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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: The talk station, a twenty eight to fifty five CARCD
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: talk station. Happy Tuesday. I always look forward to this time.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Special things go on on a Tuesday. Here the fifty
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  Speaker 1: five caris some morning show, including this segment. Tune in
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  Speaker 1: every Tuesday at this time to hear Daniel Davis with
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  Speaker 1: a Daniel Davis a deep dive youtitle looking at the
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  Speaker 1: Colonel of Daniel Davis breaking down the situation today in Iran,
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  Speaker 1: the latest in Russia and Ukraine. Welcome back, my friend.
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  Speaker 1: It's always great having you on the morning show, Sir.
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  Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to be here.
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  Speaker 1: Brian, if you don't mind, let's start with Iran. I
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  Speaker 1: know we have talked so many times, and I share
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  Speaker 1: your concern about launching a military strike on Iran. This
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  Speaker 1: is regime change you've outlined many times, how unbelievably explosive,
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  Speaker 1: no pun intended. This would be military bases at risk.
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  Speaker 1: The Iranians have a lot of missiles, they can launch
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  Speaker 1: a lot of targets close by they can hit. It's
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  Speaker 1: going to be real chaotic, it's going to be very bloody,
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  Speaker 1: and we're going to lose a lot of human life
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  Speaker 1: doing this. And of course I back off and start
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  Speaker 1: with the problem that Well, I would like to have
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  Speaker 1: a declaration of war in Congress before we start dropping
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  Speaker 1: bombs and entering regime change. But that pesky constitution is
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  Speaker 1: always going to be in the background. But as I
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  Speaker 1: read the Wall Street Journal today Jared Maslin reporting on
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  Speaker 1: the economic situation going on in Iran, is it possible
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  Speaker 1: that these long term sanctions, which are apparently seriously impacting
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians might be the mechanism to go about bringing
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  Speaker 1: about a resolution for this, Maybe getting some concessions from
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians on missiles, maybe get them to concede on
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  Speaker 1: the nuclear Enrichmond program. What we've been looking for, at
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  Speaker 1: least what we say we're looking for, because basically their
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  Speaker 1: currency has tanked. Shopkeepers can't sell goods at a profit,
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  Speaker 1: people can't afford anything. There is a massive amount of
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  Speaker 1: economic uncertainty because of that looming potential military threat. With
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  Speaker 1: two carrier groups hanging out in their backyard. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of pressure on them, But economically it
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  Speaker 1: is a miserable situation going on Iran right now. Is
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  Speaker 1: this maybe a pathway to a non warfare resolution of
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  Speaker 1: the conflict. I hate to throw it at you that way.
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  Speaker 1: But that's where I am this morning, Daniel.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I got we got to shut off, first of
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  Speaker 2: all and say what is the conflict resolution terms that
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  Speaker 2: we want? And you know, some people claim because that's
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  Speaker 2: some of the terms that are being tossed around is
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  Speaker 2: is no long range missiles, no support for the proxies,
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  Speaker 2: and no nuclear Richmond. But I think that's just a canard.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think that that's the issue at all. I
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  Speaker 2: think that the reason why people are on the on
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  Speaker 2: the side that we're saying that, and a lot of
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  Speaker 2: that comes out of Israel, is because they know that
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  Speaker 2: Iran can't apply abide by those so they're just using
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  Speaker 2: that as reason to show then will when the fails.
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  Speaker 2: Talking they're in Geneva today talking about that, then they
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  Speaker 2: can say, well, we tried everything and now here we go,
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  Speaker 2: we're going to have a regime change. To answer your
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  Speaker 2: direct question about the economics, first of all, it's important
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  Speaker 2: that Best went on before the Congress and explained that
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  Speaker 2: the only reason that they're in such dire economic conditions
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  Speaker 2: today is because we intentionally sank their currency for the
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  Speaker 2: purpose of causing this riot that happened. So we're trying
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  Speaker 2: to do that to bring them to that point. But
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  Speaker 2: the answer is that Iran can't agree to those because
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  Speaker 2: if they do, it's literal suicide and they have acknowledged such.
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  Speaker 2: Because if they don't have long range missiles, they can't
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  Speaker 2: defend themselves and they are utterly powerless to be completely
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  Speaker 2: pulverized and destroyed by Israel or the United States in
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  Speaker 2: a future day. So they can't do that. No matter
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  Speaker 2: how bad the economy is. They will they will, I
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  Speaker 2: mean eat sand if they have to, pardon the pun
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  Speaker 2: but it is a literal life and death issue for them,
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  Speaker 2: So there is no chance that they can agree to that.
