Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / How To Bet The Games No One Wants | NFL Week 18

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How To Bet The Games No One Wants | NFL Week 18 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:10
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
0:14
Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast, and the regular season
0:17
Speaker 1: in the NFL is wrap it up. I'm Brandon Kravitz
0:20
Speaker 1: back at it on this fine Tuesday morning. The first
0:23
Speaker 1: Lady of the pod, Kendri Middleton, is with us the
0:25
Speaker 1: Prime Minister of DJA Nation Stuckey as well, who is
0:29
Speaker 1: ready to run through the machinations that are involved in
0:33
Speaker 1: Week eighteen in the NFL. We've got our Plant the
0:36
Speaker 1: Flag game for Week eighteen. No more Thursday night football,
0:39
Speaker 1: so no preview to get to there, but we've got
0:41
Speaker 1: scenarios galore and of course the main event, Evan's Tuesday
0:46
Speaker 1: Primer live as of right now on Actionnetwork dot com.
0:51
Speaker 1: Here's what we know, as far as I understand it.
0:55
Speaker 1: The Broncos clinch the AFC West. The Patriots have clinched
0:59
Speaker 1: the AFCs. The Texans, Chargers, and Bills all share the
1:03
Speaker 1: same record. They are locked into the playoffs, but not
1:06
Speaker 1: necessarily into their specific seting. The Bears have clinched the
1:10
Speaker 1: NFC North, The Eagles have clinched the NFC East. The
1:14
Speaker 1: Seahawks and forty nine Ers fight it out for the
1:16
Speaker 1: one seed on Saturday, and the Packers are locked in
1:19
Speaker 1: to the seventh spot. Stucky, did I nail this? Yeah?
1:24
Speaker 2: I mean that's those are the certainties. I mean to
1:27
Speaker 2: run through everything to give everyone like a high level.
1:30
Speaker 2: I'll try to do it in like two minutes. So Denver,
1:34
Speaker 2: where is yours?
1:35
Speaker 1: My friend?
1:36
Speaker 2: So Denver hosts the Chargers. If they win, they clinched
1:40
Speaker 2: the one seed because they have the tiebreaker over the Patriots.
1:42
Speaker 2: The Chargers in very uncharger like fashion because last week
1:46
Speaker 2: can Beek eighteen with a chance to go from the
1:48
Speaker 2: sixth seed to the five seed. They play their starters.
1:50
Speaker 2: Looks like they're going to start Trey Lance rest starters,
1:53
Speaker 2: which is why Denver is now a significant double digit favorite.
1:57
Speaker 2: So if Denver wins that game, they clinched the one seat,
2:00
Speaker 2: they will have a buy and home field advantage throughout.
2:03
Speaker 2: So if New England, say, say the Broncos blow out
2:06
Speaker 2: the Chargers, Pats rest their starters, and you know you
2:10
Speaker 2: have the Dolphins come back to win. Well, if the
2:15
Speaker 2: Jags were to win, the Jags would jump the Pats.
2:18
Speaker 2: So maybe the Pats say we want to win this
2:22
Speaker 2: game and lock up the two regardless that that's a
2:26
Speaker 2: decision has to be made internally. But keep that in
2:29
Speaker 2: mind because just because the Broncos win doesn't mean that
2:31
Speaker 2: the Pets still can't lose a seed, but they will
2:33
Speaker 2: either be the two or the three. If we assume
2:36
Speaker 2: that the Broncos win and the Patriots win Broncos are one,
2:40
Speaker 2: Patriots are two, then your three seed comes down to
2:44
Speaker 2: Jacksonville or Houston, the winner of that division. Jacksonville wins,
2:49
Speaker 2: they win the division. If Jacksonville loses that and the
2:55
Speaker 2: Texans win, the Texans win the division. And then it
3:00
Speaker 2: could get real weird where if you have the Jags. Now,
3:04
Speaker 2: the Chargers have to win for this to happen, so
3:06
Speaker 2: it's unlikely. But if the Jags lost and the Chargers
3:08
Speaker 2: won and the Bills won, then the Bills, Chargers, and
3:12
Speaker 2: Jags would all be tied. It comes down to strength
3:14
Speaker 2: the victory, which the Bills can't win, the Jags and
3:17
Speaker 2: the Chargers. It would come down to like every game
3:19
Speaker 2: would matter on Sunday. It's very close, but that's very
3:22
Speaker 2: unlikely to happen. So really what you're looking at the
3:24
Speaker 2: AFC Broncos win one seed, Pats win two seed, they're
3:28
Speaker 2: double digit favorites. Jags also a double digit favorite. Likely
3:31
Speaker 2: the three seed winner of the AFC North between the
3:33
Speaker 2: Steelers and Ravens on Sunday night is the four seed,
3:36
Speaker 2: and then you know, most likely the Texans will end
3:40
Speaker 2: up being the five seed. They will travel to the
3:45
Speaker 2: winner of the AFC North between the Steelers and the Ravens,
3:49
Speaker 2: and then you know you're gonna have the So if
3:51
Speaker 2: the Chargers lose, they're resting everyone, and then the Bills win,
3:54
Speaker 2: I assume they're gonna rest everyone as well. Then the
3:59
Speaker 2: Chargers to the seventh seed and they would go to
4:03
Speaker 2: presumably New England, Buffalo would go to Jacksonville. So that's
4:06
Speaker 2: how I think it's probably gonna work out. Now in
4:09
Speaker 2: the NFL that rarely happens, but I think the way
4:11
Speaker 2: that it's going to look Denver by Chargers at Patriots,
4:15
Speaker 2: Bills at Jags, Texans at Raven's that's how I think
4:21
Speaker 2: it plays out NFC. While you have McVeigh came out,
4:26
Speaker 2: Rams lose again last week. I mean, it's crazy what's
4:28
Speaker 2: happening in ten day A ten day stretch for the
4:30
Speaker 2: Rams who looked like they were headed to the.
4:32
Speaker 3: One C the question about the AFC before we move on.
4:36
Speaker 4: Sure, do you think because of last night and what
4:40
Speaker 4: happened with Matt Stafford it changes any of the Patriots
4:43
Speaker 4: plans for MVP for Drake May and incentives that they
4:46
Speaker 4: have to hit for Hunter Henry and Stefan Diggs.
4:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think regardless, they're they're gonna play
4:52
Speaker 2: him and play their full offense in the first half,
4:55
Speaker 2: and I think that they'll probably play most of the
4:58
Speaker 2: game because like the two seas could end up being valuable.
5:01
Speaker 2: They ad he's wide open, like Denver is your one, right,
5:04
Speaker 2: so like Denver is very vulnerable to getting the two
5:08
Speaker 2: compared to the three could mean that you're hosting the
5:10
Speaker 2: AFC Championship game. So I think regardless, he's gonna play
5:13
Speaker 2: most of the game. Like where where could like if
5:17
Speaker 2: the Jags somehow are getting blown out and the you know,
5:22
Speaker 2: the the Broncos are blowing out the Chargers, then maybe
5:27
Speaker 2: we rest them late. But I do think that they
5:29
Speaker 2: he'll get his numbers in the first half and there
5:32
Speaker 2: are some incentives there that could matter. So I think
5:34
Speaker 2: for the most part, you'll see the Patriots starters for
5:37
Speaker 2: like a half, three quarters, most likely for the full game,
5:39
Speaker 2: but there could be some scoreboard watching. But that is
5:42
Speaker 2: a good point. But in the NFC you have the
5:45
Speaker 2: Packers are locked in to the seven. The one seed
5:49
Speaker 2: is going to go to the winner of the Seahawks
5:51
Speaker 2: and forty nine Ers, which is on Saturday. If the
5:55
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers win, they get home field throughout through
5:57
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, which we'll hear a lot of. And
6:00
Speaker 2: if the forty nine Ers win, keep this in mind,
6:04
Speaker 2: Seattle locked into the five. So Seattle's in a good spot.
6:07
Speaker 2: They're either get the one seed or the five, and
6:08
Speaker 2: then they go to the winner of the NFC North.
6:11
Speaker 2: If that happens, the Rams are locked into the six.
