would do that today. But what I do
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: what I do think if they're going to bomb. They'll
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: either use F thirty five's and F fifteen's or if
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: they're going to use the strategic bomber, if they want
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: to drop some big bombs, then i'd expect them to
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: use a B two, which is stealth in which they
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: can safely, you know, safely fly over ran without too
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: many problems. Supposedly they are reposts of explosions Intoehran, but
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: there's no confirmation of what that is and what caused it,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: so hard to tell.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: But nothing nothing major yet.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: It is what is it? Night is falling? Yeah, night
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: has falling already. It's already nighttime in Tehran. So you
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if the United States was going to
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: bomb that it would happen.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: It would happen really soon.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: And I will I will keep an eye out, watching,
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: watching to see if we see anything, anything happening in
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: the minutes I was to come.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: If not, I'm sure we'll have an opportunity tomorrow to
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: update you.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: Nothing seems to be happening of an urgent nature or
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: something dramatic. I think whatever bombing happens is not a
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: full resumption of.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: War with with the Iranians.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: All right, that's all I had no one you on today.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: So let's talk about the CPI, the consumer price index
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: that came out today the US, the Bottom of Labor
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: published a monthly consumer Price Index and it showed consumer
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: prices increasing by a seasonal adjusted rate of a point
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: five percent for the month of May, which puts to
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: the United States at an annual rate of CPI inflation
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: a four point two percent four point two percent.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: So now we've had a number of numbers.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: We had the pc and now we've had the CPI,
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: both indicating price inflation at around four percent. This is
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: double the rate that the FED claims to be targeting.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: This is clearly hitting people, hitting people in the pocketbook.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: A lot of this is driven by energy prices going up,
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: so it's not maybe sustained inflation. It's more supply shock,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: so it's not you know, this is not clearly driven
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: by an increase in the money supply, although the M
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: two numbers seem to be up as well, so that
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: it does seem to be an increase in the money
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: supply as well. Core CPI, which takes out volatile food
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: and energy, still is up almost three percent. So yeah,
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: prices are going up, and indeed you know, a cost,
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: the cost of things is going up faster than wages.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: So people feeling poor is you know, based on facts
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: of reality. The government is inflating. You know how to
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: tell how much of this is just the supply shock
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: associated with energy and how much of this is sustained
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: because of an increase in the money supply.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: But generally, generally this is not good. This is not good.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: You go to the grocery store, you go buy the
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: stuff you need to live by.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: You know, the Austrians will come out.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: And say, this is not technically inflation, because you know,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: technically inflation is an increase in the money. Still like okay,
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: but it means the cost of living is going up.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: It means the purchasing power of the dollar for most
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: people in the day to day stuff that they consume
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: is going down.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: And that is frustrating people. And it's not clear what
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: can be done here.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: Now, what's interesting if you look at the patent, if
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: you look at the graph of inflation, it does really
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: look like we're tracking the nineteen seventies. Now, you know,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: history doesn't indeed repeat itself, but the spike of inflation
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: and the Biden looks like the spike in the early seventies,
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: then inflation came down, and then the seventies it went
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: way up to even.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Higher than it was early on.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: And we're now starting to go up at about the
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: same lag as it in the seventies. I'm not saying
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: we're going to get the same result, because I don't
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: think the response is being the same, but it is.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: It is interesting inflation once price inflation, once it gets
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: into the system, it's it's it's.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Very hard to eradicate, very very hard, you know, to eradicate.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Let's say, you know, the four point two percent in May,
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: it was the highest year of a year reading since
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: April twenty and twenty three. And you know, again, when
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Trump took office, price inflation CPI and PCE were lower
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: than what they are right now. So in flight, despite
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: of the fact that Trump ran on I'm going to
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: kill inflation, inflation was a Biden thing, I'm going to
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: solve it, nothing has really happened, nothing has really changed,
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: nothing is really improved quite to the country, quite to
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: the country, right, all right.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: So that's where it is.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: And I think American consumers are really American consumers, American producers,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: American citizens American people living in America are really feeling
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: it and struggling with it. And you know exactly where
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: this goes. Exactly where this goes, it's hard to tell.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: But it does not.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: It doesn't look like anything's happening to make this better.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: It's going to be interesting to see what the Federal
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: Reserve does.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: And how how the.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: Federal Reserve response to this. It doesn't respond by increasing
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: interest rates. That could be why stock markets are going down.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: Put a side on.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: It could be. But of course Trump wants the Federals
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: of to decrease interest rates.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: And now he has a chairman who he appointed, who's
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: handpicked by him, who suggested he wants to decrease.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Interest rates, so it might not be not be easy
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: to do this.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Chairman of the FED does want to decrease the size
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: of the balance sheet, which means taking money potentially out
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: of the economy. That might be good pressing inflation. So
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: it's going to be interesting how the Fed response to this.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: The federal government is almost guaranteed not to do anything
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: about it.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: It's not you know what they could do.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: It starts shrinking deficits, putting together plan to one day
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: pay off the debt, put together a plan to balance
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: a budget or go into a soap plus.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: But that's not going to happen.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: Our politicians are not forward thinking. They're not They're not
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: trying to solve problems. They're trying to play political games.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: It's all about political games, right, give me all?
