Latest / 3 and Out with John Middlekauff / The Big Games’ Best Bets with Action Network's, Stuckey

Transcript

The Big Games’ Best Bets with Action Network's, Stuckey · 3 and Out with John Middlekauff

0:01
Speaker 1: The volume.
0:14
Speaker 2: What is going on everybody? How are we doing? John
0:18
Speaker 2: Middlecoff three and Out podcast. Hopefully everyone's doing well, living
0:24
Speaker 2: out there in the real world, having a good day,
0:27
Speaker 2: having a great week. I recorded last week at the end,
0:31
Speaker 2: I think on Thursday or Friday. I can't even all
0:33
Speaker 2: the days run together with Stucky, and I was gonna
0:36
Speaker 2: put it out on Monday, but like I said earlier,
0:37
Speaker 2: this week, we had some stuff come up, so I
0:40
Speaker 2: realized I'm gonna be traveling, might not be able to
0:42
Speaker 2: record one. Don't want to skip a day, so let's
0:44
Speaker 2: put him out today on Wednesday, and that is what
0:47
Speaker 2: we're gonna do. So this will be our talk with
0:50
Speaker 2: Stucky from all things gambling, I mean, the line hasn't changed.
0:54
Speaker 2: The storylines and the themes of these two teams obviously haven't changed.
0:58
Speaker 2: We don't have much clarity on the Drake may injury.
1:01
Speaker 2: I mean he's gonna play as Sam donold. I was
1:04
Speaker 2: told he was hurt and then his oblique looked fine.
1:06
Speaker 2: He was slaying it all over the last couple of weeks.
1:08
Speaker 2: So yeah, we'll hit everything from betting on the game,
1:12
Speaker 2: to the trends to some props. We'll kind of dive
1:15
Speaker 2: deep into this matchup. Which super Bowl sixty I almost
1:20
Speaker 2: said San Francisco, California. The Super Bowl festivities are in
1:23
Speaker 2: San Francisco. The game is in Santa Clara Levi Stadium,
1:26
Speaker 2: which I've seen a lot of football games there, and
1:30
Speaker 2: I actually saw the one and only Super Bowl that
1:32
Speaker 2: they hosted when the Broncos upset the Panthers. It didn't
1:38
Speaker 2: feel like an upset to me, but they technically, by
1:40
Speaker 2: gambling standpoint, were a several point underdog. I think it
1:44
Speaker 2: closed like one and a half. But von Miller MVP
1:47
Speaker 2: and the rest history. And this one's for Pat, as
1:50
Speaker 2: John Alway said when Jim Nance handed him the trophy
1:53
Speaker 2: as he was the GM at the time. So you
1:56
Speaker 2: can watch the John Elway documentary on Netflix, where you
1:58
Speaker 2: can also see this podcast. So you can see all
2:01
Speaker 2: of our podcasts, all of our videos from Three and
2:04
Speaker 2: Out up on Netflix. I'll make sure you go check
2:06
Speaker 2: that out and subscribe. And if you listen on Collins feed,
2:09
Speaker 2: make sure you subscribe to a three and Out feed
2:11
Speaker 2: so you never ever miss an episode. We really appreciate
2:15
Speaker 2: you guys for riding along, coming along on this journey
2:18
Speaker 2: which is a little Football Daily Talk as we do
2:22
Speaker 2: right here, So let's dive into Tustuckey back again bittersweet
2:28
Speaker 2: because the season is coming to an end. But before
2:31
Speaker 2: we hit record, we were talking college basketball. We were
2:34
Speaker 2: talking Mario Christobal, who you know, Dabo goes on this
2:38
Speaker 2: rant about Ole Miss, But the University of Miami, they
2:42
Speaker 2: are they will steal any player in their path. And
2:46
Speaker 2: obviously we've got the Super Bowl because Seattle takes on
2:49
Speaker 2: the New England Patriots at Levi Stadium where the last
2:53
Speaker 2: time San Francisco hosted that bad boy, there was I
2:56
Speaker 2: don't want to say a big upset, but the Denver
2:59
Speaker 2: Bronco were an underdog against the Carolina Panthers, and your
3:02
Speaker 2: boy who attended that game at the time, I mean
3:04
Speaker 2: I definitely didn't have enough money to put I think
3:07
Speaker 2: I put a total of a round five thousand dollars
3:09
Speaker 2: on the Broncos and it was an very uncomfortable amount
3:13
Speaker 2: of money at the time, a decade ago, and it
3:15
Speaker 2: was sweet and I was there around the fifty yard line.
3:19
Speaker 2: That was badass. And now we get a game kind.
3:22
Speaker 1: Of right at the Super Bowl.
3:27
Speaker 2: No, this that was Denver Seattle, This was like, ye
3:31
Speaker 2: got it?
3:32
Speaker 1: That was that Cam Newton, don't go after the ball one.
3:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, this was the I think the first drive. Peyton
3:36
Speaker 2: had the noodle arm. But they drove and they scored.
3:39
Speaker 2: And then I felt so comfortable with Denver because I
3:42
Speaker 2: was doing like local radio postgame shows for the Raiders,
3:46
Speaker 2: so I was just watching these teams in person and
3:48
Speaker 2: watching that Denver team for like the three plus years.
3:51
Speaker 2: Their defense was incredible. Their their d line, Von Miller
3:55
Speaker 2: in his prime, where was still elite. Malik Jackson and
3:58
Speaker 2: Derek Wolf. People forget Wolf and Malik Jackson, World problem inside,
4:02
Speaker 2: Trevathan Brandon Marshall, all their dbs, TJ. Ward, They had
4:06
Speaker 2: a bunch of cover corners. Remember Chris Harris Junior was
4:09
Speaker 2: their slot guy. They wrecked shop on defense. Now, Peyton's
4:14
Speaker 2: arm didn't work, but if that defense was playing right
4:17
Speaker 2: now in the NFL would be the number one defense
4:18
Speaker 2: by far.
4:20
Speaker 1: Funny thing about that Super Bowl, I mean there's a
4:23
Speaker 1: lot of like revisionists, people like, well we're you know,
4:26
Speaker 1: as time passes, you people remember certain things like it's
4:31
Speaker 1: all about like the Ravens winning the Super Bowl in
4:33
Speaker 1: twenty twelve. People think because it was Ray Lewis and
4:36
Speaker 1: Ed Reid. That was all about their defense. But they
4:38
Speaker 1: were over the hill. Their defense stunk. That was all
4:40
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco just going on a miraculous run. And then
4:43
Speaker 1: that Broncos team. People think, oh, it's Peyton Manning. No,
4:47
Speaker 1: that was all about the defense. The second so Emmanuel
4:50
Speaker 1: Sanders at six catches in that game. The second leading
4:53
Speaker 1: receiver in a game that the Broncos won comfortably was
4:56
Speaker 1: Andre Caldwell, who had one catch for twenty two yards.
4:59
Speaker 1: That's it. Owen Daniels had one catch for eighteen yards,
5:03
Speaker 1: and that's basically the entire path. I mean, Manning was
5:07
Speaker 1: thirteen to twenty three for one hundred and forty yards
5:08
Speaker 1: an interception. That defense was legit right on bar with
5:14
Speaker 1: this historically good Seattle defense.
5:18
Speaker 2: Well, if they would have had like again, because I
5:21
Speaker 2: was seeing that team live the peak Manning of like
5:23
Speaker 2: three years previously, the guy that won the MVP and
5:26
Speaker 2: threw fifty five touchdowns. If that version would have been
5:29
Speaker 2: on that team, I mean, I think it would have
5:30
Speaker 2: gone down as like one of the greatest teams of
5:32
Speaker 2: all time because the offense when he first got there
5:35
Speaker 2: was unstoppable and then it kind of rotated and they
5:39
Speaker 2: kind of met in the middle the two years before
5:42
Speaker 2: when they played Seattle's like this team is incredible. They
5:45
Speaker 2: sunk it up in that Super Bowl. But then his
5:48
Speaker 2: arm didn't work. People forget he got bench for us
5:50
Speaker 2: Wiler that year. Remember Elway had to like give him
5:53
Speaker 2: kind of a talk, you know, like, hey man, this
5:55
Speaker 2: is it was like did he get benched? And then
5:58
Speaker 2: he went to Kubiak's office and Lway was sitting there,
6:00
Speaker 2: and then they asked him to take a pay cut.
6:02
Speaker 2: You know, it was kind of getting weird, but it
6:05
Speaker 2: won the Super Bowl, and you know, time heals all
6:08
Speaker 2: kind of weirdness and no one even remembers it. It's like,
6:10
Speaker 2: oh that Peyton Manning.
6:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's it's pretty insane that of just how
6:18
Speaker 1: cooked he was and how much it didn't matter because
6:20
Speaker 1: the defense was just that good. And yeah, we're looking
6:25
Speaker 1: at how.
