Latest / Money Grows on Trees / #286 - The TRUTH About My $1,000,000 Alibaba Investment
Transcript
- 0:00I put a million dollars into Alibaba. This is the top of investing.
- 0:03The wealthiest people in the world. Bernard Arnault, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Jeff
- 0:06Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg. They own the biggest share of their companies. When
- 0:10you understand this, you realize that everyone else who's playing a different game in
- 0:13their investing and money intellect, they haven't graduated to this yet. When
- 0:16you're buying whole companies or pieces of whole companies, this
- 0:20is the top. And that's why I can position seven biggers into that one
- 0:23business. I'm Lloyd James Ross, seven-figure investor and entrepreneur, and
- 0:26I've helped thousands of business owners and professionals turn financial stress
- 0:31into success. If you're stuck in old money habits, overwhelmed by
- 0:34investing, or unsure where to start, this is for you. I'll
- 0:37give you the mindset and strategies to take control, grow
- 0:41your wealth, and achieve financial freedom. It's time to make
- 0:44your money work for you. I put a million dollars into
- 0:47Alibaba. Here's why. Now here's the
- 0:50thing, this particular episode, this is not financial advice. Please do
- 0:53not take this information and run out and buy a stock. Please do not
- 0:57buy it. It's not to do that. I'm just using this as an education tool
- 1:01or an education experience to educate you about business
- 1:05analytics. What makes a good business? Where do I deploy my money? Because if
- 1:08you've been listening to my podcast for a while lately, I've been smashing the
- 1:13property stuff. And you're probably wondering, wait, if Lloyd doesn't do gold, he doesn't
- 1:16do crypto, he doesn't do profit, where does he deploy money to build wealth?
- 1:19And I got to give you the answers to that. So it's in stocks, I've
- 1:22got a portfolio, and this is my circle of competence in identifying
- 1:26great businesses and buying them for prices less than they're worth. And I've
- 1:29modelled a lot of the things that I have learned through of course, Warren Buffett,
- 1:33Charlie Munger, and key value investors like Seth Klarman and Peter Lynch
- 1:37and Joel Greenblatt and all these wonderful investors who the actual system
- 1:40of value investing that Warren Buffett really learned from Ben Graham, I've really
- 1:44been a student of that for the last 20 years. And so that's the
- 1:47system I follow for wealth building because the wealthiest people in
- 1:50the world or do this. And so the investing
- 1:54process ought to be buying businesses for
- 1:58less than what you think they're worth. So this is not financial advice. It's
- 2:01not go do this and buy this. I'm using this as an example. But I need to have
- 2:04a compelling hook. Why would Lloyd deploy a million dollars into something?
- 2:08And there's obviously high conviction at that. So you have to have high conviction around
- 2:11what makes this business a high quality business. So I
- 2:14wanna take you through this and share with you some of the reasons why
- 2:18this makes so much sense to me. Okay, and you will see some
- 2:21examples of why how my brain works in terms of deploying capital
- 2:25to grow wealth. And of course, it's part of a portfolio. It's
- 2:28not the only position because diversification is still important, even
- 2:31if you're holding, you don't want to hold everything into one
- 2:35opportunity, right? Even though Alibaba has got multiple verticals, and
- 2:38multiple income streams in his business model, it's still nice to have some diversification.
- 2:42So I have a very concentrated portfolio. I don't hold tons of stocks. I've
- 2:45learned that from Charlie Munger. If you want to beat the market, then it's best to
- 2:49hold smaller, more high conviction positions if you can find them.
- 2:52I'm not going to go into the absolute details of the exact process I
- 2:56go through to do that. If you want to learn how to do that, that's different.
- 2:59But I'm going to showcase an example here. So let's take a look at
- 3:02it. Let's dive deep together. This is going to be fun. Now, if you don't
- 3:05know what Alibaba is, Alibaba is a leading AI
- 3:09tech and mainly commerce, online commerce company in
- 3:13China. It's different to Amazon. People say it's the Amazon of China. It's actually very different.