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  Speaker 2: And therefore I think we're pursuing the only option, and
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  Speaker 2: there is which Mark Tiessen on Fox News last night said, Look,
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  Speaker 2: this is the issue for Iran, and he said it correctly,
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  Speaker 2: submission or destruction. And I think that's the intent, and
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  Speaker 2: I think he's right on that. I think the idea
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  Speaker 2: is horribly flawed because we're basically sating the conditions for
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  Speaker 2: is the only option. But he's right, that's what we're
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  Speaker 2: offering Iran.
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  Speaker 1: Well indulge me for a moment if I may engage
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  Speaker 1: in fantasy land here, Davis, this they can't capitulate. Does
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  Speaker 1: that spring from the legitimate fear over Israel attacking them?
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  Speaker 1: Does it spring from the religious fundamentalism against Israel Jewish
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  Speaker 1: people generally speaking. I guess I know they instilled the
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  Speaker 1: iatola back in what was it seventy nine? They have
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  Speaker 1: a very fundamentalist religious order going on there. So is
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  Speaker 1: that the predicate for it? Because here's where you need
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  Speaker 1: to indulge me in my fantasy. Let's just say, for
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  Speaker 1: the sake of discussion that they realize that they're over
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  Speaker 1: a barrel economically, they realize that now maybe they're outgun militarily.
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  Speaker 1: They don't want to get into a war period, end
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  Speaker 1: of story, because of all the loss of life. Fine,
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  Speaker 1: let's just say theoretically you could get them to enter
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  Speaker 1: into something like the Abraham Accords, where we want you
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  Speaker 1: to be a nice, let's play together neighbor. Like other
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  Speaker 1: countries who had a predisposition to be against Israel, they've
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  Speaker 1: come into the playground. They're enjoying the benefits of a
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  Speaker 1: comfortable relationship without having to wage war. Listen, that could
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  Speaker 1: be you we don't want to what attack you? We
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: don't want to kick anybody out. We just want you
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  Speaker 1: to not bomb us anymore and live in peace and harmony.
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  Speaker 1: I know it's a pipe dream, but if you could
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  Speaker 1: convince them that, then they wouldn't be giving up anything.
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  Speaker 1: They could still control their country. They just wouldn't be
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  Speaker 1: engaging in proxy wars and fundamental funding terrorism. I know
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  Speaker 1: I'm wrong.
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  Speaker 2: Well, here's the problem with that. Iran wants to do that.
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  Speaker 2: They are pleading with anyone who will listen, to include
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  Speaker 2: this morning, on some some of the shows that are
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  Speaker 2: coming out of the Middle East today. That's why they're
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  Speaker 2: going to Geneva to talk. They still want that very
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  Speaker 2: outcome and they are pleading with President Trump to get it.
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  Speaker 2: The problem is Israel doesn't want that, so they do
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  Speaker 2: because for what lack it or hate it. Israel has
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  Speaker 2: apparently decided that the Net and Yahoo on down. It's
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  Speaker 2: not just him, but they said they cannot live with
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  Speaker 2: Iran existing. So the only thing they would be satisfied
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  Speaker 2: with is the destruction of Iran. And look, Iran doesn't
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  Speaker 2: live to attack other countries. Despite that's what's claimed all
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  Speaker 2: the time, when you look at the actual record, they
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  Speaker 2: never launched any attack directly into Israel until twenty twenty
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  Speaker 2: four in response to what they were attacked, Meaning from
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  Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine up until twenty twenty four, they had
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  Speaker 2: never attacked Israel directly. So this idea of death to
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  Speaker 2: Israel and death to America and all that kind of stuff,
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  Speaker 2: that is a political slogan because they have been attacked,
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  Speaker 2: especially since twenty ten forward by Israel into Iran. So
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  Speaker 2: it's a defensive measure and that's the reality of it.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and of course the argument Israel would make, and
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  Speaker 1: I suppose we along with Israel since it's such a
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  Speaker 1: good friend of ours, is that, well, okay, maybe you
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  Speaker 1: haven't directly attacked Israel, but has Baal and Hamas and
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  Speaker 1: these other terrorist organizations, have you just basically waging a
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  Speaker 1: proxy war using those chuckleheads as your military force?