6:26
Speaker 2: Many defensive players have ever won the MVP definitely in
6:29
Speaker 2: the last twenty five years. Is he the only one?
6:33
Speaker 2: What's his name on the Bucks?
6:35
Speaker 1: Dexter Jackson won it on the Bucks. And the weird
6:40
Speaker 1: thing about Dexter Jackson winning it and Malcolm Smith for
6:45
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, Oh yeah, Ray Lewis won it, but back
6:49
Speaker 1: that was in two thousand and then there was a
6:53
Speaker 1: couple before then, in the seventies and eighties.
6:57
Speaker 2: One of the guys on the Cowboys won it dB
7:00
Speaker 2: and then the Al Davis signed him. I forget his name,
7:02
Speaker 2: not Darren Woodson, but I thought like in ninety four
7:06
Speaker 2: or ninety five, maybe Larry Brown.
7:09
Speaker 1: Is that it? Yeah, and then there was a defensive
7:14
Speaker 1: player who won MVP from a losing team, which is
7:19
Speaker 1: something that.
7:21
Speaker 2: Is that possible in football like it is in hockey.
7:22
Speaker 2: You know when they give the consmyc like the goalie
7:25
Speaker 2: in a game seven. I think it's happened before. Pretty rare,
7:28
Speaker 2: but I feel like football it would be impossible. Because
7:31
Speaker 2: Brady made the argument that one year when he threw
7:33
Speaker 2: five hundred yards and they lost to the Eagles.
7:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's pretty it's amazing to think. I mean,
7:40
Speaker 1: the Colts beat the Cowboys sixteen thirteen. It was known
7:44
Speaker 1: as the Blunde This was in the early seventies. It
7:47
Speaker 1: was known as the Blunderbowl, and the Colts won in
7:50
Speaker 1: the last second field goal. It was just turnovers. There
7:53
Speaker 1: was nothing but turnovers the entire game. It was the
7:57
Speaker 1: first game ever played on artificial turf, and yeah, a
8:01
Speaker 1: linebacker Chuck Colly won the MVP, so uh, there was
8:09
Speaker 1: twelve turnovers in the game. If you can believe that.
8:13
Speaker 2: I feel like the Super Bowl MVP. I don't know.
8:16
Speaker 2: It's like when you bring up Cooper Cup. Maybe it's
8:20
Speaker 2: just the time twenty twenty one, you know, I don't
8:23
Speaker 2: because for Edelman, I feel it sticks. But he was
8:25
Speaker 2: part of twenty eight three. It's like probably one of
8:27
Speaker 2: the most famous games and like definitely of our lifetime.
8:30
Speaker 2: I'm not even super Bowl, non super Bowl whatever, like
8:33
Speaker 2: no one ever. Twenty eight threes is just a just
8:36
Speaker 2: a moment that most people don't forget. I feel like
8:38
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup, most people don't really remember. Like if you
8:41
Speaker 2: just like, hey, I introduced you to Cooper Cup, like,
8:43
Speaker 2: oh that do they play for the Rams? It was
8:44
Speaker 2: a really good wide receiver for a long time. Do
8:46
Speaker 2: you think people would be like, oh, that's super Bowl MVP.
8:49
Speaker 1: No, that's true. I mean, yeah, the Super Bowl MVP.
8:52
Speaker 1: You had that bomb, you had Bon Miller in twenty sixteen,
8:56
Speaker 1: Malcolm Smith in twenty fourteen. But I mean going back
9:00
Speaker 1: to other than that, if you go all the way
9:03
Speaker 1: back to you know, the past twenty years, it's just
9:06
Speaker 1: quarterbacks and receivers. So I mean there is a world
9:12
Speaker 1: where this is just a super defensive, low scoring game.
9:18
Speaker 2: Well, the quarterbacks hurt. Well, I mean obviously we've seen Donald,
9:21
Speaker 2: but what about the other guy?
9:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, May, I mean they say there could be a shoulder.
9:26
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be much. But yeah,
9:29
Speaker 1: we don't know as of right now. I'm not reading
9:31
Speaker 1: too much into it. But yeah, I mean there's a
9:33
Speaker 1: chance that May isn't one hundred percent. There's a chance
9:36
Speaker 1: that Donald's oblique flares up. I mean, He's looked fine
9:40
Speaker 1: and he has two more weeks, but you never know.
9:42
Speaker 1: I'm not a doctor. But if this is like a
9:44
Speaker 1: super low scoring game, and I mean, look, the Seahawks
9:47
Speaker 1: all year have been scoring on defense, special teams, you know,
9:54
Speaker 1: which could bring like Shaheed into it. I mean, if
9:58
Speaker 1: you go back to that Rams Seahawks Week sixteen game,
10:04
Speaker 1: which looking back, is probably the most important game of
10:07
Speaker 1: the season. They that enabled them to win the division,
10:10
Speaker 1: that comeback get the one seed. It sent the Rams
10:15
Speaker 1: all around the country, and then having to come to
10:18
Speaker 1: Seattle and Seattle gott to buy and then you know
10:21
Speaker 1: a blowout win got the Stay Battle.
10:23
Speaker 2: Seattle hasn't lost a game since the middle of November.
10:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, but that, I mean that game was so huge
10:29
Speaker 1: for them. But you could argue in that game, I mean,
10:31
Speaker 1: there was too many points you would you would probably
10:33
Speaker 1: give it to Darnold. I mean, really the V if
10:35
Speaker 1: that game was the Super Bowl, there was a case
10:39
Speaker 1: that it that it was Kuka who had twelve catches
10:44
Speaker 1: for two hundred and fifty yards, But really the MVP
10:46
Speaker 1: of the game was Shaheed for that punt return that
10:49
Speaker 1: flipped the game. So guess if this is a really
10:51
Speaker 1: low scoring game and like scheheedas a punt big punt return.
10:56
Speaker 1: But I could see this being one where a defensive
10:58
Speaker 1: player maybe now picking who it is, good luck put
11:04
Speaker 1: a put a blindfold on a bunch of defenders. I mean,
11:06
Speaker 1: look like Malcolm Smith and Dexter Jackson have won.
11:09
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, isn't Seattle's defense kind of built
11:12
Speaker 2: like that? Like it's not like there's Von Miller and
11:15
Speaker 2: Aaron Donald, they kind of a group.
11:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean even Warres, he's the guys making a
11:20
Speaker 1: ton of plays. So but yeah, there's it's just there's
11:25
Speaker 1: a lot of players all over it, but it's usually
11:27
Speaker 1: like who we get a random pick six and that's
11:29
Speaker 1: so random, but I you know, most likely it's gonna
11:31
Speaker 1: be the quarterback. The one except the one exception over
11:34
Speaker 1: the past twenty years is when there is a receiver
11:37
Speaker 1: who just dominates the box score and there's not much
11:42
Speaker 1: other scoring. Right, So like a twenty one, say the
11:46
Speaker 1: Seahawks win twenty one thirteen, JSN has eight catches for
11:51
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty eight yards and two touchdowns, and
11:55
Speaker 1: you know the Seahawks had another rushing touchdown. You know,
11:58
Speaker 1: then you're probably gonna give it the JSN. Like that's
12:00
Speaker 1: been the trend with some of these other receivers who
12:02
Speaker 1: have won it, and Jaysen certainly fits that profile, right
12:06
Speaker 1: you He's a target monster. He's had huge games where
12:10
Speaker 1: he's you know, you have a bunch of other guys
12:13
Speaker 1: who have one or two catches. She he might catch
12:15
Speaker 1: a bomb, you know, you throw it to some of
12:17
Speaker 1: your tight ends, and I mean.
12:19
Speaker 2: She dominated in the In the NFC Championship game, he
12:22
Speaker 2: had catches that didn't even count. The one credible.
12:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, his hands are ridiculous. Some of the one handed
12:27
Speaker 1: catches that he has are insane. I mean watching him
12:30
Speaker 1: vers Puka is just awesome, sick, but I am so
12:35
Speaker 1: curious to see I mean, like this, I could talk
12:38
Speaker 1: about this stuff all day, but schematically, what's gonna end
12:40
Speaker 1: up deciding a lot of this and a lot of
12:43
Speaker 1: the player props is how these defensive coordinators and coaches
12:48
Speaker 1: decide to approach this game and additionally the adjustments they
12:54
Speaker 1: make within the game. So if this was Belichick, and
12:59
Speaker 1: obviously this Patriot it's coaching staff has a lot of
13:02
Speaker 1: ties to Belichick. His MO was, you know, take away
13:07
Speaker 1: your strong arm right, make you play left handed. So
13:12
Speaker 1: I know what Belichick would do. He would he would
13:15
Speaker 1: probably have you know, Christian Gonzales man up the other receiver,
13:23
Speaker 1: not JSN, and then have your other corners on JSN
13:30
Speaker 1: with a safety over top bracketing him the entire game,
13:34
Speaker 1: and you basically double double team. JSN gets a little
13:38
Speaker 1: more complicated if they're able to move into the slot more,
13:41
Speaker 1: which maybe they will, But that's what Belichick would do,
13:44
Speaker 1: he would say, and I think I would do that too.