6:13
Speaker 2: Now McVeigh came out and said he's gonna rest his
6:15
Speaker 2: I mean he's gonna play his starters, which is very
6:17
Speaker 2: unlike McVeigh, which makes sense if the Seahawks win on Saturday.
6:23
Speaker 2: Because if the Seahawks win on Saturday, they can jump
6:25
Speaker 2: up to the five. That's a big difference. That's a
6:26
Speaker 2: difference between going most likely to Philly or to the
6:29
Speaker 2: NFC the NFC South winner. So I think that's what's
6:34
Speaker 2: gonna make that decision with the Rams is the result
6:36
Speaker 2: of the Seahawks forty nine Ers game. But if the
6:40
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers win, Rams are locked into the six.
6:42
Speaker 2: If the Seahawks win, Seahawks have the one. Rams can
6:46
Speaker 2: jump up to the five with a win, and then
6:48
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers would drop to the six. If
6:50
Speaker 2: the Rams get upset by the Cardinals, then you know
6:52
Speaker 2: they would be the six. The forty nine Ers would
6:54
Speaker 2: be the five. The two to three is either going
6:57
Speaker 2: to be the Bears or the Eagles. Same record, but
7:00
Speaker 2: Bears have the head to head. So Bears win at
7:02
Speaker 2: home against the Lions. Some bad blood there. I'm sure
7:06
Speaker 2: the Lions are gonna try. They have a lot of injuries.
7:07
Speaker 2: I don't know who they're gonna end up sitting out,
7:09
Speaker 2: but they're gonna try Stan Campbell. But if the Bears
7:11
Speaker 2: win that game, they clinch the number two seed. If
7:15
Speaker 2: the Bears slip up to the Lions and the Eagles
7:18
Speaker 2: beat the Commanders with what looks like it's gonna be
7:20
Speaker 2: Josh Johnson again, then the Eagles would jump up to
7:24
Speaker 2: the number two seed. I thought that the Eagles would
7:27
Speaker 2: play their starters. I think that that's I do think
7:30
Speaker 2: the two seed matters for both teams. Both the Bears
7:32
Speaker 2: and the Eagles. Like the Bear is one of the
7:33
Speaker 2: best running teams in the NFL, you get home games
7:35
Speaker 2: and in the NFC's wide open, like it could end
7:37
Speaker 2: up in Seattle, like Darnold is the one seed, like
7:38
Speaker 2: that could Bean hosting the NFC championship game. So I
7:41
Speaker 2: think the Bears are gonna try, but it sounds like
7:44
Speaker 2: the Eagles might rest starters. So we'll see May and
7:48
Speaker 2: maybe they're watching the Bears game. There's a lot of play,
7:50
Speaker 2: but as of right now, it looks like the Bear
7:51
Speaker 2: the Eagles might rest some key starters, and then the
7:54
Speaker 2: four seed is going to either be Carolina or Tampa.
7:58
Speaker 2: What made this now, Well, Sunday's like there's three primary games.
8:02
Speaker 2: We talked about this on the Sunday Night episode. Three
8:04
Speaker 2: primary isolated island time slots that are like really impactful.
8:08
Speaker 2: It's the forty nine Ers, Seahawks, the Panthers, Bucks, and
8:12
Speaker 2: then Sunday Night Football between the Ravens and the Steelers.
8:16
Speaker 2: The rest of the Sunday slate is pretty ass. However,
8:21
Speaker 2: if the Bucks win, it got a lot more interesting
8:25
Speaker 2: because of last night because the Pan. If the Bucks win,
8:28
Speaker 2: the Panthers get in if the Falcons beat the Saints,
8:30
Speaker 2: so all of a sudden, this Falcon Saints game becomes
8:33
Speaker 2: a playing game, even though neither team is making the playoffs,
8:37
Speaker 2: which makes that super interesting. Rest of the Sunday slate
8:40
Speaker 2: pretty boring as far as the afternoon slates go. But
8:44
Speaker 2: the most likely scenario, Seattle is your one. So what
8:49
Speaker 2: I think is gonna happen. I really Seattle stand Frans
8:53
Speaker 2: a coin flip. But if Seattle wins, then so like,
8:56
Speaker 2: let's let's take the scenario where Seattle wins. Seattle wins,
8:59
Speaker 2: I think the Rams play their starters and then they
9:04
Speaker 2: beat the Cardinals, which would mean that the Rams jump
9:10
Speaker 2: up to the five, would go to Carolina or Tampa.
9:14
Speaker 2: The forty nine ers would go to Philly if the
9:17
Speaker 2: Bears win, and then the Packers would go to the Bears.
9:20
Speaker 2: Banger games, Seattle gets to buy, but if the forty
9:23
Speaker 2: nine ers. When forty nine ers get to buy, Seattle
9:25
Speaker 2: goes to the NFC South winner, the Rams go to Philly,
9:29
Speaker 2: and then the Packers go to the Bears. Now the
9:32
Speaker 2: Bears lose, it would beat Packers going to the Eagles
9:34
Speaker 2: and Rams going to the Bears. Banger Games in the
9:39
Speaker 2: NFC A lot to sort through. Hope all that made sense,
9:43
Speaker 2: but that's kind of the everything that you need to know.
9:46
Speaker 1: Well done, well done. That was a very NBA two minutes.
9:50
Speaker 1: I believe Kendrick.
9:51
Speaker 2: When I say two minutes, I mean ten.
9:54
Speaker 4: I think it was week with my interruption, it was
9:57
Speaker 4: about six and a half.
9:59
Speaker 3: No, he might be better at our jobs than we are.
10:06
Speaker 4: I have to kill air on the radio before a
10:08
Speaker 4: break so often, Stuck, you should get into radio.
10:12
Speaker 2: I mean that's kind of podcasting with the radio stuff.
10:19
Speaker 1: But yeah, four hours feeling. It's hard to do a
10:22
Speaker 1: show by yourself. I think Stucky would be able to
10:25
Speaker 1: do that with general ease. That would not be a concern.
10:28
Speaker 4: Now in the summer and there's no sports on Tough,
10:34
Speaker 4: but Stuck could do it.
10:36
Speaker 1: I would bet a lot of money. That would be
10:39
Speaker 1: very juice on the money line. Now there's another side
10:43
Speaker 1: to this. Those are all the things that matter, Kendra.
10:47
Speaker 1: You have said, as salty as you were about it
10:51
Speaker 1: on Sunday, I'm not into it. I'm not trying to
10:53
Speaker 1: bet this ship. I'm good you hate it.
10:57
Speaker 3: It's not fun.
10:58
Speaker 1: So what I want what I'm gonna allow you to
11:00
Speaker 1: do here is I'm gonna allow you to eliminate three
11:04
Speaker 1: games from discussion today. Can't plant the flag on them, nothing,
11:10
Speaker 1: Just get them out of the podcast, get them out
11:13
Speaker 1: of your mind, and move the hell on. What three
11:17
Speaker 1: games would you like to nominate?
11:19
Speaker 2: Of course, before before she answers that I this will
11:21
Speaker 2: make it a little more fun, I do want to
11:23
Speaker 2: say that. I for every week eighteen and actually for
11:27
Speaker 2: every week I do do this. I had somehow there's
11:32
Speaker 2: three games that I for my notes for all of
11:35
Speaker 2: them before I broke them down, I just wrote no thanks,
11:39
Speaker 2: like I'm not touching them. So I'm gonna see if.
11:41
Speaker 3: The okay we match.
11:43
Speaker 4: I have never been so drunk with power, and you
11:46
Speaker 4: will never see me so drunk with power ever again,
11:49
Speaker 4: unless for some reason I get my hands on a
11:50
Speaker 4: T shirt cannon. But I'm gonna go Chiefs, Raiders, don't care, Cowboys, Giants,
11:58
Speaker 4: get it the fuck out of here for two.
12:00
Speaker 3: And I know that we have loved.
12:02
Speaker 4: The Saints and loved the Falcons this year, but their
12:04
Speaker 4: Super Bowl is over. This is probably what should be.
