Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 4 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter

Transcript

NFL Week 4 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, who we're heading in a week
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: four uh. Later on in the show, Darren Ravelle is
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: going to join me along with Simon Hunter, our professional
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: betting friend who was guiding us through the one point
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: five million Westgate Las Vegas super Contest, in which we
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: went four and one this past week. Um, we are
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: currently UH ten and five after opening the first two
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: weeks six and two, so I haven't checked the standings
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: where Team Action. You'll be able to check us out
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: wherever you can find these super contest standings, But all
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I know is that ten and five is a pretty
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: good start. Also on the show, joining me as he
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: does every week, Bob Scucci, bookmaker scooch, I know you're
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: feeling bad. I didn't get to finish the intro. We
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: were so excited to play the music. Bob scoochy bookmaker
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: at the Board Gaming and all the BOYD gaming books
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: throughout the worldwide of this country. Did that music makes
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: feel better? It does? Actually, it's very uplifting. I was
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: in low morale but not feeling a little onto the
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: under the weather, but I hear that music and I
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: just get pumped up. Listen, anybody who wants to hear
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Scooch and I talk like in a real time in
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: advance of the games, you gotta listen to us on
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Radio dot Com on Sunday Sundays at noon Eastern. It
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: is an exciting show. And I say that with all
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: sincerity and genuineness because that's when the lines are moving,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: and so in real time, Scooch is having to change lines.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Scooch has bets coming in for ten thousand, twenty thousand,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: thirty dollars real liabilities, and we're getting it all as
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: it's happening on a show that is incredibly exciting as
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: we talk about each game much like we do here,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: only like if you were thinking about making your bet,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: then is when you want to make your bets. So
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: please listen to that Radio dot Com Sundays at noon.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Like I said later in the show, Darren and Simon
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: joining me, are you feeling better because the Jets covered
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: against the Patriots with two non offensive touchdowns this past
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: week and week three when they were twenty three point underdogs.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: You have no idea, you know, we talked about it
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: last week. I'll just one game and then actually, just
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: a couple of plays can turn around your entire day.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: And I can't emphasize enough. It wasn't a great day
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: for most bookmakers in Vegas, but had the Patriots covered,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: it would have been another disaster. So two weeks in
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: a row. Uh, the week before last was when the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Cardinals covered against the Ravens, and that saved our day.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: The Jets single handedly saved our day yesterday or Sunday,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: I should say, And uh, I'm very thankful for that
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: because their offense, I have never seen so many batted
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: down passes. I had no confidence that they that that
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: that the football would not even cross the line of
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: scrimmage when when Falk went back to throw. Yeah, it
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: was pretty stunning. But I'm surprised he you say that
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: you needed the Jet the Patriots so badly. Obviously that
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: killed every parley, right, like that was all your liability.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: But you know, the afternoon was so full of upsets.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Every single underdog covered in the afternoon. I'm just surprised
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: that like that didn't make your day. Um, it helped,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: It helped, having you know, a winning day. We had
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: a small winning day, but we just couldn't overcome the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: all the big parlay's in the morning. I mean that
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys was just uh, that was you know, one
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: of the one of the worst. Uh. The Lion game
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: was a big straight back game. So it was one
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: of those days. And I often talk about we need
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: like a combination of games. We don't want all underdogs
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: to to cover. We don't want all favorites to cover.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: We want a good fifty fifty mix. And we also
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: want maybe half of the big street back games to
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: lose and knock out a couple of big parlay games.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: It has to fall like just perfect. And I'll tell
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: you another big thing this past weekend that made the
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: day not so great is the teasers covered. So the
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: teasers almost both sides. Like you take the Dallas uh
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Miami game and the Jets Patriots game, it didn't matter
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: what side you tease, you won. So it was one
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: of those weeks where, uh, just just play a teaser
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: or teaser card and you're gonna be cashing. All right,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So listen, now we're in the week four. Boy, it's
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: already going by in a freaking blur, right, it really is. Yeah,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: I need NHL season to last lea six months. I
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: don't know if I could last that long. It's such
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: a you're at such a high fever pitch for the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: whole season. I don't know if I could sustain that long.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: It's too good for business. Everyone should download the Action
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Network app, the free Action Network app, stay up to date,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: get the latest lines, get betting percentages, money percentages, all
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: that good stuff. Everything I'm talking about. When I talk
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: about percentages, I'm talking about from the Action Network app,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: which you can get you can downloaded for free. First
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: game on the board, so interesting. Baltimore now hosting Cleveland.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is showing strong against Kansas City in the way
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: they stuck with it. Cleveland struggling. What was this line?
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: What was the look aheadline for this game, meaning the
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: line that you guys had set sort of a week
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: and a half or two weeks ago. Even Christmahl was
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: like four and a half, It might have be even something. Yeah,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: so there was a big adjustment four and a half.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: The Ravens fed by four and a half. So now
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: the Ravens are They're power rating has moved them up.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: A combination of their power rating going up in Cleveland's
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: going down as a combination of three points. You're at
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: seven and a half right now. We actually went to seven,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: but we're getting all Ravens money, So I would imagine
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna actually go as I'm looking at
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: this seven minus twenty. I often sometimes I don't see
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: them until we're actually talking about them, and then it
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: just makes perfect sense. So I'm gonna move this seven
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: minus twenty right now. Line change. We got a line change. Yeah,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: you know, the Ravens are just uh, they're impressing a
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: lot of a lot of the betters. And of course,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: like last week against the Chiefs, um that was a
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: big cover for them. Uh, that was actually a good
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: parlay game for us to everyone was was was on
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. So we're big, we're big Ravens fans. They
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: did as well last week. But but really, this, I mean,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: this offense is just really clicking. I mean, I'm not
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: going to put them anywhere on par with New England's
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: or Kansas City's, but they're they're able to make big plays,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: They're able to convert on third downs. Uh. The mar
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Jackson just looks very poise in the pocket. He needs
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: he runs when he has to. He he gets the
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: first downs uh so. Uh. And on the other hand,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: you know that the Browns that first game out of
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: the first couple of games out of the season, you know,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: but all the thoughts of maybe they just haven't gotten
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: their legs under them yet, and they had all high expectations.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're into week four and there's just no
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: sign yet of this Browns team being nearly as good
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: as most people talent with them Uh coming into the season. Yeah.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I faded the Browns this week. I had, I had
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: the Rands, and I felt I felt really good about that. Hey,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: I forgot the Thursday night game between the sputtering along
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles and the suddenly trendy to win the conference
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: and maybe the super Bowl. Green Bay Packers. What do
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: you open this game at? I know it's been pounded
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: on the Packers side a ton of money, ton of ts. Yeah.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Two weeks well, I mean Packers three and oh and
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: and they're drawing more and more money each week. Last
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: week against the Broncos, that was one of our big
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: parlay games too, and we're on the losing end of it.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I really, I really thought the Packers after two kind
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: of emotional big wins against the Bears and the Vikings
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: to open the season would have a little bit of
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: struggles covering a big number against the Broncos, but they did. So.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Now here we go again, the three going into this
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: game three and know we know all the money is
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Packers. I went to five and