13:47
Speaker 1: JSN is not beating me, right, So like my Rundy's
13:51
Speaker 1: really good and my run Dy went healthy has been
13:54
Speaker 1: really good all year. No one's been able to run
13:56
Speaker 1: on the Patriots. They have good corners, but I'm saying
14:03
Speaker 1: jas N is not beating me. He's getting bracketed as
14:06
Speaker 1: much as humanly possible. And if you want to throw
14:08
Speaker 1: the cup, if you want to throw the Shaheed and
14:11
Speaker 1: barn are fine, but I would trust my other corners
14:15
Speaker 1: on them, man them up, take away Jsn. So if
14:18
Speaker 1: that's if that occurs, then you know Jasn is gonna
14:21
Speaker 1: be used more as a decoy and just not have
14:23
Speaker 1: as many opportunities. So Number one, how do the Patriots
14:26
Speaker 1: approach that? Do they put their best corner on him
14:28
Speaker 1: and Gonzales, who you know, I believe led the league
14:31
Speaker 1: in yards per reception or yards per snap this year.
14:36
Speaker 1: Do they trust him he's shut down some big name
14:38
Speaker 1: receivers before. Or do they say we're going to bracket
14:42
Speaker 1: them with a safety at another corner. That's super interesting
14:45
Speaker 1: and then the Seahawks are going to counter, right, They're
14:48
Speaker 1: probably gonna move Jasn around. Do they have them coming
14:50
Speaker 1: out of the back of the more put him in
14:52
Speaker 1: the slot more so that that type of stuff. You know,
14:55
Speaker 1: with these staffs, they are in two weeks to think
14:57
Speaker 1: about it. No one really knows, but that's usually what
15:01
Speaker 1: goes a long way in determining. I mean, you go
15:03
Speaker 1: back to that Rams Patriots super Bowl, that game plan
15:07
Speaker 1: that the Patriots came up with defensively with the five
15:10
Speaker 1: man fronts, that just threw the Rams for a loop
15:13
Speaker 1: and they had no idea what to do. Things like that,
15:17
Speaker 1: I give McDonald is a mad scientist. He what is
15:21
Speaker 1: he going to come up with? What is McDaniel's going
15:23
Speaker 1: to come up with? Is all super interesting and no
15:28
Speaker 1: one really knows the answers. But that's probably in these
15:31
Speaker 1: high leverage games. Also, this is when you switch everything up,
15:34
Speaker 1: like this the ultimate high leverage game. Right, you know
15:36
Speaker 1: that the other team knows your tendencies, they know where
15:40
Speaker 1: you're strong, where you're weak, what you like to do.
15:42
Speaker 1: So this is the time where you completely change up.
15:45
Speaker 1: But you don't want to change up too much, right
15:47
Speaker 1: and go away from That's what McDonald's had happened in
15:51
Speaker 1: that Thursday night game, Like you tried to change up
15:53
Speaker 1: some things on a short week, and so you don't
15:56
Speaker 1: want to go away from who you are, but you
15:57
Speaker 1: do have to throw in some curveballs, and sometimes team
16:00
Speaker 1: will throw in some major card balls that end up
16:02
Speaker 1: deciding the game. That's that's the stuff that I love,
16:05
Speaker 1: but obviously makes it makes it more difficult to bet
16:08
Speaker 1: because you're just you're not going to be able to
16:10
Speaker 1: use as much of the data and the tendencies that
16:13
Speaker 1: you're and you know, schematic tendencies that you can during
16:16
Speaker 1: a regular season game or even a wild card game.
16:19
Speaker 1: But that's what makes the Super Bowl so fun to me.
16:21
Speaker 2: Well, I like Seattle minus four and a half a lot,
16:25
Speaker 2: but the one thing that gives me pause is the
16:27
Speaker 2: coaching for New England is elite. And Sean Payton said
16:31
Speaker 2: it when he went forward on that fourth down, he said,
16:33
Speaker 2: we got the look we want, but when we snapped it,
16:36
Speaker 2: they ran a completely different play. Who does that sound
16:38
Speaker 2: like Bill? Who, like you just said, the schematic who
16:42
Speaker 2: was a major part of the actual implementation of the
16:45
Speaker 2: schemes in the two thousands, Mike freaking Vrable, right, So
16:50
Speaker 2: you know, I think sometimes we look at him and
16:52
Speaker 2: he's just big massive alpha like a Jim Harbaugh. I
16:55
Speaker 2: think he's a lot smarter and he gets credit for
16:57
Speaker 2: and I you can chat GPT me on this, and
16:59
Speaker 2: I could be wrong, but I don't think any offensive
17:01
Speaker 2: coordinator and I don't mean head coach, I mean an
17:03
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator that's calling the plays, has game plan more
17:07
Speaker 2: playoff games now super Bowls than Josh McDaniels and the
17:11
Speaker 2: advantage Now. I think Mike is elite and he's Shanahan
17:17
Speaker 2: Andy Reid, but he's that version of defense and like
17:21
Speaker 2: if they bring, you know, the type game plan that
17:25
Speaker 2: he had against Let's a couple of years ago when
17:28
Speaker 2: they played like the forty nine ers and he just
17:30
Speaker 2: made Purty look like I mean completely over has had
17:32
Speaker 2: a young player. He can make young players. Drake may
17:36
Speaker 2: is more talented than Brock, but he can just turn
17:39
Speaker 2: young you know players into mush and get them seeing ghosts.
17:43
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a prop that any quarterback to throw
17:45
Speaker 2: two interceptions. I got almost two to one, A pick
17:49
Speaker 2: six is plus sixty is almost seven to one. So
17:52
Speaker 2: it's like Mike McDonald, if you tell me that he
17:55
Speaker 2: just has this incredible game plan because he has the
17:57
Speaker 2: pieces to deal with like very people kind of needs
18:01
Speaker 2: the game. I feel like to be ugly to give
18:03
Speaker 2: his team a chance, like I think Patriot fans would
18:05
Speaker 2: be the first to acknowledge, like, of all their Super
18:07
Speaker 2: Bowl teams in the last like twenty years, this is
18:08
Speaker 2: probably the least talented, Like like it's gonna be it's
18:12
Speaker 2: theory more talented in a couple of years. If Donald's
18:14
Speaker 2: gonna play like he just did the other night, Like
18:16
Speaker 2: this team is really talented. I mean defense is completely loaded. Jsn'
18:19
Speaker 2: is an elite player. They just drafted a guard who
18:22
Speaker 2: you know has got a chance to be like an
18:23
Speaker 2: eight time pro bowler, you know, I mean Kenneth Walker's
18:26
Speaker 2: been really good. Uh and and again Donald, like he's
18:31
Speaker 2: played pretty well for two years. Like there's no he's
18:33
Speaker 2: been like a top ten quarterback. No one can even
18:35
Speaker 2: argue that. So to me, if you like Seattle, you
18:39
Speaker 2: almost just gotta I would ride Donald to win the
18:43
Speaker 2: MVP some some props like of their defense to cause interceptions,
18:47
Speaker 2: maybe a pick six, Like that's the way I'm going.
18:50
Speaker 2: But I get back to that Sean Payton quote of
18:53
Speaker 2: like we saw what we wanted and then it wasn't that.
18:56
Speaker 2: It's like, well, yeah, no shit, Sewan, this is the
18:58
Speaker 2: fucking answer Championship game, and you know, what would you do?
19:01
Speaker 2: And it's almost like he sounded shocked because I think
19:04
Speaker 2: he doesn't view I don't want to say it was
19:06
Speaker 2: a shot at Rabel, but I don't think they took him.
19:09
Speaker 2: I don't think he would have said that if it
19:10
Speaker 2: was Bill, because he would have assumed that. But I
19:12
Speaker 2: don't think you assumed that with Mike. It's like, oh,
19:15
Speaker 2: they got good players, Milton Williams back, They're just tough.
19:17
Speaker 2: He's you know, like they wore a couple of years ago,
19:19
Speaker 2: remember like Bills last year. Then they win four games,
19:22
Speaker 2: but they were pretty good statistically on defense, especially against
19:24
Speaker 2: the run.
19:25
Speaker 1: Yep.
19:26
Speaker 2: So it's like I I think Mike is like the
19:29
Speaker 2: double whammy. He's he's the leader toughness, like the Tomlin Harbaugh,
19:33
Speaker 2: but he the scheme stuff in his back pocket. I mean,
19:36
Speaker 2: what's this the young coordinator that filled in for the
19:39
Speaker 2: for Williams that got sick, Like Mike has a heavy
19:41
Speaker 2: hand on that defensive scheme.
19:44
Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, you keep saying, Mike, you gotta
19:47
Speaker 1: clarify it's.