12:07
Speaker 4: I agree with what Stucky said on Twitter. The NFC
12:10
Speaker 4: South play like playing game, but it's over.
12:14
Speaker 3: It's done. Who cares. I've seen enough of Tyler.
12:16
Speaker 4: Shuck whatever, it's over, goodbye, And I'm mad at Bijon
12:19
Speaker 4: Robinson for obvious reasons.
12:21
Speaker 1: Oh, Bijon, we should have taken the rushing number. The
12:24
Speaker 1: receiving prop killed us. We had a Monday night football
12:27
Speaker 1: parlay that was so close.
12:29
Speaker 2: We're close. We're two for two on that the I
12:32
Speaker 2: mean the Falcon Saints game. That could be fascinating if.
12:34
Speaker 1: The vib into it. That's so cool.
12:37
Speaker 2: You're gonna get You're gonna like, yes, they're playing for
12:40
Speaker 2: other teams, which like ads even though like they don't care.
12:45
Speaker 2: I'm sure they don't care, like which one of those
12:47
Speaker 2: teams gets in like having that, uh, just knowing that
12:52
Speaker 2: going into a week eighteen game after you've been eliminated,
12:54
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty cool, Like that's gonna give it
12:56
Speaker 2: both teams, like just I think some extra juice and
13:00
Speaker 2: some intrigue if if they end up in a tie,
13:04
Speaker 2: by the way, the Bucks would still go like, imagine
13:06
Speaker 2: that game goes to overtime, so.
13:09
Speaker 4: That game could what if they could they tie on purpose?
13:12
Speaker 4: That would be so funny.
13:14
Speaker 2: Well, they they also the Panthers have an incentive to tie.
13:20
Speaker 2: So if the Panthers tie, they're also get in. So
13:22
Speaker 2: it's like they get to overtime and they have the
13:24
Speaker 2: ball and like they just run out the clock. They
13:26
Speaker 2: get in with the tie. If the Bucks win and
13:28
Speaker 2: then the Saints and Falcons tie, then the Bucks get in.
13:33
Speaker 1: Yeah.
13:33
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe these teams like hate secretly hate the Panthers
13:37
Speaker 2: and want to collude. I don't know. I'll never forget
13:40
Speaker 2: that Week eight team game between the Raiders and Chargers
13:44
Speaker 2: when Brandon Staley called a time out to get uh
13:47
Speaker 2: and they didn't tie when they were both incentivized to tie.
13:50
Speaker 2: That was ridiculous. So what do we have an announcement
13:55
Speaker 2: here for this one?
14:00
Speaker 4: Boston twenty five News breaking news. Patriot star Stefan Diggs
14:05
Speaker 4: facing strangulation and assault charges as of eleven fifteen AM.
14:11
Speaker 4: I can send this in our chat if we would
14:15
Speaker 4: like to look at it. I don't know what this
14:17
Speaker 4: means for their playoff anything, obviously, but this is breaking
14:20
Speaker 4: news from Boston twenty five News.
14:22
Speaker 3: Seven minutes to go.
14:24
Speaker 2: Wow, no Digs and the Pats might have to face
14:26
Speaker 2: the starting quarterback.
14:27
Speaker 1: Wow.
14:30
Speaker 2: So I but Kendra, so I agree with you. Ola,
14:34
Speaker 2: ducon a six point favorite on the road against a
14:38
Speaker 2: team actively trying to lose. Who knows who else they're
14:41
Speaker 2: gonna sit this week, get that game, Like I'm gonna
14:45
Speaker 2: have red zone on on Sunday. There should I think
14:48
Speaker 2: this will happen in the future, where like what we're
14:50
Speaker 2: talking about, you get to select, like which games you
14:54
Speaker 2: don't don't want to have come along the red zone,
14:58
Speaker 2: like customizable resid I know I do that when we're
15:00
Speaker 2: at the bar. You can customize your three screens, and
15:03
Speaker 2: I'll do that on some of my screens, but like
15:05
Speaker 2: give me a red zone, but skip certain games like
15:09
Speaker 2: you like there's different posts, customizable packages that game. No,
15:14
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs probably want to lose two because
15:16
Speaker 2: of draft positioning. It's something They're playing the Broncos with
15:19
Speaker 2: some juice at home on Christmas Night. They cared last week.
15:21
Speaker 2: They could be as careless as they were for the
15:23
Speaker 2: Titans game. So that game, that's one of the worst
15:27
Speaker 2: games of the year. Chief sever Raiders.
15:29
Speaker 4: I saw a like discourse on Twitter this week about
15:33
Speaker 4: what if the playoffs were structured where like the highest
15:37
Speaker 4: seed gets to choose who they play, so like the
15:41
Speaker 4: one seed would pick first, and then the two seed
15:43
Speaker 4: would pick from who was left, would you guy? I
15:45
Speaker 4: mean like it would make the regular season a lot
15:47
Speaker 4: less valuable.
15:47
Speaker 3: But I don't hate that, would you guys? Hate that?
15:50
Speaker 1: They've talked about that in the NBA as well. I
15:52
Speaker 1: think it's the issue becomes the optic is that you
15:56
Speaker 1: have teams that are that are selecting what they feel
16:01
Speaker 1: to be bottom featers, and that just looks bad for
16:05
Speaker 1: the league. But I think it would be fun. I
16:07
Speaker 1: mean that sounds like something you would do in fantasy football. Yeah,
16:11
Speaker 1: so that could be I mean, I think it's less
16:13
Speaker 1: offensive in the in the NFL because everybody's kind of dangerous.
16:18
Speaker 1: In the NFL and the NBA, you're like, yeah, I
16:20
Speaker 1: want them because we're going to sweep that team.
16:22
Speaker 2: I do think that they might be heading down a
16:24
Speaker 2: path where you have to change the way that the
16:29
Speaker 2: number one pick is awarded. I don't know how you
16:31
Speaker 2: would do it, because the way that the league works,
16:33
Speaker 2: you do want the really really bad teams to be
16:35
Speaker 2: able to get a quarterback. But this trend now, and
16:39
Speaker 2: this is like across sports, which we're starting to see
16:44
Speaker 2: of like what the Raiders did last week with two
16:46
Speaker 2: weeks to go like benching your best player who wanted
16:49
Speaker 2: to play. That's it. I mean, there's only seventeen games,
16:52
Speaker 2: and it's that's a dangerous path and I don't like that.
16:55
Speaker 2: I don't know how you solve it. But the haven't
17:01
Speaker 2: said he liked big he likes big cats. I do
17:03
Speaker 2: you need a minimum amount of wins to be eligible?
17:06
Speaker 4: Yeah?
17:07
Speaker 1: So yeah, the way the Saints Falcons does have some
17:11
Speaker 1: ramifications as far as the uh not for them, but
17:14
Speaker 1: as far as the season total goes. The the over
17:18
Speaker 1: under for the Saints one season, early in the off season,
17:22
Speaker 1: I think this was right before Derek Carr officially retired.
17:25
Speaker 2: It was six and a half and Falcons in total too, so.
17:30
Speaker 1: They I and I that was one of three total
17:32
Speaker 1: bets that I made before the season was Saints under
17:35
Speaker 1: six and a half wins. I need them to lose
17:38
Speaker 1: to the Atlanta Falcons. I thought for sure a month
17:40
Speaker 1: ago this was as safe as safe could be. And
17:42
Speaker 1: they've gone on a little heater here and then, and
17:46
Speaker 1: then you have the Falcons trying to play spoiler. I'm
17:48
Speaker 1: I'm kind of into that game and part of it
17:51
Speaker 1: is financially driven.
17:52
Speaker 2: But Falcons win total offensive Rookie of the year. Bijon
17:59
Speaker 2: is going toe it? What are the Bejon props going
18:02
Speaker 2: to be this week? After last week and they're they're
18:05
Speaker 2: gonna pepper him? Okay, what's going for the scrimmage record?
18:09
Speaker 1: Okay? So I know that Zucky has this one coming
18:12
Speaker 1: up later in the show. Brown's Bengals. Why is that interesting?
18:17
Speaker 4: Are you joking because Joe Burrow and the boys are hooping?