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  Speaker 2: Right? Absolutely, yes, And that is what a lot of
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  Speaker 2: people claim. But they claim the opposite or the contrary
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  Speaker 2: to that too, and they say that you have been
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  Speaker 2: attacking all of these places here, and we have to
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  Speaker 2: raise these up because like a lot of this happened
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  Speaker 2: in response to Israeli incursion into Leven, and that's where
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  Speaker 2: Hazbola came from. Not just out of nowhere. They came
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  Speaker 2: in as a response to the Israeli incursion, and that
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  Speaker 2: came up, and then the hoo Thies. Of course, they
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  Speaker 2: were attacked by Israel and Saudi Arabia, of course, and
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  Speaker 2: that's one of the reasons there too. So to them,
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  Speaker 2: it's a matter of chicken egg kind of thing. And
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  Speaker 2: both sides think that, well, ours originated first, and then
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  Speaker 2: you came and did this other thing after, etc.
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  Speaker 1: And vice versa.
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  Speaker 2: And so you have a situation right now where both
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  Speaker 2: sides have profound distrust from the other side, and something's
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  Speaker 2: got to change if we're ever going to live in peace,
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  Speaker 2: and both sides have to accept the existence of the other.
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  Speaker 2: That means Iran has to accept the issue existence of Israel,
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  Speaker 2: and vice versa. And right now I don't see either
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  Speaker 2: party willing to do what's necessary, and so war seems
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  Speaker 2: to be the only thing left.
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  Speaker 1: If the United States refocused its effort on Israel, saying listen, Israel,
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  Speaker 1: your hardline stance on eradicating Iran is just it's a
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  Speaker 1: non starter. Look what's happened here, Look what we're doing.
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  Speaker 1: And I would argue, at least I think Daniel Davis
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  Speaker 1: from my perspective, if that were, if this military action
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  Speaker 1: were to occur, and apparently we're going to be involved
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  Speaker 1: with it, we risk destabilizing the Middle East in so
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  Speaker 1: far as wrecking the progress we made with the Middle
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  Speaker 1: East Abraham Accord countries, because I have a feeling that
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  Speaker 1: they don't want this conflict to start either.
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  Speaker 2: You are one hundred percent spot on correct. That is
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  Speaker 2: exactly right. If the United States just used its leverage
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  Speaker 2: on Israel to say, look, I get it, y'all hate
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  Speaker 2: each other. I can understand that. But we're not going
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  Speaker 2: to get into a situation where the US military, a
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  Speaker 2: third of our entire US Navy is a raid right
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  Speaker 2: now and a good portion of our air power throughout
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East to do what Israel wants to do
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  Speaker 2: in Iran. And we're talking about taking the lead, even
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  Speaker 2: not even cooperating, and we are going to be the
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  Speaker 2: ones that take the line's share of casualties. And we
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  Speaker 2: should not take these casualties on something that may not
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  Speaker 2: even succeed, because understand that Iran to succeed has to
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  Speaker 2: just not be destroyed. All they've got to do is survive. We,
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  Speaker 2: on the other hand, have to have a victory, so
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  Speaker 2: our standards are much much higher and much more difficult
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  Speaker 2: to achieve. We should not risk that because it would
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  Speaker 2: destabilize the region. And you are also right on the
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  Speaker 2: fact that I'm talking to Saudi Arabi u a e Qatar,
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  Speaker 2: all these people who have in the tea with Iran
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  Speaker 2: said that they would They don't want the instability that
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  Speaker 2: would come along with that. So yes, there is a
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  Speaker 2: lot of room to do exactly what you said, and
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  Speaker 2: that's what President Trump should do in my view.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, it sounds like a logical and reasonable step or
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  Speaker 1: measure to take before we go into a full on war.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis Daniel Davis Deep Die find his podcast wherever
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: you find your podcast, and of course tune in every Tuesday.
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  Speaker 1: At this time, the Kremlin said, look, we'll hear will
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: halt airstrikes if Zelenski allows the vote, okay, for one
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  Speaker 1: day during the vote, they will halt airstrikes. So it
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  Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be much of a concession, and I
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  Speaker 1: think it's a logical and reasonable thing for them to say.
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  Speaker 1: But meanwhile, Selenski is asking for you the United States
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  Speaker 1: to back security guarantees, and it sounds me like this
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  Speaker 1: is putting the car before the horse, or vice versa.