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: a half. We opened four and a half on the game.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I went to five and a half off of almost
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: no money. I mean just basically just a couple of
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: thousand dollar bets. But I just, I just I could
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: see the trend, and we often talk about five being
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: a dead number anyway, so I just wanted to be
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: on the safe side. Go to five and a half
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: now and see if the sharp guys take it. If not,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: maybe now we can be at six by game time.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Did anybody take it? Not yet? No? I just went Actually,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: just before we came on the show, I just went
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: to five minutes pre show line change. Yeah, that was
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: pretty quick, right, it was. Yeah, this is a tough game.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not a buyer on either of these teams. I
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: might sit this one out. I mean I have to
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: do it. By the way, remind everybody about Project two
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: fifty six, in which I'm picking every game. Uh, eight
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: and eight this week needed strong showings on the primetime
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: games from the Rams and from the Bears to get
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: to eight and eight. It was a tough road. So
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm still like eleven games up on the year.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I think I'm I'm thirty and nineteen on the year
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: in picking every NFL games. That sounds right, thirty and yeah,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: thirty and nineteen, um, which is downright stunning. Scooch, That's
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: that's amazing. Yeah, as you know how I get that way.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I'm smart, Like I look at these lines, I see you,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I see Houston posted as a five point favorite, and
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking that's crazy. They should be a touchdown favorite.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: You know why, because Carolina. Carolina got lucky to get
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: healthy and have a quarterback who doesn't really played going
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: against Arizona. But Houston is a different team and Carolina's
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: defense is not the same defense that we thought it
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: was going to be. So Hi, I'll take the home
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: favorite on a dead number. Yeah, you know what, we
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: were looking at this one and we're kind of tossed
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: in the middle here, kind of in that dead zone,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: and uh, Houston has been kind of flying under the
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: radar with a lot of the betters. They're typically not
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: one of the most heavily beat games. Uh. Even last week, Uh,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: most people bet the Chargers in that one, and even
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: though we felt that Houston was a pretty live dog
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: in that one. So coming off of that game, I
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: do think we're gonna get quite quite a bit more
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Houston money. It's not really heavily bet right now, but
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: come come game Bay, it'll be the ones that is
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: in everyone's parlory. Here's another game. I think I might
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: go to five and a half. Maybe not right now
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: because we're not not getting that much action on it,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: but I could see this line going up much more
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: likely than going down. Very interesting team. You know, it's
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: like all year for the not just all year. Like
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the past two years, I have been on Houston in
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: every scenario, and for some reason this past weekend I
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: decided I was getting off Houston and that in Los
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Angeles the Chargers. That was a mistake. It was the
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: only game I lost in the super contest. That was
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: your one that when you went four and one, that
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: was your one loss. That was the one loss. Jeez,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: they knew. Ridiculous, just ridiculous. Uh. Here's an interesting one.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: They're all interesting it here's an especially interesting one. Kansas
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: City is a touchdown favorite on the Row Road at Detroit. Yeah,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: so here's one that you talked about. The look ahead
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: line was only about four and a half. And you
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: look at how I think we we dropped the ball
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: with the Lions. Uh, Lion against the Eagles last week.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: We opened the Eagles seven, seven and a half. That
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: line went down to four and a half. I mean
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: largely because Alston Jeffrey was out Sean Jackson, So I
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: mean there was injuries on the Eagle side that caused
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: that line move, but even still, there was more than
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: just the players being out that the sharp guys saw
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of value on the Lions and we just
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: didn't have them rated high enough. So going into this
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: game again, uh, this line is inflated and the sharp
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: guys took advantage of it. We hung Uh, we hung
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: six and a half uh and came and and immediately
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: took took Lions action. We went down to six. It's
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: one of our most heavily bet straight bet games. But
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: we realize, no matter how much straight that money we
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: take on the Lions, we're still going to need the
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Lions because the parlays. It will be our biggest parlay game.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: It will be Patriots and Chiefs on every parlay ticket.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: So realizing that that's why the line is inflated to six,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: but it really should be closer to four and a half.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Oh wow that see. So what you're saying to me
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: is there's opportunity on the Lions. Absolutely. I mean if
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: there's value here, I mean, as a the wise guy
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: that you are, I would see some value on the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Lions here. Well, what worries me is that, how do
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I bet against Kansas City? Well, I mean they're vulnerable.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I mean you saw that. I mean the the Ravens.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: The Ravens kind of backdoor covered the last week. So
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I mean they're they're not infallible. But we talked about
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: that oftense so many time times. I've never seen such
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: an explosive offense for the big play. I mean, Patriots
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: are explosive in other ways, but they do it with
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of the shorter passes and just more efficiency. Uh.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs, if you turn away to get a cup
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: of coffee, they might score fourteen on you. You you
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: walk away, you come back, It's like, what what just happened.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: I've never seen a team with the ability to strike
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: so quickly with the big play. Uh, so many weapons
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: even with injury if they still have and Mahomes, I mean,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: people are talking about that he has the best arm
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: in NFL history, not just in the NFL today, So
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: that's quite a statement. And if you've seen him make
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: these plays where he's falling away on his heels and
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: he's able to throw the bowl, you know, a bull
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: at forty yards down the field, you would agree with it.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: So stuff to bet against this team, I agree, Scooch.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Never here's your rule. Never drink coffee on Sunday afternoons
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: when Patrick Mahomes is playing. You might miss fourteen points. Yeah,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: speaking of New England, they are on the road seven
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: seven a half point fair. It's at the Buffalo Bills
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: right now. Such an interesting team, this Buffalo Bills team,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Like should they get any credit for beating the Jets,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the Giants in the Bengals, like I see the I
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: see so much value on the Patriots here. I can't
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: even tell you. I know that sounds crazy, like the
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Patriots is more than a touchdown favor in the road,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: but the Bills, like they're beating nobody. Yeah, I agree.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: You know, we we were gonna hang six and a half,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: and uh, that was probably the true number, and then
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: we just inflated it with said, if we're gonna be
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: six and a half, we know the parlies are going
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: to comment on the Patriots, so let's just hang the seven.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: And immediately the sharp guys took the seven. So we
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: didn't move the line though. So we're taking some some
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: big bets on the Bills from the sharp guys, but
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: there's an awful lot of decent sized bets from kind
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: of recreational bettors on the Patriots. So we know that
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: again just that Lions game, no matter how much straight
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: beats we take on the Bills from the sharp guys, uh,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: we know we're still going to need the Bills. So uh,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: it's well, this Bill's team. I agree with you. I
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: had mentioned I think that that Josh Allen has made
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: some improvements. I think you disagreed with me on that.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: But last week in in the first half of the
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Bengals game, they did look impressive, but again it's the Bengals,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: and then they led him right back in the game.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: So I don't have a whole lot of confidence in
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: this Bill's team. And even though everything tells you to
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: take a touchdown at home, uh not against the Patriots.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: This one would scare me and I'd rather be on
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: the high side here. Dravelle is a great stat over
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: the last hundred and sixty five games. Uh so what
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: is that ten years or so? The Patriots are six
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: against the point spread? The next the next best team
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: is the Green Bay Packers UM, who are at like
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: fifty against the point spread. So think about that. Think
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: about that like that is insane, in it really sane.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: How do you there's no value in bettinggainst the Patriots?