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Right? The India, so it starts coming out of India.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Really interesting last I've seen a number of stories about
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: this the last few days, and that is that India,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: for the first time has now gotten to a point
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: where the number of children per woman.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Has fallen below replacement.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: So the demographic trend, the global demographic trend, which has
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: affected the West, affected Europe and affected the United States,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: and dramatically affected Asia, Southeast Asia primarily Korea and Japan
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: and China, really all of that part of Asia, is
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: now affecting India, the world's most populist country. It is
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: larger than China engines of population, and the idea was
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: it was going to continue to be for a long
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: time because its birth rates exceeded. It was going to
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: grow because they exceeded replacement. Well no, now they're not
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: exceeding replacement. India has a total fertility rate a measure
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: of children per woman of one point nine percent and falling.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: This is my story and the economist replacement, just to
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: remind us two point one uh. In several Indian states,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: the TFR total fertility rate now matches the rate you
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: find in European countries. In Tamil Nadu, an industrialized state
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: in the south, and West Bengal, a populous one in
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: the east, each have the same fertility rate one point
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: three the same as Finland. For example, Maharashtra, a big
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: western state encompassing Mumbai, is in powered Norway four. You know,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: if you think of India and wealth, and you associate
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: wealth with fertility rates and the ideas, and you get
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: rich and fertility rates go down. India is not as
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: rich as no Way or as Finland, not exactly Scandinavia,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: not Western sieve, and yet they're not having babies. Indias
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: popularity will still continue to grow from its current tally
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: at one point four five billion, because it takes time
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: for fewer birth to translate into fewer people over WAW
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: but the number of birth is already down by a
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: fifth from its peak in two thousand and one. In
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: telling that do one thy two hundred schools will closed
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: last year for lack of pupils to fill their classrooms.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: And you're seeing many, many more one child families that
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: was so rare in India in the past, so rare.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: China. Of course, their fertility eight is.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Much lower, but they started with much higher and they've
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: gone down. So you're gonna see India probably catch up.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: And again, this is a global trend. It's no longer
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: just wealthy places where family have fewer or maybe no kids.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: Over two thirds of all countries are now below replacement rate,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: including middle income ones.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Like Brazil, Iran.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure Iran is middle income right now, but anyway, Thailand, Turkey,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: Tooky in spite of the Islamism, all well below replacement.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Poor countries steadily joining the ranks.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Sri Lanka is at one point three, Tunisia one point six,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Morocco is below replacement. Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, may
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: be close to that point, even though the rest of
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: Kenya is above. But it might be that it's a
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: direction Africa is going in. I mean, indeed, Africa is
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: the only continent in which is growing which has above replacement.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: Now you know a number of reasons why this is
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: happening right, and there's a lot of there's a lot
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: of debate about this, but one falling rights to child mortality.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: Parents don't need to have as many children if they
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: know that all of them will reach adulthood. Second is
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: the education of goals. Women now have much more choice
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: and they have much more say. In traditional cultures, women
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: were just they did what they were told. You know,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: I was watching some documentary about yeah, I think it
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: was about arts and about a portrait from the Renaissance,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: and it was a woman and of a relatively wealthy,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: wealthy family, and she had been Her portrait was made
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: just after she had given birth to a sixth child,
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: and she died a few.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Years later giving birth to twelfth child.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: And that was pretty standard practices back then. Women now
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: have choices, not just birth control, but also just the
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: voice no. Women can say no, they have careers, they
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: don't have to marry. Girls have more autonomy, the greatest
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: say in life's decisions. They they marry later because they
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: want to get educated. So since the nineteen nineties, both
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: India and much of Africa have seen a huge increase
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: in goals attending schools. Indeed, I think that the kind
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: of people like Walsh and you know, the kind of
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: trad wife conservatives. I mean, I think they would be
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: quite happy with banning goes from school.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, they would never admit it.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: But if it turns out that banning goals from schools
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: will increase the birth rate, they'll go for they'll go
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: for it. It's only in a few places in Africa
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: where goals still don't have any formal education, like Niger,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: know then Nigeria or Chad, and their fertility is hardly budged.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: So the more traditional society is, the few rights women have,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: the less educated women are those places futility still hide.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: The more parents are aspirational, the more they need to
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: invest in each child, aspirational for their children. And you know,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: thirty nine I don't know if you know this, but
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: thirty nine percent of Indian children go to fee paying schools.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: In other words, they go to private schools. And that's increasing.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: That's from thirty two twenty fifteen. Now that doesn't mean
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: the fancy, expansive schools. No, in the slums of India
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: you have lots of private schools. Parents need to have
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: money to send them to private schools. So you know,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: good for the Indians for having thirty nine percent of
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: their kids go to private schools.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I wish it was one hundred. So these are the
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: kind of factors that play now.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: There are other There's a big debate going on right
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: now online about cell phones. There's a seased to be
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: a high correlation between the introduction of smartphones and they
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: collapse of fertility. People spend their time on the phone
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: watching porn, I guess, rather than engaging in relationships. We
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: also know that sex is down, drinking stf partying down,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: socializing down, having friends is down. Whether it's related to
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: iPhones or to smartphones or not, we'll leave that to
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: another show. But you know it's fertility is affected by
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of different factors. One study showed how arrival
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: of cable television in Indian villages in the two thousands
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: led to a moderate fall in fertility. Soap opera is
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: depicting urban, middle class women with small families may.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Have changed norms.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: Other people suggest that maybe people are watching TV instead
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: of having sex. Also possibility, I guess. And of course,
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: you know, the smartphone is something that is fading to
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: everybody on the planet and is distracting people from maybe
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: from having sex and beinging up a family.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Why do that when you can watch another TikTok video.
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: But whatever the cause is, and there are probably lots
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: of causes in the West, I think a big cause
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: is pessimism. Uh you know, uh, wipe being into white
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: bring children into the world. If the world is going
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: to end tomorrow, white being children into the world, if
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: climate change is going to destroy so why bring children
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: into the world if we're all gonna you know, if
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: almageddon it's just around the corner.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: Uh, anyway, Uh, even India, even India is seeing a
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: dramatic decline in booth three in India is a poor country,
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: right GDP per capita. Uh if you compare purchasing pop
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: party is in India's less than half of that in Malaysia,
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: Mexico and Turkey. So we will see, we will see
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: how that develops. I mean, it's a global phenomena. The
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: population of the earth is going to start shrinking soon,
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: and in some places the shrinkage will happen very very quickly.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: Countries like South Korea, China, Japan risk a shrinkage of
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: over fifty percent in their population. Now what exactly. That
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: means how that plays out. Maybe maybe that plus AI
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: and robots don't really make any difference. Maybe it doesn't
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: really make any that much difference. It's gonna be interesting
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: to watch what actually happens as countries start shrinking in
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: population size. Japan is already shrinking significantly, But when that accelerates,
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: what is actually going to happen to the economies, to
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: people's lifestyles, to.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: The way they live?