18:22
Speaker 2: Why is that interesting?
18:23
Speaker 1: Uh?
18:24
Speaker 2: Someone's going from Garrett? Yeah, Miles Garrett.
18:27
Speaker 1: That's fair.
18:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, what game would you have picked?
18:30
Speaker 4: Like?
18:30
Speaker 2: My other third game though is Packers Vikings. Yeah.
18:33
Speaker 4: I thought about that, but I probably care less about
18:37
Speaker 4: the Saints and the Viking.
18:38
Speaker 3: About the Saints and the Falcons.
18:40
Speaker 2: Packers Vikings, like the Packers are rest are going to
18:43
Speaker 2: rest everyone. Maybe Malik will starts, I don't know. I
18:46
Speaker 2: don't know. But they're resting every key fire because they're
18:50
Speaker 2: locked in last year you had love get Bang w
18:53
Speaker 2: Watson tears a c L. They've had so many injuries,
18:56
Speaker 2: they're resting everyone. Maybe McCarthy plays for the Vikings, but
19:00
Speaker 2: there's a chance this is Max Bros.
19:02
Speaker 3: I think he does. I was gonna say it's got
19:04
Speaker 3: to be broad.
19:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is ugly. This could be Brosmer versus Tune.
19:07
Speaker 2: Brosner six point favorite against Tune. This is that. That's
19:10
Speaker 2: Chiefs Raiders. Get that half of my life, Kendrick.
19:13
Speaker 1: Can we punt that one? Can we get that one
19:15
Speaker 1: out of here? Yeah?
19:16
Speaker 3: Sure, I don't care. We can.
19:17
Speaker 4: We can squash all four of them if you really
19:19
Speaker 4: feel like it, because I don't give a shit.
19:22
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, sounds good. We are about to dive
19:25
Speaker 1: deep into our plant the Flag games, but first a
19:27
Speaker 1: word from our very own Kendra Middleton.
19:29
Speaker 4: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sports book,
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Speaker 4: is yours, all right, Kendrick.
19:58
Speaker 1: Before we get to the plays that will kick off
20:02
Speaker 1: our week, what is on your mind?
20:04
Speaker 2: What could you have been acting?
20:15
Speaker 4: Before Philip Rivers was even brought up. We could all
20:19
Speaker 4: agree that bringing back somebody that old sounded insane, and
20:25
Speaker 4: now because of the games that we've had on Christmas
20:27
Speaker 4: and the number of backup quarterbacks, third string quarterbacks we've seen,
20:31
Speaker 4: looking back on this, it truly was the right decision.
20:34
Speaker 4: And I think that this is probably going to wind
20:37
Speaker 4: up changing quarterbacking as we know it. I think we're
20:39
Speaker 4: probably going to see older guys stick around for longer.
20:43
Speaker 4: This singular move honestly might have saved Kirk Cousins from
20:47
Speaker 4: retirement or having the Falcons scratch this guaranteed money that
20:50
Speaker 4: they were going to owe him if he stayed. I
20:52
Speaker 4: think that they're probably happily going to give that.
20:54
Speaker 3: To him now.
20:55
Speaker 4: One because of obviously Michael Pennicks tearing his same acl
20:58
Speaker 4: for like the third time. But two, the value that
21:01
Speaker 4: Philip Rivers has shown in a veteran over some of
21:04
Speaker 4: these young guys with the lack of experience has been.
21:07
Speaker 3: Beyond eye opening.
21:08
Speaker 4: I mean, this guy was an incredible quarterback ten years ago,
21:12
Speaker 4: Sat on the couch for five years, came back and
21:15
Speaker 4: competed and honestly better than a lot of the third
21:18
Speaker 4: string young guys we saw. So I think that this
21:21
Speaker 4: is probably going to seriously change quarterbacking in the future.
21:24
Speaker 3: I don't know how you guys feel, but I.
21:26
Speaker 4: Thought that this was a good topic to discuss because
21:28
Speaker 4: I think things could seriously look really different moving forward.
21:31
Speaker 1: I think what it does is it restores some values
21:36
Speaker 1: of the position that have been lost lately. We are
21:40
Speaker 1: so obsessed and I've certainly fallen victim to this of saying,
21:44
Speaker 1: if this quarterback can't move, then they just can't work
21:47
Speaker 1: in today's NFL. I think what Philip Rivers taught me
21:50
Speaker 1: because I thought this was going to be a disaster, leadership, ball, placement,
21:55
Speaker 1: understanding what the defense is throwing at you, all these
21:58
Speaker 1: things that when I was growing up, that was all
22:00
Speaker 1: that mattered at the quarterback position. And it seems like
22:03
Speaker 1: lately athleticism has become such a big component into how
22:09
Speaker 1: we evaluate quarterbacks. And Philip Rivers couldn't fucking move and
22:12
Speaker 1: the guy was still effective at the position. All of
22:15
Speaker 1: those things still.
22:17
Speaker 4: Good teams good teams too, Like good teams in.
22:20
Speaker 1: High pressure situations. I think we have lost sight of
22:25
Speaker 1: how important the basics are at the quarterback position, leadership,
22:28
Speaker 1: ball placement most specifically, And Philip Rivers showed that that's
22:32
Speaker 1: the thing that I took away from it stuck.
22:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think you need to be able
22:38
Speaker 2: to move some to be an elite quarterback in the
22:40
Speaker 2: NFL these days, because there's an offensive line problem in
22:43
Speaker 2: the NFL. The edge rushers are getting better, although like
22:47
Speaker 2: there's still some guys that are just like Burrow, He's
22:50
Speaker 2: not gonna run and he's gonna sit in the pocket.
22:53
Speaker 2: But I think that then after like your elite guys
22:56
Speaker 2: who can move for the for the most part, if
22:57
Speaker 2: you just list like the top ten quarterbacks, they're all
23:00
Speaker 2: going to have mobility like your elite eyes. But then
23:04
Speaker 2: there's there's a quarterback shortage in the NFL, and then
23:08
Speaker 2: like there are so many bad quarterbacks that the value
23:12
Speaker 2: of just having a guy who can who is accurate,
23:15
Speaker 2: can command the offense, I think was is has been lost,
23:21
Speaker 2: as Brandon said, And there's there's always going to be
23:24
Speaker 2: a a place for older quarterbacks because the Steelers exist.
23:30
Speaker 2: So what do they do next year? They're like the
23:35
Speaker 2: falling down like them. The quarterback story for next year
23:38
Speaker 2: is you obviously have like the Raiders are going to
23:40
Speaker 2: draft a quarterback, right the Giants that they stick with Dart.
23:46
Speaker 3: For sure, So like you have does Kyler move?
23:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, so too, I think is moving and then Kyler's
23:54
Speaker 2: probably gone. Does Kyler like go to Miami? I don't
23:58
Speaker 2: know what does Dan would with Daniel Jones because he
24:01
Speaker 2: only signed a one year deal, so he's gone, or
24:03
Speaker 2: like that the Colts end up resigning to the other colts,
24:07
Speaker 2: the Steelers. What happens with Rogers? Like those are your
24:09
Speaker 2: QB moving pieces? And like there's also a world where
24:13
Speaker 2: like the Raiders draft someone but need an older guy
24:17
Speaker 2: right as.
24:18
Speaker 3: A bridge the same to have some questions.
24:21
Speaker 4: I think Tyler Shuck's their guy, but they doubted they did,
24:24
Speaker 4: They doubted him for quite some time.
24:26
Speaker 3: I don't know.
24:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, so's there's opportunities. I'm good should have to highlight
24:30
Speaker 2: the quarterback shorts. It's like there was an article yesterday
24:32
Speaker 2: I said, like here are the three teams that could
24:34
Speaker 2: give Daniel Jones one hundred and fifty million, like like
24:37
Speaker 2: that these guy towards ACL he's not been great his
24:40
Speaker 2: whole career. I get it good if you flashed this
24:42
Speaker 2: year a little bit, but like that's Daniel Jones is
24:44
Speaker 2: like a hot commodity. So yeah, I think it's a
24:48
Speaker 2: good point and worthy of discussion. But I liked I
24:51
Speaker 2: think the most impressive thing about Rivers is his level
24:57
Speaker 2: of care, Like he was like the most. He cared
24:59
Speaker 2: more than any other cold on the field. Screaming on
25:02
Speaker 2: the sidelines, Oh my.