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: They've changed everything? Yeah, yeah, I mean you know last week,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: you know you we did take quite a bit of
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: big bets from from sharp guys on the Jets. It
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: didn't nearly offset all the parlays. But uh, you know,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: you really have to just like not watch the game
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: if you're betting against the Patriots, because it can it
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: can mess with it. You know what you gotta do,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: what go get a cup of coffee, chop of coffee.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: The Open Rats are visiting the Indianapolis Colde so I
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: think are finally finally getting a little bit of respect
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: in the power ratings from bookmakers. They're touchdown a little
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: bit more than a touchdown favor depending on where you look. Yeah,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: big adjustment Colts every week, surprising people. And uh, you know,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: going into the season, we said that the Andrew looked
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: going down wasn't going to be as big of an impact.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Is that as a lot of people made it out
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: to be. We still felt like the Colts, Uh, we're
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: a good team. Uh, and with the recent covers and
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: the recent wins, we've made quite a bit of adjustment
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: on them. Haven't adjusted the Raiders two months. So um,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: this line might be a little inflated, and it might
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: be that point where, uh, it might be a little
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: much for for the Colts to you know, to cover
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. I mean, the the Raiders are bad, but
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: to come within a touchdown shouldn't be too difficult. So
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: this is a tough one for me. I wouldn't lay that.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't lay the seven. Yes, the first week where
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I'm actually going to be skipping the Cults. I'm three
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: in o in the Coults so far, including last week.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: I believe either the Rams or the Cults and Scutro lett.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: I can't remember what that was. Did we take notes
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: on that? Patrick? We did take notes on that. So
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: we're gonna let you know how we did, because I've
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: already forgotten. But we're gonna play Scoot you let later
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: in the show. Uh. And also, by the way, all
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of these games are gonna move, and you can listen
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: to Scooch and I figure out which way they're moving
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: and which way the opportunities are going to be Sunday
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: mornings on Radio dot Com. Download the app, listen to
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: us right there. Um boy, the l A Chargers go
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: on the road to play Miami. They're sixteen and a half,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: seventeen point favorites. They're not very good. Yeah, yeah, they're
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: they're they're struck. And here's another team similar to the
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Browns that a lot of high expectations, a lot of
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of people felt that if anyone could kind
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: of hang with the Chiefs and kind of compete in
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: that division, it would be them. But they just there's
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: something wrong with that team. And I mean, going into
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: the season, you wonder how much the Melvin Gordon holdout
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: had an effect on them. But um, sixteen and a
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: half points, you know against the Dolphins. Here's another one
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: where you almost have to just take the Dolphins and
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: just not even think about it with that many points. Um,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: you know, I just want to qualify something that that
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: I've been saying the last couple of weeks with with
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins in that saying that they're they're they're not
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: really uh, their their morale is keeping them from from
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: from playing. I didn't want to imply that the Dolphins
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: are not trying. It's just when your morale is down,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: even when you are trying your dent, it just isn't
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: that good. There's different situations, so, you know, I just
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: want to say that because people said, well, you know,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: do you mean that the Dolphins are tanking or that
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: they're deliberately trying to lose? And no, that was never
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: kind of what I was saying. I just meant that
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: when your morale is so low that even your best
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: it's just bad, and it comes across as just being
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: like it looks like you're uh like you're not trying,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: but uh they it seems like I paid attention to
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: that Cowboys game last week and uh, even though the
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Dolphins didn't cover, uh, they played most of that game competitively.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: They just they just got war down at the end
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: and just a couple of a couple of key turnovers.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: But I I think in this situation, the Chargers are
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: not the Cowboys, and I think the Dolins. I think
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins should cover this number. Yeah, I kind of agree,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: but it makes me sick to my stomach to bet
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. Yeah, you can't. You can't watch them. You
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: really can't know. It's just they're just so bad, so bad.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: But they're but their defense, you know, like I said,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: if they don't get war down, if the offense can
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: stay on the field a little bit, give the defense
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: a little breather, the defense can keep them close. It's
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: just the offense just can't move the ball. All right.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Let's go to my least favorite team in the NFL,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, who are four point favorites at home
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: over the Titans. All of a sudden, this feels like
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: a two boring Southeastern nondescript teams that nobody cares about
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: playing in a game that's only going to get watched
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: because some sucker is thinking he knows or has an angle.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Neither the Titans of the Falcons. When there is zero
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: angle to be had on this game. There is no
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: upside to betting this game. I bet you've gotten zero
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: wise guy bets on this game in either direction. We
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: actually did get a couple. I wouldn't say them real,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: they're real big bets, but from some sharp guys. When
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: we first hung the number on Sunday night, we hung
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: five and a half. H the South is minus five
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: and a half and that probably was on the high side.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: So they took five and a half, We went to five,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: They took the five, and we went straight to four.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: We skipped skipped four and a half. So the Pike
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: accounts dead even on it. And it's not a heavily
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: bet game. But the initial plays were on the Titans.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, listen, if you had told me you
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: into five and a half, I would have changed my tunes. Yeah,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: at four, you you know that they're not going to
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: be playing at four. Nobody at four Bettors care is
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: a little about this game, as anybody else in the
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: NFL cares about these teams. Yeah. Well, I'll be honest,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: we're a little high on the Falcons and we shouldn't be.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, last week, I I think you and I
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: disagreed on the game, and you're right, of course, as
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: you normally are. Uh so we clipped that to clip that,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: let's run it back. Geez, I shouldn't have said that.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: It must be the fever. Yeah, no, it is. But
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: but we were too high on him and it took
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: us a little too long to adjust with we thought,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: you know, the first game against the Vikings, we gave
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: him a pass, and then uh, against the against the Eagles,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: you you said that they had gotten lucky in that one,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: and they're probably right. And uh then last week, you know, yeah,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: we're finally at the point we're moving this line quickly.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: So there's still not accurate on this Falcon's power rating.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Speaking of adjustments, we talked last week about Daniel Jones
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: and Eli Manning and how you made zero adjustment in
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: the Giants line. Um in the Giants number, and they
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: were six and a half point dogs to the Bucks. Yeah,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: then Danny Dimes breaks onto the scene. Now the Giants
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorites at home against Washington.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Tell me what you did for some adjustments. Well, we
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: we made a little bit of an adjustment on the