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: All right, China? You know when Trump goes to China
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: and she really in a sense looks down on him,
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: and China looks assertive and strong compared to a week
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: a week Trump and generally China projects out into the
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: external world a certain sense of invincibility, of strength, of efficaciousness,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: of power. They know what they're doing, as compared to
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: the bubbling idiots that run most Western countries. But if
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: you think a little deeper, and if you actually look
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: at China from the perspective of China, China's in real trouble.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: We've talked about this over and over again in terms
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: of in terms of the economy, but the reality is
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: the politically China is in trouble. I mean a confident,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: a confident leader, a confident government does not engage in constant,
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: never ending purgase.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: She reminds me.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: A lot more of Stalin in this regard and Stalin's
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: insecurities than he does.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: A successful political leader.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, China got rid of most of
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: its general most of its very senior generals last year.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: It's been purging political opponents of She for the last decade, NonStop,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: all the time, and most recently, Chinese She has been
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: purging the network that the number one enforcer of she,
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: his trusted, most trusted person, guy who was nicknamed who
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: was nicknamed tiger hunter because he was hunting tigers. Tigers
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: are higher level of people in the Communist Party or
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: in the military to be hunted, to be purged. The
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: guy who was responsible for those purging his whole network
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: has not been purged.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Last week, the last of one She Shun, One She Shun.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Is this that you know? The hunter of tigers?
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: One She Shun, the last of Wang's five top lieutenants
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: dubbed the five Tiger Generals, was hauled away for investigation
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: by the very apparatus that he and Wang built. Wong
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: himself stepped down a state vice president three years ago
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: has been spared so far, but according to wall Steed Journal,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: the demise of his inner circle reflects a much broader pattern.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: More than a decade into she's ruled, hardly a week
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: passes now without Beijing disciplinary apparatus claiming another senior official,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: military commanders, civilian bureaucrats, retired provincial party bosses and purging them.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: The purchase keep accelerating, reaching further into the past and
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: sweeping up people who long ago relinquished any meaningful power,
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: all under the banner of anti corruption.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: So you know, this is basically she's insecurity.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: She needs to constantly be purging people in order to
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: feel secure in his own position, right, I mean this
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: guy weighing. He and she date back when both were
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: sent down as teenagers to a remote village during the
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: Cultural Revolution. Wang he made himself into an economic technocrat
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: as China opened up, and then she tapped him as
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: disciplinary chief in twenty twelve.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: And over the years.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: Whang also she's into culture with US businesses through what
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: he called old friends sessions. During one Wang quizt a
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: visiting US private equity investor about Trump. And you know,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: so Wang was pretty significant in the she administration. But
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: you know, into solitarian systems, you know, everybody is dispensable.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Everybody is dispensable, and you know, retired people, common people.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: He's building a wall around him, and this cannot be
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: a positive sign. I mean he feels insecure. Things not
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: going well domestically. Consumption is dramatically down, stand up living
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: is possibly down. Chinese, you know, are not feeling secure economically.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: The middle class is not growing as fast as it
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: used to.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Act.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: She is seventy two. He's been moving for a fourth term.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: They used to be limited to two. He's already on
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: limited to fourth, which will be he would be appointed
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: to in the twenty first Party Congress, expected in late
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty seven. And you know, he, like every authoritarian
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: who lives in fear and anxiety. He's setting in the
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: States for that by getting rid of anybody who he
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: might think might at some point consider.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: Challenging him. So even people who don't have a shot,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: the paranoia.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Of dictators, paranoia of dictators. All right, I mean the
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: rest of the stories I have today are positive stories.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: Basically SpaceX. SpaceX is going to go public on Friday.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: It's going to sell shares to the public for the
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: first time, which over the next year or so will
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: give an opportunity for early investors and for management to
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: be able to sell shares in the open market. Elon
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: Musk is likely to end Friday the first billionaire in
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: American history, the richest man in the world by far.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Now the valuation given to SpaceX is so they're selling
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: shares pre open.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: They're raising capital.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: At a valuation on one point seven trillion dollars, it's expected.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: And on the first day the market.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: Right now, the expectation is that the company will trade
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: it around two trillion dollars at least early in the morning,
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: maybe much higher than that later on.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Earlier in May or earlier.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: In late May, it was expected it would trade at
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: two point three trillion. Now it's a true primarily because
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: tech stocks have all taken a hit in the last
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: few days. But you know, they're going to raise about
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: sixty five or seventy five billion dollars. Again, this will
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: be the largest i PO in history, making alone Musk
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: the richest man in history. Adjusted for inflation, he'll be
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: by far the richest man in history. You know, I
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: find it difficult to evaluate the prospectus of SpaceX and
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: to evaluate its its actual profit prospects. Much of that
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: is tied with its adventures into ai UH and the
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: expansions of starlink and whether you know it can make
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: a profit. He continues to make a profit or make
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: a profit one day building helping building a space station
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: in in on UH.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: On the Moon for NASA, and on Mars.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: But it is going to be on a any kind
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: of measure of value, it'll probably be the most expensive
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: i PO in terms of value per revenue, value pro
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: prospective revenue, be the most expensive IPO in history, most
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: expensive IPO in history.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: And you know what it's actually worth. I do not know.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: I haven't run the numbers what I think it would
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: actually be worth. It's highly speculative because the risk in
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: terms of the potential outcome in the future.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Is the.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Range of potential outcomes in the future is very large
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: and very uncertain, and then for whatever the price is,
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: it's highly uncertain. This is one of the reasons of
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: skeptical about one point seven trillion dollar valuation. I'll suggest
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: to you that many IPOs don't ultimately do well. So
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: some IPOs do phenomenally well, palent here a year. A
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: year after the ipo traded up one hundred and fifty
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: two percent. ABNB Post ipo traded up twenty five percent.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: This is up from the ship price at opening. Tesla
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: traded up first year eighteen percent. On the other hand,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: Uber traded down twenty one percent. Meta Facebook traded down
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: thirty one percent. And the Facebook IPO is a very
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: very highly anticipated ipo. So no matter what happens on Friday,
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: where the stock will be a year later is very
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: hard to evaluate, very hard to evaluate, right, So beware.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of excitement. I know people
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: are thrilled.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: I know people are super motivated to go and buy,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: but it's very tricky.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: It's very difficult to predict, and there's a lot of risks.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Just to give you some even bigger like moves, right, Uh.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Let's see.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: Robin Hood was down ninety percent a year later, Rivian
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: the electrico MAKA down eighty eight percent. A year later,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Lift seventy nine coinbase fifty seven percent, So.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: You know the median max drawdown.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: Well, those who are a max dow down, so those
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: are the maxim and went down during the first year.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: The median max dow drown is.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: Fifty four percent, which suggests that most IPO stocks go
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: down ultimately. So a lot of hype, not a lot
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: of stocks trading Initially. Early investors want to sell because they.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Made a lot of money.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: There were a lot of billionaires out there in SpaceX.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: They're going to want to get out and get a
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: little bit of diversification. Remember this principle. A great company
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: isn't always a great investment. A great company isn't always
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: a great IPO. It depends on the price.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: Now, it doesn't mean the years and years from now.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: It won't be right saying.