25:03
Speaker 1: God, I love it.
25:05
Speaker 2: And then that's one of the things you.
25:08
Speaker 1: Know, and how many guys come into the league, even
25:12
Speaker 1: if their veterans of five or six years, are willing
25:15
Speaker 1: to scream at their offensive linemen if they if they
25:18
Speaker 1: false start. There's I think it's a cultural thing. We're
25:23
Speaker 1: afraid of confrontation now more than ever, and Philip Rivers
25:27
Speaker 1: is going in on his offensive line if they screw up.
25:30
Speaker 1: That's leadership, being able to and not doing it just
25:33
Speaker 1: because you want to be a dick, but doing it
25:35
Speaker 1: because you're trying to be better on every single play.
25:40
Speaker 1: It was old school leadership. It was really cool to
25:42
Speaker 1: see and I thought it was going to be a
25:44
Speaker 1: train wreck and it wasn't.
25:45
Speaker 3: Was it really give more value?
25:47
Speaker 1: Like I think it gives him less in some regard
25:50
Speaker 1: because I don't think he's a good leader. I think
25:52
Speaker 1: it shows just how important that I.
25:54
Speaker 4: Don't know, because like if you've seen you're a Dolphins fan,
25:57
Speaker 4: you should have seen all this all week, all the
25:58
Speaker 4: clips of him on the bench with Quinn helping him out,
26:01
Speaker 4: helping him.
26:01
Speaker 3: Like read the iPad.
26:03
Speaker 4: He has not gone like full scorged earth, like he's
26:06
Speaker 4: being a mentor to Quinn you wears, And I think
26:08
Speaker 4: that that shows something from him.
26:11
Speaker 2: Back up there's but listen up, we got sixty minutes,
26:14
Speaker 2: sixty minutes tonight, four hours of pain. I still laugh
26:17
Speaker 2: at his pregame type speech.
26:19
Speaker 3: In the tunnel another day closer to doth So uh.
26:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be well, we'll have a lot of time
26:26
Speaker 2: to discuss. So sure, quarterback Carasel on the off season.
26:29
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the college ranks before we
26:31
Speaker 1: get to our plant the flag games. Let's sling it
26:33
Speaker 1: over to the CFP. It's that mysterious time after Christmas Day,
26:38
Speaker 1: right before New Year's Day that our couch becomes the
26:40
Speaker 1: thing that we have a very intimate relationship with. That's
26:45
Speaker 1: where we watch Quinn you ers sling the ball around
26:47
Speaker 1: the yard and because that's where you watch your Sling TV.
26:52
Speaker 1: The best way to not miss a single moment of
26:54
Speaker 1: the college football playoffs is with Sling TV. So we're
26:58
Speaker 1: going to tell the folks all about Sling TV and
27:01
Speaker 1: how they can cover you this holiday season. With Sling TV,
27:05
Speaker 1: you take full control with the flexible package option of one, three,
27:08
Speaker 1: and seven day passes for access to thirty plus live channels,
27:12
Speaker 1: which includes ESPN and TNT, so that you're covered for
27:15
Speaker 1: the Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl, the Cotton Bowl, and more. So,
27:18
Speaker 1: tell that family friend or family member about Sling TV.
27:23
Speaker 1: Let's put together an all day parlay for New Year's
27:27
Speaker 1: Day college football playoff quarterfinal games on Thursday. Stucky, Let's
27:33
Speaker 1: start with you. You're the college football guru here on
27:36
Speaker 1: the pod. Who are we betting on New Year's Day?
27:40
Speaker 2: Let's just start off. We'll put an anchor in their
27:43
Speaker 2: Indiana on the money line to get it done. I
27:46
Speaker 2: think much better team. I think this line is a
27:47
Speaker 2: little short. Albama can't run the ball, they can't get pressure.
27:52
Speaker 2: Indiana elite staff extra time to prepare here. But the
27:56
Speaker 2: one dimensional Alabama attack. They've been so fortunate for about
27:59
Speaker 2: two months fortunate against Oklahoma, probably should have lost to Auburn,
28:03
Speaker 2: probably should have lost to South Carolina. I just don't
28:05
Speaker 2: think this Alabama team is elite. I think this Indiana
28:09
Speaker 2: team is clearly one of the two best teams in
28:11
Speaker 2: the country, maybe three. If you want to throw a
28:13
Speaker 2: Notre Dame in, there is not in. But yeah, I
28:16
Speaker 2: think Indiana is too well balanced. Like, if you look
28:20
Speaker 2: at these teams, one of these teams can run the ball,
28:24
Speaker 2: one of these teams can get after the quarterback, and
28:27
Speaker 2: that one is Indiana in both aspects. I think that's
28:31
Speaker 2: the difference. So give me the Hoosiers to advance.
28:34
Speaker 1: I dig it. I'm into Indiana, Kendra, what about you?
28:38
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Oregon money line. I think the
28:41
Speaker 4: Ducks are going to be one of the most slept
28:44
Speaker 4: on teams throughout this entire postseason. I think that they
28:47
Speaker 4: could win a national championship this year if some things
28:49
Speaker 4: go right for them. For me, it's just one I
28:54
Speaker 4: don't love a lot of times teams that spend a
28:57
Speaker 4: ton of time on their couch in between games or
29:00
Speaker 4: is obviously coming off of a feel good, pretty easy
29:02
Speaker 4: win for them. I think it was an easy spot
29:03
Speaker 4: for them to get up can give them some momentum
29:06
Speaker 4: moving forward. But the other thing for me is that
29:08
Speaker 4: there's some continuity on their roster. And Oregon's been one
29:11
Speaker 4: of these teams since the dawn of time who has
29:13
Speaker 4: invested a lot of money into their program, whereas Texas
29:17
Speaker 4: Tech hasn't. This is they're new to putting a ton
29:21
Speaker 4: of nil all of this money into this program. It's
29:23
Speaker 4: really the first year that it's paid dividends for them,
29:26
Speaker 4: whereas with Oregon it's been that way for a long time,
29:28
Speaker 4: which is where they get that continuity. So I like
29:31
Speaker 4: Oregon in this spot, don't love that they've been on
29:33
Speaker 4: their couch for quite some time.
29:35
Speaker 3: I think Oregon probably rolls here.
29:37
Speaker 1: Okay, well, then I'm gonna have to change my pick
29:39
Speaker 1: because I think putting Texas Tech plus two and a
29:42
Speaker 1: half in there would be kind of silly.
29:43
Speaker 3: At this point, I like this one better than anyway.
29:48
Speaker 1: Well, I'm gonna go with the I'm gonna have a role.
29:50
Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna throw Georgia in there at minus six
29:52
Speaker 1: and a half against Ole Miss I think this is
29:55
Speaker 1: where not having Lane Kiffen wasn't going to impact them
29:59
Speaker 1: against two not having your head coach will impact you
30:04
Speaker 1: against Kirby Smart with extra time to prepare. I think
30:08
Speaker 1: people are gonna come in on Old miss after watching
30:10
Speaker 1: them route the green wave, and uh, I think it's
30:14
Speaker 1: a mistake. So I will throw Georgia minus six and
30:18
Speaker 1: a half in there. We're gonna add Indiana's money line
30:21
Speaker 1: and Oregon's money line as well into our college football
30:26
Speaker 1: all day parlay. Sling TV also coming in in the
30:30
Speaker 1: clutch for both NFL games on Saturday this week and
30:33
Speaker 1: some NFL playoff games that are coming up. So now
30:37
Speaker 1: is the time to acquaint yourself with Sling TVs one,
30:40
Speaker 1: three and seven day passes. Time to plant our flag
30:45
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
30:50
Speaker 2: It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
30:52
Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing. Kendro,
30:55
Speaker 1: We're back to you. What are we looking at?
30:58
Speaker 4: You?