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Giants based on the performance and then of course last night,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: we actually just hung this line after the Monday night
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: game where you know, Washington really didn't show much, so
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: slight adjustment on the Giants. We hung the three point favorite,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: which is probably a little higher than we would have
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: going prior to going into this weekend. So uh, probably
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: about a one one and a half point adjust But ironically, we're,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: as I'm watching right now, we're getting Washington money. So
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: we just went to three even money, we're at three flat,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: We've got some Washington money. We're at three even and
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: we're still getting some Washington money. We might actually go
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: to two and a half on this one. So um,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the sharp guys aren't necessarily a believer in uh in
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: the Giants after just one performance, so uh, they like
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: they like the three points in this one. Wise guys
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: skeptical after one performance. I can't believe that that does it.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I will tell you, I like the Giants is a
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: short home favorite in this game. If you go to
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: two and a half, you'll get jump on that. Yeah,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: you'll get two and a half, you know, I think
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: I think the public will probably want to lay the
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: number with the Giants, especially at two and a half.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: But Uh, you know, like I said, this line would
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: have been about one and a half to prior to
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: this weekend, so so it is a little inflated, but
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: not much. I mean, that's a field goal at home
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: is what you would expect. So yeah, if you're looking
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: to bet the Giants, you'll easily get two and a half.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Here's your most lopsided number on the board where I
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: think you made your biggest mistake. Tampa Bay is a
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: double digit dog on the road at the rams um.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I have been impressed with the Rams all season. I
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: feel like they've played really physical games in tough spots
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: on the road across the country, beating Carolina, taking the
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: best shot from New Orleans in a rematch game, going
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: back on the road, hostile environment in Cleveland. Really impressed
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: with what they've done. Aaron Donald is just so freaking good.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: All that said, the Bucks are a much better team
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: than people think, And to me, they're entering like if
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: the Colts in the first three weeks of the season,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: we're undervalued. The Bucks are now entering at undervalued phase,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: and I think a lot of it's about like, look,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: they beat they lost the Niners in Week one. I
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: guess the Niners team that is probably just better than
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: people thought. Then they beat the Panthers in week two,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: um in a really hard game, and this past week
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: like they got caught in some magic, you know, the Giants.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: There was just something special happening there. And this is
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: a team that ordinarily defense is playing really well and
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: jamis wasted, Winston is throwing better and playing better than
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: he ever has, and I love Bruce arians as a coach.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: There's no way I'm not taking the Bucks at plus
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: eleven against the Rams. Well, we're not at eleven. We
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: actually wanted to open this game nine. We opened nine
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: and a half and instead, and the first bets out
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: of the gate were on the Rams. A lot of
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: places in town went to ten, so we followed went
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: to ten, and I think people are still betting the Rams.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: I'm watching this number actually go up as as we speak.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: But I don't mind needing Tampa Bay and this one
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: with the big number. I know it's going to be
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: a heavily bat parlay game. And you know, with only uh,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of a handful of afternoon games, it's
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: gonna be really high profile. Uh. But there's something this
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Rams team is not the same Rams team, uh, from
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: from last year. They're not. They're not dominating uh as
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: people would expect. I mean they're they're You know, when
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: you're talking about the class of the NFC, you would
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: automatically want to point to the Rams just based on
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: last year. But I honestly feel like, uh, right now,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: I would probably put teams like the Packers ahead of them,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: even the Saints without without Drew Brees. I mean, they're not,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: they're not. Something's amiss with that offense. Jared Goff doesn't
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: look particularly sharp. So I think ten is it's a
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: tough number if you have to lay. And I don't
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: mind meeting Tampa Bay in this one. All right, I'm
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: gonna be on Tampa Bay. You're gonna need him from me,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: all right. I don't know what that. I don't know
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: what that means. Just sounded tough for a second. Uh.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Here's another interesting one. Arizona is a five point dog.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know where you have it at hosting Seattle. Obviously.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: I think there's some impact from this past weekend that
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: is influencing the number. You said, Yeah, this one again
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: a little inflated here. Um, uh, we're not getting a
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: whole lot of action on this one. I don't think
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: the public can really figure out Seattle yet. They're going
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: into the season. They would have liked to think that
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: they're kind of be one of the dominant teams. Um,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: they're the parlays are definitely on on Seattle, probably at
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: about a sport one ratio. Um. We took one sizeable
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: bet on the Cardinals at plus five and we went
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: down to four and a half and we're sitting at
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: four and a half right now with with no action
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: eat away at at four and a half. Um, again
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: being one of the afternoon games, we know that the
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: public is going to be on the Cardinals. So uh oh,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, the public will be on the Seahawks, not
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals. UM. So we're we're gonna we're gonna need
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals in this one. Um, but it's not it's
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: not real heavily bet I'm gonna want the Cardinals in
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: that game. Yeah, you know the Seahawks. You know, if
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: you're looking at statistics, I think you could throw out
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: some of the big plays that they had in last
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: week's game, Like you know, a lot of times you're
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: looking at saying okay, well watch the Wilson through for
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty yards and you know the offense
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: is still there, and uh, there are another team that
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: uh you know can't can't seem to cover as big favorites.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Um so on the road laying four and a half.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I think that's a if I had to play the game,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: I would certainly want to take the points with the Cardinals.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears two and a half point favorites at home
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota. Good God, the Bears suck and I don't
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: want to talk about last night like um uh like
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: then getting healthy this Tuesday afternoon against the Redskins. Like
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: the Redskins are not a very good team, and so
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Mitch Shubinsky against that backfield when he only has to
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: make one read is gonna look good? Right? Uh? I
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: take Minnesota as an underdog in Chicago. Yeah, yeah, I'm
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: with you. The team and I kind of had a
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: lot of conversation about this one whether it's opened two
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: and a half or three, So we decided on three
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: even money. But I really like this this Vikings team.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: I've been kind of, uh a little high on this
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: going into this year. So I'm trying to I'm trying
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: to put our put ourselves in position where we kind
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: of need the Vikings as often as we can. UH
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: had no shot of doing it last week against the Raiders.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: But this this team looks much much more impressive than
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: the Bears. So give me three points, even though they're
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: on the road. I think that's the right play here.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville visiting Denver. Denver is a three point favorite. How
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: do you make Denver at three point favorite anytime? Anywhere?