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  Speaker 1: Some are suggesting I think Donald Trump is suggesting, No,
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  Speaker 1: we need to work out these land swaps. We need
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  Speaker 1: to get the territorial discussions resolved in a discussion over
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  Speaker 1: peace before we can entertain the idea of whatever, if
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  Speaker 1: any security guarantee we're going to be providing in terms
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  Speaker 1: of the negotiation strategy. I'm a little confused on that.
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  Speaker 1: But if we are going to be providing some security guarantee,
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  Speaker 1: I'm thinking, uh, okay, this looks like we're going to
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  Speaker 1: have boots on the ground and we're going to be
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  Speaker 1: trying to keep the peace between Ukraine and Russia on
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  Speaker 1: a going forward basis. I don't want to bite off
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  Speaker 1: that challenge. I think we're a little short on money
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  Speaker 1: generally speaking, and military resources generally. Daniel Davis, so where
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  Speaker 1: is this going if anywhere, sir, Yeah, where.
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  Speaker 2: It's going to is a military defeat for Ukraine and
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  Speaker 2: a military victory for Russia. That's where it's heading because
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  Speaker 2: the West at large, and primarily that means Ukraine and
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  Speaker 2: Europe are almost guaranteed that's going to be the outcome
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  Speaker 2: because they will not agree to the things that Russia
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  Speaker 2: has been saying from twenty twenty two forward April twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty two forward what has to happen to bring this
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  Speaker 2: war to an end, and they've never changed their conditions.
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  Speaker 2: Number one is the territory that you mentioned. Number two
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  Speaker 2: is what they call denocification, demilitarization and no NATO that
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  Speaker 2: those are the things that they say are the core
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  Speaker 2: causes of the war and that they have to be resolved.
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine and Europe are saying we're not going to solve
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  Speaker 2: any of those. In fact, we're going to have a
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  Speaker 2: bigger army at the end than we did at the beginning.
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  Speaker 2: Nobody's going to tell us anything about what's going to
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  Speaker 2: happen with the governing. We'll have our own elections, but
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  Speaker 2: we're going to have everything that we want and no
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  Speaker 2: one's going to tell us differently. And then we want
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  Speaker 2: security guarantees with European boots on the ground in Ukraine,
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  Speaker 2: which is a complete non starter. That's why Russia went
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  Speaker 2: to war in the first place to avoid ergo. They
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  Speaker 2: will never willingly agree to that. So if you can't
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  Speaker 2: even get past that first fundamental point, then the only
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  Speaker 2: option left to Russia is to continue its military operation
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  Speaker 2: until it eventually succeeds, and eventually they will just by
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  Speaker 2: inertia and overall force of numbers. It's a math problem,
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  Speaker 2: and Ukraine in Europe seem oblivious to it.
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  Speaker 1: I don't understand, and this has been the ongoing problem
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  Speaker 1: you and I've been struggling with for a long long time.
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  Speaker 1: Where's this magical new army going to come from? Daniel Davis?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, you just look at the numbers. France and Germany
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  Speaker 2: and uk are the primary people we're talking about here,
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  Speaker 2: and if you took all and I mean all of
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  Speaker 2: their deployable force, you might get sixty seventy thousand. And
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  Speaker 2: are those countries going to completely denude themselves of their
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  Speaker 2: defense capability by putting them on the ground in Ukraine?
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  Speaker 2: I mean that's even theoretical that if they ever got
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  Speaker 2: an agreement, but you see that even numerically, why would
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  Speaker 2: they do that? And how would they afford that indefinitely?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, where's the money going to come from it?
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  Speaker 2: It's irrational even from their perspective. And yet that's where
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: we are.
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  Speaker 1: Well, maybe as long as they had the United States
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: sitting military bases in their backyard, they'll expect us to
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  Speaker 1: be their police force while they send their troops to Ukraine.
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  Speaker 2: Just the thought, well be over put the cubosh on
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: that in Munich for sure, thinking that this is the
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  Speaker 2: reason why what value do we have being a member
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  Speaker 2: of NATO if they don't even have an army to
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  Speaker 2: defend themselves, or US pursuing to a defense treaty, it's
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  Speaker 2: just a Daniel Davis always love talking with you man.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Every Tuesday. Here fifty five KRSD Talk Station, beginning at
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: ay thirty the Daniel Davis Deep Dive again search for
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: his podcast wherever you find yours. I always appreciate the
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: thought phone alist Daniel Davis my friend. We'll talk next Tuesday.
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  Speaker 2: Always my pleasure, Brian, see you next week.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Take care. He forty two Right now fifty five KRCD
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