19:47
Speaker 2: Throwing Braby because I think the coaches. McDonald is viewed
19:54
Speaker 2: as like the wiz kid the I mean, I had
19:57
Speaker 2: a buddy on the Raven staff a couple of years ago,
19:58
Speaker 2: they called him like the defensesive genius, like the Wizard,
20:02
Speaker 2: where Rabel's viewed more as the tough guy. But I
20:04
Speaker 2: think Rabel is much closer to Mike and Mike McDonald's personality.
20:09
Speaker 2: It's weird, like when you see him talk, he doesn't
20:11
Speaker 2: come off like some crazy defensive guy. Like you watch Fangio,
20:14
Speaker 2: You're like, that's a fucking curmudgeon defensive guy. You watch McDonald,
20:17
Speaker 2: you're like, seems like pretty normal, you know, which he
20:19
Speaker 2: clearly must not be. Where Rabel. Rabel's kind of got
20:22
Speaker 2: the feel of much more of a defensive guy.
20:25
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean I grew up in Philly, so I
20:27
Speaker 1: was used to like who was Who's the original? Like
20:31
Speaker 1: Buddy Ryan?
20:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, uh, like the ditcase, the Buddy Ryan's the fangs.
20:37
Speaker 2: They're just angry, you know, Bill Belichick. It's why Belichick
20:41
Speaker 2: and Polliyon hate each other. They're the same guy. They're
20:45
Speaker 2: just angry.
20:46
Speaker 1: I think Rabel is super This is my by the way,
20:49
Speaker 1: my Rabel impression all game just sits hand on his knees,
20:55
Speaker 1: looks like he's got to take a dump, rolls his eyes.
20:58
Speaker 1: But he is super underrated in in game stuff. There
21:04
Speaker 1: are like six or seven things that he's done as
21:07
Speaker 1: a head coach dating back to the Titans that most
21:10
Speaker 1: almost all coaches wouldn't do that get his team little edges.
21:14
Speaker 1: For example, last week there was the Broncos had the
21:21
Speaker 1: ball with two thirty to go down three before before
21:29
Speaker 1: Stid him through that interception that basically ended the game.
21:33
Speaker 1: He the Broncos subbed off. I don't think the announcers
21:38
Speaker 1: caught this, but the Broncos they didn't catch something. Yeah,
21:44
Speaker 1: they they subbed off a receiver which they shouldn't have done.
21:49
Speaker 1: And then you vrabel sent got into defenses on the
21:55
Speaker 1: sidelines and instructed his subbed out his defensive lineman. If
22:01
Speaker 1: you go back and watch, he has a defensive lineman
22:06
Speaker 1: off from the and they have to wait to sub
22:09
Speaker 1: and it bled like twenty four seconds off the clock,
22:13
Speaker 1: which were huge at that time. Obviously it did ended
22:17
Speaker 1: up mattering, but he knows.
22:18
Speaker 2: The how many coaches do that? You think, what's that?
22:21
Speaker 2: How many coaches do that? That move right there?
22:24
Speaker 1: Not many, but there there. He knows the rule book.
22:26
Speaker 1: That was one of Belichick's biggest strengths, and he would
22:29
Speaker 1: spend they he would find like little loopholes to use
22:32
Speaker 1: in like the playoffs. There was that game against the
22:36
Speaker 1: Ravens where Harball got really mad with the motion, but
22:41
Speaker 1: he knew the he knows the rule book. He got
22:43
Speaker 1: that from Belichick, I think, and like knows time management,
22:47
Speaker 1: clock management, so those little edges he's really good at
22:52
Speaker 1: as far as the game is concerned. Some interesting trends
22:56
Speaker 1: which are interesting, but you know, it doesn't mean anything
22:59
Speaker 1: for one game. But dating back to Super Bowl thirty
23:02
Speaker 1: thirty years ago, there have been sixteen Super Bowls with
23:06
Speaker 1: a spread of four and a half. For more, underdog
23:09
Speaker 1: is twelve two and two against the spread covered seven
23:11
Speaker 1: in a row. Interestingly, I one of my biggest bets
23:15
Speaker 1: of all time was on the Falcons plus four and
23:17
Speaker 1: a half. But it closed three. It doesn't count, but
23:19
Speaker 1: I lost. That's that's a twenty eight three game. You
23:22
Speaker 1: mentioned that being one of the most famous score that game.
23:26
Speaker 1: I lost the under and the Falcons plus four and
23:28
Speaker 1: a half, one of my my big one of the
23:29
Speaker 1: start of this day, my biggest bets ever, one of
23:32
Speaker 1: the most painful bet and then became like the most
23:33
Speaker 1: famous game that I got to hear about forever. But
23:35
Speaker 1: the Patriots scored, they won by six.
23:38
Speaker 2: I think it was they scored over time.
23:39
Speaker 1: They scored, they got the won the coin toss, and
23:44
Speaker 1: I knew I think it was thirty seven thirty one
23:46
Speaker 1: or thirty four twenty eight, thirty four twenty eight. The
23:48
Speaker 1: Falcons didn't score after being of twenty eight three. So
23:52
Speaker 1: underdogs have been really good in the Super Bowl above
23:54
Speaker 1: a field goal. I you know, the thing is that
23:59
Speaker 1: I've struggled to remember a team like the Patriots where
24:06
Speaker 1: I still don't feel that confident in my rating for
24:09
Speaker 1: them because the you know we've had, I mean, number one,
24:13
Speaker 1: they've had the easiest regular season schedule of the past
24:17
Speaker 1: twenty five years, and that's just based on you know,
24:21
Speaker 1: looking at opposing team record, strength of teams, you throw
24:25
Speaker 1: on all the backups they faced. It's even easier than that.
24:29
Speaker 1: So like during the regular season, we didn't get a
24:30
Speaker 1: great we didn't got many data points against number one
24:35
Speaker 1: real quarterbacks and number two real defenses, Like they didn't
24:38
Speaker 1: face the top ten defense in my eyes the entire
24:41
Speaker 1: regular season. Now they go into the playoffs, they face
24:44
Speaker 1: some good defenses. And May has struggled, but he hasn't
24:49
Speaker 1: to do much because the offenses they've faced have been compromised.
24:52
Speaker 1: And then they get the ACE Championship game against a
24:54
Speaker 1: backup quarterback, and you get the Texans with all their
24:57
Speaker 1: injuries and their offensive line injuries and Stroud just being a disaster.
25:01
Speaker 1: Herbert was a disaster and their offensive line wasn't a
25:03
Speaker 1: full strength. So still, like the Act, the number of
25:07
Speaker 1: like real data points against a real team are lacking.
25:11
Speaker 2: Now.
25:11
Speaker 1: You do have to give them credit for like blowing
25:13
Speaker 1: out of the teams during the regular season. But the
25:17
Speaker 1: thing that I worry about most with the Patriots is
25:21
Speaker 1: because I do kind of like the under here. I
25:23
Speaker 1: think this will be a lower scoring game. I do
25:25
Speaker 1: think both teams are gonna come out and these and
25:27
Speaker 1: Super Bowls historically have started off really slow. And I
25:31
Speaker 1: used to be a total of forty five and a
25:34
Speaker 1: half forty six of where it's at now. Used to
25:36
Speaker 1: be able to get like ten under ten. I would
25:39
Speaker 1: always play under ten under ten and a half in
25:40
Speaker 1: the first quarter. It hit for years, but now they
25:43
Speaker 1: books are keen to it. I think the first quarter
25:45
Speaker 1: total is like eight and a half, But if you
25:47
Speaker 1: go back historically, I think the first quarters of average
25:49
Speaker 1: like six or seven points over a long stretch. There
25:52
Speaker 1: are so many that just are three nothings zero zero
25:54
Speaker 1: seven zero. So I think you know you have Drake
25:58
Speaker 1: May who had fumble issues, You've had Sam Darnold was
26:03
Speaker 1: a turnover issues in the past. Both teams, I think
26:05
Speaker 1: trust their defenses, so I could see both coming out
26:09
Speaker 1: and just feeling the game out, not wanting to make
26:13
Speaker 1: a mistake right, and then it could potentially open up more,
26:18
Speaker 1: you know, and if one of these teams has to
26:19
Speaker 1: play from way behind, that's when I would worry more
26:21
Speaker 1: about turnovers. But I do think this could start slow,
26:24
Speaker 1: and I think this will be like a field position battle.
26:27
Speaker 1: I think both defensive staffs will have a really good
26:29
Speaker 1: game plan. And I do the big my biggest concern
26:34
Speaker 1: for the Patriots, So like what I do trust for
26:36
Speaker 1: both of these teams. Run defenses are very good. I
26:40
Speaker 1: mentioned before the Patriots at full strength, their run defense
26:42
Speaker 1: is legit. They had a little down tick late in
26:46
Speaker 1: the season when Milton Williams was hurt Tonga their nose tackle,
26:49
Speaker 1: they had linebacker injuries, but when they've been at full strength,
26:52
Speaker 1: they've been a lead against the run and throughout the
26:55
Speaker 1: play Milton Williams.