- 3:17Well, there's some similarities, of course, because they're both in commerce. They
- 3:20both have AI. They're both leading companies. But there are some differences we'll
- 3:24get to. But of course, it was coined and created by Jack Ma,
- 3:27very famous entrepreneur. And the chairman is Joe Tsai, and
- 3:30it's run by Eddie Wu, who's the current CEO. And of course, Alibaba
- 3:34has been dominant with its real key commerce businesses in
- 3:37Timor, Taobao. Taobao is really the beginnings of
- 3:41what built Alibaba. It owns Alipay, which is, by the way, the
- 3:44largest payments company in the world. It
- 3:48processes more payments than Visa. It processes more
- 3:51payments than MasterCard. It is the number one biggest
- 3:55payment processing company in the world by transaction volume.
- 3:59But the take rates are different. So it's not the most profitable, it doesn't the
- 4:02most revenue, but it's the biggest. That's important when you start to understand what
- 4:05makes Alibaba such an important business to the world. So it's got
- 4:09mainly e-commerce in Tmall and Taobao, the two big drivers of commerce. Then
- 4:12it's got its payments business in Alipay, which is part of Ant Financial, which
- 4:15it owns 30% of. And then, of course, it's got Chaonau. It's got its
- 4:19logistics company, how it sends products all around the world. It's got AliExpress, which
- 4:22is its international arm. You may have bought something from AliExpress, right? And
- 4:26it's got its cloud business, which is now starting to grow. In fact, last quarter, it
- 4:29grew at 25% annual growth rate, right? So it's starting to have the,
- 4:33it's got the leading cloud business in China. It commands a
- 4:36market, share in cloud of
- 4:40around 40% and it's also got, it actually commands a
- 4:43pretty high commerce, like in its Tmall and Taobao commerce
- 4:47division, it commands like around 40% of the
- 4:51entire China market. In fact, if
- 4:54you've bought a product off Amazon, highly likely it
- 4:57came from Alibaba. If you've bought a product almost anywhere,
- 5:01there's a very high chance it either came from Alibaba or one of
- 5:04the main competitors to Alibaba, Pinduoduo, which actually
- 5:07also owns Timu. So the concept to grasp here is
- 5:11that Alibaba is an ecosystem of wonderful businesses
- 5:15that are all tied together to keep you in the ecosystem. But only recently, through
- 5:19Ellamy and other fast retail platforms, they're now the
- 5:22leading fast retail platform in all of China for
- 5:26fast delivery in food. So if you think about it, if you go to China and you want
- 5:29to order a coffee, it's insane. You can YouTube this.
- 5:34They will send a drone with your coffee to wherever you are. It
- 5:37is gnarly. You have no idea how much more
- 5:41advanced it is than the United States. You have no idea how much more advanced it is than
- 5:44Australia. China is now the most advanced country in the world, period. Period.
- 5:49If you don't believe me, go YouTube some of the cool stuff that they are doing. So
- 5:52what I'm saying is that if you order a coffee or food or
- 5:55cake or ice cream, you can order ice cream anywhere in China, in
- 5:58the big cities in China, and a drone drops it at a drone step. Now,
- 6:02if you're doing that, Alibaba is the leader
- 6:05in the entirety of China at fast retail. See, check out how
- 6:09the ecosystem works. They drop you your coffee, bang, you're
- 6:12in the Alibaba ecosystem as a customer. Two, you've probably paid
- 6:16through Alipay. In fact, I went to Dan Murphy's in Australia the
- 6:19other day and had Alipay on there. So it commands not
- 6:23just Chinese commerce but it commands Southeast Asian
- 6:26commerce which is arguably the most populated area of
- 6:29the world and it's leading there. So chances are
- 6:33if you buy products around the world, come from Alibaba or through the vendors in
- 6:36China that have created the
- 6:39product through Alibaba's portals. But if you're buying a product there,
- 6:42they got you on fast retail, they've got you on buying and
- 6:46selling things like, you know, Taobao is like the biggest eBay in the world. They're gonna
- 6:49get you somewhere. Then they'll get you through Alipay. Then they'll get
- 6:52you through the logistics because they're actually delivering the product through their China logistics
- 6:56company. Then they're gonna keep you in there because they're gonna apply
- 6:59their AI models on you. And if you're a business enterprise, chances
- 7:04are, there's a 40% chance you're on their cloud enterprise. You're