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: It can be very volatile in that first year, and
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: particularly right now with the hype and the meme stocks
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: and the craziness around it, I'd be wary.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Supposedly they have, you know, they have a.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: Certain amount of stock that they want to sell on
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: day one, you know.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: To people before it goes public.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: Supposedly there's four x amount of interest even at this
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: one point seven trillion dollar price valuation. Then the number
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: of stock available, so a lot of people want to
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: buy the stock, and in the first few days you
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: might see the stock go up.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, for all I.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Know Tesla will be trading at five trillion dollars, not
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: Tesla SpaceX. By the way, one of the stories I
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: read was that one of the ideas is that alone
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: Musk will use the SpaceX stock to buy Tesla and
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: to integrate Tesla into SpaceX. Tesla revenues are down, Tesla's
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: not doing that great, but you know, it'll be a
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: way to cash out investors out of Tesla and give
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: them a more appreciated stock in SpaceX. But it also
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: dilutes what the SpaceX investors are buying into.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Anyway, it's gonna be interesting.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: We're gonna watch I'm gonna watch this.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: This is big in finance.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: Uh. And how long it takes to justify this valuation.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: It might never, it might take ten years, it might
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: take twenty I don't know.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: But the valuation seems rich to me right now, very
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: very very rich. All right.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: Fable Topic and Topic has released its latest greatest AI
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: called Claude Fable five.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: This is a AI.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: Based on Mythos. We've talked about Mythos before.
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: Mythos is this AI that can very quickly identify flaws
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: in software, find you know, find gaps in the software
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: and easily hack into them. Myth Us as a consequence,
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: has been deemed too potent. Think about this too potent
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: a hacking tool for public release. So for now at least,
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: and Topic is not releasing Mythos, it's releasing its selective
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: dates to selective companies and individuals to use in finding
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: problems in software and fixing them and making sure doesn't
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: fall into hackers' hands. So what they've done is they
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: have released Fable five, which is a constrained version. For example,
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: if you ask Fable about hacking, Fable will downgrade you
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: to opis four point eight and not give you the
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Mythos capabilities. If you ask Fable about bioweapons, Fable will
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: downgrade you to opens four point eight and not give
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: you the information. So you know, this is a good
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: example of the industry being responsible and thinking about the
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: danger of releasing.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: The cutting edge model and adjusting for that.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: Now, just give you a sense of a According to
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: benchmark testing, right Fable outperforms every other publicly available AI system.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: It goes roughly five percent higher overall than claude Opus
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: four point eight. Five percent doesn't seem much, but it's
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: a lot. Right Fable quote represents a very real leap
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: over every model, every model out there, and you know
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: it's this is moving fast. AI is moving fast. According
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: to anthropic quote, fable five is state of the art
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: on nearly all testing benchmarks, with exceptional performance and software engineering,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: knowledge work, scientific research, and vision. The longer and more
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: complex the task, the larger Fable five's lead over our
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: other models.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: Now it's expensive.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: Tokens are going to be expensive, and indeed, I think
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: you're going to see more and more of these systems
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: moving not to charging you on a monthly basis, as
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: some of them do right now, but to charging you
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: on use, i e.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Charging the base of token.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Use. Token is a measure of the energy used I
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: think in solving problems, in providing you with an answer.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: So it's more expensive, but of course that's why we're building.
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: That's why these companies are building these massive data centers
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: to lower the cost, to make it easier.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: AI now is being used to help build the name
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: next AI version, So AI is accelerating the improvements in AI.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: I says token is part of a word. I'm not
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: sure what that means.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Anyway, This is a This is a big deal in
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: terms of the advanced with CVII and how quickly we're
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: going to get advanced models, and of course as they build,
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: as they build more data centers, we're going to get
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: more and more powerful models, and we're going to get
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: through cheaper and cheaper. H Ian says, Uh, it's a
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: piece of text equivalent, so you're paying poor number of
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: cas you get basically, so it's more expensive because it
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: uses more energy in order to produce the results. Yeah,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: all right, I think, I still think and I'll have
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: more to say, much more to say about this in
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: the future.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: AI is uh the breakthrough technology of our time.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: It is going to have just massive ramification on our lives,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: mostly in positive ways. Are not all positive, because AI
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: also makes it possible for the state to engage in
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: surveillance much easier than it does today.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: It is a potent weapon in.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: The hands of the bad guys, so there are a
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: lot of bad things.