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: There's no way on a neutral field, these teams are even.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville is a much better team. Agree, This is another
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: team that I don't think we've caught up quickly enough
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: on on the Broncos Raid and have them rated a
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: little too highly going into the season, and and got
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: burned a few times, um the you know stuff. You know,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I think we've made a little bit of an adjustment
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: off of Week one. So in other words, Broncos were
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: playing the Raiders. We opened the Raiders two and a
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: half point favorite in Week one, and that line swung
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: five points in the other direction and the Broncos closed
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: the three point favorite. So when we look at line moves,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: regardless of whether we win or lose the games, we
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: say we made a mistake here. We don't ever want
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: to see a four or five point line move without
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: any significant injuries in the game. So, um, I think
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: we made a little bit of an over adjustment on
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: the Broncos and we're not quick enough to correct that.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: And this is the only thing I will say, is
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: just the Jaguars going into the high altitude and might
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: be a spot where mint who finally comes back to
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: reality here, But I think I think three points is
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: probably if you're going to take aside Jaguars plus the
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: three is a lot more value than laying the three
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: on the Broncos. You keep telling me on this podcast
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: that you made shitty lines. It happened sometimes, Yeah, I know. So. Um,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: just as we were talking, though, I just took a
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: pretty big bed on the Bears. So I was at
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: two and a half on the Bears as we were
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: talking about that. So I'm gonna go back to three
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: even money on this line change one second another Yeah, Okay,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: we're good. That was the most exciting three seconds in podcasting.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: The tension that I felt in the silence when you
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: were making that line change was incalculable. Oh man, I
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: hope people didn't lose the thread on that. Uh, this
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the biggest game of the day. Dallas
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: is visiting New Orleans the resurgence Saints with Tape Bridgewater
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: looking like the probo learn he once was in the
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Cowboys really looking like the class of the NFC. Uh.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: If you've got them at ten to one to win
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the NFC, like I do, you probably feel pretty deep,
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: pretty pretty good. You've got him as a two and
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite on the road. Tell me what
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: you're thinking and where's the money coming? Well, we're trying
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: to offset all the Cowboy Parley money that we've been
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: getting the last few weeks. Um. So, so we opened
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys at three point favorite. Probably maybe maybe it
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: is out on the high side. The shark guys are
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: all over the Saints in this one. It is our
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: most heavily bet street back game. Um And ironically, the
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: parlays are not as lopsided as I thought they would
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: have been. So I think the Saints performance last week
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: without Drew Brees convinced a lot of the general public that, uh,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: you know, in a high profile game, the big Sunday
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: night game at home, even going against a formidable team
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: like the Cowboys. Uh that they feel like the Uh,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: the Saints are a live dog here, So I don't
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I think I think three is probably
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: the right number. I think this is one of the
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: games we just sit back, let them bet it. We
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: don't move off the three and uh, let's let's the
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: ships fall where they are. You are a gambling man, Yeah, yeah,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sway anything. I'm not gonna you know,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: I know if I go two and a half, they
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: lay the Cowboys. I know. I know if I go
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: to three and a half, they'll take the Saints. So
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: I'll just leave it here. Um, it looks like we
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: might actually need the Cowboys in this one, so that
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: won't be the worst thing. I love the Cowboys right now.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: I love him. Uh Monday Night football blah blahs versus
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: the blah blahs. Boy, Yeah, this is a craptastic game. God,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: so let me let me say who it is? Cincinnati
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: visiting Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's a four point favorite. Yeah. I did
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: not think the wise guys would get involved in this one,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: but they jumped on the bangles, which I don't understand. Uh.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: The only thing I could think of is kind of
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: similar to the Giants game, where just kind of one
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: good performance uh from a from a new quarterback isn't
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: enough to sway it. But in this case, I mean
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph didn't look good. So I could understand them
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: playing the Bengals in this one. Yeah, I could too.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: I mean the Bengals have been one of those teams
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: I think. Obviously they laid an egg in Week two
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: in San Francisco was visiting, But I think they're more
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: like the team that is a little bit stingy and
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: can get into a decent rushing attack with Joe Mixon
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: and have Andy Dalton be somewhat accurate. I will never
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: bet them again. I bet them against the Bills uh
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: and felt lucky to get out of there. Um. But
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: I do think they're the right side here. Yeah, it's
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: just a tough game. The public will be on the
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: on the Steelers, sharp guys on the Bengals. Um. Probably
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: not going to move the line a whole lot. Uh,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: not much more to say on nothing to say, don't feeling,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: nothing to say, No one wants to talk about it.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: I guess what time it is. Scooch Scooch for Lette
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: let's go. I'd like to wait until that last note
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: has really been wrung out. Scooch? Who goes first? Last week?
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Bob Scucci chose Detroit plus seven? Nice job, Bob Scucci.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Chad Millman chose in the minus two. Nice job, Chad Millman.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: We have winners all around, all right, Scooch? Why don't
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: you go first? This week? Do you go first? Boys?
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: I just don't like it. But I don't think I've
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: ever played the Patriots on scooch roulette. But this is
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: this is I'm gonna I'm gonna lay points on the road,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: which goes against everything in me. But this Patriots team,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: I just don't see the Bills hanging with them. Wow,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: road favorite of more than a touchdown? Yeah, all right,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: you know what I'm gonna do. What give me the
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Houston Texans minus four? Wow? Four? What are you getting? Four? No? Wait,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: I don't want that anymore. I want because I'm making
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: you're all line. The line moved on me. The line
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: moved on me. Um, I don't give me Tampa Bay
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: plus eleven. You don't have a good eleven? Where do
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: you have it at ten? I think most places there
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: are nine and a half and ten. All right, give
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: me Tampa Bay nine and a half. I mean give
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: me Tampa Bay ten. I can't even speak anyway. I
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: think I think I'm getting sick from you. Yeah, over
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: the phone. Yeah, all right, listen. I think we got
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: our games. I think we got our games. I'm on
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus ten. You're in New England minus seven
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: and a half. Everyone can listen to us on minus seven,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: good lord. Everyone can listen to us on radio dot
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Com Sundays at noon. Stick around. We're gonna do our
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: West Gates Super Contest. Picks me, Dan Ravelle, Simon Hunter