- 7:07using their cloud storage and data centers and so forth. So it's
- 7:11like this flip a monopoly of China. So just to give you
- 7:14a picture, Alibaba is a complete ecosystem
- 7:18business, which is why Charlie Munger, before he
- 7:22died, I believe the numbers $170 million he
- 7:25put into it. And he loved the company, and he really
- 7:29bought companies. So back in 2021, he was
- 7:32buying Alibaba, then sadly, he passed away a year later. He often said
- 7:35it was a mistake. But everyone who's been following Charlie knows that it was just
- 7:39a mistake on price at the time, because after that, The
- 7:42price collapsed a fairly long way because Jack Ma said the wrong thing to
- 7:45the CCP and so forth, and it went through a real transition. But of course,
- 7:49every company goes through challenges. But if you've got a really good quality
- 7:52company, it will be able to navigate almost all challenges, really,
- 7:56unless there's a really serious black swan event. But that was a pretty serious event, and
- 7:59it absolutely navigated it. But now, it's
- 8:02also growing. So I started investing in 2021. If
- 8:06you look at my returns from when I started investing in Alibaba, I've
- 8:10made a 15% annual compounded return. So I've
- 8:13beat the market with one position. And
- 8:17so, and again, just to give you some context, because people ask me like,
- 8:20what's your returns? Are you any good at what you're doing? And by all accounts, no,
- 8:23we're near the best and I don't report to be there's people out there so much better. It's
- 8:27a big game. It's a fun game. But for example, our portfolio, which
- 8:31is a multiple million dollar portfolio, we're up to date, year to
- 8:34date, 35% year to date since January. And
- 8:37the S&P 500 is up 14% year to date. So I'm
- 8:41beating the market by a 20% margin, which is massive. It's about doing that consistently over
- 8:44time that dictates how good you are at this game. And
- 8:48do I think I can beat the index? Yes, that's why I pick individual stocks. But
- 8:52I'm not just picking them thinking they're going to go up. I'm buying pieces of
- 8:55businesses that I understand and want to own. And I've learned that through studying
- 8:58Warren Buffett. So Alibaba is this powerful business. And
- 9:03amongst it, before I get into the details of the microeconomics of the business,
- 9:06which is what I look at to determine how effective and healthy and
- 9:10high quality of businesses that I want to own. And we're going to go through some of those cool ratios
- 9:14to look at. Before I do that, I want to just help you understand China.
- 9:18Because I have friends of mine who are heavily invested in property, they do
- 9:21have some shares, and they ask me questions like when they know that I've
- 9:24got effectively millions of dollars invested in parts
- 9:28of China, they just freak out. They're just like, are
- 9:31you kidding me? The CCP can take, the Chinese Communist Party can
- 9:34take everything from, they're just so misguided. guided
- 9:39by China. They're just uneducated. And just to put
- 9:43into context, the first time I went to China was on a China legal trip
- 9:46when I was doing my law degree. And I went into the University of China in Shanghai, Beijing,
- 9:50other parts in 2006. So I've actually been going to China since
- 9:532006. Okay, what's it now? Almost 20 years. So
- 9:57it's not like I don't know what it was like. And also I've done real estate deals in
- 10:00China. I've flown all around China to conventions. I know I've done business
- 10:03with Chinamen in China. And I've been going there. I've been there a handful
- 10:07of times in that timeframe. I'm not a stranger to it.
- 10:12I haven't been for a long time. And if you get onto YouTube and type in Chinese
- 10:16cities, you will be absolutely floored. Just
- 10:20the technologically advanced scale of
- 10:24these cities. Like I'm talking like, if you go to a city, it's just
- 10:27got randomly 50 million. Just nothing. That's nothing. Nothing. And
- 10:31it's super advanced. There's self-driving buses,
- 10:34cars, rail. It's clean. It's just the
- 10:38most advanced cities in the world. It's incredible. Go look. And
- 10:42there's like 50 million. They've got the biggest cities
- 10:46in the world at scale. Like there's multiple 50, 100 million
- 10:49dollar cities. Like it's huge. It's like Tokyo there. Then
- 10:52again, maybe it's not as Tokyo, but big. Like Shanghai
- 10:56and Beijing are big. They're some of the biggest cities in the world. but they're everywhere.