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: That can happen for me.
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: But overall, this is going to advance civilization advanced human
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: beings dramatically forward. I'm super excited about what's going to
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: happen in the next few months years with AI and
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: how it's going to affect our lives. I think it's
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: going to happen fast in spite of the fact that
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: while AI is getting better and better, using it is
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: where the bottleneck is, right, people figuring out how to
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: use it, people figuring out on what to use it.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: So actual use hasn't yet caught up and hasn't yet
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: basically manifested in increased productivity, but it will. Like productivity
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: only started to increase as a result of the computer
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: revolution in the mid ninety nineties, the revolution that started
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: in the late seventies early eighties didn't really get reflected
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: in productivity numbers until the nineties. I think this will
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: happen much faster, but they're still a lag and the
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: productivity benefits of AI are really stunning, and you know,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: once it really kicks in, it's going to be it
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: really is going to be a different world that we're
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: living in and with different capabilities. All right, So I
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: PO and and this we're definitely we're definitely.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: Positive stories.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: SpaceX raising capital, new AI models that are even better
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: and who knows where.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: This is all going to take us some more. All
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: good news treat us based on the same MRI and
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: a technology that delivered COVID nineteen vaccines are showing lasting
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: benefits against the deadly skin cancer melanoma. An early promise
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: in pantriotic and brain cancers, once considered impervious to immune
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: system is sold. So these all methods.
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: The vaccine is a method to get the immune system
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: to attack the cancer. The parentbact breakthrough in cancer vaccines
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: arriving even as US officials send conflicting signals about the technologies,
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: merits and safety.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Remember this is from Waida's story.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: More than one hundred and thirty studies were presented at
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: the American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting in Chicago I
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: think earlier this month. All focused on the use of
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: mr and E vaccines to fight cancer.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Madonna and mook.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: A combining powerful immunotherapy drugs with an experimental made to
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: order mRNA cancer vaccine. This, in the case of melanoma,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: has kept the cancer at bait for five years, a
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: milestone in efforts to create personal life vaccines to train
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: the immune system to fight cancer. The companies are testing
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: mRNA based therapies in nine large and mid sized trials
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: in lung, kidney, bladd and pancreatic cancers. I mean again,
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: the fight over cancer is one of the most positive things.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Happening right now in the world.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, there is a good chance that we figure
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: out how to cure many of these cancers over the
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: over the next decade. And I know promises like this
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: have been made before, but this time it seems to
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: be happening right. This is an interesting story. Longevity scientist
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: David Sinclair, who I am skeptical about, but anyway, he's
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: been predicting the one day you'll go to the doctor
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: and get a prescription that will make you ten years younger.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: MIT Technology Review has just published an article.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: That says that he has plans.
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: To launch human tests of an r reprogramming drug as
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: part of a one hundred and one million dollar prize
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: you know competition with one hundred and one million dollar
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: prize that is organized by the X Prize Foundation. Foundation
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: is offering cash awards to teams able to restore a
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: person to an earlier apparent age as measured by improvements
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: in immune, cognitive, and muscle function. The grand prize goes
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: to any team able to show a ten year or
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: greater relative improvement after one year of treatment.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: You Know.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: Sinclair has confirmed that he plans to give an allo
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: drug mixture to volunteers in a bid to seek evidence age.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: Restoration in humans.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: There's a major story the MIT Technology Review about this,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: and uh.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: You know it's it's very early.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: But again, this is some of the stuff this is
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: happening in the field that is incredibly exciting. That might work,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: am I not work? But we won't know until we try.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: We won't know until experiment. We won't know until we
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: put these things in action and test them. And people
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: are actually taking life extensions seriously and actually proposing drug
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: treatments and and gene therapy to actually extend life. Now
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: here's here's what one of David Sinclair's companies are called
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: Life's Bioscientists. This is what they've what they've just done,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: you know, in this in in relationship to this right,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: it's called cellular rejuvenation therapy. Right, they've received FDA clearance
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: the anti human clinical trials and to test.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Whether you can emoluate a human disease.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: With this technology, so change the function of the cell
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: and in a sense make it younger. And by making
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: it younger, you know, reverse sale aging and restore functionality.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: So it's developing and applications for its technology to tackle
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: a host of age related diseases in a variety of organs,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: like fatty liver disease.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: UH.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: They argue this according to their pessial This according to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: David Clay, a researcher, suggested that a gene is driven
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: in large part by loss of epigenetic information, not irreversible damage.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: This clinical study represents the first opportunity to test whether
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: it's storing that information can emoluate human disease. So, assuming
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: we're looking at eyes to begin, and they're already testing
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: this in an eye, and again I'm you know, this
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: would be this would mean a successful success in basically
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: eliminating cataract and eliminating surgeries every year for cataract because
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: the cell would basically.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: Reverse the damage. Now, supposedly.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: They've already started with this, right, They've already started, So
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: let me see where this is. They're rejecting a drug
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: that will reboot cells back into the version of the
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: self when it was young, right, and they're going to
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: start with eyes. And they've already done this with you know,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: they've restored vision of old mice, then they've restored vision
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: in monkeys with optic nerve damage, and now they're testing
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: it on people people who are going blind from glacoma
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: and a nerve condition called neon.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: I suppose he is a great place to test because.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: You injected into one eye without it reaching the rest
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: of the body.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: It's contained in the eye.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: The cells they don't heal on their own, so any
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: improvement clearly came from the drug. And it can measure