30:58
Speaker 3: Guys? Stole both my picks.
31:00
Speaker 4: I logged on here and Stucky is just his brain
31:04
Speaker 4: is just so full of anything that he doesn't often
31:06
Speaker 4: fill out notes. He just comes prepared and knows all
31:08
Speaker 4: of the numbers in immediate real time.
31:10
Speaker 3: And for the first time ever, I logged on.
31:12
Speaker 4: To fill on our notes, and Stucky had filled them out,
31:15
Speaker 4: so I couldn't beat him to the pick that I wanted,
31:18
Speaker 4: and then you had the Panthers. That number's gone now,
31:20
Speaker 4: which makes me feel a little bit vindicated. You guys
31:23
Speaker 4: stole both of my picks, so I think I might
31:25
Speaker 4: go depending on starters for the Colts, I might lean Colts.
31:29
Speaker 3: I gotta be honest with you, guys.
31:31
Speaker 4: I know that that's yucky, but it is a divisional
31:35
Speaker 4: game and it just feels large.
31:38
Speaker 3: I think it's ten and a half.
31:39
Speaker 2: Now, you can take whatever game you want. Mind you're pi.
31:42
Speaker 2: My cat's trying to break in.
31:44
Speaker 1: Right about Don Cappy? About Don Cappy And so now
31:52
Speaker 1: you've heard the tale I tell that's Ai l I'm
31:59
Speaker 1: talking about the tail of that.
32:01
Speaker 3: Dog cat show us the cat.
32:04
Speaker 4: I think I think I'm gonna go with the Colts,
32:05
Speaker 4: depending on who's gonna play and who's not. But that's
32:08
Speaker 4: probably gonna be where I'm getting just because it's in
32:10
Speaker 4: division and it might be.
32:11
Speaker 3: A little bit of an emotional bet. But here we are.
32:14
Speaker 1: Well okay, but we might also get Riley Leonard. Does
32:17
Speaker 1: that make that's why less? Does that make you like
32:20
Speaker 1: this any less that it might be they might go
32:22
Speaker 1: Riley Leonard.
32:23
Speaker 3: Here it is going to be. I think it is
32:25
Speaker 3: going to be Riley Leonard.
32:26
Speaker 4: But no, it's still a divisional game, and the Colts
32:28
Speaker 4: did play the drugs pretty tough for a.
32:30
Speaker 3: Hot yay is the cat that's such a cute cat stuck.
32:36
Speaker 2: He's got a little heart heart white spot right there.
32:41
Speaker 2: He's basically parlay.
32:42
Speaker 1: Who's that?
32:43
Speaker 2: This is Hank.
32:45
Speaker 3: I'm gonna cry.
32:47
Speaker 2: But he's like a dog like he our nieces and
32:49
Speaker 2: nephews just like carrying around. They just like they'll like
32:53
Speaker 2: grab him like this and just walk around them. He
32:55
Speaker 2: just lets anyone do whatever they want.
32:58
Speaker 1: That's awesome. My cats love it.
33:01
Speaker 4: Anyways, This might be half emotional, half brain, but I
33:05
Speaker 4: think the Colts are going to try and show up
33:07
Speaker 4: and play. Whether it's I do think it's gonna be
33:08
Speaker 4: Riley Leonard, but I still think they're gonna show up
33:10
Speaker 4: to play.
33:11
Speaker 1: I think Hank would be on the sad Cats. The
33:15
Speaker 1: Panthers plus the points.
33:17
Speaker 3: Then do what you coward.
33:20
Speaker 1: No, I'm not I'm not gonna do that. I planted
33:25
Speaker 1: I as I lost a point, we crossed three. I
33:28
Speaker 1: already bet this and plus three. So this opened at
33:32
Speaker 1: three and a half. I got it at three. Couple
33:34
Speaker 1: of hours later that thing got gobbled up like a
33:36
Speaker 1: like a Thanksgiving turkey. And then now we're down to
33:39
Speaker 1: two and a half. I I can't advise the Panthers anymore.
33:42
Speaker 1: If anything, I would tease them with somebody else that
33:44
Speaker 1: you like. Maybe I love a good teaser. How about
33:48
Speaker 1: Panthers up to eight and a half and the San
33:52
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers up to seven and a half.
33:54
Speaker 1: There you go, have yourself a fun day on Saturday.
33:57
Speaker 1: I will plant my flag though, on San Francisco plus
33:59
Speaker 1: one one and a half against Seattle. Not only for
34:02
Speaker 1: the division. This one's for the one seed, and I
34:04
Speaker 1: feel like the forty nine ers, for the first time
34:06
Speaker 1: in their existence, are the team that nobody's talking about.
34:09
Speaker 1: Brock Party is as hot as any in the NFL,
34:13
Speaker 1: thirteen touchdowns in his last three games. We do have
34:16
Speaker 1: to monitor the Trent Williams injury. He injured his hamstring
34:19
Speaker 1: on Sunday Night Football. I think George Kittle is going
34:22
Speaker 1: to play and be back in this one. Mind you,
34:24
Speaker 1: they ran up the score or they've got into the
34:27
Speaker 1: forties against the Bears without their best receiver in George Kittle.
34:32
Speaker 1: San Francisco is initially listed as a favorite in this one.
34:35
Speaker 1: Money came in on Seattle. We've seen some resistance at
34:38
Speaker 1: plus one and a half, so I think the number
34:40
Speaker 1: is likely going to settle where it's at. Happy to
34:42
Speaker 1: be on the home dog here give me the forty
34:45
Speaker 1: nine ers plus one and a half and a headshake
34:48
Speaker 1: from Tendra.
34:49
Speaker 2: Seattle kind of got screwed like they they were on
34:52
Speaker 2: the East Coast and because of the NFL, like the
34:55
Speaker 2: NFL did just so they're just TV and just greed.
35:00
Speaker 2: Like all these games that are correlated we be at
35:01
Speaker 2: the same time on Sundays. You should just have like
35:03
Speaker 2: a one o'clock correlated games, four o'clock core later games
35:07
Speaker 2: mixing your games that are mean nothing. But they gotta
35:09
Speaker 2: have Saturday games. So Seattle has to come across the
35:11
Speaker 2: country on the secondary road game in a short week
35:13
Speaker 2: for the division in the one seed. But I think
35:17
Speaker 2: Kittle on Williams are a huge year. Yeah, they can
35:20
Speaker 2: get away with it against the Bears defense. The Bears
35:22
Speaker 2: defense is atrocious, but against the Seattle defense, but yeah,
35:25
Speaker 2: the Seattle offense is trending way down. I mean, even
35:29
Speaker 2: against the Panthers defense, I can't get pressure.
35:32
Speaker 3: Donald Donald has incentives this weekend too.
35:35
Speaker 2: Donald looked really bad. But since kender wouldn't, I don't
35:39
Speaker 2: even know what Kendrick's planned their flag on. Maybe the Colts, so.
35:43
Speaker 3: Riley Leonard or not? I hate this week? You got it.
35:46
Speaker 2: It's gonna be Riley Leonard, Riley Leonard starting.
35:50
Speaker 3: Why isn't Philip Rivers going to play one more game?
35:53
Speaker 2: I guess they just want to see you might as
35:54
Speaker 2: well see what you got since the game means nothing to.
35:57
Speaker 1: It's a it's a learn learn about your guys, learn
36:00
Speaker 1: about your personnel kind of game. For the Colts, well, season.
36:04
Speaker 3: Was pretty much over. You couldn't let them. You could
36:06
Speaker 3: have let that happen a month ago.
36:09
Speaker 2: The last week they said that because there was a
36:11
Speaker 2: chance that the Colts still could have made the playoffs
36:13
Speaker 2: before some of the other results. And they said that
36:15
Speaker 2: they're gonna start Rivers because he's gonna practice with the
36:17
Speaker 2: ones all week. But Leonard's gonna practice the ones and start.