- 11:00So just let's look at the scale. There's over a billion people. I
- 11:03guess the numbers are like 1.2, 1.4 billion people in China. I'm
- 11:06not sure the exact details in China. Okay, now let's put, I
- 11:09wanna give you some macro numbers here just to help you understand the
- 11:14market and scale that Alibaba sits in. Okay,
- 11:18the addressable market. We wanna look at, we're looking at businesses. What's the total
- 11:21addressable market? The TAM it's called, of how they
- 11:24can do business. What's interesting about China is you
- 11:28don't get a lot of competition in some of the companies because
- 11:32they don't allow a lot of companies. Well, they do allow, like Google
- 11:35went there and got killed. Tesla's there and
- 11:38it's getting killed by BYD. So you can, Starbucks is
- 11:42in China and it's getting killed. So when Donald Trump says, oh, you don't
- 11:45let our businesses into China, they do, it's just they get killed there.
- 11:49So there's not as much rampant competition for some companies
- 11:53like Alibaba, which is a good thing. You wanna look for monopolies. In fact, when
- 11:56Alibaba went through its challenges in 2021, it was for anti-monopolistic behavior. So
- 12:00you wanna own monopolies if you can. Like if you look at
- 12:03Apple, Moody's, Coca-Cola, some
- 12:06of the companies that Warren Buffett owns, they're actually monopolies just about.
- 12:10So actually, you gotta look for monopolies. Just quickly, if you're ready to take control of
- 12:13your finances, but feel stuck on where to start, I have a
- 12:16solution. My book, Money Buys Happiness, simplifies investing
- 12:20and wealth building with practical steps to help you achieve financial peace.
- 12:25Get your copy via the link in the show notes and let's get your money working for
- 12:28you. Now back to the episode. Anyway, let's go through the macro setting.
- 12:32Let's look at China as a country, because it's easy to think in
- 12:35your mind, if you look back, oh, China's just
- 12:38full of like, I don't know, huts and
- 12:42people who live in dirt mound houses. They're
- 12:46farmers. They live in rice paddy. That's ridiculous.
- 12:50In the 80s, yes. But guess what? We don't live in the 80s. And what
- 12:53they've achieved in the last 45 years is nothing short of insanely, never
- 12:56had been done before in human history, what they've achieved, okay? They've gone from rice
- 13:00fields in 1980 to now being the leading country in
- 13:03the world technologically. Do you know how insane that is? In 45, it's insane. But
- 13:07it's been so insane that your mind still thinks it's rice patties. So
- 13:11when I say China, you think of like Mao's communist China,
- 13:14where people are dying from starvation. No! It's
- 13:18not that. anymore it's not don't believe me go youtube
- 13:21it okay have a look look yourself don't just be taken by
- 13:24the mainstream media's propaganda okay so
- 13:28let me put it like this china is
- 13:32the world's leading manufacturer and has been for the last 15 years
- 13:35okay right now they even control all of
- 13:38the rare earths and that's why trump did that tweet recently this week and
- 13:42caused a lot of problems in the crypto market okay a lot of people killed himself Because
- 13:46there's one tweet, because China owns the rare earths of
- 13:49the world. So without China delivering rare earths to America, they
- 13:52cannot develop defense systems. They cannot
- 13:56develop planes. They can't develop any defense. So in actual
- 13:59fact, if China really wanted to, they could cut off supply of those things to the United States. That's
- 14:03a strategic advantage. But looking at what else they have is,
- 14:06number one, leading manufacturer by 15 years. If anything is made,
- 14:10chances are like probably 80%, 90% of it is made in China. They
- 14:13own the global supply chain of the world. The second thing is they
- 14:17have 48,000 kilometers worth of brand new rail, soon to be 60,000. Like
- 14:22they're the world leading infrastructure builder. In fact, they just built
- 14:25the world's largest bridge. They did it in some crazy timeframe too.
- 14:29Like it was some gnarly, I don't know,
- 14:32I think it was like two years old. Like the biggest bridge in the world. It's amazing.