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: vision right down to the letters on a chart, so
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: it's easy to test whether it was successful or not.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: So I mean super exciting that they're now taking cells
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: that are not functioning and trying to reverse. They're aging,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: reverse them, remind them of how they functioned when they
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: were young. Sounds weird, but this is what's happening, all right.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: Final story, This relates to AI and teenagers.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: There is a there is a.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: Bill going through the Senate, sponsored by Josh Harley, of course,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: that would have a g verification require a gorification. It's
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: called the A Gorification Responsible Dialogue Act. The bill would
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: require every American to verify the age before using a
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: generature AI chat box and would bar anyone under eighteen
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: from using a comp handy in check box at all.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Now, this is the assumption that.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: You know, there's some stories that suggest that teens committed
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: suicide because of advice they got from chatgipt.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: That's a story anyway, But.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Is that true and is it the case that you know,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: the effect is alone negative? The reality is that thousands
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: of teenagers use these chest boxes and there is evolving
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: evidence as suggest that the check boxes actually might help
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: mental illness of teenagers, that they might be providing decent advice.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: And you know that by.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: Borrowing eighteen year olds from using chat boxes, you know
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: they won't be able to benefit from the upside.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: Now we know, you know, a bit like this.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: Is a restriction on freedom under the assumption of some
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: a muphous evil negative, but the negative is believed basically
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: on the basis of bad faith. Well, the cases are real.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: We don't know if they're the exception. We don't know
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: how small it is, We don't know how many times
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: the chat boss has saved somebody's life. And there was
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: now a growing movement, you know, to oppose this, which
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: is the good news.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: And there is you know, there was.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: Research being done ever since being accumulated to support the
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: positive effects, positive effects of AI chat boxes on mental health.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: I mean again, my experience with AI is being all positive.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm blown away by its capabilities and it's
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: and what it can do and how well it can
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: do it. So I'm all in on AI. All right, guys,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: that is the news. So this Wednesday, June tenth, thanks
• 1:07:33
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• 1:07:40
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• 1:07:43
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• 1:07:45
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• 1:08:02
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• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: Just checking the news taking to see if anythready is happening. Yeah,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: I mean no direct reports of anything. Really, the same
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: same stories being recycled.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we will see, we will see. I mean it
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: would be great.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: The reality is the what Iran, who he is right now,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: is all out war to a place. Regime diplomacy has failed,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: unsurprising as I predicted. Now it's time to get the
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: job done, all right, Molten Splendor fifty dollars question.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Malton Splendor.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: I know this is just speculation, but how do you
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: think Nikki Haley would have handled the one you want?
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's really hard to tell, but you know
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: I'm going to take care of it, would which is
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: hard to do with partitions. I think Nikailey would have
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: been even more supportive of Israel than Trump has been,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: less likely to negotiate a crazy cease fire with Hamas
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: and tie Israeli hands in Gaza, and more likely to
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: instruct the US military to finish the job. In your on, certainly,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: I don't think you would have got to cease fire
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: and the ongoing negotiations. I think nik Hale's US are smart,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: you know, in comparison to who we have in the
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: White House right now. So she would have as the
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: military did realize the issue right that is involved in
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: closing the straits of home Wares, anticipated it, anticipated it
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: and plan for it and plan for reopening it immediately.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I think she would have done
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: much much better, much much better. I think there will
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: be over by now and we would have won and
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: there would be regime change anyone.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: But you never know.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: Because once they get into power, do they live up
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: to the tough talk.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: Usually not so to some extent. It's how to tell.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: All right, let's see. I'm just keeping an eye out
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: on X to see if there's news.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: All right, Michael, Do mixed economies not typically collapse because
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: most people in a post enlightenment world don't take the
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: altruism seriously enough to take over every aspect of life. Yeah,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: I think that's right. I think most people are just
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: not consistently altruistic. They don't do it consistently, and they're
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: willing to ufload some of that to the welfare state
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: and to the regulatory state, but not too much. And
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: you know, they're willing to ufload it.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: And thus.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: Thus they want to keep the golden goose laying the
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: golden eggs, or the goose laying the golden eggs. So
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: they're willing to do it up to a point, but
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: not beyond that point. And in a mixed economy, there's
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: just enough freedom so the economy doesn't collapse, the culture
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: of the civilization doesn't collapse. Now, I'm not sure that
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: is sustainable over time, but at least for a while,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: it seems like that is possible, and that is indeed
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: what happened. Yes, all right, Remo, I have just sent
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: you an email with a question because I need to.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: Use some more letters.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: All right, let's see if I can bring up my
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: email and see if it's arrived.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: There is email emails behind, so it needs to update.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: All right, Where its Remo Remo's email? I don't see it. Remo,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: did you send it to youran at your on bookshow
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: dot com? You're on at your on bookshow dot com.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: Remos to send some money for the human achievements section.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: Thank you, he says, additional money for the email question
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: I just sent you. I don't see it. Usually your
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: emails come through. Last email I AfD from you is
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: five twenty. It's a few weeks ago. Nothing today, checking again?
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: All right, uh check check your email, make sure it
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: went out. And then Remo says answer more for that question.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: Because super Chad does not allow me to give sixty
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: dollars today in one time.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: Weird at euros, not.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: Sixty dollars euros, so better than sixty dollars.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: Why don't I see it? Why don't I see it?
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: Why don't I see it? Yeah, let me check my
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: junk folder. Quickly, Oh there it is. What is it
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: doing in junk? God?
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: All right, now I have it somewhere.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: Where did it go? God?