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: coming up very soon. Thanks, you got it. Thanks, Okay,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: we're back. It's time for the pickum contest section of
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: the show. Last week, Darren and I went four and
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: one with help from our very good friend professional better
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. The only game we lost, we had the
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Vikes minus eight and a half. We had the Bengals
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: plus six, we had the Rams minus three. Uh and
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: I think we had the Colts Colts minus one minus one.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: The only game we lost with the Chargers minus three.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: Darren is learning what it's like to be a gambler
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: and having the Sundays beheld hostage to the vagaries of
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Philip Rivers, which is really what it comes down to. Yeah,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: not good. I mean the kids. The guy could make kids,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: but that's pretty much it. Wow, that's not a nice
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: thing to say. I don't know, I'm not being nice today.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: I wanted that five and oh so badly. He's a
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: Hall of Fame Corbell I know, I know. Don't don't
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: point spet the under Were you trying to do a
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: promo there? I don't people, not everyone knows what points
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: bet is. So but I'm gonna you know what I'm
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: gonna do. I'm gonna do a very organic, natural sounding
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: points bet promo because anybody could go to points Bet
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: right now and uh use the promo code action pod
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: and you get a two deposit match with no strings attached.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Your deposit fifty bucks. You bet with one fifty, you're
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: getting six to one odds. I don't even mind me
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: bet that's crazy. It's crazy not to go sign up.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying who you should bet, I'm not saying
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: that that. I'm not saying anything about the games. I'm
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: just saying if you were to better, and chances are
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: you are if you listen to this podcast. You should
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: be going to take advantage of this signing up at
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: points Bet action pod is the promo code. Um. So
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: there's nineteen different sport books that are mobile in New Jersey.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: I'm in New Jersey. Points Bet offers the most options
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: of any mobile book in terms of per per game.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: How easy it is to tease whatever you to take,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: whatever you want. You can pick your own line, pick
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: your own spread, pick your own market. It's uh, it's
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean, we're gonna do even more points
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Beat promos because that that wasn't even the plan in
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: this particular constance right now. Um, but I did it
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: right there, all right there, we gotta choose five games.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Simon is gonna be on the phone. He's gonna come
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: to us with his leans. He's gonna explain to us
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: why the super Contest is starting to get a little
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: bit harder. Give us some game theory. M First, I'll
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: pick mine, and then I'll pick what you think what
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: I think you will, let's do that, do it that way,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: all right? We start out with New England and Buffalo
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: because Joe Q Public right here has to go with
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: the Patriots. I mean it's seven Um, it's free money.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: I just if if you look at the pay tree,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: it's they're the only team that over the past nine
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: years is above six against the spread. Um. I just
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: think it's the hardest number to call. And they you know,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: they would have covered against the Jets had Jared Stidham
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: not that's a real build houses. Okay, fine, we're going
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: to New England minus seven Buffalo. I also, uh, I
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: am not taking by the way, the Chargers is sixteen
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: and a half point. I know you thought I was
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: going to do that. I'm not doing that. I do
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: like the Chiefs as six point favorites over the Lions.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: I do like Daniel Jones as three point favorites over
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: the Redskins. What I saw last night was beyond horrific, terrible, terrible,
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: terrible recording this Tuesday afternoon, he's talking about the Redskins. Yes, sorry, uh.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: And then I do enjoy the Vikings is two and
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: a half point dogs versus the Bears. I loved what
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: they look like. And I'm gonna take the Cowboys as
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: three point favorites over the Saints. Now, I'll tell you
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: what you you'll pick. You're gonna pick the ones that
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: just to show that you're a sharp guy. You're gonna
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: pick the ones that are tight. So you're gonna take
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Green Bay over Philly four and a half. You're gonna
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: take the Texans over Carolina five, You'll take Pat's Buffalo
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: because I convinced you. You're gonna take Indie over Oakland
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: by a touchdown, and you're going to take UH Tampa
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Bay to cover against the Rams nine and a half. Wow,
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: let me tell you something. You're no dummy. Yeah, you're
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: getting really because you like to show how sharp you will,
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: You're getting really really good at this. UH number one
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Green Bay at four and a half. I would almost
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: definitely take. I don't want to bet the Thursday night game, Okay,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: for like, I don't want to bet the Thursday night game.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: The Texans minus five. I'm really interested in I actually
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: feel like in Scooch and I talked about this, and
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I want to get Simon's take on this when when
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: he comes on. UM. I actually feel like the Texans
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: are so undervalued right now and Carolina is so overvalued
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: because of what they did this past week. Different circumstances
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: like Carolina on the road at Arizona, perfect spot for them,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: to look really good. Carolina on the road at Houston,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: second week in a row against a team that is
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: starting to come into its own. You're right, they got
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: no credit for last week, so I think that game
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: opened at four, got bet up to five. So I
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: think the line, I think I've lost value on that.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: By the time the Westgate numbers come out, which we
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: have to bet tomorrow, it's gonna be too high. Pats
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: with you, Um, Indie Oakland opposite of Houston Carolina. To me,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: I feel like Indie, everyone's caught up to the market.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: We're three and no on Indy at this point in
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: the year because we're getting really good numbers. Um, so
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: I'm off of Indie Tampa hundred all in. Like, listen,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: I would go to points bet right now. I would
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: use promo code Action pod right now. That's what I
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: would do. You know what I would do. I would
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: put down my money and I would say, I am
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: going to get a two deposit bonus with no strays attached.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: I deposit my fifty dollars, I bet with one fifty
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: I'd be getting six to one odds on even money bets,
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: and I swear to God I'd use it all on
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay right now, because that's how much I love
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. I go to Points Bet, I do promo
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: action pod, and I bet my one and fifty dollars
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: with my two deposit match. Okay, so let's now get together.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: But you want to bring Simon on to figure out
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: to distill which yes, alight, hold on, let's before Simon
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: comes on, let's let's note we agree on New England
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: minus seven, and do we agree on Tampa Bay? Okay,
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: we agree on Tampa Bay plus nine and a half.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: It will probably higher when it comes out, uh, Simon,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: And now a word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, Listen, Simon, you're in New Jersey. You can
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: bet you could go take advantage of that action pod
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: promo code at Points Bet get your two deposit match.