- 14:36They're the leading infrastructure developer. They also have 960 million
- 14:41people are urbanized. So it's
- 14:44moved everyone from the country to the cities. And the next few years, it's going to
- 14:47move another 5%. Another 5%? Or certainly it
- 14:52was minimum 3. That's 300 million! And the next few years,
- 14:55it's going to be 300 more million moving to cities. And you think about
- 14:58the middle class. They are becoming the largest middle class
- 15:02the world has ever seen. It's making the United States middle class look
- 15:05like a speck. No joke. It'll be three to four times
- 15:09the size of the American middle class as a consumer. Do
- 15:12you know how insane that is? So a company like Alibaba, of
- 15:16a $350 billion market cap, which it is, $350 billion market
- 15:20cap, Amazon's like almost $3 trillion. It's like over
- 15:23$2 trillion in market cap. So if you think about it, if Alibaba's marketplace,
- 15:28just in China, is going to be four times the size of
- 15:31the United States middle class, as they start to spend money there, I
- 15:37mean, it wouldn't be remiss to see Alibaba become one day in
- 15:40the future a $10 trillion company. So the market
- 15:44is a large addressable market. And Alibaba has
- 15:48sewn up the monopoly. And if you buy something in China, you're literally
- 15:52paying a toll to Alibaba in any respect. And
- 15:55that's the type of business that you want to own, okay? So huge, it's
- 15:59the leader in patents in the world. Number one, at new patents means
- 16:03it's creating all this cool stuff. Number two, it's got all the best talent. Don't
- 16:07believe me? Look at who the best mathematicians are in the United States. Chinese,
- 16:11look at best mathematicians, Chinese. China has
- 16:14all the best talent. They're smart. All they
- 16:17do is go to school, get private tutoring, work, work, work, work.
- 16:21How do you compete with that, right? Best talent. It's also got,
- 16:25what else? The stock market itself is about 11 times
- 16:28earnings compared to very richly valued market in America. So
- 16:31if you look at the Buffett Indicator in the United States, it's
- 16:35a valuation principle that Warren Buffett uses called the Buffett Indicator. It's
- 16:39where you take the price of all the public companies in America, and
- 16:42they use the Russell 5000 Index to take the top 5000 publicly listed
- 16:46companies in North America, and they divide it by the annual GDP.
- 16:50That gives you a price to earnings ratio of the economy America
- 16:54roughly as an estimate back of fab packet estimate that's at 200% Market
- 16:58under valuation is like under 100% more like 70. It's
- 17:01a 200 the United States stock market is Overvalued
- 17:06the Chinese stock market 11 times earnings. It's actually undervalued So
- 17:10just looking at the trajectory of where it can go over the next few years is huge. Okay, and
- 17:14it's just got Intermountable amounts of consumers and people, okay?
- 17:18Now, what's working against it? Demographics. The
- 17:21birth rate's not high enough to replace, you're gonna have a deceleration of birth rate,
- 17:25but guess what? Same as Australia, same
- 17:28as Canada, it's not unusual. Japan, same thing, okay? That
- 17:32doesn't mean the end of the civilization there, it just means a little bit more challenging,
- 17:36all right? But they're likely to fix it through robotics, because robotics
- 17:40are like, they're a world leader in robotics, okay? So
- 17:43let me just phrase it like this. largest addressable market, most
- 17:48technologically advanced country in the world,
- 17:52commands and owns railroads and manufacturing, it is without
- 17:56doubt, probably already the world leading superpower.
- 18:00It doesn't yet have the biggest stock market, it doesn't yet have the biggest consumers, but
- 18:03it will. So you gotta look, Wayne Gretzky used to say,
- 18:06you gotta skate where the puck's going to be, not where the puck is
- 18:10in hockey, right? Wayne Gretzky was like one of the greatest, they called him the
- 18:14greatest. Oh, they called him The Great One. That's what his nickname
- 18:17is, The Great One. He's like royalty in Canada. So
- 18:21you look at Wayne Gretzky, he would say, skate where the puck's going to
- 18:24be, not where it is. So if you look at investing, where are the most incredible
- 18:28companies and opportunities going to come from in the future? Certainly
- 18:32in the United States, yes. That will not change. Because the United States is also
- 18:35a current running superpower that's hard to beat. But China
- 18:39is going to be where the best companies are. That's why Charlie Munger said, in investing,
- 18:43fish where the fish are. So if you go fishing and you're fishing with
- 18:46no fish on, you're not going to catch one. But if you go to China, pan for pan,
- 18:49and he said this, he just realized that you get more
- 18:52bang for your buck in the quality of the companies in China for the prices they're
- 18:56selling at than anywhere else. That's all. So that hopefully
- 19:00gives you a bit of a picture of the macro. Now getting to the micro. What
- 19:03makes Alibaba interesting is it's
- 19:06got multiple business centers. So it's got commerce, which
- 19:10is growing at about 10% from the last quarterly report in Taobao and Tmall. It's
- 19:14got cloud. Now, if you look at Amazon's growth in cloud and Google's
- 19:17growth in cloud, massive. That's where the future growth engine of the company lies.