26:56
Speaker 2: Remember they got like, damn they gave him twenty four
26:58
Speaker 2: million dollars a year. I mean he's been really good
27:00
Speaker 2: for him when he's been on the field.
27:02
Speaker 1: Yes, Yeah, he's been a difference maker. And the Seahawks
27:05
Speaker 1: run defense is historically good. So I don't think either
27:11
Speaker 1: team's gonna have much success running the ball. So then
27:14
Speaker 1: it's gonna come down to Donald. So I think there's
27:17
Speaker 1: gonna be some known passing situations to the Patriots Blitz.
27:20
Speaker 1: They've been blitzing at like forty forty five percent, really
27:23
Speaker 1: high over past four games, way higher than they have
27:27
Speaker 1: all regular season. Now you were playing in the playoffs,
27:30
Speaker 1: you know, backup quarterback the Chargers ridiculous horrible offensive line.
27:35
Speaker 1: The Texans, you know, Shroud struggles against the Blitz, they
27:38
Speaker 1: had offensive line injuries. Do they do that here? Donald's
27:41
Speaker 1: been pretty good against the Blitz. I don't know how
27:42
Speaker 1: do they handle JSN. But this is gonna come down
27:45
Speaker 1: to each quarterback because I don't think either running game
27:48
Speaker 1: is going to consistently move the ball. And what my
27:52
Speaker 1: biggest concern for the Patriots is their offensive line and
27:58
Speaker 1: how it will hold up against the Seahawk defense. And
28:01
Speaker 1: then may going up against whatever McDonald has cooked up.
28:04
Speaker 1: But whenever the Patriots have faced a defensive line that
28:07
Speaker 1: can get pressure without blitz and they've struggled, especially in
28:10
Speaker 1: the left side. And is that when the turnovers come,
28:14
Speaker 1: that's when seat the Seahawks can start smelling blood. And
28:18
Speaker 1: that that's my biggest concern for the Patriots is how
28:21
Speaker 1: does their offensive line hold up and then can can
28:24
Speaker 1: may avoid mistakes, but if the Patriots can can get
28:26
Speaker 1: out to a lead, you know, and then use their
28:30
Speaker 1: different They stunt a lot, which is given the Seattle
28:33
Speaker 1: offensive line some issues this year. But if they can,
28:36
Speaker 1: like time, some blitzes, you know, force, I would just
28:40
Speaker 1: take jess n Away, force darnaldt some throws. I think
28:42
Speaker 1: that's their path in a lower scoring game. One other
28:47
Speaker 1: thing I'll mention is special teams big advantage for Seattle,
28:51
Speaker 1: New England. Special teams aren't bad. They're not elite, you know,
28:54
Speaker 1: you have Patriots have an elite punt returner in Jones.
28:58
Speaker 1: Their punter's been out hit a bad game last week,
29:00
Speaker 1: but it's Barrenger has been been decent school or they
29:03
Speaker 1: have some good cover guys. But the Seawks special teams
29:06
Speaker 1: is probably the best in the league. We saw mentioned
29:09
Speaker 1: that Rams game. We know all year they've had special
29:13
Speaker 1: teams plays that have swung games, so that could be
29:16
Speaker 1: the difference in if it's a competitive game. Just the
29:20
Speaker 1: reliability and playmaking of Seattle Special teams. So I'll stop
29:27
Speaker 1: rambling for now. Those are some of my thoughts.
29:36
Speaker 2: Today's show is brought to you by a presenting sponsor,
29:38
Speaker 2: hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. It's the Big Game week Baby.
29:43
Speaker 2: On hard Rock Bet, Seattle is a four and a
29:46
Speaker 2: half point favorite over the Patriots for games like this.
29:50
Speaker 2: Basic bets do not cover. Hard Rock Bet is low
29:53
Speaker 2: to with special props you can't find the rest of
29:55
Speaker 2: the year opening kip touchback, all off the wall bets
30:00
Speaker 2: that make every snap that much better. If you haven't
30:03
Speaker 2: signed up for hard Rock Bet, there's never been a
30:05
Speaker 2: better time. New sign ups can double their winnings on
30:08
Speaker 2: their first bet max fifty dollars. That's right. If you
30:11
Speaker 2: would have won one hundred bucks on your bet, make
30:15
Speaker 2: that two hundred plus. You won't want to miss hard
30:18
Speaker 2: Rock Bets seven million dollar big game party. Place a
30:21
Speaker 2: ten dollars big game parlay and you'll get a share
30:24
Speaker 2: of seven million in bonus bets. How do you beat that?
30:27
Speaker 2: And if you're in Florida or Jersey, the Big Game
30:29
Speaker 2: energy doesn't just live on the app. Head of the
30:32
Speaker 2: hard Rock Casino for drawings, giveaways, and all the excitement
30:36
Speaker 2: leading up to kickoff. Big Game Week is also the
30:39
Speaker 2: best time to be a hard rock VIP. Hard Rock
30:41
Speaker 2: Bet is rolling out the red carpet first MPPs, private jet,
30:45
Speaker 2: five star hotels, big game tickets and more. Other VIPs
30:48
Speaker 2: can attend, invite only watch parties, special guests, high end food,
30:52
Speaker 2: and tons of exclusive merchion. That's right, hard Rock Bet.
30:56
Speaker 2: Download the hard Rock Bet app and make your first
31:00
Speaker 2: today payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered
31:03
Speaker 2: by Seminal Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by Seminal
31:07
Speaker 2: hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states, you must
31:11
Speaker 2: be twenty one plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Jersey, Ohio,
31:17
Speaker 2: Tennessee and Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned
31:22
Speaker 2: about gambling in Florida, call one eight three three play Wise.
31:27
Speaker 2: In Indiana. If you are someone you know has a
31:30
Speaker 2: gambling problem and wants help. Call one eight hundred and
31:35
Speaker 2: nine with it gambling problem, Call one hundred gambler Arizona, Colorado, Illinois,
31:40
Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. The hard Rock Bet has
31:51
Speaker 2: this pick six plus six fifty. Could be either quarterback,
31:53
Speaker 2: I mean both these quarterbacks have shown they can't turn
31:57
Speaker 2: it over. Drake May's got a bunch of turnovers this playoff.
32:00
Speaker 2: Darnold led the league during the season. You got two
32:03
Speaker 2: defenses that are just gonna be throwing fucking curveballs left
32:05
Speaker 2: and right, especially early in the game. And then if
32:08
Speaker 2: someone's down, you just got to force it to me
32:11
Speaker 2: that that that one's that one's tasty. I'm definitely taking that.
32:16
Speaker 2: A couple of years ago, famously on this podcast, you
32:19
Speaker 2: had a Niners Chiefs overtime what was it ten to
32:22
Speaker 2: one just for.
32:23
Speaker 1: The but the bet I really wanted to win was
32:25
Speaker 1: double overtime, one hundred to one, and it was one second,
32:33
Speaker 1: one second away. If the play clock. I will never
32:35
Speaker 1: forget this. I was going to room about the play
32:37
Speaker 1: clock was set one second below the game clock, and
32:43
Speaker 1: I'm convinced that if it was reversed, the Chiefs would
32:48
Speaker 1: have let it run down and uh gone to the
32:53
Speaker 1: second overtime and Ryan will play the I believe that.
32:58
Speaker 2: In a context you bet one hundred on one hundred
33:00
Speaker 2: to one that pays ten k.
33:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, and yeah it was one second away. That was
33:06
Speaker 1: But yeah, overtime was nice, but the double overtime would
33:10
Speaker 1: have been awesome. The I believe if it goes this
33:16
Speaker 1: is never gonna happen though, But in triple overtime, I
33:22
Speaker 1: think if it goes a triple done, then they kick
33:23
Speaker 1: off again like starts over. I don't know, I doubt
33:26
Speaker 1: will ever see that. So yeah, I don't mind that problem.
33:31
Speaker 1: My only concern would be May is May's turnovers fumbles,
33:34
Speaker 1: because that's what's what's plagued him in the playoffs. Like
33:36
Speaker 1: are his turnovers the strip variety?
33:39
Speaker 2: But yeah, because getting fucking warked.
33:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's how the Patriots managed that. It's gonna be
33:46
Speaker 1: really interesting. I do think one of the avenues to
33:49
Speaker 1: do so. One of my favorite props are Hunter Henry
33:53
Speaker 1: related I've played in like over catches, over receiving yards,
33:55
Speaker 1: over longest catch over seventeen and a half yards up
34:00
Speaker 1: the seat. Like the Seahawks. By design, they're one of
34:03
Speaker 1: the worst defense in the league against tight ends, and
34:06
Speaker 1: part of that's by design. You know, they kind of
34:09
Speaker 1: funnel things to tight on. This could change. McDonald could say, like, look,
34:12
Speaker 1: we're taking away enery, like we don't think their receivers
34:15
Speaker 1: can beat us. Maybe they play more man than zone.