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: I could and I did. Nice job, brother, I got
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: on a point so early. I love I love that
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: that's kind of what they do and there's kind of
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: like a off shore thing. It's awesome that, uh, a
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: place in America is doing it now. So definitely definitely
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: haven't had the luck of that Baltimore guy week one,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I had some good weeks so that. So
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: that was a good one with the Bucks. Over last
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: week with the Giants, that was a really good one
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: with that. So quickly for our listeners, it's basically like
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: you put down per point, you figure out you do
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: it against this right the guy, the guy in Baltimore,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: he took the Ravens minus six thirty thousand dollars a point,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: so starting at seven, when the Ravens went up by seven,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: it was thirty thousand, eight sixty thousand, nine, ninety thousand.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: And then the thing is you have to put a
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: stop loss on it because he could go the other way.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: So once the Ravens, if the Ravens won by five,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: he would have lost thirty thousand and so on and
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: so on. He'd have stopped lost a six hundred thousand.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: He would have made one point seven million in if
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: he didn't have any stop losses. But yes, that was
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: incredible pr for points Bead. Then this past week I
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: took the under on l s U Vanderbilt sixty one points.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: They scored a hundred and four. Thank god for my
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: family had to stop loss of a hundred fifty dollars,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: otherwise I would maybe not be here. This is all listen.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: This is all the promo that we need to give
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: points bad action pod as the promo code go to
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: points beat, check it out, getting deposit match. Let's get
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: to the action here. Uh so far, so far, Darren
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: and I agree on the Patriots minus seven and Tampa
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Bay plus whatever it's gonna be, uh, Darren, tell Simon
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: the statue told me about this morning when I walked
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: into the office with the Patriots. The Patriots are like
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: over the since two thousand and ten. The Patriots are
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: sixty three point six percent uh in terms of against
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: the spread since two thousand ten. The next best number
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: are the Packers, which they are fifty six point three
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: against the spread since two thousand ten. That's a huge margin, Simon,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: how do we not be at the Patriots here? There's
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: the sharpest thing every year is as soon as all
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: the lines come out in April or May wherever your
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: book is, just take a thousand dollars and put it
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: on the paths to win the a FC. I mean,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: that's what are the nine years? I feel like it's
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: hit for like seven out of nine years. But this
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: week I actually had this like I go like I
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: do when my two seasons. Totally over under is like
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: win totals. Um, obviously stick the Pats over. I had
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: this down for a loss, and I think the look
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: aheadline was it might have been eight or nine, and
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: I think it reopened maybe six and a half or seven.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: And now I'm seeing sometimes I'm seeing some books spread
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: seven and a half of the Bills. I mean, I
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: can't talk you off because everything you just said, I
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: mean the Patriots, the public takes the Patriot from the
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Patriots cover. It's Vegas. They don't know what to do about.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: They have never overadjusted with I mean, you just read
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: those numbers. But um, this is definitely a trap spot
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: for the Patriots. This is like a nice little game
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: where you take um the Bills money on. I disagree
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: with you, totally disagree with you. I think the Bills
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: are getting way overrated. I think the reason to look
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: aheadline the line changed so much from the look a headline.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: The Bills have struggled mightily, uh to beat the Bengals.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: They played, they struggled to beat the Jets, and they
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: obviously played really well against the Giants. Those are bad
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: teams that they're struggling to beat. I think the Patriots.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: I think the Patriots can go in and destroy them.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I think they get exposed. I think their balloon is
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: popped this week. But I think you're looking at a
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Patriots team that actually has a really banged up offensive line.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: I think Edelman is gonna be out this game. Um,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I get the mentality. I mean, On like what you're saying.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: The Pages look like they are a force right now,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: but what they really do. They beat up the Jets,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: they beat up Dolphins, and they beat up Pittsburgh opening
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: night at home. So I mean, I know what you're saying.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: I think I still think the Patriots. They're obviously a
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: good team. But this is just a classic Patriots loss.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: But I can I'll take it with you guys, you
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: both and I can't can't get you all. I don't know.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Simon just actually used all of my logic on the
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: Bills on the Patriots, and it made me rethink everything.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: And no, no, no, no, no no no. Let me
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: hold your hand, Chap. What do you think of Tampa Bay?
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: I like I like your I like the bucks Man.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: I love that idea because I think I I think
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: that right it was. I don't I didn't get why
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: that line wasn't seven with the Rams, and I think
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: it ended they won by seven um sharper than Vegas.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Of course it was. They didn't look good again. I
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: really don't know what's up with them. I mean, if
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Cleveland wasn't such an incompetent coach with Kitchens, I think
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Cleveland probably would have won that game. But I love
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: I love the Bucher that it seems like an ugly,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: ugly lake cover. But they're gonna be. They're gonna be
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: another And we hit it with the Troy last week.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: The public dog, so I mean, I can't talk you
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: off it again. It's a good public dog again. The books, Uh,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: what number do you have that game at? Uh? I
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: mean I got a bunch of two different books of them.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing one book with eleven and I'm seeing one
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: like with a lot of juice min and I'm seeing
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: another book with ten and a half. No, I mean
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: what number? Like, how did you power rate that game? Uh?
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: So I had that at Rams minus seven and a half. Okay,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: So I mean we're not getting crazy amount of plants,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: but still three points. I think it's going to probably
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: close the ten and a half, right, No matter where
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: it goes. We're on. I think we're on that game.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna go up. All right, what do
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: you think of this one? Simon which Darren mentioned, which
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: I actually love the Vikings plus two and a half
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: at Chicago. This is another huge week where the the
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: Jo's whisprose. The Joe's have had a good, good run
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: here of these, he's like obvious stand out favorites. Why
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: wouldn't you take it hitting? Um? I honestly like the Bears,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: but it's one of those things because it bears defense
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: at home and it's Kirk Cousins on the road. But um,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is a is a very I don't want to
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: say it's the biggest Joe Public player of the week,
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: but it really makes because it hit. Yeah, it's because
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: they're I mean, obviously I'm Joe public. So it's because
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: their offense and the way it looks and the highlights
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: and everything, and that's the Joe Public play, all right.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: So So let's look Mitch like that again, even in
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: that win, I mean, he looked good for a half,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: but he doesn't look People still aren't gonna trust Mitch
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: because in everyone's mind, Mitch is still just that's true.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: But I do I do like the Bears on that spot. Okay,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: so can we hold on that. What about Daniel Jones
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: against the Redskins, man, Daniel Jones, that was that was
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: a great, great, great win. I mean, that was hilarious.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: The Bucks being favored six points against anybody. I don't
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: care if the rookie that was that was an easy one.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: But this this is, I mean, if you guys really want,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: we can take it, because it's it's a nice number.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing like minus two and a half three And
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: the Redskins looked like a team that gave up pretty
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: much at home on Monday night. They were horrible. Um,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: but the only worry with me is the Giants defense.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: If you look at any stype, they're grated out is
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: by far the worst worst secondary made me a football.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: And the Washington they're bad, but they got they got
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: some good receivers and the keenom's not he'll throw, he'll
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: throw picks. We'll also throw deep touchdowns. Um, all right, well,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta lean. I definitely put the lean Giants.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: So I got a three pm snack, So we're gonna
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: have to hurry up here. All right. Uh, we're playing
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: for one point five million here there, snack. We're not
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: going to get your freaking Banna snacks right now trying
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: to you're trying to make enough money to buy the company. Okay,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: Uh Simon, I'm going to ask you for your leans
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: in a second, but I want to throw two more
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: games at you. Uh, Arizona, three more games, Arizona plus five.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, I I like cards last week with the
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: kid that was the backup for Carolina and they really
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: really laid an egg and Seattle looked absolutely terrible against
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: the Saints. That was a really good track game. I
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: think we were in between that one the Vikings. Either
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: one was the next sweat first, so that was that
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: worked out. But I do think that I I love
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: these divisional games with these kind of points where it's like,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: as a sharp you gotta take the Cardinals. But bridging
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: super contest, I do Seahawks. It's if it would be
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: less mad at myself, but I would stay away from
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: that one because it's divisional game, all right. Crossing it
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: off Jacksonville plus three, I mean, I'm me and you
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: my man won on the Jags last week. I mean,
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: I love Minshew Um in Denver. I still don't even
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: think they have a sack yet, which is probably the
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: craziest thing to up in this season. Um Miller, disappear,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: You're taking a road a road rookie against Denbury's defense
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: at home. It's it does, That's what I'm saying. It's
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: a tough week where it's like, really gonna be Sharp's
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: versus Jove's. I mean, the the public play is definitely
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: the Jags, and I like, I like that the number
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: sitting at three, But that's a tough one like that,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: we might be able to find a better road team
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: to take, like, um, the real real Chalky want to do,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: Like this week is just the Chiefs. Yes, that was
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: my first that's my first pick. That's like, that's a
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: that's a real Chalky one. That's like they are not that.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, Baltimore got lucky with that late cover. You
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: definitely saw them take the foot off the gas when
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: they're up twelves and I don't see Detroy be able
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: to keep up with the Chiefs, but I don't. I
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: don't like that it's at seven. If it stays the
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: six and a half of the contest, like it because
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: I don't like getting pushes in the contest. Well, you're
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: making some really interesting points here, like the way you
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: think about these things from a contest perspective and the
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: way you think about these things my personal life. You
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: don't you don't want to go You're trying to go minimum.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: You're trying to lower the risk every week to go
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: along here. Like like I told you last week, I
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: like the Bangs and I like the Jags, but like
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: you guys are feeling, which I get it, because we're
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: trying not to go these crazy, sharp, risky place. But
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: I don't mind doing sharp risky place. I mean because
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: the lines that the line stands out there just this week,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: like last week, I like the Saints because that I
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: like stunk. It was weird. And again this week, why
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: why are the Cowboys minus two and a half at
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: New Orleans? See I was taking that and the sharp
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: the sharpest thing in the world is to take the
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: Saints here. I mean, how do you not take that number?