- 19:21It's growing at 30% per annum just now. However, so
- 19:24there's cloud, commerce, payments, as I said earlier, and logistics and
- 19:28international arms. It's got multiple income streams. in
- 19:31big ways, and they're market leaders in all of those. All
- 19:35of those. It's now leading in fast retail. It's
- 19:38dominating, like it's dominant, and it's not
- 19:41holding back. However, it's also got the world's leading
- 19:46AI model in Quen. Yes, world's
- 19:50leading AMR, but it's also full stack in its own right. It
- 19:54doesn't control chips yet, but recently it did a deal with NVIDIA to start collaborating and
- 19:57developing its own chips. So once that happens, it's gonna have a full stack hardware
- 20:01systems and applications, which means it's got a full stack AI
- 20:05system. The only other company that has that is Google, but Google is not
- 20:08competing with Alibaba in China. So basically what's
- 20:12going to happen is all enterprises in China, not all, but a large majority of enterprises in
- 20:15China are going to be using Alicloud, which means they're going to be using Alibaba
- 20:19AI. And Alibaba AI is on track to begin and
- 20:22win the AGI race. And Eddie Wu mentioned at a conference recently, they're
- 20:26the world leader in AI, period. Eric Schmidt, who's like the former
- 20:29CEO of Google even said, AI is not going to beat us in
- 20:32the United States, AI in China, China's already beating us. So
- 20:36I'm not even going to debate it. So if you think about the application of
- 20:40the AI on their commerce business, on their ads, because Alibaba
- 20:44makes a ton of money from ads and merchant fees. So
- 20:47they actually don't make, they don't store products. They charge merchants fees
- 20:50to be on their platform. So think of them as the largest online retailer
- 20:55where people come and pay fees to be on there to sell their stuff. And
- 20:58it can advertise to customers for
- 21:01the merchants and the merchants pay them for the advertising too. So it's actually a
- 21:05very capital light model. And you think of all the other things it
- 21:08does, it means it's got a monopoly in almost every area. Does that
- 21:11make sense? So if you look at it, market cap of 330 billion is making
- 21:14about 20 billion in net income. So it's still undervalued. It's selling for like 15 to
- 21:1917 times forward earnings. It's not expensive. The same company in
- 21:22North America will be selling for 30 to 35 times earnings. So it's actually
- 21:26selling for half the price of its equivalent in America for
- 21:29no reason that people are afraid of the CCP. But if you think about it,
- 21:33if you go there, the citizens live better than the United States. It's
- 21:37like, oh, the government can do things. The government can do anything they want in America, too. Look
- 21:40what they're doing. They don't even care. It's the same. It's
- 21:43just irrational fear, right? Do you think China is
- 21:47just going to shut down its most profitable and effective company? It's
- 21:50the most important thing to the economy. In fact, what the CCP realizes, they're
- 21:54like, uh-oh, we have to take our foot off Jack Ma's neck, because if we kill Alibaba,
- 21:57we're going to kill our country, because all the commerce flows through the company. It's
- 22:01not going to just shut it. This is ridiculous. It's not going to delist it either. Because if
- 22:04they do that, all the companies from America are going to move from
- 22:07the American Stock Exchange to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. And you can buy Alibaba
- 22:11on the Hong Kong Exchange. It's already there. So this whole delisting fear is
- 22:14made up. But it's creating a lot of uncertainty. That's why it's cheaper. So
- 22:18you can buy this company in China for like half the price of what it should
- 22:21be. Then we go above it. It's moving its return on equity up
- 22:24to 20%. So it's good at reinvesting its earnings into future growth. When
- 22:30Ant financial lists, it owns 30% of that company. It's
- 22:34got $80 billion of cash. Probably more like $60 billion of
- 22:38cash now, right? And it's only got $35 billion in debt, which means it's got net
- 22:41cash on its balance sheet, which means it can't dock. It's
- 22:45got the ability to just last and endure. It's not
- 22:48carrying a lot of debt. It's buying back its shares. It's got wonderful leadership.