34:20
Speaker 1: They they switched up last week, play a little bit
34:22
Speaker 1: more man than usual. But they might so he might
34:25
Speaker 1: maybe focus more. But the Seahawks defense, they allow you
34:30
Speaker 1: to throw short passes, throw to the tight ends because
34:34
Speaker 1: they want They're they're making you drive the field. Against
34:37
Speaker 1: that elite defense, it's going to stop the run, getting
34:39
Speaker 1: a third and long get pressure can cover the receivers.
34:43
Speaker 1: They want to take away the explosive play, force you
34:46
Speaker 1: to go all the way down the field on a
34:47
Speaker 1: you know, thirteen to fourteen play drive and score on
34:49
Speaker 1: that defense. And so tight ends have had huge days.
34:56
Speaker 1: And Hunter Enry the last year against this Seahawks defense
35:00
Speaker 1: is McDonald defense. I wasn't his McDonald didn't have all
35:02
Speaker 1: of his pieces yet, but he had, but I think
35:04
Speaker 1: nine catches for one hundred and eight yards or something
35:06
Speaker 1: in the regular season. So I think that the one
35:10
Speaker 1: of the ways that you you know, number one May
35:13
Speaker 1: is going to be under fire, under pressure, so that
35:16
Speaker 1: safety valve. I think there's gonna be more design throws
35:19
Speaker 1: for Henry. The Siaoks also don't blitz a ton, so
35:21
Speaker 1: you don't need, you know, the protect in there, the
35:24
Speaker 1: protection in there as much. So I think Henry will
35:27
Speaker 1: have a pretty big day and he'll have a big, big,
35:30
Speaker 1: long catch up the seam at one point. So I
35:34
Speaker 1: like some some Henry props, But UH be curious to
35:37
Speaker 1: see what McDaniel does to get May going avoid that pressure.
35:44
Speaker 1: What does the screen game look like? But I think
35:47
Speaker 1: the tight ends are gonna because I just I don't
35:50
Speaker 1: know if the Patriots receivers can consistently get separation on
35:56
Speaker 1: a down by down basis against this Seattle secondary. This
36:00
Speaker 1: isn't Nikkoua and Adams out there.
36:04
Speaker 2: Well, Booty was one because they're gonna have to take
36:07
Speaker 2: some shots. It's kind of how they've operated right offensively.
36:10
Speaker 2: And he's a he's a good deep ball thrower.
36:12
Speaker 1: I know.
36:12
Speaker 2: I don't hold the Denver game against him. When it
36:14
Speaker 2: was fucking he threw one out route there was that
36:16
Speaker 2: looked like you know, Trey Lance or something, and then
36:19
Speaker 2: they showed the behind view and the wind. It looked
36:22
Speaker 2: like ninety miles an hour, snow going everywhere. It's like
36:25
Speaker 2: you can't complete anything. I don't know if you saw
36:28
Speaker 2: that clip where he looks at Josh, He's like, this
36:30
Speaker 2: is impossible. Yeah, he's he's been complaining. He's just saying, like,
36:34
Speaker 2: what are we supposed to do? That game was a joke,
36:38
Speaker 2: but you know, I do think you know, he's clearly
36:41
Speaker 2: he force fed him the ball. It didn't work in
36:43
Speaker 2: that game with Booty against Denver. He had six touchdowns
36:47
Speaker 2: this year. I listen, I put some of Pukah's production
36:51
Speaker 2: against Seattle. Feels like kind of shorter routes that he's
36:53
Speaker 2: taken after the catch. But I mean they they were
36:56
Speaker 2: going after him with those two guys, like you said,
36:58
Speaker 2: I mean, they're better than Booty. He clearly feels like
37:01
Speaker 2: Drake likes him and does Patriots like him? And plus
37:04
Speaker 2: three twenty five. I looked on hard Rock bet today.
37:07
Speaker 2: It's pretty good odds for a guy that you know
37:10
Speaker 2: they're going to target down the field. Well, the works
37:13
Speaker 2: or not is yet to be seen.
37:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's that's a matchup to watch. Seattle's
37:19
Speaker 1: you know, secondary not letting up explosives against Drake May, who,
37:24
Speaker 1: no question as one of the best deep balls in
37:26
Speaker 1: the NFL pinpoint accuracy, throws a beautiful deep ball, and
37:31
Speaker 1: he's gonna take I mean all year, he will take
37:34
Speaker 1: his shots. Now, he got a little gun shy, and
37:38
Speaker 1: I think that the Patriots did that by design last
37:43
Speaker 1: week against you know, there was the weather, but even
37:46
Speaker 1: early I think they were like, look, we're playing jarrets
37:50
Speaker 1: that we're not losing this game. Like he saw some
37:52
Speaker 1: of the the third downs where they rolled him out
37:54
Speaker 1: and he just like threw it away runs on third
37:57
Speaker 1: and long. That's not gonna be the case here unless
37:59
Speaker 1: this is just like a you know, ten to seven
38:01
Speaker 1: game in the third or fourth quarter. So he's gonna
38:03
Speaker 1: take his shots here, and Booty is the most likely
38:10
Speaker 1: target to hit those big passes. So yeah, that I
38:15
Speaker 1: can see him having one or two big plays that
38:19
Speaker 1: end up in the end zone, because mate, he's gonna have.
38:23
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be able to consistently throw the ball,
38:28
Speaker 1: at least I don't think so consistently. Just move the
38:31
Speaker 1: chains by throwing short to intermediate passes against this defense
38:35
Speaker 1: with their receivers, they're gonna have to pick up enough
38:40
Speaker 1: plays of the chunk variety to just avoid having to
38:46
Speaker 1: gruelingly go down the field against the Seattle defense. So yeah,
38:50
Speaker 1: Booty would definitely be the best candidate for that, So
38:53
Speaker 1: I don't mind that. Look, I also one crack one
38:57
Speaker 1: that I don't know. I've only seen it at one
38:59
Speaker 1: book out there. It'll be more widely available. I like
39:04
Speaker 1: this is way in the weeds, but I like Seattle
39:08
Speaker 1: over four and a half players to have a rush attempt.
39:14
Speaker 1: So you're gonna have Kenneth Walker, Sam Polani their backup
39:19
Speaker 1: will get a carry. Darnold will have at least one
39:23
Speaker 1: or he should why not, but you know he usually
39:26
Speaker 1: has a couple. You can have a need to. I
39:29
Speaker 1: think they're gonna get one of their receivers. This is
39:31
Speaker 1: when you get creative. So like I imagine, Shaheed will
39:34
Speaker 1: probably get an end a round or some type of carry,
39:38
Speaker 1: and then you're gonna have a j Barner will most
39:43
Speaker 1: likely be doing their their sneaks. And this is you
39:46
Speaker 1: don't not use him here in the Super Bowl when
39:48
Speaker 1: it's third and one, fourth and one, you're they use
39:50
Speaker 1: him for the touch push here. So and barn is
39:54
Speaker 1: a sneaky touchdown bet because of that. Yeah, because if
39:58
Speaker 1: they're at the one Patriots run, he's been really good.
40:04
Speaker 1: I imagine Barner will have a chance, and we'll have
40:08
Speaker 1: a chance in the passing game too. The Patriots one
40:11
Speaker 1: of their weaknesses by far as their linebacker's ability to
40:16
Speaker 1: their ability to cover in space. So Barner in the
40:19
Speaker 1: red zone, you never know what the Seattle tight ends
40:22
Speaker 1: and a Royal and who's oh they're gonna be throwing to.
40:25
Speaker 1: But Barner I think you know all year he's been
40:30
Speaker 1: one of Donald's favorite red zone targets and then he
40:33
Speaker 1: also could get in via sneak So I like him
40:37
Speaker 1: as a as a touchdown. Look, if you're looking for
40:40
Speaker 1: someone that's not the most obvious guy.
40:43
Speaker 2: If I would have told you like three years ago
40:45
Speaker 2: that going into a super Bowl this team was the
40:48
Speaker 2: number one seed, they just took out their two rivals
40:51
Speaker 2: and Sam Donald is the heavy favorite to be the
40:54
Speaker 2: Super Bowl MVP, how do people would have believed me?
40:58
Speaker 1: Yeah? I would have laughed in your face. I mean,
41:01
Speaker 1: think about saying two three years ago, Sam Donald will
41:07
Speaker 1: be the MVP favorite in the Super Bowl against the Patriots. Like,
41:10
Speaker 1: think about where the Patriots were a couple of years ago.