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: What did I just do with it? Sorry, guys, give
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: me a give me a minute here.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: I moved it to the right folder and it didn't transfer. Email.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: Just send me the email again.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: Send me the email again, unless I copied it paste
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: it into the wrong place.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: Let's just check quickly. I don't know what I just did.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: Then, Yeah, okay, let's go with Van Hopper. Two ideas
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: for the Human Achievements segment. One, do half at the
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: start of the show, half before super Chat segment to
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: a weekly super chat video of all a weekly super
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: cut video of all the human achievement segments. Great segments,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: by the way, Thank you, ed Hapa. I'll talk to
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: Christian about doing that and maybe I'll do them at
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: the beginning of the show as well. And m does
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: Oconn discourage religious students who applying or do they not
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: ask about their religious views? I don't think they ask
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: about religious views. I don't think they ask Remo, send
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: it again. I had it in spam, but then I
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: moved it to the regular and it disappeared, so if
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: you send it again, it'll either go to spam.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know where to disappear to wait. All right,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: Flood and Nick.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: Today it's twenty for the University of Mike Menza's passing.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: I'm very thankful for him producing mesign RAND. Yeah, Mike
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: Mensa introduced a lot of people dying Rand and suddenly
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: thankful for that. So that is you know, it's sad
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: that he passed away. I think I spoke to him
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: a few weeks before he passed away, my only time
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: I ever talked to him.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: So tragic. Tragic.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: Harrison, why is this all the only Western country with
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: a good fertility rate? I suspect it's a psychological issue
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: at work and has almost nothing to do with dollars. Yes,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think it has anything to do with dollars.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: I think it has to do I've this has been
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: my opinion in the past. It has to do with
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: a certain level of optimism about the future. It has
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: to do with is real Israel's success over the last
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: few decades, both economic and security wise, so people are
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: more comfortable having kids. I think Israelis just have this
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: positive view of life and the future and where they're heading. Now,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: we'll see if October seventh changes that. Now, if you
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: look at only the top line number for fertility of Israel,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: some of that is driven by by religiosity, right, the
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: very religious people have lots of.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: Lots of babies and that drives the number.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: But even secular Jews are just above replacement, around replacement,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: and circularly Israelis. We will see if that holds up
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: post October seventh. But I think it has to do
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: with a general positive attitude towards life. All right, here
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: is Remo's question, why is it not opening up?
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: What the hell? Right there?
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: It is? All right, you suggested last week we gotting
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: nuclear other catastrophic potential ventures to make shareholders personally liable.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: That seems to be a real infringement of capitalism. On capitalism,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: banning the limited liability structure of the government determined determining
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: what venture has catastrophic potential. There is a high chance
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: they would then also say defense companies, airlines, AI companies
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: a slippy slope if you ask me and emoll, well,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: it depends, right. So uh, here's what I think would
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: happen even today if shareholdersn't a corporate structure get sued
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: by a third party, and the shareholder is deemed to
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: have had an impact on the decision that caused whatever
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: event it was that the cause of the lawsuit, then
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: the courts will pierce the corporate veil, and justifiably so
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: limited liability in a free market relates to truly free
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: market would relate to contracts. So in a contract, I
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: can put bondholders cannot pierce the corporate veil, cannot access
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: the assets of shareholders. That's a voluntary contractual relationship. But
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: there's no voluntary contractual relationship between me and I don't
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: know the people in the neighborhood in which I am
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: spewing pollution. And you know, if shareholders are somehow involved
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: in the decision to continue to spew the pollution in
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: spite of knowing the harm it will take, maybe they
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: are liable. I think a court today would find them liable.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: See here's the thing about a nuclear reactor. You know,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: my main argument is that the way you achieve safety
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: in something like a nuclear reactor is having insurance, and
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: then the insurance company becomes the regulator. It basically has
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: this massive financial incentive to make sure that the nuclear
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: reactor is safe, because otherwise it will be liable.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: But let's say a.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: Company doesn't take out insurance. I think that is a
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: case of such extreme negligence visa V and nuclear power
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: plants and maybe some other types of industries where they
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: don't have insurance that you could say shareholders should have
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: done something about that and stopped it. And they find
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: piercing the corporate veil. So I don't think it's an
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: automatic you know, uh, limited liability, limited liability visa v.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: Third parties, non contectual third parties, we are doing away
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: with it.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: That's not the point.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: The point is in cases where there is extreme negligence,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: like not taking out insurance, the corporate veil can be
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: pierced and shareholders can be made liable if there's insurance.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: Adequate insurance not an issue. Right.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: So again, these are kind of corporate law issues that
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: are fairly complex because the holy sure of limited liability
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: really is a complex issue. There is no such thing
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: as a blanket corporate liability.
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: Limited liability.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: In a free market, again without coming intervention. This is
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: my case about corporations not being creatures, creatures of the state.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: It's not the state that creates limited liability. It's contracts
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: to create limited liability, and it's culpability that.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Creates limited liability.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: Shareholders are not culpable for things that they don't have
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: decision making authority over, but in a nuclear poplant, buying
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: insurance might be something that they could be held culpable for.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: Hopefully that answers the question. Remo all right, Molten Splendor
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: another fifty dollars. Thank you, Wilton Splendor. Thank you for
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: all the hard work researching the news, digesting it and
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: giving us correct information. You are the best value for value.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: Really appreciate that.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: And sometimes I make mistakes, but I do try to
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: correct them. Yesterday I think I complete did the story
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: of the Nowak decision in the UK, because I think
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: I did a not as good of a job.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: A few days earlier in describing it.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: Christian, what is your opinion on the case of the
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: Somali refugees not being allowed into the United States for
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: the World Cup referee?
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: Now, I mean it's horrible. I mean, what do you
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: think my opinion is?
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: I haven't seen that, but it's ridiculous, right, I mean
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: he's coming in on a visa to do the work
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: that he's assigned to work, and then he leaves.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: What is the problem exactly? So, I think it's really horrific.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: Our total immigration policy, a whole stance visa the immigration,
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: the whole positioning we take about immigration.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: The capriciousness in which this administration.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: Decides who should get a v and who doesn't get
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: a viason for what reason it's on.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: Is absurd and ridiculous.
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: Molten Splendor, I am really enjoying the human achievement segments.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, molten Splender. I really really appreciate
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: all of your support. Jason.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: What should the belfair? What about the Belfast attack? Given
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: that Sudanese majority in Bread? Does that surprise you? I
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: don't think this has anything to do with Inbread. I
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: think this has to do with, you know, I don't know,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: with somebody who's mentally ill. Maybe that's partially a consequence
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: of the inbreading, but probably not. There are crazy people
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: of in non inbred families. It could also be cultural. Sudanese.