- 22:52Joe Tsai, who's the chairman, bought $150 million of
- 22:55stock himself. Jack Ma put another $50 million, and Jack Ma's back,
- 22:59silently leading the company as well, now because
- 23:02of AI. It's got a wonderful leadership team. They're
- 23:06doing great deals. They're just embedding and entrenching themselves in
- 23:09the economy more and more. They're winning. And they've staved off competition from
- 23:12Pinduoduo. In fact, they're killing Meitan in
- 23:16the fast retail market. They're actually just dominating right
- 23:19now. And I just think it's the beginning. So I would anticipate that
- 23:24over the next few years, it could reach a market cap certainly of
- 23:27$2 to $4 trillion. I mean, it just looks like it's going to. But
- 23:31long term, what you want to do is you want to buy businesses that
- 23:34you never have to sell. And so there's only a few reasons to sell a stock
- 23:37is if it's egregiously overvalued, something's changed in its business model, or
- 23:41you found a better opportunity. And I just don't see any better opportunities right now
- 23:44than A, in China, for price, value. And I
- 23:47don't see any better companies doing what Alibaba is doing in all
- 23:50of its things. AI leadership, cloud leadership, commerce
- 23:54leadership, payments leadership, blah, blah, blah.
- 23:57It's just leader, leader, leader. It's just, I mean, how do you compete with that? And
- 24:01that's what you're looking for, right? If you look at the microeconomics, the
- 24:04company's undervalued, producing free cash flow at
- 24:07a great rate, investing in the right things, good leadership, buying back shares
- 24:11when they're undervalued, which it has been doing, and it's also reinvesting its
- 24:14earnings at a right rate. It's also, it's shareholder
- 24:18friendly. I mean, it's just, it all checks out and it's got net cash. Which
- 24:21is why it's David Tepper's number one position. He runs a multiple billion dollar
- 24:25portfolios. In fact, he's the leading hedge fund Manager
- 24:28this year amongst all the pros. Yes, even beating Warren Buffett at
- 24:3333% and your return his number one position is Alibaba So
- 24:38look, I hope that makes sense from a micro standpoint But if you
- 24:41add that to the macro setting that it's in with it, so if I look
- 24:45at it China's gonna win China's winning Alibaba
- 24:50is, within China, already winning. It's going to win. So we have win upon
- 24:54win, and it's selling for a very compelling price,
- 24:57where the microeconomics of the business make a lot of sense. So
- 25:01if I look at it from that perspective, that's why there's so much conviction. That's
- 25:04why I can position seven figures into that one business. Because
- 25:08I want to own the business, not the stock, the business. If
- 25:11you pick good businesses like that, they've got a long growth runway, monopolistic positions,
- 25:16good leadership, in a big, large, addressable market. The
- 25:19time when you should sell should almost be never. And Phil Fisher said that. He said, if
- 25:23you do your homework correctly and you buy the right business correctly, you should
- 25:26really never have to sell unless you've made a mistake. So I anticipate, because
- 25:30people say, well, when are you going to hold? I said, realistically, like, unless
- 25:33it gets egregiously overvalued, in which case you'll probably only sell half, I don't
- 25:37see why I'd have to sell that for the next 30 years. And this is why people say, Lloyd, why
- 25:40don't you buy Bitcoin or this or that? Because if you position
- 25:44your capital into a company like Alibaba, You can 100x
- 25:47your money very safely, very effectively for a long period of time without any
- 25:50effort. Plus, it pays a dividend. We got
- 25:53paid a dividend in June. It paid for our entire trip in Thailand for
- 25:57a month. So I'm also getting free cash flow from myself to buy things. And
- 26:00it's going up. So when you understand this, you realize
- 26:04that everyone else who's playing a different game is just not as, in
- 26:07their investing and money intellect, they haven't graduated to this yet. This
- 26:11is the top. This is the top. When you're buying whole
- 26:14companies or pieces of whole companies, this is the top. This
- 26:18is the top of investing. And how do I know that? Because if
- 26:21you go and look at the wealthiest people in the world, Bernard Arnault, Elon
- 26:24Musk, Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and
- 26:28I could go on. They own the biggest share of their companies. You can
- 26:31buy Facebook like Mark. You can buy Amazon like Jeff. They are all
- 26:34the wealthiest people in the world. I'm not even going to debate this. Do you understand? This
- 26:38is the game. This is the game. Everything
- 26:42else is just amateur. Oh, what's gold doing?