36:20
Speaker 2: I think that's less fun. I would rather it s
36:21
Speaker 2: all Rivers, But I get it. I'll play my Flags
36:25
Speaker 2: on two games. We talked about the Panthers Bucks on
36:29
Speaker 2: Sunday and Brandon would saying, I think you should take
36:32
Speaker 2: the three and a half. I said, yeah, I mean
36:33
Speaker 2: three is probably right at two and a half, I'm
36:35
Speaker 2: taking Tampa. I've been head of the Tampa stinks. I've
36:40
Speaker 2: been driving that bus all year. Just because Baker had
36:43
Speaker 2: a couple of miracle last minute wins early in the season,
36:45
Speaker 2: people thought this team was good. They're not. But the
36:48
Speaker 2: Panthers aren't good either. This line now two and a half.
36:51
Speaker 2: Two weeks ago, they were three point favorites in Carolina.
36:55
Speaker 2: Two weeks ago, we're at the end of the year
36:57
Speaker 2: and it's not like and the game was a coin flip.
36:59
Speaker 2: The Bucks had a coverage bus where Dean went played
37:02
Speaker 2: the wrong coverage at the end of the first half, which
37:04
Speaker 2: led to a touchdown. The game is a complete coin
37:05
Speaker 2: flip game. Now two weeks later, the Bucks are under
37:10
Speaker 2: a Fueld goal at home. I have to take that
37:13
Speaker 2: at two and a half. I wouldn't I have.
37:16
Speaker 3: To sign what's that said? I think Hank was our sign.
37:21
Speaker 2: Maybe, but I know I have to take the Bucks.
37:23
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm worst. I think might be back. There
37:24
Speaker 2: are some other offensive line injuries. There's some defensive injuries
37:27
Speaker 2: Dean and Reddit worth monitoring. But like the Panthers, don't
37:30
Speaker 2: get pressure. Bryce Young on the road it's atrocious. I
37:32
Speaker 2: mean last week he threw it for fifty hours on
37:35
Speaker 2: twenty four attempts. I have to take the I have
37:37
Speaker 2: to take the Bucks minus two and a half here.
37:39
Speaker 2: Plus it's the NFC South. You know it's going to
37:42
Speaker 2: come down to Saints Falcons on Sunday. NFL scriptwriters will
37:47
Speaker 2: ensure that happens. But my my favorite bet is the
37:50
Speaker 2: Bengals against the Browns. I think the Bengals blow the
37:55
Speaker 2: doors off the Browns. Browns are simple team people. They're
37:58
Speaker 2: the least profitable road team over the past three years,
38:01
Speaker 2: the most profitable home team. Their defense doesn't play the
38:04
Speaker 2: same on their road. It's like Garrett once he gets
38:07
Speaker 2: his sack. Okay, good night. But that this Bengals offense
38:10
Speaker 2: is rolling. Their offensive line is playing better. Mims, Fairchild,
38:14
Speaker 2: are playing better. You got all your healthy pieces. Burrow's
38:16
Speaker 2: gonna play. The offense is rolling right now, so they're
38:20
Speaker 2: gonna put up their points at home.
38:22
Speaker 3: Free my boy, Free Joe Burrow from.
38:24
Speaker 2: All can the Browns match? No, I don't think Fannon's
38:28
Speaker 2: gonna play. Fannin's their whole offense. Luckily he played enough.
38:32
Speaker 2: He played a quarter last week and caught a fifty
38:33
Speaker 2: our touchdown pass. Because after that the Browns did nothing. Nadjok,
38:37
Speaker 2: Who's hurt? Fannin's hurt? How are they going to keep
38:40
Speaker 2: up here? Additionally, I think the Bengals are a little
38:44
Speaker 2: undervalued right now because their defense is playing much much
38:48
Speaker 2: better the past six weeks. Number one in EPA per play.
38:52
Speaker 2: You might say, ah, who have they played ball? Blah?
38:54
Speaker 2: They played the Ravens twice, the Pats, the Bills, the
38:58
Speaker 2: Dolphins and someone else. Is probably bad. But that's not
39:02
Speaker 2: like a stretch of just the worst offenses in the NFL.
39:06
Speaker 2: So you might ask why why is it? Well, there's
39:08
Speaker 2: a number of reasons. Over the first ten weeks they
39:10
Speaker 2: were historically bad. I'm not saying they're a good defense
39:12
Speaker 2: right now, but they're just like maybe the twenty fifth
39:16
Speaker 2: best defense, which is all you need with the like.
39:18
Speaker 2: They just can't be historically bad when you have this
39:20
Speaker 2: Bengals offense and you're going up against a horrendous Browns D.
39:24
Speaker 2: But why is the Bengals d trending up? Why? I
39:26
Speaker 2: think it's real, Well, they have two rookie linebackers who
39:29
Speaker 2: were the worst in the NFL over the first ten
39:30
Speaker 2: weeks in Carter Knight. They're playing legitimately better, so not great,
39:35
Speaker 2: but they were unplayable over the first ten weeks. Now
39:38
Speaker 2: they're playing better. They also moved Dax Hill out to
39:42
Speaker 2: the outside. DJ Turner on the other side, has been
39:44
Speaker 2: one of the best corners in the NFL. Hill's played
39:48
Speaker 2: amazingly locked down since he's moved to the outside. Because
39:51
Speaker 2: they had Jeeff what is his name, their new slot
39:55
Speaker 2: corner who's been on the who's on the practice squad,
39:57
Speaker 2: He's been with the organization for like five years. He's
40:00
Speaker 2: come in, played the nickel and played it pretty well.
40:04
Speaker 2: It's enabled Hill went out after the first ten weeks,
40:07
Speaker 2: went outside Jalen Davis. So now their corners are playing
40:12
Speaker 2: really well. Rookie linebackers are playing better. They change some
40:15
Speaker 2: of their fronts. Slayton's playing better with these new formations
40:19
Speaker 2: against the run. They're getting something from Miles Murphy finally,
40:23
Speaker 2: and then you just have Al Golden, who came in
40:24
Speaker 2: as a new coordinator with a bunch of new pieces
40:26
Speaker 2: and started to figure some things out schematically. So like,
40:29
Speaker 2: I do think that the Bengals defense is legitimately improved,
40:33
Speaker 2: which they've shown over the past six weeks, and you're
40:37
Speaker 2: playing one of the worst offenses in the NFL, A
40:39
Speaker 2: defense that doesn't play the same on the road. Could
40:41
Speaker 2: see this being a little bit of an emotional letdown
40:43
Speaker 2: for the Grounds, right, they had that huge win over
40:44
Speaker 2: the Steelers. I don't think they can keep up here.
40:48
Speaker 2: I think the Bengals role So gimme Sincy in the jungle.
40:51
Speaker 1: Tend to agree with that one. So yeah, two from Stuckey.
40:55
Speaker 1: He's on the Bucks minus two and a half and
40:57
Speaker 1: the Bengals minus seven against the Cleveland Browns, and we
41:02
Speaker 1: got Kendra with a shoulder shrug emoji on the Colts
41:06
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half.
41:07
Speaker 3: I second the Bengals. That was gonna be my pick.
41:11
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so.
41:12
Speaker 2: Well let you pick now. Are you playing your flag
41:14
Speaker 2: on the Bengals? All playing on the Bucks minus two
41:16
Speaker 2: and a half?
41:17
Speaker 3: Oh there you go, Okay, I was I was Bengals Panthers.
41:20
Speaker 3: I was gonna go with the Cats. So Hank is
41:22
Speaker 3: my sign Meal.
41:24
Speaker 1: Okay, so then we're gonna switch this. I'm throwing this,
41:27
Speaker 1: just see what it looks like. Throw it in a parlay.
41:29
Speaker 1: We get the Bengals minus seven and a half forty
41:31
Speaker 1: nine Ers plus one and a half, and the Bucks
41:34
Speaker 1: minus two and a half at plus five seventy nine
41:38
Speaker 1: over on Draft Kings. That's not the official two Kings
41:40
Speaker 1: and a Queen parlay, but just in case you were
41:42
Speaker 1: curious over on Draft Kings, though.
41:44
Speaker 2: The chaptains is gonna matter. The NFL will make sure.