41:13
Speaker 1: Like this is a crazy, crazy super Bowl. I know
41:17
Speaker 1: it's the Patriots, but like they were, and we get
41:21
Speaker 1: the Patriots again. But it's basically been like the Chiefs,
41:25
Speaker 1: and we have had a lot of the Chiefs and
41:26
Speaker 1: Eagles and forty nine ers, Like this is a pretty
41:29
Speaker 1: shocking super Bowl result with Sam Donald and how far
41:34
Speaker 1: he's come now, A lot of that's on the defense,
41:38
Speaker 1: but he's certainly played well and last week, I mean
41:43
Speaker 1: he went throw for throw with Donald. Because the Rams
41:48
Speaker 1: offense clearly has is the kryptonite for Seattle's defense, and
41:56
Speaker 1: usually like it doesn't sometimes when you just have elite,
41:59
Speaker 1: elite receivers, you know, Hall of Fame receivers, and a
42:02
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame quarterback and a you know, elite play caller,
42:07
Speaker 1: there's no defense for that, right, Like if you're just
42:10
Speaker 1: making throw elite throws and guys you can't you can't
42:13
Speaker 1: cover Nikoua and Adams and they're gonna make contested catches.
42:17
Speaker 1: Can may get on a hot streak like that, maybe,
42:21
Speaker 1: but he doesn't have the offensive line that the Rams do,
42:23
Speaker 1: and he doesn't have the receivers, and he's nowhere close
42:27
Speaker 1: to his experienced as Stafford. So it's hard to see
42:32
Speaker 1: the Patriots doing what the Rams did last week. So
42:39
Speaker 1: the Patriots that have to win this game, I would
42:42
Speaker 1: say twenty to seventeen. That has to be there.
42:47
Speaker 2: Are you taking the Pats and the Boys?
42:49
Speaker 1: I don't know. I thought like three and a half
42:52
Speaker 1: was fair. I mean that was the look aheadline. It's
42:56
Speaker 1: not the most efficient line. Like if this got the six,
42:59
Speaker 1: I don't think. Well it got to like five, I
43:01
Speaker 1: was waiting. I definitely would have bet the Pats, but
43:05
Speaker 1: you know, it got to it was at three and
43:07
Speaker 1: a half. The Patriots won. They didn't have to do anything. So,
43:10
Speaker 1: like I didn't take too much from that game last
43:12
Speaker 1: week in the Blizzard and the Seahawks, It's not like
43:15
Speaker 1: I upgraded them a ton. I mean that was a
43:17
Speaker 1: coin flip game. Yeah, I mean they were out game
43:20
Speaker 1: four eighty to three ninety. They gave up eight point
43:23
Speaker 1: three yards per play, only average six Like the Rams
43:26
Speaker 1: arguably were better on the play by places. They muffed
43:27
Speaker 1: the punt, I got stopped on fourth down, and they
43:31
Speaker 1: sold a chance to win it. Their special teams really
43:33
Speaker 1: let them down. And so yeah, it's not like I
43:40
Speaker 1: upgraded the Seahawks a ton from that game, so I thought,
43:43
Speaker 1: like three and a half will be fair. But again,
43:45
Speaker 1: I just don't have that much confidence in that where
43:49
Speaker 1: I rate the Patriots because, like the the amount of
43:53
Speaker 1: real data points I have with this team is so small,
43:55
Speaker 1: and I do have that concern that I know they're
43:57
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to run it, or at least
43:58
Speaker 1: I g I feel strongly that they won't be able to.
44:02
Speaker 1: And then I don't know how the receivers are going
44:04
Speaker 1: to get separation consistently. And then I don't know how
44:08
Speaker 1: May is not going to be pressured consistently on known
44:11
Speaker 1: passing downs and give McDonald with two weeks to prepare.
44:15
Speaker 1: So it's that all leads me to believe it's gonna
44:18
Speaker 1: be a tough sledding for the Patriots offense. Now can
44:20
Speaker 1: their defense? I think their defense can keep them in
44:23
Speaker 1: this game, right two weeks to prepare for this staff,
44:26
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna just take away Jess and at
44:28
Speaker 1: least I think that's what they're gonna do. Their Rundy's good.
44:31
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna make it tough. Their stunts, their
44:34
Speaker 1: blitz packages can maybe give Donald some issues. So I
44:37
Speaker 1: think their defense keeping them. So my my strongest play
44:41
Speaker 1: is probably under but as a result of I think
44:43
Speaker 1: it's lower scoring than I would lean towards the dog
44:46
Speaker 1: a bit more. But I also worried about special teams because
44:50
Speaker 1: that's that could swing it in Seattle's favor too. But
44:53
Speaker 1: it's just crazy that the Patriots are here and it's like,
44:58
Speaker 1: what complete team do they play?
45:01
Speaker 2: If they were to pull off this upset and win,
45:04
Speaker 2: I think Bill's fans wouldn't even would be just they
45:07
Speaker 2: might just quit football. It'd be tough that that that one.
45:11
Speaker 2: I think it would hurt them the most.
45:13
Speaker 1: You know, it would hurt Raidings fans at the Seahawks
45:15
Speaker 1: win mc donald, it's the one that got away.
45:18
Speaker 2: Do you think that is a little I was watching
45:22
Speaker 2: some of the Mintor press conference today. He's not I
45:24
Speaker 2: wouldn't say, a big press conference guy. Not like he's
45:27
Speaker 2: dumb talking, But there's just I don't know, it's just yeah,
45:31
Speaker 2: it's not I'm not judging him on that moment. But
45:35
Speaker 2: Bowls last year, it's like, God, if they could do
45:37
Speaker 2: that over again, they just would have fired him and
45:39
Speaker 2: got with Liam. Do you think looking back they regret,
45:42
Speaker 2: like they were just in the AFC Championship game. But
45:45
Speaker 2: if they had to do over, would they have just
45:46
Speaker 2: fired John Horridball right then and hired Mike McDonald.
45:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. Uh yeah, it's it's it's unfortunate.
45:55
Speaker 2: Mintor could be like the light version of him. He's
45:57
Speaker 2: clearly pretty good.
45:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Mintor was a good high with McDonald
46:00
Speaker 1: obviously would have been the ideal choice. And that's what
46:04
Speaker 1: we've seen recently, like teams that are aggressive. I mean,
46:10
Speaker 1: look at these two teams right like they were. It
46:15
Speaker 1: was we brought in Vrabel and we got rid of
46:20
Speaker 1: Mayo right away. It was a disaster. Seahawks move on
46:25
Speaker 1: from Gino Smith and Pete Carroll and go get McDonald.
46:31
Speaker 1: Like a lot of people were shocked by. I thought
46:32
Speaker 1: it was the wrong move. But the whole NFL season
46:36
Speaker 1: was about coaching. The Jags rise with Liam Cohen and
46:42
Speaker 1: everywhere Liam Cohen's gone, team's gotten better. And then the
46:44
Speaker 1: Bucks their their offensive decline after Liam Cohen left, the
46:50
Speaker 1: Bears and Ben Johnson's impact and what he did, and
46:55
Speaker 1: then you have the Lions drop off after Ben Johnson left.
46:58
Speaker 1: So like the co coaching matters, coordinators matter, and you
47:03
Speaker 1: can drastically change the direction of your franchise with the
47:09
Speaker 1: right hire or you know, poison it for years to
47:13
Speaker 1: come with the wrong one, especially if you have an
47:17
Speaker 1: ownership group that isn't going to be aggressive and move
47:21
Speaker 1: on quickly. So yeah, I wish the Ravens have McDonald,
47:27
Speaker 1: but clearly the Seahawks benefited immensely and they're going to
47:31
Speaker 1: be a problem for years to come with him at
47:34
Speaker 1: the home.
47:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, they really are all right, fellas. Let's be real.
47:44
Speaker 2: Buying men's jewelry used to be a nightmare. It was
47:47
Speaker 2: low quality junk that snapped after a week. We've all
47:50
Speaker 2: been there. That's why I rock with GLD. They changed
47:54
Speaker 2: the game. Many of you have participated as well. You
47:58
Speaker 2: know that GLD uses real gold, none of that cheap stuff.
48:02
Speaker 2: Every single stone is meticulously handset, plus the proprietary production
48:07
Speaker 2: process make sure you're getting the highest quality jewelry possible.
48:11
Speaker 2: You can literally see and feel the difference, and listen,
48:15
Speaker 2: don't just take my word for it. Over two million
48:18
Speaker 2: customers and fifty thousand five star reviews back it up.
48:23
Speaker 2: Not to mention it's worn by some of the biggest
48:25
Speaker 2: names out there. Justin Bieber, Micah Parsons, Tyreek Hill, Malik Daghbors,
48:30
Speaker 2: and a ton more guys. The best part, every single
48:33
Speaker 2: piece is guaranteed for life. It's literally built to last
48:38
Speaker 2: that long for life. GLD has official collabs with the NFL,
48:42
Speaker 2: so you can get every NFL team on a pendant
48:45
Speaker 2: this season. They also have collabs with the NBA, the WNBA,
48:48
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball, NCAA, and many more. GLD can create
48:52
Speaker 2: fully customed pieces, so get whatever you want designed on
48:56
Speaker 2: one of your chains. Work hard and change the game.