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: That is literally Vegas is giving you money if you're
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: taking the Saint because they're they're pretty much saying you
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: everyone in the world, come bets. Sunday night on the Cowboys. Dude,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: we're taking it. That's a really smart line of the
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: We're taking the Saints. Let me just dra no, no no, no, no,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: no no, look at me, look at me. We're agreeing.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: We're taking the Saints. Right now, I have four games
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: on the board that we're taken. New England minus seven,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus whatever you stay at minus seven though
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: it goes, I don't know. I don't know about the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: Southern and a half minus seven a half, New England
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: minus seven, Tampa Bay plus whatever, casey minus six and
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: a half. We don't want the seven Saints plus two
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, now do you guys want to
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: go chalk here again? For the last one? You looking
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: for a short number because I would like to talk.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: We can do the Giants one. I would like to
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: do either the I need your approval. I would like
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: to do with Chad's approval, of course, either the Giants
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: or the Vikings. Those are the two games that I'm
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: asking you. Guys could take either one of those, but
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: those I want that for the last slot? Um, which one?
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Will we hate ourselves less for you? You You hate yourselves
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: less for Danny, dimes for me? For me? I would well,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: let me, Simon, you're gonna say one more like sharp line,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: because then I have an idea after that, tell me
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: your sharp line, uh for this week? The Houston like
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: after what they did against the Chargers, Why why why
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: is everyone's gonna be taking that minus four against Carolina?
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: But I do like Houston. It's a weird spot where
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: I like. I like that look with Houston as well, um,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: because it's tough. It's stuff in this league to win
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: two road games on a road, let alone, if you're
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback with I like the public I like
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: that public line too of Houston. I love that game.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: I actually told Darren I love that game. Then that
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: scares me. Then come on, come on, Simon, be on
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: my side. It might be too easy. It really actually
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: might be too easy. Like I love the Texans, and
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: I think they're entering there. They're like in this underrated phase.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: But that line, they are a weird, weird thing because
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: everyone remembers that Jags game too, Like, yeah, I honestly
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: thought they got outplayed by the Jacks. That's why I
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: was so down on then. But they really showed up
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: in that I mean they started out there well they
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: showed up a second half against the Chargers. I'll tell
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: you what that's. That's a Joe Verst pro line there.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: That that Caroline in Houston. Here's what I would say,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Here's what I think we should do. Let's take the Texas. Okay,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: let's take New England, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, the Saints
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: and the Texans. Okay, but we know it's Tuesday afternoon.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: The super Contest lines come out Wednesday night. If these
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: lines have moved, if any of these lines have moved
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: considerably off the number we have right now, Um, Texans
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: minus five, Saints plus two and a half, k C
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: minus six or six and a half, Tampa Bay plus
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: nine and a half, New England minus seven. If those
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: numbers move in the opposite direction, we backfill the US.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Two alternatives are alternates are the Giants and the Vikings.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Right deal, summit. How did you do last week in
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: the contest? Uh? We did go. We got a little unlucky.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: I knew everyone's gonna be on that Baltimore one, that
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: that was an easy line, and we took the Chiefs.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: We lost from that one, but um, yeah, I got
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: came through with the Bengals, came through with the Jags,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: so we had a good week. I mean, I think
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: the guy that's leading it, you might have two losses.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: We're two, we're two backing when we got four. And
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: then I looked at the super contests the other night,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: what are the five guys tied for first right now?
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: For four with one loss? I don't look at the star.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not checking until we get much deeper in the year.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: And I know, like, well, I like I like the
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: track to guys because you can tell a lot by
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: what kind of not kind of system of style they're using.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: But pretty much most of these guys, they're going to
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: be in groups that play a consistent style. So it's
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: nice to it's for me. I need to do it
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: just to figure out how I'm gonna fade these guys.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: Like the week's coming off the can you imagine thinking
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: about fading someone out? Like Simon Hunter right now is
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: playing chess. We're not even playing chew We're playing Tiddley
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Winks Connect four. Simon Hunter is going to win thing.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: But pro betters like I probably do like a hundred
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: Best of Weekend man, Like we're just it's all we do.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: It's all we care about. We're just locked in man.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is looking to win one point five million dollars.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: We're looking to throw a dart and win one point
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: five million dollars by hitting a bull's eye. We are
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: playing different games. Thank god, Simon, Thank god you were
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: coming on the podcast with us as always. UH. Your
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: knowledge and insight UH is invaluable and it's getting us
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: closer and closer to winning one point five million dollars.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: Appreciate guys. Hope we have another week of eight center above.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: That was a good week last week. Hopefully keep it rolling.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: You're the best brother, Thank you, Thanks, thanks, all right,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: this has been the Favorites from the Action Network. Downloader
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: to Apple podcast Radio dot com go search for their favorites.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: I am Shad Milman. My co hosts are Bob Scucci
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: from BOYD Gaming and Damn Ravel from the Action Network
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: and Simon Hunter Professional. Better join us next week. I
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: love you.