41:47
Speaker 2: I thought the people think all these games were fixed,
41:49
Speaker 2: they're not. But the people that do think the games
41:51
Speaker 2: are fixed, then, like the confused theorists and like the scriptwriters,
41:54
Speaker 2: the NFL made out last week because everything that needed
41:58
Speaker 2: to happen for drama did. Like the Ravens beat the.
42:01
Speaker 3: Packers, except now no DK in that game.
42:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, no DK is huge. But the Browns beat.
42:08
Speaker 1: The Steelers off the script.
42:11
Speaker 2: Yeah he went off script brown. So Browns beat the Steelers.
42:15
Speaker 2: Ravens beat the Packers, keeps the AFC North Race down.
42:18
Speaker 2: At the Sunday night football game. You even had the
42:21
Speaker 2: Falcons beat the Rams, where now that could that game
42:25
Speaker 2: could matter? You had the Bucks and the Panthers both lose,
42:29
Speaker 2: so now that game matters. What else, Oh, you have
42:33
Speaker 2: the Seahawks win, the forty nine Ers win, so that
42:37
Speaker 2: game is for the division and for the one seed.
42:39
Speaker 2: So like everything that possibly that they needed to happen
42:43
Speaker 2: because there was a path where Week eighteen was whoa, like,
42:47
Speaker 2: this is going to be bad and bleak, but they
42:50
Speaker 2: had everything go right that could have. Now there's still
42:53
Speaker 2: some bag games. There are still gonna be twelve backup
42:54
Speaker 2: quarterbacks that we have to watch. The Sunday afternoon slate
42:57
Speaker 2: is going to be pretty sad, and there's some games
42:59
Speaker 2: that you just bet right now. I mean you can
43:01
Speaker 2: if you have info or have a strong but like
43:04
Speaker 2: the rams, like based on Seattle for the forty nine
43:07
Speaker 2: hours rears old, it's probably what's going to determine if
43:09
Speaker 2: they rest their starters. The Eagles, how are they gonna
43:12
Speaker 2: wrest their start? There's a lot of like unknowns. Now
43:14
Speaker 2: there's gonna be some line moves, so we'll we'll recap
43:19
Speaker 2: everything and update everyone where things stand on Friday this week.
43:23
Speaker 2: That's we have New Year's Eve Wednesday and Newyear's Date Thursday,
43:25
Speaker 2: so or second episode this week will be on Friday.
43:27
Speaker 1: Right correct. Let's wrap with our Tuesday primer courtesy of
43:32
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. It is live now over at Action network
43:36
Speaker 1: dot com. Evan, welcome to the show. Do you think
43:39
Speaker 1: the cat was a sign that we should be on
43:42
Speaker 1: the Panthers this week?
43:44
Speaker 5: I like the Bucks, so I'm gonna say no. But
43:46
Speaker 5: normally I would say sad cats. It had to be
43:49
Speaker 5: a sign, but not with this situation.
43:51
Speaker 2: Down to you, No, Hank is a happy cat. It
43:53
Speaker 2: was a Bengals sign.
43:54
Speaker 5: It give me a Jaguar sign too. Let's just be good.
43:56
Speaker 1: Roll spray paint the cat like a Bengal.
43:59
Speaker 4: Come on, can we have.
44:00
Speaker 3: Cat parley this week?
44:01
Speaker 2: MIGHT want to keep you guys like the box.
44:03
Speaker 3: I might do this on my own. I might be
44:05
Speaker 3: on the Lions, dude, I did.
44:07
Speaker 1: I'd like the Lions. I haven't completely dug into that one.
44:11
Speaker 1: I did bet the Jags already, so we could definitely.
44:14
Speaker 3: I saw that pop in from you this morning on
44:15
Speaker 3: the app.
44:16
Speaker 1: We could definitely do that. Yeah, there was an eleven
44:18
Speaker 1: and a half hanging out there. I don't think this
44:20
Speaker 1: line's gonna tilt closer to thirteen, so that was more
44:23
Speaker 1: of a number play all right, Evan, what are we
44:27
Speaker 1: looking at anything that we need to know before we
44:30
Speaker 1: hit Is this the toughest week to put the primer together,
44:33
Speaker 1: by the way I would think it is, Well.
44:35
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you're also adding incentives, milestones, records into
44:38
Speaker 5: the article, plus playoff scenarios. I was up till like
44:41
Speaker 5: two thirty or three because I wanted to get it
44:43
Speaker 5: out the door. It is out the door. We are done,
44:45
Speaker 5: we move on to the playoffs. Just some fun stuff here.
44:48
Speaker 5: So week seventeen and eighteen, dogs of over a full
44:51
Speaker 5: touchdown seven and a half or more are actually plus
44:54
Speaker 5: nine point seven percent return on investment. They are sixteen
44:57
Speaker 5: and fifty three. But it doesn't matter when you're geting
45:00
Speaker 5: that big of a dog. So at the moment, it's
45:03
Speaker 5: and obviously those are closing lines. It'd be Arizona Chargers, Colts, Browns, Titans, Dolphins,
45:09
Speaker 5: really the ugliest of ugly, but you probably just need
45:12
Speaker 5: two or three to come into profit. So that has
45:15
Speaker 5: looked decent last decade or so in the last two
45:18
Speaker 5: weeks of the regular season, and honestly, this is just
45:21
Speaker 5: a fun one. So obviously Chargers rest sitting, everybody completely resting,
45:26
Speaker 5: But Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers ten to zero to
45:30
Speaker 5: one against the spread versus the AFC West, so he
45:32
Speaker 5: has absolutely covered all the numbers and this week he
45:35
Speaker 5: gets a massive number. Here's a great one. The Jacksonville defense,
45:40
Speaker 5: especially rush defense, have not allowed a player to rush
45:43
Speaker 5: for seventy five yards seventy five yards in a single
45:46
Speaker 5: game this year, so they've had eight running backs at
45:50
Speaker 5: sixty plus. They are eight and o to the under
45:52
Speaker 5: so we will see how that moves towards the playoffs.
45:55
Speaker 5: But that's intriguing, and of course I gotta say it
45:58
Speaker 5: Raven Steelers, we always talk about it every time he
46:02
Speaker 5: seems play but the underdog just ridiculous records. Twenty five
46:05
Speaker 5: and seven when Tomlin faces Harbaugh and in the regular
46:08
Speaker 5: season with a line of three or more, twenty four
46:11
Speaker 5: and five against the spread, just stupid, stupid numbers. And
46:14
Speaker 5: we will see without DK Metcalf if the Steelers can
46:17
Speaker 5: keep that rolling.
46:18
Speaker 1: And Lamar Jackson has not been ruled in just yet,
46:22
Speaker 1: so keep an eye on that one. That's another one
46:24
Speaker 1: that I don't feel comfortable betting that just yet until
46:27
Speaker 1: we know what that quarterback situation is going to look
46:30
Speaker 1: like because We're definitely gonna see some movement there. As
46:34
Speaker 1: far as I had asked about totals, is there anything
46:39
Speaker 1: on these teams that are punting to the postseason or
46:43
Speaker 1: the offseason that are not really interested in Week eighteen?
46:47
Speaker 1: Is there anything to be gained here in terms of unders,
46:51
Speaker 1: wacky overs, anything of the sort.
46:55
Speaker 5: I don't really have anything in terms of like the
46:57
Speaker 5: totals themselves this late in the season, but I could
46:59
Speaker 5: take to look down. If there's anything good, I'll at
47:01
Speaker 5: it to the Primer.
47:02
Speaker 1: Evan, thank you so much for all the work that
47:04
Speaker 1: you've done on the Primer throughout the course of the
47:06
Speaker 1: regular season. We'll be sure to check that out when
47:09
Speaker 1: we get the playoff mode as well. That'll do it
47:12
Speaker 1: for today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
47:15
Speaker 1: and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Friday. Right
47:19
Speaker 1: here on the Action Network YouTube page, we talk Week
47:21
Speaker 1: eighteen best bets in the NFL and nominate our two
47:25
Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen Paulay. The last one of the
47:28
Speaker 1: regular season. We'll see you here next time on The Favorites,
47:30
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. A Happy New Year to all.
47:43
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47:48
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47:51
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