- 26:45Who gives a, who care? They don't care. They're
- 26:49playing big boy games in the big boy sandpit. And
- 26:52girls, there's Cathy Woods up there, she's doing things like that. Not that I'm a big fan
- 26:56of hers, but they're playing big people games,
- 27:00to be politically correct. And most people are like, are you doing the
- 27:03crypto market and the gold market? No one cares. It's
- 27:06just a, it's a lame game. It is. It
- 27:10takes no intellect. It's a trading game. It's for degenerates.
- 27:16We're trying to identify great companies that are good for the
- 27:19world, that are positioned monopolistic, that you can buy a
- 27:22piece of and compound your money safely and effectively for a
- 27:26long period of time better than any other method. How do I know that? The evidence is there. The
- 27:30evidence is there. And I only model
- 27:33behaviors off the best people. So I've modeled what Warren Buffett's done. He's been one of
- 27:37the wealthiest guys in the world for the longest period of time. So why would you model anything
- 27:40else than what they do? You see what I'm saying? So this is why
- 27:43I like to beat up all the other ways, because this just
- 27:47seems the most pure way of building wealth and growing wealth.
- 27:51So I hope that makes sense. And I hope the hook worked. You're like,
- 27:54what? He bought a million dollars and went, yes. But you have to understand the
- 27:58science behind it. It's not that. It's methodically
- 28:03understood to be, I want to own a piece of this business for a long period of time. And
- 28:06this is how you build wealth. You can get passive income doing that, you
- 28:09can build wealth doing that, and you can do it in a way that's actually safer than
- 28:12what you think. Because here's how I look at it. For me
- 28:16to lose that, the entirety of Alibaba would have to fall away
- 28:19and die. If that happens, bye bye Amazon. How do
- 28:22I know? Because almost all the products you buy on Amazon have come from China.
- 28:28Now you're getting a bit of a picture of what it looks like in my head. So does that make sense? Even
- 28:32if it doesn't, please come and fight me in the comments about what
- 28:35I'm talking about or some encouragements fine too. And certainly if you have a question
- 28:38about what I spoke about in this episode, pop it in the comments below, okay? I
- 28:42hope you've enjoyed part of the process of unpacking this cool
- 28:46topic of what it is. And again, please, please, please do
- 28:49not go out and rush out and buy this. This is for education purposes only to help
- 28:52you understand how I personally like to combine wealth and how I
- 28:56look at things, how I approach things, and how there's a science behind the
- 28:59process. All right, so I hope it makes sense. Again, if you want to slam
- 29:02in the comments, I'll see you there. I'll come and reply to all of them myself, and I'll come
- 29:05and I'll check out what you're going to leave there. If you've enjoyed this, share it with a friend. Hit
- 29:09the subscribe button if you want to see more. And if this is something you want to see more of,
- 29:12please also leave it in the comments and say, yes, I'd love you to do another one and another one
- 29:15and another one because I can do this forever. It's something where I want to
- 29:18do more of this as a series so I can always pivot
- 29:22between properties way over there and
- 29:26what can we go on by. I hope that makes sense and I'll see you in the next
- 29:29episode. Thanks for listening to Money Grows on Trees. If you enjoyed the
- 29:32episode, leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify and
- 29:36subscribe to us on YouTube so you never miss an episode. And
- 29:39if you're serious about building wealth, make sure to check out the links in the show
- 29:42notes and follow me on all social media platforms, at