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: Sudan has a really really bad culture, and you know,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: this guy could be an Islamist nutcase or could be
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: a crazy, a crazy mentally ill person. The in bed
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: stuff could be relevant, it might not be relevant. I
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: don't know, and I don't know where you get majority inbred.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: The sudan is A has a large population of the
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: Sudanese majority in bread. What about the South Sudanese or
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: I mean the Sudanese generally majority in bread? Really is
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: that true? Do you have the stats for that? Should
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: we ask chapt if the Sudanese majority in bread? I'm
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: pretty sure the answer to that is no. And I'm
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: convinced one hundred percent that you have no clue what
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: you're talking about.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: So, I mean, you can consider what is in bed count.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: The second doesn't count first cousin maybe sister brother, surely,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: but what does it count? How do you measure it?
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: But there's zero, zero evidence as far as I know
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: that the Sudanese people are majority in bread. You know what,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: just for fun, I mean, che chapt I hate me
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: after this, but let's as chachip tea. I mean, I
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: know you think chechip t is probably politicly correct.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: Is there any basis for the claim that Sudanese a
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: majority in bread?
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: It's thinking, by the way, if you misbread in bread,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: in bread, bread has nothing to do with it.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: Be our e a d. I mean, we don't eat that.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: So you meant in bread beat r ed.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: This is uh rates of cousin uh marriages and genetic risks.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: Right, so then as a high rate of.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: You know, uh consinorous marriage whatever that world is marriage
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: between blood relatives, often first and second cousins. But there
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: is not good basis for the claim that they are
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: majority in bread. So you know, but a significant number,
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: I'll give him that. It's a significant number. It's not
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: a it's not a it's it's it's not a small
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: number in Sudan. And this is through most tribal societies,
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: most tribal societies. There's a lot of inbreeding. Unfortunately, a
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: lot of cousin marriages in in uh tribal groups that
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: did not have, you know, the culture of Suddan and
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: don't generate that kind of people. So a lot of
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: a lot of tribal cultures you see inbredding that you
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: don't get the kind of behavior that this guy exhibited
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: in Belfast. All right, Robert, I'll read it, oh reading
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: and Dagnes have a fantastic track record of outpacing the
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: Paris sites. It will be almost tragic if AI maintains
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: the trend, and as a result, most people will never
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: see what altruism collectivism is costing us.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not you understand the comment. So you're saying.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: We'll be saved from Albagheddon, and that's too bad because
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: then people will never see how bad it bad things
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: can get.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: I'd rather avoid almageddon. I think you were too, so
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: I think you were kidding, right, But parasites somewhere parasites. Yeah, well,
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: I'm okay with it. I'm okay with them not seeing
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: it all right, Harrison? Couldn't mega engineering projects such as
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: terraforming planets or rearranging solar systems be done by conventional corporations?
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: Is there some theoretical limit to help big or complex
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: a company can get while being productive. No, I don't
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: think there is, and if there is, it keeps growing
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: as the economy grows, as productivity grows. I mean, think
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: about big corporations are today much bigger than they were
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: one hundred years ago, and yet they're efficient.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: Look at Apple, look at Google.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: But also you can imagine the projects like that would
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: be organized by groups of corporation. Why have one corporation,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: why not corporations teaming up together. Imagine there's no antitrust
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: teaming up together to take different aspect of a particular
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: project and doing it.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: So I don't see any limit on that happening.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: They might be a limitre size of corporation in terms
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: of managing it well, but again the projects can always
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: be done collaboratively. Look it that big Yeah anyway, Jennifer
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: mark Twain said, quote the man with a new idea
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: is always a crank until the idea works.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: Yep, thank you, Jennifer Olie.
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: Yesterday you quote there is no such thing as public ownership. Uh,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: he says, give me some leeway in the wooding. How
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: do you respond to those who cite Nordic Southern Wealth
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: funds a successful collective ownership?
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: I mean what a successful mean.
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: Have a big fund and a lot of money because
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: they stole it from the all companies who are developing
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: the oil in the North Sea. So yeah, you can
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: be a thief in a sense and steal money that's
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: not yours, and the state can do that. I mean, look,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: collective ownership, what about all the tax revenue the government
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: brings in a year. Is that collectively owned. Is that
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: collective ownership of money. There is no such thing as
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: collective public ownership. There's no such thing as collective ownership.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: I don't care if it's successful a failure. You know,
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: taxes are a very successful policy if you measure the
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: policy by the amount of money you raise. But in
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: terms of human life, it is not successful because it
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: is a policy a force of cosion, and as a
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: policy a force of cosion, it.
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: Is anti ethical to human life.
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: And yeah, no way can be doing okay, But his
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: life in no way great. Are people in no way
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: super excited about being alive and filled that the prospects
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: of what tomorrow will bring. No, And part of that
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: is because they live in a culture of quote public ownership,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: a culture of altruism, and a culture of collectivism. So
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: it's destructive. It's not successful. And you know, sofvare well.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: Funds are immoro. Even if they are, you know, a profitable,
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: Imagine what could be without them. Imagine all the money
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: and all their money, the trillions of dollars in the
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: Norwegian Southern War Fund. Imagine that in private hands and
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: in the ocean. The only people who should be collecting
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: money from oil other people who drill fo it. Imagine
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: if the old companies could get one hundred percent of
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: the revenue coming out of the oil from the ocean,
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: how much more drilling would happen, how much more oil
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: we would have, how many more resources we would extract,
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: how much more incentive they would have to go out
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: and find new resources all over the oceans because they
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: owned it, because they had full ownership over it. Because
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: governments shouldn't own property rights property and don't have rights.
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: All right, Thank you guys, Thanks everybody for the super chats,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: for the stickers. I will see you all tomorrow at
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: about the same time.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: I think three pm.
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: The six PM shows Monday Tuesdays might be days of
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: six M shows, we'll see, but usually the shows will
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: be at three pm.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: And I will see you tomorrow. Bye, everybody.