48:59
Speaker 2: For a limited time only new customers are getting an
49:01
Speaker 2: insane deal. Use the code the number three and out
49:05
Speaker 2: to get fifty percent off at g l D dot com.
49:09
Speaker 2: That's fifty percent off with code three and out at
49:12
Speaker 2: g LD dot com. Well, Stuckey, huh, bittersweet time. We
49:23
Speaker 2: just got one game left and you get to gamble
49:26
Speaker 2: on college basketball, be gambling on golf, and we'll just
49:29
Speaker 2: try to get through. But it's you know you turn
49:30
Speaker 2: on TV at night. It's just I know you love
49:33
Speaker 2: college truths. There's not it's not no. I mean I
49:37
Speaker 2: tried to watch a little like sc was playing, was
49:40
Speaker 2: to Iowa or something else. It just didn't do much
49:42
Speaker 2: for me. I was like, I'm just gonna watch some
49:45
Speaker 2: fucking TV and go to bed.
49:47
Speaker 1: I will say, I, you know, I miss there's nothing
49:50
Speaker 1: like football. I miss it in the off season, but
49:53
Speaker 1: I I don't want football in the off season, so
49:56
Speaker 1: like I don't get into like I never got into
49:58
Speaker 1: any of the other leagues, or like the U football
50:02
Speaker 1: is like my it's it's meant to be from August
50:05
Speaker 1: to the super Bowl. But yeah, TV and weeknights and
50:09
Speaker 1: weekends just aren't the same without football.
50:13
Speaker 2: So gambling on the NBA I was watching the Lakers
50:17
Speaker 2: are now like forty. I'm like that sport. When I
50:20
Speaker 2: first really got into gambling, like consistently, probably mid twenty tens,
50:26
Speaker 2: used to be able to find certain teams, like the
50:28
Speaker 2: OKC Thunder with Durant and Russell I used to hammer
50:32
Speaker 2: their team overs and there were just some you could ride.
50:35
Speaker 2: And now the basketball is all over the place with
50:37
Speaker 2: three point shots, Like I can't even imagine gambling on
50:40
Speaker 2: this one. You got teams the tank, some teams don't
50:41
Speaker 2: even try. The good ones take nights off. It's you
50:44
Speaker 2: talk about a fall little sport. I mean, you got
50:46
Speaker 2: no clue what you're getting night tonight.
50:48
Speaker 1: I have no idea how people got the NBA. That's
50:51
Speaker 1: not my god, boss, anyone that wins money doing it.
50:55
Speaker 1: I wouldn't even know where to start.
50:57
Speaker 2: At least in college basketball. You know, both teams in
50:59
Speaker 2: theory are gonna try every night, right.
51:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, there's no like load management and no and tanking.
51:08
Speaker 1: But but the sport's changing. I mean the sport, like
51:10
Speaker 1: college football is definitely changing the top. So like what's
51:14
Speaker 1: happening in college troble is happening in college basketball. There's
51:17
Speaker 1: because of nil, because of the portal, the top of
51:23
Speaker 1: the sport is separating itself from the rest. Now there
51:28
Speaker 1: might be there's probably gonna be more parody at the top, right,
51:32
Speaker 1: and you're gonna have like in college football, there's you know,
51:34
Speaker 1: next year, if you ask me right now, like who
51:36
Speaker 1: could win the national title? And there's still so much
51:39
Speaker 1: to be determined in the portal and recruiting and a
51:43
Speaker 1: lot of other things. But I would probably list eight
51:46
Speaker 1: to ten teams. Yeah that I wouldn't be shocked. Five
51:49
Speaker 1: years ago, you know, it was like two to three
51:52
Speaker 1: teams that I would say. So there's more parody at
51:55
Speaker 1: the top, more diversity. I mean, look, Indiana just want
51:58
Speaker 1: a championship, but after that, the drop off is massive
52:04
Speaker 1: because the money difference, because any player that's worth anything
52:07
Speaker 1: in these lower conferences is moving up. The coaches too
52:10
Speaker 1: are moving up. So like, what's going to happen, I
52:15
Speaker 1: think is and it sucks. My first love is March
52:20
Speaker 1: Madness when I was a little kid in the NCAA tournament.
52:22
Speaker 1: There's just gonna be fewer upsets, fewer Cinderella stores. We
52:25
Speaker 1: saw that last year. I think that's probably going to
52:27
Speaker 1: be a trend and it's just going to be harder
52:31
Speaker 1: to get Cinderella stores because the gap is growing. I mean,
52:35
Speaker 1: if you just look at the top ten, the AP
52:38
Speaker 1: top ten after Week thirteen, which was this Monday, those
52:44
Speaker 1: ten teams had thirteen total losses. To put that into perspective,
52:50
Speaker 1: you know, two years ago this same time frame, the
52:53
Speaker 1: top ten had thirty four. The previous record was twenty one,
52:58
Speaker 1: so I mean they only had thirty. Like, there's just
53:01
Speaker 1: not as many upsets.
53:02
Speaker 2: Well, Arizona hasn't lost.
53:03
Speaker 1: Right, Arizona's undefeated.
53:05
Speaker 2: Nebraska just lost.
53:07
Speaker 1: Nebraska just lost to Michigan. Who's you know, a top
53:09
Speaker 1: five team.
53:11
Speaker 2: They have like two they have one loss, yeah, which
53:15
Speaker 2: is unheard of, Like good if you finish the season
53:17
Speaker 2: with five or six losses, right.
53:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, so yeah, it's it's unprecedented. How good the top
53:26
Speaker 1: of the sport is. So yeah, there's just fewer upsets.
53:29
Speaker 1: I'm having to adjust because it's like a different sport
53:32
Speaker 1: college football, college basketball. There, it's it's ever changing and
53:36
Speaker 1: it's it's a whole different world. But uh, one mid
53:39
Speaker 1: major that could make a run Saint Louis. I took
53:41
Speaker 1: a flyer and then to make the Final four. They're
53:43
Speaker 1: like a team with shooters all over, very well coached.
53:45
Speaker 2: Say that again, you kind of broke out on me.
53:47
Speaker 2: The team you just listened.
53:48
Speaker 1: Saint Louis the Billikins there, they have one loss. They
53:51
Speaker 1: lost one game to Stanford on like a crazy buzzer beater.
53:53
Speaker 1: But they have one of the best coaches in the country.
53:55
Speaker 1: They have like five guys who shoot forty percent from three.
53:58
Speaker 1: They run beautiful offense. Like their team. I could give
54:01
Speaker 1: anyone problems that make it. They can't like win it all,
54:03
Speaker 1: but they could make like a final four. I took
54:05
Speaker 1: a flyer and then to make the Final four, and
54:07
Speaker 1: then the other storyline with college basketball real quick, it
54:09
Speaker 1: is just a freshman this year. The freshmen are outstanding.
54:11
Speaker 1: My favorite to watch when he's healthy. He's dealt with
54:14
Speaker 1: a lot of injury issues. But Darren Peterson out of Kansas,
54:17
Speaker 1: I took a flyer in Kansas to make the Final Four.
54:20
Speaker 1: When he's healthy, he looks. He reminds me of like
54:21
Speaker 1: Kobe if Kobe went to college. He is one of
54:25
Speaker 1: the smoothest players that I've seen on the offensive end
54:28
Speaker 1: in college, especially for a freshman a long time. But
54:30
Speaker 1: the freshman boozer, the bands of Peters, and they might
54:33
Speaker 1: be the top three in the draft. Then you might
54:34
Speaker 1: get you know, Caleb Wilson out of North con The
54:36
Speaker 1: top five guys might be freshmen. Freshmen are dominating. He
54:40
Speaker 1: had this kid Waggler from Illinois dropped forty six at
54:44
Speaker 1: Purdue last weekend. Flemings from Houston at forty two last weekend.
54:50
Speaker 1: I mean, there are so many good freshmen. That's another
54:52
Speaker 1: storyline to watch. But yeah, not the same without football.
54:55
Speaker 1: I appreciate you having me on all year. Can't wait
54:59
Speaker 1: to do it again and next year.
55:01
Speaker 2: Brother, Well, enjoy being a dad and you enjoy life
55:05
Speaker 2: and We'll just keep on, We'll just keep cryding day
55:08
Speaker 2: by day, because that's you know, when you become a dad,
55:10
Speaker 2: that dad life is just one foot in front of
55:12
Speaker 2: I feel like Belichick just onto the next day, on too,
55:14
Speaker 2: the next day.
55:14
Speaker 1: We're onto Cincinnati.
55:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, Bro, I'll talk to you soon. Enjoy the
55:19
Speaker 2: super Bowl, be you too.
55:20
Speaker 1: Cheers the volume